Marsh & McLennan Companies Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 18, 2024

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Marsh McLennan's Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. 2nd Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Supplemental Information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com. Please note that remarks made today may include forward looking statements.

Operator

Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10 ks, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website. During the call today, we may also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our 2nd quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. On the call with me is Mark McGibney, our CFO and the CEOs of our businesses, Martin South of Marsh Dean Klasseur of Guy Carpenter Pat Tomlinson of Mercer and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah DeWitt, Head of Investor Relations. Before I get into our results, I'd like to comment on the attempted assassination of former U.

Speaker 1

S. President Donald Trump this past weekend. We're thankful that he is safe and our hearts go out to the victims and their loved ones. Violence has no place in our politics or our society. We condemn it and affirm our commitment to civil discussion, debate and resolution.

Speaker 1

Our political process and democracy depend on all candidates having the ability to safely convey their visions for our country. We believe that each of us can help shape peaceful public discourse and advocate for a culture of respect and unity. Now turning to the 2nd quarter, Marsh McLennan delivered strong results across our businesses and geographies. We generated 6% underlying revenue growth on top of 11% in the Q2 of last year, reflecting strong execution in both RIS and Consulting. We grew adjusted operating income 11% from a year ago.

Speaker 1

Our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points and adjusted EPS grew 10%. We also announced a 15% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.815 and completed $300,000,000 of share repurchases during the quarter. These results highlight our consistent focus on delivering in the near term while investing for sustained growth over the long term. We're benefiting from organic investments we've made in our talent and capabilities, And we also continue to make high quality acquisitions that build on the scale and breadth of our business. The Q2, we announced several significant transactions.

Speaker 1

Mercer announced an agreement to acquire Cardano, a long term savings specialist in the UK and Netherlands with approximately $66,000,000,000 in AUM, Cardano operates the 3rd largest UK master trust platform and serves more than 2,000,000 customers across 27,000 employers. This transaction builds on our leading position in OCIO, enhances our DC offerings and adds important trading capabilities. Oliver Wyman agreed to acquire Veritas Total Solutions, an advisor in commodity and energy markets. And Marsh McLennan Agency completed 3 acquisitions in the quarter. Fisher, Brown, Petrell, 1 of the 5 largest bank affiliate agencies in the United States, specializing in commercial P and C insurance and employee benefits, FBB expands our presence across the Southeast.

Speaker 1

AC Risk Management builds on our scale in commercial P&C in the Northeast and Perkins Insurance Agencies adds to our commercial P&C business in Texas. Last week MMA also announced the acquisition of Horton, a top 100 broker with over $100,000,000 in revenue operating primarily in the Midwest. And we recently announced the acquisitions of Ameristar, a commercial P and C high net worth agency based in Minnesota and Hudson Shore, a public sector employee benefits agency in New Jersey. These acquisitions are great examples of our ability to attract the very best insurance agencies to our company. And along with high rates of sustained underlying growth, they've helped to make MMA a $3,500,000,000 annual revenue business.

Speaker 1

We also continue to help our clients thrive by investing in innovation, Drawing on our expertise, perspective, data and insights, we are creating new solutions for a complex environment. For example, Marsh continues to evolve Blueye, a digital suite of solutions for insurance strategy decisions that uses our data and analytics to generate insights for clients. This quarter, we added Blueye Risk Appetite Analytics to help clients define the amount and type of risk they're willing to retain. With customizable calculations, our insights help clients navigate a challenging landscape with greater confidence. Guy Carpenter launched CatStop Plus, a new solution to address the volatility of cyber risk using GC's proprietary analytics.

Speaker 1

CatStop Plus offers clients protection against cyber cat losses. Mercer launched SelectRx, a technology solution in the U. S. That creates competition amongst pharmacies for high cost specialty medications. Leveraging Free Market Health's cloud based platform, Select Rx lowers cost for employers and delivers savings to employees by directing prescriptions to a curated network of specialty pharmacies.

Speaker 1

And Oliver Wyman is helping our clients innovate in their own businesses with the launch of Quotient, which combines our expertise in AI implementation, deployment and strategic advisory with our deep industry knowledge. Quotient moves clients beyond the hype surrounding AI to deliver real value and meaningful outcomes. Our approach to balancing near term performance with investment and innovation delivers significant value to our clients. It also enables us to sustain growth over the long term and drive consistent exceptional performance for shareholders. Shifting to the macro picture, we continue to see significant opportunity to help clients navigate the complexity they're facing today.

Speaker 1

Beyond the shocking assassination attempt in the U. S, the geopolitical backdrop is unsettled with ongoing wars and areas of tension across the globe. Uncertainty also remains around the frequency of extreme weather, escalating cyber attacks and key variables in the economic outlook like the persistence of inflation and the timing of changes to Central Bank policy. Despite this uncertainty, the environment remains supportive of growth in our business. In general, we see continued economic growth in most of our major markets.

Speaker 1

The cost of risk in healthcare continues to rise and labor markets remain tight. And the consensus probability of a near term recession for major economies continues to decrease. We have performed well across economic cycles through the resilience of our business, sustained demand for our advice and solutions and consistent execution for our clients. Turning to insurance and reinsurance market conditions. The Marsh Global Insurance Market Index was flat overall in the 2nd quarter versus a 1% increase in the 1st quarter.

Speaker 1

Generally, rates in the U. S, Europe and Latin America continue to increase in the low to mid single digits, while the UK, Asia and Pacific saw lowtomidsingledigit decreases. Global property rates were flat versus up 3% in the Q1. Casualty increased in the low single digits with U. S.

Speaker 1

Excess casualty up 10% in the quarter, while workers' compensation decreased low single digits. Financial and professional liability rates and cyber pricing were down 5% and 6%, respectively. Mid year reinsurance renewals reflected increased demand for property cat with easing rates after significant increases in 2023. The majority of property placements were completed at renewal with adequate capacity. The global property cat reinsurance rates were generally flat to down mid single digits with greater decreases for upper layers on accounts without losses.

Speaker 1

The cat bond market had the most active quarter on record with over 30 new bonds issued involving approximately $8,000,000,000 of limit. Casualty programs face continued underwriting scrutiny, but there was adequate capacity in the market. Excessive loss programs with U. S. Exposure saw upward pricing pressure, while quota share ceding commissions were flat to down slightly.

Speaker 1

As always, we are helping our clients navigate these dynamic market conditions. Now let me turn to our Q2 financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.41 which is up 10% from a year ago. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 6%. Underlying revenue grew 7% in RIS and 4% in consulting.

Speaker 1

Marsh was up 7%, Guy Carpenter 11%, Mercer 5% and Oliver Wyman grew 3%. Overall, the 2nd quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 11% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points year over year. Turning to our outlook, we are well positioned for another great year in 2024. We continue to expect mid single digit or better underlying revenue growth, another year of margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS. Our outlook assumes current macro conditions persist, however, meaningful uncertainty remains and the economic backdrop could be materially different than our assumptions.

Speaker 1

Overall, I'm proud of our 2nd quarter performance, which demonstrates continued execution on key initiatives and momentum across our business. I'm grateful to our colleagues for their focus and determination and the value they deliver to our clients, shareholders and communities. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our Q2 results were strong with solid underlying growth, significant margin expansion and 10% growth in adjusted EPS. Our consolidated revenue increased 6% to $6,200,000,000 with underlying growth of 6%. Operating income was $1,600,000,000 and adjusted operating income was $1,700,000,000 up 11%. Our adjusted operating margin increased 130 basis points to 29%.

Speaker 2

GAAP EPS was $2.27 and adjusted EPS was $2.41 For the 1st 6 months of 2024, underlying revenue growth was 8%, our adjusted operating income grew 11% to $3,700,000,000 our adjusted operating margin increased 100 basis points and our adjusted EPS increased 12 percent to $5.30 Looking at Risk and Insurance Services, 2nd quarter revenue $4,000,000,000 up 8% from a year ago or 7% on an underlying basis. This result marks the 14th consecutive quarter 7% or higher underlying growth in RIS and continues the best stretch of growth in 2 decades. RIS operating income was $1,300,000,000 in the 2nd quarter. Adjusted operating income was also $1,300,000,000 up 12% over last year and our adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points to 35.3%. For the 1st 6 months of the year, revenue in RIS was $8,300,000,000 with underlying growth of 8%.

Speaker 2

Adjusted operating income increased 12 percent to $2,900,000,000 and our margin increased 90 basis points to 37.3%. At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $3,300,000,000 up 8% from a year ago or 7% on an underlying basis. This strong growth came on top of 10% growth in the Q2 of last year. Growth in the 2nd quarter reflected strong new business and solid renewals. In U.

Speaker 2

S. And Canada, underlying growth was 6% for the quarter. In international, underlying growth was 7%. EMEA was up 7%, Asia Pacific grew 7% and Latin America was up 8%. For the 1st 6 months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $6,300,000,000 with underlying growth of 7%.

Speaker 2

U. S. And Canada grew 7% and international was up 8%. Dye Carpenter's revenue was $632,000,000 in the quarter, up 10% or 11% on an underlying basis. This terrific result came on top of 11% growth last year and was driven by double digit growth across most geographies and specialties.

Speaker 2

For the 1st 6 months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1,800,000,000 of revenue and 9% underlying growth. In the Consulting segment, 2nd quarter revenue was $2,200,000,000 up 2% from a year ago or 4% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $410,000,000 and adjusted operating income was $426,000,000 up 6%. Our adjusted operating margin in consulting was 19.8% in the 2nd quarter, an increase of 60 basis points. For the 1st 6 months of 2024, consulting revenue was $4,400,000,000 reflecting underlying growth of 6%.

Speaker 2

Adjusted operating income increased 7% to $870,000,000 and our margin increased 50 basis points to 20.3%. Mercer's revenue was $1,400,000,000 in the quarter, flat compared to a year ago but up 5% on an underlying basis. This was Mercer's 13th straight quarter of 5% or higher underlying growth and continues the best run of growth in 15 years. Wealth grew 3% driven by growth in both Investment Management and DB Consultant. Our assets under management were $492,000,000,000 at the end of the second quarter, up 1% sequentially and up 25% compared to the Q2 of last year.

Speaker 2

Year over year growth was driven by our transaction with Vanguard, Impact of Capital Markets and positive net flows. Health underlying growth remained strong at 9% and reflected growth across all regions. Career revenue increased 2% continuing the trend of modest growth following a 2 year stretch of strong growth in demand.

Speaker 1

For the

Speaker 2

1st 6 months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $2,800,000,000 with 6% underlying growth. Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $837,000,000 an increase of 3% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 11% growth a year ago. For the 1st 6 months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was 1 point $6,000,000,000 an increase of 8% on an underlying basis up from 6% growth in the first half of last year. Foreign exchange was a $0.02 headwind in the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 2

Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a $0.02 headwind in the 3rd quarter and $0.02 in the 4th quarter. Total noteworthy items in the quarter were 73,000,000 dollars These included $44,000,000 of restructuring costs mostly related to the program we began in the Q4 of 2022 as well as some transaction related expense. Our other net benefit credit was $66,000,000 in the quarter. For the full year, we continue to expect our other net benefit credit will be approximately 265,000,000 dollars Interest expense in the Q2 was $156,000,000 up from $146,000,000 in the Q2 last year, reflecting higher levels of debt and higher interest rates. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $154,000,000 of interest expense in the Q3 and approximately $620,000,000 for the full year.

Speaker 2

Our adjusted effective tax rate in the 2nd quarter was 26.2% compared with 24.2% in the Q2 of last year. Our tax rate in both periods benefited from favorable discrete Excluding discrete items, our adjusted effective tax rate was approximately 26.5%. When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate of between 25.5% 26.5% for 2024. Turning to capital management and our balance sheet.

Speaker 2

We ended the quarter with total debt of 13,500,000,000 dollars Our next scheduled debt maturity is in the Q1 of 2025 when $500,000,000 of senior notes mature. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4,500,000,000 of capital in 2024 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how the M and A pipeline develops. Last week, we announced a 15% increase to our quarterly dividend making this our 50th consecutive year of dividend growth. This comes on top of a 20% increase a year ago and reflects our strong earnings growth and confidence in our outlook.

Speaker 2

Our cash position at the end of the second quarter was $1,700,000,000 Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1,200,000,000 and included $352,000,000 for dividends, dollars 500,000,000 for acquisitions and $300,000,000 for share repurchases. 1st 6 months uses of cash totaled $2,200,000,000 and included $706,000,000 for dividends, dollars 847,000,000 for acquisitions and $600,000,000 for share repurchases. While there continues to be uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy, we feel good about the momentum in our business and the current environment remains supportive of growth. Overall, our excellent first half leaves us well positioned for another great year in 2024. Based on our outlook today, for the full year, we continue to expect mid single digit or better underlying growth, margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

Speaker 2

With that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mark. Andrew, we are ready to begin Q and A.

Operator

Certainly. We will now begin the question and answer session. We ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. One moment please. Our first question comes from the line of David Motamedian with Evercore ISI.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Good morning. Just had a question on the underlying revenue growth outlook of mid single digit or greater. You guys just did 8% in the first half of underlying revenue growth, but aren't increasing the range to high single digit. Could you just help me think through the puts and takes in terms of why you guys aren't increasing the range?

Speaker 1

Good morning, David. Sure. So, yes, I mean, first of all, just say, I was pleased with our growth in the quarter. It was on top of a very big quarter a year ago at 11%. Marsh had good solid growth by region and practice on top of a tough comp.

Speaker 1

Carpenter had an excellent quarter. Market improvements led to increased demand after a pretty volatile reinsurance market in 2023. Mercer again had another solid quarter of growth. Mark noted in his comments, best growth, stretch of growth in a long period of time. Health remains very strong.

Speaker 1

Wealth growth was solid and we actually saw an uptick in career growth from the Q1. Oliver Wyman had a very tough comp, but had good growth, has had good growth year to date. And as we pointed out in the past, we'll have more quarter to quarter volatility than our other businesses. What I would say is broadly speaking, the macros continue to be supportive of growth. It's a risky environment.

Speaker 1

We're all operating in, but GDP, inflation, labor markets, the rising cost of risk, rising cost of healthcare, all supportive. And I feel very, very I feel like we're very well positioned. We have the best talent in the markets that we compete in. And so we're positive on our outlook for the second half. Again, it remains a good market for us.

Speaker 1

And so we feel good about where we are.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thanks, John. And then, Mark, I think you mentioned on last quarter's call that you guys are expecting greater margin expansion in the second half than in the first half. Is that still the case?

Speaker 1

You want to go ahead, Mark?

Speaker 2

Yes. We're really happy with 130 basis points and it validated the statements we made about the Q1 margin expansion facing headwinds from several items. So we were good we're glad to see the acceleration and we're on track for solid margin expansion for the year.

Speaker 1

Thank you, David. Andrew, next question.

Operator

One moment please for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JP Morgan.

Speaker 4

Morgan. So first, John, just following up on your comments on Oliver Wyman. The growth this quarter slowed versus what it's been the last few quarters. How much of that is a function of just tough comps and normal volatility in the business versus maybe a slowdown in the pipeline?

Speaker 1

Yes. Jimmy, thanks for the question. I'll hand it to Nick here. But I think it's some of both, right? But it was a tough comp for sure, but we feel very good about the year to growth year to date growth.

Speaker 1

Excuse me. Nick, you want to add a little bit more depth? Yes.

Speaker 5

I think John's right. Jimmy, it's a little bit of both. But in the same way that I noted last quarter that our 13% was against the weak 0% comp. This 3% is against a tougher 11%. That 8% year to date, I think, is bang in that zone of mid to high single digit growth we expect to average through the cycle.

Speaker 5

And as you know, our quarters are always somewhat volatile. Mark kindly noted in his comments that the first half actually accelerated versus the first half last year. To give you a little bit of color on where we are seeing higher growth, regionally both Asia and India, Middle East and Africa regions have continued on strong growth from an industry perspective. Our communications, media and technology practice has been our fastest growing year to date, but our very strong banking and insurance practice is also in positive territory as is our public sector practice. And we have a wide array of capabilities.

Speaker 5

Our economic research business, NEERA, growing strongly, our market leading finance and risk practice, particularly in financial services, our pricing team. And importantly, our people and organizational performance practice, which really works across our industries to help on big client transformative moment. But the market is a little bit uncertain. While the economy seems to be better, it's still a pressured environment for discretionary spending, some uncertainties as John and Mark have highlighted. And we do see we're sort of working through some pricing pressure due to excess capacity

Speaker 6

as some

Speaker 5

of our competitors work through some of their headcount actions.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Nick. Jimmy, do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 4

Yes. Just on and maybe for Mark on fiduciary investment income, it was it's been sort of flattish on a sequential basis. So should we assume given where rates are that going forward it's going to grow just with growth in the business? Or was the sequential flat results in Tokyo more of a function of seasonality and balances of other factors?

Speaker 2

Mark? Jimmy, there is seasonality and balances as we've talked about in the past. But I think the biggest driver I think from here is just going to be the outlook for rates. As we've talked about and you saw on our balance sheet in the quarter, we've got about $11,500,000,000 of fiduciary balances. And so I think just where we go from here is just going to be what the central banks do with short term interest rates.

Speaker 2

And just as you're modeling going forward, keep in mind that our balances do reflect the revenue mix of our business. So it's not just U. S. Rates obviously that drive. We've got balances because of the distributed nature

Speaker 4

of our business all over the world. So, yes, so as I

Speaker 2

said, the outlook really is going to be mostly a function of what the rate picture looks like.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jimmy. Andrew, next question.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, within RIS, can you give us a sense of how much the expenses helped your margins in the quarter?

Speaker 1

Expense saves? And you're saving the program. Yes. Okay. Sure.

Speaker 1

Sure. Thanks Elyse.

Speaker 2

Mark? Elyse, we're definitely seeing the benefit of it. We've stayed away from quantifying specifically how much is going to drop quarter to quarter. But you just even see the trend in expense growth quarter to quarter that was definitely a factor. Our strong growth and the benefit of savings contributed to that 130 basis points of margin expansion.

Speaker 2

So we're as I said, we haven't quantified the amount that we're seeing each quarter, but we are on track for the level of savings that we talked about and we're seeing the benefit of it.

Speaker 8

Do you have a follow-up, Elyse? Yes.

Speaker 7

And then my second question within Marsh, could you just give us a sense of what you're seeing some more color in both the U. S. And internationally within organic growth, both for the Q2 and then how you think about the outlook in the back half of the year? And are U. S.

Speaker 7

Or internationally, are you guys more indexed to property in one versus the other?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, the markets are quite dynamic, right? And so just caution you a little bit on pricing, right? I think Guy Carpenter is a good indication of that, right? So we saw a better market lead to increased demand.

Speaker 1

But as I mentioned earlier, it was a good solid growth by region and by practice, again, in the Q2 and on top of a tough comp. But Martin, maybe you could share a little bit more color on growth international versus U. S. And the demand you're seeing.

Speaker 6

Sure. Just to restate 7 in the quarter, which is on top of 10 for the Q2 of 2023. Quite balanced growth, the international at 7 and U. S. At 6, U.

Speaker 6

S. And Canada at 6%. Our U. S. Business MMA and VITA continue to perform very well in the U.

Speaker 6

S. Canada had a weaker quarter. Some macros there affected that, that pulled down a little bit. But across the international region, international was a 7% on top of 10% in 2023. Asia Pacific accelerated from 7% on top of 6% in 2023.

Speaker 6

Latin America did 8% on top of 17% in the Q2 of 2023 and EMEA did 7% on top of 11% in 2023. The performance was driven really by very strong performance internationally and in the benefits business. Construction, Energy and Power all came off strong double digit growth as well, repeating what happened last year. We're beginning to see some revitalization in the U. S.

Speaker 6

Capital markets, which has been a headwind for new business growth going back to 2021. Renewal base growth was strong and solid as was new business in both U. S. And Canada and international. And our lost business improved slightly as we continue to build sticky relationships with clients as we engage more deeply and we aspire to be the risk advisor of the future, talking to them well beyond conventional risk.

Speaker 6

We feel very well positioned. Overall, the mix of premium in the U. S. Will be more weighted to casualty in its broad terms and probably more balanced in international for property casualty to answer your it's a property to answer your question.

Speaker 1

Yes, reflection of the liability environment in the U. S. For sure. Thank you, Elyse, and thanks, Martin. Andrew, next question?

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 9

Yes, good morning. Just a quick question. Given the M and A pace has been pretty strong over past few quarters and certainly for the year, Just wondering if we should assume kind of a deceleration in the run rate for share buybacks in the second half versus the first half. Just how are you thinking about that? And how is your M and A tracking versus kind of what you thought going into the year?

Speaker 1

Yes. Sure, Scott. Thanks for the question. No change to our philosophy. We continue to take a balanced approach to capital management.

Speaker 1

We have about $4,500,000,000 to deploy during the course of the year. Broadly speaking, we favor attractive investments in our business, whether it's organic or inorganic over buybacks, but we're not going to let cash build up on the balance sheet either. As I noted earlier, we increased our dividend beginning in this quarter. We aspire to raise our dividend every year. We bought back 300,000,000 dollars of shares in the Q2.

Speaker 1

We're pleased with what we've seen in the M and A market. As I said, it was an active quarter. We announced a couple of deals really at the start here of the Q2 just after the 1st July. And so we're excited about those deals and we'll continue to be active in the market. But ultimately, the amount of share repurchase will depend on what's obviously a volatile M and A.

Speaker 1

You never know what the ultimate outcome will be in M and A, but we're seeing some good opportunities to invest in our business. Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 9

Yes. Just one quick one too. Just generally on Mercer, the health organic growth really strong again and 9% has been strong for quite a while. And the career and wealth, I guess, is a little bit slower compared to health. But just wondering if you can just kind of flush out what you're seeing there, the strength in health versus the other areas, if there's anything kind of holding back those areas besides just the kind of difficult comps?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Scott. And I'll ask Pat to comment in a second. But I mentioned rising healthcare costs in my opening remarks. It's a big pressure point for our clients in this economy.

Speaker 1

And so and particularly given tight labor markets in most major economies around the world. So it's really terrific value we're delivering to our clients in a very tough marketplace there. Wealth is going to have some volatility as will Korea quarter to quarter. But Pat, maybe you could talk a little bit about what we're seeing in the marketplace.

Speaker 9

Sure. Thanks and thanks so much for the question. First off, we're pleased with the Q2 underlying growth of 5% as market highlighted our 13th consecutive quarter with 5% growth and that all the practices are contributing to growth. Certainly health has been contributing at a higher rate. Quickly to kind of go through the practices and what we're seeing.

Speaker 9

Health, as you highlighted, had that impressive quarter with 9% growth. The strong performance was broad based, right. So there was double digit growth across most regions. It comes predominantly from investments in hiring new talent, investments in thought leadership, including our health on demand survey, new digital tools and a focus on client segmentation that's really designed to match our clients' healthcare needs with our innovative and tailored solutions. We benefited from renewal and some new business growth, some insurer revenue and has been highlighted a couple of times in the call medical cost inflation.

Speaker 9

Certainly, we continue to see strong demand for digital solutions and innovative benefits underscoring really the value of and the breadth of advice and solutions we bring to clients. Less growth in wealth and career, so let me quickly go through them. Wealth, we grew to 3% in Q2. That was balanced between DB and A and IMS, right. So DB plans, funding status continue to benefit from elevated interest rates.

Speaker 9

It's driving an increase in project work, predominantly revolving around risk transfers as well as certain regulatory requirements that are out in some of the jurisdictions around the world. When you add in the volatile capital markets, it's been driving some strong demand for actuarial and the investment solutions. John had highlighted that in the OCA, we did benefit from the transaction with Vanguard. We had some net new inflows and capital markets also provided a revenue lift. It's important to note that on IMS, from a business perspective, it's a portfolio of solutions, right?

Speaker 9

That includes some advisory work and some DC administration in addition to OCIO. So a lot of times it's typically looked at as OCIO and only our OCIO business is directly impacted by AUM. So as we've seen a market run up, really we only have a subset of that business that's directly impacted by AUM. And our AUM is a diversified portfolio where equities only make up about half of our exposure, right, because we have a lot of clients that have heavy fixed income exposure. So while the markets can drive some volatility for us, the impact of equity markets is a bit more muted in IMS growth.

Speaker 9

And then on career, which had the most modest growth of 2%, which was up sequentially over quarter, it is following a long period of growth after the pandemic. We saw good growth momentum from a couple of our practices, talent and transformation. Rewards was a bit more muted and I think that's predominantly reflecting the impact of lower wage inflation and reduced employee turnover, which is driving some slightly lower demand for clients at rewards projects. But I think it's also important to note here that while the growth rates fall down has been flat even over the last couple of quarters, it's been a bit more modest. The overall size of our career practice is nearly 20% larger than it was pre pandemic.

Speaker 9

So that's so we feel very strong about that, that we've been able to maintain those levels in a predominantly project based business. So overall, I think the conditions have us very positive about the outlook for Mercer. Terrific.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Pat. Scott, thank you for your questions. Andrew, next question.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 10

Hey, great. Good morning. Focusing on the property casualty pricing environment, I guess, competitive environment. John, I believe you said that the Marsh index dissolved again to 0 from 1. Just curious, given Marsh does have a lot more small to mid account business now too, it feels like there's like 2 different tales, 2 different stories going on between the large account and the SMID accounts.

Speaker 10

I don't know if you'd agree with that. And if yes, any color you could offer on kind of why we're seeing 2 different trends there on pricing?

Speaker 1

Sure, sure, sure, Mike. Thanks for the question. I'll share some eye level thoughts and then maybe I'll ask both Martin and Dean to talk about some market observations. I would note, Mike, just right out of the gate here that typically larger account pricing has more volatility attached. So if you look back on historical cycles, that's been the case.

Speaker 1

Mid market pricing has historically been more stable or more consistent, I guess, and have less volatility from cycle to cycle. And our index is weighted towards large accounts to be clear where we have the best data. But insurance and reinsurance markets continue to settle in the quarter after what's been many years of increases. It's not just middle versus large, it's a collection of markets. And while as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, cyber and FinPro may be the best example, prices continue to moderate.

Speaker 1

Some segments of the market are showing some what might be early signs of stress. U. S. Excess casualty, for example, prices were up 10% and loss cost inflation there remains quite challenging. But overall, right now, markets are providing an opportunity for our clients to revisit some decisions they've made about financing risk and that tighter market conditions led them to make certain decisions.

Speaker 1

So it's a welcome moment for many of our clients to revisit some of those decisions. And Guy Carpenter, as I mentioned earlier, it led to greater demand in the Q2 as evidenced by our strong growth. But Martin, maybe you could share a little bit more color on what we're seeing in the pricing market.

Speaker 6

Sure. Just reminding ourselves, 26 courses of rate increases, which just turned flat now. And as John noted, our index is geared much more towards the larger account segment of our business. And obviously the mid market business and the smaller end has less volatility and pricing. But just by line of business, casualty in the U.

Speaker 6

S. Is up 3%, which as John said, it's really dominated by the 10% increase in the umbrella, which we talked about in earlier calls about the volatility and claims inflation there. Property is flat in most regions except for the Middle East and India where we're still seeing some increases in property, maybe as a result of some of the activity in the Middle East in this past quarter. Core Finpro contracting at 5%, with rate decline pretty much across the world and cyber contracting 6%, which is mostly consistent with what we saw in Q1. The pricing trends consistent with recent courses.

Speaker 6

We're seeing some slight increases in geographies, but rate contraction is more than norm. And so those are the key issues really that I would comment on now. But of course, as far as our business is concerned, where a lot of our business is fee based or control commission basis and exposure growth has been different over the last few years as well, which is a counterweight to that.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Martin. Dean, maybe you could just quickly cover the reinsurance market.

Speaker 11

Yes. Thanks, John. And Mike, just a couple of headlines about the property cat reinsurance market, which certainly is connected to the underlying property market that Martin is describing. As John noted, it's a much more predictable and smooth market than we experienced last year in the 2023 hard market for property cat. Placements have been completed on time.

Speaker 11

There's been adequate capacity in the marketplace for our clients. There's an increased reinsurer appetite in the market and we know why, right? They're driving 20% plus ROEs in this market given the rate increases of last year and the higher attachment points our clients have been forced to absorb with greater volatility. We're seeing very strong ILS activity in the market. John noted record cat bond issuance in the quarter, 34 discrete cat bonds, some $8,000,000,000 of limit in the quarter.

Speaker 11

And I think that we're seeing moderating cat rates in the market compared to 2023. But I would say that if you look at year over year premium spend for property cat and our rate online index, it's still up 1% year over year. It has not gone negative in the market. And really as John noted, Mike, I think the headline, the key takeaway is significant increased client demand for additional property cat limit. In the first half of the year, 2 thirds of our U.

Speaker 11

S. Clients bought more property cat coverage across some additional $10,000,000,000 of limit, which is truly significant in the marketplace. We're also seeing clients reinsurers by more retrocession coverage with improved pricing, market dynamics, improved appetite by sellers, both rated and ILS vehicles in the market. And I think the last headline for you is there's caution in the property market. There's $50,000,000,000 plus of insured losses in the first half of the year.

Speaker 11

When you think about severe convective storms in the U. S. And Japan, Taiwanese earthquake, floods in Germany, the UAE, Baltimore Bridge collapse, Hurricane Barrel. I mean, we could be on track for another $100,000,000,000 a year of insured losses. So there's caution in the market around property and property cat.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Dean. So Mike, not a big shift from the Q1, but a modest evolving market more in favor of buyers. And so that obviously factors into the advice we give to our clients and help them navigate what's a world where again the cost of risk continues to escalate.

Speaker 8

Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 10

Yes, very quick follow-up. Thank you. Just not the nitpick, but if I'm just looking at total revenue growth and I guess ultimately EBITDA adjusted, I think divestitures and maybe a little FX is what I think us and maybe the consensus was off on a little bit. So I want to make sure there's nothing missing. It's still a net acquirer in terms of M and A, but is there chunky divestitures?

Speaker 10

Is that anything I should be thinking about in the very near term that in terms of that impact?

Speaker 1

No, no. I mean at Mercer, we sold 2 admin businesses, 1 in the U. S, 1 in the UK to Aptia. And the reason we sold them is they're relatively low growth and lower margin businesses. And again, on a relative basis, they were capital intensive.

Speaker 1

And so we think they have a better owner now. And so we feel good about that decision. Thank you, Mike. Andrew, next question please.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

Speaker 12

Well, good morning. I guess, I'd like to just go back to some comments you made in your prepared remarks. You mentioned Blueye. I was wondering if you could provide some more specific data around that. It's a data analytics business.

Speaker 12

Just provide some scope of how big it is inside the business because you called it out in your call.

Speaker 1

Yes. It's not a business. It's part of really how we advise our clients at Marsh. And so Blueye is kind of the brand, if you will, for our suite of analytics. And Martin, maybe you could just share some insight on the range of types tools that we use that help our clients think about how they manage and finance risk.

Speaker 6

Sure. So as you said, John, this is a suite of analytics tools that we use to help our clients across different product lines, assess what risks to retain, what risks they could transfer, the economic cost of that. We pay them across multiple lines to give them exposure and total cost of risk scenarios. We help them analyze claims and the analytics tools in that are able to help our clients who self insure a lot of losses to identify which losses they need to get out early and how to settle those. So it's a range of real time analytics built really.

Speaker 6

And it's one of the unique things about our business is that we have an enormous lake of data and we think that's one of the big modes that we have to support our business. And some of these analytics tools that we use, we call them generically Blueye. We deploy on clients that actually don't even buy insurance. They tend to be some of our biggest clients in the U. S.

Speaker 6

So we'll continue to invest in that. And as we announced in the call last year, we added to that with supply chain capability. And so it's the way clients expect to be engaged and that's the tool that we use.

Speaker 1

So we use these tools to help and it's really mostly upfront, but to help them understand our clients understand those risks, strategies to manage and mitigate those risks. We spend most of our time on these calls for good reasons talking about the financing of risk when we go to market. But it's an important part of our value proposition. It's another example of where we can bring scale benefits to the market, given the unique data set that we have and the range of proprietary analytics we use. And while it operates under a different brand, the same would be said for the way we approach our clients in the market at Guy Carpenter.

Speaker 1

Do you have a follow-up, Craig? I sure do. Thanks for

Speaker 12

the color on that. Just going to the operating cash flow and the free cash flow for the 6 months down a little bit. It looks like it's changes in working capital. Wondering if you could just provide some additional color on the operating cash flow for the quarter and the 6 month basis?

Speaker 1

Sure, Greg. Yes, it's going to be volatile from quarter to quarter, but Mark maybe you can

Speaker 2

Yes, Greg, thanks. We'll always caution against focusing too much on a quarter's results and that's certainly true when it comes to cash flows and free cash flow. They tend to be volatile not only quarter to quarter, but year to year because of timing of balance sheet items. As you put so when you look at the 6 months, we are seeing a decline. Of course, given the significant bonus payouts that we have in the Q1, you have a little bit of a denominator, small denominator issue.

Speaker 2

And so, you have to be cautious. But the 2 big factors just in the 1st 6 months are the higher comp payouts that we had in the Q1 and then receivables are up because of the growth in the business. But we've got a long track record of double digit growth in free cash flow that is stacked up well against our growth in earnings and that's what you'd expect in a capital light business like ours.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Mark and thanks Greg for the questions. Andrew, next question please.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with

Speaker 13

Thank you. Good morning. Just had a follow-up on an earlier question on margins. So I think last quarter you had said that you expected the margin to accelerate particularly in the second half of the year. It sounded like from the response this morning that maybe that's no longer the case.

Speaker 13

So just to be very clear, if we look at the 100 basis points or so of margin expansion in the first half of this year, would you expect that to be better in the second half or not? And I guess the second part of the question will be if there was a bit of a change, is it because the margin expansion in the second quarter was greater than you initially expected? Or are you expecting some softening relative to your guidance for the second half of the year?

Speaker 1

No. We expect margin expansion in the second half to be better than the first half. Sorry if we created any confusion earlier, but that's what we continue to expect. And maybe I can just share a little bit of color and just remind everybody too, margin is an outcome, right? This will be year 17 of 17th consecutive year of margin expansion.

Speaker 1

And so, we feel terrific about that. But margin is an outcome of the way we run the business. We manage investments and costs within the revenue growth of the business. It's not going to happen in every business in every single quarter, but that's the way we approach our business. And we're going to continue to make attractive investments to support medium to long term growth.

Speaker 1

But we see opportunities. As I mentioned in the past, we've got workflow and automation efforts inside of Marsh Mercer and Guy Carpenter. We're testing AI at scale. So that value creation is not a meaningful 2024 or probably 2025 event. But as technologies emerge, we'll continue to challenge ourselves to get better.

Speaker 1

But again, we do expect second half margin expansion to be better than first half. Do you

Speaker 8

have a follow-up?

Speaker 13

Thanks so much for the color and clarification. I asked a 2 part question, so I'll turn it back to you.

Speaker 1

Got it. Thank you. Andrew, next question please.

Operator

One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

Speaker 14

Great. Thanks. Good morning all.

Speaker 2

I guess to start, can you talk about

Speaker 14

how you're advising both insurance and reinsurance clients to think about their exposure to casualty lines following the overturning of the Chevron doctrine?

Speaker 1

Well, I'm not sure I see a direct line between that particular case and the overall environment. But what I would say to you is that what we've talked about on this call historically or I shouldn't say historically, but over the course of the last couple of years is just troubling signs of loss cost inflation, particularly here in the United States. And the amount of large or mega judgments and settlements is quite challenging. And so we spend a lot of time and Martin talked briefly about the suite of analytics we use. It's inside of that suite of analytics.

Speaker 1

We help our clients think about a range of outcomes, what type of limits they should consider buying, how they might benchmark anonymously against others in their industry as an example. But that's a those are all important inputs. And ultimately, our clients make decisions and judgments and some have the ability to finance more risk or choose to finance more risk on their own and others will look to finance risk on the balance sheets of insurance companies or in certain cases to capital markets as well. So I hope that's helpful, Mary.

Speaker 14

It is. Thank you. It's very good, big picture. This is more of a small picture issue, but when we look at, let's say, the 2 year stacked organic growth in Korea, that slowed dramatically from the Q1. I guess, you had 12 plus 1 at 13 in this quarter, 6 plus 2 is 8.

Speaker 14

Is your outlook for career based on the items or the issue that you identified earlier, is that slowing compared to maybe what you thought at the end of the Q1?

Speaker 1

No, I don't think there's a real change from the Q1. As Pat mentioned, some of the dynamics less active labor markets from a turnover point of view, lower comp and bend. So it's a we didn't have expectations of higher growth in that business during the course of 2024. And we haven't seen anything through 6 months that changes that outlook.

Speaker 14

Fantastic. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Andrew, time for maybe one more.

Operator

Certainly. And our final question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks for fitting me in. John, I want to go back to something you said last quarter, which is that Marsh accesses most of its E and S market solutions directly today. I'm curious how that split between the percentage of premiums placed directly in E and S versus through a 3rd party wholesaler has trended over recent years and how you think that might trend going forward?

Speaker 1

Yes. Again, just to be clear, we're not looking to build a 3rd party wholesale business. We want to bring the best solutions to our clients. The E and S markets moved quite a bit over the course of the last several years. That's really a reflection of the high risk environment that I've talked about where insurers have broadly speaking more freedom to change rate, to get off risk, to change price or to change terms and conditions as well.

Speaker 1

And so broadly speaking, we want to manage our clients' outcomes and experiences directly as possible and not outsource what's an important part of the value proposition. It's not to say wholesalers don't do a nice job for us, they do and we'll continue to access them where it makes sense. But we most of the majority of the wholesale premium, we actually access directly today or E and S markets, we do that directly today. But there's been more growth in intermediated wholesale premium over the course of the last couple of years. And so our efforts are to try to get as much access to market as we can.

Speaker 1

Do you have a follow-up, Robert?

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you. That's great color. Yes. And second question was just on sort of the different economics Guy Carpenter gets from cat bonds versus traditional reinsurance placement.

Speaker 8

If you can help us think about how much that record cat bond quarter contributed to organic growth?

Speaker 1

The economics can be different, of course, and they're different from treaty to treaty as well. We work with our insurance company clients. As we talked about when the market was particularly tight last year, While commission is a factor and growing price was a factor, in many respects really what we do with our large insurance company clients. It's big wholesale relationships where effectively we work on what amounts to a fee.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call back over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. In closing, I want to thank our colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support. Thank you all very much, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter.

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Earnings Conference Call
Marsh & McLennan Companies Q2 2024
00:00 / 00:00
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