YPF Sociedad Anónima Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 7, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Marietta Chun, YPF IR Manager. Thank you for joining us today in our full year and 4th quarter 23 earnings presentation and strategic outlook. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Please take into consideration that our remarks today and answer to your questions may include forward looking statements, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks.

Operator

Also note the exchange rate used in calculations to reach our main financial figures in U. S. Dollars. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non IFRS measures, such as adjusted EBITDA. I will now turn to Horacio to a brief introduction.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Margarita, and good morning to all of you. Welcome to this renewed earnings webcast presentation from YPF Corporate Building in Buenos Aires. I am Horacio Marin, the new CEO and Chairman of the Board of YPF. Before moving to the purpose of this video call, I would like to express how proud and honored I am to assume the responsibility to lead the largest integrated energy company in Argentina, leading more than 20,000 employees and more than 40,000 people that indirectly contribute with us. I have the firm commitment to take YPF to the next level by growing consistently in a profitable way and become of energy in the long term, always maintaining a prudent financial strategy while keeping the safety and sustainability of our operation at the forefront of our day to day decision.

Speaker 1

Today, I will conduct this presentation with our new CFO, Federico Varataveina, who will go through the main highlights and financial results for the full year and Q4 2023. Also, our strategy by pressing Maximiliano Weston will detail the more relevant operational performance figures of the year. After this, I will share our new strategy outlook for the next year. At the end of the presentation, we will open up for questions. I will now turn to Federico to begin with the main highlights and financial results.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Horacio, and good morning to all of you. Before we begin our presentation, I would like to express my pleasure and pride to be part of the new management team of the company. Now let me start by saying that 2023 was a very challenging year, driven by a complex local macroeconomic environment with high inflation, strong volatility and a downward trend in international prices. In this context, the company was able to grow total production for the 2nd consecutive year, deploying its annual CapEx plan while preserving a healthy financial position. Adjusted EBITDA totaled around $4,000,000,000 in 2023, decreasing 18% annually.

Speaker 2

This lower outcome was a result of 3 main factors: 1st, the lower domestic fuel prices in dollar terms 2nd, a moderate reduction in prices of other refined products and finally, higher OpEx, particularly driven by an increasing inflationary context. This was partially offset by the expansion in total production and processing levels. Now moving on to the 4th quarter, there was an important turning point for some key variables by the end of the period. Adjusted EBITDA for the Q4 represented the highest mark of the year, reaching almost $1,100,000,000 17% above the previous quarter. This was a direct result of an almost 8% expansion in oil productions.

Speaker 2

Since the end of the year, the new pricing strategy of the company increased local fuel prices up 6% sequentially in dollar terms, all passing the strong devaluations recorded on average during the period. On the other hand, costs contracted by about 8% sequentially, mostly driven by the discrete devaluation that took place in mid December. Lastly, the positive effects of the new export increase program, which allowed to convert export and international financing at a special FX rate, almost compensated the seasonal reduction in our natural gas sales. Our bottom line in 2023 came at a loss of near $1,300,000,000 almost $1,900,000,000 in the 4th quarter. This negative net income during the quarter was particularly affected by a noncash impairment charge of $1,800,000,000 pretax.

Speaker 2

This impairment came on the back of the new disposal strategy of conventional material fields approved by our Board last week. The disposal decision requires a future reclassification to held for sale assets and triggered an impairment loss indicator under IFRS. Accordingly, the company performed a comprehensive review of the assets and recognized dis impairment of PP and E as of December 31. In terms of our operational performance, total hydrocarbon production averaged 514,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023, rising 2% versus 2022, mainly driven by a sound performance in our shale operations that Max will explain later. On the financial side and as expected by the company, during Q4, free cash flow was slightly negative at $60,000,000 accumulating a negative free cash flow of $740,000,000 in 2023.

Speaker 2

The deployment of our investment plan and interest payments were not fully compensated by the cash flow from operations, taking our net debt to almost $6,800,000,000 while maintaining the net leverage ratio within the prudent levels of 1.7x, fully aligned with the target of the year. Now let's start with the evolution of the fuels pricing in the local market. Until the Q3 of 2023, local fuel prices couldn't absorb the depreciation of the currency. However, since November, the company has been adjusting fuel prices consistently, narrowing the discount to the international parities, down from 28% in Q3 to 8% now. Also, local crude price has a significant recovery during 2024, representing a discount versus export parity slightly above 10% in February.

Speaker 2

Going forward, although it is hard to predict, mostly due to the volatility in international prices, the company still needs to preserve prices, aiming at narrowing the gap and compensating for the evolution of the Argentine peso. We will pursue this objective, considering the delicate equilibrium that needs to be maintained and the impact on the demand ability to afford fuel cost within the local macroeconomic context. Switching to the financial front. Annual cash flows from operations totaled $5,900,000,000 4% higher than the previous year. Despite the annual contraction in adjusted EBITDA, higher cash flow from operation was of higher dividends collections from our subsidiaries as well as other positive working capital variations.

Speaker 2

However, given the fully deployment of our CapEx plan together with our regular interest payments, annual free cash flow came at a negative $740,000,000 Nevertheless, during Q4, the sequential expansion of our EBITDA capital expenditures and interest. Thus, we ended the quarter with a slightly negative free cash flow of $60,000,000 a marginal sequential increase of our net debt to almost $6,800,000,000 and a stable net leverage ratio of 1.7 times. In terms of financing, during Q4, we continued deploying our financial program by securing both local and cross border trade related loans obtained from relationship banks and by tapping the local capital markets at very attractive financing cost. In total, during the year, we were able to raise about $2,600,000,000 50% from local capital markets, 35% from trade finance loans and the remaining 15% from the cross border AB loan led by CAF. This represented net new funding of almost $1,300,000,000 after deducting debt the international capital market, leading the reopening for Argentine Corps by using an export secured bond for a nominal value of $800,000,000 The new bond has 7 year final maturity, a fixed rate of 9.5% and a yield of 9.75%.

Speaker 2

Simultaneously, we launched a cash tender offer for the 2024 notes, which result in prepayments of near 40% of the outstanding notes. On the liquidity front, our cash and short term investments as of December 31 remained almost unchanged on a sequential basis at almost $1,400,000,000 despite the large devaluation that took place in mid December. Thanks to the active assets management strategy to minimize FX exposure. Regarding our short term financial obligations, our total consolidated financial maturities for 2024 amounted around $1,300,000,000 as of December of last year. However, the recent bond issued combined with the 2024 bonds tender reduced considerably our short term financing needs, leading to a very manageable maturities profile for the rest of the year.

Speaker 2

I now turn to Max Weston, who will continue the presentation with more details on our operating results.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Federico, and good morning to everyone. Let me start by saying that the safety of our workers is our top priority in the development of the activities of the company. That is why we deeply regret one accident with fatal consequences that one of our upstream contractor workers suffered during last February, which commits us to increase our efforts to ensure operations at the minimum possible extent risk. Now regarding 2023 evolution, we recorded another year of substantial progress in our safety indicators, achieving an accident frequency rate per million hours worth of 0.23 with 0 fatalities in our operations. These results were possible thanks to several initiatives focused on preventing actions, training, risk control activities and audits of critical processes and facilities.

Speaker 3

Further focusing on sustainability and in line with our strong commitment to contribute to the reductions of carbon footprint, during 2023, we continued working hard to make progress on the reduction of our GHG emissions. In that sense, given the meaningfully lower emissions intensity of our growing shale operations and several initiatives deployed so far in 2023, we reach a further decrease in our upstream and commercial carbon intensity levels, Scope 1 and 2, averaging 13 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per BOE, 30% below 2022 and surpassing the 15 kilogram targeted announced at the beginning of the year. Lastly, let me highlight that in terms of energy transition, we continued expanding our renewal energy portfolio through our subsidiary, YPF Luz, the 2nd largest renewable power generator in the country, with an installed capacity of 3.2 gigawatts. In this sense, during 2023, the company put in operations a new 100 megawatt solar Farm project in the province of San Juan and continued making progress on the construction of the new 155 Megawatt wind farm to be installed in the province of Cordova, which is expected to get the COD by the end of 2024. Focusing on our upstream business during 2023, our total hydrocarbon production continued to the upward trend initiated in 2022 by growing 2% versus 2022 and expanding 2% sequentially in the Q4.

Speaker 3

Crude oil production recorded a remarkable annual increase of more than 7%, reaching in the Q4 a production of 255,000 barrels per day, 8% above the 3rd quarter and 3rd percent higher than the previous year, fully complying the ambitious targets for the year. It is also worth noting that during the last quarter, we achieved the highest level of oil production of the company in the last 15 years. Beyond crude, natural gas production averaged 36,000,000 cubic meters per day in 2023, declining around 3% versus the previous year, primarily due to lower demand in the second half of the year, which impacted particularly in the Q4, where natural gas production contracted 4% interannually. On the other hand, annual NGL production increased by 3% over a year. Now let me walk you through the performance of our shale operations, the main pillar of our strategy.

Speaker 3

Firstly, it is important to point out that in the Q4, shale production represented 48% of our total hydrocarbon production compared to only 18% in 2019, representing a substantial transformation of our production matrix over the last 5 years. In 2023, total shale production recorded a new annual expansion of more than 16%, versus 2022, almost in line with the target for the year, averaging 97,000 barrels per day. In the Q4, shale oil production reached a new historical record of 109,000 barrels per day, growing 19% sequentially and 28% inter annually. In addition, during the last quarter of the year, we continued exporting roughly 20,000 barrels per day of Medanito crude oil to Chile through the Trans Andean pipeline and the new Vaca Muerta Norte pipeline. The later operational since 2023, representing 7% of total crude oil production and 12% of our Medanito oil production in the Q4.

Speaker 3

Zooming into the evolution of hydrocarbon reserves, total proved reserves contracted by 10% in 2023. The decline was mainly driven by a significant decrease of 26% in our conventional reserves, while shale reserves remained almost flat during the year, now representing 71% of our total reserves, up from 64% in 2022. The addition of proved reserves totaled 128,000,000 BOE backed on the progressive development and expansion of our unconventional operations, particularly in Loma La Lata Norte and La Calera blocks. Moreover, we recorded an enhanced hydrocarbon recovery of 17,000,000 BOE. However, the downward revision of over 72,000,000 BOE due to higher cost pressure and lower prices, combined with the total hydrocarbon production, resulted in a total proved reserve decline.

Speaker 3

It is worth noting that proven development reserves recorded an expansion of 2% year over year, mainly due to the effect of development activities, new extensions and discoveries previously mentioned exceeding the annual production. On the other hand, proved undeveloped reserves decreased by 21%, driven by the reclassification to develop reserves, lower hydrocarbon prices and other revisions. Considering the total hydrocarbon production of 2023, reserve replacement ratio stood at 0.4x for YPF and 1.0x for shale developments. Switching to our downstream operations, our processing levels increased sequentially 5% in the 4th quarter, averaging 290,000 barrels per day after the completion of the program maintenance stoppages at 2023, we managed to achieve a record high production of gasoline and mill distillates and maximize our refinery conversion levels, also driven by higher oil production, getting back to 90% of refinery utilization factor. Lastly, our domestic sales of gasoline and diesel remained strong in the 4th quarter, increasing by 4% sequentially, while reaching in 2023 the highest level ever dispatched in every year.

Speaker 3

To meet this high record demand besides the outstanding performance at our refineries, we increased fuel imports by 5% on an annual basis and slightly reduced our inventory levels, particularly in diesel. I will now switch back to Horacio to go through the updated strategic outlook for the next years.

Speaker 1

Let me now walk you through our new strategic outlook. First of all, let me highlight that we are maintaining our long term strategy pillars presented a year ago, committed to address the unique opportunities that we have ahead of us. Our strategic pillar remains to continue our focus on the monetization of our shale oil opportunities, taking advantage of the proven quality of the Vaca Muerta resources and the high quality achieved over the last 10 years. Secondly, as we move forward with the monetization of our conventional oil resources, we will set the base for the next phase in Vaca Muerta, the monetization of natural gas. Our goal is to become a global LNG player through the massive monetization of our shale gas resources by deploying a large scale LNG facility in Argentina.

Speaker 1

Finally, as we take a comprehensive look at the the global energy markets and increasing relevance of the energy transition by 2,030, we envision further opportunities expanding the company portfolio of energy solution towards clean energies. We are convinced that this renewed strategy with strong focus and short term results has a tremendous opportunity to generate value for all our stakeholders. Before moving on the details of the new strategic plan, let me start by describing our mid term vision for the company in 2,030. It's well known that Baca Muerta has a tremendous potential given the level of recoverable resources that over this year has transformed from a dream into reality. Based on DUC's strength, we expect to turn into a world class shale player, beating our record in oil and gas production, while at the same time becoming a relevant sport of crude oil and landing ship by 2,030.

Speaker 1

If we manage to do this, we will transform into structural positive free cash flow generator with a strong financial profile, allowing us to continue investing in the long term opportunities in the With that vision in mind, we have recently launched the YPF 4x4 program, a 4 pillar plan to deliver our vision. 4x4 represents our ambition to deliver outstanding performance to our stakeholders, multiplying the value of the company in the next 4 years. Firstly, in the short term, we aim to focus on our most profitable business, Vaca Muerta, which is around twice as profitable as our next investment alternative. Secondly, we expect to actively manage our portfolio with a strict capital allocation discipline. In that sense, we are targeting a significant reduction of our exposure to conventional mature fields during this year.

Speaker 1

In the 3rd place, in order to increase YPF resiliency, we will focus on maximizing upstream and downstream operating efficiency aiming to at becoming a world class Shell player with still improving our downstream margin. Finally, our 4 strategic pillar relies on setting the base of our next phase, the monetization of natural gas. To that end, we are planning the construction of an ambitious large scale LNG project, the unique in Argentina, with 1 strategic partner and other Argentine's gas players. Now I will go in more detail in each pillar in a few minutes. Our plan is already ongoing.

Speaker 1

We feel very comfortable with the initial steps achieved so far. First of all, since the end of last year, we have been deploying an active oil price strategy, reducing the gap versus international parties. Secondly, in January of this year, we returned to international capital markets. Finally, last week, our Board of Directors approved a new plan for some of our mature conventional field, thus initiating our active portfolio management. At the end of the presentation, I will share with you more details about this program.

Speaker 1

Let me now walk you through the 4 pillars of our strategic outlook. Deepening our first strategic pillar, given the tremendous potential in increasing unconventional activity achieved so far, we aim at accelerating as much as possible our share production growth. In that regard, we are planning very ambitious production goal for the next 2 years, targeting at expansion of 24% in 2024 and a further 35% next year, reaching over 160,000 barrels per day of shale production by 2025. In order to achieve these goals, we have already secured 3 additional drilling rigs, totaling 15 rigs operating by YPF in Vaca Muerta, 80% of which will be allocated to oil wells, aligned to our strategy of prioritizing all developments. At the same time, we are moving forward with development of new blocks to the north and south of our core half, moving from 1 half in 2023 to 3 halves in 2024.

Speaker 1

To unlock the tremendous opportunity of the massive development of Vaca Muerta, the midstream capacity of the Neuquen Basin must be debottleneck. To that end, we have already devised and implemented a detailed program based on 3 main The Trans Andean and Vaca Muerta North project consisted in putting existing infrastructure of the Trans Andean oil pipe back online and building a new pipe of around 150 kilometers from our oil core hub to Puerto Hernandez. The Trans Andean pipeline resumed activity in May 2023, after more than 15 years or been idle, and Vaca Muerta Nord pipeline became operational last November, offering an additional growth capacity of 110,000 barrels per day. The project is allowing us and other producers at the basin to direct the crude oil produced in the core operation of Vaca Muerta to the Andean pipeline through export to Chile and further north into our Lujan de Cucio refinery. The second project involves more than doubling the Odell valve and Nautic capacity.

Speaker 1

Current misting capacity is about 300,000 barrels per day after adding 75,000 barrels per day through the initial stage deployed between 20 22 2023. Going forward, the next stage should be adding around 45,000 barrels per day by the end of 2024 and remaining 200,000 barrels per day rest by mid-twenty 25, totaling an additional gross evacuation capacity of 315,000 barrels per day. Finally, the Vaca Muerta South project consists in the construction of a new pipe and export terminal connecting Vaca Muerta to the Atlantic. The project is planned to several stages. The first stage of the project will conduct Loma Campana to the entrance of the existing Odelberg network by the Q4 of this year.

Speaker 1

The second stage is expected to be up and running by the Q3 of 2026, will 1,000 barrels per day of equation capacity and the 3rd stage is effective by the end of 'twenty seven, adding an additional capacity of 180,000 barrels per day. So far, YPF has begun the design competition process for the new pipeline and export terminal and obtain the environmental permits for the 1st stage. Additional, the total capacity of this project could be expanded to more than 700,000 barrels per day by adding pumping station, what would mean that the resolution of all water next in Vaca Muerta. Our 2nd pillar, active portfolio management, includes increasing the share of shale production from around 50% to around 80% of our total production. Gold will allow us to reduce the average lifting cost by almost 50% by 2025 visavis2023.

Speaker 1

We will focus on investment with high returns and strict alignment with our core business. Therefore, we plan to exit from some of our mature conventional fields, but will release around $800,000,000 in CapEx to be reallocated primarily to shale oil activity. This will result in higher profitability. Our shale oil projects are 2 times more profitable than conventional projects and the repayment periods per well are lower than those related to conventional fields. Besides the exit strategy for mature fields, we represent a substantial decrease on our lifting cost.

Speaker 1

Following the same capital allocation discipline, we are reviewing our investment in affiliate companies to ensure they are strategically fit and profitably. Therefore, we aim to focus our efforts on companies aligned with our ambition of bio generation. The 3rd strategy pillar looks forward for maximizing aftering and down trim efficiencies. We will match our increased shale oil production with improved efficiency to maximize our operational performance in order to become a world class shale player. This will improve the returns of our investments.

Speaker 1

We have an excellent track record in fracking and drilling. We plan to continue to enhance our industrialization model and thus to increase our drilling and fracking speed even further. Therefore, we plan to base our industrialization efficiency on 3 pillars: automatization of operational decision making through real time data analytics, introduction of new technology solutions such as directional tools and single frac techniques, and externalization of operational processes to reduce non productive and execution times. As a result, we will see our drilling speed in shale oil accelerating in our core hub to more than 310 meters per day and our completion speed in shale oil increasing to over 2.30 stages per month, both by 2025. As part of our downstream efficiency program, we are targeting new efficiencies and productivity goals at our refineries.

Speaker 1

Therefore, we have ongoing initiatives in order to improve our margin per barrel, such as maximizing processing and production levels and reviewing our cost structure, increasing our labor productivity. By revamping our toppings, we will reach the highest processing levels from the shale oil of Vaca Muerta since 2015, increasing fuel production capacity by 1.2 1,000,000 cubic meter per year and reducing crude oil imports. Additionally, our multi year project aims at reducing the sulfur component of our local fuel production aligned with international standards. Also, we are optimizing all of our operational refinery. We have already review of our global process map and we are now reviewing each specific process with a continuous improvement mindset.

Speaker 1

Particularly, we are optimizing maintenance and planned stoppages. We will increase crude oil processing by more than 10% and we are also reducing logistics and energy costs, improving our margin per barrel by more than $3 For our commercial areas, we continue beating on the efforts that make us the customer's preference choice. We expect to maintain YPF leadership, maximizing value generation by offering an improved experience through digitalization and segmentation. Our 4 and last strategic pillar sets the foundation for the monetization of natural gas. It's well known that Vaca Muerta has world class gas reserve, far exceeding local demand.

Speaker 1

To capture this opportunity and look in our Shell potential, we plan to lead the unique Argentinian LNG project. As previously announced, the full project targets total processing capacity between 25 30 MTPA and should represent the key way to place Vaca Muerta shale gas in the global market, turning YPF and Argentina into a world class LNG exporter. The first stage of the project aims to bring to Argentina an existing float LNG facility with an initial capacity between 1 and 2 MTPA by 2027. The second stage consists in the contraction of 2 new floating LNG facilities, representing a capacity for around 8 to 9 mTPA by 2,030, which FID is effective by mid-twenty 25 and requires investment on around €200,000,000 on a gross basis. Finally, let me point out the importance of the once the project is completed, we estimate an addition of total export revenue of about $15,000,000,000 annually to Argentina balance of payments.

Speaker 1

With LNG capacity, bearing in mind that this will be the unique Argentinian LNG project, we are working nowadays in order to lead this project with our strategic partner and engaging the rest of the industry. Thus, we expect to position YPF as a global player, capitalizing on our Vaca Muerta's world class resources. Before ending our presentation, I would like to provide you with a quick glance of our 2024 outlook. In terms of production, considering that it's too early to define the timing of the exit program for our conventional mature field, we cannot provide an overall average annual production guidance. Nevertheless, in 'twenty four, we expect our let me share with you the key figures of the strategy.

Speaker 1

We plan to exit from around 50 conventional blocks, representing around 90,000 barrels of oil production per day and around 6,500,000 cubic meter of natural gas production per day. Based on 23 figures, that represent around 60% of the conventional oil production and around 40% of the conventional natural gas production. Moreover, these blocks accounted less than 1% of YPF 2023 total EBITDA and require a new investment of around $800,000,000 Switching to our CapEx 24, we are targeting to invest around $5,000,000,000 during the year. These investments will once again be concentrated in our shale developments, where we plan to deploy $3,000,000,000 Within the upstream investment, we shall invest 75 percentage in our oil developments. As a natural gas strategy, we will have further strength in the midterm.

Speaker 1

And within our unconventional CapEx plan, we'll be allocated around 30% on facilities. On the downstream segment, we will continue with a multiyear investment plan to revamp our La Plata and Lujan de Cusho refineries to comply the new fuel specification, the adaptation of our refineries to process lighter crudes and the 3 main midstream oil projects. Finally, in terms of EBITDA for 2024, we expect a significant increase back on the new local pricing strategy, cost efficiency and shale oil production growth. However, the EBITDA recovery will not be enough to compensate the deployment of our aggressive plan and regular interest and payment, resulting in a negative free cash flow this year. As we shall continue prioritizing finance and prudency in a challenging macro environment full of uncertainty, we commit to maintain a net leverage ratio below 2023 levers on a range of 1.5 and 1.7 times.

Speaker 1

Before ending our presentation and jumping into the Q and A, let me highlight the specific targets by 2027. On the upstream business, we expect to achieve a shale oil production of around 250,000 barrels per day by 2027. And we will do it by reshaping our portfolio, increasing from 50% to 80% our shale oil production based on the remarkable efficiency achieved so far that led to breakeven price below $40 per barrel in a constant currency, assuming a long term cost of capital. Therefore, we expect our business model and key strategic focus on the monetization of Vaca Muerta's oil to remain resilient among changing global dynamics. On the Downstream segment, we are targeting a challenging margin improvement of $3 per barrel by 2027.

Speaker 1

And moreover, we plan to close the gap between local and international prices while maintaining our market share in fuel sales at around 50% On the Gas and Power business, by 2027, we should be ending the fair phase of our global scale LNG plant preparing ourselves for next phase of YPF strategy, and at the same time, committing to reduce our carbon footprint by reaching a 25% of our energy metrics from renewable resources. Finally, let me remark that we are targeting this challenging goal, prioritizing a strict capital allocation discipline and an active portfolio management, focusing in profitable and strategic opportunities. We are extremely focused and proud about YPF future. I'm totally sure that we will achieve this ambition strategy. Show me Federico and Max, we are now open to take questions.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio, and thanks everyone for listening to our presentation. Now we may start with a Q and A session. Our first question comes from Luis Carvalho from UBS.

Speaker 4

Hello. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yeah.

Speaker 4

Thank you for the very interesting presentation that you just provided with lots of details. And pleasure to meet you, Horacio, Federico, Maximiliano and all the IR team. If I may state start to 2 questions here. The first one is maybe Horacio, if you can share a couple of thoughts on the relationship between the company and the controlling shareholder. That has been, I would say, one of the main topics of attention from investors in most of the Latin American companies.

Speaker 4

And of course, YPF is super embedded in this process. So we'd like to understand about the relationship between the company, the management and the controlling shareholder. The second one, I'm not going to be too specific, but you presented a very broad plan with lots of details. I would just like to know from your perspective, what are the main challenges that you face over the next 2 years? Will it be the price adjustments on the downstream, bottlenecks on the offshore on the onshore production.

Speaker 4

So just trying to understand where you see the main challenges within this plan. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you, Luis, for your question. First question, YPF, as you know, is a major oil gas company in Argentina and is the leader of the energy sector. Therefore, has an important role in the energy sector. And we work with all the governments, all the states and all the unions and all the industry.

Speaker 5

And so I think we are working very hard and very well with all the sectors so far. In the second question, you are saying what I am what are my thoughts. 1, there are several. And this program is, if you see, is like a is all tight. This year, we are focusing this venture of the mature fields and also to build the debottlenecking in Vaca Muerta, what is the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipe.

Speaker 5

And with this oil pipe, as I mentioned before, it will be the final bottlenecking of Vaca Muerta. So all the industry will be available to only invest and increase the production.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. Thank you, Horacio. I don't know, Luis, if we answer your question. Okay, so our next question, comes from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. Bruno, you can turn on your camera if you want and, you can turn on your microphone so that we can check.

Speaker 6

Hello, everyone. Thank you for the presentation. Yeah.

Operator

We can hear you now. Thank you for the opportunity. Mhmm.

Speaker 6

And very interesting to see the details of the new strategic plan, very exciting growth ahead, some changes with the divestments as well. I have two questions. 1, I wanted to explore a little bit the divestment effort. So if we think about, say, the next few years through 2027, is there a financial target you expect to raise from selling the upstream and these affiliated companies. So any type of financial magnitude you could share with us would be super interesting.

Speaker 6

I found good use that it's a lot of production you're willing to divest, but yet it's 1% of of EBITDA only. So are you seeing interest from third parties to look at those assets? And are those Argentine companies, what can they do better that would make the market attracted to the assets? And then the second question is about the LNG project. I understand this is very long term and the bulk of the CapEx is going to come in the outer years.

Speaker 6

But can you share with us your expected IRR levels for investing in this project visavis investing in your core shale hub? So I wanted to try to understand what the differential of returns are on LNG. Thank you very much.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you very much for the question. The first one is a little longer, but I can explain for the mature fields. We think that we are going to finish the process during this year. And from now on, we see a lot of interest in Argentina for different more small companies than YPF.

Speaker 5

And it will be a good process and there will be very transparency with the bank and we envision that this year we will finish the all the process. And that will be very important for YPF increase our profitable by dollar. The second question in LNG IRR, I cannot give you because this is I can tell you that it's very competitive in the worldwide scale. That is the only thing that and I apologize, but I cannot tell you exactly the fear numbers. The other thing I think is important for you to know that we call the Argentine LNG project because it will be done by all the Argentine industry.

Speaker 5

So we will get a good scale, economical scale in all the infrastructure and all the investment. So that's why we make this kind of project, a bigger project than White Pest can manage, but it will be for all the Argentine gas players. And so we improve the efficiency and the internal rate of return for everybody.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. Thank you so much, Horacio, and thank you, Bruno, for the question. Our next question comes from Walter Cervasio from Santander. Walter, you can if you want you can turn on your camera and your microphone so that we can hear you.

Speaker 5

We don't hear you. I don't know what happened.

Operator

Okay. So we may continue.

Speaker 7

Are we okay?

Operator

Yes. Yes. Now we have a question. No, sorry.

Speaker 7

No, sorry. Okay. Sorry. Well, thank you for the presentation, very comprehensive and thank you for taking my questions. Probably digging deeper on details, 2 things, one is related to the exiting the mature fields is, I probably missed the details, but in your comments, but this is partnering with new companies doesn't mean that YPF will get out totally from the fields, only that CapEx will be done by partners.

Speaker 7

Secondly, this plan entails returning blocks to the provinces because there were news in the media regarding complaints of governors saying that they wouldn't accept that companies or YPF specifically leaves the blocks such like that, and if that entails, for example, environmental liability costs or things that we should take into account. And this $800,000,000 capital release is for the next years, I mean it's $800,000,000 per year, I missed that, that is on one side, and the last part of my question on CapEx is downstream $900,000,000 in 2024. Is that that should be extended over the year? So this the last part of the revamp that you have been making since last year. That's it from my side.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you very much for your question, Walter. I will pass to Max because you make it as a big detail. The only thing I will answer you that this is not like farming or is going out of the areas or the fields, okay? It will be the different way.

Speaker 5

Also, there is something that you are asking that we are always discussing with the governance and the unions and we are in very, very good shape. The what you read in the newspaper is what you read in newspaper, but it's like there could be different ways to go out of the area. There could be selling some and also, I don't know the name in English, Jose. Reverting. Reverting.

Speaker 5

Reverting. It's not reverting because it's tampered to some province company. And the other that you say that we take into account everything in the selling. Okay? This our goal and the way to go out is a clean exit.

Speaker 5

So now for more detail, I pass to Max.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Horacio. Yes, definitely. We are still we are doing the pre work, and in that pre work, we're we're gonna hire a bank. We are in the process of finishing that up and we will know who we are going to be working with within the next 1 or 2 weeks. Our expectations are to go out to the market by the end of March.

Speaker 8

And during the Q3, we should have offers, we're going to test the market, we should have the offers. And like Horacio mentioned, we want to close these transactions within this year. So with that said, I think that which blocks we're gonna sell to the market or other players, which we're going to revert back to the provinces, it's confidential. But like Horacio commented, we're going to seek either a clean exit when we transfer to other players or we're going to negotiate with the province in order to comply to whatever outstanding commitment we have.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 8

Sorry, I don't know if there was another question. Yes, regarding downstream CapEx, I think that, yes, this year we're still finishing up. The big investments that we are doing in our 2 main refineries are to adapt those to the low sulfur content and this we're going to finish by the and gasolines by the end of this year and gas and diesel by the end by next year. And also adapting our refineries to the new reality, which is the crude of Vaca Muerta, it's growing, so we need to be prepared in order to be efficient in our refineries, we need to be prepared to refine lighter crude oil. So that's why the level of CapEx is still at those levels that you commented this year, but sometime down the road in the next it should go lower to the $500,000,000 per year.

Speaker 8

That's not including the midstream efforts, As Horacio commented a couple of minutes ago during the presentation, we are still in the process of debottlenecking Vaca Muerta and those bring those have an additional CapEx efforts and particularly in Vaca Muerta Sur system.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio, and thank you, Max, and thank you, Walter, for the question. Please keep in mind that if we have some trouble with your microphone, the operator will help you. Meanwhile, we will move on to the next question and come back to your question. So don't worry about it. And our next question comes from Daniel Guardiola from BTG Pactual.

Operator

Daniel, you may turn on your microphone and if you want your camera.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Margarita. And great to meet you, Raziov, Ricardo, Marcidiano. Okay, great. I have a couple of questions. And one is regarding the very comprehensive strategic plan that you just announced and I wanted to know if within that plan if you are including inorganic growth in bulk on world.

Speaker 9

And being more specific, I would like to know if you're taking a look at the assets that Exxon is currently disposing in Vaca Muerta. So that will be my first question. My second question is related to the debottlenecking projects that you mentioned, Horacio, many projects, you know, to evacuate oil from Vaca Muerta to the Atlantic shore and to eventually, you know, further increase the exports of oil And I wanted to know what are the main risks that you think you're going to face when trying to deploy all this new infrastructure? And connected to this, you did mention the project Vaca Muerta Sur, but I learned this week that Odelval is announcing the Triple Car project and I wanted to know if those two projects are complementary, if they are competing with each other or if both are going to happen? And just a third one if I may, Quiz, can you share with us what is the expected trajectory of your EBITDA generation, total EBITDA generation for the next 3, 4 years?

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you, Daniel, for your 3 questions, not 2 questions. Okay. The the first question I sorry. I'm looking for for your your video, and I was not looking at the view that you see me, okay?

Speaker 5

So they are cheating me here. Okay. The first question. We are here, all the management, the new not the new and all the management that we are here, our goal is to maximize the value of all the shareholders. Therefore, we are growing in Vaca Muerta organic or inorganic.

Speaker 5

If the inorganic has more internal rate of return than the organic, we are going to follow that to improve the profitability of our shareholders. That is the first question. The second question was about the bottleneck. And you see all the Valkyrie Picker and Vaca Mortazur. The Vaca Mortazur is the one that we are going to follow and there are all the industries that follow us because it's a big pipeline, they can improve the capacity to 800,000 barrels per day.

Speaker 5

And also, it will be in a new port that we can sell the vessel of 2,000,000 barrels per day, so reducing the discount of the crude oil for export. So we are focusing on this project. The third question, and thank you for that question because if not, Federico was not okay so far. So I pass through Federico.

Speaker 10

Hi, Daniel. On EBITDA, let's say, we expect this year to be stronger than last year, considering the increases in prices and also considering that within this year, we should have an overall cost measured in dollar terms lower than last year. But as I said, we are expecting a stronger EBITDA for 2024.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio, and thank you, Federico. Our next question comes from Guido Visocero from Alaria. Guido, you may turn on your microphone and if you want, your camera as well. Okay. So, we may move on to the next person, and then come back to Guido.

Operator

Our next question comes, from Marina Mertens from Latin Securities. Marina, you may turn on your microphone and if you want your camera as well. Hi, thank you. Thank you. Thank you for the presentation and for you can hear me?

Speaker 5

Yes. Yes. Yes. Go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, Marim.

Operator

Okay. Okay. Perfect. Hi. I have two questions.

Operator

So one, the first one, given that conventional assets currently account for roughly half of YPF's crude oil production, and then they would eventually be exiting your portfolio. What changes in the supply strategy of the refineries after this divestment? And the second one is considering that the peso has strengthened over this Q1, Where do prices at the pump stand in terms of import parity? And what trends are you observing in costs?

Speaker 5

The first question, I think, is the production of the conventional that the mature field is 60% of the conventional, not 60% of all the production. And we will balance with the growth of Vaca Muerta. You will see in the future that we surpass in the future and not say when easily that production. The second question, remember, when you told the that there is a reduction in the churn rate, you are talking about the blue or the CCL. The other is not reducing.

Speaker 5

It's increasing 2% per month. So, you know that there is a change in that way. We are, as I mentioned in the presentation, we are close. We envision that during this year, we will reach the international markets. And with the I don't know, I think there is something more you're talking about the operating cost, if I know wrong.

Speaker 5

Okay? Yes?

Operator

Yes.

Speaker 5

Okay. In the operating cost, if you see average year by year, we are going to reduce, but if you see next year when we are going out of the mature field, the reduction of cost per barrel will be important, I would say.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. And thank you, Marina, for the question. Our next question comes from David Pardo, of Puente. David, you may turn on your microphone. And also, if you want, your camera.

Speaker 8

Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes, we can hear you.

Speaker 9

Perfect. Well, thank you for having me. Most of my questions have been answered, but I have one regarding maybe the previous one. It was prices against import parity. Are you expecting to are you targeting a gap to the import parity for 2024?

Speaker 9

That's the first question. And the second one is, what are the stages you need to follow in order for the LNG project to be a reality, let's say? Like, what are the different steps so that becomes a reality? That's all. Thank you.

Speaker 5

I didn't understand at the beginning, it was here something that I can't I couldn't hear very well between the price. There was one word I couldn't hear. I think he was asking if

Speaker 8

you are targeting a specific gap in the

Operator

4 parties. No, the

Speaker 5

specific Yeah. That will be our commercial policy, sorry, I cannot give you because if not, the other Ryerson and the other action, they will know what will be our target. We are focusing to rate during the year the export parity of crude because Argentina is the is a quarter of crude and our ceiling is the import product and our show will be to increase for all the shareholder the margin of the refinery. This is our show, sorry, show and that's why we are here. And in the LNG detail, I will pass to Max that he was involved a lot in the project.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Lasse. So the next steps in the LNG project are we are moving into the FEED stage. We need to develop the engineering. There are several packages of engineering. So during most of this year and most of yes, big part of next year, we're going to be working on the engineering.

Speaker 8

We are targeting to FID the first stage of our project by mid or second half of twenty twenty five. In parallel, there are many things that need to move forward. Of course, we're going to be open for additional partners. Also, we're going to be working on the project financing and parallel. Also in parallel, there's a lot of permitting and environmental pre works that needs to be performed.

Speaker 8

So I think that this all of this is what we're going to be working on the next year and a half, 18 months or so.

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. Max, Since we are we have been extending some minutes more, we are going to take the last question. So the last question will come from Leo Markondes from Bank of America. Leo, you may turn on your microphone and if you want your camera.

Speaker 11

Hey guys, thank you. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes, we can hear you.

Speaker 11

Okay. Okay, great. So my first question is regarding the lifting costs. You guys showed to us that you expect reduction in lifting costs at the conventional assets to $16 from $25 per barrel, right? So how do you guys expect to decrease these lifting costs via potential divestment and keep the best conventional assets?

Speaker 11

Or do you expect to sell your entire conventional asset base? My second question here is more of a follow-up here on the LNG question. Just to understand maybe a bit better, we understand that you guys still need a regulatory framework, so you guys can move on with the FID and so on, right? But do you guys have already started discussing this with the government or something like this? Or is it still a very initial phase so far?

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Okay. I will pass to Max. But first, I will tell you that the reduction in

Speaker 8

Good. Hello? Okay, I'll resume, I'll start over. Sorry for the technical inconvenience. But Horacio, you put it together very good.

Speaker 8

It's a combination. 1st, the impact of selling the mature fields. That doesn't mean that we are not going to have conventional projects, we're just going to keep the ones, I wouldn't say the better ones, but the most profitable and also it's not only about profitability, but also materiality, we're going to keep those projects and we're going to develop and those we think we can add value and also hard work and efficiencies in our unconventional field. So it's a combination of those two factors. Regarding the of course, yes, thank you for asking.

Speaker 8

I forgot when I was talking before about what are we going to be working on in parallel. Of course, the LNG project needs long term visibility and long term visibility means that sorry, means long term visibility and also a tax package just that it's competitive at a global level. The bill that the government is working on, I think it provides for both and definitely this we will need to have it in place to have FID, otherwise it's going to be very challenging to have a profitable project also not necessary to comment that project financing would be off the table, I think, if we cannot provide for this long term visibility. But there is like an agreement between all the governments and also the

Speaker 5

government national government to pass those laws to increase the investment in Argentina. And LNG, I can tell you that this is like the project of all the politicians, all the companies for Argentina. So we are positive that we will end up with a good result.

Operator

Thank you so much, Max and Horacio. We apologize everyone for the technical inconvenience, and thank you for joining today's presentation. Keep in mind that we have uploaded the full complete presentation at our website you may find there and thank you for joining today. Please, we, we can, we can close today's presentation. Thank you so much.

Operator

Have a good day.

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Earnings Conference Call
YPF Sociedad Anónima Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00
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