Triple Flag Precious Metals Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 8, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello and thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Triple Flag Precious Metals Q1 2024 Conference Call. All lines have been placed in mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Osner, Street Executive Officer.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jericho. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's Q1 of 2024 results. Today, I'm pleased to be joined by our CFO, Sheldon Van de Kooij and for the first time, our Director of Mining, James Leal, who will join us for the Q and A portion of the call. James is a mining engineer and is responsible for portfolio management and supports technical diligence at Triple Flag. As a background, James has over 20 years of experience across mine sites, head offices and consulting, most recently as Head of Canada at Mining Plus.

Speaker 1

Triple Flag achieved a new quarterly GEO sales record to start the year with sales of roughly 28,000 gold equivalent ounces, resulting in US48 $1,000,000 of EBITDA during the quarter. The strong performance has positioned us well to achieve our 2024 GEO sales guidance of 100 and and 5000 to 115,000 ounces. Most notably, in line with our guidance 4 due to higher gold grades from the E-thirty one open pits at North Park, our flagship asset delivered a nearly 90% increase in GEO sales quarter on quarter. We continue to expect these pits to deliver high grade through at least 2024 and 2025 I look forward to a feasibility study for the E22 underground ore body, which our partner Evolution expects to complete by the end of Q2 of this year. E-twenty two is expected to represent another source of high grade gold ore at North Parks in the medium to long term.

Speaker 1

In March of 2024, we surfaced further value from the Mavericks portfolio with a settlement agreement reached with Quir Mining on the Kensington NSR royalty, which has commenced paying and will be discussed later in the presentation. Finally, I'd be remiss not to mention the current favorable precious metals price environment, which on the back of sustained central bank buying, Chinese retail purchases and seemingly never ending geopolitical uncertainty has remained at near record levels for gold prices and solid silver prices. It's been a great time to have continued meaningful GEO growth in our portfolio coincide with a period of strong price support. We expect to deliver our 8th consecutive year of record GEO sales in 2024 and with the Q1 of high grade growth from North Parks now achieved, we look forward to the prospect of continued high gold and silver prices on our portfolio's cash flow per share. I'll now turn it over to Sheldon to discuss our financials for the Q1 of the year.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Sean. As noted, we had a strong Q1 with the portfolio producing just under 28,000 GEOs, which puts Triple Flag right on track to achieve our 2024 guidance. As expected, North Park and Cerro Lindo were the 2 largest contributors to Q1 production with North Park showing year over year growth due to the higher gold grades realized. In Q1, we also recorded our first revenues from the Kensington royalty, which we acquired as part of the Mavericks portfolio. The strong Q1 production and the record quarterly gold price resulted in record levels of revenue EBITDA significantly higher than the prior year period.

Speaker 2

Operating cash flow per share is the metric that I am most focused on. Our operating cash flow before working capital and taxes increased over 22% as compared to the prior year period. But as a short term timing matter, our working capital increased by $6,500,000 in Q1, resulting in bottom line operating cash flow in the quarter that was unchanged from the prior year. Typically, our adjusted EBITDA and our operating cash flow track quite closely, and I expect that this will continue to be the case for 2024 as a whole as the shorter term working capital changes reverse. For 2024, we are well positioned to drive increases in operating cash flow per share as we are realizing higher production levels from our existing portfolio and the higher gold price is translating into increased cash flows.

Speaker 2

In Q1, the gold price averaged $2,070 per ounce, a quarterly record. But in Q2 to date, the gold prices averaged over $2,300 an ounce, a significant increase over Q1. We view a growing dividend as a core part of our capital allocation strategy. In this quarter, our dividend has been maintained at $0.21 on an annualized basis. I'm proud that we have increased our dividend every year since our IPO.

Speaker 2

We will continue to assess potential for further increases going forward. In addition to our dividend, we also returned over $3,500,000 to shareholders via share buybacks in Q1. Last, I'd like to comment on our balance sheet. We exited the quarter with net debt of just $30,000,000 or less than 1 quarter of cash flow. A clean balance sheet, robust cash flows and our revolving credit facility of over $500,000,000 gives us the financial capacity to deploy capital to drive further growth for the benefit of shareholders.

Speaker 2

Going to the next slide. We continue to highlight 3 key aspects of our investment thesis, namely asset diversification, precious metals focus and a portfolio which is predominantly centered in Australia and the Americas. Our asset diversification is well understood. So continuing on Sean's earlier comment about a strong precious metals environment, I would like to highlight Triple Flag's 98% exposure to precious metals in Q1 2024. This pure play exposure ranks among the highest in the sector with a meaningful portion weighted to silver at 34%.

Speaker 2

I feel fortunate to have this level of exposure given the many favorable tailwinds for both gold and silver in the near to medium term. Finally, our portfolio is predominantly located in mining friendly jurisdictions, a key criteria as we look to expand our portfolio through acquisition. By geography, the country with the single greatest contribution remains Australia. Notably during the quarter, another one of our Australian assets was featured as a core part of an M and A transaction with Westgold announcing a friendly takeover of Karora to operate the Beta Hunt mine. We are pleased to have the cash flow and exploration potential for Beta Hunt spotlighted by Westgold.

Speaker 2

With you, Sean.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Sheldon. The core part of the 2024 story for Triple Flag is our anchor asset at North Parks. To give the market better context of the impact of this expected grade improvement versus historical results, this slide highlights middle head grades at North Parks over the past 3 full years of our stream ownership from 2021 to 2023, which has ranged from 0.13 grams a ton to 0.17 grams a ton. Therefore, the Q1 2024 process grade of 0.28 grams a ton is undoubtedly a significant step up from the past and Evolution Mining has done a great job in delivering what was promised. On the next slide, an asset that has been a clear winner for Triple Flag from prior years' Mavericks transaction is the Kensington NSR.

Speaker 1

Kensington is operated by Gohr Mining, which commenced production in 2010 with over 1,000,000 ounces produced to date and is expected to have a minimum 5 year reserve life by the end of 2024. The mine is located in Alaska, a jurisdiction that is no stranger to mining. With the settlement agreement now executed, this NSR commenced paying in Q1 with further share consideration from Kure in settlements of royalties and arrears. As part of the settlement agreement, we received roughly 737,000 shares of Quir, which we divested earlier in the Q2 of 2024 in the open market. We expect to receive a further fixed value of US3.75 million dollars worth of shares of Quora in the Q1 of 2025, which will be the final share consideration received under the agreement.

Speaker 1

We look forward to working with Kura's operating partners for the years to come on Kensington. So to end, we have had a strong start to 2024 with a new record quarter of GEOs and earnings that puts us nicely on track to achieving our guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 GEOs for the year. This represents our 8th consecutive projected year of record growth for our business and builds on the 34% cumulative annual growth rate and operating cash flow this team has delivered over the past 7 years. We highlighted at the end of the last year a period of substantial growth from our cornerstone asset in Australia, North Parks for the next couple of years. So to be able to demonstrate a nearly 90% increase in GEOs for the Q1 from this asset while delivering another robust performance from Cerro Lindo as a top 5 asset in our portfolio is something we're very pleased with.

Speaker 1

We managed a large portfolio of 234 assets. The core assets as anchors to our portfolio and guidance are clearly delivering for our investors and we've seen the power of a large portfolio being demonstrated with the Kensington this past quarter. The 2 underperforming assets we've highlighted in our release today have been well communicated in the past, have been factored into our 2024 guidance and we provided additional disclosure to make it clear that we're commercially well placed if they continue to underperform to maximize value for our investors. So finally, with our ample firepower of roughly US670 $1,000,000 in available liquidity as well as a cornerstone base of 32 producing assets. We're nicely diversified and well positioned to benefit from the current metal price environment as we continue our relentless pursuit of growth and value per share for our owners.

Speaker 1

With the Board and management team being large shareholders ourselves, we're completely aligned in ensuring the best outcomes and are excited about the significant opportunity ahead for our portfolio to deliver further value. So with that, Jericho, please happy to open the floor to questions.

Operator

First question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, thanks Sean, Sheldon and team. Maybe my first question is on North Park, your anchor asset. As you mentioned, there's going to be a feasibility study to be released by the end of Q2 on the E22 underground ore body. Could you maybe share with us what yours or our expectations could be? And what might be the next steps for the operator and potential timeline as well, Sean?

Speaker 1

Yes, Khoz, hi. It's good to hear from you. Khoz, I'm going to really defer this question until evolution release their study in the middle of the year. The reason is we've got a great new partnership. It's not really appropriate for me to front run it.

Speaker 1

I think all I can say in terms of expectations, I think we covered this on the last call we had a while ago. As you know, you've got a group here with a really impeccable track record in that jurisdiction with Cowal. And my expectation is they've been very successful in taking their time investing in exploration prudently. There's over 1,000 square kilometer package here, ore bodies open at depth. And they've been very good that I think studying astutely.

Speaker 1

And I think we touched on previously that even though there's an existing study that would have inherited on E22 with yet another block cave, they were looking at a sublevel cave as an alternative. I have no knowledge at this stage, which I can share, but I think that would give them perhaps earlier access and would benefit us if indeed they went that route. So, we're looking forward to seeing that release. And I think if you look at the public disclosures, as you'd expect with Jack and Laurie, their real focus is on just integrating the business well, which I believe they've done very successfully, getting these studies done and then just settling into delivering. For us, what I look for is always risk on a transition as someone who's been a lot of mining companies over the years and it's stabilization through integration.

Speaker 1

You can see from these results, they haven't missed a beat. I think they've done very well. James, I don't know if there's anything you wish to add, but No, I think you captured that well, Sean. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks, Sean.

Speaker 1

So, anything else?

Speaker 3

Yes, for sure. If I maybe switching gears a little bit. Sean, as you mentioned, it's good to see strength in the gold and silver prices year to date. My question is, how does that kind of impact the opportunity set in terms of acquisitions, new stream and royalty acquisition. As Sheldon mentioned, you have a strong balance sheet, dollars 640,000,000 undrawn on your line of credit.

Speaker 3

Is that kind of like is that sufficient? What type of size? Is that does that speak to the size of these opportunities that you might be looking at?

Speaker 1

Yes, because it's an important and sort of evergreen question. I know some investors look at a high gold price environment and they kind of get confused by it because they say that must mean that there's a fire hose of capital available to gold miners. And clearly, there's not a lot of business therefore for streaming and royalty companies to do. And that's really not the reality. I think if you consider that nearly 70% of our ounces come from polymetallics, that's not by accident.

Speaker 1

I think those sorts of transactions are very symbiotic as we've discussed before. We are seeing a lot of activity of that nature. We had a board meeting yesterday and I think we've highlighted there that I think it's fair to say it's probably the busiest deal pipeline we've seen in our 8 year existence. And a number of those, we've got some smaller transactions that are nice tuck ins at decent rates of return that where we were exclusive on and that doesn't mean we'll conclude them, but I think we've got a good line of sight on those. And then there are larger ones out there, which really are substantial in size, many, many 100 of millions.

Speaker 1

You can hear from Sheldon's comments that we have ample firepower, but I think part of our consideration is not only the fit for the portfolio as shareholders, but very much what does the portfolio mix look like. So, I think the bulk of what we're looking at, we can easily cover with our existing financing. There are some way we would perhaps look to syndicate just purely from a portfolio mix if indeed it went that route. But my feeling at this stage is that just given this macro environment, we're seeing really good deal flow activity and I don't believe it's an anomaly. I suspect in this environment with rates seemingly being the way they are for some time to come, I think it's a particularly good outlook for deal flow for us.

Speaker 1

Sean, is there anything you'd wish to add to that?

Speaker 2

No, I think that covers it very well, Sean.

Speaker 3

And then Sean, maybe one last question. Going through your income statement, I saw that there was an expected credit loss of $6,851,000 as a charge. You kind of touched on it. There's some operators that have had some financial issues. I'm just trying to look for more details on it.

Speaker 3

And what are they related to?

Speaker 1

Yes, because I'm not sure to comment, but I want to preface this a little by saying, I think an organization that is only looking at your things is not we've got to balance risk and reward. And the whole focus here for us is staying true to the model, which I think we've demonstrated over years and managing a portfolio. The numbers you're mentioning in particular are one of over 140 assets we acquired during the Mavericks transaction that we knew was problematic at the time. We're very happy with that transaction. We've announced Kensington.

Speaker 1

I think we delivered our synergies and it's gone quite well. But this is one of the examples we've been working with the management team to try and support them while really focusing on value. You will see, I think, with our track record as well, we've not dallianceed with the idea of providing a lot of additional equity and other kind of financing. We really have stayed true to our model. But occasionally, as part of the model of the portfolio management, we do have impacts like that.

Speaker 1

And we're very clear. I mean, you would have seen in the last period with I think we took a charge at the end of the Renard experience. And at that one, we just, for example, done right back. We tend to try and narrow on the side of conservatism. But Sean, do you want to pick it up?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Thanks, Sean, and thanks, Kaes. Kaj. That relates, as Sean alluded to, to an expected credit loss that we recorded for reflecting our investment in the Moss mine and it's run by Elevation Gold. Basically Elevation has been quite public that they experienced some cash flow difficulties and that they're actually looking at different alternatives.

Speaker 2

At the end of the day, this is a it's a producing gold mine in the United States, a fantastic gold price environment. But they've been a little tight on cash flow as they ramped up the new pad. We just want to be conservative. We wanted to take this allowance. We'll see how their process plays out.

Speaker 2

I can't really speak too much for that, but we continue to monitor it quite closely. And I will add that we're in 1st secured position on everything there. So we just wanted to be conservative and take this expected credit loss and see how this matter plays out.

Speaker 1

And Coz, I think the last thing just for materialities and context with some of the audience on the call, we're talking about 1 of our 234 assets that is the NAV, I believe consensus NAV is in the teens. So given a $3,000,000,000 on U. S. Dollars market cap right now that hopefully is useful context.

Speaker 3

And to confirm Sean and Sheldon, so I guess the stream and also the royalty and the promissory notes, they're all secured on the assets of Moss or Elevation Gold. They're just so you do have a right to recover your investment, but you are just trying to be conservative?

Speaker 2

Yes, that's right, Caius. We're first secured on that. The stream I the stream is again, it's a silver stream on a gold silver project in the United States. But when we look at the total burden on the property, we think that the credit loss is just a prudent way to go. And that's so we've taken that and we try to be quite upfront about that.

Speaker 3

Yes. And I understand your point, Sean, about materiality. So for sure. Those are my questions and thanks once again.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Chris. Thank you. Great questions.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Barnes TD Securities. Please go ahead. Yes.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Sean, can you

Speaker 4

talk a little bit about what the grade profile does look like at North Parkes for the rest of 2024? And you said higher grade in 2025 and 2026. Just give us some idea of what we should be looking at there.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Good morning, Greg. I'm going to ask James just to comment with him what's disclosed to extent, I guess.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you very much. Yes, as discussed, the E31 south and north, they continue to ramp up. Should see that continue into Q2 and level off for us 3 and 4. And then the business itself will start to continue into 2025 and then start to ramp down going into the Q4 of 2025.

Speaker 5

And then after that, then it's E22, which is where we expect study to be released, and then that will be the next higher grade zone once that's constructed.

Speaker 1

And Greg, you may recall, we've shared some of the grades like E22 from memory with something like 0 0.39 grams a tonne. So that really was the you could sort of think of that when that becomes the mainstay of the mine plan is really being at the sort of levels we expect to see this year continuing for many years beyond. I think this year for some may have been a show me for North Park. So I think hopefully this quarter is a helpful indicator of what we've been talking about for gold generation from the asset.

Speaker 4

Okay. I just James, you broke up a little bit. I couldn't really hear what's happening in Q2 and Q3. I think that was this year.

Speaker 5

Also, GEO sorry, for Q2, we're expecting GEOs to increase again as well as into Q3 and then leveling off, I think going into 2025 before ramping down kind of later in that year, the pits and the higher grade material.

Speaker 1

Did you get that, Greg?

Speaker 4

So higher GEOs in Q2 and Q3, then flatlining at that level in Q4, I think for 2024 and then 2025.

Speaker 1

Sort of continuing on. And yes, I think the only thing on that is, as you'd appreciate it, we get like, I don't know, was it 13 deliveries roughly, they're fairly lumpy during the year. So there are shoulder phenomena that we do get with this. We try to factor that into our guidance. So you need to see through that as you think about the year versus the quarter.

Speaker 4

Got you. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Greg. Is there anything else? No, that's it for me. Okay.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line with Dogegen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hello, is that me?

Speaker 1

Tanya, I think it was. Yes, good morning.

Speaker 6

Okay. All right, good morning. I just didn't know who that was. So, thank you for taking my questions and congrats on a good quarter. I'm just going to follow-up on Greg's question.

Speaker 6

Is North Park the only asset within your portfolio that is looking to have this stronger performance and everything else is relatively equal? I'm just trying to see if there's any other assets that I should think about as a stronger second half.

Speaker 1

No. Sonia, I think that's a good way to look at it. I think it's something we've made no bones about is, we don't just take the aggregation of the public guidance of the operating assets in our portfolio and sort of put those out there. Our guidance is sort of handicapped accordingly. I think we telegraphed quite well in advance last year that we were expecting this sort of growth to come from E31 and from North Parks this year.

Speaker 1

So it's a meaningful catalyst from a very well established multi decade long mine, which I think should be well celebrated and recognized. And then the growth is not coming from Hail Mary stuff we're waiting to come in later. And just to beat the dead horse on this, but I think that is the beauty of the portfolio effect on this, again, is little things like Kensington. We have over 200 of these things that at some different time horizons that are not captured in our guidance. We do expect some subsidies to also represent good growth for our investors.

Speaker 1

But I think the way you and Greg are thinking about it is exactly right.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. And then, Sheldon, can you remind me just the book value of Moss and Pumpkin Hollow, the two ones that are with not so strong operators?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Tanya, Moss, the stream has a book value of just under it's around $18,000,000 $19,000,000 Pumpkin Hollow, the stream has a book value of $85,000,000

Speaker 6

Okay. And then how should I think of just this cash flow that you're generating? How should I think about your balance between paying off your debt, your share buyback and potentially growing your dividends? Maybe that's over to you, Sean, for that one.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Steve. I'll give Sheldon that mic. He's marinates in it pretty much every day.

Speaker 6

All right. Sheldon, over to you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Yes. So, Tanya, I maybe start with like the first, I think, and best use of our cash flow is accretive transactions for shareholders. And as you know, we're always looking at things and hoping to deploy. And right now, we're well positioned for that.

Speaker 2

The dividend, we've increased that every year since we've been public. I would expect that to continue. We're probably at a similar pace, but we'll wait for further in the year for any sort of update on that. As you get cash flow and you have net debt, it's really simple. You just pay down your net debt, but we're quite comfortable drawing on our revolver to make acquisitions and to add value to shareholders that way.

Speaker 2

We don't like share dilution. So we'd look to use the revolver strategically and then pay down over time. Continued to use that to view that like opportunistically. Again, it's returning capital to shareholder and our feedback from shareholders has been positive on that front.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then maybe Sean to you just on Cosmos' question on the M and A environment, transaction environment. So did I understand correctly the larger transaction, the $500,000,000 plus that are spoken about out there and there's like a couple, I heard 3, 4, maybe even 5 in that sort of range. Are you looking at those in terms of your ability to do them only syndicated? Or would you also look at doing those on your own?

Speaker 1

No. So it's a great question. I think firstly, I was looking at some of the transcripts of Franco's calls. They've telegraphed it, and I think you may have covered the question of the time. And I think what we're seeing is very similar to I think what was articulated there.

Speaker 1

So there's no shortage there's always development stuff. You've got to be very discerning how much of that exposure you want. But I think for the first time perhaps since our existence, we are seeing these sort of $500,000,000 plus or thereabouts type transactions reemerging that I think we last saw in sort of 2014, 2015. Think the one thing that's different, which we've sort of highlighted with our Board, if you take yourself back to that time and you remember we did one of these at Barrick when I was their CFO, rates were close to 0 and commodity prices or these gold prices were at nearly cyclical lows for quite some time. We are not in that same space.

Speaker 1

So we're spending a lot of time thinking through the risk reward and portfolio fit. I'd say with a couple that we are active on, we are comfortable that the check size is one that we would easily finance. And these are cash generating assets. So it actually adds to our funding capacity and we wouldn't be over levered. The other one is one where it's not clear whether or not it's just a thing on cost of capital and fit or indeed they would want to go for size.

Speaker 1

I believe we're more than covered and if not, we may be a syndicate member. What we won't do is pursue growth for growth sake. None of these are must dos for us at all. I mean, you can see our growth that we have in the existing portfolio. This is purely a question of does it fit with our strategy and will it add value over time.

Speaker 6

Okay. So from that, should I be thinking that sort of these larger ones would be ones that likely could be syndicated and you would participate in that, but the majority of what you're looking at would be sub $500,000,000 Would that be a fair way of thinking about it?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think that's a reasonable way of looking at it. It's hard on we were talking in generalities. The specifics are so different in each of these cases, each with the sort of real benefits and complexities as you'd expect. So it's really hard for me to comment any further, but I think we are at the size we're at and with what we have and I think what we've demonstrated.

Speaker 1

Remember, we did North Parks at $550,000,000 a few years ago. At that time, that was the largest just pure pressure streaming deal in the space, I think still to this day. We're starting to see these larger things come out. So if the North Parks emerge tomorrow, we'd I think we'd easily cover that off. But yes, so hopefully that gives you a flavor, Tanya.

Speaker 6

All right. I gathered plus 500 you could do on your own as well.

Speaker 1

Yes. Yes. That's right.

Operator

Yes. Yes,

Speaker 6

okay. No, I think that's it from my side.

Speaker 1

Yes, sorry, maybe just a nuance on this. If this was that sort of check size and you're funding something which had a ramp associated and cash flow many years out, that's a very different prospect to an operating asset with maybe some substantial immediate cash flow that take us all. That's a lot

Speaker 6

of that.

Speaker 1

There's a bunch of that, yes,

Speaker 7

that Yes.

Speaker 1

Yes. It's a pretty interesting environment.

Speaker 6

Yes. And I would assume that the smaller ones would be further out, non producing development type. No,

Speaker 1

no, actually, no, that's not the case. I hope to give you some news in the months ahead. But we're seeing this environment is not super supportive of single asset producers, private businesses and others. I think that even though we've perhaps seen a bit of a reduction in some of the inflation and margin compression that the sector has experienced, I think there's a lot of guys out there who are looking at their equity and saying like what happened, gold has had a run and we've been left behind. So, I think we are seeing some really decent rate of return, good optionality, smaller opportunities that are just great tuck ins.

Speaker 1

And yes, we're active on some of those too.

Speaker 6

Okay. Good. Look forward to seeing more. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Kevin.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder with BOA Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you, operator, and good morning, Sean and team. Thanks for taking the question and for the presentation today. I'd like to ask about Pumpkin Hollow and two points on that. I mean, one, obviously, I mean, I think they require some more financing and wanted to understand whether or not Triple Flag would consider applying additional capital to that situation. And I think in the context of you guys still believing in the asset longer term, correct me if I'm wrong, and then longer term, I mean, when should we kind of think about putting some production from that asset into our model, particularly visavis your long term guidance?

Speaker 1

Yes. Wilson, it's yes, as you know, this has been an asset that has been in our growth outlook for some time. It's one of our 5 larger projects that we were funding into production. I'd say it's been quite notable and it's sort of struggles with inflation and liquidity from time to time. So to your point, we lost a port of this in a couple of years ago, really with the royalty and some funding that was secured in line with our model.

Speaker 1

I don't see a scenario here where we look to continue to add to the burden, if you will, of the asset and to continue to fund us through. We will focus on if we do any capital, it will be small in this scenario where they don't secure the funding they need and really it's just really to optimize value from our perspective. I think there's nearly $1,000,000,000 of some capital on a copper asset and a permitted situation with a fully developed underground mine and a shovel ready open pit. Think it's an intrinsically valuable situation. So I can't tell you sitting here today whether the party or parties that they're engaged with, which would provide that remaining capital and continue to grow the asset will come to fruition.

Speaker 1

I guess what we really wanted to communicate was update you on that and just make it clear that we what our situation, our ranking would be depending which fork in the road this was to go down. But you shouldn't expect us to be like a big equity check to get this into production or something. Sheldon, I don't know if there's anything you'd add.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Sean. Thanks, Lawson. Yes, like so Nevada Copper, like they've disclosed that they're in discussions with another party and that they need more capital. So I think everyone knows that.

Speaker 2

We certainly do believe in the asset, copper United States, all the sum capital, all those reasons. But that said, we're not operators. We have no desire to be operators. So we're not going to be the source of the funding to bring this into production. And we just we probably we've invested our piece and as Sean said, we don't want to add to the burden there.

Speaker 2

Hopefully that gives you the direction.

Speaker 1

Yes. And Austin, I think the last thing and I look forward to hearing more at your conference next week, but I think it's probably the best copper backdrop I can remember in some time. So you would think if they could solve the liquidity situations and you got a levered asset in this backdrop in the United States, that should be good, right?

Operator

Yes,

Speaker 8

makes sense to me and I appreciate the clarity. It's very helpful. Could I also just add on your thinking around corporate M and A? Obviously, your last experience, I mean, at least in my view, I think was very successful.

Operator

Are you still looking

Speaker 8

at that as an avenue for growth going forward? And do you see opportunity in the current environment?

Speaker 1

Yes. Look, I think to your point, it's I spent the large part of my career in companies like Extrata that really grew substantially through M and A. I worked on the BSG Billiton merger and for example, and the power of people not falling in love with their assets because I think everybody likes to they know more about their businesses than others. They always think that their churn is smarter and better looking than everyone else's. But if you just focus on value, I think at any given time, you have a very good line of sight and you should be focusing as we all do on the organic pipeline, your ability to transact.

Speaker 1

But if you go back to your point to Mavericks, we just come through an environment of a couple of years where we'd normally do a few $100,000,000 a year and we saw billions get deployed in mostly development stage assets with very low returns versus an M and A transaction that was accretive, made sensible by sets of shareholders, struck at a low premium that really delivered synergies and made value. I don't know why that isn't an obvious thing more for the sector. So, directly to your question, yes, we're always looking at the universe of the possible. There's only so many toys to play with. And just to reiterate the obvious, that I'm very happy as a shareholder whether that means we're an acquirer or an acquiree.

Speaker 1

But I think usually the social barriers are the largest to consolidation in the sector. I do think that the investor scale requirements these days for it to be relevant are higher, like notably higher than when we started our company in 2016. So I think that's a factor that should be a feature in every boardroom and every management team. And I think when we look at the sort of menu of possibilities, very small things we tend to struggle with. Like Mavericks, if you recall, had a lot of assets, but more than half the NAV that we acquired came from 14 assets over and there was over 100 as you recall, which were generating cash.

Speaker 1

A lot of the really small stuff, there's a lot of NAV, which is quite long dated, and we often struggle to see our path to value there, even though on a PNAV basis, they might seem well discounted. And then, yes, whether it's intermediates or seniors, if there's sensible things to do, we're always open to them. But yes, there's barriers there. So probably more than you wanted to hear, but hopefully that gives you a sense. We're always open for business if there's business to be

Speaker 8

There's never too little. Let's put it that way. Thank you very

Operator

much for the color, Sean.

Speaker 1

No worries. Thanks, listen. See you next week.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. We've heard a number of people talk about these big deals potentially out there of $500,000,000 plus and refer back to the last cycle where it's all for debt restructuring. Can I just when people talk numbers of $500,000 can I assume those are true streaming deals, meaning they're not like, say, $300,000,000 of streaming and you're putting $300,000,000 of equity in or something? Because as you've mentioned, these deals are getting more hybrid, more complicated in the sector. I'm just trying to figure out to make sure that these are what I would call true streaming lower risk deals as opposed to complicated financing transactions?

Speaker 1

Yes, Brian, good to hear from you. It's a really good question. It's funny, I'd say a year or so ago, I started getting questions from investors at conferences and elsewhere about is Triple Flag going to start doing more hybrid deals because we've seen some larger guys do it and we've seen the private guys like Orion do that very successfully. I believe it concentrates risk and it violates the model. So, I was very clear that we are not going to engage in doing that and we haven't.

Speaker 1

So, don't expect anything along those lines from us. And directly to your question, no, these are streaming deals. It isn't, hey, boy, we've got a deal for you. Here's $500,000,000 but as you say, dollars 300,000,000 of that is a stream and you're going to lob in a $200,000,000 equity check. So, no, they're streaming deals.

Speaker 1

And I think that in many cases, it is stuff that just represents at a moment in time perhaps a better alternative on cost of funding, either balance sheet repair, improving liquidity or things of that nature is just how to think about it.

Speaker 9

Thank you. That's very clear. Also what I wanted to hear. Second question, just a different vein a little bit. Can you just go through the rationale at ATO and STEPI?

Speaker 9

I mean, again, we do another prepaid, which is another type of financing. Again, is that just the ramping up? Is it the seasonal working capital you're doing this for? Or I assume this is nothing like Elevation or anything else to be clear for everybody, but if you could just give a little bit of rationale for that.

Speaker 1

Yes. I'll ask Sheldon to expand on this, but I think the important thing is from time to time, we have assisted where the capital markets for these guys are brutal. And we've done this once or twice with STEP where we met a good return on our money. It was very helpful financing for them. Yes, and that's a partnership as you call goes back, I think it was our 2nd transaction.

Speaker 1

So these guys, we've helped them IPO, we've helped them deliver successfully. They've got this transaction now, they need some bridge funding, we're happy to assist. It's a decent return. And it's a team that I think is demonstrating some ambition and growth and a very strong Mongolian champion. But, Sheldon, what would you add to that?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Sean. Thanks, Brian. Yes. So STEP, it's actually a pretty impressive story if you see what they've accomplished over the years.

Speaker 2

They're relatively small company and they were managed to find financing, a same amount of financing for Phase 2. We benefit from that, which is fantastic. It was a bit of a it was a heavy lift for them. Q1 is often a harder quarter for them just due to the Mongolian winter. And this particular winter in Mongolia was particularly hard.

Speaker 2

And they basically asked us for some funding to help them out there. We are happy to give that because we could see the value there. And actually, since that since we did that prepay with STEP, the Buru transaction got announced and that's actually a real game changer for them. It's going to really give them some really good robust cash flows that marry up quite well with the development project they have with the Phase 2 expansion. The rates of return were obviously attractive for us.

Speaker 2

We quite frankly got a little lucky on the gold price timing and that's just the way it worked out.

Speaker 9

And sorry, that was going to be my second question, but this was kind of independent of the Baru transaction, right? It was just a seasonal thing you're helping them get through or I mean in a sense, I don't think of it as funding that transaction or anything.

Speaker 2

No. It's not funding that transaction, it's independent.

Speaker 7

Yes. Okay,

Speaker 1

that's good. And maybe

Speaker 9

my third question under the category of hidden assets, or I don't know if it's hidden or not, but you obviously highlighted some good value in Kensington, which had been worked on for a year. Is there any possibility of getting any value out of Almirall? Is anything happening there anymore? Or is that just totally very difficult?

Speaker 1

Look, it's a great question. I mean, we've got a contractual entitlement. But as you know, we've written that down. We did that on the announcement of the transaction. We made it clear that we are not guiding investors to expect anything.

Speaker 1

But we do have a contractual entitlement that perhaps in the future is could have some value. I just wouldn't want to raise any expectations to that effect. I think it's just one of those bags of things that perhaps in the future could unlock some value for shareholders. Fair enough. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Just when we bought Mavericks, we ascribed 0 value to Omolon. So there was no write down associated with that. We just ascribed 0 value to it and we did that transaction after the Ukrainian war had started. So we kind of had some good visibility there. And like Sean said, I mean, we have a contractual entitlement.

Speaker 2

It's a great ore body. We like the mine. But obviously, the Russia factor means we're putting 0 value on it right now. And I wouldn't encourage anyone to put any value on it right now. History is long and times may change, but I wouldn't put anything on it right now.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for answering all my questions.

Speaker 1

No. Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Tumazos. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Some of your assets are smaller companies where I apologize, I might not be current. What percentage complete is Pumpkin Hollow? Or how much money do they need to complete the project?

Speaker 1

Hey, John. I'll ask Sheldon to comment on that one for us. Yes, Sean, what would you like to say?

Speaker 2

Yes, John, it's pretty difficult for us to give that figure because that's obviously Nevada Copper's Ballywick. I don't think they put that number out in the public domain and we just don't have the freedom and maneuver to give that figure.

Speaker 7

Concerning some of your non producing properties that are making progress, How many years out or what year or range of years do you think might be first revenue in Hope Bay, South Railroad, Tamarac or Fendyb?

Speaker 1

Yes. John, I know I think it was in our prior corporate updates that we had at the conferences. We try to provide some sense of a 5 10 year window for those sort of smaller royalties that we touch on. You would see that the 140,000 GEO, bearing in mind last year was 105, guiding 105,000,000 to 150,000,000 this year and then that 140,000,000 average in the 5 year, really is focused on mostly the producing assets with very limited contribution from any of these smaller things. So, you've got that bucket of nearly 200.

Speaker 1

I think, to your point, we've got some opportunity I think in the periods ahead to look a little bit more at the advance and be able to draw some attention from an investor point of view at those subsets. I think things like Kensington as an example, where none of these are massive in their own rights. But as a collective, these are things that I think can actually add over time to some meaningful GEOs and outperformance. And then to your point, Hope Bey, it's been interesting. I was on a as an investor conference in Zurich recently, Amar was talking about the significant progress they're making there.

Speaker 1

I know they're talking about perhaps 3000, 400,000 ounces a year and they're getting some good exploration results there. So our hope is certainly before the end of this decade, they're the right operator in that location. They're clearly investing significant money and time, and we've got a pretty meaningful royalty on there. So I think in that sort of time frame, we'd hope to see good contributions starting to come from that. And so anything you'd add, Dror?

Speaker 2

No, I think that covers it really well, John.

Speaker 1

Yes. And John, I think to your point, it's a good match for us to also focus beyond because we've always tried to focus on growth, risk and optionality. And I think as we've done a bit to highlight some of that optionality, I know there's a lot of guys dying out from that, but I think we need to do more to probably showcase more of that opportunity for investors.

Speaker 7

Concerning Agbaou, Kone and N. C. In Africa, Do those operators have a target date for production? And are they in your longer term 5 year forecast?

Speaker 1

Yes, they do. And we have included you wouldn't think of them as being massive geo contributors, but we've gone on their public guidance as we've thought about. And again, I'll draw your attention to it's on our website. We've got a short summary of a couple of those royalties and that's both in the 5 year and then the sort of 10 year timeframe.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Thanks, John.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Shon.

Speaker 1

Yes, Jerico, thank you. And thanks, everyone. It's a great collection of questions. Look, I'll just end by saying thank you to our partners and our team. It's great to start off with a record quarter.

Speaker 1

A very I think our busiest deal pipeline and a pretty handy commodity price backdrop for this company. So we just turned 8. It's been an exciting 8 years, a good start to 2024. And I'm really excited to see what lies in store for us for the remainder of this year. So with that, all the best for the rest of your day.

Speaker 1

We're off to our AGM. And thanks so much.

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Earnings Conference Call
Triple Flag Precious Metals Q1 2024
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