Frontline Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 29, 2024

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2023 Frontline Plc Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Lars Barstner, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much, dear all, and thank you for dialing into Frontline's 4th quarter earnings call. The last quarter of 2023 did not deliver the full on crazy of the hinges bull market we all wished for, but still gave us decent returns. We also started to take delivery of our VLCCs from Euronav in December, and we are very happy it's all been smooth sailing as they have come under the front plant flag. I would especially like to praise our project, technical and operations teams that effortlessly and professionally have incorporated these vessels into our fleet, proving our company's very scalable business model. Before I give the word to Inger, let's look at our TCE numbers on Slide 3 in the deck.

Speaker 1

In the Q4, Frontline achieved $42,300 per day on our VLCC fleet, dollars 45,700 per day on Suezmax and $42,900 per day on our LR2Aframax fleet. Both Suezmax and LR2 markets performing well above the previous quarters as they came to an end as the year came to an end. As our press release shows, the full year 2023 came in firmly as we earned $50,300 $52,600 $46,800 per day on our VLCC Suezmax and AframaxL2 Frees, respectively. I may add, we made over $650,000,000 in full year profitability, and this is deemed respectable in some circles. And it's in fact the best year we've had in 15 years.

Speaker 1

So far in the Q1 of 2024, 81 percent of our VLCC days are booked at $55,100 per day, 72% of our Suezmax days at $52,800 per day and 69% of our LR2Achromax days at a whopping $67,800 per day. Again, all these numbers in this table are on a low to discharge ballast days we end up having at the end of Q. I'll now let Inge, you can take us through the financial highlights.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Lars, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. And let's turn to Slide 4, profit statement, and look at some highlights. Frontline achieved total operating revenues in the Q4 sorry, operating revenues and the voyage expenses of €257,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 198,000,000 in the 4th quarter. We report profit of €118,400,000 or $0.53 per share and adjusted profit of €102,200,000 or $0.46 per share in this quarter. Adjusted profit in the 4th quarter increased by €21,400,000 compared with the 3rd quarter, and that was primarily due to an increase in our TCE earnings due to higher TCE rates, partially offset by fluctuations in other income and expenses.

Speaker 2

Then I think we should turn to Slide 5 and look at some balance sheet highlights. Frontline has strong liquidity of SEK 416,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount of the senior unsecured revolving credit facility, marketable securities and minimum cash requirements as per December 31, 2023. We have no remaining newbuilding commitments and no meaningful debt maturities until 2027. Then let's turn to Slide 6 and look at fleet competition, cash breakeven on OpEx. Following the delivery of all the 24 vessels acquired from Euronav and the expected sale of the 6 older vessels in the Q1 of 2024.

Speaker 2

The fleet will consist of 41 liter seats, 24 zoosbag tankers and 18 LR2 tankers, will have an average age of 5.8 years and consist of 99% eco vessels, where 57% will be scrubber fitted. We then look at the graph at the right hand side. We estimate average cash breakeven rates for 2024 of approximately $28,800 per day for VLCCs, dollars 23,700 per day for Suezmax tankers and $2,100 per day for LR2 tankers, with a fleet average estimate of about $25,700 per day. This takes into account an expected sale of the 6 older vessels, sorry, and also the 24 VLCCs acquired from Euronav in the Q1 of 2024. The fleet average estimate includes drydock of 4 Suezmax tankers and 5 VLCCs in 2024, where our 2 Suezmax tankers will drydock in the Q1 of 2024, 2 Suezmax tankers and 1 VLCC in the 2nd quarter, 2 VLCCs in the 3rd quarter and then 2 VLCCs in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

We recorded OpEx expenses, including drydock, in the 4th quarter of $9,400 per day for VLCCs, $12,500 per day for Suezmax tankers and $7,100 per day for LR2 tankers. This includes drydock of 6 Suezmax tankers and 2 VLCCs. The Q4 2023 fleet average OpEx excluding drydock was $7,300 per day. Then let's turn to Slide 7 and look at the financing of the acquisition of the 24 VLCCs. When we entered into the agreements with Euronav to acquire the fleet of the 24 eco vessels and also in our Q3, 2023 presentation, we said that our ambition was to minimize the need for cash from the Hemann shareholder loan through Frontline's capacity to re leverage existing fleet due to the historically low loan to value and or sale of all the non eco vessels.

Speaker 2

In January February 2024, we executed on this with the agreement to sell 6 older non eco vessels and the ongoing process of refinancing 24 vessels on what we believe are attractive terms, expecting them to generate net cash proceeds of approximately $646,000,000 This will enable us to fully repay the Hemann shareholder loan and the amount drawn under the SEK 275,000,000 senior unsecured NTQ global trade facility with an affiliate of Hemann in relation to the acquisition and also to maintain our competitive cash breakeven rates. With this, I leave the word to Lars again.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much, Inge. So let's move to Slide 8 and start to look at the current market narratives. So as you all know, kind of the headlines are followed by the Middle East tension, the situation in Israel and Palestine. And following that, the Red Sea Aden situation and its ton miles implications, looking at it from a tanking perspective. We're also seeing that U.

Speaker 1

S. Are increasing the pressure on what's referred to either as the dark fleet or the gray fleet and also increasing their focus on potential Russian price cap innovations. It was quite interesting to read earlier in the week in the quarter that they've analyzed the tanker fleet and found that according to them, the gray fleet now consists of 135 VLCCs, 90 Suezmaxes and 150 Aframaxes. These are vessels that are on dark, trading in Iranian barrels, trading to North Korea and doing all sorts of stuff and including the Russian fleet. That's the 375 vessels in total in the segments that we work in.

Speaker 1

As a total, all BRS came to 700 vessels involved in some sort of shady activity. That amounts to 8% of the total tanker fleet. So these numbers are quite shocking. Another thing that's kind of played a part in the last few months has been the high activity in the contracting market, both and especially so for Suezmaxes and VLCCs. Actually, to the extent where word on street now is that 2027 is starting to become somewhat tight.

Speaker 1

Also, another kind of important thing to note is we've been through a long period of OPEC voluntary cuts, and particularly so by Saudi Arabia. This has maybe or potentially led to non OPEC production being allowed to grow quite remarkably. Year on year, according to EIA, London has grown by 2.9000000 barrels per day. And as your listeners would know, most of this OPEC production is not in the Middle East, of course. It's further far and connected to that Lydpur Basin.

Speaker 1

And this continues to kind of confirm RRD that trading lanes are gradually extending as U. S, Brazil, Guyana and other countries are able to increase their production going forward. And China and Asia still is where demand growth is happening. Looking at the Sharps on this slide. So global oil trade has kind of paused a little bit.

Speaker 1

Also global oil in trend has paused a little bit. But on kind of the more frequent indicators, we do see that in oil in transit is on the rise what we can we expect it to be due to the longer ton miles around Cape of Good Hope avoiding Suez Canal. On the bottom three charts, you'll see how kind of the market's been the volatility has increased in these markets. I like to look at this by drawing a line at the bottom, and I think we are or hope we are in what looks like a rising trend territory. And kind of real time, what we're experiencing right now, particularly so in the VLCCs, is that we seem to kind of find the bottom at a marginally higher place that we were before.

Speaker 1

And also, there are indications that volatility is increasing. And particularly so, we've seen on the inter clean markets where the volatility has been violent so far in Q1. Let's move to Slide 9 and dig a little bit further into the Red Sea situation. So the straits between Yemen and Djibouti is very unsafe for passage. At the start of this kind of conflict or unrest, the ships that were targeted were predominantly Israel linked.

Speaker 1

But attacks are now randomly targeting anyone. And even Russian linked vessels, which we thought were kind of safe for disruption due to kind of Russia's support for some due to some of these groups have also been targeted. So I think kind of we should categorize this as random effects. I'm not a political analyst, but obviously learned a lot over the last months around this conflict. And the Hu Chi movement is also very fragmented.

Speaker 1

It's just it's not one uniform group. What we're understanding from the region is that they're also getting support from Somali pirates. So this is like a proper mess, I would say, and creates extremely unsafe conditions for seafarers and also for our assets. So frontline is not at this point rate and will continue on that position as long as the security situation remains as it is. Traffic through Suez Canal is now down 40% to 50%.

Speaker 1

Some might kind of expect it to be far more than that, but you need to remember also an export region. So it means that actually oil coming out of Saudi, for instance, still pass through the Suez Canal because they avoid them this Bavel, Mandeb Straits into the Gulf of Aden. We also see now that trade patterns are adjusting to Cape of Good Hope routing. This takes time because basically, ARBs and kind of oil price differentials have been based on Suezmax going through the Suez Canal, will need to be readjusted to basically account for VLCC volumes coming going around Cape of Good Hope. So we see more barrels already move on the VLCC.

Speaker 1

And the product side is now kind of, to a greater degree, favoring the big lifters being LR2s and even LR3s. And for those listeners that don't know what an LR3 is, it's basically a coated Suezmax. There not that many of them in this world. It's about 19 according to Clarkson, but you can also clean up a Suezmax in order to get into this market. Just visiting the graph, if you look at the right hand side of this slide, you basically see on top, you see oil tankers that are going around.

Speaker 1

And you see it's been a kind of a rapid increase since December 2023. And you see the oil tankers in the Yemeni, so basically not Suez, but more specifically the Bab el Mandeb Straits have fallen sharply since December 2023. And what this creates for the tanker industry is widening trade lanes. So basically, more oil is going around the Cape and less oil is going in the shortcut via Suez Canal. So let's move to Slide 10 and look at the order books.

Speaker 1

I mentioned in my introduction that this has been one of the big things kind of over the last few months is that ordering is picking up. This new all these new orders are not reflected in this slide because we use a very cautious and a conservative approach to new orders because in the shipping market, there are rumors and there are LOIs and there are options and there are all sorts of kind of discussion points around new orders. So we have chose to listen to firm leads to register kind of new builds when the IMO number is issued. So that's basically what is regarded a confirmed order. So you should expect going forward that particularly on the VLCC and to some extent on the Suezmax, these orange columns to increase.

Speaker 1

But we need to keep in mind that currently on the in the VLCC fleet, 15% of the existing fleet is above 20 years old. We have 133 VLCCs that either are or will pass 20 years in 2024. If you also look at the generations we're kind of moving into here, so 29 VLCCs were built in 2004, I. E, the coming 20 this year. And 31 VLCCs delivered in 2,005, becoming 20 years next year.

Speaker 1

So a total of 60 vessels just this year and next year are passing this 20 year threshold. If you add the 2,007 deliveries as well, you get to 79 or close to 80 vessels. That will increase this pink negative columns in the chart in how we portray it. Stuismag, more or less the same picture. We're hitting these generations where you have deliveries of 25, 23, 25 vessels, respectively, in 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Speaker 1

So you're basically after the same numbers as for the VLCC, 73 vessels that over the next 3 years will pass this magical threshold of 20 years. For the LR2s, that's where we kind of potentially could be worried about the order books and actually quite a significant amount of looking to be delivered in 2025. Well, again, have a look at the left hand side of that graph and look at and also consider the fact that an LR2 becomes less effective as a product carrier when it reaches the age of 15 and look at the generations we're hitting now in from 2,008, 2009 and 2010 builds, there's actually more than 92 LR2s that will pass the 15 year threshold over the next 3 years. Let's dig a little bit further into this because this is, after all, what I kind of regard a supply story rather than a demand story. Hopefully, it's more in the period from 2004 until 2008.

Speaker 1

This kind of what we hope to be a prolonged market is more related to supply. So let's move to Slide 11. And here at the top, we're highlighting the putting the highlights on the VLCC. So if you basically look at the VLCC fleet development, as is expected with the current deliveries that are kind of confirmed in the order book, we see a gradual kind of increase of the fleet up to 900 vessels or above 900 vessels. If you adjust for the vessels that are turning 20 years, you get a completely different curve.

Speaker 1

Some of you might have seen us using this chart before. Here, it's just updated. And then what implications does this have? Yes, so if you look at the chart on the top right hand side, you'll see average VLCC utilization. VLCC is not half the time and then ballasting the other half of the time, but then you need to deduct some more utilization for positioning, doing bunkering operations, so doing all the other stuff that you do that is not really related to the voyage and also some waiting time to load cargoes.

Speaker 1

So you get kind of a close to fifty-fifty laden ballast ratio. But when you look at this for the various generations of ships, you see that already from 17 year olds, the utilization of the VLCC starts to diminish. Some charters have a hard stop at 15 years. This is namely the Chinese, for instance. Others are starting to be hesitant or would rather prefer a modern ship when they're facing a ship at 17, 18 or 19 years.

Speaker 1

And obviously, from 20 years, you're taking away most of your clients. And this so even though the ships actually survive longer than 20 years, the utilization is falling. Another interesting chart, which is more general overall for tankers, looking at the left hand side, and it's kind of an observation we wanted to show this time, is that if you plot kind of all the orders that's been placed, look at the time from ordering until delivery, you'll see that there is a linear like a growing trend or high the trend is kind of the lead times are getting longer. And specifically so for the tankers, which is the blue dotted line. In December 2020, it was, on average, 1.8 years from the order was placed until the ship was delivered.

Speaker 1

Now we're actually closing in on 3 years. This is a big change. And also, you need to keep that in the back of your head considering the orders being placed now. There are large order backlogs, but not so much for tankers, which the bottom right hand slide chart, sorry, is showing you. So basically, most of the deliveries that are coming in 2024 and 2025 are related to bulkies and containers.

Speaker 1

And crude tankers is just a very, very small portion of the overall deliveries coming in. It's only in 2026 we can expect to see some kind of deliveries of some magnitude looking at the crude oil tankers. So with that, let me wrap it up before we open up for questions on Slide 12. So I think kind of the highlight of our presentation for Q4 is that we delivered on the long term financing of the SEK 2,400,000,000 asset transaction we did in Q4. And mind you guys, this is probably the largest single pure tanker deal ever concluded.

Speaker 1

We've sold 5 non ECO VLCCs and 1 non ECO Suezmax as we indicated in the last quarter. And INGIR has managed to refinance a significant part of our fleet at very competitive terms and without really moving the needle too much on our LTVs. We're obviously being helped a little bit by asset prices rising during the period as well. And I think more importantly to you who are listening in here, we have not printed one single share. So all vessels are delivered, and this doubles our VLCC footprint and increases our earning days by more than 30%.

Speaker 1

And I'd like to remind you earlier in the presentation where Inger explained, our average cash breakeven of fleet wide is $25,700 per day. Every dollar above that number hits the bottom line. We have obviously a great security situation in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and this seems to be adding to ton miles and it benefits the larger carriers that are offering greater economies of scale basically because they can lift larger volumes. We are seeing increased activity in contracting especially for Suezmax and VLCC, but it's actually so that the fleet age composition in the tanker fleet is the month this. Otherwise, short- and medium term oil demand remains firm, and non OpEx supply is growing.

Speaker 1

And then again, frontline scalable operational platform has digested this fleet expansion quite easily as the market's positive grind continues. And I also think it's important to put your eyes on the bottom chart here at this summary. These are kind of the earnings averages, weighted earnings averages for all tankers quite far back. And we do expect that we are nearing or potentially already in something that resembles the 2,004 to 2,008 period. And at least in the numbers, although you get kind of fooled a bit by the fact that the VLCCs are not performing or at least not performing as prominently as they normally would do, we have actually had both 2022 and 2023 have given remarkable returns to the tanker industry.

Speaker 1

And we're looking quite okay coming into January this year. And with that, I will open up or ask the operator to open up for questions.

Operator

Thank you, sir.

Speaker 3

Hi, yes. Thanks for taking our question and good morning. This is Ben Moore on for Amit here at Deutsche Bank. Can you talk about your conviction levels around the FLCC segment now that we're 2 months into 2022? How do you see the segment for the tanker market shaping up so far?

Speaker 3

And what's your current thinking about the rest of the year?

Speaker 1

Well, we're quite confident, but I'm pretty sure TradeWinds is going to have a field day on this observation. But what we're observing is that kind of the market is tight. It is very tight. But owners are potentially competing against each other, which we shouldn't really do in this kind of. So and the charters are playing their cards extremely well, basically just feeding the market with cargoes and pinpointing the owner and the schedule for that ship in order to make it appear quiet.

Speaker 1

Whilst we have a significant position in this market, so we obviously pick up more information than most, and we see that activity is actually very, very good. So we the activity is good, but for the owners to translate that into significantly higher earnings has been very, very hard. But apart from that, I used the word grind in this presentation. I do believe we are in a firming grind on utilization, and this is going to continue. I still think we're going to have the seasonal kind of slowdowns and seasonal upward movements.

Speaker 1

Normally, as come into the summer season with refinery turnarounds and so forth. But I think it's quite kind of positive to see how quickly the VLCC market went for, say, from $35,000 to $40,000 a day, going all the way up to 90 north of $90,000 per day. This is for AG Eastwiches. And then obviously falling back, to this market when kind of the appearance of certain tight pockets come, this market is on fire. So I think the general we're only receiving 1 VLCC this year and potentially 5 to 6 VLCCs next year.

Speaker 1

It's many, many, many years since we've had this supply growth and we're losing quite a few vessels to age. So I'm positive, but it's very difficult to kind of gauge, are we going to go straight into $100,000 per day market Or are we going to grind $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 It's an unbilled guess.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Maybe as a follow-up, have you seen peak tanker duplication as it relates to the ships that have already run the revenue? Or do you think there is more to go?

Speaker 1

I think there is more to go. We're already seeing what normally used to be Suezmax cargoes going through being put together and put on a VLCC in passing Capog could hope. We've seen exactly the same happening in the med, kind of East Med barrels that normally would go through Suez is now being put together on the VLCCs. So we are actually seeing that or expecting that VLCC utilization is going to continue to go up. And I think kind of in this slide deck, you can look at the chart where we kind of measure the amount of ships going or passing Cape of Good Hope.

Speaker 1

Yes, it has kind of plateaued and maybe potentially corrected a little bit down, but I believe this is going to just increase, obviously, assuming that the situation continues to the kind of the security level continues to be as bad as it is now in Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Jonathan Chappell from Evercore. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good afternoon. Inger, you've accomplished a lot in a short period of time, both with modernizing the fleet and then doing that financing pretty ambitiously and quickly and in a good way that you didn't change the LTV. As we think about 2024 in the market that Lars has laid out pretty detailed, the cash flow generation that's coming, Is there deleveraging that you'd like to see post this whole transaction of the 24 VLCCs and the refinancing? Or are the terms favorable enough for you that you're just happy to let it kind of amortize and any cash flow generation would then be kind of the old frontline manner of aggressive dividends?

Speaker 2

Yes. As you said, I mean, we are happy with that. We are deleveraging the fee or the debt by ordinary amortization going forward. So I mean, we're happy with this comfortable with this loan to value that we have after this refinancing. It's not high at all.

Speaker 2

It's about 53.5%, something in that respect of market values. So I think we're happy with just amortizing the debt going forward on an ordinary way in a way.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. And then Lars, I asked you this 3 months ago and then you went ahead and sold 6 of your old vessels. How do you feel about some of the remaining older vessels in the fleet? Is there still a pretty decent arbitrage opportunity where you think you can monetize some of your older non Eco ships as few as they may be and kind of help with the cash flow generation? Or do you feel like you're pretty content with the fleet as you enter this multiyear period of strength?

Speaker 1

I would say we're pretty content the way we sit now, to be quite honest. It's kind of well, you called it an arbitrage. It is maybe, but I think kind of the there is a lot of risk in the elevated prices we're seeing on secondhand tonnage. So and kind of just looking at the book values we're able to kind of take out here or the money we're able to take above book values tells us that we are at a very elevated point in the curve. So obviously, I can't exclude anything, but we're very much or pretty content now.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks, Lars. Thanks, Inger.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Craig Lewis from BTIG. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, thank you and good afternoon everybody and thanks for taking my question. Lars, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the dynamics around the new build market. I mean, we saw a competitor order a couple of these, I want to say last week. Just kind of how you're thinking about it.

Speaker 5

I mean, you kind of highlighted the outlook for the order book or the lack really thereof and you laid out a bullish outlook for the next few years. I guess at this point, how is Frontline thinking about maybe opportunities in the new build market?

Speaker 1

That is a very good question. It's still so that kind of basically due to cost of capital and the long lead times that the delivered price is kind of a bit higher than the or actually significantly higher than the kind of lift price that you pay. And I obviously noted one of our competitors ordering quite a few vessels recently at very, very or fairly high numbers historically. I think kind of the dynamics in shipping, and this is probably what makes shipping quite fun, is that when one actor gets his feet wet and suddenly every other actor is competing to get their feet wet as well. And I think kind of the newbuilding market has been a little bit muted for the bigger sizes for a while.

Speaker 1

And it's almost like who's going to go first, establish the new level of Korean built and Chinese built. There's actually been quite a lot of transactions that have gone through now that seemingly is happening on kind of as per last term levels. You see China newbuilds being done between $150,000,000 $120,000,000 And then you see Korea, which is actually for the first time in a very long time, establishing the $128,000,000 to $130,000,000 for conventional vessels with scrubbers. So we're obviously watching this and but a little bit from the sideline. We've as I hope you kind of start, Craig, we've been a little bit busy in the last quarter and a half.

Speaker 1

So although we monitor this, we haven't taken an active role yet.

Speaker 3

Okay,

Speaker 5

great. And then you mentioned that the dark fleet or the shadow fleet. I'm kind of curious, realizing you see a lot more data than we do. Is there any kind of way seek out the subsectors in that fleet? I mean, I've heard 700 vessels in the fleet.

Speaker 5

I don't know. I mean, I think you said that earlier in the prepared remarks. Any kind of color around, if you were the kind of best guess, what types of vessels are in that fleet? Because I think a lot of people are trying to figure out, hey, they're in that fleet and that means going forward, the efficiency or utilization of those vessels is going to be permanently constrained regardless of what happens. So any kind of views around that?

Speaker 5

What actually is in that dark shadow fleet?

Speaker 1

I think you can just start with just assuming every shift above 20 years is one way or another apart from very, very, very few exceptions that our storage units are playing a part in the dark or the gray fleet. So but that doesn't add up to 700 ships. So you need to kind of move into the 17.5 year category as well. I think you have to understand that even though we do make quite a bit of money in tankers these days, we're not making this. So it means that when you have a 15 year old ship, obviously, you'll take it through class.

Speaker 1

Then you need to do your 17.5 year class, then you start to think how much is this going to cost me, how many $1,000,000 do I need to put kind of in, so kind of trading at least in their own fleet or you start to look at the secondhand market. I think also the door is closing a little bit for those who've kind of been, say, a bit frivolous in considering who they're selling their tons to. I kind of applaud the recent efforts by U. S. Authorities and how they're really now tracking down and penalizing access that are dealing with either direct or indirectly with ships that will disappear into the dark or the gray fleet.

Speaker 1

Also, kind of the latest regulations from EU have also kind of put a pressure on this. So but it's kind of identifying these ships. It's actually fairly easy. But obviously, they use all the tricks in the books in order to avoid getting detected. Where we'll see the kind of endgame of this is when we start to see extended scrapping.

Speaker 1

And to this day, we have yet not seen that. We've seen 1 or 2 ships kind of being sold for scrap, but it's been extremely muted in that industry. And that's kind of what I would look for to say that, okay, so this market is now gradually kind of coming to the senses again. And also a trigger in this market would obviously be a catastrophic environmental event. We already have that actually in the Caribbean.

Speaker 1

It's obviously not been well, not obviously, but it's maybe not been covered enough by the media. But there, nobody actually knows who the ship was or who it was owned by or whatever it was, but you just have a massive sheet of oil drifting into to Baugua and that was. So but it's I think the easiest way of identifying these ships is basically looking at the portion of the fleet that has doesn't actually have normally the ticket to trade anymore, which is this 20 year threshold.

Speaker 5

Okay. Super helpful. Thank you for the time, everybody.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

And the question comes from the line of Sam Bland from JPMorgan. Please ask your question. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thanks for taking the question. First one is, we look at the order book on Slide 10 and it looks very high for the LR2s, 22%. Do you tend to look at that number just for the LR2s? Or do you somehow wrap it in with sort of crude Aframax and get one order book across the 2 of them, given that you can I guess you can trade an LR2 dirty? What's the best way you think of looking at it?

Speaker 1

Well, that's a good question, Sam. We've actually been if you follow our presentations over some years, we've actually been a little bit kind of confused ourselves of how we're going to do that. The thing is that the Aframax order book for like noncoated kind of tankers is extremely limited, almost negligible. You know and since the LR2 is kind of what we're trading, we've just decided to focus on it. But I mentioned it's 15 year kind of it's not a limit, but charters tend to not prefer a more than 15 year old ship because it's a precious cargo and the quality of coating will actually be reduced the quality of the coating will be reduced over the years.

Speaker 1

So the way I think about this is that kind of these vessels leaving their LOT shoe fleet, they become Aframaxes. So that's the Aframax fleet growth for you. Kind of. You can almost say, and I love you that's passing 17 years is for sure not trading clean anymore, or at least in most cases. So that's also kind of why we've just focused on the The Aframax fleet is obviously large, and there's a lot of various levels of quality there and various levels of trade they're engaged in.

Speaker 1

We tend to focus on the LR2s. There's a bit north of the 300 LR2s. And then we rather monitor who are kind of trading clean and who are trading dirty. And right now, at least the last intelligence I saw, we're about of that 300 plus fleet. We're at least up in 80% trading fleet in this space.

Speaker 6

Okay. Understood. The other one was you made a comment earlier in the presentation around how rates sort of around Red Sea locations may have some sort of I'm not sure you're afraid, like some kind of reset needed to kind of reflect the new trading patterns and routes. Is it like some of the disruption linked to the Red Sea, some hasn't it hasn't caught up in rates yet?

Speaker 1

Yes. It's the same thing. No, no. You're absolutely right. I was probably not clear.

Speaker 1

But the thing is that when you were trade and you're booking your cargoes going forward and kind of fulfilling your shorts or lifting your loans or whatever you do, it's almost everything is quite a few days forward, if not months. And then suddenly, you need to adjust to the fact that you can't pass through the Suez Canal and your freight cost will increase. So basically, freight cost will suddenly shut the arb. So oil will stay in the West or stay in the East because the cost element is not accounted for in whatever kind of structure you have set up kind of on the trading side. So that takes a little bit of time before it comes together.

Speaker 1

And also you have, to some extent, logistical constraints because, obviously, it's easy to take a VLCC from Vastra to Europe, but which port are you going to discharge the barrels into? Then you need to start to think that, well, I have a VLCC now, not Suezmax. Suezmax is far more nimble and easier to place and has far more options on the port side. And the same goes for clean. Although you would love to fill up the Suezmax with a product, well, you can't really discharge that, say, into Rotterdam because the berth doesn't fit a Suezmax.

Speaker 1

So that's just an example. But so all these things take time before you kind of pursue it. So I think the initial, which you saw on the clean side where the rate rocketed, was basically there were no ships coming from west to east because the trading was constrained basically on these long arcs. And then suddenly you were empty with ships in the Middle East region. And you had to price for freight had to price to a level where ships would actually go empty from Europe to the Middle East.

Speaker 1

And but obviously, we see now that, that's now kind of normalized and corrected. I think and this is just me thinking, I have limited visibility to the trading books of the various kind of majors and traders. But what we at least looks like is that we see these stems now being collected and put together and products moving from the east to the west and from the west to the east in larger bulk.

Speaker 6

And that would tend to mean that sort of you get a little bit more strength in the larger ships. Is that the implication?

Speaker 1

Yes.

Speaker 6

Okay. Understood. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sam.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to you for closing remarks. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Well, thank you very much for dialing in. And it's an exciting market we're in, maybe too exciting at times. But again, I would like to highlight that I think we are in a grind, a gradual grind going in the right direction. And there are signs in the staff that will have volatility going forward. So with that, thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Frontline Q4 2023
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