Root Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 28, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Dine Brands Global 4th Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Matt Lee, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to Dine Brands' 4th quarter fiscal 2023 conference call. This morning's call will include prepared remarks from John Payne, CEO and Vance Chang, CFO. Following those prepared remarks, Tony Marulejo, President of Applebee's and Jay Johns, President of IHOP will also be available to address questions from the investment community during the Q and A portion of the call. Please remember our Safe Harbor regarding forward looking information. During the call, management will discuss information that is forward looking and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results to be different than those expressed or implied.

Speaker 1

Please evaluate the forward looking information in the context of these factors, which are detailed in today's press release and 10 ks filing. The forward looking statements are as of today, and we assume no obligation to update or supplement these statements. We will also refer to certain non GAAP financial measures, which are in our press release and also available on Dine Brands' Investor Relations website. For calendar purposes, we are tentatively scheduled to release our Q1, 2024 earnings before the market opens on May 8, 2024, and to host a conference call that morning to discuss the results. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Dine Brands' CEO, John Payton.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On today's call, I will share Dine's Q4 and full year 2023 results. I'll discuss our strategy to increase the pace of restaurant openings, share the current outlook for our brands, and Vance will discuss in detail our financial results, capital allocation plans and provide guidance for 2024. 2023 was a year of significant work in progress for Dine. First, Applebee's and IHOP both delivered another year of positive comp sales growth.

Speaker 2

For Applebee's, 2023 was the 3rd year of consecutive positive comps. 2nd, we generated year over year EBITDA growth. 3rd, we integrated Fuzzy's into our system, realizing our long term objective to add an emerging high growth potential brand to the Dine portfolio. We opened our 8th IHOP Applebee's dual branded restaurant internationally, gaining experience and knowledge as we contemplate introducing this concept in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And finally, we refinanced our debt while returning $210,000,000 back to equity and bond investors. Of course, our success in 2023 would not have been

Speaker 3

focused on what they do best,

Speaker 2

so did we. As our franchisees focused on what they do best, so did we. We stayed focused on our recipe for growth, which is designed to drive long term sustainable value creation for our brands, for our franchisees and for our investors. Throughout 2023, we largely completed investments in technology to drive efficiencies and improve the guest experience. We leveraged our resources and scale to drive revenue and EBITDA growth, and we introduced menu innovation and marketing campaigns that drove traffic at IHOP and established a pipeline of new menu items and innovative offerings that will roll out this year to Applebee's.

Speaker 2

As we advanced our innovation agenda, we did so with the needs of our guests top of mind. During the year, we found that guests limited their discretionary spend in response to economic pressures and that this value conscious behavior continued in the Q4. While this certainly creates challenging and dynamic market conditions, it also allows us to leverage our expertise in delivering exceptional value. Our brands are known for delivering abundant value and we are able to meet the guest at the right intersections even in a price sensitive environment. We successfully built our limited time offerings and other offers throughout the year to ensure our promotions were highly visible and appealing to our guests.

Speaker 2

That's why it's no surprise that our 2023 top performing campaigns included Applebee's Dollarita and All You Can Eat Wings and IHOP's Kids Eat Free and All You Can Eat Pancakes. We expect that the consumer will remain cautious in 2024 and we're planning for it with a compelling calendar of LTOs and value driven promotions across our brands. We know our guests and our strategy is grounded in consumer insights that differentiate us in the market and deliver an exceptional experience for our guests. In addition to our focus on driving traffic, we'll also place particular emphasis on strengthening our development capabilities. As we recently announced, Scott Gladstone has stepped into the newly created role of Chief Development Officer and will coordinate our development strategy.

Speaker 2

We are thrilled to have Scott in this role. He's a dine veteran who knows our business inside and out from his time at Applebee's as well as his work in strategy, business analytics and consumer insights. Scott will continue to serve as the leader of our international business. I'll discuss our development strategy and Scott's work to build out our development capabilities in more detail later on in the call. So with that, I'll walk through our key financial highlights.

Speaker 2

In 2023, we generated $256,000,000 of EBITDA, which was up from $252,000,000 in 2022. In Q4, our EBITDA was $62,200,000 compared to $57,000,000 in the same quarter last year. Excluding the refranchising of the 69 company owned Applebee's units in October of 2022, our revenues were up 5% for the full year and up 4% in Q4. IHOP achieved full year comp sales growth of 3.5% on top of 20 22's comp sale growth of 5.8%. And for the quarter, IHOP posted its 11th consecutive quarter of positive comp sales with a Q4 increase of 1.6%.

Speaker 2

Applebee's delivered positive 0.6% comp sales for the full year, maintaining momentum from 20 22s comp sale growth of 5.1%. And in Q4, Applebee's reported a slight decline of negative 0.5% in comp sales. And adjusted free cash flow was $103,300,000 in 2023, which was an improvement from 20 22's adjusted free cash flow of $64,600,000 Turning now to Applebee's, The highlight for Applebee's in Q4 was the success of our Dollar Reader promotion, which tapped into the promotional mindset of our guest and drove strong comp sales and positive traffic in October, helping Applebee's outperform Black Box in traffic in Q4. Dollar Reader was supported by strong social media pickup and more importantly, it was welcomed by our franchisees because it drove profitable sales and traffic. In fact, 93% of Dollar Rita purchases had an additional menu item attached.

Speaker 2

Dollar Rita also expanded our demographic reach, attracting a younger age group, many of whom visited Applebee's for the first time. We'll continue to execute on this successful formula via our Q1 partnership with Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul's Dose Ombres brand and the launch of 3 new mezcal margaritas along with our $5 Tipsy Cupid Mucho and $6 Blue Moon. This builds on the success of Dollarita and recognizes the promotional mindset of our guests as evidenced by 19% of transactions in Q4 were attributed to an LTO or promotion. Applebee's also has a full pipeline of new menu products and exciting marketing partnerships. The culinary team has now tested over 200 new menu concepts and we're excited to start rolling out the top performing items to Applebee's nationwide in Q2.

Speaker 2

We want to continue to be at the forefront of guests' minds and in an increasingly crowded space being culturally relevant is essential, which is why we will be increasing the number of on air weeks in a marketing calendar. Our approach is to weave together a strategic mix of promotions, new menu items and to drive traffic, frequency and check. In Q4, we also took a big step forward improving our guests' digital experience. In December, Applebee's launched its new website and mobile app, which features a fresh design and offers guests a personalized and elevated ordering experience. Applebee's site and app now allow guests to pick up their orders using CarSight TO Go, in restaurant pickup or have it delivered straight to their door.

Speaker 2

Since the launch of the new website and mobile app, we've seen a higher percentage of guests choosing to place the order digitally, higher conversion rates and increased check averages compared to our prior site and app. Now while the off premise side of the business remains above pre pandemic levels, it has softened somewhat and we believe that there are opportunities to improve on our off premise offering and execution. We have new initiatives to drive this segment of our business. Our job in 2024 is to build on this progress by delivering innovative menu, technology and marketing to propel this iconic brand in an increasingly value driven market. We're optimistic about Applebee's continued performance and expect to deliver positive growth for Applebee's throughout 2024.

Speaker 2

Now moving on to IHOP. In the Q4, we delivered our 11th consecutive quarter of positive comp sales, average weekly sales over $50,000 for the first time in the last week of December, and we opened 46 restaurants domestically last year. IHOP is truly a growth brand and its success reflects our steady and consistent investments in menu and marketing innovation, technology enhancements and the build out of the loyalty program. To expand a bit more on the loyalty program, when we embarked on the International Bank of Pancakes, it was based on the theory that loyalty drives frequency and the results have surpassed our own goals. Last year, we enrolled over 3,500,000 new members, bringing our total loyalty members to 8,000,000 people.

Speaker 2

Our dine in loyalty members are on average visiting nearly twice as often as non members and they spend on average 5% more than non loyalty members. The IHOP app is being downloaded 8,000 times per day and Newsweek for the 2nd year in a row recognized our loyalty program as one of the best in America. I believe that there is much more upside here. Notwithstanding the quick growth of the program, loyalty only accounts for approximately 6.5% of total sales for IHOP, up from less than 3% in 2022. Just beginning to scratch the surface in terms of the loyalty programs ability to drive incremental traffic and sales.

Speaker 2

We're also starting to learn the purchasing habits of our loyalty members that will lead to more personalized marketing. 2023 was also an important year for IHOP's menu, With the knowledge of 70% of our sales are breakfast items, including at dinner, we added the new categories of biscuits and Benedicts and free fresh the French toast and crepes categories. These additions all sustain their performance during the Q4 and both the menu items and the visual design of the new menu were industry award winners. On the marketing, IHOP's omnichannel approach to marketing connects with guests, focusing on limited time promotions and the basics of great value. For example, our 4th quarter partnership with Warner Brothers Wonka included a film inspired limited time menu that enhanced brand awareness and drove sales.

Speaker 2

In fact, IHOP outperformed Black Box and family dining and comp sales 4 out of 5 weeks during Q4's Wonka campaign. On the technology front, 92% of our IHOP restaurants have implemented the new POS system and server tablets. Our preliminary data shows that franchisees that have fully enabled their server tablets are experiencing a higher beverage attachment rate, improvement in ticket time, higher average check and higher tips for servers. Last year, IHOP also made significant strides in advancing our consumer packaged goods program. According to Kraft Heinz, our IHOP coffee became one of the fastest growing new launches in dry coffee, over indexing with Gen Z and millennials.

Speaker 2

Momentum continues to grow as marketing support and social media ramp up. Additional sizes are being added in Q1 and new flavor innovations and formats are on track for Q2. The new to market iced lattes offer cafe style beverages at home, making inroads with younger consumers. Kraft Heinz gained exclusive distribution of the new IHOP iced lattes in Walmart in 2023 and we launched nationally in 2024. Overall, IHOP solidified its market leadership last year and we expect this momentum to continue in 2024 supported by ongoing innovation and operational enhancements.

Speaker 2

Turning now to Fuzzies, The highlight here, of course, is that the integration process was completed last year and Fuzzies is now set up to benefit from Dine's shared resources. We're excited about the cross pollination underway as existing Dine portfolio franchisees are looking to opportunities across all three brands in the Dine family portfolio. Alongside integration, we've also been applying IHOP and Applebee's tried and tested insights and expertise, including menu optimization and innovation and analytics to improve pricing and to drive smarter data informed decisions. We're pleased that Fuzzy's LTOs last year, such as the Margarita Shrimp Taco, Chicken Elote and its newest burria Taco Bowl and Queso were the best in the brand's history. Already in Q1, Fuzzy's has launched its new traditional Baja fish taco and premium Baja menu category.

Speaker 2

This is the first step of bringing the Baja program to life in 2024. Starting Q1, 2024, we will provide more details on Fuzzy's performance. And finally, our international division had a strong year of growth in 2023 with a total of 23 openings for the year, resulting in 11 net new restaurants. Our IHOP and Applebee's dual branded prototype continues to perform well in its markets and we opened our 8th dual branded restaurant in January in Leon, Mexico, which represents a compelling opportunity for further growth since Mexico is one of our largest international markets. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Vance.

Speaker 4

Thank you, John. Overall, we delivered a solid performance in 2023. In addition to the significant operational gains, we generated $103,000,000 of free cash flow, 3 consecutive years of positive comp sales at Applebee's and continued sales momentum at IHOP, we exceeded our EBITDA guidance, reduced leverage to 4.2 turns and we have successfully completed the refinancing of our Class 821 notes while continuing to return capital to shareholders. Our 4th quarter total revenues were $206,300,000 which declined 1% on a year over year basis, primarily due to the refranchising of the 69 company operated Applebee's units in October of 2022. Excluding the refranchising, 4th quarter total revenues would have been up 4%.

Speaker 4

For the full year, we generated $831,100,000 in total revenues, which was 9% lower than prior year, again, primarily due to the refranchising. Excluding the refranchising, revenues increased 5% due to the positive comp sales at IHOP and Applebee's and full year's revenue contribution from Fuzzy's, which we acquired in December of 2022. If we exclude advertising revenues, franchise revenues in Q4 increased 6.5% year over year and 8.7% for the full year. Rental segment revenues for the Q4 of 2023 remained flat at $29,500,000 compared to the same quarter of 2022. G and A for the Q4 of 2023 was $50,500,000 compared to $58,800,000 for the same quarter of last year.

Speaker 4

We ended the year with 190 $8,100,000 of G and A expenses, up from $190,700,000 last year due to costs resulting from the inclusion of Fuzzy's operations, stopping of the IHOP flip initiative and increases in compensation related and software maintenance costs offset by the refranchising of the company operated restaurants and transaction costs related to Fuzzy's acquisition in 2022. We generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $62,200,000 in this quarter compared with last year's $57,000,000 quarterly results. Our consolidated adjusted 2023 EBITDA of $256,400,000 was ahead of our guidance and up from last year's $251,900,000 Finally, adjusted earnings per diluted share for the 4th quarter and full year were $1.40 per share $6.65 per share respectively, outpacing last 4th quarter's $1.34 per share and 20 22's $6.20 per share. Despite higher interest expense from our refinancing, we increased EPS primarily due to an increase in segment profit and the benefit of our share repurchases. Turning to our cash flow statement, balance sheet and strategic usage of capital.

Speaker 4

We generated adjusted free cash flow of $103,300,000 in 2023. This compares favorably to $64,600,000 for 2022. Our full year 2023 cash flows from operations came in at $131,100,000 compared with $89,300,000 in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to a favorable change in working capital and an increase in segment profit. CapEx for 2023 was $37,200,000 compared to $35,300,000 for 2022.

Speaker 4

Our 2023 CapEx number does not reflect the $11,000,000 of TI reimbursement that we received, which will have lowered our effective CapEx. We ended the 4th quarter with total unrestricted cash of $146,000,000 This compares favorably to unrestricted cash of $98,000,000 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Our leverage ratio also improved by 0.4 turns due to a combination of EBITDA growth and strong cash generation, which is a testament to the strength and stability of Dine's business model in challenging environments. Regarding capital allocation, we continue to remain disciplined. We returned $58,000,000 of capital to shareholders in 2023 through dividends and stock buybacks.

Speaker 4

In addition to that, we returned capital to bondholders of $151,700,000 through debt buybacks and the refinancing. We know that capital return is important to our shareholders and we continue to evaluate optimal mix of dividends and buybacks, while also ensuring we invest in our business for growth and maintain a healthy balance sheet. In 2023, Dine system sales reached over $7,900,000,000 demonstrating the scale that our brands collectively have. Applebee's 2023 same restaurant sales increased 0.6% year over year. Applebee's system sales results have remained fairly steady in 2023 as average weekly sales were $54,000 including close to $12,000 from off premise or about 22% of total sales, of which 11% is from to go and 11% is from delivery.

Speaker 4

IHOP system sales continue their positive momentum in 2023 with same restaurant sales growth of 3.5%. Average weekly sales in 2023 were a little over $38,000 including approximately $8,000 from off premise or 21% of total sales, of which 9% is from to go and 12% is from delivery. On the commodities front, Applebee's Q4 commodity costs improved by 2.9% versus a year ago and IHOP's commodity costs improved by 2.3% versus 2022. Our supply chain co ops CSCS is expecting pricing in 2024 at Applebee's to be flat to low single digit deflation, indicating further potential tailwind for our franchisees. NIIHOP were expecting pricing to remain steady in the range of flat to low single digit In partnership with CSCS, we continue to leverage our scale and make progress on our cross functional restaurant profitability initiative.

Speaker 4

In 2023, we implemented several projects with the Applebee's and IHOP franchisees that resulted in about $53,000,000 in annualized savings for our franchisees. We're pleased with the results of this initiative and continue to actively identify new savings ideas for the future. Based on data we've collected from the franchisees, while labor wages have gone up over the last couple of years, restaurant staffing has improved and we're seeing labor as a percent of sales at levels similar to pre COVID levels at both brands. On the food side, food as a percent of sales has declined from its peak in 2022 and is improving, but it is still elevated relative to pre COVID levels at both brands by approximately 50 bps. However, we continue to leverage the purchasing power of our brands co op CSCS, which continuously evaluates cost savings from market basket to equipment.

Speaker 4

As mentioned, we expect food costs to stabilize in 2024 and will continue to support our franchisees to drive additional efficiencies. Lastly, to recap Q4 and full year development numbers, Applebee's had net domestic closings of 33 restaurants in 2023. IHOP opened 46 restaurants domestically in 2023, 17 of which were in Q4. For the year, IHOP had net domestic openings of 19 restaurants in 2023. And this brings me to a discussion of our full year guidance for 2024.

Speaker 4

As John mentioned, we're reintroducing comp sales into our guidance. In 2024, we're expecting Applebee's domestic system wide comp sales to range between 0% to 2%. We're expecting IHOP's domestic system wide comp sales to range between 1% 3%. We're forecasting a G and A range of $200,000,000 to $210,000,000 including non cash stock based compensation and depreciation of approximately $35,000,000 On EBITDA, we're guiding to a range of $255,000,000 to $265,000,000 We anticipate 2024 CapEx spend to be in the range of approximately $50,000,000 to $20,000,000 On 2024 development, we're expecting 25 to 35 net fewer domestic Applebee restaurants and 15 to 25 net new domestic IHOP restaurants. With our new development strategy in place, we feel confident in our ability to continue to open up new restaurants and scale the footprint of our brands over time.

Speaker 4

Now I'll turn the call back to John to further discuss our development strategy and to close out today's earnings. John?

Speaker 2

Thanks so much Vance. I'll wrap up by speaking a bit more about our development efforts. We're in the fortunate position that as a result of our healthy balance sheet, strong cash flow generation and prudent use of capital, we are able to enhance our strategy and execution on development. As I said at the start of the call, we believe that there is plenty of opportunity to grow the global footprint of our 3 brands. However, development is not a one size solution for our brands, nor for our franchisees.

Speaker 2

Our brands each have different starting points and areas of focus. Specifically, IHOP has a track record of growth upon which to build. Applebee's focus is on conversions and developing a prototype with an ROI that will return the brand to net unit openings. As the largest brands in their respective segments by unit count, both brands are focused on infill opportunities. In fact, this week we reached an agreement with our largest franchisee, The Flynn Group, reflecting their plans and goals to develop 25 restaurants over the next 7 years.

Speaker 2

With Fuzzy's, our approach is to recruit new franchisees to develop new markets, while also tapping into our IHOP and Applebee's franchisee network. This approach is the same in our international markets, attract new franchisees and also leverage the dual brand option. Similarly, our franchisees also have different needs. Some are looking for different forms of financial support. Others may need help finding real estate opportunities.

Speaker 2

Others need assistance with the permitting and construction process, while some may desire help with the pre opening marketing. We will address these specific needs in its target and analytical way to create profitable growth for Dine and our franchisees. Lastly, it's important to note that we're funding the investment in development by reallocating costs within Dine's existing cost structure and not by increasing overall spend. So to wrap up, I want to thank our franchisees and team members for a strong performance in 2023 and reiterate my confidence in the outlook of our business. Dine is uniquely positioned and the attributes that make us so our asset light model, our iconic brands, our scale and our expertise are all the more impactful in the current economic environment.

Speaker 2

In an environment in which our guests remain price sensitive, our brands are known for delivering abundant value. We're further strengthening our recipe for growth in 2024 with our methodical development strategy that will generate sustainable value over the long term for our shareholders and franchisees. And with that, I will return the call to the operator to open up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Bernstein from Barclays. The floor is now yours.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you very much. A couple of questions. The first, just thinking about the comp trends, wondering if you could talk about whether there was any change in trajectory through the quarter 4Q, I should say, or the Q1, quarter to date, whether you're seeing any change in consumer behavior. I know you mentioned that it's definitely a more challenging environment.

Speaker 5

And I think you mentioned you expect positive comps at Applebee's throughout the year. I wasn't sure that whether that was a reference to reversing the negative trend and therefore getting back to positive even in the Q1 despite the weather? And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 2

Sure. Good morning, Jeff. It's John. Thanks for the question. And I'll address the first question about the comp trends in general, and then Tony will talk to you about the Applebee's trend specifically.

Speaker 2

So you all have known many of the people, our competitors said the same thing. The trends in January were tough, right? Weather took a hit took its toll on all of us in January. But since then, as the weather eased at the end of January and through February, we've seen traffic improving each week throughout February.

Operator

I think

Speaker 2

it's heading in the right direction. And Tony, do you want to address Applebee's specifically?

Speaker 6

Yes. So, Jeff, we're confident in our plan for the year. That confident is rooted in the performance of our brand over the last 3 years. As we said from the outset, we delivered positive comp sales in 2021, 2022 and 2023. And so I think that bodes well for 2024.

Speaker 6

As John mentioned, there were some headwinds in January, look, we're looking to repeat the success of 'twenty three and 'twenty four. Our plan centers around what we believe are 3 really important drivers of our business. We've got a really strong promotional strategy with new disruptive campaigns and aggressive value. We're rolling out much needed menu innovation starting in Q2 of this year. And there's a renewed focus on our off premise business centered on improving our operational efficiency and marketing tactics.

Speaker 6

If we execute against those initiatives, we should enjoy another really strong year of comp sales growth.

Speaker 5

Understood. And then John, as you talked about development, just curious your thoughts on a return to Applebee's net unit growth. We know there have definitely been some franchisee headwinds. I'm assuming there's some pushback to net unit growth. But the U.

Speaker 5

S. System is fairly mature. Should we expect more of a disciplined switch to more the international white space opportunity? I know you talked about the dual brand, but just trying to size up when you internally expect Applebee's to get back to net unit growth and whether or not that international could become a greater lever going forward?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. So for Applebee's, our goal is absolutely that it will return to net unit growth. The world has changed. The world today is different than it was 3 years ago when we first started talking about that, particularly because of the cost to build an Applebee's.

Speaker 2

And so we're very focused right now, and Tony can offer more detail, on assembling a prototype for Applebee's that has an ROI that our franchises are looking for. We're doing that with them together and that work is underway. Applebee's is focusing on convergence and that's an important pivot for the brand. And most importantly, we mentioned in the scripted remarks that we've just agreed this week to a new development deal with The Flynn Group for 25 restaurants over the next 7 years, which is a great indication of our largest franchisees commitment to the brand and commitment to and belief in its future. So we've got work to do to build the pipeline for Applebee's over the next couple of years to return the brands at net unit growth.

Speaker 2

When it comes to international, that's where the white space is for both brands. And what we're really pioneering internationally is this dual branded concept. We just opened the 8th dual brand restaurant in Leon, Mexico, outside Mexico City. The concept there is a shared back of house and a combined and blended front of house for the 2 brands. And what we're seeing on average is that the revenues for the same size boxes, one brand or the other is 2x or more what it was before, what you'd expect, because with the 2 brands, we can address all 4 dayparts.

Speaker 2

That's a big innovation that we're nurturing overseas and that our intent is to eventually bring to the U. S. When we find the right opportunity to introduce it.

Speaker 5

Just lastly, Vance, I think you mentioned the talking about the optimal mix from a cash usage perspective with the share pullback. I mean, the dividend yield is now in the 4.5% range. That's well above your casual dining peers. I'm just wondering whether you're getting credit for such a yield or whether money might be better spent buying back more shares at the valuation. It sounds like you're contemplating that as well, but just curious your thoughts on whether you think about leverage in 2024 now that you're in the low four turns range, where you'd expect that to go from here?

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Thanks for your question, Jeff. Our capital allocation priorities remain the same. So right now, we're focused on protecting and strengthening our balance sheet while returning capital to shareholders at the same time. The dividend yield that you referenced, we've kept our dividend payout ratio roughly the same and the dividend yield is more of a reflection of where the stock is trading. But we are focused on the optimal mix between the 2 and we will do buybacks as we've done in the past opportunistically.

Speaker 7

And we understand how important capital return is to our shareholders and we've done over $200,000,000 of capital return in the past 2 years and we've paid down our debt by $200,000,000 So we'll continue that trajectory. No meaningful change to how we think about we understand the importance of return capital.

Speaker 5

Understood. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment as I prepare the next question. Our next question comes from the line of Dennis Geiger from UBS. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks guys. First one, curious if you could speak a little more to the customer reception to the value that you had in the 4th quarter and maybe the value incidents at Applebee's. I think you mentioned, I think it was 19% of transactions were attributed to LTOs or promos. Can you just remind us where that has been historically?

Speaker 8

And then just on the stickiness maybe of those value occasions, I think you talked to the Dollaritas being new customers and somewhat sticky. So just anything more there on that stickiness on kind of potentially keeping some of those customers coming in for the value occasions?

Speaker 2

Yes, Dennis, thanks. It's John. I'll start as well and then Tony will ask you to give a little bit more detail. At the highest level, 2024 from our perspective for both brands remains a promotion driven environment and our guests are attracted to that. So we view 2024 as a fight for market share.

Speaker 2

We haven't we have seen that our guests have been remarkably resilient in 2023 as well in 2024 in terms of their intent to continue to dine out. What we're also seeing from consumer behavior perspective is that they are making choices about where and when to dine out. They're dining out a little bit less often. And when they are in our restaurants, they are finding our value portion of our menus, whether it's the everyday value portion or the LTO like you alluded to for Applebee's. That 19% is up about 2 points over earlier quarters, but not drastically so.

Speaker 2

Tony, can you add some more color about Applebee's approach for the year?

Speaker 6

Yes. So a couple of points. One of the questions one of the points you asked about was the value menu that Johnny answered that. But our value menu continues to perform well, but The share of tickets has remained fairly stable in 2023. It tends to go up a little bit when we promote really abundant value like some of our all you can eat campaigns.

Speaker 6

You also asked about Dollarita. Dollarita was a standout success, right? We think there is a level of stickiness that's associated to it. Our guests absolutely love the promotion and our franchisees more importantly are as thrilled with it as we are. We sold more than $6,300,000 in the month of October.

Speaker 6

That's about $135 per restaurant per day. The ticket order incidence was higher than we originally launched it back in 2017. So from a brand perspective, Dollarita exceeded all of our internal targets, whether it was value draw, frequency. It exceeded our internal product scores. And then more importantly, it exceeded our financial targets.

Speaker 6

It drove incremental sales, incremental tickets and the all important franchisee margin dollars.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Tony speaking of franchisee margin dollars, it's a great number to share, right, which is that 94% of those dollar tickets included another menu item, which is exactly what our franchises are looking for in a promotion like that.

Speaker 9

Correct.

Speaker 8

Great. Very helpful, guys. And then just one other. I think you talked about increasing number of weeks on air. Just curious if anything as it relates to 'twenty four, I forgot the timeframe you frame that out, but what 'twenty four looks like maybe versus prior years from a marketing and number of weeks on air perspective, if anything there to share to highlight the things you're doing this year?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 2

That's a good question for Tony.

Speaker 6

Yes, absolutely. I'm not going to go into too much detail on our promotional strategy. But we revisit our marketing spend annually and it's relatively flat this year versus 2023. We're not necessarily spending more. We're just spreading the total spend across more windows.

Speaker 6

So our our promotional strategy for the year is allowing us to add additional on air advertising, while we still maintain our reach and frequency goals. You'll see an uptick in more digital spend on certain promotions this year as well.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Thank you for your question. One moment as I prepare the next. Our next question comes from the line of Jake Bartlett from truest.com. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking the question. Mine was on just a follow-up really on the Applebee's same store sales trends. And it sounds like October was very strong with the dollar readout and then it would have gotten more negative after that.

Speaker 9

But you sound pretty confident in the current trajectory. I mean, my read is that you're implying a positive same store sales expectation in the Q1. So what is driving that what do you think is driving that improvement from what you saw in November, December to kind of what you're seeing now?

Speaker 2

Yes. Jake, it's John. The one thing I wanted to also mention about October is that we beat Black Box through that entire period, driven by the Dollar Eta promotion. And then yes, it was a little bit softer in November December. We can't give you specific guidance on Q1.

Speaker 2

But Tony, I think it's helpful if you speak to Applebee's plans for the year around menu innovation, etcetera, that give you the confidence for the year.

Speaker 6

Yes. So I did mention earlier, let me start by going back to Q4 and what we saw there during the quarter. We outperformed Black Box and traffic for the quarter. So we were obviously pleased with that, but we did underperform in sales. It had limited appeal.

Speaker 6

And so what that told us was that guests were expecting stronger value offerings. So we'll take that learning, which is part of our confidence into 2024. I'd also say that November December were impacted by macroeconomic conditions and our guests were making a little bit more selective decisions for their wallets. And we did see we are seeing a continuation of that trend in Q1. We're seeing that tightening of discretionary spending following the holidays.

Speaker 6

It had an impact in January and February has improved. And we'll give you more color on Q1, obviously, when we report results in May.

Operator

Great. Jake,

Speaker 7

just wanted to make sure that the guidance that we gave is for the full year, not Q1 specifically. And if you look at how we did last year, what we're comping over, that will give you a sense of how the trend should be, but we're not guiding on Q1 specifically.

Speaker 9

No, that's a good clarification because you said throughout 2024 and to me that was implying that it was going to be positive throughout each quarter, but that is not the implication. Just to make sure just to reiterate that, that is not what you're trying to imply that

Operator

That is not what it's doing.

Speaker 3

Okay, got it.

Speaker 9

Great, great. And then the other question was on development. I understand the unit economics being impacted by the build costs, but it seems like what we're also seeing is an acceleration of closures or maybe just a continuation of closures at Applebee's. I'm not sure maybe if you can kind of clarify the moving pieces for the lower development, net development at IHOP. But we're seeing a fair amount of closures yet.

Speaker 9

It seems like the margin pressures are easing, given what you kind of the metrics on labor and commodities that you provided. So what is driving that elevated lever closures? And then building on that on IHOP, roughly 2 years ago at the Analyst Day, you mentioned, I think we were talking about roughly 100 store openings at this point. Now we're talking about significantly less. So what is the what are the biggest things that have changed?

Speaker 9

It feels like you're just talking fairly confidently about development, yet the development is actually much less than we would have expected, even just

Speaker 5

a year or 2 ago. Yes.

Speaker 2

Jake, it's John. I'll just I'll briefly say that the environment has changed in several ways in terms of the availability of financing, the cost of financing, the cost to build a restaurant, and also just the cyclical pattern of large brands like ours. And when contracts expire and the renewal process. Jay, why don't you talk specifically about IHOP and then we'll go to Tony Burchoff comments on Applebee's closures.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks, Jake. I think that at IHOP, clearly, as John just said, the environment has changed significantly post COVID with inflation and how people are viewing things, interest rates, etcetera. But overall, we've been a steady developer. We might not have hit the 100 number we had talked about a few years ago, but we own 46 restaurants this past year and have been pretty stable and steady and a consistent grower and a pretty consistent net growth, while comp sales have been going up as well.

Speaker 10

So we are growing. We are we do have a good pipe line headed into this year. And if you recall, we were having all kinds of issues. I think the industry was too with kind of timelines and permitting and delays. And I think we're looking at this now when we look at our guidance this year, that's the new normal.

Speaker 10

We probably shouldn't think so much about how many roll into next year. There's always some that push into next year. It was accelerated and there are more of them the last couple of years, but that's probably the new normal on what the timeline looks like. We're trying to be realistic in our guidance this year with let's just build all that into our thoughts and we really think that's what we're going to be able to accomplish this year now with that guidance we've given.

Speaker 6

Yes. Let me this is Tony. Let me add a little bit more color on the question on closures for Applebee's. Our closure rates are between 1% 2% of the system. That's a normal attrition rate for a mature brand like Applebee's.

Speaker 6

What we need to do now is leverage our new development structure, leverage the initiatives that are underway like the new prototype to build a more robust pipeline of new openings so that we can finally return to positive net unit growth. I'll add that these closures aren't a sign of struggling franchisees. They're often a sign of struggling trade areas. And I can assure you that our leadership team, we're pulling every lever we have to offset the downside of closings. Closing a restaurant is an incredibly difficult decision.

Speaker 6

It's really a decision of last resort for a franchisor and a franchisee. So we'll work closely with our franchisees to minimize closures and then build the pipeline of new openings to get us back to net unit growth.

Speaker 9

Great. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for the question. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Gonzalez with KeyBanc Capital Markets. The floor is yours.

Speaker 11

Thanks and thanks for taking my question. The first is on the EBITDA outlook. The range appears to

Speaker 7

be a bit higher than what we expected and it implies about flattish

Speaker 11

to maybe up 3% to 4%. G and A, you're expecting to be flat, maybe up 4% to 5%. So I think that means you're not going to see much leverage on the low single digit comps. So I'm just

Speaker 8

wondering if you could point to

Speaker 11

us where the upside might be coming from to that EBITDA range?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Eric. Vance, can you address that?

Operator

Of course.

Speaker 6

Hey, Eric.

Speaker 7

The EBITDA upside that we're seeing is from the margin expansion that we're seeing in Q4 and continue to believe for the next year. Remember the with our asset light model, right, like it's this is what we're exactly what we're trying to accomplish is to leverage the investments we've made and we're starting to see the growth outpacing the investment spend. Our growth isn't just in comps, it's unit development. We have other revenue channels collectively that we're working on. And altogether, right, those are the things that we invested in.

Speaker 7

Altogether, we're driving top line faster than the G and A growth and that's where

Operator

the margin expansion is happening.

Speaker 7

Okay. By the way, Eric, you're seeing the improvement in cash flow, you're seeing guiding on lower CapEx going forward. That's all just the result of us more or less wrapping up with the implementation of the technology initiatives we've done and we're sort of just realizing the fruits of the investments, the work that we've done in the past few years at this point. Well, you answered my follow-up before I could ask it, but it was going

Speaker 11

to be about that CapEx outlook $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 versus I think you spent $37,000,000 last year. Is that the new run rate? Should we expect that to be in that range going forward?

Speaker 7

Yes, that is the new run rate. And look, I think we CapEx is we use that a growth vehicle, right? We have projects and new ideas, new initiatives that we want to invest in to drive return. We'll update investors accordingly. But for this year, I think this is the right run rate and we're sort of just realizing that the cash flow benefits of investment we've made so far.

Speaker 7

And so we're really excited about the outlook.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you for your question. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Setyan from Wedbush. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thank you. You guys talked about an evolving strategy around both advertising and LTOs. I think you mentioned the higher number of LTOs, if I'm not mistaken, with a greater emphasis on value. And I know you guys talked about sort of the higher weeks, higher number of weeks on TV. Maybe just holistically talk about both of the strategies.

Speaker 3

Is there any way to quantify the number of LTOs? What do you mean by greater value? And also with ad spend not growing as much or at least to add dollars not growing as much, where is the sort of incremental spend on TV coming from?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Nick. It's John. Just a blanket sentence on behalf of Jay and Tony is we're not going to get into specifics around where we're spending certain dollars or what our message will be or how many promotions because that's clearly strategically proprietary and we don't want our competitors to know that. But Jay and then Tony can certainly talk about their promotional strategy at a as you said, at a higher holistic level without giving away the secret. So Jay, why don't you talk about your promotion strategy first and then we'll go to Tony.

Speaker 10

Sure, John. Thanks for the question, Nick. What you just referenced most of your question pertain I think as follow ups to the Applebee's comments earlier. We're pretty stable as far as what we're doing as far as amount of money we're spending and the number of LTOs, etcetera. So, we're running the same strategy we've been running.

Speaker 10

We really believe we need to have a great menu, great marketing and great execution to drive repeat business. That's the recipe to get traffic improving and sales going up and even going up, etcetera. Clearly, we've got our loyalty levers we can pull as far as additional marketing and that keeps growing for us and gives us new opportunities all the time as we learn who our guests are and being able to activate direct channel 1 to 1 marketing with them. But we strongly believe that in the barbell strategy where we have full priced, great new innovative items that we promote. We have new menus a couple of times a year that we promote.

Speaker 10

And clearly we have value things that we promote. And we put those in throughout the year at the appropriate times when we feel it's right to either go heavily on value or more on innovation. And we are doing the same strategy we have been doing with new innovations and different values and maybe a different time set is when they roll. But we're continuing down that same path we've been on that's gotten us to 11 straight quarters of being up in sales.

Speaker 6

Yes. And look along the same lines, our promotional strategy, the key to it is to remain balanced, right? We've always been known for affordability, but when you've got a promotional strategy that's based in value, it has to be more than just discounted pricing. In this competitive environment, right, where lots of brands are engaged in discounting, the experience becomes the differentiator. And so part of that experience is menu innovation.

Speaker 6

So you'll see in our calendar for 2024, it includes multiple new products that will be introduced throughout the year starting in April. You'll see the first of the many products. And then we'll introduce some new promotional partners that will excite and engage our guests. And then we'll obviously sprinkle in some of our tried and true promotions that our guests have come to love at Applebee's. But the key to our plan is to be balanced.

Speaker 6

It's not just dependent solely on discounting.

Speaker 3

Okay. I just want to kind of understand the building blocks of the comp because as Vance said, you guys expect more or less flattish pricing at Applebee's, if I understood the commentary correctly. So with flattish pricing, I guess, do you actually expect to drive positive transactions for the year to get to sort of a plus 1 comp? That's the midpoint of your guidance.

Speaker 7

Nick, let me just clarify. This is Vance. When I mentioned pricing, that's commodity food cost pricing, not menu pricing. So let me just address that upfront and John and Tony, I'll get right back to you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Vince. I was going to ask you to clarify that exact thing. It wasn't about menu pricing. Tony, do you have anything you want to add?

Speaker 2

Although I think that probably clarifies next question.

Speaker 6

Yes. No, I mean, we can't speak on behalf of our franchisees, but I can say that they that in terms of menu pricing, they understand that affordability is the main driver for visit intent and we expect them to act accordingly to protect our category lead in affordability.

Speaker 3

Okay, understood. And just final question, on Fuzzy's, do you actually expect some openings in 2024 and maybe just give us some numbers around the pipeline, if you could?

Speaker 2

Sure. The pipeline for Fuzzy's is 144 restaurants in the pipeline, which we've grown since the acquisition. And we're not guiding on Fuzzy's pipeline yet. We'll do that next year if we have a full year of sharing its actuals with you.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro from Raymond James. The floor is yours.

Speaker 11

Hi, thanks and good morning. I wanted to go back to the 4th quarter comps and can you level set or quantify what each brand reflects in terms of traffic versus check or even pricing within the quarter?

Speaker 2

Vance, I'm going to turn that to you.

Speaker 7

Sure. Hey, Brian, how are you? So 4th quarter Applebee pricing menu pricing was 2.7% and IHOP menu pricing was 7.8 percent. Both brands saw negative traffic for the Q4. But as Tony mentioned earlier, Q4 for Applebee's, we beat Black Box.

Speaker 7

And I think price as far as PMICs, both IHOP is flattish to slightly up and then Applebee's is slightly negative

Speaker 5

on PMICs.

Speaker 7

That's the makeup.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you for that. And on IHOP specifically, I guess I wanted to ask Jade, maybe get your perspective. Just it seems like the family dining sector is holding pricing higher for longer.

Speaker 11

And I'm curious just to ask how sustainable you think that might be. And given the pressures that you're seeing out there, the value conscious consumer. And maybe you could even elaborate a little bit on what you're seeing from a daypart perspective. I would think that maybe the composition of your guests might be a little bit different at core breakfast versus lunch and dinner and how that might play into it, but mainly focused on that first part around the pricing running higher in family dining and how that fits with the current environment.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks for the question, Brian. Clearly, you just listen to the numbers Vance just told you, yes, we're a little higher than even our sister brand as far as what our franchisees took in the way of pricing this past year. I do think that you implied that's not sustainable. And I would tend to agree with you in that at those kind of numbers, people aren't going to keep doing 7% or 10% pricing in perpetuity, right?

Speaker 10

And we've already seen our own franchisees, it's dropped that considerably. The last menu prints we did toward the end of last year, much lower increases than that. But remember, these are annualized numbers when you look at what they've already taken at other menu prints earlier in the year that's still kind of in the number. I think that those will start to roll off as we get a little further down the path. So, I'm less concerned about those kind of increases as we move forward, at least at this moment, just looking at the trends of what I saw on the last menu increase that they did.

Speaker 10

So, I think that will start to stabilize itself.

Speaker 11

Okay. I appreciate that. And I know pricing decisions are up to your franchisees, but what's a reasonable expectation, just ballpark, for how much pricing might be in or average check might be in the Applebee's and IHOP systems in 2024?

Speaker 2

So Jay, you want to continue and then we'll go to Tony?

Speaker 10

Yes, that's fine. I think that as we look forward, we've got another menu coming up here in the spring and then there'll be one in the fall is the way it is scheduled at the moment. So they haven't made all their final determinations on what those prices are going to be and those menus are not out yet. So I can't give you any kind of forward looking as far as what they're going to do. I just see their behaviors of what they did this past fall.

Speaker 10

And one of the things we've done on the IOPS side of the business, we actually engage with RMS, a revenue management solution company, that's probably the biggest in the industry that helps a lot of companies do this. And, they're helping our franchisees, giving them some guidance as to where's the optimal prices and what's price sensitive, what isn't, where should you be careful. And they're getting some good guidance on this now. And clearly, they get to make their own decisions and they are the final decision maker on price, but they are getting some very good scientific, how to protect traffic and how to also make sure that they're optimizing their EBITDA at the same time too. They're getting some really good advice now I think.

Speaker 10

So we look forward to that as we go into this year too.

Speaker 6

Yes. Look, I'll just add along the same lines. Our franchisees took about 2.7% in pricing in Q4, which was down from, I believe, 4% in Q3. And I can't give you a number to guide in your model, but as a reference point, we've been our franchisees are very strategic and measured when it comes to pricing decisions that they make. And they've consistently recently have priced below their peers.

Speaker 6

So if you look at the food away from home increased data that would probably serve as a potential guide. Again, the decisions are up to the franchisees, but they've been pretty consistent in staying at or below what the peers have taken in pricing in the category.

Speaker 11

All right. That's very helpful. And then just last one for me, if I could. Moving on to the franchisee margins, Vance, appreciate the color you gave on the food and the labor margins kind of compared to 2019. Could you take that maybe round that out to the bottom line, the store level EBITDA either dollars or margins?

Speaker 11

Give us a sense where each brand is compared to 2019 on that?

Speaker 7

Yes. So I probably won't get into the specifics because those are not our financials. But based on what I've seen from what the franchisees have shared with us, both systems are in good shape, right. We talked about the headwinds and the tailwinds. The headwinds being labor costs remain elevated, but it's stabilizing.

Speaker 7

And then but the labor costs as a percent of sales is trending back towards pre COVID level. Food cost is commodity cost easing, so that's a good thing. We talked about the restaurant initiatives, the profitability initiatives with $50,000,000 of NOI savings. So that day tailwind as well. So all of this is in the context of the sort of uncertain macroeconomic environment, but as a whole systems are performing and this is of course, this is Q we always have a quarter lag, right?

Speaker 7

So I'm looking at Q3 financials right now for the franchisees.

Speaker 11

All right. Thank you. I'll pass it along.

Operator

Thank you. That now concludes our Q and A portion. I would now like to turn the conference back to John Payton, Dine Brands' CEO for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks Gerald, our favorite operator. We love when you're with us. You took good care of us. Thanks guys for joining us on the call this morning. We are excited for 2024.

Speaker 2

We are confident in our plans. We're excited to share our guidance around our EBITDA build year over year. We are excited about the new plan that we just let you know about with the Flynn Group for 25 new restaurants. And we're excited about our brands. You can do piano.

Speaker 2

And we're excited about our brands that have compelling and exciting promotions. So thanks everyone and we'll talk to you next

Operator

quarter. Thank you. This now concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Root Q4 2023
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