Essential Utilities Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2024

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jeannie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Essential Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Dingerdissen. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Essential Utilities' Q2 2024 Earnings Call. This is Brian Dingerdissen, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Essential. If you did not receive a copy of the press release, you can find it by visiting the Investor Relations section of our website at essential.co. The slides that we will be referencing and the webcast of this event can also be found on our website. Here is our forward looking statement.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, some of the matters discussed during this call may include forward looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Please refer to our most recent 10 Q, 10 ks and other SEC filings for a description of such risks and uncertainties. During the course of this call, reference may be made to certain non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of any non GAAP to GAAP financial measures is posted in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. We will begin the call today with Chris Franklin, our Chairman and CEO, who will provide an update on the company and then Dan Schuller, our CFO, will provide an overview of our financial results before Chris closes the call.

Speaker 1

With that, I will turn the call over to Chris Franklin.

Speaker 2

Hey, thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Let's start with some highlights from the quarter. First, we posted GAAP earnings of $0.28 per share, which really was a strong result when you consider that weather in Pittsburgh, which is our largest natural gas service area, was about 45% warmer than normal. This, of course, resulted in significant lower gas usage and marks the 2nd year in a row weather has been warmer than normal.

Speaker 2

You'll recall that weather normalization is a key element of our current Peoples rate case in Pennsylvania. In an expression of its confidence in our business plan, our Board voted last week to increase the dividend by 6%, which continues our 33 year track record of annual increases in the dividend. The increase is an expression of our continued commitment to delivering shareholder value both through the dividend and long term stock appreciation. Let me touch on a couple of regulatory developments in Pennsylvania that have occupied our time. First, back in June, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission voted 5-0 to approve a C Motion that initiated some reform of the fair market value statute that was passed back in 2016.

Speaker 2

We see this as a positive step that should moderate purchase prices and rate impacts associated with municipal acquisitions. We also believe the new formula provides a guideline of how much purchase price will be allowed in rates, and we think it still promotes consolidation in the industry to fair balance. We appreciate the commissioner's work on this important statute that helps consolidate a fragmented industry, and I believe it will provide a much greater certainty in the closing of transactions. Now secondly and importantly, we reached a non unanimous settlement on our Peoples rate case in Pennsylvania. And then recently, the administrative law judge issued a strong recommended decision in line with that settlement, which includes the important weather normalization.

Speaker 2

The commission is expected to consider the matter and finalize an order in September. And the 3rd matter on the regulatory side is our filing back in May of the Pennsylvania water rate case. Our filing is nearly 3 years after the prior case, and we're requesting an overall rate increase of $126,700,000 for water and wastewater. Dan will have a little more detail on that in just a moment. Now before I talk about operations, I want to mention that the Commonwealth Court, which is a state court in Pennsylvania, did render a decision on DelCorra in early June and our legal interpretation of that decision indicates continued support of the legally binding asset purchase agreement between Aqua and Delcura.

Speaker 2

All right. Let's talk about operations for a moment. You may have followed the events around Hurricane Burrell. This is the large hurricane that hit Houston, Texas back on July 8. We initially had nearly 90 water and wastewater systems without service, largely due to power outages.

Speaker 2

With considerable help from mobile generators, we had many customers restored very quickly and all customers restored within 3 days. I have to congratulate our team. They did an outstanding job in restoring service after the storm and they were well prepared for the next storm should it come this year as well. And by the way, our new outage map is available to customers and proved very helpful during the storm in Texas. Now shifting to capital.

Speaker 2

We're on track to invest $1,300,000,000 to $1,400,000,000 this year to improve critical infrastructure across the company's water and natural gas platform. To help fund those improvements, we continue to seek low interest loans to help keep our rates affordable. In the last 3 years, Essential has received approval for approximately $133,000,000 in the form of 0% or low interest loans and approximately $59,000,000 in the form of grants to fund projects like the PFAS mitigation that's required by the U. S. EPA.

Speaker 2

But we recognize that neither the company or our customers put PFAS in the water, and we continue to focus on opportunities to mitigate the cost impact for our customers. This is all in addition to the work we've done in suing the polluters. We still expect to recover about $100,000,000 from the settlement of those lawsuits. You might recall that we have over 280 water systems that need PFAS mitigation and we provided an estimate of approximately $450,000,000 to complete this work. We remain on schedule to complete that mitigation by the deadline set by the federal government.

Speaker 2

If you look at the next slide here, you may have heard that Infrastructure Week took place back in mid May. We took time that week to celebrate our construction and field teams for the great work they do every day. I'll remind you that we've invested over $4,000,000,000 in infrastructure since 2020 and it's having a real impact on the communities we serve. In 2024 alone, we expect to replace over 300 miles of aged water and gas pipelines, providing even more reliability and resilient service to our customers. And of course, the plant work we do is to ensure our water is clean and safe from contaminants like PFAS and lead among many others.

Speaker 2

We were fortunate this year again to be included as is the 2nd consecutive year on USA TODAY's prestigious list of America's Climate Leaders. The list identifies U. S. Companies demonstrating the most substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over a 2 year period. This recognition highlights Essential's significant progress in reductions achieved between 2020 2022.

Speaker 2

Speaking of environmental impact, our gas team continues to pursue opportunities to further reduce the company's carbon footprint. We recently announced an exciting hydrogen partnership with H Quest, an energy technology startup and the University of Pittsburgh. The demonstration project creates 0 emission hydrogen energy directly from natural gas. Peoples then blends the hydrogen with natural gas to assess impacts on pipeline operations and various home appliances. Again, this is a demonstration project and we do not currently inject hydrogen into the distribution lines that serve our customers.

Speaker 2

All right. With that, let me turn it over to Dan to discuss the financials and regulatory matters. Dan?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. On this first slide, let's talk high level and then we'll get into the details on the waterfall. Operating revenues were down due to the decline in natural gas commodity prices year over year, which positively impacted our customers' bill and due to weather, which was warmer than normal for the natural gas business as compared to the prior year. In fact, as Chris mentioned, Pittsburgh was 44% warmer than normal for the quarter and it's been 20% warmer than normal for the year so far. We also experienced lower water consumption in the Q2 than we did last year.

Speaker 3

While we continue our focus on managing O and M expenses, the quarterly O and M shows an increase due to a few one time factors, which I will cover on the waterfall. However, I will note that year to date, O and M expenses are up a reasonable 2.9%. We achieved EPS of $0.28 for the quarter. Last year's 2nd quarter was especially strong given higher than budgeted water volume, some one time credits in O and M and the impact of the natural gas safe harbor rule. We remain on track relative to our stated EPS guidance range when normalizing for weather and excluding the substantial gain on sale from the energy project sale.

Speaker 3

Next, let's walk through the 2nd quarter waterfalls. On slide 9, we have the revenue waterfall for the quarter. Moving left to right, we have rate increases and surcharges of over $18,000,000 with about $15,000,000 of that coming from water and $3,000,000 from gas. Acquisitions and organic growth in the water business contributed $3,000,000 and then decreases due to lower volumes in both water and gas as well as the impact of the purchased gas costs. You may have experienced or noticed the excessively warm weather in June in the Mid Atlantic, including here in Pennsylvania.

Speaker 3

This generally means higher water volumes due to irrigation. Given the meter read cycle, however, we didn't see the impact of this in our second quarter results, but we do expect to see this impact on our Aqua Pennsylvania results in July and thus in the Q3. A few other states, Texas, Ohio and Illinois, also had lower water consumption compared to a particularly strong quarter last year. Let's talk about the natural gas business for a moment. Through May, each of the months this year has been warmer than normal and this has had a real impact on our financial results.

Speaker 3

This is exactly why we asked for a weather normalization adjustment in our ongoing Peoples rate case and why we're encouraged that it's included in the recommended decision that will be considered by the PUC commissioners. Next, let's take a look at O and M on Slide 10. O and M increased $9,000,000 year over year for the Q2. We saw approximately $1,000,000 in increases in production costs and employee related expenses combined, which I believe shows that we're through the extraordinary inflation period that everyone's experienced over the past few years. Next, we had an expected increase of $1,300,000 in operating expenses from newly acquired systems in our Regulated Water segment.

Speaker 3

The larger increases include additional costs from the Gas segment Universal Services rider, which is recoverable through a revenue surcharge, as well as higher other expenses. The customer service rider was actually a credit last year due to over collection that occurred as gas costs fell more quickly than rates could be adjusted. Thus, the difference between that credit last year and the expense this year is reflected in the $2,600,000 increase on the O and M waterfall. The $5,100,000 other includes a number of items, but last year we had some lower maintenance and insurance expenses in the regulated water segment and this year was more normal. Additionally, we experienced lower capitalization in the Regulated Gas segment this quarter due to lower capital and direct spend, most of which should reverse later in the year.

Speaker 3

This resulted in O and M that was up from last year, but for the year, we expect a positive story here. As noted earlier, O and M is up 2.9% year to date, which is in line with our historic norms. Next, let's look at the EPS waterfall on slide 11. Starting on the left of the EPS waterfall with $0.34 from last year, the next thing we see is the nearly $0.05 increase from regulatory recoveries and $0.05 from growth in the water business. These were offset by the increase in expenses, decreases in volumes of both water and gas, and the impact of the other category.

Speaker 3

The other category here includes increases in depreciation, interest, taxes other than income taxes, and income taxes due to the lower repair benefits. The lower repair benefits are the result of the timing of the natural gas safe harbor release last year, which resulted in recording both the Q1 and Q2 benefits in the second quarter. The $0.28 EPS outcome depicted here would be more than $0.02 higher if we had the weather normalization as included in the recommended decision. When we provided guidance in February, we indicated that, presuming normal weather, we would have 20.24 EPS of $1.96 to $2 excluding the gain on sale of the energy project. Unfortunately, warmer than normal weather has significantly impacted the regulated natural gas operating results in both Q1 and Q2.

Speaker 3

So to better clarify our expected earnings versus guidance, if we take our anticipated full year reported GAAP EPS and we remove the $0.24 gain from the energy project sale and then we add back about $0.08 due to warmer than normal weather to date, we would meet that target range. Of course, this presumes normal weather from here forward through 2024. In conclusion, the story of the quarter includes unfavorable weather related impacts for both water and gas and difficult O and M comparisons to last year. But the story for the year remains unchanged and we continue to see the merits of our long term strategy of providing service to our customers across our platform, investing in needed capital improvement, managing our day to day O and M expenses and maintaining our regulatory relations to deliver long term shareholder value. Before moving to regulatory recoveries, I do want to mention that we still intend to issue $250,000,000 of equity this year through our ATM program.

Speaker 3

Next, let's move to slide 12 to provide an update on regulatory activity. This slide highlights our regulatory activity during this busy year so far. We continue to manage our regulatory activity to maintain safe and reliable service, earn a fair return on the capital we invest and minimize regulatory lag, while always considering affordability for our customers. As Chris mentioned, part of this is pursuing low interest loans and grants wherever possible across our footprint. Thus far, we've received authorization to increase Water segment revenues by 25 $800,000 annually in Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Speaker 3

And the Kentucky and Pennsylvania Gas Business have surcharges that will increase revenues by $2,000,000 annually. We have significant water segment rate cases or surcharges pending in Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia to total $169,900,000 A detail of these can be found in the appendix. This includes the Pennsylvania water rate case, which we filed on May 23, nearly 3 years since we last filed. This case, while significant, is largely a capital case and is proceeding as we would expect. We're in the discovery phase now.

Speaker 3

We've got evidentiary hearings that are slated for October, and we expect a commission order in February. As Chris mentioned, we're optimistic about the progress of our PNG rate case, with the ALJ issuing a strong recommended decision in line with the non unanimous settlement that was previously reached. We expect this case to be on the PUC agenda in September with rates effective September 27. And as noted, the recommended decision includes the weather normalization mechanism that would greatly reduce weather related volatility going forward. And with that, I'll hand the mic back to Chris.

Speaker 3

Chris? Thanks, Dan.

Speaker 2

Let's touch on municipal acquisition program for a couple of minutes. As of this call, we have 6 signed asset purchase agreements in 2 states and we have existing water and wastewater operations in both of those states. These acquisitions will add over 215,000 customer equivalents and total approximately $385,000,000 in purchase price. Now let me note that over $100,000,000 of that rate base is from deals that are not Delcora. We continue to see a strong and healthy pipeline of opportunities for additional growth.

Speaker 2

And as I've said many times before, our pipeline is more than 400,000 potential water and wastewater customers and we are having active discussions with all of those. As I said before as well, with Chairman DeFrank's C Motion approved by the Public Utility Commission in Pennsylvania, we are optimistic that there should be a much clearer path to closing municipal acquisitions in Pennsylvania in the future. In addition, with the recently published EPA rules regarding PFAS, which includes a timeline for compliance, we expect to see an increase in the number of opportunities, which should help further consolidate the water space in addition to mitigating the PFOS problem. All right. So in closing, let's review the guidance we provided in February and then update it in May and we'll reaffirm it today.

Speaker 2

In February, we provided guidance for 20.24 net income per share to be $1.96 to $2 Now on a GAAP basis, we anticipated exceeding this 2024 guidance as a result of the gain on sale of the energy plant assets. We mentioned the impact of warmer than normal weather a few times on this call that resulted in lower regulated natural gas operating revenues for the year to date. Through 2028, we plan to invest approximately $7,200,000,000 in regulated infrastructure on existing utilities. In 2024, we expect to invest between $1,300,000,000 $1,400,000,000 and we'll stay on track for this and we are on track so far already spending $548,900,000 year to date. Based on this investment, we expect rate base to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of approximately 8% for water and approximately 10% for natural gas through 2028.

Speaker 2

And the combined utility rate base will grow at a compounded annual growth rate of over 8%. We continue to expect that together organic customer growth and growth from acquisitions for water and wastewater will continue at a rate of 2% to 3% per year on average. Remind investors that growth from acquisitions are lumpy and should be viewed over a 3 year average. We expect continued stability in our natural gas customer base. We mentioned before that we expect to raise approximately $250,000,000 in 2024 using our ATM equity program.

Speaker 2

We remain committed to reducing Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2,035, and that's from a 2019 baseline. As you know, we've already made significant progress, and we estimate that we are over 25% as of the year end 2023. With that, I'll conclude my formal remarks and we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. Your first question comes from the line of Ryan Connors with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Yes, so I want to start on, Chris, you mentioned the C Motion and the PUC reform on Act 12. On the separate parallel track of that, which I know there's some legislation out there that would actually make some legislative change and including, I guess, there's talk of even a repeal of Act 12.

Speaker 4

Does the PUC reform process kind of stall that and for now or are those things still are those efforts still ongoing legislatively?

Speaker 2

Yes, Ryan. It's a great question. And I think we made tremendous progress with the C Motion. Chairman DeFrank really showed real leadership in the commission in getting that through. But I don't think it deters the legislative action.

Speaker 2

Just given the schedule in Pennsylvania, the election and the short schedule in the fall, not even sure that the House will come back in session in the fall. I'm not overly optimistic that something could pass this fall. What I would say is there's not an appetite when you look at the full House and Senate to pass a repeal of Act 12. And so, I would say there's probably opportunity to get a compromise bill that has some of the things that you see in the Sea Motion codified and maybe a couple of other things. When I think about opportunities, I think about a greater definition or guardrails around affirmative public benefit.

Speaker 3

And I

Speaker 2

think if we could get some of those things done with some of the folks that want reform, I think there's an opportunity to get real progress accomplished. But I remain confident that we don't have the votes in the particularly in the Senate to repeal Act 12 at this point in time.

Speaker 4

Yes. Okay. That's fair. Now on the Pennsylvania rate case, I know that there's not a whole lot you can say, it's a pending matter. But in other recent cases in Pennsylvania, we've seen where very significant turnout and so forth at some of these public hearings has been kind of an early indicator of some issues in some cases.

Speaker 4

I mean, I know your public hearing cases input hearings are ongoing, I think this week and next. Any early read from your team about what's coming out of those public input hearings? Any surprises? Anything that would give you any concern as it relates to the public feedback?

Speaker 3

Yes. So

Speaker 2

far, we've not seen anything that would surprise us or particularly come to concern. Let's not, I'm always empathetic to customers who are concerned about rising bills. It's a continuous discussion internally here on affordability. And so I have great empathy for folks and we're going to do everything we can to try to accomplish the mission and do it at the most affordable levels. And I know I saw you at one of the hearings too, Ryan.

Speaker 2

I try to get out personally. I want to hear from personally. So I sat in the back of the room yesterday and listened to some of the comments. But the good news is there really wasn't anything about service or reliability or the core capabilities that we provide to our customers in terms of water and wastewater service in this instance. And so, listen, we'll continue to listen and react appropriately, but nothing has been surprising to this point.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. And then just one last one, a housekeeping, maybe Dan, on the tax rate. I mean, I know there's been noise, as you said, in the timing of the repair benefits. Anything, any directional help you can give us for the balance of the year modeling on the income tax line?

Speaker 3

Yes, a little bit for Ryan. So we still anticipate that we'll have a slightly negative ETR at the end of the year. So think like single digit negative ETR for 2024. And then as we think ahead to 2025, I think that probably getting a little more toward breakeven.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks for your time.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Ryan. Take care.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, Durgesh. Good morning, Durgesh.

Speaker 6

Hey, team. Good morning. Thank you for giving me time. Just, Chris, wanted to get your thoughts on the PFAS program that you have in place. Just a Supreme Court decision since the last time we spoke, how does that change things, if any?

Speaker 2

Yes. We it's a good question, Durgesh. So we've been in communication with the commissions that oversee the states where we have the majority of the work to do. And what we're hearing from our regulators is, we'll get this thing done and focus on the PBOS mitigation, focus on the current levels and that's exactly what we're doing. So we're full speed ahead.

Speaker 2

We remain with an estimate of about $450,000,000 to do our work, our 2 80 systems as I said in the formal remarks. But I think importantly, when we're getting the right signals from leadership at the commissions, then we have high confidence that not only will we accomplish the task of mitigation, but that we'll get recovery in the appropriate level in rates, once the work is done. So we're full speed ahead.

Speaker 6

Got it. Sounds like the commissions in different states are driving this and so no changes there. Thank you. A couple modeling questions for Dan. Just Dan, can you remind us or tell us if you have issued any equity so far versus the $250,000,000 target?

Speaker 6

That's 1. And then just second, as we think about balance of the year, I think you mentioned that we'll see some weather benefit in Q3 in Pennsylvania,

Speaker 3

but then you said other states

Speaker 6

were lower relative to in terms of sales or weather wise relative to last year. Can you just sort of talk in terms of guidance Q3 so far? Is it positive from a weather standpoint relative to guidance relative to normal? Or is that still a headwind? Those two questions, please.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, certainly. Let's start with the weather first, Durgesh. So we are seeing in July or July numbers not fully baked yet, but we are seeing some positive benefits from weather as we anticipated for July. Now 1st portion of the year, we were behind a little bit on weather. So this helps us catch up if not getting a little bit ahead.

Speaker 3

And then in terms of your question regarding equity, so we're just in the process now. We'll stand up that ATM next week. You might have looked and not seen a filing for that yet. And just given the fact that we didn't immediately need the cash and for much of the time between our last earnings call and this earnings call, our stock was kind of at a depressed price. We weren't really in a hurry to issue equity.

Speaker 3

But we will get started on that shortly here and still look to issue, as I said in the prepared remarks, about $250,000,000 through the balance of the year.

Speaker 6

Perfect. That's really all I had. Thank you guys again.

Speaker 3

Take care, Prakash.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Golar with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Let's start on DelCora, some good news there obviously. Just wondering what the next steps for you, if any, might be? Or are we kind of still in just a waiting mode?

Speaker 2

Well, we continue to have ongoing conversations with the county. And I think we're all watching carefully to see what it looks like there in terms of their budget this year. As you might recall, last year they had raised taxes about 5%. There is some public discussion about having to raise taxes again this year. We think we should be part of that conversation because certainly the sale of DelCora would raise them more than they would need coming from tax increases.

Speaker 2

And our modeling continues to show that even despite some reduced capital spending they plan, we would still have lower rates. And in our model, we're showing a 2% annual increase over a decade. And so really strong outcomes for the county. So we still think we have a pretty compelling case and maybe even more compelling as they come into budget season here in the next 6 weeks. So you have that aspect of it, so that conversation is going on.

Speaker 2

And then we still have the federal bankruptcy court judge who is dealing with the bankruptcy of the City of Chester who has to stay on all progress at this point. So we continue to wait for an appeal there and we're hopeful that that stay is lifted sometime in the relatively near future. And then if that were to occur, it would immediately then start right back at the Public Utility Commission in Pennsylvania. And I'm optimistic about proceeding there. So I can't put a timeline to it, but we our guidance has been estimated by mid year 2025 or mid year 2024 here.

Speaker 2

So we still think we have a shot at that should something break loose here soon.

Speaker 7

That's good. And then in terms of the second half of the year, I noticed here in 2Q estimates were somewhat all over the map. And I know you've got a rate case coming up that's going to be settled soon on the gas side. Just wondering what you're seeing in terms of cadence or what people should expect in terms of earnings cadence 3Q and 4Q, particularly given the commentary that was just offered on positive weather impacts here in the Q3?

Speaker 3

Yes. Happy to do that, Michael. So when we think about the our forecast versus consensus, we would say that consensus for the Q3 is high and consensus for the Q4 is low. So as you think about refinements to your models, let me give you a couple of pointers here. For Q3 2023, that included an extra $0.085 of earnings from the gas repair safe harbor rules.

Speaker 3

So that's if you're building off the 2023 reported $0.30 for the Q3, you'd be too high. So keep in mind that this quarter will not yet have the impact of the pending gas rate case And we've also got another year of lag on the water side relative to where we were last year. Now weather looks good so far on the water side, but as you know the impact of weather on water is not as extreme as it is on the gas side.

Speaker 7

Understood.

Speaker 3

Let me touch on Q4 if I could, Michael, real quick. Sure. Q4 by comparison, we think about Q4 as I said, the Q4 estimates are light. And if you're light, you might not be accurately reflecting the benefits of the pending rate case in gas. And also if you're building off the Q4 for 2023, you want to keep in mind that last year the reported $0.50 was weakened by warmer than normal weather in December and a one time tax charge that had an impact of about $0.608 in the Q4 last year.

Speaker 3

So those items should be helpful as we think about the balance of the year. And as we've said, we expect to be in the $1.96 to $2 range on a weather normalized basis once we exclude the impact of the energy project sale.

Speaker 7

Very helpful. Thank you, Dan. And then I'll slip just one more in. 10 Q filing, today, tomorrow?

Speaker 3

Today or tomorrow. I think that's that. Think about it that way, Michael. All right. Thank you, John.

Speaker 3

You'll see it soon. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Reeder with Wells Fargo. Please go

Speaker 2

ahead. Hey, Jonathan. Good morning, Jonathan.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Chris and Dan. How are you all?

Speaker 5

Well, thanks. Good. Wanted to get your thoughts or maybe what went on in the Board's decision this year to only increase the dividend 6%. I know it breaks the streak of doing 7% going back to like 2017.

Speaker 3

Yes. So our dividend payout ratio as you've seen has been fully increasing and our stated objective is to keep the dividend payout ratio below 65%. So we set our dividend growth rate at 6% this year really to moderate the increase in that payout ratio. It's really that simple.

Speaker 5

Okay. So now the payout ratio is kind of where it needs to be or where you're targeting. And then if we're thinking about the going forward rate, you'd be likely increasing the dividend commensurate with, I guess, the EPS growth. Is that fair?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, as you know, we make this decision 1 year at a time, but we'll continue to think in those terms.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then just kind of sorry, were you going to say something, Chris?

Speaker 2

No. Okay.

Speaker 5

I didn't want to cut you off. So just clarifying something, estimated $0.08 weather headwind year to date, is that also including the lower volumes of the water segment? Or is that just purely the gas?

Speaker 3

No, that's purely the gas. And maybe that's something we could be more clear on in the future. But we haven't talked much about weather impacts on the water side. On the water side, if we thought just about the quarter, water consumption probably is about 0.5 dollars impact for the quarter. Whereas on the gas side, I think $0.08 year to date for an impact and about $0.03 for the quarter.

Speaker 5

Got it. Okay. So then, the lower water volumes and revenues that you talked about, I mean, that's just exclusively due to that meter recycle? Or is there something else?

Speaker 3

I think it's we just had lower water sales through the 1st part of the year in a number of our states. Specifically what I mentioned in the prepared remarks were that in Pennsylvania in the back half of June, we had very hot dry weather

Speaker 2

and we

Speaker 3

would have presumed to see a bump in revenue. We certainly saw a bump in that month in terms of our send out from our plants. But the way the meter read cycle works is the back half of the month ends up being primarily estimated. So you pick up that revenue in the subsequent months. So in July and our numbers for July for Pennsylvania, they do reflect that pickup from the back half of June.

Speaker 5

Okay. So then that like $0.025 difference between Q3 or sorry, Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 should reverse largely?

Speaker 3

Yes. I hate to speak that specifically on it. But I would say if we look at our comparison to last year as you saw, we had a pretty stark comparison of water revenue. The water volumes relative to last year had a $9,700,000 impact. But last year what I'd say is water volumes were significantly ahead of budget or normal, whereas this year we've been a bit below.

Speaker 3

Okay. Now I'm just yes,

Speaker 5

trying to get if that's because of this, the meter cycle or if it's actually underlying usage because I know you and American Water Works don't serve the same territories, but they were kind of talking the opposite direction saying the anticipated declines in usage from those elevated levels in 2023, the anticipated decline in usage weren't as great as they were thinking they would be in 2024.

Speaker 3

Yes. That sounds like that is the result for them. But in our case, I'd say we had significantly higher water sales last year relative to budget and somewhat lower sales this year relative to budget.

Speaker 5

Okay. And those are not really necessarily weather influenced, I guess?

Speaker 3

Well, and I would say last year we saw a significant influence in a couple of states that including states they're not in like Texas, for example.

Speaker 2

Yes. Okay.

Speaker 5

All right. Thanks for bearing with me there and giving me the additional detail.

Speaker 3

No problem. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Davis Sunderland with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Davis. Hey, Davis.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Chris. Good morning, Dan. Thanks for taking the time guys. I appreciate it. 2 from me, both on the M and A pipeline.

Speaker 8

And actually the first one, just a quick one. Chris, since the C Motion earlier in the quarter, have you seen any change in or any uptick maybe in M and A activity? Or now that there's a bit more certainty or I guess maybe a level playing field is the right way to say it or just a broader understanding there. Have you seen any change to that pipeline?

Speaker 2

It's hard to say because it's been so soon whether there's a change in the pipeline. But what I would say is there's a lot of discussion with municipals trying to understand the new rules. And so what I would expect to see is once the this RRR, which is this guideline that they're going to issue in the coming days here, once that's issued, I would expect municipal to start doing the math and say, okay, if I take depreciated original cost and I look at the multiple, how do I think about that? Is that fair or not? I'd like to think that they will think it's fair.

Speaker 2

It's not going to be certainly excessive as some were before, but I think they'll see it as fair. And I think that will begin to initiate even more conversations once that's issued. That's coming in the coming days here.

Speaker 8

That makes sense. And yes, super early. So thank you for those comments. And then maybe just secondly, a few peers in the industry have talked about maybe seeing some softening of sellers' expectations as it relates to valuations for their systems and maybe some of this is due to realizing PFAS is going to be really expensive or otherwise. But maybe any thoughts on what you guys are seeing in this regard for M and A in your guys' jurisdictions?

Speaker 2

And are you speaking specifically about municipals at this point or just generally?

Speaker 8

Generally speaking, but I guess thoughts on municipals would be helpful too.

Speaker 2

Yes. I do think that that's also ramping up. And of course, those are conversations that we're having directly with municipals in terms of what they're facing and the levels of contamination they're seeing and then how they go about it. And once those costs start to become real to them, I think they'll start to look at, in many cases, look at optionality. And I would expect those conversations to be had really in this year.

Speaker 2

I don't think this Supreme Court issue really impacts them. I think people will look to comply.

Speaker 8

That makes sense. That's helpful. Thanks for the time guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Take care.

Operator

That concludes our Q and A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Chris Franklin for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you and thank you all for joining us. As you know, we're always available, Dan, Brian, myself, make ourselves available if there are any follow-up questions, but really appreciate you joining us today. Thanks again.

Operator

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Essential Utilities Q2 2024
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