Colliers International Group Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 8, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Colliers International Fourth Quarter Year End Investor Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that The discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements contemplated in the forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward looking statements is contained in the company's annual information form as filed in the Canadian Securities Administrators and in the company's annual report on Form 40 F has filed with the U.

Operator

S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Today is February 8, 2024. And at this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to The Global Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr.

Operator

Jay Hennig. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to the Q4 conference call. I'm Jay Hennick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the company. Joining me today is Chris McLaren, Chief Executive Officer of our Real Estate Services Business and of course Christian Mayer, our Chief Financial Officer. This call is being webcast and can be accessed in the Investor Relations section of our website, where you can also find the presentation slide deck.

Speaker 1

In the Q4, Colliers experienced robust revenue growth in its high value recurring service lines. Over the past 5 years, Colliers has strategically transformed into a more diversified professional services company by adding significant recurring revenue platforms such as Investment Management and Engineering and Project Management. Today, more than 70% of our earnings comes from these recurring services, providing our company with more balance, more resilience and more predictability than ever and similar in many ways to other highly diversified Global Professional Service Companies. Throughout the year, we observed industry wide declines in one segment of our business, our transaction segment, our Capital Markets business. However, we expect a return to higher transaction velocity in the latter part of this year as interest rates and credit conditions hopefully stabilize.

Speaker 1

In the interim, pricing for most real estate assets continue to adjust as buyers and sellers try to find equilibrium that they need to transact business. With our nearly 30 year track record of creating substantial shareholder value, Colliers is poised for continued success. Anticipating a rise in transaction revenue later this year And supported by a very strong pipeline for new growth prospects, we are more excited than ever about the future. And with that, let me turn things over to Chris McLaren to discuss some highlights on the services side. Following that, Christian will provide his financial report and then we'll open things up for questions.

Speaker 1

Chris?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jay, and good morning. I'm proud of the results that Colliers Real Estate Services delivered in the Q4 and the full year. Despite industry wide headwinds, we have become more resilient than ever, demonstrating the strengths of our highly diversified professional services platform by both service line and by geography. Our outsourcing and advisory business saw 10% revenue growth in the 4th quarter And for the full year has grown 11% led by engineering, project management and property management. Our engineering and project management pipelines are filled with a balanced mix of public and private sector clients They want to work with us because of our expertise and ability to provide integrated solutions.

Speaker 2

Additionally, the growth of our property management Business has been driven by strong portfolio retention and expansion within our existing client base, as well as the addition of new clients due to receiverships in key markets. We expect the growth rate for these high value services remain resilient over the long term. As mentioned, transaction volumes remain subdued during the quarter because of interest rate volatility, tighter lending standards and pricing mismatch between real estate buyers and sellers. However, with expectations of interest rates stabilizing, we have greater confidence that transaction velocity will improve in the second half of this year. Importantly, during the slowdown, we have continued to invest in our business, filling gaps, taking market share and top rating leadership.

Speaker 2

Having been with Colliers for 35 years, I'm especially proud of our enterprising professionals and our culture, The bedrock of our success. I'm pleased to share that we have been named among the world's top companies for women by Forbes in addition to our inclusion on Forbes World's Best Employers List. I'll now turn it over the call to Christian to provide more details on our financials.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Chris, and good morning. I'll provide some additional commentary on our consolidated results, our financial outlook for 2024 and our balance sheet. Please note that all references to revenue growth made on this call are expressed in local currency And that the non GAAP measures discussed here today are as defined in the materials accompanying this call. In the 4th quarter, Revenues were $1,200,000,000 flat when compared to the same quarter last year and in line with our expectations for the quarter. Our recurring, outsourcing and advisory and investment management service lines each reported robust revenue growth Predominantly internally generated.

Speaker 3

Leasing revenue declined modestly across all asset classes. Capital Markets revenue declined 16% in its seasonally strongest quarter on top of a 43% decline reported in Q4 of last year with transaction sentiment continuing to be impacted by interest rate volatility and availability of credit. On an overall basis, our internal revenues declined 2%. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the Q4 was $198,000,000 down 2% relative to the prior year with margins at 16.1% versus 16.6% in the prior year quarter. The margin reduction was attributable primarily to service mix, which with a decline in higher margin capital markets revenues Not fully offset by our ongoing cost control efforts.

Speaker 3

We achieved cost savings of $28,000,000 during the 4th quarter and $94,000,000 for the full year. We have extended our cost control efforts into 2024 to match the duration of the expected transactional revenue downturn, but the beneficial year over year impact of this has been largely realized. Our initial financial outlook for 2024 reflects our best information Given the ongoing challenges and transaction market conditions. For the first half of the year, we expect capital markets and leasing transaction volumes to be roughly flat to 2023. In the second half, we anticipate year over year increases in activity, particularly in capital markets coinciding with our expectations of stabilization in interest rates and an improvement in credit conditions.

Speaker 3

In our recurring service lines, we are expecting mid to high single digit revenue growth. Investment Management Fund Rating for 2023 totaled $3,000,000,000 given the difficult market backdrop. We continue to see strong interest in our alternative investing strategies, which we expect will accelerate fundraising for 2024 to between $5,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 Our adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to outpace revenue growth as we gain operating leverage from the capital markets recovery as well as the benefit of additional assets under management and our higher margin investment management operations. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to exceed EBITDA growth As interest expense starts to moderate from both debt pay down and lower floating rates as well as a reduction in the non controlling interest share of earnings as our fully owned transactional operations rebound. Turning to our balance sheet.

Speaker 3

Our financial leverage ratio defined as net debt to pro form a adjusted EBITDA was 2.2 times at the end of 2023. For 2024, we expect leverage to rise modestly in the first half due to seasonal working capital usage, Then to decline to between 1.5 times and 2 times by the end of the year assuming no significant acquisitions. That concludes my prepared remarks. I would now like to open the call for questions. Operator, can you please open the line?

Operator

And your first question will be from Stephen MacLeod at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. Good morning, guys. Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Just wanted to circle around on a couple of things. Just with respect to the outlook, You reiterated confidence in a return to transaction velocity in H2. And I'm

Speaker 2

just wondering if you can

Speaker 4

give a little bit of color about sort of What your clients and customers are telling you about that to give you strong visibility into that outlook?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Steve, it's Chris here. So I think the first thing is we've had 18 months of a really challenging period for capital markets. We're starting to see some optimism and sentiment rising in real estate investment and clients are shifting from having discussions to making decisions as there's a clear outlook to interest rates mid year. So we're seeing assets come to market with more realistic valuations as well.

Speaker 2

So what we're seeing, I think, going forward is a gradual return and then picking up velocity in the second half of the year.

Speaker 4

Okay. That's great. And are there any specific regional areas or asset classes that are More robust in terms of activity than others at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'd say investors are looking at the industrial and logistics. You still have some strong fundamentals behind that with e commerce and onshoring. There is a low vacancy. However, it has crept up from, say, 2% to 4% to 5% in most markets.

Speaker 2

But there's still a thesis there behind industrial logistics.

Speaker 3

So there

Speaker 2

is demand around the world for that product. I'd also say in the living sector, student housing, built to rent, senior housing, because of the demographics and shortage of housing. And then thirdly, I'd say Prime A office, where tenants are looking to flight quality. They're looking for central business district locations, great transit, great amenities, ESG credentials.

Speaker 5

So those are

Speaker 2

the things that are in demand in the marketplace today.

Speaker 3

Great.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Chris. And then just turning to the high value O and A business and outlook.

Speaker 2

Just wondering, I mean, Chris, you gave a little

Speaker 4

bit of color on the prepared remarks around like project management, portfolio management sorry, project management, engineering and property management. Just curious if you can give maybe by each subsector within outsourcing advisory sort of What you're seeing and how you expect that to evolve through the year and where you're seeing notable pockets of strength?

Speaker 2

Sure. So let's talk about project management first. We're seeing some strength In a very strong business in Canada, India, we're the market leader there and India has got GDP of about 6.5 percent. So we're taking advantage of that and doing a lot of new corporate campuses there. We're seeing strength in our Dutch business and our Polish business From a project management standpoint, property management across the board, we're picking up Extending the portfolio from our existing clients, winning new clients.

Speaker 2

So I think that that's Universal around the world that property management is going well. And then on the engineering side of things, we've got some long term contracts and there's a great book of business going forward, and it's balanced between private and public sectors.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for that color, Chris. I'll turn it back

Speaker 6

to the line. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Daryl Young at Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, everyone. Jay, just in your opening remarks, you made reference to a robust pipeline of new opportunities. And I'm just wondering if you can give a bit more color around this. And I think in the past around the 2025 plan, you mentioned there might be additional verticals needed later in the plan to achieve it. So I'm just kind of trying to bridge the robust pipeline of new opportunities with this outlook and the 2025 plan.

Speaker 1

Yes. So it's a great question. And for those long term shareholders of our company, they'll know that acquisition growth is a key part of our overall growth strategy. We have a full pipeline of opportunities right now, probably fuller than we've had in a long time. They are however in line with our existing platforms.

Speaker 1

But they're bigger. They're more diverse geographically. They fill some significant gaps. There's lots of leverage to be generated from them. We don't they're not at a point where we've tied anything down.

Speaker 1

But as you would know, Daryl, it takes a long time to build relationships. We look for specific targets that we can partner with the operating management team, particularly in markets where We see huge growth opportunities. So we're very excited about many things that we've got on our plate right now. And we're hoping to be able to convert those over the next 12 or 18 months. But they for the most part would all be in existing areas, mostly recurring.

Speaker 1

As I think about it, most of them are recurring. The lion's share is recurring. There's lots blocking and tackling existing business units filling gaps across the world in base parts of our business and brokerage in capital markets and a variety of other things. But for the lion's share of our opportunities as I Think through the pipeline, it's recurring revenue segments virtually across the board.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. That's great color. Thanks. And then flipping to the capital market side, Results were, I'd say, impressive in my mind, particularly against some of the industry data that we were looking at. Could you maybe just give us a bit of color on where those market share wins are coming from?

Speaker 7

And is it a function of the people ads you've done across The last few years of the downturn or is it asset classes or anything there?

Speaker 2

Yes, I can give you one example. We've a record year in terms of recruiting in the U. S. The Colliers brand is really resonating in the marketplace. And if you look at the RCA volumes, as an example, they're down 41% in the U.

Speaker 2

S. And our sales is only down 25 that would show that we're having market share there.

Speaker 7

Got you. Okay. And then one last one just around EMEA and the margin trends there, nice recovery here in Q4 versus the 1st 9 months of the year. Is that something you expect to hold across the year? And is that sort of structural costs that have come out of that platform?

Speaker 3

Yes. Daryl, I mean, as you know, from history, Q4 is a very strong quarter In EMEA, and a lot of transactional activity happened in Q4 and historically the lion's share of EBITDA is generated in Q4. That was again the trend this year. I do expect going forward, we will have a stronger EBITDA performance throughout the year, given the expected rebound in activity levels as well as cost actions that have been taken in that region to adjust to those lower activity levels.

Speaker 2

The other thing I can add is that Germany and the Nordics were Specifically a challenging year last year in terms of capital markets. It's highly transactional for us and it's something we're working on in terms of balancing the business. Some of those markets in the cities in Germany were down 80%. So we expect Some activity to come back and it won't be as extreme as last year. So definitely improving in Europe in 2024.

Speaker 1

Well, that has to do, I guess, with the geopolitical circumstances, particularly around Germany and some of the other markets in Europe. But we are seeing some white shoots in those markets right now. Green

Speaker 2

shoots, yes. Green shoots. Yes.

Speaker 7

Okay, terrific. I'll get back in the queue and thanks very much guys.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Daryl.

Operator

Next question will be from Jimmy Shen at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks. So first, maybe just a couple of clarification on the guidance. The $5,000,000,000 to $8,000,000,000 of additional AUM in 24, I'm assuming that's fee paying AUM? And then that's one. And the second one would be, Would there be any baked into your guidance?

Speaker 3

Okay. So Jimmy, the first question, the fee paying AUM, The fundraising that we will do is predominantly in closed end funds And that will generate fees on that capital that's committed. So we'll be predominantly fee paying capital. And secondly, there are no new acquisitions baked into our guidance. Our outlook for 2024, There's a small amount of lab over from acquisitions completed in 2023 that's in the outlook, but nothing new.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And then just on the Investment Management business, infrastructure and credit seem to be where LPs want to allocate dollars. And when I look at your AUM pie chart, you do have 25% exposure to those two space. I'm just kind of curious as to how you're looking to grow these two strategies, if you are looking to grow them at all and whether you're looking to grow organically or maybe add a new platform in the pipeline, the healthy pipeline that you made reference to earlier?

Speaker 1

Well, as we have historically, we've shown strong Internal growth, particularly in Investment Management and Infrastructure Alternatives have been key parts of our growth. We have a small credit business that we inherited as part of one of the platform acquisitions. And so that has grown very nicely for that platform, but we'd like to add credit to our overall family. It's a Key component of our longer term strategy. Number 1, there's tremendous synergies between our existing business and having a credit platform.

Speaker 1

So we're actively looking to add credit in a more significant way primarily through acquisition. But if no acquisition comes or comes through, we'll continue to grow our credit our existing credit business, which is operated by an exceptional group of professionals and has Some very interesting opportunities to accelerate its growth on its own. But when you look at the pie chart, It is still a small piece of our overall AUM.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And then, sorry, just a follow-up in the pipeline of the different recurring businesses that you're looking at, how are the multiples or like how is valuation? We've seen fairly Big healthy multiples in the private market for investment management platforms. How are those multiples looking today?

Speaker 1

Well, that's a great question. The multiples have gone up significantly, especially for the quality assets that we're looking at. And it's not just in the I'm space. I think it's in professional services as well. One of the things that I think people overlook with Colliers is that we are very much a highly diversified global Professional services business with an engineering business that is circa $1,000,000,000 And if you look at the peer set in that space, our margins are as good or better.

Speaker 1

We do have a global growth platform. There's multiple opportunities to grow that business. And Those companies trade at much higher valuations obviously than Colliers does. And We have an environment where valuations have gone up. But the reverse is that the types of deals that we are looking for our partnership deals and they bring with them strong leadership teams that have stronger internal growth characteristics.

Speaker 1

And there are many and they are global. And so as many people know that have followed our story for many years, We've created value one step at a time. And we continue to think that there is exceptional opportunities for us to continue to add value to our business and probably reposition our company in some way to one that is much more highly diversified, high value, more recurring revenue, global in nature. And it's nice to see some of the peers in the traditional business, add start to add engineering to their mix of business as well. So there's lots of those kinds of factors that are swirling around, which are we consider to be very positive to our longer term strategy, which we've outlined in our 5 year plan among others.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Himanshu Gupta at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you and good morning and thanks for taking my question. So my question is on the leasing revenue. How has your outlook for leasing revenue changed compared to the last 3 months? I mean is leasing turning out to be much weaker or slower compared to what you thought, say 3 months ago?

Speaker 3

So Himanshu, I'll try to answer that and Chris maybe can jump. But our leasing was down 5% or 6% in the Q4 of 2023. And looking ahead, we expect leasing to be roughly flat in the beginning of 20 24% and maybe up slightly for the full year. So it's going to be steady. It has been relatively steady, but not expecting any strong rebound in that particular service line in the near future.

Speaker 2

In having a global business, there are going to be bright spots. If you look at Canada, we were up 5%, UK 11%, India 11 percent and LatAm 27%. Leases come up every 3, 5, 7 years. It's a regular business. People want to transact.

Speaker 2

There is the desire to upgrade and move into top quality buildings to make sure that employees wanted to move back into coming into the office. So as Christian said, we're looking at Middle single digit growth.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you. And maybe a follow-up. Your European leasing was positive in Q4. What led to that like positive growth there?

Speaker 3

Can you repeat that question you mentioned?

Speaker 8

Yes. So if I look at the leasing revenue by region, So if I see your Americas and Asia were down, but Europe was actually up on year over year basis. So just wondering, is there anything which is driving European leasing revenues to be higher?

Speaker 3

Yes, I can't think of anything in particular in Europe, Chris, unless you

Speaker 2

No, not particularly in Europe. The one thing that over the last couple of years That industrial leasing has become stronger for us. Pre pandemic, it was probably at around 20% to 25%, and now it's up to 40% of the leasing revenue. So you're seeing higher rents in industrial and logistics. So that's translating into higher fees.

Speaker 2

And then also there's been such a great demand for retailers and the e commerce in the on shoring that has been quite a successful service line for us.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. And maybe just last question on Investment Management, I'm Was there any fundraising done this quarter? Or was there any And was that offset by any redemptions this quarter?

Speaker 3

Yes. Himanshu, we did raise capital In the Q4 as we expected to do around $750,000,000 in the 4th quarter. And we also had some modest redemption activity in the Q4 as well.

Speaker 8

Got it. Okay. And maybe just last one, the AUM expected growth of $5,000,000,000 to $8,000,000,000 Is it going to be first half driven or second half driven? Any visibility there?

Speaker 3

It should be across the full year. And just to clarify, the $5,000,000,000 to $8,000,000,000 is the fundraising we expect for the year. So AUM growth will be similar to or higher than that number because AUM includes leverage on capital deployed.

Speaker 2

Got it. Thank you

Speaker 8

guys and I'll turn it back.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Stephen Sheldon at William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, everyone. You have Matt Fialik on for Steve and Sheldon.

Operator

What can you

Speaker 9

share about your overall producer headcount in both capital markets And how do you feel about your positioning when volumes start to improve?

Speaker 3

Yes. I don't think we're going to share the exact numbers on headcount, but I can tell you that, and Chris mentioned this, that we have Stronger headcount than ever, particularly in our U. S. Business where we've had significant recruiting success over the past 18 months. I think those trends are strongest in the U.

Speaker 3

S. But are also true across our operations around the world. We have

Speaker 2

a global initiative to increase the Market share in capital markets around the world. So we are out strategically looking at top talent in all regions. But I would say that there has been stronger emphasis in the U. S, which is the biggest market and the biggest market share opportunity for us to grow.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's helpful. And then How does the current lending environment compare to what you were seeing toward the end of last year? Just curious how things have trended with respect to the lending environment over the near term?

Speaker 1

The lending environment is not really clear Because you've got different lenders now and new lenders entering the marketplace. For example, there's a lot of private capital entering The marketplace, you've got smaller banks that are under pressure from regulators. But I would say generally speaking, the fact that interest rates have going into 20 and 2023, there was no clarity on where the rates might go. I think there's a general view now that the rates have topped out and might start coming down, which creates more certainty in the lending market throughout. The other factor around the lending market generally is that those that are under pressure are going to start to take action whereas in the past They were delaying their action.

Speaker 1

So that creates a more transaction activity, Obviously for us because people are encouraged to transact. And so I think With clarity or more clarity around rates and the hope that rates might come down a bit, We're in an election year. We'll see what happens. But with that happening with more clarity that Rates might come down more than would go up with banks being more active about dealing with loans that are Under some duress, all of that should lend to more capital markets activity towards the middle to the end of this year, number 1. And fortunately for Colliers, We invested very heavily in building a very significant debt capital practice where we have some 150 to 175 debt placement professionals across the U.

Speaker 1

S. In particular. And they are very busy meeting with clients and discussing various financing options that we hope will translate into transactions, whether they are capital transactions on the sale of a business of a property or the refinancing of a property or both. So we're quite excited about how quickly things can turn once there's certainty around debt. But at this point, There's positive signs, but we're not seeing significant momentum just yet.

Speaker 9

Got it. Very helpful color, Jay. And then lastly, just wanted to circle back on leasing. What are you seeing in terms of lease duration For office and then more broadly, just curious if there are any signs that tenants are becoming more comfortable signing longer term lease commitments?

Speaker 2

I think most occupiers tenants are looking for flexibility, but it is market driven. If you've got a market that has a low vacancy of 1%, 2%, it's really the landlord that's going to determine the lease length. So I think we're still looking at traditional 3, 5, 7, 10 year leases, but it's really going to be market dependent and an asset class dependent.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Divya Rao at Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Just on the investment management side, The FP AUM declined slightly in Q4. You said there were some redemptions in the quarter. But was the AUM decline driven by outflows or valuation marks?

Speaker 3

There were some modest valuation marks taken as well, Div, As well as some redemption activity. But Barry, I mean

Speaker 2

Just a quick follow-up. What are the outflows from the traditional real estate funds or alternatives?

Speaker 3

The traditional funds.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks. That's helpful. I'll get back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Frederic Bastiat at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 1

Hi, Gabe.

Speaker 10

Hey, guys. Your margins in the Americas region held up quite nicely in the back half of the year, which really speaks to the solid work you did rightsizing your cost structure. How should we think about the margin profile evolving over the course of 2024 as you turn your focus on growth again and really start loosening the belt? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Hi, Frederic. That's a good question. We've taken particularly in the Americas, very aggressive cost control actions through 2023. And as we look ahead, we've also taken action to on recruiting, which has been a cost that we borne through this period. But as we look ahead, we expect obviously revenues to grow in the Americas both on the outsourcing business, as well as in capital markets and to a lesser extent leasing.

Speaker 3

Margins will improve somewhat, But we do have some variable costs coming back into the business and also some incentive compensation that will come back into the business. So expecting a modest margin improvement in 2024 across the Americas.

Speaker 1

The only other thing I'd add to that is any acquisition growth, particularly in the recurring segments of our business would have higher margins naturally. So the mix might change. Mix might change.

Speaker 10

Right. No, no, correct. I was just more curious about capital markets and leasing, that type of the brokerage business, but You provided some great color here. Thanks. That's all I have.

Speaker 10

Looks like obviously positive outlook going forward. It's nice to see you and good luck on the year.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brett. Thanks, Frode.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question will be from Maxim Sytchev at National Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning gentlemen. Jay, Christian, I was if you don't mind maybe talking a little bit about some cross selling tractionsuccesses now that you have obviously a bigger portion coming from engineering and outsourcing services and they are a bigger part of the overall portfolio. Just maybe any KPIs you can share with us would be helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 1

There's cross selling All over the place. As we get bigger, The actual examples are smaller in dollar value, but Very significant cross selling between our engineering segments and our real estate segments because We're really in most of our engineering particularly around property level, we're helping developers set the land up for zoning, putting in the necessary support services So that our developer clients can build houses, can build high rises and so on. And so it gives us a great opportunity to stay longer with the existing client, that's one that's just one example. The The other example that just keeps continuing to bear fruit is from a project management standpoint, when our developer clients want to Build a multifamily building or an office building, not happening as much, particularly in North America. But there's lots of Medical office, there's lots of seniors, there's lots of other infrastructure assets.

Speaker 1

They need 3rd party project management firms to manage the construction project on behalf of the owner to ensure that the costs are in accordance with the budget and if not, There's immediate action taken. We've enjoyed some great cross selling opportunities between Our project management clients and our developer clients in areas such as that and we think it's going to continue to accelerate because construction is becoming much more costly, Much more sophisticated. There's a lot of value engineering that's happening. So the partnership between an exceptional project manager and a developer becomes more important than ever. So as Colliers continues to evolve as an organization, is to move up market and to be a more valued partner to our clients that are either developing and or renovating and or upgrading their buildings.

Speaker 1

The same thing applies with ESG and the initiatives that we have around ESG. And somebody has to analyze the building and determine how to bring the building up to A better standard from an ESG standpoint or as Chris McLaren mentioned earlier, to be more attractive as an office building, for example, to leasing clients. Well, once that determination has been made and capital has been allocated, somebody has to do the work. Somebody has to estimate what that has what happens. Somebody has to manage the construction project.

Speaker 1

Generally, there's a long tenure to that. It could be a 5 year construction project. It could be a 3.5 year construction project or renovation project of 2 years. So All of these services that Colliers has entered over the past 5 years, have all been additive from the standpoint of recurring revenue obviously, but I think your question is an excellent one because What it doesn't what we really haven't articulated as I think about it is the great synergies That happened between the various component parts of what we do for clients on the field. And so that's bearing some exceptional fruit for us virtually around the world.

Speaker 5

Just to add to that, callers

Speaker 2

has a culture of collaboration and I can give you a benchmark within the U. S, 20% of the revenues come from collaboration and cross selling.

Speaker 5

Okay. Is there a figure that you think you'd like to target over time? Like obviously, I understand you'll have to do work for kind of external clients, but Can the 20% become 30% in 10 years? Or how should we think about this?

Speaker 2

Yes. And this is something that we're always working on taking a holistic approach with our clients. So selling Multiple service lines and what we call is a sticky client, you can get 4 or 5 different service lines. So it's constantly part of what we're trying to offer to our clients and 20% is a great benchmark and if we can improve that, so be it.

Speaker 5

Excellent. That's super helpful. Thank you. And then just one last question in terms of sort of discount interest rates. And I'm not trying to sort of belabor it, but when you kind of think about sort of the back half resumption on the transactional side of things, Are you looking potentially, I don't know, like at the dot plot and assuming 5 rate cuts that are necessary to restart The transaction velocity, do you mind maybe providing a bit of kind of a range of potential outcomes that you are imputing into the guidance or maybe it's a little less mechanistic from that perspective?

Speaker 5

Just maybe any color there could be super helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, Max, we're not quite that scientific about it. Obviously, we can't control What the Fed is going to do next month or 3 months from now. But certainly, we gauge market sentiment. We have operators around the world that are talking to clients every day. And as Chris mentioned in his comments, these conversations are turning more positive.

Speaker 3

We're more engaged than ever with clients and looking at transactions that they want to complete both on the buy side and on the sell side. So, and it has been an 18 month period of quiet in the market. So there is pent up demand and we're seeing it. And that gives us, I think a reasonable amount of visibility here into the back half of the year and a resumption of some level of activity. I think it's a relatively modest presumption and that will hopefully be the catalyst for a more significant rebound in activity in 2025.

Speaker 5

Makes sense. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, Mr. Henick, we have no other questions registered. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Well, thank you everyone for joining us on this Q4 conference call. We look forward to reporting Hopefully positive results in the Q1 and convening another call like this. So thank you for participating and we'll speak to you soon.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude the conference call.

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Earnings Conference Call
Colliers International Group Q4 2023
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