AngloGold Ashanti H1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti H1 20 24 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions later during the conference. Please note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stuart Bailey.

Operator

Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much, Danae, and welcome everybody to AngloGold Ashanti's First Half twenty twenty four results. As always, Alberto and Gillian will cover the material in the call and you've got other members of the executive leadership team to take your questions. Before we go into the presentation, I would invite you to look at the Safe Harbor statement at the front end of the presentation deck that contains important information regarding forward looking statements and we do encourage you to study it when you have a moment. Without any further ado, I'll hand over Talbert.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Stuart. Before we go to the numbers, I'll start with safety. After 3 years with no fatalities at our managed operations, we received a tragic reminder in May that we're only as good as our last day with no serious injury. Obit Cagliwa, a colleague and father of 3 who worked for a drilling contractor at Gaeta lost his life with a light motor vehicle he was driving overturned after he lost control driving down a steep hill. Marcelo Godoy, our CTO completed an Our thoughts are with Obed's family and loved ones as we mourn his loss.

Speaker 2

I have led a series of town hall meetings across our business over the past few weeks reflecting on the learnings from this strategy and leading a campaign to ensure continuous focus on the very few critical controls needed to eliminate what we call high consequence low frequency events like this one. We continue to invest considerable resources in understanding the root causes of all accidents, including high potential incidents or near misses in order to prevent recurrences. This process is a strong indicator of the strength of our safety culture and the effectiveness of our systems and provides a good foundation on which to continue working to realize our ultimate goal of 0 harm. Next slide. Before we turn to the numbers in detail, I'm very pleased to report a strong operating and financial results for the half year.

Speaker 2

These results show the hard work that has been done by so many to improve the fundamentals of our business to drive productivity benefits and to manage costs. Most of our Tier 1 assets recorded a solid performance driven both by higher tons and higher grades mined. At the Tier 2 minutees, we continue to drive full potential initiatives to enhance asset performance. Now that we are well into the full potential execution, we have seen our costs trend lower. We will talk about that later.

Speaker 2

We are the only gold major that has reported so far to post an improvement in cash costs at the half. That means that we're able to capture the benefit of stronger gold prices. Revenues up more than $400,000,000 on year, all of which has flowed directly into the bottom line. We are building a strong operating momentum into the second half, when we expect to deliver not only further production and cost improvements, but significantly stronger cash flows. So to go into the numbers, production was up 2% year on year driven by strong performance from our key assets.

Speaker 2

That result was significantly aided by a strong Q2 where production was 12% higher versus the Q1. This was driven by Australia strong improvements following the biblical flooding in March and Seguity bouncing back from the recovery challenges that hurt Q1 production. Brazil's turnaround is a clear highlight with a cash flow turnaround that was barely imaginable a year ago. Our cash costs were 1%, lower year on year as I mentioned a moment ago. This is not luck.

Speaker 2

In fact, the improvement was achieved despite the stiff headwinds we faced in Australia and Guinea in Q1 and it is a testament to our full asset potential program, which is yielding much of the benefit we expected. And we believe more is yet to come. On the back of these production and cost improvements, we are starting to see the leverage to a higher gold price that has been so rare across the sector during previous up cycles in the gold market. We reported a 65% increase in EBITDA to EUR 1,120,000,000 dollars and more importantly a swing of more than $400,000,000 term in free cash flow, which came in at 206 versus an outflow of 205,000,000 last year. This was well up ahead of the higher price due to improvements in both ounces sold and costs.

Speaker 2

Most encouraging is that we anticipate a stronger second half. With that in mind, we have declared a dividend that reflects that confidence. Julian will cover that in more detail, but it is clear that we have the conviction of the consistency of our operating performance and a commitment to ensure shareholders see improved returns. This of course underpinned by confidence in our balance sheet. Liquidity is very strong, gearing is low even while we invest in our existing portfolio and growth pipeline and we are well on track to achieve guidance.

Speaker 2

As I said in May, we were focused during Q2 on recovering from the obvious Q1 challenges that caused us significant ounces in Australia and Guinea. You can hear You can see the extent of the flooding that hit our Australian operations in March. Pits and infrastructure were flooded at Tropicana and crucially the 400 kilometer access road to this remote site had significant stretches underwater. This took some time to dry and cure sufficiently before it could reopen. Remedial works were completed in Q2 and we started restarted operations successfully.

Speaker 2

This in turn saw improved production at both sides, although ongoing rainfall during Q2 costs intermittent interruption to our supply lines into Tropicana, sometimes hampering our ability to restock consumables and other important items. Nonetheless, we expect to

Speaker 3

recover a significant portion of the

Speaker 2

lost production in the second half. Low digger availabilities, poor availability of spares and most of all, low digger availabilities, poor availability of spares and most of all the steep drop in recoveries. We have improved maintenance, addressed spare inventories and saw 38% bump in our tons in Q2. A new excavator has also been delivered, which will help us to continue that improving trajectory in Q2. Metallurgical recovery stabilized at around 87% in Q2, up from the low 70s in Q1.

Speaker 2

In fact, we have seen average recoveries above 90% in July. We're looking at the work that can be done to improve carbon management and oxygen efficiency in the plant, which will help maintain and potentially improve these strong recoveries even when reintroduce the challenging BD ore to the plant. The good news is that we're in no rush to do that given the ability to source ore from alternative pits, So we may only need that between the ore in 2026 and we will then be well prepared to process it. Brazil picture, it's probably not even us probably would have imagined such a turnaround. It's hard to overstate it, what has happened in the past 12 months under the new leadership we appointed last year.

Speaker 2

The team delivered a 15% year on year increase in gold production in H1, a 19% reduction in cash costs year on year. The free cash outflow of $114,000,000 during the first half of last year, which hammered our half year result has turned into a $53,000,000 inflow during the first half of this year. As you can see on the waterfall, this was not simply a gold price story, but rather was driven by the controllable factors which we manage across the business. More extraordinary is that this cash flow result was achieved under the weight of a roughly $200 ounce discount for every ounce of concentrate we sold from Cuyaba, while the Quiros plant has been suspended. The very good news is that the path is now clear to restart that facility during the second half, which will allow us to resume refined gold production and start to recapture the full margin once again.

Speaker 2

Obolasi's Q2 production was a steady 54,000 ounces. The V30 reamer continues to work as expected, helping to safely push underground ore volumes from the large open stopes. We've seen better results with 4 tons in Q2 averaging around 97,000 per month, 6% up in Q1. If you compare H1 2023 to H1 2024 we're up 12%. We are however experiencing some challenges in Block 8, a very mature block with fewer suitable working areas, more congestion and hence less flexibility than we'd like to have and probably with significant volatility in its grade in this last part of Block 8.

Speaker 2

That impacted mine grade particularly during April May the zones that we were mining. We did however reach equivalent annualized production of 300,000 in June and are on track to surpass that this month. Consequently, we expect to reach a production for the year around the lower end of guidance. We also anticipate and this is probably the most important thing, strong cash generation from our Boasi during this ramp up, a solid cash free cash for the year, probably surpassing $80,000,000 demonstrating a very strong cash flow potential. As I've said before, the real price that is coming relatively soon lies on the higher grade Block 10.

Speaker 2

This is virgin ground with average grades above 8. In addition, in later years there is Block 11 with grades above 17 grams to provide another kicker. A critical path to bring Block 10 into production is getting ventilation infrastructure into the right place, which we expect towards the Q2 of next year. We'll see that in the next slide. This will allow us to ramp up Block 10 and also to bring in Block 1, getting us comfortably over 300,000 ounces next year.

Speaker 2

Turning to the trial of the underhand drift and field mining method, this has gone to plan. The concept is proven in the trial area with pay strength good and curing time down to 14 days. We will continue to ramp this over the rest of this year as we establish a new full scale site in Block 8 Lower. So Phase 3 of our project of construction project achieved 89% of overall completion by the end of Q2, 2024. Dewatering has been completed to the shaft bottom and construction has started on the dam and pump station building.

Speaker 2

The settlement of the project is expected to add another 6,000 tons per day hoisting capacity for the mine. Refurbishment of the KMS shaft is on track for completion by the end of 2024 and the AddEX flexibility a significant benefit. At the same time, the KMS V S Vanshaft will allow us to ramp up volumes from Block 10. More specifically, we will be able to develop several mining fronts on Block 10 and 1 which will help optimize the significant infrastructure we will have ready and hence surpass the 400,000 level we have spoken in the past. We plan to host a site visit to Obuasi ahead of next year's Indaba where we'll be able to showcase the huge strides made in infrastructure development that will enable this access to the mining areas and we will also provide an expected ramp up during the next 5 years of Obuasi.

Speaker 2

Full asset potential continues to yield results across the portfolio. At Sunrise Dam, despite the weather challenges in Q1, underground tons in Q2 stepped back up at around 220,000 per month. The better haulage performance was underpinned by improvements in stope availability and fleet utilization. We'll look to sustain these levels in 2024 thereafter drive the next step changes to the FOCUS asset performance target. We have completed all of our assets and are now starting a second wave of FAP starting again with Sunrise where we have already identified more than EUR 100,000,000 dollars of potential benefits.

Speaker 2

Pulasen potential will continue to be at the heart of our improvements in productivity and hence reductions in our cash costs. As I showed earlier, recoveries at Segueli are up after interventions in Q1. We have excluded Bighini ore from the blend and ore is being sourced from alternative deposits stabilizing plant performance. We will look to make low CapEx modifications to the plant with a specific focus on management of carbon and oxygen levels. Iduprene continues to perform very well.

Speaker 2

We've driven improvements in drill and blast as well as processes to get better fragmentation. We've optimized the load and hold process to get better ore delivery to the plant and we've sharpened our maintenance practices to achieve better overall equipment availability. At Gaeta, underground, ore tonnes from Nyakanga are ahead of our full asset potential targets. We're delivering backfill directly to stopes via drills from surface rather than using trucks. This in turn has debottlenecked our underground materials handling capacity and improved overall stope availability.

Speaker 2

Apart from the benefits in the incremental EBITDA we've been able to generate, the true value of this program goes beyond dollars and ounces. Over the past 2 years, the full asset potential program has given us significantly more resilience to help offset inflation and counter that impact of production interruptions across our portfolio. I'll tell you the same thing that I tell our employees and my board, which is that the proof is in the numbers. The proof is in the bottom line. It's our ability to meet and to sustain and improve bottom line that matters, improvements in bottom line and that's what this is, €464,000,000 of improvements of incremental EBITDA in the past 3 years.

Speaker 2

Regarding the future, we have a strong pipeline of organic options. We are executing on Obuasi that will give us additional medium term ounces. Nevada is a game changer and we'll talk more about it now. We see the region producing as many as 500,000 ounces of our multiyear period at Tier 1 costs and longer term we have a world class copper gold deposit in Quebradona which gives us optionality and exposure to the energy transition. This is I think a very nice graph and this is different.

Speaker 2

We put new information. It continues Merlin continues to deliver strong assay results further supporting this is a high grade world class ore body. In this section you can see the extent and size of the deposit along with some very exciting new intercepts, which continue to upgrade the quality of this impressive ore body. 66,000 meters, 66 kilometers of mainly infield drilling were completing during the first half. You will obviously look through this cross section in your own time, but I'd just like to highlight some of the high grade intercepts over significant widths.

Speaker 2

So you can see there are 144 meters at 10.53 grams per ton. You can see 30.4 meters at 8.53, you can see 190 meters at 5.2, you can see 160 meters at 5.85, you can see 50 meters at 3.9. So it is all of this has all of the signs of 1 of the truly Tier 1 deposits in North America. The PFS program to expand silicon is expected to be completed by mid-twenty 25 at New North Bullfrog where permitting is underway engineering reached the 30% completion milestone in Q2, 2024 in line with the planned engineering schedule and we will continue to provide further updates in Q3. Okay, this is now to Jillian.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Alberto, and good day, everyone. I'll start with the macro factors. So gold price was up strongly during the first half at 14%, outpacing most major asset classes. Most encouraging is the fact that this move upwards doesn't appear to be driven by a single factor and that it came despite elevated rates in the U. S.

Speaker 4

We saw continued healthy demand from central banks, robust investment flows in Asia and resilient customer demand, all against the backdrop of growing geopolitical uncertainty. As we have said before, we entered into 0 cost collars at the start of the year to cater for downside price risk given the high costs and uncertainty at our Brazil operations. The contracts cover the full year of 2024 with 150,000 ounces remaining for the second half of this year. The average spot price in the first half was $2,205 an ounce, which equates to a realized loss of $118 an ounce or $23,000,000 during the first half. Due to the strength of the U.

Speaker 4

S. Economy, inflation remained at elevated levels. Our realized inflation rate was about 6% for the first half of twenty twenty four and this impact was partially offset by currency exchange weakness against the U. S. Dollar, most notably for AGA in the Australia and Argentina business units.

Speaker 4

As Alberto has highlighted, really strong financial performance for the first half. The average gold price received was up 14% year on year. Adjusted EBITDA of $1,120,000,000 was up 65% year on year, again, well ahead of the higher price and on the back of higher ounces sold and lower operating costs. Headline earnings of $313,000,000 or $0.74 per share were well up compared to $61,000,000 dollars or $0.41 per share in the first half of last year. This improvement more than 400% was due to the strong operational performance offset by one offs with the realized hedging loss I mentioned earlier and additional decharacterization costs for the active closure management at both CDS and MSG.

Speaker 4

Total capital increased by 11% and this is in line with our internal plans, resulting in free cash flow of $206,000,000 against the prior year outflow of $205,000,000 dollars Free cash flow before growth capital expenditure, the metric on which dividend payment is based was $337,000,000 dollars a near fivefold increase year on year. Given our robust financial performance and the confidence we have in our ongoing performance for the second half, we declared an interim dividend of $0.22 per share, which equates to a payout ratio of 27%, in line with our policy minimum 20%. We are mindful that despite the healthy gold price environment, we must remain focused on proactive cost management. This is a non negotiable for us as we continue to regain our cost competitiveness. If you look at our costs, you will see we have delivered an aggregate 1% reduction year on year.

Speaker 4

When you unpack the detail, you can see CPI inflation was around 6%, royalties from higher gold price 2%, a slight increase in fuel price offset by currency change of 4%, as I mentioned primarily in Australia and Argentina. We then normalized for 1 offs, which was last year's impact from the tank fail in Siguiri unwinding and this year's impact of the rainfall event in Australia. The reduction in cash costs of $44 an ounce is related to volume, grade and costs, mainly characterized by improved operational performance through productivity improvements, better grades, enhanced cost efficiency, particularly across LATAM and in IDIOPRI. The 2% year on year increase in ASIC followed a planned increase in sustaining capital investment and this is really around ensuring we have adequate flexibility in operations with longer leads in ore development and stripping. Our targets for ore development is at least 12 months in advance and longer for stripping.

Speaker 4

On free cash flow, this chart is just helpful in showing how we managed to capture and flow through the benefit of higher gold price. The higher gold price drove a $318,000,000,000 increase in cash receipts. The positive movement in sales volumes, operating costs and working capital is a consequence of the discipline in operational excellence. We focus specifically on cash conversion, which has not historically been one of our strengths. We received cash inflows from Kibali in the form of loan repayments and dividends of 90,000,000 dollars At the end of June, our share of outstanding cash balances from the DRC was $19,000,000 down from $51,000,000 at the end of last year.

Speaker 4

Higher profits resulted in a $40,000,000 increase in tax payments alongside the higher CapEx that I previously mentioned. The balance sheet remains strong with cash on hand and undrawn facilities providing very good liquidity at around GBP 2,300,000,000. Dollars Leverage is well within our target range at 0.6 times even as we invest in our operating assets and pipeline and we have no material near term maturities. S and P concluded their annual review in April leaving our credit rating unchanged and our outlook as stable. We continue to engage with the rating agencies to communicate the improving fundamentals of our business.

Speaker 4

On guidance, our guidance remains unchanged. At the midpoint, we anticipate production growth of about 4% this year. Cash cost per ounce are more or less flat at the midpoint as we see full potential benefits offsetting inflation and the anticipated stronger Aussie dollar. We see sustaining CapEx growing slightly as we increase investment in Riverserve development, but in line with our plans. Growth CapEx is also expected to increase from last year's levels as we continue to invest in our next major production center in Nevada.

Speaker 4

I'll hand back to Alberto for his concluding remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Gillian. When I joined this business just under 3 years ago, the mission was simple, to safely regain cost competitiveness to be able to approach the multiples of our largest coal competitors. At the time, we have jumped to the top of the industry cost curve. Then in late 2021, with new senior leadership working alongside empowered operating and put a nuclear operating model in place, we implemented the full potential program to turn the tide. Today we can take a step back to check-in how we are tracking against our original goal.

Speaker 2

With mid-twenty 21 as the base and adjusting for U. S. CPI only, although we have faced stronger than that, our cash costs are about 4% lower in real terms relative to a 16% average increase for the peer group. And even with the inevitable stumbles that happen in this business, we've managed to achieve guidance on our key metrics each year and in 2024 barring any unexpected event we'll do it again. We obviously have more to do and we will always have more to do because this is an improvement, continuous improvement mentality.

Speaker 2

But we believe we have now embedded in our business the tool that helps us to do that. In conclusion, at the halfway point this year the performance has been I would say very solid even after the headwinds of Q1. What you've heard is that the year on year comparison was strong. The simplest view shows production up and cash cost down. Cash conversion is significantly better, hence the strong gains in cash flow, earnings and dividends.

Speaker 2

Q3 is off to a good start, teeing up to an even better second half. Full potential is working as intended. Our free cash flow showed a stunning turnaround from minus around $200,000,000 in H1 2023 to a positive plus $200,000,000 in the first half of this year. As we look to the second half and all things being equal, the gold price staying where it is, we anticipate free cash flow more than doubling the H1 levels. More importantly, if we go back to this half, the growth in cash flows in H1 has outpaced the impact of the higher gold price on our revenues and profits.

Speaker 2

In fact, it is 30% higher. This effectively means we've been able not only to keep every penny of the gold price increase, but to surpass it, thanks to our full asset potential program. In closing, we're stronger, more competitive and well placed to continue this improving trajectory. And we have our eyes on the remaining catalyst to completely close this gap. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, at this stage, we will begin the question and answer The first question that we have comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks, operator. Good day, everyone. Thanks, Alberto and Julian for the presentation and well done on the good performance. I have a couple of questions if I may. Alberto, just your cost performance clearly really good.

Speaker 5

You picked up that slide of 4% reduction in real terms. So where do you think that could end up with the asset potential program? What's more to come? And notwithstanding your peers have also had some trouble with their own profiles and I suspect there's some benefits coming their way. So as you know with this business, it's you're on a treadmill constantly and you're trying to remain competitive.

Speaker 5

So do you think you have enough ammo in the kitty down the line to remain a competitive position on the cost curve as you are moving towards? That's the first one. And then secondly, on Abawasi, you mentioned a target of 360 in Q3. When do you see that being achieved now? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Adrian. It is you're right a treadmill and it's relative performance. Look, I can only again, we've seen how we've closed this year the guidance. And I can only say that we when we look for example at Sunrise and I mentioned about this is where we relaunched the 2nd wave. And I don't know if the word is surprised, but we were quite happy with the possibilities that the team found again.

Speaker 2

At some point this will diminish, but the possibilities on Sunrise in the 2nd wave, as I mentioned, was about $100,000,000 So look, I think that we should still be able to continue to counter inflation. And if that is the case, I think that we will remain quite competitive. Again, we don't bank on this high gold price, but it is probably clear that the long term gold price will be more probably more on the $1800 And even at that level, we plan to have a very profitable company. But in the meantime, obviously, we want to maximize the cash flows. I probably I would want to make a bit more and it's related to what you said, but yes, the ability of companies to pass the gold price into profits I think is something that is quite important right now.

Speaker 2

In Obuasi, so what happens, we probably will access Block 10 a bit later than we thought we would. We right now probably think we can get to 3, 320 of annualized, but probably until we get to Block 10, we probably can't access a higher than that. What we plan to do Adrian and that's what I said is we plan to have this visit in January. We're very the good news is that the infrastructure that is cost more than $1,000,000,000 will be soon be over and we will have everything in place to produce what we've said in the past in the medium to longer term 350,000 and then plus 400,000. It's just a matter of the ventilation is very critical and we now know that we can only access very limited locked in until we have that full ventilation shaft working.

Speaker 2

We've said Q2 we're trying to accelerate it. So 20.35 depends of when we can have that ventilation and when we can properly assess Prop 10. What I would say is and I've said it in the past, do we have any doubts or anything that we will able to access properly Blocks 10 and Block 11 and get this mine where it should be, we have zero doubts about that. Will we have some volatility still in months? Yes, we probably still we're talking about being in the lowest end of the guidance, but still within guidance.

Speaker 2

So we're trying to do everything to kind of be around that number for this year.

Speaker 5

Thanks. That's clear. And then just for Gillian on the credit rating, it seems like I get a sense it should be a bit better. Do you not think that that's up for review given your improved performance as a business as it is and notwithstanding your operations are still in the same jurisdictions, but your listing has changed. But I would think your plans of exposure growing into Nevada should appease the credit rating agencies?

Speaker 5

And where do

Speaker 3

you think that rating could go?

Speaker 5

And what sort of benefit you should see on the finance charges? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Adrian. I think I definitely wouldn't want to opine specifically on what credit rating agencies will do. We are sort of actively engaging with them as we should. I think they are quite positive around the sort of consistency of performance and consistency of delivery. And that's definitely getting us positive momentum.

Speaker 4

I think you highlighted the sort of jurisdictional profile of our business and the reality is Nevada is not an operating asset at this point in time. I think the other thing I would probably say is the rating agencies quite rightly don't consider the gold price environment and they're not as bullish on gold price either. So I probably would round it off by saying we're pleased with the dialogue that we have. There is some positive momentum. We are getting good feedback around consistency and delivery and we'll continue to engage with them as we should.

Speaker 4

But I wouldn't want to anticipate timing of a change at this point in time.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, sir.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ed.

Operator

The next question we have comes from Leroyim Goony of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good afternoon, Julien and Alberto. Thanks for the opportunity. I've got two questions for Julian. So your effective tax rate is pretty high. I think it's about 45 percent when I recalculate it.

Speaker 7

It's much higher than I had expected. Could you please unpack what is driving that? And then generally, if I look through your numbers, you seem to have beaten or at least broadly in line on most of the numbers except your hips. Are there any other sort of abnormal items included in hips or non recurring items that we should consider when analyzing that?

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks. Thank you for that Leroy. So on the effective tax rate, on current tax, our tax rate is 32%. We do have an adjustment for deferred tax.

Speaker 4

It's a difference between local GAAP and IFRS accounting policy in Brazil and Argentina. It's not derived from earnings. It pushes the tax rate up. So it's a $75,000,000 adjustment, non cash and non earnings driven basically. So it's almost one of those anomalies in the way we need to report our tax position.

Speaker 4

But I think it's important to note that our effective tax rate or current tax rate is in line with the prior period at 32%. On the sort of one offs in earnings, I mentioned the 2 primary ones and they are one offs, but just to sort of reiterate those, it's the hedging loss that I talked about for the hedge and then we had 2 additions to closure provision in Brazil, dollars 18,000,000 at CDS and $41,000,000 at MSG, and that goes directly to earnings just as a consequence of the fact that you're in active de characterization of those tailings facilities. How do we see this playing out in the future? So we characterize those aspects as one offs. We are in active closure for those tailings facilities in Brazil.

Speaker 4

We continue to monitor them, but at today, we believe we've provided adequately for the closure within our accounts as you would expect us to. So not anticipating a change from today, but in an active closure, we'll continue to monitor.

Speaker 7

All right. Thank you. That's very clear. And then maybe just one question for Alberto as well, if I may. It seems like at Obuasi, the underhand cut and fill testing went pretty well and you're fairly confident that that would work as you roll it out.

Speaker 7

I remember in the past you've said it actually is a better mining method because you're able to be more accurate and you're taking less waste. So I was wondering if you would consider applying underhand cuts and fill to some of the areas that were initially intended for sublevel stoping? Is there an opportunity there at all?

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question. So look, we continue to make process with this method. What we believe is that it will be used in the areas where we find the most difficult run conditions. So for example, what we right now are doing it is at the lowest of Block 8 and we're starting this now in form. So we anticipate that part of Block 10 will be mined with this method, but we have to get there and we will have to assess.

Speaker 2

We'll give you more details. We have some plans already of what percentage is still going to be low, but significant in 2025, but we'll talk about more when hopefully you are coming at on-site on in January of next year.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Yes, looking forward to the trip.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. The next question we have comes from Chris Nicholson of RMB Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, good afternoon. Good morning all. Couple of questions, I think mainly for you, Gillian. Just the first one is just around the dividend payments and free cash flow. You mentioned obviously that you anticipate free cash flow more than doubling in the second half.

Speaker 3

What are you going to do with all the cash? If prices remain here, you should have scope to lift that demand payment even higher. So any views on that? And then second, just to confirm specifically on the hedging, clearly with the plants coming back on in Brazil now, just to confirm, it's still your thinking that these were one off type of hedging events. There's no intention to roll any hedges further into 2025 onwards at these gold prices.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 2

I'll probably take that, Julian, if you and you can complement me. Starting for the probably by the second one, the hedges, it was it's the exception to the rule that we don't hedge. Last year after we especially after losing $100 and something 1,000,000 in the first half in free cash flow, We wanted to ensure that we would give certainty to the operations of a price and it was with a collar that would and at that price they had to be cash neutral. And that was sort of the mandate. I think it was the right decision then.

Speaker 2

It would have been difficult we believe if the prices have kept at that level where they were when we took the hedge to have another year of negative sort of cash flow. So I think we it was the right decision then. But yes, it was the exception. So we don't plan to renew them, we don't plan to extend them. And right now we don't see any necessity for cash before any hedging.

Speaker 2

So in dividend what I wanted to take that is look the policy hasn't changed. The policy is a minimum of 20%, but obviously we can go higher. And so right now the only thing that we are signaling at this stage is that we're confident that we're going to have again, without anything unusual, a significant year and hence, we'll most probably will be above the 20% dividend for the full year. So at this stage, I don't want to we will probably be at a very low end of gearing, maybe 0.3, 0.4 around the year. So yes, we'll cross that bridge when we get there, but there's no intention right now to change any policy or anything of that sort.

Speaker 2

We'll probably keep dealing with dividends.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you very much, Alberto.

Operator

Thank you, sir. The next question we have comes from Roger of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you, operator, and good day, Alberto and team. My first question is on your operation outlook for the second half. In Q2, we saw production improve across most of your asset bases. If you look at the second half, which assets do you think there's potential risk outside of Obuasi? And then coming to Obuasi, the second half, even if you do like the lower end, dollars 275,000,000 that's still almost a 50% to 60% improvement you need over what you did in the first half of the year per quarter.

Speaker 8

Can you comment on how where you stand at this point in August with respect to be able to with respect to development rates and your ability to meet that production? And then lastly, a question for Julian. On the working capital movement for the first half of the year, can you comment on that? And how much of that would you expect to unwind in the second half? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Look, all of operations are an interesting sort of beast because they have an inertia on the positive side and on the negative side. And right now, we have a positive inertia, I would think, on all of our operations. In Seguity, in Sunrise, in Tropicana, we've recovered. Brazil, CVSA is doing well. And then there's a positive momentum in all the others.

Speaker 2

So that sort of underpins the confidence of why we think we are guiding towards sort of the middle of the range in terms of production. Now Obuasi, I mentioned we did annualize 300 in June and we're going to surpass that in August. We sort of know where it is and we know it's the grades. I talked about a grade of about 7.9 in June, while the average grade for the first half was 5.6. So that's where we do see a significant uplift in production in the second half.

Speaker 2

If it gets to exactly 270 or 260 or if it's 160 or 170, again nobody knows. Is it going to are we seeing already the levels in June August that are required to sort of reach that low end of the guidance? We are seeing that. As I probably said before, the most important thing for the future is that level of 100 1,000, 100 and maybe eventually it's going to be 110,000 and then 120,000 tons of ore per month when we have all of the infrastructure going. And that level, if you look at the average grades of Block 10 and then Block 11 is what really yes, that's when you start getting much, much higher ounces per month.

Speaker 2

But for the volatility in the short run, the answer is we do expect a significantly better in the second half, we will see exactly where we end up, but already it's showing good signs.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Raj, for your question. I think on working capital, we're not anticipating an unwind. What we did in the first half was reduced inventory, so gold and basically no gold on the ground and in process material. We also had a reduction in receivables because we didn't have the sort of concentrate debtor that we did have at the first half of last year out of Brazil, as you'll probably recall. So we anticipate maintaining that discipline around inventory and debtors.

Speaker 4

On the AP side, we do see further opportunity. We had a reduction in payables in the first half and we're working with our supply chain lead and our treasury team to just optimize that payables book. So a long way of saying we want to stay stable, albeit Alberta wants to optimize further as well, but definitely no unwind for the second half.

Speaker 8

Okay, Julien. And then can you I didn't see the number on the cash flow statement. What was the working capital movement for the first half?

Speaker 4

So the movement year on year was a positive $46,000,000

Speaker 3

on

Speaker 4

the free cash flow reconciliation. Actual movement was $160,000,000 of change in working capital year on year, which was better than

Speaker 2

prior year. Okay. I still think it could be a bit better, but okay.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 8

That's it for me.

Operator

Thank you, Saul. The next question we have comes from Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, good morning.

Speaker 7

I wanted to ask you, if

Speaker 6

I may, about the Nevada. You said that most of the drilling you've done recently has been infill drilling. But when I look at the map, there seems to be quite a lot of drilling to the west of silicon, which you mentioned on your last conference call, but you didn't talk about it today. Is there anything significant there?

Speaker 2

That I'm probably going to ask for help on Terry, I don't know or Marcelo.

Speaker 9

All the I mean we're not in field drilling silicon, our focus is on the higher grade portion you see outlined on that map. That map shows the Merlin long section, which is the focus of our PFS.

Speaker 6

Right. I'm sorry, I meant Merlin. But there's a lot of drilling to the west of Merlin that you mentioned on your last conference call. Is that what you're meaning by the infill drilling?

Speaker 9

Infill drilling is within the Merlin pit outline in red on that plan view map on Slide 13. All the drilling has been within that pit area.

Speaker 6

Okay, okay. Okay. But there seems a lot of drill holes to the west of the pit of Merlin.

Speaker 9

Yes. I mean, if you're looking like at green dots on the map, Yes, some of that is earlier drilling or geotechnical drilling for high wall stability, but as I said, most focus has been on the mineral resource.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay. Okay. No, thank you then. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Adrian.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Terry.

Operator

The next question we have comes from Tanya Yakusznick of Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Okay.

Speaker 10

Good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Just wanted to follow-up with you on the guidance, which you said production is going to be at the midpoint of the guidance range. What about costs? Previously they were trending towards the lower end of the guidance range.

Speaker 10

Is that still the case because we've got the tailwinds from FX as well?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tanja. Yes, they are. I think that I saw something probably in the June script, but it's not the midpoint. We're going towards the lowest end. There is some technical changes in that we are now going to be reporting attributable, so 100% of Seguity and 100% of the others.

Speaker 2

And so that has will increase a bit, but we're still much closer. So the low end of the guidance is $10.75 and I think we will be going maybe $20, dollars 25 higher than that. So that's the lowest end in my mind. And this is after the change that we've done in attributable. Without that change we would be just

Speaker 10

Okay. So it's volume as well. Okay, got it. And then just so and again keeping in mind that any further asset potential progress you're making, we're just thinking of that as just offsetting inflation?

Speaker 2

I don't know, Tanya. I think at least inflation would be my thing. But if I look at Sunrise again and if we can actually right now is we have a target that is a bit more than 100, but if that were the case, yes, that would probably even more than offset inflation. So I don't know. I don't you know, I've been very hesitant on giving up targets.

Speaker 2

I have preferred to just show what we delivered. So I would probably put it at a minimum and hopefully going more than offsetting.

Speaker 10

Offsetting, okay. And then just a couple of housekeeping items. I just saw just wanted to know where we stand on Ghana, that joint venture. Is that happening anytime soon? Or where are we on that?

Speaker 10

And I also noticed, you mentioned Quebradona. I haven't heard about this asset for a while. So what's changed there as well? And then I have a final one for Jillian on U. S.

Speaker 10

Gas.

Speaker 2

Okay. So look, the JV, I would probably say that I am more optimistic than I would have been in the last quarter. We're very keep very aligned with Goldfields. And I think we've made very good progress with the government. But there's still somewhere sometime and some processes to go, we're still in the middle of negotiation.

Speaker 2

So I wouldn't want to comment on any detail, but just if you turn back at my sort of I would be more positive that this will eventually happen and we should for the next quarter, I think we should have more news. But I think that, yes, I would say it's a much, much more positive outlook that the JV will happen than I would have been 3 months ago. Quebradona, we just continue to make progress on an optimized feasibility study and on measuring water and all of that. So but as we point out, it's a long term sort of option. Currently with I would say this government in place is probably not the friendliest of oil or coal or any type of mining.

Speaker 2

So we are we would expect to continue sort of negotiations, renew them in about 2 years. But this is for the license. But we continue to make progress on the as I said on the optimal feasibility study and all of that. And it is a very good project. But as we put out in the presentation, it's a much more long term option.

Speaker 10

Okay. And then maybe for you, Jillian, just on the U. S. GAAP, am I still thinking we're still 12 to 18 months out on adopting U. S.

Speaker 10

GAAP?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Tanya. So I think, first we probably would say that we are now set up to report our full financials quarterly under IFRS from now. So Q3 will be the same level of disclosure as you can see here in Q2 and then ongoing. We have reconfirmed our domestic filer status under the SEC rules in June. And so that means that next test will be the 30th June 2025.

Speaker 4

Our plan is to go live with U. S. GAAP from the 1st January, 2026. If we were in a position where we are following foreign filer status next June, we would adopt to that. But for now, you can consider 1st January, 2026 for U.

Speaker 4

S. GAAP. I think maybe just kind of we as AngloGold Ashanti, some people will know, reported under U. S. GAAP 13 years ago.

Speaker 4

And so the exercise of re reporting under U. S. GAAP requires the sort of reconciliation of the balance sheet from that 13 years ago to today. So big piece of work that the team is very actively working on now, but sort of no small work for the finance team anyway.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you so much for that. Appreciate you taking my questions. Thank you and congrats on a good quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Sonia.

Operator

Thank you. The last question we have on the conference call is a follow-up from Leroy M Goony. Please go ahead, sir. Leroy, your line is live, sir.

Speaker 7

Apologies for that. Thanks for the opportunity. Alberto, I just wanted to follow-up on a few comments you made when you spoke about the quarterly results in May. The first one I remember you said for CVS, there was a potential buyer that was interested that you thought was a responsible operator and a good candidate? Has anything come from that?

Speaker 7

And then Cerro Grande, it's sort of you're hinting towards not really having a future in your portfolio, but I guess in a higher gold price environment, your views on that asset change at all?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Leroy. In CDS we continue to talk with this interested party. So that is continuing. And on Sierra Grande, look, the world changes when you have a cash producing asset. So I just think that the team has done a fabulous job in focusing on the things that matter.

Speaker 2

If you look at the biggest, there's 2 things that changed significantly in Ceragante, which is the grade and the costs. So that's what makes it a positive free cash flow operation in the first half. But yes, it's that produces 2 things, which is there's no burning platform to sell it, but it is of a scale that is probably the Jack Welch probably will be worth more with somebody else than with us. So there's no thing active on selling, but if we will get a reasonable sort of buyer and it's going to be much easier now. Now there are some things that we are in both assets.

Speaker 2

We are still working a lot on making sure that we don't leave any significant license to operate environmental issues, in particular on TSF's like outstanding and in particular the de characterization of some of these dams. So we want to make sure we finish it ourselves and then we don't leave any significant liability in the air, if I may say so. So that probably will would delay things. But so in a nutshell, we're happy with it right now. There's no burning issue.

Speaker 2

It's giving cash. The team is doing a great job. If there were a reasonable ask, yes, we would contemplate.

Speaker 7

Understood. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks Leroy. Alberto, we've got some questions from the webcast now, just a rapid fire round. We've covered a lot of them in the other answers. But if I might just start by saying, given the elevated this is from Martin Krim at Mining Weekly. He says, given the elevated performance, how far do you estimate AngloGold Ashanti maybe from catching up with the valuations of its North American peers?

Operator

Look,

Speaker 2

we always knew just because of precedent what happened in particular for Anglo American for example and others built it, I mean, it's getting its time and all of that. It takes time for a rerating, 2 or 3 years. And the reason for that is that you need to obviously the rerating comes from accessing and let's say a good percentage of the gold capital that we today are underrepresented. And so that will take some time. But I am happy by the following.

Speaker 2

If you look at things, I don't usually talk about the share price because it is so volatile. But if you look at our performance in the last 3 years, it's probably with gold fields have been the by far the best performance. So I think we're already beginning to catch that valuation with our peers and obviously so our performance in share price versus our large competitors has been significantly higher. So but there is still a gap to close in indicators like EV to EBITDA and I think it will take some time. I'd probably finalize by saying the interest in the company from the American, from the U.

Speaker 2

S. And the Canadian market is significant. And we're very busy. Again, Jillian, Stuart and I and all of the ex co by the industry are very busy and after results and in all of these meetings of Denver and Gulf of Rome, etcetera, etcetera. So the interest is there.

Speaker 1

All right. Alberto, just a quick follow on from Martin. He says, AngloGold has clearly declared war on inflation. What do you find most effective in lowering costs? And are you still confident you could do more?

Speaker 2

Look, one area where we are starting now to do probably more is on supply and that's now an important part of full asset potential. We already started it with we're very happy with a very, I think win win negotiation we did with explosives, where we now have a global mainly eventually we will have a global explosives company in a long term contract. And so that win win allows you to for much more transparent pricing. And what was very good with that contract is we were able to get back to the prices of 2021. If you remember 2022, 2023 with inflation, ammonia went dramatically up, fuel went dramatically up.

Speaker 2

But one of the problems with these type of mining services, if you don't are careful, they never go down and they should go down because ammonia went down and oil went down, etcetera. And so that's so we have we're going to work on the big on supply and we think we still have a way to go there. But probably I will add to Martin's question. A lot of us is not by lowering the numerator, but the denominator that is doing more ounces with the same costs. And that's how we have been able to lower in real terms the cash cost per ounce.

Speaker 1

Thanks Alberto. Just a couple more. Sandile Magagoula at Mtambo Wealth says, does the free cash flow figure of 202,000,000 include Kibali proceeds, loans and dividends? That's the first one. And the second, is the Brazil performance sustainable into H2?

Speaker 1

What has been the run rate in the opening months of H2?

Speaker 4

So on the first one, yes, the free cash flow does include Kibali proceeds, loans and dividends.

Speaker 2

Yes. And then Brazil, it is sustainable. As you can see, we're seeing it right now as we start the Q3. It is it's just the new team is doing a much better job. So that inertia that I spoke about is continuing into the second half.

Speaker 2

Good. And then

Speaker 1

Thanks. Pardon me, Alberto. Herbert Karrive from ABSA. Herbert, your tax charge question asked and answered. Catherine, your Abu Wasi guidance question, I think asked and answered as well.

Speaker 1

So I think with that, Alberto, we're out of time. So maybe just concluding remark and we can wrap.

Speaker 2

Look, we just need to continue to do what we're doing. There's a whole company just always want to remind there's just 30,000 people who do this And there is a good organization, there are good procedures in place, good operating model in place, people are empowered at the assets, we have very good operators from GMs, SVPs, VPs across the company and everybody sort of knows what to do. And so we are confident again, barring anything that we don't know today, that that momentum that we especially see in the second quarter will continue in Q3 and Q4. And that's it. It's just keep doing what we're doing.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Albert.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Okay.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Albert.

Speaker 2

Good. Thank you all. Cheers. Bye. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
AngloGold Ashanti H1 2024
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