The Goldman Sachs Group Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
April 15, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of the Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward looking statements and non GAAP measures.

Operator

This audio cast is copyrighted material of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. And may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without consent. This call is being recorded today, April 15, 2024. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon and Chief Financial Officer, Dennis Coleman. Thank you.

Operator

Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us. We feel very good about our Q1 results, which reflect the strength of our world class and interconnected franchises and the earnings power of our firm. This performance was aided by the swift actions we took last year to narrow our strategic focus and play to our core strength. As you can see, we are delivering on our strategy and we are pleased with the returns we generated this quarter.

Speaker 1

As laid out in January, we have 3 strategic objectives: to harness 1 Goldman Sachs to serve our clients with excellence, to run world class differentiated and durable businesses, and to invest to operate at scale. Across the firm, we are effectively serving clients in what remains a complex operating environment. Looking back on the last year or so, one of the most common questions clients and investors have asked is around the timing of a broader reopening of the capital markets. I've said before that the historically depressed levels of activity wouldn't last forever. CEOs need to make strategic decisions for their firms, companies of all sizes need to raise capital and financial sponsors need to transact to generate returns for their investors.

Speaker 1

Where we stand today, it's clear that we're in the early stages of reopening of the capital markets, but the 1st few months of 2024 seen in a revigoration and new issue market access. For example, there were a number of large IPOs across geographies and the strong reception across transactions including the IPOs for Galderma, Reddit and Rank is the latest sign that investors' risk appetite is growing. In debt capital markets, tighter spreads have contributed to a constructive issuance environment in investment grade with volumes hitting a record for the 1st 3 months of the year. Additionally, refinancing was a major theme with robust high yield and institutional loan refinancing volume. Given a more accommodative issuance backdrop as well as the potential for increased acquisition financing alongside higher M and A activity, we expect solid levels of debt underwriting activity to continue this year.

Speaker 1

With our long standing leadership positions across the global capital markets, we have been at the forefront in helping our clients access the markets and our firm stands to benefit further as transaction volumes rise from the 10 year lows. It's important to note that alongside the reopening, we are seeing in Capital Markets, our intermediation businesses continue to be active in supporting our clients' needs. And we're growing financing revenues across FIC and Equities, which together were a record this quarter and rose 18% sequentially. All in our top tier intermediation franchise and more durable financing results are helping raise the floor in Global Banking and Markets. In Asset and Wealth Management, assets under supervision rose to a new record of $2,800,000,000,000 this quarter, which represented our 25th consecutive quarter of long term fee based net inflows.

Speaker 1

We have a diversified platform across public and private markets and are delivering solid performance across asset classes and we continue to invest resources in growing this business, particularly across Wealth Management, alternatives and solutions. In Wealth Management, we saw significant strength this quarter with total client assets ending at $1,500,000,000,000 In alternatives, we raised $14,000,000,000 in commitments despite a more difficult fundraising environment. And in solutions, we continued we saw continued demand for our outsourced CIO and S and A offerings. These are all areas in which we still see significant opportunities and we have a proven track record and demonstrated right to win. I also want to touch on a topic coming up in virtually every client conversation I have, artificial intelligence.

Speaker 1

While there is broad consensus about the transforming potential of AI, there is enormous appetite for perspectives on how certain aspects may play out, including the timeline for commercial impact, shape of potential regulation, impact on job and where value will accrue in the ecosystem. Today, we are proud to be at the forefront of advising clients on these topics and how to think about potential use cases in their operation. As we look longer term to the extent that this technology develops in line with expectations, there will be significant demand for AI related infrastructure and as a result financing, which will be a tailwind to our business. For our own operations, we have a leading team of engineers dedicated to exploring and applying machine learning and artificial intelligence applications. We are focused on enhancing productivity, particularly for our developers and increasing operating efficiency while maintaining a high bar for quality, security and controls.

Speaker 1

Like with any emerging technology, a thoughtful approach and keen eye on risk management will be crucial. Turning to the macro environment, we continue to be constructive on the health of the U. S. Economy. The Fed most recently telegraphed 3 rate cuts in 2024, but last week CPI print has lowered market expectations.

Speaker 1

This will continue to evolve and be highly data dependent. I'm also mindful that U. S. Equity markets are hovering near record levels at a time when we see when we continue to see headwinds, including concerns around inflation, the commercial real estate market and escalating geopolitical tensions around the world. This combination could slow growth.

Speaker 1

But that said, the U. S. Economy has proven to be resilient, supported by a number of factors including government spending as well as labor force growth driven by above trend levels of immigration. So while the environment is constructive and markets expect a soft landing, the trajectory is still uncertain. Nonetheless, I'm very confident about the state of our client franchise, the caliber of our people and our culture of collaboration and excellence.

Speaker 1

Every day as I interact with the people of Goldman Sachs around the world, I am consistently impressed by their talent, capabilities and how tirelessly they work to serve our clients. The quality of our people reinforces my conviction and long term opportunity set for Goldman Sachs and our ability to deliver for clients and shareholders. I will now turn it over to Dennis to cover our financial results for the quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you, David. Good morning. Let's start with our results on Page 1 of the presentation. In the Q1, we generated net revenues $14,200,000,000 and net earnings of $4,100,000,000 resulting in earnings per share of $11.58 an ROE of 14.8 percent and an RoTE of 15.9%. We provide details on the financial impact of selected items in the bottom table, the aggregate of which was immaterial this quarter.

Speaker 2

Let's turn to performance by segment starting on Page 3. Global Banking and Markets produced revenues of $9,700,000,000 in the Q1 and generated an 18% ROE on a fully allocated basis. Turning to Page 4. Advisory revenues of $1,000,000,000 were up versus a year ago amid higher completed transactions. We remain number 1 in the league tables for both announced and completed M and A.

Speaker 2

Equity underwriting revenues of $370,000,000 and debt underwriting revenues of $699,000,000 both rose significantly year over year amid an increase in industry volumes. Our backlog fell quarter on quarter as we successfully brought transactions to market, though client engagement and dialogues remain robust. FICC net revenues were $4,300,000,000 in the quarter, up from a strong performance last year as our global scaled franchise continued to serve clients amid a dynamic operating environment. Intermediation results were driven by better performance in mortgages, credit and currencies. Our long history of risk taking acumen enabled us to effectively make markets across a number of different geographies and asset classes.

Speaker 2

We produced record FICC financing revenues of $852,000,000 which rose sequentially primarily on better results in repo. We remain confident in our ability to continue to grow balances and drive growth in this business over time. Equities net revenues were $3,300,000,000 in the quarter. Equities intermediation revenues of $2,000,000,000 rose 14% year over year on better performance in derivatives. Equities financing revenues of $1,300,000,000 were modestly higher year over year as record average prime balances during the quarter were only partially offset by lower financing spreads.

Speaker 2

Moving to Asset and Wealth Management on Page 5. Revenues of $3,800,000,000 were 18% higher year over year. Record management and other fees were up 7% year over year to $2,500,000,000 As a reminder, we closed the sale of Personal Financial Management in November of last year, which contributed approximately $60,000,000 in fees in the year ago period. Incentive fees for the quarter were $88,000,000 up sequentially and year over year. Based on our bottoms up analysis, we expect to reach our target of $1,000,000,000 in annual incentive fees over the medium term, supported by an estimated $3,800,000,000 of unrecognized incentive fees as of year end.

Speaker 2

Private banking and lending revenues were $682,000,000 up substantially as revenues in the prior year period were negatively impacted by the partial sale of our Marcus loan portfolio. Equity Investments and Debt Investments revenues totaled $567,000,000 In Equity Investments, we saw improved performance year over year in our private portfolio that was largely offset by a markdown on a large public position. Now moving to Page 6. Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $2,800,000,000,000 We had $24,000,000,000 of long term net inflows largely in fixed income, representing our 25th consecutive quarter of long term fee based inflows. Turning to Page 7 on alternatives.

Speaker 2

Alternative assets under supervision totaled $296,000,000,000 at the end of the first quarter, driving $486,000,000 in management and other fees. Gross third party fundraising was $14,000,000,000 in the quarter. We continue to expect to raise between $40,000,000,000 $50,000,000,000 in alternatives across private equity and other strategies this year. More broadly, we are leveraging our long standing leadership position in private credit to capitalize on this secular growth opportunity and expect to grow our assets from roughly $130,000,000,000 to $300,000,000,000 over the next 5 years. On balance sheet alternative investments totaled approximately $44,000,000,000 In the Q1, we reduced our historical principal investment portfolio by $1,500,000,000 to $14,800,000,000 We expect reductions at roughly this pace for the rest of 2024 and expect to sell down the vast majority of our HPI portfolio by the end of 2026 consistent with our target.

Speaker 2

Next, Platform Solutions on Page 8. Revenues were 698,000,000 dollars Overall, segment profitability has improved with a pretax net loss of $117,000,000 for the quarter. In line with our target, we expect to drive this business to pre tax breakeven next year. On Page 9, firm wide net interest income was 1 $600,000,000 in the Q1, up sequentially on an increase in interest earning assets. Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $184,000,000,000 roughly in line with the 4th quarter, as an increase in other collateralized lending was partially offset by the sale of the remaining GreenSky portfolio.

Speaker 2

Our provision for credit losses was $318,000,000 which reflected net charge offs in our credit card lending portfolio. Within our wholesale portfolio, impairments trended modestly lower versus the levels in the last few quarters. Turning to Page 10. We continue to provide additional information detailing our CRE exposure. As you know, we moved early and actively risk managing our CRE exposure and currently have $26,000,000,000 in loans, dollars 4,000,000,000 in AWM alternative equity and debt securities and $2,000,000,000 in equity at risk related to CIEs.

Speaker 2

Turning to expenses on Page 11. Total quarterly operating expenses were $8,700,000,000 resulting in an efficiency ratio of 60.9%. Our compensation ratio net of provisions was 33%, reflecting improved operating performance for the firm. Non compensation expenses were $4,100,000,000 These costs declined year on year, even inclusive of a $78,000,000 FDIC special assessment charge and were down sharply versus the 4th quarter. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 21.1% and for the full year we expect the tax rate of approximately 22%.

Speaker 2

Now on to Slide 12. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 14.7% at the end of the Q1 under the standardized approach. In the quarter, we returned $2,400,000,000 to shareholders, including common stock repurchases of $1,500,000,000 and common stock dividends of 929,000,000 dollars We are currently running with 170 basis point buffer above our capital requirements. Given expectations for significant modifications to the Basel III proposed rule, we should have materially more flexibility on capital deployment. We also remain committed to paying our shareholders a sustainable and growing dividend.

Speaker 2

In conclusion, our Q1 results reflect the strength of our leading Global Banking and Markets franchise and our growing Asset and Wealth Management business. Simply put, we are delivering on the things we said we would do. We are focused on our strategic objectives and the execution focus areas for 2024 that we laid out in January, which will help our businesses produce mid teens returns through the cycle. We are confident in our ability to deliver for shareholders while continuing to support our clients and remain optimistic about the future opportunity set for Goldman Sachs. With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now take a moment to compile the Q and A roster. We'll go first to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

Speaker 1

Hi, thanks very much. It's a tough one. Chris, you are definitely executing on a

Speaker 3

lot of the objectives you laid out. And of course, the sustainability of banking is what it is. I noticed your lower pipeline. But the real question I have is the sustainability of the whole package, meaning you just had really strong revenue across the board on everything. Comp was up with that normally, but non comp is down, the provision is down and RWA didn't even though you're growing your financing.

Speaker 3

So I'm giving you a softball here and just saying, what of that package can continue to stick?

Speaker 1

I appreciate it, Glenn. And I think there are a bunch of things that continue to stick because one of the things that we've been focused on is building a more durable business and that there are a handful of things when you look across the whole package, we've made significant progress over the course of the last 5 years. Certainly, building our financing business in our markets business is something that's more durable and more sustainable. We still think there's lots of room to grow and look, the world is growing and when the world grows and our clients grow, they need us to finance them. We've got the capital to deploy as long as we can drive attractive returns with that client base and so we stay focused on that.

Speaker 1

We've doubled our management fees on our asset and wealth management business over the last 5 years and we continue to be very focused on fundraising, our ability to deliver on that. Those are more durable revenues. And there's operating leverage around that business that we still think we have yet to achieve. You've seen the margin improvement obviously in that business, but that business still has a higher capital density than we'd like that business to have. And we continue to focus on our historical principal investments and making progress there.

Speaker 1

Overall, I think we've meaningfully improved the client franchise and taken wallet share and we're just very, very focused on our relative participation in the market opportunity that exists with our big institutional clients. And we've said over the course of the last few years and there's been lots of questions on it, are those wallet shares sticky? I think the wallet shares are. What I can't tell you for sure is what the opportunity set is on every quarter to quarter. But when you look at the breadth, the leadership position, the global nature of these businesses and you look at the whole package, these are durable businesses that produce accretive returns where we're very well positioned.

Speaker 1

And we continue to focus on executing and enhancing that position.

Speaker 3

I definitely appreciate all that. Can we talk just follow-up on just the non comp piece and talk you had some big drops in amortization and depreciation and some marketing and stuff. So are those that actually run rate levels now going forward also because that was a nice positive surprise?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Glenn. It's Dennis. As we said over the last number of quarters, we've been very, very focused on non comp and containing the growth of non comp. There clearly are inflationary pressures that impact a number of items in our non comp expense. The sharp decrease sequentially, we're pleased with as well as the year over year decrease, But there were a number of items over the course of last year that we didn't necessarily expect to repeat.

Speaker 2

And so it's good to get on to a more normalized operating trajectory with respect to our non comp expense base. But it's something we're going to remain very, very focused on managing in a disciplined fashion. But I think this quarter is a much more normal quarter than some of the preceding quarters.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

Speaker 4

Good morning. I guess I just wanted to follow-up, David, you mentioned AI and would love there's it's hard in our seats to figure out what's hype, what's real. If you can double click on some of the comments you made around comparing what's going on with AI today versus maybe the dotcom bubble around the runway this might create for Capital Markets IB, not just for this year, but beyond? And then also the other side around, is there line of sight of how much more efficient Goldman itself can get by deploying AI? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Sure. So I mean, big picture and look, I'm not a stock picker. So I'm not going to comment when you make a comparison to the Internet explosion in 1999, 2000, 2000 and 1, I'm not going to comment around that. I think we've got a lot of stock market capitalization that's being driven by big platforms that I think have an enormous competitive advantage around the scaling of these technologies. But broadly speaking, these technologies require certain things including infrastructure, power, and these things require financing to drive the scale that's going to be necessary for people to execute on the investments that they see as important to keep their businesses competitive at pace.

Speaker 1

And that is creating an ecosystem of activity in our Investment Banking and Markets business that we've seen in the context of other areas of significant shift or macro expansion over a long period of time. So I actually think there's a very, very constructive runway of opportunity set for us with our clients as people reposition their businesses. And we're talking about a level of scale that is candidly unprecedented. And so I think that opportunity is something over the course, this is not a quarter to quarter thing. This is over the next 5 to 10 years.

Speaker 1

And we're very, very focused on it and very engaged. And by the way, it's not just companies, it's governments obviously that are making enormous investments, and bringing infrastructure into their locales. And so all of this is something that we're very strategically focused on. Double clicking and getting more narrowly focused on Goldman Sachs, I would just say we see enormous opportunities for productivity gains and also opportunities for efficiency. Our use cases that we're testing and that we're implementing focus on those two areas.

Speaker 1

But I'd really like the focus to be more on productivity and the ability to scale our smartest people to do more with our clients rather than expecting an efficiency gain that becomes very cost accretive. I think one of the most important things for this firm and the success of this firm is the time our people spend with clients, serving our clients, executing for our clients and these tools give us more productivity and also when we look at our data sets and what we have internally and ability to deliver them a value added package of information, thought process that we think could be differentiated. And so we're very focused on the productivity side, although of course, we have analog systems and processes where there will be efficiency and we're also focused on bringing those to bear when we look at our overall cost structure.

Speaker 4

That's good color. Thank you. And just separately for the Goldman stock, right? I think from an investor standpoint, a lot of focus on how quickly we can grow the share of asset management. You've talked about the HPIs coming down, alt assets going up.

Speaker 4

How else should shareholders and prospective investors think about strategy around growing the asset management revenues? And is inorganic growth at all part of the strategy and in terms of how management thinking about things today? Thank you.

Speaker 1

So we in January, we said to you, we thought high single digit growth with margin improvement and less capital density over time. We're executing on that. We are very focused at the moment on our organic execution. Firm obviously generates a lot of capital. There could be a time in the future where something might come up that could be interesting and could accelerate that pace in the overall mix.

Speaker 1

But at the moment, our focus is on the execution of what we have in front of us. And we are making good progress. But I think we've put out a handful of metrics both in terms of top line growth, our ability to continue to fundraise. You saw that we highlighted $15,000,000,000 of fundraising and alternatives in the Q1. We said we expect to raise $40,000,000,000 to $50,000,000,000 this quarter, this year.

Speaker 1

Obviously, the $15,000,000,000 keeps us on pace for the $40,000,000,000 to $50,000,000,000 we said we could raise this year. That doesn't stop this year. We think we have a very strong fundraising machine that can continue for a number of years going forward. So we're focused on the things that matter in Asset Management. What matters, performance matters, client experience matters.

Speaker 1

We're incredibly focused on both those things and working hard to make sure we use our global scale and the depth that we have around the world to execute very effectively.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Christian Boulud with Autonomous Research.

Speaker 5

Good morning, guys. Maybe I'll ask Glenn's question in a different way. If I look at that 18% ROE for the Global Banking and Markets business, it really catches my eye here. So how would you characterize this quarter's performance? Is it like sort of normal ish to you?

Speaker 5

Does it feel maybe peak ish to you? Again, just trying to figure out if 18% ROE is anywhere in

Speaker 2

that sustainable for that business?

Speaker 1

So it was a there's no way to shave this. It was a strong quarter for Global Banking and Markets. Peak, I mean, I can point in the last few years to quarters in Global Banking and Markets where the returns were higher. But I certainly wouldn't say that this is what we expect to be an average quarter in Global Banking and Markets. We've said clearly, we think that the mid teens business through the cycle, the performance this quarter was higher.

Speaker 1

There were performance last year was meaningfully lower. I think the right thing to focus on is mid teens through the cycle. That's the way we think about it. And there was client activity and opportunity set for us this quarter. And I think one of the things that we continue to try to talk about is that when there is opportunity with our clients, there is opportunity in the market.

Speaker 1

We're good at capturing that, delivering that for shareholders. And then when the environment is more tough though, this is a more durable and sustainable business than people may have looked at in the past. But I would view this as a very strong quarter in Global Banking Markets and not what we would target as the average run rates of the business. Okay. That's very helpful.

Speaker 5

Maybe on to Private Wealth, if I'm reading Slide 9 correctly, you had something like $17,000,000,000 of inflows into Wealth Management AUS. So that would equate to something like 9% organic growth, which is well above peers, I would call it best in class. So can you give more color on what's driving that growth? Maybe any color by regions or products as to what's resonating with clients? And again, longer term, how you're thinking about sustainability of that level of organic growth?

Speaker 1

Yes. Again, this I think comes down to focus and we made some very we talked about conscious decisions. We had talked about broadening our wealth platform to get much more broadly into what I call kind of high net worth wealth management. And with the sale of United Capital, we continue to be very focused on our ultra high net worth platform. It is an extraordinary platform.

Speaker 1

I do think it's a best in class platform. I do think that the ultrahighnetworth business is still a very fragmented business. While we have leading share, I think those shares are still on a global basis, a leader as a single digit share. There's a lot of wealth in the world. There's a lot of wealth accumulating.

Speaker 1

We are very, very well positioned to continue to capture that secular trend. And I think the business is performing very, very well. Our alts franchise, I think is differentiated and we're allowed to deliver Alts in an effective way to wealth clients. I think that's something that gives us a strong secular tailwind. We're expanding our private banking activity.

Speaker 1

That's not something that we have been focused on, which I think is also strengthening our position as a wealth manager. So I think there's a good runway for this business. I do think it's a best in class franchise that has room to grow and I think you're seeing it perform well and we're very focused on it. I think the sharp decision around how we're going to focus this business, I think we're benefiting from at the moment.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. Can you hear me okay?

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 6

Okay. All right, great. Just want to make sure

Speaker 1

I can hear you. Yes.

Speaker 6

All right. Thanks. So just two follow ups. One, I heard all the commentary about how the 1Q is run rate a little bit better than run rate on average over time, but it doesn't take away from the fact that 1Q was very strong. I just wanted to understand, was there anything that we should understand about the revenues in equities and fixed income, for example, that were different this quarter?

Speaker 6

And the reason I ask is, VAR efficiency was so strong, right? You've delivered very strong trading revenues on VAR that was basically flat Q on Q, I mean a little down, a little up depending on which asset class you're looking at. So was there anything in the when you mentioned you stepped into client activity and opportunity set, was there anything unique about that opportunity set that enabled you to do this in a way that didn't really tag VAR at all?

Speaker 2

Sure. Betsy, it's Dennis. Nice to hear from you.

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Look, to give you some color on that, I wouldn't point to any particular discrete item. I would say the revenue generation, the activity was broad based. But in addition to the consequence of the focus on market share and wallet share that we've made across the client franchise over time, we also did see good opportunities to risk intermediate on behalf of clients across geographies, across asset classes. And I would observe that over the course of quarter, it was just a very benign operating environment, credit spreads were tightening, equity valuations were going up and that provides a tailwind to our performance across portions of our Global Banking and Markets business as well. The Q1 is obviously often seasonally strong as well.

Speaker 2

So we think we really captured a lot of the opportunity that was presented by both the environment and our client engagement. And as David said, that may not necessarily be the case each and every quarter, particularly in FIC and Equities. So when we talk about like a global banking and market segment overall, clearly more upside across banking, but a strong performance across both FIC and Equities in Q1.

Speaker 6

Super. That's really helpful. Thanks for the incremental color there. Just one other follow-up. David, you mentioned you're able to deliver alts in a unique way to the wealth platform that you've got.

Speaker 6

Could you just give us a little more color as to what you're thinking about there that we should understand? Thanks so much.

Speaker 1

Sure. I think one of the things that our wealth management franchise finds very attractive is we run an open platform. And so when it comes to Alt, we obviously have a very, very broad, very, very deep, very, very unique offering as one of the top 5 or 6 all providers on an integrated basis in the world with our own product, what we're manufacturing out of our asset management business. But in addition, we want an open platform where we deliver them access to alternative solutions and products from all different world class managers around the world across the spectrum. And so I think that's a very, very unique offering that very, very affluent people who wealth management at Goldman Sachs find super attractive and super differentiated.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So wanted to ask one on your M and A franchise. So the recovery in announced M and A has been really impressive, but really kind of dominated by strategics. And given your strong franchise among sponsors, I'm curious to get an update about what you're seeing among that cohort and maybe when you might expect we will see a ramp in announcements from the sponsor side?

Speaker 1

Yes, Brennan, that's appreciate that question and that's a sharp observation on your part. The sponsor activity is still muted, but I would say it's definitely picking up. The engagement with sponsors in the quarter was meaningfully improved. And as I've said before, sponsors make money, both for themselves and for their investors by buying things and selling things. And the level of activity has been incredibly muted.

Speaker 1

And when you look at the LP community, the LP community is putting a lot of pressure on the financial sponsor community to return more capital and increase the velocity of capital return. And so I do think the pace is going to pick up in the coming quarters. I'd say the activity and interaction and engagement is higher in the Q1 than it was throughout 2023. But I would say it's still operating at lower levels and there's a lot of upside for our business. Our business is very correlated to a pickup in sponsor activity.

Speaker 1

And so to the degree that it did pick up, that would be a very big tailwind for our business across banking and markets broadly. When I look at our leveraged finance deals book, it's still operating at historically very, very low levels. We feel fortunate that we've got a good amount of capital flexibility that was to accelerate to deploy, which is obviously very accretive and attractive business. We're not seeing it really accelerate yet, but I think it's coming. And certainly, the sustained level we've had over the level we've had over the course of the last 12 to 18 months is not sustainable.

Speaker 1

It will pick up. It's just a question of when. And so that is a potential tailwind for our business in future quarters.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks for that color, David. I appreciate it. And then another question on alts. So fundraising looks really good.

Speaker 7

I know there can be some noise in the revenue. So just curious about the alts revenue down year over year and the AUS only up sort of marginally sequentially. Could you give some color around what was happening in those lines and maybe any potential noise?

Speaker 1

Sure. Brent, it's Dennis. So a couple

Speaker 2

of things. Obviously, the movement in AUS is a function of how we fundraise, how we deploy in overall levels. We have had a lot of success fundraising, not just in the last quarter at $14,000,000,000 but now with the full $265,000,000,000 plus since the original Investor Day. But there is a lag in terms of when some of that capital is put to use and actually moves into AUS. Not all of our funds that are raised are AUS ing immediately.

Speaker 2

So I think that is something you can look out for in future periods. And then in terms of some of the sequential on alts, as David was walking through our platform, our wealth platform in terms of having Goldman Sachs proprietary funds also open architecture, 3rd party platform, some of the alts fees we generate in raising capital for other managers on our platform. As we look over the sequential period, we had less by way of placement fees associated with those capital raises in the Q1 than we did in the Q4 last year.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 1

Hi. David, you

Speaker 8

reiterated the desire for Goldman to have a more narrow strategic focus, but you still have some cleanup from the past charges this quarter for GreenSky, the GM card platform solutions still lost $117,000,000 So I'm just trying to figure out in this context where Transaction Banking stands. I mean, you had 8% year over year growth, so that's decent. But 3 years ago, March 1, you guys said transaction banking, you're building global payments around the world. And then March 8 this year on Bloomberg, it says that you're closing Japan and now you're focusing on the U. S.

Speaker 8

And Europe. So on the one hand, are you simply pulling back your ambitions? On the other hand, maybe you have more financial discipline and you're making sure these adjacent activities are generating profits instead of just growth?

Speaker 1

Look, Mike, I think you summarized it well. I think it's yes to a bunch of the things that you said. We're looking hard we are I think it's very important for me to say that we're very committed to transaction banking. We think we've got very, very good technology and a good platform that we can grow and continue to scale over time. But there's no question we're very focused on making sure that we execute appropriately and that it's not just top line growth that it delivers profitability.

Speaker 1

It's something that sits in our client franchise and adds to the portfolio of things that we can bring to our clients. I think some of the ambitions might have been too broad in terms of our ability to execute immediately. And so we've narrowed that, but we remain committed, focused and growing. And I think this is a medium and longer term project that we will deliver on. It's small, but I think we've got the right focus.

Speaker 1

We made a hire to bolster the expertise and the leadership and we're moving forward on that strategy. And with respect to the cleanup, we continue to narrow and clean up the after tax loss from the platforms. It was less than $100,000,000 We've said clearly that we believe that we can bring the platforms to breakeven or profitability in 2025 and we're executing against that. Just to follow-up on the

Speaker 8

transaction banking, you said some ambitions were too broad. Again, it's better to have profitable growth than just growth. So point acknowledged. But what happened? I mean, where were you kind of underestimating expenses or the build out costs or what was more difficult than you had anticipated?

Speaker 1

Well, I think there were a number of things, Mike, that came together. I think when you're building new businesses, you give authority to the people that are building those businesses and you create metrics and you hold people accountable as you advance. And I think there were things where we thought we could do more globally than candidly when we really looked at the cost of executing and delivering. There was more friction in that context. And so we've chosen to narrow some of that in terms of the global footprint of that.

Speaker 1

That doesn't mean later there might not be opportunity to do it, but we think for now that's the right action. I'd say secondarily, the regulatory environment changed massively and has also raised the bar and created headwinds and a different lens with which we look at the expansion of these kinds of activities. And so that's something else that went into the mix. And so look, I think one of the things that we try to do is to look at everything with facts, with data, with information to be unemotional and to be willing to say, okay, this isn't exactly right, so we're going to adjust. And I think we're showing that we're willing to adjust and make adjustments always with a goal of growing the firm and delivering for shareholders, driving profitable businesses that deliver accretive returns for shareholders.

Speaker 1

We'll get some things right, we'll get some things wrong. But when we look at the information of the data and it's not exactly perfect, we'll adjust.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. So, wanted to follow-up David on good morning guys. Wanted to follow-up David with the earlier discussion just on sponsor related activity. Private credit fundraising remains robust, but the syndicated markets are also reopening. Just wanted to better understand what you're seeing in terms of competition in syndicated versus private markets, how it's impacting your IB and all franchises?

Speaker 9

And just given some of the price coverage, maybe just speak to your growth ambitions in the private credit space more broadly?

Operator

Sure.

Speaker 1

I'm going to make a couple of comments, but I'm going to ask Dennis to comment too because as you know, Dennis ran these businesses for us for an extended period of time. But I'd just say first the narrative that in some way shape or form, this is about the syndicated market versus the private market, I think is an oversimplification. As transaction volumes increase, particularly in the sponsor community, the amount of activity that will come out of the syndicated market will obviously increase meaningfully. We're very well positioned for that. We are one of the largest players in that.

Speaker 1

And that area is operating at its cyclical lows at the moment. But that's going to continue to be a very, very important part of capital formation and it's not going away. The growth in private credit will continue. I think we're very well positioned for that. We have about $130,000,000,000 of private credit assets, which makes us one of the largest players.

Speaker 1

I've said publicly, we have aspirations to continue to invest and grow and we see a number of places where we can do that. We're very focused on that. I do think it's important to highlight that we've not been through a credit cycle in a very long time. And so while there are lots of private credit players that continue to grow and expand, how those platforms and those businesses will respond when we do go through a credit cycle and we will go through a credit cycle is a little bit unclear at the moment. But I think strategically we're in a very, very interesting position because we have the ability to marry for our clients both our capabilities in the syndicated market and also our private credit capabilities.

Speaker 1

And you can see that, I mean, I can point to a transaction that was done in the last few months where we did just that. And in fact, it wasn't just in credit, it was in equity too. You can look at the Endeavor transaction and you can look at our ability to participate lead both as a syndicated lender, but also as a capital provider across the capital structure for our investors as an example of the way that I think our franchise and our platform is differentiated. Dennis, do you want to add anything to those comments? Sure.

Speaker 1

I think it's well covered. I mean, I think there's been a lot of discussion over the past year of

Speaker 2

sort of private credit versus syndicated alternative. But the reality is the syndicated alternative didn't really exist. And so it was really just a discussion around private credit. With Q1 activity levels, you now see a viable functioning and healthy syndicated loan market. The vast majority of the activity was actually refinancing.

Speaker 2

A lot of that refinancing was refinancing private credit capital structures with the more attractive pricing available in the broad based syndicated market. So the reality is these are all just forms of credit made available to different borrowers. And over time, I think there'll be a much more normalized mix, where you'll see underwritten as well as directly lent solutions, in some cases existing in the same capital structure. And I think we're just in a healthier environment that from Goldman Sachs' perspective is positive because the data points that we now see across the leverage lending market make sponsor estimated weighted average cost of capital much more observable and that should unlock their ability to start to price and put together transactions that should fuel some incremental sponsor related change of control activity. So I think the sort of 2 markets functioning side by side is good in terms of activity and what it means on the forward for Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 9

Really helpful color. And for my follow-up, just on capital management, CEQ1 continues to build. You're well in excess of the regulatory minimums. The direction of travel on Basel III in terms of expectations around the proposal, certainly more favorable. At the same time, it now looks like you might be more constrained by the SLR, which declined to 5.4%.

Speaker 9

I know that's never intended to be the binding constraint, but I was hoping you could just speak to how you're managing to leverage constraint, which at least appears to be binding at the moment and what we should expect in terms of the pace of buyback and whether that actually informs your expectation there?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Stephen. So, yes, you're right on all counts. Obviously, we have a variety of both capital and liquidity ratios that we manage to over time. The SLR is a slower moving ratio as you know, but our binding this can move back and forth between various ratios over time.

Speaker 2

And we have a bunch of levers that we can pull with respect to our activities to manage that. But I appreciate the question.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Devin Ryan with Citizens JMP.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks so much. First question just on kind of maybe a bigger picture on the wallet sharing markets. I know this has really been ongoing work for the firm and obviously not just the quarter, but really the past few years, this has been pretty consistent story. So if we kind of move aside financing, I'd love to maybe just drill down on some of the individual products that are accelerating in equities and FICC and where you're most pleased with the

Speaker 1

At a high level and this was one of the things that we observed and I think we got right over a period of time, We started with the top 100, we're now focused on the top 150 clients in these business. The top 150 clients provide a very significant portion of all the activity in this franchise. And so your share with them and managing the share with them has a big impact on your wallet shares. I think the thing that we've done well and that we see is really the case is that they all operate across all products and all activities and all silos. And the ability to create a very seamless experience for them across the firm is a big change for us versus where we might have been a decade ago.

Speaker 1

And so it's something we're very focused on. There are times when there's more activity in commodities, there's time when there's more activity in credit, there's time when there's more activity in mortgages. It moves and it ebbs and flows, but what we're really trying to do is to make sure we have the full package to serve them in the most effective way. And we've made real progress in that over the course of the last couple of years. I think the opportunity for us to continue to make progress comes from the fact that in the top 150, I think we stand it slightly under top 3 with 117 of them.

Speaker 1

Don't be over to that number exactly, okay, 117 of them. So obviously, we have progress to make because there's no reason why Goldman Sachs shouldn't be top 3 with the overwhelming majority much closer to 90% of those 150. And also when you look at top 3, there are also clients where we're 3rd, we absolutely should be 1st or second. So we continue to drill down. We continue to go talk to our clients, listen to our clients, get feedback on how we can do a better job serving them.

Speaker 1

And that discipline and that rigor, I think is helping us execute for them, but there's more work to do. We don't take our position for granted. We try to create the right culture of focus and intensity that allows us to continue to deliver and execute on

Speaker 10

Yes. Okay, great. Thanks, David. Maybe a quick follow-up here for Dennis, just on the equity investments not a great quarter there, not a drag either. It feels like it's been some time since we've seen maybe a more normal quarter without big puts and takes.

Speaker 10

And so just given the reconstitution of that book, how would you frame what a more normal quarter should look like from a revenue perspective? And then how the private portfolio is positioned if we are moving into a better exit environment? Obviously, it's been tough there as well. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks for the question. So a couple of things, and it may have been embedded in your question, but obviously looking at some of the on the progress in the equity investments line on a sequential basis, just a reminder that in Q4 when we sold Personal Financial Management that was reflected as a gain in equity investments about $350,000,000 that did not repeat. So that will give you some insight into how that's trending sequentially. On a year over year basis, we are seeing performance in the private portfolio sort of in line with what you're suggesting we might expect.

Speaker 2

But we did see a particular markdown in the public portfolio that sort of netted into the ultimate equity investment results. We also, as you know, have been focused on selling down portion of our historical principal investment. So combination of the ultimate size of the notional remaining in our portfolio combined with what the market conditions are, will obviously contribute to the ultimate performance. The other guidance that we've put out there generally, medium term guidance is that across both equity and debt investments, you're looking at a number of about $2,000,000,000 on a year. So you put that in the quarter about $500,000,000 those are some pieces of color I'd give you.

Operator

We'll go next to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Actually just to follow-up on the last question and comment, the runoff of the historical principal investment from the $15,000,000,000 here, the $2,000,000,000 that you just referenced, is that the runoff that you expect or was that alluding to the revenues per year?

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks. Let me clarify. I was making a comment with respect to revenue. And then separately, as it relates to the rundown of that portfolio, I guess the way to think of it picking up questions from last earnings and or this one, The progress that we made in the Q1 of roughly $1,500,000,000 We think that's decent assumption for the pace over the course of this year.

Speaker 2

And that we just reiterated our commitment to selling down substantially all of it in line with our target.

Speaker 8

Okay. So $1,500,000,000 per quarter is what you're implying from here for the rest of the year?

Speaker 2

On the historical principal investment portfolio, yes, we would expect something roughly in line with 1,500,000,000 per quarter for the balance of the year.

Operator

We'll go next to Saul Martinez with HSBC.

Speaker 11

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about your financing business and markets. And obviously, there's uncertainty about the Basel Endgame proposal. As you mentioned, the direction of travel seems to be for it to be materially lightened or even reproposed. But one of the areas where it is very punitive versus other jurisdictions is in securities financing, the risk weightings for unlisted entities.

Speaker 11

And that part of the proposal isn't materially altered and it doesn't seem like it necessarily is a focus. Does that impact your ability to grow your financing revenues? Is it a threat? Is it not a big deal? Can you offset it through pricing, product design?

Speaker 11

Just curious if you can provide a little color on that.

Speaker 2

Sure. So obviously, where Basel III ends up and which components of the rule actually are put in place and how they're drafted and how they're calculated, etcetera, will be highly determinative. But I'd say the breadth of our financing activities across both FICC and Equity are much broader than that particular component. And we expect that the underlying demand from our clients for financing across both FICC and equities will remain high. We have leading market shares and capabilities there.

Speaker 2

So we'll expect to be able to deliver in that regard. And depending on where various pieces of regulation end up, we'll make whatever adjustments we need either to pricing or the mix of our businesses, or look for other ways to serve our clients.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And then maybe just following up on Hunt Poisal and the implications of it being softened. Dennis, you mentioned more flexibility on capital deployment given the direction of travel on Basel.

Speaker 11

I mean, how should we be thinking about buyback activity from here? You did $1,500,000,000 Is there do you feel like there is scope to increase that and potentially bring your payout ratio even closer to 100% of earnings?

Speaker 2

Sure. I appreciate the question. We were deliberate in our script remarks about the degree of capital flexibility that we expected, but also pick up on something that David said earlier on the call, which is that we remain very committed to our capital deployment hierarchy, which starts with our client franchise. And some of the activities where historically we've been able to deploy capital have been less active. And so we have a good amount of cushion and flexibility at this point in time as our clients become more active.

Speaker 2

The first place that we're going to look to deploy our capital is to support our clients and their activities. And that after that we would of course as you know continue to be focused on a sustainable and growing dividend. And only after that would we think about return of capital.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs Q1 2024 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
The Goldman Sachs Group Q1 2024
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