Signet Jewelers Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 20, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Signet Jewelers 4th Quarter Fiscal 20 24 Earnings Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note this event is being recorded. Joining us on the call today are Rob Belew, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Jen O'Drasos, Chief Executive Officer and Joan Hilson, Chief Financial, Strategy and Services Officer.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn this conference over to Mr. Rob Belew, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Welcome to Signet Jewelers' 4th quarter and fiscal 2024 earnings conference call. During today's discussion, we will make certain forward looking statements. Any statements that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially.

Speaker 1

Here's you to read the risk factors, cautionary language and other disclosures in our annual report on Form 10 ks, quarterly reports on Form 10 Q and current reports on Form 8 ks. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly update forward looking statements in light of new information or future events. During the call, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. For further discussions of the non GAAP financial measures. As well as a reconciliation of the non GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, investors should review the news release we posted on our website at ir.signetjewelers.com.

Speaker 1

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jenna.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Rob, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before we discuss both our fiscal fiscal 'twenty five expectations, I'd like to thank our Signet team. They delivered on our expectations in a year that experienced a deep COVID induced engagement trough and an overstocked industry that drove an elevated promotional environment for the jewelry category. You continue to inspire me. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication this year.

Speaker 2

I'd like to leave you with 3 key takeaways today. First, we delivered on our financial commitments this quarter with EPS above the high end of our guidance range. 2nd, excluding non recurring legacy legal settlements, for the 4th year in a row, we generated over $600,000,000 in free cash flow. This is nearly 15% of our market cap. 3rd, we expect same store sales to improve throughout fiscal year 2025 as the engagement recovery gains velocity.

Speaker 2

I'll elaborate on each of these takeaways beginning with this quarter's results. We delivered sales of $2,500,000,000 this quarter, down roughly 6% of last year. As anticipated, we saw a late shopper this holiday as value conscious consumers were holding out to get the best deals and had one extra weekend to shop for gifts. We leveraged branding, innovation and value engineering within our newness to provide customers a competitive value proposition along with size trade up options in categories like lab created products. Our strategy resonated with our customers as we saw new items sell through at an impressive 700 basis point increase to a year ago.

Speaker 2

Our strategy, which worked all year, was also effective in the Q4 as we held North American average transaction value nearly flat and expanded our non GAAP gross margin by 170 basis points to this time last year. Conversely, industry data suggests independent jewelers accelerated their deep discounts in lab created diamonds and stepped up their discounting for natural diamonds modestly. This resulted in heavy AUR declines among independents. Our lifecycle product management continues to be a source of strength, driving inventory levels down 10% compared to the prior year. As we take markdowns on slower moving products earlier, this also allows us to bring in relevant new items faster, which have higher margins.

Speaker 2

Continuing the trend we saw for most of fiscal 2024, jewelry retailers that cater to the low priced fashion category outperformed. Likewise, Banter, our value oriented fashion banner delivered the strongest same store sales in the U. S. This quarter, nearly flat. We also saw strong performances at Peoples in Canada and Value Banner H.

Speaker 2

Samuel in the UK, both of which delivered positive same store sales over the holidays. Offsetting the stronger performance in our core, we had challenges in our digital banners from operational and integration issues resulting in lower fulfillment, which has continued into fiscal 2025. This was caused by the integration of Blue Nile with production partners, resulting in lower conversion rates in the last 6 weeks of the quarter, reducing our overall North American same store sales by one point. We are working to resolve these issues and expect to have fixes implemented later this year. We also underperformed in our Ernest Jones banner in the UK, in part from macro challenges as well as a more negative halo impact from the November sale of our luxury watch stores.

Speaker 2

We estimate our U. S. Jewelry merchandise market share for fiscal 2024 was approximately 9%, down modestly from the prior year, driven by mix shift with lower engagements as well as the relative strength in lower price self purchase items where we have less penetration. We believe that we expanded our market share in the bridal category for fiscal 2024 by approximately 50 basis points, which is where we over indexed to the industry with nearly 30% market share. The second takeaway today is that our flexible operating model is working as designed and generating significant cash fueled by continued cost savings, sourcing efforts and inventory discipline.

Speaker 2

We continue to drive working capital efficiencies in our business, which led to a 97% free cash conversion to non GAAP operating income. We believe our ability to drive free cash flow will continue. This allows us to invest in the growth of our business, bringing critical newness and to return significant capital to shareholders. Last year, we returned nearly $200,000,000 to shareholders and we have returned nearly $1,000,000,000 to shareholders over the last 3 years. This morning, we announced a $200,000,000 increase in our share repurchase authorization, bringing our total remaining availability to approximately $850,000,000 This is higher than the outstanding conversion market value of the LGP preferred shares.

Speaker 2

We believe share buybacks remain a very attractive use of capital for our shareholders. We also announced a 26 percent increase in our common dividend to $0.29 this quarter, our 3rd consecutive year growing our dividend, which even after this increase represents less than 10% of our free cash flow in fiscal 2024. Our strong free cash flow also strengthened our balance sheet. We ended fiscal 2024 with $2,500,000,000 in total liquidity, which is $1,000,000,000 above our target of $1,500,000,000 This gives us the dry powder to handle both our $148,000,000 unsecured notes that mature in June as well as the convertible preferreds that mature in November, while staying well within our liquidity goals. As a reminder, the convertible preferreds also represent and our midterm goals.

Speaker 2

We are in active discussions with our board and LGP on the best way to retire the preferred shares in fiscal 2025 and we plan to give further updates as these discussions progress. The 3rd takeaway is that we believe Signet will see sequential same store sales improvement throughout fiscal 2025. One component is the return of engagements in the U. S. We saw industry engagement unit sales consistent with our expectations in the 4th quarter and after a deceleration in January early February, we saw notable improvement in the back half of February March.

Speaker 2

The milestones that we track show that the number of couples that have experienced more than 25 of the engagement milestones has increased 500 basis points since early 2023. We believe engagements in the U. S. Should increase this year between 5% 10%. This is a clear opportunity to attract new customers.

Speaker 2

Signet provides tenured knowledge, known brands, consistent newness and a full range of customization options. We believe the shape of this year's engagement growth will have a more material impact in the second half of the year as customers continue to plan the majority of engagements around October through February. Our customer data platform now includes 17,000,000 customers known to be in dating relationships. And we use this data to provide personalized marketing and education to attract engagement customers. After our customers engagement ring sale, we look to build lifelong relationships as we'll be there for birthdays, anniversaries and milestone occasions as well as providing the services to keep their jewelry collection protected and looking its best.

Speaker 2

We will also continue to build brand equity, utilizing scale capabilities that will win new customers, including targeted personalized marketing. In fact, recently we tested 28 days sprints of personalized marketing among K customers and early results are driving a more than 10% revenue lift versus a control group. Over the last 6 years, we got smaller 3 fleet optimization to set ourselves up to get bigger. In fiscal 2025, we will invest to grow strategically in markets where we see great returns, including a hometown market strategy for Kaye and to improve the shopping experience for our customers within our stores through renovations. We are opening up to 30 new stores and renovating an additional 300 stores in order to drive brand relevance in our highest productivity doors.

Speaker 2

We've seen strong returns from these early investments of between 15% to 25% IRR. Services which outperformed merchandise by more than 1,000 basis points for the 4th quarter remains a key area of growth in fiscal 2025. We look to expand services further through B2B services with independents and insurance companies where we offer exceptional value given our scale and breadth of service offerings. We will also drive post repair extended service agreement or ESA offerings to customers who did not buy an ESA initially or are seeking repairs on a piece not purchased at Signet. Following our nearly 350 basis points increase in fiscal 2024, we continue to see the opportunity to further improve attachment rates in fiscal 2025, both in store and online.

Speaker 2

Now I'll briefly comment on results so far for fiscal 2025. Similar to Christmas, Valentine's Day shoppers were late and highly value motivated. As a result, January early February trend was quite soft with comp sales down mid teens. Since early February, trends have notably improved with same store sales down mid to high single digits. The core business continues to outperform with digital banners operational issues dragging comps down.

Speaker 2

We believe consumers will remain focused on value this year as they make important trade offs in their budgets and our ability to bring newness and innovation will be a differentiator. To summarize my comments today, I'd like to reiterate our 3 key takeaways. First, we delivered on our commitments again this quarter, including non GAAP EPS above our high guide. 2nd, we generated over $600,000,000 in pro form a free cash flow for the 4th year in a row. Our flywheel operating model is driving strong free cash conversion, which we're using to return capital to shareholders, improve our balance sheet and invest in our business to drive growth.

Speaker 2

And third, we believe we will see same store sales improvement through fiscal 2025 with same store sales turning positive during the back half of the year in our core banners, driven by engagement recovery, strengthened brand equities, product newness and new customer acquisition, all while maintaining cost discipline. I'll now turn the call over to Jen. Thanks, Jenna, and good morning, everyone. Revenue for the quarter was within our expectations at $2,500,000,000 down 6% compared to the prior year. Same store sales were down 9.6%, but improved to the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 2

This reflects acceleration in bridal and fashion categories. While December was our best same store sales performance of the quarter, January was somewhat below expectations, driven in part by integration issues in our digital banners. Our engagement performance improved several 100 basis points compared to the Q3 and our overall incidence of engagements were in line with our expectations, excluding digital banners. This quarter included a 53rd week, which generated $103,000,000 in sales and was largely the difference between total sales and same store sales declines. Our North America ATV for the quarter declined 60 basis points to last year and transactions were down roughly 7%.

Speaker 2

The relatively flat performance in ATV is notable compared to the more significant declines in AUR for independent jewelers due to their deep discounting. Our stable AUR during the quarter was driven by our assortment strategy, which provided our customers with several options to trade up through innovation and value engineering. Services grew 5% to last year, driven by an attachment rate that increased by nearly 3 50 basis points, reflecting newly implemented offerings like post repair ESAs as well as point of sale prompting for our jewelry consultants. We delivered gross margin of $1,100,000,000 this quarter or over 43% of sales, with non GAAP gross margins up 170 basis points to the prior year. Merchandise margin also grew by 140 basis points on a non GAAP basis led by services and an increased mix in newness and LCD merchandise.

Speaker 2

Turning to SG and A, our non GAAP expense of $670,000,000 reflects 26.8 percent of sales, 70 basis points higher than last year as we deleveraged somewhat against fixed costs. However, this reflects meaningful improvement to prior quarters with cost savings near the high end of our expectations. Our non GAAP operating income was $410,000,000 for the quarter or 16.4 percent of sales, delivering $5,000,000 more than the prior year on lower revenue. Non GAAP EPS for the quarter was $6.73 per diluted share, up 22% from the prior year on higher operating income, higher net interest income and a lower effective tax rate. For the full year, we delivered $7,200,000,000 in sales, reflecting 11.6% decline in same store sales with gross margin of $2,800,000,000 or more than 39% of sales.

Speaker 2

This is up 30 basis points from fiscal 2023 on a non GAAP basis, reflecting a merchandise margin increase of 110 basis points, partially offset by deleveraging of fixed costs on a lower sales base. Non GAAP SG and A for the year of $2,200,000,000 or 30.4 percent of sales was up to last year largely due to the fixed cost portion of labor. Non GAAP operating income for the year was $643,000,000 and resulted in a $10.37 non GAAP diluted earnings per share with EPS above the high end of our expectations. Our GAAP EPS of $15.01 was positively impacted by a $263,000,000 non recurring benefit or $4.88 per share from the impact of new tax legislation in Bermuda, which resulted in the recognition of a deferred tax asset in Q4. Due to this new legislation, beginning in fiscal 2026 or a year from now, our effective tax rate on income in Bermuda will increase to a minimum of 15%, which is expected to increase our overall effective tax rate nearly 4%.

Speaker 2

This $263,000,000 benefit also provides an offsetting impact on cash taxes owed over the next 10 years or roughly $26,000,000 a year. This means our cash tax rate will be well below our effective tax rate. Our ending inventory of $1,900,000,000 was down 10% to the prior year, a larger reduction than year over year sales and down more than $600,000,000 compared to pre pandemic excluding acquisitions. And including memo inventory, it was down more than $1,000,000,000 in our core businesses. We continue to focus on lifecycle management, taking markdowns earlier when merchandise performance does not meet our turn expectations.

Speaker 2

In order to capture more margin before SKUs reach clearance. We continue to see opportunity in optimizing our inventory, particularly as we lean into AI to drive assortments at the store level. These efficiencies translate directly to cash flow and higher margins. We ended the year with inventory turns of 1.4 times in line with the prior year. Turning to leverage.

Speaker 2

Gross debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.3 times with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of negative 0.7 times as our cash of $1,400,000,000 exceeded approximately $800,000,000 of outstanding debt. We continue to grow confidence in our ability to generate free cash flow each year, driven by our flexible operating model and continued efficiencies. As we look forward into the year and the maturities ahead of us, we are reducing our gross debt to adjusted EBITDAR leverage target down by 0.25 times to be at or below 2.5 times. And we are introducing a debt to adjusted EBITDA target of atorbelow1.25 times, which would imply net debt to adjusted EBITDA below 0.5 times at the end of fiscal 2025. This year, our unsecured notes mature in June and our convertible preferred shares mature in November.

Speaker 2

Our fortress balance sheet and strong liquidity and cash conversion allow us to address these maturities in full and further debt issuances would be done opportunistically. Turning to real estate. Last year, we closed 114 locations, mostly comprised of lower performing mall locations and UK stores. We ended the year with roughly 2,700 locations across our banners, down more than 500 stores from fiscal 2020. Our ending store count also reflects the sale in November of 15 Prestige Lodge locations in the UK for an accretive multiple to continue our focus on our core higher margin jewelry business, as well as 2 additional locations subsequent to that transaction, including 1 in February.

Speaker 2

Based on the strong performances we've seen up tiering Jared, Diamonds Direct new stores and the K New and remodeled stores, we plan to increase our investments in our fleet. In total, we expect approximately $160,000,000 to $180,000,000 in capital expenditures this year, including 20 to 30 new stores and renovating approximately 300 locations, including 200 ks stores, 50 Jared locations and 6 Diamond Direct stores to enhance the customer experience. We also expect to invest $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 in digital and technology in support of our consumer and team member experiences. Turning to guidance. Looking to the Q1, we expect total sales in the range of $1,470,000,000 to $1,530,000,000 with same store sales down between 11% 7%, including a 2 point negative impact from our digital banner issues mentioned earlier.

Speaker 2

As a result of modest suite optimization and luxury large store sales, returning to a 52 week fiscal year and as a generally popular investor request, we are reintroducing same store sales guidance. Early Valentine's Day shopping was down mid teens consistent with January performance. Since Valentine's Day, same store sales have improved notably, up 2 to 3 points to the 4th quarter and a further point when excluding our digital banners. We forecast that the number of engagements in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Will be down low to mid single digits in the Q1 of the year. We expect non GAAP operating income between $40,000,000 $60,000,000 We are also introducing adjusted EBITDA guidance this year upon request from investors. In the Q1, we expect adjusted EBITDA between $87,000,000 to $107,000,000 We expect flat to modest improvement in gross margins in the Q1, while deleveraging in SG and A on lower same store sales. For the year, we expect fiscal 2025 total sales in the range of 6.66 dollars to $7,020,000,000 We expect a range of down 4.5% to up 0.5% for same store sales this year, including a 1.5% to 2% drag from our digital banners and an approximately negative 0.5% impact from the negative halo of our Ernest Jones banner in the UK. We believe our core banners will continue to outperform with same store sales approximately flat at the midpoint for the year.

Speaker 2

We expect to resolve the issues in our digital banners in the second half of the year, but it is not reflected as such in guidance. These issues are solely related to the James Allen and Blue Nile integration and are not tied to nor are they impacting the e commerce channels of our core banners, which are performing well. We believe consumers will continue to be impacted by the elevated inflation over the last 2 years in fiscal 2025. Consumers continue to focus on value in the current environment and our new items will be focused on price points that appeal to consumers across a variety of demographics. We also anticipate continued elevated promotions among independent jewelers this year.

Speaker 2

We expect engagement activity to be up 5% to 10% for the U. S. In fiscal 2025. As such, we expect our same store sales to improve as the year progresses. Our guidance range assumes a fairly similar 3 year same store sales stack in Q1 and for the full year.

Speaker 2

We are also cycling off the 53rd week that was over $100,000,000 $75,000,000 in the UK from selling 17 Prestige Watch locations and closing up to 30 Ernest Jones locations and another $50,000,000 from total closures in FY 2024 and fiscal 2025. Net of new store openings, we expect our overall net square footage to be flat or to decline slightly. The closures of the Ernest Jones locations in the UK is part of our efforts to right size that banner and shift sales to digital and other locations. We are also streamlining our overhead in the UK and expect to achieve margins in line with the rest of the company within 3 years. Fiscal 2025 non GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $590,000,000 to $675,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA between $780,000,000 to $865,000,000 with modest non GAAP operating margin expansion.

Speaker 2

This reflects cost savings of $150,000,000 to $180,000,000 this year from a new 3 year initiative to drive $350,000,000 in costs out of the system leveraging AI, streamlining non customer facing expenses in addition to increasing sourcing efficiencies. We expect cost savings to be more impactful in the second half of the year as we see the benefit from sourcing savings and inventory churn. We expect modest deleverage in SG and A from the reset of incentive compensation and investments in e commerce channels and customer and team member experiences, offset by gross margin expansion. Full year non GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $9.08 to $10.48 Importantly, our EPS estimates for the year assumes the dilution of the preferred shares for the entire fiscal year. As I close my comments today, I want to thank our talented Cigna team members.

Speaker 2

Their passion for our millions of new and loyal customers and their dedication to ongoing consumer inspired innovation results in an unrivaled experience in our industry. Our team is why we have excellent Net Promoter Score, both online and in our stores. I'll now open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez from Citigroup. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hey, everyone. Brandon Schiedem on for Paul. I wanted to dig in on what you're seeing on the engagement side to update your forecast. Now you're looking for 5% to 10% increase for the year versus what I think was a 10% increase previously. I'm just wondering, can you walk us through the progression as the year continues?

Speaker 3

And does that assume an acceleration in 4Q? Does 4Q end up higher than 10% to get there?

Speaker 2

Brandon, thanks for your questions. So we're seeing engagements recover as we expected they would. We saw the trough happen in Q4, and we're expecting, as you'll recall, a gradual and incremental improvement in engagement trends over the next 3 years. So it takes a bit to recover. We've also continued to see progress on the 45 milestones that we track.

Speaker 2

We have statistically significant data that shows us that once a couple has experienced a certain number of the proprietary milestones

Speaker 1

that we've identified and

Speaker 2

that number being 25, they're much more and that's up 500 basis points versus just a year ago. So we expect engagements to strengthen as fiscal year 2025 progresses. We think it's 5% on the low side of our guide, 10% on the high side of our guide for the fiscal year, but that will naturally be back weighted. And that has to do with both the gradual recovery as well as the seasonality of engagements. More couples tend to get engaged in the October to February timeframe.

Speaker 2

So, it will likely be more back weighted.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thanks for that. And I was wondering, could you quantify the ticket and transactions that you saw, particularly in the first half of February and where those metrics are now? And did you see pressure in any particular segment bridal or fashion? And is there incremental pressure that you weren't expecting on the high end?

Speaker 2

So I think if we go back to Q4 and we don't quantify all the tickets, but one of the things that we were proud of how our team executed in the Q4 was maintaining a stable average transaction value despite significant discounting from independent jewelers, especially on lab created that was in bridal and in fashion. So that did put some pressure on average transaction value. But because we brought so much newness, which sold through

Speaker 1

so well and we value engineer that

Speaker 2

newness to provide an Those trends of independent deep discounting have pretty much continued into the Q1, I would say. And I think what we saw in the jewelry category in January early February was pretty similar to the rest of retail. It was a low traffic time and a challenged consumer.

Speaker 3

Got it. I appreciate it. Thanks and good luck.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the engagement discussion. You did talk about unit sales consistent with expectations for engagement in the Q4. Was there some softness in pricing versus your expectations?

Speaker 2

And then how has that competitive landscape been included in the guidance for this coming year? So the reason hey, Lorraine, the reason that we talk about units is because we're thinking about the number of couples getting engaged. And that's, like I said, has been recovering very consistently to what we thought. Similar to my answer to Brandon, we have seen some pressure particularly driven by deep discounting among independent jewelers. You'll remember they didn't predict the engagement trough as well as we did.

Speaker 2

And so we're over inventoried all year. They were working through that inventory still in the Q4 and so a lot of pressure on moving that through. I think that while we have seen their continued discounting into the Q1, I would anticipate that the inventories are recovering somewhat. And so that could be a help. I also think that consumers are becoming more aware that lab created diamond prices are falling.

Speaker 2

And so while they might be great for fashion jewelry, there's something very rare and that individual about a natural diamond. And so we think that, that is a potential tailwind for natural diamonds in the year ahead. And then, can you talk give us some of your insights on the competitive landscape on the non bridal business and what your expectations are for that this year? Sure. So the part of category overall that has been performing the best is low priced fashion jewelry.

Speaker 2

So, you know, banter, our value banner competes in that space. H. Samuel in the UK competes in that space. But overall, we have reasonably low exposure to very low priced fashion jewelry. The place where we think we have an opportunity in particular is in gold, where we have some sourcing advantages and direct partnerships with factories to really value engineer jewelry.

Speaker 2

Also bringing lab created into fashion proved to be a good strategy for us over the holidays. And our newness was well positioned to trade customers up into price points that we do uniquely carry over the holidays. We have a 700 basis point improvement in how our new items sold through over holiday by pursuing that strategy. I would just add on to that. The idea of newness and the green shoots that we saw in holiday, particularly in fashion and in their new bridal offerings.

Speaker 2

Our intention and included within the guidance that we've given for FY 2025 is a higher complement of newness based on the run rate and testing that we saw in the holiday selling period, Lorraine.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, maybe for Joan. Well, first of all, on the gross margin line, I think you commented to be a lot to slightly up in 1Q. On that kind of negative comp, that's pretty impressive. Can you kind of just walk us through the headwinds and the moving pieces on gross in the Q1 and how you're able to kind of sustain that?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ike. So our Q1 continues with the sourcing savings and sourcing efficiencies that we've been able to work with our vendors and work with our sourcing team to provide. And what's really important in the margin equation is newness. And so we are bringing in more newness, as I just mentioned, and we expect throughout the year that the margin improvement will be more back half weighted as part of our cost savings program because the newness coming in and the incremental newness will turn and we'll see more of that happen throughout the year largely related to the back half.

Speaker 2

So sourcing is a big opportunity. I would also say our disciplined inventory management, our teams have done an amazing job of being nimble and synchronizing our inventory position to demand and trends. And so we are not we are in a position where we are not over inventory, particularly in clearance or sell down. And so we're able to manage a leaner mark earlier before product goes to clearance. So I would say inventory management is another key component.

Speaker 2

And then while we face the promotional discounting that we're seeing in the industry, we've also been able to target pricing within specific areas within our product base. So we're not it's not a broad based discounting or promotional posture that we have. So those are the levers that we're using to continue to drive gross margin as an opportunity for us in Q1 as well as fiscal 2025.

Speaker 4

And then, Joni, you had mentioned you expect margin improvement to be more 2H weighted. Is that just operating margin? Are you saying that gross margins could also improve year over year as you move into the backlog?

Speaker 2

Gross margin. Yes, gross margin will improve. The sourcing savings as we roll or turn our inventory, last year was 1.4x and sourcing newness comes in and the sell through largely will occur more back half on the new items.

Speaker 4

Got it. And then just to stick with the gross margin, I think your total revenue plan is like down 2% to 7%. Can you tell us at just higher level, like what is your services expectation? I assume you expect to outgrow that number, but is there a number you could share with us for the year that you're planning?

Speaker 2

Not specifically on services, but what I would tell you is we continue to implement new tools and opportunities within the services business. We mentioned a couple on the call that are wrap around opportunities. So POS prompts for our jewelry consultants are rolled out to all of our banners as well as post repair ESA, which is something that we've been ramping up and we see traction. Our stores team has done a great job in training and really understanding the benefit to our customer for those services as a one stop for all of their jewelry needs. So we continue to evolve that.

Speaker 2

Our attachment rates, as another note on that to consider, Ike is attachment rates to bridal are much higher than fashion. They're almost double. And as with the return to engagements and as we see that scale up and progress throughout the year, we would expect the services business to respond similarly as well. So a lot of great opportunity in services for us.

Speaker 4

Okay. So it sounds like services will outperform, but we're not you're not going to quantify the exact amount that you're planning it out.

Speaker 2

No. We won't quantify the exact, but we expect it to continue to grow. And it did outperform merchandise by 1,000 bps in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 1

Great point. Understood.

Speaker 4

And sorry, last question. Just on the tax rate comment, Joan, that you went through, you talked about the step up by 3 or 4 points. Is that incorporated in this new 2019 to 2020 that you have this year? Or should be are you saying that we should be expecting like 2023 to 24 going forward in the out years?

Speaker 2

So thank you for the clarification, Ike. The impact for the new tax legislation for Bermuda will affect FY 'twenty cents not FY 'twenty five. There was no impact in FY 2025. We recorded the deferred tax benefit at the end of the year and it does affect it will affect tax rate in a year from now. And associated with that is a cash tax benefit that will occur ratably over the next 10 years.

Speaker 4

Got it. So 2023, 2024 is the go forward based on what you said earlier, right?

Speaker 2

FY26. Correct. It starts at 23, 24. Yes.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thank you so much. Bye bye.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mauricio Serna from UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess just wanted to get a sense of what are you thinking about the total jewelry industry growth considering also like fashion and the non engagement part of bridal? How are you thinking about the industry growth for the year? And then just also maybe you could provide a little bit more details on the digital part of the business.

Speaker 5

Can you elaborate a little bit more on like what are the issues happening in there? What just if I recall, I think you were already expecting some benefits in Q4 of integration from both banners. And then lastly, just on the commentary based on the commentary that you provided for Valentine's and how things have trended since then, like is there a way to get a sense of like what are the quarter to date comps? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Mauricio. So I'll start on your questions and then Joan can chime in on that. So in terms of what we're expecting from the category in this year ahead, we're expecting the jewelry category to be down mid single digits. We'd expect to be able to grow share in that environment, particularly in bridal. We're seeing consumers continue to be value oriented.

Speaker 2

That's how they were at Q4 and Valentine's Day, a late shopper, highly focused on value. Our strategy that worked in Q4 was first to leverage our industry leading banner portfolio to appeal to customers across all price points. 2nd, to bring more newness and innovation in a tougher economy, customers still get excited by things they haven't seen before by innovative new items. And we value engineer that newness to offer an especially good value without the level of heavy discounting that we saw in the category. And finally, we believe we are positioned to win as engagements return because of our tenured store teams, our well known brands, trust is a more important factor in the engagement ring purchase and we're using proprietary data.

Speaker 2

I mentioned in my remarks that we our customer data platform today includes 17,000,000 people who are in dating relationships. We would expect only 2,500,000 or so of those to get engaged in the next year. So we have more than enough people in our proprietary database to really be talking to those pre engagement customers in advance. So that's kind of what we see coming in the market and why we think we're positioned to perform better than the industry in this environment. Your second question was about digital banners.

Speaker 2

And so the first thing I want to start with is just emphasizing that the issues that we saw were not to do with our core e commerce business. It was Blue Nile and James Allen as a result of the integration. Our core e com business is performing well and the investments that we've put in place have led us to hit an all time high in net promoter score in digital. What we saw with James Allen and Blue Nile were some operational issues related to the replatforming of the business. Frankly, we thought we had it all wired and that the pipes were connected well, but they weren't.

Speaker 2

And we had unfortunately some problems integrating Blue Nile with its production partners, which caused us to see a dip in conversion with much longer fulfillment times. So we've got the team very focused on getting this fixed. We believe that we are on a very good path to get these issues resolved. We expect the fixes in place later during the year, although our guidance does not reflect significant improvement in the digital banners. In fact, our fiscal year guidance assumes a 2 point comp drag in total coming from the digital banners.

Speaker 2

Then Mauricio, with respect to your comp question, as we mentioned, early V Day or Valentine's Day was down mid teens. Post Valentine's Day, we're seeing a down mid to high single digit comp. And if it helps to put the year in context for you, our first half of FY twenty twenty five same store sales range should be down high single to mid single digits followed by a second half of down slightly to low single digit growth. That's how to put the year in context.

Speaker 5

Very helpful. And very lastly, a follow-up on the cost savings initiative. Any way you can break it down like into the 3 big buckets that you mentioned on the sourcing, the AI and other like the non customer facing expenses? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So as we think about the $350,000,000 we expect or anticipate $150,000,000 to $180,000,000 this year in cost savings. It's through sourcing savings is roughly half of that is I would say for this year and would look for that to continue into the out years with that sort of balance. And then the AI and customer facing facing, non customer facing expenses would be the other half of that savings. And again, as I mentioned, the sourcing savings would be more back half weighted.

Speaker 5

Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Sanderson from Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. I wanted to talk a little bit more about the 300 renovations you're planning this year. That's I think about 10% of your store fleet. Can you outline the benefits you would expect this year or if this is a later year benefit? And any feedback on what you think the improvement in store sales volumes would be from those remodels?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Jim. We're excited about this program. We've been able to test within our K stores, which I mentioned were largely were roughly 200 stores and consistent with hometown strategy for Kaye. The renovations have delivered a mid single digit lift for us And we call them renovation lights, which means from a capital perspective, it's very efficient.

Speaker 2

And what they include are in new carpet, LED lighting, really supporting the sustainability and environment strategies that we have in goals. We'll take care of expanding services, which again, as we talked with Ike, is a significant investment for us overall and drive top line growth. And then we'll affect the cases, the lighting in cases and really upgrade the presence of the shopping environment for our jewelry consultants as well as our customers. And then we'll include digital displays as well as basic loss prevention updates. So as you can see, it's capital light, but it's delivering top line growth for us.

Speaker 2

There's a store in Texas that we've done this work on and we're really pleased with the response from our stores team as well as the customer. I would also note the Jared stores, I mentioned this that we're up tiering Jared, the assortment. We've tested different layouts and different design within the Jared banner. We're investing in 50 stores and we're very excited about that. That has an overall lift that's in excess of 10% on the top line.

Speaker 2

The IRR on it is 18% to 22%. And we feel that it better supports the tearing up of the assortment and we're seeing a very nice sell through on newness in that assortment too. And it's a holistic upgrade for us because we're also increasing inventory towards the new assortment in the Jared banners. We're also testing different formats and other banners such as banter, which Jenna mentioned performed very well at Holiday and we're looking to improve services and increase the services level of business in the banter portfolio. And we believe that those investments will the tests will read, will play out and will put investments against a strong test rate.

Speaker 6

Thank you for that. Is are the benefits primarily to be to take place next year? So this isn't really a fiscal 2025 story or is part of that baked into your expectations?

Speaker 2

It's a back half story. We have to invest upfront here. It'll take us probably through to the end of Q3 to address all the stores that we have targeted. So yes, definitely later in the year.

Speaker 6

Okay. And you mentioned a comment about some fixed cost slightly higher on a year over year basis. I'm just wondering what is your outlook on labor inflation and not only just inflation but perhaps investment in labor as you grow going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes. We feel very strongly about investing in training, especially within our store teams. We have to we've provided for that in our guidance and in our investments for FY 2025. So very cognizant of that and we believe it's very important to do that outside the store, take our jewelry consultants and give them a right training environment that enables them to really gain full benefit and come back and train the balance of stores and so forth. So very important investment for us.

Speaker 2

Inflation itself is included within our guidance for FY 2025. We've done through our cost savings program. We have made every effort to offset inflation as we give our guidance throughout the for the year. And we're very keen on making sure that we reach out indirect procurement, non customer facing costs that we protect marketing and our people and really drive out the costs that the customer doesn't see nor do they care about.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay. I have one last question just talking more broadly about the shift to growth in the engagement category. Is there anything in your data set that helps us understand the opportunity for average transaction value to increase or if the engagement consumer is perhaps more value oriented or frugal, hoping to invest in other parts of the wedding ceremony or engagement process? Just any feedback there based on what you're looking at?

Speaker 2

So what we know about engagement customers is that they really think about this purchase as a long term purchase. It's often the most expensive purchase that a couple has ever made together and they really wanted to represent more than just a piece of jewelry. It's representing their declaration of love to each other for a lifetime. So they tend to think in terms of a budget, which tends to be based on income. And so what they can get for that budget is generally what we see them asking for.

Speaker 2

We have at this point in time, I would say, a group of customers who come in definitely wanting to spend that budget on a natural diamond because they believe that it has more potential to retain its value over time. We see some customers coming in wanting a lab created because they have realized that they can get a bigger carat size for their same budget. And then we have some customers, the biggest percentage who come in looking for the advice of our expert jewelry consultants to really help them make that choice. But it tends to be, a more fixed budget kind of a situation as opposed to a value orientation, which is what we do see on fashion. So fashion tends to fluctuate a bit more with the macroeconomic environment.

Speaker 6

Thank you for that feedback. You mentioned lab grown diamonds. Is your assortment do you expect to expand that assortment in bridal for lab grown for the back half of the year?

Speaker 2

We've been very intent on following the customer and being customer inspired with our inventory. What I could tell you is that lab created still remains, in the teens percentage of jewelry sales overall. For us, it tends to be a little bit lower than the category, especially given that we're skewing more to bridal and a little bit less to low price fashion. So we offer it and it's been a good opportunity for some more value oriented customers to get more for their limited budget. But I think we'll continue to be very consumer inspired on that front and make sure that we have a great offering of any kind of engagement ring or fashion product that customers are looking for across our banner portfolio.

Speaker 6

Very good. Thank you very much. I'll pass it along.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question

Speaker 7

services business, what impact on the merch margin is that having? How are you planning the services business this year compared to last year? And anything of how you're planning in the Q1 in light of the Q1 guidance? And then when you think about the store openings that you're doing, I think 20 to 30 malls, out of malls, where are they going to be? And then you had closed some stores overseas.

Speaker 7

Is there a further store closing program that you anticipate there? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So thanks Dana. Good morning. Services is a growth opportunity for us. We mentioned that it outperformed merchandise margin or merchandise sales by 1,000 basis points and it's really it carries a 20 point higher margin for us compared to merchandise margin. So it's definitely a gross margin expander as well as a top line growth driver for us.

Speaker 2

So we expect it to continue to out pace merchandise sales within Q1 as well as for fiscal 2025 for the full year. And our new the new programs that are the wraparound that I mentioned earlier post repair, you say POS prompts and so forth are very engaging for the jewelry consultant to have an opportunity to basically ask the customer the question, would you like to hear about the benefits of these packages for warranties as well as repairs. So believe that that's a continued driver. With respect to stores, the 20 to 30 store openings that we're looking forward to are largely off mall. We believe that when we look at the performance that we've seen over the past year, Dana, off mall has outperformed our mall stores as well as outlet has outperformed our mall stores.

Speaker 2

So we're continuing to drive on the economics of an off mall opportunities for us. So we'll continue on that. We also for the UK, we've closed we sold the Ernest Jones locations that we mentioned and we also will be closing more of the Ernest Jones stores focusing on jewelry, larger than the H. Samuel. That's also H.

Speaker 2

Samuel banner. It's also a great story on real estate and refits, renovations for the H. Samuel. We're seeing the new store format there be very positive for the performance of the UK International segment. So we'll continue to keep our eye on that and invest somewhat in the H.

Speaker 2

C. Amulet, but continue to close on the Ernest Jones locations.

Speaker 7

Thank

Speaker 2

you. Thank you.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q and A portion of today's call. I would like to turn it back to Jenna Drossos, Chief Executive Officer, for closing comments.

Speaker 2

In closing, I'd like to take a moment to thank Todd Stitzer for his service as Chair to Signet's Board of Directors. Todd will complete his 12 year term in June and will roll off our Board in accordance with Signet's Board tenure requirements. I know I speak for the entire board when I say we are so grateful for Todd's leadership and vision. We have transformed Signet into a data driven, digitally focused and consumer inspired company and Todd's trusted guidance, unwavering support and smart counsel have been an invaluable asset. Helen McCleskey will take over as Chair in the coming months.

Speaker 2

As part of the Board, Helen has already added great value to Signet and we look forward to continuing to tap into her deep background in retail and understanding of the consumer. Thank you everyone for joining. We look forward to speaking to you all again in June.

Operator

Thank you, presenters. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Signet Jewelers Q4 2024
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