Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Q4 2024 Earnings Conference and Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial in lines are in listen only mode. The format for today's event will be as follows.

Operator

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the Q4 2024, followed by our guidance for the Q1 2025. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Doctor. C.

Operator

C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question and answer session. As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release.

Operator

And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the Q4 of 2024. After that, I will provide the guidance for the Q1 of 2025.

Speaker 1

4th quarter revenue increased 14.3% sequentially in NT, supported by strong demand for our industry leading 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies. Gross margin increased by 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 59%, mainly reflecting a higher capacity utilization rate and productivity gains partially offset by the dilution of 3 nanometer ramp up. With operating leverage, total operating expenses accounted for 10% of net revenue. Thus, operating margin increased by 1.5 percentage points sequentially to 49%. Overall, our 4th quarter EPS was 14.45NT and ROE was 36.2%.

Speaker 1

Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3 nanometer process technology contributed 26% of wafer revenue in the 4th quarter. 5 nanometer and 7 nanometer accounted for 34% 14% respectively. Advanced Technologies defined as 7 nanometer and below accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. On a full year basis, 3 nanometer revenue accounted for 18% of 2024 wafer revenue 5 nanometer, 34 percent 7 nanometer, 17 percent.

Speaker 1

Advanced Technologies accounted for 69% of total wafer revenue, up from 58% in 2023. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 19% quarter over quarter to account for 53% of our 4th quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 17% to account for 35%. IoT decreased 15% to account for 5%.

Speaker 1

Automotive increased 6% to account for 4%. DCE decreased 6% to account for 1%. On a full year basis, HPC increased 58% year on year. Smartphone, IoT, Automotive, DCE increased 23%, 2%, 4% and 2% respectively in 2024. Overall, HPC accounted for 51% of our 2024 revenue.

Speaker 1

Smartphone accounted for 35%, IoT accounted for 6% and automotive accounted for 5%. Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the Q4 with cash and marketable securities of NT2.4 trillion or USD74 1,000,000,000. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by NPL184,000,000,000 mainly due to the increase of $71,000,000,000 in accounts payable and increase of $99,000,000,000 in the accrued liabilities and others. In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days declined by one day to 27 days, while inventory days decreased by 7 days to 80 days primarily due to shipment of N3 and N5 wafers.

Speaker 1

Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the Q4, we generated about NNT620,000,000,000 in cash from operations, spent $362,000,000,000 in CapEx and distributed $104,000,000,000 for the Q1 'twenty four cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased $241,000,000,000 to $2,100,000,000,000 at the end of the quarter. In U. S. Dollar terms, our 4th quarter capital expenditures totaled $11,200,000,000 Now let me recap our performance in 2024.

Speaker 1

Due to the strong demand for our 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer process technologies, we continue to outperform the foundry industry in 2024. Our revenue increased 30% in U. S. Dollar terms to $90,000,000,000 or increased 33.9 percent in NT to NNT2.89 trillion. Gross margin increased 1.7 percentage points to 56.1%, mainly reflecting improvements in overall capacity utilization partially offset by 3 nanometer dilution and higher electricity costs.

Speaker 1

With operating leverage, our operating margin increased 3.1 percentage points to 45.7%. Overall, full year EPS increased 39.9 percent to 45.25NT and ROE increased 4.1 percentage point to 30.3%. On cash flow, we spent US29.8 billion dollars or N956 billion dollars in CapEx, generated N1.8 trillion dollars in operating cash flow and TWD870,000,000,000 in free cash flow. We paid TWD363,000,000,000 in cash dividends in 2024, up 24.5 percent year over year. I've finished my financial summary.

Speaker 1

Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. We expect our business in the first quarter to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI related demand. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our Q1 revenue to be between US25 1,000,000,000 dollars 25,800,000,000 U. S. Which represents a 5.5 percent sequential decline or a 34.7% year over year increase at the midpoint.

Speaker 1

Based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 U. S. Dollar to Nt32.8, gross margin is expected to be between 57% 59%, operating margin between 46.5 percent 48.5 percent. Regarding tax rate, our effective tax rate was 16.7% in 2024. For 2025, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 16% 17%.

Speaker 1

This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our Q4 'twenty four and Q1 'twenty five profitability. Compared to Q3, our 4th quarter gross margin increased by 120 basis points sequentially to 59%, primarily due to a higher capacity utilization rate and productivity gains, partially offset by dilution from the continued ramp up of our 3 nanometer technology. We have just guided our Q1 gross margin to decrease by 100 basis points to 58% at the midpoint.

Speaker 1

This is primarily due to ramp costs associated with N2 and COBAS expansion and the start of dilution from our overseas fabs. As a reminder, six factors determine TSMC's profitability leadership technology development and ramp up, pricing, cost reduction, technology mix, capacity utilization and forward exchange rate. Looking at full year 2025, given the six factors, there are a few puts and takes I would like to share. On the one hand, we are working hard to increase our value. The dilution impact from our N3 ramp is expected to gradually reduce and we expect our overall utilization rate to moderately increase in 2025.

Speaker 1

On the other hand, as we have said before, we forecast 2% to 3 percent margin dilution impact from the ramp up of our overseas fabs. The impact is less than 100 basis points in the Q1 of 2025, but we expect it to grow more pronounced throughout the year as our fabs in Kumamoto and Arizona ramp up. We also expect inflationary costs including higher electricity prices in Taiwan to impact our gross margin by at least 1% in 2025. In addition, there are some ramp up costs associated with N2 and further conversion of N5 to N3 capacity, which together we expect to impact our gross margin by about 1%. Finally, we have no control over the foreign exchange rate, but that may be another factor in 2025.

Speaker 1

Longer term, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate and considering our global manufacturing footprint expansion plans, we continue to forecast a long term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable. Next, let me talk about our 2025 capital budget and depreciation. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years and our CapEx and capacity planning is based on the long term market demand profile. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years. In 2024, we spent US29.8 billion dollars as we continue to invest to support our customers' growth.

Speaker 1

With our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we are well positioned to capture the multiyear structured demand from the industry megatrends of 5 gs, AI and HPC. In 2025, we expect our capital budget to be between $38,000,000,000 $42,000,000,000 as we invest to capture the future growth. Out of the $38,000,000,000 to $42,000,000,000 CapEx for 2025, about 70% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others. Our depreciation expense is expected to increase by high single digit percentage year over year in 2025 as newly incurred depreciation will be partially offset by other notes rolling off depreciation. Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders.

Speaker 1

We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increased cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis. Now let me turn the microphone over to C. C. C.

Speaker 2

Wei:] Thank you, Windho. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with conclusion of 2024 and our 2025 outlook. 2024 was a mixed year of recovery for the global semiconductor industry. AI related demand was strong, while other applications, saw only a very mild recovery as bakery economics condition weigh on consumer sentiment and the end market demand.

Speaker 2

Concluding 2024, the Foundry 2.0 industry, which we define as all logical wafer manufacturing, packaging, testing, mask making and others increased 6% year over year, slightly lower than our previous forecast. Supported by strong demand for our leading edge process technologies, TSMC's revenue increased 30% year over year in U. S. Dollar term outperformed the foundry industry growth. Entering 2025, we expect fabless semiconductor semiconductor inventory to have returned to a healthier level exceeding 2024.

Speaker 2

We forecast the Foundry 2.0 industry to grow 10% year over year in 2025, supported by robust AI related demand and a mild recovery in other end market segment. Supported by our technology leadership via broader customer base, we are confident we can continue to outperform the industry growth. We expect 2025 to be another strong growth year for TSMC and forecast our full year revenue to increase by close to mid-twenty percent in U. S. Dollar term.

Speaker 2

Now I will talk about AI demand and TSMC's long term growth outlook. We observe robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2024. Revenue from AI accelerators, which we now define as AI GPU, AI ASIC and HBM controller for AI training and influence in the data center accounted for close to mid teens percent of our total revenue in 2024. Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI Accelerator to double in 2025 as a strong surge in AI related demand continues. As a key enabler of AI applications, the value of our technology platform is increasing as customers rely on TSMC to provide the most advanced process and packaging technologies at scale in the most efficient and cost effective way.

Speaker 2

To address the structural increase in the long term market demand profile, TSMC is working closely with our customer to plan our capacity and investing in leading edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support their growth. As we have said before, TSMC employs a disciplined and a rough capacity planning system to evaluate and judge the market demand to determine the appropriate capacity to build. This is especially important when we have such high forecasted demand from AI related business. At the same time, we are committed to earning a sustainable and healthy return that enables us to continue to invest to support our customers' growth, while delivering profitable growth for our shareholders. Underpinned by our technology leadership and broad customer base, we now forecast the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-forty percent CAGR for the 5 year period, starting off the already higher base of 2024.

Speaker 2

We expect AI accelerators to be the strongest driver of our HPC platform growth and the largest contributor in terms of our overall incremental revenue growth in the next several years. Looking ahead, as the world's most reliable and effective capacity provider, TSMC is playing a critical and integral role in the global semiconductor industry. With our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, we are well positioned to address the growth from the industry megatrend of 5 gs, AI and HPC with our differentiated technologies. For the 5 year period starting from 2024, we expect our long term revenue growth to approach 20% CAGR in U. S.

Speaker 2

Dollar term, fueled by all 4 of our growth platform, which are smartphone, HPC, IoT and Automotive. Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update. All our overseas decision are based on our customers' need as they value some geographic flexibilities and the necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value for our shareholder. In the U.

Speaker 2

S, we have a long standing good relationship with the U. S. Government dating back to even before our Arizona fab project announcement in May 2020. We have received a strong commitment and support from the U. S.

Speaker 2

Customers and the U. S. Federal, state and city government and are making substantial progress. Building on the successful result of our earlier engineering wafer production, we were able to pull ahead the production schedule of our FOSS fab in Arizona. Our force fab has already entered the high volume production in 4Q 2024, utilizing N4 process technology with a yield comparable to our fabs in Taiwan.

Speaker 2

We expect a smooth ramp up process. And with our strong manufacturing capability and execution, we are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona as from our fab in Taiwan. Our plans for 2nd fab and 3rd fab in Arizona are also on track. This fab will utilize even more advanced technologies such as N3, N2 and A16 based on our customers' need. There's TSMC 1 continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers' success, while remaining a key partner in enabling of the U.

Speaker 2

S. Semiconductor industry. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan Central Prefecture and Local Government, our progress is also very good. Our first specialty technology fab in Kumamoto has started volume production at the end of 2024 with very good yield. Construction of our second fab, specialty fab, is scheduled to begin this year.

Speaker 2

In Europe, we have received strong commitment from the European Commission and German Federal State and City Government. We are progressing smoothly with our plans to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany, focusing on automotive and industrial application. In Taiwan, we continue to receive support from Taiwan government, and we are investing in and expanding our advanced technology and packaging capacities. Given the robust multiyear demand for our 3 nanometer technology, we continue to expand our 3 nanometer capacity in Tainan Science Park. We are also preparing for multiple phases of 2 nanometer fabs in both Xintu and Kaohsiung Science Park to support the strong structural demand from our customers.

Speaker 2

We are also expanding our advanced packaging facilities across several locations in Taiwan. As we have said before, under today's fragmented globalization environment, our CE fab costs are higher for everyone, including TSMC and or other semiconductor manufacturers. We are leveraging our fundamental competitive advantage of manufacturing technology leadership and large scale manufacturing base to be the most efficient and cost effective manufacturer in the region that we operate, while supporting our customers' growth. Finally, I will talk about the N2 and the A16 introduction. Our 2 nanometer and A16 technologies leads the industry in addressing the insensible need for energy efficient computing, and almost all the innovators are working with TSMC.

Speaker 2

We expect a number of the new tape out for 2 nanometer technology in the 1st 2 years to be higher than both 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer in their 1st 2 years, fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications. N2Watt delivered full node performance and power benefit with 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 20% to 30% power improvement at the same speed and more than 15% chip density increase as compared with N3E. N2 is well on track for volume production in second half of twenty twenty five as scheduled with a ramp profile similar to N3. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of N2 family. N2P features further performance and power benefit on top of N2.

Speaker 2

N2P was supportable, smartphone and HPC applications, and volume production is scheduled for second half twenty twenty six. We will also introduce 816 featuring Superpower Rail, or SBR, a separate offering. TSMC's SBR is an innovative best in class backside power delivery solution that is 1st in the industry to incorporate another backside metal scheme that preserves gate density and device with flexibility to maximize the product benefit. Compared with the N2P, A16 provide a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain. H16 is the best suitable for specific HPC product with a complex signal route and dense power delivery network.

Speaker 2

Volume production is scheduled for second half twenty twenty six. We believe N2, N2P, H16 and its derivative will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the growth opportunity well into the future. This concludes our key message. Thank you for your attention.

Operator

Thank you, C. C. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q and A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to 2 at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. First few questions here from the floor and then go to online.

Operator

I think maybe left, middle, right. So why don't we start? I think first question, Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Jeff. Happy New Year, management team. My first question is on the TSMC's U. S. Future strategy.

Speaker 3

There has been a lot of changes recently. That one relaxed, N minus 1 restriction. There was a news about that a week back. Cece, you met Elon Musk as well recently. So you said there are a lot of developments that you've discussed.

Speaker 3

Your key IDM competitor seems to be struggling as well, while your Arizona fab seems to be ramping up quite well. So in light of all these, I just wanted to understand the longer term strategy, would you start would you consider investing in latest node in the U. S. Because so far it has been N minus 1. Now you don't have the restriction from the Taiwan government to go and invest in the latest node.

Speaker 3

What has been your feedback in whatever discussions you have had with the incoming President Trump administration because they have talked a lot about CHIPS Act and everything, but they're also supportive. Your original investment was during President Trump's first term. And lastly, I think Wendell, I think last time you had mentioned you're not very keen on taking over any IDM fabs. Has that thinking changed, especially given PSMC has potential to become even more stronger partner for the U. S.

Speaker 3

In terms of bringing up U. S. Local manufacturing? Sorry, long question.

Operator

Yes. Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Indeed, a very long question. I think Gokul's question is looking at TSMC and our strategies in terms of global expansion, particularly in the U.

Operator

S. He notes that Taiwan has recently relaxed or said they relaxed the n minus one rule and CCS met several many of our large customers in the U. S. And our Arizona fab is ramping quite well. So his question really is on the longer term strategy.

Operator

I believe 3 parts. Number 1, what is the feedback or sort of discussions ongoing with the next administration in the U. S? Secondly, would we consider taking over IDM's fabs? Has that thinking changed?

Operator

And last on the new node, maybe we'll go 1 by 1.

Speaker 2

I almost forgot your question already. Okay. First one, the technology node. Actually, it's not we don't want to ramp up the same technology as in Taiwan. But if you look at the one we ramping up, introduce a new technology into manufacturing, the fab is the process so complicated.

Speaker 2

So it has to be very close to the R and D people. So the initial phase of the ramping up always come from the fab close to R and D. So in that sense, we want to ramp up the same kind of technology in U. S, but that practically is a little bit difficult. So Taiwan will always be forced.

Speaker 2

Does that answer your question? It's not because of N or N minus one limitation. No, it's practically we just have to ramp up a new node in Taiwan. And second, do we change our strategy to expand faster or something? Again, this is we always say that we build the capacity overseas is due to customers' need.

Speaker 2

If my customer has a very high demand, what should I do? I build more fab, right? With the necessary government support, by the way. Okay, talking about the government, let me assure you that we have a very frank and open communication with the current government and with the future one also. I cannot say anything more than that.

Speaker 2

Okay. What is the IDM fab. That's my customer. And now that we again, our strategy is not based on my IDM competitors' status. They are our very good customers.

Speaker 2

I like them and they are very important to TSMC's business also. That all I can say. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks, Sisi. Maybe my next question going to gross margins. So, Wendell, we are almost approaching 60% gross margin. Last cycle, we peaked at about 60% towards the peak of the cycle.

Speaker 3

You are expecting the cycle to even strengthen based on guidance that CEC provided for both AI as well as some improvement in non AI. So how should we think about gross margins in this cycle? Is it realistic that we can get to more than 60% gross margin in this upcycle? And related to that, could you help us understand the U. S.

Speaker 3

Especially the U. S. Fab overseas fabs, but especially U. S. Fab dilution, what are the key factors there?

Speaker 3

Because as you mentioned, yield is already approaching or almost close to Taiwan yield. So is it basically cycle time is longer? Or is it that some other costs are much higher in the U. S. Fab?

Speaker 3

Because new fab depreciation is probably fairly similar compared to the Taiwan fab.

Operator

Okay. So Gokul's second question is on gross margin. Again, 2 parts. He notes gross margin is almost approaching 60% in 2022. The last cycle, it was also around this type of level.

Operator

We have said that this year is another strong growth year for TSMC. So this question is how should we think about gross margins in this current cycle? Can we approach or get to 60% or low-60% s type of again? And then the second part is more specific to the U. S.

Operator

In terms of the cost gap. What are the U. S. Cost factors leading to the dilution impact?

Speaker 1

Gokul, first question on the gross margin. As we said, there are 6 factors affecting the profitability. Every year, different factors play different roles. But for example, if the utilization is extremely high, like last cycle, it is not impossible for us to reach what you just said. And secondly, the U.

Speaker 1

S. Fab cost. There it is more expensive in the U. S. Mainly because of several reasons.

Speaker 1

Number 1, the smaller scale number 2, the higher price in the supply chain and number 3, the very early stage of the ecosystem. So if you add all these up, as we said, 2% to 3% dilution from our overseas fabs every year in the next 5 years.

Speaker 3

If I use the 2% to 3% and do some math, it feels like the overseas fab is starting at, I don't know, 10% gross margin or 5% gross margin, just adding a factor. So obviously, it's not how it works, but I'm just doing outside in. Is that right? Is that the right kind of ballpark in terms of thinking about margin?

Speaker 1

All we can share is the 2% to 3%.

Speaker 3

I don't think TSMC has ever started a fab at 10% gross margin. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Gokul, we are working hard to improve it.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Gokul. We'll go to the middle, Laura Chen from Citigroup Citibank.

Speaker 4

Thank you and congratulations for the good result. I just want to have more details about your review. I mean, I think people are kind of looking for your updated long term CAGR growth. So I believe that 20% starting from a very already very high base in 2024 is a really good long term objective. But just wondering that aside from the strong AI demand, what's your view on the traditional applications like a PC and the smartphone growth, in particular for this year?

Operator

Okay. So Laura's first question is looking she notes that we have updated our long term CAGR to be approaching 20% revenue growth in U. S. Dollars starting off even the high base of 24. So her question is, of course, AI demand is part of that, but what about smartphone and PC?

Operator

And I think your question is specific to this year, C. C, 2025?

Speaker 2

This year is still a mild growth for PC and smartphone, but everything is AI related,

Operator

all right.

Speaker 2

So you can start to see why we have confidence to give you a close to 20% CAGR in the next 5 years. AI, you look at smartphone, they will put the AI functionality inside. And not only that, so the silicon content will be increased. In addition to that, actually the replacement cycle will be shortened. And also they need to go into the very advanced technology because if you want to put a lot of functionality inside a small chip, you need much more advanced technology to put those consumer.

Speaker 2

Put all together that even smartphone, the unit growth is almost low single digit. But then the silicon and the replacement cycle and the technology migration that give us more growth than just the unit growth. Similar reason for PC.

Speaker 4

So we can kind of expect those AI capable edge devices, they were all based on 2 nanometer next year, perhaps second half?

Speaker 2

ETIM Edge Technology. That's what I said.

Speaker 4

Okay. And also my next question is about AI. I noted that at this times, you include that the HBM controller into your AI business revenues definition. So can you provide us more update about what HBI based dye business opportunities could be? And previously, TSMC kind of announced cooperation with the key memories suppliers globally.

Speaker 4

Can you give us more details or updates on what the progress of this business engagement?

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Laura. So Laura's second question is on HPM controllers. She notes that our definition of AI accelerators includes memory controllers or HPM controllers. So her question is, well, how do we see this opportunity or what is the opportunity for TSMC?

Operator

And what is the progress of this working with our memory partners?

Speaker 2

We are working with all the memory suppliers, all of them. And that is because of TSMC's logic chip or logic technology more advanced. And that means our customers' requirement. So all of them are working with TSMC. Now we start to see some of the product coming out.

Speaker 2

But the high volume probably you need to wait for another half or one year to see the high volume and big contribution to TSMC's revenue.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. We'll move to this side of the room. I guess we have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 5

C. C, Wendell and Jeff, first of all, Happy New Year. I think it's going to be a very exciting year given your bullish outlook and also lots of news going on, right? So let me start with the overnight, the U. S.

Speaker 5

Seems to put a new framework on researching China's AI business, right? So I'm wondering whether that will create some business impact to your China business and how are we going to manage it? And also for some chips in the middle, high performers like crypto mining, autonomous driving chip, do you think that's counted as cloud AI? And would TSMC be able to continue to service your channel customers?

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Charlie. So Charlie's first question, if I may, sort of extrapolate or summarize this about the announcements of different types of U. S. Export restrictions this week pertaining to China and AI related chips.

Operator

So his question is what is the impact to TSMC? How does it impact our business?

Speaker 2

So far, we look at we don't have all analysis yet. But the 1st look is not significant, it's manageable. So that meaning that my customers who are being restricted or something, we are applying for the special permit for them and we believe that we have confidence that they will get some permission so long as they are not in the AI area, especially automotive industry or even you talk about crypto mining, yes.

Speaker 5

Thank you. That is super helpful. And my second question is actually a very hot topic recently as well, the CPO. I think your main partner, Jensheng, come to Taiwan this time probably besides meeting you, right, probably also want to enable this supply chain. So based on your recent technology symposium, right, you already get ready for your Coupe or Coupe optical engine.

Speaker 5

But do you think the talent supply chain can really facilitate this CPO? Because without these key components, the next generation Rubin schedule could have some issues. So I think this is part of the first part of the question about how you're going to facilitate this CPO supply chain. And secondly, to TSMC, your foundry service, right? Do you see significant upside with the OPTI node network migrate to CPO?

Speaker 5

Because I ask is it because some conventional product like optical transceiver, DSP, could be replaced?

Operator

Well, Charlie's second question is a very specific topic. He wants to know, well, if I can generalize because we certainly don't comment on customers or their products. But in terms of our progress on silicon photonics and CPO, how are we working with customers? How are we preparing as part of our advanced packaging solutions? And what are the opportunities for TSMC as optical moves to silicon photonics and other type of solutions on a general basis?

Speaker 2

Charlie, that's a very technical question. Silicon photonics, we are working on it as you said, and we got a good result also. However, a big volume I don't see kilowatt be in this year or probably we have to wait for 1 or 1.5 year to you can see that contribution of the volume production. The initial results are quite good, no doubt about it. And so my customer are quite happy.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Sisi. Operator, we'll now move to the questions online. We'll take the first call from the online participant, please.

Speaker 6

Yes. First question, Brett Simpson, Arete Research. Yes, thanks very much. And can I just say congratulations on reaching $100,000,000,000 in annual sales in Q4? It's quite a milestone.

Speaker 6

So my first question is on Arizona. I think Wendell, you mentioned that we need to see some higher scale. So can you update us on the status of Phase 2? It looks like the construction of the shell is nearly complete, but would be great to understand more about how you see P2 developing over the course of 2025. And in terms of pricing U.

Speaker 6

S. Wafers, how are you planning to do this? Will you have a U. S. Price and a Taiwan price?

Speaker 6

Or are you more likely to have a global price regardless of where you make the wafers? Thank you.

Operator

Okay. So Brett's question, first question is on Arizona, maybe split into 2 parts. First is on terms of we have already started the volume production of the first fab. So Brett would like an update on the progress of the second fab in terms of the construction of the buildings and the shelves, etcetera? And then the second part would be on the pricing of overseas.

Operator

As we say, there's value to our customers. He wants to know, do we charge a separate price or is it part of the overall pricing, etcetera, etcetera?

Speaker 2

Maybe answer the second question first. Do we charge a little bit higher? Yes, we did because of we have a value of geographics of flexibility, right? And you guys know some many U. S.

Speaker 2

A. Is premium product. Yes, we discussed with our customer and they are all agree and happy to work with TSMC so that we can because of the cost structure over there, so it's a little bit higher price over there. The progress of the first fab is right now in volume production. 2nd fab, we almost finished all the building and start to put the facility, etcetera, etcetera.

Speaker 2

And we expect that we move the tours this year also. And we have a plan that our third fab probably will start very soon and we will announce it in the later days. Okay?

Operator

Okay. Thank you, C. C. Brett, does that answer your first question? And do you have a second one?

Speaker 6

Yes, very clear. And the second question, I wanted to get your perspective. Broadcom's CEO recently laid out a large SAM for AI hyperscalers building out custom silicon. I think he was talking about 1,000,000 accelerated clusters from each of the customers he has in the next 2 or 3 years. What's TSMC's perspective on all this?

Speaker 6

I'm sure you've spent a lot of time verifying what hyperscalers are planning over the years to come. And how comfortable are you with the scale of what's being implied here? Thanks.

Operator

Okay. So Brett's second question is looking at AI. I guess, specifically AI custom chips or ASICs. He notes that one of our customers recently laid out a very strong or large addressable SAM market for AI hyperscalers using custom silicon. Lots of them talking about clusters of 1,000,000 chips.

Operator

So he wants to know what is TSMC's view? How do we see this trend in terms of AI ASICs as part of the AI demand megatrend? Brett,

Speaker 2

I'm not going to answer the question of the specific number. But let me assure you that whether it's ASIC or it's a graphic, they all need a very leading edge technology and they're all working with TSMC. Okay. So and the second one is, is the demand real? Was it's a number that my customer said.

Speaker 2

I would say that the demand is very strong. Is that enough to answer your question? Brett?

Speaker 6

Yes, that's great. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Brett. Operator, do we have anyone else on the line? It seems not. Then let's okay, we don't.

Operator

Then let's go back to the floor. I think on the left side, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. To be honest, I will be surprised that long term gross margin target doesn't really change it. I believe TSMC's value is definitely more than selling the pass on the cost. I believe that TSMC need to invest a lot more in R and D to maintain the leadership.

Speaker 7

TSMC suggested a raise the gross margin target in 2022 with higher R and D requirement, with higher profitable target, right? So I asked the same question 2 quarters ago, which is in the process of pricing negotiation, which is understandable. But I think the price negotiation is pretty much done. Down. What's the discrepancy here?

Speaker 7

Why TSMC cannot raise the profitability target?

Operator

Okay. So Bruce's first question, he wants to know again our long term gross margin, why are we not changing the target of 53% and higher, okay? He correctly notes that certainly TSMC's value is increasing and certainly TSMC we need to invest a lot of money in R and D and capacity to support our customers' growth. So we have always had a focus on earning the right return. He also notes in 2022, while our gross margin used to be about 50, then we raised it to 53 and higher.

Operator

So his question is why is it not and higher I guess? Hi,

Speaker 1

Bruce. As we said, 6 factors affecting the profitability. Every year, different factors have different weight. Now two things to note. Number 1, starting from this year overseas fab expansion 2 to 3 percentage point impact every year for the next 5 years.

Speaker 1

The other things to note, macro environment, uncertainty, which may lead to impacting the global economy, which may lead to end market demand. Now having said that, we are in the capital intensive industry. So we will need to have to earn a healthy return to continue to invest to support our customer, support their growth and also deliver a profitable growth to our shareholders. And you mentioned about the raising of long term gross margins back in 2022 to 53% and higher and we have been able to deliver that in higher parts since then. So given all the above, we continue to think that 53% and higher gross margin is achievable and we work very hard to achieve on the higher part.

Speaker 7

Okay. I'll try next two quarters. For the co works capacity, TSMC has been very aggressive in expanding the capacity. However, the application is highly concentrated in AI at the current stage, which there are certain noise around it. When can we see non AI application such as servers, smartphone or anything else can be can start to adapt COOS capacity in case there is any fluctuation in the AI demand.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Bruce. So Bruce's second question is on COOS capacity. In his words, we have been very aggressive to expand the capacity. But his concern is highly concentrated with AI related demand.

Operator

So his question is when do we expect or to see more non AI application adoption of COVAX solutions?

Speaker 2

Well, yes, today is all AI focused and we have very tight capacity and cannot even meet customers' need. But with the other product adopted this kind of a COOS approach, they will. It's coming. And we know that it's coming. So that's all I can say.

Speaker 7

When?

Speaker 2

It's coming.

Speaker 7

Okay. I will try next quarter.

Speaker 2

On the CPU and on the server chip, let me give you a hint. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Bruce. We'll go to the middle, Arthur Lai from Macquarie.

Speaker 8

Hi, C. G. And Wendell and Jeff, Arceline from Macquarie. So first of all, congrats on the strong gross margin. Just have a very quick follow-up on the U.

Speaker 8

S. And JP expansion as this is important. My client keep chasing me. So do you have operational strategy to mitigate the cost gap between the overseas Fed and Taiwan Fed? Yes, I think, C.

Speaker 8

C, you hinted that you will walk on it and improve the gross margin. But during the Chinese New Year, I read Morris Chang's his autobiography and he mentioned that the strategy is copied exactly from the Taiwan motherfaire, right? So I want to understand how we maintain the high yield and also drag the cost down? Thank you.

Operator

Okay. So Arthur's question is about our overseas expansion. His question is related to the cost gap and what is our operational strategies to mitigate the cost gap? How are we doing this internally in our fab operations and strategies to do so?

Speaker 2

Well, mentioning my boss is a book, okay. That's meaning that you really read it. What he says copy exactly is whatever Taiwan's improvement, the U. S. Will copy over there.

Speaker 2

Doesn't mean that this year, next year and the following year will be the same. We continue to improve. That's improved the cost structure both in Taiwan and in the U. S. And we also try very hard to find out a new methodology or whatever that I cannot share with you right now.

Speaker 2

But it will give Arizona fab some benefit. And so that will improve. We'll minimize the gap between the cost structure between U. S. And Taiwan.

Speaker 2

And we are working on that. But no matter what I say, what would be the best fab over there?

Speaker 8

Okay. 2nd follow-up question, probably is on window. You just mentioned that there's 200 bps or 300 bps margin dilution, right? So can you give us a one level down like the variable cost and the fixed cost, maybe half or maybe which one is higher?

Operator

Okay. So Arthur's second question is on the overseas dilution of 2% to 3%. He is asking if we can provide a further breakdown in terms of how much of that is composed from variable cost, how much of that is from the fixed cost, etcetera?

Speaker 1

Arthur, we really don't give breakdown on these numbers, but both of them are higher. That's all I can share with you.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. We'll move to the right side of the room. I think Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.

Speaker 9

Yes. Hi. Happy New Year and thank you for taking my questions. So first one, Xu Xia, can you share with us your view on this year's global semiconductor revenue forecast as memory or any the driver by applications in priority across the main application? Thank you.

Operator

Okay. So Rick's first question, he's asking for our forecast of the semiconductor industry, what we used to provide as semi ex MEM, but of course we have already given foundry 2.0. Then he would like the outlook by end market application in terms of ranking. Maybe just a comment on the overall end markets as a whole.

Speaker 2

Rick, I think the memory business will grow this year also. But all I can say is that HBM will grow very fast. And I don't comment on other memories because of it's not logic.

Operator

And we have already provided Foundry 2.0 to grow 10% year over year. That's our industry forecast for 2025.

Speaker 9

Just a quick follow-up. Can I use your Foundry 2.0 market growth as a proxy of the global semi x memory?

Operator

So his question is can we use Foundry 2.0 as a proxy for for Semiconductor

Speaker 7

X memory? Yes.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 9

And the second one is very quick. About your COWAS and SOIC capacity ramp, can you give us more color this year? Because recently, there seemed to be a lot of market noises, some add orders, some cut orders. So I would like to see your view on the cobalt ramp.

Operator

Okay. So Rick's second question is lots of market rumors here. So he would like to know any comment we can provide on cobas ramp in 2025?

Speaker 2

Rick, as you said, there's a lot of rumor. That's a rumor, I assure you. We are working very hard to meet the requirement of my customers' demand. So cut the order, that won't happen. It actually continue to increase.

Speaker 2

So we are again, I will say that we are working very hard to increase the capacity.

Operator

Yes. Okay. Thank you. Okay. Let's move back to operator, is there anyone online?

Speaker 6

Yes. We have next one, Robert Sanders, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please.

Speaker 10

Yes. Hi there. I just have a question on AI demand. Is there a scenario where HBM is more of a constraint on the demand rather than cohorts, which seems to be the bigger constraint at the moment?

Speaker 6

And I

Speaker 10

had a follow-up. Thanks.

Operator

Okay. So Rob is asking us to comment on AI demand and HBM status constraint or what is the bigger constraint in AI demand?

Speaker 2

I don't comment on other supplier, but I know that we have a very tight capacity to support the AI demand. I don't want to say I'm the bottleneck. TSMC always working very hard with customer to meet their requirement. That's all I can say.

Operator

You have a second question?

Speaker 10

Yes. Just on SOIC, there's been more discussion in the market around your smartphone customers adopting SOIC. Can you just discuss if there's any kind of inflection points here, whether it's in the PC domain or the smartphone domain? Or is this still more of a data center story? Thanks.

Operator

Okay. Well, Rob, second question is on SOIC adoption. His question basically in a nutshell is when do we see an inflection point for smartphone application to adopt SOIC?

Speaker 2

Today SOIC is a demand still can focus on AI applications. For PC or for other area is coming, but not right now.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Rob. Thank you, C. C. I think in the interest of the time, we'll take the last two questions, please.

Operator

Okay, I guess we will go to Sunny Lin from UBS.

Speaker 11

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. And so my first question is to try to get a bit more clarity on the cloud growth for 2020 5. I think longer term without a doubt the technology definitely has lots of potential for demand. But I think if we look at 20252026, I think there could be increasing uncertainties coming from maybe CSP spending, macro or even some of the supply chain challenges.

Speaker 11

And so I understand the management just provided a pretty good guidance for this year for the sales to double. And so if you look at that number, do you think there is still more upside than downside as we go through 2025? Or how should we think about the demand profile for this year and next year?

Operator

Okay. Well Sunny's question is about the AI related demand. We have said that even after tripling more than tripling last year, it will double again in 2025. She wants to know is there upside or downside to this? And also for us to provide an outlook on the 2026 AI growth?

Speaker 2

Sunny, I certainly hope there is an upside, but I hope I get my team can supply enough capacity to support it. Did that give you enough hint? Okay. And we also forecast based on the 2024s high number, we also forecast of mid-40s is CAGR for the 5 years. That give you some kind of estimate that you can calculate?

Speaker 11

Yes. So, maybe 40% is the long term expectation in terms of growth by next few years. But how should we think about the trajectory of the growth? For sure this year is still pretty strong growth, but do you think at some point maybe we see a moderation of growth temporarily and then followed by another ramp?

Operator

Well, I think Sunny's question again is asking us to comment on 2026 outlook, which is a little bit early or that how do we see the trajectory of the growth?

Speaker 2

Yes, we already say it's a little bit too early.

Speaker 11

Sure. No problem. So I'll follow-up maybe next quarter as well. And so my second question is on HGI. And so last year management did expire maybe 2025 to be the inflection point forward to see more content related to HGI.

Speaker 11

So based on your current visibility, are you seeing clients ramping for this year for the AGI products maybe into second half? And before you also mentioned AGI could potentially drive 5% to 10% die size increase. Would that be a one time increase? Or do you think beyond the 5% to 10% increase for the maybe 1st gen product, there should be sustainable increase going forward?

Operator

Okay. So Sunny's second question is related to Edge AI. She would like some more detail or color. Do we see customers ramping Edge or what we call on device AI products in second customers ramping Edge or what we call on device AI products in second half of this year? And the second part in terms of the content increase, 5% to 10% increase, is this a one time thing?

Operator

Is this an ongoing thing? How do we estimate the content benefit from on device AI?

Speaker 2

Okay. On the Edge AI, in our observation, we find out that our customers start to put more neural processor inside. And so we estimate it's a 5% to 10% more silicon being used. Can you every year 5% to 10%? The definition is no, right?

Speaker 2

So they will move to next node, the technology migration. That's also to TSMC's advantage. Not only that, I also say that the replacement cycle, I think it will be shortened because of when you have a new toy that with AI functionality inside, everybody will replace it, replace their smartphone, replace their PCs. And I count that 1 much more than a mere 5% increase.

Speaker 6

All

Speaker 2

right. Did I answer your question?

Speaker 11

Yes. Thank you very much.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Operator, I think there's one more participant online. So we'll take the last question from online participant, please.

Speaker 6

I think the last caller just dropped the line. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. Then we'll take the last question from Brad Lin from Bank of America.

Speaker 12

Thank you for squeezing me in. So happy New Year and taking my questions. So I would like to answer 2 questions. First question would be on the COBOS as well. So we have observed increasing margin of advanced packaging.

Speaker 12

Could you remind us the COBOS contribution of last year? And do you expect the margin to kind of approach the corporate average or even exceed it after the so called value reflection this year? That would be my first question. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. So Brad's first question is very specific to COOS. Basically, he wants to know what is the revenue contribution from COOS last year and what is the margin profile? Maybe we can talk about advanced packaging.

Speaker 1

Brad, we don't break it down in different segments of the advanced packaging. But overall speaking, advanced packaging accounted for over 8% of revenue last year and it will account for over 10% this year. In terms of gross margins, it is better. It is better than before, but still below the corporate average.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 12

Thank you, Wendell. That's very helpful. And then my second question would be on the IDMs. So we have seen IDMs increasingly rely on TSMC. And then do we still expect the IDM to support our long term growth?

Operator

Okay. So Brad's second question I think is on IDM and IDM Outsourcing. He does note that we do see more IDM Outsourcing business. So is this part of our long term growth outlook CAGR?

Speaker 2

Again, let me repeat again. They are our very good customers and we work together. I don't say that we rely on TSMC. We are partners. And I really hope that a long term relationship will be there for sure.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, C. C. Thank you, Brad. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

This concludes our Q and A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now and certainly both will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. So thank you everyone for joining us today online and in person. We'd like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and hope everyone continues to stay well and hope you'll join us again next quarter.

Operator

Goodbye and thank you. Have a good day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q4 2024
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