Texas Capital Bancshares Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 18, 2024

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning all. I would like to welcome you all to the Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. Q2 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Breka, and I will be your moderator for today. All lines are on mute for the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Jocelyn Kukula at TCBI to begin. So Jocelyn, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for TCBI's Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Jocelyn Kokolka, Head of Investor Relations. Before we begin, please be aware this call will include forward looking statements that are based on our current expectations of future results or events. Forward looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. Our forward looking statements are as of the date of this call, and we do not assume any obligation to update or revise them.

Speaker 1

Statements made on this call should be considered together with the cautionary statements and other information contained in today's earnings release and our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks and subsequent filings with the SEC. We will refer to slides during today's presentation, which can be found along with the press release in the Investor Relations section of our website at texascapitalbank.com. Our speakers for the call today are Rob Holmes, President and CEO and Matt Scurlock, CFO. At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, our operator will open up a Q and A session. I'll now turn the call over to Rob for opening remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us today. We continue to make material progress, translating our now clearly differentiated strategy and operating model into outcomes consistent with our targeted results. The firm's industry leading liquidity and capital continue to be a competitive advantage as current and prospective clients seek a financial partner with both a product suite and balance sheet capable of supporting them through market and rate cycles. We finished the quarter with tangible common equity to tangible assets of 9.6%, ranked 1st amongst the largest banks in the country. A reserve ratio of 1.84% when excluding mortgage finance loans, which is top decile amongst our peer group and liquid assets of 24%.

Speaker 2

We continue to experience a stable momentum in our fee income areas of focus, which collectively increased 21% linked quarter and 11% year over year with treasury, wealth and investment banking delivering results consistent with expectations. Non interest income comprised 19% of total revenue for the quarter, which is the 2nd consecutive quarter inside our target range for fee income as a percentage of total revenue by full year 2025. The Investment Bank, now just 2 years from its launch, has an increasingly granular and diverse pipeline, which is contributing to more sustainable fee growth in this developing business. Investment Banking and Trading Income increased 33% quarter over quarter to a record of $30,700,000 Syndications, Capital Markets and Capital Solutions all delivered quarter over quarter revenue growth with Capital Markets delivering records in both fees and transaction volumes. We continue to hit milestones in the still maturing investment banking offering every quarter and are building a base of consistent and repeatable revenues that will be both a differentiator in the marketplace and a meaningful contributor to future earnings.

Speaker 2

Our treasury solutions platform, after nearly 3 years of deliberate and material investment, now provides both payment products and services in parity with the major money center banks and a client onboarding process that is faster and more efficient. Client and product onboarding continues on pace with expectations as year over year treasury product fees increased 14%, led by an 11% increase in gross payment revenue year to date. This is now 5 consecutive quarters with growth 3 times the industry. As our sustained focus increasingly earns us the right to become our clients' primary operating bank. The Private Wealth business is undergoing a full rebuild, which I have detailed in prior quarters, and we anticipate that it will become complete by year end.

Speaker 2

The expanded product suite and materially enhanced client journey should enable improved connectivity to the rest of our platform, allowing for significant future scale. Total AUM was flat quarter over quarter. However, managed investment assets were up 5%, an early sign of anticipated increase in client adoption and associated revenue growth resulting from initial components of our new offering coming online. Distinctive cash management capabilities enable the firm to retain and grow client funds during 2023, with those trends continuing through the first half of this year. Non interest bearing deposit accounts outside of mortgage finance remained flat at $3,300,000,000 for the quarter, while non brokered interest bearing deposits grew again this quarter and are now up 23% or $2,900,000,000 year over year.

Speaker 2

A foundational tenet of the financial resiliency we have established and will preserve is continued focus on tangible book value, which is up over 7% year over year, ending at $62.23 per share. This is an all time high for our firm. While we continue to bias capital towards supporting franchise accretive client segments where we are delivering our entire platform, we do recognize that at times of market dislocation, it can be prudent to utilize share repurchases as a tool for creating longer term shareholder value. During the quarter, we repurchased $50,000,000 or 1.8 percent of total shares outstanding at a weighted average price equal to 95% of the prior month tangible book value and 84% of tangible book value when adjusting for AOCI impacts. The firm remains fully committed to improving financial performance and believes that our position of unprecedented strength is enabling us to serve the best clients in our markets.

Speaker 2

We will drive attractive through cycle shareholder returns with both higher quality earnings and a lower cost of capital as we scale high value businesses through increased client adoption, improved client journeys and realized operational efficiencies, all objectives that we made significant headway on year to date. Now I'll turn it over to Matt to discuss the

Speaker 3

details of the financial results. Thanks, Rob, and good morning. Starting on Slide 5. Total revenue increased $11,000,000 or 4 percent for the quarter to $267,000,000 as a $1,600,000 increase in net interest income was augmented by $9,000,000 or 22 percent linked quarter increase in noninterest revenue. $50,400,000 of fee income delivered this quarter is the high watermark since we began the transformation in January of 2021.

Speaker 3

In our year to date, non interest revenue of $92,000,000 is 30% higher than full year 2020 when normalizing warehouse related fees and adjusting for businesses we've sold or wound down. Quarterly total adjusted non interest expense decreased 2% linked quarter coming off seasonally higher 1st quarter salaries and benefits related to annual payroll and compensation expenses. Taken together, linked quarter adjusted PPNR increased 24% to $79,000,000 recovering off seasonally lower Q1 results and generally in line with internal expectations. This quarter's provision expense of $20,000,000 resulted from charge offs associated with previously identified problem credits and a sustained conservative posture related to our economic outlook. Year to date provision expense as a percentage of LHI excluding mortgage finance is consistent with expectations at 47 basis points annualized.

Speaker 3

Net income to common was $37,400,000 an increase of 71% linked quarter, while adjusted net income to common was 37,700,000 dollars up 27% linked quarter. The tax rate for the quarter increased 3.7%, resulting in a $2,200,000 reduction in net income to common, primarily due to the timing of booking certain discrete items this quarter. We still expect the full year blended tax rate to remain around 25%. Our balance sheet metrics continue to be exceptionally strong with period end cash balances of 10% to total assets and cash and securities of 24%, both trending in line with year end targeted ratios. Ending period gross LHI balances increased by approximately $950,000,000 or 5% linked quarter, driven predominantly by expected growth in the mortgage finance business of seasonal troughs and modest increases in C and I loans.

Speaker 3

Total deposits declined 1% during the quarter as continued increases in client interest bearing accounts were offset by proactive reductions of our highest cost deposits in the mortgage finance and brokered categories. Total gross LHI excluding mortgage finance was relatively flat linked quarter as higher interest rates and lingering economic concerns suppressed previously anticipated client and prospect needs for bank credit. After repositioning over $1,000,000,000 of funded loans during the last six quarters, our multiyear process of recycling capital into a client base that benefits from our broadening platform available product solutions has slowed significantly. Although we do continue to identify select opportunities each quarter as legacy positions reach maturity. While our platform breadth is enabling new client acquisition at a pace consistent with internal expectations, with year to date new relationships onboarded now over 65% of new relationships onboarded for full year 2023.

Speaker 3

Lower near term system wide demand for bank credit is limiting immediate earning asset expansion. We do still expect the sustained pace of new client acquisition to result in modest balance sheet and loan growth this year, although at a potentially slower pace than contemplated in our original guidance. Commercial Real Estate period end balances decreased $133,000,000 or 2% in the quarter as payoff rates increased from the depressed levels in the prior period. The portfolio remains weighted to multifamily, which comprises $2,400,000,000 42 percent of outstanding balances, reflecting both our deep experience in the space and observed performance through credit and interest rate cycles. After a difficult 4th and 1st quarter for the mortgage space, where seasonal weakness was exacerbated by persistent rate pressure, Average mortgage finance loans increased $840,000,000 or 24 percent in the quarter to $4,400,000,000 reflective of increased home buying in the spring summer months.

Speaker 3

Our expectation remains that the industry will remain historically challenged in the near term. Ambuity on the forward rate outlook is causing a dispersion in origination volume estimates from professional forecasters, with some reputable sources still calling for an up to 15% increase in annual origination volume. Given ongoing rate volatility, we remain more cautious and reaffirm reduced full year expectations shared on the Q1 call for full year increases in average warehouse volumes of 10%, down from 15% at the beginning of the year. Ending period deposit balances decreased 1% quarter over quarter as sustained success in attracting quality funding associated with our core offerings enabled the firm to proactively manage down select higher cost funding sources, both in mortgage finance and in broker deposits, which are now at a 10 year low. PeriodM mortgage finance on interest bearing deposit balances decreased $473,000,000 quarter over quarter, predominantly driven by the selective reduction of over $500,000,000 of the highest deposits where we were unable to earn additional business necessary to generate an appropriate return on capital.

Speaker 3

Average mortgage finance deposits were 120% of average mortgage finance loans, a decline quarter over quarter but in line with our guidance. As the deposit reduction now more appropriately matches funding levels to reduced mortgage client credit needs resulting from the system wide contraction and mortgage origination volumes. We expect the ratio of average mortgage finance deposits to average mortgage finance loans to remain relatively flat in the Q3 as the predictable growth in client deposits should match that of anticipated warehouse fundings. As detailed in previous calls, select mortgage finance deposits feature relationship pricing credits, which are applied to both clients mortgage finance and commercial loans based on each loan type's contribution to interest income during the quarter. Attribution of interest credits are expected to follow a similar distribution for the duration of the year, with approximately 60% associated with mortgage finance and 40% aligned to commercial loans to mortgage finance clients.

Speaker 3

Ending in average period non interest bearing deposits excluding mortgage finance stayed flat in the quarter as the pace of clients shifting excess balances to interest bearing deposits or to other cash management options on our platform has slowed significantly. Ending period non interest bearing deposits excluding mortgage finance remained 14% of total deposits, and our expectation is that this percentage remains relatively stable in the near term. Broker deposits declined $78,000,000 during the quarter as growth in client focused deposits consistent with our long term strategy remain sufficient to satisfy desired near term balance sheet demands. Over the Q3, dollars 330,000,000 will mature with an average rate of 5.3 percent and we do anticipate replacing a portion of these deposits. Our modeled earnings at risk was relatively consistently quarter due to proactive measures taken over the last 2 years, which are resulting in a more neutral posture at this stage of the rate cycle.

Speaker 3

It is important to note these are measures of net interest income sensitivity and do not include inevitable rate driven changes in loan volumes or fee based income. We continue to reinvest cash flows into the securities portfolio and purchased nearly $100,000,000 in agency backed securities during the quarter with an average coupon of 6%. We do anticipate continued reinvestment over the duration of the year, which will improve securities yield while maintaining rate positioning. Net interest margin declined 2 basis points this quarter and net interest income increased modestly to 216,600,000 The impacts of balance sheet repositioning into higher earning assets associated with our long term strategy, coupled with continued momentum Rob described in our fee generating businesses, should continue over the next few quarters as we look to resume year over year quarterly PPNR growth in the Q4 of this year. Total adjusted non interest expenses decreased 2% linked quarter as Q2 salaries and benefits expense decreased $9,900,000 from a seasonally higher Q1.

Speaker 3

The realization of structural efficiencies associated with our go forward operating model are improving near term financial performance, while also enabling continued specific investments to drive long term capabilities. As industry wide asset quality normalization continues, so does our multiyear posture of prudently building the reserve to effectively address communicated legacy credits and buffer against potential impact of an uncertain economic outlook. The total allowance for credit loss including off balance sheet reserves increased $8,000,000 on a linked quarter basis to $313,000,000 up $31,000,000 year over year, which when excluding mortgage finance is 1.84% of total LHI, a high since the adoption of CECL in 2020. Criticized loans stayed flat at $860,000,000 and declined to 3.9 percent of total LHI as modest increases in special mention were offset by resolutions and substandard including of non accrual loans. The composition of criticized loans remains weighted towards well structured commercial real estate loans supported by strong sponsors plus commercial clients with dependencies on consumer discretionary income.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we recognized net charge offs $12,000,000 or 0.23 percent of average LHI. The charge offs were comprised of a small number of commercial credits and the resolution of a single hospitality loan. Our identified legacy problem credits have now been reduced to approximately $40,000,000 down from $200,000,000 at the end of 2020. Consistent with prior quarters, capital levels remain at or near the top of the industry. Total regulatory capital remains exceptionally strong relative to both the peer group and our internally assessed risk profile.

Speaker 3

CET1 finished the quarter at 11.62%, a 76 basis point decrease from prior quarter related to the maturity of the credit linked note, had a 46 basis point impact, quarterly loan growth and execution under the share repurchase authorization. Tangible common equity tangible assets finished at 9.6 3%, which ranks 1st amongst the largest banks in the country. We continue to deploy 2nd quarter, we purchased approximately 852,000 shares or 1.8 percent of prior quarter shares outstanding for a total of $50,000,000 at a weighted average price of $58.14 per share or 95% of prior month tangible book value per share. Our guidance accounts for the market based forward rate curve, which now assumes Fed funds of 5.25 percent exiting the year. For the full year, we are modestly reducing our revenue guidance and now anticipate low to mid single digit growth as moderated expectations for current year balance sheet expansion is only partially offset by continued momentum in our fee income areas of focus.

Speaker 3

Despite the near term impacts, slowing capital recycling efforts through the year, coupled with sustained new client acquisition, will result in resumption of risk appropriate loan growth when clients' appetite for bank credit improves. Our intent to move towards an 11% CET1 at year end remains intact, with our consistent capital priorities focused on growing the core business, improving future earnings generation and increasing tangible book value per share. Given our risk weighted asset heavy commercial orientation, effectively deploying excess regulatory capital should still result in sector leading tangible common equity levels. Multiyear investments in infrastructure, data and process improvement continue yielding expected operating and financial efficiencies, enabling targeted additional investment in talent and capabilities, while limiting structural increases in non interest expense. The increase in guidance to low to mid single digits contemplates elevated levels of revenue generation from higher efficiency ratio sources alongside continued spend associated with resolution of select existing problem credits.

Speaker 3

We expect resumption of quarterly increases in year over year PPNR growth to begin in Q4 2024, accelerating as we enter 2025. Finally, we maintain a conservative outlook and reiterate our annual provision expense guidance at 50 basis points of LHI excluding mortgage finance. Operator, we'd now like to open up the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Matt. We will now begin the question and answer session. We have the first question on the phone lines from Ben Gurlinger with Citi. You may proceed.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning everyone. Good morning, Ben. I know you guys gave the guidance just a second ago here and the balance sheet sensitivity obviously moves quarter to quarter. You're looking at just strictly on a static basis, largely due to the more new warehouse differential. But the market were to kind of see a cut a quarter, like 3Q, 4Q and then 1, 2 early next year.

Speaker 4

Can you I know it's not an official guidance. Can you just talk about maybe the potential impacts that you would see on either left and right side of the balance sheet considering you guys cut out some of the higher cost deposits? I'm just trying to think about repricing across both sides.

Speaker 3

Yes, Ben. This is Matt. Happy to take that question. We've been pretty deliberate in getting to a position of relative neutrality in this shock scenario as rates are starting to flatten out at least on the short side. So we think that the business model and balance sheet transformation over the last few years gives us the ability to drive improved revenue really across different rate environments.

Speaker 3

So, main difference, obviously, in this quarter's guidance relative to guidance beginning of the year has been the reduction in anticipated rate cuts, which for us is mostly shown up in reduction in these for clients to put on big debt. So we've got 25 basis points sitting over the remainder of the year. If you see that accelerate a bit, we've got hedge profile that picks up about $7,500,000 of NII for every 25 basis points of cuts. That's actually essentially winding down over the duration of next year. You'll see about $500,000,000 come off over the first half of the year, then about another $1,500,000,000 in the 3rd Q4.

Speaker 3

So you do see some level of some removal of the downside rate protection, but so for Forage, you're about 90 basis points in excess of receipt fixed. And then obviously, the mortgage finance portfolio quite sensitive to reductions in interest rates. We anticipate that you'll see that flex up to about $4,800,000,000 on average in the 3rd Q4, which gets you to about a 10% increase full year. And then there's associated fees that would come from both warehouse volume primarily in sales and trading as well as expansion of capital markets income if you see a declining rate environment.

Speaker 4

Okay. That's helpful. And I know you guys from a capital perspective like to have excess capital. I mean it makes a lot of sense for new client wins especially with an investment banking business. But now with shares notably above tangible, you guys have rid the rally that the rest of the bank space has seen.

Speaker 4

Is it fair to assume that share repurchases are pretty limited here considering above tangible or can we think of the same pace given the lack of loan growth as of late? Yes.

Speaker 3

I think the framework that we use to evaluate marginal capital deployment has been pretty well described at this point. And you're exactly right. Year to date capital in excess of near term balance sheet has been deployed into about $80,000,000 of buybacks, which the past couple of years has been pretty important ingredient for us to drive book value in ways other than just do the income statement. You're exactly right that the current stock price makes that a less appealing option, which means it moved to other options on our capital menu. One example of that this quarter, Ben, was expiration of the CRT, where we just simply didn't need additional risk weighted asset benefit and instead are prioritizing improved earnings and associated tangible capital generation.

Speaker 3

That move is pretty consistent with our continued message around emphasizing tangible common equity over regulatory capital. And then you're also right on potential future loan growth. I mean, the platform is built to serve all the financial needs of our clients. We've said repeatedly that it's not one set of clients for treasury and one set of clients for the investment bank and another set of clients for the commercial bank. We generally compete and win because once the client comes here, they never have to leave.

Speaker 3

And eventually, that does mean that clients are going to need the balance sheet and levels that are greater than today and we want to make sure that we have that capital available for them.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Stephen Scouten with Piper Sandler. You may proceed.

Speaker 4

Yes, good morning. Appreciate it. So investment banking remains extremely strong and growing. I know it's kind of 2% to 10% contribution rate that you guys had laid out at one point in time. And then do you think we go appreciably through that contribution rate now that we're already to this 10.3% level year to date?

Speaker 4

Or kind of how should we think about Investment Banking contribution as we continue to move forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. I'm pleased to call out another record quarter in Investment Banking. I'd note that Rob mentioned this in his opening comments, the fee contribution was significantly more granular and broad than other record quarters, namely the second, Q3 of last year. Capital Markets was the main contributor this quarter, record level of fees, record level of transactions. We continue to compete and win against both Money Center and pure play investment banks despite 85% of industry volumes in Capital Markets being refi, which is going to disproportionately favor the incumbent.

Speaker 3

I'd say the pipeline right now, Steve, is elevated, including those transactions that are mandated. And while that does continue to expand and certainly our expectations for long term performance for the business probably also continue to increase, we'd still suggest modeling this as next modeling next quarter's fees rather is using a trailing 4 quarter average. I mean, it's just still brand new business only 2 years in. And while I think at this point, unquestionably, the trend is going to be for it to be an increasing contributor to Texas Capital Bank, for now I try to temper expectations and plug in somewhere in the mid-20s for the next couple of quarters.

Speaker 4

Got it. And just as I think about the 2025 targets, obviously, still a pretty big gap between year to date and that kind of 110% ROA. And it feels like for me, like the difficulty is the delta between what we can see in the financial results to date versus the sentiment of progress that you all communicate. So where is the lever there that maybe we can't see yet that would create this large magnitude shift in terms of financial results?

Speaker 3

Yes. Do you want any color there?

Speaker 4

Or do we have to re about those targets at this point?

Speaker 3

No. We'll answer the first question. No need to readjust the targets at this point. So you're right. We see a ton of underlying momentum in the business.

Speaker 3

And the elements required for improved returns are the same elements that we called out in 2021. So we are continuing to gain relevance with clients and prospects at a pace necessary to deliver against our fee income targets. We think that at this point, we've proven clear ability to leverage tech investments and process improvements to drive real structural efficiency, which is foundational for future scale. And then we're highly consistent with market facing posture and do so with a pretty differentiated platform. So over time, that's going to result in balance sheet growth when folks again start to look to bank credit as a vehicle to expand their business.

Speaker 3

We still think you get to the back end of the year and there would be some balance sheet expansion, particularly supported by a decrease in interest rates, which then sets you up for a pretty nice trajectory heading into 2025. And that's generally why we think those results are still obtainable even in what is certainly a challenging operating environment.

Speaker 4

Got it. So kind of I guess it continues to just be execution on

Speaker 5

what you've built in just

Speaker 3

a little bit of time for that to play out? Yes. I think the biggest difference halfway through the year relative to our expectations, Steve, has really just been client's appetite for bank credit. So average loan balances for us excluding mortgage finance, they're up $600,000,000 year to date or about 8% annualized. But client's appetite is much less than assumed in the January call, again likely due to elevated interest rates.

Speaker 3

So we continue to think we're going to get pickup in the 3rd Q4. But to date, clients onboarding has showed up elsewhere in the financials, which is making us making loan growth in excess of the 8% that we achieved last year a bit more challenging. That's really been the main difference if we think about guidance laid out at the beginning of the year relative to current state. So if you see that pick up back into the year, the trajectory is potentially not as steep, but still quite steep as you move into an important 2025.

Speaker 4

Great. Really helpful. Thanks for all the color.

Operator

Thank you, Stephen. We now have Matt Oloney with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I want to ask about operating expenses and it sounds like the 2Q expense level was in line with the internal expectations, but you did increase the outlook for expenses for the full year. Any more color on kind of what the driver of the updated outlook there?

Speaker 3

Yes, you got it, Matt. The expense priorities are essentially unchanged. So the slight move higher in guidance from low single digits to mid single digits is really the result of potentially higher in salary benefits expense that is associated with onboarded talent, primarily in the broker dealer and then improved anticipated revenue from fee based sources, which as you know, generally are going to have a slightly higher efficiency ratio. So overall, salaries and benefits should still be in that mid single digit range, but does have potential to move to the higher end. All other expenses, as you know, Matt, we've generally tagged in previous calls, is about $70,000,000 a quarter, are mostly evolving as anticipated.

Speaker 3

So the heaviest area growth is tech and communications expense, which reflects the previously discussed ramp of our project portfolio to target persistent funding levels this year. But the one area that's not coming down quite as fast as anticipated is legal, where ongoing resolution of a few legacy credits should the spend around current levels for the next few quarters. So I think about for the remainder of the year, Matt, total expenses not associated with salaries and benefits potentially coming in right above that $70,000,000 that we gave you in January April.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful, Matt. Appreciate the commentary there. And then I guess switching gears on the deposit side. I think you mentioned you took some steps to exit higher cost deposits late in the quarter.

Speaker 6

Just curious, is this a function of just needing less funding given the slower loan growth? Or is there something other drivers beyond that? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. We talked a bit about that on the last call, Matt. So I'd say multi quarter themes really continued in the deposit base this period. Rob mentioned in the opening comments that we once again saw material increases in clients' interest bearing deposit balances. So non brokered, up $415,000,000 in the quarter, 2% linked quarter.

Speaker 3

That's $2,900,000,000 23 percent year over year. So the growth in client deposits is driving a reduction in broker deposits now down to historically low levels. And then we've got a lot of stability in commercial non interest bearing deposits, which have sat around this $3,400,000,000 average in the last few quarters. So you're right that we did begin this quarter to selectively reduce some of our very highest cost deposits, which happened to reside in mortgage finance, where we were unable to gain sufficient relevancy with that client to earn an adequate return. That said Matt, and you know this from having covered us for a long time, you will this year just like every year start to see those mortgage finance deposits move seasonally higher in the 3rd Q4.

Speaker 3

Our anticipated quarterly averages are around 5,800,000,000 dollars and that's primarily just related to industry volumes increases and then increases in the course accounts building prior to late year tax remittances. So the deposit flows in the business are actually a bit more predictable than the loan balances. So rate driven loan growth in warehouse is really going to be the key in the back end of the year to maintaining this 120% or so self funding ratio that we referenced in our remarks, which obviously has an impact on the margin.

Speaker 4

Okay. Makes sense. Thank you.

Speaker 3

You bet.

Operator

Thank you, Matt. We now have Woody Lay with KBW.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning. I wanted to

Speaker 5

start on the 2024 revenue guide. So the updated range implies a pretty large range over the back half of the year. Could you just go through the puts and the takes behind coming in at the high end of the range versus the low end? It sounds like it comes down to loan growth in the back half of the year.

Speaker 3

I think that's a fair assessment. We have a lot of confidence in the growth in the fee income base. So we've got multi quarter tracker at this point. I think it's fair to assume a similar growth rate for the duration of the year on treasury product fees. We're pleased with obviously results and momentum in the investment bank.

Speaker 3

So I think the revenue guide does hinge a bit on clients' appetite for bank credit. I mean that is obviously a near term guide is important, 2024 results are important, Woody. But the reality of whether Texas Capital can over time deliver returns in excess of our cost is much more dependent on us just onboarding clients at a pace consistent with plan. We referenced in the comments that we're onboarding clients at a record pace right now. Just the products and services that they're using do not require the balance sheet, which is why we've been as aggressive as we have been on the buyback, trying to build tangible book value in ways other than just simply through net interest income.

Speaker 3

But pulling it back to 2020 4, I really do. I think it's back end of the year loan growth that will be the driver of where we come in within the revenue range.

Speaker 2

I just want to point out, I think it's important that in 2021, we said that loan growth was going to be a byproduct or an outcome. We weren't going to target loan growth. We're targeting onboarding the right clients and the allocation of capital being very disciplined. And so we could get loan growth if we want loan growth for loan growth. That's not consistent with the strategy.

Speaker 2

That's what we said since day 1. So we're onboarding great clients in every one of our markets segments and it will be up to them on whether or not or when we have loan growth.

Speaker 3

Woody, we noted in the comments as well that the pace of capital recycling has slowed and we still exited close to $250,000,000 of mid single digit returns this quarter, including a $50,000,000 sale of a portion of a loan portfolio at par. So we are still seeing some opportunities to pull capital out of low return relationships where we just haven't been able to earn the necessary portions of the wallet to deem it a relevant and worthwhile use of capital and either return it to shareholders via immediately accretive buybacks and or use it to build best in class tangible common equity ratios, which will over time be deployed into the capital needs that clients on the balance sheet are going to have.

Speaker 5

All right. That's really helpful color there. Thanks. Maybe lastly shifting to credit. I mean it was really good to see criticized loans flat quarter over quarter.

Speaker 5

Were there any material inflows and outflows there? Or were the ratings pretty consistent on a linked quarter basis?

Speaker 3

Yes. We did observe stability both in the number of downgrades to special mention and the move of credits from special mention into substandard. We also saw a pickup in velocity both of pay downs, upgrades and then certainly payoffs including through the sale of certain non accrual loans, which was also down nicely linked quarter and is relatively flat year over year. I think another important thing to call out is just our approach to commercial real estate underwriting and monitoring, which relies really heavily on the more punitive of current or stress submarket level information to assess current cash flow and the ability of that cash flow to effectively meet debt service coverage thresholds. We believe that's driven the appropriate grade migration cycle today.

Speaker 3

The other thing we've called out before has been commercial loans that are dependent on consumer discretionary income is an area that we are focused on. We did see some structural stabilization in that business across those credits this quarter as operators starting to make some tactical adjustments to deliver improvements in their models and improvements in margin, but it's definitely going to be an area that we continue to watch. I'd say the last thing that I'd point out on credit is we've been our term would be aggressively conservative since Rob got here. And to date, we've generally expressed that philosophy through timely changes and the risk ratings and then appropriately waiting, in our view, downside scenarios, both in underwriting and in the reserve calculation. So we said on that last call that our risk outlook hadn't changed and although we're certainly happy with the credit trends, I think that sentiment still holds.

Speaker 3

We need additional clarity on either the forward economic outlook or a sustained reduction in criticized loans for us to adjust our full year look on provision as a percentage of total LHI.

Speaker 5

Yes, got it. All right. Thanks for taking my questions. You bet.

Operator

Thank you, Woody. And we have the next questioner, Jon Arfstrom with RBC. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Mark. Can you guys talk

Speaker 7

a little bit hey, good morning. Can you talk a little bit more about some of the new client onboarding numbers, a little bit in the kind of core banking relationships and treasury. Can you just help us understand the momentum a little bit more?

Speaker 2

Sure. So look, we had a record year in 2022. We then had another record year in 2023. And for the first half of this year, we're on pace to beat internal expectations and stack a third record year of client onboarding. I think more importantly that it's broad across the entirety of the platform.

Speaker 2

So it's business banking, it's middle of market banking, it's corporate banking, it's every sub segment within the corporate bank. So all the businesses are maturing well across the platform in C and I and even Private Wealth. And I think that obviously manifests itself in the clients doing a lot of things with us through the increase in investment with a record quarter investment banking fees, very diverse granular broad fees compared to other really high quarters. Pipeline is really strong, of high quality with high quality clients. Treasury Management outperforming the industry on a consistent basis.

Speaker 2

Pipeline is very strong, momentum heading into the back half of the year. I think half of that growth is coming from expansion of business with clients on the platform and half of that growth is coming through ramp with new clients coming to the platform, which as you know can take anywhere from a year to 1.5 years to fully ramp a really good high quality large treasury client. So the receptivity of the strategy is really strong. And I just got to say it again, the way to tangibly lever the excess capital on the balance sheet is in conversations with CEOs and Boards of companies that want a solution like ours that needed to be safe and with a high quality financial institution. So we're really encouraged by the receptivity.

Speaker 2

Its momentum is building and I think it's manifested itself in the numbers.

Speaker 7

Okay. So we're seeing it in your investment banking. We're seeing it in some of the treasury business, but not yet in loan demand. And I understand your point of view on that, Rob. But Matt, you mentioned rates is maybe a sticking point.

Speaker 7

What are the some of the other sticking points you hear from potential borrowers? And could a couple of rate cuts spur a little bit better core loan demand for you?

Speaker 2

Can I let me just grab that just real quick then back and answer

Speaker 4

it however he wants? But I think

Speaker 2

it's more being a CEO myself, I think it's more sentiment than rate. I think rate certainly goes into it because the return has to be higher obviously. But the marginal investment is probably deferred. We're in an election year. There's a lot going on.

Speaker 2

The economy is uncertain. I just think it's more sentiment. We can argue that. And I'm not we'll see who's right, but I think it's more sentiment than rate. Because if there's a good marginal product, it would hurdle.

Speaker 2

So I don't know. I think it's more sentiment. And so that will come with the as the economy starts to recover.

Speaker 4

Okay. Matt, you have a different view?

Speaker 7

No? Okay. Matt, just one quick one on Capital Markets. Do you feel like there's a lower band on your capital markets revenues? I'm looking at the Q4 of 2023 that number compared to what you've done recently.

Speaker 7

I know your business has changed a lot in the last two quarters, but is there a new floor or a new lower band in your mind? Thanks.

Speaker 3

We really like the trailing 4th quarter for now, John. I mean, it's a 2 year old business. So you see material improvements every single quarter and just the confidence in go to market, our ability to successfully execute our external calls, which are enabling us to go win more business. So it's just building. It's such a rapid clip, but it's so new that I think trailing 4 quarters is the right way to go for now.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We currently have the questions registered. So I would like to hand it back to Rob Holmes for some closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks for your interest in the firm. Have a great quarter.

Operator

Thank you all for joining. That does conclude the Texas Capital Bancshares Inc. Q2 2024 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect your line and please enjoy the rest of your day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Texas Capital Bancshares Q2 2024
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