Armstrong World Industries Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 30, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Quarter 20 24 Armstrong World Industries Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Theresa Wambo, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and welcome everyone to our call this morning. On today's call, Vic Grizzle, our CEO and Chris Calzaretta, our CFO, will discuss Armstrong World Industries' 1st quarter results and rest of year outlook. To accompany these remarks, we have provided a presentation that is available on the Investors section of the Armstrong World Industries website. Our discussion of operating and financial performance will include non GAAP financial measures within the meaning of SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of these measures with the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included in the earnings press release and in the appendix of the presentation we issued this morning.

Speaker 1

Both of these are on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will be making forward looking statements that represent the views we have of our financial and operational performance as of today's date, April 30, 2024. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may differ materially from those expected or implied. We provide a detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties in our SEC filings, including the 10 Q filed earlier this morning. We undertake no obligation to update any forward looking statement beyond what is required by applicable both securities law.

Speaker 1

Now, I will turn the call to Vic.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Theresa, and good morning and thank you all for joining our call today. We're pleased to report record setting Q1 financial results, a continuation of the momentum from last year into 2024. We're also excited to share more about the recently announced acquisition of Freeform within our Architectural Specialties segment as well as the continued traction from our key growth initiatives, which continues to help offset weaker market conditions. And it's important to acknowledge our ability to execute on all of these could not be possible without the focus and dedication of our nearly 3,100 employees. So thanks to the entire Armstrong team.

Speaker 2

Now starting at the total company level, we reported a 5% increase in net sales compared to Q1 of 2023 and adjusted EBITDA growth of 16% with 300 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 23% and adjusted free cash flow rose 46% from the prior year. Each of these net sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted free cash flow, all were at record levels for our Q1. Within our Mineral Fiber segment, 1st quarter sales increased 5% year over year driven by strong AUV performance that more than offset lower volumes. Our solid AUV performance of 8% represented a balance between favorable like for like price and favorable mix.

Speaker 2

The mix improvement in the quarter was largely driven by lower volumes in our lower AUV home center channel as compared to the build of inventory in the prior year. Mineral Fiber sales also benefited from our digital growth initiatives, Canopy and Project Works. Canopy continued to contribute year over year volume growth, while Project Works continued to gain traction with architects, designers and contractors. Sales from these growth initiatives largely offset a modest headwind from market softness. The strong Mineral Fiber AUV performance in the quarter coupled with solid earnings from our Wave joint venture and lower input costs resulted in an 18% increase in Mineral Fiber EBITDA and EBITDA margin of 41% with 4.50 basis points of margin expansion.

Speaker 2

I'm pleased with these results as they reflect a high level of performance and execution by our teams. This includes our consistent and steady productivity efforts, our disciplined commercial execution, and our ongoing product and process innovation. All of these factors are critical to Armstrong consistently providing our customers with best in class service levels and product innovation that distinguish what we provide customers versus our competitors. Another contributing factor to our Mineral Fiber results that's important to call out was the continued performance of our manufacturing plants and specifically the quality and service levels we achieved in the quarter. As I've mentioned before, we track an index of 5 key measures of service and quality that are critically important to our customer, which feeds a single metric we call the perfect order measure.

Speaker 2

This is a tough measure to hold ourselves to as we strive for perfection on every single order to our customers. This measure includes order accuracy, on time delivery, shipping damage, product defect and billing accuracy. And this quarter, the measure was near record levels and is just another piece of the total customer experience serving as an important differentiator versus our competition. So overall, an outstanding quarter in our Mineral Fiber segment. Now turning to our Architectural Specialties segment.

Speaker 2

Net sales increased 6% and EBITDA grew by 4%. In the quarter, we experienced some choppiness in the demand pattern, which from time to time given the project nature of this business. However, we continue to see an increase in activity related to transportation projects as a result of the government infrastructure bill. We expect this activity to continue in the coming quarters and possibly provide a 3 to 5 year tailwind to demand for our specialties business. Shifting project timelines for these large complex projects, however, can lead to choppy sales patterns quarter to quarter as we experienced in the Q1.

Speaker 2

Our order intake continued to be positive in the quarter and we remain confident in our ability to grow faster than the market in the specialties category. Now let me turn to the exciting news that we announced yesterday, the acquisition of 3 Form. 3 Form is a well established category leader and represents the largest business we've acquired to date and we're excited to welcome 3 Form's almost 400 employees Armstrong. 3 Form is a highly respected brand and design leader in translucent resins and glass used in a wide range of interior applications. Their products are highly specified and can be found in almost any building across a wide range of market verticals.

Speaker 2

Freeform has deep expertise using color, texture and light to truly elevate the design of a space. Their products are on important design trends, centered on occupant well-being and bringing the natural light indoors. With Freeform and the multiple acquisitions we've completed, we continue to strengthen our position in the Architectural Specialties category, enabling access to more designers, broadening our specifiable product offering and ultimately selling it to more spaces within commercial buildings. As we've proven, we have a unique ability to use the strength of the Armstrong's platform to grow and unlock additional value from the companies we acquire and we're excited to do the same with 3 Form. With this acquisition and coupled with our successful organic penetration within this category, we're well on our way to grow this segment to over $500,000,000 in sales.

Speaker 2

Now I'll pause and turn the call over to Chris for a closer look at the financial results. Thanks, Vic, and good morning to everyone on the call. As a reminder, throughout my remarks, I'll be referring to the slides available on our website and Slide 3, which details our basis of presentation. Beginning on Slide 7, we discuss our Q1 Mineral Fiber segment results. Mineral Fiber sales grew 5% in the quarter, driven by AUV of 8%, partially offset by lower volumes of 3%.

Speaker 2

1st quarter AUV was driven by both favorable like for like pricing and favorable mix. We continued to realize price in line with our expectations in the quarter and the favorable mix was largely driven by channel mix dynamics as we lapped prior year inventory level increases in our home center channel that did not repeat in the current year quarter. This also drove the decrease in Mineral Fiber volumes. In addition, in the quarter, our initiatives delivered positive volume, which largely offset soft market conditions as compared to the prior year quarter. Mineral Fiber segment adjusted EBITDA grew by $15,000,000 or 18 percent and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 4.50 basis points to 41%.

Speaker 2

The main drivers of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion were the fall through of AUV and a solid contribution from Wave Equity Earnings. Wave Equity Earnings grew $7,000,000 versus the prior year, driven by higher volumes and margin improvement. We also saw lower Mineral Fiber input costs, driven primarily by freight and energy, specifically natural gas, and to a lesser extent, favorable inventory valuation timing versus the prior year period. These lower input costs were offset by an increase in SG and A expenses. On Slide 8, we discussed our Architectural Specialties or AS segment results.

Speaker 2

Sales growth of 6% in the quarter was driven primarily by contributions from our 2023 acquisition of Boak Modern and continued strength of our metal category. Despite contributions from some larger transportation projects that help support mid single digit sales growth, shifting project timelines and delays drove uneven demand in the segment during the quarter. This choppiness is not unusual for the project based businesses in AS. Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed by 20 basis points in the quarter. While margins were pressured due to lumpy manufacturing costs and selling investments, we remain focused on margin expansion in the segment.

Speaker 2

And as we have previously mentioned, we remain committed to returning to our goal of a greater than 20% EBITDA margin level in the AS business. In fact, on an organic basis for the full year 2024, we still expect to expand EBITDA margins in this segment. As we continue to monitor project timelines and backlog, we remain encouraged by the activities surrounding the transportation vertical. And as Vik noted, we're excited to add 3 forms to the IS segment. Our financials will be included in our consolidated results beginning in the Q2 of 2024.

Speaker 2

I'll comment on 3 forms impact to our 2024 outlook in just a few minutes. Slide 9 highlights our Q1 consolidated company metrics. We grew adjusted EBITDA by 16% and expanded margins 300 basis points versus the prior year period, driven by AUV fall through to EBITDA and solid WAVE equity earnings. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 23% and adjusted free cash flow increased 46% versus the prior year period. Our total company adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.9 percent marks a solid start to the year and in fact was our best first quarter margin performance since Q1 of 2020 prior to any significant pandemic related impacts.

Speaker 2

Slide 10 shows our year to date adjusted free cash flow performance versus the prior year. The 46% increase was driven primarily by higher cash earnings and lower CapEx, which was partially offset by unfavorable working capital impacts. We continue to be pleased with our ability to deliver strong adjusted free cash flow growth and remain focused on driving profitability, which fuels our cash generation. As we mentioned on our February call, earlier this year, we entered into a strategic partnership and made a $6,000,000 equity investment in overcast innovations with McKinstry, an innovative leading construction and energy services company for a 19.5 percent ownership interest. Our portion of Overcast's results are recorded within our unallocated corporate segment.

Speaker 2

And just yesterday, we announced our acquisition of 3 Form for a purchase price of $95,000,000 which reflects a multiple that is in line with our historic pre synergy EBITDA multiple of 8 to 10 times. We expect that this acquisition will be a positive contributor to all of our key metrics in 2024. Recall that our capital allocation priorities are reinvesting back into the business first, where we see the highest returns. 2nd, we pursue strategic partnerships and bolt on acquisitions. And lastly, creating value for shareholders through our share repurchase program and dividends.

Speaker 2

Strategic investments like Overcast and 3 Form are examples of how we're executing on our second capital allocation priority to create value for shareholders. Given our healthy balance sheet and our proven ability to consistently generate strong cash flow, we remain well positioned to execute on all of our capital allocation priorities. In the Q1, we repurchased $15,000,000 of shares and distributed $10,000,000 of dividends. As of March 31, 2024, we have over $700,000,000 remaining under the existing share repurchase authorization. Recall in July of last year, this authorization was increased by $500,000,000 and extended through 2026 and remains an important component of our capital allocation priorities in support of our strategy moving forward.

Speaker 2

Slide 11 shows our updated full year guidance for 2024. We have raised our guidance for the year to reflect improved Mineral Fiber Profitability and the contribution from the acquisition of 3 Form. Including this acquisition, we now expect total company net sales growth in the 8% to 11% range, an increase from our prior guidance of 3% to 6% growth. The increase in our net sales guidance for the year is primarily driven by 3 Form. As mentioned in our February call, we still expect slower economic growth in the back half of twenty twenty four and we continue to expect our growth initiatives to partially offset modestly lower market demand, resulting in mineral fiber volume to be down in the low single digit range.

Speaker 2

We expect Mineral Fiber AUV to be in line with our historical average of mid single digits, returning to a more balanced split of price and mix and along with solid contributions from Wave Equity earnings to continue to drive Mineral Fiber EBITDA margin expansion. We now expect total company adjusted EBITDA growth in the 8% to 13% range, an increase from our prior expectations of 5% to 9% growth. The increase in our adjusted EBITDA guidance versus our February outlook is roughly evenly split between contributions from 3 Form and improved mineral fiber profitability. The improved mineral fiber profitability is driven primarily by lower than expected input costs that we now expect to be closer to flat for the full year compared to the prior year and better than expected contributions from Wave based on their Q1 performance. We still expect adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted free cash flow to grow at a rate similar to adjusted EBITDA with 3 Form accounting for about half of the increase in adjusted diluted EPS compared to our prior guidance.

Speaker 2

Please note that additional assumptions are in the appendix of this presentation. As we look forward, despite lingering macroeconomic uncertainty in the back half of the year, our focus remains on solid execution and EBITDA margin expansion in 2024. We remain committed to driving consistent profitability and free cash flow generation to support our capital allocation priorities and to continue to create value for shareholders. And now I'll turn it back to Vic for further comments before we take your questions. Thanks, Chris.

Speaker 2

Let me take a minute and talk about the market backdrop and what we're currently seeing in commercial markets. Overall, the market appears to be stable at a low down low single digit level and consistent with what we've been seeing over the past several quarters. There continues to be pockets of strength in verticals like transportation, education, healthcare and data centers, with retail and office appearing to be more stable. Looking ahead to the back half, there remains a level of uncertainty around the direction of interest rates, inflation and their overall impact on economic activity. We also hear this level of uncertainty from customers as it pertains to the build in their backlogs and what they are seeing in the market.

Speaker 2

With this uncertainty and its likely impact on discretionary renovation activity, we're still expecting a modest softening in the back half of the year. Now regardless of market softness, our business model provides resilience. This resilience allows us to deliver profitable growth and create value despite soft market conditions. We demonstrated this unique resilience in 2023, delivering profitable growth, expanding margins in what was overall a challenging market. And we are well positioned to do more of the same this year.

Speaker 2

The resilience of this business has been a hallmark for many years. And the uniqueness of the ceilings category, along with our unique position in it as an innovation leader, has and will continue to add value and new attributes to the ceiling category. It's the innovation that provides these new attributes and a unique value proposition to our customers and ultimately positioning us to consistently grow AUV year after year. Now an area of innovation that we believe is important to our customers involves products and solutions that address energy efficiency and carbon reduction. As we noted in our February call, late in 2023, we introduced Ultima TempLok ceilings, the industry's 1st ceiling tile that can help regulate temperatures within buildings and reduce energy costs, the 1st ceilings that pay for themselves over time.

Speaker 2

This is increasingly important because we know buildings generate about 40% of all carbon emissions generated annually in the U. S. And 2 thirds of that is related to powering, heating and cooling a building. Our most recent product launched this year, Ultima Low Embodied Carbon or LEC ceiling tiles tackles the challenge of embodied carbon. The impacts from embodied carbon account for the remaining 1 third of a building's carbon generation.

Speaker 2

The new Ultima LEC ceiling tiles are the lowest embodied carbon mineral fiber tiles on the market today, while maintaining its typical acoustical and aesthetically appealing attributes. These products are part of an innovative solutions to help address the building industry's challenges, thus making the ceilings category increasingly more relevant. And again, as important, these innovations come in the form of products that deliver overall AUV growth for Armstrong. So let me close by recapping our proven long term earnings growth model that positions us well to deliver consistent growth in all parts of the economic cycle. Our growth model begins with investing organically back into our business on innovation and initiatives that create new value added products like the energy saving and low embodied carbon products just mentioned and design services like Project Works that respond to the current and evolving market needs that strengthen our competitive position and ultimately drive long term AUV growth.

Speaker 2

In Architectural Specialties, we pursue attractive new acquisition opportunities that add to our existing industry leading portfolio, providing the broadest offering of products and services in this attractive growing category. And we have a proven track record of acquiring specialty businesses that when bolted onto the Armstrong platform can be scaled to improve efficiencies to deliver top line growth and operating leverage. And lastly, we're able to make these investments because of our strong consistent free cash flow generation and high EBITDA margins that are among the highest in the building products industry. This allows us to invest in our business organically and inorganically, while keeping our leverage at attractive levels. The consistency of our cash flow generation also enables us to make these investments, while also returning cash to shareholders.

Speaker 2

We believe this is an attractive long term growth model for our company that continues to position us well even during times of market softness and economic uncertainty. And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer Your first question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Thank you, everyone. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Good

Speaker 3

morning. My first question is, I just want to get a bit more color on the choppiness that you talked about in terms of some of those architectural specialty projects coming through this quarter. Is there anything specific that you think caused some of the shifts in those timelines or any macro implications there? And just any more color that you can give on that, I think, would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. The this is not the first time we've seen this, right, that we get some of this CHOP quarter to quarter. As I mentioned a couple of quarters ago, as we get into more of these large airport projects and we land more of those in our backlog, then a little bit of shift in timing month to month, quarter to quarter and those large jobs can affect your quarter to quarter chop, if you will, or flow. And that's kind of what we experienced in the quarter. Again, I think what we saw in the quarter that, that encourages us is the order intake continues to support the guidance that we have.

Speaker 2

It's continued to be positive growth versus prior year. And the activity, the bidding and the quoting activity from Armstrong in these categories continue to be robust. So I would just again describe it more as some of the normal moves in and out of the quarters in terms of timing of these larger projects is what we're experiencing.

Speaker 3

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then it sounds like you are getting some nice traction from the acquisitions that have come through in there. Can you talk a little bit more about 3 forms that you just announced?

Speaker 3

And just maybe any thoughts on the synergies, the margin profile today and how we should think about you getting that in line with the overall segment and maybe back towards that 20% target?

Speaker 2

Yes, absolutely. We're really excited about this acquisition. It is such a complementary product line to our existing product line with very little overlap, but it's highly specified by the same architects and industrial designers that we're working with and really opens up new spaces and new applications for these materials for Armstrong. So we're really excited about the complementary nature of the product line. And it's a very unique product line also in the fact that it's translucent material.

Speaker 2

We don't have translucent materials in our portfolio today. For some of the gaps that we've had, we've actually purchased products from 3 Form in the past to plug some of those gaps. So we know this company really well. We know their products really well. So I think from a standpoint of strengthening our position in the offices of architects and designers with an even broader, more complementary portfolio.

Speaker 2

We couldn't be more excited about that. It's a similar profile that we've seen in other Architectural Specialty Businesses. Susan, when you look at their scale and their profitability, we see some really good opportunities on both sides, the cost side, and leveraging the back office of Armstrong and doing more things on the Armstrong platform. So we see some good cost synergies there to improve the margin profile of this business. Again, similar to what we've seen in our previous acquisitions, as well as getting them into our distribution channel, into more of the architects' offices than they can afford to do today, leveraging the go to market machine that Armstrong has.

Speaker 2

So we see a very similar synergy profile. Obviously, this is a little bit larger deal than some of our other smaller deals, but the play that we're going to run is very similar and we expect a similar outcome in terms of getting this business to a 20% EBITDA performance level.

Speaker 3

Okay. All right. That's helpful. Thanks, Vic, and good luck with everything.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Garik Shmois with Loop Capital. Your line

Speaker 4

is open. Hi, thank you. Congrats on the quarter. Just wanted to follow-up on the transportation end markets that you cited. And just given the strong growth outlook moving forward, just wondering if you could speak maybe just how we should think about maybe the margin mix on those projects?

Speaker 4

Do you tend to get maybe a little bit more pushback given you're dealing with government agencies or is there no real difference on the margin component, especially if transportation might be an accelerating part of the architectural specialties piece moving forward?

Speaker 2

Well, I think the margin profile is really a function of the design and the material combination that architects are trying to spec into. So the more general, less custom, you obviously you have you're going to have more competition in some of those areas. So but in general, I think it's a mix of both. And so there's not a big departure on the margin profile for these projects that we've experienced thus far, with the ones that we've won. It's kind of right down the middle in terms of what we see across the business.

Speaker 2

They are more visible. So that is true. These are more visible projects. They're larger. So there's going to be more bidding.

Speaker 2

There's going to be more competition. Again, we're trying to make the unique design and bring the unique Armstrong portfolio to these designs to provide as much of an advantage as we can in these projects. So that's really that's the opportunity I think for us to make sure that we have an accretive margin profile in these larger jobs.

Speaker 4

Understood. My follow-up question is just actually a little bit more backward looking just on the Q1. If you can provide a little bit more color on just what the impact was from retail in the channel dynamics in Q1 of this year versus last year and what impact that had on AUV mix volume and margins?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, Garik, it's Chris. Yes. So from a volume perspective, the year over year comparison in the quarter was really all driven by that prior year retail dynamic in terms of the build there. And in terms of mix, I'd say mix was a little bit outsized in the quarter as a result of that too.

Speaker 2

Again, AUV up 8%, pretty fairly balanced between price and mix, but that mix benefit we saw in Q1 here this quarter was really largely driven by that year over year comp in retail.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thanks for that. Appreciate it. Best of luck. Sure.

Speaker 4

Goodbye.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten from Zelman and Associates. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hey guys, good morning. Just looking at

Speaker 6

the wave of equity earnings guidance implies about 3,000,000 dollars or so in year over year growth for the balance of the year. Was there some kind of one time benefit you saw in the Q1 that maybe isn't continuing for the rest of the year? Or maybe just why that outlook seems to be a bit less expansionary from an earnings perspective for the balance of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Adam, the don't know if you recall the steel dynamics have been very dynamic and volatile actually over the last 4 or 5 months. We've had to raise price twice as a result of that. And we normally get a little buy ahead of those price increases. I think we experienced a little bit more than we were expecting.

Speaker 2

So there is a little bit of timing there in terms of that volume normalizing its way out for the remainder of the year. So I'd really say we've got some good operating leverage there as a result of that as well. But I would really say it's more around a little bit of buy ahead on the volume side.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. That's helpful. And then just back to AS, it looks like the organic revenue numbers come down a little bit. Is that purely just timing or are there some kind of more permanent delays or even cancellations you're seeing out there?

Speaker 2

Yes, certainly no cancellations. This is there's definitely project delays. And again, back to my prior answer, I run the choppiness and that organic part of the business based on project timing is really the impact we saw in the Q1.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. Thanks. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes from Tervis. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Another question on Canopy. You had kind of called out again that it was additive to growth, covered up some of the weaker markets out there. Can you give us more detail of dollars of what that's doing or how big a role that's playing in the guidance for 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes, Keith, we haven't really talked about that publicly in terms of the actual dollars amount. But when you look at low single digit markets and together with our growth initiatives Canopy, Project Works and some of our healthy spaces initiatives, offsetting a large part of that, I think is probably the best we can do to help you size the impact of these initiatives. Really pleased with their traction and we continue to be reinforcing that we're over the right target with these initiatives.

Speaker 5

Absent those, I mean, would your volume be down mid single digits for the year?

Speaker 2

For the whole year, I think in that, that maybe the high low single digit area is probably as close to an answer I could give you, Keith.

Speaker 4

Okay. All right. Thank you. You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Yes, thanks very much guys. Appreciate all the info. I wanted to ask you a little bit about 3 form. Any sort of purchase accounting issues that we should be thinking about inventory write ups affecting near term profitability there? Does it have any kind of seasonality that we should be aware of?

Speaker 7

And I think you indicated that the route to market was, I guess, pretty similar, I'm guessing, to some of the other Architectural Specialties acquisitions. But given its size and its success, I was kind of thinking that maybe its presence in the market was superior to other acquisitions you've made. And so just wanted to see if you could give a little more context on the degree to which your distribution and breadth and power, how that is going to allow you to achieve basically be

Speaker 2

a better owner of the 3 form assets? Yes. Do you want to take the first one? Yes. Hi, Stephen.

Speaker 2

No items to call out here from a purchase accounting perspective. And to your second question on seasonality, yes, I mean for the rest of the year kind of expecting more of a smoother pattern of contribution from 3 form as it pertains to 2024. Yes. Stephen, you're right to call out. This is a well established company.

Speaker 2

We've known this company. We've done business with company for a long time. We've had our eye on this company for a long time because it's a high quality company and a high quality set of products. They do have a well established independent agent network that is highly respected and we plan to continue to leverage. But in addition to that though with the presence and the footprint that we have with our best in class distribution network, we know that we can bring some additional exposure and representation in the marketplace through that channel as well.

Speaker 2

So a very complementary nature is our initial thoughts going into this. But we definitely think we can bring something to a well established company in the marketplace. And Steve, maybe just one thing to highlight on the, on my previous comment that you've got 2 months of contribution here in the Q2 and then obviously 3 full months in Q3 and Q4 as you think about modeling out the rest of the year.

Speaker 7

Yes, that makes sense. Okay, great. And then lastly, on your cash flow adjustments, you call that Arctura, it's contributed about $14,000,000 of cash flow in the past 6 months. I was curious if you could give a little bit of background on that. I guess the former owners left, but if you can just provide a little bit of color on that?

Speaker 2

Yes. No additional color to provide there other than what we've disclosed on that aspect of our tourist unit.

Speaker 7

Bummer. All right. We'll follow-up with you later. Appreciate all the color though. Thanks guys.

Speaker 5

All right. Thank you, Amit.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo of UBS. Please ask your question.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. Good morning. This is actually Spencer Coffman on for John. Thank you for the questions. The first one, you guys mentioned that you're expecting slower economic growth in the second half relative to the first half.

Speaker 8

Is that just based on conservatism? Or are you seeing some signs of slowing out there and what could kind of change your view here recognizing the weak March ABI print?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, the outlook for the back half is, again, modestly softer market conditions and that's really a reflection of a lot of the indicators as well as the voice on the ground in the field. So, we're certainly not trying to be conservative here. I think we're trying to represent what we think is going to likely be generally overall slower economic activity in the back half, And that will likely impact discretionary spending, especially if there's some uncertainty about how long that lasts in the back half. So I think that, again, when you look at all the indicators, which are really fairly mixed at the moment, including the GDP number that you referenced and the ABI that you referenced, there's some mixed signals there that I think just reaffirm that we're likely to see a slower economic overall activity.

Speaker 2

And we think that's going to have a modest impact on the business in the back half.

Speaker 8

Right. Okay. Yes, that makes sense. In terms of input costs, I think you guys mentioned that you're now expecting that to be flat year over year. Just curious as to some of the puts and takes of that relative to your prior outlook.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. So for full year, we're expecting input costs to be about flat. It's really the energy deflation kind of offset by raw material inflation. So if I break that down a little bit for you for full year, we're expecting low single digit deflation in freight. On raws, we expect low single digit inflation on raw materials.

Speaker 2

And then energy, high single digit deflation, which kind of nets out to flat for the full year on inputs. And just a reminder, in terms of our COGS and inflation, raw materials are about 35%, freight's about 10% and energy is about 10 percent of our total COGS line there.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Really appreciate the color there.

Operator

Yes. Your next question comes from the line of Rafe Drosich from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow-up on the guidance and want to see if you can just walk us through a little bit more of the guidance raise. How much of it was 1Q upside, 3 form and then the change in the Mineral Fiber outlook? So guidance is raised by 15,000,000 dollars You said about half was 3 form and the other half was organic.

Speaker 9

Did your expectation for organic performance change for the 2Q to 4Q on that or is that organic change just 1Q performance?

Speaker 2

Hey, Rafe, it's Chris. So let me walk you through that. So the guidance range, Rafe, that you're referring to is on EBITDA. And so yes, about half of that is attributable to the contribution from the 3 Form acquisition. The other half, when we take a step back and look at input costs and the contributions from our Wave joint venture as previously mentioned, it's a combination of favorability, so deflation on the input side and really the outsized performance of Wave in Q1 that we expect a portion of that to stick for the rest of the year.

Speaker 2

So it's really looking forward for the rest of the year, looking at our Q1 performance and triangulating around those to inform the EBITDA raise.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just focusing on AS, excluding Bakken 3 Form, the 6% to 9% prior view for top line and then I think 19% margin, what does that look like today? Like would you have changed the AS guidance if you hadn't acquired the 3 form?

Speaker 2

Yes. So if I pull that apart a little bit in my prepared remarks, if you were to exclude the effect of 3 Form on the AS business for the year, the AS EBITDA margin would have expanded. So that from an organic perspective, you can see there's a dilutive effect of 3 forms here for 2024. And really the change in sales and EBITDA is attributable in to that 3 form acquisition.

Speaker 9

So the core outlook for AS is unchanged?

Speaker 2

Correct. That's correct. It's really all 3 form, primarily 3 form driven.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful.

Speaker 4

You're welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hi. Thank you for taking my question today. I just wanted to follow-up on free cash flow generation and then capital allocation for 2024. So in Q1, you had a nice year over year increase, up 46 percent with free cash generation, but most of it was driven by lower CapEx versus last year. As you look at capital deployment for the full year, how should we think about the cadence of CapEx versus dividends and share repurchases, which are lower this year and M and A activity?

Speaker 2

Yes. So on CapEx, you're right. A lot of the favorability in Q1 was due to the timing of CapEx. And I still expect CapEx to follow our kind of our historical patterns. I mean, we don't inform or guide on that quarterly, but you can see that our range has not changed, still in that $80,000,000 to $90,000,000 range for the year.

Speaker 2

In terms of dividends, so again $12,000,000 of dividends in the quarter. I'd just take a step back from an overall capital allocation perspective. Our priorities haven't changed. And we continue to look at returning cash to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases as our 3rd priority with share repurchases continuing to be a flex. You can see in the Q1, our share repos were softer than they have been and that's just evidence of the flexing of the share repurchase program opposite the 3 form acquisition here that was on deck as we entered the Q2.

Speaker 2

So no change to how we're thinking about it, no change to our strategy, but certainly a little bit of noise here in timing on adjusted free cash flow in Q1 as you pointed out.

Speaker 10

So is it fair to say that just for the balance broadly excluding any other significant acquisitions, roughly there shouldn't be any meaningful change year over year in terms of your capital allocation priorities?

Speaker 2

I think that's fair.

Speaker 10

Okay. And I know that the horse that horse has been beaten a bit on guidance. But from our perspective, what you've been saying about volumes today doesn't appear to be meaningfully different than what you said when you reported Q4 earnings. Am I missing anything? And has anything changed that perhaps is a little more nuanced than what you had said for Q4 earnings?

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Catherine. I think that's exactly right. We're communicating that there's nothing that we've seen in the market that has materially changed our outlook for the year, for the first half and for the back half and for the total year. The market seemed to be fairly stable at this point moving sideways if you will for the market that we've been experiencing for the last several quarters and all indicators say that we're probably on track for a little lower economic activity in the back half.

Speaker 2

So no change in our volume outlook. And again, even in this softer condition, we plan to do a really good job on productivity in our plants and growing our AUV, making sure that, we're more than covering inflation and expanding our margins. So, that's the play we ran in 2023. We ran it again in the Q1 and we plan to continue on that in 20 24. Thanks for that clarification.

Speaker 4

Thank you. You're welcome. Your

Operator

next question comes from Phil Ng from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, Vic. Thanks for the color around Catherine's question. I guess looking beyond the back half of 2024, if the ABI and Dodge start data softening a little bit this year And just given the lag in your business, is that a risk that could spill over to 2025 that we should be mindful of where volumes could take another step down or you've seen pretty good bidding activity, the hope is perhaps stabilization as you kind of look into 2025?

Speaker 2

Yes. The ABI is quite publicized, right? And we've said for a long time, API is a weak indicator for our business really. It but I will say even within that from a correlation standpoint, it's kind of a weak correlator. But even within that when you peel back the ABI, there's some mixed actually positives and negatives in that.

Speaker 2

And so we're not overly concerned about the ABI reading that came out in terms of our outlook for our business, not in 'twenty four and certainly not into 'twenty five. We'll keep an eye on it because it is an indicator. But we look at our bidding activity, the Dodge bidding activity in particular and looking at that across the verticals and of course in aggregate, as other indicators to look at the overall economic activity. And again, it was fairly flattish. So it's all kind of pointing to a very stabilized a more stabilized market moving forward.

Speaker 2

That's kind of what it feels like to us.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's really helpful. I guess a question for Chris. I think in your prepared remarks you said about 50% of the upside in EBITDA in your guide was 3 forms. Does that shake out roughly EBITDA margins in the 11% to 12% range?

Speaker 11

Just want to make sure I'm thinking about it correctly. And when you think about that business longer term, what's the growth profile under Armstrong's watch? And what are some of the applications that product is typically used in right now?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's a good question, Phil. Thanks. Yes. So looking at EBITDA margins in that low double digit range, is kind of how we think about that kind of initially.

Speaker 2

And then obviously, we've been able to demonstrate shareholder value creation through again, as Vic mentioned, through the integrating these acquisitions, bringing them onto the Armstrong platform and then driving additional value creation through top line and cost synergies. But to answer your question directly, yes, it's initially in that low double digit, margin, range.

Speaker 4

I was

Speaker 11

going to ask if Chris was going to miss the growth profile of this business and some of the applications that you used.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's similar. We think that the leverage opportunity, it's a little larger size, right? So, we think it's similar in terms of getting it exposed to more architects' offices and service through our distribution network. We think there's some real revenue synergies on that business as well.

Speaker 2

It's a well established business, right? So that's another, aspect of this business, which is a positive that we'll be looking to leverage as we bolt it onto the platform, the go to market platform of Armstrong.

Speaker 11

Okay. So we should largely think of it at pretty comparable from a growth standpoint to how your AS business is growing currently.

Speaker 2

And I guess That's correct.

Speaker 11

And since it's a larger deal for you, how quickly do you think you could bring some of these products on to your existing distribution relations? And is that and is there an opportunity to kind of leverage some of your products into the relationship they already have that you called out on the independent side of things?

Speaker 2

Yes. With their established network, there's reverse synergies as well with this well established network that they have. So we're going to be after it very quickly here. We're going to run the play that we've run at other these other acquisitions. There'll be a sense of urgency on the integration side to get everybody up to speed on each other's products.

Speaker 2

And yes, we have a team on the ground today, starting the process.

Speaker 4

Okay. Appreciate the color.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Phil. Thanks, Phil.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Vic Grizzle for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you all for joining our call today. We're obviously very excited about the start to the year and the markets that we're in and how we're operating in the markets that we're in. And we're extremely excited about the addition of 3 Form to our portfolio and what it can mean for the entire business model by having this additional portfolio to leverage. So thank you again.

Speaker 2

Look forward to updating you next quarter.

Operator

That concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Armstrong World Industries Q1 2024
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