Shoals Technologies Group Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2024

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Shoals Technologies Group Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and we have allocated 1 hour for prepared remarks and Q and A. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Matt Trachtenberg, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations for Schulz Technologies Group. Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Hosting the call with me is our CEO, Brandon Moss and our CFO, Dominic Bartos. On this call, management will be making projections or other forward looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, which should not be considered guarantees of performance or results. Actual results could differ materially from our forward looking statements. Risk factors include, among other things, those described in our filings with the the Securities and Exchange Commission, including economic, market and industry conditions, project delays, defects or performance problems in our products or their parts, including those related to the wire insulation shrink back matter, failure to accurately estimate the potential losses related to such matter and failure to recover those losses from the manufacturer, decreased demand for our products, policy and regulatory changes, supply chain disruptions and availability and price of our components and materials.

Speaker 1

Today's presentation also includes references to non GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the company's 2nd quarter press release for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures. Please note that the slides you see here are available for download from the Investor Relations section of our website at investors. Scholz dotcom. Before we begin, I want to remind our audience that Scholes will be hosting its first Analyst Day for research analysts and institutional investors on September 5 in Nashville, Tennessee.

Speaker 1

Our extended management team will present our strategy, growth drivers and investment thesis. Formal presentations will be followed by a factory tour and evening reception. If you're interested in joining us in person, please reach out to me directly at investorsshoels.com. A live webcast will also be made available for those wishing to join virtually. With that, let me turn the call over to Brandon.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin with 2nd quarter highlights, followed by an overview of market trends and then discuss our updated outlook. I'll then cover the team's progress at Intersolar and provide an update on warranty remediation and our ongoing ITC intellectual property litigation. Finally, I'll wrap up with some customer highlights before handing the call over to Dominic, who will review our financial results for the quarter and the 2024 outlook. I'm pleased to report 2nd quarter results exceeded expectations both on revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 2

Q2 revenue of $99,200,000 declined 16.7% from the prior year period, but increased 9.3% sequentially. The year over year decline was largely a result broader market disruptions we and others have been discussing this year and which I'll review in a moment. Gross margins of 40.3% declined by 2 10 basis points from the prior year period, driven by lower sales volumes and higher labor costs, but expanded 10 basis points sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA was $27,700,000 for the period, down $20,500,000 from the prior year period as a result of lower revenue and adjusted gross margin. We added $126,000,000 of backlog and awarded orders to end at a record $642,300,000 for the Q2.

Speaker 2

While we're increasingly positive on long term outlook, we are not immune to near term challenges many are experiencing within the U. S. Utility scale solar market. To provide some context, 56% of planned installations in gigawatts are experiencing delays of 6 months or more. Almost 70% of installations are experiencing delays of any duration.

Speaker 2

Total gigawatts experiencing any delay now totals 41, up 15% from prior year period. And as of June 2024, U. S. Energy and Information Administration Form 8 60 ms on time installs and gigawatts are at their lowest level in 18 months. As a result of these delays, we continue to experience incremental push outs during the Q2, resulting in approximately $40,000,000 of additional revenue moving from the current year into 2025.

Speaker 2

No cancellations occurred in the period. The reasons for delay remain consistent and include permitting, lengthy interconnection queues, the inability to obtain transformers and switchgear in a timely manner, labor shortages and persistently high financing costs. We have no indication that these delays are unique to Shoals as customers have been candid in their feedback and share market expectations with us in real time. In fact, as you'll hear today, we believe that many of the strategic initiatives and focus are beginning to show signs of promise. As you would expect in a period of continued uncertainty around timing of rate cuts, AD CBD, a presidential election cycle and supply chain disruptions, our book and term business was challenged as well, impacting our second half expectations.

Speaker 2

We take our commitments very seriously and believe setting realistic and achievable goals is critical to retaining the trust of shareholders. That said, while the underlying fundamentals of the U. S. Utility scale solar market remains strong and compelling, project timing volatility persists. To account for this ongoing risk many are experiencing, we believe it's prudent to further reduce our full year 2024 outlook.

Speaker 2

Our revised outlook accounts for continued project delays and assumes minimal book and bill business for the remainder of the year. While we expect current challenges will resolve in time, strong tailwinds for low growth are expected to strengthen driven by the growth of AI, the U. S. Manufacturing renaissance and the electrification of transportation modes. We remain confident in solar's vital role and new power generation capacity for two key reasons.

Speaker 2

Utility scale solar remains quicker and more economical to deploy than conventional energy sources and the major tech companies driving AI and data center growth have committed to powering these facilities with sustainable energy. These factors support our positive long term outlook

Speaker 3

These factors support our positive long term outlook despite near term uncertainty.

Speaker 2

While short term volatility is challenging for all of us, we remain focused on what we are building for the long term, a more resilient, consistent and diversified business. The impact of today's efforts will be realized in time, and we continue to believe that we are uniquely positioned to win in the marketplace. We will continue to focus on increasing our wallet share of domestic EPCs, expanding into previously unserved market segments, adding new products to our portfolio and moving into attractive geographies outside of North America. Moving to international. In addition to more than 130 customer meetings, we met with many of you at Intersolar in Germany in June.

Speaker 2

There we unveiled our most comprehensive international product suite to date, launching new solutions for unobstructed rows, agrisolar and north south configurations complementing our east west offerings. Our new prefabricated plug and play solutions eliminate the need for insulation piercing connectors, helping ensure durability in extreme conditions and protecting the long term investment of developers. The lineup features globally certified versions of our U. S. Products and innovations like SuperJumper, Trench BLA, Mini BLA and Smart Combiner.

Speaker 2

These solutions are designed to simplify project design, reduce risk, accelerate timelines and cut costs while helping customers meet sustainability goals. These products significantly expand Schulz's international capabilities with our portfolio, which based on conversations with customers now address approximately 90% of their unique product needs. We continue to target Latin America, Australia, Southern Europe, Africa and the Middle East with an estimated collective opportunity of 63 gigawatts in 2025, more than double the U. S. Market expectations.

Speaker 2

We look forward to updating you on our progress. Turning to our remediation efforts related to shrink back on wire purchased from Prismian, a former vendor, our potential range of exposure has not changed this quarter. Since our last update, we have become aware of 2 additional sites potentially displaying shrink back. We continue to work with our customers to remediate known issues and further our understanding of remediation challenges and opportunities. In terms of the legal proceedings against Prismium, we are working the process and expect written discovery and depositions to be completed by early next year.

Speaker 2

With regards to our ITC intellectual property litigation, the court's initial ruling was originally expected on July 12, but was delayed to August 16 based on the court's need for additional time. We continue to believe we presented a strong case and the protection of our intellectual property and await the initial ruling. Moving now to some exciting developments on the customer front. First, I'm pleased to see orders begin to appear from the EPC we signed a new agreement with in the Q1. The relationship is off to a great start, I'm encouraged by the early traction.

Speaker 2

I'm also very proud to announce an expansion of our master supply agreement with Blattner, one of the largest EPCs in the market today. This agreement will add an additional 12 gigawatts through June of 2027 and is on top of the amount remaining on the existing MSA. We believe this expansion is a testament of the strong relationship we've built with this industry leader. We look forward to a long and productive partnership. Wins with existing partners are the most visible examples of the traction we see, but when we look deeper into our customer list, I'm even more encouraged.

Speaker 2

Through the first half of twenty twenty four, we've seen significant traction with customers who we previously saw wallet shares decline from. In fact, more than $130,000,000 of our backlog and awarded orders as of June 30 is now from this subset of customers. Over the last 6 months, I've met with many of these customers myself, and we've had very candid conversations about what they want and need from us. We believe we're turning the corner with many of them. We are gaining wallet share with these customers and appreciate their trust and support, and we intend on exceeding their expectations.

Speaker 2

Quoting activity continues to be at record levels as our value proposition remains compelling, particularly in an environment of rising labor and material cost. Notably, the amount of projects Shoals In the first half of the year, a significant portion of our quote volume is with accounts beyond our top 20 customers. We are very positive about the opportunity ahead. In summary, while I'm pleased with our book to bill of approximately 1.3 in the period, I'm more encouraged by the quality and diversification of the order book. Our customer mix is improving and is a direct result of many of the things we've put in place over the last year, including expanding our outreach to underserved customers and enabling a deeper level of engagement within each account.

Speaker 2

Last quarter, we raised the subject of our revenue recognition as it pertains to industry capacity. While we provide this in the spirit of transparency and ongoing education for our analysts and shareholders, we believe it paints a valuable picture. I also think it's worth reminding you about our sales cycle because there is in some cases a significant lag in which we recognize revenue and when you may have visibility into that project. We believe we've done a great job growing our market share over the years and there are opportunities to expand it going forward. What is clear from the analysis is that our sales cycle from first outreach through multiple engineering iterations to production, to delivery and installation to COD is often in excess of 2 years.

Speaker 2

For example, some projects that went live in 2023 were recognized as revenue at Shoals as early as 2021. Approximately 10% of the 2023 COD was recognized as revenue in 2021, 70% in 202220 percent in 2023. Looking at the data from another angle, in revenue terms, not COD, 21% of projects associated with our 2022 reported revenues and 81% of those associated with our 2023 reported revenues have not gone live as of today. The average lead time from revenue recognition to COD is 13 months, consistent with what we've shared with you in the past. But in some cases, it's more than 2 years and some projects go live in a short time after installing our solutions.

Speaker 2

What we glean from this analysis is the sales cycle has been lengthening, also consistent with past observations. Said another way, much of the commercial activity you see occurring today in 2020 4 from customer engagement to quoting the engineering will not be seen this year, but in years to come. That is a function of the size of the projects, the permitting and interconnection complexity, which we all navigate, but also a function of the foundational changes we are implementing here at Shoals. Changes that are being put in place to prepare us for the market growth we see ahead and the expansion we tend on driving. Shoals brought the EBOS category to market first in 2,008, so it shouldn't be surprising that we have leading market share.

Speaker 2

What might surprise you is that we've achieved that while addressing only a subset of the market, approximately 70% in fact. That 30% belong to customers we either did not do business with or to projects that were smaller in size. That opportunity, that expansion of our served addressable market could be in excess of 30 gigawatts of capacity in the next 3 years alone according to industry estimates. Our goal going forward is to ensure all customers have the products and service they need to be successful in the marketplace. The changes we've made to our sales structure, product offering and marketing efforts are designed to do just that.

Speaker 2

In the last year, we've built a formal product development function staffed with experienced electrical engineers who have already launched more new products than in the previous 3 years. We've improved and refined a marketing function that is capturing the customer voice, ensuring we meet their needs and is aligned with future market opportunities. Our new sales go to market pod strategy leverages a proven playbook to scale our business while improving touch points. Each of these critical functions are led by new passionate business leaders who bring a wealth of experience, process and strategy to Shoals. Early indication is that these commercial initiatives we're executing on today are already making a difference.

Speaker 2

We can see it in the MSA expansions like Blattner's and other new commercial agreements with new customers we've signed this year and the composition of our awarded order book and the conversations with our customers I've been having this year. We are improving our customer service to existing accounts, while expanding our offering into new market segments like CC and I, data centers and battery storage and entering new geographies with new EPCs. We believe that what we are doing today will set us up for success in the years to come, but we like what we're seeing already and so do customers. With that, I'll turn it over to Dominic, who will discuss our Q2 financial results and our outlook for the remainder of the year. Dominic?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Brandon, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Turning to our financial results. 2nd quarter net revenue declined 16.7 percent to $99,200,000 year over year, but increased 9.3% sequentially. The year over year decline in net revenue was driven by project push outs, which resulted in lower demand for our products in domestic utility scale solar projects. Gross profit decreased to $40,000,000 compared to $50,500,000 in the prior year period.

Speaker 3

Gross profit as a percentage of net revenue was 40.3% compared to 42.4% in the prior year period, primarily due to higher labor costs and lower fixed cost absorption. General and administrative expenses were $19,200,000 compared to $16,700,000 during the same period in the prior year. The year over year increase in general and administrative expenses was primarily related to legal fees for the patent infringement and wire insulation shrink back matters and planned increases in payroll expense. Approximately $1,400,000 of G and A expense was specifically related to the wire insulation shrinkback litigation. Net income was $11,800,000 compared to $18,900,000 during the same period in the prior year.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA was $27,700,000 compared to $48,200,000 in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.9 percent compared to 40.4 percent a year ago, driven largely by lower sales and adjusted gross margin. Adjusted net income was $17,800,000 compared to $31,200,000 in the prior year period. Cash flow from operations was $37,800,000 while capital expenditures were $2,000,000 The strength in cash flow from operations was driven by an improvement in working capital, more specifically, a reduction in receivables. As you likely read our announcement in June, our Board approved our 1st share repurchase program up to $150,000,000 with authorization to repurchase through December 31, 2025.

Speaker 3

This included a $25,000,000 of an accelerated share repurchase, which was launched in June and completed just last week in Q3. In total, we retired approximately 3,900,000 shares at an average price of just under $6.40 per share. We funded the initial ASR using cash on hand in June, which allowed us to quickly allocate capital towards an opportunity that we believe provides an attractive long term return for shareholders. As we said on last quarter's earnings call, we do not believe the current share price reflects the long term value we are creating and so we expect this authorization may be used opportunistically over time. We will continue to evaluate investment opportunities to deploy the strong free cash flow we see ahead, which first and foremost includes growing our core business, but may also include M and A.

Speaker 3

We will prioritize those opportunities with the most attractive return profile that aligns with our strategy. Moving to wire insulation shrink pack, as Brandon mentioned, based on our current knowledge and assumptions, the remediation range remains at $59,700,000 on the low end and $184,900,000 at the high end. During the Q2, we spent $5,300,000 in cash for remediation efforts and had a remaining warranty liability on our balance sheet of $46,000,000 related to the shrink back matter as of June 30. The current portion of the remaining liability is now $29,800,000 As a reminder, this represents the amount of cash we estimate we will consume during the next 4 quarters as we continue remediation efforts and does not reflect any potential recovery from Prismium or increased reserves if our assumptions or knowledge of facts change. This figure is more than covered by our expected free cash flow over the same period.

Speaker 3

Our balance sheet remains very strong and we ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 1.1 times, which is down from 1.5 times a year ago and a significant improvement from 4.4 times as of Q1 2022. Optimizing our balance sheet is crucial to maximizing flexibility and long term growth. By carefully managing our assets and liabilities, we can ensure efficient use of capital, reduce costs and position the company to seize new opportunities as they arise. Turning to backlog and awarded orders. As of June 30, 2024, we had $642,300,000 in backlog and awarded orders, an increase of 18% year over year as the company added $126,000,000 to backlog and awarded orders during the period.

Speaker 3

As we have previously discussed, some of our international orders have longer lead times than domestic orders, and we are also winning domestic jobs that extend or have been delayed beyond our historical revenue cycle of 9 to 13 months to realize revenue from awarded orders. As of June 30, approximately $465,000,000 of our backlog and awarded order projects have planned delivery dates in the coming four quarters, with the remaining $177,000,000 beyond that. We are halfway through 2020 4 and are comfortable where we currently sit for next year. Our sales team is encouraged by the level of customer engagement and projects continue to come into our awarded orders for 2025 at a reasonable pace. As you would expect in a period of market uncertainty, there will be gives and takes as we make our way through the second half of the year.

Speaker 3

Our intention is to give you more clarity in the coming quarter. Turning now to the outlook. As a result of the current macroeconomic and industry uncertainty, we will continue to provide quarterly guidance for the remainder of the year. Based on current business conditions, business trends and other factors, company now expects 3rd quarter revenue to be in the range of $95,000,000 to $105,000,000 3rd quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 and 4th quarter revenue to be in the range of $85,000,000 to $105,000,000 and 4th quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $22,000,000 to $31,000,000 These figures imply that for the full year 2024, the company now expects revenue to be in the range of $370,000,000 to $400,000,000 This incremental change is reflective of the industry delays we're experiencing. I want to stress that we believe these changes reflect the timing of revenues, not lost projects.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $96,000,000 to $110,000,000 adjusted net income to be in the range of $62,000,000 to $76,000,000 cash flow from operations to be in the range of $62,000,000 to $82,000,000 capital expenditures to be in the range of $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 and interest expense to be in the range of $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 With that, I'll turn it back over to Brandon for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dominic. I would like to close by providing some additional color on why we remain so positive on the markets in which we operate and the transformation you're seeing at Shoals. Energy production is not meeting demand, that much is clear. What is not clear yet is what is going to be done to solve that problem. AI requires an enormous amount of power and we believe the data center operators who are in an AI arms race are struggling to meet their net zero goals.

Speaker 2

And it's not just the data center operators. You might be among the 2,600,000 people in Texas without power for days following Hurricane Barril last month. A more robust grid is critical. It's getting worse, not better. All of us see more electric vehicles on the road today.

Speaker 2

And while we can argue the rate of adoption, we haven't seen anyone arguing that it's up into the right. We believe the electrification of transportation is inevitable and it will strain the grid. No matter where you look, the trends we are embracing require more power, not less. We also know that solar power provides the most compelling economics. It's clean, accessible and often the fastest to bring online, certainly as compared to nuclear, which estimates say can take a decade or more to stand up and certainly more than coal given the regulatory hurdles you need to navigate.

Speaker 2

We know Shoals brought to market the EBOS category for U. S. Utility scale solar. We have an exceptional history of high quality custom engineered solutions for our EPC customers. The rest of the world is navigating many of the same issues we are here and while cheap labor is readily available, experienced electricians and engineers are not.

Speaker 2

Those EPCs are

Speaker 4

in need of many of

Speaker 2

the same solutions we provide today and those discussions have already begun. We know that there are large portions of the U. S. Utility and distributed generation market that have not been served by Shoals. We also know how meaningful the international market opportunity is for us.

Speaker 2

And we know that operational excellence, including productivity and efficiency optimization is now top of mind. These market opportunities, when paired with the strong foundation we have and the new capabilities, talent and products we are introducing, set us up well for a successful future. We look forward to introducing those team members, discussing those capabilities and letting you hear directly from our customers at our Investor Day why Shoals is the partner they have chosen to do business with. I want to thank our customers and shareholders for their trust and our employees for their hard work. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We will now be conducting a question and answer The first question is from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess first one I had was just on over the past 3 months, I guess, what has been the biggest incremental change here that's underscoring the revised outlook again downward for the 2nd straight quarter. I guess we understand there's delays out there and your peers have been talking about how the environment is fluid.

Speaker 5

But it seems like the magnitude is maybe a bit more pronounced for you guys in terms of what it means to numbers versus others. So just trying to reconcile why that might be the case? What's changed over the past 3 months for you specifically? Incremental concerns around that potentially being a incremental concerns around that potentially being a idiosyncratic factor and what's causing this update? And I had a follow-up.

Speaker 2

Brian, thanks. Good questions. A lot to unpack there. I guess to tackle the first one first. Really the big picture for us quarter to quarter is it's more of the same.

Speaker 2

We talked about $50,000,000 of project push outs in the Q1. We had about $40,000,000 this quarter. So the short term volatility, I know it's frustrating. It's frustrating for us. Again, I'd remind everybody, these are not lost projects.

Speaker 2

These are projects that are pushed out to the right. As it relates to the discussion around or the question around the competitive landscape, I feel better than ever about our commercial execution. We showed backlog and awarded order growth to record levels this quarter of $642,000,000 adding $126,000,000 of backlog and awarded orders and a strong book to bill ratio of 1.3. So I like how we're executing. I think our customers like how we're executing as evidenced by our new extension to the Blattner agreement of 12 gigawatts, which is unbelievably exciting for this organization.

Speaker 2

What is also extremely exciting about our commercial execution is the quality and diversity of our order book. If you think about our order book last year this time, prior period Q2, about 77% of our backlog and awarded orders was made up of our top 10 customers. That number is now 61%. I talked about in previous calls, we had a handful of customers where we've lost wallet share and we needed to improve. $130,000,000 of our backlog and awarded orders is now related to that customer subset.

Speaker 2

So really happy with commercial execution. I think the challenges that we face are not unique to Shoals or market driven challenges. And again, I couldn't be happier with how we're executing on the customer side. I think you have a follow-up.

Speaker 5

Yes. No, that was super helpful color. I guess, given your comments between Q1 and Q2, it's almost $100,000,000 of push outs, not lost projects. Do you have indications from your customers that that's going to progress in 2025, you will actually be asked to deploy and ship that product in 2025 or what sort of the visibility into the recapture of that close to $100,000,000 of push outs you've seen through the 1st part of this year? Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Yes. The project push outs, look, as I've talked about in the past, myriad of reasons. What we hear probably most commonly is site permitting and interconnection challenges. So these projects, we look at everything on a project by project basis. We have customers and construction schedules in many cases, and we see these projects pushing out into 2025.

Speaker 2

Now I think I've been asked this question in the past, is 1 plus 1 going to equal 2 for 2025? We see these challenges still persisting into the back half of the year. There are project delays and those are a challenge for us. So we will continue to monitor those projects on a project by project basis as we always do, Brian.

Speaker 5

All right. Thanks a lot, guys. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

The next question is from Mark Strouse from JPMorgan Chase and Co. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking our questions. Curious if you can discuss the ASP trends for these new orders that you're booking and whether we should think of your gross margins kind of remaining in that low to mid-40s range that you've talked about previously. Just kind of trying to feel out if any of these headwinds, be it industry or company specific, if those headwinds are impacting your pricing power?

Speaker 7

And then I've got a follow-up as well. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Mark. Thanks for the question. Good to hear from you. Yes, no changes to our guided margin of 40% to 45 percent.

Speaker 2

So we still feel good about those numbers moving forward in this environment and environments in the future.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then just a follow-up to clarify, did the 2Q bookings, does that include anything from this new Blattner agreement? And then if you're able to, are you able to say how much of the original 10 gigawatt MSA with Blattner is outstanding?

Speaker 2

Yes. So just for point of clarity on how we calculate backlog and awarded orders, because I do think it varies from company to company amongst our peer set. Backlog awarded orders are calculated when we've got a verbal commitment from the customer, the EPC that they have won the project and we have a substantial amount of engineering design work done. So in the case of Blattner and this new agreement, none of the new 12 gigawatts would be included in our backlog and awarded orders because these are projects out into the future in which they haven't yet won nor we have started designing. So although we've got an agreement in place, it is not included in our backlog and awarded orders.

Speaker 2

As far as the original agreement, we'll provide specifics, but you can think of that as maybe at the halfway point.

Speaker 7

Okay, understood. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thanks Mark.

Operator

The next question is from Jordan Levy from Truist. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks. It's Moe on for Jordan. I have two questions here. First one, in the press release, you mentioned there are changes being made in the planning process for this year and next. I know it's still too early to give guidance for 2025, but how are you thinking about activity levels based on your current commercial activity?

Speaker 8

Thanks. And I have a follow-up.

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes, as I mentioned during Brian's question, we're very pleased with our commercial execution. Quoting still remains at an all time high. We're excited that our backlog and awarded orders have reached record levels, and we love the 1.3 book to bill ratio. So we feel very strongly about how we're executing our new we've got some new commercial strategies, new teammates, and I think we're doing quite well in that area.

Speaker 2

As far as 2025 goes, given the level of volatility with these projects and the relative uncertainty around delays, it's just too early to call the ball on 2025. So I'm not going to do that. Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 8

Sorry, yes, I was on mute. Yes, I mean, great to see international continue to ramp and increase as a percentage of backlog. So what dynamics are you seeing in those markets? I mean Africa, Latin America, Middle East, like you just mentioned and how does that differ from what you're seeing in the U. S.

Speaker 8

In terms of project slowdowns? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, for the international business that we've got booked today, I would say large projects, longer sales cycles. As you can imagine, where these projects are just construction at its core is not as easy as it might be in a state here in the U. S. So longer project cycles is probably the biggest thing to point out.

Speaker 2

Look, we're excited about our international market opportunity. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, 63 gigawatts of opportunities. We've got a new leader for that business. We have launched the largest suite of products we've ever launched one time just at Ener solar here in June and the feedback we've gotten from customers has been fantastic. So I like our chances in developing organic growth in our focus local markets.

Speaker 2

So more to come on international, but great progress being made.

Operator

The next question is from John Wyndham from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, great. Thanks for taking the questions. I was hoping you could just help bridge the gap on I think you had mentioned $40,000,000 pushed out of 2024 to 2025. However, I think the total revenue coverage more like $70,000,000 to 90 $1,000,000 Is that just go get business that's not going to happen now? Just if you could help bridge that.

Speaker 4

Really appreciate it. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, John. Yes. So exactly $40,000,000 pushed out into 2025. And look, this volatility in the marketplace has made it difficult for us to close difficult book and turn business within the year.

Speaker 2

So I mean, you hit the nail on the head and that's what gets you to the numbers that you mentioned, just a challenging volatile market. But again, pointing out on the project business that have pushed out. Those are still good projects for us. Just to reiterate, no projects canceled in the quarter, just pushed out to the right.

Speaker 6

Appreciate it.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks so much. Can you talk about what your win rate was versus quotation activity during the quarter and how that compares to where you've been historically?

Speaker 2

Yes. Colin, we have not good to hear from you, Juan. We've not disclosed our win rate in the past, not going to do that today. What I will say though, we talked about is we have identified that approximately 30% of the total available market of U. S.

Speaker 2

Utility scale solar was going basically underserved by Shoals in the past. That was either due to us not being aligned with one specific customer, whom we are now aligned with and a group of customers that have just gone underserved. So look, I think, Shoals has had historically a strong win rate on jobs. My focus now is maintaining that win rate and hopefully applying it to this new segment of the market approximately 30% that over a period of 3 years will represent 30 gigawatts of opportunity for us. So I look for the batting average to stay strong, but also the plate appearances to increase for those baseball fans out there.

Speaker 2

So again, we're excited about our commercial execution.

Speaker 4

Appreciate it. And then in Europe, obviously, it's a nice start out of the gate with the new products. Can you talk about whether you're adding incremental customers here? Are these existing customers? Or you're just actually finally getting over the hump with them on new products or new products because of the product configurations?

Speaker 2

Yes. The goal for us, Collin, is to add new customers, right? That's the point of localizing this product offering and really the aggressive push to develop new products in the marketplace. Historically, we have been attacking our international sales with just call it for lack of better terms, a U. S.-based product portfolio, which didn't allow for much opportunity in many markets.

Speaker 2

So we're trying to localize our product assortment, and I think we've done that with our new product launch. And then in some cases, localized production. So making good headway there. And again, the opportunity for us is to continue to serve our export customers, which we've had great success with, but also drive new organic growth in our focus countries or focus regions rather.

Speaker 4

Thanks so much. Appreciate it, guys.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Colin.

Operator

The next question is from Philip Shen from ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Guys, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow-up on the price topic. Some of our channel checks with some of your customers suggest you may have lowered price recently to the tune of maybe 5% to 10%. Just wondering if you can affirm or confirm that in any way. And then is this something that might be one off or is it across the board?

Speaker 10

And if you're able to maintain margin, as you mentioned earlier, is it because you have cost outs that are helping you with that? I know you've had some copper increases here, but you're contracting in such a way that it's all passed through. So, exiting out the raw material increases, if you can talk through the pricing, that would be fantastic. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Yes. Phil, I'll answer that pretty simply is, look, we feel that our pricing has remained fairly consistent. No huge changes in our pricing strategy in the marketplace. And you hit it on the head where we're basically flowing commodities through our products and don't have exposure to commodities with inventory as projects are I'm sorry, inventory raw materials are procured as the project is booked. So yes, I appreciate your channel checks.

Speaker 2

I'm happy to say and it sounds like you're hearing we're winning some projects in the marketplace, but no change to our pricing strategy dynamics.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks, Brandon. And yes, we have identified you guys continue to do well with bookings. You showed that to us today. And it seems like bookings could have sell in the back half and you can win shares as we get through 25.

Speaker 10

Wanted to just check-in, so that's the kind of the bookings kind of front end element. You talked about earlier with the guide down that there wasn't a specific reason. It was kind of an amalgamation of everything that's been happening. But the main change that we've noticed in the market since your Q1 call has been the Southeast Asia AD CBD. And when we pulled 25 asset owners, customers of yours, I think 40% of them cited that they pushed out 25 CODs and of the 40%, most of them cited Southeast Asia as one of the reasons why.

Speaker 10

So maybe that's coming back to you in terms of module availability, maybe they're not saying Southeast Asia specifically. Just curious if you can give us a little more color as to the guide down. Is module availability a reason? And perhaps as a result, Southeast Asia AD CBDs could actually be one of the key drivers? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Phil. I think that AD CBD is a driver. It is not a main driver for us. So as we get projects push out, we understand the reasons why those are being pushed out. And a swap to modules also incorporates really a redesign of our product, sometimes a minor redesign and sometimes a significant redesign, say, if you were moving from bifacial to thin film, right?

Speaker 2

So it is a reason. It is not the top reason from the customer feedback that I get and also the design team that is interacting with our customers every day and working on these projects. The prevailing reasons that we've heard more recently is site permitting and interconnection. I mean, those are the big ones with probably site permitting being the top of the list. So it is a factor, but it is not the factor of the guide now.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks, Brandon. One last quick one. Do you have a sense for when peak pain on-site permitting and interconnection could be? I mean, is it around the corner?

Speaker 10

Or do you think this can persist for some time? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Phil, I wish I knew. Hopefully, it ends soon, right? I mean, I think with the backlog of permitting and interconnections, I think we're in for turbulent times here for the foreseeable future. So it's a challenge for our customers.

Speaker 2

It's a challenge for us.

Speaker 10

Got it. Okay. Thanks, Brandon. I'll pass it on.

Operator

The next question is from Maheep Mandloi from Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks for taking the questions here. And I apologize if this was addressed earlier, but just wanted to understand the gross sort of the EBITDA margin or gross margin decline in the guidance for the second half over here. Is this a function of revenue or volumes here or any more design work required as customers push out some projects here?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Maheep, for the question. I mean, it's mostly just the leverage on the operations side and leverage on our SG and A expense guidance. Maybe, Dominic, I'll kick it over to you to maybe give some color to that if you'd like.

Speaker 3

Yes. The only thing I would add is that with some of the projects being delayed, it's kind of difficult on the labor force as we're ramping to have some of the production capacity ready to deliver for the customers. And when the projects push, we're left with less efficient workforce than we desire. We called that out in the Q2. We're trying to be careful about how we ramp.

Speaker 3

We don't want to whipsaw our workforce, but fundamentally, it's between those two factors as we're ramping for production, but these are lower numbers and so we are losing a little bit of leverage.

Speaker 9

Got it. Understood. And just on the buybacks here, any thoughts or algorithm on how you would kind of exercise those going forward or at what prices?

Speaker 2

Tom, you want to take that?

Speaker 3

Sure. So, yes, fundamentally, as you recall, the Board authorized up to $150,000,000 but we just want to start with some cash on hand. We did a $25,000,000 ASR that's been completed. We believe that we have much better value for the long term for our shareholders in a number of ways and we want to be very open to looking at things like our organic growth, international markets and expansions and perhaps M and A. So I don't want to use up all the dry powder necessarily on a share repurchase.

Speaker 3

Clearly, with the stock price trading where it is, we believe it's a long term disconnect from the value that we believe is happening long term that we can continue to drive. So I don't think if we announce something else with the available $125,000,000 of share repurchase, we would announce that publicly. But at this point, nothing has been announced.

Speaker 9

Got it. Appreciate that. I'll take the rest offline. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Kashy Harrison from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 11

So my first one, just given the recent guidance for Visions, all the market commentary, it's clear that predictability here is deteriorating. And so I was wondering if you could just give us the market some color on maybe some initiatives that are underway internally to improve your forecast. I'm just trying to understand what you're doing internally to avoid another guidance revision when we're back here on this call in November.

Speaker 2

Tashi, yes, thanks for the question and fair question, right? Again, we're experiencing a volatile market. I know that is that's extremely frustrating. It's frustrating for us. It's a challenge to plan labor, as Dominic pointed out.

Speaker 2

Look, we are touching these projects, touching the EPCs. We've got a process. We're looking at this stuff on a weekly basis and summary review on a monthly basis. And we're collecting as much information from the EPCs as we can, including what panels they're using, what trackers they're using, permitting, notice to proceed. So that data is collected in our CRM and it's reviewed, as I said, on a weekly basis.

Speaker 2

So we're trying to call this thing as accurately as we can. I think, look, it's not a challenge that is unique to Shoals right now. On time installs are the lowest we've seen in 18 months. And it's a challenge for us to predict our customers' delays. So yes, again, I know it's a frustration.

Speaker 2

It's frustrating for us. We feel good about our revised guidance for the back half of the year and it's the best estimate we can give right now.

Speaker 11

Okay, got it. Fair enough. And just for my follow-up question, I think you indicated that quotes or quoted value was up, I think maybe like 50% year over year. How do you explain the gap between quotes being up year over year, but orders being down year over year? Is that just a time lag?

Speaker 11

Is there some other explanation, the elections? Or what's going on there? What's the story there?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, it's just the elongation of these project cycles, right? That much has been consistent here the last couple of quarters. We've talked about it. When we think about when we have a project identified to the time it takes to get to an awarded order status and then awarded order to actual purchase order or backlog in our terms, there is an elongation to that.

Speaker 2

It is a change to the environment. I think long term, it's not necessarily a terrible thing because we've got better visibility, longer visibility, although it is somewhat volatile right now, we at least have the visibility to these projects. So quote volumes are up. And then also, again, our backlog and awarded orders, if you think about from a year over year period to period standpoint are up 18%. Again, it's just that conversion from awarded order to revenue.

Speaker 11

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Donovan Shafer from Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. So first, with the 12% in the international backlog, I know that, that is a longer conversion time there, but just kind of trying to anticipate what that could look like. And I think you've provided some commentary on this before, but can you remind us, is it tending towards combiner boxes or more towards BLA type? And I know like even with combiner boxes, is you guys can have that be a system sale. So is it like a design system sale or more component sale and is it more of the combiner box variety or more of the BLA?

Speaker 6

If you can just impact that, that'd be great.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, Donovan. I would classify our backlog in awarded orders internationally is more of a solution sale than less. I'm not going to give project to project specifics, but they are for the most part solution sales.

Speaker 6

And are the solution sales primarily combiner bar? No.

Speaker 2

When we talk about So when we talk

Speaker 10

about a solution sale,

Speaker 2

those for the most part would include BLA in this case.

Speaker 1

And they are customed to resolve it.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean they're not a component sale. They're custom engineered sites. And I would say a full solution is probably a good way to characterize this.

Speaker 6

Fantastic. That's good to hear. And then as a follow-up, you talked about regaining customers where you had lost some wallet share. And I'm curious if you could clarify when you say that, sometimes you talk about wallet share, it's about how much of the for a given project, say, like a gigawatt project, you could say, well, gee, we lost wallet share because we still won the project, but we didn't get maybe the wire management solution included or something? Or is it a case where you actually were not winning as many projects with a particular customer and so it's sort of almost had a market share component to it?

Speaker 6

And if you can describe what you did to win that back?

Speaker 2

Yes, great question. Your characterization of wallet share, I would say, both of what you described are the case. You asked about the international projects. Our goal, our sales team's goal is to sell the total solution, right? So anytime we're not selling the total solution, we want to move the customer up the value continuum and sell that total solution.

Speaker 2

So that is one part of it. The other part is the amount of spend we're getting from our EPC customers, whether that's 10% or 20%, 30%, 50%, we want to grow We want to grow with them to make sure that we are doing more and more projects each year. So it is absolutely the case in both situations. As it relates to what have we done, I think I've mentioned in previous calls about us adopting this sales pod structure. I don't think that that's probably a new terminology to anybody out there.

Speaker 2

It is us having a distinct team of folks that are cross functional here at Shoals to serve our EPC customers. So we've got broader touch points within the customer base. We're freeing up our account executives, so they can have more frequent touch points and also grow with new customers. Cold calling on new customers and growing our business and attacking that 30% of the total available market that we may not have been serving in the past. And I think that fundamental change is what is driving the $130,000,000 of backlog and awarded orders with customers where we saw wallet share decline.

Speaker 2

So I like what I'm seeing. I like the fact that we're seeing orders with the new EPC that we announced in the Q1 and we signed another supply agreement with an EPC in the Q2, which was great. So good progress being made on the commercial side, there's no doubt.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Matt Trachtenberg for closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sachi, and thank you to our audience today for joining us today. If you have any additional questions, reach out to investorsshoels.com. We're happy to help you. And finally, everyone is always welcome to join our live webcast of our Investor Day on September 5. That can be accessed on our IR website at investors.

Speaker 1

Scholz.com. Have a great day, everyone.

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Earnings Conference Call
Shoals Technologies Group Q2 2024
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