Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 26, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Phillips Edison and Company's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Kimberly Green, Head of Investor Relations. Kimberly, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. I'm joined on this call by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Edison President, Bob Myers and Chief Financial Officer, John Caulfield. Once we conclude our prepared remarks, we will open the call to Q and A. After today's call, an archived version will be published on our website. As a reminder, today's discussion may contain forward looking statements about the company's view of future business and financial performance, including forward earnings guidance and future market conditions.

Speaker 1

These are based on management's current beliefs and expectations and are subject to various risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, specifically in our most recent Form 10 ks and 10 Q. And our discussion today will reference certain non GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of these measures and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings press release and supplemental information packet, which have been posted on our website. Please note that we have also posted a presentation with additional information. Our caution on forward looking statements also applies to these materials.

Speaker 1

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jeff Edison, our Chief Executive Officer. Jeff?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kim, and thank you everyone for joining us today. The PECO team continued to deliver solid growth in the quarter. The ongoing strength of our operating performance is attributable to our differentiated and focused strategy of owning right sized grocery anchored neighborhood shopping centers anchored by the number 1 or 2 grocer by sales in the market. Our strategy has yielded outstanding results. Over 30 years, we built a fully integrated operating platform and become one of the nation's largest owners and operators of grocer anchored shopping centers.

Speaker 2

Our management team owns 8% of the company. We have meaningful skin in the game and are committed to driving long term shareholder value. Our operational and investment decisions continue to position PECO for growth. Format drives results and not all spaces create equal. 97% of our shopping centers are anchored by high foot traffic producing grocery stores, which is the highest concentration in the sector.

Speaker 2

We have over 30 years experience merchandising these centers around the grocer and 70% of our rents come from Nabors offering necessity based goods and services. This compares to the peer average of 54%. Our strategy and team have produced market leading results over time. Let me share a few examples. At 98% leased, Pico has the highest occupancy among our peers.

Speaker 2

During the 2nd quarter, PECO's in line leased occupancy increased 30 basis points sequentially to a record high 95.1%. Pico's comparable leasing spreads and renewal rent spreads are among the highest in the sector. Pico has delivered track record of outperformance in same center NOI growth. Since the IPO, we have continued to deliver same center NOI growth above 3%, while outperforming the peer average. We have the highest volume of acquisitions compared to our peers when excluding company M and A activity.

Speaker 2

This ensures that each and every asset we buy is PICO quality. In addition, we are among the lowest levered shopping center REITs. We have added some new slides to our investor presentation, which highlight PECO's sector leading performance. Be sure to take a look. The PECO team is focused on maintaining our market leading position.

Speaker 2

We believe PECO's position will drive solid FFO per share growth going forward. We remain committed to successfully executing our growth strategy to deliver long term value to our shareholders. Our high quality portfolio anchored by top grocers in favorable suburban markets provides a long term steady earnings growth profile. PECO is positioned to continue to grow and excel as we look ahead. We believe we will provide our investors more alpha with less beta given our focused and differentiated strategy.

Speaker 2

During the Q2, we acquired 2 shopping centers and 1 land parcel for a total of $60,000,000 Subsequent to quarter end, we acquired 1 property and 1 land parcel for $11,000,000 We continue to find attractive acquisition opportunities. Activity in the Q3 remains strong. Given the current environment, we are reaffirming our guidance $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 of net acquisitions for the year. We have the capabilities and leverage capacity to acquire more if attractive opportunities materialize. We continue to target an unlevered IRR of over 9% for our acquisitions.

Speaker 2

If we look at everything we have acquired over the past 3 years, we are currently exceeding our underwritten returns by approximately 130 basis points. We will maintain our disciplined approach and focus on accretively growing our portfolio. We're hopeful that volumes will continue to increase throughout the remainder of the year. Earlier this week, we announced the acquisition of DuPair Corners, a grocery anchored shopping center in a St. Louis, Missouri suburb.

Speaker 2

The acquisition was made through a new joint venture with Cohen and Steers. The joint venture is owned 80% by Cohen and Steers and 20% by PECO. The venture has committed equity of $300,000,000 with a total investment target between $600,000,000 $700,000,000 The venture will focus on acquiring Open Air, grocery anchored shopping centers and will leverage PECO's deep shopping center expertise. We are pleased to partner with Cohen and Steers on this venture and its first acquisition. This increases PECO's access to growth capital.

Speaker 2

It also increases the acquisition universe available to us. Stabilized yield on investment is a primary focus of this fund. This venture brings together 1 of the best real estate fund investors and one of the best operators in the country. We are excited about this partnership. We believe this venture will generate attractive returns for both partners.

Speaker 2

Now moving to the Kroger Albertsons merger. Kroger recently disclosed a list of locations on its proposed sale of assets to CNS Wholesale Grocers. PECO has 2 Kroger locations and 10 Albertsons locations included in the proposal. Importantly, Kroger's divestiture plan continues to ensure no stores will close as a result of the merger. These 12 stores are well performing locations with average sales per square foot of $6.30 and an average health ratio of 2.1%.

Speaker 2

Sales growth from 2019 has averaged 34%. The majority of these locations are anchored by the number 1 or 2 grocer by sales in their respective markets. Notably, these stores have been grocery store locations serving their communities for 25 years on average. These stores represent approximately 1% of PECO's ABR. CNS has been operating for over 100 years.

Speaker 2

They are one of the biggest wholesale operators with demonstrated experience in retail operations. In addition, it was recently announced that Albertson's Chief Operating Officer would move to CNS to become President and CEO of its retail business if the merger closes. While the market still gives the merger a low probability of occurring, should it close, we believe the impact on PECO is a net positive for our centers and to the overall value of our portfolio. Our remaining 20 Albertsons stores would be operated by Kroger, which reinvest regularly in their stores and produces higher sales volumes on average. If the merger does not occur, our Albertsons anchored centers will continue the strong performance that they have produced to date.

Speaker 2

With that, I will now turn it over to Bob to provide more color on the operating environment. Bob?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had another quarter of strong operating results and leasing momentum. We continue to see high retailer demand with no current signs of slowing down. Pico's leasing team continues to convert retailer demand into high occupancy with higher rents at our centers.

Speaker 3

Portfolio occupancy remained high and ended the quarter at 97.5 percent leased, a sequential increase of 30 basis points. Anchor occupancy of 98.8 percent increased 40 basis points sequentially as we executed 8 anchor leases, including Planet Fitness, Ace Hardware, Dollar Tree and Kula Sport Performance. In line occupancy ended the quarter a record high of 95.1%. New neighbors added in the 2nd quarter included quick service restaurants such as Mountain Mike's Pizza, Dave's Hot Chicken, Wingstop and Chipotle along with several medtail uses, health and beauty retailers and other necessity based goods and services. In terms of new lease activity, we continue to have success in driving higher rents.

Speaker 3

Comparable new rent spreads for the 2nd quarter were 34.4%. Our in line new rent spreads remained strong at 31.9% in the quarter, which compares to our trailing 12 month average of 29 percent. We continue to capitalize on strong renewal demand and are making the most of the opportunity to improve lease language at renewal and drive rents higher. In the Q2, we achieved a 20.5% increase in comparable renewal rent spreads. Our in line renewal spreads remained high at 19.7% in the 2nd quarter, which compares to our trailing 12 month average of 18.5%.

Speaker 3

These increases in spreads reflect the continued strength of the leasing and retention environment. We expect new and renewal spreads to continue to be strong throughout the balance of this year and into the foreseeable future. Our neighbor retention remained high at 89%, while growing rents at attractive rates. Our in line retention rate remains strong at 80 historical 5 year average of 78%. Higher retention means less downtime and lower TI spend.

Speaker 3

In the Q2, we spent only $0.30 per square foot on TI for renewals. We also remain success with driving higher contractual rent increases. Our new and renewal in line leases executed in the 2nd quarter had average annual contractual rent bumps of 2% 3%, respectively, another important contributor to our long term growth. The leasing spreads that we are achieving and the strength of our leasing pipeline are clear evidence of the continued high demand for space in our grocery anchored shopping centers. PECO's pricing power is a reflection of the strength of our focused strategy and the quality of our portfolio.

Speaker 3

Today, we believe the consumer remains resilient. Our grocers continue to drive strong reoccurring foot traffic to our centers. Consumers continue to visit grocery stores 1.6 times per week. There are approximately 33,000 average total trips per week to each PECO Center. This equates to nearly 500,000,000 total trips to PECO Centers in the last 12 months.

Speaker 3

Strong foot traffic benefits in line neighbor sales and enhances our ability to drive rents higher. PECO's 3 mile trade area demographics include an average population of 67,000 people and an average median household income of 87,000, dollars which is 12% higher than the U. S. Median. These demographics are in line with the store demographics of Kroger and Publix, which are PECO's top two neighbors.

Speaker 3

Our centers are situated in trade areas where our top grocers are profitable and our neighbors are successful. According to Placer AI, the majority of visits to PECO Centers are from customers in the middle or upper class. Our markets have less poverty, higher household incomes and better expected population growth than the national averages. Unemployment in PICO markets is also 20% lower than the national average at 3.2%. PECO continues to benefit from a number of positive macroeconomic trends that create strong tailwinds and drive robust neighbor demand.

Speaker 3

These trends include a resilient consumer, hybrid work, migration to the Sunbelt, population shifts that favor suburban neighborhoods and the importance of physical locations and last mile delivery. Leaching demand remained at historically high levels for our in line spaces as these macro tailwinds have retailers more focused on having stores in our centers. The impact of these demand factors is further amplified due to limited new supply over the last 10 years and going forward given that current economic returns do not justify new construction of shopping centers. In addition to our strong rental growth trends, we continue to expand our pipeline of ground up outparcel development and repositioning projects. We continue to expect to invest $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 annually in ground up development and repositioning opportunities with weighted average cash on cash yields between 9% and 12%.

Speaker 3

This activity remains a great use of free cash flow produces attractive returns with less risk. Our team continues to stay focused on growing this pipeline as the returns are accretive to the portfolio. As we shared during our December Investor Day, Pico is leveraging artificial intelligence to creatively and efficiently improve how we operate our business. Pico was recently honored at the 2024 Realcom Conference with the Digital Innovation Award, known as the Digi Awards, an inaugural award was given for best use of AI and Pico won top honors from a field of finalists. This is Pico's 3rd Digi award.

Speaker 3

Pico continues to pioneer AI advancements that foster cross functional collaboration. We are cultivating a culture where AI is a catalyst for long term growth. This award is a meaningful and well deserved recognition for the PECO team as we continue to stay on the cutting edge of technological advancements that help propel new initiatives and reinforce our position as a leader in the shopping center sector. In summary, the PECO team remains optimistic given the current strong operating environment and our continued positive momentum. Our healthy neighbor mix and grocery anchored strategy positions PECO well for continued growth.

Speaker 3

The overall demand environment, the stability of our centers, the strength of our grocers, the health of our in line neighbors and the capabilities of our team give us confidence in our ability to deliver solid operating results. I will now turn the call over to John. John?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Bob, and good morning and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start by addressing 2nd quarter results, then provide an update on the balance sheet and finally speak to our reaffirmed 2024 guidance. 2nd quarter 2024 NAREIT FFO increased 3.3 percent to $78,400,000 or $0.57 per diluted share, driven by an increase in rental income from our strong property operations. Results were partially impacted by higher year over year interest expense from higher interest rates. 2nd quarter core FFO increased 2.9 percent to $80,000,000 or $0.59 per diluted share, driven by increased revenue in our properties from higher occupancy levels and strong leasing spread, partially offset by the aforementioned higher interest expense.

Speaker 4

Our same center NOI growth in the quarter was 1.9%, driven by rental income growth of 4.3% year over year, partially offset by lower tenant recovery income and higher property level expenses. As in previous quarters, recoveries can be impacted by the mix and timing of spend, which we believe will smooth out over the year. I will note that our reserves for uncollectibility improved in the quarter as we indicated on the last call. Given the strong operating environment that Bob discussed, we're continuing to be aggressive with wavering neighbors. We expect this will keep us at the high end of our guidance range for this expense, and we believe this will meaningfully improve the rents and merchandising at our centers.

Speaker 4

Regarding acquisitions during Q2, we acquired 2 shopping centers and 1 land parcel for a total of $60,000,000 Subsequent to quarter end, we acquired 1 shopping center and 1 land parcel. Year to date, acquisitions have totaled $127,000,000 We had no dispositions during the quarter. We will continue to explore opportunities for dispositions where they make sense. Turning to the balance sheet, We have approximately $743,000,000 of liquidity to support our acquisition plan and no meaningful maturities until 2027. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained at 5.1 times.

Speaker 4

Our debt had a weighted average interest rate of 4.2% and a weighted average maturity of 4.9 years when including all extension options. During the quarter, we completed a bond offering of $350,000,000 at 5.75 percent due in 2,034. This offering was the next step in our long term strategy of becoming a regular issuer in the unsecured bond market, which improves our fixed rate percentage of debt and extends our maturity ladder. As of June 30, 2024, 91% of PECO's total debt was fixed rate. We continue to have one of the best balance sheets in the sector, although we believe the rating agencies do not give us the credit that we deserve.

Speaker 4

Our balance sheet has us well positioned for accretive acquisitions. Turning to our guidance for 2024, we've updated the net income per share range to $0.49 to $0.54 We have reaffirmed our guidance for NAREIT and core FFO, which reflects 6% and 3% growth over 2023 at the midpoints, respectively. In addition, we have reaffirmed our range for same center NOI growth of 3.25 percent to 4.25 percent given the continued strong operating environment. We currently have several acquisitions in our pipeline, either under contract or in contract negotiation. This activity provides a strong start for the year and we are reaffirming our acquisition guidance and expect net volume to be in the range of $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 If the transaction and capital markets improve, we have the capacity to meaningfully increase this number, but we are comfortable with this guidance range in the current environment.

Speaker 4

Looking beyond 2024, we believe our internal and external growth opportunities give us a long term growth outlook in the mid to high single digits for core FFO per share growth. We expect a comparable or faster growth rate for AFFO per share growth because there should be less tenant improvement dollars invested as we continue to increase same center occupancy. In the near term, we continue to be impacted by interest rate increases as all borrowers are, which impacts our earnings growth. That said, we are pleased to guide to positive per share growth. If we added back the per share impact of interest rate increases to our 2024 guidance, this would reflect 7% core FFO per share growth at the midpoint.

Speaker 4

2024 is continuing to present challenges with high inflation, high interest rates and global conflict. However, the strength of our integrated operating platform positions PECO well for long term steady earnings growth. We're excited for the additional growth opportunities ahead this year, both internal and through acquisitions. With that, we will open the line for questions. Operator?

Speaker 2

Thank

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good afternoon to you guys. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on a strong quarter. My first question is on the new joint venture with Kona Sears. I guess, help us understand why now? You have low leverage as you've indicated.

Speaker 5

You have an attractive cost of capital, attractive spreads and you're achieving IRRs above your underwriting, doing so on your own balance sheet. So why split the economics here and centers you'd be willing to own? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Hey, Anil thanks for the question. I'm sure we'll probably get a couple of those today on that issue. The reason is, I think it's simple. We've been in the fund business for a long time. I mean, this is this will be our 9th JV that we've got.

Speaker 2

And we see it as additive to our growth. I mean, as you know, we've got a very strong and aggressive growth strategy. This allows us to cast our net wider, and in casting the net wider, hopefully be able to grow at an additional pace. And if you look at our first acquisition as an example, it was a project that didn't meet our underwriting for the balance sheet, but it worked very well for the Cohen and Steers JV. So it allowed us to buy an additional project that we wouldn't have bought otherwise.

Speaker 2

And so as we look at that, that will increase our growth and it does underwrite to our numbers in the JV where it didn't as a balance sheet item.

Speaker 5

Great, great. Thanks for that.

Speaker 2

It leads me

Speaker 5

to my next question. Maybe a bit more color on the type of assets that you're targeting and then if you can tell us about the return hurdles. It sounds like they're a bit lower for on balance sheet. So maybe a bit on is there anything geographically, type of asset size, profile and then maybe some more color on the targeted returns you're going after here? Thanks.

Speaker 2

So, in terms of the details of the what we're buying, we're going to leave that to Cohen and Stiers to talk about that. It is their process. They've got 80% of the investment. For us, the key thing for us is that it we won't be in conflict with our balance sheet stuff. We're expanding our net so that we can buy more.

Speaker 2

And these are things that would not fit in our underwriting on the balance sheet. And that's how we are thinking about it.

Speaker 5

Just a follow-up, the time line for deploying the capital, any color on that front you could provide?

Speaker 2

Sure. We anticipate right now the number is $300,000,000 of equity and we think that we're using about $100,000,000 of equity a year as a 3 year program and we hopefully can do it much more quickly than that, but that is our plan.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, everyone. Bob, I think you mentioned that leasing interest is as high as ever. I don't know if you quite use that term, but high. So I guess when you say that, what stats are you looking at to make that statement? Is it number of deals in the active discussions?

Speaker 6

Is it square footage based? And it actually feels like those number of deals would have to be lower than in the past given your high occupancy, but maybe not. So just, yes, wondering if you can talk about what types of stats could support the statement that leasing is not showing signs of slowdown? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. I really think there are 3 key points and I think it's 1, the retention. So our retention at 89% and our in line retention above 85% is very solid. I'm not seeing any slowdown in that. And really it comes through with our new leasing spreads of 34% and our renewal spreads of 20.5%.

Speaker 3

Health ratios for our neighbors continue to be right around 9.5%. And coming out of Las Vegas and our national account program, the demand is at all time high and retailers are still looking for sites in 2025, 'twenty six and 'twenty seven. So even though our occupancy in line is 95.1, we still feel there's another 100, 150 basis points there of growth in in line because there's just no new supply out there. And the demand for being in the number 1, number 2 grocery anchored shopping centers where they want to be. So I don't see any slowdown.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. And then, John, on the bad debt side, I think you mentioned something along the lines suggesting you're being maybe less flexible with wavering tenants. Can you give some more detail on how that process maybe normally works, for example, when someone isn't paying on time and how PICO is handling it differently today, given the high occupancy and new rent spreads potential?

Speaker 7

Sure. Thanks, Caitlin. So, it did improve sequentially as we anticipated that it would. Really from our position, given the strength of the environment that Bob has talked about and the opportunity to improve the merchandising and ultimately the rents in our centers, we're not in a position where we're talking about payment plans or things. So what we're actually trying to do is move more quickly to recapturing that space.

Speaker 7

And then that takes a little bit of time depending upon their willingness to do so. But we do think that that ultimately is the right decision given the demand and the rates that Bob is referencing. Ultimately, from an uncollectible standpoint, we feel really good about our neighbors. Actually, our latest review says that our neighbors had a FICO score of 745. So we feel very positive or at least cautiously positive on our neighbors.

Speaker 7

And we are very diversified. Again, outside of our largest individual outside the grocer, the largest individual neighbor is TJ Maxx at 1.3%. And our watch list is actually just inside of 2% now, as I'd say, it's closer to 1.5%. So we're feeling really positive and continue to improve the portfolio.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Kayla.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you. Good afternoon. I guess my first question is focused on the same store NOI guidance. I think year to date is 2.8%.

Speaker 8

The guidance is 3.25% to 4.25%, which would mean there's meaningful acceleration in the back half of the year. Can you talk about the drivers of that acceleration? And is this correct?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jeff, for the question. John, you want to take that?

Speaker 7

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. So in the quarter, we grew by 1.9% and you're right, 2.8%. And it was really impacted by lighter recovery income, which is it's just a timing variance based on

Speaker 4

kind of the mix of

Speaker 7

spend in both the quarter year to date. So we do anticipate based on the timing of those recoveries for an acceleration in the latter half of this year. And ultimately, we will continue to grow minimum rent. I mentioned that reserves for uncollectibles have improved. And so, and we were able to exceed 95% in line occupancy for the first time ever, just highlighting that continued strength of our neighbors.

Speaker 7

So, ultimately, we are seeing that, but I think it's we're kind of talking about small numbers here and the more important pieces, we feel good about our reaffirmed guidance range.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you. And then one follow-up on the JV. To confirm, are you leveraging the existing platform? Do you need to hire new teams or markets?

Speaker 8

And can you discuss the fees? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. On the fees, Jeff, we're going to leave that up to Cone and Sears to talk about. In terms of resources, we will not be adding any additional resources to put this into work. So it is obviously a profitable from a fee perspective for us because we are utilizing the existing infrastructure.

Speaker 8

Great to hear. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi. I'm curious, the difference between the $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 of acquisitions that you're comfortable that's baked into guidance versus where you said, you could surpass it if the environment changes. Is it just conversations on product that you're close to, but just not close enough on pricing? Or what could cause you to go above the 200 to 300?

Speaker 3

Good. Well,

Speaker 2

thanks for the question, Mike. What I think we're trying to say there is that we do have a balance sheet that allows us to grow beyond the 200 to 300 if we can find product that meets our pretty strict underwriting criteria and that is number 1 or 2 grocer above a 9% unlevered IRR. And if we can find that product, we will we would grow beyond that amount. But we think that in the given the current market environment, we think that's a reasonable assumption.

Speaker 3

Got it. Okay. And then, I guess as it relates to the land parcels that you've been acquiring, are they adjacent to existing centers? And generally, what's the timeframe to start activating some sort of activity on the site?

Speaker 2

Bob, do you want to take that one?

Speaker 3

Yes, absolutely. So yes, the answer is yes. And they're anywhere from 1.9 to 3 acres in size. They are either adjacent or across the street from Publix anchored assets, Kroger anchor assets. And part of the strategy there is to add fuel for maybe a Harris Teeter down in Chapel Hill when we purchased that.

Speaker 3

When I look at these sites down in Riverview, Florida, there's strong demand from national retailers that we plan to do $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 of ground up and value add redevelopment per year. We're generating 9% to 12% returns on that. And we have a great national platform that's looking to grow with us. So yes, the answer is yes. They're adjacent to our properties and we already have most of them pre leased.

Speaker 3

So hopefully when we close, we're under lease within 60 days and then out of the ground and open and paying rent within 12 months. Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, just two quick ones. So just going back to the acquisitions for the guidance, can you talk about is it for the second half of the year? Is there anything in the pipeline or under contract? Or is it all sort of speculative at this point? And then the follow-up to that is just on the Cohen and Sears announcements.

Speaker 5

Is the thinking to do sort of more of these type of structures going forward? How are you guys sort of thinking through that?

Speaker 2

Rob, thanks for the question. On the acquisition side, I think we I think the way we've sort of put it in the prepared remarks was that we are seeing acquisitions that we are either in price negotiation with or in a contract status that give us some a pretty high level of confidence that we will get to the numbers that we're talking about. And importantly, we're seeing a fair amount of product in the market. It certainly is a much more liquid market than it was last year. Still there is increased competition from what we were seeing last year, but there's also quite a bit more product.

Speaker 2

So that I think that's what gives us the confidence both in terms of what we are actively negotiating under and or have under contract plus the liquidity in the market and the new product that's coming on. So I think we feel that's our rationale for feeling pretty comfortable with our $200,000,000 to 300 $1,000,000 guidance. On the Cohen and Steers JV, the reason we're really excited about is it expands our ability to buy product and buy product at underwriting returns that we that fit with our criteria. So that's the part that we're excited about. If we were to find other alternatives like that, that where we could explore parts of the market that where we've been successful at, but they don't underwrite to our current requirements, that would be an opportunity that would allow us to continue strong growth and additional growth.

Speaker 2

So that we would look for those, but at this point, other than the one smaller JV that we have underway, we don't see a lot see that as a strong potential at this time.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. Just my second one, I think you talked about the leasing environment a bit and the spreads, but those initiatives also on the rent bumps to try to get sort of higher rent bumps on tenants. Just maybe could you remind us where we are with that and what how that's been received by the tenants? Sure.

Speaker 2

Bob, do you want to take that one?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. So on the new leasing side of things, on our new leases, we're getting annual rent bumps between 2% and 3%. And then on the renewals, when we delivered 20.5% on our renewal spread, our CAGR was right around 3%. So we're continuing to be able to get that.

Speaker 3

We continue to see that, given the retailer demands, and I really don't see any pullback from that.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ron.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, thanks. Good afternoon. First question, I just wanted to follow-up on the joint venture and asset management platform a little bit more broadly. I think at the December Investor Day, it sounded like you were working towards 2 funds. You discussed 1 being a core fund, I think, with a 2 pronged strategy, so lower yielding, smaller format strips.

Speaker 9

And then also you discussed, I believe higher yielding power centers or larger format centers. Is this joint venture with Cohen and Steers what you were referencing in December? And can you just clarify if this fund will also be looking at some larger format centers as well as the smaller grocery anchored centers, which is similar to what you acquired outside of St. Louis so far?

Speaker 2

Yes. Todd, you're right on. I mean that is the we will be buying potentially larger centers in this pool. And so as well as sort of product that can underwrite to the needs of that fund, that would not meet our balance sheet requirements. So that is how we're thinking about it and looking at it.

Speaker 2

We did mention, I think, the social impact fund that we have that we're working on and we're going to talk we'll talk about that more once we have our first acquisition similar to what we did here with the Cohen and Steers deal.

Speaker 9

Okay. And in terms of capitalizing the fund, so roughly fifty-fifty debt and equity, Will the venture be looking for secured debt? Is this property level financing that will be targeted? And what does that look like today in the market?

Speaker 2

I would assume that is the that's how this first deal happened and that is a good assumption going forward. In terms of the structure and the pricing, John, do you want to give any again, we're trying to let Cohen and Steers sort of lead this discussion in terms of what they would like to have released. So but John, if you can give any additional color?

Speaker 7

Sure. Yes. So, as Jeff said, this asset was done that way. I mean, we'll continue to evaluate different capital opportunities. So rather than this asset, maybe I'll just speak a little more broadly.

Speaker 7

I mean, the capital markets are the secured markets in that and this venture is definitely open for gross shrinkage real estate. And I would say that that's probably looking at for 10 year money, you're probably still in that $175,000,000 over range kind of that's what has been the case and I think that's still available out there. But we're more focused on the balance sheet at the unsecured markets, but we will evaluate the finance increase opportunities as we move along.

Speaker 9

All right, great. And John, just one last one for you. Can you provide an update as we make our way further through the year here regarding the swap expirations and any potential debt capital raising activity in the back half of the year just given the current capital markets environment today?

Speaker 7

Todd, I really appreciate that question. You heard me kind of leaning that way with my last answer. You gave me an opportunity to talk about it. So, yes, so we have swaps that are due to expire in September, October, dollars 375,000,000 We have a $150,000,000 swap that will take effect at the same time to help mitigate some of that impact. But at the end of this quarter, we are 91% of our debt is fixed rate, which is a meaningful improvement from the Q1 as we execute on our long term strategy.

Speaker 7

And again, a reminder of that is we want to be a repeat issuer in the unsecured bond market with a target of approximately 10% of our debt unsecured bond market with a target of approximately 10% of our debt expiring each year. So in May, we issued the $350,000,000 bonds with great support from the bond market and investors, and it is putting us towards that goal. So as we look to manage this fixed floating ratio, and again, our target for that is to be 90% fixed, 10% floating, we want to do that really through future data issuances. But the most important element for us is that we no longer have any meaningful maturities until really 2026, which gives us time to be patient and access to the market opportunistically. So we will look to utilize our fully replenished revolver.

Speaker 7

I think there's a little bit outstanding here currently, but we have the ability to buy our acquisition plan. And so in terms of future, we will look to access it opportunistically, but the guide would say that we're just going to fund it kind of the way that we have and look to the markets as they become available. And there's no just also there's no equity issuance assumed in the guide.

Speaker 9

Okay. So no new swaps

Speaker 7

or Other than the one we actually anticipate. Yes.

Speaker 9

Okay. Got it. Correct. So I guess you're saying you'll take down or you'll put additional funding on the line for now and then look to be in the market issuing notes again similar to what you did a couple of months ago?

Speaker 7

That's the playbook.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of florist van Dijkkem with Compass Point Research and Trading. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks guys for taking my question. Hey, Jeff, I had a question on the Cone and Steers JV. Are there any restrictions on Cone and Steers owning PECO stock as a result of this JV that you've just entered into?

Speaker 2

No. I mean, no. The answer is no. And we there are very different areas that work on that. So there is no conflict there and there is no restrictions there.

Speaker 10

Great, great. Thanks. Next question I had was maybe this is more on the leasing side, but you've talked about the obviously the improved terms you're getting, renewal rates by the way, are near 90% are just off the charts. So it's great. But maybe talk about one of the things that sort of impeded some of your growth over the last quarters has been the fact that you still have a fair amount of option from tenants where they can obviously renew it at below market rents.

Speaker 10

Can you talk about some of the new terms that you're negotiating with tenants on options going forward as well? And is that going to slow down your growth going forward? Or are you getting more favorable terms on your options

Speaker 2

do Why don't I just take it first, Bob, and then you can cover on and do it better than I do. The Florist, we are always pushing for less options, obviously. And in this environment, we have some more strength there. To get the right merchandising in your centers, you're making you've got to make sure you're bringing in the right people. They tend to want to control the space over a longer period of time, and options are their preferred method.

Speaker 2

We're extending leases a little bit, a year or 2 to try and reduce the option side of it. But it is a as you're looking at a shopping center, it's very important that you have the right merchandising mix for each center that you have. And so your compromises are not on a macro level. They're on a very specific property. And if we need to bring that neighbor in to get the merchandising mix that we want, will we give them options or not?

Speaker 2

And that is where that's where the really hard decisions are made. We obviously can do we've got more strength than we've had in an awfully long time, but it still is a property by property decision. Bob, any further add to that?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. The only other thing I would add on that is we are seeing improved deal terms when it comes to options. Certainly, the national tenants that are investing a lot of capital in this space is want to have options and they're typically 5 years on average. But we are seeing options increase anywhere between 15% 25%.

Speaker 3

So we've made it known internally that options aren't something that we think about lightly. Obviously, we don't want to give them. But if we do, then we want to make sure that we're getting somewhere between 15% 25% on the options. And we are having success in that strategy. So you'll continue to see that number improve.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks guys.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Lars.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Omo Teo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Going back to Floris' question around the Conan Spares at JZ, could you also talk a little bit about how, again, decisions are made in regards to assets you're looking at and what could potentially go into the JV versus what can you say on your balance sheet? Like how is that potential conflict of interest going to be managed?

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question. The what we have a as I said earlier, we this is our 9th JV over the last 30 years that we've had. Picking your partner in these things is really important. And which partner you have and making sure that you're both aligned with what you're trying to do is critical and it's one of the reasons it takes so long to get these things in place. We have a very strong alignment with Cohen and Steers in terms of what is going to go into their portfolio and what's going to be on our balance sheet.

Speaker 2

And that is what that gives us a high level of confidence that like we've done in our other 8 JVs, we're going successfully place this capital and it's not going to be there's not going to be a lot of confusion about that. And so if you that's the way we're thinking about it. We're very comfortable that we are expanding the net, not taking stuff off of balance sheet. And as we reaffirmed our guidance on the balance sheet, we're going to continue to have a strong growth on the balance sheet. And this will expand our growth, but it will not conflict with our balance sheet.

Speaker 11

That's helpful. Thank you. And then going back to some of the earlier commentary around the same store NOI and some of the kind of timing related issues on OpEx. Again, John, could you again clarify that a little bit for us of how we kind of think about what that means for the back half of twenty twenty four and kind of same store OpEx growth and same store NOI growth?

Speaker 7

Sure. Sure, Keya. So as we look at it, a little bit at some of the more recoverable spend that we would have in the Q2 is delayed this year. And it's just it is a mixed piece. And ultimately, you can see our same store margin was about 50 basis or well, yes, no, 50 basis points less.

Speaker 7

It was 72% compared to 72.5% last year. And actually, based on what we're seeing in our kind of like currently what our property managers are doing, we believe that, that spend will kind of improve. So you'll have a sequential increase, you'll have it improved over last year because last year was more Q2 than Q3. So ultimately, we're just seeing a better recovery rate. But even though on a consistent spend, I mean, and I think this is also kind of underscores why we don't provide quarterly guidance.

Speaker 7

We try to have a really stable projection period. We'd like to just have constant steady, but ultimately, we very much don't want to get in the way of running these centers and operating in the best way that we can. So, we do feel good about recovery improving, uncollectibles, holding or improving, and then ultimately continuing to grow minimum rent growth that is going to get us to that 3.25% to 4.25%.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi. Just wanted to follow-up on Tayo's question there. Can you give us any sense of is the comfort level still fully at the midpoint or maybe more at the low end just given the implied second half acceleration in your same store NOI guidance?

Speaker 7

Sure. We are looking to the midpoint on these. They are ranges. Ultimately, things that would go above that would be kind of continued strong retention, although it's quite high already. And then I would say to go to the lower end would be same thing, weaker retention or weaker weakness around collectibility.

Speaker 7

But right now, to that point, we are definitely looking at, I would say, the middle of that range.

Speaker 12

Thanks. And then not to belabor the point on the Cone and Steers JV, but just curious with the you said there's clearly siloed boxes of where assets that you're underwriting would go to the non balance sheet or the JV. But just curious,

Speaker 11

are the is it

Speaker 12

more of the initial yield not meeting your 9% unlevered IRR target or is there maybe not the same higher level of standards on number 1 or 2 grocer? I guess, would you want to ultimately own those assets on balance sheet whenever the fund decides to exit? And do you have ROFOs or any other rights to buy those assets over time?

Speaker 2

So the I would assume these assets will generally be larger. They will be open air grocery anchored. That's a critical part for the JV. But I would assume that they will be larger in terms of square footage than our typical store, our center that we purchase. And but that I mean, that would probably be the only thing that I would say will be a big deviation from our current balance sheet buys.

Speaker 2

And again, the balance sheet is underwriting to a 9 unlevered IRR. The fund has different return requirements than that. So that is and as I think I pointed out earlier, we wouldn't have bought the project in St. Louis because it didn't meet our underwriting requirements when we underwrote it. So, this with the fees, we were able to exceed our underwriting return requirements and meet the requirements of the cone and steers JV.

Speaker 2

So that's I this is an additive as we had expected, this is an additive growth vehicle for PECO, where we can get very strong returns and we're excited about that.

Speaker 12

And do you have rights to acquire those assets built into the partnership?

Speaker 2

Again, that's a Cohen and Steers issue that we will let them answer the question on. We have a really good relationship with them and anything that would be resolved will be resolved at the right time, in a way that every that's good for everybody. And so, if it's us buying it, it's them buying it, it's like we're a long way from that. We want to get the $300,000,000 of equity out and then we can talk about some of the other things. And we are comfortable that that will happen over time.

Speaker 5

Got it.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Yes. Thanks, Ron.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Doreen Kestin with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Good afternoon. If you were to put out a 25% early look today, would you assume a higher bad debt as a percentage of revenue as compared to this year? Or is there a reason to believe you may be a bit less aggressive with your space than you are currently?

Speaker 2

Hey, Dory, I didn't I'm sorry, I didn't quite hear what the question was. Can you just repeat it for me?

Speaker 13

Yes. I just said, if you were looking out to next year, would you assume a higher bad debt as a a percentage of revenue

Speaker 2

Yes. I would assume we're as we've talked about, we'll be at the higher end of our range on bad debt this year. And next year, assuming that we're in the similar environment, we're able to take a very aggressive role of getting properties back and growing rents, that it would be at the higher end of that of the range that we've targeted as well. But again, that is to be seen. But still and still in a really good I mean, at 80 basis points, it's still a really good place to be.

Speaker 13

Yes, absolutely. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dorey.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the conference back to Jeff Edison for some closing remarks. Jeff?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, operator. So in closing, the Pico team continued our strong operating performance in the first half of twenty 24. We delivered record high in line leasing occupancy. We executed high record high renewal rent spreads and our new leasing spreads are among the highest in the peer group.

Speaker 2

We have among the highest retention in the space. We're on track to acquire $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 of net acquisitions for the year. Our targeted unlevered IRRs are exceeding 9% for our acquisitions. We completed a $350,000,000 bond offering. We continue to have one of the lowest levered balance sheets in the shopping center space.

Speaker 2

And despite meaningful interest rate expense headwinds, we delivered strong earnings growth. At PECO, we cultivate a culture in which our associates think and act like owners every day in every decision. Since our founding, PECO has focused on developing the best culture and team in the business. You can see that reflected in our associate engagement results and in the average number of years that our leaders and associates have been part of the PECO team. PECO Associates are focused on operational excellence and innovation.

Speaker 2

A few recent examples include the following. The Cincinnati Enquirer each year ranks companies further in their work environment. PECO has been voted a top place to work in Cincinnati for 8 years in a row. As Bob highlighted, this year, PECO won the Digi Award for the best use of AI at the Realcom Conference, again, getting recognition for the innovation that we do. Dashcom, a communication software system developed by the Pico IT team, has been one of Pico's greatest innovations.

Speaker 2

Dashcom continues to deliver best in class customer experiences and communications to our more than 5,800 neighbors. This technology is now being used by ID Plans in their tenant portal. Ampeco's internship program was recently recognized by the ICSC. We posted that article on our IR website and hope you will check it out. Our differentiated and focused strategy and our talented and innovative team combined to create a market leader in the shopping center business.

Speaker 2

We're confident that the PECO team will continue to deliver market leading results for the remainder of the year. Looking beyond 2024, PECO is well positioned to continue to successfully grow as we look forward. We believe we provide our investors more alpha and less beta. On behalf of the management team, I'd like to thank our shareholders, PECO Associates and our neighbors for their continued support. Thank you all for your time today, and enjoy your weekend.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. Q2 2024
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads