Sonim Technologies Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 9, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

I would like to welcome all

Operator

of you to the Credicorp Limited 4th Quarter 2023 Conference Call. A slide presentation will accompany today's webcast, which is available in the Investors section of Credicorp's website. Today's conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation.

Operator

If you have connected to the call using the HD web phone on your computer, please use the keypad on your computer screens. If you are using a speakerphone, Please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to CrediCorp's IRO, Milagros Saguenas. You may begin.

Speaker 2

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Gianfranco Ferrari, our Chief Executive Officer and Cesar Rios, our Chief Financial Officer. Participating in the Q and A session will also be Francesca Raffo, Chief Innovation Officer Reynaldo Llosa, Chief Risk Officer Diego Pavero, Head of Universal Banking Cesar Rivera, Head of Insurance and Pensions And as Carlos Otello, CFO at Miban. Before we proceed, I would like to make the following Safe Harbor statement. Today's call will contain forward looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 2

And I refer you to the forward looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements to reflect new or changed events for CECOMES. Gianfranco Ferrari will start the call commenting on the highlights of our 2023 results and the milestones achieved by our main businesses, followed by Cesar Rios, who will comment on the macro environment, our financial performance and provide our 2024 guidance.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Medaroz. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We met market expectations for the Q4 and achieve resilient full year results in the face of one of the most challenging environments of the last 25 years, Excluding the pandemic. Despite the challenge facing 2023, Peru's current prospects stand considerably stronger than they did just 12 months ago.

Speaker 3

At the start of 2023, we were navigating disruptive protests and enduring political stability. The Q1 also had an inflation rate of 8% and a high reference rate of 7.75. Additionally, the country faced Cichlon Yacu embraced for the projected impact of a severe El Nino phenomenon for this summer. However, as the year ended, Peru demonstrated its inherent resilience by effectively managing inflation, maintaining low level of public debt and sustaining high levels of international reserves. The current stable yet fragile political environment, improving macro with inflation down to 3.2% and the reference rate at 6.25 as well as lower probabilities for our severe El Nino, historically contrasts with the conditions at the beginning of 2023.

Speaker 3

At Credicorp, we have strategically built a diverse portfolio of businesses characterized by a robust brand recognition and strong customer loyalty. Our strength is further bolstered by a solid capital base and a prudently managed loan portfolio. Our digital capabilities have been key to enhancing our transactional and funding advantages, enabling us to respond swiftly in volatile environments. As an example, at the onset of the year, when we foresaw challenging credit cycle in 2023, we quickly reassessed our risk appetite and adjusted the pricing of our portfolio accordingly. By providing payment facilities to our clients when they needed it the most, we also fortified our client relationships.

Speaker 3

We delivered a full year ROE of 15.8%, which includes a substantial charge in the 4th quarter attributed to expected losses linked to the El Nino phenomenon. This result was underpinned by the strength of our increasing NII. We maintain a resilient risk adjusted NIM achieved through disciplined interest rate pass throughs in the first half of the year. Additionally, we prepared our balance sheet for the declining interest rate cycle by reducing the duration of our liabilities and increasing that of our investment portfolio. Having strengthened our transactional value proposition, we secured the sustainability of our funding advantage.

Speaker 3

Finally, we leverage our cost effective digital platforms to accelerate growth in the retail segment. We reinforced our diligent approach to risk management, while maintaining a close connection to customers. This strategic move not only allowed us to sustain adequate capital levels, but also equipped us to anticipate and minimize headwinds in loan quality throughout the year. We remain committed to advancing innovation and our digital capabilities, which strengthened our competitive position. This approach not only enhanced our existing client relationships, but also paved the way for greater financial inclusion.

Speaker 3

For 2024, we anticipate an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Our GDP outlook is now 2.5% with a potential upside considering the lower risk of a strong El Nino. Moreover, the Central Bank's reduction of the reference rate lays the foundation for a global recovery in domestic demand and consumption. Additionally, we anticipate proactive government initiatives to facilitate the unlocking of micro projects in both the public and private sectors, particularly in Mining and Infrastructure. Next slide, please.

Speaker 3

Our well balanced and diversified business portfolio reinforce our results. In Universal Banking, BCP solidified local market leadership by expanding transactional levels and offering a seamless multi channel experience. Mobile Banking NPS improved with a growing digital client base. Enhanced IT and digital capabilities supported a low cost of funds, risk management and digital sales. These factors collectively contributed to optimizing efficiency.

Speaker 3

In microfinance, Mibanco Peru has been negatively influenced by the challenging macro I already described. While we adjusted our risk appetite and implemented stricter origination guidelines in mid-twenty 22, We acknowledge that these efforts were not sufficient. It took us time to fully grasp the impact of this concurrent event on our clients, But we have now made heightened adjustments. The legacy portfolio continues to impact our performance, Yet our most recent vintages demonstrate improvement. We continue to assess our risk management capabilities, confident in our tools for further refinement.

Speaker 3

In the medium term, we aim to diversify our business to increase transactional and fee based activities. Given the structural challenges in Colombia, We are evaluating the business there and will adjust our strategy to mitigate short term risks while maintaining focus on its long term potential. In insurance, our accelerated digital strategy has led to an improved client NPS, increased sales of digital policies and self-service customer transactions. We optimized distribution channels, notably in retail segments, resulting in the best year in its history. We leveraged Bancassurance and Yape to strengthen our presence and expect to deliver a long term sustainable ROE of 20 plus percent.

Speaker 3

In Wealth Management and Advisory, we've completed the first phase of the restructuring plan, strengthening the business and meeting our 2023 targets. We are on track to achieving our objective of a sustainable ROE in the high teens. At Credicorp, sustainability is integrated in our strategy, driving us to act as catalyst for positive change in the operating countries. In addition to our achievement in financial inclusion in 2023, We launched our new corporate environmental strategy communicating it in our first TCFD report in December. We're investing in our innovation portfolio to complement our lines of business, aiming for disruptive initiatives to contribute 10% Corp's risk adjusted income by 2025.

Speaker 3

Now let's have a look at how we are progressing in our most mature initiatives. Next slide, please. Our approach to disruptive initiatives involves a nuanced perspective, and early stage plus VC view that guides informed graduation decisions within our portfolio. A mature example is Tempo in Chile, which entering the scaling stage this year with a dedicated focus on revenue growth and monetization. Additionally, Yape intensifies focus on revenue growth and is on track to breakeven towards in 2024.

Speaker 3

Cesar will provide a more detailed update on Yape, where I would like to shift our attention to the rapidly growing tempo. We started with our prepaid payment business, achieving exponential growth in monthly active users and engagement. Currently, we're in the 2nd stage, leveraging our recently obtained license to issue credit cards, positioning Tempo as the 1st fully digital credit card issuer in Chile. We've also filed for a full banking license. With early indicators from Stage 1 and Stage 2 surpassing our expectations, we're optimistic about the strong potential of this new initiative.

Speaker 3

As we look ahead, our innovation approach will increasingly encompass the area of cognitive AI, where we are already making progress. We're targeting high impact transformations across internal processes, external engagement and most notably in customer experience through unique tailored interactions. Focusing first on productivity and customer experience, We're implementing short term value generation opportunities throughout specific use cases. We're also initiating the development of Formative Use Cases, envisioning innovation that propels us into sustained progress and evolution. This holistic approach is supported by a comprehensive framework, which ensures the responsible and secure implementation of AI.

Speaker 3

Cesar, please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Ian Franco, and good morning, everyone. In addition to the usual seasonality in expenses, This full quarter was impacted by provisions set aside for El Nino based on the best information available at the closing of the goods and by a goodwill impairment for Mibanco Colombia Main. I will share now the key financial highlights for the quarter focusing primarily on quarter over quarter evolutions. Favorable balance sheet dynamics allow us to deliver an increasing need despite sequential reference rate reductions over the last 4 months of the year. The structural loans grew 0.4% measuring average daily balances, driven by retail banking at BCP.

Speaker 4

In addition, the share of low cost deposits in our funding base rose to 54.5%, which represents an increase of 360 basis points versus the figure at the end of September. Other Corinco also evolved favorable As BCP took advantage of an uptick in demand for foreign exchange operations at the end of the year, Credicorp Capital registered solid increases in fee income. In contrast, insurance underwriting results dropped 13.2%, reflecting higher claims expenses in our P and C and life insurance businesses, which affected profitability this quarter. It is worth noting that we reported unusually high insurance underwriting results to the year. On the credit risk front, we significantly increased provisions by including an expense of approximately PEN250 1,000,000 to cover year end expectations for El Nino.

Speaker 4

In this context, The cost of risk increased 71 basis points to 3.2%, while our structured NPA ratio rose 7 basis points to stand at 5.6 percent. Finally, structural NPL coverage increased 101 basis points which stands at 102%. All in all, we delivered resilient results in our context marked by a larger than expected contraction in GDP and we have maintained sound capital levels of our Peruvian Banking businesses as a matter of prudence. Now, As the risk of a severe El Nino has faded, it is our intention, subject toward approval, to deliver higher dividend payout through the year to move towards our long term target levels. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

For the year 2024, the outlook for emerging markets look more positive, bolstered by expectations of lower policy rates and high commodity prices. In the United States, the slowdown in inflation and labor market rebalancing led financial markets despite Fed rate cuts in the Q2. The price of copper is expected to remain at high level, supported by the global transition towards green technology and despite a moderation of China's economic growth. Peru GDP is expected to grow around 2.5% this year with risk still to the upside. This estimate assumes El Nino continues to dissipate and the new negative shocks of Europe, a less restrictive monetary policy is in place and progress is made on key infrastructure and mining projects.

Speaker 4

The country's Central Bank has cut the policy rate by 150 basis points since its peak in response to Same deep in inflation and lower inflation expectations. Additionally, we expect the government to accelerate advances on key infrastructure projects, such as Chavimotec III. On the mining front, progress is expected on the Safranal copper project and the government is likely to approve an extension to Antamina's life of mine soon. Regarding Colombia, we believe that GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 1 0.7% in 2024. Inflation in turn continues to be persistent and stood at 8.4% as of January.

Speaker 4

The country's central bank delivered its 1st interest rate cut in December, a movement is repeated in January. Finally, in Chile, GDP is expected to register 2.1% growth in 2024 after stagnating in 2023. Meanwhile, inflation situated at 3.8% as of January. In this context, the country's Bank reduced its policy rate by 400 basis points since its peak. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

The probability of a strong El Nino over the summer has faded to the background over the last weeks and thank The multisectoral committee that studies El Nino phenomenon in Peru has made downward revisions to the probability assigned to this event. Currently, a weak intensity is expected in February and from March onwards and paying a higher probability to a non income. This is undoubtedly a favorable development and contrasts significantly with a scenario in place for our last call When the expectations of a moderate to a strong magnitude, El Nino was above 90%. We continue to monitor the probabilities assigned to El Nino, given The high volatility. In the current scenario, the economic is expected to edge up gradually.

Speaker 4

Next slide, please. DCP's 2023 results were solid despite unfavorable events this year, analyzing key quarter over quarter dynamics. The 5.1% increase in NII was driven primarily by improvement in the funding mix. Demand and saving deposits grew more than 6%, which allow us to optimize the funding base. Additionally, SME Pimea and SME Business Disbursement Growth, We Changed the Portfolio Mix.

Speaker 4

This Quarter, 1.8 percent growth in BCP's other core income was mainly fueled by the 11.6% of fee and FX transactions. In line with our previous explanation, provisions at BCP increased 28.9%, mainly due when a specific provision for El Nino related expected losses for approximately PEN200 1,000,000. As we exclude this effect, Provisions remained at high levels and decreased slightly by 1%. The marginal increase in wholesale banking provision was attributable to our base effect, while growth in SME payment provisions were triggered by a negative payment performance. Both of the aforementioned increases were offset by reversals of specific mortgage sub products.

Speaker 4

In this context, The cost of risk stood at 2.91%. Provisions for El Nino accounted for approximately 68 basis points of this CEO. On a full year basis, NII was bolstered by high interest rate and by a 3.8% increase in structural loans measure in average daily balances. This growth was led by SME payment working capital loans and mortgages, which grew 13.7% and 5.9%, respectively. Despite elimination of intercity fees, Fee income remained stable this year.

Speaker 4

Loan loss provisions increased 113.3% in 2023, driven mainly by a deterioration in the payment performance of clients that were negatively impacted by concurrent macro climate and social events. Operating expenses grew 10%, driven by core business IT expenses to support a strong growing transactions and the development of digital capabilities and investment in disruptive initiatives. Growth in operating income outpaced the expansion in expenses this quarter, which led BCP efficiency ratio to contract 190 basis points and stand of 38.8%. In this context, BCP's full year ROE contribution stood at 20.6%. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

As Gianfranco commented, Yape continues to scale. Its pace of revenue generation is Steady declining and on track to hit breakeven this year. At the close of the Q4, Yape had almost 11,000,000 monthly active users who conducted an average of 35 transactions per month, up 20% quarter over quarter. Nearly 74% of these active users already generate fee income. Furthermore, NPS increased 9 basis points percentage points year over year to stand at 80%.

Speaker 4

Growth in engagement fee income and NPS was attributable to new user friendly features in Yape's three business lines. At the end of the Q4, Yape has 12 functionalities. The payment business feature are the most used and mature, where top ups and bill payments were the highest contributors to growth in fee income. Monthly revenue generated in the payment business more than doubled year over year. In the financial service business, 2 features, 1 for insurance and another for multi installment loans were added to the initial offering of mono installment products.

Speaker 4

Monthly revenue generated by financial services grew more than 4 fold year over year. Finally, We see high potential in the marketplace where 2 new functionalities has been added to our discount and ticketing features, gaming and electronic sales. YAP increased its income per active user 35% quarter over quarter and it's on track to reach a breakeven despite a seasonal increase in the expenses for monthly average user, which was attributable to an uptick in transactions, the development of IT capabilities and expenses triggered after achieving specific milestones. Next slide, please. In 2023, Mibanco's results were negatively impacted by macro conditions, social conflict and climate anomalies, We generated higher than expected impacts on our clients.

Speaker 4

As Gianfranco commented, new portfolio BGS has demonstrated improvement, As we continue to assess our risk management capabilities, we are very confident that we possess the tools needed to improve and resume growth. On a quarter over quarter basis, NII fell 3.9%, which was primarily attributable to a drop in loan balances After we further adjust our appetite in riskier segments to focus on lending to better risk profiles. In this context, NIM decreased 30 basis points and stood at 13.35%. Provisions We're already elevated gross pull this quarter after registering a provision of approximately PEN50 1,000,000 for expected losses for El Nino phenomenon. If we exclude this effect, provisions failed due to loan contractions.

Speaker 4

From a full year perspective, NII increased 1% in 2023. This growth, as very slight, reflects the fact that the impact of high interest rate on loans successfully offset the effect of rapidly rising funding costs. Our disciplined interest rate management was key to maintain NII in 2023. Provision expense increased significantly this year. Operating expenses increased 4.3% in 2023 and remain under show.

Speaker 4

Nonetheless, a near flat evolution in operating income led the efficiency ratio to rise to 52.7% in 2023. Mibanco Colombia has been challenged by a deterioration in economic conditions, ongoing high inflation, very high funding rates and a reduction in the interest rate ceiling. Due to this context and the consequent deterioration in business performance, We are recognizing a contraction in this company's value and have registered a goodwill impairment of PEN64 million at the Credicorp level. Additionally, at Gianfranco mentioned, we are currently reassessing the business and redefining our strategy to better adapt to current market conditions. We remain committed to the long term potential of this business.

Speaker 4

Next slide, please. Profitability at Grupo Pacifico contracted this quarter with ROE standing at 17.9%. On quarter over quarter terms, net income decreased 45%, impacted by a 23% drop in insurance underwriting results and by nonrecurring items. The contraction in insurance underwriting results was primarily driven by higher claims expenses in P&C and Life Businesses. From a full year perspective, Grupo Pacificos net income rose 74%, primarily driven by Positive dynamics in insurance underwriting results in the life business, mainly in disability and survivorship.

Speaker 4

Profitability in disability and survivorship products was boosted by favorable pricing and volume terms secured under the Ciscone 6 option. Olive Life products such as Credit Life and Good Life also reported higher insurance underwriting results, driven by higher income and an important reduction in claims in comparison to 2022, still affected by COVID-nineteen. Finally, Net financial income posted a 14% increase driven by both our investment optimization strategy and an increasing interest rate through the year. All in all, these extraordinary results were driven by both the disciplined development of internal capabilities and transitory tailwinds. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

ROE for the Investment Management Advisory line of business increased this quarter and stood at 14%, driven by quarter over quarter income growth at our more volatile businesses. In particular, robust capital markets performance at year end boosted our capital markets business and our treasury results by 20 6% 90% quarter over quarter, respectively. In addition, income from our asset management business edged up and assets under management rose 6% in U. S. Dollars on a full year basis.

Speaker 4

Net income rose 53% as we market performance, favorable business dynamics in our Wealth Management business and a rigorous cost control program. Notably, treasury results reversed 2022 losses and Wealth Management income increased 11% As we took advantage of the rate environment to improve our intermediation margins, we managed to increase assets under management measuring U. S. Dollars by 9% and 11% in Wealth and Asset Management, respectively. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

Now we will look at Credicorp's consolidated dynamics. On a quarter over quarter basis, our interest earning assets mix shifted, marking an uptick in retail loans and the investment portfolio and a contraction in wholesale loans. In the funding mix, there was an uptick in low cost deposits and a contraction in more expensive funding sources such as term deposits. These dynamics, which unfolded in a context marked By decreasing interest rate allowed the yield on interest earning assets to remain flat, while the funding cost decreased 12 basis points on a year over year basis. Interest earning assets follow the same mix dynamics.

Speaker 4

On the funding side, the increase in term deposits and to a lesser extent in U2 2 banks was driven by a contraction in low cost deposits and secondarily by a reduction in bonds. These dynamics, coupled with the rerating of our asset portfolio led to an increase of 99 basis points in the yield of inter earning assets compared to 8 basis points increase in the funding cost. Going forward, we expect our balance sheet structure to support resilient margins In a decreasing interest rate environment, on the asset side, we increased the duration of our investment portfolio, we will take longer to rerate. Additionally, our loan book is growing at a faster pace in retail loans, which offer higher yields and are less sensitive to interest rate movements. These dynamics will provide stability to our asset yields.

Speaker 4

On the funding side, the recent strategic low cost deposits would help sustain our funding strength. In addition, the balance of term deposits, which are more concentrated in wholesale clients will quickly reprice downward, which will help lower our funding costs. Next slide, please. Recent balance sheet and interest rate dynamics led NIM and NII to increase quarter over quarter and in a full year basis, boosting core income growth. On a quarter over quarter basis, NIM increased 10 basis points and installed at 6.21 percent.

Speaker 4

Risk adjusted NIM fell 35 basis points To 4.10 percent, provisions for the El Nino phenomenon generated a negative impact of 45 basis points. Core income was boosted mainly by NII, which increased 2.9% quarter over quarter. We are analyzing the results for Fingco and FX transactions. It is important to note that gold lines have been affected by our operation in BCP Bolivia, where we charge fees to FX clients to offset losses and buy sell FX transactions. Excluding BCP Bolivia operations, Other core income grew 2.1% quarter over quarter driven by an uptick in FX volumes where BCP leveraged higher end volumes and higher fee income and Credicorp Capital.

Speaker 4

On a full year basis, NIM registered at 92 basis points in Apti and stand at 6 0.01%. This improvement more than offset the impact of higher provisioning this year. In this context, Risk adjusted NIM rose 9 basis points to a stand of 4.38%. Core income increased 11 point 4 percent on the back of NII, which grew 16.6%. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

Let's look at the dynamic of the structural non performing loans. As Belceb in 2023, our weak economic performance continued to impact client payment performance at Beach to a lesser extent than in previous quarter. On a quarter over quarter basis, growth in BCP's structured nonperforming loans was was driven by SME Consumer and Credit Cards. In SME Payment, delinquency was concentrated in all vintages, While every delinquency indicators of new vintages show improvement. In consumer credit cards, increasing NPL volumes was concentrated in loans overview more than 120 days.

Speaker 4

Mibanco's delinquency was concentrated in higher ticket loans where we have recently implemented tougher credit policies. This increase was partially offset by a payment of an overdue loan and additional loan recovery, both associated with the specific corporate clients. On a year over year basis, Structural non performing loan volumes increased mainly through SME payment, consumer, credit cards and Vibanco, driven by the same Those are both seen quarter over quarter. Wholesale Banking NPL was impacted by an uptick in overdue loans into a lesser extent in refinance loans from the tourism and real estate sectors. In this context, the structural coverage ratio stood at 102%.

Speaker 4

Next slide, please. Moving on to provisions. The cost of risk has risen and stood at 3.2% for the 4th quarter and 2.5% for the full year. The structural cost of risk stood at 3.3% for the 4th quarter and 2.5% for the full year. The quarterly figures reflect the fact that we included a specific provision of approximately PEN 2 PEN15 million for the NIMO phenomenon based on the best information available at the close of the books.

Speaker 4

Let me go through quarter over quarter dynamics for provision expenses excluding the charge related to expectations for El Nino impact. Provisions grew 3%, driven by a base effect in Wholesale Banking and by a drop in client payment performance in SME payment due to adverse macro conditions. These movements were partially offset by reversals for the specific soup products in mortgages and at Mibanco due to a contraction in loans. On a full year basis, provisions rose 105%, driven by retail banking and BCP, which rose across consumer credit cards and SMS payment due to an uptick in deterioration of older vintages. Provisions on Mibanco were also up, driven by a downturn in the payment performance of clients.

Speaker 4

The aforementioned was partially offset by reversals in Wholesale Banking through the year. Next slide, please. We will review the evolution of efficiency on accumulated basis to isolate the impact of seasonal effects. Expenses for disruptive initiative at The Credicorp level increased 60.6%, where the most relevant initiatives were Yape and Tempo, which accounted for approximately 2 thirds of this year expenses. Operating expenses grew 9.8% in 2023, driven primarily by disruptive initiatives at Credicorp level and within core businesses at BCP.

Speaker 4

At BCP, Core businesses fuel growth in expenses through an uptick in IT expenses related to increased use of the cloud as clients on more digital and transactional levels increase, investments to enhance digital capabilities and improve cybersecurity and move to attract more specialized digital talent. Marketing expenses, mainly driven by advertising to boost deposits and digital sales. Operating leverage remained strong at BCP and Mibanco operating Expenses remain under control, but operating income is still challenged. In this context, our efficiency ratio stood at 46.1 percent in 2023, down 142 basis points year over year, driven by positive operating leverage. Next slide, please.

Speaker 4

Credicorp's full year profitability was sustained by solid results at our Universal Banking and Insurance Businesses, which mitigated weak performance at our macro finance units. On top of the recurring dynamics, it is important to note that Credicorp's results were influenced by the goodwill impairment related to Mibanco Colombia by an increase in the withholding tax provisions and the holding level, which were set aside to cover the impact of unexpected increase in dividends. In this context, ROE for the full year stood at 15.8%. Credicorp's net equity in 2023 was bolstered by an uptick of $730,600,000 in other comprehensive income, which was mainly attributable to unrealized losses for the available for sale portfolio. Now, I will move on to the outlook.

Speaker 4

As previously mentioned, we expect Peru GDP to grow around 2.5 percent in 2024. Regarding loan growth, we are changing our guidance indicator as Reactiv We no longer constitute a significant share of our portfolio. We expect our total loan book measured in average daily balances to grow between 3% and 5%, driven mainly by retail banking at BCP and a slight drag down by reactiva amortizations. To ongoing shift on our loan book towards higher yielding mix coupled with favorable dynamics in our funding structure Should positive impact NIM accordingly, we expect NIM to stand between 6% to 6.4%. The cost of risk guidance is between 2% 2.5%.

Speaker 4

This range reflects the shift of our loan portfolio mix to our retail and a partial reversal of El Nino related provisions. In 2024, We will continue to invest significantly in digital transformation and disruptive initiatives to bolster our long term competitive position. Thus, We expect the efficiency ratio to situate between 46% 48% and will reflect an increase in the weight of expenses for disruptive initiatives. At this point, we consider it's appropriate to provide you with some qualitative guidance and 2 key income streams, net fees and insurance underwriting results. Regarding the quarter, we expect fee growth to pick up towards high single digits in 2024 as activity accelerates and our efforts to further increase our transaction capabilities Additionally, insurance and the right of results will contract after reaching unusually high levels in 2023 As profitability in the life insurance business converges to very good sustainable levels, given the aforementioned dynamics, We expect our ROE to stand at around 17% for the full year.

Speaker 4

With these comments, I would like to start the Q and A session.

Operator

Please use the keypad on your computer screen. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure to unmute your phones to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity for questions. We also ask that you please only ask one question at a time. After each question has been addressed by our speakers, you will then be allowed to ask as many follow ups as needed.

Operator

Our first question today comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning, Gianfranco and Cesar, and good morning to all your team. Thanks for taking my call. My question will be on your expectations for OpEx growth this year. Just wondering If it should similar to the pace of growth observed in 2023 or a little bit lower, especially after removing the goodwill impairment in Colombia. How much do you expect OpEx to be related to the recurring business?

Speaker 5

And how much do you expect it to be related to the digital transformation? And also related to this question, When do you see Gap becoming profitable? And in which lines of the P and L should we start to see higher revenues from this business. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Good. Thank you, Ernesto. Good morning. This is Jan Franco. I'll ask Creshard to go on the Actually, both questions.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think they are very relevant questions. I am going to address 1 by 1. In terms of growth, I would like to emphasize that the impairment is not considered and operating expenses goes in another line. So we shouldn't take into consideration to explain the underlying dynamics of the business.

Speaker 4

In general terms, we expect to have similar dynamics in growth in expenses, I mentioned that the relative weight of the new initiative is growing significantly. So as you can see in the report Over the last year to 2023, the relative weight has increased and we expect this relative weight of the new initiative continue to increase significantly. They are not going to increase 66% as was in the year of 2023, but being more significantly, Changing from around 10% to around 15% of the expenses, the relative weight of these new expenses are going to be more relevant in the whole. This is one of the questions. In terms of Yape profitability, we expect to have breakeven during this year with a very significant dynamic in which we are going to start having more fee income streams, not only related to the transactional activity, but gradually a more relevant contribution from the financial services and Japan market.

Speaker 5

Excellent. Thank you very much, Cesar.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alvaro Artuso from UBS. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Giofranco and all of the team. Just a broader question Financial Officer with this guidance for 2024 of an ROE of 17%. I just wanted to confirm the indications of an ROE around 18% in 2025 that you guys provided during the Investor Day last year.

Speaker 6

So should we continue thinking about this 18% or after the operational performance for last year, There should be some change in that. And also, if you could include your thoughts on the sustainable ROE of the consolidated bank, I would also appreciate. Thank you very much, guys.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you, Lobo. And the answer is yes. I believe we mentioned it in last call or a couple of calls ago. We see 2024 as a transition year.

Speaker 3

That's the reason why the expected ROE in the guidance is around 17%. We expect that by 2025, the expected ROE should be 18% and then onwards. So we expect a sustainable ROE in the medium term to be 18%. Bear in mind that we've also stated that we expect that by 2025, the digital initiative Overall, as a portfolio should be cash flow neutral. So yes, the answer is yes.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you very much again.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sergey Duvan from H. L. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 1

Yes, good morning. Thanks for

Speaker 7

the call. Three questions, but

Speaker 1

I'll start 1 by 1. On net interest margin guidance. I guess you guys are guiding to improving net interest margin for 2024 even though Central Bank of Peru is obviously cutting rates. Could you go over one more time and kind of like more detail exactly why What's going to drive the NIM improvement and you can discuss both asset yields and funding cost in that context.

Speaker 3

So good morning, Sergey. Now, Cesar, please take your questions.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think the question is significantly derived from a balance sheet perspective, mix. We have positioned the book trying consciously and purposely to lend the duration of the asset side and shortening the duration of the liability side. This strategy through this 2023 year has positioned our balance sheet in order to benefit from the reduction of the interest rate in the following manner. In the asset side, we have increased the duration of the investment portfolio and we consider that we can change the mix of the loan growth tilted toward more retail loans.

Speaker 4

This is going to increase the yield of the part of the portfolio. And in some cases, we think that these yields are going to be not only more contributed because of the underlying yield, but they are also less volatile and less connected to the underlying reference rate. Of course, the wholesale loans are going to reprice according to the market in a timely fashion. In the liability side, We are going to have 2 factors that are going to increase our funding structure and one is going to be probably in the other direction. In the positive side, We have ended up the year with a better funding mix.

Speaker 4

In the last quarter, the proportion of low cost deposits increased 3 60 basis points, and we are considering a positive the positive dynamic to continue. So maintain a significant proportion of low cost funds. And reflecting the funding strategy that I described at the beginning, we have increased the percentage of term deposit, very short term deposits that are going to reprice accordingly with the decrease in the reference rates. These are going to be positive contribution to the margin. In the flip side, we are refinancing medium term bonds, sorry.

Speaker 4

And they are going to increase the marginal cost. All in all, the results is the guidance that we have just provided.

Speaker 1

Okay. That's helpful. Okay. So my second question is regarding cost of risk. So I understand that there's a bunch of provisions taken for El Nino, which is fine.

Speaker 1

But then when I back that out, actually even it just look like line by line, I see that DCP had A significant increase in cost of risk, almost doubled from last year. I'm talking about year over year here, not quarter to quarter. Mibanco was actually a very modest increase And then other was also very significant in percentage terms. So can you comment on what drove increase in DCP cost of risk specifically.

Speaker 8

Yes, Ricardo? Yes. 2023 has been a challenge a very challenging year for us as a whole. And besides the specific events in terms of what we had at the beginning of the year, As you know, the economy had shrunk during this year. And as such, I mean, we have Much more provision than expected and much more provision than in 2022.

Speaker 4

This explains basically

Speaker 8

The difference between both years and specifically related, as we have explained, in 2 portfolios, the SME book as well as the consumer Yes, and credit card portfolios as well.

Speaker 1

Yes. So, my question is really why because you have Mibanco, which is lending to these less affluent, less credit quality customers. Their provisions have only Increased 16% year on year, but your DCP provisions have doubled. So, are you feeling why is there a disconnect? Like, why are you not increasing positions in the most vulnerable segment of the population.

Speaker 1

And It seems like is that because you took the pay early in the BANCO? What's driving that disconnect in provision increase between the Bancro and BCP.

Speaker 8

You have to check the base here. In BCP, we had like an average cost of risk of around 1.5 and with that as you mentioned. In Evanco, in last year, we were around 6%. So it has grown marginally only 10%, But taking into consideration the base of both portfolios, that's the basic explanation, is the base of last year as compared to this year. In absolute terms, BCP is less than half of what Miluango has provisioned in this year.

Speaker 1

Okay. I'll check the math and come back to you on that. And then my last question was also address partially, but not really fully. So can you like when you're talking about your cost of cost to income ratio, efficiency ratio, right? So I think you mentioned that this year you're going to have 10% to 15% of expenses from disruptive initiatives, but then you also said that in By 2025, you would expect 10% of revenue coming from disruptive initiatives as well.

Speaker 1

But presumably in 2024, there will be also some portion that comes in revenue coming from that. So why are you still having efficiency ratio deteriorating as opposed to improving, Especially in the context of YAPI breaking even this year.

Speaker 3

Yes. Sergey, it's because As an example, Yape is going to become it's going to reach breakeven this year, but the cost to income of Yape is 100%. Let's assume it gets regulated that the cost of income of Yape is going to be 100% this year. And Yape in relative to the overall portfolio is going to be larger this year than the previous year. And that's happened is exactly the same To the other initiatives.

Speaker 3

So the other initiatives are disruptive initiatives. So the disruptive initiatives keep improving their cost to income, But they're not obviously, they're way higher than 45%. And as they become larger, They have a negative impact on the cost to income ratio.

Speaker 1

Okay. I see. I see. So basically, until Your disruptive initiative costincome ratio reach your average whatever 46% or 47%, they're going to still weigh down on the consolidated Exactly,

Speaker 3

exactly. So what we're as management team, what we're trying to do is with the, Let's say, traditional business, how to make it much more efficient so that as to as Craig offers an overall portfolio. We're balancing that cost to income ratio and not deteriorating the cost to income further.

Speaker 1

Okay, got it. Okay, that's all for me. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez from HSBC. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 7

Yes, hi. Good morning and congratulations on the results. I wanted to know if you can give us an idea about how much you have invested in Tempo in Chile and what your expectation is for future investments until it reaches profitability. And second, I don't know if you have mentioned this already, but what do you expect for dividend this year and what will your target CET1 be? I think you are at 13.2%, that's probably a bit higher than what you normally Operators.

Speaker 7

So that will be capital dividend and Tempo. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So good morning, Carlos. I'll take the second question And then, I really don't have the figures for 10% of my maybe Cesar can help me here. Regarding dividends, obviously, we cannot provide a figure now since the dividend has to be approved by the board in April, But what I would say is relevant is the logic behind paying dividends. Along the history of Credicorp, what we've done is that the subsidiaries paid Whatever is in excess of what they need for growth in terms of capitalization, and they pay dividends to Credicorp.

Speaker 3

And then obviously, Credicorp, If it doesn't have any transformational investment or something like that, it pays dividends. Last year, in 2023, we decided to withhold some dividends at the specifically at Mibanco and at DCP because of the social arrest and the projections of a strong El Nino we had at the time. That's the reason why, as you correctly mentioned, BCP is today the common equity Tier 1 BCP is much higher than what we normally have, which is 11.5% or 11%, I think it never 11%. 11%, Which is 11%, and as you mentioned, it's above 13%. So, yes, that's the answer regarding dividends.

Speaker 3

I don't know if that's enough for you.

Speaker 7

Well, I mean, so we should expect therefore more distribution from the subsidiaries to be holding and therefore perhaps More generous distribution this year than in previous years. That's the logic, right?

Speaker 3

That's the correct math. Sorry, I cannot be more specific, but the Board has to approve that.

Speaker 7

I understand, I understand. But obviously the Board is going

Speaker 9

to listen

Speaker 3

to what

Speaker 7

management is about.

Speaker 3

Totally, totally, totally valid logic. Yes. Regarding tempo, Cesar, can you go with that?

Speaker 4

We are providing a general figure, but I would say tempo can be around 100 €70,000,000 $180,000,000 a run of cash costs

Speaker 3

as of today. As of today, yes. And maybe what is more relevant, Carlos, is that how we manage the disruptive initiatives is that it's not that we are fully committed for the next, I don't know, 5 years. It's that each of the initiatives that we set indicators, what we call early or operating indicators depending on the stage. And if they achieve those indicators, Our capital or the capital calls are met.

Speaker 3

We are constantly supervising and Francesca's team is constantly looking at the performance of the initiative And that's the way we manage them. Okay. But it's fair to say that

Speaker 7

and you have highlighted Tempo, Indeed, that's something which is working. So one would expect that you will invest more in this particular venture because you are far from breakeven as well, right?

Speaker 3

Yes, yes. I'm fired not only in terms of money, but also in terms of time. Yes, that's correct. We cannot provide an exact figure as of today, but let me let us Revise it and we will be more specific maybe next call.

Speaker 7

Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Beatrice Abrau from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 10

Hi, everyone. Good morning and thank you for taking my question. I have a question on provisions. Do you expect any additional provisions related to El Nino at all in the coming quarters? And is there any risk of El Nino becoming more severe in the next couple of quarters maybe and you having to make additional provisions related to that.

Speaker 10

And then Going forward, what would be a more normalized cost of risk that we should consider and how should we think about the evolution of cost of risk throughout the year also? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Good morning, Beatriz. Rigelco, could you take that one, please?

Speaker 8

Yes. Beatriz, with the latest information we have, We don't expect at all any extra provisions for the El Nino effect. As mentioned, we even are considering, As of today, a reversal of provision we made in the last quarter of 2023. And in terms of the normalized guidance, It will depend how successful are we in terms of the projected growth in the retail portfolio, which as you can Understand, we would require a higher cost of risk than the wholesale portfolio. So basically, it will be around the current number, but it could be grow a little bit if we are in the growth in the retail market.

Speaker 3

Maybe just to compliment, Reinaldo, what we look at is a risk adjusted NIM. Business. Yes. That's what Reynaldo just mentioned is totally correct, but The retail portfolio has higher NIMs. Therefore, they can bear higher cost of risk.

Speaker 3

What matters is risk adjusted NIM.

Speaker 10

Just to make sure I understand, so in case Retail loan portfolio growth does turn out to be better this year than cost of risk should be Closer to the top end of the guidance, is that what you mean, Darvo?

Speaker 8

Yes. That will be the case, but With a higher NIM as well. So, overall, it will be better for the bank to be in that case.

Speaker 10

Perfect. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 11

Hello. Hi, Gianfranco, Feza, Milagros, everybody. I joined the call a little bit late, so I'm not sure if this was Lord or not, but I'm having a hard time to conciliate your 2017 ROE with your expenses growing somewhat in line with 2023. So if you can provide a little bit more color, I know you discussed that NIM should remain resilient, loan growth accelerate and cost of risk, But still, it seems too positive. And I would like to understand a little bit the bridge.

Speaker 11

Perhaps this is Yape getting to break Steven, but if you can help us understand the ROE path to the 17% that would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Good morning, Yuri. Cesar, please could you answer that?

Speaker 4

Yes, please. I would like to invite you to revise the basic of the year. We have the year 15.8%. If we consider that next year, we are considering an increase in average daily balances and an improved Inc. We are going to have a relevant increase in net interest margin and a controlled cost of risk that should increase in absolute returns over the last year.

Speaker 4

Adding to that, we are going to have an acceleration in fee income driven by the underlying businesses and also for the disruptive initiatives, mainly Yape. This is going to provide, I will say, pre expenses Significant improvement in income. And as we add up to these figures, cost that increases more or less in line with previous year with the change in the composition as Gianfranco has explained for the relative weight of the new initiative. We can have a higher profitability this year than the 2023 with the addition that we are not considering one time events like the provision of El Nino and the impairments that impacted 2023.

Speaker 3

Maybe Yuri, just to compliment Cesar, let me go back to my original comments regarding the overall situation of Peru. It's not only the macroeconomics, but also The social situation, the political situation and so on. So we see a much better we feel that we're in a much better position as a country, I mean, Today, that's what we were exactly 12 months ago.

Speaker 11

Oh, no progress, guys. And No, it makes sense and good luck with that. If I may, just a second one and kind of a follow-up on YAPI and congrats On the numbers for Yate, like impressive again. I just note an increase on the cost serve, like you provide this chart in the presentation. And our pack is almost crossing the cost to serve, but the cost to serve was up, I don't know, like some 20% quarter over quarter in the 4th Q.

Speaker 11

So So just asking if the cost of service seasonal, if you like when you say breakeven of Yape, is this cost of service getting a little bit more normalized and returning to, I don't know like the previous levels of 4 solids per active user or is this their pack crossing the cost to serve. So just checking the cost to serve on the appetite.

Speaker 3

Yes, you're right on your assessment. As I mentioned during the speech, The last quarter, we have some well, first of all, the seasonality because of the number of transactions, there's a spike in The last quarter, especially in December. Plus, there were some costs related to performance, but we expect that cost to serve to go back to Similar to previous levels, therefore, as Cesar said, we're going to reach breakeven this year. I would say we're going to reach breakeven, the first half of the year. So we're on the right track.

Speaker 11

Super clear, Gianfranco. Congrats on the results and the guidance. Thank you.

Operator

Press star and then one. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and 2. Our next question comes from Andre So to. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 9

Good morning to all and thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. The first one is a follow-up on your NIM. I would like to understand, if you can remind us what is the percentage of your loan book that is variable rate and how that compares with your liability side on your deposits, How much of that is variable rate?

Speaker 4

Okay. First, as we I have commented previously, we have no variable rates or no relevant variable rates proportion of portfolio. The explanation The main performance is the composition of the balance sheet that is going to change the position that we have engineer during 2023 to shorten the duration of the liability side that is going to benefit the cost funds through 2024 as the reference rate decreases.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Cesar. So it's a matter of also duration, I imagine, right? Yes. You don't have variable rate, it's It's a matter of how long are you are on your assets versus your liability. Can you give

Speaker 3

us a

Speaker 9

sense of what is the gap at this point?

Speaker 4

Yes, exactly. It's It's a matter of durations and I will say pass through sensibility of different kind of instruments.

Speaker 9

Right. And can you give us some numbers in terms of what is the duration on your assets versus your liabilities?

Speaker 4

At this point, the duration of the assets is a little bit more than 2 years and the liability is slightly shorter.

Speaker 9

Perfect. Thank you so much. My second question is regarding the loan growth guidance. The tone that you are setting for the country sounds quite optimistic. However, when I see the multiplier that you are assuming for loan growth is just a multiplier of 1 to nominal GDP.

Speaker 9

What are the factors preventing you to have a mortgage

Speaker 8

in terms of loan growth?

Speaker 4

I think it's a Very valuable question because if you think an inflation of 2.5%, 3% and GDP growth of 2.5%, you can think in a nominal GDP of around 5.5% or something about that. And the usual multiplier has been around 1.5%. But this 1.5% is not a clock that is perfect every year. We have now and another factor that is relevant is that when we provide guidance, we are talking about average daily balances. And We have a decrease in the balances through the year during 2023.

Speaker 4

So we have, at the beginning of the year, have lower amounts sorry, higher amounts at the end of the year, and we need to rebuild the portfolio starting in a lower base. And another factor that was mentioned probably very briefly during my presentation is that we are still going to have some impact of Realtiva. We are not longer providing the guidance based on the structural portfolio, but in total portfolio, but we are going to still have and an impact that is slightly less than 2% due to the payment of the remaining reactiva loans that we already have on books.

Speaker 9

Perfect. That's great to hear. Thank you so much.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, it appears there are no further questions at this time. Now I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Gianfranco Ferrari, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Thanks to everyone for joining us today and for your questions. The journey we've undertaken over the past year has been both challenging and transformative. Our resilient full year results underscore the strength of our organization and our ability to adapt revolving landscape. This outcome is grounded in a solid foundation, including a diverse portfolio, integrated digital capabilities and a prudent approach to risk management. Our success span various lines of businesses, including Universal Banking and Insurance as well as Asset and Wealth Management, where our turnaround plan is delivering expected results.

Speaker 3

While acknowledging the process, we are aware of the work needed to strengthen and revitalize our microfinance business for sustainable growth. Looking forward to 2024, we anticipate an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. We're anticipating a linear phenomenon, A more favorable GDP outlook, a reduced local reference rate and controlled inflation, we are more optimistic than 3 months ago about the opportunities that lie ahead. Cesar shared with you our detailed 2024 guidance, which reflects a year in transition. For the medium term, we expect to maintain a resilient NIM as the sensitivity of our margins to decreasing interest rates has diminished year over year and we continue to shift our loan portfolio towards retail.

Speaker 3

Our cost of risk should maintain a downward trend as We finalized adjusting the current rate cycle. We also see some room for efficiency optimization as our disruptive initiatives Sure. Taken together, we should be back on track to deliver our sustainable ROE of around 18%. As we move forward, our commitment to talent, innovation, sustainability and shareholder value creation remains unwavering. The investments we're making today are paving the way for a more resilient and sustainable future for Credicorp.

Speaker 3

Before closing, I want to comment on some management changes announced at the end of the year. We bid farewell to Reynaldo Llosa, who will retire from his roles as the corporate and DCP CRO after an impeccable 30 year career. I extend my personal gratitude to Reynaldo for leaving us in a stronger position. Cesar Rios We'll be transitioning into the CRO role for Credicorp and BCP. With more than 30 years of diverse organizational experience and exceptional capabilities.

Speaker 3

I am confident that he will guide us into a new era of risk management. This would empower us to adaptive leverage developing technologies to expand our reach into new segments and markets. Finally, I look forward to collaborating closely with Alejandro Perez Reyes, who steps into the role of Chief Financial Officer at both Credicorp and BCP, leveraging his 25 years of diverse experience within the company. Thank you to all Thank you, ladies

Speaker 8

and gentlemen.

Speaker 3

This concludes today's presentation.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Sonim Technologies Q4 2023
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