Kohl's Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 30, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Kohl's Corporation First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. All participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' remarks, we will have a question and answer session. It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Mark Rupe, SVP of IR and Treasury.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Certain statements made on this call, including projected financial results and the company's future initiatives, are forward looking statements. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which could cause Kohl's actual results to differ materially from those projected in such forward looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those that are described in Item 1A in Kohl's most recent Annual Report on Form 10 ks and as may be supplemented from time to time in Kohl's other filings with the SEC, all of which are expressly incorporated herein by reference. Forward looking statements relate to the date initially made, and Kohl's undertakes no obligation to update them.

Speaker 1

In addition, during this call, we may make reference to non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures can be found in the investor presentation filed as an exhibit to our Form 8 ks filed with the SEC and is available on the company's Investor Relations website. Please note that this call will be recorded. However, replays of this call will not be updated. So if you're listening to a replay of this call, it's possible that the information discussed is no longer current, and Kohl's undertakes no obligation to update such information.

Speaker 1

With me this morning are Tom Kingsbury, our CEO and Jill Timm, our Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter results did not meet our expectations and are not reflective of the direction we are heading with our strategic initiatives. We knew the Q1 would be our toughest comparison of the year. This was predominantly due to last year's That said, we expected our regular price business to offset this headwind. Regular price sales were strong through the 1st 8 weeks of the quarter, though softened in late March and into April, especially for our spring seasonal product.

Speaker 2

And while regular price sales did increase low single digits in the first quarter, their best quarterly comp performance since 2018, they were below our expectations. With the clearance headwind now behind us, we expect our performance will improve, building on our positive regular price trends driven by our early success in new categories and continued growth in Sephora. We are also effectively managing inventory controlling our expenses, which resulted in gross margin expansion and an SG and A decline in the quarter. However, there are areas of opportunity that we are actively addressing, including our active and jewelry businesses. We continue to have high conviction in our strategy.

Speaker 2

Supported by the traction we are gaining in our key growth areas as well as the increase we are seeing in the number of new customers. That said, as Joe will discuss in more detail, our updated fiscal year guidance reflects the Q1 underperformance and a more conservative outlook given the ongoing uncertainty in the consumer environment. As it relates to the consumer backdrop, our customers continue to be pressured by a number of economic factors including high interest rates and inflation. While spending among our high income customers has remained steady, our middle income customer continues to be impacted. In this environment, we are working hard to deliver even more value, recognizing that the discretionary spend of our customers is pressured.

Speaker 2

Part of this is having a strong private brand portfolio, which positions us well as the consumer is looking for value. While navigating what remains a challenging consumer backdrop, we remain focused on executing against our 4 strategic priorities, which are enhancing the customer experience, accelerating and simplifying our value strategies, managing inventory and expenses with discipline and further strengthening our balance sheet. Over the past year, we have implemented a significant amount of change across the organization to reposition our business. Efforts of this scale take time. As I look at our progress against these priorities, we are executing well against 2, managing inventory and expenses tightly and strengthening our balance sheet by reducing our long term debt.

Speaker 2

When it comes to enhancing the customer experience and simplifying our value strategies, we are making progress but continue to have opportunities in front of us. Taking a step back, let me start with what's working. Sephora at Kohl's continues to deliver exceptional results. In Q1, Sephora sales increased 60%, including greater than 20% comparable beauty sales growth and better than expected contribution from shops opened in the past year. We saw especially strong growth in our skin care, bath and body and fragrance offering, driven in part by the continued success of brands such as Sol De Janeiro and Sephora Collection.

Speaker 2

In 2024, we will open 140 Sephora shops, of which the majority will open in Q2, And we will end the year with Sephora in approximately 1050 stores. Sephora continues to be an important driver of our new customer acquisition. We are also continuing to attract a younger, more diverse customer who shops more frequently as we have expanded Sephora across our store base. In addition to Sephora, we are also making progress in building our presence in underpenetrated categories, including home, gifting and impulse and look forward to the launch of Babies R Us. We outlined these collectively as a $2,000,000,000 plus sales opportunity for us in the coming years.

Speaker 2

We continue to have confidence in our ability to achieve this target. In home, while the category underperformed the company average, we did deliver incremental sales from our growth initiatives in Decor and Pet. In home decor, we are seeing the initial benefits from our expanded assortment and marketing investments with sales of seasonal and everyday decor up more than 30% in Q1. New areas like wall art, lighting and glassware have been well received. And in Pet, sales increased more than 100% in the quarter benefiting from last year's assortment expansion.

Speaker 2

In gifting, sales increased more than 30% with strong performances across Valentine's Day and Easter. And more recently, we were pleased with the performance of our Mother's Day gifting presentation. And in Impulse, sales grew more than 60% as we introduced queuing lines in nearly 100 stores during Q1. We expect continued growth in gifting and impulse going forward. We have invested in more receipts around key gifting events such as Father's Day as well as Americana merchandise to celebrate the Memorial Day and July 4th holidays.

Speaker 2

In addition, we will add dedicated queuing lines to 250 more stores to reach more than 1 third of our store base by year end. We also continue to be excited about our upcoming partnership with BabiesRUs. This partnership allows us to serve the family in a more complete way during an important period of their lives by creating a meaningful presence in the baby gear category. Baby gear is a large category that has seen disruption in the competitive landscape in recent years. Kohl's new commitment to this space represents a significant growth opportunity and broadens our reach with younger customers.

Speaker 2

We will open Baby's R Us shops in approximately 200 Kohl's stores in Q3, which will coincide with the launch of our online presence. It's also important to mention that we are making progress in some areas of our apparel and footwear business. We have seen the most progress in our efforts to build our polished casual and dress wear offering across categories. This is most evident in the positive underlying trends we are seeing in our women's business. In Q1, regular price sales were up 3% in women's, which indicates that the newness we are introducing is resonating with our customers.

Speaker 2

One example of this is our dress business, where the customer response has been very favorable. Dresses is an area we identified as a large opportunity for Kohl's and for those that have visited our stores recently, you'll likely notice a much greater dress presence. We launched a dedicated in store dress shop in 700 of our stores and will expand the offering in Q2, supporting continued sales momentum. In our efforts to amplify polished casual more broadly are working, we have leaned into Lauren Conrad and Simply Vera Vera Wang and have seen solid reception with both brands delivering positive growth in the quarter. We are also seeing positive regular price sales in our juniors business.

Speaker 2

This is an area where a lot of change is happening and we've introduced market brands to better react to fashion trends. To build our efforts, we are repositioning the Junior's offering next to Sephora in stores to better capitalize on cross shopping opportunities. Overall, we are pleased with the direction of our women's business as it is instrumental in driving business across other categories. In addition to women's, we have seen solid demand for men's suiting, dress shirts and dress pants as well as kids dresses and suitings. We've also seen casual and dress footwear perform well in both of these areas.

Speaker 2

Moving beyond product, let me share some of our other initiatives that are working. First, our efforts to simplify our value strategies have shown early signs of success. We are seeing positive signals through our customers' insight work with more customers agreeing that Kohl's is delivering great value. In February, we scaled high volume pricing across our private brand offering, which has been received positively by customers. Also during Q1, we increased the number of targeted offers to our loyalty customers and continue to leverage Kohl's cash as a key differentiator.

Speaker 2

And we amplify the messaging around rewards for our loyalty program and Kohl's credit card to drive greater enrollment. Collectively, these actions helped us drive an increase in new customer acquisition in the Q1 and higher enrollment and reduction rates in our loyalty program, all of which are positive indicators of future engagement. With that said, we know our most loyal customers are most sensitive to our promotions and therefore, we will ensure that we continue to bring value to these customers with targeted promotions and personalized offers while we continue forward with our strategy to simplify value. 2nd, we are successfully managing inventory and expenses with discipline. Inventory in Q1 was down 13% as we continue to benefit from our disciplines where we operate with greater flexibility and open to buy.

Speaker 2

This led to an increase in the inventory turn despite the lower sales. We will continue to target inventory declines in the mid single digits percent range with a focus on driving inventory turns. And we controlled expenses tightly across the organization, resulting in a slight decline as compared to last year even as we invest in marketing and our new growth initiatives, including new Sephora shops and imports queuing lines. And 3rd, we are further strengthening the balance sheet. In Q1, our revolver borrowings of $355,000,000 were down significantly from $765,000,000 in the prior year.

Speaker 2

This level was in line with our expectation despite lower than anticipated sales as strong inventory management benefited cash flow. In Q2, we will reduce long term debt by $113,000,000 by executing a make whole call on our May 2025 notes, which Shiloh will discuss in more detail. So we are making solid progress across several of our initiatives. We are delivering incremental growth in new underpenetrated categories in Sephora as well as in portions of our apparel and footwear offerings. In addition, we are managing inventory and expense with discipline and further strengthening the balance sheet.

Speaker 2

Now let me discuss some of the headwinds we faced in the quarter in areas of opportunity for us going forward. As I mentioned at the outset of this call, clearance is a major drag on our comp sales performance in Q1 as we lapped last year's elevated activity. This was a unique headwind that weighed heavily on results across our apparel and footwear businesses and especially in active, juniors and kids. Importantly, this headwind is now behind us as our clearance sales normalize following the Q1 of 2023. In addition, we experienced softer demand in spring seasonal product, dampening what otherwise was a strong positive trend in our regular price sales through the 1st 8 weeks of the quarter.

Speaker 2

Categories including tees, shorts and tanks were uniquely challenged impacting our men's and kids businesses, which have historically been sensitive to seasonal transitions. In addition to these headwinds, we also identified areas of opportunity for us going forward. The first area is active, which accounted for the majority of the overall sales decline in the quarter. Clearance is a major factor in the active decline and was felt most significantly in our men's and kids businesses. We continue to work with our brand partners to increase newness in the back half of the year and we are leaning into our value oriented private brands, Flex and Tech Gear, which performed well in the Q1.

Speaker 2

Flex apparel was especially strong, growing in excess of 50% as we further expanded the brand to all stores. We see a long runway of growth for Flex as we build awareness for this very affordable athleisure brand that is building a solid reputation with customers. The second area is accessories. Over the past few years, as we made space for Sephora in our stores, we did not do a good job of retaining our jewelry sales, which have been on a consistent sales decline. We know there is still an opportunity to offer jewelry to our customers, especially during key events and holidays in the year.

Speaker 2

We are currently working to reestablish our presence, which will include expanding our in store assortment and improving in store positioning by placing it near Sephora. We will also have a stronger presence in jewelry during the holiday season. The 3rd area is our legacy home offering. During the first quarter, select areas within our Home business underperformed with softness in the kitchen electrics, floor care and bedding. To improve results, we are increasing newness in kitchen electrics as well as introducing new brands and ensuring we are providing excellent value to our customers across bedding and floor care.

Speaker 2

And lastly, it's important that we continue to drive traffic across our omni channel platform. In Q1, store sales slightly outperformed digital sales, though both declined given the headwinds I discussed. However, transactions in each channel improved as we move past the clearance headwind. Looking ahead, we expect store performance to benefit from our growth initiatives, which are highlighted in stores. And in digital, we will continue to reinforce our value simplification in all communication and scale new targeting initiatives, while also improving the search and product recommendation capabilities of our site to drive increased traffic and higher conversion.

Speaker 2

I will now summarize my comments today, and I want to leave you with 3 things. 1st, our Q1 results were not up to our expectations. Clearance was a major headwind to overall comparable sales and demand softened in late March and into April, especially for our spring seasonal product. However, regular price sales increased low single digits, and we are actively addressing the areas of opportunity identified in the quarter. Importantly, the clearance headwind is now behind us, and we have confidence in our ability to address the opportunities we laid out.

Speaker 2

2nd, many key areas of our strategy are working. Sephora at Kohl's has maintained a strong growth momentum, and we are driving incremental sales in home decor, gifting and impulse, and we are seeing positive underlying trends in our women's business. And during the balance of the year, we will open more than 100 additional Sephora shops, expand Impulse queuing lines to an additional 2 50 stores and launch our Babies R Us partnership in 200 stores and online. For these reasons, we remain confident in our strategic initiatives. And third, the underlying structure of our business remains sound.

Speaker 2

While we work to drive top line sales growth, we are managing inventory effectively, expanding gross margin and tightly controlling expenses. We are also demonstrating our commitment to returning capital to shareholders through the dividend and strengthening the balance sheet by reducing long term debt. Repositioning a business of this size is not a simple task and I want to recognize our associates across stores, distribution centers and corporate for their continued resilience and dedication to improving Kohl's results. I will now turn over the call to Jill to discuss our Q1 results and outlook for 2024.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. For today's call, I will provide additional details on our Q1 results as well as an update on our fiscal year 2024 guidance. Net sales decreased 5.3% in Q1. Comparable sales declined 4.4%. As Tom indicated, clearance was a significant headwind in the Q1, representing more than a 600 basis point drag on comp sales.

Speaker 3

Stores slightly outperformed digital in the quarter with both down to last year. Other revenue, which is primarily our credit business, decreased 5.7% in the quarter as loss rates increased year over year in line with our expectations. Now let me turn to the rest of the P and L. Gross margin in Q1 was 39.5 percent, an increase of 48 basis points. The improvement year over year was driven primarily by strong inventory management and lower freight expense.

Speaker 3

SG and A expenses declined approximately 1% to $1,200,000,000 in the first quarter. As we continue to control expenses tightly across the organization, we're also investing in marketing and our new growth initiatives, including new Zevora shops and impulse queuing lines. Depreciation expense in the Q1 was $188,000,000 flat to last year. Interest expense was $83,000,000 in the quarter, down $1,000,000 from last year. Net loss for the quarter was $27,000,000 and loss per diluted share was $0.24 Now under the balance sheet and cash flow.

Speaker 3

We ended Q1 with $228,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents. Inventory at quarter end declined 13% compared to last year. As we have discussed in past quarters, inventory management has been a key focus of ours with the goal of increasing churn, which we're able to do in the Q1. Our new disciplines once again allowed us to operate with greater flexibility and manage inventory more efficiently. Operating cash flow was a use of $7,000,000 significantly better than last year's use of $202,000,000 driven by effective inventory management.

Speaker 3

And adjusted free cash flow was negative $154,000,000 in the first quarter. Now let me provide an update on our capital allocation priorities. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $126,000,000 For the full year 2024, we continue to expect CapEx to be approximately $500,000,000 which includes investment in impulse queuing lines, Sephora small shop openings, the launch of Babies R Us partnership and new store openings. Strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders also remain top priorities. We ended the Q1 with $355,000,000 on a revolver, down from $765,000,000 last year.

Speaker 3

Our goal in 2024 remains paying down our revolver balance, rebuilding our cash position and capitalizing on opportunities to reduce debt. Earlier this month, we provided notice to the holders of our May 2025 notes that we'll be executing a May call call on them in mid June. As a result, we will take out the 10.75 percent note totaling $113,000,000 which will result in an approximate $4,500,000 pre tax charge or $0.03 per diluted share in Q2 with subsequent interest savings going forward. This action not only lowers the average interest rate on our outstanding debt, but also reduces the amount of maturities coming due in 2025. We expect to end the year with $1,500,000,000 in total debt.

Speaker 3

Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor our options with respect to the July 2025 notes and we'll likely address them closer to maturity given the favorable coupon rate. As for shareholder returns, maintaining our dividend at its current level remains a priority. In Q1, we distributed $55,000,000 in dividends to our shareholders. As previously disclosed, the Board on May 15th declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share payable to shareholders on June 26. Now let me share some detail on our updated outlook for 2024.

Speaker 3

As you've heard this morning, we are making progress against many of our key strategic initiatives. We are also working to address several opportunities identified in Q1. We are approaching our financial outlook for the year more conservatively given the Q1 underperformance and the ongoing uncertainty in the consumer environment. For the full year, we currently expect net sales to be in the range of 2% decrease to a 4% decrease versus 2023. Comparable sales to be in the range of a 1% decrease to a 3% decrease.

Speaker 3

This implies a comp flat to down 2% for the balance of the year. We continue to expect gross margin to expand 40 to 50 basis points and SG and A dollars to be down 1% to 1.5% for the year. We expect operating margins to be in the range of 3% to 3.5% and EPS to be in the range of $1.25 to 1 $0.85 As a reminder, our guidance includes the potential impact from the CFPB late fee rule assuming it's effective August 1st. While this rule is currently being challenged, we will continue to monitor development and we'll provide an update when appropriate in the future. In closing, I want to reiterate that our underlying financial structure remains solid.

Speaker 3

We are expanding gross margin through effective inventory management and managing expenses with discipline. And we continue to strengthen our balance sheet by reducing long term debt. With that, Tom and I are happy to take your questions at this time.

Operator

Our first question comes from Bob Drbul from Guggenheim. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi. Good morning. Tom, I was just sorry. I was just wondering if you could just talk some more just around the, I guess, the general confidence in the strategy on a go forward basis. And I think when you think of some of the challenges that you're seeing within your own business and even within the industry?

Speaker 2

Okay. As the prepared remarks indicated, we feel very good about what we have in terms of our overall strategy. We're going to tweak things along the way. I think when you look at the Q1 results, the clearance headwind really hurt us, 600 basis points. So we had a strong performance in our regular price business, which obviously is important especially for go forward.

Speaker 2

But fundamentally, things that are working as part of our strategy, Sephora is still working very well with a 60% total growth and 20% comp. And we've done very well in categories in the home, which are part of our major strategies like seasonal and everyday decor. Our pet business is good, our gifting business is good, impulse is good. We've made a lot of progress in our apparel businesses by growing the polished casual and dress business really across the board. Our value strategies are working, our high volume pricing has worked very nicely.

Speaker 2

We've gotten a lot of positive feedback from our customers. And we're doing a good job of managing our inventories and expense. And so those fundamentals are still in place. And Jill talked about reducing our long term debt. But we have work to do though, candidly, even though we feel our strategy is a good one, but we need to do a better job in rebuilding our active business.

Speaker 2

It's one of our priorities overall. The accessory business, our jewelry business is a huge, huge opportunity for us. We've lost a lot of business with the Sephora rollout overall. And some of the legacy businesses in home such as floor care and bedding and kitchen electrics underperform. So we're working hard on that to bring in more newness in that.

Speaker 2

And then we're working hard to drive traffic in stores and in digital. So but long answer, but we feel good about what's happening and we feel good that the clearance headwinds, we took a ton of markdowns in the Q4 of 2022 to clean all the inventory up. So obviously, that was a huge headwind for us in the Q1.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Oliver Chen from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi, Tom and Jill. A lot of helpful comments. Why do you think the clearance impact was worse than you had originally guided to? And as you think about the biggest needle movers going forward, it sounded like Junior's active apparel jewelry. What will really drive the comp better as we think about guidance and what should happen sequentially in the back half?

Speaker 5

And a follow-up with your comp guidance for the quarter, What's assumed for June July relative to May? And are you thinking that traffic will be negative, positive or flattish? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. I'll start. And just for clarification, it wasn't clearance that I think we got wrong on the guide. It was just it was a big headwind in the quarter. I think that was unique to us.

Speaker 3

And what we did is we started the quarter well with our reg price business incredibly strong and it was offsetting the clearance headwinds. And so as we came out to the market, we felt really good with the initiatives and the momentum behind those to help offset clearance. As we moved into the latter part, the late part of March and into April, we saw a slowdown in our reg price selling, particularly around our spring seasonal goods. And that became the headwind that we couldn't overcome to get back into that flattish comp that we had guided to. And so that really was what happened in the quarter.

Speaker 3

I think fundamentally the company still did well. We managed the inventory when that's a lot of new discipline. In the past we wouldn't have had to being down 13% in inventory when we saw the sales decline really is a testament to that new muscle that we have. That obviously helped drive our margin and we were able to hit our margin. And then we pulled back on expenses.

Speaker 3

So our expenses actually came in better than we had anticipated because we were able to react. So I think that just goes to the testament of this organization and the agility we have when we do have some of those misses on the top line. But really it came to that reg price slowdown. So then if I go to the comp guidance for Q2, obviously not going to speak to the months and how we're guiding. But what I would say is when we saw improvement in our business once we got through the clearance impact, we saw a lot of that come through our traffic and transactions.

Speaker 3

And that was actually relatively flat as we went into March April. So we do see that we are gaining those steps in the momentum, but we also know the company's the customer is a little bit more discerning out there. So we have to make sure we're putting our first best step forward with that value, which you know Kohl's is known for and that's what we're going to go ahead and do. May did start out a little slow like April ended, but what I will say is that we are progressing. We're seeing ourselves pick up, particularly in that spring seasonals, so it's coming a little bit later.

Speaker 3

We continue to see the momentum and the strategic initiatives that Tom has outlined, And that's what's really helping us drive back to say that rest of the year will be flat to down 2%. But we're still being mindful of the uncertainty in the consumer and the macro environment.

Speaker 2

Yes. And to answer the question about what's going to drive the comps, as I mentioned before, Sephora obviously is going to help us a lot. The balance the 140 shops will be rolled out by the end of the second quarter. So that should help us a lot. Building on our underpenetrated categories, as I mentioned before, our decor business is up 30%, pet was up 100, gifting up 30, impulse up 60.

Speaker 2

We opened up 100 impulse queuing lines in the Q1. We have another 50 that we're rolling out in the second quarter and 200 in the Q3. So obviously that based on the performance of that, that'll be good. And we're doing well in juniors from a regular price perspective with all the new market brands that we're introducing. The women's dress business has been very, very strong.

Speaker 2

Men's suitings has been very good as well. One of the things that we're working diligently on, as I mentioned, is how to rebuild our active business to the level that we want it to be. But it was really negatively impacted by a significant amount of clearance in the Q1 as well. We ended inventories at the end of 2022 high inactive. But so we have a lot of things that are working that are going to help the comps overall.

Speaker 2

And obviously, we're working diligently on that.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Best regards.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Oliver.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Altschwager from Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. So the 600 basis point headwind on the lower clearance, how much of that would you categorize as somewhat one time as you cycled last year's actions? And how should we think about that moving forward? I guess you continue to manage inventory very lean.

Speaker 6

So, would it be fair to think that reduced clearance product availability would be a headwind moving forward? And then, I mean, bigger picture, do you think you're losing a cohort of your customer base to other retailers as you manage to this much lower level of clearance product? And what are you doing to reengage that customer and make sure they still see value in the overall assortment with that clearance product no longer being there to such an extent?

Speaker 2

Well, first of all, the clearance levels going into 2023, it's totally unique. It was a once in a lifetime clearance level because of trying to clean everything up as we went into 2023. So it's highly distorted. As a percent of total of our business, it was obviously larger than ever. So we never want to get to that level.

Speaker 2

We want to sell the appropriate amount of clearance, but we're focused on regular price as well. But the situation going into 2023 was totally unique and we're never going to get to those levels. It's always going to be part of our business, but reducing our inventories overall as we were down 13% at the end of the first quarter, we're not going to have as much clearance. And we're going to go after the customer with building our Sephora business and building our underdeveloped, under penetrated categories in home. We're going to go after gifting.

Speaker 2

We're going to go after impulse. We're going to continue to broaden our mix in apparel to include even more polished casual and dress. So we have a lot more than clearance. You don't want to pivot or you just don't want to have a business that has an underlying huge clearance position because that just shows I mean those are mistakes. So we want to focus on the regular price business.

Speaker 3

Yes. So I think just to summarize it, I would assess the whole $600,000,000 mark as really kind of a one time to Tom's point coming off of what I would say is a highly unique one time situation of clearing out the inventory. And we're going to have the regular balance of clearance going forward. So I think it's not a headwind, it's not a tailwind because it's just as Tom mentioned part of the business. And that's really how we looked at it when we gave the guidance.

Speaker 3

I think the other thing is the newness we're bringing in and it's really working. And that's really that discovery element that we're bringing with these market brands and having a faster turn, which we were able to improve our turn quite significantly in the quarter. And that's really what we're looking to do is making the reg price inventory harder for us. It's a better margin. We can deliver newness more frequently.

Speaker 3

So it's really just a better model that we are moving into, which will be a healthier business for us to be in and really deliver for the customer, but not for lack of value. We're still going to have value. We're just not going to find it on the clearance rack. You're going to find it when you come in and find new brands, brands you're not expecting and having it at a great price.

Speaker 6

Thank you. And Jill, with the reduced comp outlook for the year, can you speak to any incremental opportunities you see on the cost side of the equation? And then is the 7% to 8% still the right way to think about longer term and just any help in bridging the kind of that 400 basis points of expansion versus what you're planning for this year? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Absolutely. I think we held our margin. So we're still in the 40% to 50%, which I think puts us over that 37% mark, which we spoke about as being at the high end of that bridge in the 7% to 8%. So we feel really confident with that. I mean, everything we just spoke to on inventory management and reg price selling is really helping us continue to drive the margin.

Speaker 3

And that's really what you're going to continue to see is discipline through the organization. So I feel very good with the margin. We held that guide. It's within the 7% to 8% framework that we outlined a couple of years ago. From an SG and A perspective, you saw the numbers came in better for Q1.

Speaker 3

We did say they'd be down in that 1.5% range for the rest of the year. So we know we're going to pull back commensurate with the sales being down. It's something that we're really good at Kohl's. We have a great cost disciplined culture. Always looking for operational efficiencies across the organization.

Speaker 3

And so this is where we'll play into that game. We'll pull back on some of these expenses. We're still going to invest in growth initiatives. So as Tom mentioned, we're rolling out the impulse lines. We're going to do Babies R Us and we have the Sephora Shops.

Speaker 3

Those are important. And so we're going to make sure that we're putting the expenses where we're going to get that return back and those are key projects that are going to be drivers for sales as we move forward. The big piece of getting back to 7% to 8% right now is going to be growth and that is really a huge focus of what we're looking at. A lot of some time. Thanks again.

Speaker 3

Best of luck. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thanks again. Best of luck.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Great, thanks.

Speaker 5

Hey, Matt.

Speaker 7

Hey. So Tom, could you elaborate maybe on 1st quarter trends that you saw at stores versus digital? And help us to think about the sequential cadence across channels that you're expecting in the second quarter versus back half of the year? And then, Jill, I just wanted to circle back on trends that you cited in May relative to what you saw in March April with reg price selling.

Speaker 2

As far as the digital to stores business, we're closing the gap. As you know, stores way outperformed digital last year. And in the Q1, they were much closer together. Going forward and incorporated in our guidance is the fact that we see digital and stores performing at the same similar levels in terms of comp. All the heavy promotions that we did previously are behind us now.

Speaker 2

And now it's obviously normalizing and we should see digital and stores come together.

Speaker 3

And then in terms of the trends for May, I think we are really past the clearance component of that, Matt, in February into early March. So as we saw the softening in late March April, I think that's just really the regular price business, the core business. I mean, clearance is a small percentage once we through the beginning part of the quarter. And like I mentioned, we saw the softness progress into May, but we are seeing progressive improvement as the month has gone on, particularly in that spring seasonal. It's coming a little bit later, but it's coming.

Speaker 3

And then the momentum that we've called out Sephora, home decor, gifting, impulse, continuing to still be very productive. So as we're making some of those corrections that Tom mentioned, particularly like newness start setting in small electrics, leaning into some more value in that space as well around home. And then impulse lines, we'll have more of them. We have 100 and 40 Sephora shops that will be opening in Q2. And then you have Babies R Us that really is a Q3 endeavor as well.

Speaker 3

So a lot of newness and new initiatives coming in front of us as well that helps give us confidence in the flat to down Q for the rest of the year.

Speaker 7

Great. And then Jill, just with the operating margin setback for this year's guide, is there any change to longer term that the 7% to 8% or do you see today's change as more transitory?

Speaker 3

I would say there's not a change. We do believe we can get to 7% to 8%. I think a couple of things. Obviously, remember, we do have the CFPB legislation beginning in August in our number. We do think that we have offsets that we're working towards, that obviously is weighing in this year.

Speaker 3

When we have more clarity on that, we'll give an update. But at this point in time, I think there's still a lot of uncertainties that remains in the court system. That's a one step back. But I think we can get to 7% to 8%. Like I mentioned, we're already at over 37% for our gross margin.

Speaker 3

So that was above the bracket. As you can see in SG and A, the discipline is there. I mean, our numbers are down year on year. And I think if you look over the last several years, our SG and A really hasn't risen. We've held it despite the inflation among wages and some of these other projects that we're putting in.

Speaker 3

So we've gotten that discipline. It really comes to growth. And I think that's why the biggest focus here is how we continue to drive top line. And once we get that growth, the financial structure is sound and it's there it's ready. And as soon as that growth happens, you're going to see that expansion from an operating margin perspective.

Speaker 3

But it will be more long term as we step into the growth and we can take advantage of that.

Speaker 8

Great color. Best of luck.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chuck Grom from Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks very much. Good morning. Just wondering if you guys could talk about the health of your customer today across income cohorts? And then maybe if we could talk about trends across apparel and footwear in the quarter relative to the down 4. I don't know if you want to unpack it regular versus clearance or if there's a way to split it out just to assess the health of those two parts of your business.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 3

So I think we know the customers are definitely feeling pressure. You've heard that across the retail space. Particularly for us, it continues to be that middle income customer that's been the most impacted. I think that's been a pretty consistent theme for us. So that's where we really have into value for that customer and make sure we're delivering them value, whether that be through newness of value or really through our core customers who enjoy the coupon or going into deeper pricing events, but making sure that they know that they can come and get value because obviously their dollar has to be stretched further.

Speaker 3

Another positioning is private brands. It provides an opening price point for us. So I think that's definitely a place that we can lean into from that perspective. We've done a lot with our key high value pricing where we're able to take some better pricing on our opening price point brands like Jumping Beans and Tech Gear. And as Tom indicated, we're really getting credit from a customer for delivering value, as we go out and talk to them.

Speaker 3

And also in the quarter, our proprietary brands, our reg price business was flat. So we can see that it's really resonating with them as we move into that space and we're able to take those markdowns to happen. So that's where we're really going to focus on is making sure that we continue to deliver value to that customer because we know at this point in time their dollar has to be stretched a lot further and particularly in that middle income customer who's really core to Kohl's.

Speaker 2

As far as trends go, we're seeing I'm just going to put it all together between clearance and regular price. We're seeing great trends in expanding the assortments in apparel to have more and more polished casual and dress up product overall. The customers really looking for that. People are going back to work. People are obviously spending time on special occasions etcetera.

Speaker 2

So not only is the polished casual and dress good in apparel, we're also doing well in the footwear business as well. So that whole package is trending very well. The one area that's negatively impacting us from a trend perspective, as I mentioned, is our active business. We've done well with our own product Tech Gear and Flex, but the balance of it, we have a lot of work to do in order to turn that business around overall. We really think it's an important business.

Speaker 2

We don't think it should be in lieu of the polished casual and dress, but it's a big category and we're working on that a lot. Whenever we have some special things in our assortments, as I mentioned in home, that really helps us. And the gifting business is really trending well. We've made a big emphasis in our stores on the gifting side of it. Like our Mother's Day business was very good.

Speaker 2

We anticipate a good Father's Day business. Americana product is selling very well also. So the impulse thing, that's a big opportunity for us in the future. And again, it's up like 60% already. So that's pretty much the trends we're seeing.

Speaker 2

Obviously, the beauty trend is huge as well. So that sort of sums it up.

Speaker 8

Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you, Tom. Just one for Jill on the model. Just how should we think about the cadence and phasing of comps over the balance of the year? Should we think about it somewhere in the down 1% to 3% range by quarter?

Speaker 8

Or are you anticipating Q4 to be a little bit lower because of the 5 fewer days? And then on credit, you may have touched on this earlier, I hopped on a couple of minutes late. Are you still anticipating down mid teens dollar growth in 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 3

I'll start with the second one. We are there's no change from a credit perspective. It came right in line with our expectations in terms of the quarter. We'll expect that. We still include, as I mentioned, the CFPB legislation in that number and that's obviously why it's down mid teens for the year.

Speaker 3

So the back half is much more down due to the legislation assumption starting on August 1. And then I think in terms of cap cadence, we're not really giving it. I think we feel really good with the flat to down 2. The one thing that I would tell you is we do have new initiatives in front of us. And so as you think of Q2 to Q3 and then in holiday, we're opening up more Sephora shops in Q2.

Speaker 3

So that obviously would benefit partly Q2 and in the back half of the year. Babies R Us really opening in that Q3 period to help benefit in Q3 and then Q4. And then as we talked about with Impulse, we'll have 50 stores in Q2 opening and I think it's like another 200 in Q3 to bring it to the 350 for the year. So that 2 in front of us. And then gifting just in general, I think has been working.

Speaker 3

We've called it out in terms of Valentine's Day and Easter and Mother's Day. So we're really taking advantage of all those periods and I think we're getting better at it and having a much bigger presence in the stores and really resonating with customers to know we can be found for those type of holidays and those types of gifts. So particularly in the holiday period, I think you're going to see a much bigger set from that perspective and that should be a benefit as well. So really leaning into those key initiatives. And then I mean I just want to call it the fact that our women's business, our reg business was up 3%.

Speaker 3

And we haven't seen and talked about women's and juniors being positive in any sense in a long time. So really continuing to build off of that momentum as well. We have dress shops like Tom had mentioned in 700 stores. Those that in Q1, but we're expanding them as we move into Q2. So I just think there's going to be some build as these initiatives come throughout the year.

Speaker 3

But I guess I'm not going to give you what that cadence looks like. I'll let you kind of discern how you feel that should be.

Speaker 8

All right. Thanks, Jill. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Operator

Our last question today will come from Dana Telsey from Telsey Group. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning, everyone. Hi. Hi, Tom. Hi, Jill. Hi, Jill.

Speaker 9

And hi, Mark. A while ago, you had talked about enhancements being made in stores, whether it's the queuing lines, anything you're seeing in stores with these strategic initiatives that is that you expect to help as we go through the balance of the year? And can you talk about the difference in performance of the digital channel versus the stores channel and what you're seeing? And I think you were thinking about either some remodels or downsizes or new stores. How should we be thinking of that in light of the current environment?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 2

To answer the first the last question first. We're doing our regular maintenance on our stores this year, but we're not going to have any major remodels or any resets in stores right now, focusing on the business in totality right now. So that's really key. The digital versus store business, we're really looking at them being comparable in terms of trends. There was a much shorter there's a much smaller spread between digital and stores in the Q1.

Speaker 2

But it's we think going forward, they're going to perform at a similar level as I mentioned earlier in the call.

Speaker 3

Yes. And then I would say we've talked a lot about in store handsets like you talked about, but there are things in digital that we're working on as well, which is why we think they'll really run more in parity. We're doing a lot of scaling initiatives around targeting initiatives in terms of when you go on the store or on the site, if we're out of stock on something, how can we give you your best choice? A lot of this we're using AI to help us power do that. We're doing more personalized and relevant content recommendations based on consumer behavior.

Speaker 3

So really trying to work on that side of it from a conversion perspective. And then we're improving our search and product recommendations. We're moving to a new platform there as well. So I think the enhancements we're bringing in store are also complemented with a lot of enhancements we're doing on the digital side, and that's why we think they can run more at parity. And then just to complete out your question, you asked about new stores.

Speaker 3

I think we have 5 new stores this year that are opening 1 relo. What I would say is you're not going to see a lot in the new store space from us in this year or the upcoming years. I think really right now we want to get that formula right in our stores. We're making a lot of changes and a lot of enhancements. I do think you're going to see that smaller store as we move forward.

Speaker 3

But we have a lot of work to do there, I think, within the 1200 stores we own today. So you won't see a lot of newness there until we get that formula right. And then we do think there is opportunity. It will just be more in a long term perspective.

Speaker 2

To answer your first question now, in store improvements, as I mentioned earlier, the Impulse business is really growing. It's up 60%. We opened 100 queuing lines in the Q1, doing 50 in the 2nd quarter and 200 in the third quarter and it's doing very well. And over the next couple of years, we plan to roll it out to all of our stores where it makes sense in general. We've really built the gifting centers.

Speaker 2

Are much more robust than they have been before. We're taking the junior business and we're moving it from within the women's business to the front of the store where it used to be. So that when the customer comes out of the Sephora shop, they walk right into juniors and we're working really hard on making sure that we have more trend product in the juniors area, maximizing our efforts with the market brands overall.

Speaker 8

So

Speaker 2

the stores, I think, are coming together very nicely and we feel good about what's going to happen

Speaker 3

in the future. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I think that's it. Thank you to everyone for listening on the call today. Have a good day. Bye.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Kohl's Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00