Kohl's Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 28, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q2 2024 Kohl's Corporation Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

Operator

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mark Group, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Certain statements made on this call, including projected financial results and the company's future initiatives are forward looking statements. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which could cause Kohl's actual results to differ materially from those projected in such forward looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those that are described in Item 1A in Kohl's most recent Annual Report on Form 10 ks and as may be supplemented from time to time in Kohl's other filings with the SEC, all of which are expressly incorporated herein by reference. Forward looking statements relate to the date initially made, and Kohl's undertakes no obligation to update them.

Speaker 1

In addition, during this call, we may make reference to non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures can be found in the investor presentation filed as an exhibit to our Form 8 ks filed with the SEC and is available on the company's Investor Relations website. Please note that this call will be recorded. However, replays of this call will not be updated. So if you're listening to a replay of this call, it is possible that the information discussed is no longer current, and Kohl's undertakes no obligation to update such information.

Speaker 1

With me this morning are Tom Kingsbury, our Chief Executive Officer and Jill Timm, our Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. We continue to work hard to reposition Kohl's for future growth and have taken significant actions to accomplish this. While we recognize efforts of this scale take time, we were hopeful that a return to top line growth would materialize more quickly. We are making progress against our strategic priorities. However, our performance has been impacted by a continued challenging environment and in softness in our core business.

Speaker 2

During the Q2, we attracted more new customers to Kohl's and experienced an increase in overall transactions, both of which are positive developments. At the same time, however, our customers exhibited more discretion in their spending, which pressured overall sales and overshadowed strong performance in our key growth areas, including Sephora, home decor, gifting and impulse. Although we are disappointed with our 2nd quarter sales, we continue to execute well operationally, enabling us to deliver a 13% increase in earnings driven by gross margin expansion and strong inventory and expense management. Looking ahead, we are focused on ensuring that the substantial work that we've done across product, value and experience is fully recognized by both new and existing customers. We will capitalize on new opportunities such as our partnership with Babies R Us and expect to continue to benefit from our key growth areas.

Speaker 2

And we will evolve our marketing to highlight all of our new product initiatives, while also amplifying our focus on value with an emphasis on lower price messaging. As Jill will discuss in more detail, our outlook for the balance of the year assumes the macroeconomic environment will remain challenging. Importantly, our operating discipline, our solid cash flow generation and healthy balance sheet will continue to provide meaningful support as we work to return calls to growth as demonstrated by our Q2 operating performance. Through all of this, we will remain focused on executing against our 4 strategic priorities, which are enhancing the customer experience, accelerating and simplifying our value strategies, managing inventory and expenses with discipline and further strengthening our balance sheet. As I look at the progress we are making, we continue to manage inventory and expenses tightly and have strengthened our balance sheet.

Speaker 2

And though we have taken significant action to enhance the customer experience and simplify our value strategies, we simply have more work to do to ensure we are fully capitalizing on our efforts. Let me start with what's working. First, Sephora at Kohl's continued to deliver strong growth in Q2 with total beauty sales increasing approximately 45%. Comparable beauty sales grew in the low teens percent with consistent performance across shops opened in 2021 2022. And shops opened in the past year are performing better than expected.

Speaker 2

We also continue to see solid growth digitally. Fragrance, bath and body and skin care were especially strong in the quarter in brands including Sol De Janeiro, Sephora Collection and Rare Beauty and Charlotte Tilbury drove impressive growth. Our partnership with Sephora has been incredibly successful. Together, we have acquired millions of new customers and gained significant market share within the industry. Sephora now has a presence in 1050 of our stores following the opening of 140 shops this year.

Speaker 2

Looking ahead, we are confident in our ability to continue driving solid growth. We are introducing new brands such as House Labs by Lady Gaga and Glossier in makeup and Ariana Grande in fragrance. We're also significantly expanding our holiday gifting assortment building off of last year's success. 2nd, our work in underpenetrated categories continues to gain traction. Sales trends in home decor, gifting and impulse accelerated in Q2.

Speaker 2

And earlier this month, we successfully launched our partnership with Babies R Us. These collective areas continue to represent a significant sales growth opportunity in the coming years. Let me share a little more on each of these. Our efforts to build our home decor business continues to progress, benefiting from our expanded assortment and recent investments in marketing. In Q2, sales of seasonal and everyday decor increased more than 35% year over year.

Speaker 2

And we also experienced strong growth across many other areas such as storage, wall art, glassware and pet. For back to school, we have highlighted backpacks and dorm room essentials. In gifting, our customers continue to respond well to our assortment and front of store positioning. In Q2, sales increased more than 30% with solid performances across key events, including Mother's Day, Father's Day and 4th July. We will build on our success with an even more robust gift assortment for the upcoming holiday season.

Speaker 2

As it relates to impulse, we drove sales growth of more than 70% as we expanded queue lines to 50 more stores in the 2nd quarter. In Q3, we will add 200 more queue lines, bringing the total to 4 35 queue lines in time for the holiday season. Now let me provide a brief update on our initial launch of Babies R Us, which allows us to broaden our reach with young families. We're in the process of opening 200 baby shops featuring thousands of products across baby gear, furniture and accessories from a number of high quality brands. We have opened more than 100 of our shops in August and are planning to open the remainder during the next month.

Speaker 2

Our baby offering is also available to customers online. We will learn from this initial launch, which will inform our plans for future expansion. In conjunction with the launch, we are introducing motherhood, a leading maternity brand to enhance our offering for expectant mothers. And in Q3, we will introduce a Babies R Us registry. In addition to baby gear and maternity, we will also see a halo opportunity to grow sales of our infant and newborn apparel.

Speaker 2

Moving beyond product, let me share some of our other initiatives that are working. We continue to effectively manage inventory and expenses. Inventory in Q2 declined 9% versus last year. We continue to operate with greater flexibility and open to buy, which has enabled us to manage our inventory effectively despite lower sales. Remain committed to increasing inventory turn

Speaker 3

and managing inventory down mid single digits.

Speaker 2

And from an expense perspective, I am pleased with how the organization has remained disciplined in what continues to be a challenging environment. SG and A expenses in Q2 declined over 4% compared to last year. And lastly, we continue to strengthen our balance sheet. During the Q2, we reduced our long term debt by $113,000,000 and reduced our revolver borrowings by $150,000,000 as compared to last year. Now let me discuss some of the headwinds our business continues to face and the actions we are taking.

Speaker 2

As I previously mentioned, our customers exhibited more discretion during the Q2. Inflation and high interest rates continue to pressure spending, especially among our middle income consumers. We are seeing the clearest evidence of this in the performance of our core apparel and footwear offering, which experienced broad softness in the quarter. To better navigate this environment, we are taking a number of actions to ensure that our customers recognize all of the enhancements we have made across product value and experience during the past year. We are evolving our marketing message to increase consideration of Kohl's as a leading destination for value for the entire family.

Speaker 2

Our advertising has already begun to include messaging around lower price points across our assortment. And we will begin leveraging real customers and influencers to showcase not only our great values, but also our enhanced product offering. And of course, we'll continue to lean into Kohl's cash as a key value differentiator. Beyond our marketing efforts, we know we have more work to do in our core apparel and footwear business to improve the sales trends, which frankly have been disappointing. To be clear, we remain confident that the product we are offering today is more relevant to our customers.

Speaker 2

This is supported by a recent customer insight work that indicates more of our customers feel Kohl's resonates with them and by an increase in conversion we experienced in the Q2. We are delivering growth in our new products including dresses, which are benefiting from expanded space in our stores as well as market brands, which are resonating well with our customers. And we are seeing promising initial sell through trends in newly introduced brands such as Aeropostale and Limited 2. We are also encouraged by trend improvement in active we witnessed during the quarter. Our private active brands, which include Flex and Tech Gear grew low double digits and we delivered positive growth in several of our national brands including Nike, Skechers, Columbia and Eddie Bauer.

Speaker 2

As it relates to back to school, we are pleased with our positioning in backpacks, kids footwear and boys and girls apparel. Nonetheless, there are several areas of our business that are holding us back, some of which are self inflicted. Jewelry is a good example of a category where we failed to retain sales as we made space for Sephora in stores. As we've discussed on last quarter's call, this is a category that was highly valued by our customers and we are committed to reestablishing our positioning. This holiday season, we will reintroduce fine jewelry in 200 stores as well as expand in aisle placement of bridge jewelry.

Speaker 2

We have also identified opportunities to rebuild our assortment with increased newness in areas including petites and classic sportswear where we've lost traction in recent years. And we continue to see opportunity in growing our juniors and legacy home businesses, which candidly underperformed in Q2. During Q2, we began to reposition Junior's back to the front of the store, which is expected to positively influence sales this fall by capitalizing on to Sephora traffic. We will also continue to leverage market brands to bring in trend right product to better connect with our younger customers. As it relates to our legacy home business, sales within kitchen electric, floor care and bedding remained under pressure.

Speaker 2

However, we expect trends to stabilize as we move through fall based on increased innovation, new brand introductions and a stronger value messaging. Lastly, it's important that we continue to drive traffic across our omnichannel platform. In Q2, digital sales outperformed store sales with transactions increasing in both channels. To support future growth, we are investing to enhance our omni experience. In stores, we are strengthening our leadership structure, adding an additional layer of management closer to stores to ensure we are driving a consistent experience across the chain.

Speaker 2

And digitally, we continue to increase personalization while also leaning into social commerce to reach a younger audience. So as you heard, we have a number of actions underway to stabilize and improve our sales trend. Collectively, we believe our strategic initiatives will help us reach new customers and increase engagement with existing customers. I will now summarize my comments today and I want to leave you with 3 things. 1st, we continue to operate in a difficult consumer environment.

Speaker 2

Our customers are feeling the burden of the higher cost of living. This was evident in smaller basket sizes in Q2. Recognizing this, we have amplified our focus on value, especially in our marketing messaging. 2nd, we continue to execute well operationally and remain in a sound financial position. Despite the decline in sales, we increased Q2 earnings by 13%.

Speaker 2

We are expanding our gross margin, managing inventory and expenses with discipline and strengthening our balance sheet by reducing long term debt. We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through the dividend, which is supported by our solid cash flow generation. And 3rd, our investments in key growth areas are building momentum. Sephora at Kohl's continues to drive strong sales growth and will benefit in the back half of the year from the additional 140 shops opened. We're also gaining traction in home decor, significantly expanding our holiday gifting offering and adding impulse queuing lines to 200 more stores in Q3, all of which are positioned to deliver incrementally this holiday season, and we are optimistic that our Babies R Us launch will bring in new customers as awareness builds.

Speaker 2

As I said at the outset, we are working hard to reposition Kohl's for future growth and we are taking significant action to accomplish this against a difficult economic backdrop. That said, our confidence in our strategy remains strong. We continue to believe that we are making the right strategic decisions to set Coles up for the long term success. And in time, I look forward to delivering results that reflect this. I want to thank all of our associates for their dedication to Kohl's in support of our strategic efforts.

Speaker 2

I will now turn over the call to Jill to discuss our Q2 results and outlook for 2024. Jill?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. For today's call, I will provide additional details on our Q2 results as well as an update on our fiscal year 2024 guidance. Net sales decreased 4.2% in Q2 and are down 4.7% year to date. Comparable sales declined 5.1% in Q2 and declined 4.8% year to date. As Tom indicated, in Q2, we attracted more new customers to Kohl's and experienced an increase in overall transactions, both of which are positive developments.

Speaker 4

However, customers exhibited more discretion in their spending, which led to smaller average basket size. Digital sales outperformed store sales in the quarter, so both were down to last year. Other revenue, which is primarily our credit business, decreased 5% in the quarter year to date, in line with our expectations. Moving down the P and L. 2nd quarter gross margin was 39.6%, up 59 basis points versus last year.

Speaker 4

This increase was driven by inventory management and lower freight expense. Year to date gross margin was 39.6%, an increase of 54 basis points. SG and A expenses declined 4.2 percent to $1,200,000,000 in Q2, benefiting from lower store related expenses even as we invested in marketing and technology to support our growth initiatives. The decline in store related expenses was driven by fewer Sephora openings, fewer store refreshes and tightly managing expenses with the decline in sales. Year to date, SG and A expenses have decreased 2.5% compared to last year.

Speaker 4

Depreciation expense in the quarter was $188,000,000 $376,000,000 year to date, both up $2,000,000 to last year. Interest expense was $86,000,000 in the quarter, down $3,000,000 from last year. As a reminder, Q2 interest expense included a $4,600,000 pre tax charge related to the executed on our May 2025 notes during the quarter. Year to date, interest expense decreased $4,000,000 to $169,000,000 Net income for the quarter was $66,000,000 and earnings per diluted share was $0.59 Year to date, net income was $39,000,000 and earnings per diluted share was $0.35 Moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow. We ended Q2 with $231,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents.

Speaker 4

Inventory at quarter end was down 9% compared to last year, once again exceeding our commitment of mid single digits decline. Inventory management remains a key focus of ours with the goal of increasing churn, which increased 7% in Q2. Looking ahead, we feel good about how we are positioned entering the fall season. Year to date, operating cash flow was $247,000,000 an increase of $228,000,000 last year. And year to date, adjusted free cash flow was a use of $34,000,000 an improvement from a use of $140,000,000 in the prior year.

Speaker 4

Now let me touch on our capital allocation priorities. Capital expenditures year to date were $239,000,000 significantly less than the $338,000,000 last year, driven by fewer Sephora openings. We are still planning 20.24 CapEx of approximately $500,000,000 consisting of investment in 350 impulse queuing lines, 140 Sephora small shop openings, the launch of 200 Babies R Us shops and 6 new store openings including 1 relocation. After investing in the business, strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders also remains a top priority. We ended Q2 with $410,000,000 on our revolver, down from $560,000,000 at the end of Q2 last year.

Speaker 4

During the Q2, we redeemed the remaining $113,000,000 of our 9.5% notes due May 2025, lowering our long term debt. For the remainder of the year, our focus will be on paying down our revolver balance and rebuilding our cash position. Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor our options with respect to the July 2025 notes and will likely address them closer to maturity given the favorable coupon rate. As for shareholder returns, we continue to prioritize the payment of our dividend at current levels. In Q2, we distributed $56,000,000 in dividends to our shareholders.

Speaker 4

And as previously disclosed, the Board on August 13 declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share payable to shareholders on September 25. Now let me share some details on our updated outlook for 2024. As you've heard this morning, we continue to have strong confidence in our strategy and are working hard to reposition Kohl's for future growth. We are approaching our financial outlook for the year prudently, taking into account our first half performance and ongoing uncertainty in the consumer environment. For the full year, we currently expect net sales to be in the range of a 4% decrease to a 6% decrease versus 2023 as compared to our previous guidance range of a decrease of 2% to 4%.

Speaker 4

Comparable sales to be in the range of a 3% decrease to a 5% decrease. Our previous full year comparable sales guidance range was a 1% decrease to a 3% decrease. Other revenue is expected to be down mid single digits for the full year. Given the uncertainty surrounding the timing of the implementation of the CFPB late fee rule, which is currently being challenged in litigation, we have excluded any potential impact from our updated guidance. We will continue to monitor development and will provide an update when appropriate in the future.

Speaker 4

We expect gross margin to expand 40 basis points to 50 basis points and SG and A dollars to be down 2% to 3% for the year. We expect operating margin to be in the range of 3.4% to 3.8% as compared to our prior guidance range of 3% to 3.5% and EPS to be in the range of $1.75 to 2 $0.25 This compares to our prior guidance of $1.25 to 1 $0.85 In closing, I want to reiterate that we remain financially strong and are prepared to navigate this environment. As we've demonstrated in Q2, our operating discipline, solid cash flow generation and healthy balance sheet will continue to provide meaningful support as we continue our work to return Kohl's to growth. With that, Tom and I are happy to take questions at this time.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. And we'll take our first question from Bob Drbul at Guggenheim.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. I guess if I could get 2 questions in. The first one is just, Tom, on the core business with what you're doing in women's and dresses and the shops, can you just expand more on like how those businesses with shops are doing versus non stores that don't have the shops in them? And just wondering if you could just talk a little bit more on the expectations for promotional environment for the rest of the year?

Speaker 2

Well, I think it's to answer the first the last question first, it's going to be very promotional. We're really focused on that. The customer is squeezed and we think it's really important that we deliver as much value in the selling floor as we possibly can. The Q4 is always promotional, but we think it's going to be even more promotional just based on what we're currently experiencing right now. Overall, the customer that was the middle income customer, really stressed in terms of what they're dealing with right now.

Speaker 2

So we're going to try to deliver as much value as possible, as I said. As far as women's in terms of shops versus non shops, obviously if they have dresses, they're performing better because dresses are performing very well. We're very pleased with our performance in that category. We're expanding to wall stores based on our current performance overall. The women's business is one of the businesses in the Q2 that from the Q1 went backwards.

Speaker 2

We're not happy with that. The team is working really hard to turn it around. We have a really good team there. The intimate apparel business really hurt us there. We struggled with some of the key brands in our assortments there.

Speaker 2

It made up a lot of the decrease that we had overall. We haven't really turned the corner in the active business. Active improves in the other areas very nicely. The junior business, it's really in the middle of a transformation. We're moving that product from the middle of the women's sportswear business to the front of the store, we saw a real nice lift in those stores that have been able to accomplish that, that should be done obviously in the Q3 overall.

Speaker 2

But we're putting the women's business under the microscope and we really are trying to work hard to turn that business around as soon as we can.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you very much. Good luck.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Operator

We'll move next to Mark Altschwager at Baird.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. This is Amy Tuske on for Mark this morning. Can you speak to the cadence of demand through the quarter and if there were any material differences between regular pricing clearance? And then amid the ongoing macro challenges, what is giving you the confidence that core merchandise initiatives are on track?

Speaker 4

I can start with the cadence for the comps and we really don't speak inter month. What I would say is we had a pretty consistent quarter from that perspective. Nothing to call out this quarter on reg and clearance. We had a unique event in Q1 when we were comping a very large markdown from the year before. And so we're really back to normal business and Q2 isn't a huge clearance order for us.

Speaker 4

Obviously Q1 is much more impactful because of the seasonal change and then Q3 is another time that we have a big clearance. So there really isn't much to talk about from that perspective. I think we said we had started out on the call in May a little softer. So we saw some ebbs and flows, but obviously it's down at the where we were in Q1, so down 5% was well below where expectations were for the quarter. And I think the big things is the newness is working and you heard that from Tom on the call, but it does to your second question really come back to some of these core items particularly as Tom just talked about in women's.

Speaker 4

We saw that not only in intimate, we saw it in their seasonal assortment as well. So swim and some of their other summer assortment had not really resonated as much, but the newness with dresses is doing incredibly well. So as we look ahead, we're looking at what we can do to continue to bring in that newness and really leveraging the market and that's the strategy that Tom has brought to the table. So you should see a lot more newness on the floor, which has been resonating with the customer. And then as Tom mentioned, the juniors business was soft in those areas that we left it in the middle.

Speaker 4

But as we moved to the front right across from Sephora, we saw that business pick up and we think we're really taking advantage of that Sephora customer, bring it to the forefront so they can see the newness that we're bringing in, particularly around brands like Aeropostale, Limited 2 and Madden Girl have done well as we've launched them as well.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next we'll move to Chuck Grom at Gordon Haskett.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Thanks very much. On Sephora, can you guys speak about the percentage of customers that are cross shopping the store when they make a Sephora purchase today and how that compares to say maybe earlier in the year or maybe 12 months ago? And then zooming out, you talked about repositioning juniors. I guess how can you take advantage of Sephora in a better way going forward?

Speaker 2

Well, we've seen a nice crossover in terms of customers that are shopping at Sephora. Primarily, it's around 35% of the Sephora baskets have another product from Kohl's in their basket. It's primarily there's women's in the basket, juniors is in the basket, impulse and accessories overall. We're trying to take advantage of that. That's one reason why we're moving juniors to the front of the store because we think there's a lot of crossover from the Sephora customer into juniors because of the fact that it's a trend, it's a Sephora is a trend product, juniors is a trend product overall.

Speaker 2

We feel that's true with accessories as well. So, we're trying to connect those categories as much as possible. We feel that over time, the more and more we do that, the more we're going to have repeat customers overall. It's been sort of stable.

Speaker 5

I think it

Speaker 2

was initially, it was a little bit higher, but it hasn't changed dramatically. I don't know, Jill, do you have anything you want to add to that?

Speaker 4

No, I think we've seen it very consistent in terms of the cross shop that we have. We also see that those customers do shop us like 1.5 times more frequently. So that I think one of the calls we had in the quarter was that our transactions were up. And I think, Chuck, we haven't seen that for a while. So we are seeing that customer shop and buy more frequently.

Speaker 4

And the conversion was also up. So the new product that we're bringing resonating. I think the only thing I would add is kids was also seen in the basket. So as we now can complement that with our Babies R Us initiative that we'll be launching. So really all the areas that we've seen in the basket, really trying to have some enhancements around that to take advantage of the baskets, but really how can we continue to grow that and then even get more trips out of that customer knowing that beauty is a replenishable item.

Speaker 2

Yes. The other thing that's exciting about the Sephora and we've said this multiple times before is that 40% of the customers that are shopping Sephora at Kohl's are new to Kohl's. So that's a pretty phenomenal number overall. And we're still on target to hit the numbers that we've been seeing all along.

Speaker 7

That's great. It seems like a big opportunity. And then just on Babies R Us, any early reads thus far? How impactful do you think it could be to comps? And then just, Jill, just on the back half, outlook, anything on the phasing of comps or gross margins that we should be thinking about in our models?

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 2

I'll let Jill answer that obviously, but I'll talk about Babies R Us. It's early. I mean, we have it in a 100 stores and it's just really got into a 100 stores and it's obviously by the end of September, it'll be in the 200 stores. Just some color on it. The number one category so far is baby gear, car seats and strollers, etcetera, which is really good, because that's what's really want to see.

Speaker 2

The second category really is furniture. That's another positive that they're really shopping us. I mean, if it was feeding or something like that or gifts, we wouldn't be as excited about it. But candidly though, it's so early, you hate to really tout it too much because give us some time and we'll be giving you color on that as it emerges. Jill?

Speaker 4

Yes. And in terms of the guidance, I guess what I would say is a lot of our initiatives for the back half are starting. So we do expect there to be a build from that perspective. Obviously, we just talked about 100 stores for BRU opening in August and another 100 coming in September. The impulse lines, we're opening up an additional 200 in the back half of the year as well.

Speaker 4

And that's been a real positive for us, really getting that extra item, a little extra dollars from that customer. So we're looking to bring that into 3 50 stores this year. So that'll happen in the back half as well. And then a lot of these brand launches that we're talking about are just setting on the store, so the newness that you'll see. And then as we go into holiday, I think what we're excited about is building off some of the successes from last year, particularly around gifting.

Speaker 4

So we're going to have a stronger presence in gifting across the store. I think, almost 2x what we saw last year. We're going to have big Sephora gift shops. If we think about how we can bring those gift boxes out onto the floor as well, really around fragrance and skin care, so learning from what we saw last year. So I would just say that it probably is going to be a build from a sales perspective as those initiatives continue to build for us.

Speaker 4

And then from a margin perspective, I think it's probably going to be pretty similar. I mean Q3 has more of a clearance, but I think with the inventory management that we've had, we've really been able to benefit off of that strength. So I would say a pretty clear between the two a pretty even margin increase for the year.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks, Phil. Thanks, Tom.

Operator

We'll take our final question from Michael Binetti at Evercore.

Speaker 8

Hi, this is Jacqueline Wong on behalf of Michael. Just on the guidance, what's driving the increased margin leverage in the guidance in the second half despite the lower sales and how durable this is? Also what's the impact of excluding the CFPB from the 2024 guidance? I know it was included in the Q1.

Speaker 4

Sure. I think from the back half of the year, the way we looked at the guidance is the low end is really the trend that we have seen in the front half of the year, so down 5%. And then the down 3% really is about the initiatives that we just talked about and the build in which we think that they can bring in. So really around the newness in Babies R Us, the completion of 140 Sephora shops, having new brands launching into the business, having impulse. So that's really how we see the build.

Speaker 4

In terms of margin, obviously 40 to 50. We just completed the first half of the year up over 50. So we will see some freight moderation that did benefit

Speaker 3

us in the front half. We won't

Speaker 4

have that same benefit into the back half. And then I think that also gives us room to really lean in from promotions where Tom started this call, we do expect it to be highly promotional in the holiday. So we did give ourselves some room from that perspective as well. So that's how the margin plays out. And then from an SG and A perspective, obviously showed some really good disciplines in the front half of the year.

Speaker 4

I think we've proven we have a pretty cost disciplined culture from an expense management perspective. So we'll continue to lean in on that, particularly if we have those softer sales, it will ebb and flow. From a CFPB perspective, I think the way I would contextualize it for you is when we originally guided we said that our other revenue line would be down mid teens for the year and it would be down mid single digits in the front half of the year. We just completed the front half of the year and it was down 5%. And now we said for the full year, it would be down mid single digits.

Speaker 4

So really that differential in the back half, it will be much more in line with the front half. And I think if you do that math, you'll get kind of the impact for the CFPB on the guide that we just updated. So hopefully that hits on your 3 points.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

And we do have another question. We'll go to Oliver Chen at TD Cowen.

Speaker 3

Hi. Thanks a lot, Tom and Jill. On the core apparel footwear and the microscope that you're taking, which issues will be easier to fix in the nearer versus longer term? And on the guidance, Jill, on the raise, what happened regarding the top line and just the mechanics of the guidance in terms of having a softer revenue? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Well, as far as the women's business, I think the junior business will be an easier business to turn around because we can really leverage the marketplace in order to turn it around, because there's a lot of product out there and it's quick turn. So I think the trend business will be the easier piece of it. I think some things like intimate apparel will be harder just because it's a more traditional business and it's really driven by the brands overall. So I think that'll be harder trying to integrate more of the classic brands into the assortment We'll also take a little bit more time rebuilding our petite business. I think that will be something that we can react to fairly quickly because we really went out of that business.

Speaker 2

So I think just rebuilding the inventories, we'll be able to do that. But I think that I think we'll see progress quicker, as I mentioned in juniors plus moving it back and put it in the front of the store. I think that will help a lot overall. Jill?

Speaker 4

Yes. I think in terms of guidance, Oliver, the way I look at it is from a top line perspective, really centering the low end at the actuals that we just produced in the front half of the year. So saying that that would have no trend change from that. And then the upside is really about the build of all the initiatives that we laid out which is where we do have confidence. We continue to see Sephora outperform our expectations.

Speaker 4

It's doing incredibly well. We added another 140 stores. We have a lot of newness happening there as well as learning from our last holiday around gifting and how we can lean into that more to make it even bigger. We have Babies R Us, which just literally set this month, and it really complements that younger customer. They're coming in for product that's complete white space for us.

Speaker 4

So it is a big opportunity for us. And then impulse, we've seen huge success with just bringing in those extra products. It does have a lower AUR drain, but it does have them come in and add that extra item into the basket, which has been a success for us as well. So that will go to another 200 stores. And then just really hitting on some of those areas like Tom mentioned around the fashion elements.

Speaker 4

We're going to have a bigger dress presentation in all stores, really even hitting on holiday dress, which wasn't something that we have typically done in the past, so really helping from a women's perspective. And then new brain introductions across juniors, young men's, women's. So I think that's how I feel good about the top line of it. And then I think we've proven with inventory management since temps come in, we've been able to run the inventory down even more than mid single digits, which has really helped manage the margin, but giving ourselves room to make sure we can be competitive during a very promotional holiday season. And then I think the cost discipline on SG and A makes me we've confidently done that over the last several years, which helps us get to the app margin for the year.

Speaker 4

So I think that's kind of how I looked at from a guidance perspective, really the low end just saying we do nothing different and it stays on trend. So it kind of feels like derisk from that perspective. And then the initiatives can build us back up to the top end.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks. And a follow-up. Are you more concerned on UPTs or traffic and how might that relate to what you're seeing? And second, what changed the most in terms of the health of the consumer, because we've had this choiceful considered mixed consumer when we last spoke as well?

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think the biggest thing we saw, one is what makes me happy is I actually talked about positive transactions. And Oliver, I think that's probably the first time we talked about that in several years. So we're seeing transactions go up and we're seeing conversion go up and that gives us indication that the newness we're bringing in is really resonating with the customer. What we're seeing is that middle income customer that is our core customer continues to be squeezed and I think we've seen that they're being more discerning with what they're purchasing and that has been either less items because of the fact that they're spending some more money on a higher ticket item like a Sephora or they're just spending less in general.

Speaker 4

So I think the pressure from an AUR perspective. Some of the AUR we introduced lower AUR items, home decor lower AUR, impulse lower AUR. So some of it was just as the news came in, it was in that forefront. If we think of what we're introducing in the back half of the year, bringing back fine jewelry into 200 stores, bringing in Babies R Us, like Tom mentioned, gear being a number one seller, those are all going to be higher ticket items. And we're seeing that resonate with the customer.

Speaker 4

We know fine jewelry is something our customer misses. So we just have to really deliver that back for her. So I think that's how we can get back from an AUR perspective. But also expecting that that wall is going to be continue to be pressured and that's why we included the guide that we did for the back half of the year.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you. Best regards.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Oliver.

Operator

We'll take a question from Dana Telsey at Telsey Advisory Group.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning, everyone. Jill, as you mentioned, the conversion and traffic, which is obviously something new. As you think about the Babies R Us and some of the other new partnerships, where do you expect some of the biggest impact to come from? And then Tom, on the category of home, what are you seeing there as opportunities going forward? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Sure. I think for Babies R Us, it did just launch and we are going to be launching a registry to complement that. And I think that happens at the beginning of October. So I do think there's a large opportunity for us really first on that younger customer. I think as we have a registry really having that beginning part of their life cycle from a family perspective, having them come in.

Speaker 4

And early days, we are seeing a nice halo effect to the kids' business. So I think that really just helps us bring extra items into their basket as well from a how can we be more relevant to that customer. And not only do we have gear, we have all of the feeding and toys and accessories as well. So I think those are quick add ons that we can see come into the basket. So I do think Babies R Us could be a larger impact not just for the sale of that product but for the halo that it does for the store.

Speaker 4

But also really as we talked about earlier that Sephora customer was buying kids. So really how to expand them to buy even more across the store and then continue to increase that 35% of attachment higher. And I think Babies R Us can be a key place to do that. I also think some of the newness, Deane, that we've talked about in terms of relevancy of brands and fashion and just going to the market and being much more relevant from that perspective on chasing. So we're really chasing in a reactive way for things that the customer likes is going to be something that continues to benefit us.

Speaker 4

And it's a muscle we're building. So when we do it, it works really well. We just have to do it more broadly and more I think deep in some of the areas that are just getting started and I think that can be a large benefit for us as well. And I would just say I think there's a lot of partnerships that Tom and the merchant teams are out there looking for that we're excited about as well. So I think there's going to be a lot more newness continuing at this store, which I think is important to our customer.

Speaker 2

Yes. As far as the home business goes, I feel very good about the home in terms of the progress the team has made there overall. Home decor has been very good, not only in the seasonal decor, but also in everyday decor. Yes, I'm looking forward to the holiday season. Team has put together an incredible

Speaker 7

holiday

Speaker 2

decor presentation, which will be right in the front of the store as it was last year, but you'll see a significant build in terms of the presentation there overall. The pet business has been extremely strong overall, and we see that building as well. The big issue we have there is we're they have a very large electrics business, which is hurting us. Our bedding business needs to be turned around overall. The wall art business has been good and obviously that's part of the core business, but we're seeing a lot of progress there.

Speaker 2

I feel very good about that. We just have to get over the hurdle of the electrics business and we have to rebuild the bedding business. But in general, I think the team has done a very nice job of repositioning the home business for growth. The other thing that we're excited about is our entire gifting presentation there as well. But again, we look forward to the back half of the year to see some growth there.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, I want to thank everyone for listening on the call today. Have a good day.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Kohl's Q2 2025
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