Western Midstream Partners Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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May 9, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Constantine, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Western Midstream Partners First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer I would now like to turn the conference over to Daniel Jenkins, Director of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead. Thank you. I'm glad you could join us today for Western Midstream's Q1 2024 conference call. I'd like to remind you that today's call, the accompanying slide deck and last night's earnings release contain important disclosures regarding forward looking statements and non GAAP reconciliations. Please reference Western Midstream's most recent Form 10 Q and other public filings for a description of risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss today.

Operator

Relevant reference materials are posted on our website. With me today are Michael Ure, our Chief Executive Officer and Kristen Schultz, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Michael.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm excited to announce that the Q1 exceeded our expectations as strong producer activity levels, higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redeterminations that became effective on January 1, and our continued focus on maintaining high levels of system operability, all contributed to better than expected throughput increases and higher overall profitability. Also based on the latest producer forecasts, we expect these throughput trends to continue throughout the year. Thus, we now expect higher average year over year throughput growth rates for all products, and we expect to end up near the high end of our previously disclosed adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance ranges. Kristen will provide more detail on our updated guidance expectations shortly.

Speaker 1

Before we get into the specifics of the Q1, I'm pleased to announce that Mentone Train 3 completed the commissioning phase and became operational in early April. This is our first major construction project since becoming a standalone enterprise, and I would like to thank and congratulate all the teams that worked so diligently to bring Mentone III to completion. This achievement increases our natural gas processing capacity at our West Texas complex in the Delaware Basin by approximately 18%, which will benefit West financially due to our fixed fee processing agreements and reduce reliance on offloads going forward. Again, many thanks to all of our employees and contractors that played a critical role in bringing Mentone III online safely and in line with our initial cost estimates. Focusing on our Q1 performance, continued strong producer activity levels resulted in increased throughput across all our core operated assets.

Speaker 1

Specifically, in the Delaware Basin, we benefited from additional wells coming online sequentially, which resulted in another quarter of record breaking natural gas and produced water throughput from the basin. In the DJ Basin, both natural gas and crude oil and NGL's throughput increased quarter over quarter, a trend we expect to result in annual average year over year growth. And in the Powder River Basin, throughput also increased primarily due to a full quarter's contribution from Meritage and volume growth from those assets, a trend we expect will gradually increase throughout 2024, especially for natural gas volumes. This increased throughput and higher cost of service rates were the main drivers behind the $26,000,000 increase in our adjusted gross margin compared to the 4th quarter. Additionally, certain operating costs were lower than anticipated, resulting in higher than expected adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 1

Finally, I'm pleased to announce that we officially closed all of our non core asset sales that we highlighted on last quarter's earnings call. At quarter end, West's net leverage ratio on a trailing 12 month basis was approximately 3.3 times, which incorporates 5.5 months of contribution from Meritage, as well as the proceeds received from the non core asset sales that closed throughout the Q1, and we now expect to exit 2024 at or below our 3x leverage threshold. With that, I will turn the call over to Kristin to discuss our operational and financial performance.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. Our Q1 natural gas throughput increased by 2% on a sequential quarter basis. This was primarily driven by increased throughput in the Delaware and DJ Basins and a full quarter of Meritage throughput, which closed in mid October of last year. We also saw increased throughput from our natural gas equity investments during the quarter. Going forward, we expect the sale of the Marcellus gathering system early in April to impact our 2nd quarter natural gas volumes by approximately 140,000,000 cubic feet per day.

Speaker 2

Looking at crude oil and NGLs, as a reminder, the divestitures of both the Whitethorn Pipeline and the Mount Bellevue joint venture closed simultaneously with signing of their respective sales agreements in mid February. Additionally, both the Saddlehorn and Panola Pipeline divestitures closed in late March. These non core asset sales were the primary driver behind the 20% sequential quarter throughput reduction on a reported basis. On an operated basis, our crude oil and NGL throughput increased by 2% on a sequential quarter basis. Throughput increased sequentially from both the DJ and Powder River basins.

Speaker 2

However, volumes were unchanged in the Delaware Basin due to producer level disruptions caused by Winter Storm Jerry in mid January. Produced water throughput increased by 7% on a sequential quarter basis due to increased completion activity. Our Q1 per Mcf adjusted gross margin for natural gas assets increased by $0.03 compared to the prior quarter. This increase was primarily driven by increased throughput at the West Texas complex, which has a higher than average per Mcf margin as compared to our other natural gas assets. In addition to higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redetermination that became effective January 1 and increased efficiency revenue from certain contracts, This increase was partially offset by the favorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustment associated with our South Texas assets that was recorded in the 4th quarter and did not reoccur in the Q1.

Speaker 2

We expect our 2nd quarter per Mcf adjusted gross margin to be in line with the Q1. Our first quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin for crude oil and NGL assets increased by $0.49 compared to the prior quarter due to the sale of our interest in Whitethorn, Saddlehorn and Panola pipelines and the Mount Bellevue joint venture, all of which have lower than average per unit margins as compared to our other crude oil and NGL assets. We expect our 2nd quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin to be in line with the Q1. Our Q1 per barrel adjusted gross margin for our produced water assets increased by $0.09 compared to the prior quarter, primarily due to increased throughput and higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redetermination that became effective on January 1. We expect our 2nd quarter per barrel adjusted gross margin to be in line with the Q1.

Speaker 2

During the Q1, we generated record net income attributable to limited partners of $560,000,000 which included a $240,000,000 gain pertaining to the sale of non core assets and record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $608,000,000 Relative to the Q4 of 2023, our adjusted gross margin increased by $26,000,000 This increase was mostly driven by increased throughput and higher rates associated with the cost of service rate redeterminations that became effective on January 1 in the Delaware Basin. These increases were partially offset by the favorable revenue recognition cumulative adjustments associated with our South Texas and our DJ Basin oil system that occurred in the Q4 and did not occur in the Q1 of this year. Additionally, our adjusted EBITDA benefited from lower operation and maintenance expense and slightly lower G and A and property and other taxes on a sequential quarter basis. Going forward, we expect our operation and maintenance expense to trend modestly higher in both the second and third quarters, primarily driven by increased throughput, higher utility costs and our expanded asset base. As a reminder, we expect seasonality associated with our utility expense in the summer months due to higher estimated electricity pricing and greater energy usage in conjunction with increased throughput.

Speaker 2

We also expect property and other taxes to normalize in the Q2 and revert back to levels similar to the Q4 of last year. Turning to cash flow, our Q1 cash flow from operating activities totaled $400,000,000 generating free cash flow of $225,000,000 Free cash flow after our Q4 2023 distribution payment in February was $1,500,000 From a capital markets perspective, in the Q1, we opportunistically repurchased $15,100,000 of senior notes through open market transactions. And subsequent to quarter end, we had repurchased an additional $134,900,000 of various maturities of senior notes, all at approximately 96% of par. We will continue to be prudent allocators of capital and seek to capitalize on opportunities that generate the best possible return for our unitholders. Finally, in April, we declared a base distribution of $0.875 per unit, which is in line with our previous announcement in February.

Speaker 2

This represents an increase of 52% compared to the prior quarter's distribution and is payable on May 15 to unitholders as of May 1. Based on our throughput performance to date, we now expect our portfolio wide average year over year throughput to increase by mid to upper teens percentage for natural gas, low teens percentage for crude oil and NGLs and mid to upper teens percentage for produced water. Important to remember that our 2024 throughput expectations account for the non core asset sales we announced in February and exclude those volumes from our 2023 reported results for year over year comparative purposes. In the Delaware Basin, we now expect stronger year over year average growth rates for 2024 relative to 2023 for all three products: natural gas, crude oil and NGLs and produced water. This will mostly be driven by strong producer activity levels and a steady number of wells coming online throughout 2024, which has increased slightly relative to our initial expectations in February.

Speaker 2

We also signed an agreement to add one of our first third party customers for crude oil and NGL's gathering and treating services in the Delaware Basin, which we expect to begin yielding benefits from late in the second quarter. In the DJ Basin, we continue to expect average year over year throughput to increase for both natural gas and crude oil and NGLs. This increase will be driven by throughput growth from approximately double the new well count in 2024 relative to 2023. As a reminder, increases in crude oil and NGLs throughput in 2024 will have a minimal impact on our adjusted EBITDA in the near term due to the current structure of demand fee revenue. Finally, we continue to expect meaningful throughput growth from the Powder River Basin in 2024, especially for natural gas, primarily due to the full year's contribution from Meritage and steady throughput growth from customers in the basin.

Speaker 2

As customers continue to refine their drilling programs in the basin, we will continue to work together and allocate the necessary capital to help them accelerate their development plans in the Powder River Basin. Given 1st quarter's outperformance and our updated throughput expectations, we now expect to be towards the high end of our previously announced adjusted EBITDA range $2,200,000,000 to $2,400,000,000 for the year. However, we expect our adjusted gross margin to be flat in the 2nd quarter, primarily due to lower distributions from equity investments from the closing of the non core asset sales. Additionally, we expect higher operation and maintenance expense in the 2nd quarter, mostly due to higher expected utility costs and increased asset maintenance and repair expense to result in slightly lower adjusted EBITDA on a sequential quarter basis. We continue to expect our 2024 capital expenditure guidance to range between $700,000,000 $850,000,000 implying a midpoint of 775,000,000 dollars We still expect just over 80% of our capital budget to be spent in the Delaware Basin, the majority of which as expansion capital for the North Loving plant construction and additional system expansion in our core operating basins to facilitate continued throughput growth.

Speaker 2

Taking into account the high end of our adjusted EBITDA and our unchanged capital expenditure guidance ranges, we now expect to be towards the high end of our previously announced free cash flow guidance range of $1,050,000,000 to $1,250,000,000 Our full year base distribution guidance of at least $3.20 per unit remains unchanged. We will continue to evaluate the base distribution on a quarterly basis, influenced by the health and growth trajectory of our business. If performance materializes in line with current expectations, we would expect greater opportunity to evaluate increased returns of capital. As a reminder, any potential enhanced distribution payment in 2025 will be based on our full year 2024 financial performance, governed by our 2024 year end leverage threshold of 3 times and subject to the Board's discretion. Finally, we expect to be free cash flow positive after distributions in 2024 when taking into account the high end of our free cash flow guidance range and our unchanged base distribution guidance.

Speaker 2

I'll now turn the call back over to Michael.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kristen. Before we open it up for Q and A, I would like to highlight a few key points and reiterate why West presents such a compelling investment opportunity. First, I think it is important to reflect on the actions we have taken to optimize the MLP model and position WES as a leader amongst our peers in the midstream space. Since becoming a standalone enterprise in 2020, we have taken significant steps to optimize our asset portfolio, reduce operational costs and focus on generating substantial free cash flow. In fact, we were the 1st midstream MLP to focus on free cash flow as a financial performance indicator versus the conventional MLP metrics of distributable cash flow and distribution coverage.

Speaker 1

This shift resulted in the creation of our robust capital return framework that has included substantial debt reduction, opportunistic unit buybacks and the implementation of our enhanced distribution framework designed to return excess cash to unitholders. Additionally, we were one of the 1st midstream MLPs to enhance our liquidity and greatly strengthen our balance sheet by selling non core assets, prudently investing expansion capital in line with producer minimum volume commitments and aligning our distribution policy with the general growth trajectory of our business. This strategy, along with our strong capital return framework, has optimized the MLP model and transformed WES into a leader within the midstream space. With that said, the current average MLP valuation trades at approximately 8 times, a discount of 5.5 times compared to the average MLP valuation from 2011 through 2016. Furthermore, despite stronger balance sheets, plentiful liquidity and strong future business prospects, the average current distribution yield is just over 9% compared to the average MLP distribution yield of 7% from 2011 through 2016, a time when midstream MLPs generated negative free cash flow and leverage was increasing.

Speaker 1

Over the last few years, the operating model of many midstream MLPs has changed. And while both models provide the same tax deferred benefits, the new MLP model has made great strides in addressing the deficiencies of the old MLP model. Improving the health and sustainability of the partnerships and enhancing LP unitholder benefits by removing incentive distribution rights, for example, the new MLP model is deserving of a valuation rerate and at current valuations presents a very compelling investment opportunity, taking into account historical valuation multiples for the midstream space. Furthermore, when you take into account West's recent annualized distribution increase, our partnership now provides the highest distribution yield compared to the average yield of other midstream peers and of all subsectors within the S and P 500 Index. West Now provides one of the strongest tax deferred investment opportunities, not only within the midstream space, but relative to all subsectors of the S and P 500.

Speaker 1

Additionally, while we don't endorse the accuracy or completeness of consensus estimates, we note that multi year consensus for WES shows free cash flow generation increasing over the coming years. If achieved, this growth should result in leading free cash flow yields relative to our midstream peers and potentially allow for incremental opportunities to return capital back to stakeholders. In 2025, for example, many of our peers would need to generate substantially more free cash flow than their current 2025 consensus estimates to match West' approximate 11% estimated free cash flow yield. This endorses the fact that even in the longer term, West remains comparatively undervalued relative to peers within an MLP valuation paradigm that itself feels undervalued. Furthermore, as an MLP, we are not subject to the incremental cash flow burden associated with income taxes, thereby creating incremental opportunities to allocate capital back into growing the business or to stakeholders.

Speaker 1

The adoption of strong operating philosophies in combination with our strong diversified asset base, low leverage and robust free cash flow have all resulted in a more sustainable financially secure partnership. WES has clearly transformed into a leader within the midstream space and is much better positioned to navigate obstacles and capitalize on future opportunities. To close, I would like to thank the entire West workforce for all of their hard work and dedication. Our strong Q1 performance provides a great start to the year and our teams are focused on making substantial progress towards achieving our 2024 goals. With that, we will open the line for questions.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Keith Stanley from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hi, thank you. Just wanted to start and ask if how much progress has been on securing new firm contracts that would support another plant beyond North Loving? Are you far along in getting more

Speaker 1

need to have to add another plant at North Loving. Again, reminder, we're expecting to have North Loving 1 come online Q1 of 2025. And as it sits right now, we're not actually seeing the need to add incremental plant capacity after that.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks. Second one, just Occidental slides the other day, they showed an uplift for them from over the next few years from midstream contract expirations. I want to just confirm that's with other mid stream providers and you don't see any meaningful amount exposed on the West side given your contracts generally run longer duration?

Speaker 1

Yes. None of those figures are actually relative to contracts with WES.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis from Citi. Your line is

Speaker 4

open. Thanks, operator. Afternoon, team. Maybe just go back to Keith's initial question, just thinking about the processing needs going forward. Maybe just give us a sense for Mentone coming online, how quickly that fills up?

Speaker 4

And then with North Loving, how quickly that fills up as well? And just maybe how you're planning to utilize offloads from here, which have been pretty effective in defraying some of the cost of capital here?

Speaker 1

Yes. So, hey, Spiro. Thanks for the question. So we are operating at full capacity for Mentone 3. We do still have some offloads that will continue up until we bring North Loving 1 online in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker 1

So again, they'll continue to bridge us until we get that online at that time.

Speaker 4

Okay, understood. And then maybe just thinking about the commercial side of things. Kristen, I think you had mentioned a new 3rd party customer on the NGL side. And then I guess, if we just take a step back, At one point in time, when you were sort of spinning out some more of an independent company, there was this broader push to bring in more third party business. Just kind of curious to get an update on where that stands and where it stacks up on the priority list for you?

Speaker 2

Yes. That's still a huge priority for our team. They've brought in, we've covered this kind of in last year's year end call as well, just numerous customers in the Delaware Basin as well as new business with existing customers. So in fact if you look at our Delaware Basin 3rd party growth it's double what the Permian growth has been over the last few years as well. And that's really a testament to the hard work that our commercial operations engineering teams have been doing, our ability to get our cost down and really go after that business.

Speaker 4

Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks everybody.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Beryl.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, this is Noah Katz on for Jeremy. First, I wanted to touch on the timing of the non core asset sales you guys closed on in the quarter. Previously, we expected a step down in the crude and NGL volumes within equity interest in the Q1 with 2 of the sales in the Q1 and 3 in the second quarter. Can you speak to how the difference in timing impacted results for the quarter and the cadence of the step down in equity investment volumes? Like what should we expect throughout the remainder of 2024?

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So we closed on 4 of the 5 asset sales in Q1. So you did see a volume step down from Q4 of 2023 to Q1 of 2024. I still expect there to be because of the last sale that we closed in Q4 and just the timing within Q1, too, you'll see another little bit of a step down from Q1 to Q2. Overall, with all of the asset divestitures, the oil volume should be decreasing relative to last year about 2 thirds by the time you're all set and done.

Speaker 5

Thanks for that. That's helpful. And as a follow-up, can you speak to your expectation for CapEx cadence throughout 'twenty four? I mean, you guys reported about $205,000,000 in the quarter and I think you have guidance for the full year at $775,000,000 at the midpoint. So just trying to think through how the rest of the year should shake out now that Mentone III is in service?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Q1 strong capital for the quarter. I would expect to see that for Q2 and Q3 as well. We've got we are full steam ahead and building on North Loving there. As we get towards maybe the latter part of the year, we might see a little bit of a step down in Q4, but pretty strong as we're looking through the summer months and into the fall.

Speaker 5

Sounds good. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Zach Van Averine from TTH and Company. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Just on the free cash flow continuing to increase, do you guys have a preference between buybacks and just letting the enhanced distribution kick in if it meets all those metrics?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think what you've seen, Zach, as time has gone on, after we've repurchased 15% of the company using the buybacks, we obviously still believe that that's a strong tool for us. But it's intended to be utilized when we see sort of disconnections from a market perspective. We've seen a much more healthy market as of late, which is why we've focused more on the distribution as a whole. You did see that at in the middle of the quarter and then subsequent to quarter end, we actually repurchased a fair amount on the debt side to again make sure that we achieve the leverage threshold that we're focused on for year end 2024 as well as to see some arbitrage opportunities relative to the rate on that debt relative to the cash rate that we're able to receive.

Speaker 1

And so if things continue as has occurred, we would intend to continue to focus on those areas, continued distribution growth and payback to unitholders and then leverage opportunities

Speaker 6

that might exist as we progress and continue to achieve the free cash flow targets that we've talked about. Perfect. That makes sense. And then maybe just one, I think you guys touched on this last quarter, but you do still have some maybe what would be considered non core assets whether that's in Utah or Southwest Wyoming. Are you still looking at holding on to those or how you see the M and

Speaker 5

A markets for some of

Speaker 6

those kind of non core assets you guys still have?

Speaker 1

Yes. So, I would remove Utah from that. I think that we very much see our operations there with Jupita as being core to us. The equity method investments that we have, however, we definitely continue to look at opportunities that we can optimize around those assets. They obviously have value to us.

Speaker 1

However, if someone is willing to pay a value that's greater to them than what it is that we value them at, then we'll continue to divest those over time. Our posture around those have been pretty consistent over the past 4 to 5 years and would expect that that would continue as long as we hold them.

Speaker 6

Perfect. That's all I had. Thanks guys. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta from UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, guys. Just on the CapEx front, once you do get the North Loving plant up and running, then what would be a good CapEx cadence for maybe on a run rate basis for 2025 once North Loving does come online?

Speaker 1

Yes. So the direction that we would give is that if the current activity levels sort of remain where we're at, we'd probably look to 2022 as a pretty good guide in terms of what expected capital should be, should we not have those kind of larger projects, I. E, building out a plant. And that was give or take in the $500,000,000 range from a capital perspective.

Speaker 7

Perfect. And a quick follow-up and as I understand company should be conservative, you did beat strong and you're guiding towards the top end of the range. What can be the blue sky scenario here which could get you above the top end of the range as the year progresses?

Speaker 1

Yes. We have continued outperformance from a volume perspective. If we're able to continue to see the operational efficiencies on the cost side that we've been able to drive through really for many years now, but really continue to reap the benefits for altogether. That in addition to adding new opportunities out there throughout the year is where we would expect that that could potentially drive us above the high end of the range.

Speaker 7

Thank you so much.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Uhr, I turn the call back over to you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you everyone for joining. We look forward to speaking to you in 3 months' time.

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Earnings Conference Call
Western Midstream Partners Q1 2024
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