PG&E Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 25, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PG and E Corporation First Quarter 2024 Earnings Release. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I will now hand today's call over to Jonathan Arnold, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG and E's Q1 2024 Earnings Call. With us today are Patty Poppe, Chief Executive Officer and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today's discussion will include forward looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management.

Speaker 1

Some of the important factors which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today's earnings presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slides along with other relevant information can be found online at investor. Pgecorp.com. We'd also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10 Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2024.

Speaker 1

With that, it's my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another quarter of solid progress with our core earnings per share for the Q1 coming in $0.37 We're also reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $1.33 to 1 $0.37 up at least 10% from 2023. And we're reaffirming our longer term earnings per share growth of at least 9% each year starting in 2025 and continuing through 2028. In addition, we remain firm in our commitment to no new equity in 2024.

Speaker 2

We're also pleased to share with you our 5 year financing plan, which Carolyn will discuss in more detail. What I want to emphasize is that our financing plan does not include the proposed sale of a minority interest in Pacific Generation. As you may have seen, we continue to advocate for the PacGen sale with the CPUC. We see the minority sale as an efficient financing alternative, one offering significant benefits to our customers, and it would further strengthen our plan. However, as you can come to expect, we plan conservatively, so the sale is not currently in the plan.

Speaker 2

The key takeaway is that we're comfortable reaffirming our earnings guidance and our $62,000,000,000 capital plan with or without PacGen. Our plan also enables us to grow our dividend payout to a level closer to our regulated utility peers with $2,500,000,000 included in the plan through 2028. Consistent with our conservative approach, the plan assumes up to $3,000,000,000 of equity starting in 2025, likely through a routine utility ATM program. Moving to Slide 4, what I want to impress upon you is this, California and PG and E specifically have a favorable risk profile given significant changes made following catastrophic wildfire events we experienced in our state back in 2017 2018. California did the hard work to address challenges to the investor owned utility model.

Speaker 2

Policy makers passed key legislation. Assembly Bill 1054 provides access to liquidity through a wildfire insurance fund with $21,000,000,000 of claims paying capacity. Cost recovery under the presumption that the utility's conduct is reasonable with a valid safety certificate and a cap on shareholder exposure if a portion of our requested cost recovery were to be disallowed by the CPUC. These protections afforded to PG and E under AB1054 are further complemented by our self insurance model, which limits shareholder exposure to a deductible of only $50,000,000 paired with our proven progress mitigating wildfire risk and significant actions the state has taken to strengthen fire prevention and response in our communities. California stands out as a model for all states that have wildfire risk and PG and E's operating system delivers the physical risk reduction, which further differentiates our story.

Speaker 2

In fact, we've reduced our wildfire risk by 94% and are working every day to reduce that further. As one additional proof point of our wildfire risk mitigation efforts, I'll remind you here on Slide 5 that in 2023, we reduced ignitions by 68% compared to 2017. And through the end of the Q1 of 2024, on a rolling 12 month basis, our weather normalized ignition rate remains at 0.93, more than a 70% reduction from 2017. As well as our differentiated wildfire risk reduction framework, we also have a differentiated approach for how we intend to grow our customer capital investments, while keeping bills affordable. Here on Slide 6 is our simple affordable model.

Speaker 2

Since its introduction, we have exceeded our annual non fuel O and M reduction target every year, reducing O and M by 3% in 2022 and 5.5% in 2023. This is new for PG and E and it will take repeated performance for our customers and policymakers to believe in the benefit of our new capability and what it delivers for customers. As I like to say, performance is power. When we perform, when we keep our commitments, we have the power to influence the perception of PG and E with our customers and investors. We are differentiated in our potential and our system to deliver on these annual non fuel O and M savings.

Speaker 2

Time will prove this out. One exciting element of our simple affordable model is the opportunity for load growth in our service area. Our electric load growth opportunities are not just electric vehicles and data centers, but an eventual and necessary decarbonization of our entire economy with clean electricity as the primary energy of the future. PG and E is vital to our state's ambition and the need to heal our planet. 1% to 3% load growth per year in the near term with upwards of 70% load growth over the next 20 years will be required as California moves to carbon neutrality by 2,045.

Speaker 2

California is not afraid to set ambitious targets and has proven repeatedly that we will innovate our way to achieving them. Cost savings and load growth coupled with continued efficient financing options are how we can execute on our commitment here on Slide 7 to control average annual bill increases to 2% to 4%. We appreciate that near term bill pressure due to consolidated years of GRC recovery and catch up recovery of wildfire mitigation expense is difficult for some of our customers. And I look forward to the day when we can announce the customers' prices are coming down. At the same time, we stand by the need for the near term increase as this GRC is funding critical work, which is making our customers and communities safer than ever before.

Speaker 2

Here on Slide 8 are just a few examples of important safety and reliability work funded by our GRC. Installation of more than 10,000 devices for situational awareness, system hardening, automation and reliability repair or replacement of over 175,000 units on our distribution lines, inspection of 2,000,000 and replacement of over 60,000 poles, replacement of more than 160 miles of gas distribution pipeline and undergrounding of 12 30 miles of distribution lines in high fire risk areas. As we perform this work, it is our responsibility to ensure every customer dollar is put to maximum use, which brings us to my story of the month here on Slide 9. You may recall that last year I shared a story on work bundling. Specifically, I highlighted an example of cross functional bundling where we planned and executed 12 jobs under one planned outage.

Speaker 2

I also left you with a little teaser saying this is just the tip of the iceberg. Well, my coworkers are now rolling out our next generation of work bundling with something we refer to as mega bundles. Using breakthrough thinking and our lean operating system, we've identified over 9,000 individual scopes of work and converted them into 20 bundled projects. With mezzabundling, we're looking at an entire circuit as one project. In the past, we plan and execute work at a granular level.

Speaker 2

For example, we'd roll a truck to replace a single pole or just one switch. When we look at an entire circuit, we may find 100 poles that need to be replaced. In Stockton, for example, we have one circuit with nearly 1,000 poles that will be completed this year. Bundling these poles into a single project improves safety, the customer experience, quality, cost, delivery and co worker morale. Imagine assembly line style production, the potential for one permit for hundreds of poles rather than hundreds of separate permits as it is today.

Speaker 2

Digging multiple pole holes per day in a specific region, resulting in significant fuel savings and less hazardous drive time for our coworkers, Framing hundreds of poles at a time using manufacturing style production off-site rather than 1 by 1 on-site and customer outreach to entire neighborhoods reduced outages and lane closures versus one job at a time. This approach also allows us to negotiate better contract pricing and reduced overhead costs. Overall, with mega bundling, we expect to see cost savings of at least 20% compared to historical all in cost, which will result in at least $20,000,000 of our customers' dollars saved just this year, freeing up resources to do even more safety and reliability work for our customers. When I joined PG and E, you may have heard one of my early observations. We're very good at engineering equipment, but we're not very good at engineering our work.

Speaker 2

Well, that's changing. Thanks to our performance playbook. We're delivering improved performance every day, which serves both customers and investors. With that, let me turn it over to Carolyn to walk you through the financial details.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Patty, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm looking forward to covering 4 topics with you. First, our quarterly results. 2nd, our 5 year financing plan. 3rd, our continued execution against our simple affordable model.

Speaker 3

And 4th, an update on our regulatory process. Starting here with our Q1 walk on Slide 10. Our first quarter core earnings of $0.37 are up $0.08 over the Q1 last year. Remember that our general rate case was approved in the Q4 when we booked the catch up revenues for all of 2023. Adjusting Q1 2023 for the GRC timing, our first quarter results are up $0.05 year over year.

Speaker 3

This improvement is primarily driven by an increase in customer capital investment and our CPUC rate base now provides an equity return of 10.7% as approved through the adjusted cost of capital mechanism advice letter. As a reminder, we said that we were not counting on this increase to meet our earnings guidance, but it does give us more flexibility to redeploy resources for the benefit of our customers. Other drivers include non fuel L and M savings of $0.01 offset by $0.02 reinvested back into the business to fund more work, such as increased transmission system inspections and electric asset mapping. Also this quarter, we revised our estimate for the duration of the wildfire fund established under AB1054. Based on all the data available to us, including the progress we've achieved in reducing physical wildfire risk on our system, the fund will provide coverage for 20 years.

Speaker 3

That's up from our previous estimate of 15 years. Another example of how AB1054 is working as intended. Turning to Slide 11. There are no changes to our CapEx or rate based guidance. Our plan includes $62,000,000,000 of customer investment over the next 5 years and we still have at least another $5,000,000,000 to pull into the plan once we make it affordable for both our customers and our balance sheet.

Speaker 3

And please keep in mind that in 2024, 93% of our rate base has already been authorized with 90% authorized out in 2026. This is higher than most utilities given our 4 year GRC cycle and we continue to pursue cost recovery to increase that percentage. As an example, we filed an application for our gas metering replacement program last month, seeking revenue requirement to support nearly $500,000,000 in capital additions from 2023 through 2026. That's in addition to the request filed late last year for revenue requirement to support the capital costs associated with moving our headquarters from San Francisco to Oakland. Here on Slide 12.

Speaker 3

Again, no changes from what we shared with you on our year end call. Our operating cash flow grows substantially from $5,000,000,000 last year to $8,000,000,000 this year. This reflects collection of both our 2023 GRC revenue increase and 2024 GRC revenues, as well as the catch up recoveries of our prior work, including interim rate relief. Our operating cash flow continues to rise through the planned period, reflecting our growing capital investment on behalf of customers. In total, we're forecasting $50,000,000,000 in operating cash flow from 2024 through 2028.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 13. With $50,000,000,000 as the starting point, we are pleased to share our 5 year financing plan to support our $62,000,000,000 of capital investment. As Patti mentioned, our financing plan does not include the proposed PacGen minority interest sale, which would further strengthen what we're showing here. Now for the highlights. 1st, we plan to grow our dividend over the next 5 years.

Speaker 3

Given our commitment to prioritize customer capital investment in the near term, we anticipate growing the dividend more slowly at the front end of our plan, with the payout stepping up more quickly in the later years. In the meantime, we are benefiting from nearly $2,500,000,000 of annual retained earnings this year and we consider this a valuable source of internally generated equity. 2nd, we forecast incremental utility long term debt needs of approximately $14,000,000,000 3rd, we continue with our plan to reduce our parent company debt by $2,000,000,000 by the end of 2026. Finally, we are contemplating raising new equity of $3,000,000,000 over the 2025 to 20 28 planning horizon, likely through a routine ATM program. This supports our $62,000,000,000 of customer capital investment and our consistent earnings guidance of at least 10% this year and at least 9% each and every year through 2028.

Speaker 3

Importantly, our commitment to no new equity in 2024 remains firm. In developing this plan, we had several key objectives in mind for our customers and our investors. 1, funding the significant safety and reliability investments our customers deserve 2, keeping customer bills affordable and within 2% to 4% assumed inflation 3, delivering on our premium earnings per share growth and 4, achieving solid investment grade ratings. We want to reinforce that final objective here on slide 14. We're targeting investment grade ratings at the corporate level.

Speaker 3

And since 2020, our ratings have improved steadily with all three agencies. We're now just 1 notch below investment grade at both Moody's and Fitch and on positive outlook at both. The recent improvements in our ratings are a function of demonstrated financial and operational progress since 2020, especially in mitigating wildfire risk. Our 5 year financing plan is designed to build on the progress we've made in all of these areas and reflects our laser focus on improving the balance sheet. And as a reminder, our operating cash flow increases $3,000,000,000 from $5,000,000,000 in 2023 to $8,000,000,000 in 2024 with continued growth through the planned period.

Speaker 3

This growing operating cash flow supports improving credit metrics, including our mid teens goal for FFO to debt. We also generate reinvestment dollars every year as we execute on our simple affordable model as shown here on Slide 15. I'll remind you that in 2023, we realized net cost savings of just over $500,000,000 Mega bundling, which Patty discussed, is just one more example of the wealth of opportunities we see here at PG and E to deliver more for our customers, while keeping build growth in the 2% to 4% range. Moving to Slide 16, our progress working with policymakers continues. Just during March, we saw a number of constructive regulatory decisions, which together accelerate well over $1,000,000,000 of cash flow.

Speaker 3

On March 7, the CPUC approved interim rate relief in the amount of $516,000,000 while our wildfire and gas safety cost application moves through the typical process. Next, on March 15, the Commission's Executive Director approved our request to delay until 2025, dollars 650,000,000 of contributions to the Customer Credit trust established as part of our rate neutral securitization. And finally, on March 20, the commission issued a proposed decision denying the petition for modification filed by joint ratepayers to suspend the formulae cost of capital adjustment mechanism for 2024. The proposed decision finds that the mechanism operated as intended. It also offers strong regulatory support for our return on equity.

Speaker 3

In terms of PacGen, we continue to believe this transaction is highly beneficial for customers. It has clear potential to lower bills, while accelerating our return to investment grade and bringing in a partner to invest in these assets, which are key to California's energy transition. We appreciate the commission wanting to take some time some additional time before making a final decision. Looking ahead, as you know, the California's legislature has passed a series of constructive measures, which have the potential to add upside to our plan and important benefits to our customers. This legislation, including Senate Bills 410 and 884, continues to move through the regulatory implementation stages.

Speaker 3

Regarding SB410, a proposed decision in Phase 2 of our general rate case, which we're now calling the capacity phase, is scheduled for later this quarter. This would authorize CapEx to support energization incremental to what was approved in our GRC. Regarding SB 884, on March 7, the Commission approved a resolution establishing CPUC guidelines for approving undergrounding plans. We remain prepared to file our 10 year undergrounding plan later this year when our safety regulator is ready to accept our submission. I'll end here on Slide 17 with a reminder of our value proposition.

Speaker 3

9.5% rate base growth through 2028, at least $5,000,000,000 of incremental investment opportunities, at least 10% core earnings per share growth in 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 through 2028, Growing momentum around credit ratings with 2 agencies, Moody's and Fitch, now just 1 notch below investment grade and with positive outlooks and the continued consistent execution of our simple affordable model, delivering both for our customers and you, our investors. With that, I'll hand it back to Patti. Thanks, Carolyn.

Speaker 2

As I reflect on the progress we've made over the last 3 years, just imagine our performance in the next 3. With the wildfire related legal and regulatory protections in place and with our physical and financial risk mitigation progress well understood and managed, we look to the energy transition in front of us and see nothing but opportunities. The future California Energy System calls on PG and E to deliver the clean electricity of the future. Growth will fuel the simple affordable model and California's economy. We can't wait to share more with you at the New York Stock Exchange for our investor update on June 12.

Speaker 2

With that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

Operator

Thank Your first question is from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Shar.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Patty, just starting off on the new financing disclosures, can we maybe elaborate sort of on the timing of equity needs and the leverage to manage the equity needs over time? The $2,500,000,000 dividend use of funds implies kind of a big step up from the current levels. So is the timing and the amount of the dividend kind of a lever to minimize dilutive equity? And do you assume or have an assumption around getting to IG status at the parent as a potential headroom for the equity needs?

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure. It's Carolyn. So I'm going to take that. So thanks for the question. There's a lot to unpack there.

Speaker 3

So let me just maybe start from the fact that we intentionally built a very reasonable intentionally built our plan to assume a reasonable balance of utility debt, parent company debt, dividend growth and a routine equity financing. Importantly, the plan is consistent with our earnings guidance of 10% in 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 through 2028. We as we look through the plan, a couple of things. We will remain focused on accessing the most efficient financing and we're going to always be mindful of market conditions. The plan does introduce a routine ATM program.

Speaker 3

So and routine, I think that what you can expect from that is sort of a ratable program over the course of our plan. That's the assumption. And then on the dividends, we did give you a number, dollars 2,500,000,000 And what we said to expect from the dividends is that we will grow it more slowly in the front end of our 5 year plan and then it will ramp up over the course of the 5 year plan. So I think that's how we're thinking about the balance between all of those elements of the plan. On IG status, we continue to make good progress there.

Speaker 3

And we can talk about that in detail in a bit. But yes, the plan assumes that we continue to make progress on our credit metrics.

Speaker 4

Got it. Perfect. And then, just maybe just top level and I appreciate that Carolyn. Patty, on just do you have any sort of thoughts on kind of the Buffet letter on sector wildfire risk? I mean, obviously caused a bit of a stir, painted everyone kind of in that same brush.

Speaker 4

It hasn't arguably helped the valuation levels for a lot of the West Coast Pacific Northwest names. I guess it's certainly just I guess any thoughts there on how we should be thinking about that because it's a question that we get a lot inbounds? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Shar, thank you for asking that question because frankly, I think Buffett got it wrong in California. California has done the hard work to mitigate both physical and financial risk. When I think about the physical risk reductions and the wildfire mitigations that we have in place, we've reduced 94% of our wildfire risk and that remaining 6% is protected with all of our situational awareness and the investments that the state has made in Cal Fire's ability to respond, our weather stations that have AI enabled cameras that are often the first notification to first responders. We used to have to wait for a citizen to notice smoke and call it in.

Speaker 2

Now we have technology that is the backbone of our wildfire mitigations and the incredible work that we're doing to rebuild our infrastructure to these new climate standards and to the new extreme weather is something we're very proud of. But then you combine that with AB1054 and the financial risk mitigations, there is a we investors are able to invest in California. The wildfire risk exposure for an investor is restricted to the $50,000,000 deductible of our self insurance $50,000,000 deductible of our self insurance. It's important for investors to know that. And the wildfire fund with $21,000,000,000 of claim capacity, we just revealed today that we've extended the life of that fund for 20 years up from 15 because AB1054 and our physical risk reduction is working.

Speaker 2

So I can just share that, Shar, I think California is very much investable. And I think PG and E specifically has put us in a position, the citizens of California have never been safer from wildfire risk. And I think that investors will soon come to believe that and definitely should not be swayed by a broad brush about all Western states. California is notably unique.

Speaker 4

Appreciate that. Thanks, Patty. I know for many of us that's obvious, but for a lot of us it may not be so. Thank you so much for the clarity. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, sir.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi, good morning. Good morning, Steve. So just hey, Patty, Carolyn. On the just a clarification on the dividend comment.

Speaker 5

When you talk about slower kind of early and then ramping up, is that kind of more on a cents per share basis or a percent basis? Because obviously with dividends low,

Speaker 6

a little bit of increase

Speaker 5

a big percent. So just want to see if you can clarify that.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I think our intent is to have a competitive payout ratio over the long term, right? And our financing here with the 5 years is that we intend to make meaningful progress towards having that competitive payout ratio. So when we think about it, you're right. Yes, we're going to start slower.

Speaker 3

So we think about it in terms of percent or we really haven't revealed that or talked about that publicly. But I think the key is that we're going to go slower in the front half of our 5 year plan because we're again committed to prioritizing customer capital investment and then on the back end it will go it will ramp up more quickly.

Speaker 7

Yes.

Speaker 2

And Steve, when I think about that dividend payout combined with our sector leading EPS growth, we feel that's a pretty compelling investment thesis. So we look forward to layering that on top of our already forecast at least 9% EPS growth in 2025 through 28. Percent.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then a question on the FFO to debt in the mid teens. With that operating cash flow improving, is it fair to say maybe mid teens can be kind of a wide range, is it fair to say you're kind of improving within the mid teens ratio over the period?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that's fair. We've not changed our FFO. We haven't changed any of our guidance for 2024. So we remain on target with our capital investment and our lean O and M savings and our EPS growth and the FFO to debt.

Speaker 3

And as our operating cash flow increases, and again, it increases $3,000,000,000 just from $23,000,000,000 to $24,000,000 but then you see it continuing to increase, We would this is what's driving our balance sheet health and improving our credit metrics over the plan period.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then one last question, just topic to your data centers. And I know Santa Clara is one of the biggest current data center areas. So just I think when you came out with your initial plan for low growth data centers were probably not as front and center of that. But Patty, I'm curious just how you're thinking about that now and just are you in a position to be able to kind of get them served, so to speak, with power on a timely basis?

Speaker 2

Yes, great question, Steve. And I'll share a couple of thoughts. 1, I think we will definitely be one of the big ancillary winners of the demand growth for data centers as well as electric transportation given our state policies and electrification of the state, the decarbonizing of our energy system. But I do want to just tell a quick story. I had a visit to our Metcalf sub, which is one of the critical substations, transmission substations across the nation.

Speaker 2

And we invited some customers to come. And when I got there, I was pleasantly surprised to see AWS, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Equinix, Cisco, Western Digital Semiconductor, Tesla, all in attendance. These are our customers that we serve who want us to serve more. And they were very clear that they would build where if we can provide. And so we're working on a plan that's going to be a big part of what we share in New York at Investor Day.

Speaker 2

We really want people to come out and see what the future looks like. I'm so proud of this team here at PG and E who has been able to mitigate the near term risks of physical and financial risk of wildfire, so that we can now play our rightful position in the industry and in the nation as a leader in the clean energy transition. Our state has ambitious goals. We're going to be the energy provider to fuel those ambitious goals and data centers are a piece of the puzzle. I'll also just add one recent publication from CAISO shared.

Speaker 2

CAISO forecasts an additional 120 gigawatts of clean electricity to be added in the next 20 years in California. That's 120 gigawatts on top of our 67 gigawatt system today. That is a 2 times increase and we are going to be the energy provider here in California. The transmission load that comes with that, we're in a position to win on the clean energy transition and so is California. And one last, just data point I'll share with you, Steve.

Speaker 2

We forecast that as we decarbonize the economy and reduce, carbon emissions by 70%, we forecast a reduction in household energy spend in the neighborhood of 20% to 30% household energy spend reduction as we decarbonize the economy because electricity is a more efficient fuel than gasoline. That is a win for citizens, that's a win for the planet and certainly that's a win for PCG Investors.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Nicholas Cappanella with Barclays.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Thanks for taking the questions today. Hi, good morning. I really appreciate everything on the financing plan. I guess, can you talk about how this kind of takes into account your views on the authorized cap structure and the operating company, just knowing that you have that waiver through 2025, do you kind of continue to assume that you get back to that over time or how should we kind of think about that?

Speaker 3

Yes. Nick, thanks for the question. So what's important about our plan is that it solves for 2 things. First is the $62,000,000,000 of customer capital, but it also does solve for meeting our regulatory and balance sheet targets, including the 52% utility equity ratio by mid-twenty 25, which is when the waiver expires. Does that answer your question?

Speaker 3

I think so.

Speaker 7

It does. I appreciate that. Thank you. And then, I guess just on Dixie, I think the liability is 1 point $6,000,000,000 and I'm just thinking about your prepared remarks about AB1054 framework and maybe you can kind of walk us through the process of when you file at the administrator, the timeline for clearance review, if any, and how we should going to be thinking about funds potential against that liability?

Speaker 3

Yes. So just to update you on the number. So at the end of Q1, we have paid out cash settlements of about $870,000,000 We cannot tap the earthquake fund until we've actually cash settled $1,000,000,000 in settlements. We expect to hit that $1,000,000,000 over the course of the summer and we've been having continued conversations with the earthquake authority to ensure that that is as smooth of a claims process as possible. Yes, it's $1,600,000,000 A couple of things other to note is that one, the statute of limitations on Dixie runs out in October and the earthquake authority actually booked a $600,000,000 loss on their books for a payout.

Speaker 3

And so it's just it's very we've been working very closely with them. I think we're expecting a very smooth process at this point in time. And I think I answered all your questions there. So I'd leave anything out.

Speaker 7

Yes, you did. Thank you so much. Have a great day.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Nick.

Operator

Your next question is from the line Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks so much for taking my question. Maybe just on PacGen, can you just refresh us on kind of the next steps to watch there? Obviously, you mentioned it got held at the last meeting till potentially May 9. So just what should we be watching on that front?

Speaker 3

Yes. At this point, as you know, we did submit comments and we requested a supplemental phase. And as you stated, the PD is held until at least the May 9 CPUC meeting. We don't know yet whether they're going to agree to our request to come forward with more information, including the identity of our minority partner. But we appreciate that the CPUC is taking more time to finalize this decision and we're going to use that time obviously to advocate because we continue to believe that PacGen is highly beneficial for our customers.

Speaker 3

It brings affordability to the bills. It helps accelerate our return to investment grade. And importantly, it brings in a partner who's going to help us grow these assets that are critical to California's energy transition. So at this point in time, we're we believe PacGen is a good transaction. We're going to continue to advocate for it.

Speaker 3

And we are waiting for the final decision or an approval to do the 2nd phase. I will just add that we provided our financing plan. Again, I'll note that it was without PacGen, but with PacGen that current plan would certainly be strengthened.

Speaker 8

Got it. Appreciate that color. And then maybe just on the balance sheet, thanks for the commentary before on the FFO to debt levels. Just curious what your latest views are on sort of the milestones or the timeline to get back to the IG rating?

Speaker 3

Yes, both thanks for the question. We're very proud of the progress that we've made there. And rating agencies, both Moody's and Fitch have us just 1 notch below investment grade and have us on positive outlook. Both have indicated that they're continuing to look at the way we wildfire risk our wildfire risk mitigation. And as Patty has noted that we continue to make really good progress there.

Speaker 3

And so we would expect another action by both of them over the course of the next 12 months. And I think they're both looking at the maybe another season. And our financial metrics continue to improve and they're continuing to watch those as well.

Speaker 8

Great. Appreciate all the color.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Carly.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey, good morning, Jeremy.

Speaker 9

Just want to come back to the financing plan a little bit more if I could parsing through there. And just want to make sure I understood things right, think about the right way. If I think about the Holdco debt, our understanding is it's more of a commitment to pay down as opposed to an obligation, which would seem to imply some flexibility there. And if that is the case, how do you weigh that versus, I guess, equity dilution or even capital deployment pace? Just wondering how this all kind of mix together as it seems like that could be a lever to reduce needs there if PacGen doesn't materialize as hoped?

Speaker 3

Again, the plan assumes that PacGen does not include PacGen and PacGen would only strengthen the plan. That's number 1. Number 2, the plan does include paying down $2,000,000,000 of parent debt by the end of 2026. And so again, we are managing a couple of things in this plan, as you said, our capital investments. We have more capital than needs on the system than our plan of $62,000,000,000 We are managing the equity the utility equity ratio of 52%.

Speaker 3

So but what's really important as we look at equity, I just again will say that we will always look to access the most efficient financing alternatives and we'll be very mindful of market conditions. And so I think those are the key points, to be mindful about. Does that answer your question?

Speaker 9

Got it. Yes, just curious if I had the understanding of the HoldCo debt pay down being a commitment, not an obligation.

Speaker 3

That's right. It's a commitment. We're very and as we said, we're very focused on our balance sheet health and reaching investment grade status.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's helpful there. Thanks. And then maybe just kind of pivoting here, given continued national attention on wildfires and everything that's happened as discussed on the call. Could you talk to PCG's kind of leadership role in the industry engagement with peers to socialize best practices?

Speaker 9

Is clearly, PCG has really advanced in this mitigation and wondering how you think about your role within the industry at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. Jeremy, thanks for asking the question. We feel compelled to play our part. We've learned a lot through some tough times. And so it would be a shame if we didn't share those learnings with others, just like other energy and utility providers have shared with us and we have learned from them.

Speaker 2

So we do feel that we can play an important role nationally. I do think California can serve as an important model for how perhaps a regional or national solution might be able to be implemented. California has scale on its side, so we can have a regulatory and financial protection, that goes with our physical protections. But at a some of our smaller states might benefit from a national solution and we certainly will have a voice in that. I'm thankful for EEI as a good platform where we work together as an industry.

Speaker 2

It's one of the things I love about this industry that we share lessons with one another. We've been spending time together in the recent months learning from each other and sharing best practices. And so we will continue to do that. And I do believe that PG and E and I intend to personally work hard to make sure that the nation learns the lessons that we've learned. We've taken a stand here at PG and E that catastrophic wildfire shall stop.

Speaker 2

And when we took that stand, some people thought we were a little overzealous, but I see that stand coming to life every day. And we didn't say in California or we didn't say California or catastrophic wildfire caused by PG and E's equipment, we said catastrophic wildfire shall stop. Just like the nation learned to mitigate risks of earthquake and hurricanes, we can learn to mitigate the effects of drought that cause wildfire conditions. And so we certainly will be active nationally to help others know. And I'm just gratified by the people of California who have done the hard work to put in the mitigations that exist today here as we speak that we don't have to wait for those mitigations to be in place.

Speaker 2

They exist here in California today and they serve as a blueprint for the nation.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's very helpful. And just want to go a little bit more with that. I guess on a national level, how do you think about the potential for some national policy here? Conversations really starting, moving in earnest or how do you think about the possibility of that over time?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think there is a possibility. I think one of the things we lack at the national level is a national safety regulator for wildfire like we have PHMSA on the gas pipeline. PHMSA did a great job of bringing together all the parties and establishing safe practices that have then been implemented nationwide that regulators can look to and know that their utilities are not gold plating, but their utilities are doing the recommended safety standards. We need the same thing on the electric side. So I do think that's something that we're having a lot of conversation about, who is that appropriate safety regulator and how do we establish standards.

Speaker 2

Because right now, plaintiff's attorneys are setting the standards and they use whatever the highest standard that someone else did and that might not be the appropriate standard in certain states. And so we want to make sure that the safety standards are clear and then some sort of national fund makes a lot of sense to us that mirrors the California fund that exists today.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. You're welcome. Thanks, Jeremy.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Greg Arell with UBS.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Greg. Good morning, Greg.

Speaker 6

Just maybe a clarification please on the equity guidance of sort of up to $3,000,000,000 What would change that or should we just think about the $3,000,000,000 And then is there should we also sort of assume that the FFO to debt metrics continue to show improvement through the plan? Or is there a plateauing there? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think let me just take the second one first and then we can go back. I think on the FFO to debt, as we mentioned answering Steve's question. So yes, so our FFO to debt does is 1, we when we're hitting our target for this year. And 2, as you look at our operating cash flow, that's where I really draw your attention to, you can see that our operating cash flow continues to improve throughout the 5 year plan.

Speaker 3

And our FFO to debt is really improving across the plan as our operating cash flow improves. So you can see that. Now does it plateau, we haven't given you that information at this point in time. Now the $3,000,000,000 in equity is what's in our plan. That is the amount.

Speaker 3

And how you should think about that as we've said is that we will be very mindful of market conditions and we will always be looking to access the most efficient financing alternatives available to us. And I think that's the bottom line. Is there any other question on that?

Speaker 6

Nope, understood. Got it. Thank

Speaker 7

you. Thanks, Greg.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi.

Speaker 10

Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey, Ryan.

Speaker 10

Hi. In terms of cost cutting initiatives, how much visibility do you have in achieving your goals? I know, Kristen, you've been making a lot of progress there, but trying to get a sense of how many quarters or years out you have line of sight to achieving those stated goals?

Speaker 2

Brian, this is my favorite question. Thank you for asking it. I swear we have unlimited line of sight for places where we can continue to do more for customers at a lower unit cost. And I had the most gratifying visit this week to a place in Dublin, California where we say we're reinventing inspections, where the team was completely data driven and focused on how can we do the right inspections that predict the right failures and do the right repairs at a lower cost using technology and process design and it was just unbelievable how fast this team is learning to embrace our lean operating system and our performance playbook. Our safety management system combined with our lean operating place and our breakthrough thinking is unlocking extraordinary ideas from this team And I am so proud of what I see them doing.

Speaker 2

And I can see that we are just getting started. I have a lot of experience in this area and it has long been my experience that no process is ever finished that we will always find ways to improve what we do, do it smarter, do it for less, save customers money while we're improving the service we deliver to them. And we are just unlocking that potential. We are in the first inning of unlocking that potential here at PG and E and it has the opportunity to provide benefits for customers for decades to come.

Speaker 10

Great. And then one on financing to the extent you're able to comment. So with the stated intention, correct me if I'm not hearing this correctly around a programmatic ATM starting in 2025. To the extent that PacGen were to be monetized in some way or form, would that is that viewed to be a direct offset to equity or are there other considerations that we should take in mind?

Speaker 3

Yes, I wouldn't necessarily assume that. I think, 1, a PacGen approval certainly strengthens the plan. And so it's better for our balance sheet and it's better for our customers. It's going to allow us to consider a number of different elements in the current plan, but particularly how much customer work we get done because as we've said, we have more customer work than the $62,000,000,000 And then we'll also consider our debt financing assumptions. I think what's important, again, I go back to is that we will always look at the most efficient financing and we'll be mindful of market conditions.

Speaker 2

Thanks for the

Speaker 3

clarity. Thanks, Ryan.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of David O'Cao with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 3

Hi, David.

Speaker 11

Let's see. It was just maybe a bit of a follow on on that. As I'm thinking about the $5,000,000,000 in potential upside CapEx opportunities, how would you think about financing that in terms of potential equity needs incremental to plan?

Speaker 3

On the $5,000,000,000 so thanks for the question. So what's important for us on the $5,000,000,000 is that it is affordable. It needs to be affordable for our customers and fitting within our target of bill increases that are in line with inflation of the 2% to 4%. And then it needs to be affordable on our balance sheet. And so I go back to our plan, it has a reasonable balance of the debt, both utility debt and company debt and dividend and routine equity.

Speaker 3

And as we implement that plan, we will again be very mindful of market conditions and look for the most efficient financing for

Speaker 2

that $5,000,000,000 And David, I'll just add that keep in mind things like, for example, a 1% reduction in O and M is $100,000,000 of additional, or additional cash flow. And so as we think about we continue to do more for less that frees up cash flow to do more work and pull in additional capital and fund it through efficiencies, through some of our more efficient financing. One of the things we wanted everyone to really hear today is this financing plan is a conservative plan. It's a good plan and it can only improve from here. So, this is a good starting point, a good baseline and we're excited to share it with you today.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thanks. Yes, that's helpful. I was wondering, as we think about the load growth outlook and the potential for data centers, could you speak to maybe just how long it takes to connect a new large load to the system and any initiatives that you're involved in that could reduce that time and increase the efficiency there?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question. I will say that I think there's a national challenge with the supply chain and being able to access some of the necessary equipment to build out that capacity, as well as timely cash recoveries and cost recoveries for that investment. We've got the cost recoveries improvement here in flight in California with SB410. We're looking forward to that process coming so that we can have certainty about the cash flow recovery associated with building out that new capacity. So that's been a delay for certainly for some people and certainly for us.

Speaker 2

But I'd say the biggest delay right now is the supply chain. And so we're doing something called a cluster study where we have brought together that was one of the reasons we had all those customers at the Metcalfe sub with us the other day is we're doing a study with them collectively so that if we can understand their instead of one project at a time, looking at a suite of these projects, really So we're very excited So we're very excited about the transparency that's being created here with our big customers so that we can better build out their large load demands.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. That's good to know. Thanks so much. I appreciate it.

Speaker 2

You're welcome. Thanks, David.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now hand today's call over to Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tamika, for being our operator today. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We're glad that you were with us. We hope that you appreciate the information that we shared. We're excited to see you in June 12 at the New York Stock Exchange.

Speaker 2

We are going to be sharing our latest wildfire mitigation technologies. You're going to meet some of our brightest and best who are closest to the improvements that have been made here. So you can have more and more confidence both in the physical and the financial risks that have been mitigated here in California. And because of that success that we've experienced in the physical and financial risk mitigation of wildfire, we have the privilege of looking forward and planning for the energy system of the future for California. We are proud to be the providers of that clean energy and clean electricity that will fuel the decarbonizing of our nation and our state.

Speaker 2

And we are proud to serve the role and answer the call from California. And we'll be able to share more with you about our plans in that light and what the growth of PG and E looks like going forward. So we look forward to seeing you in New York. Thanks so much for tuning in today, everybody. Please be safe out there.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
PG&E Q1 2024
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