Strategy Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Tempur Silly Second Quarter 20 24 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, you will have the opportunity to ask questions during the question and answer session. Please note this call is being recorded and I will be standing by should you need any assistance.

Operator

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Aubrey Moore with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call. Joining me today are Scott Thompson, Chairman, President and CEO Foster Rao, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This call includes forward looking statements that are subject to the Safe Harbor provisions of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward looking statements involve uncertainties and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors that could adversely affect the company's business. These factors are discussed in the Company's SEC filings, including its annual reports on Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q.

Speaker 1

Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements. This morning's commentary will also include non GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of this non GAAP financial information can be found in the accompanying press release, which is posted on the company's investor website at investors. Temperssealy.com and filed with the SEC.

Speaker 1

Our comments will supplement the detailed information provided in the press release. And with that introduction, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Aubrey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our Q2 2024 earnings call. I'll begin with some highlights from the quarter and then turn the call over to Bhaskar to review our financial performance in more detail. After that, I'll open up the call for Q and A. In the 2nd quarter, net sales were approximately 1,200,000,000 dollars and adjusted EBITDA was $231,000,000 an improvement of 6% versus the Q2 of 2023.

Speaker 2

Our adjusted EPS grew a solid 9% to $0.63 while also improving our leverage ratio. We're pleased to see our global market outperformance mitigate the impact of softer than anticipated industry volumes. Despite an estimated mid single digit industry decline in the quarter, more than our anticipated low single digit decline for the period, our sales were only slightly below internal expectations. Our strong gross margin performance and solid cost controls resulted in healthy earnings growth in the Q2. Turning to a few of the second quarter highlights.

Speaker 2

First, our U. S. Business outperformed the market driven by the enduring strength of our brands and products and supported by some recently introduced consumer centric innovation and compelling marketing initiatives. Tempur Pedic emerged as our top performing brand again this quarter, supported by our all new Adapt products. As a reminder, our updated collection is designed to alleviate aches and pains by leveraging our innovative Kemper material, which delivers a 20% improvement in pressure relief compared to standard materials.

Speaker 2

The recently introduced active Breeze product, our advanced heating and cooling sleep system priced at approximately $13,800 for a cane has resonated strongly with discerning ultra luxury customers. In addition to active climate management, this product integrates sleep tracker AI and is driving premium tickets upward of $20,000 when bundled with complementary items. While sales volumes expected to be moderate, we believe this ultra premium offering plays an important role in enhancing brand perception and signaling the future for bedding innovation. Our North American direct to consumer business experienced an ASP uplift and 2% sales growth in the quarter driven by our new Tempur Pedic products, clearly outperforming the industry as a whole. Our U.

Speaker 2

S. Tempur retail stores and e commerce platform reported a mid single digit expansion of ASP over the prior year and both our Tempur Pedic and Stearns and Foster e commerce websites experienced strong traffic. Our value price products also performed well in the quarter, supported by our recent distribution wins with 2 large U. S. Bedding retailers.

Speaker 2

These wins drove solid performance within our OEM and Sealy brands, mitigating the impact of soft industry wide demand for entry level and value oriented price points. Overall, our broad based momentum from our new products and distribution wins grow mid single digit growth in North America mattress units. Excluding the growth in our OEM business, North America mattress units were down low single digits and mattress ASP was consistent with prior years, indicating consumers maintaining their willingness to invest in bedding innovation. To support all our brands, products and 3rd party retailers, we continue to execute a balanced media strategy with focus on both broad based and targeted digital outlets to engage consumers throughout their purchasing journey. Our recent creative campaign has shown consumer interest across our product categories, supported the successful launch of our new Tempur offering and fostered the continued momentum of Stearns and Foster collection.

Speaker 2

In the Q2, we introduced new targeted TV spots and digital assets to support the new Tempur Adapt collection, which resonated with our target customer base and is driving strong interest in our newly rolled out lineup. We're also continuing to support the Stearns and Foster product with campaigns that reinforce the brand's 175 year legacy with superior comfort, quality and craftsmanship. This investment in Stearns and Foster Advertising continues to drive among the fastest growing level of Google search interest in the category. In fact, we've realized nearly 30% increase in Stearns and Foster's search interest since January outpacing search interest in the overall category by a factor of 7 times. 2nd highlight, we are pleased with our performance with our international business, which continues to generate strong results against a challenging operating background.

Speaker 2

In the Q2, the Tempur International team delivered solid growth year over year and the Dreams business in the U. K. Also performed well in what has been a challenging market. Our recently concluded international rollout of all new Tempur mattresses, bed bases and pillows is a key driver to these international results. The new lineup features consumer centric innovation, a high level of customization and a broader range of price points ensuring we meet the diverse needs of the consumers across various markets and channels.

Speaker 2

Turning to the 3rd highlight. In the Q2, we achieved consolidated adjusted gross margin expansion of 200 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 170 basis points year over year. Operationally, we continue to drive gross margin efficiencies through enhanced supply contracts, improved labor productivity and optimized logistics. These efforts coupled with normalized commodity prices contributed to a significant gross margin improvement in both North America and our international segments. We successfully translated that gross margin expansion into increased profitability while concurrently investing in certain long term growth initiatives.

Speaker 3

Finally, I'd like to

Speaker 2

highlight the flexibility of our business model, which allows us to remain agile in a dynamic operating environment. Approximately 70% of our total cost flex with sales, helping to mitigate the impact of periods of softer demand. In the Q2, our flexible operating model adapted to the muted operating conditions, while continuing to support our brands and delivering best in class service to our 3rd party retailers. Our strong cash flow and solid balance sheet continue to differentiate us from the competition. In the Q2, we reported a robust $122,000,000 in free cash flow, our strongest second quarter free cash flow since 2021.

Speaker 2

We also reported debt to EBITDA leverage of 2.7 times, well within our target range. And we expect our total leverage to trend down as we prepare for the mattress firm acquisition. And with that, I'll turn call over to Bhaskar. Thank you, Scott. As mentioned in the Q2 of 2024, consolidated sales were approximately $1,200,000,000 and adjusted earnings per share was $0.63 There are approximately $7,000,000 of pro form a adjustments in the quarter, all of which are consistent with the terms of our senior credit facility.

Speaker 2

These adjustments are primarily related to costs incurred in connection with the planned acquisition of Mattress Firm. Turning to North American results. Net sales declined 4% in the 2nd quarter. On a reported basis, the wholesale channel declined 5% and the direct channel grew 2%. North American gross margin improved a robust 200 basis points to 41.9 percent, driven by favorable commodities, operational efficiencies and loss costs.

Speaker 2

These improvements were partially offset by the mix impact of the new distribution win for our OEM business unit. North American operating margin improved 100 basis points to 18.4 percent, driven by the improvement in gross margin, partially offset by investments in growth initiatives, including advertising investments to support our newly launched products and investments to support our growing direct to consumer business. Now turning to international results. International sales grew 1% on a reported basis and 2% on a constant currency basis. As compared to the prior year, our international gross margin improved 170 basis points to 56.6%, driven by operational efficiencies and favorable launch costs.

Speaker 2

Our international operating margin declined 90 basis points to 12.5%, driven by investments in growth initiatives to support our new advertising campaigns and Asia joint venture performance, partially offset by the improvement in gross margin. Now moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items. At the end of the Q2, consolidated debt less cash was $2,400,000,000 and our leverage ratio under our credit facility was 2.7x, within our historical target range of 2x to 3x. We expect to continue to deleverage as we prepare for the Mattress Firm acquisition. Now turning to our 2024 guidance.

Speaker 2

We now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.45 to $2.65 At the midpoint of the range, this represents a 6% growth year over year, a notable expansion of profitability in a prolonged challenged market. Our guidance is based on slight sales growth in the back half of the year, resulting in full year sales that are approximately consistent with the prior year. This also considers our expectation that 2024 U. S. Bedding industry unit volumes will be down mid single digits, which implies the industry headwinds will moderate sequentially, but will continue through the back half of the year.

Speaker 2

Our sales performance outperforming the industry due to recent distribution wins in the U. S. And the continued success from the new product launches, with advertising spend approaching $475,000,000 as we support our leading brands and new products, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of approximately $940,000,000 at the midpoint of the range. Our guidance also considers the following allocation of capital in 2024: CapEx of approximately $140,000,000 down significantly from prior years as our major capital projects are complete. This level of spend is driven by maintenance CapEx of 110 and growth CapEx of approximately $30,000,000 and a quarterly dividend of $0.13 an increase of 18% year over year.

Speaker 2

Lastly, I would like to flag a few modeling items. For the full year 2024, we expect D and A of approximately $200,000,000 to $210,000,000 interest expense of approximately $130,000,000 to $135,000,000 on a tax rate of 25% with a diluted share count of 179,000,000 shares. With that, I will turn the call back over to Scott. Thank you, Bhaskar. Nice job.

Speaker 2

Turning to a brief update related to the Mattress Firm acquisition. I'm pleased to share that we've recently successfully executed a new post closing supply agreement with 1 of Mattress Firm's medium size mattress suppliers. This is one of several post closing supply agreements that we have executed in preparation for our planned acquisition of Mattress Firm and is consistent with our plan for Mattress Firm to continue as a multi branded retailer. We'll not be providing any further comments on Mattress Firm Acquisition beyond what we've shared on our July 8 update call, a replay of which you can find on the investor website. And because we're in litigation, we will not be taking any questions on the acquisition this morning.

Speaker 2

Thank you for your understanding as we move through this process. And with that operator, please open the call up for questions.

Operator

We'll take our first question from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

I want to start with the demand side of the equation. There's been obviously a lot of focus on the health of the consumer and overall demand trends through the quarter. Can you talk about how things did change as we move through the Q2? And how you're thinking about the setup relative to your guide for the back half to be up back half revenues to be up modestly, the full year flat with the volumes down mid single digits. Just put some context to that perhaps around those parts and how we should think about it relating to the broader consumer?

Speaker 3

Sure. Thank you for your question. I mean, if you look at the pace of sales during the quarter, the quarter started out, I'll call it solid positive. I think that was probably retailers kind of loading up for the holiday and we're fairly optimistic going into the holiday. Then I think the sell through was a little weak during the holiday and sales were a little bit lighter towards the end of the quarter.

Speaker 3

And even though you didn't ask, but to get full context, then you have to get after quarter end, sales kind of got back to what I'll call normal and we're solid to call it flattish post quarter end with high end, Tempur actually being positive after sixthirty. So that's kind of the trend. On the setup, Bhaskar, you want to talk about the guide and I think

Speaker 2

the primary reconciling item is probably share gain that we continue to

Speaker 5

have each quarter. Absolutely. So when you think about the back half, as you pointed out Susan, we would expect slight growth in the back half and let's say international doing a bit better than the U. S. And as we think about from a share opportunity standpoint, the continuation of what we've seen continue to outperform the competitive set and fundamentally that is focused on the new distribution that we have in our OEM channel as well as the continued success that we have with new products on the Tempur side of the plant.

Operator

We'll take our next question from ravi Jagdrawish with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 7

I just wanted to add, when you think about the promotional environment across the industry, it looks like price has held up even though the end market has been a little bit choppy. How do you think about pricing through the back half and into next year with the challenging end market environment. Have you seen any changes on the broader promotional environment?

Speaker 3

Sure. I'd say that the promotional environment is probably a tad bit more promotional this year than same period last year. Generally that takes the it's been on promotional for a longer period of time as opposed to we'll call it depth of the promotion. Some of the manufacturers who have excess capacity and that some share issues have become a little bit more promotional. If you look at the way we think about it, we try to match promotions, but we also focus mainly on profits and share gain.

Speaker 3

We had what I

Speaker 2

call reasonable share gain in the U. S. And good share gain internationally in sales. If you look at share gains from

Speaker 3

a profit standpoint, I imagine our profit performance would stand up extremely good share gains from a profit standpoint. But I would expect if the market stays kind of bouncing around the bottom or soft, it will be in a slightly more promotional environment as far as length of periods, but not depth as far as ASP.

Operator

Question comes from Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning, Vi. Thanks for taking my question. Oscar, I want to switch over to gross margins. Clearly, a lot going on in the industry. You guys are regaining from the operational efficiencies.

Speaker 6

You have deleverage, maybe some commodity tailwinds and different things with the new manufacturing facility. But you strip all that out, how do you view this level of gross margins? Is it sustainable? Is it over earning? Is there anything we should keep in mind about this as we think about eventually getting to an industry recovery and immediately predicting that is becoming harder and harder to do on a quarterly basis?

Speaker 5

Bobby, great question. The way I think about our gross margin performance, we start seeing green shoots in the back half of last year, really driven by the operational productivity. Just as a reminder, back in the day, coming out of COVID, we made some investments to support our customers and we committed to ourselves that we would get that back. And what we've seen here from an operational activity standpoint is that we're well within that journey. And when I think about our gross margin, what I'm really excited about is really the durability of what we've been able to demonstrate.

Speaker 5

So the operational efficiencies that we saw in the Q2, that does have legs, it has legs and it's going to drive gross margin and EBITDA improvement both sequentially as well as year over year when you get into the back half of the year. And as I think about 2025, this is just as I mentioned before, this is just the beginning of the journey, it's not the end of the journey. So there there's opportunity left, not only from a gross margin standpoint, but that flowing through from an EBITDA margin standpoint as well.

Speaker 2

I'd also add to that is

Speaker 3

I think everybody knows it's a lot easier to get gross margin expansion when the market is growing. So to be able to deliver really strong gross margin performance in a softer market is outstanding. I think really bodes well for when the market turns around.

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Thank you so much

Speaker 2

for taking my question. Good

Speaker 8

morning. I know this is a tough question to answer, but if interest rates come down, but that's because unemployment is weakening, What does that mean for the outlook for units and overall industry revenues for the next 18 months? And then separately, it does seem like as the industry softness continues, some of the players are pulling back on promotional activity and advertising in an effort to preserve profitability. Doesn't that create an opportunity for Tempur Sealy to be more aggressive, gain even more market share and be in an even better spot coming out of this downturn? Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for your question. First of all, let's do interest rates, because it's kind of interesting. And I'm going to call it 100 basis point decline in interest rates, just kind of trying to put some math around it. And if you look at our business model as we sit today, 100 basis point decline in interest rates generate what, Oscar, probably about $10,000,000 worth of EBITDA, right?

Speaker 3

And that's probably a little bit more than you would probably Correct. And that's probably a little

Speaker 1

bit more than you would probably initially

Speaker 3

think if you look through our variable debt. But the piece that you're probably missing is we also get a benefit on the retail side because of the cost of financing. And our direct business has gotten to be a reasonable size. So we pick up about $5,000,000 in interest savings from our variable debt and then we pick up another call it $5,000,000 in reduced cost in financing through our retail operations. So that'd be the first kind of point.

Speaker 3

That's the direct benefit. Obviously, there's also indirect benefit, which we don't try to compute, which allows our retail customers to help drive traffic through called aggressive interest rate offers. So a little more interest sensitive probably than you would think and clearly would be a tailwind for us and the industry. As far as like strategy, you're talking about as far as companies, some manufacturers that might be pulling back on advertising due to financial concerns. Those financial concerns have been here for quite a while.

Speaker 3

People have pulled back. I don't think there's more pullback in the industry from that standpoint. And yes, it has been an opportunity for us to gain share and we continue to gain share in the U. S. And overseas.

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Was hoping you could just talk about the North American business maybe with a few more specifics. I think if we're looking at industry data points, generally suggests that Q2 was less negative than Q1 industry wide, but your sales did get a little bit worse. So could you pull that apart a bit maybe with the lapping of floor models and did anything change on the competitive front?

Speaker 5

Absolutely. Just from a quantitative standpoint, let's say that the industry was slightly better sequentially from a Q1 to a Q2. However, when you look at our performance, just be mindful on a year over year basis, we did have large floor models on a year over year basis. So when you on a print, we've got 6% up on units, really being benefited from the new distribution. And if you were to factor out floor models, we still captured share on a year over year basis.

Operator

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes with Trist. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thank you. My question on international. You said in the prepared comments it would probably be greater growth or higher numbers than domestic. The 2% excluding currency on the quarter, is that kind of what you're expecting for the second half or what directionally number are we looking for?

Speaker 5

Good question. Just one thing to be mindful of in the first half of prior year, that's when the new products are launching. So what we commented on is that the underside of the underlying legacy international business has been approaching double digit growth through the back half of last year. And once you factor out 4 models is you see that again. So as what's implied in the guide in the back half of the year is call it mid to high single digit growth from an international perspective.

Speaker 5

And really what's happening is it's not an improvement necessarily in trend. It's just now you can see the growth because we're not comping the floor models.

Operator

And we will move next to Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

I will follow-up on the margin side of things. Bhaskar wondering if there's any more color you could share about how you're thinking about margins in 3Q and 4Q? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Absolutely. So, David, the bottom line from a gross margin and EBITDA margin standpoint is in each quarter, we would expect to both of the margins to improve both in Q3 and Q4. Just as a reminder, most of our or seasonally the 3rd quarter is the biggest. So just as historical pattern would indicate, our gross margins in the Q3 would be higher in Q3 versus Q4. Again, we would see expansion both in the EBITDA margin as well as gross margin, both sequentially as well as a year over year basis.

Speaker 5

However, one thing to be mindful is the rate of expansion that we saw in the first half, we would expect a little bit less than that in the back half as we start lapping some of our productivity initiatives. The other items I would just call out is the beauty of our business model is that we do have some natural flex in the business. So from an advertising standpoint, we call that about $475,000,000 versus where we were prior. So as you think about phasing of that, just think about holding that rate in the back half of the year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks a lot and good morning. I'd like to follow-up on the share performance in the U. S. It seems like you are still gaining share, but especially if you strip out some of the OEM business wins, the share gains are more limited and that could be within the higher end potentially. So any commentary there would be helpful.

Speaker 10

And then relatedly, as we see the antidumping measures go into effect in the U. S? Are you seeing inventory levels of the importers coming down such that we could see more share gains for you guys at the lower end of the industry despite the excess capacity that many manufacturers in the U. S. Have?

Speaker 3

Yes. Let me see if I can unpack some of that, Bhaskar and then you can clean me up. I mean the second part of your question, yes, I do think the inventories are coming down from the imported goods. And yes, theoretically that should benefit us on the low end. As you know, there's relatively a little profit at that low end.

Speaker 3

So I don't think it'll be huge to us from a profit standpoint, maybe from a sales or unit standpoint, it'd certainly be somewhat of a tailwind.

Speaker 2

When you go to share gain, everything that we've seen

Speaker 3

when you look at it from an industry standpoint, we're talking U. S, it would indicate that we gained share in the Q2. The amount of share gain is probably less robust than it was in the Q1, probably mostly due to promotional activity, which we chose not to participate in. So it's been slightly less. But as I think I've explained before, we manage sales and profits, not just sales.

Speaker 3

So it's been a little bit less. But everything I've seen, I would expect us to have share gains in the U. S. For the next few quarters based on what I can see and I just can't see any further out than that. On the international side, I would say our share gains probably expanded in the second quarter versus the Q1 as Oscar mentioned is the new product is doing very well internationally and we're more getting moving more into the meat of the market internationally.

Operator

Our next question comes from Philip Lee with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. It seems like newness continues to be a big driver of demand in the space. So can you speak about how some of your newer products are performing relative to the rest of the assortment? And then any key drivers behind the variance in performance, whether it's price, advertising or just consumer appetite?

Speaker 11

And then anything about how we should think about sustainability of

Speaker 2

that going into next year? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. I mean, the newer products almost by definition performed better than the older products and the new shiny penny on the floor. The Adapt product has been viably successful. We're looking forward to a relatively large and what would be the largest launch in Sealy's history of the 2025 Sealy brand, which we would expect to be very robust no matter what the industry is as we launch that product. What drives business is obviously advertising, consumer confidence, innovation.

Speaker 3

Those things continue to be foundational in the industry. I don't know, Bhasti, can you add anything to this question?

Speaker 2

No, I think

Operator

Thank you. We will move next with Laura Campine with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thanks for taking my question. It's really about your marketing spend. I think maybe last quarter you talked about continuing to spend to try to drive people to the

Speaker 2

category, which

Speaker 12

may or may not be working. So I just wanted to talk about where those marketing dollars are going, if you've switched channels at all or focus whether it comes to top, bottom or mid funnel?

Speaker 3

Yes. Great question. As I said in the prepared remarks, it's kind of a balanced media mix. We really haven't changed the mix. We have redirected some of our advertising dollars to support promotional activity.

Speaker 3

So the way we think about it is we moved a little bit from the top of the funnel, which is to drive customers into retail stores and moved some of those dollars more to promotional expense so that our product is on sale at the same time other products are on sale. We've had a little bit of a mismatch last couple of quarters on that and we've decided to go ahead and match off. So when a customer comes in, our product will be on sale like others. The good news is it's pretty much EBITDA neutral for us as we just shift around the dollars between advertising and promotion.

Operator

We'll move next with Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Great. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about commodity costs tailwind for gross margin this quarter. Could you just expand on kind of the puts and takes that drove that? And then elaborate on the expectations embedded in the guide for the second half?

Speaker 10

Thanks so much.

Speaker 5

Absolutely. So from a commodity standpoint, call it about 100 basis points benefit on a year over year perspective. And when I think about the puts and takes, I would say the tailwinds that we've seen, whether it be steel, chemicals, TDI, MDI, cotton, etcetera, is that those continue to help us. However, one thing that we are mindful of and it's embedded in the guide is just the cost of transportation, specifically ocean cargo and whatnot. So that was a bit of a drag in the first half and specifically in the Q2.

Speaker 5

As I think about the outlook is that we do expect the benefit to moderate as we get into the back half. And really as you think about how commodities have flowed over the last year or so is that we started seeing improvements in the back half of the year. So sitting here today, the expectation is that we'll see a little bit of commodity benefit in the back half of the year that will drive the gross margin improvement and EBITDA improvement. However, not to the extent that we've done in the first half.

Operator

We will move next with William Breuder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Good morning. The expectation that industry declines will moderate in the second half of the year, It seems to be a little bit in conflict with what the markets are telling us about how the consumer is feeling and recent anxiety about weakness. I guess is your expectation that lower interest rates are going to benefit you more than they may consumer products spending in general? Or to what do you attribute the fact that you expect trends to the declines to decelerate across the industry?

Speaker 3

Yes, great question because I think it really has more to do with industry specific issues which are the comps are much lower. The bedding market, mattress market specifically went into call it recessiondepression earlier. So our comps are much easier as opposed to us having a more of a sunshine kind of opinion about the general economy. It's really a

Speaker 2

comp issue to step over.

Speaker 5

That's right. And when you think about second half expectations, as Scott said, it is comp driven. And when you think about first half, back half or 2nd quarter to back half, we're just talking about a very slight improvement on a rate year over year perspective.

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks again. So there's been, I guess, some bankruptcy risk with a few of your distributor partners. I think one is going through a full liquidation. Is that factored into the outlook and maybe what percentage would that be as a hit to sales for the back half?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's fully considered in the guidance. It's insignificant to the portfolio. It's also generally low end bedding. So I think what 98% of receivables are current. Clearly in an elongated downturn, you're going to have some we call them, blitz.

Speaker 3

And generally that would be in the retailers who retail primarily lower end mattresses. And we are seeing we've seen some pressure there from some accounts, which are obviously public, but not it's in the guidance, but I also don't think it's I would consider it to be significant from a financial standpoint.

Speaker 5

Just to double tap on that, when you go back in coming out of COVID, the retailers were perhaps in the best health that we've seen at least in my time. However, as Scott mentioned with the elongated downturn is that we have seen some pressure. What I would say is that we are broadly distributed and you can find us as the consumer want to interact with our brands and products is that they can find us an alternative distribution point. And as Scott mentioned, as it relates to from a credit exposure standpoint, very healthy at 98% and it is into the guide. Other thing

Speaker 3

I mentioned is the customer doesn't go away, the customer ends up showing up in another channel. And some of our other channels quite frankly do a better job moving customers into hiring products. And so it's sometimes some of those changes are net positive when you work through the system and you realize how well we're distributed.

Operator

Thank you. And we will take our last question from Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey guys, thanks for letting me get back in. Bhaskar, I was

Speaker 2

just hoping maybe we could talk

Speaker 6

a little bit more detail on the moving parts around floor samples. If my notes are correct, the floor samples given the timing shift this year, would be a year over year revenue headwind to report it 2Q North America revenue? And then what was it to 1Q? Was it actually a tailwind to 1Q 2024? So when I want to think about the sequential performance, I need to neutralize that?

Speaker 5

That's correct. So it was a slight benefit in the Q1, call it 8%. And as you think about the Q2, call it 3% on a consolidated basis with most of it being in North America.

Speaker 3

Very astute observation.

Operator

Thank you. And I will now turn the call over to Scott Thompson for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Thank you, operator. To our over 12,000 employees around the world, thank you for what you do every day

Speaker 7

to make the company successful.

Speaker 3

To our retail partners, thank you for your outstanding representation of our brands. To our shareholders and lenders, thank you for your confidence in the company's leadership and its Board of Directors. That ends our call today, operator. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

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