NYSE:AFG American Financial Group Q1 2024 Earnings Report $126.39 -2.74 (-2.12%) Closing price 04/25/2025 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$126.45 +0.06 (+0.05%) As of 04/25/2025 04:17 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast American Financial Group EPS ResultsActual EPS$2.76Consensus EPS $2.70Beat/MissBeat by +$0.06One Year Ago EPS$2.89American Financial Group Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$1.91 billionExpected Revenue$1.89 billionBeat/MissBeat by +$20.48 millionYoY Revenue GrowthN/AAmerican Financial Group Announcement DetailsQuarterQ1 2024Date5/2/2024TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateThursday, May 2, 2024Conference Call Time11:30AM ETUpcoming EarningsAmerican Financial Group's Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Tuesday, May 6, 2025, with a conference call scheduled on Wednesday, May 7, 2025 at 11:30 AM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by American Financial Group Q1 2024 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrMay 2, 2024 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by, and welcome to American Financial Group's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call over to Diane Weidner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:33Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's Q1 2024 earnings results conference call. We released our 2024 Q1 results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call. Speaker 100:00:55I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, co CEOs of American Financial Group and Brian Hertzmann, AFG's CFO. Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on Slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. Speaker 100:01:30We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy. And as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements. Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results. Speaker 200:02:01Good morning. I'll begin my remarks by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2024 Q1, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. I will then open it up for Q and A where Craig, Brian and I will respond to your questions. AFG's financial performance during the Q1 was excellent. In addition to producing an annualized first quarter operating return on equity of 20%, net written premiums grew by 8% year over year. Speaker 200:02:29Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy and astute team with in house investment professionals collectively have enabled us to outperform many of our peers over time. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results. I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of the details. Speaker 300:02:57Thanks, Carl. Please turn to Slides 34 for a summary of earnings information for the quarter. AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.76 per share in the 2024 Q1. The year over year decrease reflects lower returns in AFG's alternative investment portfolio when compared to the very strong performance of this portfolio in the prior year period. Now I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance, financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity. Speaker 300:03:36The details surrounding our $15,300,000,000 investment portfolio are presented on Slides 56. Looking at results for the Q1, property and casualty net investment income was approximately 1% lower than the comparable 2023 period. Excluding the impact of alternative investments, net investment income in our P and C Insurance operations for the 3 months ended March 31, 20 24 increased by 16% year over year as a result of the impact of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets. As you'll see on Slide 6, approximately 68% of our portfolio invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 6%. Speaker 300:04:33Current reinvestment rates compare favorably to the nearly 5% yield earned on fixed maturities in our P and C portfolio during the Q1 of 2024. The duration of our P and C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents was 2.9 years at March 31, 2024. We've strategically managed duration to take advantage of market opportunities as interest rates have increased from recent historic lows. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P and C portfolio was approximately 9% for the 2024 Q1 compared to 14.2% for the prior year quarter. Strong returns related to our traditional private equity portfolio were offset by lower returns on investments tied to multifamily housing, which represent about half of our alternative investment portfolio and where we continue to experience headwinds from the impact of increased supply and the leveling out of rental rates on these investments. Speaker 300:05:44We expect these headwinds may continue throughout the remainder of 2024. Longer term, we remain optimistic regarding the prospects of our investments in multifamily housing as these properties continue to generate strong net operating income and have desirable geographic positioning and high occupancy rates. The average return average annual return on alternative investments over the 5 calendar years ended December 31, 2023 was approximately 13%. Please turn to Slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at March 31, 2024. During the quarter, we returned $269,000,000 to our shareholders through the payment of our regular $0.71 per share quarterly dividend as well as a $2.5 per share special dividend. Speaker 300:06:41We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2024, which provides ample opportunity for additional special dividends or share repurchases over the next year. We continue to view total value creation as measured by growth and book value plus dividends is an important measure of performance over the long term. For the 3 months ended March 31, 2024, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 5.1%. I'll now turn the call back over to Carl to discuss the results of our P and C operations. Speaker 200:07:24Thank you, Craig. Please turn to Slides 89 of the webcast, which include an overview of our Q1 results. As you'll see on Slide 8, our specialty property and casualty insurance businesses generated a strong 90.1 combined ratio in the Q1 of 2024, about a point higher than the 89.2 reported in the Q1 of last year. Results for the 2024 Q1 included 2.3 points of the catastrophe losses compared to 2.2 points in last year's Q1 and 3.3 points of favorable prior year reserve development compared to 4.5 points in the Q1 of 2023. Q1 2024 gross and net written premiums were both up 8% when compared to the same period last year. Speaker 200:08:12Year over year growth was reported within each of the specialty property and casualty groups as a result of additional crop premiums from Crop Risk Services acquisition, new business opportunities, increased exposures and a good renewal rate environment. Along those lines, average renewal pricing across our property and casualty group excluding our workers' comp businesses was up 8% for the quarter, accelerating about 1% from the previous quarter. Including workers' compensation, renewal rates were up 6% overall, in line with the previous quarter. This is our 31st consecutive quarter to report overall renewal rate increases and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns. In addition to renewal pricing, we continue to focus on insured values in our property related businesses to ensure that our premiums reflect inflationary considerations. Speaker 200:09:16Now I'd like to turn to Slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty Business Groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on our summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved an 89 calendar year combined ratio overall in the first quarter of 2024, an improvement of 2 points from the 91 reported in the comparable 2023 period. Q1 2024 gross and net written premiums in this group were 10% and 7% higher respectively than the comparable prior year period. Additional crop premium associated with the CRS acquisition as well as new business opportunities, a favorable rate environment and strong account retentions in our commercial auto and ocean marine businesses were the primary drivers of the increase in premiums. Speaker 200:10:11Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 9% on average in the Q1 of 2024, an increase of about 2 points from the previous quarter. And I'm particularly pleased with renewal rates achieved in our commercial auto liability line of business where rates were up 21%. The businesses in our specialty casualty group achieved a strong 89.8 calendar year combined ratio in the Q1 of 2024, 2.3 points higher than the 87.5 percent reported in the comparable period last year. Cat losses added 2.2 points to the Specialty Casualty Group, Q1 2024 combined ratio and were the result of a winter storm that affected a large social services account in the northwestern part of the country. I'm particularly pleased with the continued very strong underwriting margins in our executive liability and workers' comp businesses. Speaker 200:11:121st quarter 2024 gross and net rent premiums increased 3% 4%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. While most of the businesses in this group reported premium growth during the Q1, the higher year over year premiums resulted primarily from the growth in our excess and surplus wines and excess liability businesses as a result of rate increases and new business opportunities. Higher rates, strong account retention and new business opportunities in several of our targeted markets businesses contributed to the year over year growth to a lesser extent. Now renewal pricing for this group, excluding our workers' comp businesses, was up approximately 8% in the Q1 and was up about 5% overall, with both measures up about 1% from the renewal pricing in the previous quarter. I'm particularly pleased that we achieved renewal rate increases in excess of 10% in several of our social inflation exposed businesses during the quarter, including our public entity, social services and excess liability businesses. Speaker 200:12:23The Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an 86 point 3 percent combined ratio for the Q1 of 2024, a slight improvement from the comparable period in 2023. Q1 2024 gross and net written premiums were up 26% 27%, respectively, when compared to the same 2023 period. While most businesses in this group reported year over year growth, our financial institutions business was the primary driver of the higher premiums, representing a continuation of the growth we reported in both of our lender placed and residential investor business products in the second half of twenty twenty three. Renewal pricing in this group was up approximately 7% in the Q1. Craig and I are pleased to report these strong results for the Q1 and we're proud of our proven track record of long term value creation. Speaker 200:13:23Our insurance professionals have exercised their specialty property and casualty knowledge and experience to skillfully navigate the marketplace. And our in house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $15,000,000,000 investment portfolio. We're well positioned to continue to build long term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2024 and beyond. We'll now open the lines for the Q and A portion of today's call. And Craig and Brian and I would be happy to respond to your questions. Speaker 200:13:57Thank Operator00:14:04you. Our first question comes from the line of Charlie Lederer of Citigroup. Your question please, Charlie. Speaker 400:14:22Thank you. Good morning. Wondering if you guys can share more about the reserve development in the quarter, I guess specifically in Specialty Financial and Specialty Casualty, just Financial and Specialty Casualty, just the kind of the moving pieces there? Thanks. Speaker 500:14:41Hi, Charlie. This is Brian. So to talk about the casualty segment first, there's a few things going on there. First of all, we did continue to see favorable development coming out of our workers' comp business as well as lower severity in our executive liability business. Offsetting that is some increased severity in our excess liability businesses and some increased severity in the social services businesses. Speaker 500:15:13When Carl mentioned the lower profitability in the social services businesses, that's coming through prior year development and it's just on a number a few claims there. Well, we don't comment on specific claims. It is over a couple of Speaker 300:15:30the more recent accident years. Speaker 500:15:34And then in the financial group, there's a small amount of adverse development there and that's related to our innovative markets business where we're seeing a little bit of increased severity there. The Innovative Markets business includes some coverages related to complex intellectual property. Got it. Okay. And I Speaker 400:16:01guess that's helpful. I guess just on the commercial auto liability pricing increase, if I heard that, that kind of jumped off the page at 21%. I guess, what does that compare to in the Q4? And how should we think about that earning through and impacting your underlying margins in property and transportation as the year goes on? Speaker 200:16:29I definitely think it's a very positive result. I believe for all of 2023, it was around 11%, but I believe the Q4 jumped up to around 15% or so. So I definitely like the trend. It's our goal. We have solid underwriting performance for our overall commercial auto business in the Q1 last year. Speaker 200:16:59But the commercial auto liability part of the business isn't where we want it with a small underwriting loss in that. So it's our objective to lower our overall commercial auto combined ratio and particularly on commercial auto liability. So achieving rate increases at that level is very welcome at this point. Speaker 400:17:28Thank you. Operator00:17:34Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski of BMO. Please go ahead, Michael. Speaker 600:17:48Great. Good afternoon. If we focus on the specialtycasualty segment, the growth overall top line growth has been decelerating, which I guess feels like it makes sense, right? Workers' comp pricing is as it should be, not great given how great profitability is. And then on the other hand, you have some of the other lines of business pricing power appears to be going moving north as the industries and AFG's reserve releases are, I guess, some kind of dissipate a bit. Speaker 600:18:35So I guess does this just feel kind of like the cycle is playing out as it does, the pricing kind of in certain lines are non comp are going in the right direction up because the industry is seeing that margins are missing a bit. And I guess just trying to get at, does this cycle feel like it's turning the right way with comp obviously being the I guess also turning the right way but got downwards given profits? Speaker 200:19:12Yes. I think when you look at the to address the growth side, the workers' comp part of the business, 1st quarter premium is roughly flat to up just a little bit. So when you exclude workers' comp and that's in the specialty casualty segment, we're growing about 6%. I've talked about in the past on the social and inflation exposed businesses. As I just mentioned, really glad to see that we're getting double digit price increase on a number of those businesses, which is a real positive. Speaker 200:19:53But I think because of the claims environment, in a lot of those lines, our guys are trying to position us for continued success regardless of the social inflation that's going on. I think I've talked in the past of in certain businesses like public sector substantially increasing their retentions over which we're writing business in the municipal pools and increasing moving up the towers, some with smaller limits and some of our excess liability businesses in that. So our guys are those businesses, the excess liability businesses have been very profitable for us, but our guys are trying to position us for continued success there going forward in this kind of environment in that. Continue to be very pleased with the overall workers' comp results in the Q1. So that's a positive in that. Speaker 600:21:10Okay. That's helpful. And maybe a follow-up just to stay on workers' comp given it's a good part of your business. It's been remained very profitable. Is there when we look at profitability sorry. Speaker 200:21:29Yes. Mike mentioned one other in the crop business, we're happy with right now it's very early, but the crop year is starting out solid. Plantings of corn and soybeans are proceeding at a pace that exceeds the last 5 year average. While the U. S. Speaker 200:21:54Drought monitor, when you look at that is better overall than April of last year. And with reduced drought conditions across much of the Western Corn Belt where some of the drought problems existed last year. Despite the rainfall, we also don't have significant concerns about floods or above average preventative planning type of claims in that. Corn and soybean prices have been very stable, which is good. And I'm being told that the winter wheat business is seems to be performing much better, potentially much better than what it was last year. Speaker 200:22:42So like extremely early, but like the way we're starting out there on a pretty very significant business for us. Speaker 600:22:53And then winter wheat and I did have a follow-up on workers comp, the winter wheat as a percentage of your portfolio if you can remind us? Speaker 200:23:00I think it's maybe 8% or something like that. I think all wheat is maybe 10% or something around that. Speaker 600:23:10Okay. And if I may, my follow-up was on workers' comp, which is a big and profitable business for you all. If we just as our and when we look at just overall industry trends versus American Financial Group last year, your workers' comp business was extremely profitable, but much less profitable year over year. And I'm looking at it on a combined ratio basis and your reserve releases were still high, but just decelerated. And the industry actually kind of became more showed up improvement, which was a surprise. Speaker 600:23:45But just curious, specific to your book, is there when you reflect on what the actions you took in 2023, are some of those just due to the nature of your book maybe being more concentrated in certain states that your experience was very different than it has been relative to the industry? Speaker 200:24:10I'm not sure there's that significant of a difference in that. We continue to have great results last year. Our Q1 results are continue to be excellent for workers' comp. I think in our Summit business, our Strategic Comp Business, our high deductible business and National Interstates Workers' Comp are all performing very well. Our California business is the part of the business that has an underwriting loss both last year and in the Q1. Speaker 200:24:45So that's a relatively smaller part of our workers' comp business in that. But I suppose that could have some impact. So we're getting a good start, have excellent comp results in the Q1. We do think that this year that the profitability won't be as good as the previous year. One reason is the 15% rate decline in Florida, which is a significant state for one of our large comp subsidiaries, Summit. Operator00:25:36Our next question comes from the line of C. Gregory Peters of Raymond James. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:25:46Hey, good morning. This is Sid on for Greg. Just wanted to follow-up on the growth in the Specialty Financial. I know in the prepared remarks you highlighted the financial institutions. But curious if you could provide a little bit more information on what you're seeing as attractive in that area of your business. Speaker 700:26:04Feels like there's been a step change in growth and just trying to get a sense if we should expect this to continue? Speaker 200:26:12I think we expect solid growth this year. I think the Q1 was very strong in that. I think different companies talk about leaning into the property opportunities. This is a business that we've done very well over a long period of time with significant underwriting profitability. With pricing going up 9%, with an industry that's focused on getting the proper insured values, There are states like Florida and a number of other states that are moving to anybody doing this business, doing making sure that things are insured to replacement cost value, not just the principal balance. Speaker 200:27:08Replacement cost value could be appraised value or it could be what's called last known coverage replacement cost, which would have been maybe somebody's last homeowners policy in that, that was written. So both price and getting proper insured value competitively. There have been a number of competitors that have faltered and that have allowed us to pick up significant accounts, one in particular last year that we're continuing to benefit from. We'll see if we this is a lumpy business in that when you pick up an account or lose an account, it can have a decent impact on your overall, comes in lumps. So, we're hoping that we continue to have some opportunity to pick up maybe some additional accounts. Speaker 200:28:13By the same token, what our thoughts are on business that's too catastrophe catastrophe exposed. So if there are accounts that we don't think are performing or have too much catastrophe exposure, there may be we may decide not to go forward with some. So bottom line is we're pleased with how this business is starting out, very profitable, really good growth, above the price increase and ensured the value momentum that we're getting. And I think we're excited about the business. Speaker 700:28:52Okay, thanks. And then as my follow-up, in the press release, I believe you said the returns in the alternative investment portfolio exceeded expectations for the quarter. And I know you're not providing detailed guidance anymore, but just curious if the Q1 results change your view on the expected performance of the portfolio for this year or if the 6% annualized return is still the right bogey to use for 2024? Speaker 300:29:19Sure. This is Craig. On our last conference call, when we talked about assumptions that went into our plan, we talked about a 6% assumption on total return on alternatives for the year and that was made up of a low single digit return on our multifamily properties, which account for about half of that portfolio at a stronger return on the other investments. And what I would say is multifamily is performing pretty much in line with our expectations or pretty much in line with what we were kind of expecting to see when we guided to or said that we were using a low single digit return on that piece. I don't think we change our thoughts on that, kind of given the outlook for the balance of the year. Speaker 300:30:20On the multifamily, we got off to a very good start. We had very good returns on the balance of the alternative portfolio. But as you know, that can be pretty lumpy. I think we did benefit from the very strong market in the Q4 of 2023 and the calendar year 2023. We report the returns and marks on a quarter delayed basis. Speaker 300:30:49And so I think in the Q1, we benefited from the very strong market last year. It's early in the year, hard to predict what the market is going to do the balance of the year. So at this point in time, we would not change the assumed 6% return for the year. Speaker 700:31:08Okay. Thanks for the answers. Speaker 500:31:13Thank you. Operator00:31:16Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Anderson of Jefferies. Your question please, Andrew. Speaker 800:31:24Hey, good morning. In the press release, you pointed to improved profitability on workers' comp. Am I correct in thinking that is due to stronger releases year over year and not due to the underlying loss ratio? And maybe with that, could you touch on the seasonality of perhaps how 23s orders comp developed on a quarterly basis? Speaker 500:31:55So the combined ratio, I think your combined ratio was fairly similar in workers' comp in the quarter over quarter as well as the development. So there was a little bit of growth in workers' comp this year, but the underlying loss ratios were similar in that business. There was some there can be some lumpiness in the development, but this in the Q1 of 2024, it was similar to the Q1 of 2023. Speaker 800:32:26Okay. Speaker 500:32:27I don't think our press Speaker 200:32:30release said we had an increased margins there. I think we just said we did well and I think that's what my earlier comment was is that we had strong quarter. Speaker 800:32:42Okay. Thank you. And then maybe looking at some Schedule P accident ear picks for other liability, claims made seem to improve year over year and occurrence was kind of flat year over year for accident year 2023. I guess I would have thought there'd be maybe a little bit more conservatism just given the loss trend environment, but can you kind of help us think through these picks here? Speaker 500:33:07Sure. So on the general liability occurrence, I think it's important to know that there could be changes in mix of business. And we also have been getting significant rate increases there. And then in some of like our excess businesses, we've also been looking at higher attachment points and higher deductibles. So there's really a change of mix of business that's happening there that kind of mutes the impact on the loss pick changes. Speaker 500:33:36In the claims made, we tend to be conservative early on and then that sets us up for more chances of favorable development there. Speaker 800:33:46Okay. Thank you. Operator00:33:49Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of Keefe, Breaette and Woods. Please go ahead, Meyer. Speaker 900:34:02Great. Thanks. I think earlier, Karl, in your comments, you talked about 20% plus rate increases in commercial auto. And I'm wondering how we should think about that impacting demand for captive solutions as opposed to maintaining same insurance programs companies that have? Speaker 200:34:26I don't think it probably has that big of an impact one way or the other. I mean, the whole marketplace is struggling with social inflation on the commercial auto liability side and the market is allowing increases. Now on specific captive accounts, if the experience is better, then it wouldn't be the 21%. There's probably some parts some accounts and some businesses that got lower price increases and those that haven't had great results, higher. Speaker 900:35:12Okay. So then I guess where I'm going with this is to just infer that as those rate increases earn in, the improving unrunning profit should basically emerge in a typical fashion instead of being sort of offset by clients retaining significantly more risk? Speaker 200:35:34Again, it's our goal to improve the commercial auto liability combined ratios over the next year or 2 and hence having stronger overall commercial auto results. That's and as I mentioned in some of the specialty casualty lines, we're a very underwriting profit driven company. I mean, on commercial auto, we're probably outperforming the market by 5 or 6 points at least. And we're serious about getting the right returns on that business. So if anything on that part of the business, I'd say our guys are serious on getting the price and terms changes and the selection of business that achieves our goal of improving things over the next year or 2. Speaker 200:36:29So definitely our guys would be more focused on improving that result and growing a ton right now. Speaker 600:36:40Okay, perfect. And if I Speaker 900:36:41can switch gears briefly, is the growth in Specialty Financial likely to impact the amount of reinsurance that you want to carry for the rest of the year? Speaker 200:36:54Definitely. That's something that we as that business has grown that we definitely are monitoring. I think, in fact, I believe we're looking at purchasing some GAAP insurance to cover the gap between our underlying cap tower and the catastrophe bond that we have. Speaker 600:37:23Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. Operator00:37:27Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Lederer of Citigroup. Your question please, Charlie. Speaker 400:37:45Hey, thanks. Just one follow-up. You mentioned the alternative markets business a little bit. We've heard about certain specialty peers kind of scaling it back after experiencing losses there. I know it's relatively small dollars for you, but curious if you can share whether your thoughts have changed on that business. Speaker 500:38:22I assume you're referring to the Innovative Markets business where we talked about having the Speaker 400:38:28Yes, I misspoke. I said alternative. Yes, sorry, Innovative Markets, the IP visible. Speaker 500:38:35So in that business, we're evaluating the opportunities there and some of the particular programs that have those losses are things that we're no longer offering new coverages in. Speaker 400:38:48Okay. Thank you. Speaker 500:38:50Charlie, while we have you on your question earlier about prior year development in the specialty casualty. I think it's important also when you're looking at that to put it in context of where we're coming from in those results. So when you look at the businesses that we had some adverse development in, those are still very profitable businesses for us. For example, for the full year 2023, most of our more social inflation exposed businesses had a calendar year underwriting profit despite some of the noise there and only one of them had a return on equity that wasn't double digits. In fact, when we look at our excess and surplus businesses overall, all three of those had calendar year ROEs above 20% in 2023. Speaker 500:39:34So I thought it might be just good to remember when you're thinking about some of the lumps in prior development that those are in businesses that are generally very profitable over a long number of years. Speaker 400:39:46Great. Thank Operator00:39:48you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski of BMO. Your question please, Michael. Speaker 600:40:03Great. Thanks. Just a quick follow-up probably for Craig. But on the real estate returns, I guess I probably should know this, but I don't think we all fully appreciate it. Does the how does the is it a mark to market there or how does that work? Speaker 600:40:21I think we appreciate how private equity works and sometimes a lag and how the private equity firms mark that, which I think are 3rd parties, but remind us how the marks are created on your real estate portfolio? Thanks. Speaker 300:40:37Sure. It is similar to the private equity investments and that the general partners and our multifamily with our multifamily investments, will view the valuation on a quarterly basis and mark them to market on a quarterly basis. Speaker 600:40:59Okay, got it. So the interest rate so it's so just as a follow-up, could there be historically has there been more volatility on the PE or the real estate if there's a way that's kind of just high level size up whether we should maybe be thinking about there maybe there can be some lumpy quarters that actually come from real estate whereas I thought it usually came from private equity? Speaker 300:41:25Yes. I mean, if you look over a long period of time, they're actually the multifamily returns have been very predictable. We obviously have been in a somewhat unusual environment here the last 6, 9 months with a very large increase in interest rates. The operating income of the multifamily properties continues very strong. We're very pleased with the performance, but cap rates have moved up because of an increase in interest rates. Speaker 600:42:01Okay. That's all I have. Appreciate it. Operator00:42:05Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Diane Weidner for closing remarks. Ma'am? Speaker 100:42:13Thank you all for joining us today as we discussed our Q1 results. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter and hope you all have a great day. Operator00:42:23This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallAmerican Financial Group Q1 202400:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) American Financial Group Earnings HeadlinesAmerican Financial Group Inc (AFG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Returns and ...April 21, 2025 | gurufocus.comJim Cramer on American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG): A Longtime Favorite from the Lindner FamilyApril 18, 2025 | msn.comWhy Elon put $51 million into thisWhy Elon Musk Just Invested $51 Million Into Brand New “Miracle Metal” Developed by MIT ScientistsApril 26, 2025 | True Market Insiders (Ad)American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Its Conference Call and Webcast to Discuss 2025 First Quarter ResultsApril 15, 2025 | businesswire.comAmerican Financial Group price target lowered to $126 from $144 at Keefe BruyetteApril 9, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comAmerican Financial Group Sells Charleston Harbor ResortApril 2, 2025 | tipranks.comSee More American Financial Group Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like American Financial Group? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on American Financial Group and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About American Financial GroupAmerican Financial Group (NYSE:AFG), an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. It sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. 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There are 10 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by, and welcome to American Financial Group's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call over to Diane Weidner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:33Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's Q1 2024 earnings results conference call. We released our 2024 Q1 results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call. Speaker 100:00:55I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, co CEOs of American Financial Group and Brian Hertzmann, AFG's CFO. Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on Slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. Speaker 100:01:30We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy. And as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements. Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results. Speaker 200:02:01Good morning. I'll begin my remarks by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2024 Q1, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. I will then open it up for Q and A where Craig, Brian and I will respond to your questions. AFG's financial performance during the Q1 was excellent. In addition to producing an annualized first quarter operating return on equity of 20%, net written premiums grew by 8% year over year. Speaker 200:02:29Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy and astute team with in house investment professionals collectively have enabled us to outperform many of our peers over time. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results. I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of the details. Speaker 300:02:57Thanks, Carl. Please turn to Slides 34 for a summary of earnings information for the quarter. AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.76 per share in the 2024 Q1. The year over year decrease reflects lower returns in AFG's alternative investment portfolio when compared to the very strong performance of this portfolio in the prior year period. Now I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance, financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity. Speaker 300:03:36The details surrounding our $15,300,000,000 investment portfolio are presented on Slides 56. Looking at results for the Q1, property and casualty net investment income was approximately 1% lower than the comparable 2023 period. Excluding the impact of alternative investments, net investment income in our P and C Insurance operations for the 3 months ended March 31, 20 24 increased by 16% year over year as a result of the impact of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets. As you'll see on Slide 6, approximately 68% of our portfolio invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 6%. Speaker 300:04:33Current reinvestment rates compare favorably to the nearly 5% yield earned on fixed maturities in our P and C portfolio during the Q1 of 2024. The duration of our P and C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents was 2.9 years at March 31, 2024. We've strategically managed duration to take advantage of market opportunities as interest rates have increased from recent historic lows. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P and C portfolio was approximately 9% for the 2024 Q1 compared to 14.2% for the prior year quarter. Strong returns related to our traditional private equity portfolio were offset by lower returns on investments tied to multifamily housing, which represent about half of our alternative investment portfolio and where we continue to experience headwinds from the impact of increased supply and the leveling out of rental rates on these investments. Speaker 300:05:44We expect these headwinds may continue throughout the remainder of 2024. Longer term, we remain optimistic regarding the prospects of our investments in multifamily housing as these properties continue to generate strong net operating income and have desirable geographic positioning and high occupancy rates. The average return average annual return on alternative investments over the 5 calendar years ended December 31, 2023 was approximately 13%. Please turn to Slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at March 31, 2024. During the quarter, we returned $269,000,000 to our shareholders through the payment of our regular $0.71 per share quarterly dividend as well as a $2.5 per share special dividend. Speaker 300:06:41We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2024, which provides ample opportunity for additional special dividends or share repurchases over the next year. We continue to view total value creation as measured by growth and book value plus dividends is an important measure of performance over the long term. For the 3 months ended March 31, 2024, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 5.1%. I'll now turn the call back over to Carl to discuss the results of our P and C operations. Speaker 200:07:24Thank you, Craig. Please turn to Slides 89 of the webcast, which include an overview of our Q1 results. As you'll see on Slide 8, our specialty property and casualty insurance businesses generated a strong 90.1 combined ratio in the Q1 of 2024, about a point higher than the 89.2 reported in the Q1 of last year. Results for the 2024 Q1 included 2.3 points of the catastrophe losses compared to 2.2 points in last year's Q1 and 3.3 points of favorable prior year reserve development compared to 4.5 points in the Q1 of 2023. Q1 2024 gross and net written premiums were both up 8% when compared to the same period last year. Speaker 200:08:12Year over year growth was reported within each of the specialty property and casualty groups as a result of additional crop premiums from Crop Risk Services acquisition, new business opportunities, increased exposures and a good renewal rate environment. Along those lines, average renewal pricing across our property and casualty group excluding our workers' comp businesses was up 8% for the quarter, accelerating about 1% from the previous quarter. Including workers' compensation, renewal rates were up 6% overall, in line with the previous quarter. This is our 31st consecutive quarter to report overall renewal rate increases and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns. In addition to renewal pricing, we continue to focus on insured values in our property related businesses to ensure that our premiums reflect inflationary considerations. Speaker 200:09:16Now I'd like to turn to Slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty Business Groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on our summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation Group achieved an 89 calendar year combined ratio overall in the first quarter of 2024, an improvement of 2 points from the 91 reported in the comparable 2023 period. Q1 2024 gross and net written premiums in this group were 10% and 7% higher respectively than the comparable prior year period. Additional crop premium associated with the CRS acquisition as well as new business opportunities, a favorable rate environment and strong account retentions in our commercial auto and ocean marine businesses were the primary drivers of the increase in premiums. Speaker 200:10:11Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 9% on average in the Q1 of 2024, an increase of about 2 points from the previous quarter. And I'm particularly pleased with renewal rates achieved in our commercial auto liability line of business where rates were up 21%. The businesses in our specialty casualty group achieved a strong 89.8 calendar year combined ratio in the Q1 of 2024, 2.3 points higher than the 87.5 percent reported in the comparable period last year. Cat losses added 2.2 points to the Specialty Casualty Group, Q1 2024 combined ratio and were the result of a winter storm that affected a large social services account in the northwestern part of the country. I'm particularly pleased with the continued very strong underwriting margins in our executive liability and workers' comp businesses. Speaker 200:11:121st quarter 2024 gross and net rent premiums increased 3% 4%, respectively, when compared to the same prior year period. While most of the businesses in this group reported premium growth during the Q1, the higher year over year premiums resulted primarily from the growth in our excess and surplus wines and excess liability businesses as a result of rate increases and new business opportunities. Higher rates, strong account retention and new business opportunities in several of our targeted markets businesses contributed to the year over year growth to a lesser extent. Now renewal pricing for this group, excluding our workers' comp businesses, was up approximately 8% in the Q1 and was up about 5% overall, with both measures up about 1% from the renewal pricing in the previous quarter. I'm particularly pleased that we achieved renewal rate increases in excess of 10% in several of our social inflation exposed businesses during the quarter, including our public entity, social services and excess liability businesses. Speaker 200:12:23The Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an 86 point 3 percent combined ratio for the Q1 of 2024, a slight improvement from the comparable period in 2023. Q1 2024 gross and net written premiums were up 26% 27%, respectively, when compared to the same 2023 period. While most businesses in this group reported year over year growth, our financial institutions business was the primary driver of the higher premiums, representing a continuation of the growth we reported in both of our lender placed and residential investor business products in the second half of twenty twenty three. Renewal pricing in this group was up approximately 7% in the Q1. Craig and I are pleased to report these strong results for the Q1 and we're proud of our proven track record of long term value creation. Speaker 200:13:23Our insurance professionals have exercised their specialty property and casualty knowledge and experience to skillfully navigate the marketplace. And our in house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $15,000,000,000 investment portfolio. We're well positioned to continue to build long term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2024 and beyond. We'll now open the lines for the Q and A portion of today's call. And Craig and Brian and I would be happy to respond to your questions. Speaker 200:13:57Thank Operator00:14:04you. Our first question comes from the line of Charlie Lederer of Citigroup. Your question please, Charlie. Speaker 400:14:22Thank you. Good morning. Wondering if you guys can share more about the reserve development in the quarter, I guess specifically in Specialty Financial and Specialty Casualty, just Financial and Specialty Casualty, just the kind of the moving pieces there? Thanks. Speaker 500:14:41Hi, Charlie. This is Brian. So to talk about the casualty segment first, there's a few things going on there. First of all, we did continue to see favorable development coming out of our workers' comp business as well as lower severity in our executive liability business. Offsetting that is some increased severity in our excess liability businesses and some increased severity in the social services businesses. Speaker 500:15:13When Carl mentioned the lower profitability in the social services businesses, that's coming through prior year development and it's just on a number a few claims there. Well, we don't comment on specific claims. It is over a couple of Speaker 300:15:30the more recent accident years. Speaker 500:15:34And then in the financial group, there's a small amount of adverse development there and that's related to our innovative markets business where we're seeing a little bit of increased severity there. The Innovative Markets business includes some coverages related to complex intellectual property. Got it. Okay. And I Speaker 400:16:01guess that's helpful. I guess just on the commercial auto liability pricing increase, if I heard that, that kind of jumped off the page at 21%. I guess, what does that compare to in the Q4? And how should we think about that earning through and impacting your underlying margins in property and transportation as the year goes on? Speaker 200:16:29I definitely think it's a very positive result. I believe for all of 2023, it was around 11%, but I believe the Q4 jumped up to around 15% or so. So I definitely like the trend. It's our goal. We have solid underwriting performance for our overall commercial auto business in the Q1 last year. Speaker 200:16:59But the commercial auto liability part of the business isn't where we want it with a small underwriting loss in that. So it's our objective to lower our overall commercial auto combined ratio and particularly on commercial auto liability. So achieving rate increases at that level is very welcome at this point. Speaker 400:17:28Thank you. Operator00:17:34Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski of BMO. Please go ahead, Michael. Speaker 600:17:48Great. Good afternoon. If we focus on the specialtycasualty segment, the growth overall top line growth has been decelerating, which I guess feels like it makes sense, right? Workers' comp pricing is as it should be, not great given how great profitability is. And then on the other hand, you have some of the other lines of business pricing power appears to be going moving north as the industries and AFG's reserve releases are, I guess, some kind of dissipate a bit. Speaker 600:18:35So I guess does this just feel kind of like the cycle is playing out as it does, the pricing kind of in certain lines are non comp are going in the right direction up because the industry is seeing that margins are missing a bit. And I guess just trying to get at, does this cycle feel like it's turning the right way with comp obviously being the I guess also turning the right way but got downwards given profits? Speaker 200:19:12Yes. I think when you look at the to address the growth side, the workers' comp part of the business, 1st quarter premium is roughly flat to up just a little bit. So when you exclude workers' comp and that's in the specialty casualty segment, we're growing about 6%. I've talked about in the past on the social and inflation exposed businesses. As I just mentioned, really glad to see that we're getting double digit price increase on a number of those businesses, which is a real positive. Speaker 200:19:53But I think because of the claims environment, in a lot of those lines, our guys are trying to position us for continued success regardless of the social inflation that's going on. I think I've talked in the past of in certain businesses like public sector substantially increasing their retentions over which we're writing business in the municipal pools and increasing moving up the towers, some with smaller limits and some of our excess liability businesses in that. So our guys are those businesses, the excess liability businesses have been very profitable for us, but our guys are trying to position us for continued success there going forward in this kind of environment in that. Continue to be very pleased with the overall workers' comp results in the Q1. So that's a positive in that. Speaker 600:21:10Okay. That's helpful. And maybe a follow-up just to stay on workers' comp given it's a good part of your business. It's been remained very profitable. Is there when we look at profitability sorry. Speaker 200:21:29Yes. Mike mentioned one other in the crop business, we're happy with right now it's very early, but the crop year is starting out solid. Plantings of corn and soybeans are proceeding at a pace that exceeds the last 5 year average. While the U. S. Speaker 200:21:54Drought monitor, when you look at that is better overall than April of last year. And with reduced drought conditions across much of the Western Corn Belt where some of the drought problems existed last year. Despite the rainfall, we also don't have significant concerns about floods or above average preventative planning type of claims in that. Corn and soybean prices have been very stable, which is good. And I'm being told that the winter wheat business is seems to be performing much better, potentially much better than what it was last year. Speaker 200:22:42So like extremely early, but like the way we're starting out there on a pretty very significant business for us. Speaker 600:22:53And then winter wheat and I did have a follow-up on workers comp, the winter wheat as a percentage of your portfolio if you can remind us? Speaker 200:23:00I think it's maybe 8% or something like that. I think all wheat is maybe 10% or something around that. Speaker 600:23:10Okay. And if I may, my follow-up was on workers' comp, which is a big and profitable business for you all. If we just as our and when we look at just overall industry trends versus American Financial Group last year, your workers' comp business was extremely profitable, but much less profitable year over year. And I'm looking at it on a combined ratio basis and your reserve releases were still high, but just decelerated. And the industry actually kind of became more showed up improvement, which was a surprise. Speaker 600:23:45But just curious, specific to your book, is there when you reflect on what the actions you took in 2023, are some of those just due to the nature of your book maybe being more concentrated in certain states that your experience was very different than it has been relative to the industry? Speaker 200:24:10I'm not sure there's that significant of a difference in that. We continue to have great results last year. Our Q1 results are continue to be excellent for workers' comp. I think in our Summit business, our Strategic Comp Business, our high deductible business and National Interstates Workers' Comp are all performing very well. Our California business is the part of the business that has an underwriting loss both last year and in the Q1. Speaker 200:24:45So that's a relatively smaller part of our workers' comp business in that. But I suppose that could have some impact. So we're getting a good start, have excellent comp results in the Q1. We do think that this year that the profitability won't be as good as the previous year. One reason is the 15% rate decline in Florida, which is a significant state for one of our large comp subsidiaries, Summit. Operator00:25:36Our next question comes from the line of C. Gregory Peters of Raymond James. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:25:46Hey, good morning. This is Sid on for Greg. Just wanted to follow-up on the growth in the Specialty Financial. I know in the prepared remarks you highlighted the financial institutions. But curious if you could provide a little bit more information on what you're seeing as attractive in that area of your business. Speaker 700:26:04Feels like there's been a step change in growth and just trying to get a sense if we should expect this to continue? Speaker 200:26:12I think we expect solid growth this year. I think the Q1 was very strong in that. I think different companies talk about leaning into the property opportunities. This is a business that we've done very well over a long period of time with significant underwriting profitability. With pricing going up 9%, with an industry that's focused on getting the proper insured values, There are states like Florida and a number of other states that are moving to anybody doing this business, doing making sure that things are insured to replacement cost value, not just the principal balance. Speaker 200:27:08Replacement cost value could be appraised value or it could be what's called last known coverage replacement cost, which would have been maybe somebody's last homeowners policy in that, that was written. So both price and getting proper insured value competitively. There have been a number of competitors that have faltered and that have allowed us to pick up significant accounts, one in particular last year that we're continuing to benefit from. We'll see if we this is a lumpy business in that when you pick up an account or lose an account, it can have a decent impact on your overall, comes in lumps. So, we're hoping that we continue to have some opportunity to pick up maybe some additional accounts. Speaker 200:28:13By the same token, what our thoughts are on business that's too catastrophe catastrophe exposed. So if there are accounts that we don't think are performing or have too much catastrophe exposure, there may be we may decide not to go forward with some. So bottom line is we're pleased with how this business is starting out, very profitable, really good growth, above the price increase and ensured the value momentum that we're getting. And I think we're excited about the business. Speaker 700:28:52Okay, thanks. And then as my follow-up, in the press release, I believe you said the returns in the alternative investment portfolio exceeded expectations for the quarter. And I know you're not providing detailed guidance anymore, but just curious if the Q1 results change your view on the expected performance of the portfolio for this year or if the 6% annualized return is still the right bogey to use for 2024? Speaker 300:29:19Sure. This is Craig. On our last conference call, when we talked about assumptions that went into our plan, we talked about a 6% assumption on total return on alternatives for the year and that was made up of a low single digit return on our multifamily properties, which account for about half of that portfolio at a stronger return on the other investments. And what I would say is multifamily is performing pretty much in line with our expectations or pretty much in line with what we were kind of expecting to see when we guided to or said that we were using a low single digit return on that piece. I don't think we change our thoughts on that, kind of given the outlook for the balance of the year. Speaker 300:30:20On the multifamily, we got off to a very good start. We had very good returns on the balance of the alternative portfolio. But as you know, that can be pretty lumpy. I think we did benefit from the very strong market in the Q4 of 2023 and the calendar year 2023. We report the returns and marks on a quarter delayed basis. Speaker 300:30:49And so I think in the Q1, we benefited from the very strong market last year. It's early in the year, hard to predict what the market is going to do the balance of the year. So at this point in time, we would not change the assumed 6% return for the year. Speaker 700:31:08Okay. Thanks for the answers. Speaker 500:31:13Thank you. Operator00:31:16Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Anderson of Jefferies. Your question please, Andrew. Speaker 800:31:24Hey, good morning. In the press release, you pointed to improved profitability on workers' comp. Am I correct in thinking that is due to stronger releases year over year and not due to the underlying loss ratio? And maybe with that, could you touch on the seasonality of perhaps how 23s orders comp developed on a quarterly basis? Speaker 500:31:55So the combined ratio, I think your combined ratio was fairly similar in workers' comp in the quarter over quarter as well as the development. So there was a little bit of growth in workers' comp this year, but the underlying loss ratios were similar in that business. There was some there can be some lumpiness in the development, but this in the Q1 of 2024, it was similar to the Q1 of 2023. Speaker 800:32:26Okay. Speaker 500:32:27I don't think our press Speaker 200:32:30release said we had an increased margins there. I think we just said we did well and I think that's what my earlier comment was is that we had strong quarter. Speaker 800:32:42Okay. Thank you. And then maybe looking at some Schedule P accident ear picks for other liability, claims made seem to improve year over year and occurrence was kind of flat year over year for accident year 2023. I guess I would have thought there'd be maybe a little bit more conservatism just given the loss trend environment, but can you kind of help us think through these picks here? Speaker 500:33:07Sure. So on the general liability occurrence, I think it's important to know that there could be changes in mix of business. And we also have been getting significant rate increases there. And then in some of like our excess businesses, we've also been looking at higher attachment points and higher deductibles. So there's really a change of mix of business that's happening there that kind of mutes the impact on the loss pick changes. Speaker 500:33:36In the claims made, we tend to be conservative early on and then that sets us up for more chances of favorable development there. Speaker 800:33:46Okay. Thank you. Operator00:33:49Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of Keefe, Breaette and Woods. Please go ahead, Meyer. Speaker 900:34:02Great. Thanks. I think earlier, Karl, in your comments, you talked about 20% plus rate increases in commercial auto. And I'm wondering how we should think about that impacting demand for captive solutions as opposed to maintaining same insurance programs companies that have? Speaker 200:34:26I don't think it probably has that big of an impact one way or the other. I mean, the whole marketplace is struggling with social inflation on the commercial auto liability side and the market is allowing increases. Now on specific captive accounts, if the experience is better, then it wouldn't be the 21%. There's probably some parts some accounts and some businesses that got lower price increases and those that haven't had great results, higher. Speaker 900:35:12Okay. So then I guess where I'm going with this is to just infer that as those rate increases earn in, the improving unrunning profit should basically emerge in a typical fashion instead of being sort of offset by clients retaining significantly more risk? Speaker 200:35:34Again, it's our goal to improve the commercial auto liability combined ratios over the next year or 2 and hence having stronger overall commercial auto results. That's and as I mentioned in some of the specialty casualty lines, we're a very underwriting profit driven company. I mean, on commercial auto, we're probably outperforming the market by 5 or 6 points at least. And we're serious about getting the right returns on that business. So if anything on that part of the business, I'd say our guys are serious on getting the price and terms changes and the selection of business that achieves our goal of improving things over the next year or 2. Speaker 200:36:29So definitely our guys would be more focused on improving that result and growing a ton right now. Speaker 600:36:40Okay, perfect. And if I Speaker 900:36:41can switch gears briefly, is the growth in Specialty Financial likely to impact the amount of reinsurance that you want to carry for the rest of the year? Speaker 200:36:54Definitely. That's something that we as that business has grown that we definitely are monitoring. I think, in fact, I believe we're looking at purchasing some GAAP insurance to cover the gap between our underlying cap tower and the catastrophe bond that we have. Speaker 600:37:23Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. Operator00:37:27Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Lederer of Citigroup. Your question please, Charlie. Speaker 400:37:45Hey, thanks. Just one follow-up. You mentioned the alternative markets business a little bit. We've heard about certain specialty peers kind of scaling it back after experiencing losses there. I know it's relatively small dollars for you, but curious if you can share whether your thoughts have changed on that business. Speaker 500:38:22I assume you're referring to the Innovative Markets business where we talked about having the Speaker 400:38:28Yes, I misspoke. I said alternative. Yes, sorry, Innovative Markets, the IP visible. Speaker 500:38:35So in that business, we're evaluating the opportunities there and some of the particular programs that have those losses are things that we're no longer offering new coverages in. Speaker 400:38:48Okay. Thank you. Speaker 500:38:50Charlie, while we have you on your question earlier about prior year development in the specialty casualty. I think it's important also when you're looking at that to put it in context of where we're coming from in those results. So when you look at the businesses that we had some adverse development in, those are still very profitable businesses for us. For example, for the full year 2023, most of our more social inflation exposed businesses had a calendar year underwriting profit despite some of the noise there and only one of them had a return on equity that wasn't double digits. In fact, when we look at our excess and surplus businesses overall, all three of those had calendar year ROEs above 20% in 2023. Speaker 500:39:34So I thought it might be just good to remember when you're thinking about some of the lumps in prior development that those are in businesses that are generally very profitable over a long number of years. Speaker 400:39:46Great. Thank Operator00:39:48you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski of BMO. Your question please, Michael. Speaker 600:40:03Great. Thanks. Just a quick follow-up probably for Craig. But on the real estate returns, I guess I probably should know this, but I don't think we all fully appreciate it. Does the how does the is it a mark to market there or how does that work? Speaker 600:40:21I think we appreciate how private equity works and sometimes a lag and how the private equity firms mark that, which I think are 3rd parties, but remind us how the marks are created on your real estate portfolio? Thanks. Speaker 300:40:37Sure. It is similar to the private equity investments and that the general partners and our multifamily with our multifamily investments, will view the valuation on a quarterly basis and mark them to market on a quarterly basis. Speaker 600:40:59Okay, got it. So the interest rate so it's so just as a follow-up, could there be historically has there been more volatility on the PE or the real estate if there's a way that's kind of just high level size up whether we should maybe be thinking about there maybe there can be some lumpy quarters that actually come from real estate whereas I thought it usually came from private equity? Speaker 300:41:25Yes. I mean, if you look over a long period of time, they're actually the multifamily returns have been very predictable. We obviously have been in a somewhat unusual environment here the last 6, 9 months with a very large increase in interest rates. The operating income of the multifamily properties continues very strong. We're very pleased with the performance, but cap rates have moved up because of an increase in interest rates. Speaker 600:42:01Okay. That's all I have. Appreciate it. Operator00:42:05Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Diane Weidner for closing remarks. Ma'am? Speaker 100:42:13Thank you all for joining us today as we discussed our Q1 results. We look forward to talking to you again next quarter and hope you all have a great day. Operator00:42:23This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.Read morePowered by