Comerica Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Comerica 4th-Quarter and Fiscal-Year 2024 Financial Review Conference Call. At this time, all participants will be in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press Star-1 from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 to remove yourself from the queue. Participants that are using speaker equipment may be necessary to pick-up your handset before pressing the star keys. If anyone today should also require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Kelly. You may now begin.

Kelly Gage
Director of Investor Relations at Comerica

Thanks, Rob. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's 4th-quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman and CEO, Curt Farmer; Chief Financial Officer, Jim Herzog; Chief Credit Officer, Melinda Chawsi; and Chief Banking Officer, Peter. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides, which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, kamerica.com.

The presentation in this conference call contain forward-looking statements. And in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe-harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2. Also, the presentation in this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures. And in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliations of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website.

Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. We felt 2024 was a year of strength as we prioritized further enhancing our foundation to better position ourselves for long-term success and saw promising customer trends. We continue to favor a conservative approach to capital management, producing an 80 basis-points increase in our estimated CET1 capital ratio while resuming share repurchases. Even with ongoing volatility in the rate curve, we grow both book and tangible book-value. Although loan demand remained muted throughout much of the year, we saw encouraging trends in the 4th-quarter with improved sentiment and higher production levels, which supports our expectation for growth in 2025.

Credit quality remained a strength as we maintained our disciplined underwriting and produced historically low net charge-offs. Through deliberate reduction in wholesale funding and with favorable customer trends, we optimized liquidity benefiting net interest income. Beyond our financial results, we advanced strategic priorities such as investing in relationship managers in growth businesses and financial advisors in support of our wealth management focus. Investments in capital markets produce results as the team closed their first M&A advisory transaction and built a strong pipeline for expanded revenue in the coming years.

We continue to modernize our real-estate footprint and technology. In fact, we expect to have almost all of our applications managing the cloud or on a SaaS platform by year-end 2025. Supporting our communities remain a priority as we provided critical business resources to small businesses and help nonprofits broaden their reach. In preparing for the future, we continue to make progress towards eventual category IV readiness. And lastly, with an ongoing commitment towards driving efficiency, we executed expense recalibration initiatives, creating capacity for strategic and risk management investments. We believe our progress towards these important initiatives will help us achieve our long-term strategic objectives.

Moving to a summary of 2024 on Slide 4, we reported earnings of $698 million or $5.02 per share. Although the 2023 industry disruption weighed on year-over-year average comparisons, we saw encouraging trends throughout the year across a number of categories. Persistently higher rates muted loan demand across the industry. But late in the year, we saw improved customer sentiment, anticipating a more favorable business and regulatory environment. Although the subsequent risk of higher rates dampened that optimism somewhat, we still hear customers are bullish about increasing business investment throughout 2025.

Average deposits were pressured by 2023 events, but also reflected an intentional reduction in brokered time deposits. Other than brokered deposits, we saw growth in customer balances from year-end 2023 to 2024. Both non-interest income and expenses were impacted by notable items and our private credit management approach produced very strong results. Slide 5 summarizes the 4th-quarter, where we generated earnings of $170 million or $1.22 per share. Loans, deposits and net interest income performed consistent with commentary we provided at our 4th-quarter industry conference.

Leveraging our strong relationship model, we believe we successfully managed deposit pricing commensurate with rate cuts. A modest securities repositioning, pressured non-interest income and a number of other specific items impacted non-interest expenses for the quarter. In all, we feel the momentum with customer deposits and net interest income, coupled with improving sentiment positions us for growth in 2025.

Now, I'll turn the call over to Jim to review our financial results.

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to loans on Slide 6. Average loans declined less than 1/2 of 1%, attributed largely to expected paydowns in commercial real-estate from a higher pace of refinancing or sale of projects. As a reminder, our commercial real-estate line-of-business strategy is geared towards originating construction loans and we do not generally expect to be a permanent lender in that space. Declines in corporate banking were partially attributed to senior housing exits and energy grew by winning new and expanding existing relationships.

Throughout the quarter, we saw increases across a number of businesses, but period-end loans were flat as that growth was offset by a $500 million reduction in commercial real-estate. Total commitments were relatively flat as declines in commercial real-estate and corporate banking were offset by production in middle-market general, energy and environmental services. Average loan yields increased 1 basis-point as the impact of business cessation and higher non-accrual interests offset the impact of a lower rate environment.

On Slide 7, we continue to be encouraged by customer deposit activity. Average deposits decreased $550 million or 0.9%. Excluding the impact of the $1.4 billion decline in brokered CDs, customer deposits grew over $800 million or over 1% in the quarter with the largest contribution coming from middle-market general. Growth continues to be centered in interest-bearing deposits and although cyclical pressures persisted, noninterest-bearing deposits as a percentage of total remained flat at 38%, continuing to reflect a compelling mix. Period-end deposits increased $700 million.

Adjusting for the timing-related increase in DirectExpress deposits and the decline in brokered CDs, period-end customer deposits grew $400 million on a net basis. Lower brokered CDs, coupled with a successful pricing strategy drove a 40 basis-points decline in deposit pricing quarter-over-quarter. Going-forward, we intend to continue our relationship pricing approach, monitoring the rate and competitive environment while balancing customers' objectives with their own funding needs and profitability.

Our securities portfolio on Slide 8 declined as the shift in the rate curve reduced the valuation and we saw continued paydowns and maturities. Late in the 4th-quarter, we executed a modest repositioning, selling approximately $800 million of our lower rate treasuries and reinvesting at a market yield. We expect to accrete the $19 million pre-tax loss in the net interest income within 2025. Beyond a modest level of purchases to replace treasury maturities, we do not currently project a more meaningful securities reinvestment cadence until late this year.

Turning to Slide 9. Net interest income increased $41 million to $575 million. Excluding the benefit of Cessation, net interest income would have grown $16 million quarter-over-quarter. The benefit of maturing swaps in securities, higher customer deposits, strong deposit betas and non-accrual interests all contributed to a strong net interest income quarter.

Moving to Slide 11, we continue to believe the successful execution of our interest-rate strategy allows us to better protect our profitability from rate volatility. Despite the slight benefit this slide shows in a lower rate environment, we generally consider ourselves to be asset neutral, though we remain cognizant of the impact the rate environment may have on non-interest-bearing deposits. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over-time.

We feel credit quality remains a competitive strength as shown on Slide 12. Net charge-offs remain low at 13 basis-points and only reflect a slight increase from the prior quarter with lower 4th-quarter recoveries. Persistent inflation and elevated rates continued to pressure customer profitability and drove expected normalization in both criticized and nonperforming loans, largely in our general middle-market businesses. Overall, the modest migration observed was expected and already factored into our reserves. And as a result, our allowance for credit losses remained relatively flat at 1.44% of total loans. We feel our proven conservative credit discipline continues to position us well to outperform our peers through-the-cycle.

On Slide 13, 4th-quarter non-interest income decreased $27 million, including the $19 million realized loss from the securities repositioning and a $4 million decline in deferred compensation, which was largely offset within non-interest expenses. Despite modest pressures observed in the quarter across select categories, we continue to prioritize non-interest income and expect to see customer-related income growth in 2025.

Expenses on Slide 14 increased $25 million over the prior quarter, inclusive of seasonally higher costs, which impacted a number of line items, including salaries and benefits. In addition, we saw an increase in legal and litigation-related expenses, and we made the strategic decision to increase funding to increase the size of our charitable foundation. These increases more than offset lower operational losses and the gains of real-estate, which we -- which as we continue to optimize our real-estate and banking center footprint. Expense discipline remains a key priority as we continue to focus on driving efficiency.

As shown on Slide 15, we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital with our estimated CET1 at 11.89%. This remained well-above our 10% strategic target and even if the proposed Basel III removal of the AOCI opt-out is in effect, we would have exceeded regulatory minimums and buffers. Movement in the forward curve caused unrealized losses in AOCI to shift higher in the quarter, but we expect them to improve over-time with maturities and paydowns.

Even with volatility in the rate curve, we returned capital to shareholders through $100 million in share repurchases in the 4th-quarter and intend to repurchase approximately $50 million of common stock in the first-quarter. As we consider future capital decisions, we intend to be measured in our approach and calibrate the size and frequency of future repurchases with expected loan trends. We will also continue to closely watch the forward curve, our profitability, the economy and any regulatory updates as they may also influence our strategy.

Our outlook for 2025 is on Slide 16. We project full-year average loans to be flat-to-up 1% in 2025 with expected growth in most businesses, largely offset by anticipated paydowns in commercial real-estate. In fact, excluding the impact from commercial real-estate, we project 2% average loan growth year-over-year. And in the first-quarter, commercial real-estate paydowns are expected to fully offset production in most other businesses, resulting in a relatively flat average loans compared to 4th-quarter '24.

As we move throughout the year, we project sequential quarterly loan growth, resulting in an estimated 3% point-to-point increase in total loans by year-end 2025 compared to year-end 2024. We intend to continue our deliberate reduction in brokered time deposits, which is expected to drive a 2% to 3% decline in-full year average deposits in 2025. Excluding brokered CDs, we expect full-year average customer deposits to grow 1%. Following seasonal declines in the first-quarter, we project customer deposit growth throughout the rest of 2025. With the elevated rate environment, we expect most of that growth will continue to be concentrated in interest-bearing balances, but believe our non-interest-bearing deposit mix will remain relatively consistent in the upper 30s.

Also, as a point of clarity, we are not assuming deposit attrition in 2025 for Direct Express within this outlook based on our current understanding of the transition strategy. We expect full-year 2025 net interest income to increase 6% to 7% compared to 2024 with the benefit of business cessation, maturing and replaced securities and swaps, a more efficient funding mix and higher loans, more than offsetting lower noninterest-bearing balances.

In the first-quarter, we expect net interest income to take a slight step-down with a 1% to 2% decline from the 4th-quarter as the impact of day count, lower noninterest-bearing deposits and lower non-accrual interest income offsets the benefit of Cessation and our swap in securities portfolios. From there, we expect to see growth through the rest of the year and even without the benefit of Cessation, we expect net interest income to be significantly stronger in 2025 than 2024.

With the potential for ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated rates, we expect manageable migration towards more normal credit levels to continue in our portfolio. As a result, we project full-year net charge-offs to be at the lower-end of our normal 20 to 40 basis-points range in 2025. We expect 2025 non-interest income to increase 4% over reported 2024 levels, which includes a 2% expected growth in customer income. For the first-quarter of 2025, we expect seasonal declines in customer-related non-interest income and then generally expect to see growth in customer fees through the balance of the year.

Full-year non-interest expenses are expected to grow 3% with higher salaries and benefits, lower gains on-sale of real-estate and an increase in pension expense. First-quarter 2025 expenses are projected to increase 2% over the 4th-quarter of 2024 with normal seasonality and compensation expenses. Expense discipline remains a priority as we seek to self-fund strategic and risk management investments to support our future long-term inefficiency.

Moving to capital, we continue to appreciate the importance of a strong capital position and intend to consider a number of variables, including loan growth, the forward curve and the broader economic environment as we execute our plan for the year. We intend to maintain a CET1 ratio well-above our 10% strategic target in 2025. In all, we expect favorable sentiment and trends to drive responsible customer-related growth throughout 2025.

Now, I'll turn the call-back to Curt.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Thank you, Jim. As one of the few banks who have celebrated 175 years in business, we understand the importance of strong capital, credit and liquidity in delivering long-term success. And as discussed, we feel those foundational strengths really shine through in 2024. On-top of that, we saw positive customer deposit trends, successfully managed deposit pricing and return capital to shareholders through resumption of share repurchases.

As we look-forward, we feel our model is compelling. We have a unique geographic strategy that is diversified and focuses on growing markets. Our talent is differentiated and tendered colleagues who have deep expertise to deliver consistency to our customers. We continue to invest in our development program, which creates a consistent pipeline of colleagues with the right mix of sales and credit skills. Our product suite is strong, tailored to meet the needs of our customers, and we are making strategic investments, which will enhance our solution set.

Importantly, we feel well-positioned to deliver responsible loan growth, supported by higher deposits, complemented by increased customer-related fee income. No doubt there's always some level of economic uncertainty, but we are managing our business for the long-term by making important investments that support existing customers and win new relationships.

Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to take just a moment and acknowledge individuals and businesses who have navigated the unprecedented flooding in the Southeast late last year and the recent wildfires in California. Our thoughts are with our Comerica colleagues and customers impacted by these tragic events.

And with that, we are happy to take your questions.

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Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick-up the handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please when we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, Jon.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Hey, good morning. Can you touch a little bit on your loan growth outlook? You talked a little bit about the pipelines maybe being a little bit better, but I think you're showing commitments stable as well, but you said better sentiment. Can you talk a little bit about what you've seen over the last few months?

Peter L. Sefzik
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer at Comerica

Yeah. Jon, it's Peter. So over the last few months, I think the tone has changed. 90 days ago, we were hearing a lot more about interest-rate relief needed per se to stimulate loan growth. And I think that is, I want to say totally gone away, but it certainly seems to have subsided with more customer optimism going into the new year. And so I think that overall customer sentiment is encouraging. We're starting our -- the year off with a better pipeline than we did a year-ago.

So I think all that together is pretty encouraging and it's pretty broad-based. I mean, the only business where we really just don't feel like there's a whole lot of activity going on is CRE as we discussed. So we expect that to be a headwind going into 2025. But across the rest of the book, I think customer sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 90 days and seems less tied to interest-rate outlook than maybe it did when we finished the 3rd-quarter.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Okay. And just a follow-up, Peter, just the CRE payoff outlook, what is anything -- when do you expect that to change? I mean, when do you expect some of those headwinds to eventually fade-out?

Peter L. Sefzik
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer at Comerica

Jon, that's a good question. I probably should add a disclaimer to what I just said. I think interest rates are probably affecting that business more than any. And so I suspect that we will see payoffs through 2025, possibly into 2026 with sort of the current interest-rate outlook that the -- that the country has at the moment.

Could that change? Could we see less payoffs if rates sort of stay where they are, possibly, could it speed-up if rates were to drop, maybe so? I think rates going up would certainly impact that business, both in just opportunities out there and balances probably staying on longer. So a little bit of moving parts. I think our baseline is just expecting sort of quarterly payoffs through the rest of this year and probably into the first or second-quarter of '26.

Jon Arfstrom
Analyst at RBC Capital

Yeah. Okay. All right. I'll step-back. Thank you guys very much.

Peter L. Sefzik
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer at Comerica

Thanks, Jon.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Thanks, Jon.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, Manan.

Manan Gosalia
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning. On broker deposits, I know those are coming down nicely and you expect to pay-down some more as you go through the first-half of the year. Can you talk about how much room there is to pay-down some of these higher-cost sources of funding as we go through the year if loan growth remains weak?

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

Yeah. Good morning, Manan. Yeah, we did end the year with just over about $1.1 billion of brokered deposits. And we do see those coming down pretty continuously throughout 2025, probably more so starting in the second and third quarters, but all the way through early 4th-quarter. It's very feasible that we have no brokered deposits, no brokered time deposits by the end of 2025. So those are a little bit pricey. We're paying about 5.4% for those. And it is our goal with strong core customer deposit growth to eliminate most or all of those by the end of 2025. Now that will of course, depend on loan growth trends and other factors. But overall, we continue to improve the efficiency of our funding mix and quite optimistic about that.

Manan Gosalia
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

And in terms of capital, I know you're managing that reported CET1 to about 10%, but is there a number you're managing to for CET1 including AOCI?

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

There is no one number because there are a number of capital ratios that different constituencies value. So we are considering kind of a smortgage forward of capital ratios, but of course, CET1 is likely the most important there. With higher levels of AOCI like we had this quarter, we are being a little bit more cautious on capital. But I think it's fair to say, regardless of where things go this year, we plan on staying well-above 11% CET1. And then as AOCI continues to come down later this year and into '26, that gives us more options from a capital standpoint. But overall, considering a number of ratios, and I think it's fair to say we'll be well-above 11% for this year.

Manan Gosalia
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

So is it fair to say that if the loan end-of-the curve goes up more and that CET1 including AOCI comes down, you would just manage your capital levels by flexing buybacks and you still have enough balance sheet available for customers if loan growth to pick-up?

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Absolutely. We have a lot of options with capital. Certainly, loan growth is not an issue. Loan growth, as Peter was saying, is going to be a little bit of a wildcard depending on where commercial real-estate goes. So first and foremost, we will pay attention to where loan growth trends go and determine what we do with capital. But again, AOCI is probably the number two-factor right behind where loan growth goes.

Manan Gosalia
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, John.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Morning. So just looking at the expense side, you're running at in the high-60s efficiency ratio currently. As you look at 2025, given your guide, it looks like you may still be in that general range. I mean, what do you view as the appropriate long-term efficiency ratio for Comerica and what can drive you back-down off of that upper 60s level? Is it primarily going to be a revenue catalyst or is there an expense opportunity there?

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

Good morning, John. Yeah, we have seen some elevated efficiency ratios and we really saw this take place following the regional bank crisis with some of the shifts in deposit mix. So we are working to return back to what we think is an acceptable efficiency ratio, which we believe ultimately needs to be in the 50s to hit some of the ROE objectives that we have in the future. So we are working towards that. It's always a combination of both revenue and expenses, but we are very committed to making sure that we have very strong revenue. We're not going to short expenses and investment for the sake of any short-term objectives.

The important thing over-time is to grow revenue. But clearly, expenses need to grow at a lower rate than revenue. We need positive operating leverage on a consistent basis to get there. So a combination of both, but in the long-run, I believe it is more of a revenue play with responsible investment and expense decisions and making sure that we have positive operating leverage.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay. All right. Thanks. And then separately on the deposit side, you had indicated the DirectExpress $3.5 billion in average deposit balances. You don't expect a material change based upon the extension and the way the agreement is right now, is there anything that could change that and if you could see potentially a faster decline in those balances than you anticipate at this point?

Peter L. Sefzik
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer at Comerica

John, it's Peter. I think the answer to that question is, no, nothing could change that, that we foresee at the moment. We're still working on what the transition process looks like. But as the year unfolds, we will certainly communicate that as we can to what the outlook appears to be. But at the moment, we don't see anything changing into in '25 and really certainly into '26 at the moment either. So I think the answer is we don't see any real changes to what we've communicated the last several quarters on this. And to the extent that it does, we will we will do our best to share that, but no changes at the moment.

John Pancari
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay, great. Thanks for the color.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Hey, Sean.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, Bernard.

Bernard Von Gizycki
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities

Hey, guys. Good morning. Just a question on expansion efforts. So you talked about expanding in areas like the Southeast and the Mountain West. Are there targets for like number of hires you're looking to add this year? Is there a way to think about how much of the expense base is in incremental expense initiatives?

Peter L. Sefzik
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer at Comerica

Bernard, it's Peter. So in the Southeast, I would say that we are certainly looking at opportunistic hiring. We did a lot of hiring the last couple of years and feel pretty good at sort of the ramp-up that we've had so-far. I think we feel like going into 2025, we're going to see opportunities and we tend to take advantage of those in the Southeast, but probably not the same ramp-up that we had the last two years, but definitely looking at folks and adding that market, particularly in our Florida market.

In the Mountain West, it's a little bit more -- probably a little more aggressive in the Mountain West, the extent that we can find talent, we're certainly looking at opportunities in the Denver market as well as in Phoenix. And so I think that that's -- both of those are markets that we would continue to add folks in. Now I would remind you too though, we have tremendous opportunity to add folks in-markets like DFW, in Houston, in Los Angeles and San Francisco. So we feel fortunate that we are in such great markets where the economy is doing really well, there's population growth and we feel like there's opportunities to continue to add folks in each of those markets on a go-forward basis.

Bernard Von Gizycki
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities

Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe just on M&A, like with an easing in the regulatory environment expected from here, just thoughts on how would you think about potentially doing a whole bank deal or a branch or like a portfolio acquisition? Just any areas of those that could be a potential interest?

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Thank you, Bernard. The strategy for us has really not changed. We have historically been a very patient acquirer. We've only done one deal in the last 20-plus years and are continuing to focus on organic growth. Peter just talked about the markets that we operate in. We think we've got lots of opportunities to continue to grow in those markets and also to continue to add talent selectively where it makes sense for us to do so.

And we feel like we've got the right balance of sort of product mix and focus as an organization, especially with our strong commercial focus as the best bank for what we believe businesses in the marketplace, but also a really strong wealth management and retail franchise. So we'll continue to be patient and really focus primarily on organic growth. Certainly, there might be some opportunities that come along that in terms of team lift-outs, in terms of product capabilities, et-cetera, that we'll look at periodically, but again, primarily focused on organic growth.

Bernard Von Gizycki
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Anthony Elian with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, Anthony.

Anthony Elian
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hi, hi, everyone. Does your loan growth outlook for 2025 include any uptick in utilization rates, which look like have been flat the past couple of quarters?

Peter L. Sefzik
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer at Comerica

Anthony, it's Peter. No, it really, it really doesn't. I think that you might consider that the alpha probably to all the banks loan outlook. I think utilization has been pretty flat for quite a while now. It's certainly been below historical numbers that people have been in this a long, long-time. Time, but we aren't necessarily factoring that into the outlook that we're providing. And to the extent utilization were to pick-up, that would be a good thing. Of course, any one of our businesses is going to have utilization sort of moving up-and-down depending on what's going on in that particular industry. But on the whole, what I would tell you is we've kind of -- we've pretty much kept it flat.

Anthony Elian
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Thank you. And then my follow-up, could you provide more color on NPAs maybe for Melissa. I know you called out the impacts from higher rates, but was there anything specific in the 4th-quarter that contributed to the increase you saw? Thank you.

Melinda A. Chausse
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer at Comerica

Yeah, this is Melinda. The NPA increase was about $58 million quarter-over-quarter, which on the whole for a portfolio of our size, I would consider that very, very modest. It was centered in around four or five different names, so still very granular. We did have one commercial real-estate loan move into the NPA category and that was approximately $30 million. So nothing really unusual. Again, the commonality there is pressure from higher interest rates on overall profitability and ability to service debt.

And the other commonality that we've seen, not just in NPAs, but really in the charge-offs this quarter were companies that have an orientation towards serving consumer discretionary product. There's just still some pressure there from a consumer perspective in terms of what they have available. But on the whole, the credit portfolio, I think performed quite well and the migration that we saw was pretty much expected and very much in-line with sort of the normalization trends. And just as one other comment, our absolute levels of NPAs at about 60 basis-points is about half of what our long-term average is. So yes, we saw an increase, but still relatively low and consider that pretty manageable from our perspective.

Anthony Elian
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Thank you.

Melinda A. Chausse
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer at Comerica

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. Please proceed with your question.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Good morning, Chris.

Christopher McGratty
Analyst at KBW

So hey, good morning. Jim, a question on the modest balance sheet restructuring that you did in the quarter, the bond sale. I mean the earn-back within a year is pretty compelling. I guess the question, why not be more aggressive either now or in the next coming quarters? You've got the capital to absorb it and just it would I think, unlock that inefficiency that you talked about.

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

Good morning, Chris. When we look at the options for capital return, we still really do favor share repurchase over securities repositioning. Securities repositioning is essentially neutral intangible book-value in the long-run. It's just time geography. I realize it does move around earnings and maybe from an optic standpoint, spruce things up. But if we have to make choices, we would much rather put it in the share repurchase and other capital return options that we think have a real return to shareholders.

Christopher McGratty
Analyst at KBW

Okay. And then I guess my follow-up, just a clarification, Jim, on the guidance, are all the guide on NII fees, expenses relative to GAAP reported numbers that confirm that?

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

Yes. Yeah. Yeah, very relative to GAAP numbers.

Christopher McGratty
Analyst at KBW

Thank you.

James J. Herzog
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Comerica

As all the guides are.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no additional questions. I'll now turn the call-back to Mr Curt Farmer for closing remarks.

Curtis C. Farmer
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank at Comerica

Well, thank you to all of you for joining our call this morning. As always, thank you for your continued interest in Comerica. We hope you have a very good day. Thank you.

Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

Corporate Executives
  • Kelly Gage
    Director of Investor Relations
  • Curtis C. Farmer
    Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Comerica Incorporated and Comerica Bank
  • James J. Herzog
    Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
  • Peter L. Sefzik
    Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer
  • Melinda A. Chausse
    Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer
Analysts

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