NYSE:CNA CNA Financial Q4 2023 Earnings Report $47.92 +0.18 (+0.37%) Closing price 04/17/2025 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$47.94 +0.03 (+0.06%) As of 04/17/2025 04:32 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast CNA Financial EPS ResultsActual EPS$1.33Consensus EPS $1.10Beat/MissBeat by +$0.23One Year Ago EPS$1.01CNA Financial Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$3.51 billionExpected Revenue$2.95 billionBeat/MissBeat by +$558.42 millionYoY Revenue GrowthN/ACNA Financial Announcement DetailsQuarterQ4 2023Date2/5/2024TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateMonday, February 5, 2024Conference Call Time9:00AM ETUpcoming EarningsCNA Financial's Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Monday, May 5, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 9:00 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Q1 2025 Earnings ReportConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Annual Report (10-K)SEC FilingEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by CNA Financial Q4 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 5, 2024 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 5 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00good day and welcome to the CNA 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralitza Soderobo, Vice President of Investor Relations and Rating Agencies for opening remarks and introduction of today's speakers. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:44Thank you, Rocco. Good morning, and welcome to CNA's discussion of our Q4 and full year 2023 financial results. Our 4th quarter earnings press release, presentation and financial supplement were released this morning and are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, www.cna.com. Speaking today will be Dino Robusto, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Scott Lindquist, Chief Financial Officer. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. Speaker 100:01:14Today's call may include forward looking statements and references to non GAAP financial measures. Any forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made during the call. Information concerning those risks is contained in the earnings press release and in CNA's most recent SEC filings. In addition to the forward looking statements speak only as of today, Monday, February 5, 2024. CNA expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements made during this Regarding non GAAP measures, reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and other information have been provided in our earnings press release, financial supplement and other filings with the SEC. Speaker 100:01:57This call is being recorded and webcast. A replay of the call may be accessed on our website. If you are reading a transcript of this call, please note that the transcript may not be reviewed for accuracy, thus it may contain transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of the statements. With that, I will turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Dino Robusto. Speaker 200:02:18Thank you, Ralitza, and good morning, all. In the Q4, we produced very strong results capping off another great year of excellent underwriting performance and robust investment income. Gross written premium ex captive growth was double digit for the quarter and for the full year, representing our 3rd consecutive year double digit growth. We achieved a 39% increase in underwriting gain for the quarter, which included modest catastrophe losses And we achieved record underlying and all in underwriting gains for the full year. Net investment income before tax increased to 21% 25% for the quarter and full year respectively. Speaker 200:03:06And importantly, in the lines of business with elevated loss cost trends due to social inflation impacts that we've commented on over the last several quarters, Renewal pricing continues to keep pace with loss cost trends and we expect that to continue as we move into 2024. I will focus on the 4th quarter, but I will also provide key highlights associated with our full year results. Core income increased by $97,000,000 in the 4th quarter to a record $362,000,000 Net investment income was $611,000,000 pretax, up $108,000,000 over the prior year's 4th quarter With our alternatives portfolio and our fixed income portfolio contributing almost equally to the increased income. Our P and C operations produced a core income of CAD434 1,000,000 up CAD92 1,000,000 in the 4th quarter. The all in combined ratio improved to 92.1%, a decrease of 1.6 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting relatively benign pre tax catastrophe losses of $22,000,000 or one point of the combined ratio and favorable prior period development of 0.3 points. Speaker 200:04:31The P and C underlying combined ratio was 91.4% in the quarter and represents the 12th consecutive quarter, it has been below 92%. The underlying loss ratio in the Q4 of 2023 was 59.9%, consistent with the Q4 of 2022. Expense ratio of 31.2% was up slightly from last year. As usual, Scott will provide more details on expenses. In the quarter, we continued to achieve strong production performance with 10% growth in both gross written premium ex captives And net written premium. Speaker 200:05:17Renewal premium change was 5% in the quarter, down a point from the prior quarter. Earned rate and the portion of exposure change that acts like rate was largely consistent with our estimate of long run loss cost trends, which was unchanged this quarter. Let me add some additional color on the pricing environment as the individual lines within P&C are at varying stages of their unique cycle dynamics, given their respective loss cost pressures, different starting points in terms of profitability and the cumulative rate level changes achieved in recent years for each line. Lines of business that have been impacted by social inflation have seen rate increases accelerate over the course of the year, like excess casualty where rate was up double digits in the 4th quarter compared to mid single digits in the Q1 of 2023. Similarly, commercial auto pricing continues to with prices increasing 14% in the quarter, up 5 points since the Q1. Speaker 200:06:31Workers' comp rate change was low single digit negative given the continued strong profitability. Importantly, we are benefiting from 6 points of exposure change in the quarter for work comp and a good portion of that exposure increase is acting like rate. In our property line and the national accounts segment, We saw a deceleration in rate increases in the quarter, but they were still at positive mid teen levels. And when you consider that rates in national accounts property are up cumulatively about 140% compared to 5 years ago, The moderation in increases in the reinsurance and primary market still reflect a very favorable environment in property. Within management liability, our D and O lines continue to experience rate decreases in the 4th quarter, But we're less negative than any other quarter in 2023. Speaker 200:07:31We are hopeful that this portends some further moderation To avoid eroding the hard fought cumulative gains in D and O pricing since 2019 that we believe need to persist. To date, cumulative rates for D and O overall are still up over 50% from 2019 rate levels. And for public DNO specifically, they are up roughly 75%. All told, I see the competitive environment as largely rational and I would expect that to continue heading into 2024. In the quarter, new business growth was 16%, which was the highest it's been all year And it was driven by commercial where we capitalized on strong pricing and an excellent pipeline of new business opportunities. Speaker 200:08:28Retention remained high at 85% this quarter, up a point compared to last quarter with strong retentions In each of our business units, as we continue to lock in favorable rates as well as terms and conditions across the portfolio. Turning to our 3 business units, the all in combined ratio for specialty was 90.8% in the 4th quarter. The underlying combined ratio was 91.4%, up 2 points driven by the expense ratio, which was 1.7 points higher compared to the prior year's quarter, with mix driving higher acquisition costs as well as some additional Employee related costs. A strong underlying loss ratio of 58.6% in specialty has been stable for the last three quarters. Gross written premiums ex captive growth for specialty was +1 percent this quarter and net written premium growth was up +3%. Speaker 200:09:35Growth continues to be impacted by fewer new opportunities that we have commented on in previous calls, and we are remaining prudent on new business in the management liability lines until the competitive environment improves Further, our profitable Affinity and Healthcare businesses continue to produce mid single digit and high single rate increases respectively, staying ahead of loss cost trends for those classes. Insurity continues to produce very strong profitable growth. Retention was very strong at 89% for the quarter, with each business area and specialty achieving high retention levels. Turning to commercial, The all in combined ratio was 92.9%, the lowest in 15 years. The underlying and all in underwriting gains were the best on record. Speaker 200:10:36Cat losses of CAD17 1,000,000 added 1.4 points to the combined ratio and the underlying combined ratio was 91.6 percent, a 1.1. Improvement over last year. Gross written premiums ex Captives grew 20% in the quarter and net written premium growth was 18%. New business grew 38% and was broad based across the commercial segments. And retention was 83% in the quarter, consistent with the last renewal premium change was 9% consistent with last quarter with rate up 7%. Speaker 200:11:20Renewal premium change excluding work comp was 11% in the 4th quarter, continuing to readily exceed loss cost trends. For international, the all in combined ratio was 93% in the quarter with about a point higher of catastrophe losses, but that represents only CAD5 1,000,000 of cat losses in the quarter. The underlying combined ratio was 91.8 percent with an underlying loss ratio of 57.7 percent, which is down 0.4 points year over year. The expense ratio of 34.1% was higher by about a point due to higher employee related costs. International gross written premium and net written premiums were each flat in the quarter. Speaker 200:12:16International rate in aggregate was 2% consistent with the prior quarter And retention stayed consistent with the 3 prior quarters and a strong 83%. Now let me provide some perspectives on our full year results. For the full year, we achieved Record core income was almost $1,300,000,000 or $4.71 per share, up 54% year over year. The increase in core income was driven by a significant increase in limited partnership and common stock returns, well as fixed income securities. Core income also benefited from record high P and C underwriting gain this year And from a neutral impact on the Life and Group annual reserve review compared to a loss in 2022. Speaker 200:13:11Our P and C operations produced core income of $1,500,000,000 for the year, up 21% over the prior year. Pre tax underwriting gain was CAD585 1,000,000 and underlying underwriting gain was CAD 818 1,000,000 each a record high. The P and C all in combined ratio was 93.5% With a record low underlying combined ratio of 90.9% for the year and this marks the 7th straight year of improvement in the underlying combined ratio. The underlying loss ratio was 59.9% Consistent with 2022, the expense ratio improved by 0.2 points to 30.7%, the lowest in the last 15 years. All three operating segments produced very strong all in underlying combined ratios again in 2023. Speaker 200:14:12For Specialty, the all in combined ratio was 90.4% for the year and the underlying ratio was 90.7%. Commercial produced an all in combined ratio of 96% and an underlying combined ratio of 91.6%, both the lowest on record. For international, the all in combined ratio was 92.6% and the underlying combined ratio was 89%. Turning to production for the year, gross written premium growth ex captives was 10% this year and net written premiums were up 9%. New business grew by 11% to a record high of a little over $2,000,000,000 Retention was very strong at 85%. Speaker 200:15:02Rates for the year were up 5% and renewal premium change was 7% with exposures increasing 2%. Before I turn it over to Scott, I wanted to provide A little additional color on 2 items. 1st, on the social inflation impacted lines of business and the adverse development accident years of 2015 through 2019. And second, I also wanted to provide a little detail on the January 1 reinsurance renewals. The impact of prior period development was slightly favorable for the year for P and C overall with puts and takes By line of business and accident year. Speaker 200:15:49In terms of the accident year period of 2015 to 2019 that has generated adverse development quite broadly for the industry. In commercial, our general liability saw some continued strengthening for that period, but was more than offset by favorable development in work comp. Commercial auto, another line heavily impacted by social inflation had only slight unfavorable development for those prior accident years. In Specialty, Medical professional liability, which has also had its share of reserve strengthening in the past few years and we have spoken about this on prior calls, had a relatively smaller amount of adverse development for those older accident years, which was more than offset by favorable development in surety. So overall in 2023, the impact from this adverse period was diminished for commercial auto and medical professional liability and that is encouraging. Speaker 200:16:56For general liability, we had additional adverse development The court backlogs began to clear and new claim information emerged. And more Time is needed given the longer tail duration on general liability before we know for certain it's those years are completely behind us. At the same time, other long tailed lines like work comp and surety continue to play out more favorably than expected. In terms of the more recent accident years, the loss ratios are holding up well. As we have highlighted consistently, We took a conservative approach during the pandemic years where we suspected that social inflation was merely obfuscated and retained the most of the implied margin of earned rates in excess of loss cost trends. Speaker 200:17:52For accident years 2020 through 2022, where the social inflation impacted lines of Commercial auto, general liability and medical professional liability, in the aggregate, there has been little change to the initial accident year selections. Bottom line, our bias continues to be to react quickly to bad news, and we continue to take a measured approach reacting to any favorable indicators in the more recent accident years. Turning to reinsurance renewals. As you know, our property treaties do not renew until June 1. But a number of our 3rd party treaties did come up for renewal in the quarter. Speaker 200:18:40All of the renewals went well. There was some minor movement in ceding commission on a few of the treaties and most treaties renewed with comparable or slightly higher capacity. The economics of our reinsurance coverage and ceding commission remain very favorable on these lines of business. And with that, I'll turn it over to Scott. Thank you, Dino, and good morning, everyone. Speaker 200:19:03I will provide some additional information on our results as Dino indicated. Core income of $362,000,000 is up 37% compared to the Q4 of last year, leading to a core return on equity of 11.6 percent and reflects a 21% increase in net investment income and a 39% increase in P and C underwriting gain. Our P and C expense ratio for the Q4 was 31.2%, which is about flat with last year's 4th quarter. Overall, higher net earned premium was offset by higher employee related costs, including incentive compensation and legacy pension plan costs. As I have noted in prior calls, there will be a certain amount of variability quarter to quarter. Speaker 200:19:50However, we continue to believe an expense ratio of 31% is a reasonable run rate for 2024. The P and C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was 0 point 3 points favorable in the current quarter. Favorable development in the Specialty segment was driven by surety and was offset by management and professional liability. In the Commercial segment, favorable development in workers' compensation was partially offset by unfavorable development in general liability and commercial auto. The paid to incurred ratio was 0.72 for the 4th quarter and 0.8 for the full year 2023, which is about flat with 2022 and in fact has been relatively stable since the beginning of the pandemic. Speaker 200:20:39We do see some fluctuation quarter to quarter, so we tend to take a longer view of this metric. Our corporate segment produced a core loss of 76,000,000 in the Q4 compared to a $52,000,000 loss in the Q4 of 2022. The loss this quarter includes the results of our annual asbestos and environmental reserve review. The results of this review included a non economic after tax charge of $24,000,000 driven by the strengthening of reserves associated with higher defense and indemnity costs on existing claims as well as lower expected ceded recoveries prior to the application of our loss portfolio transfer cover that we entered into in 2010. Following this review, our cumulative incurred losses of 3 point $6,000,000,000 remains within the $4,000,000,000 LPG limit, while cumulative paid losses are $2,500,000,000 You will recall from the previous year's reviews that there is a timing difference with respect to recognizing the benefit of the cover relative to incurred losses as we can only do so in proportion to the paid losses recovered under the treaty. Speaker 200:21:55As such, holding all else constant, The loss recognized today will be recaptured over time through the amortization of a deferred accounting gain as paid losses ultimately catch up with incurred losses. As of year end 2023, we have $417,000,000 of deferred gain on our balance sheet that will be recaptured over time. This quarter's results also include a $12,000,000 after tax charge related to unfavorable development for legacy mass tort abuse guidance. As we have noted in prior calls, we performed our annual review of asbestos and environmental reserves during the Q4 and all other corporate segment reserves during the Q2. Although we will adjust such reserves in between these annual reviews as facts and circumstances warrant. Speaker 200:22:49Finally, the corporate segment was impacted by a $19,000,000 after tax charge related to office consolidation we mentioned in our Q3 earnings call. We expect additional office consolidation activities in 2024, Where we currently anticipate a corporate segment charge totaling about $16,000,000 pretax That will be spread across the 1st 3 quarters of 2024. For Life and Group, we had core income of $4,000,000 for the 4th quarter, which was a $29,000,000 improvement from last year's 4th quarter loss of $25,000,000 The results this quarter reflect a $33,000,000 pretax decrease in invest increase investment income, primarily from higher earnings from limited partnerships. As we have noted in prior calls this year, Our active in force management risk mitigation activities continue, including rate filings, benefit reduction offers End policy buyouts. The current quarter results include a $4,000,000 pre tax loss related to $33,000,000 cash policy buyouts. Speaker 200:24:06Full year results include a $33,000,000 pre tax loss related to $193,000,000 in cash buyouts of over 6,600 policies. We expect to continue offering buyouts in 2024 and the impact of GAAP earnings will vary quarter to quarter depending on timing and mix of buyout elections. Turning to investments. Total pretax net investment income was $611,000,000 in the Q4 compared to $503,000,000 in the prior year quarter. The increase was driven almost equally by our limited and common stock results and our fixed income and other investments. Speaker 200:24:51Limited partnerships and common stocks returned a $78,000,000 gain in the current quarter compared to a $20,000,000 gain in the prior year quarter. Fixed income and other investments generated $533,000,000 of income, up $50,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter. Our fixed income portfolio continues to produce consistent income, which has been increasing as a result of favorable reinvestment rates and strong cash flow from operations. The effective income yield of our consolidated portfolio was 4.7% in the 4th quarter compared to 4.5% in the prior year quarter. As of the end of the 4th quarter, reinvestment rates continue to be well above our P and C income yield and about flat to our Life and Group portfolio effective income yield, which is a longer duration portfolio with embedded yields more comparable to today's interest rate environment. Speaker 200:25:52Pretax net investment income for the full year 2023 was $2,300,000,000 compared to $1,800,000,000 in 2022. Similar to the quarterly results, the increase was equally driven by our limited partnership and common stock results and our fixed income and other investments. Limited partnerships and common stocks returned a $202,000,000 gain in the current year compared to a $31,000,000 loss in the prior year. For the full year, our limited partnership and common stock portfolio returned 9.4%. Income from fixed income and other investments for the year was $2,062,000,000 or $226,000,000 favorable to 2022. Speaker 200:26:42Looking ahead to 2024, we expect this trend to continue, albeit at a slower pace. We currently expect income from fixed income and other investments to be about $2,150,000,000 for 20.24 And we expect Q1 2024 to be about $530,000,000 which is about flat compared to Q4 2023 results given limited anticipated reinvestment activity. At quarter end, our balance sheet continues to be very solid with stockholders' equity excluding AOCI of $12,600,000,000 or $46.39 per share, an increase of 10% from year end 2022 adjusting for dividends. Stockholders' equity including AOCI was $9,900,000,000 or $36.52 per share. With the sharp decline in interest rates during the Q4, the net unrealized investment loss in our fixed income portfolio fell to just under $2,000,000,000 as of year end, a significant improvement for both the quarter and the year. Speaker 200:27:57Finally, we ended 2023 with statutory capital and surplus in the combined Continental Casualty Companies of over $10,900,000,000 which is up from $10,600,000,000 at the end of 2022. We continue to maintain a conservative capital structure with a low leverage ratio and a well balanced debt maturity schedule. Earlier in 2023, we issued $500,000,000 of senior notes, a portion of which served to fund the maturity of $243,000,000 of debentures in the 4th quarter. Operating cash flow was strong once again $520,000,000 for the quarter $2,300,000,000 for the year despite $193,000,000 in long term care cash policy buyouts during the year, reflecting both strong underwriting results and higher earnings from our fixed income portfolio. Turning to taxes. Speaker 200:29:00The effective tax rate on core income for the 4th quarter was 20.3% and reflects tax exempt interest benefit somewhat offset by state income taxes. Looking forward, we expect our full year the tax rate to be about 21% with a certain amount of variability quarter to quarter. Finally, given the company's strong underwriting and investment performance, we are pleased to announce we are increasing our regular quarterly dividend 5% from $0.42 per share to $0.44 per share. In addition, we are declaring a special dividend of $2 per share, both to be paid on March 7, 2024 to shareholders of record on February 20, 2024. Using this past Friday's closing price, CNA shares have a very attractive dividend yield of 8.7% inclusive of the $2 special dividend. Speaker 200:30:04With that, I will turn it back to Dino. Thanks, Scott. This was a terrific year for CNA with record levels of core and net income. Our P and C operations continue to produce strong results with record levels of underwriting and underlying underwriting gains. We achieved double digit growth in gross written premiums ex captives and record volumes of new business. Speaker 200:30:31The market is experiencing varying cycle dynamics by class of business and we have navigated that environment very well and expect to continue to leverage profitable growth opportunities in 2024. Earned rate in the portion of exposure that acts like rate continues to cover our loss cost trends overall And rate is strongest where we need it most and in those lines particularly plagued by social inflation, We would expect price increases to stay higher for longer as well as continued robust property pricing in 2024. And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator00:31:15Thank Today's first question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Speaker 300:31:39Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Speaker 400:31:41Good morning. Speaker 300:31:43Dino, I did take it at the last statement about loss cost We have much more simple numbers. I think if we go back to 2020, 2021, You had talked about moving the inflationary compounding effect in aggregate from about 5% to 6.5% Over those 2 years and right now, in aggregate, rate is up about 4% with another 100 basis points of exposure acting as rate. Ira, those are pretty cumbersome numbers. But Can you talk about how we should feel confident that the current rate environment is covering the loss costs if the numbers maybe don't seem to, I guess factoring a number above 6.5 percent? Speaker 200:32:35Yes. So thanks, Josh. So our loss cost trends Are running somewhere between 6% and 6.5%. They had gone up as you pointed out. And At the time, I thought, okay, maybe 6.5%, but there's somewhere in and around 6% and 6.5%. Speaker 200:32:57And I commented on earned rate. Obviously, the earned portion of the rate is higher and the exposure gains. And Exposure gains about half of it acting as rate is different in different points. The work comp is probably a little bit more than half and it was up 6% the exposure. So I think what I was splitting here is that you're covering the long run loss cost trends. Speaker 200:33:24And I think importantly, Josh, is why I tried to add a little bit more information on where I see the social inflation impacted lines because those were the ones That had the moving target that increased was that indeed what was increasing it from the 4.5% to 5% And we're starting to see continued acceleration in those lines. So we feel very good going into 20 We should be able to continue to cover the lost cost trends. Can you give us a Speaker 300:34:01little granularity about workers' comp versus commercial auto? Obviously workers' comp is helping the numbers, The loss rates are much better than anticipated and commercial auto is doing the opposite direction. How much of a weight on your numbers is commercial auto? How much of a lift on your numbers is workers' comp? And given where the rate environment in is what do you expect the trend will be for next year? Speaker 200:34:27Yes. So let me try to parse it out this way. So commercial auto loss cost trends, as we indicated, they are above the average. And in fact, they're probably at high single digit loss cost trends now. And we noticed That moving up at the beginning of the year, which is why at the beginning of the year, We had about 9 points of rate on commercial auto, but now it's 14 points because we just made the decision, Look, we've got to push harder or we're not going to get to the other end of this thing on commercial auto. Speaker 200:35:06And I think it's gone up from 9 to 11 to 14 And it's early in January, but still looking very strong. Comp on the other hand, even with medical inflation up a little bit, Still the long run loss cost trends are below the overall average, clearly below our long term assumptions And rate even though slightly negative with a very strong exposure growth, we think that dynamic continues or the combination of the 2 continues to be quite favorable for us going forward. Hope that helps. Speaker 300:35:47And if I can add one more philosophical, it's been a very long time since workers' comp has been poor and it's been a very long time since Commercial auto has been good. Is there anything to think about these two lines that something has permanently changed in them or it's just unusual factors that have made each of those cycles more extreme than they should have been? Speaker 200:36:11Yes. And so first of all, Josh, just to emphasize your point about each of their cycles, right? They are each unique cycles. And I do think we need to think about our business going forward As unique cycles rather than the classic, oh, the hard market now it's going to go soft. And what I would just say on comp, obviously, Different dynamics because of the regulatory impact and many of the changes that happened over 10 years have really stuck and that's fantastic and I think continues. Speaker 200:36:46Commercial auto, clearly, It appears that a lot more rate was needed even earlier and maybe in general a little slow To respond, the only thing I would say there is because commercial auto to a large extent gets packaged with other very profitable lines of business. You're selling it with your package policy, with your work comps are very profitable. And so you put it all together and you might be a little bit more tolerant. However, you cannot treat auto as a commercial loss leader and I think there is an awareness for that and I do expect that the pressure, the upward pressure on pricing is going to continue As because and it's part of my comment on rational pricing environment, I do think We're looking at it all in separate cycles and going after each one of them. And so that's probably what I could add. Speaker 300:37:52Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Operator00:38:03Our next question comes from Meyer Shields at KBW. Please go ahead. Speaker 200:38:08Great. Thanks so much. Most of Speaker 400:38:10my questions are really smaller in the scope, but you talked about medical inflation and workers' compensation Picking up a little, what about other lines that also have medical exposure? Is the same trend showing up? Speaker 200:38:24Yes, I think it's there's a little bit of pressure on medical, but it's still relatively small and captured within our lost cost trends. Okay, excellent. You mentioned in Speaker 400:38:39your comments that D and O Price decreases or rate decreases are slowing down. All in, I guess, financial institutions and management liability rate decreases got a little bit bigger Then in the Q3, so what lines are seeing the accelerated decline? Speaker 200:38:56Yes. So in the Q4 because what we call FIML, it's got a lot of lines of business in there. So In the quarter, you had a seasonality mix because we had a lot more of what is our miscellaneous professional E and O business and in the Q4, it's about 2 times the sort of average quarter. And in there, in particular with some of the larger accounts on those lines of business and many of them excess just had higher rate increases. So if you then break out 2 of the other Sort of larger lines, as you pointed out, the D and O, we saw some moderation. Speaker 200:39:39The other one is cyber, but there too, Although still negative, we saw some slight moderation also in cyber, but the seasonality mix of miscellaneous professional is what caused it, Meyer. Okay, perfect. And then final question. In international, Speaker 400:40:03The gap between rate change and premium change, I guess there wasn't, they were both 2%. Recent quarters have had somewhere between, I guess, 3 points and 5 points of what we would assume are exposure unit growth. So hoping you could Speaker 200:40:17talk about what's changing there. Yes. Thank you. First of all, just to remind Every one of our definition of the exposure. So you have the classic sort of valuation increases In there or as companies, the sales go up and you capture. Speaker 200:40:37But whenever we have changes in in particular on different towers and we bring those down, that will show up as negative exposure. And in the quarter, in particular, in international, we did come down on some property towers and also on some healthcare and that more than offset the still increasing valuation increases that we're getting. So it is because we would put them together, it's the offset from the change in participation. Speaker 400:41:15Okay. So if I understand that correctly, there's still, if we could isolate somehow just the exposure component acting as Operator00:41:31And this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Dino Robusto for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:41:38Thank you very much, everyone. Operator00:41:42Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallCNA Financial Q4 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Annual report(10-K) CNA Financial Earnings HeadlinesCNA Financial: What Are You MissingApril 15, 2025 | forbes.comCNA Financial to Report First Quarter 2025 Results on May 5 | CNA Stock NewsApril 15, 2025 | gurufocus.comMy prediction is coming trueWe've developed a surprisingly effective way to see which stocks could double during massive shake-ups, by using a secret we tested against every horrible thing that's happened to our financial system since 1991.April 20, 2025 | InvestorPlace (Ad)CNA Financial to Report First Quarter 2025 Results on May 5April 15, 2025 | prnewswire.comInvesting in CNA Financial (NYSE:CNA) five years ago would have delivered you a 156% gainMarch 27, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comCNA Stock: High-Yielding Insurance Pick Offers More Than Just Regular DividendsMarch 20, 2025 | incomeinvestors.comSee More CNA Financial Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like CNA Financial? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on CNA Financial and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About CNA FinancialCNA Financial (NYSE:CNA) provides commercial property and casualty insurance products in the United States and internationally. It operates through Specialty, Commercial, International, Life & Group, and Corporate & Other segments. The company offers professional liability coverages and risk management services to various professional firms, including architects, real estate agents, and accounting and law firms; directors and officers, employment practices, fiduciary, and fidelity and cyber coverages to small and mid-size firms, public and privately held firms, and not-for-profit organizations; professional and general liability, as well as associated casualty coverages for healthcare industry; surety and fidelity bonds; and warranty and alternative risks products. It also provides property, marine, boiler, and machinery coverage insurance products; casualty insurance products comprising workers' compensation, general and product liability, commercial auto, umbrella, and excess and surplus coverages; specialized loss-sensitive insurance programs and total risk management services; and run-off long term care policies. The company was founded in 1853 and is based in Chicago, Illinois. CNA Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Loews Corporation.View CNA Financial ProfileRead more More Earnings Resources from MarketBeat Earnings Tools Today's Earnings Tomorrow's Earnings Next Week's Earnings Upcoming Earnings Calls Earnings Newsletter Earnings Call Transcripts Earnings Beats & Misses Corporate Guidance Earnings Screener Earnings By Country U.S. Earnings Reports Canadian Earnings Reports U.K. Earnings Reports Latest Articles Archer Aviation Unveils NYC Network Ahead of Key Earnings Report3 Reasons to Like the Look of Amazon Ahead of EarningsTesla Stock Eyes Breakout With Earnings on DeckJohnson & Johnson Earnings Were More Good Than Bad—Time to Buy? 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There are 5 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00good day and welcome to the CNA 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralitza Soderobo, Vice President of Investor Relations and Rating Agencies for opening remarks and introduction of today's speakers. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:44Thank you, Rocco. Good morning, and welcome to CNA's discussion of our Q4 and full year 2023 financial results. Our 4th quarter earnings press release, presentation and financial supplement were released this morning and are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, www.cna.com. Speaking today will be Dino Robusto, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Scott Lindquist, Chief Financial Officer. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. Speaker 100:01:14Today's call may include forward looking statements and references to non GAAP financial measures. Any forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made during the call. Information concerning those risks is contained in the earnings press release and in CNA's most recent SEC filings. In addition to the forward looking statements speak only as of today, Monday, February 5, 2024. CNA expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements made during this Regarding non GAAP measures, reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and other information have been provided in our earnings press release, financial supplement and other filings with the SEC. Speaker 100:01:57This call is being recorded and webcast. A replay of the call may be accessed on our website. If you are reading a transcript of this call, please note that the transcript may not be reviewed for accuracy, thus it may contain transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of the statements. With that, I will turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Dino Robusto. Speaker 200:02:18Thank you, Ralitza, and good morning, all. In the Q4, we produced very strong results capping off another great year of excellent underwriting performance and robust investment income. Gross written premium ex captive growth was double digit for the quarter and for the full year, representing our 3rd consecutive year double digit growth. We achieved a 39% increase in underwriting gain for the quarter, which included modest catastrophe losses And we achieved record underlying and all in underwriting gains for the full year. Net investment income before tax increased to 21% 25% for the quarter and full year respectively. Speaker 200:03:06And importantly, in the lines of business with elevated loss cost trends due to social inflation impacts that we've commented on over the last several quarters, Renewal pricing continues to keep pace with loss cost trends and we expect that to continue as we move into 2024. I will focus on the 4th quarter, but I will also provide key highlights associated with our full year results. Core income increased by $97,000,000 in the 4th quarter to a record $362,000,000 Net investment income was $611,000,000 pretax, up $108,000,000 over the prior year's 4th quarter With our alternatives portfolio and our fixed income portfolio contributing almost equally to the increased income. Our P and C operations produced a core income of CAD434 1,000,000 up CAD92 1,000,000 in the 4th quarter. The all in combined ratio improved to 92.1%, a decrease of 1.6 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting relatively benign pre tax catastrophe losses of $22,000,000 or one point of the combined ratio and favorable prior period development of 0.3 points. Speaker 200:04:31The P and C underlying combined ratio was 91.4% in the quarter and represents the 12th consecutive quarter, it has been below 92%. The underlying loss ratio in the Q4 of 2023 was 59.9%, consistent with the Q4 of 2022. Expense ratio of 31.2% was up slightly from last year. As usual, Scott will provide more details on expenses. In the quarter, we continued to achieve strong production performance with 10% growth in both gross written premium ex captives And net written premium. Speaker 200:05:17Renewal premium change was 5% in the quarter, down a point from the prior quarter. Earned rate and the portion of exposure change that acts like rate was largely consistent with our estimate of long run loss cost trends, which was unchanged this quarter. Let me add some additional color on the pricing environment as the individual lines within P&C are at varying stages of their unique cycle dynamics, given their respective loss cost pressures, different starting points in terms of profitability and the cumulative rate level changes achieved in recent years for each line. Lines of business that have been impacted by social inflation have seen rate increases accelerate over the course of the year, like excess casualty where rate was up double digits in the 4th quarter compared to mid single digits in the Q1 of 2023. Similarly, commercial auto pricing continues to with prices increasing 14% in the quarter, up 5 points since the Q1. Speaker 200:06:31Workers' comp rate change was low single digit negative given the continued strong profitability. Importantly, we are benefiting from 6 points of exposure change in the quarter for work comp and a good portion of that exposure increase is acting like rate. In our property line and the national accounts segment, We saw a deceleration in rate increases in the quarter, but they were still at positive mid teen levels. And when you consider that rates in national accounts property are up cumulatively about 140% compared to 5 years ago, The moderation in increases in the reinsurance and primary market still reflect a very favorable environment in property. Within management liability, our D and O lines continue to experience rate decreases in the 4th quarter, But we're less negative than any other quarter in 2023. Speaker 200:07:31We are hopeful that this portends some further moderation To avoid eroding the hard fought cumulative gains in D and O pricing since 2019 that we believe need to persist. To date, cumulative rates for D and O overall are still up over 50% from 2019 rate levels. And for public DNO specifically, they are up roughly 75%. All told, I see the competitive environment as largely rational and I would expect that to continue heading into 2024. In the quarter, new business growth was 16%, which was the highest it's been all year And it was driven by commercial where we capitalized on strong pricing and an excellent pipeline of new business opportunities. Speaker 200:08:28Retention remained high at 85% this quarter, up a point compared to last quarter with strong retentions In each of our business units, as we continue to lock in favorable rates as well as terms and conditions across the portfolio. Turning to our 3 business units, the all in combined ratio for specialty was 90.8% in the 4th quarter. The underlying combined ratio was 91.4%, up 2 points driven by the expense ratio, which was 1.7 points higher compared to the prior year's quarter, with mix driving higher acquisition costs as well as some additional Employee related costs. A strong underlying loss ratio of 58.6% in specialty has been stable for the last three quarters. Gross written premiums ex captive growth for specialty was +1 percent this quarter and net written premium growth was up +3%. Speaker 200:09:35Growth continues to be impacted by fewer new opportunities that we have commented on in previous calls, and we are remaining prudent on new business in the management liability lines until the competitive environment improves Further, our profitable Affinity and Healthcare businesses continue to produce mid single digit and high single rate increases respectively, staying ahead of loss cost trends for those classes. Insurity continues to produce very strong profitable growth. Retention was very strong at 89% for the quarter, with each business area and specialty achieving high retention levels. Turning to commercial, The all in combined ratio was 92.9%, the lowest in 15 years. The underlying and all in underwriting gains were the best on record. Speaker 200:10:36Cat losses of CAD17 1,000,000 added 1.4 points to the combined ratio and the underlying combined ratio was 91.6 percent, a 1.1. Improvement over last year. Gross written premiums ex Captives grew 20% in the quarter and net written premium growth was 18%. New business grew 38% and was broad based across the commercial segments. And retention was 83% in the quarter, consistent with the last renewal premium change was 9% consistent with last quarter with rate up 7%. Speaker 200:11:20Renewal premium change excluding work comp was 11% in the 4th quarter, continuing to readily exceed loss cost trends. For international, the all in combined ratio was 93% in the quarter with about a point higher of catastrophe losses, but that represents only CAD5 1,000,000 of cat losses in the quarter. The underlying combined ratio was 91.8 percent with an underlying loss ratio of 57.7 percent, which is down 0.4 points year over year. The expense ratio of 34.1% was higher by about a point due to higher employee related costs. International gross written premium and net written premiums were each flat in the quarter. Speaker 200:12:16International rate in aggregate was 2% consistent with the prior quarter And retention stayed consistent with the 3 prior quarters and a strong 83%. Now let me provide some perspectives on our full year results. For the full year, we achieved Record core income was almost $1,300,000,000 or $4.71 per share, up 54% year over year. The increase in core income was driven by a significant increase in limited partnership and common stock returns, well as fixed income securities. Core income also benefited from record high P and C underwriting gain this year And from a neutral impact on the Life and Group annual reserve review compared to a loss in 2022. Speaker 200:13:11Our P and C operations produced core income of $1,500,000,000 for the year, up 21% over the prior year. Pre tax underwriting gain was CAD585 1,000,000 and underlying underwriting gain was CAD 818 1,000,000 each a record high. The P and C all in combined ratio was 93.5% With a record low underlying combined ratio of 90.9% for the year and this marks the 7th straight year of improvement in the underlying combined ratio. The underlying loss ratio was 59.9% Consistent with 2022, the expense ratio improved by 0.2 points to 30.7%, the lowest in the last 15 years. All three operating segments produced very strong all in underlying combined ratios again in 2023. Speaker 200:14:12For Specialty, the all in combined ratio was 90.4% for the year and the underlying ratio was 90.7%. Commercial produced an all in combined ratio of 96% and an underlying combined ratio of 91.6%, both the lowest on record. For international, the all in combined ratio was 92.6% and the underlying combined ratio was 89%. Turning to production for the year, gross written premium growth ex captives was 10% this year and net written premiums were up 9%. New business grew by 11% to a record high of a little over $2,000,000,000 Retention was very strong at 85%. Speaker 200:15:02Rates for the year were up 5% and renewal premium change was 7% with exposures increasing 2%. Before I turn it over to Scott, I wanted to provide A little additional color on 2 items. 1st, on the social inflation impacted lines of business and the adverse development accident years of 2015 through 2019. And second, I also wanted to provide a little detail on the January 1 reinsurance renewals. The impact of prior period development was slightly favorable for the year for P and C overall with puts and takes By line of business and accident year. Speaker 200:15:49In terms of the accident year period of 2015 to 2019 that has generated adverse development quite broadly for the industry. In commercial, our general liability saw some continued strengthening for that period, but was more than offset by favorable development in work comp. Commercial auto, another line heavily impacted by social inflation had only slight unfavorable development for those prior accident years. In Specialty, Medical professional liability, which has also had its share of reserve strengthening in the past few years and we have spoken about this on prior calls, had a relatively smaller amount of adverse development for those older accident years, which was more than offset by favorable development in surety. So overall in 2023, the impact from this adverse period was diminished for commercial auto and medical professional liability and that is encouraging. Speaker 200:16:56For general liability, we had additional adverse development The court backlogs began to clear and new claim information emerged. And more Time is needed given the longer tail duration on general liability before we know for certain it's those years are completely behind us. At the same time, other long tailed lines like work comp and surety continue to play out more favorably than expected. In terms of the more recent accident years, the loss ratios are holding up well. As we have highlighted consistently, We took a conservative approach during the pandemic years where we suspected that social inflation was merely obfuscated and retained the most of the implied margin of earned rates in excess of loss cost trends. Speaker 200:17:52For accident years 2020 through 2022, where the social inflation impacted lines of Commercial auto, general liability and medical professional liability, in the aggregate, there has been little change to the initial accident year selections. Bottom line, our bias continues to be to react quickly to bad news, and we continue to take a measured approach reacting to any favorable indicators in the more recent accident years. Turning to reinsurance renewals. As you know, our property treaties do not renew until June 1. But a number of our 3rd party treaties did come up for renewal in the quarter. Speaker 200:18:40All of the renewals went well. There was some minor movement in ceding commission on a few of the treaties and most treaties renewed with comparable or slightly higher capacity. The economics of our reinsurance coverage and ceding commission remain very favorable on these lines of business. And with that, I'll turn it over to Scott. Thank you, Dino, and good morning, everyone. Speaker 200:19:03I will provide some additional information on our results as Dino indicated. Core income of $362,000,000 is up 37% compared to the Q4 of last year, leading to a core return on equity of 11.6 percent and reflects a 21% increase in net investment income and a 39% increase in P and C underwriting gain. Our P and C expense ratio for the Q4 was 31.2%, which is about flat with last year's 4th quarter. Overall, higher net earned premium was offset by higher employee related costs, including incentive compensation and legacy pension plan costs. As I have noted in prior calls, there will be a certain amount of variability quarter to quarter. Speaker 200:19:50However, we continue to believe an expense ratio of 31% is a reasonable run rate for 2024. The P and C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was 0 point 3 points favorable in the current quarter. Favorable development in the Specialty segment was driven by surety and was offset by management and professional liability. In the Commercial segment, favorable development in workers' compensation was partially offset by unfavorable development in general liability and commercial auto. The paid to incurred ratio was 0.72 for the 4th quarter and 0.8 for the full year 2023, which is about flat with 2022 and in fact has been relatively stable since the beginning of the pandemic. Speaker 200:20:39We do see some fluctuation quarter to quarter, so we tend to take a longer view of this metric. Our corporate segment produced a core loss of 76,000,000 in the Q4 compared to a $52,000,000 loss in the Q4 of 2022. The loss this quarter includes the results of our annual asbestos and environmental reserve review. The results of this review included a non economic after tax charge of $24,000,000 driven by the strengthening of reserves associated with higher defense and indemnity costs on existing claims as well as lower expected ceded recoveries prior to the application of our loss portfolio transfer cover that we entered into in 2010. Following this review, our cumulative incurred losses of 3 point $6,000,000,000 remains within the $4,000,000,000 LPG limit, while cumulative paid losses are $2,500,000,000 You will recall from the previous year's reviews that there is a timing difference with respect to recognizing the benefit of the cover relative to incurred losses as we can only do so in proportion to the paid losses recovered under the treaty. Speaker 200:21:55As such, holding all else constant, The loss recognized today will be recaptured over time through the amortization of a deferred accounting gain as paid losses ultimately catch up with incurred losses. As of year end 2023, we have $417,000,000 of deferred gain on our balance sheet that will be recaptured over time. This quarter's results also include a $12,000,000 after tax charge related to unfavorable development for legacy mass tort abuse guidance. As we have noted in prior calls, we performed our annual review of asbestos and environmental reserves during the Q4 and all other corporate segment reserves during the Q2. Although we will adjust such reserves in between these annual reviews as facts and circumstances warrant. Speaker 200:22:49Finally, the corporate segment was impacted by a $19,000,000 after tax charge related to office consolidation we mentioned in our Q3 earnings call. We expect additional office consolidation activities in 2024, Where we currently anticipate a corporate segment charge totaling about $16,000,000 pretax That will be spread across the 1st 3 quarters of 2024. For Life and Group, we had core income of $4,000,000 for the 4th quarter, which was a $29,000,000 improvement from last year's 4th quarter loss of $25,000,000 The results this quarter reflect a $33,000,000 pretax decrease in invest increase investment income, primarily from higher earnings from limited partnerships. As we have noted in prior calls this year, Our active in force management risk mitigation activities continue, including rate filings, benefit reduction offers End policy buyouts. The current quarter results include a $4,000,000 pre tax loss related to $33,000,000 cash policy buyouts. Speaker 200:24:06Full year results include a $33,000,000 pre tax loss related to $193,000,000 in cash buyouts of over 6,600 policies. We expect to continue offering buyouts in 2024 and the impact of GAAP earnings will vary quarter to quarter depending on timing and mix of buyout elections. Turning to investments. Total pretax net investment income was $611,000,000 in the Q4 compared to $503,000,000 in the prior year quarter. The increase was driven almost equally by our limited and common stock results and our fixed income and other investments. Speaker 200:24:51Limited partnerships and common stocks returned a $78,000,000 gain in the current quarter compared to a $20,000,000 gain in the prior year quarter. Fixed income and other investments generated $533,000,000 of income, up $50,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter. Our fixed income portfolio continues to produce consistent income, which has been increasing as a result of favorable reinvestment rates and strong cash flow from operations. The effective income yield of our consolidated portfolio was 4.7% in the 4th quarter compared to 4.5% in the prior year quarter. As of the end of the 4th quarter, reinvestment rates continue to be well above our P and C income yield and about flat to our Life and Group portfolio effective income yield, which is a longer duration portfolio with embedded yields more comparable to today's interest rate environment. Speaker 200:25:52Pretax net investment income for the full year 2023 was $2,300,000,000 compared to $1,800,000,000 in 2022. Similar to the quarterly results, the increase was equally driven by our limited partnership and common stock results and our fixed income and other investments. Limited partnerships and common stocks returned a $202,000,000 gain in the current year compared to a $31,000,000 loss in the prior year. For the full year, our limited partnership and common stock portfolio returned 9.4%. Income from fixed income and other investments for the year was $2,062,000,000 or $226,000,000 favorable to 2022. Speaker 200:26:42Looking ahead to 2024, we expect this trend to continue, albeit at a slower pace. We currently expect income from fixed income and other investments to be about $2,150,000,000 for 20.24 And we expect Q1 2024 to be about $530,000,000 which is about flat compared to Q4 2023 results given limited anticipated reinvestment activity. At quarter end, our balance sheet continues to be very solid with stockholders' equity excluding AOCI of $12,600,000,000 or $46.39 per share, an increase of 10% from year end 2022 adjusting for dividends. Stockholders' equity including AOCI was $9,900,000,000 or $36.52 per share. With the sharp decline in interest rates during the Q4, the net unrealized investment loss in our fixed income portfolio fell to just under $2,000,000,000 as of year end, a significant improvement for both the quarter and the year. Speaker 200:27:57Finally, we ended 2023 with statutory capital and surplus in the combined Continental Casualty Companies of over $10,900,000,000 which is up from $10,600,000,000 at the end of 2022. We continue to maintain a conservative capital structure with a low leverage ratio and a well balanced debt maturity schedule. Earlier in 2023, we issued $500,000,000 of senior notes, a portion of which served to fund the maturity of $243,000,000 of debentures in the 4th quarter. Operating cash flow was strong once again $520,000,000 for the quarter $2,300,000,000 for the year despite $193,000,000 in long term care cash policy buyouts during the year, reflecting both strong underwriting results and higher earnings from our fixed income portfolio. Turning to taxes. Speaker 200:29:00The effective tax rate on core income for the 4th quarter was 20.3% and reflects tax exempt interest benefit somewhat offset by state income taxes. Looking forward, we expect our full year the tax rate to be about 21% with a certain amount of variability quarter to quarter. Finally, given the company's strong underwriting and investment performance, we are pleased to announce we are increasing our regular quarterly dividend 5% from $0.42 per share to $0.44 per share. In addition, we are declaring a special dividend of $2 per share, both to be paid on March 7, 2024 to shareholders of record on February 20, 2024. Using this past Friday's closing price, CNA shares have a very attractive dividend yield of 8.7% inclusive of the $2 special dividend. Speaker 200:30:04With that, I will turn it back to Dino. Thanks, Scott. This was a terrific year for CNA with record levels of core and net income. Our P and C operations continue to produce strong results with record levels of underwriting and underlying underwriting gains. We achieved double digit growth in gross written premiums ex captives and record volumes of new business. Speaker 200:30:31The market is experiencing varying cycle dynamics by class of business and we have navigated that environment very well and expect to continue to leverage profitable growth opportunities in 2024. Earned rate in the portion of exposure that acts like rate continues to cover our loss cost trends overall And rate is strongest where we need it most and in those lines particularly plagued by social inflation, We would expect price increases to stay higher for longer as well as continued robust property pricing in 2024. And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator00:31:15Thank Today's first question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Speaker 300:31:39Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Speaker 400:31:41Good morning. Speaker 300:31:43Dino, I did take it at the last statement about loss cost We have much more simple numbers. I think if we go back to 2020, 2021, You had talked about moving the inflationary compounding effect in aggregate from about 5% to 6.5% Over those 2 years and right now, in aggregate, rate is up about 4% with another 100 basis points of exposure acting as rate. Ira, those are pretty cumbersome numbers. But Can you talk about how we should feel confident that the current rate environment is covering the loss costs if the numbers maybe don't seem to, I guess factoring a number above 6.5 percent? Speaker 200:32:35Yes. So thanks, Josh. So our loss cost trends Are running somewhere between 6% and 6.5%. They had gone up as you pointed out. And At the time, I thought, okay, maybe 6.5%, but there's somewhere in and around 6% and 6.5%. Speaker 200:32:57And I commented on earned rate. Obviously, the earned portion of the rate is higher and the exposure gains. And Exposure gains about half of it acting as rate is different in different points. The work comp is probably a little bit more than half and it was up 6% the exposure. So I think what I was splitting here is that you're covering the long run loss cost trends. Speaker 200:33:24And I think importantly, Josh, is why I tried to add a little bit more information on where I see the social inflation impacted lines because those were the ones That had the moving target that increased was that indeed what was increasing it from the 4.5% to 5% And we're starting to see continued acceleration in those lines. So we feel very good going into 20 We should be able to continue to cover the lost cost trends. Can you give us a Speaker 300:34:01little granularity about workers' comp versus commercial auto? Obviously workers' comp is helping the numbers, The loss rates are much better than anticipated and commercial auto is doing the opposite direction. How much of a weight on your numbers is commercial auto? How much of a lift on your numbers is workers' comp? And given where the rate environment in is what do you expect the trend will be for next year? Speaker 200:34:27Yes. So let me try to parse it out this way. So commercial auto loss cost trends, as we indicated, they are above the average. And in fact, they're probably at high single digit loss cost trends now. And we noticed That moving up at the beginning of the year, which is why at the beginning of the year, We had about 9 points of rate on commercial auto, but now it's 14 points because we just made the decision, Look, we've got to push harder or we're not going to get to the other end of this thing on commercial auto. Speaker 200:35:06And I think it's gone up from 9 to 11 to 14 And it's early in January, but still looking very strong. Comp on the other hand, even with medical inflation up a little bit, Still the long run loss cost trends are below the overall average, clearly below our long term assumptions And rate even though slightly negative with a very strong exposure growth, we think that dynamic continues or the combination of the 2 continues to be quite favorable for us going forward. Hope that helps. Speaker 300:35:47And if I can add one more philosophical, it's been a very long time since workers' comp has been poor and it's been a very long time since Commercial auto has been good. Is there anything to think about these two lines that something has permanently changed in them or it's just unusual factors that have made each of those cycles more extreme than they should have been? Speaker 200:36:11Yes. And so first of all, Josh, just to emphasize your point about each of their cycles, right? They are each unique cycles. And I do think we need to think about our business going forward As unique cycles rather than the classic, oh, the hard market now it's going to go soft. And what I would just say on comp, obviously, Different dynamics because of the regulatory impact and many of the changes that happened over 10 years have really stuck and that's fantastic and I think continues. Speaker 200:36:46Commercial auto, clearly, It appears that a lot more rate was needed even earlier and maybe in general a little slow To respond, the only thing I would say there is because commercial auto to a large extent gets packaged with other very profitable lines of business. You're selling it with your package policy, with your work comps are very profitable. And so you put it all together and you might be a little bit more tolerant. However, you cannot treat auto as a commercial loss leader and I think there is an awareness for that and I do expect that the pressure, the upward pressure on pricing is going to continue As because and it's part of my comment on rational pricing environment, I do think We're looking at it all in separate cycles and going after each one of them. And so that's probably what I could add. Speaker 300:37:52Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Operator00:38:03Our next question comes from Meyer Shields at KBW. Please go ahead. Speaker 200:38:08Great. Thanks so much. Most of Speaker 400:38:10my questions are really smaller in the scope, but you talked about medical inflation and workers' compensation Picking up a little, what about other lines that also have medical exposure? Is the same trend showing up? Speaker 200:38:24Yes, I think it's there's a little bit of pressure on medical, but it's still relatively small and captured within our lost cost trends. Okay, excellent. You mentioned in Speaker 400:38:39your comments that D and O Price decreases or rate decreases are slowing down. All in, I guess, financial institutions and management liability rate decreases got a little bit bigger Then in the Q3, so what lines are seeing the accelerated decline? Speaker 200:38:56Yes. So in the Q4 because what we call FIML, it's got a lot of lines of business in there. So In the quarter, you had a seasonality mix because we had a lot more of what is our miscellaneous professional E and O business and in the Q4, it's about 2 times the sort of average quarter. And in there, in particular with some of the larger accounts on those lines of business and many of them excess just had higher rate increases. So if you then break out 2 of the other Sort of larger lines, as you pointed out, the D and O, we saw some moderation. Speaker 200:39:39The other one is cyber, but there too, Although still negative, we saw some slight moderation also in cyber, but the seasonality mix of miscellaneous professional is what caused it, Meyer. Okay, perfect. And then final question. In international, Speaker 400:40:03The gap between rate change and premium change, I guess there wasn't, they were both 2%. Recent quarters have had somewhere between, I guess, 3 points and 5 points of what we would assume are exposure unit growth. So hoping you could Speaker 200:40:17talk about what's changing there. Yes. Thank you. First of all, just to remind Every one of our definition of the exposure. So you have the classic sort of valuation increases In there or as companies, the sales go up and you capture. Speaker 200:40:37But whenever we have changes in in particular on different towers and we bring those down, that will show up as negative exposure. And in the quarter, in particular, in international, we did come down on some property towers and also on some healthcare and that more than offset the still increasing valuation increases that we're getting. So it is because we would put them together, it's the offset from the change in participation. Speaker 400:41:15Okay. So if I understand that correctly, there's still, if we could isolate somehow just the exposure component acting as Operator00:41:31And this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Dino Robusto for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:41:38Thank you very much, everyone. Operator00:41:42Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.Read morePowered by