RBC Bearings Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 17, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings and welcome to RBC Bearings Fiscal 20 24 4th Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Josh Carroll with Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings fiscal 2024 Q4 earnings conference call. With me on the call today are Doctor. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel Bergeron, Director, Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Rob Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Rob Mofat, Director of Investor Relations. Before beginning today's call, let me remind you that some of the statements made today will be forward looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors.

Speaker 1

We refer you to RBC Bearings' recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition. These factors are also described in greater detail in the press release and on the company's website. In addition, reconciliation between GAAP and non GAAP financial information is included as part of the release and is available on the company's website. With that, I will now turn the call over to Doctor. Hartman.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you and good morning everyone and thanks for joining us. I'm going to start today's call with a quick review of our quarter and fiscal year and hand it over to Rob for some detailed color on the numbers, And then I will finish with a high level thoughts on the industry and our fiscal 2025 outlook. In the Q4, we delivered a strong finish to what was historic year for RBC. Net sales came in at a higher end of our quarterly guidance range at $413,700,000 delivering roughly 5% of year over year growth, capping out a strong fiscal 2024 with revenues of $1,560,000,000 delivering growth of about 6.2% year over year.

Speaker 2

2024 was another year where 70% of our revenues were sold, single or primary sourced. That's a key component of our business profile and over half of our revenues continue to be from the maintenance and repair related side of the market. These offer attractive margins and non cyclical growth and obviously a continually growing installed base. In the Aerospace and Defense segment, we reached an important milestone with fiscal 2024 sales surpassing their pre COVID peak coming in at $519,000,000 for the year over year growth of 20.7%. We expect more growth to come in fiscal 'twenty five and beyond, but more on that later.

Speaker 2

With the segment within the segment, Commercial Aerospace was up 12.0% year over year in the quarter and 20.3% for the full year, full fiscal year, with defense revenues up 29% in the quarter and 21.6% for the full year. Additionally, growth in A and D was fairly balanced through the year with distribution and aftermarket sales up 23.4% and OEM sales up 20%. On the industrial side, trends remain flattish with 4th quarter sales down 0.4% and full year sales up 0.2%. Broadly speaking, aftermarket sales remained stronger than OEM in both periods and end markets continue to be mixed with some growing and others down. During the quarter, we saw strength in power generation, waste and water management, while weakness was seen in multi industry, aggregate, cement and oil and gas.

Speaker 2

Delivering strong organic growth relative to our peers is a key part of RBC's playbook and in fiscal 2025, 'twenty four that was no exception. Adjusted gross margins for the quarter came in at $178,300,000 or 43.1 percent of sales, an expansion of 90 basis points over fiscal 4Q 'twenty three. And for the full year, we came in at $670,500,000 or 43.0 percent of sales, an expansion of 180 basis points versus fiscal 2023 and a new all time record for RBC. Our success here is driven by multiple factors with ongoing synergies from Dodge from the Dodge acquisition being the biggest contributor, coupled with improving utilization of our aerospace asset base and an ongoing pursuit of growth in higher margin end markets. For comparison, our adjusted gross margin as a percentage of sales for FY for the Q3 of 'twenty two in the Q1 following Dodge acquisition was 37.6% compared to 43.1 percent exiting fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

That's a 550 basis point expansion on the gross margin line. At the time of the acquisition, we said we were targeting $75,000,000 to $100,000,000 of synergies over 5 years. We estimate that we have achieved somewhere between $70,000,000 $80,000,000 in just over 2 years since the closing with more to come. And you can add, we have already repaid $625,000,000 of term loan that was taken to make the acquisition. The Dodge transaction and what we have accomplished with Sjogland and Sargent acquisitions before that has been absolutely transformative for RBC.

Speaker 2

Over the past 5 years, net sales have gone from roughly $700,000,000 to over 1,560,000,000 dollars growing at a 17.3 percent CAGR. And even more impressive is EBITDA, which has grown 19.8% CAGR and free cash flow, which is compounded at an amazing 29.2% CAGR over the past 5 years. I'd like to use this opportunity to express how proud I am of the team for delivering this kind of performance along with yet another year of strong operating results in fiscal 2024 and for creating much of our own success with company specific roles and margin focused initiatives. We have a lot to be proud of in what's been accomplished. And as always, we will be aiming a little higher in the upcoming year.

Speaker 2

With that, I will turn it over to Rob for more details on the financial results.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Mike. As Doctor. Hartnett indicated, fiscal 2024 was another year of strong organic growth in Aerospace, continued growth over markets industrial business. Total sales growth of 4.9% in the quarter and 6.2% in the full year was surpassed by adjusted EBITDA growth of 7.4% in the quarter and 11.1% in the year and by free cash flow growth of 18.4% in the quarter and 35.1% for the full year. This was enabled in part by solid progress on gross margin expansion with 4th quarter gross margin as a percentage of sales coming in at 43.1%, an expansion of roughly 90 basis points year over year and the full year coming in at 43%, an increase of roughly 180 basis points.

Speaker 3

Strength on the gross margin line was derived from the Dodge synergies, increased utilization of our aerospace assets and our ongoing pursuit of higher margin mix. We leveraged the healthy operating environment to make additional investments in SG and A aimed at positioning the business for continued growth. This includes investments in our IT infrastructure and our overall headcount, including sales force and back office personnel that should enable the company to be able to secure and process higher volumes of orders in fiscal 'twenty five and beyond. Even with the SG and A investments, adjusted EBITDA margins expanded with the fiscal 4th quarter coming in at 31.4%, an expansion of roughly 70 basis points year over year and fiscal 'twenty four coming in at an all time record of 30.9%, an expansion of nearly 140 basis points. This is the first time our full year adjusted EBITDA margin crossed the 30% mark and based on what we see for fiscal 'twenty five and beyond, should serve as a base for additional expansion.

Speaker 3

In terms of EPS, there seems to be a bit of confusion this morning on tax in the quarter. Although our effective GAAP tax rate was 16.8 percent for Q4, the effective tax rate for our adjusted net income and adjusted EPS is 21.2%. This is reflected in the reconciliation within the press release. I call this out because it's important to note that the strength of our performance in Q4 was primarily driven by our operating performance. Free cash flow also outgrew the top line with $69,900,000 generated in the quarter, delivering growth of 18.4% year over year and $241,500,000 for the full year, representing 35.1% of year over year growth in free cash flow conversion of 115%.

Speaker 3

We used that free cash flow to continue to reduce debt from the Todd's acquisition, paying down $225,000,000 on the term loan, coming in at the high end of our internal target for the year. This brings total net debt to $1,100,000,000 and net leverage to 2.3 times on a trailing basis. One item that you will want to take into account for your models in 15.25 is the planned conversion of our Series A inventory convertible preferred stock expected to automatically convert on October 15, 2024. Using Q4 results as an approximation, the net impact of this conversion is expected to be slightly accretive to EPS, assuming conversion at the current share price. It will be more meaningfully accretive, however, to free cash flow, as the conversion will remove the cash dividend payment, reducing our future total cash outlays by approximately $23,000,000 on an annualized basis.

Speaker 3

This is roughly 9.5% of fiscal 20 24's total cash flow. Importantly, the removal of this cash can further accelerate the pace at which we are reducing the term loan. Altogether, the combination of healthy growth, margin expansion, solid cash generation and continued debt reduction capped off a strong fiscal 2024 and leaves the company well positioned heading into fiscal 'twenty five and beyond. With that, I will now turn the call back to Mike for some closing thoughts.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you, Rob. Before we turn the call over to Q and A, I wanted to spend some time on our outlook and how we are thinking about fiscal 'twenty five. To start, we are guiding 1st fiscal quarter net sales to $415,000,000 to 4.20 $1,000,000 representing year over year growth of 7.2% to 8.5%. This outlook largely reflects an environment that's similar to the past quarter where demand in A and D is strong and industrial end markets are uneven.

Speaker 2

With some markets stronger and others softer and overall industrial demand supported more by aftermarket sales than OEM. In terms of the full year, our outlook for commercial aerospace remains positive. Passenger miles traveled are back above pre pandemic levels and continue to grow, driving plane utilization levels up and retirements down. New plane demand remains robust and continues to be throttled by supply chain shortages. As I've said before, the only constraint in commercial aerospace right now is not demand, but it's supply.

Speaker 2

On the OEM side, I'm sure many of you have been following the headlines and build rates at Boeing lately. Over the long term, I'm confident that Boeing will successfully navigate the current challenges it's facing and emerge stronger by the end of 2024. We believe that headwind, however, can be mitigated in the short term by stronger than expected requirements from other markets, including international airframe producers, space, defense and the aftermarket. As for RBC, we fully expect Boeing requirements to rebound by mid Q3, remembering our products are needed approximately 6 months before airplane is assembled and industry lead times are typically 50 to 60 weeks for our products depending upon material composition. Altogether, this points expected to be up low double digits in fiscal 'twenty five on top of fiscal 'twenty four's record base.

Speaker 2

It will likely be back ended back end loaded. I think that's probably obvious. On the industrial side, we believe some tough comps we've seen in pockets of the OEM business should start to abate as we progress through the year and aftermarket should continue to grow. What's important here is the growth over market. We believe the combination of our ongoing organic sales initiatives coupled with the our Dodge revenue synergies should continue to grow growth and our target of 2x GDP is still our target for FY 'twenty five.

Speaker 2

In terms of gross margin, I mentioned earlier, we made tremendous amount of progress in fiscal 'twenty four and are well ahead of schedule on the Dodge synergies. Going forward, we expect higher mix of Dodge synergies to be derived from revenue growth as we continue to work to integrate the sales effort and drive new product development. With that in mind, we expect 50 to 75 basis points of gross margin expansion in fiscal 'twenty five, driven by a combination of moderating Dodge tailwinds, ongoing absorption of our aerospace capacity and higher margin new products being introduced to the market. Altogether, this paints a picture of another year of strong free cash flow generation, setting the stage for term loan reduction of another $275,000,000 to $300,000,000 leaving us on track for our 5 year goal of fully repaying the debt generated from the Dodge acquisition. Our current net leverage is 2.3 times on a trailing basis and even lower on a forward basis, and that's before the $275,000,000 to $300,000,000 of further debt reduction planned for fiscal 'twenty 5.

Speaker 2

This leaves us well positioned to more seriously evaluate M and A opportunities and the team has been active in growing that pipeline. We expect at our current rate to be well under 2 times EBITDA by the end of FY 'twenty five. Our principal bias here is to manage the company towards a balanced mix of aerospace and defense and industrial end market exposure over the long term. To conclude, fiscal 2024 was a record year for RBC. We delivered another year of solid growth.

Speaker 2

It was fully further mitigated by margin expansion or magnified by margin expansion and strong free cash flow conversion. We are ahead of schedule on our Dodge synergies, and we are on track for our deleveraging and return to acquisitive growth. We look forward to fiscal 'twenty five and we expect more of the same. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. Today's first question is coming from Christine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks for all the details. Mike, you touched on the Dodge revenue synergies in your prepared commentary. Can you provide more color on how that strategy is going? How the integration of your 2 sales team have been progressing? I think from what I recall, Dodge has something like 10x the salespeople's legacy RBC bearings.

Speaker 4

I'm not sure if that's still the case today, but how would this be implemented? And when you start measuring results, what kind of revenue synergy target do you think you can extract from

Speaker 2

this? I guess my 2 times GDP growth was just too simple, Christine?

Speaker 4

Well, Mike, 2 times GDP growth for legacy RBC Bearings had historically been your target. So I was thinking that our revenue synergy from the deal would be incremental.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, I think there's good revenue synergy here for a number of there's a lot in the mix right now in terms of revenue synergy options that are being developed. And part of that mix is accessing more of the world market that for Dodge. And obviously, RBC will ride on Dodge's coattails. And we're particularly focused on Europe and India and Mexico and Canada.

Speaker 2

And we see opportunities in all those areas for Dodge in 'twenty five. And if there's opportunities for Dodge, as I said, RBC should follow right through on the coattails. So that's those are pretty active initiatives that we have underway currently focused on these different foreign countries based upon their markets and what we do in these markets and what we can offer to these markets and how we can better develop jointly between Dodge and RBC, our market access. If we take India as an example, India, we have a great amount of infrastructure in India that allows us to have things manufactured there, to move things around the country, to import and export, which requires a certain infrastructure that has some sophistication to it. But at the same time, we see our many of our aerospace customers moving to India for economic reasons and it allows us better access through the Dodge sales force to the Indian Aerospace customer base.

Speaker 2

And we expect to grow that customer base from somewhere less than $10,000,000 a year today to certainly in the $30,000,000 to $40,000,000 per year in the next few years. It's very meaningful. So, and that's just one example of maybe in aerospace and industrial synergy ongoing based upon the support created by the Dodge infrastructure.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you for the color, Mike. And if I could take a second question maybe on cost. When you've talked about like the footprint of Dodge Manufacturing, you've talked about in the past how it's still mostly U. S.

Speaker 4

Based, but you've talked about in the past how it's still mostly U. S. Based, but there's opportunity to move some to low cost countries while keeping the higher value things in the U. S. Can you give any progress in terms of where you are in terms of that initiative?

Speaker 4

And when everything is completed as you've planned in the next 12 or 24 months, how much more margin do you think you can get from a lower cost structure?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, we just completed building a plant in Tecate, Mexico for Dodge, basically. It's about 100,000 square feet, and it allows us to move some of Dodge's U. S. Manufacturing into Mexico and free up some of the floor space in some of the Dodge plants for product expansion because they are constrained in the Dodge plants based upon floor space and based upon their supply chain.

Speaker 2

So we're our plan is to and actually it's more than a plan now. We've capitalized it and we have things moving around. And if you're on Interstate 10 this weekend, you can watch our trucks go by. But we expect that's going to allow us to expand some of Dodge's product offering in terms of volume that was that they were unable to achieve in the past. So that's going to not only fund growth, but also move existing product into a low cost country.

Speaker 2

And so that's sort of the first step of the effort. And obviously, you don't build 100,000 square foot plant overnight. So this has been in the planning for the last 18 months and we're we'll be in production in Tecate with the 1st round of products by July.

Speaker 4

Great. Well, I will keep an eye out for RBC Trucks in Kanam and Interstate 10. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Pete Skibitski of Alembic Global. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, guys. Hope you're doing well.

Speaker 6

Good morning, Pete.

Speaker 5

Let me start, I thought one of the things that stood out was the backlog growth sequentially and year over year was really nice to see that. Was that what we should think of mostly commercial aerospace, longer term commercial aerospace orders coming in?

Speaker 2

Well, aerospace and marine, I mean, that's probably heavily in aerospace and marine. Is there some of that is industrial, it's probably eighty-twenty kind of a thing. Obviously, very little of Dodge's backlog is represented there. It's just it's not their business model. They what's ordered by customers for Dodge is usually shipped within the same day or within 2 or 3 days depending upon the product.

Speaker 2

So, it never gets a chance to hit backlog. So, that's 50% of our sales.

Speaker 5

Yes. Okay. Okay, that's helpful. And then just your guidance for the Q1, that would be a reacceleration of sales, right? You were kind of in that 4% to 6% range the last three quarters.

Speaker 5

Now you're talking close to 8%. I imagine the backlog doesn't hurt with regard to visibility there, but could you talk to us about what you're seeing in this Q1 versus the prior three quarters to kind of lead you to believe that sales are going to reaccelerate?

Speaker 2

Well, we're seeing great bookings. There's particularly in A and D, I mean it's very good. I don't think the Boeing 737 build out, the step down in their production rate is reflected in that quarter. I think it's going to be reflected in the 2nd quarter. But it isn't reflected in the Q1 at all.

Speaker 5

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. That was a little confusing. Yes, so I was going to ask you in terms of the changes to Boeing's master schedule and how it's impacting you. And I know they've tried to keep a lot of suppliers at at a roughly 30 a month rate, I think, on the MAX, but it sounds like maybe you guys are going to go below that for a quarter or 2 and then rise back up.

Speaker 5

Is that the way to think about it?

Speaker 2

Well, the way I think about it is, if you look at Boeing's production rate now and where they have to be and of course the 38 ships per month is sort of the magic number, right? And they're talking about 20, 25 ships a month right now, maybe 30. So by next April, we're certainly expecting them to be healthy enough to be assembling 38 ships a month. And given that, that means for our product, we have to produce it, we have to ship it in October. And if we have to ship it in October, we have to start making it in July.

Speaker 2

So we are not going to we are going to be making it probably not shipping at a great rate, probably a reduced rate based upon relative to the Q1. But I suspect the year will step up after our Q2, which is September ending, right? I suspect every quarter now will step up to match their assembly rate in beginning in April. Maybe they pull that in. But I think they know it has to be done.

Speaker 2

Everything is in their wheelhouse. There is no new rockets have to be invented. It's all basic execution and they are smart, qualified, capable people. They will get this done.

Speaker 5

Yes. Yes. And I appreciate it. Last one for me. Defense growth was pretty incredible this year.

Speaker 5

Is that mostly marine, the submarines or anything else driving that? And then I just got the feel that maybe you're expecting another potentially I can't remember if you said double digit growth in defense as well as commercial, but it sounds like the strength is going to continue.

Speaker 2

Yes. Defense is going to continue. But right now, for certain, we're constrained by able being able to produce enough defense products overall. And so we're working hard to bring up our rates. And so that's dependent upon labor, material availability, supply chain and other qualifications.

Speaker 2

So we're doing a great job bringing up certain rates at in the sort of the mid teens kind of a rate year to year, sometimes a little bit more than that. And in some areas, we have to continue that for the next 3 or 4 years to get to the to get balanced with demand. So some of our defense and that's particularly in the marine area. It's very strong. Other areas like obviously with what's going on in Ukraine and now everybody wants all the foreign countries want a joint strike fighter.

Speaker 2

So that's an important platform for us. So we're going to we're seeing more demand coming from Lockheed on those kinds of programs. The long range bomber is active and demanding and that's we're in the middle of that program. So yes, marine and airframe are really, really good for us. Guided munitions is another area that's extremely strong, whether it's ground to ground like that HIMAR system or it's shoulder mounted or it's a ballistic interceptor.

Speaker 2

We're on all those programs. And right now, there's a lot of replacement demand for Ukraine and there's also demand to fortify U. S. Arsenals. So I don't see that ending anytime soon.

Speaker 2

Maybe the Ukraine thing gets solved in the intermediate term. But in the longer term, these U. S. Arsenals were not deep enough. Everybody recognizes that, including the Chinese.

Speaker 2

That's why they're building out their arsenals. They're not going to do anything with Taiwan until they their arsenals are built up the way they feel comfortable. So this is going to this is a long term cycle event.

Speaker 5

Yes. No, I appreciate it. It's great color. Appreciate it, Mike. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Steve Barger of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Hey, Steve. Hello, Steve.

Speaker 7

Hello. Mike, as you talked about accessing more world markets for Dodge, is that all organic channel development or would you think about geographic acquisitions to accelerate that process?

Speaker 2

Yes, we would think of both. I mean, the but it's organic. I think it's primarily organic. If there was an acquisition that would accelerate the process, it we'd consider it, but it's right now, it's pretty much using the assets that we already have more effectively and sort of building out the teams. It's a what has to be done there is very achievable, very achievable.

Speaker 2

And so it's a matter of paying attention to what's going on in Europe, spending more time with the foreign nationals at these various sites making sure that they're well integrated with the RBC and Dodge missions. And so before we acquired Dodge, Dodge really didn't have access to these markets. They had access through ABB, their previous owner and ABB sort of didn't pay a great amount of attention to the mechanical side of their world. And so these languished and atrophied. And now we're pleasantly surprised that we have these footprints in active and productive areas of the world that we can spool up.

Speaker 2

And so we are in the process of spooling them up.

Speaker 7

And when you talk about, I think you said Europe, India, Mexico, Canada, as you start to make a more directed push in that direction, are you competing against other global bearings manufacturers or is it more against locals? And I'm just trying to get a sense for what the market share opportunity is as you do focus in that direction?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, it's the global bearing manufacturers, if it's bearings. It's sort of the global gearbox manufacturers, if it's gearbox. In a lot of cases for aerospace and defense, it's particularly aerospace, it's a matter of following your customer to these remote sites and being able to service these requirements effectively. And so if you have the footprint to follow him and to service him, you're well ahead of anybody else.

Speaker 7

Yes. Got it. And then given all the funding visibility out there from the government for big projects, It's interesting that aggregates and cement are weak. Is this a destock or what are your customers telling you and how do you think that unfolds for the back half of the calendar year?

Speaker 2

Well, I think you know as much about that as I do, Steve. The aggregate and cement business is pretty much correlated almost perfectly with housing starts. So when housing starts are up, that business is very strong. And when housing starts are not up, that business is not so strong. So, in housing starts, it's all about mortgage rates, right?

Speaker 2

So, yes, I mean, it's when you read the research on Vulcan or Martin Marietta or the people that are in this world, and the investment analysts correlate housing starts with demand for their business volumes, it's amazingly correlated. I mean, it's like an R square of 95 or something. It's 1 on 1. So, yes, so we look at housing starts. I don't think the infrastructure bill has really impacted anything at this point.

Speaker 2

I mean, there's people that talk about it here and there, but it has not had any macro influence to this date that I can put my finger on.

Speaker 7

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

Operator

The next question is coming from Michael Ciarmoli of Churro Securities.

Speaker 1

Taking my questions. Good morning.

Speaker 6

Hey, question, not to nitpick, I know you just talked about the aggregates, but I think the prior view for Q4 was for industrial to maybe grow year over year a few points that obviously came up a little bit light. What was was it the aggregates in cement? I know in the earlier prepared commentary you gave some of that end market with power gen waste. Did anything turn unexpectedly weak?

Speaker 7

Was it just that aggregate?

Speaker 3

I think you flagged oil

Speaker 6

and Well,

Speaker 2

I think, first of all, what we Well, I think first of all, what we did one of the things we didn't talk about was last year, we had Dodge did have backlog.

Speaker 6

And

Speaker 2

that backlog was supply chain driven. And so last year's Q4 that backlog sort of supercharged the sales number as it was liberated? Was about

Speaker 3

a $10,000,000 impact.

Speaker 2

Okay. So by about $10,000,000 Okay. So that was the difference. So this year, supply chain is normalized. They don't have these kinds of backlogs anymore.

Speaker 2

And so it's not it's a hard comp. It's a hard comp for them.

Speaker 6

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. That makes sense. And then just back on to 'twenty five, I want to make sure I heard it.

Speaker 6

Did you say low double digit growth for aero defense combined? And is there a expected parse out between commercial aero and defense in that view?

Speaker 2

There is no parse out, but yes, it's combined. And we're just trying to figure out this Boeing thing and we had all of our plans around a different build rate for the ships. And so now we're reevaluating those plans and determining what we should bring in, in terms of additional business to offset any of the losses. And so that's sort of ongoing.

Speaker 6

Got it.

Speaker 2

It's not going to be a normal year in terms of assuming Boeing gets to their gets their problem solved and gets to their where they need to be like in the upper 50s in terms of 7.37 rates per year. I mean, they got a 10 year backlog on this stuff. So they got to giddy up. So they got to get this problem behind them. So assuming they get into that kind of a mode again, And I don't think they have a choice.

Speaker 2

They have to get into that. They have to get this behind them. We will be back up into the high teens again.

Speaker 6

Yes. Okay. And then just maybe on that as well. I mean, you talked about 50 to 75 basis points of gross margin expansion with that ongoing absorption in aero. Is that kind of taken into your commentary there?

Speaker 6

Should we expect the margin expansion being a little bit more back end loaded in 'twenty five as you kind of get clarity from Boeing? Okay. And then that would imply maybe a really strong Q4, especially as the $5,800,000 of preferreds drop off. So just from a modeling, I mean, is that kind of how we should think about the year?

Speaker 2

You're on the right track there.

Speaker 6

Okay, very good. Last one I had, any sounds like leverage is going to come down. Any big appetite for more M and A out there? I mean Dodge has seemingly been a home run and is still driving value creation. So what's the appetite for another deal?

Speaker 2

Well, the appetite is good, but the appetite is picky.

Speaker 6

Got it. Got it. All right, guys. I'll leave it at that. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe. My first question is just on revenue seasonality. Looks like this time your first quarter revenue would be better than where 4th quarter ended. As you think about gross profit and EBIT dollars, should that be sequentially better also on higher sales or is there something else we should keep in mind?

Speaker 3

I think as Mike just kind of spoke to regarding margin, we think that overall margin expansion we discussed is really back loaded. It's lumpy throughout the year. We'll continue to invest in a bit of SG and A in fiscal 'twenty five. So, we're expecting continued strong performance.

Speaker 8

Understood. And just a high level question, your EBITDA margin this quarter at 31.4%, very impressive. Just as we think about the long term, what kind of margin target long term you have in mind? And then outside of aero volume recovery and some dot synergies, is there anything like improvement in terms of the base business that could further aid that margin expansion?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, it's there's no end. I think there's still it's how can I say that? It's really 1 by 1 kind of a project in terms of manufacturing technology and identifying on the Pareto, where are your lower margin performers and what if anything does the world provide in terms of technology to reduce labor or improve material costs or reduce scrap that would accrue to better margin performance. And so we have active programs with all of our plants that we review every month and we look at the Pareto and we look at what generates the revenue and what could be done to improve the operating performance of that particular line item and what the options manufacturing options might be for improvement that would benefit the overall margin of the line.

Speaker 2

So it's a matter of putting the time investment with all of the divisions 1 by 1 to create a program of improvement that accrues to a higher consolidated margin. And that's what RBC is really good at and that's what we've done since I started the job 30 years ago and we haven't started we haven't stopped yet. So, yeah, I mean, come on over to one of our plants and we will show you how it's how we do that.

Speaker 8

That sounds great. Yes. Just last question on free cash flow. How should we think about free cash flow in 2025? And from a working capital standpoint, maybe just talk about what improvements are you baking in for the coming year?

Speaker 3

Yes. So as Mike just referenced, ultimately we're looking to delever by another 275,000,000 to 300,000,000 dollars So we're going to have to generate some healthy free cash flow to do that. We're always targeting over 100% conversion on net income, 115% this year. So we'll continue to drive that. Within the working capital section, as we look to the long term, which is important to do, we always are strategically looking at our inventory levels, making sure that we're prepared to strike and deliver to our customers as needed.

Speaker 3

So there's potential for a little bit of investment in that side, especially in aerospace. We'll continue to manage the remainder of the working capital along the way.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Jordan Leerink of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking the question.

Speaker 3

No problem.

Speaker 9

Last quarter you guys said on the 787, you're going to step up to 7 a month in April, and it would be an important shift. Are you still producing at or still planning to produce at 7 a month? Like we saw spirits cutting headcount and Boeing also just cut. So could you give any more color for the wide bodies?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, we're staying at 5 a month. Okay.

Speaker 9

And then also too, so for the aero guide, how much if there's still all of the production uncertainty, how much do you guys are looking at the guide of how much you can make up in terms of pricing or just defense accelerating to make up for the commercial side?

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, in terms of mitigating, how are we going to mitigate the shortfall there for Boeing for

Speaker 6

a while?

Speaker 9

Yes, yes. Just that I do your stay.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think we have a quarter or 2 of the Boeing effect. I think given a quarter or 2, I mean, the maximum impact on revenues, if we didn't do any mitigation, it would be 20,000,000 dollars over 2 quarters, dollars 10,000,000 would be sort of the minimum if we did no mitigation over 2 quarters. So it's a it's sort of an achievable number. And when I look at some of the markets that we've been servicing, I mean particularly, we talked about how strong defense is and how much we can realign our schedules to bring some of that defense production in into earlier quarters, which is what's happening right now to for some of the mitigation. But on the other hand, a few years ago, we started working in space.

Speaker 2

And in 2024, we shipped $20,000,000 into the space world. And so our business on space products is accelerating. We see that getting to $40,000,000 and we see that probably getting to $30,000,000 this year. So space is starting to become a significant component of our A and D sales. So that's part of the mitigation.

Speaker 2

Defense is part of the mitigation and increasing our spares sales is another part of the mitigation. So we have what do we have? Maybe half a dozen significant divisions that are working on various mitigation techniques, products to offset any shortfall of the for the in the Q2 that we might see from the Boeing production reduction. And I suspect they'll get a long way towards the goal.

Speaker 9

Great. That's really helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Doctor. Hartnett for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, thank you. Well, that completes our call for today. And I appreciate everybody participating and listening to our presentation. Obviously, we've delivered another year of solid growth and great cash flow conversion.

Speaker 2

And we look forward to talking to you again in July.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or lock off the webcast at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

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Earnings Conference Call
RBC Bearings Q4 2024
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