Premium Brands Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 15, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Premium Brands Holdings Corporation 4th Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call Question and Answer Session. At this time, all lines are in a listen only mode. This call is being recorded on Friday, March 15, 2024. Our speakers today are George Paliologou, CEO and President of Premium Brands and Will Kalovich, CFO of Premium Brands. I would now like to turn the conference over to George.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Welcome everyone to our 2023 Q4 conference call. With me here today is our CFO, Will Kalutycz. Our presentation today will follow the deck that was posted on our website this morning. You can also access it by clicking on the link of our press release issued this morning.

Speaker 1

We're now on slide Yes. Good morning, everybody. Good morning, ladies

Operator

and gentlemen. We will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question is from Martin Landry from Stifel. Please ask your question.

Speaker 2

Hi. Good morning, George, and good morning, Will. Good

Speaker 3

morning, Martin.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Martin.

Speaker 2

My first question, I would like to go back on the performance in Q4 in Canada. I'm trying to understand the decline in sales. Is it all related to the consumer spending weakness? Or did you lose some listings or clients during the quarter?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, Martin. First of all, I'd like to apologize for the technical difficulties this morning. Yes, again, Martin, nothing unusual with regards to the business, the listings or customers. A lot of segments we're in are highly competitive.

Speaker 1

I think overall, we are focusing all of our companies and our partners to basically expand their margins in general. I think that in the past, as we've acquired companies or brought companies into the PB Ecosystem, we generally encourage them to disinvest from low margin business and to pursue high margin business. I mean, that happens all the time. But I would say that by and large, the majority of the miss was due to lower sales, not because we lost listings, but because the consumer spending environment was exceedingly weak, particularly in December.

Speaker 2

Okay. That's helpful. And then just trying to understand what assumptions you've used for 'twenty four because you do talk in your opening remarks about the potential for an improvement in consumer spending in Canada in 2020 4. So what have you used in your guidance? What kind of assumptions have you used in your guidance in terms of improvement in consumer spending?

Speaker 5

Yes. So for the first half of the year, Martin, we've assumed continued weakness in the Canadian market, particularly in what the impacts in the premium food distribution group. We've also assumed some continuing weakness in Q1 and a bit Q2 in the specialty foods businesses in Canada, with the idea being that, like George says, when we looked at the consumer behavior, it was reasonably solid going into December and then it was a real hit in December. And we seem to have seen things stabilized in January, February, although still a little weaker. So we have factored in some continued weakness, but see that sort of improving in the Q2 and then assuming we start seeing some interest rate decreases, inflation certainly seems to be coming down, seeing a much more improved consumer environment in Canada in the back half of the year.

Speaker 5

Now in terms of the you saw in our presentation, the future big growth driver in our company is are the investments we've been making in the U. S. And so we see that as a steady ramp up throughout the year. So you saw the strong performance in Q4 that should continue in Q1 and continue to ramp up through the course of the year as new programs are enrolled. The other comment I would make, Martin, is that assuming that the weakness

Speaker 1

persists in Canada, then we have other strategies and that we can pursue in terms of redirecting capacity, let's say, in Canada to the U. S. Market. Again, as Will said, we got caught a little bit by surprise in terms of what happened in December. But again, if we determine that this is going to persist long term, there is ways for us to ensure that we continue to grow by dedicating capacity

Speaker 5

is not what is not what's reflected in our numbers. So to the extent that we do see weakness, we're able to expand in the U. S, focus more capacity in the U. S, that's more upside than what's in the current modeling.

Speaker 2

Okay. So Will, is it fair to

Speaker 1

say that it's not going to be

Speaker 2

a straight cadence of increase for this year? It's going to be maybe a little bit more back end loaded in terms of EBITDA growth?

Speaker 5

Yes. Our expectation is you're going to see year over year solid increases throughout the year. But the extent of those increases will they'll be much smaller in Q1, much better in Q2 and then continue to accelerate into Q3 and Q4.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Derek Lessard from TD Cowen. Please ask your question.

Speaker 6

Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Derek. Good morning, Will. I thought that you gave great color and transparency. I think it was the first time you did it and you split out the U.

Speaker 6

S. And Canada. I was wondering if that's something that we can expect continue to expect going forward?

Speaker 5

Yes, it will be. With all our new capacity now starting coming online, Derek, it's going to be a big part of a story and absolutely we'll be tracking it just like you saw in the Q4.

Speaker 6

Okay, super helpful. Like I said, great transparency there and good to hear. You said you mentioned that some products launched into the U. S. Market in recent year have trajectories to become $100,000,000 SKUs assuming capacity availability.

Speaker 6

Can you just maybe highlight some of those SKUs and the opportunities that you're seeing?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think that if you look at the slides on Page 11, I think, of the deck, for example, the chicken bites there that you see in those yogurt like containers have been Slide 8. Sorry, Slide 8, have been extremely successful in the U. S. We've been now selling our capacity and we continue to add more lines.

Speaker 1

We're launching a similar product as we speak. It's a grass fed beef bite in the same type of container. And I can tell you that everybody we presented it to wants it. It's just a matter of us figuring capacity again. We're making some moves to create capacity for that product in the U.

Speaker 1

S. Right now, the product is made in Canada. And again, we see at this point, we see unlimited growth in regards to the demand we're seeing in those items. Those are some of the most successful launches of any product in the U. S.

Speaker 1

Market. Similarly, we're getting good traction with our raw skewers. There's some pictures in the deck, again on Page 8 of the deck. We've gained a lot of distribution in raw skewers in the U. S.

Speaker 1

We're by far the biggest player in raw skewers in the U. S. We've gotten a lot of distribution in the last couple of years. And as we've added capacity, we're gaining more distribution. If I apply the same math to possible demand in the U.

Speaker 1

S. With what we do in Canada with those products, then you easily get to $200,000,000 in sales and maybe a lot more. And then also some of the Italian SKUs that you see again in that picture. If we had capacity today with regards to producing more, it would be fully utilized. So we're working, of course, in adding capacity in Italy to support the growth of our U.

Speaker 1

S. Charcuterie business. Over the last 5 years, we've become by far the largest Italian chacrulee player in Canada, and we've had amazing growth in the U. S. Market.

Speaker 1

So those are 3 items that can easily get to being $100,000,000 SKUs. And I haven't even touched on a lot of the sandwich initiatives, of course, that we've launched over the last few years. I mentioned during the last call that we've done business with a large QSR, a new customer in the U. S. Where we launched 2 SKUs with them last year and we did close to $100,000,000 of the business with them and now we're talking to them about adding more SKUs to the menu, etcetera, etcetera.

Speaker 1

So we have a lot of very exciting initiatives in the U. S. In areas of the business where we're very efficient, we have great capacity, great innovation and that's driving part of the growth you're seeing in the U. S. Market.

Speaker 6

Super helpful, George. And thanks for that. And I guess maybe my final follow-up to that is, and you mentioned a little bit in terms of capacity. So could you maybe talk about sort of the timing of that capacity coming on stream this year?

Speaker 1

Yes. So I have to go by platform, Derek. With regards to specialty bakery, we've commissioned a brand new facility in San Leandro in October of this year. So that capacity is coming on stream, and we're getting very good traction there. We're at the point right now, a few months after commissioning that plant, we're actually looking at finding more capacity to support the growth, which is a good problem to have.

Speaker 1

With regards to cooked protein, we've added capacity in 2 of our cooked protein plants in the U. S. We're looking at acquiring a cooked protein facility. Again, as the schedule says, we have an LOI with regards

Speaker 5

to another

Speaker 1

facility. And then we've added a number of cooked protein lines in some of our plants in Canada. And then with regards to Sandwiches, we commissioned a brand new facility in Edmonton and then we've added capacity in Ohio. There's a picture of the Cleveland, Tennessee plant in the deck. So you could see it's about half complete.

Speaker 1

It's going to be our best and largest facility when completed. And then finally, in protein and meat snacks, we commissioned a brand new facility at Templars in Washington State, which is now operational and is being ramped up. So a lot of capacity expansions in the network.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from George Doumet from Scotiabank. Please ask your question.

Speaker 3

Hi, good morning guys. Maybe a quick question for Will. At the midpoint of the guidance, it looks like we're looking for 60 basis points of margin EBITDA margin expansion. Is that just mix from the higher margin products coming online? Is there any commodity release baked into that?

Speaker 3

Maybe if you could just kind of help us unpack that, please?

Speaker 5

Yes. The two drivers, George, are a little bit of mix in terms of our specialty foods businesses are driving our growth in their higher margin businesses. But then also just the contribution margin story, the sales leveraging story in our specialty foods businesses with all that capacity because when you go through the different drivers, so if you start with bakery and if you look on the slide, you saw the tremendous growth in percentage terms there. Those products can have contribution margins of 40% to 45%, so incredibly accretive to margins. Our sandwich group, another big driver, the new products coming online are generally generating a 25% plus contribution margin.

Speaker 5

And then in our protein group, they're about 30% plus. So again, that's the big driver. In terms

Speaker 7

of commodities and what we've assumed in

Speaker 5

our 'twenty four outlook, You've got some things like beef where we are expecting some inflation, maybe a little bit on chicken, pork relatively stable and a few other things a little deflationary or flat sort of non protein related items. So, yes, a stable commodity assumption is what's built into the outlook.

Speaker 3

And are you baking any promo, Will, any higher level promo perhaps for Canada in that?

Speaker 5

Yes, great question, George. Yes, no, there is. We're looking at a variety of strategies in terms of dealing with the consumer environment. We're just sort of tiptoeing our into the promo category to address that. But we're only doing it in categories where there was a tremendous amount of inflation in the underlying commodity and that inflation is coming off.

Speaker 5

And so we have a lot of room margin wise to do promotion. Our cooked chicken products are a great example. And so instead of dropping list prices, we're doing a little more promotion.

Speaker 1

But at the same time, George, we again, we've delivered a pretty good quarter with regards to margin, EBITDA margin expansion. It's kind of unusual to do that when you have issues with your core market, right? So because we're very focused on margin expansion in general. For us, it's really about optimizing the mix with regards to our capacity. So again, in our business, you can generate lots of sales if you drop prices, right?

Speaker 1

Our focus is really what market do we go after, where we can optimize margins in general, right? So if, let's say, we weigh the benefits of doing a promotion in Canada with do we dedicate the capacity to U. S. Or the overseas markets, right? That's something we do normally.

Speaker 1

But again, if this situation in Canada persists for whatever reason, then we have other options in order to maintain our margins. Okay.

Speaker 3

Thanks for that. And Will, your longer term guidance I think cost around 10% organic top line growth per annum. If we look to just 2024 specifically, is there a quarter where you think you can maybe hit that run rate or maybe go slightly above it?

Speaker 5

Yes. In terms of our certainly in terms of our specialty foods business, George, Q2, we may hit it and certainly by Q3, we expect to be in the double digit range.

Speaker 3

That's helpful. Thanks. And just one last one for me. George, you said something really interesting earlier on about redirecting capacity into the U. S.

Speaker 3

Can you maybe talk a little bit about what products, what facilities will allow us to do that?

Speaker 1

Thanks. Yes. For example, George, if you drive across the border into Washington State today, you will see a lot more premium brand product on the shelves. So a lot of our companies in Canada have been working on developing the U. S.

Speaker 1

Market. It makes a lot of sense for them to do that. They leverage the weak Canadian dollar. They're more competitive with regards to doing business there. So in general terms, the companies in our portfolio that are well developed in the U.

Speaker 1

S, like a Concord Meats, for example, had pretty good quarters. The companies that haven't done that suffered, right, because of the consumer spending environment in Canada. The bottom line is that we have tremendous sales and distribution infrastructure in the U. S. And a lot of our companies are already doing business in the U.

Speaker 1

S. They have customers in the U. S. A lot of times they get requests for more products, but they just don't have the capacity. So, let's say that we find the market challenging in Canada, then we'll make decisions around disinvesting from the Canadian market and dedicating capacity to the U.

Speaker 1

S. Market. It's not as if we're not doing business in the U. S. Now from Canada.

Speaker 1

We do a lot of business from Canada into the U. S.

Speaker 4

Thank you. That's helpful. Bottom

Speaker 1

line. Thank you, George.

Speaker 5

Thanks, George.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Vishal Shreedhar from National Bank. Please ask your question.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Will, just wondering how you feel about the balance sheet, where you are versus where you thought you'd be and how you feel about your inventory levels and the reduction in inventory that you anticipated earlier on in the year?

Speaker 5

Yes. So we had expected to make a little bit more progress on the balance sheet in Q4. As you see, it's relatively stable from Q3. But given some of the consumer challenges in Canada and the impact on sales and EBITDA because of that. But going forward, we expect it to be stable and steadily coming down.

Speaker 5

We're coming to the near the end of our capital program in terms of our existing projects that with the growth in our free cash flow and EBITDA should just naturally deleverage the balance sheet in the coming quarters.

Speaker 8

Okay. And given the consumer hesitancy and the uncertainty overhanging, has there been thought to looking at the target financial metrics for balance sheet and reducing those? I know Premium Brands operates differently, but perhaps more in line with other staples companies.

Speaker 5

Well, really, the only difference in our balance sheet from the more conservative food companies is really the difference between our total and our senior debt EBITDA ratio. So 3 to 1 senior debt to TB ratio is very, very reasonable and maybe even a little bit conservative in the food industry given the stability of our cash flows. So the only difference is the total debt, which is driven by convertible debentures and we've talked about this in the past how for us that's really an equity strategy and over time we expect to at least the majority of those converts that are outstanding convert them to equity, and that's what gives us that little extra comfort on that extra churn over that. Once our the convert market was a unique opportunity in Canada, given interest rates and where they've gone and there's a little question mark on how that market is going to evolve. As our converts fall off table and we replace that with other financing alternatives such as maybe a bond issuance or something like that, yes, you'll naturally see our leverage ratios over the longer term go towards that 3 to 1 or 2.5 to 3 total debt to EBITDA ratio.

Speaker 8

Okay. And that brings me along to the acquisition questions. How should we think about that unfolding? Is it more I know you gave a slide with indicated sales numbers, but that could evolve through the year. Is that more tuck in smaller type deals that we should contemplate?

Speaker 5

Well, we've got, as George mentioned in the prepared remarks, we've got some great opportunities out there, some of them are relatively significant. The reality is we are committed to not further increasing our leverage as a result of an acquisition. So we'll use more creative structures To the extent we issue shares to the founder as part of the transaction, what we do in our valuation models is we value those shares at their intrinsic value, not their market value to ensure we're not diluting our shareholders or creating false returns in our model expectations. And so we've got a number and we've got levers like contingent consideration and some other levers to make sure that when we're doing any acquisitions, it's not going to be a negative impact on our ratios.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 8

Getting back to the Canadian situation and I understand the opportunity to longer term possibly repurpose some capacity, But notwithstanding this switch to discount, it could be there is some commentary out there that it could be more enduring. And if so, is there opportunity or is there a wherewithal to alter products or have some product innovation to address more functionally this discount segment?

Speaker 1

Yes, Vishal, again, for us, we're indifferent as to where our capacity goes, right? Our name is Premium Brands. We produce premium products And we sell them to consumers that are willing to pay a little more for quality, right? That's our ethos, right? And that will always be the case.

Speaker 1

Now, we are partnering with retailers today and we're making, I would say, premium private label products for them to the extent that they want to offer that to their customers. We're in a lot of discussions today about leveraging our capacity to produce premium private label for different retailers in Canada and the U. S. So is it a premium private label product? Absolutely.

Speaker 1

But you're not going to see us cheapen our products or change our formulations to enter the low end of the market. That's simply not what we do, right? We cater to a certain consumer in Canada and the U. S. That is willing to pay premium for clean, high quality products and that will always be the case.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Kyle McVeigh from Cormark Securities. Please ask your question.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. First one on big CapEx. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned gross project CapEx of $380,000,000 over the 6 to 7 quarters or net $126,000,000 after expected sale leasebacks. Can you detail the timing of those sale leasebacks? Like, will we see the gross CapEx numbers flow through your cash flow statement in 2024 and the sale leasebacks come at a later date, maybe out in 'twenty five?

Speaker 4

Any color on that

Speaker 5

would

Speaker 3

be helpful.

Speaker 5

Yes. In terms of the sale leaseback, it's really going to depend on how the industrial leasing market develops, Kyle, it's really sort of industry like we've got a couple of items right now that we're ready to roll into our REIT, but we're just waiting for that industrial lease rate market to normalize, so that we can determine a fair rate for moving it into the REIT. So it's really going to be a timing of what happens in the interest rate market. I suspect we should see a transaction by early in the second quarter and maybe another 1 or 2 in the back half of the year.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. So it sounds like most of that would come in 2024?

Speaker 5

Oh, yes, yes, absolutely.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then on project CapEx for the total 5 year plan, a bunch of it's already sunk now and you've given specific guidance for the next 6 to 7 quarters. But is that total 5 year plan project CapEx still about $800,000,000 or has that plan changed?

Speaker 5

Yes, that hasn't changed. That's still a ballpark number.

Speaker 4

And that was the net of sale leaseback, just to confirm?

Speaker 1

Actually,

Speaker 5

that was a gross number, actually, Kyle. I might have to go back and double check that, but off the top of my head, I believe that was a gross number.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. That's it on CapEx. On EBITDA margin, you already to George's question, you already talked about some of the moving parts feeding the expected EBITDA margin percentage gains in 2024. Can you just address one other moving part?

Speaker 4

I'm not sure if it's meaningful or not, but has anything changed with the margin levels you generate with large contracted clients and the cost plus side of your business?

Speaker 5

Absolutely not. Our cost plus side of our business in our Specialty Foods group is as solid as it ever been. And we continue to develop new programs with those customers. And generally on the new programs, we're getting slightly better contribution margins.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. Thanks for confirming that. Then on Clearwater, I'm looking at the Clearwater performance you disclosed and the earnings drag flowing through your financials that's linked to Clearwater. Should we expect any major changes in 2024 and beyond for your share of their losses flowing through your statements?

Speaker 4

Like are there any major changes with the Clearwater business plan coming to improve that trade?

Speaker 5

Yes, there's lots going on in our Clearwater business, lots of exciting things. Not much we can talk about at this point, Kyle, but we're very optimistic on how things are developing in the Clearwater business. They are one of their biggest headwinds right now is sort of what's happening in the Canadian consumer environment is really outside of the U. S. A global story and they are a global business, so that is impacting them.

Speaker 5

But lots of interesting stuff happening on the value add and some other strategic product initiatives they're working on. So, yes, no, we're optimistic that it will be a much better year for Clearwater in 2024. But also, Kyle,

Speaker 1

it's been a really tough year for the seafood industry in general for the reasons that Will talked about. And I think on a relative basis, Clearwater has performed well on a relative basis. Yes, their numbers are down, but there's a lot of companies in the seafood space in North America and around the world. And Wirth and I were just at the Boston seafood show that have not done well this past year for many, many reasons. Some of them relating to the consumer environment globally, but also some of them relating to the fact that a lot of the companies that are competing in the fisheries that Russia has involved are really upside down now from a global demand and pricing environment.

Speaker 1

So again, it's been it was a rough year. Clearwater did well relative on a relative basis and lots of exciting initiatives in that business to take it to the level.

Speaker 4

Okay. Appreciate all that color. I'm going to squeeze in one more quick one that, will that plant restructuring and startup cost line item, the one time cost bucket, it's been pretty big the last couple of years, what should we expect in 2024?

Speaker 5

Yes, Q4 was the peak quarter and you should see that drop off pretty dramatically over the next couple of quarters and be very small by Q3, Q4 next year. As these new capacities come online, we work through the start up issues and back half of the year, they're contributing meaningfully to our EBITDA.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from John Zamparo from CIBC. Please ask your question.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning, George and Will. I wanted to start on the sales outlook and it looks like it's an organic guide between 6% and 9% for 2024. I suspect the answer is yes here, but are we right to think that the Specialty foods would be on the higher end or maybe even above that and PSD on the lower end or below that range for the year? Absolutely.

Speaker 9

As I mentioned earlier, specialty foods by the Q2, we expect to be

Speaker 5

in the double digits growth. And we are projecting premium foods distribution group around lobsters, the lobster industry and the consumer impact has been much more dramatic on them than on our specialty foods discount banners. Our specialty foods businesses can pivot easily and sort of work on products and listings and initiatives to get into those discount banners, which historically they've been under indexed in. But in our premium beef and seafood programs through the premium food distribution group, it's a little tougher because it's just it's a different consumer generally from that discount banner consumer.

Speaker 9

Okay. Got it. One follow-up on the PFD then. The challenges you've seen in the lobster business, does that continue for another couple of quarters until you get another opportunity for a harvesting season in Q3? Like is that going to happen, I suppose, irrespective of whatever consumers are doing in terms of their purchasing behavior?

Speaker 5

Yes. No, it's certainly going to continue into Q1 because there is no major fishery to address the supply issues. And then as spring hits and the vessels are out more regularly, assuming normal weather, then you should see that being addressed in Q2, Q3, But we have taken a relatively conservative outlook on that.

Speaker 9

Okay. Okay. The 24 EBITDA outlook, when you think about the role that plant openings play in that, are there 1 or 2 plants that are required to be opened in 'twenty four that

Speaker 5

you need to get to the EBITDA level you're guiding to? Yes. So the in terms of the plants George went through earlier, the real key ones have been the Hamplers facility, which is now up and running, the San Leandro USDA Baked facility, which is now up and running, and then our cooked facilities, our cooked protein initiatives with our King's Command and Made Right businesses, which they're just in the process, so they're the next critical step. And then finally in the mid year, we're looking for the Columbus capacity to come on stream. So those are the real core ones that are baked into our 2024 outlook.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's helpful. And then one last one. Last quarter, we talked about a couple of potentially material drivers for sales growth. 1 was $100,000,000 opportunity in Asia.

Speaker 9

The other was one that, George, you mentioned earlier with your relatively new QSR customer. Are either of those expected to be meaningful contributors to 24 or are those longer term goals?

Speaker 1

Yes, definitely. We are both channels are expected to perform better than what we had anticipated during the last quarterly call. So we made good traction in both channels. We're getting more and more listings in Asia, for example, and more listings with this particular So we're on target.

Operator

Your next question is from Chris Lee from Dijonim. Please ask your question.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning George and Will.

Speaker 5

Hi Chris.

Speaker 7

Hi, there. So I think you've already mentioned this maybe in the beginning. I'm just wondering with Q1 now pretty much in the books, I was wondering if you can provide a bit more colors in terms of how the quarter is playing out. Is it fair to assume a lot of the same trends that we saw in Q4 sort of continuing on into Q1?

Speaker 5

Well, that's a very difficult question at this point, Chris, just because the seasonality of our businesses, Q1 sorry, the first two periods, which we're through now in the quarter, are much less significant than the last period where we start to gain some of the momentum going into the spring and the more seasonally strong periods. But looking at the first two periods of the quarter, they're tracking plan. So we feel really good about that. But it's the 3rd period that is the critical one that will set the tone for the quarter. And it's sort of it's very similar to the Q4 where the Q4 is also a seasonally slow quarter, particularly in October November and then December there is a nice push of business associated with the holiday season.

Speaker 5

So it's similarly, it's that last period of the quarter that really sets the tone for the quarter.

Speaker 7

I see. That's helpful. And I just want to confirm, you said earlier that you expect double digit organic volume growth in specialty foods by Q2, you're referring specifically in the U. S, is that right?

Speaker 5

No, for the group overall.

Speaker 7

For the group overall. And do

Speaker 5

you have And just to clarify that Chris, with the U. S. Being well, you saw it in Q4, effectively, you took out some unusual factors in the numbers and it was well into the double digits already and we expect that to accelerate in 2024. Canada will not be double digits obviously, they're going to be at the lower end of our growth expectations, but the blend will be double digit. And that's

Speaker 1

been the case for a while, Chris. Our U. S. Business have been our U. S.

Speaker 1

Business in our Specialty Foods segment have been the driver of our growth in the last few years. That's how we went from very little sales to $2,500,000,000 right? So and again, with a lot of the capacity expansions we've done, we expect that to the growth to accelerate, right? But we're very mature in terms of our business in Canada. But we're early stage in regards to the U.

Speaker 1

S. Market. There's lots of runway for us to grow in the U. S.

Speaker 7

And just to confirm, so from where you sit today, you do have good visibility of achieving that double digit growth in Q2? Absolutely, Chris. Okay. That's helpful. And then sorry, I'm kind of newbie to the name still, but I'm just also a bit surprised by the diversions in the consumer between Canada and the U.

Speaker 7

S. In terms of the impact that it had on your performance in specialty foods this quarter. Is that also part of your function of the differences in terms of the customer channel that you serve and the product mix that also resulted in that stark difference between Canada and the U. S?

Speaker 1

No. Again, Chris, we've been doing business in the U. S. For a long time, particularly on the West Coast of the U. S.

Speaker 1

And I would say historically, the consumer behavior is very similar. But in December, we saw a disconnect. In other words, the U. S. Market seemed to be strong.

Speaker 1

U. S. Consumer was out there spending and the Canadian consumer was holding back. And we think it's because maybe in the U. S, they have 30 year mortgage rates, so the higher rates just don't impact them as much as in Canada.

Speaker 1

Anyway, I don't know all the reasons, but certainly the Canadian consumer is trying to save money when they go grocery shopping and we're not seeing that in the U. S. And I've been in this business for 35 years and this is the first time I've seen this.

Speaker 7

And I just have maybe 2 more questions. Just in the U. S. Again, the temporary sales challenges with your large QS customer in the U. S, Can you just remind us again what's happening there?

Speaker 7

And do you expect that those challenges to persist in the first half?

Speaker 5

Yes. So it's a really interesting story, Chris. It's a major customer. They traditionally displayed our product in their stores for consumers and at the end of the day, the products that got displayed got thrown out. So it was waste for our customer, but those are sales for us.

Speaker 5

And as part of their food waste programs, part of the way their business is developing, they're no longer displaying those products. And so that's sort of a one time hit for us for 4 quarters that started in the 2nd quarter. So you're going to see that continuing in the 1st and second quarters of 2024. But then after that, it's gone. It's a really isolated specific situation.

Speaker 5

And it was the right

Speaker 1

terms of what they did. And now they've got pictures of the product as opposed to displaying them, right? And it will impact 12 months' worth

Speaker 5

of sales for us, but then we basically lap it. But the program itself continues to grow at solid organic growth rates and continues to be incredibly successful.

Speaker 7

That's great. That's very helpful. And my last question just maybe on Specialty Foods on the gross margin. In the quarter, it did increase, but the pace of increase has slowed compared to recent quarters. I'm just wondering, is it just the slowdown is because you're moderating some of the raw material costs and that's kind of run its cost or is it less volume and leverage or what should have drove that slowdown in gross margin?

Speaker 5

It's solely due to the contraction of the Canadian sales, Chris. And it's when a contribution margin and plant overhead coverage. And then added to that is there is a little bit of additional plant overhead in the new plants we've been bringing online. So that's also a temporary headwind.

Speaker 1

But again, the Q4, generally, it's a slower quarter, right, Chris? So there's sort of the leverage the plant leverage aspect to that, right?

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Good afternoon, guys.

Speaker 1

Hey, Steve.

Speaker 10

Just wanted to follow-up on a couple of things. Just with respect to kind of the three factors that were weighing on the Specialty Foods U. S. Organic volume growth, You just addressed the sandwiches in the last question. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about sort of where you're sitting now with respect to, I guess, the capacity delays as well as the product launches that have been pushed into Q1.

Speaker 10

Do you still have visibility on both of those things kind of coming to fruition as expected?

Speaker 5

Yes, in terms of the product launches, absolutely, that was a very easy one from a visibility perspective. In terms of the plants coming online, the pace like the key ones in the quarter that impacted Q4, the delays were in the Hemplers facility, which is now up and running. There's still some yield and efficiency issues, but in terms of throughput, they're starting to hit their numbers. So we're fine there relative to our plan. And then the Kings Command cooked protein capacity expansion, another one we expected to come online in Q4 is now just ramping up and it's in the line with our expectations for the quarter at this point.

Speaker 10

Okay, that's great. Thanks Will. Just looking at just a slight nuance from the presentation. On the acquisitions chart, I noticed that the active opportunities sort of dropped quite a bit quarter over quarter. And I'm just wondering what you would attribute that to.

Speaker 10

Is that just the timing of how these things evolve? Or is there something else that was happening?

Speaker 1

Yes. We've always said, Stephen, what's relevant is the 3 columns on the left of the page. A lot of times, this is small industry. Some of the bigger stuff, if we put into the active file, people may guess who they are. So we're just trying to be as be transparent without violating any confidentiality agreements.

Speaker 5

Yes. And a transaction can go from the early stage to the advanced stage incredibly quickly. Yes.

Speaker 10

Yes. Okay, that both makes sense. Thank you. And then just on the Canadian business, you

Speaker 7

guys kind

Speaker 10

of addressed it by noting that December had slowed down materially. But just as you think about that trade down on a full quarter basis, was it worse in Q4 than it was in Q3?

Speaker 5

Absolutely. Like I say, October November, we really we saw maybe flatter sales. It was really December that surprised us.

Speaker 10

Yes. Okay, great. And then my last one is just a modeling question. Corporate costs kind of trending in that looks like $30,000,000 a year range, maybe high 20s. Is that a good number to use going forward?

Speaker 5

Yes. So our corporate costs for 2023 were lower than normal. Again, our bonus programs are and it was primarily related to bonus accruals. Our programs are based on the growth in our free cash flow per share on a fully diluted basis. And unfortunately, we did not hit those targets this year.

Speaker 5

So there was a significant reduction in the bonus for the year. So if you were looking at 2023 as your guide, you probably want to add about $4,000,000 or $5,000,000 to that, assuming a really solid year growth in our free cash flow per share.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Sabahat Khan from RBC Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks very much. There's been a bit of discussion just about kind of the sales potentially taking advantage of the opportunity in the U. S. I guess as you think about the 2 markets overall, how would you describe, I guess, margin differential?

Speaker 11

I think George noted you're not that indifferent. You're not very picking on which market you're selling in, but are we assuming it's similar margins? Is U. S. Better or worse?

Speaker 11

How should we think about that?

Speaker 1

I would say overall, it's similar, Sabrina. I'd say similar. Certainly, our strategies are similar in terms of the way we position the product and the way we sell the product. Sometimes, if the Canadian dollar is weaker, we benefit a little more because to the extent that we make the product in Canada and sell it into the U. S.

Speaker 1

But overall, I'd say similar.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. And then

Speaker 10

just on the Clearwater, I think

Speaker 11

you noted that you expect some level of improvement there into next year. Just I guess, does that give you some confidence even with some of the softness there recently and their ability to continue to make cash payments, I guess, for the interest portion and the management fee portion in line with kind of in the past?

Speaker 5

Yes. We are expecting an improvement in the amount of cash flow we get relative on our accrued interest that so far as well as existing our future interest.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Derek Lessard from TD Cowen. Please ask your question.

Speaker 6

Yes, guys. Just a few follow ups for me. I wanted to hit on in the press release, you talked about the underlying lobster biomass being healthy. But if you kind of read some of the news coming out of the U. S, it sort of flies in the face of that comment.

Speaker 6

I was just wondering if you can maybe help square away the healthyness of that. I think the U. S. Legislation is supposed to increase catch sizes in 2025.

Speaker 5

Yes. So I'm not sure where that information is coming from, Derek. We're incredibly involved in terms of managing and all our indications are is the biomass is incredibly healthy. It's gone a little deeper because the waters have gotten a little warmer and that's kind of what's somewhat related to that weather issue because now the vessels have to go out a little further, so they need a little bit better weather to do that. But in terms of the biomass itself, all our indications are it's very healthy.

Speaker 1

And this is scientific, right? This is based on the constant monitoring of the biomass in both Canada and the U. S.

Speaker 6

Okay. I just want to clarify that. And that's fair. And just maybe housekeeping on working cap. Last quarter, you did mention you're hoping reduce inventories by another $50,000,000 Are you still expecting a further reduction in inventories?

Speaker 6

And overall, I guess how should we think about working capital in 'twenty four?

Speaker 5

Yes. In terms of inventories, we made a little bit of progress in the quarter. Like it gets a little tricky in terms of moving from quarter to quarter because now we go into seasonality factors, so there's a natural increase in our inventory. So we tend to understand where our inventories are on a year over year basis, you kind of have to look at the days in inventory on a year over year basis. But if we look at the Q4, we still feel we were about 4 days of inventory heavy 4 days of purchases and inventory heavy in the quarter.

Speaker 5

So that would be about $50,000,000 plus of inventory. We still have some work to get done. And there was some factors driving that. There were some opportunistic buys in the business. And there was, I mentioned earlier, the delays in some sales initiatives, which meant the inventory sat in our warehouse instead of gone shipped.

Speaker 5

So there is that kind of some of that stuff that contributed to that $50,000,000 but there is still some work to be done. And hopefully that just naturally, we see that over the next quarter as we go into the busy season now and there's a natural inventory build and that build will need to be less than it has been in the past.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to George for the closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Yes. I'd like to thank everybody for attending today. Again, sorry about the technical difficulties early on. Back to you, Jenny.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Premium Brands Q4 2023
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