Millicom International Cellular Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 27, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our Q4 2023 results call. This event is being recorded. Our speakers today will be our CEO, Mauricio Ramos our President and COO, Maximo Bombardini and our CFO, Sheldon Bruja. The slides for today's presentation are available on our website along with the earnings release and our financial statements. Now please turn to slide 2 for the safe harbor disclosure.

Operator

We will be making forward looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties and could have a material impact on our results. And on slide 3, we define the non IFRS metrics that we will reference throughout the presentation. And you can find reconciliation tables in the back of our earnings release and on our website. With those disclaimers out of the way, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Maui Souravos.

Speaker 1

[SPEAKER PAULO SERGIO KAKINOFF:] Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. As you likely recall, we set 4 key priorities at the beginning of 2023. We will update you in detail on each of these priorities in the next several slides, but here are the key highlights. 1st, we continue to make very meaningful strides in executing project Everest to improve our operational efficiency across the business.

Speaker 1

During the Q4, we implemented Phase 2 of the project in each of the 9 countries where we operate. The headline is that we are exceeding our own expectations for cost savings. 2nd, in Colombia, the strategy we laid out some years ago on our increased focus on driving profitability are now really paying off in a combined manner. EBITDA was up more than 24% year on year excluding severance and the margin reached 38%, which is another record for this business. This, even as we continue to build our mobile subscriber base.

Speaker 1

We are achieving this while also optimizing our CapEx because we're now harvesting the very significant investments we have made in Colombia over the past several years. As I told you during our Q3 call, we're not done yet in improving Colombia. In fact, our performance in Q4 does not yet reflect the additional actions we have taken in the quarter and in January of this year. So stay tuned for more on Colombia. 3rd, in Guatemala, the strategic initiatives we put in place over the past couple of years to protect our business are also now paying off.

Speaker 1

During Q4, we were able to build on the progress we made throughout the year and we had strong prepaid service revenue growth on a sequential basis compared to Q3, much higher than what we have seen in the last few years. You will recall that we raised prices on our most popular prepaid plans in mid September. The market has reacted positively and we have decided to put through a price increase on all of our remaining plans in early February of this year. So we continue to feel cautiously optimistic about the outlook for top line growth in Guatemala going forward. 4th, Manlati, a regional tower portfolio, will launch the monetization process during Q4.

Speaker 1

Because this is an ongoing M and A process, that's all we can say about this for now. So again, stay tuned on Latin. And finally, here's a combined effect of all these initiatives put together, the punchline, if you will. We are raising our outlook and we're now targeting equity free cash flow of around $550,000,000 for 2024. As a result, for the 3 year period between 2022 2024, the cumulative outlook is now for around $700,000,000 of equity free cash flow.

Speaker 1

Often, you have heard us say that our equity free cash flow for the 2022, 2024 period would be back ended and that 2024 would be the year of the cash flow. We're now ready to deliver on that promise. The strategic initiatives initiated over the past few years, combined with a revamped and reinforced focus on profitability, are making this happen. Now let's review each of these points in more detail beginning with Project Everest on Slide 6. For this, I have asked our COO, Maximo Bombardini, to share with you the key components of the extensive program.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mauricio, and hello, everyone. As many of you recall, Millicom began implementing its efficiency program at the beginning of 2023 and initially communicated an ambition of achieving run rate savings of more than $100,000,000 by year end 2024. Shortly after I joined the company in early September, we increased the scope of savings initiatives in our centralized functions. During Q4, we extended Phase 2 to each one of our country operations, unlocking total savings of more than $250,000,000 And it is important to emphasize that we have already implemented a vast majority of the initiatives that are needed to deliver those savings this year. So the achievability of our targeted savings is not only largely in our control, but also already in the bank.

Speaker 2

You can start to see some of these savings in our Q4 results with EBITDA excluding severance reaching almost $600,000,000 which is a record high for the company. And I'm pleased to tell you today that we are off to an excellent start in the 1st 2 months of the year on both service revenue and profitability. On this slide, we have summarized for you the most important action that we have taken and the areas where we have focused our efforts. I won't discuss of each points, but suffice to say that the efficiency program is not just about reducing headcount. Yes, headcount is an important contributor, and close to 5,000 employees left the Group.

Speaker 2

But as I told you on the Q3 call, we have been reviewing all of our spending: strong control on OpEx, employee recurring cost, contents, external services, real estate optimization, IT and network OpEx. And the huge work on optimizing CapEx has been done too. We invest where and when it has a strong impact on quality and sales. This cost control is backed by an ambitious simplification plan. We are simplifying the legacy of our portfolio and streamlining the IT to make it more flexible and less expensive.

Speaker 2

And even though we are still in February, I'm already beginning to work with the teams to identify the next round of opportunities that will allow us to reduce costs further in 2025 without sacrificing any of the investments that are needed to grow our customer base and revenues and sustain our network quality and market leadership. And one more thing: being back to profitability is a good news for the shareholders, but it is important for the employees and managers too. I feel a strong support to the strategy. Mauricio, back to you. [SPEAKER MAURICIO KALES VAN DEN BROEK:]

Speaker 1

Thank you, Maxime. I want to recognize and thank both you and Atlas for helping us take Project Everest, and please do excuse the pun, into new heights. Atlas has helped make the project far more ambitious, its reach wider and its execution faster. And your leadership in execution, Maxim, has been fantastic. Now let's look at Colombia in more detail on Slide 7.

Speaker 1

As I told you a few moments ago, our plan to improve profitability in our 2nd largest country operation is really beginning to pay off. EBITDA is up more than 24% year on year, excluding severance, thanks to record margins. And as Vaxim mentioned, we optimized CapEx. This drove a very strong increase in OCF in 2023. And we have achieved this while maintaining strong commercial momentum in our mobile and B2P businesses.

Speaker 1

And we also saw improving trends in our home business during the Q4, even though we continue to remain very disciplined in Colombia. The point we're making is that we're beginning to harvest the very significant strategic decisions and investments that we have made in Colombia over the past several years, including the following. 1st, we bought and renewed spectrum that has allowed us to add coverage brand. And we have gained market share despite the arrival of a new and disruptive entrant in the marketplace. The strategic move and its associated investment wave started in 2020 during the pandemic and it is now winding down.

Speaker 1

2nd, over these years, we have deployed tens of thousands of kilometers of fiber. We built state of the art data centers and we retooled our sales force to capture our share of the rapid growth we're seeing for cloud and other digital services from our B2B clients. Again, much of this investment is also behind us. 3rd, and after many years of investing to upgrade and replace our legacy Kubernetworks and to grow our customer base, we implemented a number of commercial initiatives in early 2023 aimed at reducing churn and improving the profitability of our home business in Colombia. Looking forward, we expect to see further improvement in the financial performance of our Colombia business.

Speaker 1

Specifically, our agreement with Telefonica to combine our mobile networks and spectrum portfolios will unlock very important cost, CapEx and spectrum synergies beginning this year. You already saw that at the end of December when we bought 5 gs spectrum in Colombia jointly with Telefonica, thanks to this initiative. And we should benefit from the various actions taken as part of Project Everest during Q4 and in January this year. When we put all of this together, and that is a key point, we see Colombia showing a very significant improvement in equity free cash flow in 2024. In fact, because of these initiatives combined, we expect Colombia will be the biggest country contributor to the year on year improvement in cash flow in 2024.

Speaker 1

And we are targeting that Colombia will be equity free cash flow breakeven this year. With that, all of our country operations are expected to be equity free cash flow positive this year. Now please turn to Slide 8 to look at Guatemala. As you know, our focus over the past year or 2 has been to help bring about a more stable competitive dynamic. The most critical prerequisite for this is to have a level playing field with regards to spectrum and to network.

Speaker 1

As you know, for the last 3 years, our competitor perceived that it had an advantage on spectrum and its attempt to leverage that perceived advantage led to disruptive pricing in the market. As you know, we have now sold for this after completing 2 very successful and transparent spectrum auctions. This has freed up a lot of capacity on our networks and there's now a spectrum parity and we're starting to see more rational pricing behavior in the market. As you may recall, we raised prices on some of our prepaid plans in mid September and we've seen the market react positively to this. As a result, we saw an encouraging uptick in prepaid revenue when you compare Q4 sequentially to Q3.

Speaker 1

This is working out the way we had expected. We have gone ahead and implemented a similar price increase on our remaining prepaid plans in early 2024. So the outlook for Guatemala is improving As we'd all expected, it would while investing in spectrum and network capacity. We're now modestly optimistic as pricing and revenue trends have stabilized, efficiencies from Project Everest are lifting margins and the spectrum we acquired is allowing us to optimize our network investments. So in summary, our plan for Guatemala is beginning to show it is working.

Speaker 1

As a result, we expect Guatemala will be the 2nd biggest contributor to the year on year improvement in equity free cash flow in 2024. Now let's move to Slide 9 on LatAm. As I said during my introduction, we launched the amortization process during Q4. This process is marching on, so there is not much that we can or should say at this point as we're in the middle of active M and A activity. Before turning the call over to Sheldon, I would like to very briefly summarize what we have done to prepare the company for this moment to make it the platform that it currently is to help make 2024 the year of our cash flow.

Speaker 1

First, we invested heavily in network and spectrum. Some of you will recall a time when TIGO was primarily a prepaid mobile operator with a legacy copper network in Colombia. Today, we're market leaders in mobile and we have become one of the top providers of fixed services to both residential and to a growing number of B2B customers. This is a direct result of a very significant investments we have made to deploy fiber and other digital infrastructure across our entire footprint. 2nd, as we evolved through prepaid to subscription based customer relationships and revenue streams, we invested to make sure we could deliver the best possible customer experience and we embrace the use of digital tools to do this in a cost effective manner.

Speaker 1

3rd, these steady investments have helped to fortify the strength of our brand. TECO is top of mind in all of our markets, not only as a leading provider of world class telecom services, but also as an employer of choice, which attracts the best local talent and leads by example by doing business the right way. 4th, we have reallocated capital in a very, very meaningful way by disposing of all of our assets in Africa where we have no scale and by reinvesting to build what is today a number one position in Panama, both in mobile and fixed in just over 4 years. Panama is the most stable and fastest growing country in the region with a dollar economy and a stable industry structure today. And to increase our ownership in Guatemala, our most cash generative operation and also a stable economy with a stable currency and a stabilizing 2 player market.

Speaker 1

Based on our 2024 budget, we expect these 2 stable countries, Guatemala and Panama, where we have deployed most of our capital over the past few years to be the 2 largest contributors to our group equity free cash flow in 2024, again, Guatemala and now Panama. These significant capital allocation decisions over the past few years have helped us create the platform that we have today. And as Maxime explained earlier, we now actively are moving to a cost structure that will help us harvest the fruits of these investments, set colloquially to make the platform now profitable, to drive a material increase in equity free cash flow beginning in 2024 to make 2024 the year of our cash flow. With that, I will hand it over to Sheldon to discuss the financials for the quarter.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mauricio. Now let's look at our Q4 financial performance beginning on slide 12. Service revenue was $1,380,000,000 in the quarter, which was up from $1,280,000,000 a year ago. Excluding the impact of FX, organic growth was 3.2% in the 4th quarter. Our mobile business is up low single digits, while fixed and other services grew mid single digits.

Speaker 3

The faster growth in fixed largely reflects the contribution of large B2B contracts during the quarter. B2B, which includes mobile, fixed and digital services, grew at 19.6%, our strongest growth rate in recent years. Going down further on Slide 13 for the service revenue by country, Guatemala declined 2.3% mainly due to the benefit of the World Cup in Q4 of 2022. Excluding this effect, the service revenue decline narrowed to 0.5% versus last year, the 2nd consecutive quarter of improving revenue trends. Columbia service revenue grew 3.4% in local currency as mid single digit growth in mobile and high single digit growth in B2B more than offset the decline in home.

Speaker 3

Panama service revenue grew 18.9 percent, fueled by large B2B contracts and the strong growth in mobile. Bolivia service revenue grew 0.8 percent with growth in mobile and B2B offset by a decline in home where we continue to prioritize price discipline. This was the first positive quarterly service revenue growth in 5 quarters as we have now fully lapped the prepaid data regulatory impact from August of last year. Paraguay service revenue grew 5% in local currency with all three business units contributing. This rounded off a very strong year for this business in which service revenue grew 7% in 2023.

Speaker 3

Finally, our remaining markets in Central America performed reasonably well. El Salvador performance was flat, but this compares against a robust performance in Q4 of 2022. Okay. Turning to EBITDA on Slide 14. EBITDA of $557,000,000 was up 1.6% year on year from $548,000,000 from a year earlier.

Speaker 3

Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, EBITDA declined 2.2% on a constant currency basis year on year. However, included in Q4 EBITDA were $42,000,000 of 1 off severance costs related to Project Everest, which I'll talk about later. Excluding severance incurred in Q4, EBITDA would have been approximately $600,000,000 and would have grown 5.3 percent organically. Now turning to Slide 15. During Q4 2023, we continued the implementation of the 2nd phase of Project Everest, which resulted in one off severance expenses in all nine of our countries of operations.

Speaker 3

All of the Q4 2,003 figures on this slide have been adjusted to exclude such severance. Guatemala EBITDA was nearly flat. Excluding the effect of the World Cup in Q4 of 2002, EBITDA would have grown 2.6%, marking a notable improvement from recent trends, driven by improved pricing trends in prepaid mobile as well as our cost initiatives. Colombia EBITDA accelerated 24.5 percent organically due to both mobile revenue growth and home price discipline as well as savings from Project Everest. The EBITDA margin was a record 38.4%.

Speaker 3

Panama EBITDA grew 10.8%. As I mentioned earlier, we had a lot of B2B revenue in the quarter and some of this is coming in with lower margins, which is why you see margin decline in year over year. Paraguay EBITDA also grew 10.8% organically and the EBITDA margin expanded to 45.2%. We are very pleased with our performance in Paraguay in the quarter and for 2023 as a whole. Bolivia EBITDA declined 4.6% due to a $3,000,000 regulatory fine attributable to historical year.

Speaker 3

Otherwise, EBITDA was flat year over year. El Salvador EBITDA declined 0.9%. As I mentioned earlier, Q4 of 2022 was a strong quarter, so we had a more challenging comparison there. Nicaragua EBITDA increased 8.4% in local currency with all business units contributing to the solid performance. Finally, for Honduras, which we do not consolidate, EBITDA rose 5.7% in the quarter as well as for the full year, with EBITDA margins of 46.3%, the 2nd highest of the group.

Speaker 3

Now please turn to Slide 16 for an update on Project Everest. During the Q4, we continued the implementation of Phase 2, which involved headcount reductions of approximately 20% on average in each of our 9 countries of operations. This is on top of the almost 40% headcount reductions we previously announced in our headquarter and centrally managed functions. This resulted in $42,000,000 of additional severance costs in the quarter, bringing the full year total to $87,000,000 In addition, as we finalize Phase 2 in the 1st few months of 2024, we anticipate taking additional charges of between $30,000,000 $35,000,000 in the first half of this year. Most of this relates to Colombia, where we executed on our voluntary retirement program in January.

Speaker 3

As a result of all these actions, we now anticipate to realize total savings of more than $250,000,000 from this program. This is more than double our initial ambition. And as Maxime commented, a vast majority of these cost saving initiatives have already been implemented and so we are highly confident in our ability to deliver these savings in 2024. Now please turn to Slide 17 for our usual net debt bridge. During the quarter, net debt declined by $53,000,000 to end Q4 with just under $6,000,000 of net debt.

Speaker 3

The key factors that contributed to the decline in net debt were $39,000,000 of equity free cash flow generation during the quarter, dollars 74,000,000 benefit from our partner's share of the equity capitalization in Colombia and $13,000,000 from having repurchased bonds below par value. During the quarter we repurchased and cancelled $80,000,000 face value bonds. Additionally, we repurchased and cancelled just over another $100,000,000 face value of bonds in the beginning of 2024. These factors were partially offset by $48,000,000 from the revaluation effect of the stronger Colombian peso on our local currency denominated debt, $17,000,000 of taxes related to the carve out of Latti and approximately $7,000,000 of share repurchases and other minor items. Beginning in Q4 2023, we have amended our definition of leverage to conform with our most common practices amongst our peers.

Speaker 3

We now define leverage as the ratio of our net debt over the latest 12 months of EBITDA after leases. And on this basis, leverage ended Q4 at 3.29x, down from 3.32x at the end of Q3. Now please turn to Slide 18 for a look at our equity free cash flow in 2023 compared to 2022. Equity free cash flow in 2023 was an outflow of $18,000,000 excluding $17,000,000 flat to carve out taxes. And this compares to an inflow of $171,000,000 excluding Africa, in 2022.

Speaker 3

The changes year on year are explained primarily by the following items. On the negative side, we had $143,000,000 increase in spectrum payments to acquire new spectrum in the 2.6 gigahertz and 700 megahertz band in Guatemala and to renew our 1900 megahertz license in Colombia. $117,000,000 decline in EBITDA from continuing operations primarily due to $106,000,000 of one off expenses related to the organizational restrictions and to an adverse rulings in Colombia as well as increased competitive intensity in Guatemala and $71,000,000 increase in finance charges due to an extra $23,000,000 semiannual coupon on the Guatemalan COMSEL bonds issued in January 2022 higher rates on variable rate debt, primarily in Colombia and commissions on the purchase of dollars in Bolivia.

Speaker 1

On the positive side, we have the

Speaker 3

following items: $84,000,000 reduction in tax payments due to lower taxable profit in 2023 and the impact of a $40,000,000 tax amnesty in 2022 $50,000,000 reduction in working capital due to collections on receivables from a large B2B contract in Panama as well as the effect of severance and legal ruling expenses not yet paid. And $26,000,000 reduction in cash CapEx, reflecting lower levels of commercial activity and investments in our home business unit, especially in Colombia and Bolivia. Now please turn to Slide 19. As we've announced today, we are targeting equity free cash flow of around $550,000,000 in 2024. This implies free cash flow of around $700,000,000 for the 2022 to 2024 period, which compares to our previous 3 year target of around $600,000,000 that we communicated in December.

Speaker 3

Underpinning the increased target and the stronger equity free cash flow outlook in 2024 are higher expected savings from Project Everest that we discussed earlier in the presentation, lower expected capital expenditures and spectrum spend, as well as the strong start to the year that we are seeing in January February that Maxime indicated earlier. This outlook for free cash flow generation puts us back on track to bring leverage down below 2.5x by 2025. This target excludes any cash proceeds and related taxes stemming from the potential Lati transaction and excludes cash proceeds from the separate Terra transaction we announced in Colombia. With that, we're now ready to answer your questions.

Operator

Thank you, Sheldon. We'll now begin the Q and A session. And as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please let us know by emailing us at investorsmillicom.com and we will add you to the queue. Our first question is coming from Marcelo Santos at JPMorgan. Marcelo, line is yours.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning to all. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask 2. The first is regarding the outlook for Colombian margins where you reached a new record.

Speaker 4

What's the ambition here? And aren't margins a bit abnormally low because you're not adding so much broadband ads. So how how what's the impact of, you're more like, I imagine in the future you want to add more ads. So if you were back to the normal pace of ads, what would be the impact on margins? And the second question is on Project Everest, I imagine part of those costs were already cost savings were already reflected on 2023 numbers.

Speaker 4

So what's the incremental cost saving of 2024 versus 2023? I understand there's a run rate, but what should we see as incremental savings versus what was already reported in the year? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you,

Operator

Marcelo. As usual, let me take Colombia a little bit big picture first

Speaker 1

and the outlook for Colombia. And then, of course, I'll hand it over to a combination of Sheldon and Maxine who can give you the operational CapEx and financial details on Project Everest. Listen, on Colombia, the outlook has dramatically improved since back in the summer when we're dealing with a capital infusion and a ton of uncertainty around whether we would be able to put together or not the final details around the combination of our network with Telefonica. Over the last couple of years, as you know, we've been able to invest in that 700 megahertz network, which has proved to be phenomenal for us to gain mobile market share volume. Pricing has become more stable as the new incumbent has realized that that is a better strategy for them to grow revenue in the marketplace.

Speaker 1

And of course, we've put a joint network with Telefonica that has allowed us to buy spectrum together. So we're already beginning to see the improvements on Colombia. All of these combined, a more rational pricing market and our ability to combine network and spectrum with Telefonica, The pickup in volume that we have had as a result of the 700 megahertz and now significant savings from Everest and efficiencies coming from Everest make the outlook for Colombia quite positive. And that's why you heard us say during the call that we believe Colombia going forward can deliver a lot more and as a matter of fact it's a country as you heard us say many, many times that was not making equity free cash flow. And in 2024, we're aiming for breakeven or positive and that makes it the largest contributor to our equity free cash flow swing.

Speaker 1

Now Everest in its revamped strengthened form also had an impact in Colombia and I'll hand it over to Sheldon and Maxim to give you more details.

Speaker 5

I'd like to make just a few comments. Just on Colombia, first of all. Look, you would have seen in our in our subsequent events of our of our of our earnings release that we had we'd also just implemented a new voluntary separation plan in Colombia here in the in the just launched in January. We've incurred about $17,000,000 of costs related to that so far, as that's ongoing. But look, I think what I'm highlighting there is that that just builds in extra cushion here for us on margin on that business, to absorb things like you're saying if we accelerate more on the home side.

Speaker 5

So so I do feel like, you know, that that's the severance program or that separation program plus other initiatives going in place in terms of simplification and you know, on the margin side to, you know, to absorb or pick up on the, you know, on the home. On Everest, in terms of how we're exiting the year, look, we're not being sort of specific, maybe as we had been on some of the other programs. I would just would just highlight the following. I think what's important to highlight is, is really where we're exiting the year on, you know, on an EBITDA basis from, you know, on a run rate. You can see if you add back the severance charges that we had here in Q4 of about $42,000,000 our EBITDA for the quarter was just under $600,000,000 like $5.99 You know, that's a good reflection of sort of, you know, the run rate of the business as exiting the year.

Speaker 5

It was 2,400,000,000 on a run rate basis. If you annualize that, that does not reflect all of the opportunities yet that we're still have to implement. And we did mention a lot of that. So, I will expect to see further opportunity on from Everest rolling into the numbers in 2024 to benefit the EBITDA line as well as service revenue growth, which we all anticipate as well for the business.

Speaker 1

Okay. Tim, anything to add to that?

Speaker 2

I just can add a few comments, just to explain why we increased the run rate saving on project Everest. I joined the company in September. We started immediately with the team to reduce the headcount at the headquarter. And then we increased the scope of this headcount reduction. But as you can imagine, we cannot execute everything immediately.

Speaker 2

So most of it have been done during the Q4, but part of it is, still ongoing. That is the first point. The second point is that there were, there were many contracts in which commitment till the end of 2023 that we've cut, but the full effect will come later, will come in 2024, including important contents contracts and subcontractors. All the effects of the simplification of the way we work, the way we organize the company, the process will take full effect in 2024. And many other, I would say, smaller items such as the way we organize advertising, the way we manage the roaming, the way we optimize the real estate.

Speaker 2

Everything has been dealt during the end of 2023 but you will see the full effect in 2024. That is the reason why the average saving we are quite comfortable with the figures that we've discussed because most of them are already as we said in the bank And we have still room for maneuver.

Speaker 1

Overall, Marcelo, it feels like Colombia is now well understood and under control. Pricing is more stable. We got network and capital synergies, spectrum renegotiations are behind us. We have the ability to work on spectrum Telefonica. So it really is a more positive outlook in Colombia overall.

Operator

Thanks, Marcelo. Next, we're going to go to Fanny Kanemuri at HSBC. Fanny, line is yours.

Speaker 6

Thanks everyone for taking my questions. So the first one is on your free cash flow guidance. So when we met last time during the Q3 conference call, it was around you had a cumulative guidance of $500,000,000 Now you have increased it to almost $700,000,000 All the is all the incremental guidance coming from organic growth due to project Everest or is there some kind of inorganic contribution? And can you also talk about one of the any one off impacts like the legal case with Telefonica that the recent New York which has given? That's the first question.

Speaker 1

So as you can imagine, we imagined yourself that there would be some questions around this rebound guidance. So we're going to tackle it 2 ways to give you a holistic response to you, Fani and to everyone on the call who surely have the same kind of questions. One is where each one of the big contributors to equity free cash flow pickup are coming from. And this will be consistent with my prepared remarks. I'll give you more detail on that.

Speaker 1

Then Sheldon will give you a little bit more Maxime will further ratify that with the operational and Everest view on this. So you get a holistic answer to this and kind of lay all your questions. So number 1, in terms of where we see the equity free cash flow coming from, I already addressed Colombia, so I'm not going to repeat. Colombia is a meaningful contributor to our swing in equity free cash flow for the strategic reasons that I just mentioned and for the results of the projects that allow Colombia to grow in margins and have more equity free cash flow productions. I'm not going to repeat those because we've addressed them significantly.

Speaker 1

The 2nd largest contributor is Guatemala. For the last 3 years you have seen us have to invest in the density of the network in order to quite frankly defend our market share. We also have had to invest in spectrum in order to be able to have a better network experience and spectrum parity. And we've seen pricing pressure as a result of the perceived lack of spectrum or network parity. That has changed dramatically over the last two quarters.

Speaker 1

We've been able to buy spectrum. With that spectrum, we're now able to optimize the network. And as a result of that, we're no longer investing in spectrum and the investments in the networks can be optimized in Russia going forward. And as I said in the prepared remarks, we have a more stable rational pricing environment. So as a result of that, Guatemala is significantly coming back to growth.

Speaker 1

And you layer on top of that margin expansion as a result of Everest on a revamped way. So in synthesis, Guatemala is also working. So we've really put Colombia under a controlled environment, growing environment, the same with Guatemala. And those are our 2 largest markets. But if you add to that Panama, and you recall from my prepared remarks, we were not in Panama 4 years ago.

Speaker 1

We're now number 1 in Panama and it is our 2nd largest contributor to equity free cash flow in 2024, right next to Guatemala as the number one contributor. So you put these three contribution then you add on top of that Everest and the increased bolder ambition on Everest and you get a view for why 2024 is the year of cash flow. And if you look at this holistically over the last 6 months, once we were able to strategically start showing the work of the last few years working out in Colombia, working out in Guatemala, we were able to really focus on Everest and increasing Everest. And the methodology, the challenge and the support and the execution that Atlas and Maxim brought into the team came at the right perfect timing because the platform changes were now ready for that profitability boost. And that's why I publicly said thank you because the timing was perfect and the methodology and the execution was really good.

Speaker 1

So that's an additional element to this free cash flow revampment ambition. But we've also as we've also said before, are now in a lower spectrum spend environment. 20222023, as we always said, were the years in which we will have to renew spectrum in Colombia by spectrum. We've done that 5 gs in Colombia with Telefonica. We bought twice in Guatemala.

Speaker 1

So going forward, we're looking at more normalized views on spectrum. And of course, we've invested heavily on Lati. And as I said earlier, we are now more in the monetization phase of Latti, but that was an investment that happened. When you put it all together, it comes into 2024 being the year of our cash flow. Now with that sort of big picture, I'll hand it over to Sheldon to give you details and Maxime to show you the good stuff that we're doing on margins and efficiencies.

Speaker 5

Sure, Ben. I think your main question is sort of how we, why the increase of guidance kind of from the time period of December until today. Look, I'd say of this. I think there probably was some conservatism in what we said in December, as we were still had a lot of these plans in flight and was trying to do a lot of stuff get implemented. I think Maxime mentioned a lot of the things that he sort of brought to bear when when he started reviewing and and getting involved in sort of the Everest activities.

Speaker 5

And and you can see the upgrade and what we've done around the Everest ambition from sort of the 135,000,000,000 we talked about at Q3 to like the, you know, over 250,000,000,000 today is really tantamount to all those, you know, all those things we were doing in Q4. So, you know, I think we were a little bit cautious as we were as we're sitting in December. I think once we had the opportunity to see sort of how all that made itself out in our numbers for financial results for the full year, plus the start we had at the beginning of year in January and what we see here in February has given us the confidence to raise that outlook and raise the numbers to provide what we said to you in the results today.

Speaker 2

And just, I think if I if you allow me, I can rephrase your question, which is in a way, is the cash generation for the company something viable? And just to complement the words from Mauricio and Sheldon, I would say there are 5 good reasons that I trust will support the cash generation for the medium and long term. The first one is the way the company works. We are changing the way the company works by simplifying many, many things. And you know that by simplifying, you are saving costs, you are more efficient, more flexible.

Speaker 2

That is the first item. The second one is the one that we mentioned many times, the cost structure. It will not be the same anymore. On many topics, I will not enter into the detail that you know. The third one, which is probably undervalued, is the network optimization.

Speaker 2

We started a huge work with the contribution of Atlas on simplifying and optimizing the mobile network and the home network. And on top of that, we will have the benefit of the network sharing in Colombia. That is a huge benefit both on spectrum cost, efficiency coverage, quality and cost. The 4th one, it is something that is not easy to show, but that is the commercial initiatives that we are launching in all the countries. And I've been very impressed by the commercial team of TIGO on both B2C and B2B.

Speaker 2

They are really top guys and there are many things that we can do with the strong assets that we have. And then the 5th item is something which is very simple and I would say it is pure mathematics. It is the deleverage of the company, deleveraging the company, we will improve the cash generation.

Speaker 1

Hopefully, Fani, that gives you the strategic, financial and operational view. And if that is convincing, then just sit tight as we deliver it.

Speaker 6

Sure. Just so my second question is regarding the pricing environment in Guatemala. You said it was becoming much more stable. So are you seeing the competitors also raising prices? Or do you think that your network better network is helping our retail subscribers and increasing your ability to raise prices?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Aksim, do you want to take that one and provide a fresh view?

Speaker 2

I would say optimistic and cautious. We are back to a situation which is quite nice. As probably Sheldon said before, the compares are not very easy because we had the World Cup effect 1 year ago, but we increased price. The KPIs are good. We have a good team there.

Speaker 2

The situation is, I think, after a trouble period stabilized and now we are with the government and everything going well in the country. So, I would say reasonably optimistic on the future of Guatemala and as you can imagine, we are spending a lot of time with the team there to be sure we have the right commercial positioning, the right network at the right place and that all the investments that needs to be made are made.

Speaker 1

Actually speaking, as you know, we raised prices in September of last year. That created a more rational marketplace. So those price increases have stuck and we're doing a little bit more at the beginning of this year because we believe the environment is a lot more stable with the network parity and the spectrum parity that we now have. So we are I think we've used the words modestly, cautiously optimistic about Guatemala. But we also have the ability now to rationalize the network, which Maxime alluded to.

Speaker 1

So Guatemala is now the cash flow producer that we all know it is.

Speaker 6

Perfect. Thanks everyone.

Operator

Thanks Fanny. All right. Next we're going to go to Sumit Datta at New Street Research. Sumit?

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi, everybody. Thanks very much for letting me ask a question. Congratulations on the performance. A couple of things, please.

Speaker 7

Maybe just sort of pulling the conclusion together on equity free cash flow. It sounds like there's nothing particularly unusual in the 2024 guidance. And so should we think of the $550,000,000 as a floor number going forward? It doesn't strike me that we should think anything different, but I'd be interested in your interpretation. I wondered if there was anything unusual in working capital, if Spectrum was going to be particularly low.

Speaker 7

So some sort of detail there that isn't obvious, but otherwise, I'd be interested in your sense looking beyond 2024? That's the first question. Maybe leave it there and I'll return to a follow-up, please.

Speaker 1

So, yes, no, no. So, you're making everyone here very, very, very anxious with your very smart way of

Speaker 5

asking for future guidance. It's

Speaker 1

really good. I can, Michel is not in the room, but I can hear him just trembling there. Right. Let us answer 2 fold. 1, you know, kind of, we'll provide guidance beyond 2024 at the right time.

Speaker 1

For now, we're focusing on cementing that 2024 and I think is the right focus for us. But I will say just a little bit to make the team a little bit uncomfortable. It is sustainable and it can be grown because we've now on spectrum reached levels that we think are more noble. As I said before, 2022 and 2023 as we always said were the years of high spectrum spend and down that significantly both in Colombia with the renegotiations and Guatemala with the acquisitions. We now have a joint venture in Colombia that allows us to tackle Colombian spectrum in a much more efficient way.

Speaker 1

The cost structure changes that Maxim has alluded to and has been instrumental in putting in place our long term cost structure so the platform becomes more profitable. And all of our countries are equity free cash flow positive. Colombia has seen the darkest moments over the last couple of years and we've been able to sort it out. Colombia seems on a track to be sorted out. Guatemala already alluded to.

Speaker 1

We defended our market share. On the prior question, I was simply going to add our market share remains the same. Pricing is stable. We got spectrum parties. So Colombia seems on track and Panama is everything we expected it would be when we acquired those 2 businesses 4 years ago.

Speaker 1

So without giving you specifics, we are positive. This is sustainable equity free cash flow levels and growth.

Speaker 7

Okay, helpful. Can I just turn to the top line then? There was a nice flick from the B2B contract in Panama. I think underlying revenue growth is maybe running at 2%, give or take. How do you think about that looking forward?

Speaker 7

And again, not looking for numbers, but in terms of home, I think we may be sort of flat to down slightly underlying mobile growing a little bit, B2B is lumpy. But just thinking how you think about the sort of overall revenue mix component and if you can, on the ability to sort of raise that current run rate of growth looking forward? Thank you.

Speaker 5

I'll give it a big picture

Speaker 1

and Maxime can definitely and please add to that. We're still on? Yes. Okay. So our camera went dark.

Speaker 1

So as long as we're still on. So listen, postpaid on mobile is driving a lot of growth, both in terms of additions and in terms of pricing and you've seen that particularly in Colombia and Panama. But prepaid is also coming back particularly in Guatemala. And we're also seeing improving trends in Bolivia and Mobile. Home, a continuation of what we said in the last couple of quarters, we're being a lot more price disciplined and maintaining installation fees.

Speaker 1

It means lower volume as you see in Colombia and in Bolivia, but it means sustained ARPU and sustained revenue on home. And I think that's the right approach and I think Maxim and Atlas and ourselves view eye to eye on that. And B2B as you've seen is delivering with both the digital cloud products but also new contracts that we are achieving particularly in Panama. So we're focused on the top line in that manner. And Maxime, I can't really see you on the screen, but if you have anything to add, just shout.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think I am still on the screen for me at least. No, I would just add some comments on the home business. The home business was a bit in a flattish situation and we started working on something quite simple, which is to upgrade very significantly the capacities of the HFC networks. We are lucky because the quality of this HFC network in most of the geographies is good and with limited CapEx, we are able to very significantly increase the bandwidth we can deliver. So, from time to time, we have to deliver also a new CPE to the customer.

Speaker 2

But that is something that we pushed on all the geographies where there is a need. And together with the revamping of some offers, we are able to be really competitive on the markets with a very low capex intensity to deliver something which is drastically different from the past. And that together with the discipline that Mauricio mentioned, just to avoid to put capex in a country or in a situation where the churn is very high. We are monitoring the payback of the subscribers, sorry. And I would say we are reasonably optimistic on what we can do with the 14,000,000 households that we have passed in HFC.

Speaker 2

And on mobile, nothing to add to what Mauricio said, things are going well in most of the geographies.

Speaker 7

Got it. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Sumit. All right. Next and I think this will be our last question is coming from Eduardo Ruby at UBS. Eduardo?

Speaker 8

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Two questions from my side. First, in terms of capital allocation, can you please compare how you evaluate allocation between debt to repurchase and stock repurchase? And second, can given a debt to repurchase and current rate and FX environment, what figure should we expect for financial expenses going into 2024?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 1

The first one Eduardo I'll take and then I'll hand it over to Sheldon for the second one in all more detail. Our capital location methodology, as you can imagine and as we've said a number of times, is basically how it is return oriented with a view to strategic investments as well, meaning stuff that has long term return on capital. At this point in time, with our growing cash flow and our leverage coming down to the state of 2.5 sooner than we had expected, we continue to view debt reduction as the highest return to our shareholders. So that's where our current focus is on. And that's all I'll say on that because I think that is probably the most productive answer we can give you.

Speaker 1

And on the details on question number 2, I'll hand it over to Sheldon.

Speaker 5

Sure. I would just highlight that we yes, we expect sort of finance charge improvements this year, particularly as we deploy sort of the cash flow generation that we've highlighted in terms of debt reduction. I'm not going to give you specific guidance on it, but absolutely you're going to be looking for improvements there you know, for the year, and you can kind of do some math. So you can sort of forecast how, you know, how that, that 550,000,000 of equity free cash flow will come through the year and, kind of the interest rate savings associated with it.

Speaker 8

That's okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.

Speaker 5

Yes, Eduardo.

Operator

Thanks, Eduardo. All right. So that wraps up the Q and A. Maui, so back to you for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Sure. Thanks to Michel, Michel and Maxine for participating and for the entire TIGO team to make this come through. Thank you all for joining us today. As you can see things are coming together after a lot of work by a lot of people. Colombia is under control and with an improved outlook.

Speaker 1

Guatemala indeed is under control and with an improved yet cautiously optimistic outlook. Panama is turning out to be what we expected it would be when we bought the asset and we've allocated capital to Guatemala and Panama. We're happy with it because those are our 2 largest cash flow producers. Everest, which is now revamped, increased, broaden, is giving us a cost structure that we think will make our platform a profitable platform. And this is a warning that Maxime and I and the team speak about a platform that makes it profitable.

Speaker 1

We've now seen the worst of the spectrum renewals and the spectrum costs. So going forward, we're looking at more normalized spectrum spend as we anticipated, and we're looking forward to Lati and our ability to monetize some of that. When you put it all together in a cost structure that we think can give us increased margins and sustainable profitability, all of that leads to 2024 being, as we've often said before the year of our country. And thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Millicom International Cellular Q4 2023
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