Vail Resorts Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
September 26, 2024

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Vail Resorts Fiscal 20 24 Year End Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Kirsten Lynch, Chief Executive Officer of Vail Resorts. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our fiscal 2024 year end earnings conference call. Joining me on the call this afternoon is Angela Korch, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, let me remind you that some information provided during this call may include forward looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, and actual future results may vary materially.

Speaker 1

Forward looking statements in our press release issued this afternoon, along with our remarks on this call, are made as of today, September 26, 2024, and we undertake no duty to update them as actual events unfold. Today's remarks also include certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures are provided in the tables included with our press release, which along with our annual report on Form 10 ks were filed this afternoon with the SEC and are also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vailresorts.com. Let's turn to our fiscal 2024 full year and Q4 results. Our overall results for the year highlight the stability and resilience of our advanced commitment strategy.

Speaker 1

Skier visitation declined 9.5 percent compared to the prior year across our resorts in North America and Australia, driven by unfavorable conditions combined with the impact of broader industry normalization post COVID following record visitation in North America during the 2022, 2023 ski season. In North America, snowfall across our Western resorts was down 28% from the prior year and our Eastern U. S. Resorts experienced limited natural snow and variable temperatures. The conditions and industry normalization contributed to an 8% decline in skier visitation at our North American resorts for the winter season relative to the prior year period versus the North American industry skier visitation decline of approximately 9%.

Speaker 1

Despite the industry normalization and challenging conditions, resort reported EBITDA excluding the impact of the Crown Montana acquisition remained consistent with the prior year results. Performance was supported by strong growth in ancillary spending per visit across ski school, dining and rental businesses at our resorts and by strong delivery of the guest experience and cost discipline across our operations. 4th quarter resort reported EBITDA declined from the prior year and expectations primarily driven by underperformance in our Australian winter business. During the Q4, snowfall at our Australian resorts declined 28% from the prior year and was 44% below the 10 year average. The challenging conditions combined with softer demand heading into the winter season negatively impacted Australian skier visitation, which declined 18% in the quarter relative to the prior year period.

Speaker 1

In our North America summer mountain business, while results underperformed our expectations, we are pleased to see 15% revenue growth versus prior year from fewer weather related and construction related disruptions. Turning now to our 2024 2025 past results. Past product sales through September 20, 2024 for the upcoming 2024, 2025 North American ski season decreased approximately 3% in units and increased approximately 3% in sales dollars as compared to the period in the prior year through September 22, 2023. Pass sales dollars are benefiting from an 8% price increase relative to the 2023 2024 season, partially offset by the mix impact from the growth of Epic Day Pass products. Pass product sales are adjusted to eliminate the impact of foreign currency by applying an exchange rate of $0.74 between the Canadian dollar and U.

Speaker 1

S. Dollar in both periods for Whistler Black Home Pass sales. For the period between May 29, 2024 and September 20, 2024, Pass sales Pass product sales trends improved relative to spring Pass product sales through May 28, 2024 with unit growth approximately flat and sales dollars growth of approximately 5% as compared to the period in the prior year May 31, 2023 through September 22, 2023, due to the expected renewal strength following the Memorial Day deadline, which we believe reflects delayed decision making. Even to date through September 20, 2024, the Pass business achieved growth among renewing pass holders, particularly among our most tenured pass holders who have had a pass for 3 years or more, demonstrating strong loyalty to the guest experience at our mountain resorts and the compelling value proposition of our pass products. The decline in total units versus last year was driven by a decline in new pass holders.

Speaker 1

Within new pass holders, we saw growth from lapsed pass holders, guests who previously purchased passes that did not buy a pass in the previous season, offset by a decline in new pass purchases from guests in our database who purchased lift tickets in the past season as well as a decline from guests who are completely new to our database. The decline in lift ticket visitation in the past season driven by challenging weather and industry normalization reduced the audience size of guests who purchased lift tickets in the past season to drive conversion into pass holders. And the weather may have delayed the decision making timing for new guests. Overall, unit performance is consistent across destination and local guest segments, and Epic Day Pass products achieved modest growth modest unit growth driven by strength in renewing pass holders. As we enter the final period for season pass sales, we expect our December 2024 season to date growth rates to be relatively consistent with our September 20 24 season to date growth rates.

Speaker 1

Now I would like to turn the call over to Angela to further discuss our financial results, Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan and fiscal 2025 outlook.

Speaker 2

Thank you. As Kirsten mentioned, our overall results for the year highlight the stability and resilience for advanced commitment strategy. Net income attributable to Vail Resorts for fiscal 2024 was $230,400,000 or $6.07 per diluted share compared to net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $268,100,000 or $6.74 per diluted share in fiscal 2023. The decrease in net income attributable to Vail Resorts was primarily due to an increase in our provision for income taxes, decreased resort reported EBITDA, an increase in interest expense and an increase in depreciation and amortization expense, primarily due to capital projects recently completed at our resorts and assets acquired at Crown Montana. Turning to our resource efficiency transformation plan.

Speaker 2

Over the past decade, Vail Resorts has expanded significantly, growing from 10 to 42 owned and operated mountain resorts in 4 countries, more than doubling our workforce. During that expansion, the company captured initial acquisition synergies in corporate support functions and through technology integration. However, as we have shared publicly over the past 2 years, the company has a unique opportunity to further transform resource efficiency given the scale of our 42 owned and operated mountain resorts, a common enterprise wide technology ecosystem and robust data and analytics capabilities. The company is implementing a 2 year resource efficiency transformation plan to create organizational effectiveness and scale for operating leverage as the company expands and grows globally. The transformation plan is focused on 3 pillars scaled operations, a best in class global shared services model and an expansion of workforce management.

Speaker 2

We expect that the transformation plan will achieve $100,000,000 in annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal 2026 with approximately $27,000,000 to be realized in fiscal 2025 and approximately $67,000,000 realized in fiscal 2026, all before one time costs. We expect the efficiencies to be partially offset by one time operating expenses of approximately $15,000,000 in fiscal 2025 and approximately $14,000,000 in fiscal 2026. In addition, we expect capital investments of approximately $6,000,000 in calendar year 2025 and approximately $12,000,000 in calendar year 2026. The company's mission is to create an experience of a lifetime for our guests. The transformation plan is designed to prioritize delivering the company's mission while also providing scale and operating leverage for future growth.

Speaker 2

Now turning to our outlook for fiscal 2025. The company is providing its initial guidance for the year ending July 31, 2025 and expects net income attributable to Vail Resorts to be between $224,000,000 $300,000,000 for fiscal 2025. The company expects Resort Reported EBITDA for fiscal 2025 to be between $838,000,000 $894,000,000 including an estimated $15,000,000 in one time costs related to the multi year resource efficiency transformation plan and an estimated $1,000,000 of integration related expenses specific to Crown Montana. As compared to fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 guidance includes the assumed benefit of a return to normal weather conditions after the challenging conditions in fiscal 2024, more than offset by a return to normal operating costs and the impact of the continued industry normalization impacting demand. Additionally, the guidance reflects the negative impact from the record low snowfall and related shortened season in Australia in the Q1 of fiscal 2025, which is expected to result in a $10,000,000 decline of resort reported EBITDA compared to the prior year period.

Speaker 2

After considering those items, we expect resort reported EBITDA to grow from price increases, ancillary spending, the resource efficiency transformation plan and the addition of Crown Montana for the full year. At the midpoint, the guidance implies an estimated resort EBITDA margin for fiscal 2025 to be approximately 28.6 percent or 29.1% before one time costs from the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan and integration expenses. The guidance is based on certain assumptions including a continuation of the current economic environment, normal weather conditions for the 2024, 2025 North American and European ski season and the 2025 Australian ski season and reflects the challenging conditions in Australia for the end of the 2024 winter ski season. Guidance assumes an exchange rate of $0.74 between the Canadian dollar and U. S.

Speaker 2

Dollar related to the operations of Worcester Blackcomb in Canada, an exchange rate of $0.67 between the Australian dollar and the U. S. Dollar related to the operations at Perisher, False Creek and Hotham in Australia, and an exchange rate of $1.18 between the Swiss franc and the U. S. Dollar related to the operations of Vandermont Sidrum and Crown Montana in Switzerland.

Speaker 2

Our balance sheet remains strong and the business continues to generate robust cash flow. As of July 31, 2024, the company's total liquidity as measured by total cash plus revolver availability was approximately $946,000,000 Total liquidity is comprised of $323,000,000 of cash on hand $623,000,000 of combined revolver availability across our credit agreements. As of July 31, 2024, the company's net debt was 3.0 times its trailing 12 months total reported EBITDA. Regarding the return of capital to shareholders, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.22 per share of Vail Resorts common stock that will be paid on October 24, 2024 to shareholders of record as of October 8, 2024. In addition, during the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 100,000 shares of common stock at an average price of approximately $180 for a total of $25,000,000 For the full fiscal year, the company repurchased a total of approximately 0,700,000 shares of common stock during the fiscal 2024 at an average price of approximately $208 for a total of $150,000,000 Additionally, the Board of Directors increased the company's authorization for share repurchases by 1,100,000 shares to approximately 1,700,000 shares.

Speaker 2

We will continue to be disciplined stewards of our shareholders' capital, prioritizing investments in our guest and employee experience, high return capital projects, strategic acquisition opportunities and returning capital to our shareholders, while always prioritizing the long term value of our shares. Now I'll turn the call back to Kiersten.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Angela. We remain dedicated to delivering an exceptional guest experience and we'll continue to prioritize reinvesting in the experience at our resorts, including consistently increasing capacity through lift terrain and food and beverage expansion projects. As previously announced, we expect our capital plan for calendar year 2024 to be approximately $189,000,000 to $194,000,000 excluding incremental capital investments in premium fleet and fulfillment infrastructure to support the official launch of Myopic gear for the 2024, 2025 winter season, growth capital investments at Andromat Sudrun, reimbursed civil capital and investments at Crown Montana, including $13,000,000 of incremental capital investments in premium fleet and fulfillment infrastructure to support the official launch of Myopic Gear, dollars 8,000,000 of growth capital investments at Onvermont Sadrune, dollars 1,000,000 of reimbursable capital and investments at Crown Montana, which includes $3,000,000 of maintenance capital expenditures and $2,000,000 associated with integration activities. Our total capital plan for calendar year 2024 is expected to be approximately $216,000,000 to $221,000,000 The company is launching Myopic Gear for the 2024 2025 winter season at 12 destination and regional mountain resorts across North America, including Kids Gear, and we'll be limiting membership to 60,000 to 80,000 members in the 1st year as the business scales.

Speaker 1

We plan to provide additional updates on My Epic Gear and the ongoing capital needs of the business in December. My Epic Gear provides its members with the ability to choose the gear they want for the full season or for the day from a selection of the most popular and latest ski and snowboard models and have it delivered to them when and where they want it, including slopestyle pickup and drop off every day. In addition to offering the latest skis and snowboards, Myopic gear will also offer name brand high quality ski and snowboard boots with personalized insoles and boot fit scanning technology. The entire My Epic Gear membership from gear selection to boot fit to personalized recommendations to delivery will be all be at the members fingertips in the new My Epic app. In addition to this year's significant investments, we are highlighting some select projects from our calendar year 2025 capital plan with the full capital investment announcement planned for December 2024, including a core capital plan consistent with the company's long term capital guidance.

Speaker 1

At Park City, we are replacing the Sunrise lift with a new 10 person gondola in partnership with the Canyon Village Management Association, which will provide improved access and enhanced guest experience for existing and future developments within Canyon Village. At Perisher, in advance of the 2025 winter season in Australia, we plan to replace the Mount Perisher double and triple chairs with a new 6% high speed lift with capital spending commencing in calendar year 2024 and continuing into calendar year 2025, these projects are subject to approvals. In closing, we greatly appreciate the loyalty of our guests this past season and the continued loyalty of our pass holders that have already committed to next season. With our Australia winter season coming to a close, I would like to thank our frontline team members for their passion and dedication to delivering an incredible experience to our guests. I would also like to thank all of our team members that are working to welcome skiers and riders back to the mountains this coming winter season.

Speaker 1

We are looking forward to a great upcoming winter season in the U. S, Canada and Europe. At this time, Angela and I will be happy to answer your questions. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

Certainly, Ms. Lynch. Thank you. We'll go first this afternoon to Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

Speaker 3

Hi, good afternoon. Hi, Kirsten. Hi, Angelo.

Speaker 2

Hi, Shaun.

Speaker 3

Maybe we could just start with, we're getting a few questions. Obviously, there's a lot going on in the guidance I wanted to make sure I think we were all level set. So Angela, this may be appropriate for you, but I think the punch line we're trying to get to is or and I think some investors are trying to get to is, if we start at last year's guidance and outlook, which at the midpoint was around 9 $40,000,000 Could you help us think about that versus the starting point as we look at this fiscal year before we kind of get into the transformation program? Because to us, it does imply a pretty big difference. And with weather normalizing, I think what we're trying to kind of understand is how much of that or in a normal weather scenario, how much of that difference is from consumer normalization?

Speaker 3

How much is just from maybe run rate cost inflation in the business? And how much is from Australia or any other one timers that we need to think about? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks Sean for the question. I'm going to actually I'm going to start you back from like this year's results. And if you remember, we had 2 big things that we called out in terms of where we missed the original guidance and really being conditions and the normalization that we saw demand. And so as you think about from actual results from this year, there are a few things just to think about.

Speaker 2

We are for the guidance for next year taking into account the return to normal weather conditions assuming of course, that that comes back from what we saw as very abnormal conditions last year. But then that's been more than offset by the return to kind of the normal operating cost and then the impact of continued industry normalization that we are expecting to impact demand for this year. And then for Australia, the Q1 piece that we're calling out there is, as you recall last year, we had called out how much impact we had from weather. But in this current year, we're continuing to see very severe conditions impacting the results in Australia. So our guidance assumes that that impact that we're seeing, which is a $10,000,000 decline in EBITDA versus the prior year period is factored into the guidance for fiscal 2025.

Speaker 2

So after you adjust for those kind of puts and takes, what you're seeing is that the growth is coming from price and ancillary spending and then the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, the $27,000,000 that we announced that will impact this year's results and then of course the addition of Crown Montana.

Speaker 1

I'll just build on that. I agree with that Sean and I'll just note that industry normalization impacted last fiscal year and we are assuming that there is a continued impact into FY 2025.

Speaker 3

And Kirsten, that was sort of my follow-up. If we could just build off that. You did have a little bit of a comment around summer. So what's kind of giving you maybe that outlook or that pause as it relates to any continuation there? Is it what you saw in summer?

Speaker 3

Is it any behaviorally on the past? It looks like things got a little bit better, but maybe you could also sprinkle in your thoughts on just past sales for the remainder of the open sales period?

Speaker 1

Yes. I we talked a little bit about this last time, the normalization that happened last winter, we did not see that impact on pass sales last year because so many passes are committed before the season and then there were some challenging weather. And it was once we got to stabilize weather conditions that we could see that there was some normalization occurring, which is now we believe carrying over into pass sales and the impact into the next year. When we think about FY 2025, we really are re grounding the business in what we believe

Operator

is a normalized industry in terms of participation, frequency and then what we expect

Speaker 1

trend did improve from our Memorial Day trend. Our units season to date are down 3% now and our dollars are up 3%. And we did see improved performance between Memorial Day and Labor Day, which we were very pleased to see. It was driven by the renewal strength and some delayed decision making. I do feel based on what I see in the underlying dynamics of the business, I do feel good about the underlying dynamics, the loyalty, the delayed decision making that we were expecting and where we're lagging, which is really in the new part of the business, lapsed grew, but there's a decline year over year on lift ticket guests converting into a pass because obviously that addressable audience decreased, but also new to the database decreasing.

Speaker 1

When I look at all those underlying dynamics, I do feel confident that we have a year end the season to date results that we'll see in December should be relatively consistent with where we are season to date now.

Speaker 3

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Jeff Stanchall at Stifel.

Speaker 4

Hey, great. Thanks afternoon, Kirsten, Angela. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe starting off here on the announced Resource Efficiency Transformation plan. Kirsten, can you just maybe add a bit of color to which of the functions you're planning to switch from a resort or a regional level to more of the global shared services model?

Speaker 4

And then if you do think about those 3 different pillars that you outlined in the prepared remarks or really however you want to categorize the plan changes, just how do you think about maybe the relative weighting of each in terms of contribution to that $100,000,000 all in cost savings? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thanks for the question, Jeff. When you think about the story of our company the last 10 years, we have grown dramatically. In 10 years, we've grown from 10 owned and operated mountain resorts to 42 owned and operated mountain resorts in 4 countries, doubling the number of employees that we have. And as we went through that journey, we did capture synergies in our corporate support functions and technology integration, but not in our operations. And we now, as we've said publicly multiple times, believe that we're at a unique point in time here to make do something transformational as it relates to resource efficiency.

Speaker 1

And that's because of the scale and our technology ecosystem and the data and analytics we have. I would think about it in 3 different buckets and then I'll talk a little bit, give you a little bit more context on it. Scaled operations, global shared services and then expanded workforce management. Scaled operations is really as you think about us having 42 different owned and operated mountain resorts plus hospitality operations plus retail operations, rental operations, our operations leaders now really have substantial operating best practices. They have been able to see how the ski industry solves the exact same problems completely differently across the U.

Speaker 1

S, Canada, Australia and apply those best practices to get acquisition synergies and launch new operations tools. This is really designed to focus enable our team to focus on the guest experience and reduce some of the administrative burden that gets put on our team and our frontline managers. Global shared services is really about getting to best in class tools and approach that can flex and scale as we grow, especially as we grow globally. So when you think about internal business services and our call centers, internal business services would be, as an example, Jeff, high volume recurring process services to our business functions, things like accounts receivable, payroll support, our internal IT service center. There's a real opportunity here to create a scalable model that can expand as we pursue further global expansion.

Speaker 1

And then expanded workforce management, we've talked about workforce management quite a lot, but we see we've learned a lot. We had a very successful year rolling it out across 37 mountain resorts and now we see the opportunity to expand that further with best practices and additional lines of businesses, additional departments, adding new functionality. Between the three of those, the scaled operations really represents the largest part of the transformation plan and that would make sense because that's where the majority of our cost structure resides. That said, of the people impacts, a portion of the $100,000,000 in cost savings that we will achieve by the end of FY 'twenty six, a portion of that is coming through position elimination. It is less than 2% of the company's total workforce.

Speaker 1

It is 14% of the corporate workforce. It is less than 1% of our operations workforce. And within that, it is 0.2% impact on frontline roles, which is, I think, very important because obviously we are in the business of creating an experience and this is not intended to actually impact the guest experience in any way. It is really about how we create scale and operating leverage as we grow from here going forward. Hopefully that answered some of your questions, but happy to take more.

Speaker 4

Great. No, that answered that question amazingly. Thank you for all that detail. And then maybe for my follow-up, but I'd love to ask Sean's question, but maybe just a slightly different way. A lot of puts and takes, kind of going into the guidance, everyone's trying to parse out some of these one time headwinds.

Speaker 4

I think maybe there's just one variable that everyone had, it might help solve the equation here and that's really on the weather piece of the impact last season. So is there any way you could help quantify for us how much the year on year benefit from normalized weather conditions is embedded in guidance? And maybe if not a firm number, maybe I'll phrase it as, was weather more meaningful last season relative to the demand normalization that you saw? Or was it the other way around? Just however you could kind of frame that, I think, would help a lot.

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. As we talked about last year, we had if you take Cray Montana out of the performance in Q4 and just kind of look at the change we had, it was just over $100,000,000 in terms of the decline from the original guidance. And we really called out that both those two factors on the demand side were both material, both the normalization and the weather. So you can think about them in relatively the same size.

Speaker 2

And offsetting, right, some of that, right, of course, we had some cost actions that were taken in the year, right, that were favorable things like, right, our management incentive program, because obviously we were below our guidance for the year. And so those are the 3 things you can think about from the prior year variances. And the part that we're saying is returning this year, right, is we are assuming that we would get back that weather piece. And then of course, we're thinking about what does it mean that Kirsten just outlined on the continued demand normalization from what we're seeing on kind of that delayed impact from pass sales that's impacting our guidance from next year.

Speaker 4

Perfect. That's extremely helpful. Thank you, Angela. I'll pass it on. Thanks for all the color.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 5

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking our questions. I maybe wanted to just start by trying to see if we could tie some of your comments earlier together. And I guess it's really just can you share how you're thinking about visitation? You talked about, I guess, 2 of the 3 factors being normalization and past units being down, which maybe those are one factor in total, but both of those seem to be a headwind to visitation, again, offset by the fact that you got some recovery on weather.

Speaker 5

So, visitation is down again. Is that how you're thinking about it? Or am I missing something? Is the impact from weather more meaningful than the prior two impacts?

Speaker 2

Hi, Megan, it's Angela. So, yes, as you're thinking about, I think, most of the pieces correctly here, is that weather, right, had an impact last year, both from people who didn't come and we talked about lift ticket guest and we talked about we were down 17% on visitation from that. And so that was a factor of those the weather impacts. And what we saw on past, right, was on weather impacting the frequency of visitation. And so as we talk about weather going forward to next year, we're expecting the kind of frequency, if you will, coming back to us from some of those impacts and also return to some of those missed visitation that we had from people who did not visit on a lift ticket coming back.

Speaker 2

And then the demand normalization that we're talking about is just on, yes, what are we expecting for overall continued impact next year as we're coming off of some of this peak demand that we saw that we didn't see captured in the past results going into last season.

Speaker 1

Okay. That's helpful.

Speaker 5

I'll just

Speaker 1

build on that, Megan. I think the normalization just to build on Angela's comment too is just thinking about it holistically as a North American ski industry normalization, not just the past normalization.

Speaker 5

Right. Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe shifting gears just a little bit more to the transformational resource efficiency efforts that you announced today. I acknowledge that you did spend a considerable amount of time kind of prepping us for this at the Investor Day earlier this year.

Speaker 5

But just thinking about this, I think in many cases when we as analysts and investors sometimes hear about resources efficiency, cost savings efforts that can perhaps be because growth is slowing and company may be entering a more mature state. But in reading, listening to your prepared remarks and reading the commentary on it, it seems like you're saying that it's intended to set you up for the next phase of growth. So is the read there as simple as you're trying to improve operating leverage, improve free cash flow conversion to be able to continue to execute on the strategic acquisition plan? Or is it not as simple as that? Just trying to understand a little bit more about kind of the decision making that kind of went into this announcement.

Speaker 5

Yes.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Megan. I think your description of that is pretty accurate. And the reason why I started the narrative when I answered Sean's question to go back and look at what has happened over the last 10 years, I think it is an important context for where we are today, how rapidly we grew and expanded from 10 owned and operated resorts to 42 owned and operated across 4 different countries and the complexity associated with that. And we really believe that this is about the structure of the company and the way we support our operations to be able to set that up for where we are today to be the most efficient we can be, but also to achieve the long range growth plan that we have. And we have teed this up the last 2 years in our investor conference materials, specifically because we saw that we needed to head in this direction to enable future growth, but even enable the global expansion that we aspire to.

Speaker 1

So really getting our operations a global shared service model and expanding our workforce management puts us in a situation where we can scale and get operating leverage as we expand further into Europe or grow the company. And that is the intention is growth and having the structure to enable the growth.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next now to Laurent Valescu at BNP Paribas.

Speaker 6

Hi. This is Dion Siew on for Laurent. On the cost savings, how much would be reinvested? And for the $100,000,000 are you thinking about that as like a gross savings or net savings?

Speaker 1

The $100,000,000 is a net savings run rate that we would expect to have at the end of FY 'twenty six going into FY 'twenty seven. There's obviously in FY 'twenty five and FY 'twenty six as we publicly disclosed one time costs in operating expense and CapEx, but the run rate savings would we would expect to be $100,000,000 by the end of FY 'twenty six after you get through those one time costs.

Speaker 6

Okay, got it. And then on the buyback, you increased the buyback. Can you talk a little bit more about your priorities in terms of capital allocation, buybacks, continued M and A, dividend, etcetera?

Speaker 2

Yes, I'd be happy to. I mean, I think overall, I'll just say that we've been very disciplined to our approach on capital allocation. And yes, we are continuing to do that. And our priority has been to have high return capital projects to reinvest in and investment in our people. We maintain a balance sheet with flexibility to pursue M and A opportunities.

Speaker 2

And then for kind of return to excess capital to shareholders, we've prioritized the dividend, which we'll continue to do. And we've been opportunistic on the share repurchases. So specifically to what you're asking about in the quarter, we did repurchase $25,000,000 or $150,000,000 for the year. And yes, we'll continue to evaluate that based on what we see for the best return of capital opportunities that we see out there.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Operator

We'll go next now to Brandt Montour of Barclays.

Speaker 7

Good evening, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. So I wanted to start off on demand and just sort of drill in a little bit to some of your comments, Kirsten. Industry level ski visits, you kind of make it sound like we're in this normalization period on the peak post COVID or the peak COVID years. When I look at the ski visits on the average over the last couple of years, those North American ski visits had run 10% to 15% above the average of last cycle, right?

Speaker 7

And that was on poor weather. I just want to get a sense of where you think we're going if we're going all the way back to the average levels of the last cycle and really kind of like why? Like do you see things in your bookings or your surveys or your general conversations with folks and just sort of the nuts and bolts of what sort of gives you a sense we're going backwards, I guess, and where we could bottom out, I guess, if that's probably the best way to answer it, ask it.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brandt. I think that the years of COVID and immediately post COVID had a lot of volatility in the North American ski industry, operating restrictions, border closures in Canada, the global labor shortage, surge in demand. And what we are trying to do as we think about FY 2025 given what we saw in FY 2024 is to really think about normalized ski industry behavior in terms of the participation in the sport in North America, the frequency, normal frequency and then where we fit within that context. So it isn't saying that the industry is going backwards. It's saying, well, the last couple of years have been very volatile as it has been for many parts of travel and leisure.

Speaker 1

And that anchoring assumption here is to anchor to normalized industry behavior and then what that would mean for our company.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks for that. And then a second question is on M and A at the Investor Day. The conversation was around the Alps and achieving some sort of or achieving a network effect over there, which would be an attractive opportunity. I think you were quoted in the article recently on Bloomberg about achieving diversification with M and A.

Speaker 7

And obviously, we know Australia just had a really tough season. It was really about weather. And so I guess the question, has your M and A strategy altered at all? Has it shifted more defensive, I. E, diversification from offensive?

Speaker 7

And does that change sort of your return targets or underwriting hurdles when you think about what you'd really be willing to pay for Premier assets in Europe?

Speaker 1

Thanks. They did focus on diversification in my commentary, but actually diversification and geographic diversification has been a part of our M and A strategy for a very long time. And we always factor that into our decision making about acquisitions that we make, the impact of weather, where the resorts are located. And we will take that same approach, Brent, in Europe as well, factoring that in and trying to make sure that we as we expand and grow there that we are taking into consideration the geographic location or the impact on of weather and climate change on the resorts that we're interested in acquiring. And what we're focused on right now is really executional excellence.

Speaker 1

This is our 1st year having Crown Montana and we have a lot to learn. I just got back from visiting Crown Montana. It has incredible potential. I'm very excited about it. But really what we're focused on is making sure we execute with excellence, build our learnings and then while we're doing that, look for the opportunities to achieve the vision that we have in Europe.

Speaker 1

Thanks for the questions. Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next now to Patrick Scholes at Truist.

Speaker 8

Hi, good afternoon, good evening.

Speaker 1

Hi, Patrick.

Speaker 8

First question is, have you been contacted directly by either the FTC or the DOJ in relation to the Arapaho Basin matter. I ask this because the Epic Pass and the Icon Pass Resorts in Colorado, they account for about 80% of visitation in the state. But Alterra only owns 2 resorts in the state, yet it looks like their acquisition of just a basin is being held up now for going on about 8 months. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks for the question, Patrick. Unfortunately, we really can't comment on that at this time.

Speaker 8

I'm afraid I know the answer to this follow-up question, but do you think there's any reasonable chance of some sort of action involving Vail Resorts or what might limit your ability to purchase more resorts or maintain your existing resorts in the U. S?

Speaker 1

Can you repeat the question, Patrick?

Speaker 8

Do you think if there was some sort of contact from the FTC or Department of Justice that could cause a chance of limiting your ability to continue to own your existing resorts or continue to purchase resorts in the U. S?

Speaker 1

No, not that I'm aware of, Patrick. And as we think about our acquisition strategy, as you know, we are focused on targets within North America that we believe are accretive to our portfolio, and we have a very large focus on expanding in Europe. And ultimately, ideally, we'd love to expand into Japan as well. But there is nothing that we would be aware of that would prevent us from keeping the resorts we own or pursuing acquisitions that we would have in mind. Thanks.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. Can I get one more question? Sure. Go ahead.

Speaker 8

Okay. There is out there the updated Forest Service master plan. I think it has the Vail Mountain 2024 Master Plan Lift Network upgrade proposal. It looks pretty all encompassing. Can you give us any thoughts about potential timing or just something we might see down the road?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Patrick. We well, we're not going to comment on our future plans specifically. And but we as you know as well, we are always looking at investing and making the guest experience better looking for opportunities in areas where we need to invest to deliver the guest experience, but we're not announcing anything at this time on exactly what happens. We will be announcing our full capital plan though in December. Okay.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Patrick. Thanks, Patrick. Thank you. Take care.

Operator

Thank you. We go next now to David Katz at Jefferies.

Speaker 9

Evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Covered a lot of territory and appreciate all of the detail. Just two follow ups. With respect to the corporate reductions, if you could give us just a little more color on, excuse me, what kinds of functions you're reducing is that, elements that sort of reach out to the parks level from corporate?

Speaker 9

Are they is it corporate development in some way that may be executing acquisitions? What kinds of things are you shrinking? And then I have one quick follow-up in another direction. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Hi, David. Thank you. Yes, as I mentioned, our total workforce impact is less than 2%. In corporate, it is 14%. In terms of the 100,000,000 dollars transformation cost savings that we expect to achieve by the end of FY 2026, the biggest portion of that is coming from operations as of course that is where the majority of the cost resides.

Speaker 1

When you think about corporate, it is predominantly impacted by the 2nd pillar of the transformation plan, Global Shared Services. And this is where we are striving to take some of the internal business services that we have and call centers and consolidate those and outsource those into a best in class model. And so examples of internal business services, I mentioned earlier, like accounts receivable or payroll, IT support, our call center, I think, is pretty, self explanatory in terms of what that would be. So the idea would be as we grow, so the same services would be executed and provided, they would just be executed and provided in a different way that is more scalable for us as we grow. And I think the important way to think about the transformation plan for our company is it is very grounded in org effectiveness and scale, because we intend to grow.

Speaker 9

Perfect. And this may sound like a snarky question, but I really intended to have 0 snark in it whatsoever. But can we just talk for a moment about sort of normal weather, right? Does normal weather mean that there's a certain number of days that are impacted because weather just happens at ski resorts? Or like what does how do we sort of think about normal weather?

Speaker 9

And is there a new normal that we maybe should be thinking about?

Speaker 1

Thanks, David. And I that did not come across snarky at all. I think it's a very

Speaker 9

bad question. It's been accomplished. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks for the setup on it, though. We always try to budget assuming normal. Normal means, yes, are there going to be some really good days? Are there going to be some really bad days? Are there going to be some windy days, some icy days, some cold days, some high snow days, low snow days, that is factored in there.

Speaker 1

We have no way of forecasting extreme weather. We have no way of forecasting when it would happen or where it would happen. And so normal weather for us is, yes, factoring in weather variability, but something significant or extreme that happens, we really don't have a way of forecasting that. So it would not take into consideration something extreme. I don't know if that helps.

Speaker 9

It does help. Thank you very much. Good luck.

Speaker 1

Thanks, David.

Operator

We'll go next now to Ben Chaikin at Mizuho.

Speaker 6

Hey, just one question. Thanks for squeezing me in. Understanding that last year had difficult weather, as you think about and reflect on the importance of the single day customer as it pertains to your season pass sales funnel for future periods, does that make you think about the single day pricing or promotion mechanism entered any differently? And then I guess, related, are you doing anything this year to support this channel in order to drive pass sales in the future? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ben. New pass holders come from a couple of different sources. And I think it's important to ground all of us in that. New pass holders come from prospects. So what or what we would call people who are not in our database and are coming to us from a competitive path or competitive resort showing up in our database for the very or at our resorts for the very first time.

Speaker 1

We get new pass holders from that group. We get new pass holders also from people who buy Lyft tickets in the prior season. And we also get a lot of new pass holders from what I'll call lapsed guests. And so those are guests that visited our resort on a lift ticket 3 years ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago, also lapsed guests who had a pass last year or maybe pre COVID and they come back to us. We have strength in bringing lapsed guests back, a reduction in lift ticket and then we are still bringing in new guests that are new to our database, but it is down versus prior year.

Speaker 1

So I just want to ground us in that fact that in terms of does it make us think differently about Lyft tickets, it does not because so few people at our resorts are buying Lyft tickets. We make sure that we have the best guest experience and the best resorts and a portfolio of resorts that is attractive to a wide variety of guests. And I think it's important to recognize that a lot of our resorts are local ski resorts, where the price of a lift ticket is very affordable for people to come in and try the sport. They most of those first time people to the sport are not getting on a plane and flying to Vail Mountain to try the sport. They're trying it at their local ski resort.

Speaker 1

And so to us that portfolio strategy way back when we started buying those local resorts that were outside of major metropolitan areas, that is a huge focus for us on how we bring people in, move them from local resorts to the regional resorts and ultimately through a life cycle, they come visit our destination resorts. And the pricing strategy at each one of those tiers is dramatically different. And we always try to also make sure that we have a wide variety of prices and options available to our guests. But it's not going to change to get really direct about your question. It is not going to change our strategy that we believe that moving the industry or moving our company back to focusing on lift tickets, that that is a good strategy.

Speaker 1

We wholeheartedly believe that advanced commitment is critical to this industry and to our company because we are impacted by climate change. And locking up that revenue and that commitment in advance of the season in exchange for a non refundable commitment rather than the alternative, right, of trying to get more people to buy refundable lift tickets that we are all in on that advanced commitment strategy. And the key for us is to grow. We have a massive database of people to make sure that we continue to grow our Pass business. And even in the face of year over year, if list tickets are down, because there's so many other sources for growth for the Pass business.

Speaker 1

Hopefully, that helps.

Speaker 6

Yes, very helpful. And then I guess related, if I caught it correctly, I think you mentioned that in addition to the single day kind of conversions that there was a decline in the totally new to Vail customers. Maybe if that's correct, maybe just a little bit of color on maybe why is that the industry normalization? Is that residual weather? What is that?

Speaker 1

Yes. That total bucket of new has a couple of different sources. The lapsed portion where their guests have been to our resorts or prior pass holders, we're seeing growth there. List ticket, the addressable size of the audience has decreased, so that has decreased. It is really not driven by our conversion of those people.

Speaker 1

It's really just driven by the audience size. And then new, never shown up to one of our resorts before. It's hard to know because they're not in our database, so we don't know them. What I would suspect is that their decision making about making a commitment, well, I would say their decision making is always closer to when the season starts. So that is really very late in our selling cycle that we'll see the results from those individuals.

Speaker 1

But I do think it is impacted by normalization and I also think it's impacted by the weather this past year. I just can't say for sure at this point, how much of each of those is impacting those individuals. But I do think there's an impact on them, both of them. And because so much of their decision making happens late in the selling cycle, we really won't know how that group performs and what our results are among that audience until we get to our final deadline in December.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Ben.

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today. At this time, I'd like to turn things back to you, Ms. Lynch, for any closing comments.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. This concludes our fiscal 2024 year end earnings call. Thanks to everyone who joined us today. Please feel free to contact me or Angela directly should you have any further questions. Thank you for your time this afternoon.

Speaker 1

Goodbye.

Operator

Thank you, Ms. Lynch. Again, this does conclude Vail Resorts' 2024 year end earnings conference call and webcast. You may disconnect at this time. Thanks again, everyone.

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Earnings Conference Call
Vail Resorts Q4 2024
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