Li Auto Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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February 26, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for Lee Auto's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. Today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to your host, Kobi Wang, the Head of Capital Markets of Li Auto.

Operator

Please go ahead, Kobi.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good evening and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Li Auto's Q4 and full year 2023 earnings conference call. The company's financial and operating results were published in a press release earlier today and were posted on the company's IR website. On today's call, we will have our Chairman and CEO, Mr.

Speaker 1

Shang Li and our CFO, Mr. Johnny Tier Li, begin with the prepared remarks. Our President, Mr. Dong Hui Ma and Senior VP, Mr. James Liangjun Tou will join for the Q and A discussion.

Speaker 1

Before we continue, please be reminded that today's discussion will contain forward looking statements made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the U. S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, the company's actual results may be materially different from the views expressed today.

Speaker 1

Further information regarding risks and uncertainties is included in certain company filings with the U. S. SEC and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company does not assume any obligation to update any forward looking statements, except as required under applicable law. Please also note that Li Auto's earnings press release and this conference call include discussion of unaudited GAAP financial information as well as unaudited non GAAP financial measures, please refer to the Ahold's disclosure documents on our IR website with the content of a reconciliation of the unaudited non GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures.

Speaker 1

Our CEO will start his remarks in Chinese. There will be English translation after he finish all his remarks. With that, I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Xiang Li. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Now translating for our CEO, Mr. Li Xiang. Welcome to today's earnings conference call. 2023 was a year of accelerated growth for Li Auto. We delivered a total of 376,000 vehicles for the entire year, exceeding our target setting at the beginning set at the beginning of 2023 and also making us the 1st emerging new energy automaker in China to exceed the 300,000 annual deliveries mark.

Speaker 2

Our total deliveries for the 4th quarter reached 131,805 vehicles, an increase of 184.6% year over year. In December, we reached another significant milestone of 50,000 monthly deliveries, setting a new record for Chinese premium car brands. According to China Automotive Technology and Research Center's insurance registration data, in China's NEV market of RMB 200,000 and higher, Li Auto's market share increased from 10.9% in Q1 2023 to 16.0% in Q4, making us a leading Chinese automotive brand by market share. The growth will continue in 2024. I would like to take this opportunity to express our sincere gratitude to all of our family users, business partners and our team for your unwavering trust, support and tireless efforts.

Speaker 2

Moving on to our financial performance. Our scale expansion, effective cost control and increasing operating efficiency have continuously improved our financial performance. Q4 total revenues reached RMB41.73 billion and annual revenues surpassed the RMB100 1,000,000,000 mark at RMB123.85 billion. Additionally, we achieved full year profitability for the first time in 2023, recording a healthy net income of RMB11.81 billion. By the end of 2023, our cash position reached RMB103.67 billion.

Speaker 2

In 2024, the virtuous cycle of our business growth will solidify our long term profitability, cash generation generating capabilities and capital base. This trajectory will further deepen our R and D efforts across products, platforms and systems, ensuring consistent delivery of exceptional products and services to our users in the long run. 2024 will be an unprecedented year of new product launches for D3 Auto beginning in March with the launch of our high-tech flagship and family MPV, Lee Mega. Developed on a pure BOV platform, Lee Mega integrates the latest technological advancements in 5C BOV technologies, smart space and autonomous driving. We also plan to begin mass delivery of 2024 model year LEE L7, L8 and L9 models starting in March.

Speaker 2

You're all welcome to tune into our Li Auto 2024 spring product launch event this Friday, March 1st, where we'll be unveiling more exciting details about the LEMEGA and our 2024 model year L Series. Furthermore, we'll introduce several new models over the course of the year, including the L6 to broaden our product lineup even further. By the end of 2024, we will have 8 models on the market, featuring 4 eREBs and 4 BEVs, forming a highly competitive product matrix and satisfying the diverse needs of our family users. New vehicle launches are only the starting points. Since the initial delivery of our L Series, we have released over 20 over the air updates, operating over 700 features.

Speaker 2

Notably, the official release of our OTA 5.0 upgrades in December last year further enhanced product competitiveness of our vehicles. Moving to autonomous driving. With the latest release of ADMAX 3.0, full scenario NOA now covers all highways and city ring roads nationwide as well as urban roads across over 110 cities. We anticipate to offer City NOA independent of HD MAX in all of China by the end of Q2 this year And it will be delivered to all AD MAX vehicles by NLA. As of today, our users have accumulated around 5 60,000,000 kilometers on NLA.

Speaker 2

During the 10 day Chinese New Year holiday from February 8 to 17, over 220,000 users enjoyed the convenience of NLA covering close to 50,000,000 kilometers of NLA. In terms of sparse space, OCA 5.0 integrated MyntGPT into Lishan Tongxue. MyntGPT is a full scenario multimodallargemodel with real time connectivity.

Speaker 3

This development has

Speaker 2

significantly increased Li Zhongdongzhi's understanding, generating, memorizing and reasoning capabilities. Since its release, there is a notable increase in user engagement in giving instructions and seeking text based information and services through natural conversations. During the 10 day Chinese New Year holiday, the percentage of such natural conversations among all effective communications reached 7.2%, twice the level before OTA 5.0. Amidst our remarkable sales growth in 2023, we accelerated the expansion of our direct sales network. In Q4 2023, we opened 106 new retail stores or over 1 store per day, creating the largest automobile direct sales network in China.

Speaker 2

As of January 31, 2024, we had 4 74 retail stores across 142 cities nationwide. In 2024, we aim to further expand our direct sales and servicing network, targeting 800 retail stores by year end. While expanding our presence in 1st and second tier cities, we also plan to broaden our coverage in 3rd and 4th tier cities. Turning over to our supercharging network. To date, we have over 3 40 supercharging networks in operation, Starting from the Chinese New Year holiday, throughout the entire holiday, we provided family users with free access to Li Auto's supercharging services.

Speaker 2

We delivered 57,000 free charging sessions to Li Auto's users and over 120,000 sessions to all EV users, delivering over 2,810,000 kilowatt hours of electricity. Facing the exceptionally high demand during the holiday season, our superchargers maintained an online rate of over 99.3%, providing uninterrupted access to high quality and efficient charging experience to all users. In 2024, we will continue to accelerate our supercharging network expansion across highways and cities nationwide, targeting 2,000 supercharging stations by year end. On the production front, Li Auto's Beijing Green Intelligent Manufacturing Base went into production towards the end of 2023, ready for volume production of the Mega and subsequent BEV models. With volume production delivery of Li Mega and 2024 model year Li L7, L8 and L9, we expect our total vehicle deliveries for Q1, 2024 to range between 100,000 units to 103,000 units with March delivery exceeding 50,000 units.

Speaker 2

In 2024, we'll continue to learn from the best enterprises, iterate ourselves and surpass expectations as we create mobile homes and create happiness. With that, we'll turn it over to our CFO, Johnny for a closer look at our financial performance.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Lizia. Hello, everyone. I will now walk you through some of our 20 23 Q4 financials. Due to time constraints, I will address financial highlights here and encourage you to refer to our earnings press release for further details. Total revenues in the 4th quarter were RMB 41.73 billion or US12.88 billion dollars up 136.4 percent year over year and 23% quarter over quarter.

Speaker 4

This included RMB40.38 billion or 5 point $69,000,000,000 from vehicle sales, up 133.8 percent year over year and 20.1% quarter over quarter. The year over year increase was mainly attributable to the increase in vehicle deliveries, partially offset by the lower average selling price due to different product mix between the 2 quarters. The quarter over quarter increase was mainly attributable to the increase in vehicle deliveries. Cost of sales in the 4th quarter was RMB31.95 billion or 4 0.5000000000 dollars up 126.8 percent year over year and 18.2% quarter over quarter. Gross profit in the 4th quarter was RMB 9 point 79,000,000,000 or US1.38 billion dollars up 174.4 percent year over year and 28% quarter over quarter.

Speaker 4

Vehicle margin in the 4th quarter was 22.7% compared with 20% in the same period last year and 21.2% in the prior quarter. Excluding the impact of inventory provision related to LiWAN in the Q4 of last year and true up adjustments of warranty reserve in the Q4 of 20 23 based on updated estimates of costs of further claims, the vehicle margin remained relatively stable over the Q4 of 2022. The increase in vehicle margin over the Q3 of 2023 was mainly due to the aforementioned true adjustments of warranty reserve in the 4th quarter. Gross margin in the 4th quarter was 23.5% compared with 20 point 2% in the same period of last year and 22% in the 3rd quarter. Operating expenses in the 4th quarter were RMB6 point 75,000,000,000 or US950.8 million dollars up 82.4% year over year and 27.2% quarter over quarter.

Speaker 4

R and D expenses in the 4th quarter were RMB3.49 billion or US491.7 million dollars up 68.6 percent year over year and 23.9 percent quarter over quarter, primarily driven by increased expense to support our expanding product portfolios and technologies as well as increased employee compensation as a result of our growing number of staff. SG and A expenses in the 4th quarter were RMB3.27 billion or $460,500,000 up 100.6 percent year over year and 28.5 percent quarter over quarter, primarily driven by increased employee compensation as a result of our growing number of staff as well as increased rental expenses associated with the expansion of our sales and servicing network. Income from operations in the 4th quarter was RMB3.04 billion or $427,700,000 compared with RMB133,600,000 loss from operations in the same period last year and up 29.8% quarter over quarter. Operating margin in the 4th quarter was 7.3% compared with negative 0.8% in the same period last year and 6.7% in the 3rd quarter. Attributable to the increase of income from operations and the recognition of non cash tax benefit for the release of valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets.

Speaker 4

Net income in the 4th quarter was RMB5.75 billion dollars or $810,200,000 representing an increase of 2,068.2 percent year over year, an increase increasing by 100 and 4.5% quarter over quarter. Diluted net earnings per ADS attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB5.32 or $0.75 in the 4th quarter compared with RMB 0.25 in the same period last year and RMB 2.67 in the prior quarter. And turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash position remains strong and stood at RMB 103.67 billion or US14.6 billion dollars as of December 31, 2023. Net cash provided by operating activities in the 4th quarter was RMB 17 point 29,000,000,000 or $2,440,000,000 up 2 100 and 51 0.1% year over year 19.2% quarter over quarter.

Speaker 4

And free cash flow was RMB14.64 billion or US2.06 billion dollars in the 4th quarter, up 349.4 percent year over year and 10.7 percent quarter over quarter. As of December 31, 2023, we had a total of 31,000 591 employees. For more information and details of our 20 23 full year financial results, please refer to our earnings press release. And now for our business outlook. For the Q1 of 2024, the company expects the deliveries to be between 100,000,103,000 vehicles, representing an increase of 90.2 percent to 95.9 percent from the Q1 of 2023.

Speaker 4

The company also expects Q1 total revenues to be between RMB31.25 billion and RMB32.19 billion or $4,400,000,000 and $4,530,000,000 representing an increase of 66.3 percent to 71.3 percent from the Q1 of last year. This business outlook reflects the company's current and preliminary view on its business situation and the market condition, which is subject to change. That concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to the operator to start our Q and A session. Thank you.

Operator

Thank Your first question comes from Bin Wang with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Congratulations for the great result. I actually got 2 questions. Number 1 is that you previously mentioned you want to deliver 100,000 versus sales number in the 3rd month this year. And per unit for single products actually can reach more than 30,000 units. A mid current very tough pricing competition, you'll change your guidance if now when you think the monthly volume can reach this 100,000 units.

Speaker 5

And do you provide a breakdown of this 100,000 units by model? And second question is that the company previously Skylight to be the 1st tier in the self driving technology in China. Can I ask what's the difference or gap between the leading players in China such as Huawei and XPeng? And when you feel you can catch up and exceed the position? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Okay. I will take the first question. This is James Zhou Lanjun from Li Auto, SVP of Sales and Service. So very good question, Mr. Wang Bin.

Speaker 6

Our guidance remains unchanged. So we are still talking to sell over 100,000 models by end of this year. So starting from 2024 March, we will commence delivering of the mega and also 2024 year model L9, L8 and L7 models, making our entrance into a brand new product cycle. With the launch and delivery of more competitive new product, we anticipate our monthly deliveries to exceed 50,000 vehicles in March, which is next month and 70,000 in June, so the first half year. So when we hit the 7,000 the 70,000 monthly deliveries milestone in June, the market will have a better understanding of all of our company's assumptions and dedication.

Speaker 6

We encourage you to watch our performance in the coming months. So I will hand over to Mr. Ma to answer your second question.

Speaker 2

We released our OTA-five forty around the end of 2023 and full scale NLA is now available in over 110 cities around China. And based on our statistics, 2 months after the release, the daily active usage for NOA has increased 50% compared to before the OTA. And we have accumulated over 100,000,000 kilometers on NOA since the release. And NOA has helped our users with over 3,000,000 parking maneuvers. AV has avoided over 30,000 accidents for our users.

Speaker 2

All this data and all the positive feedback from users and media are great testaments to our product competitiveness. In the Q2 of 2024, our AD Max models will be delivering mapless capabilities, city NOA in all cities in China and will not be constrained by number of cities and will be delivered to all cars equipped with ADMAX through OTA. In terms of ADPRO, cars equipped with ADPRO, we will also be deploying BEV big large models to upgrade highway NOA features, increasing the ramp experience and lane change experience. So we're very confident to say that 2024, in terms of our AD products and R and D capabilities, we're among the top in China.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tim Tsao with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

So my first question is about the production and potential bottleneck because the Li Auto first quarter volume guidance of 100,000 to 103,000 units implies a very significant ramp in March to 50 ks units or more. So considering several new models are coming to the market at the same time, including mega, L6, C slip of the whole L series, would there be any risk of supply bottleneck into March April? What has the company done so far to ensure the smooth production ramp deliveries while keeping the inventory leak? So that's my first question.

Speaker 2

First of all, we have a lot of great experience in new product launches and ramp up to achieve volume shortly after a product launch. In the 1st calendar month after the launch of L7 and L9 respectively, we have been able to successfully produce and deliver over 10,000 units for each model. And we have collected all these best practices and lessons learned and put them into our system. So whether it's new factories or new employees, they're all able to very easily replicate these success in the past. In terms of new models, on the R and D front, all the new vehicle lines are being developed on schedule.

Speaker 2

And in terms of production, we have already completed the construction of our factories ahead of time, and recruited and trained the relevant product blue collar workers. On the supply front, we have already built the supply capabilities and completed the risk analysis and have created plans and strategies based on the risks identified. And on the planning front, using our new integrated planning system, we have connected supply and demand end to end and have locked down all of the necessary requirements from end to end. 2024 will be a big year for our in terms of new product launches and we're very confident to maintain the consistency and timeliness of our supply.

Speaker 7

The second question is about product planning. After Li Auto's launch of L6 in April, the group's model portfolio with a comprehensively copper segment above RMB250,000 or around US35 dollars So while we also consider to take into the US35000 dollars market anytime soon. That presents a more sizable market for NEV conversion. And separately, is there any tech constraint or disadvantage likely preventing Li Auto from building compact or low price EUV SUV remodel to compete with the local peers? So that's my second question.

Speaker 2

If we look 5 years down the road, we have no plans to launch any vehicles below the RMB 200,000 price point. Because if we think about long term up to 2,030, if we only focus even if we only focus on the market RMB 200,000 just family users, if we were able to take 1 third of that market in China, our total sales will already be more than RMB 1,000,000,000,000. And if you consider overseas by 2,030, this market will create a business close to the revenue of all iPhones sold worldwide combined. So this is huge gold mine that we think we've only mined a very, very small portion. So there is no need to distract ourselves at this point, but rather we would like to focus exclusively on over RMB 200,000 family markets globally.

Speaker 2

And our strategy is to continue to dive deep into this market, create a brand and expand our market share.

Speaker 7

Thanks for sharing all the great colors and congratulations on the great results again. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Yingbo Zhu with Scitech Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

About pricing and volume balance and how we see the profitability and volume increase by adjustment of pricing in different periods? And my question second question is about the following EV models. How we plan after the mega model? Could you please give us more colors? Thank you.

Speaker 4

This is Johnny Invert. For the first question, I think for when we set up the full year sales target, we have already considered about the competition and also the pace we launch our product. So when we consider that, we still what we want to say as before, we will maintain a healthy gross profit margin over 20%, always. And based on the market commentation, the gross margin will fluctuate between 20% to 25% in different quarters. And just like last quarter, I think everyone was worried about the commentation in the Q4, there will be some promotion.

Speaker 4

But for every quarter, there will be some other come out from the supply side and also from like the material price side. So net net, you can see from our Q4, Even we have some promotion in the Q4 that we have more good news from the bond side. So even though our gross margin increased, yes, some compared with the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 2

For the first half of the year, we will be releasing in our March 1 spring event, LE Mega as well as model 2024 model year LE L7, L8 and L9. And also in first half, we'll be releasing the L6. In the second half of the year, as we've communicated before, we will be releasing yet another 3 pure electric SUV models, all standard, comes standard with 5C charging and all wheel drive. And I would like to emphasize those cars are very, very competitive, and they will become the top choice for family users in their respective price segments. 2024 will be an unprecedented product year for Lee Auto.

Speaker 2

By the end of the year, we will have 4 range extended models and 4 very competitive, elect BEV models. A products are all very competitive and they will together serve the needs of our family

Operator

youth. Your next question comes from Tina Hao with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 9

Thanks management for taking my questions and congrats on the very strong result. So I have two questions. The first one is in terms of the BEV, 3 BEV models in the second half of the year. So considering the battery price as well as 5 c charging capability and then initially smaller volume versus your EREV models, what kind of like margin difference should we expect for the BEB models? And then the second question is in terms of the overseas expansion, what is the management's latest thought for overseas sales volume target over the next 3 to 5 years?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Tina, this is Johnny. And for the gross margin, as we mentioned in the previous calls, both for the BEV and the EUV series, the overall blended gross margin will be 25% for both series. So when we start from Mega and then the NAND series, the gross margin will start from the higher to lower. And although we want still to emphasize the product gross margin established when you define your product. It's our products are designed to ensure a healthy gross margin and also balance the customer's demand for the car, for each car.

Speaker 4

And also from the material side, like the battery material, I think it's since the second half of last year, I think it's for us, it's a good timing for to launch our BEV models starting from this year. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Okay, Tina. James, I will take your second question. So first of all, the overseas market is very important to the auto. And we are aiming to start to explore the overseas market and we are accelerating it. So regarding our plan for overseas exports, we remain committed to our direct sales model in overseas market, focusing on building a robust sales network and comprehensive after sales service offerings and infrastructures.

Speaker 6

With the auto's growing popularity globally, we are accelerating the development of opt sales service network and the spare parts supply chains to ensure outstanding service experience for our international customers. And by the way, we have successfully set up operations in Middle East and initiated the recruitment of local sales and service teams in Dubai. And in the first half year this year, we plan to establish dedicated after sales service network in Central Asia and Middle East. By the Q1 of this year, we will commence overseas delivery starting with the introduction of L9 and L7 models in local regions, which by the way, which is also customized for the local environment and the policies, local policies. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ming Sun Lee with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

So my first question is still related to gross margin trend in Q1 and Q2. In Q3, because you are selling the 2023 version of L7, L8 and L9, so your gross margin slightly lower than 4Q, but in the Q2, since you have a full quarter contribution from makeup, so do you expect the gross margin to recover? And also how is the L6 to overall margin?

Speaker 4

Hi, this is John. I think all the factors you mentioned is yes, it's clear for the gross margin. And the company will maintain a healthy gross margin of about 20% for the Q1. And as we mentioned earlier, the company will also maintain a healthy gross margin, which means always about 20% throughout the full year. And for the mega 2024 model of L Series, it will be a positive factor for the gross margin starting from March.

Speaker 4

And our sales will be negative if we want to say to be for the over 20% gross margin. And with our volume growth, it will be a positive factor for the gross margin. Yes. And it's for every quarter, there are some positive and negative,

Speaker 3

Li Auto plans to expand the charging station to 2,000 by the end of this year. What do we expect the total CapEx? Previously, Chairman mentioned the charging station could be a profitable investment project. So when do you expect your charging station can reach breakeven or cash flow breakeven? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Okay. I will take this question, James. So by the end of 2024 and company plans to build a total of 2,000 charging stations, as Hiro just mentioned. And by the end of this year, we will have built more than 7 100 highway supercharging stations covering 70% of the highways in China as well as 90% of the highways in the 4 major economic zones. With the successive launches of BU Way models this year, we have also begun to simultaneously accelerate the expansion of charging stations in cities.

Speaker 6

We anticipate that by the end of this year, the number of charging stations in cities will exceed 1300, so totally 2,000. The company's cash reserves are ample and we have allocated sufficient capital for the construction of charging stations. The company has detailed operating models for the evaluation of each charging station. And by the way, personally, I'm looking after each and every charging station investment. And each station has its own profitability and ROI target.

Speaker 6

From a long term perspective, we are very confident in our charging stations profitability prospect. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Yooqin Ding with HSBC.

Speaker 8

Two questions. The first, we noticed the industry is going through a painful consolidation, while Li Auto booked a record high earnings, many are struggling. How to look at the inflection point of the industry consolidation against the weak car demand and a continuous pricing wall, including Li Auto, which is Li Auto's what is Li Auto's strategy priority list this year? And second question, management do talk about OTA, LOA in more cities and scenarios. When would be the iPhone moment for the autonomous driving development from management perspective?

Speaker 8

And how to read despite of the technology progress, the current autonomous driving market might be running homogenous and lack of revenue model in the near term.

Speaker 2

So as we've always maintained before, we believe in the smart EV industry, there will be a very clear Matthew effect as we fill up the valve and as we'll see in the very few very near future. Here, I'll make a prediction by Q4 this year in the market of RMB 200,000 and above. The top three brands will command around close to 70% of market share, where CR3 will reach close to 70% and we can test this hypothesis by the end of this year. And in order to prevail in this competitive environment, we will continue to focus on user value creation, which will convert into our competitive advantage. So on the product front, we will continue to focus on making all details perfect and delivering the full product experience to our users.

Speaker 2

And on the R and D front, we will invest in our autonomous driving, smart space and high voltage and range extended EV platforms and convert all these investments into user value. With that, our goal continues to be selling 800,000 units this year in 2024 and becoming the top one premium brand in China. And the team is all lined up to be ready to achieve this goal this year. Personally, I believe the iPhone 4 moment for autonomous driving will come in 2 to 3 years. IPhone 4 completely changed people's perception of smartphones.

Speaker 2

The first the iPhone 4 itself may not be perfect, but it encompasses all of the important factors for its success, including industrial design, user interaction, hardware, software and business model. And compare that to autonomous driving with ELF2 and ELF3 reaching scale and being delivered in volume and data continues to accumulate as well as the deployment of AI large models. I believe that autonomous driving will reach an inflection point, reaching an iPhone 4 moment. And maybe all of a sudden overnight, all of the cars equipped with this hardware, maybe 100,000 or even over 1,000,000 will achieve autonomous driving. So for Lee Auto, we continue to invest in making autonomous driving hardware standard for all of our vehicles.

Speaker 2

And we have no plans for subscription of extra charge at the moment. Making autonomous driving set standard will bring us as many users as possible, collect as much data as possible and help us to increase and improve our algorithms and improve the experience for our users. And that creates a very positive cycle.

Operator

As we are reaching the end of our conference call now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Coby Wang for any additional or closing

Speaker 1

comments. Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have any more questions, please feel free to contact the Airtel's IR team. That concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect your line.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Bye.

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