American Airlines Group Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Thank you for standing-by, and welcome to American Airlines Group's 4th-Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press star 1-1 again. I would now like to hand the call over to Scott Long, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go-ahead.

Scott Long
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development at American Airlines Group

Thank you, Latif. Good morning, and welcome to the American Airlines Group 4th-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with prepared remarks, we have our CEO, Robert; and our CFO, Devin May. In addition to our Vice-Chair, Steve Johnson, we have a number of other senior executives in the room this morning for the Q&A session. Robert will start the call with an overview of our performance and Devin will follow with details on the 4th-quarter and full-year in addition to outlining our operating plans and outlook going-forward. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call for analyst questions, followed by questions from the media. To get-in as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

Before we begin today, we must state that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including statements concerning future revenues, costs, forecasts of capacity and fleet plans. These statements represent our predictions and expectations of future events, but numerous risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ from those projected. Information about some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in our earnings press release that was issued this morning as well as our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2024.

In addition, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude the impact of unusual items. A reconciliation of those numbers to the GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings press release, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. A webcast of this call will also be archived on our website. The information we are giving you on the call this morning is as of today's date, and we undertake no obligation to update the information subsequently.

Thank you for your interest and for joining us this morning. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Robert.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, American reported a 4th-quarter adjusted pre-tax profit of $808 million or an adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.86 above the high-end of the guidance we issued in early December. For the full-year, we reported an adjusted pre-tax profit of $1.8 billion or an adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.96. Thank you. I want to thank the American Airlines team for a great year and for their resiliency, continued hard work and dedication to delivering a safe and reliable operation for our customers. As I've said previously, at American, we're focused on delivering results.

As we closed out 2024, we achieved a number of notable milestones. With the ratification of a contract extension with our mechanics and fleet service team members in October, we now have multi-year agreements in-place with all of our largest work groups, providing labor cost certainty through 2027. We delivered nearly $500 million of value through our reengineering initiatives, nearly $100 million more than expected. The quarter, we announced a new 10-year agreement with Citi to become the exclusive issuer of the Advantage co-branded credit card portfolio in the United States, which we expect will drive substantial incremental value to American over the life of the agreement while unlocking even more value for Advantage members.

In 2022, we generated record free-cash flow of $2.2 billion in 2024. And I'm excited to report that as of the end of 2024, we have reduced our total debt by more than $15 billion from peak levels in mid-2021, achieving our initial debt reduction goal a full-year ahead of schedule. While there's still much work to do, these accomplishments are clear evidence that the American Airlines team is committed to delivering results and achieving our stated objectives.

Now on to our 4th-quarter performance. Total revenue grew 4.6% on 2.5% higher capacity year-over-year. This resulted in our unit revenue inflecting positive in the quarter, up 2% year-over-year and above the high-end of our December guidance. Passenger revenue strength throughout the 4th-quarter was broad-based. In the 4th-quarter, Americans year-over-year domestic, Atlantic, Pacific and total passenger unit revenue results led US network carriers. While Latin unit revenue was down on a year-over-year basis, we expect short-haul Latin year-over-year unit revenue to be positive in the first-quarter. This strong performance is the result of the actions we have taken and we're encouraged by the trends we see early in the year.

Demand for Americans product remains strong as evidenced by the continued strength of our business premium and loyalty revenue performance. In the 4th-quarter, managed business revenue was up 8% year-over-year, a sequential improvement of 2 points versus last quarter and we continue to see yield strength as we look-ahead into the new year. Premium revenue increased approximately 8% year-over-year. Paid load factor-in our premium cabins remains historically high and was up 3 points year-over-year with strength in both domestic and international. In the 4th-quarter, loyalty revenues were up approximately 14% year-over-year with Advantage members responsible for 75% of premium cabin revenue.

2024 was a record year for Advantage. Throughout the year, we had a record number of customers enrolled in the program with members earning and burning more miles than any year in our history. Spending on our co-branded credit cards was up 9.5% year-over-year in the 4th-quarter, further highlighting the value of our loyalty program. American is proud to have an industry-leading travel rewards program that is frequently acknowledged as providing the best-value for its members. Finally, we remain committed to providing a leading customer experience, especially for our premium customers. We're excited to introduce our new state-of-the-art flagship suite on our new Boeing 7879 and Airbus A321 XLR aircraft later this year.

Over the course of the next four years, we expect to grow our long-haul international capable fleet from approximately 125 aircraft today to nearly 200 aircraft in 2029. Additionally, American has led the way in introducing premium lounges and we're on-track to open our fifth flagship lounge this summer in Philadelphia, which marks the ninth premium lounge across the system. In the 4th-quarter, we introduced boarding automation as a first step to improving the boarding process and customer feedback has been overwhelmingly positive. American was the first airline to offer streaming entertainment on our mainline fleet, and we're proud to offer high-speed WiFi on more aircraft than any other domestic airline.

In December, we began the installation of high-speed satellite WiFi on our dual-class regional aircraft. We expect the entire fleet will be retrofitted by the end of this year. Additionally, we're in the process of redesigning our mobile app, making it easier to navigate and to provide more self-service options for our customers. Building on these customer-focused initiatives is one of our top priorities and we'll have more to share in the months ahead. Momentum in recovering revenue from indirect channels continued in the 4th-quarter, and we remain on-track to fully restore our revenue-share from indirect channels as we exit this year.

Our indirect flown revenue-share improvement was driven by sequential gains in corporate revenue-share, which has been the primary focus of our recovery efforts. Importantly, forward bookings continue to show strength into the first-quarter. As we enter the new year, we're in position to continue recovering share in indirect channels. We've completed new contracts with all of our agency partners that serve our corporate customers and agreed to new agreements with the leisure agencies that serve our most profitable leisure customers. Additionally, we've reviewed and reworked agreements with our corporate customers most affected by the previous strategy and largely restored share of those travelers in our hub markets.

Completing these steps provides a strong foundation for us to continue to compete for that business and restore our share in these important distribution channels and with those customers. Last year, we took steps to further grow and optimize Advantage. In December, we announced a 10-year agreement with Citi to become the exclusive issuer of the Advantage co-branded credit card portfolio in the US. American has had a partnership with Citi for more than 37 years. The strength of that partnership has enabled us to deliver first-class products and customer service to millions of Advantaged Card members, and we're excited to continue to partner with Citi.

Our 2024 cash from co-branded credit cards and other partners was $6.1 billion, an increase of 17% versus 2023. The 2024 amount includes a one-time cash payment received in the 4th-quarter related to our new credit card agreement. As we disclosed at the time of the announcement, we expect the agreement set to begin in 2026 will enable cash payments from our co-branded credit card and other partners to grow by approximately 10% annually. As annual cash payments from co-branded credit card and other partners approaches $10 billion, we expect annual pre-tax income will benefit by approximately $1.5 billion compared to 2024. Our expanded partnership with Citi will unlock more value and provide exciting new benefits to our customers. With the agreement completed, the teams have turned toward building the business and we look-forward to making several exciting announcements over the coming year.

Turning now to our operation. Thanks to the resiliency of the American Airlines team, we delivered another quarter of strong results despite a difficult operating environment. Operational disruptions are part of the airline business. And in American, we continue to show that operational resiliency and rapid recovery are part of our DNA. In the 4th-quarter, American ranked second in completion factor and on-time departures among the four largest US carriers. For the year, we achieved our second-best completion factor since the merger, carrying our largest-ever volume of passengers.

Looking ahead, continued investment in the operation and the technology that supports it will drive further improvements in our operating reliability and resiliency. In closing, we've achieved a number of important objectives in 2024 and our performance in the 4th-quarter shows what this team and what this airline are capable of. That foundation and the momentum we've built will serve us well in 2025.

Before I turn the call over to Devin, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge those impacted by the devastating wildfires in Southern California. Our hearts go out to those communities. Americans Advantage members and team members have donated more than $1.7 million in funds to the American Red Cross to support relief efforts, and we've donated supplies and care packages to families and firefighters in the Los Angeles area.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Devin to share more about our 4th-quarter and full-year financial results and our outlook for 2025.

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Thank you, Robert. Excluding net special items, we reported a 4th-quarter net income of $609 million or adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.86. We produced record 4th-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, up 4.6% year-over-year with unit revenue up 2% year-over-year. 4th-quarter unit cost, excluding fuel and net special items was up 5.7% year-over-year. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.9% and we produced an adjusted operating margin of 8.4%.

In 2024, we achieved nearly $500 million of savings from our reengineering the business initiatives, exceeding our goal by nearly $100 million. Most of the value in 2024 was due to better workforce management driven by process improvements and technology implementation, along with improved asset utilization and procurement savings. We also had nearly $350 million of working capital cash release, which exceeded our expectations and helped drive our 2024 free-cash flow performance. We remain focused on running the airline as efficiently as possible while enhancing the customer experience.

Moving to our fleet. In 2024, we took delivery of 20 new aircraft and 10 used aircraft resulting in $1.9 billion of aircraft capex. Total capex for 2024 came in at $2.7 billion. Looking ahead, we expect to take delivery of 40 to 50 new aircraft in 2025. Based on our current expectation for new deliveries, our 2025 aircraft capex, which also includes used aircraft purchases, spare engines and net PDPs is expected to be between $2 billion and $2.5 billion and our total capex is expected to be between $3 billion and $3.5 billion. We continue to expect moderate levels of capex moving forward with aircraft capex averaging between $3 billion and $3.5 billion for the remainder of the decade. We ended 2024 with $10.3 billion of total available liquidity and produced record free-cash flow of $2.2 billion.

During the 4th-quarter, we prepaid $750 million of near-term debt maturities and strategically repriced two term loans. We ended the year with total debt of $38.6 billion and net-debt of $31.6 billion, our lowest level of net-debt since 2015. With these actions, we achieved our total debt reduction goal of $15 billion from peak levels in mid-2021, a full-year ahead of schedule. We are thrilled to have delivered on this commitment and we remain focused on continuing to strengthen our balance sheet as we work toward our stated credit rating goal of BB. Previously, we committed to reducing total debt to less than $35 billion by year-end 2028. We are now committed to achieve that goal by the end of 2027.

Now on to the outlook for 2025. In the first-quarter, we expect capacity to be flat-to-down 2% year-over-year. This capacity is driven by lower capacity in the off-peak months of January and February, which combined are down approximately 3%, followed by growth of 3% to 4% in the peak travel period in March. We continue to expect full-year capacity to be up low-single digits, in-line with expected economic growth and our prior guidance. Our growth in 2025 is focused on improving our schedule in-markets that are not yet fully restored to historical levels, primarily in our Northern hubs. We expect our year-over-year capacity growth rates to be fairly balanced between domestic and international operations.

We will remain flexible and will adjust capacity in response to demand and the competitive environment in which we operate. We expect first-quarter revenue to be up 3% to 5% and for the full-year, we expect revenue growth of approximately 4.5% to 7.5% versus 2024. This is driven by continued indirect revenue recapture, strong demand for our product and a constructive industry backdrop with supply in-line with expected demand. First-quarter non-fuel unit costs are expected to be up high-single-digits year-over-year. This unit cost growth is driven by the reduction in year-over-year capacity, the mix of that capacity and the new collective bargaining agreements that were reached in the second-half of 2024. In the first-quarter, regional ASMs will be up approximately 17% as we return to full utilization and mainline capacity will be down 2% to 3%.

Based on the timing of our labor agreements and the shape of capacity, we expect unit costs to improve sequentially throughout the year from high-single-digits in the first-quarter to low-single digits as we exit the year. For the full-year, we expect non-fuel unit cost to be up mid-single digits year-over-year with a large majority of the cost growth coming from higher salaries and benefits. As we look out to 2026, we have certainty in our labor costs and the rate pressure from our new collective bargaining agreements will ease. We expect that in 2026, our year-over-year growth of our salaries and benefits per ASM will be well inside of inflation. We continue to focus on reengineering the business to become more efficient. Through best-in-class workforce management, efficient asset utilization and procurement transformation, we expect more than $200 million of incremental cost-savings in 2025.

Additionally, we are investing in a multi-year transformation in our IT and TechOps organizations to modernize technology, improve operations and optimize staffing costs. We anticipate continuing to productively utilize our workforce with mainline full-time employee counts staying approximately flat to 2024. This year, we also expect more than $100 million in additional working capital improvements. Based on our current demand assumptions and fuel price forecast, we expect a first-quarter loss of approximately $0.20 to $0.40 per diluted share. For the full-year, we are expecting to deliver adjusted earnings per diluted share of approximately $1.70 to $2.70. We expect another year of record free-cash flow generation in 2025 and are currently forecasting more than $2 billion of free-cash flow for the full-year.

Now, I'll turn it back to Robert for closing remarks.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Devin. As we start 2025, the long-term targets we outlined last March remain our focus, growing margins, generating sustainable free-cash flow and continuing to strengthen our balance sheet. Our priorities for this year will continue the momentum we built-in the back-half of last year and further our progress toward achieving our long-term targets. In 2025, we plan to operate with excellence and efficiently deliver a safe and reliable operation. Take a fresh look at our product and service as we sharpen our focus on the customer experience. First, continue to strengthen our network, both organically and through our airline partnerships.

Our December announcement with Citi was an important milestone for American. It will allow us to enhance advantage and further strengthen our leading travel awards and co-branded credit card program ecosystem. All of these priorities, including the restoration of our core sales and distribution initiatives will allow us to deliver on our revenue potential and we'll continue our work to reengineer the business as we build a more efficient airline. We know that by delivering on our commitments, we'll unlock significant value for our shareholders. Thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

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Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press star 11 again. To allow everyone the opportunity to participate, you will be limited to one question and one follow-up. Please standby while we compile the Q&A roster from the line of Catherine your line is open Catherine

Catherine
Analyst at

Morning everyone thanks so much for the time so we don't know exactly what low single-digit capacity growth means for the year, but if I just use 2%, that means RASM growth is about 4% for the year versus the 5% I'm getting in 1Q on your guidance. I understand capacity growth accelerates over the year. But can you talk about your assumptions on indirect revenue improvement and the industry outlook underlying that full-year guide? And just really wondering like what could go better than your base-case? Thank you.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

So, Catherine, thanks. I'll start on our expectations for indirect revenue recovery and Devin can speak to capacity and Steve can add anything that he thinks is important as well. We're on-track for recovering what we had lost. I feel really good about the progress we've made in a short six-month period. And as we take a look and you can see from our notes, as we take a look at forward bookings, it really suggests that we've got traction in the marketplace. So I have great confidence that we're going to recover fully as we move through the year. And then I'd just also note this that we also believe that from a revenue performance perspective, even outside of indirect channels, we think that we're poised to perform and outperform. You saw it in our 4th-quarter results and I can't speak to others' assumptions, but in an environment where the economy is improving, I think that we're going to improve faster than our largest competitors. Devin?

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah. And I don't think there's any big moves in the quarterly capacity numbers. We guided the first-quarter, which would be down 0% to 2%. The remaining quarters will probably all-up in the neighborhood of 3% per quarter in terms of ASM capacity, which catch you about that midpoint on low-single-digit capacity for the year.

Steve Johnson
Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group

Kathryn, this is Steve. I'll just follow-up with you. You asked about sources of potential upside from our base-case. I'll just offer three. First, I think that there's a decent chance that we could restore our sales and distribution -- but restore sales and distribution revenue faster than Roberts by the end of 2025. I think that's an upside. Second, I would point you to both the 3rd-quarter and especially the 4th-quarter. Ultimately, we're going to be judged on everything and certainly revenue by our results and I think the 4th-quarter shows what we're capable of. And then finally, I'd just point to our agreement with Citi. The new agreement doesn't start until 2026. And so the growth that we -- that we focus on from -- won't start until then. But there is -- to get to that, there is a ramp-up effort underway that I think could provide upside in our co-brand revenue during the year?

Catherine
Analyst at

That's great. Thanks for that additional color, Steve. Devin, maybe one more for you. As you've reached your medium-term debt goal, can you speak to how you're thinking about capital allocation between now and that longer-term goal in 2027, understand you have more deleveraging to do to hit that 2027 goal. And then you mentioned a BBB credit rating. But what's the gating factor to consider shareholder returns? Thanks so much for all-the-time. Thank you.

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Katie. Well, to start, we are really proud of achieving the $15 billion goal that we set-out to do two or three years ago at this point, and we achieved it a year early. But our focus still remains on improving the balance sheet. We've set another near-term goal here to have it total debt down another $4 billion to around $35 billion by 2027. So we'll focus on that. We'll continue to focus on reinvesting in the business. And as we continue to improve free-cash flow and improve the balance sheet, we'll come back and talk more about other capital allocation priorities.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham of Melius Research. Your question please, Connor our next question comes from the line of Connor Cunningham of Melius Research. Your line is open, Connor please make sure your line isn't muted. And if you have a speakerphone, lift your handset we'll go to the next question. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research. Your question please, Scott.

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So Devin, I think you laid out CASM going from high singles to start the year towards low singles ending the year. It doesn't seem like guidance implies a big deceleration in RASM throughout the year. So can you just talk about like how you see the progression of like price-cost on like a net basis on trending throughout the year?

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Well, I'll just start by talking a little bit about our cost performance because right now, we are seeing some more pressure in the first-quarter than we are during the rest of the year. So to start, we are really proud of our cost performance over the last several years. I'm excited about what the company is doing to reengineer the business and drive more efficiencies. I think we're making really nice investments in technology. The operations team is really leaning into this and I think we're delivering a more efficient operation, a better operation for our customers. And in the first-quarter, though, we are seeing unit costs up high-single-digits. It's a handful of things.

We have less capacity in the first-quarter than we did a year-ago. That starts to change as we grow capacity in the last 3/4 of the year. We have a ton of regional capacity coming online. As you know, that's higher-cost capacity than the mainline capacity. It's actually driving average gauge to be down 4% to 5% in the first-quarter year-over-year. Stage-length is down as well. And then, of course, the labor agreements that were signed in the back-half of last year weren't in our base for this year. So we see a lot of cost pressure in the first-quarter. It eases throughout the year. We feel we're incredibly well-positioned as we get into 2026 and we know we run the business as efficiently as anybody.

On the margin side, I don't think there's any quarter that show outsized margin improvement year-over-year. We've guided EPS to a midpoint of $2.20. So we are seeing nice EPS improvement year-over-year, but I don't think you're going to see any 1/4 pop really materially versus what we performed -- versus how we performed in 2024?

Scott Group
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. And then can you just talk about maybe the progression of RASM throughout Q4 and then just regionally how you see RASM playing out in Q1 like Transatlantic was up 12% in Q4. Can that sustain itself in the near-term? Just any regional color? Thank you.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Well, Scott, thanks for that. I'd just point to the 4th-quarter in which we had strong performance across-the-board. So Atlantic, Pacific and then also domestic in terms of year-over-year improvement led our network competitors. And overall, we led it as well. As we take a look out into this year, I see continued strength domestically. And the strong dollar is absolutely going to have an impact on of buying and travel to Europe this summer. So we take a look to March and as we look to some of our peak periods, spring break and getting into the summer, I see robust demand across-the-board. We've talked about premium traffic as being wind behind our sales and also something that I think that we're going to be able to do even better in. And Steve mentioned some of the things that are going to be additive as well in terms of potential for even better performance. So overall, really confident about the year and like what we see and how we can operate in this environment.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker of JPMorgan Securities. Your line is open, Jamie.

Jamie Baker
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hey, good morning, everybody. So an interesting statistic that United throughout yesterday was that the margin gap between its best and worst-performing hubs had narrowed to, I guess, the lowest gap in I think it was nine or 10 years. We've discussed Americans relative hub performance on these calls and in-person for quite some time. But I never asked about the range. Would you be willing to comment on that margin range between your top and bottom hubs and whether it's improving or widening obviously a lot of moving pieces in many of your hubs at the moment. Thanks.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Okay. Hey, thanks, Jamie and I'll start, Devin and Steve can add-in. Look, it's no secret that we've had to build back our network and we have a large portion of our network that is supported by our regional fleet. I feel great that in 2025, we're going to have our regional fleet fully deployed. And what that's going to allow us to do is better fill out some of the hubs that quite frankly, you know, are ready and I think willing to support the network in a different way. But we've got to put the growth -- we've got to put the capacity there. So you're going to -- you're going to see the largest schedules that we've ever had in places like DFW in Charlotte, Miami in its peak will be bigger than it's ever been.

DCA, which had been a laggard coming out-of-the pandemic is now getting back to the performance levels that we had hoped. And we talked about some of the work that we're going to be doing in Chicago. So across-the-board, we see performance improving. Some of the weaker points in our network as we take a look to the coast in New York and out in Los Angeles, and I'd say this that the schedule changes that we've made in LaGuardia, the largest schedules that we've run since the pandemic, I believe, just as we closed out the 4th-quarter, we're really seeing nice results in terms of where we put that capacity.

And so from that perspective, I believe that we have improved considerably our New York performance. And I hope -- and I hope and have confidence that, that will be something that we can maintain going-forward. In Los Angeles, from that perspective, there are some capacity restrictions. But on that front, that's one where we really do partner well with our OneWorld partner, Alaska Airlines, and we look-forward to continuing that progress. So when you take a look at American, you've always known that DFW, Charlotte, DCA and DCA getting back into the ranks have performed well. Philadelphia is getting back to where it should be. Phoenix has historically been strong. And then as I mentioned, we've got a focus on the coasts in Chicago.

Jamie Baker
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Yeah. That's helpful. And then you know what -- well, I have you, Robert, when I last saw you, which I think was in September, you mentioned you were spending half your time on efforts to reconcile with corporate accounts. And I think you said that publicly in a -- at a conference or two and I don't know if you actually meant precisely 50% or if that was just sort of metaphorical. But by the way you described the effort in your prepared remarks, makes it sound like most of that effort is behind you. Is that the right interpretation? I guess, I'm just confused on exactly where American is on the reconciliation front and how managed corporate recovery trends from here? Thanks in advance.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Jamie. Look, I will give a ton of credit to our commercial team, led by Steve Johnson for the enormous amount of work that had to be put in and they absolutely enlisted me in that effort. And I will say, I don't know if it's 50% of the time, I spent a considerable amount of my time making sure that I was up to speed and talking to our corporate customers and agencies as well. That work is paying-off. It's foundational in that, don't forget, these contracts are set-up over a period of time. Revenue doesn't show-up right away, but we're not resting on that. We're learning from certainly the issues associated with our past strategy. And that I believe bodes well for the future. So, Steve, why don't you spend some time talking about progress and how you feel about where things are headed?

Steve Johnson
Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group

Sure, Jamie. And let me start by saying I -- the team and I feel-good about that as Robert said in his opening remarks and again just a second ago, we're on-track to achieve the commitment that he's made to fully recover our share buyback end of 2025. As I said earlier, I think we can beat that. But it's not a linear process and it's kind of event-driven if you know what I mean. We saw in the 3rd-quarter Robert's comments at Bernstein when he said that we were abandoning the old strategy that had an impact on share. We -- the restoration of content into Ed effect had an impact on share. The engagement with our partners in the 3rd-quarter, what Robert was just talking about that sometimes referred to around here as the apology tour. That had an impact on share.

The 4th-quarter was -- lots of work done in the 4th-quarter, but a little bit different and maybe that it accounts for non-acceleration that you might have been looking for over the course of the last three months. But the 4th-quarter task was actually on infrastructure. It was making new agreements with all of our partners in the indirect community. It's an arduous task, kind of counterparty by counterparty. While it was going on, understandably, we were negotiating, so you didn't see a lot of share shift during that period of time. Indeed, some of our partners sent us either even stronger messages during those negotiations. But it was ultimately successful and we now have new agreements with 30 of the most important TMCs and agencies.

And as Robert said earlier, we've modified the economics for all of our significant corporate customers who were impacted by our old strategy. And as we -- as we say and our partners say even more frequently, three airlines are better than one and those agreements create real incentives to move business to American. And indeed, the agreements with the TMCs and the agencies create real incentives to reestablish the share equilibrium that existed at the beginning of 2023. So I expect those agreements are going to be big drivers of share shift in the first and second-quarter. And so you'll see continued progress.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Connor Cunningham of Meli's Research. Please go-ahead, Connor.

Conor Cunningham
Analyst at Melius Research

Hi, everyone. Can you hear me now?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

We've got you Connor.

Conor Cunningham
Analyst at Melius Research

Can you hear me?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Go-ahead, Connor.

Conor Cunningham
Analyst at Melius Research

Someday I'll figure out how to use. Someday I'll figure out how to use the phone. Can you -- can you -- so I'm just trying to take all this. You sound like there's upside in indirect corporate share regains and then the loyalty stuff as well as well as just like sequentially improving costs throughout the year. But your full-year guidance at the low-end suggests a decline year-over-year in earnings. And I'm just trying to understand that part a little bit better. It just seems -- like are you assuming that the main cabin doesn't get any better from here? It just seems really conservative, just given what we've heard from you today and what we've heard from others so-far. Just trying to understand it a little bit better. Thank you.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Okay. Connor, I'll start. Devin can add-in here. Look, again, we can only forecast based on what we know and what we see right now. We don't know what others are putting into their models. We've told you that we think there's continued strength and that in terms of revenue performance and especially given the capacity that we're putting in, we see significant growth in our unit revenues. Now, if there is a better overall performance in the industry, as I said, I think that we'll continue to show outperformance because of the things that we've been doing. So that's my comment in terms of questions about how is your forecast versus what the assumptions others are making. Devin, anything you want to add?

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah. I'd just say the midpoint of our guide is $2.20. That's up more than 10% versus what we did in 2024. There's obviously variability in earnings. We think the midpoint is what we seek to achieve. We'd like to do better than that, but we put a range of outcomes because there is still some volatility that's there in things like fuel or some amount of economic risk at a macro-level. But right now, we feel really good about the midpoint on the guide and it's a nice year-over-year improvement and we hope to exceed that.

Conor Cunningham
Analyst at Melius Research

Okay, that's helpful. And then on the Citi contract or Citi, the renegotiation, I'm just trying to understand that a little bit better. So the economics change in '26, but I think that there's a volume and spend related component in '25. So can you just help bridge the contribution of how that will evolve earnings contribution, how that evolves over that change from '25 to '26? It just seems again like there's this potential for the surprise. So just thoughts there. Thank you.

Steve Johnson
Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group

Sure. Let me see if I -- if I understand the question, we will -- in our existing agreement includes minimums for new accounts and new business that Barclays and Citi have committed to. Those we expect them to overperform on those as part of the ramp-up into 2026 is that helpful?

Conor Cunningham
Analyst at Melius Research

Yeah, no, that's thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley. Your question please, Ravi..

Ravi Shanker
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to start with a follow-up on the corporate normalization commentary. I think you said that you adjusted the economics for some of the biggest accounts there. Can you just unpack that a little bit more? How does the profitability of the corporate business compared to where it was before now that like or once the share is normalized.

Steve Johnson
Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group

Sure. The adjustments, we've evolved our business with our corporate customers over the course of the last seven or eight months. We talked about this on the last earnings call. Some of this had to do with macro changes that we made like on reestablishing what we call corporate experience, but a certain set of unique corporate experienced advantages for our traveling corporate customers, employees on waivers and favors allowing travel agents to, in certain cases, you know, to book flights or change tickets that are not completely consistent with the general rules that apply. So some of that was, I think very helpful.

But as part of the former strategy, we had created a kind of one-size fits-all discount -- discounting system for corporations that across-the-board for anyone who was impacted by that reduced discounts to, I think, an uncompetitive level. And so -- and that impacted about 24% of our corporate customers. Those were the ones that over the course of the strategy, their contracts came up and we were able to change them. So with respect to those customers, we've gone back, worked with them, negotiated with them and established economics that are more consistent with the past and more competitive. On all cases, those -- the revenue from those agreements even with a little bit better discounting is going to be very accretive.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah. And Steve, I think we've said this that when we talk about sales expense and bringing back sales team and potential impact on some of the things that we're doing, that overall cost impact is going to be less than a point of CASM. But again, all of this is going to be highly beneficial to the company?

Ravi Shanker
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. That's a helpful explanation. And maybe as a follow-up, you guys mentioned upgraded WiFi, which is great to hear. But kind of as we kind of enter like a new era of premium cabins, if you will, obviously, you guys have new planes, but how do you think about bring-your-own-device versus screens on seats and maybe the ability to kind of monetize those screens over-time?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

So, can you -- can you say that one more time? I missed the part of that question.

Ravi Shanker
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

So the question was kind of as we enter a new era of premium cabins, how do you guys think about bringing your own device versus having integrated screens on seats? Kind of does one versus the other kind of impact your ability to either kind of sell a premium service or monetize that screen over-time.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Oh, no. So Ravi, thanks for that question and let me talk about some of the things that we anticipate regarding product going-forward. We're really pleased to announce the introduction of our new flagship suite and that's going to be coming on the 7879s and the 321 XLRs. And one of the things you'll note is those are -- look, let's face it, those are international aircraft long-haul. And one of the things that we're going to make sure is our customers, especially in the premium cabins and from that perspective, any international seats that they -- that they have access to screens in addition to the latest in terms of WiFi and streaming entertainment.

So those aircraft are going to be fully equipped. You'll see that we're doing reconfigurations on our 77 300s and adding flagship suites to that and offering more premium seating overall. Same with that, that will come with the latest in terms of technology in seatback as well. Now from a domestic perspective, we've said that we're really interested in making sure that our customers have access to Wi-Fi, satellite-based WiFi on everything that they fly. And while we can't offer it on the smallest regional jets, you note that we will have streaming WiFi installed as part of our initiative this year so that all of our larger narrow -- our larger regional aircraft will have a satellite-based WiFi by the end-of-the year.

And with that, once you've got that kind of comprehensive approach, it allows us to do some different offerings. So you'll hear more from us as the year progresses in terms of how we can take even better care of our customers, especially those that are the highest -- highest tier. And as well, you'll see more in terms of partnerships and relationships. Our relationship with Apple Plus is really something industry record-setting and we anticipate that is just the start of where things will go.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Duane Fenigwerth of Evercore ISI. Please go-ahead, Duane.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just on your Northern Hub build-out that comment kind of caught our attention. Can you talk about what inning you're in and maybe expand on how much of your footprint transitioned over to JetBlue, how much of that has transitioned back and basically what your footprint in your Northern hubs looks like now versus pre-pandemic.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

But Duane, I'll start and Steve can elaborate further. But I'll just note two points write-off and that's LaGuardia and DCA. We're going to be back to our largest schedules, largest number of seats offered in both LaGuardia and DCA since the pandemic. And that I believe is indicative of the focus that we're putting on. And by the way, we're seeing really nice results with that added capacity. In terms of Philadelphia, that had been one of the markets that have been most -- most difficult for us given the pull-down of regional aircraft. And the same holds true for Chicago. As we restore our regional aircraft lift, the beneficiaries of that are going to be Philadelphia and Chicago. In Philadelphia, Steve, I don't quite know the size of Philadelphia compared to prior times, but I think we're getting close to back to where we were.

Steve Johnson
Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah, and that's the intention to have Philadelphia more or less the same size as it was pre-pandemic.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Analyst at Evercore ISI

So that's helpful. And then I don't know if you have a metric to share, but just on how you measure competitive capacity, how do you see that in 1Q and maybe an early read on 2Q versus what you were seeing maybe in 4Q. Thanks for taking the questions.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

So, Duane, I'll start with this. Look, competitive capacity, it's important, but it's all important to the extent that it drives profitability. We're focused on margins and we're focused on making sure that we take advantage of the assets and the strengths that we have. So we're focused on that, but obviously, keeping track of what's going on in the marketplace. And if there is an impact in any one of the places that we fly, we're going to adjust accordingly. The good thing about the fleet that we've built-up, despite the difficulties that we have with supply-chain and aircraft deliveries throughout is we spent since the merger, $30 billion-plus in terms of new aircraft. We have the youngest fleet. We don't anticipate any big retirements coming up and we have the ability to flex this fleet in a very economic fashion should we find that conditions warrant expansion. So you'll see us with moderate growth based on expectations for this year as we get-out into latter stages of 2025 and 2026. If it's -- if demand and profitability warrant an adjustment, we'll be ready to go?

Steve Johnson
Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah. And I'd just add that to the extent that you're asking that question based on an ASM growth comparison, I just also look at the growth in departures and recognize that as we grow, we're going to have our growth in the most competitive time channels and most competitive places possible. So it's -- I don't know that ASMs is the perfect measure for comparing.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank. Your question please, Michael.

Michael Linenberg
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Yeah, hey, good morning. Two sort of fleet related questions here. Just on the comment on growing your international fleet from 120 to 200 by 2029. At that point in time, how many A321 Neo XLRs will you have in your fleet at that point? And presumably that's in that 200 number.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah, that is in the 200 number, and we expect to have 40 meals at that point.

Michael Linenberg
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Great.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Sorry, 40 XLRs at that point.

Michael Linenberg
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Great. And then just my second question. As we think about fleets getting old and I know your fleet is aging and we start and more specifically widebodies and the ability to procure widebodies. I know economically it makes sense to procure narrow-bodies from both OEMs. You guys do that and it's helped you out well with the and the 321 or 320neos. Is -- are we at a point where the decision to do that with wide-body aircraft, whether it's to procure from different OEMs or even from two different families within the same OEM. When you think about your replacement for your widebodies probably later this decade. Thanks for taking my questions.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Mike. And I'll start and others can chime in. I really like where we're at in terms of our fleet. We're the operator the world's largest fleet of 320 family aircraft. We're one of the world's largest operators of 73737 aircraft. We've got the MAX 8s and fortunately those are being delivered and we've got this order out for the MAX 10s. Now the benefit in having these large fleets and kind of one flavor, it's really helpful from an efficiency perspective, right? We're not out there with a dozen different aircraft types. Our pilots, our flight attendants, our catering, our servicing our maintenance, engine supply-chain, you think about it, it greatly simplifies what we're doing. We had that same philosophy from a widebody perspective and we love the 787 model, the eighths and then the nines are going to be the real workhors as we go-forward.

We know that our customers love it as well. As we take a look at the 77s, the 77300 is going to be around for some time and they're going to be getting a refresh and it's starting this year, we'll see the benefit of the flagship suites coming out. Those are going to be in the fleet for a long-time. We've got a decision to make about 77 200 at some point in time, whether we reconfigure or do something else. And we're in contact with Airbus. We're in contact with Boeing as well. And we're also mindful of the benefits that we get by having a simplified fleet and with fleet types that give you great flexibility depending on range and demand. In the comment about your fleet is getting older, that's true. It's just nature of time. But the fact of the matter is we're starting from a much better spot than any of our competitors.

As Dev -- as Devin has said, our anticipated capital spending over the long-run and this is to provide virtually any growth level of growth that we want, especially if we have the ability to keep older aircraft around and hold-off the retirements. It is very modest. So $3.5 billion type range as we take a look out in 2026 and beyond. 2025 is a real low spot in terms of capital spending. So we already have the lowest average age for our fleet. We don't have retirements coming up. And I see that as others have to invest in their fleet and are talking about numbers that are more than double of those kind of capital expenditures and the difficulty and at least with delivery of aircraft these days, I really like where we're at.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski of Barclays. Your question please, Brandon.

Brandon Oglenski
Analyst at Barclays

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the question. Robert, I guess if you step-back, I mean, because obviously so much has changed in the past year, especially since the Investor Day, I think in March of last year. But obviously, you've talked about a lot getting corporate share back, but how would you articulate American's commercial strategy going-forward today. And I guess I'm just observing here, but it feels like maybe you're still in a zone of defense. When does that then transition into an offensive front with that strategy?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah. Thanks for that question. Do you -- and our Investor Day commitments, we stand-by them. I don't like that we're not -- we haven't grown margins. And as I take a look out into the future, and as Devin has said, I do believe that we're set-up well to grow margins, especially because of everything that we've done from an efficiency perspective. And I'm going to get back to the other side of the equation because it's not just a cost perspective. But you combine, you know the record free-cash flow production that we produced, we've done a really nice job of getting this airline set-up so that we're not worried about balance sheet issues and that puts us in a very different position.

I've talked to you about our fleet. And as we take a look going-forward, you are going to see this year, American absolutely spend a lot more time than focused and energy in terms of improving our customer experience in a way that we can monetize. So from that perspective, we have a foundation built that I think others are trying to catch-up on, whether it's establishment of satellite WiFi across all fleets, pre ultra-premium lounges, which we're going to be introducing a new Philadelphia lounge to add to the complement that we already have. This collection of premium seating on our aircraft and whether it's the new flagship suites on 7878s or 7879s and the XLRs or whether it's just the domestic product where we're so strong. We have a regional product that others can't touch in terms of the E175.

And in terms of the rest of the fleet, you'll see that the older aircraft that we have, whether it's the 320s and 319s, they're going to going to be both getting upgraded. And so I feel like we have all the pieces of the puzzle in-place to really take-off. Now we've got some work to do putting that together and selling and telling our story better. But we are the largest in the best market in the world here in the US. We've got an enviable position in the biggest business markets. When. When you think about London Heathrow and in Tokyo, we've got the best set of partners around the world in those biggest markets. Americans got a lot of momentum as we look-forward.

Brandon Oglenski
Analyst at Barclays

I appreciate that, Robert. And then, Devin, I know you talked a lot about the cost headwinds this year. But is there any productivity offsets potentially in these new labor agreements and especially in the context of that simplified fleet that Robert was just discussing?

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Not necessarily offsets related to the labor agreements themselves. I think the offsets we're finding is just a lot of work on efficiency and investing in the right technologies. As we've talked about last year, our reengineering the business efforts generated about $500 million in value. This year, we think we're going to generate a couple of hundred million dollars, but that's net of some really meaningful investments that we're making in our IT shop that we're making in our organization to digitalize all the work that they are doing.

So I feel great about the investments we're making. It doesn't all necessarily payback in this calendar year. But we look out to 2026, I think our cost profile is going to look really good. I've always said, I look-back over the last several years, I think we performed better than anybody when it comes to unit cost delivery. So we're not necessarily seeing anything in the labor agreements. That's not what we're going after in those labor agreements, but we are running a more efficient business right now and I think we're going to run a more efficient business a year from now than we are today.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be taking questions from media. Media, please press star 1-1 on your telephone to remove yourself from the queue. You may press star 1-1 again. To allow everyone the opportunity to participate, you will be limited to one question and one follow-up. Again, we are taking media questions at this time. Please standby while we compile the Q&A roster our first question comes from the line of Allison Sider of Wall Street Journal. Your question please, Alison.

Alison Sider
Analyst at Wall Street Journal

Hey, thanks so much. I'm curious after the Starship breakup last week, how concerned are you about sort of the operational and safety impacts from -- yeah, from space launches? And is there anything you're asking the FAA to do differently in terms of kind of how it handles those?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Well, Ali, thanks for the question. We're in constant contact with DOT and FAA. And no doubt launches do have an impact on our network, especially given the aerospace issues that are impacted. So what we do, we coordinate closely. I've got David Seymour here, our Chief Operating Officer and what he'll -- I think what I'll tell you is that we -- the coordination effort is better than it's ever been and that one of the things we try to do is work with any launches to make sure that they are as least impactful in terms of time a day that they take place. Dave, you want to add anything?

Devon May
Chief Financial Officer at American Airlines Group

Yeah. I think, Robert, you said the right things in our coordination with them. And I think it's just -- for the FAA is going to be very mindful of those launches and they executed their strategy in locking out a containment zone for that launch, you know, and it was disruptive to us in terms of diversions that we had to do holding aircraft on-the-ground, but we recovered well. But as Robert said, the coordination right now that we have with the FA and air traffic side is never been better and you know we're going to continue to work with them on that.

Alison Sider
Analyst at Wall Street Journal

And I mean, do you know or is there anything you want to be done differently for future launches in terms of the sort of perimeter for the closed airspace or the timing of launches or anything you're looking to change from a safety perspective?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

We're still waiting for the FAA to continue their review of that, but on the surface right now, I don't see anything different that we're going to see. They've done a lot of work-over the last several years of actually continuing to manage that. So we have really -- not as impacted as we were in the past, but we're going to work with them. But I think they need to continue their review of that situation and then we'll get back and see if we need to just plans.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mary Slangenstein of Bloomberg News. Your question please, Mary.

Mary Schlangenstein
Analyst at Bloomberg News

Hi, thanks. I wanted to ask about the IFE on the premium cabin that you're talking about going-forward. I'm wondering what was the -- what's been responsible for that shift in your approach on IFE, it's just competitive pressure, something that consumers are demanding or what's behind that?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Oh, hey, Mary, just you might have mistaken something. In terms of our IFE strategy, in-flight -- seatback entertainment on our international-based widebody aircraft or in the case the 321 XLRs, those will be equipped to take care of our customers. The rest of our fleet will have satellite-based WiFi, except for the smallest regional jets.

Mary Schlangenstein
Analyst at Bloomberg News

Right. But you don't currently have IFE on your international widebodies or am I wrong on that?

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

We currently have IFE on our international-based aircraft.

Mary Schlangenstein
Analyst at Bloomberg News

Thank you. Sorry about that. And the other question I wanted to ask was what changes that you potentially foresee from the Trump administration in terms of either the operations of the FAA and ATC issues with them trying to step-up hiring or make changes faster than the past administration had to change the ATC issues affecting the airlines.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Well, as I said in some earlier comments, I think President Trump and the administration, they recognize the importance of aviation to commerce. They certainly did that during the first Trump administration in response to COVID and the support that was provided to the industry. It's a reason why the industry is as strong as it is today and that credit really does go to the first Trump administration and the quick reaction. Now in regard to what we do next, I do believe that it's imperative that we look at investing in air traffic control. We know that there's a huge tax put on efficiency for the airlines on our customers in terms of the time it takes to fly. And ultimately, we've got to address it because there's a lot of growth that I think is possible and hope for in the industry. But we can't keep on jamming more aircraft into the skies in a way that can't be serviced efficiently.

So today, it takes a lot longer to fly from Chicago to New York or Washington to New York than it did 20 years ago. There's no reason for that. There's plenty of room in the sky. There's technology that we can be deploying that would be helpful from an overall control perspective. And also our aircraft are actually equipped to handle and to perform in a different system. So we've got a lot of work to do. It's going to take investment, but I have great confidence that will be the type of work that we're able to engage on. And the last thing I'll just say is I also believe that the administration will be very cognizant of regulatory issues that can benefit both the airlines and our customers as well, and we'll be working closely with them on that. So I'm very, very optimistic about the future.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Leslie Josephs of CNBC. Please go-ahead, Leslie.

Leslie Josephs
Analyst at CNBC

Hi, good morning, everyone. Just considering what the Trump administration has said about DEI and how they're extending that ordering changes within the federal government, I was just curious where American Airlines stands. I see the website says CEI are foundational to American Airlines culture and that you plan to leave the industry with CEI. Any changes there internally? And do you have any concerns about the review at the FAA that the federal government is doing. Thanks.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Leslie. I can't speak to anything going on with the FAA. I'll just say that at American, we've always had a philosophy of hiring the best -- best team members that we can possibly bring into the company. We serve 650,000 plus on peak days customers, 650,000-plus customers of all backgrounds and places throughout the world. We have 130,000 team members that work-in all parts of the globe. And our efforts here are going to be to focus on caring for people on life's journey. And in that, we're going to do that in a way that's beneficial for our customers and profitable for our airline. That's going to be our guiding factor as we go-forward in looking for ways to better take care of our customers and better take care of our team members. That's front and center and that is where Americans headed.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. This concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I would now like to turn the conference back to Robert for closing remarks. Sir.

Robert Isom
Chief Executive Officer at American Airlines Group

Thanks, Latif. I appreciate everybody's interest and time today. And I'd just like to reiterate that the 4th-quarter was a quarter for us in which we laid down some incredibly important milestones. It was important for us to outperform the industry in terms of revenue production year-over-year. It was important for us to achieve record free-cash flow that put us in-place to take advantage of a lot of other things that we've been doing in this company to make sure that our balance sheet is as strong as possible. And we're excited about the challenges that we've taken on, not only to restore our revenue performance, but also to expand -- expand upon that and take advantage of everything that we've built-in this airline over the last several years.

And so I'll reiterate our commitment to our customers to take care of them in the best possible fashion. And then I'll also reiterate our commitment to our investors. We are intent on growing margins, producing sustainable free-cash flow, further continuing to strengthen our balance sheet and there's a tremendous amount of upside in American right now. When you take a look at our performance and what we're capable of doing as we look out into 2025 and going into 2026, American is poised to outperform. Thank you for your time.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Corporate Executives
  • Scott Long
    Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development
  • Robert Isom
    Chief Executive Officer
  • Devon May
    Chief Financial Officer
  • Steve Johnson
    Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer
Analysts

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