United Rentals Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the United Reynolds Investor Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded.

Before we begin, please note that the company's press release, comments made on today's call and responses to your questions contain forward-looking statements. The company's business and operations are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond its control. And consequently, actual results may differ materially from those projected. A summary of these uncertainties is included in the safe-harbor statement contained in the company's press release.

For a more complete description of these and other possible risks, please refer to the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended, 31 December 2024, as well as to subsequent filings with the SEC. You can access these filings on the company's website at. Please note that United Reynolds has no obligation and makes no commitment to update or publicly release any revisions to forward-looking statements in order to reflect new information or subsequent events, circumstances or changes in expectations.

You should also note that the company's press release and today's call include references to non-GAAP terms such as free-cash flow, adjusted EPS, EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to the back of the company's recent investor presentations to see the reconciliation from each non-GAAP financial measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure.

Speaking today for United Reynolds is Matt Flennery, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ted Grace, Chief Financial Officer.

I will now turn the call over to Mr Flennery. MR. Flennery, you may begin.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our call. We are pleased to report our solid 4th-quarter results yesterday as the year culminated with record revenue, EBITDA and EPS. We again saw growth across our construction and industrial end-markets as well as continued strong demand for used equipment. Our team doubled down on being the best partner of choice for our customers. Our diligence on safety, coupled with unmatched service, technology and operational excellence translated into the results we reported. Reported. Importantly, all of this sets the foundation for our future growth.

Today, I'll discuss our 4th-quarter results, followed by our expectations for 2025. And finally, recap why we are excited about the H&E acquisition we announced a few weeks ago. And then Ted will discuss the financials in detail before we open up the call for Q&A, which we will keep focused on United Rentals as a standalone company. Our plan remains to update the investment community on the combined companies after the transaction closes, which is still expected by the end of our first-quarter.

So with that, let's start with the 4th-quarter results. Our total revenue grew 9.8% year-over-year to almost $4.1 billion. And within this, rental revenue grew by 9.7% to $3.4 billion, both 4th-quarter records. Fleet productivity increased by 4.3% as-reported and 2%. Adjusted EBITDA increased to a 4th-quarter record of $1.9 billion, translating to a margin of over 46%. And finally, adjusted EPS grew year-over-year to $11.59, another 4th-quarter record. Now let's turn to customer activity.

We saw growth in both our Gen Rent and specialty businesses. Specialty rental revenue impressively grew more than 30% year-over-year and even without Yak, a strong 18% these results were driven by rental revenue across all businesses with a combination of solid same-store sales growth and an additional 15 cold-starts, putting us at 72 for the full-year. And as a reminder, these specialty cold-starts are a key element to accelerating our growth in this high-return segment. By vertical, we continue to see similar trends to the rest of last year with non-residential growth helping to fuel construction and industrial growth driven by manufacturing and power. And we saw new projects across data centers, chip manufacturing, sports stadiums and power to name a few.

Now turning to the used market, which continues to exhibit strong demand. We sold over $850 million of OEC in the quarter, which was a record for any quarter in our history. The depth and health of demand in the used market is allowing us to rotate our existing fleet to ensure we could serve our customers' needs efficiently. This is evident through our full-year capex of over $3.7 billion. And as a result, we drove free-cash flow of nearly $2.1 billion, which translated to a very healthy free-cash flow margin of over 13%.

The combination of our industry-leading profitability, capital efficiency and the flexibility of our business model enables us to generate meaningful free-cash flow throughout the cycle and in-turn, create long-term shareholder value. To that end, we returned over $1.9 billion to shareholders last year through a combination of share buybacks and our dividend. And while we paused our share repurchase plan ahead of the H&E closing, I'm pleased to announce we'll be raising our quarterly dividend by 10% year-over-year to $1.79 per share.

Now let's turn to 2025, which we expect to be another year of growth, again led by large project growth. Customer optimism, backlogs and feedback from our field team combined with the demand we're carrying into the new year, all support our guidance. This was reinforced at our annual management meeting, which we held earlier this month-in Houston, Texas. When we've discussed how a key element of our culture is the quality of people who work for United Reynolds. And this was on full display in Houston as over 2,600 team members came together to focus and engage on being the partners of choice for our customers through our differentiated value proposition.

Finally, I'd like to reiterate what I said two weeks ago when we announced our intent to acquire H&E. We're very excited to combine two complementary businesses. The transaction checks all three boxes we require when evaluating M&A, strategic, financial and cultural. Growing the core is a key component of our strategy, and I'm really thrilled to have the opportunity to add high-quality capacity, meaning people, fleet and real-estate to the United Reynolds team. This will allow us to better serve customer demand over the long-term.

It will also accelerate our growth, all while generating compelling returns for our shareholders. It's really a win-win outcome. And things remain on-track for our first-quarter close and there are no further updates to provide you today. In closing and building upon what I just discussed with our latest acquisition announcement, we remain focused on being the best rental company in the industry. Our unique value offering, industry-leading technology and our go-to-market approach, combined with our capital discipline give me confidence that we're well-positioned for both customers and shareholders for the long-term. We continue to progress towards our 2028 aspirational financial goals, which we laid out in May of '23 and look-forward to delivering on these results as we continue to execute our strategy.

With that, I'll hand the call over to Ted and then we'll take your questions. Ted, over to you.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. As Matt just shared, we had a strong finish to the year, setting both 4th-quarter and full-year records for total revenue, rental revenue, EBITDA and EPS, which supported the attractive returns and significant free-cash flow we also generated in 2024. So with that said, let's jump into the numbers. 4th-quarter rental revenue was a record at $3.42 billion. That's a year-on-year increase of $303 million or 9.7%, supported again by growth from large projects and key verticals.

Within rental revenue, OER increased by $177 million or 6.9%. Breaking this down, growth in our average fleet size contributed 4.1% to OER, while fleet productivity added another 4.3%, partially offset by assumed fleet inflation of 1.5%. Also within rental, ancillary and re-rent grew by 22% and 30% respectively, adding a combined $126 million to revenue, driven primarily by strong growth in specialty and hurricane-related work-in the quarter.

Turning to our used results, as Matt mentioned, we took advantage of a strong market to sell a record amount of fleet in the 4th-quarter, generating proceeds of $452 million at an adjusted margin of 48.9% and a recovery rate of 53% on assets that were almost eight years-old on average. Moving to EBITDA, as I mentioned, adjusted EBITDA was a 4th-quarter record at $1.9 billion, translating to an increase of $91 million or 5%. Within this, rental gross profit increased 7%, contributing an additional $136 million year-on-year. This was partially offset by used where the ongoing normalization of the market drove a 9% decline in used gross profit dollars, translating to a $21 million headwind to adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. SG&A increased by $36 billion year-over-year, which was in-line with revenue growth, so good efficiency there. And finally, the EBITDA contribution from other non-rental lines of businesses increased $12 million driven largely by strong new equipment sales.

Looking at profitability, our 4th-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 46.4%, implying 210 basis-points of compression. I'm sure we'll dig into this during Q&A, so I thought it might be helpful to frame some of the key factors here. The combination of used and stronger-than-expected new equipment sales were together about 80 basis-points of year-on-year headwind. Said another way, excluding these two factors, our adjusted EBITDA margin would have been down about 130 basis-points with flow-through a little better than 33%.

Closer to the core, and as you just heard me highlight, we had higher-growth in ancillary and re-rent revenue that, as you know, come with lower margins. If we also adjust for these, our EBITDA margin would have been down about 60 basis-points with implied flow-through of roughly 40%. While this is modestly below our long-term goal, it reflects our continued investment in key aspects of our strategy, including specialty, technology and capacity to support the long-term growth of our business during what we view as a slower phase of the cycle. And lastly, our adjusted earnings per share was a 4th-quarter record at $11.59. Shifting to capex, 4th-quarter gross rental capex was $469 million.

Moving to returns and free-cash flow. Our return on invested capital of 13% remained well-above our weighted-average cost-of-capital, while full-year free-cash flow totaled a robust $2.06 billion. Our balance sheet remains very strong with net leverage of 1.8 times at the end of December and total liquidity of over $2.8 billion. I'll note, this was after returning a record of over $1.9 billion to shareholders in 2024, including $434 million via dividend and $1.5 billion through repurchases that reduced our share count by over 2.1 million shares.

So to wrap-up both the quarter and the full-year, we were very pleased with the results our team achieved in 2024. Now let's look-forward and talk about our 2025 guidance, which I'll remind you is standalone, meaning it does not include any contribution from H&E. As you've seen from the press release, we anticipate another record year. Total revenue is expected in the range of $15.6 billion to $16.1 billion, implying full-year growth of 3.3% at midpoint.

Within total revenue, I'll note that our used sales guidance is implied roughly $1.45 billion or a mid-single-digit year-on-year decline on a percentage basis. This in-turn implies a little faster growth within our core rental revenue, Call-IT mid-single digit on a percentage basis. Within used, I'll add that we expect to sell around $2.8 billion of OEC translating to a recovery rate in the low-50s versus the mid 50s in 2024, but in-line with pre-pandemic norms. Our adjusted EBITDA range is $7.2 billion to $7.45 billion.

At the midpoint, excluding the impact of used, this implies flow-through in the 40s and flattish adjusted EBITDA margins versus as-reported flow-through of around 30% and approximately 50 basis-points of margin compression at the midpoint of guidance. On the fleet side, our gross capex guidance is $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion with net capex of $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion. Within this, we peg our 2025 maintenance capex at around $3.3 billion, implying growth CapEx of roughly $500 million at midpoint. And finally, we are guiding to another year of strong free-cash flow-in the range of $2 billion to $2.2 billion.

Turning to capital allocation, one of the benefits of our balance sheet strategy and free-cash generation are the flexibility they provide to invest in growth opportunities when they arise. As you know, we intend to capitalize on this through the pending acquisition of H&E, where we will invest almost $5 billion at targeted returns well-above our cost-of-capital.

As previously shared, we are pausing our buyback program ahead of H&E and we intend to utilize our free-cash flow-in 2025 to reduce our leverage from roughly 2.3 times on a pro-forma basis to a goal of around two times within 12 months of close. Finally, consistent with our strategy to return excess capital to our shareholders, I am very pleased to reiterate that we are increasing our quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.79 per share, translating to an annualized dividend of $7.16.

So with that, let me turn the call over to the operator for Q&A. Operator, please open the line.

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Operator

The floor is now open for your questions if you if you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you find your question has been answered, you may remove yourself by pressing star 2. Once again, if you would like to ask a question at this time, please press star one. Our first question will come from Steven Fisher with UBS. Please go-ahead. Your line is open.

Steven M. Fisher
Analyst at UBS Investment Research

Thank you and congratulations on a nice year. Maybe you can just touch upon the bigger than unused -- or bigger than usual ancillary and re-rent. What's the main activity driving that? Was that sort of more shifting of equipment around that you got fees on? And maybe what's the next -- the expectation for the next few quarters on that if you could even forecast it? And I suppose the bigger-picture question here is what on the margin side, what would you have to see in order to get flow-through back into the kind of 50% plus range?

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Sure. I'll start, Steve, and then Matt can jump-in. So on ancillary and re-rent, I think there are a couple of things. Certainly, the storm-related opportunities were a big part of both, probably more so in rent than ancillary, although there was definitely a benefit in ancillary. And then within ancillary, the other thing we've talked about all year is some of the benefits we've had in specialty. So in terms of setting things up, breaking them down and those kinds of services that relate to some of the new businesses we're in, those obviously have seen kind of sharp growth in '24 and that's contributed to that outperformance versus, Call-IT, OER. So does that help on the first question?

Steven M. Fisher
Analyst at UBS Investment Research

Yes.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

On the second question, I think there are a couple of things. I mean, certainly, relative growth rates matter. I think I made the comment just a couple of minutes ago that we think we're in the slower-growth phase of the cycle. And the reason that's important is it drives relative fixed-cost absorption. So as we get through '25 and we do expect to accelerate thereafter, that obviously drives good absorption that helps drive better flow-through.

At the same time, in this environment, we've talked about making very intentional investments in things like cold-starts and technology that have been marginal drags. We think those have been excellent investments with great ROI. That's why we've called them out and been pretty clear that we don't want to forego those opportunities just for the sake of an arbitrary flow-through gold.

So Matt, anything you'd add there?

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

No, I just -- we still always drive towards holding strong margins and Ted could take you through it. But within -- within this guide, right, ex-use sales, we expect to have margins, right, similar to year-over-year comps.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. And that's a good point. Just I'm not sure you asked it specifically, but if you -- in my comments, I made the point that if you back-out used flow-through would be in the mid-40s and we'd have flat margins, which we view as very good performance in this environment. I'll remind people, as much as inflation has subsided, it's certainly not going backwards. So we still have a decent amount of inflation we're absorbing. So to deliver these kinds of results does take hard work.

Steven M. Fisher
Analyst at UBS Investment Research

Great. That's helpful. And then just maybe on the pipeline of large projects. I'm curious how that looks today relative to a year-ago? What do you see as the differences in the large project landscape this year versus last year.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah, I'd Call-IT very similar with the addition of that we're carrying in-demand from projects that are ongoing. So when -- when you add that to some of the newer projects that are planned to come out-of-the ground, we feel-good about this segment and certainly feel-good about our alignment to serving that part of the business. So I would Call-IT overall, really the whole demand environment very similar to what we experienced in '24 and our guide, right? So we feel-good about the year going-forward.

Steven M. Fisher
Analyst at UBS Investment Research

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Blake Greenhol with Bank of America. Please go-ahead. Your line is open.

Blake Greenhalgh
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yeah. First one would be just cadence of growth in '25. Are you guys baking anything that's more second-half weighted?

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

So we won't get into quarterly guidance, but if you just think about capex as a starting point, right? We expect to spend CapEx on a similar cadence, more historically normal cadence that we did in '24. From there, there's nothing that I would call-out, certainly not back-weighted. We think it will flow with normal seasonality of our business. And more importantly, our customers' demand, right?

Blake Greenhalgh
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Great. And then on power, there's been a lot of discussion this week about renewables, grid data centers. Can you remind us how big that business is for you guys and anything you're hearing for '25 that you want to talk about?

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. So in its entirety, power is, Call-IT, about 10% of our total revenue. Within that, solar and wind are a relatively small fraction. So those -- those are not markets that move the needle terribly in our power business. And so hopefully, that helps give you some sense.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah, regardless of the political environment and all the all the pontificating or what's going to happen, there's a need for that grid to continue to be upgraded. There was long before chips and data centers and there's going to be going-forward with or without the same level of chips and data centers. We're not concerned about this. This is a segment we focused on and we feel really good about.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go-ahead.

Clay Nelson
Analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Co.

Hi, this is Clay on for Jerry. First question here, what was the specialty organic growth in the quarter? And if you could talk the color on the dispersion between the individual business lines within Specialty, that'd be great. Thanks.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

We don't really get into the individual business lines too much. I'll say specialty, as you saw showed great growth of 30%. But as I said in my opening remarks, even, 18% that would be what we call organic growth. Admittedly, there are some cold-starts in there. So that's inclusive of that. But really strong growth that we feel-good about. And this has been going on for quite a few years, just double-digit growth in specialty. And as we add new products as we have in the last couple of years through acquisitions, getting further dispersion of that footprint is another big driver of growth. And we think that will continue on and we'll probably do another 50-plus cold-starts in 2025 to add to that opportunity.

Clay Nelson
Analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Co.

Yeah, great. Super helpful. And then I guess, yeah, just expanding on the options for 2025 not wanting to speak directly to the individual product lines, but I'm just curious if there's which ones are performing stronger relative to that average.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Well, I wouldn't say performing stronger, they are all growing strong. I would say that you can think about where the growth is more pronounced, specifically in the Cold Starts is the products that we've added over the last couple of years. So think about the General Finance acquisition and specifically here in the US with PacPan, we continue to exceed those goals that we had to double that business in five years. And ColdStarts will be a part of that as well continuing to expand their footprint.

With Yak, our most recent new product-line, they're ahead of schedule on our goal is to double their business in five years. So they're really doing well. And that's been a lot of organic growth. We haven't even broadly gotten to growing the footprint. So that's future opportunity that we're going to do there. And our ROS business, right, our reliable Onsite business continues to grow organically and through cold-starts. So those are the three I'd point out. But with all that being said, one of our most mature ones is power and they're growing tremendously by adding new products and just continuing to grow their footprint. So it's pretty much across-the-board, Clay.

Clay Nelson
Analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Co.

Thanks. I really appreciate the color.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

No. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Tim Thine with Raymond James. Please go-ahead.

Timothy Thein
Analyst at Raymond James

Good morning, Matt. Maybe just on -- starting on fleet productivity, the target that you outlined in terms of the ability to outrun inflation of 1.5% but still believe in that in terms of realistic target for '25? And then maybe as part of that, is there an area where maybe that there's a -- I don't know, better opportunity in terms of whether it's time or rate and maybe you could just speak to that in terms of how you're thinking about just the broader fleet productivity setup for '25.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. So we feel really good about the performance of the team. And as you know, we won't do it quantitatively, but qualitatively, we talked about back this time last year. If we were able to repeat 2023 time utilization, we'd feel really good and we were able to do that. And so the team executed well and that's embedded in our expectations for 2025 and in this guidance. And then from there, you look at the other two variables, we still believe this is a constructive rate environment really at a necessity. When you think about the amount of fleet inflation that we've all absorbed -- the whole industry has absorbed over the last couple of years, the industry needs to get price to continue to eat into that. So I think you've seen that and I think that will continue on.

And then the variable is mix, which is really an output depending on, right, the amount of products that grow faster, what we do with different business lines and there's a bunch of things in there. You guys have gone over them before, but that will be the variable. And we do believe it will be a positive, meaning we will be able to exceed that inflation. In its simplest form, fleet productivity is, can you grow your rent revenue faster than you can grow your fleet growth and that's embedded in our guidance that we will do that again this year.

Timothy Thein
Analyst at Raymond James

Got it. Okay. And then just with the impact of M&A, obviously, you know, as the company has grown-up a couple of hundred million isn't what it used to be United. But is there a way, Ted, just to think about that in terms of the contributions for -- as to what we can expect from the deals done in the back-half of the year, presumably that's driving some benefit. Any way to help us in terms of what that may translate from a revenue perspective in '25 as you annualize that?

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. So we don't get too specific breaking out obviously the smaller deals, but you would have seen there was something on the order of $300 million of deals we did. Most hit late in the quarter, so there really wasn't much benefit in the fourth. In terms of rolling forward, you know, it was a combination of Gen Rent and specialty. So you can think about what multiple you'd want to apply to EBITDA and you figure out what kind of margin that would imply. It's not a huge part of the growth. It will contribute. These are nice deals, we're excited about them, but it's not going to be very impactful in the scheme of our guidance.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

More importantly, it's all embedded within our guidance. So, yeah.

Timothy Thein
Analyst at Raymond James

Yeah. Okay. All right. Thanks for the time.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Thanks

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Kyle Mingus with Citigroup. Please go-ahead.

Unidentified Participant
at United Rentals

Hi, good morning. This is Randy on for Kyle. Looking at the guide with gross capex -- gross capex up a little in 2025, could you give some color on what areas you're growing OEC during the year and any areas you plan to pull-back a little bit?

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. So we're not really expecting to pull-back on any, Randy. As we told you, we had really strong utilization of our fleet and we think the demand environment is going to remain similar. So with no reason to pull-back on anything, you could imagine when you think about our growth capex, we talked about specialty growth and specifically the cold-starts, they'll get an overweighted amount of the growth capex, which just to take you through that math, since we haven't talked about it yet, we plan to sell about $2.8 billion worth of OEC this year. The replacement on that. If you think about the stuff that we bought eight years ago is about 20% more now will be about $3.3 billion. That leaves at the midpoint about $500 million of growth capex. And you could imagine, know, as we think about it more than its fair share of that will go to support our specialty growth.

Unidentified Participant
at United Rentals

Got it. And then another quick one. Can you just give some color on what kind of changes you've seen in customer behavior and sentiment following the election and then maybe more recently on some of Trump's executive orders.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

So we'll take the first part, Ted could take the second. We could we had strong customer sentiment and more importantly, our field team has been feeling good about the year all throughout '24. That's why we came out with the guide we did, even though maybe there were winds blowing the other way from some folks. We see the same thing coming into this year. So our customers feel-good about it. Our leadership team feels good about it and we're really not going to overreact to the new cycle of the day. I think having that extra touches into the customer really gives us confidence to -- in our guide and what our plans are.

And Ted, you could touch on the other part, if you'd like.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. In terms of any impact of executive orders, I mean, aside from people may have whiplash, I don't think there's been too much. I do think at the end-of-the day, you look at our customers, you look at their sentiment, I would say it's improved since the election. And I think that's people's perception that you've got a government that's going to be pro-growth wanting to invest in America. They've been pretty clear about that. Certainly, our customers are well-positioned to support that growth and we're well-positioned to support them in that endeavor. So whether it's areas of infrastructure, onshoring, certainly power, energy, obviously, Stargate was a big announcement. There's a lot of different things that will continue and/or be incremental that we think are going to be exciting opportunities in '25 and beyond.

So Matt, I don't know if you share it.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

No, I covered it well.

Unidentified Participant
at United Rentals

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you, guys.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

You got it ready.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go-ahead.

Unidentified Participant
at United Rentals

Hi. Hi, thanks. This is Brendan on for Angel. In your press release, just diving more into that customer optimism. So you noted that in your press release, we've talked about it here today on the call. Just curious how much of that's actually translating to greater activity today? And then in any areas where it hasn't resulted in an uptick in activity yet, can you describe maybe what customers are waiting for, whether it's greater certainty around interest rates, policy, labor availability or just anything else that you would like to call-out, please?

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. I'll do my best there. But to be clear, it's a sentiment based measurement, right? So it's not measuring kind of what they're doing today. What it asks them is on a forward 12-month basis, what are your expectations for your own growth? And from that standpoint, you've got an improvement in net responses, right? It's a diffusion-based index. So it's certainly something that would support the guidance we've introduced. It's hard to say too much more because we don't get granular beyond that in that kind of survey.

But I guess the other thing is people feel-good about, I think just the broader environment. I mean, you're beyond the election. I think I think people are expecting more accommodative monetary policy out-of-the Fed, that will be good for the economy. A lot of the things that people have been positive on remain on-track. And so it's that -- I guess it's the culmination of all those things coming together that drive the economy, but certainly feels like things are heading in a positive direction.

Timothy Thein
Analyst at Raymond James

Okay. Thank you. I guess in dovetailing on that, so you noticed that rather noted that you have a similar pipeline for the new large projects. What does your guidance contemplate for the small kind of local markets that have been more interest-rate challenged?

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Well, I would say generally, right, speaking generally similar. Some markets have more growth opportunities than others, no different than in '24, whereas the previous years we had talked so much about broad-based. We're really selecting who we wanted to send the fleet to, not who didn't need it. So this -- the great thing about our model and really the rental model overall is the fungibility of these assets to move them not just from vertical but from geography. And that's what we're doing. And I think we do it pretty effectively, which is why we were able to keep those high levels of time utilization over the past two years, and we expect to do the same this year.

Timothy Thein
Analyst at Raymond James

Great. Thank you.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Ken Newman with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go-ahead.

Kenneth Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Good morning, guys.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Hey, Ken.

Kenneth Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, good morning. I know you guys don't want to talk too deep on the segments in particular, but 2024 was a bit of a softer rental revenue growth year for GenRent. I'm curious the guide assumes a similar growth profile in '25 and I guess, additionally on-top of that, if there's any way to quantify what do you think the impacts from mix are that's implied in the margin guide?

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

So when we think about Gen Rent for Specialty growth, I mean, you guys have seen the numbers and we talked about '25 being similar. So yeah, at the outset, you could assume similar. The great news is we have flexibility within -- within our, let's Call-IT 3.8 at the midpoint within that capex, not just the $500 million of growth, but even the rest of it, the 3.3 million modeled replacement. So we can move the appropriate assets to the appropriate markets to feed whatever growth there is. And that's really about all the color I can give you other than that we will continue to feed the specialty footprint growth and cold start growth and really their double-digit growth they've had for 10 years plus.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Take on the second part of your question, Ken, I think from a mix standpoint, to Matt's point, '25 is likely to look similar to '24. So I don't think we're looking for an appreciable shift in mix. If that helps answer the question.

Kenneth Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yeah, that's very helpful. And then maybe just tailing off the prior question here right before me. Is there a way to talk about the magnitude of demand between the national and the local accounts and particularly as I think about just the rate differential between those two? Obviously, I know you don't want to talk about fees, but they've had a little bit more challenges on the rate side. Curious if you're kind of seeing a similar dynamic.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. As you know, we don't get into the specific components of rate time and mix. But we've had -- we've driven positive fleet productivity and that's really why we put them all together because it shows up in different ways with different products and with different customers. We've talked about, you know, do national accounts have -- do they leverage your spend? Of course they do. But the truth is everybody, it's a competitive market out there and we participate actively in it and appropriately for each level. So there's nothing I'd call-out specifically to any customer segment. It's just not something that's as differentiated as many of what people think about on the outside.

Kenneth Newman
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Understood. Very helpful guys. Thanks.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Scott Sneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please go-ahead.

Scott Schneeberger
Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Thanks very much. Hey, guys. On infrastructure Bill and those funds flowing, we talked high-level about large projects and I think that would be in both, but more large. What are you seeing there? Are you seeing those funds flow? It sounds like you're expecting the same in '25 as you were in '24, but want to carve-out that piece specifically out of away from mega projects, away from small local projects. Thanks.

William Grace
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at United Rentals

Yeah, Scott, I'll take a crack at that. Yeah, certainly, we continue to see nice growth in infrastructure in terms of figuring out where the funding is coming from, that's a much more difficult process. I think if you look at some of the information that had been released right ahead of the change of administration, I think there were still something like $300 billion from IIJA that had yet to be allocated. So there's 200 that has been allocated. I think it's a fraction of that that's actually been spent. So we continue to feel really good about the opportunity that's underpinned by a lot of that spending that God knows the country needs the investment and it's certainly had bipartisan support. So our expectation that will continue to be a good area for us.

Scott Schneeberger
Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Thanks. Appreciate that. And just to the extent you can answer, what -- I assume you just made a large acquisition, there's going to be integration time on that. Should we not -- and you said what you want to do with leverage and everything and pause the stock buybacks, could we assume that there won't be any more sizable activity prior to the end-of-the year? And just maybe some commentary on what the pipeline look like for M&A. Obviously, you went with H&E, but with -- do you have a very -- still a very large and existing pipeline and any additional thoughts on that? Thanks.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah. I mean we have a very strong team that's constantly working that pipeline. And I would say it's been consistently strong, right, for a couple of years now. And as you see, we only execute on a few of them. You could imagine this is a pretty big deal. We'll have a lot to absorb here and that will be our focus. And as Ted mentioned, we're going to focus on getting that leverage back to the midpoint.

So that will be the priority. If a nice deal tuck-in comes in, that's with a new product-line, then we'll have to look at that and see how that fits into the overall strategy and would we want to do that. We'll always work the pipeline and then we'll make the appropriate decision that what makes sense for our business at that given time. And there certainly is a period here where we're going to absorb. We're going to be focused on absorbing this large acquisition.

Scott Schneeberger
Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Ed.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, it appears we have no further questions in queue. I will now turn the call-back to Matt Flannery for any additional or closing remarks.

Matthew J. Flannery
President and Chief Executive Officer at United Rentals

Well, thank you, operator, and everyone on the call. We appreciate your time. Glad you can join us today. Our Q4 investor deck has the latest and greatest updates. And as always, Elizabeth is available to answer your questions. So until we talk again in April, stay safe. Operator, you can now end the call.

Operator

This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

Corporate Executives
Analysts
  • Steven M. Fisher, UBS Investment Research
  • Blake Greenhalgh, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Clay Nelson, Goldman, Sachs & Co.
  • Unidentified Participant,
  • Kenneth Newman, KeyBanc Capital Markets
  • Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer & Co.

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