Lumentum Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 8, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lumentum Holdings Second Quarter Fiscal Year 20 24 Earnings Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Please also note that today's event is being recorded for replay purposes. There will be a Q and A on today's call. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Kathy Ta, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Ms. Ta, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

This is Cathy Ta, Lumentum's Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Alan Lowe, President and Chief Executive Officer Wajid Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Chris Coldren, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer. Today's call will include forward looking statements, including statements regarding our expectations and beliefs regarding recent acquisitions, including Cloudlight and NeoPhotonics, financial and operating results, macroeconomic trends, trends and expectations for our products and technologies, our end markets, market opportunities and customers and our expected financial performance, including our guidance as well as statements regarding our future revenues, financial model and margin targets. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations, particularly the risk factors described in our SEC filings. We encourage you to review our most recent filings with the SEC, particularly the risk factors described in the 10 ks for the fiscal year ended July 1, 2023, and our 10 Q that will be filed soon.

Speaker 1

The forward looking statements provided during this call are based on Lumentum's reasonable beliefs and expectations as of today. Lumentum undertakes no obligation to update these statements, except as required by applicable law. Please also note that unless otherwise stated, all financial results and projections discussed in this call are non GAAP. Non GAAP financials are not to be considered as a substitute for or superior to financials prepared in accordance with GAAP. Lumentum's press release with the fiscal 2nd quarter results and accompanying supplemental slides are available on our website at www.lumentum.

Speaker 1

Com under the Investors section. With that, I'll turn the call over to Alan.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. Momentum stands at the leading edge of photonics innovation, partnering with customers to enable the future of data centers and the networks that connect them. We equip our customers with the industry's most comprehensive photonics portfolio, enabling them to unlock unparalleled performance and efficiency. From pluggable high speed transceivers to enabling customers AI optimized architectures with industry leading transmitters and photonics, We are at the forefront of data centers needs. Together with our cloud customers, we are shaping the future of data transmission through pioneering technologies such as chip scale photonics and advanced data transmission protocols as well as highly efficient and automated Manufacturing at scale.

Speaker 2

It has been just 3 months since we acquired Cloudlight and we are thrilled with the team that has joined us and the many opportunities that lie ahead. In this brief period, we have had meaningful traction with customers on new data center opportunities, which we expect will drive significant additional growth as we complete the development of the new products and receive customer qualifications. The market opportunity is accelerating and we expect broader customer adoption of 800 gs technology as these qualifications finalize. Additionally, the initial ramp up of 1.6 terabit products by early technology adopters is creating a lot of pull from customers and we expect to have a first to market advantage given our vertical integration and test results from our labs. Cloud like transceiver shipments were very strong in the December quarter contributing $59,500,000 during the approximately 8 weeks after the acquisition.

Speaker 2

We expect our shipments will be even stronger in the March quarter. Given a mid calendar year transition planned by our largest data center customer, we expect revenue from data center transceivers to temporarily dip in the June September quarters and then grow significantly through the end of the year and into calendar year 2025 as this transition completes and other new customer programs start to ramp. Given the surging data demands of AI data centers and our strong traction on new transceiver opportunities, We are strategically expanding our leading edge transceiver manufacturing capacity. As a key part of this expansion, We are investing in state of the art production lines at our manufacturing facility in Thailand. Our Tie factory has proven photonics manufacturing capabilities and has received numerous customer accolades, Given this confidence in our ability to ramp rapidly, this capacity will come online this summer and we expect to lead the 1st wave of 1.6 terabit transceivers for multiple customers at this site.

Speaker 2

In addition to this new capacity expansion in Thailand, we will be leveraging Lumentum's components to new cloud light transceiver designs. We believe the combination of our established history of customer partnership, Proven manufacturing leadership and unrivaled breadth of differentiated photonic component capabilities puts us at an excellent position to accelerate top line revenue growth and margins in this rapidly growing cloud transceiver market. While cloud data centers are forecasting double digit CapEx growth in calendar 2024, we are navigating challenging market conditions in other parts of our business. Based on sluggish carrier CapEx spending and our latest customer discussions, we now expect customer inventory digestion to extend through the balance of fiscal 2024. Nevertheless, we are highly confident in our market position and the ultimate recovery and growth of this business.

Speaker 2

As fiber transmission reaches its physical capacity, Network providers increasingly recognize the value of technologies like ours that enable continued network scaling, Reinforcing our long term confidence in this business. Moving to our Industrial Tech segment. We are very excited about our traction on new products serving new applications, particularly for our ultrafast lasers. These are ramping up and are adding to our customer and market diversification in our industrial tech segment. That said, we do expect a period of lower demand over the coming quarters driven by typical seasonality in our consumer business and by macro softness in the industrial market along with elevated customer inventory levels at one of our large laser customers.

Speaker 2

We expect the industrial laser inventory to be corrected Over the next 6 months around the same timeframe as the seasonal uptick in our consumer business. This combined with our wins at new customers in new markets should lead to an industrial tech segment recovery during the second half of the calendar year. Moving on to fiscal 2nd quarter results. 2nd quarter revenue and EPS results were above the midpoint of our guidance ranges with revenue of $366,800,000 and EPS of $0.32 I'm very excited about the contribution that our Cloudlight acquisition had on the quarter and will have in the future given the technology and capability of the combined companies to address the rapidly growing AI and ML photonics market. We have continued to drive acquisition synergies to drive down our fixed costs and Wajid will provide more color on this shortly.

Speaker 2

The combination of these lower fixed costs and the rebound in revenue will result in an accelerated expansion In our margins during fiscal 2025. Cloud and networking revenue was up 25% sequentially driven by strong cloud data center demand and the contribution from the CloudLife acquisition, but down 25% year on year given broad based softness across most of our telecom networking product lines due to the continued inventory correction at our network equipment customers. The future is bright for our cloud technology roadmap. In the second half of calendar twenty twenty four, we expect to qualify the industry's first Power efficient 800 gs transceivers that employ 4x200 gig lanes of traffic using silicon photonics technologies. As I mentioned earlier, we expect to ramp capacity this summer at our campus in Thailand and expect to lead the first wave of 1.6 terabit transceivers for multiple customers in this facility.

Speaker 2

These ultra high speed transceivers provide additional bandwidth needed for AI workloads while also alleviating data bottlenecks with lower power consumption and latency as customers move to 200 gig per lane technology. We expect that 200 gig per lane optics using not only silicon photonics technology, But also our vertically integrated EMO lasers will be the workhorse of the next generation of hyperscale data centers Once these new products are qualified at leading cloud and cloud infrastructure customers, we have been receiving positive customer feedback about our 100 gig VCSEL performance for short distance data center applications and expect to start ramping production In the second half of calendar twenty twenty four, we will qualify our VCSELs in Cloudlight's active optical cables and transceiver platforms in the coming quarters. We are also working closely with cloud infrastructure providers on novel components and modules that leverage our unique technology capabilities to enable new future AI hardware architectures for higher bandwidth, lower power density and low latency optical interconnects essential for training and inference applications. With the rapid build out of AI and ML data centers, connecting those data centers with high speed, Power and cost efficient interconnects is becoming even more important.

Speaker 2

To that end, we continue to have success In our 400 gig ZR module business where in Q2 we grew over 30% sequentially. Additionally, We are receiving positive customer feedback on our 800 gig ZR modules and we are on track to be 1st to market with customer samples this year. These modules will enable even higher speed extended reach data center interconnects to help keep pace with rapidly expanding data center infrastructure. Our coherent transmission products outside of the data center are receiving positive customer feedback and traction on our next generation 130200 Gigabaud data rate technologies enable next generation coherent applications at 800 gs, 1.2t and 1.6t. These high speed products are available in both discrete and integrated form factors to enable enhanced performance in next generation metro and long haul applications.

Speaker 2

As we move through calendar 2024, We believe we are at the forefront of 200 gigabaud optical technology with our first to market and first to volume products. Turning to Industrial Tech. Fiscal Q2 was down 9% sequentially as expected, driven by seasonality in our 3 d sensing business and inventory consumption at 1 of our large industrial lasers customers. Industrial Tech was down 35% year over year primarily due to increased competition For market share on a certain 3 d sensing socket that we have discussed previously and overall macroeconomic softness. We expect revenue of 3 d sensing for consumer applications to contribute approximately 5% or less of company revenue in Q3 and Q4 of fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

As the shift to Industry 4.05.0 drives demand for greater Automation and precision manufacturing, our laser products are well positioned to address evolving industrial needs. With precise control and pulse parameters, beam quality and stability, we are seeing growing opportunities for Ultrafast and solid state lasers across key micro machining applications in semiconductor, EV batteries, displays, PCBs and solar cell manufacturing. Growth in new micromachining applications will help to partially offset the near term headwinds I mentioned earlier. To summarize, high speed data center demand is skyrocketing And we are accelerating product development and production to capture this growth. Armed with long standing customer partnerships, Industry leading manufacturing and an unmatched portfolio of advanced photonic components, we are positioned to capture market share in the surging cloud transceiver market driving significant top line and margin growth for the momentum.

Speaker 2

Before turning it over to Wajid, I would like to thank our employees and our customers around the world for their focus and dedication as they continue to collaborate and partner with Lumentum. With that, Wajid?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Alan. As Alan mentioned, we are confident about our market position and growth opportunities across our served markets. We are focused on lowering our fixed cost base so that as revenue recovers, operating margin dollars will expand faster than revenue. To this end, we've made significant progress on manufacturing synergies by hitting key milestones on closing 2 NeoPhotonics factories in China this past December. The benefit will accrue to our financial position as we ramp production of most of those products at our Thailand facility.

Speaker 3

Additionally, our Japan wafer fab consolidation plans are progressing well, And we expect to execute this plan by the first half of fiscal twenty twenty five, allowing us to attain significant additional synergies in both manufacturing and operating expenses beginning in the fiscal Q3 of 2025. As well, We continue to see incremental synergy and efficiency opportunities within our operating expenses. Consequently, we are increasing our synergy attainment expectations to $100,000,000 up from the prior target of $80,000,000 To date, we have achieved approximately $60,000,000 in annual run rate savings and expect to achieve the remaining $40,000,000 as we execute against our plan. We will provide you with further updates as we achieve critical milestones. As I have mentioned previously, We had prebuilt inventory of NeoPhotonics products to enable these factory transitions.

Speaker 3

In Q2, We reduced Lumentum's overall inventory levels by approximately $20,000,000 sequentially, excluding the increase in inventory related to Cloudlight. In addition, despite incorporating the operational of our recent acquisition of Cloudlight in Q2, our tight financial discipline drove company wide operating expenses down by $4,000,000 on a year over year basis. We're confident that our combined efforts on manufacturing efficiency, Inventory management and cost control will pave the way for continued improvements in gross and operating margins As telecom revenue recovers and our cloud revenue continues to grow. Net revenue for the 2nd quarter was 366 $800,000 which was up 15.5 percent sequentially and down 27.5% year on year. As Alan mentioned, during the quarter, we recognized $59,500,000 in revenue from a partial quarter of Cloudlight.

Speaker 3

The majority of this revenue came from 800 gs transceiver shipments. GAAP gross margin for the 2nd quarter was 17 point 4% GAAP operating loss was 28.7 percent and GAAP diluted net loss per share was 1.47 with a large portion of the GAAP net loss due to acquisition related charges and amortization. 2nd quarter non GAAP gross margin was 32.6%, which was down sequentially and down year on year, driven by product mix and factory underutilization. 2nd quarter non GAAP operating margin was 3 point 5%, which was up sequentially and down year on year. 2nd quarter non GAAP operating income was $13,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA was $39,000,000 2nd quarter non GAAP operating expenses totaled $106,700,000 or 29.1 percent of revenue, up $6,600,000 from Q1, due in part to the acquisition of Cloudlight and down $3,600,000 from the year ago quarter due to tight expense controls and continued synergy attainment.

Speaker 3

Q2 non GAAP SG and A expense was $38,400,000 Non GAAP R and D expense was $68,300,000 Interest and other income was $12,300,000 on a non GAAP basis due to interest earned on our cash and investments. 2nd quarter non GAAP net income was $21,700,000 And non GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.32 Our fully diluted share count for the 2nd quarter was 67 point 4,000,000 shares on a non GAAP basis. Our cash position decreased by $720,000,000 during the quarter to $1,220,000,000 This was primarily due to the $705,000,000 in cash used for the purchase of Cloudlight. In addition, we incurred approximately $8,000,000 of normal course expenses associated with the transaction. Turning to segment details.

Speaker 3

2nd quarter cloud and networking segment revenue at 286 $700,000 increased 24.8 percent sequentially and was down 25.1% year on year. Cloud and Networking segment non GAAP reporting profit at 10.1% decreased sequentially and year on year. Our 2nd quarter Industrial Tech segment revenue at $80,100,000 was down 8.9% sequentially and down 34.9% year on year. 2nd quarter Industrial Tech non GAAP reporting profit up 15.9% was down sequentially and year on year. Before I move to our guidance, I would like to add some context to an impact to our revenue related to export regulations.

Speaker 3

Late last year, we were notified by certain critical IC suppliers that service the industry broadly that their products do not comply with the latest export regulations. Consequently, in December, we stopped the majority of our product shipments to the largest networking equipment manufacturer in China. Our assumption is that these export regulations will continue indefinitely and result in an approximate $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 reduction in calendar year 'twenty four revenue from our prior expectations. Longer term, we believe geopolitical factors could pose a benefit to our revenue opportunity given our larger product footprint within other customers who are expected to be end market share gainers over time. Now let me move to our guidance for the Q3 of fiscal 2024, which is on a non GAAP basis and is based on our assumptions as of today.

Speaker 3

We expect net revenue for the Q3 of fiscal 2024 to be in the range of $350,000,000 to $380,000,000 This Q3 revenue forecast includes the following assumptions: Cloud and networking to be up driven by strong cloud demand and a full quarter of Cloudlight despite more than a $10,000,000 impact from the export regulations just mentioned and Industrial Tech to be down nearly $40,000,000 sequentially at the midpoint due to 3 d sensing seasonality and share dynamics as well as industrial laser customer inventory digestion that Alan mentioned earlier. Based on this, we project 3rd quarter non GAAP operating margin to be in the range of 2% to 5% and diluted net income per share to be in the range of $0.20 to $0.35 Our non GAAP EPS guidance for the 3rd quarter is based on a non GAAP annual effective tax rate of 14.5%. These projections also assume an approximate share count of 67,800,000 shares. With that, I'll turn the call back to Kathy to start the Q and A session. Kathy?

Speaker 1

Thank you, Wajid. Before we start the Q and A session, I would like to ask everyone to keep to one question and one follow-up. This should help us get to as many participants as

Operator

We will now start today's Q and A portion of the call. Our first question today comes from Simon Leopold from Raymond James. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much for taking the question. I will try to keep to that one. So I just wonder if you could maybe talk a little bit about your customer mix, customer concentration in this quarter. I'm wondering if you did have a new 10% customer and how you see that particular concentration changing or evolving, both sequentially and then longer term? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Simon. Yes, we did have a new 10% customer primarily due to the Cloudlight addition to revenue to that customer. And I'd say that as we talked about on the script, We expect that diversification around our transceiver business will grow rapidly towards the end of this calendar year and into 2025 as new 800 gig and 1.6 T products are qualified with other hyperscalers as well as AI infrastructure companies. So We're very excited about that and the diversification of the customers around our transceiver business.

Speaker 2

I would say that one of the things we did talk about was the less dependency on our consumer business and that's why we gave Pacific's around 5% or less of our revenue in the next two quarters. And I think that's a healthy place to be with our consumer business. Does that answer your question, Simon?

Speaker 4

Thanks. And then it does and You sort of teed up my follow-up nicely in that. In the deck, the footnote mentions that industrial tech is expected to decline approximately $40,000,000 sequentially. And I'm still sort of adjusting to this new segmentation. And I'm just wondering whether that implies 3 d is essentially dropping to 0.

Speaker 4

I know you said less than 5%, 0 is also less than 5% or whether there's a significant portion of that 40,000,000 Coming out of this inventory adjustment product cycle angle on your industrial lasers, just looking for a little bit more help how to split that $40,000,000 Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, I would say that we're pretty confident in that 5 ish percent for consumer in Q3. So the balance would come from We mentioned on the call around the inventory reduction efforts by one of our largest laser customers. So that's how you could kind of split up that $40,000,000 Thank you. Thanks, Simon.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Simon.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Henderson from Needham. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks. I wanted to dig into the Cloudlight business a little bit and understand Some of the dynamics there, but I also wanted to understand whether Cloudlights Technology in selling transceivers has changed the dynamics around your chip sales to other transceiver companies at all. First question is the 800 gig products you're talking about ramping in VCSELs. Is there a 1.6 terabit product coming down the pike For that, because we've just heard from Fabrinet that they're expecting some impact on their business Because of a product transition, I would assume that that is in the AOC segment because they don't really do much In the InfiniBand segment and not aware of anybody having a 200 gig VCSEL product to ramp.

Speaker 5

So can you talk about whether that technology is out there and whether that's something that's in your cards on the AOC side?

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me address your first question first, which is around the dynamics of our chip sales. And I would say, Certainly, our chip customers had some concern around us being a competitor, but we assured them that We are their partners and we really treat those two businesses very separately with a wall between our chip development team and our transceiver team. So there's no cross contamination or concerns. And I think we've alleviated a lot of those concerns to the point where I am sold out on datacom chips today and through next quarter and we're adding capacity to meet the demands of our EML business and bringing up our CW laser business in a rapid way.

Speaker 2

On the VCSELs, we talked about 100 gig VCSELs being released in The second half of this year, very positive results, just going through final qualifications. And that would be more of an 800 gig AOC or 800 gig, SR multimode transceiver. As far as 200 gig pixels, that's a little bit out for us and I think for the industry. So a 1.6 T would be more of a silicon photonics or EML based transceiver. But I'll let Chris talk a little bit more about his thoughts on 200 gig pixels or 1.6 t.

Speaker 2

Chris?

Speaker 6

Yes. I mean, as you alluded to, Alan, we are focused initial products of 1.6 terabit will be silicon photonic based. The industry is, however, developing 200 gig VCSELs on our road map, developing other third party suppliers developing 200 gig So those will feather in over time as well. And the Cloudlight transceiver platform has multimode transceiver, single mode transceivers, so we're well positioned to participate in both opportunities.

Speaker 5

So just that I understand, then if there is a 1.6 terabit product coming in the June quarter, it would have to be 16 lanes of 100? Because I mean, there's clearly an implication that there's something of that sort coming down the pike in the June quarter And by other people's commentary, is that not true?

Speaker 6

I can comment on what Our plans are, which involve silicon photonic based approaches, I think we also have alluded to on the call that 200 gig per lane technology is also on the horizon, let's say, and will be coming out over the next year. So I think you can put those facts together.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks. Yes. But just to be clear, we have 1.6 terabit Photonics in our labs today and we have 200 gig EMLs that we have qualified internally that are ready to go and waiting for both internal qualification at the transceiver level as well as our customers' transceivers qualification using 200 gig EMLs that I think will come out later this year.

Speaker 5

Just for clarification, that would then be an InfiniBand Related product, not AOCs, right?

Speaker 2

Well, it would be either Ethernet or InfiniBand. However, customers use our datacom chips, is really up to them. And we're kind of we don't really care whether it's InfiniBand or otherwise. So, Chris, do you have any other comments on InfiniBand? Yes.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks. Nothing

Speaker 6

that certainly we have both capabilities and both in development.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Samik Chhatiby from JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Maybe just not to sort of keep going on Datacom, but to just make sure I'm not You talked about the product transition that your primary customer there for Cloudlight is undergoing. Maybe you can flesh that out a bit in your own words, what's the transition? And more curious to hear what's your visibility in terms of market share With the customer following that transition, any thoughts or any color on whether you expect any changes in relation to market share? And then I have a quick follow-up.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes, I'll comment on product transition. Certainly, I have to be a little careful customer sensitivity, but you can imagine that as 800 gig is launched, There are subsequent generations of 800 gig, whether that be different form factor or transitioning from 100 gig to 200 gig per lane. So there are a range of changes as you get further into technology maturity to reduce power consumption and power density challenges in your systems. I think with regard to market share, we're very excited and believe that we have lots of opportunity to gain share. And that's why, As we talked about in our prepared remarks that we're expanding capacity very significantly so that we can come out and really accelerate growth later this calendar year and into calendar 2025.

Speaker 7

Thanks for that. And maybe just for my follow-up on the telecom segment, your primary Your company is calling out a recovery in demand in China, which I'm assuming you're not able to capitalize on because of the trade regulations. But Just curious if that this is a situation where you would sort of just go rework the product and get through some of the supply chain reorganization to still try to address that market with a different customer? Or is this sort of an area where you really don't have an option to go around and capitalize on that demand recovery in the China market? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Samik, there are deployments about to happen in China that we're part of through Non Huawei customers and we're in a meaningful way, a very large part of the share of non Huawei in China network equipment manufacturers, and in fact, that's one of the areas of strong strength. We stopped shipping due to the need to follow regulations, obviously. And I think that will trickle down eventually to the point where share will shift from network equipment manufacturers that we have a higher share of wallet on that over the long term, we believe will be a tailwind for us.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

Thanks Samik.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Christopher Rolland from SIG. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey guys, thanks for the question. Mine is about Cloudlight. So first of all, you talked about It may be the end of a program and a dip in June September. If you could kind of describe why that program just ends and why there is something fluid into the next segment of AI or what have you. And then you talked about a broadening Into new customers, how many are you thinking?

Speaker 8

And how large do you think they may be versus your primary customer? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes, Chris. I mean, We do, as you're alluding to, have a degree of customer concentration in the Cloudlight business. The customer that's driven a lot of 800 gig growth over the past several quarters, there's a time to ramp down of The current generation of product and takes time to ramp up the next generation of products. So while there are other customers and other customers are growing, they're not sufficient to offset that product transition, if you will. And as Alan alluded to, We are, through the capacity expansions as well as new product activities, Expanding the number of sockets that we have with multiple customers so that such product transitions, which do occur time to time, will be more smoothed out, as the revenue base grows and diversifies.

Speaker 6

In terms of the magnitude of other customer opportunities, certainly, as we talked about when we Announced the acquisition of Cloudyte. I mean, this is a very large market. And so the opportunity to add multiples of current revenue in the coming years is certainly well ahead of us and we're very well positioned with both the cloud like capabilities, then you add what Lumentum brings to the table, customers to date are very encouraged by the possibilities and are working closely with us to bring that to a reality over the coming year. We have to You can't develop a product, qualify it and ramp it in a few quarters. That does take a little bit of time.

Speaker 6

And so that's why we're talking about having significant capacity additions and revenue growth later this calendar year.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Chris, maybe I can

Speaker 8

add to

Speaker 2

that as well. Yes. Yes. Just to add to that, I think Given that we're a U. S.

Speaker 2

Headquartered company and now investing heavily outside of China is a very attractive alternative U. S. Partner to all of the cloud customers as well as the cloud infrastructure companies. And so that's what's really got our traction with, I'd say, every one of the customers. And that's why we're investing strongly in Thailand and we'll continue to invest, to meet the needs of the demands that our customers are asking for.

Speaker 2

Because when they say go, they want to make sure we have the capacity in place. And so that's what gives us confidence and why we're investing so strongly.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Alan. Maybe as a follow-up, just to understand some of these moving product dynamics. When will 100 gig VCSELs be meaningful for you in terms of revenue? And then it sounds like You don't have a roadmap for 200 gig pixels. You'll have a hard cut to SIFO or EMLs for 200 gig, and that will be going into Cloudlight products as well.

Speaker 8

Did I get that transition correct?

Speaker 2

Sort of. I would say, today our 100 gig VCSELs have a lot of positive feedback. We'll start revenue In the second half of the calendar year, it will be meaningful in calendar 2025 both from an AOC standpoint as well as multimode SR transceiver. We do have 200 gig on our roadmap. We are doing development work and The progress that we made over the last year on 100 gig gives us a lot of confidence that we will have a 200 gig at the right time.

Speaker 2

And that's probably end of 2025 and into 2026. So 100 gig VCSELs have a very nice runway Through 25 and I think our confidence in our 200 gig roadmap is very strong. So we will have both Silicon Photonics, that will hit first. It will hit silicon Photonics first, EMLs as well around the same time at the 200 gig per line and then VCSELs at 200 gig We'll come after that. Thanks, Alan.

Speaker 2

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks. It's been touched on a couple of questions, but just wanted to kind of narrow down into kind of the process or timeline of kind of bringing your lasers into the Cloudlight portfolio, just kind of what the timing of that vertical integration would be? And then maybe just as a second question, more on the 3 d sensing side of the portfolio, there are new kind of devices out from your major customer. Just anything in terms of kind of contextualizing how big that opportunity either is or could contribute to the year?

Speaker 9

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. So the timing of our lasers into CloudDyce portfolio In the lab, certainly, they're already there in the short period that we've been one company, both on 100 gig VCSELs as well as EMLs. So then it's just a matter of customers don't want to do changes in existing product. And so It will come up as we get new product qualifications and new customers and new opportunities. And So I would say that is all dependent upon how fast those qualifications happen.

Speaker 2

But I would say that that would be really a second half of calendar 'twenty four and 25 in a more meaningful way. 3 d sensing new devices, they're very secretive. We believe we Are in some of their new devices, but quite frankly the volumes of those devices are very small relative to handsets. So I don't think you should model any meaningful contribution on those new devices in the short term.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you. Thanks, Meta.

Operator

Our next question today is from Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes, good morning. I have a question for Alan and one for Wajid. Rajid, within telecom, 130 and 200 Gigawatt and Coherent Optics, with eventually your own Coherent DSPs, Appear to be growth drivers for you, but where do you think your customers are on digesting inventory? I know you indicated it may not recover until September quarter, but have you seen book to bill trough in that area of the business? Any color on that would be helpful as we think about the recovery in telecom.

Speaker 2

Yes. So on the high gigabaud products, Those are constrained by our ability to meet customer demand today. And you're right, I think the combination of 130 gigabaud, 200 gigabaud And our own DSP is a real winning solution to meet the needs of next generation ZR products As well as the long haul and metro products, so today our 200 gigabaud and 130 gigabaud are going into more metro And long haul applications just as if just as prior products and prior generations as soon they cost reduce over time and get into a smaller form factor into ZR products. So that is often to the races and It feels like the old times, the number of e mails I get from executives asking us to ramp up faster and work with our suppliers to get product to them when they need it. So that's a very, very strong positive.

Speaker 2

As far as digestion is concerned, I'd say that We have a lot of single source or primary source products that during the pandemic, We're in short supply where customers ordered in anticipation. For example, our tunable laser that came from NeoPhotonics is the workhorse of the industry and there's inventory at many of our customers of those products as The anticipation of ZR demand is very, very strong and it became less so Over the horizon, so inventory needs to be digested of tunable lasers and when that goes away and we believe that will take You know, in a quarter and a half or so, that those products will ramp back up. So I think, Putting aside the short term inventory glut, we're very well positioned on existing products, on new products And the new product demand is very strong. So I think from that perspective, we're very confident in our position and the market share today and going forward.

Speaker 10

Thank you for that, Alan. Maybe a follow-up, you indicated how you are expanding production capacity in Thailand for high speed laser components. At the same time, there seems to be quite a strong willingness by your customers to accept that. So Are you seeing a willingness across the supply chain for your customers to co invest in your capacity as they ready Some of these very high capable products really for AI clusters and next generation AI networks as they're ready for that demand? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I would say on Existing capacity and short term growth of capacity, that's on our dime and our customers are encouraging us and will reward us over time with orders. They're investing their R and D and engineering resources to qualify our products In the short term, I would say that, we are getting co investment on development projects to develop unique alternatives to transceivers. So for the long term, I think we have share of mind with some of the AI infrastructure companies around what does the next generation of datacom or optical interconnect for GPUs, etcetera, what does it look like? And they're willing to help us make those investments that will turn into revenue a little bit further out. But they're clearly Partnering with us because they see the breadth of technology and capabilities that we have.

Speaker 2

So I'd say that's kind of the answer proved from the short term as well as longer Does that answer your question, Carl?

Speaker 10

Yes, it does. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Karl.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dave King from B. Riley. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Good morning. Just more question on the Datacom segment. So with that part or dip in June September, how should we think about Datacom revenue for those 2 respective quarters?

Speaker 2

Yes, Dave. I think Go ahead. Okay. Yes, let me take that. I'd say it we're still working on what that dip looks like.

Speaker 2

And clearly, our customer is Working to help us smooth that dip. And so I would think from a modeling standpoint, It could be down 30% through that transition period. But again, that's a matter of still working through. And then can we pull in the new products into the September quarter that would make that June quarter, the low and I think that's probably the case as we have made tremendous progress on the new products And the demand for those new products are strong. So I'd say you can model kind of a dip in the June quarter with a slight pickup in the September quarter, but That's a little bit dynamic.

Speaker 11

Got it. And then my second question is on the telecom. Just wondering, you talked about tunable lasers. Just wondering how big that business is? And also, can you any update on the ROADM Segment.

Speaker 6

Yes, Dave. We don't break those products out specifically, but I think maybe a key point as Alan highlighted on the call or in the previous question is both of those products So our ones where there are more inventory out there given the position we have and the criticality we Our to our customers and the supply challenges around semiconductors or ICs a year ago or so, That's an area where inventory was built quite heavily. So for example, as our ZR modules ourselves are ramping up, Tunable lasers aren't yet. There will be a time lag here of a quarter or 2 before they start to recovered given the amount of inventory that's out there. So unfortunately, the situation is that Some of the major product lines that we have that have driven a lot of our historical revenue are the ones where there are high levels of inventory that are remaining to burn off in the coming couple of quarters.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Dave.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Reuben Roy from Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thank you. I hope my first question is quick because you guys have talked about this quite a bit. But Chris, I think this is for you. In answer to previous questions just around this, a little bit of a pause in the June September quarters on the Transceiver Technology, I just wanted to make sure I understood. That's a design change, 100% related to kind of your product and not because of other network elements.

Speaker 12

Is that the right way to think about it?

Speaker 6

I would say, well, maybe a slightly different, which is to say that the customer wants to purchase different products that then we have to make a new product. And so there is a period of ramping down the old before we ramp up the new And that's what presents the dip. Okay. The customer is trying to improve system or network performance, if you will, through a different sort of product design, if you will.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you for that. And then on the industrial side, you have outside of 3 d sensing, you've got the Inventory consumption at a large customer and obviously macro weakness ongoing. I'm wondering if you could kind of sort out the macro side of it, are you how's design activity been, Alan? I know you've gotten some new products out there with some of the fast industrial lasers.

Speaker 12

Are you seeing any sort of pick up in design activity or discussions around either additive manufacturing or otherwise. I'm just curious How you're thinking about that over the next 12 to 18 months?

Speaker 2

Yes, good question. I'd say as we said in the Script, a lot of new applications. I'd say the one that we are ramping today is primarily around solar processing and manufacturing and our laser gives them a differentiated efficiency of the solar cell. So it's As you can imagine, 1% efficiency or even a fraction of a percent efficiency for solar cells is a big deal. And so, For whatever reason, our unique capability in our ultrafast laser has a lot of traction in that space.

Speaker 2

And similarly, We are seeing a lot of design activity around other applications and we talked about those on the call around even batteries and PCBs and displays that are coming to fruition and will turn into business really in the second half of calendar 2024 and into 2025. So yes, a lot of activity and a lot of success with respect to Our femtosecond and picosecond lasers.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ruben.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to nail down what we have heard so far about June September. So it seems like June is at least $30,000,000 below March levels, all else being equal. And then September, it recovers, but Maybe it doesn't get back to March levels, but I wanted to confirm that. And if June September are both below March levels, then what happens So gross margins, are they also below Marsh levels?

Speaker 13

I just wanted to make sure that we disconnect all the dots that we have heard so far on the call.

Speaker 2

Wajid, I think you're on mute.

Speaker 3

Sorry, thank you. Hi, Vivek. So I think that sounds about right. We do try to guide 1 quarter at time just given the number of customers that we have that are over 10% and the type of volatility we can see. But based on the information we've provided, That's probably about the right math.

Speaker 3

Gross margins, we're going well, gross and operating margins, We should be able to see some of the synergies flowing through in our June September quarter that we talked about earlier. We've achieved $60,000,000 exiting the December quarter and we're expecting additional synergies to help us A little bit in March and probably more in June. And so we should be able to see the benefit of that flowing through. And so gross margins should be probably about Flat, at least into the June quarter with some improvement into the September quarter. Some of the new programs that Alan talked about do require some incremental R and D expenses for those large hyperscale customers.

Speaker 3

And so we won't be backing off on those. And OpEx will modulate between June September as well. But I think that's the right way to think about it.

Speaker 2

Sorry, just for clarification, 30% datacom down, not the company down in the June Right, right.

Speaker 13

$30,000,000 Yes.

Speaker 3

And so, $30,000,000 It's about $30,000,000 ish. Yes.

Speaker 13

My follow-up, how do you think about your balance sheet right now? Net leverage It's kind of higher than peers. And so how do you think about the balance sheet right now? Do you think you need to do anything Extraordinary to show it up. And in general, how should we think about just cash flow generation this year?

Speaker 13

So just any comments on the balance sheet would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So we exited the December quarter with a little over $1,200,000,000 in cash. Our expectation is that we'll continue to generate cash flow from operations both in the March quarter and in the June quarter as well. We are making some incremental investments in capital in our Thailand facility that Alan talked to vote. And so that will modulate between March June just depending on when the CapEx comes in and when we pay for it.

Speaker 3

We have a convertible debt due in March, in the middle of March. And so our expectation is that we'll be able to pay that off from the cash that we have on the balance sheet. And that still leaves us with a comfortable level of cash exiting that payoff. So we're quite comfortable with the level of debt we have both on a gross and a net basis, just kind of given those dynamics.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Rebecca. So Drew, I think we have time just for one more question.

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from Amanda Baruah from Loop Capital. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, just sort of going back to the transceiver comp, Alan, Chris, what's a good way to think about overall Gen AI with you right now? I guess how big would you size your kind of Gen AI related business in the December quarter? And I guess what's a good way to think about and you can include ZR in there if you think Did that belong?

Speaker 14

It sounds like, Alan, you in your prior remarks, you think it to some degree, you think it belongs. And then what's a good way to think about sort of, I guess, kind of like the growth rate of those of how you size that J and A related Over the next 12 to 24 months, there are a lot of moving parts with new customers and programs and stuff like that coming on. But any context, both of those questions would be probably pretty useful for us. Appreciate it.

Speaker 6

Sure. I would say as we highlighted on the call, the Cloudlight revenue around $60,000,000 and will be going up significantly here in March quarter with a full quarter of it. I think the vast, vast majority of that given the vast, vast majority of that is 800 gig is going to AI platforms. If you were to look beyond that, then obviously we've got our datacom chip business, which is several tens of 1,000,000 of dollars a quarter as well adding into that. I would be cautious to start throwing in some of the telecom revenue at this point.

Speaker 6

Certainly, data going in and out of the data centers Is relevant, but I think that's more of a longer term story as more data centers are purpose built and spread out further for power consumption reasons that will start to really drive the telecom space. Now going back to the revenue pieces that I highlighted between the Cloudlight transceivers and our datacom chips, I expect, I mean, obviously, we've talked about kind of the dip here over the coming quarters, but if we were to look at that over a several year period to smooth those out. I think the industry expecting that AI is growing at a 50% CAGR or something like that over the next 3 plus years. So I think we've got an opportunity to grow at least as fast as that, if not faster, given our more modest overall market share, but having all of the essential ingredients to be able to be a share gainer.

Speaker 14

That's helpful, Chris. I appreciate it. I'll leave it there. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 1

Thank you so much, Amanda. And now I think we're going to turn the call back over to Alan for some closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Kathy. I would like to leave everybody with a few thoughts as we wrap up the call. We are confident in our agility and leadership position to navigate the current market environment. Momentum stands at the forefront of the data center revolution from pioneering chip scale photonics to automated manufacturing and to new and growing partnerships with hyperscale cloud customers and infrastructure providers.

Speaker 2

Our Cloudlight acquisition has already proven to be a success with a fantastic team and valuable insight propelling our high speed transceiver production to meet surging demand. With that, I would like to thank you for attending today's call, and we look forward to meeting you again at investor conferences, upcoming meetings and at the OFT Show in San Diego. Thank you.

Operator

That concludes today's 2024 Lumentum Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your line.

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Earnings Conference Call
Lumentum Q2 2024
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