XP Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 21, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good evening, everyone. I'm Andrew Prezi, Head of Investor Relations at XP, Inc. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. On behalf of the company, I would like to thank you all for the interest in welcoming you to our 24 Q1 earnings call. This quarter's results will be presented by our CEO, Thiago Maffray and our CFO, Bruno Constantino, who will both be available for the Q and A session right after the presentation.

Operator

If you want to ask a question, you can raise your hand on the Zoom tool and we will attend you on a first come, first serve basis. You also have the option of simultaneous translation to Portuguese. There's a button below if you want to turn on the translation. And before we begin our presentation, please refer to our legal disclaimers on Page 2, on which we clarify forward looking statements. Additional information in forward looking statements can also be found on the SEC filings section in our IR website.

Operator

So now, I'll turn it over to Thiago Mafra. Good evening, Mafra.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Andre. Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our 2024 Q1 earnings call. It's a pleasure to be here tonight. Before we review our financial results, it's important to acknowledge the devastating floods that have impacted Rio Grande do Sul, resulting in tragic loss of lives and homes.

Speaker 1

It's particularly heartbreaking as XP begun its journey in a small 200 square foot of SimPorto Alegre. During this difficult time, we are committed to supporting the affected communities. Our hearts go out to all those affected. Now let us discuss our quarterly performance and the steps we are taking to ensure our continued growth and commitment to all stakeholders. As we continue our conversation today, I want to reiterate our commitment to serving our clients by delivering innovative and high quality service.

Speaker 1

I'm proud to announce that during this quarter, we have implemented a sophisticated and scalable financial planning tool. This technology provide us with a clear view of our clients' financial cycles, enhancing our servicing offerings. Additionally, it integrates seamlessly with our recently launched Open Investments initiative, which broadens our ability to present diverse investments alternatives at better rates and lower price. I will revisit this topic shortly to provide more details on how it functions. Before we delve into our financial performance, it's crucial to address the macroeconomic environment, which remains challenging.

Speaker 1

The Q1 of 2024 began with terminal interest rates expectations nearing 9% per year, controlled inflation and appreciating real and a managed fiscal situation. However, as the quarter progressed, we saw interest rates adjust to 10%, a slightly depreciation of the real and an ongoing fiscal challenge. In terms of market activity, the appetite for equities has continued the trend from previous quarters with slightly lower turnover, while attention remains focused on fixed income. Despite competing with tax exempt credit notes, our competitive portfolio continues to grow, benefiting from our complete ecosystem. For instance, during the quarter, our corporate credit book saw gains from narrowing credit spreads and our debt capital markets flow remained strong for our Q1.

Speaker 1

On the flip side, we can say that we prepared ourselves to another tough year, both in terms of expenses and also in what we would expect in terms of revenues. So recent worsening in market conditions didn't change much our overall expectations for the year. Turning now to our financial performance. Despite the challenging macroeconomic scenario, we achieved a 28% year over year growth in top line and a 29% growth in bottom line. Our EBT margin expanded by approximately 81 basis points.

Speaker 1

This quarter was also marked by a strong focus on efficiency and cost discipline across all operations as presented by an efficiency ratio of 36.5%, which is 384 basis points lower year over year. Our diluted earnings per share increased by 25% year over year, reaching BRL1.85 per share. Lastly, I would like to highlight our return on tangible equity, which we consider a more accurate measure for running our business. It stood at 25.4 percent marked an increase of 4 91 basis points year over year. Moving on to the next slide.

Speaker 1

Let me provide an update on our strategy tracker for 2024, following up on our discussions from Investor Day last December. Firstly, regarding our leadership in retail investments, we are pleased to announce the appointment of Cesar Chicaibana as the new CEO of our Private Banking division. This division has seen relevant enhancements in process, product offerings and service levels. With Cesar, we are confident in our path toward establishing ourselves as one of the top private banks in Brazil. Also, we have once again being recognized by Folio de Sao Paulo as the best advisor platform in the country, a testament to our commitment to excellence in client service.

Speaker 1

Our vision is clear. We aim to dominate the investment industry in Brazil, a big but achievable goal. I will dive deeper into the specifics of this strategic pillar in the next slides. Last quarter, we introduced our financial planning tool for advisors, marking an important differentiation for XP, following our open architecture platform for 3rd party products and our extensive distribution network. Moving on to our retail cross sell strategy, particularly in banking, we are proud to be ranked 2nd in the Stadon ranking of the best banking service for 2024.

Speaker 1

Our digital account, though relatively new, has already gained recognition. This rapid recognition is incredible gratifying. Beyond investments, our new vertical segments have grown to represent a larger share of our total gross revenue, almost 13% in the Q1 of 2024, enhancing the resilience of our business model. In the corporate and SMB, our unique position in wholesale banking continues to strengthen this quarter our role in structuring and distributing corporate credit has been once again prominent, underscoring our competitive advantage through sophisticated retail investor clients and a large distribution channel. Our corporate and SMB revenue was 5% of total revenue.

Speaker 1

Lastly, on the topic of quality and strategic execution, we have launched a financial planning tool for all our advisors and with rapid adoption with over 2,500 active advisors in the platform within only 2 weeks of the launch. We have also centralized the Chief Investment Officer role with Artur Viessmann to provide consistent allocation calls across all client and risk profiles, which have been recently reviewed. This launch coincides with open investments initiative, which we see as a good opportunity for us. As I have previously mentioned, the next phase of XP's growth will be driven by our ability to provide higher quality experience for our clients throughout their financial journeys. Our ongoing enhancements to the solutions we offer are designed to empower our advisors to deliver a smarter and more precise investment advice.

Speaker 1

By optimizing client portfolios to align closely with individual goals, we are raising the bar for what it means to engage in high quality financial planning. We are committed to democratizing access to premium service, broadening our perspective to proactively meet clients' objectives and offer a complete and created set of investment alternatives. These efforts are designed to not only meet but exceed client expectations. This new approach to allocating resource presents great opportunities for revenue generation and increasing lifetime value. As amplifying, how our emphasis on Qualys translates into tangible benefits for Buff, our clients and our business.

Speaker 1

This strategy distinguishes us further from incumbent banks and strengthens our position for continued leadership in the coming years. This quarter, we have introduced new features that integrate our financial planning platform with open investments regulations, creating a positive feedback loop. With our financial planning tools and servicing incentives, clients are encouraged to share their data, enabling us to provide even better service. With client permission, we gain visibility into their entire financial portfolio across XP and other platforms. We have already begun training our advisors on these new capabilities and we expect to complete training across our entire advisor base in the coming quarters.

Speaker 1

Granting XP access to their full financial portfolio is a straightforward process for clients, allowing us to present an integrated and comprehensive view of their investment options. By leveraging our modern financial planning platform, already a differentiator in the market, We provide advisers with tools to offer holistic advice and compare investment opportunities both within XP and across competitors. I want to highlight this as an important differentiator that sets us apart in the market. Currently, we are not aware of any other player implementing strategies similar to ours on the same scale. This initiative represents a big step forward for XP, marking what we like to call the 3rd wave of differentiation.

Speaker 1

This follows our development of the open architecture product platform and the establishment of a more sophisticated and complete distribution channel through our network of IFAs. These innovations underscore our commitment to staying ahead in the industry and continuously improving the value we offer to our clients. Now I will hand it over to Bruno so he can discuss his quarter financials. Thank you. Thanks, Mafra.

Speaker 1

Good evening, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you again. Moving on to next slide. Starting with our core operating KPIs. All three main KPIs for investments, our core, hit record numbers as of Q1 'twenty four, signaling we are on the right path towards our goal to be dominant in investments.

Speaker 1

1, total client assets at R1 1,000,000,000,000 dollars 141,000,000,000 a 20% growth year over year to total active clients at 4,587,000, a 16% growth year over year. And 3, total advisors at 17,700, a 16% growth year over year. Total Advisors' number on the right includes our IFAs or B2B as we call it, already disclosed in our previously quarters, added by internal advisors, our B2C and RIAs, registered investment advisors, which includes consultants and wealth managers among others. We decided to disclose these numbers starting in 2024 because of the growth of other channels beyond IFAs. We believe this number better represents our total distribution capability.

Speaker 1

As you know, the investment advisory profession in Brazil has evolved with XP leading this movement. And different channels to serve the client have appeared and presented relevant growth in recent years. From now on, we are going to present the total number of advisors including all channels. On the left, we can see that total net new money, another important KPI, stood at R15 billion dollars in Q1 'twenty four with retail net new money is slightly better quarter over quarter, moving from plus R12 $1,000,000,000 in Q4 'twenty three to plus R13 $1,000,000,000 in Q1 'twenty four. While lower than its potential, especially considering the actual size of our ecosystem, we believe retail net new money will improve down the road.

Speaker 1

As we keep growing our total advisors, improve the client experience with a powerful financial planning tool as Mahfra already mentioned, invest in our private banking segment also already mentioned and expect less tax exempt credit notes from the incumbent banks due to change in regulation. Of course, there is a macro component which impacts net new money and resilient inflation coupled with still high interest rates don't help. But we see a positive trend going forward considering we are moving towards a better cycle for investments, even acknowledging the pace is probably going to be slower than initially thought. Moving on to the next slide, we are going to take a closer look at our gross revenue. Total gross revenue grew 28% year over year, helped by the diversification of our ecosystem, a strong DCM activity and easy comp with Q1 'twenty three when we had a dysfunctional market due to corporate credit problems in Brazil.

Speaker 1

On the right hand side of the slide, where we can see our gross revenue breakdown, the main highlight is the continued relevance of corporate and issuer services at 12% of total revenue and retail is still representing the majority of our total revenue at 73%. A strong performance from capital markets is reflected in both retail, especially in fixed income and corporate and issuer services. Let's move to the next slide which focus on retail new verticals. New verticals continue to deliver strong growth year over year. In Q1 'twenty four, new verticals revenue stood at R493 million, a 35% growth year over year.

Speaker 1

On a quarter over quarter basis, New Verticals revenue remained almost flat mainly due to the seasonality of cards in Q4, the main contributor to New Verticals revenue. It is worth remembering this number only includes retirement plans, cards, insurance and credit to be consistent with our previous disclosure. If we add digital account, international platform and FX, all of them included in other retail revenue, we would have approximately an additional R100 $1,000,000 in revenue in the Q1. The main highlight here is that the evolution of new verticals underscores our efforts to make the company less cyclical and more importantly enhance the investor experience at XP. Moving on to the next slide, we will talk about our institutional and corporate and issuer services revenue.

Speaker 1

Starting with institutional revenue displayed on the left hand side of the slide, we had a R354 million dollars revenue in Q1 'twenty four, a 7% growth year over year and 14% decrease quarter over quarter, mainly impacted by lower market activity by institutional clients in Brazil sequentially. Now turning to the right hand side of this slide, corporate and issuer services revenue reached R509 $1,000,000 in Q1 'twenty four, a strong growth of 91% year over year and flat quarter over quarter. In the last three quarters sequentially, corporate and issuer services presented revenue north BRL500 1,000,000, reinforcing our strategy to diversify our revenue stream through our wholesale bank and also demonstrating XP is well positioned to continue benefiting from DCM activity in Brazil. Now let's move on to the next slide where we will explore our SG and A and SG SG and A ex incentives reached R1.416 billion dollars in Q1 'twenty four, a growth of 36% year over year and a decrease of 9% quarter over quarter. The growth year over year is mainly explained by 2 facts.

Speaker 1

1, tough comp with Q1 'twenty three when we had very low share based compensation due to the layoffs implemented in that period. And 2, we didn't have model SG and A in Q1 'twenty three. The decrease quarter over quarter can be explained by 1, our continuous focus in efficiency and 2, seasonality of some expenses like marketing and expert event for example. The bottom line, as you can see on the graph in the right, is that our efficiency ratios continue to be close to its lowest levels since IPO, with comp ratio at 25.2% and efficiency ratio at 36.5%. This stability in our expenses ratios underscores the positive operating leverage of our business, which should benefit our EBT in the next years to come.

Speaker 1

Moving on to EBT, Thanks to the operating leverage and efficiency ratios, we have achieved a record EBT number for our Q1 at R1.88 billion dollars a 33% improvement year over year and a 9% improvement quarter over quarter. This brings our pre tax profit margin to 26.9%, a 81 bps growth year over year and 226 bps growth quarter over quarter. Looking ahead, as per our midterm public guidance, we aim to reach a pre tax profit margin between 30% 34% by the end of 2026. This goal underscores our commitment to progressively moving towards these levels. While we may see some volatility on a quarterly basis, as we saw in Q4 'twenty three, for example, it's important to focus on our annual performance or on a last 12 month basis, which we believe better incorporates the seasonality aspects of our business.

Speaker 1

To get there, we expect to see better results at our core in the years to come, benefiting from its operating leverage. And until then, we will keep doing our homework to keep costs under control and enhance the experience and quality of service to our clients. Moving on to our net income, we see similar improvement to what we have discussed with EBT. Net income reached R1.30 billion dollars in Q1 'twenty four, also a historical record for 1st quarter numbers, representing a 29% growth year over year and almost flat quarter over quarter. And net margin stayed at healthy levels in Q1 'twenty four at 25.4%.

Speaker 1

Finally, our return on tangible equity. We kept our annualized return on tangible equity in similar levels of the Q4 'twenty three at 25.4%. This consistency underscores the returns we are able to generate on our tangible equity independently of the macro environment, demonstrating the evolution of our ecosystem and business model. We continue to be diligent about how to allocate capital. Every year we analyze our capital needs, liquid it, it, decide how much of our excess capital we are going to return shareholders.

Speaker 1

This is usually done in the 2nd semester of the year when we also have our budget for the next year. As a company that is profitable, generates cash, is under leveraged and has excess capital, it is reasonable to assume a distribution of capital to shareholders at some point in the 2nd semester of this year. And before I hand the call back to Mafran for his final remarks, I want to touch on our CFO transition as well as the important change that we have implemented from a corporate governance perspective. 1st, this will be my last earnings call as CFO as I transition to a board member role. I'm excited that Vito Mansour will become CFO effective August 1st.

Speaker 1

He's a long term partner of XP, has joined the firm at the same year I did 2012, He's already a member of our executive committee and has worked together with me in the finance team since 2022 as Deputy CFO. He's the natural successor with his strong capabilities and experience to lead the finance organization. I have no doubt in my mind that I'm leaving the role in great hands. On behalf of the board, I'm always pleased with the recently announced change we have made to our corporate governance structure. Following the upcoming annual meeting, we will have a majority independent Board of Directors in line with best in class corporate governance practices.

Speaker 1

We are thrilled to add 4 new independent directors that bring critical skill sets to the board, especially in risk management, banking and credit, as we continue to diversify and grow our business in a dynamic financial landscape. We have also formed 2 new committees: 1, risks, credit and ESG committee and 2, strategy and performance committee that will strength board oversight in areas that are important to the next chapter of growth for XP. With that said, I will now turn it over to Mahfra for his final remarks. Thank you very much. Before I go to my final remarks, I want to take a moment to thank Bruno for his outstanding service as a CFO.

Speaker 1

We are profoundly grateful for his dedication and contributions. Bruno, we look forward to your continued contributions on the Board of Directors and wish you all the best in this new role. So to wrap things up, we have had a strong quarter, especially considering seasonality. We have kept our expense under control and we are confident in our ability to manage the company effectively throughout the year. This disciplined approach positions us well to capitalize on any improvements in the market conditions whenever they arise.

Speaker 1

Additionally, the integration of Open Investments as a catalyst in our financial planning tool is something we are particularly optimistic about creating an opportunity to make our clients' financial lives better, enhancing overall service equality, the 3rd wave of differentiation for XP. Now, let's proceed to the Q and A session.

Operator

Thank you, Mafra. Now, we're going to take your questions. And the first one is from Thiago Batista, UBS. Thiago, now you can make your question.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Farizi. Thanks, Mahfra, Bruno. My first question, Mahfra, you mentioned several times about this tough macro scenario that we have right now. What are in our view the main alternatives that XP has to post a higher EPS in the case of no improvement in the macro scenario that seems more likely now than a couple of months ago? And also, second one, about the net new Monday.

Speaker 2

The total net new Monday of $14,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 in this quarter or $13,000,000,000 for the retail only is probably one of the lowest ever or at least lowest in the last years. Bruno's speech was a bit more positive with the outlook of the net new money. Can you give to us an idea of the evolution of the net new money in the last couple of months, not necessarily with the numbers, but only with the trends, only to see this sense of possible improvement in this net new money. And finally, Bruno, thanks a lot for the partnership in the last couple of years.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Thiago. And Bruno will continue with us forever here. So

Operator

it's here.

Speaker 1

I'll be here. But thank you for your words, John. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

So about your first question, EPS, as we have been talking about our strategy and how we think about the company for the future, the growth, I like to think on the 3 pillars that we have been talking, investments, cross sell and wholesale banking, okay? So these are the 3 pillars. And of course, investments, it's we have been growing, but at a very slow pace compared to the past because of the macro environment. And we have been growing more on cross sell and the wholesale part. Okay?

Speaker 3

So that's how we have been managing to keep growing, of course, at a lower levels that we have been growing 2020, 2021, but we have been growing despite the macro environment is because we have been investing in these new verticals on the wholesale part and diversifying the business. And besides that, we have been controlling costs. So what we have planned for 2024, internally, of course, not the market math or expectations is despite any macro improvement, okay? So, we have prepared the company for 2024, expecting another very tough year as we had in the past 2 years, okay? But at some point, for sure, we will have a better market, we will have operational leverage.

Speaker 3

But for sure, on the first pillar, investments will grow at a slower pace if the macro doesn't change, okay? But we have been investing in new verticals, and we believe we can deliver a good growth, not a spectacular growth despite the macro environment improving or not, okay? So that's my view. And about net new money, yes, I believe that the worst is behind us. But as you mentioned, we are and about like what Bruno said, we are more optimistic today than we were like a year ago or 2 years ago.

Speaker 3

I believe the worst is behind, but it will take some time to recover to levels that we have been seeing again in 2020, 2021. I mentioned a lot about what we have been doing here, diversifying channels, what the wealth managers, the internal advisors and so on to keep growing. We have been investing a lot on financial planning, on delivering another level of service to our clients. So we have been investing a lot on what we call the 3rd wave of differentiation because we live that will pay off, okay? So, and that's the way we believe we will recover net new money, okay?

Speaker 3

And we already see that in some of our numbers. And again, we also see some improvement from the change on the tax exempt notes. Okay. So that's our view.

Speaker 2

Very clear, Mafra. Thanks.

Operator

Next question is from Jorge Kuri, Morgan Stanley. Jorge, you can make your question.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. All of your insights these years. I wanted to ask something. I want to ask about the tax rate. Given the change in the macro landscape that you described before and how that maybe changes the type of business and profit centers that you're going to be booking versus the environment that we thought was going to play out earlier this year.

Speaker 4

How does can you help us understand how does that affect your effective tax rate or not? If more of the business is going to come from the excess capital rather than the capital deployment locally because it's a slower business environment, does that benefit your tax rate? And anything that you can help us get our arms around, How does that look over the next 2 years, if indeed we have sort of like a sluggish equities environment with Selik rates at stock at 10% for the next 18 months, which seems to be the consensus view today? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes, sure. Thank you, Jorge. Yes, regarding the tax rate, we saw a higher tax rate, effective tax rate if we come back with the tax withholdings that we have in funds. It was 18% this quarter, for example, compared to 11% in Q4, 23 17% in Q1, last year. So, if there is more and depends a lot on the mix of the revenue, right?

Speaker 1

So it's hard to forecast the tax rate because we do not know what the mix is going to be. It depends part on the macro, capital market activity, and so forth. But I would say in the next 2 years, if we continue with an environment like the one we are living right now, the Q1 2024 is a good guess. So that's but it's a hard forecast, honestly.

Speaker 4

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Operator

This question is from Renata Maloney, Autonomous Research. Renata, you can make your question.

Speaker 5

Hi, everyone. Thanks for the space for the questions. So mine is on the equity take rate. I wonder if you can give us some more clarity here on the decline this quarter. Was this a mix shift?

Speaker 5

Or maybe the competitive environment is is a bit tougher and you're seeing some declines here in fees? And then some expectation on the trends in the equity take rate if the scenario continues the same? Thank you.

Speaker 1

And the take rate, it was a marginal decrease, right, a few basis points. And that's normal because, again, it's a function of total client assets in the denominator and revenues in the numerator. So there is a little bit of mix, but it's been in the range that we believe is normal in the past years or quarters if you look at it.

Speaker 3

But just to confirm the answer here, there was no change in price, okay? So because you mentioned if we had any price pressure, there was no change in any price. Okay.

Speaker 5

Okay. So you expect stable equity take rates for the rest of the year in this scenario?

Speaker 1

Yeah. Equity take rates. Remember that in the equity bucket, in retail, we have not only brokerage, futures, but we also have, for example, listed funds. So depending on if we have a quarter with, a lot of the listed funds doing, follow ons or even IPOs, then, the take rate could go up. If we don't, it can be less favorable compared to quarters where we have that kind of activity.

Speaker 1

There is also structure notes and structure finance there in that bucket as well. So again, it's more about the mix than, and turnover, mix and the turnover of the equities. You saw that the debts year over year has decreased. So the activity in capital markets, in the velocity turnover, whenever it's weak, then it's, a negative impact, everything else, equal, a negative impact in the, in the equity take rate. If, turnover picks up, it's a positive impact intake rate.

Speaker 1

Thanks.

Operator

Next question is from, Antonio White, Bank of America. Antonio, you can make your question.

Speaker 6

Hey, guys. Thank you for your time. And Bruno, thank you for all your time with us. So I would like to follow-up on Thiago's question on clients. So if you could explore a little bit more on how to serve this client, because my question comes from the decline in NPS.

Speaker 6

So we continue to see on top of inflows, we see weak client additions and decline declining NPS. So what does it reflect in your opinion? And also, would you say that going forward, your revenue expansion tends to come from outside or inside. Do you still have market share gains or should it come much more from the monetization of your own clients? And how have you seen outflows in this scenario?

Speaker 6

Okay. So this is my first question. And also if you could explore a little bit the performance of the IFA commissions in this quarter. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. I would take the first question about the NPS. The decline was 1 point. So it's probably not even like a statistical relevant. Okay.

Speaker 3

So, but, yeah, and at a very high level. So we don't see any, relevant decline on NPS. And so, don't see any problem here. And we should, as we have been investing a lot on quality, increasing the level of service to our customers, the tools, financial planning and so on. We expect to see, in the medium term, an increase on NPS.

Speaker 3

Okay. So, about how we expect to make money if it's internally or externally, it's both of them. When we talk about the first pillar, it's investments. It's, again, about gaining market share, but also if we have a market recover, here we will increase revenues. So they are like 2 main catalysts here.

Speaker 3

We kept growing market share in the past years despite the macro environment and we'll keep growing, okay? And also, as Bruno mentioned, if we have a recovery, we'll see people moving from low fees products to more risk on products. So we should see an increase on take rate. Okay. So that's how we grow in investments.

Speaker 3

And then we have the cross sell part. That's basically how we cross sell products. Okay? Now we have dozens of products here that we can sell to our investor clients. Okay.

Speaker 3

So basically what we have been reporting on the new verticals, of course, we have some other products that are not included on the new verticals, but we have been talking about them, explicitly. And so we should increase the ARPU in the next quarters, okay? So both internally and externally, market share plus cross sell.

Speaker 1

Regarding your second question about the commission costs, it's in expected, I would say, number considering percentage of net revenue, for example. So we have oscillations among quarters, but it's not irrelevant. If you take the Q1 'twenty three, for example, our total commission costs represented 22% of net revenue. If you look at last quarter, Q4 2023, it represented 20% of net revenue in this quarter, 21%. So it's inside a natural band.

Speaker 1

And what explains that fluctuation is one thing, mix. So it depends on the mix. We can have higher percentage of net revenue or lower percentage of net revenue.

Speaker 6

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. Next question is from Neha Aargawala from HSBC. Neha, you can make your question.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Just quickly on the open finance initiative that you you have received in that? And you mentioned that you don't see most of the competitors making it utilizing utilizing that. But once they do, do you see that as a hindrance for your platform?

Speaker 7

So just discussing a bit more the dynamics from open investments. And second question is on costs. So you continue to maintain cost discipline, but are there any more levers for pulling down the cost to income ratio? Or are we kind of done here and this is the level that we should continue we should expect going forward?

Speaker 1

You broke up. Sorry, Nihir. So the first question is about the financial planning.

Speaker 7

Open investments, yes. Open investments. That and how the competition is behaving. And second one is on the costs. Do you have any other cost lever?

Speaker 7

Or should we expect this kind of cost to revenue ratio kind of continue going forward?

Speaker 3

Got it. Yeah. About open investment, we just released the 2 to our IFAs, internal advisors and clients. So it's at a very early stage. But the beauty for us is what we have been doing when we talk about financial planning is, we have replicate the level of service that only high and ultra high clients usually have at private banking to all our clients.

Speaker 3

Okay? So we have created and we have been developing this system for the past year. We just released financial planning system and open investments together. So the beauty here is you have a completely different conversation with your clients because it's not you're trying to sell a product or only trying to sell a product or a portfolio, but you are selling a service. Okay?

Speaker 3

So you really understand their needs, their goals, their lifetime, their objectives and so on. And then you help them to get there. Okay? So it's a much broader conversation. And where Open Investments get here, because once they give, they allow us to go to the banks and get all the information we see all the portfolio.

Speaker 3

Okay? So we have been doing that for, I would say 2 to 3 weeks now. And the results, they are quite impressive. Okay, the level of conversation and engagement with the clients, but it's too soon to give a number or any stream achieved about AU Sears or something. But we are very optimist about the tools and especially with the new service that we are providing to our clients.

Speaker 7

And this, the service, if I could follow-up, the service is all digital and there's no extra expenditure that you have to make to provide this better quality service. And do you still think that your service is much superior than the incumbents or have the incumbents kind of closed the gap in terms of service level that you provide?

Speaker 3

I like to say that we have 3 waves of differentiation here at XP. The first one back in 2010 was product, the first open platform. The second one that we still have a huge differentiation is distribution. We have a much bigger, Salesforce, dedicated to investments, better, trained, a 100% focused on investments. Okay.

Speaker 3

So we still have a big differentiation here, but we are working on the 3rd wave of differentiation that's not selling products, but selling a completely different service. Okay? I would say that the banks, the incumbent banks, they are trying to replicate the first two waves. Of course, they open the platform, okay, but they still sell 80%, 85% of their own products on the client's portfolio, okay? And they are trying to replicate the distribution, training people, and creating specialized people on investments.

Speaker 3

But again, I believe we are already opening the gap again on the 3rd wave of differentiation here. We have been training about the costs that you mentioned. The cost here is we have to train or retrain all the IFA network, the internal advisors. We have invest a lot on technology because it's a high scaled business here. So of course, it's very easy to do that, a very good job on financial planning when you're working with only high net worth individuals.

Speaker 3

But when you do that for 5,000,000 clients, it's not so easy. So we have been training a lot of people. We have developed tools, technology, and again, what we call financial planning plus open investments, for example. We just centralized the CIO figured on Arthur Wieschmann. We

Speaker 1

recreate all the segments in the company and Arthur is giving all the allocations calls to all the segments and just financial planning tools. They give the correct allocation, they rebalance the portfolios and so on. Okay? So it's a completely different service

Speaker 3

from what you can get on the incumbent banks. Of course, again, if you are a high net worth client, for sure, you have the service in any bank. Okay? But if you have, if you are affluent or if you have only a few 1,000 US dollars, you don't have the service, okay, in order to place the NXP.

Speaker 1

Here, Nia, is to do what Mahfra explained at scale. That's the main challenge. We just released in this quarter, our total number of advisors, more than 17,000 advisors, talking about investments, which is a complex topic, especially if you are going into financial planning. And make that at scale with the quality and service that we want to achieve, that's the challenge. But we believe we have all the tools to make it happen.

Speaker 1

And your second question, it was about the costs. Yes, we look, last year, we mentioned that for this year, you should look more at the 2nd semester SG and A than the 1st semester, mainly because of Modal. We didn't have Modal in the 1st semester. We had it in the 2nd semester. Now everything is integrated.

Speaker 1

It's only XP now. And the level of SG and A that you saw in the Q1, Of course, there will be volatility among quarters. But when we look throughout the year, our expectation is to keep costs under control, as Mafra mentioned in his speech. In this slide, during the presentation, I also mentioned just that we have some seasonality, which is how our company works. So for example, we will have expert events in the Q3.

Speaker 1

We will have higher marketing expenses throughout the year compared to the Q1 because there is seasonality there. But overall, the efficiency ratio should be close to the lowest levels going forward as well.

Operator

Next question is from Vladimir Gresbaum, JPMorgan. Vladimir, you can make your question.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Farisi, Mafra, Bruno. Thank you for the call. Two questions on our side. The first one is related to net asset value. I think you guys departed from SEK 9,900,000,000 in the Q4.

Speaker 8

You printed SEK 1,000,000,000 profit, so it was supposed to go up to SEK 10,900,000,000 but I see this number actually declined to 9,400,000,000 in NAV this quarter. So it's a 1,600,000,000 gap. We were taking a look here on the notes. I know that you spent something close to €700,000,000 in IFA, probably the brokerage of select IFAs, but still close to 1,000,000,000 here in net NAV being burned. Just want to understand the breach, what exactly drove this declining NAV?

Speaker 8

And then the second question is related to energy. You published here an adjustment on the financial assets that is related to energy, has been growing a lot quarter over quarter, dollars 3,600,000,000 to be precise. Just want to make sure I understand what exactly you mean by energy assets, if you can explain just what you booked there and what the $3,600,000,000 mean in the context of the energy trading business? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes, sure. I can take those two questions. So the NAV, it's basically, 1st, remember that there is part of this variation that is explained by seasonality, especially in the Q1 and Q3 as well, but most in the Q1 because of tax and bonuses payments. So tax and bonuses payments in the Q1 24 net presented almost close to R800 1,000,000 deduction of the NAV. Right?

Speaker 1

So that coupled with the close to R700 1,000,000 that you highlighted in investments that we made that had a cash disbursement. The investments were made at the end of last year, but the cash disbursement happened in the Q1 this year that that's from the NAV as well because you change the lines, right? So it's not a financial asset anymore. It becomes an investment. So those 3 components altogether, Guilherme, the investments, tax and bonuses, they are close to BRL 1,500,000,000 in this quarter.

Speaker 1

So mainly explains the variation that you asked for. Regarding the energy, it's basically energy prepayment. We have a energy desk in XP. So it's a loan book that is not in the loan operations, right? Because it's a merchant.

Speaker 1

It's not a financial asset the way it's considered by accounting standards, but it's a loan book. It's basically prepayment against AAA corporate, clients that we have, and resell, yes. So that's basically it.

Speaker 8

Okay, super clear. Thank you, Bruno. The

Operator

next question is from Tito Abarta, Goldman Sachs. Tito, you can make your question.

Speaker 9

Hi, good evening, Mahfar, Bruno, Harisi. Thanks for the call for taking my question. And best of luck, luck Bruno. Thanks for all the help over the years. A couple of questions also.

Speaker 9

1, first on the midterm EBT margin of 30% to 34%. How dependent was that on rates coming down in Brazil? Just kind of going back to when you gave that guidance, you're probably expecting lower rates. Does potentially these higher rates for longer impact that guidance in any way? Would it leave you closer to the lower end of the guidance?

Speaker 9

Just to think about what kind of macro you were thinking about when you gave us the guidance? And then second question, just on the cards revenues, down a little bit in the quarter. I know there's some seasonality there, but it is the Q1 where you see a slight decline. Is that a sign that you're beginning to mature in that vertical and growth going forward could be closer to the industry, just to think how we should take that seasonality and potential future growth in the card revenues? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yeah. I can take the EBIT margin here. Remember in the Investor Day, we said we gave the guidance for 2026. And we said, it probably will not be a straight line. So it's more like an exponential, right?

Speaker 1

So our embedded assumptions to give that guidance is that, as Mahfra mentioned at the beginning of this Q and A, we expected another tough year in 2024. Maybe it's gonna be, I don't know, a little bit worse than our expectation, a little bit better. But so far it's on track with our plan. It's too early to tell. There is part of that operating leverage kicking in that should help the EBIT margin.

Speaker 1

That's for sure. So the 30% to 34% by 2026, If we continue until 2026 with the same macro environment we are, as of today, it's going to be really tough to achieve. That's, for sure. But we expect to have, a different scenario. It doesn't have to be a scenario where you have very low interest rates and the capital markets equity is booming.

Speaker 1

That's not embedded in our assumptions. It's just more normalized capital markets activity, having a little bit of IPOs. How many IPOs have we had last year? How many this year? 0.

Speaker 1

So we are in an environment that we believe is not going to stay like that, for the next couple of years, right, Tito? So, there is an assumption of better macro environment, but nothing really aggressive.

Speaker 3

Just to compliment Bruno here, we are confident that we are going to deliver the year 1, 2024, okay? So we are going according to the plan so far. And of course, we have a good visibility for the rest of the year. So we are confident that we are going to deliver 2024, okay? And if you look the numbers that we showed for on the Investor Day, especially when you look investments, the CAGR was 13%, okay?

Speaker 3

So it was already a very low number, okay? Imagine that the interest rate is 10%, 9%, okay, for this period, okay, it's March 10 plus, if you look at the curve right now. So it means that we have to gain some market share. Okay. Because the AUC will grow the CELIC rate on average and we have to gain some market share.

Speaker 3

So for me, the macro environment, if the of course, it's gonna be harder than a good macro environment, but it doesn't change the plan. If you go to the other two pillars, cross sell and wholesale banking, then we have 30% to 30% high%, okay? 30% to 35%, 37 percent CAGR, and we are delivering. So we are confident. Going to your point about cards, as you mentioned, you have a big seasonality on the Q1 every year, okay?

Speaker 3

And I would say that probably we're not growing at the same pace that we have been growing in the past years, for sure. But if you look at the penetration that we have, we have a 1,000,000 cards. Okay. And we have 5,000,000 customers. Okay.

Speaker 3

Rounding the number here. So we still have a lot of clients to penetrate, of course, different risk profiles. But when you compare to OpenSea and to the market, we have very good 5,000,000 clients. So at the right point, at the right time, we are going like to penetrate these clients. But so we still have a very good pool inside the house here like true penetrate cards.

Speaker 3

So it's not the end of the growth, but we will grow at the slower pace than at the very beginning, okay?

Speaker 9

Okay. No, that's clear, Marfa. Thank you. And thanks again, Bruno, and best of luck to you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Tido.

Operator

Thank you, Mafra. Thank you, Bruno. Our Q and A session came to an end. If you have any further questions, the IR team is available. Thank you so much for attending our earnings call this evening and we see all of you or we talk to you in the next one.

Operator

Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
XP Q1 2024
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