Vornado Realty Trust Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Vornado Realty Trust 4th-Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Betsy, and I will be your operator for today's call. This call is being recorded for replay purposes.

All lines are in a listen-only mode. Our speakers will address your questions at the end-of-the presentation during the question-and-answer session. At that time, please press star then 1 on your touchtone phone.

I will now turn the call over to Mr Steve Borenstein, Executive Vice-President and Corporate Counsel. Please go-ahead.

Steven Borenstein
Senior Vice President, Corporation Counsel & Secretary at Vornado Realty Trust

Welcome to Vernado Realty Trust's 4th-quarter earnings call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our 4th-quarter earnings release and filed our annual report on Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents as well as our supplemental financial information packages are available on our website, www.vno.com under the Investor Relations section.

In these documents and during today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly-comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release, Form 10-K and financial supplements.

Please be aware that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended, 31, 2024 for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. The call may include time-sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date. The company does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements.

On the call today from management for our opening comments are Stephen Roth, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Franco, President and Chief Financial Officer. Our senior team is also present and available for quite stream.

I will now turn the call over to Steven Roth.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. That tornado business is good, really good and getting better. New York is our home and everyone agrees that the New York real-estate markets are head and shoulders strongest in the nation. As I have said before, while New York has over 400 million square feet of office, we really only compete in a narrower market of about 188 million square feet of the better space. Availability in the better space market is 10.7% versus 20.1% in the not better space market. And that 10.7% availability is evaporating very quickly. Park revenue is already under 7%. Add to that, that the cost of a new-build tower in New York has just about doubled over the last six to seven years. And with the cost of debt at, say, 6%, new supply is frozen. There hasn't been a major new building start in five years and once started, delivery takes five to seven years. Taken together, this all creates a landlords market. We expect rents to rise aggressively, one might even say rents to spike. And in fact, rents have already started to rise. So all good, very good.

Why New York? New York is America's world city. New York's human and physical capital is irreplaceable. We have the largest, most educated workforce, the best transit system for commuting from our vast suburbs. You may read this as a plug for the Penn District and I guess it is. The largest number of corporate headquarters, the best restaurants and museums and eight professional sports teams, even though the damn Yankees can't seem to beat the Brooklyn.

I would like to focus on a few points and a handful of our recent accomplishments. Work-from-home was a scare, but as we predicted, it would not last and is not last. Most have left their kitchen tables and are back at the office. Our stock price increased 49% in 2024 after increasing 35% in 2023. In 2024, we leased 3.4 million square feet overall, of which 2.65 million square feet was New York office at market-leading $104 starting rents with mark-to-markets of 2.5% cash and 10.9% GAAP for the second year in a row, we completed the most premium $100 plus deals in New York and 18 transactions for 1.36 million square feet. And we completed three of the top-10 largest office deals in New York.

We completed 285,000 square feet of deals at PEN1 at $98 starting rates, exceeding our underwriting. We completed 25 retail leases totaling 187,000 square feet, highlighted by Manhattan's first-in the Penn District. We completed the sale at 665th Avenue at a record price of $20,000 per square-foot. Last month, we repaid at maturity out of 3.5%, $450 million unsecured bonds out of cash on-balance sheet and $108 million off our credit line. Our entire portfolio was 100% lead certified and we are the first-in the nation to achieve this milestone.

We are on the two-yard line with a handful of important deals. We finally complete -- we will finally complete the master lease to NYU at our 1.1 million-square-foot 770 Broadway by the end-of-the month. This deal will relieve our balance sheet of $700 million of debt on this asset and eliminate 500,000 square feet of vacancy. By the way, this large and impressive building on the edge of the NYU campus will be their science center. I have seen the plans, it will be a world-class education facility, which will make NYU an even greater or least higher-education institution. That's great for NYU and that's great for New York.

We will shortly refinance 1535 Broadway, which will allow us to redeem for cash over $400 million of our retail JV preferreds. And we have several asset sales in the works. Taken together, these transactions will shortly generate an incremental additional $1 billion of new cash. At PEN2, we are only weeks away from signing a 300,000 square-foot lease. PEN2 is being very well-received by tenants and brokers with commentary that it is the best redevelopment anyone has ever seen and together with PEN1 has by far the biggest and best amenity package anywhere. We are also engaged in multiple tenant proposals at Pend 2, including negotiating an LOI for a major headquarters lease. I'm predicting that will likely be 80% leased by year-end. We are achieving rents here above our underwriting and accordingly, we have increased the incremental yield on Page 16 of our supplement to 10.2%.

We will deliver -- we will deliver Peer 94 on Manhattan's West Side by year-end 2025, the first-ever purpose-built film and television South stages in Manhattan. Now for those interested in Alexander, our 32.4% owned affiliate. In the second-quarter of 2024, we early renewed the 947,000 square-foot Bloomberg office lease at 731 Bexington Avenue, whose expiry is now pushed out to 2040. At Regal Park in Queens, we are moving Burlington and Marshalls, the last remaining tenants at Regal One to our adjacent Rego 2 shopping center, thereby filling up Rego 2 and creating a fully vacant blank canvas at Rego 1 for either sale or development. Obviously, we believe this unique five-acre parcel of land wonderfully located at the intersection of Queens Boulevard and Junction Boulevard and bordering the Long Island Expressway is worth more as land than the 66-year-old building. I believe Alexander's stock substantially undervalues its assets and we will have to do something about that.

350 Park Avenue development is on-schedule. The new building is now fully designed and it will stand-out as being truly, truly best-in-class. We are in the formal approval process under the Midtown East zoning and Citado, our major tenant and Ken Griffin, our partner, will shortly begin moving out of 350 Park into swing space, so the demolition can begin early next year.

I end by noting how proud our Vernado teams all are of our accomplishments to date in the Penn District. Take a look at Meta at Farley, PEN1, PEN2, the Moynihan Train Hall, the Long Island Railroad Concourse, the 33rd Street Plaza and even Penn 11 and how excited we all are about the future of our city within a city. Next up is the hotel Penn site, now down to the ground and ready to go. Our pen district is clearly a site to be seen. If you haven't already seen it, please call me to arrange a tour.

Now to Michael.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Comparable FFO was $2.26 per share for the year. As previously forecasted, this was down from 2023 due to lower NOI from the known move-outs that we discussed throughout the year and higher net interest expense. But overall, our results were better than we had anticipated earlier in the year. This is primarily due to the acceleration of our leasing activity at 330 West 34th Street, where we recognized lease termination income in connection with executing a 304,000 square-foot lease with WeWork on behalf of Amazon. Also, net interest expense ended-up being lower versus our original projection due to short-term rates coming down. By the way, we already have almost 80% of the vacant space from the known move-out spoken for.

4th-quarter comparable FFO was $0.61 per share compared to $0.63 per share for 4th-quarter 2023. This decrease was primarily attributable to higher net interest expense and lower NOI from the known move-outs, partially offset by the lease termination income at 3:30 West 34th Street and lower G&A expense. We have provided a quarter-over-quarter bridge on Page 3 of our earnings release and on Page 6 of our financial supplement.

Now turning to 2025. Though our practice is not to give earnings guidance, we can tell you that similar to current consensus, we expect 2025 to be slightly lower than 2024. This is partly due to the previously mentioned lease termination income at 330 West 34th Street that positively impacted 2024 comparable FFO. And as indicated during last quarter's call, the GAAP earnings impact from the backfilling of vacancies and the lease-up of PEN1 and PEN2 won't occur until towards the end of 2026 with full positive impact in 2027, resulting in significant earnings growth by 2027.

A few words on occupancy. Our year-ended office occupancy was 88.8%, up from 87.5% last quarter. With the pending full building master lease at 770 Broadway, our office occupancy increases by 330 basis-points to 92.1%. As we previously mentioned, our first-quarter 2025 occupancy will decrease due to PEM 2 being placed into service. We anticipate -- anticipate that this decrease will be temporary as PEM 2 occupancy stabilizes over the next year and we get to the low-90s.

Our New York leasing pipeline remains robust as we enter 2025. We have significant activity across our portfolio with 750,000 square feet-in negotiation on-top of the 1 million-square-foot master lease being finalized with NYU at 770 Broadway. Additionally, we have another 1.3 million square feet-in various stages of proposals and negotiations.

Turning to the capital markets, both the financing and investment sales markets are showing encouraging signs over the past few months. The CMBS market is wide-open for large high-quality assets such as ours with appropriate metrics and loan structures. AAA and overall spreads for recent financings on the spiral and 299 Park Avenue have shown significant tightening over the past six months-to levels consistent with pre-COVID. While we expect banks will largely remain the sidelines this year, some banks are beginning to look at financing smaller office deals, a hopeful first sign and a trend we expect to continue.

The one negative is that short-term rates after coming down 100 basis-points last year look likely to remain around current levels for the foreseeable future, keeping borrowing costs high. The investment sales market continues to pick-up also with several high-quality office assets trading recently, including interest in 320 Park Avenue by Munich Re and 1345 Avenue in Americas by Blackstone.

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

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Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star then 2. If you are using a speaker phone, you may need to pick-up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. Each caller will be allowed to ask a question and a follow-up question before we move on to the next caller. Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Steve, thanks for those great comments about the leasing activity. It sounds like you're close to punching a few things into the into the end zone here. But maybe you or Glenn could just provide a little bit more commentary around some of the timing for PEN2, I guess, in particular and just maybe the competitive dynamic that you're seeing for that space and the confidence level you had to raise the yield on PEN2?

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

Hi, Steve, it's Glenn, how you doing? So PEN2 is more than off and running. Every large pen in the market has it in their top three list of what to see. There are only five buildings in Manhattan with blocks available of 500,000 feet or more. We have the best block. So as you heard in the remarks, we have a lease-out with one tenant that's going to get done in short order for 330,000 feet. We have an LOI in very serious ages for another very large headquarter tenant. And behind all that, we have tenants battling for space from anywhere between 60,000 and 200,000 feet. So PEN2 is now the bull's-eye for many people searches and we're in complete 5th year at our leasing.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay. And just any comments on just kind of the rents, I guess that you're sort of seeing. I guess that speaks to kind of the yield being pushed up at that by 70 basis-points.

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

We've raised our rents across the entire building. From bottom to the top.

Operator

John Kim from BMO is on the line with a question. Please proceed.

John Kim
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

I wanted to follow-up on Steve's commentary on $1 billion of new cash proceeds you expect. You have $700 million debt pay-down at 770 Broadway, $400 million freed up at 1535 Broadway as well. And then on-top of that new dispositions. So I was wondering how much in new dispositions that you anticipate?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Well, the math of what you just said, the $700 million is going to pay-off debt. There's a little more -- a couple of hundred million dollars more than that coming in on that building. It's $400 odd million coming in from refinancing 15 35 and there'll be enough in short-term dispositions to round it up to $1 billion.

John Kim
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

And will those be focused on retail or non-core office or any color you could provide on what you're going to look in the cost?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I'm not going to get specific about that, John.

Operator

Jeff Spector with Bank of America is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Jeffrey Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Great. Thank you and congratulations on a great 2024. Can you tie Steve's comments on the spike?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I can't let that go by without saying thank you.

Jeffrey Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay. Absolutely. If you could please tie, Steve, your opening comments on the expectation for a rent spike to Michael's comment on growth in '27. I think we all understand '25, can you tie-in '26 at all to any of those comments, please? Thank you.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Oh god, I don't know. We've been through this -- these kinds of cycles four or five times. What I said, which I thought I was pretty clear was that there's lots of space in New York but we compete in a much smaller subset of the better space, which is somewhat below 200 million square feet. So that's the first point. The second point is that the current availability in that subset of space is 10% and going down very quickly because there's a shortage of space. We haven't had a recession and all of our clients are expanding and aggressively expanding in New York. The businesses are good. The stock market is good. So business is -- business is healthy and robust and demand for space in New York is actually pretty terrific. So with availability limited and shrinking and no new supply, that's critical. No new supply coming on the market for lots of different reasons. Construction costs are hysterically high. Interest rates have not fallen -- have not fallen actually. Long-term rates have not fallen at all. And so the ability to create new supply is very, very limited and I use the word frozen. Take all that together, that's a landlord's market. We expect rents to go up significantly next year and dare I use the word spike.

Now with respect to Michael's comments about 2026, you want to -- if you want to...

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Jeff, what I would say is that as we look at our portfolio, right, we've got a number of drivers. We have filling up the empties. And we have a -- and so we know that significant part of that is going to come from PEN2 and to some extent, extent PENN 1. We have the -- as leases roll-over, we're now on the other side of that as we move into a landlords market where we have positive mark-to-market. So it takes some time for that to flow-through, '26 will be an improvement, but we think very significant improvement comes in 2027.

Jeffrey Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I'll give you something else to think about, okay? Now in PEN1 and PEN2, we are leasing now in the $100 range, maybe just a pinch higher. There's nothing that said, but if you go to our neighbors, if you go to Manhattan West and you go to Hudson Yards, the market rents for those buildings, albeit they are newer buildings, actually the new buildings, is substantially monumentally higher than $100 a foot. As this market tightens and as the Penn district matures and gets to be accepted as the single best location in the West Side, there's nothing that says that market rents in PEN1 and PEN2 can't go from $100 a foot to $125 a foot and then maybe even substantially higher. That kind of appreciation in income will cause values to increase monumentally.

So for example, so help me on this, Tom, $25 a foot times 5 million feet is $125 million a year, okay, $125 million a year is worth the $1.5 billion to $2 billion of value attribution without any capital expense. So we are unbelievably enthusiastic about the market, about the tightening of the market and about the inventory that we own.

Jeffrey Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Very helpful. My follow-up question is on the comment that you're working with a large anchor, not looking for specifics, of course, on who, but can you just talk about the demand for anchor space? Is it a particular industry, technology, financials, is it more broad-based? And I don't know if you could tie that to the hotel pen site? Thank you.

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

Hi, Jeff, it's Glen. But generally speaking, the big demand drivers are financial, legal and tech. That's what we're seeing not just in Penn but across the entire portfolio.

Operator

Dylan is on the line from Green Street with a question. Please proceed.

Dylan Burzinski
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Steve, just wanted to go back to your comments on you guys not seeing or in your guys' opinion, the public market not seeing the value in in your comments about doing something about it. Can you kind of talk about sort of what you mean by that? Anything we can expect?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Well, thanks. If you take the assets, I would say Alexanders and you do a sum of the parts analysis, that number by any construct has to be very substantially higher than the trading price of the stock. So it's a very simple concept and it's based upon NAV. And if you just -- if you calculate the value of the asset piece by piece, it greatly exceeds the stock price. Now think about it for a second. So Rego one One, which I guess you might say is a failed shopping center. We had Ikea move-out, so it's shrinking down. So we end-up with a 66-year-old building. The capital cost of re-tenanting that building is huge and obviously not economic. So what we did very simply is we took the two remaining actually Burlington and Marshall, two great tenants. Marshall has been there for 30 years, 40 years, very long period of time anyway. So we moved them into or we're in the process of -- we have signed documents, by the way, we enterprises are moving them into Rego 2, which will fill-up Rego 2, which is a relatively new shopping center we built the better part of 10 years ago. So that makes Rego 2 a success. And it empties out 1, which is a grand five-acre piece of which will be either sold or developed. So that creates value. Now it doesn't have income today. So somebody who is looking at Alexander's from the income only approach is going to be really substantially incorrect as to what the values are, but the piece of land is in the middle of Queens at the intersection of Maine, Maine, Maine, and Maine, and we think is extraordinarily valuable. So we'll see.

Dylan Burzinski
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

I appreciate those comments. And then I guess just one more broader strategic question. I know several years ago, you guys floated the idea of doing a tracking stock and ultimately shelved it until things started to recover in the New York office market. Now that things are seemingly recovering quite significantly, I mean, is that something that's back on the table? Can you kind of talk us through where that sort of sits in the grand strategic set of things?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

So the easy answer to that is no. But I think about tracking stock at least every day. I think it continues to be a very, very, very good idea. I can honestly tell you, I can't get any support from the idea from any of you guys and even from my guys inside. But I continue to think about it every day. You never know it may come up as being a useful tool sometime in the future. But the short-term answer is no. Although I do think I do love the idea.

Dylan Burzinski
Analyst at Green Street Advisors

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Floris is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Floris Gerbrand
Analyst at Compass Point

Hey, thanks. I was just curious, your commentary on rents obviously at the Penn Plaza district being significantly higher than what you probably originally underwrote. I recall you talking about a $150 million or we -- I guess we've estimated about $150 million of NOI growth at your three pen plaza district assets, PEN1, PEN2 and Farley. As you think now on the progression of market rents, has your NOI growth expectation increased and I mean fully stabilized, this thing could generate more than $300 million of NOI.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Well, the answer to that is that obviously with the rents going up, that prediction will go up, but it will go up only marginally and I'm told by my finance people who are smarter than I am that you have to take into account that there will be capitalized interest rolling-off. That will roll-off. So I mean it's a -- it's a complicated calculation which my guys can help you with is offline. But basically what I'm looking for is as 2 leases up and as PEN1 completes its fill-up and then there is some retail space in the Farley building. As all that happens, the income from that cluster of buildings will go up the better part of $150 million. And that's incrementally going up. That doesn't count. So it will be more than that to take it all together. So I mean, I read your piece that you put out I think last week and I think it is absolutely directionally correct.

Steve by the buy as we keep developing the neighborhood, and for example, as I said in the prepared remarks, the Pen 15 site, the old hotel Pennsylvania site is next up. It's already raised and down to the ground. As we build a world-class office building, which I've said the building is frozen but we're going to attack that as if the land cost in -- at is sunk. So if we look at it as having zero land costs for the moment, we can get the new building off the ground. So anyway, if we -- as you look at this as a neighborhood, as we build-on Pen 15, a world-class office building, that will to the -- to increase the market value of the across-the-street Pen 1 and PEN2 by at least $25 or $50 a foot. So what we think as we continue to work on our neighborhood, the value-creation will be quite substantial, and I might even say enormous.

Floris Gerbrand
Analyst at Compass Point

If you start adding those pieces. The follow-up question, I guess, is on the acquisitions front, I know that it's hard to acquire assets. Maybe if you could talk a little bit about the environment and the types of transactions you're looking at and where you think you're going to source or where you're more likely to source transactions? And would you consider allocating capital to outside of Manhattan to maybe markets like San Francisco or Chicago that are further behind in the recovery phase.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

That question is right up Michael's alley.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Good morning, Floris. So I think in terms of acquisitions, you're accurate in the sense of it's been more challenging in New York and as the cycle is turning here, sellers are getting a little more optimistic. That being said, there's still a lot of maturities to work-through, and I think that's going to present opportunities in the next year or two. So yeah. But our target is, it has to be the right asset for to fit into our portfolio, right, from a quality perspective. So I think there will be some, but it's going to be fewer than more. San Francisco, we are constructive on. We believe in the market. I think we've been consistent on that. I think the signs are positive there, new leadership and City is certainly turning a corner. So the answer is, yes, we are -- we are open-minded regarding San Francisco, Chicago. I think we're content with what we have. I don't think you'll see us add anything there. The market has many more challenges and it's going to take some time for that to recover. So we're not focused on that either. And I don't say -- I don't think we'll think we'll look beyond that.

Floris Gerbrand
Analyst at Compass Point

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Michael Griffin with Citi is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Michael Griffin
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Great. Thanks. I appreciate all the color around the leasing pipeline and demand. I'm curious maybe, Steve or Glen, could you give us some insights into whether or not tenants are coming to you earlier to try to renew space just given that limited availability? And you've talked about landlord pricing power. Have you started to see concessions drop-off at all as a result of this demand you've seen?

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

Hi, it's Glenn. So in terms of the demand, we're seeing it from every angle. Multiple expansions, multiple renewal discussions for deals that are years out from expiring, and the immediate demand for space from tenants who are either new to the market or want to move immediately is more robust than I've seen in many years. As it relates to concessions, I think they're neutralized. They have not come down generally yet, but rents have gone up. And that effectively things are better. And as this market more-and-more becomes a landlords market, the concessions will come down.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Sure, if I would add-on to what Glenn said. I think there's a couple of dynamics there, right? First, Glenn talked about these expansions. We're going through our pipeline the last few days and there's a handful of tenants that we did leases with very recently that have already come back for more space. And I think that's reflective of a couple of dynamics that's occurred -- that occurred. One is, I think there was a level of conservatism on behalf of tenants as they leased space coming out of COVID because they didn't know exactly how they'd use it or how much they would need, right? And they're now all fully backed and they recognize that they need more as a result of that. Two, as both Steve and Glenn said, business is booming, right? Law firms are booming, financial services booming, tech is booming, etc. So all these businesses are growing. So when you take both those dynamics, you have a very robust market overlaid onto a very tightening level of supply of where these tenants want to be. So I think that's why Steve said what you said in terms of the expectation for rental growth over the next several years.

Michael Griffin
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thanks, Michael. Appreciate the additional commentary there. And then just maybe following back up on your comments and prepared remarks around the financing markets and capital availability. Obviously, we've seen more transactions come to-market as of recent. The CMBS market seems more open. For the mortgages that you guys have coming due this year, whether it's, 88, those properties are very well-leased. Do you have a sense or maybe give us some insight on where you'd expect the refinancing rate to be relative to the current interest-rate and any other commentary on sort of the debt capital markets would be helpful.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

So look, I think if you think about where we are today versus where we were, let's say, a year-ago, I think it's night and day and we really opened up the market on the office side with the Bloomberg financing. And since then, certainly with respect to New York City, there's been a floodgate of high-quality office has been financed. So you think about the transactions have gotten done, many of them in excess of $1 billion in a couple of cases, multi-billion. So I think that is evidence of the -- just the demand from fixed-income investors for high-quality New York City office. I think it's very encouraging and so obviously, our portfolio plays in that. So as we look out in terms of the financings that are going to -- that roll this year, look, we're coming off some low rates in a couple of cases, particularly on a fixed -- on a couple of fixed-rate deals, I think we'll see upticks in rates there. At the same time, you know something like a Union Square and the demand for high-quality retail is very strong and that may well be lower. So net-net, I think it's probably a little higher, but we're also delevering with some paydowns of the 770, etc. So I think from Bornado's perspective, I think the -- we obviously took some hits the last couple of years with interest expense going up pretty significantly. I think by and large, we're done with that in total. Could it be a little bit higher this year, maybe could be a little bit lower maybe. I think we're sort of par year-over-year. And I think generally the worst is sort of over for us.

Michael Griffin
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Great. That's it from me. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Vikram Mahotra with Mizuho is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Unidentified Participant
at Vornado Realty Trust

Good morning. Thanks. Thanks for the questions. Steve, I guess you've done a great job on the pen district on various assets you talked about sort of the, I guess the next evolution or the next jump-in your stabilized NOI. I'm wondering from an actual development or an asset standpoint, what's next in PEN? How would you sequence sort of the various other parcels or redevelopment opportunities you have?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Thanks for the question, Vick. We're studying that now. We believe that we should in the pen district have one or two buildings under-construction and rolling forward for the next 10 years, but we're not ready to announce anything yet. Obviously, the PEN15 site is sitting there probably I believe the best site in Manhattan X Park Avenue. So that obviously is the next site. We are considering all options for that site. There will clearly be an office building on the front of that site, but we're also considering apartments as well.

Unidentified Participant
at Vornado Realty Trust

Got it. And then just maybe to follow-up. You talked about the office pipeline. I'm wondering if you can give a little bit more color on sort of how Street Retail is evolving on Fifth and Madison. Any color on tenants in the market there and what pricing may be doing and how that translates into your leasing costs? Thanks.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yeah. Good morning, Vikram. So on the -- on the retail pipeline, I'd say just on the market and general market, it continues to strengthen vacancy rates, rates continue to decline and rents are, you know, certainly for the best spaces, I think returning to close to peak levels. So we signed a significant lease in Times Square last year. There's activity in that submarket. Again, we own the two best blocks and we have some active dialog going at some very strong rents and not too far off the peak there. Fifth Avenue, same dynamic in terms of -- in terms of tenants looking for space. I think we've seen certainly since COVID, the most activity of retailers cruising around looking for space. And so I think that pick-up. And again, for the right spaces, I think tenants recognize they're going to have to pay rents that aren't too far off the peak there, if not the peak. So the bottom-line is and what's driving all this is that the sales figures that the retailers are doing and the recognition that New York remains the global city in the US, maybe number-one in the world and they have to have locations here. So we're close to lease with some sort of new-to-market tenants as well as some tenants that are already here. And we continue to have good activity throughout the Penn district and we're working on some leases there as well. And so we're pretty -- we're pretty constructive on the -- on the retail market as well. We own great assets and those tend to -- those tend to be where the retailers are most focused.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I'll give you an anecdotal story. So we have an important asset on 5th Avenue. Actually, we have a lot of them. But one particular important asset on 5th Avenue, we had a major retailer come in knowing that the incumbent had in that space had an expiry in three years and no renewal option. I'm trying to actually say, I would like to sign for that space now and I'll wait for that tenant lease to expire. So that's things that happen only for extraordinary property in tight markets. So that was kind of fun. The other thing that I'll say is on 5th Avenue, tenants would prefer to buy rather than rent and so the buy prices are higher than would be reflected by the market risk. So the arbitrage there is that it's more economic to sell some of these assets than to -- than to rent some of these assets. And we're open for business.

Unidentified Participant
at Vornado Realty Trust

Thank you

Operator

Michael Lewis with Truist Securities is on the line with the question please proceed.

Michael Lewis
Analyst at Truist Securities

Thank you. So. So, Steve, you often emphasize you run this as a cash business of a focus on cash, which we agree with. The FAD of $1.75 per share in 2024 was the lowest in at least the last 25 years, probably longer. And I realize leasing up a lot of space costs money, but maybe help us understand the health of the New York office business in the context of REITs like yourself making less cash money than ever before and this 25-year trend of FAD kind of consistently going down? Down and are we at an inflection you expect that to kind of rapidly increase and do we get back to kind of pre-COVID cash-flow levels?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

A complicated question. I'm familiar with the trend. I'm familiar with the capital intensity of our business. I'm familiar with the fact that we're in the multi-tenant. We and all of our colleagues in the industry are in the multi-tenant business where the spaces turnover. I'm familiar with the cost of turning over those faces, all of which creates the trend that you mentioned. So clearly, and Glenn alluded to this, the API and the tenant inducements to turn-over a floor in a building is very sticky and we're struggling to try to get them to go down, they will only go down in a very tight market. So that's in our future, not in our past.

On the other hand, if you look at the rents, rents have gone up already to sort of alleviate that problem. So I'm expecting that the cash -- the actual cash-flow or AFFO or whatever you want to term it, we are at the bottom of that cycle and that's going to go up in a market which I think is going to get much tighter. Now that is something that I'm predicting for New York. I believe New York is unique in the nation. Other cities, as great as they might be around the country, I don't believe we're going to benefit from that trend.

Michael Lewis
Analyst at Truist Securities

Okay, great. And then my second question, I just wanted to ask about the New York office in-place rent versus market rent. So the in-place rent looks like it's right around $90 bucks a square-foot. Where do you think market rents for the operating portfolio are compared to that?

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

Hi, it's Glenn. We say this often quarter-to-quarter, it's going to ebb and flow flat, positive, et-cetera. We feel confident that our mark-to-markets will be positive. I'm not going to predict how much that means, but we like our spot in terms of our rolling expiration for the next few years. We like where we're now pegging rents. As we mentioned, we've increased rents generally across the whole portfolio. And so we feel-good about that metric over the next two, three years.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I'm not bashful, and I'll predict. So let's just go to Penn for a minute because that's easy. So I believe that the we signed a wonderful lease for 730,000 square feet-in the Farley building in the middle and the depth of COVID, I believe when that lease comes for renewal, albeit that many years from now, the market for that renewal will be very substantially higher than the in-place rate. I've already said that I believe PEN1 and PEN2, which we are very happy to get $100 or a pinch more today that in the short-term future, three, four, five years from now, the market rents for those buildings will be very, very substantially higher so that's what I think. Way we're bidding on that.

Operator

Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Hi, good morning. Good morning, Steve. And first, congrats, on the improved yields at Penn and the positive reception you guys have had from the market. So that's quite a compliment from the market for you guys there. Two questions. First...

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Alex, Alex, thank you, my friend.

Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

No, it's true. I mean, you spent time walking us through and it's evident at your ability to rethink in the campus environment. So it's good to see that the rents are moving the way you had hoped. My two questions are first on and appreciate your comments. You know, what would be -- what would -- I mean, right now, given how much of the original assets have been sold-off and I would think you could get a good price for the apartment tower and Rego II, why not just blend in Alexander's into -- into Vornado, you'd eliminate the G&A, instead of paying a dividend, that cash-flow would accrue to Vornado. You have 731, which certainly fits in your portfolio. Why not just incorporate Alexander's into Vornado? What would -- what would prevent that?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Well, nothing not tenacious. That idea has been floated for, you know, 20 odd years, and I have said we're not going to do that for 20 odd years and actually I probably will continue to say it now. The pricing of it, the melding of, it's just not something that's on the front of my mind today.

Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay. I mean it's just it you know it has cash needs and it certainly as you wound it down would seem to fit more-and-more, but I guess that's a conversation for offline.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Alex let me let me give you a fantasy okay I'm trying I'm trying to please you if we merged Alexander's into, I have no idea how we would price it and how we could get both sides to be happy, very difficult to do, okay. Alternatively, if we left Alexander's as we are going to do, that's what I'm saying, as a freestanding independent public entity and we narrowed it down to nothing but the Bloomberg Office building, which shortly will have approximately $100 million of net income. And that was the only asset in that -- in that property. And it had very low debt or maybe no debt. What would that sell for as an what would that sell for in the stock market? And I submit to you that, that would sell for it much, much higher than the current trading price of the stock. That's just a fantasy though.

Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay. The second question is, Michael, you to...

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Actually what I'm really -- what I'm really saying is from a value point-of-view, we think that we can make -- get Alexander's value to be above what we're what might be willing to pay for it and that Alexander's shareholders will -- they have rather that's what we're pursuing.

Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay. All right. Michael, you appreciate the comments on '25, you have some perspective, but, but you guys have outlined some asset sales be vacating at 350 Park and just the remnants of refinancing. In addition, you have the capitalized interest, I think, $51 million at PENN 2 that would burn-off when that -- when as those leases take effect. So as we think about the next two years, how much FFO net is coming off of Vornado relative to FFO coming on from PEN?

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yeah. I think that look, as we said, a couple of things. One is, in terms of capitalized interest, right, we've talked about that being lower this year versus last year given 2 is going to roll-off this year. And I think that's why consensus is down appropriately and that's reflected there. So $3.50 when that comes off, we don't think that has much of an impact relative to the master lease we're getting today. There'll be no debt on the asset at that point and we get capitalized interest on that. So that's not going to really have an impact on the numbers. So we've talked the last year about the success we've had backfilling 770, 1290, 280 now leasing a pen that's going to start flowing through a little bit this year, more materially next year and dramatically in 2027. And so sort of model that out as you want based on that comment, but I think that's your trajectory.

Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Okay. Thank you.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yeah.

Operator

Ronald Camden from Morgan Stanley is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Ronald Kamdem
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hey, just two quick ones from me. So one is on just on the same-store NOI for New York office ended it down 3.3 just as you're thinking about the next two to three years, just any high-level thoughts on what that same-store number could look like in this sort of strong environment?

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

You know, Ronald, I don't have those numbers in my fingertips and I don't want to give you numbers that are too much of a guesstimate so on. So let us look at that and we'll try to get a little more visibility there.

Ronald Kamdem
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Sure, thanks. Going back to the -- I just had the same sort of question on capex, maybe asking in a different way. When I think about sort of the $250 million of capex spent this year, which includes $72 million on sort of first-generation space, any sort of thoughts about what '25, '26 could look like? Are we coming down from those numbers? Are we staying in-place? Just any sort of thinking on capex as we're thinking about the model? Thanks.

Michael J. Franco
President & Chief Financial Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I mean, I think the capex, know, we raised it a little bit because and it's the best guess every year, right, in terms of timing of when you make those payments and it doesn't necessarily line-up to when you actually finalize the lease. But we know the leases that are in-process. We have an expectation of what we're going to get done beyond that. And so I think it's reflective of the pretty strong leasing environment in addition to some base building capital. So last year, I think we were dead-on our prediction. Most years were frankly not because you're taking a high-level of guess. So I think directionally, we're still in the same bucket, $250, $275 is frankly not that different, right? It's just a matter of what space you end-up leasing in a particular year and how much capital you have to spend on the portfolio beyond that. So I think that's a pretty good number directionally for this year, just given some of these big leases that are in the works on PEN and beyond. And as we get into next year, so we'll see -- we'll see what's left. But I think that number will start coming down as the portfolio fills back up.

Ronald Kamdem
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Helpful. Thanks so much.

Operator

Anthony Pallone with J.P. Morgan is on the line with a question. Please proceed.

Anthony Paolone
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Yeah, thanks. Steve, you mentioned just viewing the cost basis around the hotel pen side sunk at this point. Can you tell us just like what it costs to build something and go vertical right now then? Then and what kind of yield on that you would you would want.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

My developments my young development sauce is dollars 1900 a foot x land for a class a building I won't have any test that...

Anthony Paolone
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

In the yield?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Well if you if you put land in so you get to a number which is you know, 22,000 and I don't know, pick a number dollars 22,500 to put some number like that, I don't know. And you put a yield on it, what would you build for now and with a debt market of 6%, let's say you need to get 7% or 8% or something like that because equity is more valuable than debt. So what 7% times 2,500,

Thomas Sanelli
Executive Vice President, Finance & Chief Administrative Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

175.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Now that's a number that's net of taxes and operating costs so that the -- so the answer is that to build a new building today, the rents that you would need to get are in the high 100s. You're shaking your head while you're shaking your head. I agree, which is why it's -- you talk about being frozen, the math doesn't work, you know. And so -- but think about that for a second. So one of the reasons that I'm so enthusiastic about the rents at PEN1 and PEN2 and the rest of truly are rising from $100 a foot is because you have to -- you asked us a figure that a new-build is $200 a foot or something like that, maybe less maybe a pinch more. So the in-place buildings and the better inventory in the great locations will become much more valuable. That's the whole punchline. That's the punch line to today.

Anthony Paolone
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. I guess that's what I want to understand. So I mean, you mentioned your vantage point being that the sort of costs thus far sunk. And so I guess you're just looking at the incremental and what it could do for the whole area, not so much thinking about that $2,500 basis in a yield on that.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yeah. But the fact of the matter is that I own the land. I bought the land a long-time ago. I have no debt on the land and so given a choice between leaving the land empty or building on it, you know, we'll make -- we'll make those choices. That's what we get paid to do.

Anthony Paolone
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. Understand. And then just quick follow-up. I think you bought a non-performing B note on a Midtown deal last year. Can you give us any update on that or plans or what's happening there?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

No, sir.

Anthony Paolone
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

It's okay. Thank you.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Nick Yulico with Scotiabank is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Nicholas Yulico
Analyst at Scotiabank

Great. Thanks. In terms of the Pent project, can you just talk a little bit about whether any of the sublease space that's available on Hudson Yards is if you're actually finding that to be competitive when tenants are looking at your projects.

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

Hi, Nick, it's Glen. So the answer is yes, which if you think about it, PEN2 and PEN1 are competing with new space. That's a great thing. And as Steve said, our pricing is not near their pricing, even the sublet pricing. So you know, we feel-good about the fact that any tenant touring the West Side, whether it's the sublet availability in Hudson Yorks or Manhattan West or PEN1 or PEN2, we are squarely in that mix every day. So we like that. We feel very competitive with it, very comfortable with it.

Nicholas Yulico
Analyst at Scotiabank

Okay, thanks. And thanks, Klein. And then second question is just going back to the yield on PEN2. Can you just remind us, I think that the yield when you quote the yield does not include TIs and leasing commissions being built into the cost there. So if we assume that, I think at one point in the notes, if I saw that it was around $140 was around like a TI leasing commission cost there per-foot. I just want to see if that's still right. And if we build that in, is the yield on the project inclusive of that, closer to like 7.5%, 8%. Is that ballpark correct?

Thomas Sanelli
Executive Vice President, Finance & Chief Administrative Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yeah. I mean the answer is they will calculate. I mean, I think the thesis is that we would have had to spend the TI dollars, leasing commissions anyway, right? And typically, given what's happened, we'd be spending those to generate rents that were not economic now, given the quality of the old buildings. So the -- we talked incremental cost, it was cost that we would have -- that we spent that we wouldn't have had to spend, right? That's how we got to the number that's in the supplemental and what's the yield on that. So the answer is we can factor-in the TIs, et-cetera to see, but we would have spent that money anyway.

Nicholas Yulico
Analyst at Scotiabank

Okay. So -- and then is the TI leasing commission per-foot there, we should assume around -- is it around $140? Is that the number?

Thomas Sanelli
Executive Vice President, Finance & Chief Administrative Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

It's about right, maybe a touch higher depending on the deal.

Nicholas Yulico
Analyst at Scotiabank

All right, thanks. Appreciate it.

Operator

Brendan Lynch with Barclays is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

Unidentified Participant
at Vornado Realty Trust

Great. Thanks for taking my question. It looks like you've got about 14% of ABR expiring at 55 California in the 3rd-quarter and 18% for the year. Any details that you can give on renewal discussions? It sounds like you're optimistic on San Francisco in general. Just wanted to get some more color there, please.

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

Hi, it's Glenn. We remain extremely bullish on our building in San Francisco 55. It's the best building in the city, probably the states and certainly one of the best-in the country. So when you look-back from 2021 forward, we had a boatload hundreds of thousands of feet expiring from '21 to '26. We have leased almost 700,000 feet thus far during that period. We have some more explorations coming in '25 and then some more in '26. We're attacking those now. Some of those tenants will stay, some may not stay, but we feel great about what we've done. Our rents are clearly leading that market. It's not even close and our tenant roster continues to be 5-star. And so we feel great about 55 as we sit here.

Unidentified Participant
at Vornado Realty Trust

Great. Maybe just one follow-up on that. Is the 14% in the 3rd-quarter, is that one tenant or is that split between multiple different tenants?

Glen J. Weiss
Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate at Vornado Realty Trust

The 3rd-quarter of -- so in '25, there is multiple tenants expiring, Call-IT, five or six tenants throughout the year in different quarters. None of them huge, but as you end it up, you get to that role.

Unidentified Participant
at Vornado Realty Trust

Okay, very good. Thank you.

Operator

Steve Sakwa with Evercore is on the line with a question. Please proceed.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Yeah, thanks. Just one quick follow-up. On 770, I realized at least, Steve isn't quite finished, but it sounds like it's going to get over the finish line soon. Are there any sort of unique accounting I guess, adjustments that we need to be taking into consideration given the unique nature of this? Or is this just a typical normal long-term lease that you would have straight-line rent and we'll have to figure out what kind of the GAAP rent is and straight-line adjustments. I realize you get a lot of cash upfront, but just trying to think if there are any nuances of this deal because it is a little bit different.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

You know, I'm not going to comment on that transaction. It will be final -- it will -- it is finalized actually. But it will be announced, I would hope by the end of this month. And so the announcements that we make will -- press release and we'll have all the detail that we need to give you guys so that you could understand it. But I mean you get it so I don't want to get into the detail now prematurely.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay. Thank you.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Yes, sir.

Operator

John Kim from BMO is on the line with the question. Please proceed.

John Kim
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you for taking the follow-up. Steve, you mentioned the lack of new office development in New York for several years and how tough it is as far as getting the map to work on some of these sites. But how many projects do you think will get off the ground right around the same time as 350 Park? There's been a few out there in various stages. There's not enough demand.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

No, there's plenty of demand. There's just not -- the cost of building, I don't know what's going to happen with the cost of steel now, but who knows, the cost of building and the fact that interest rates remain stubbornly high and the lack of availability of aggressive capital will make the market frozen. Now 350 Park is a isolated different point-of-view because you know, we already have a lease for a major tenant and we already have a 60% capital partner. So 350 Park will get off the ground, my prediction is that almost no other building will get off the ground. And by the way, that could very well include for the short-term Penn 15.

John Kim
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Where would rents have to go to justify new development?

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

I've already answered that question. $200 a foot is an interesting boat.

John Kim
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Got it. Great. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Steven Roth
Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer at Vornado Realty Trust

Thank you all for participating. I think you can tell from the remarks of our management team, we are extremely enthusiastic about our business and extremely enthusiastic about New York and wildly enthusiastic about the Penn District. So thank you all very much for participating and we'll see you next quarter.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Corporate Executives
  • Steven Borenstein
    Senior Vice President, Corporation Counsel & Secretary
  • Steven Roth
    Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
  • Michael J. Franco
    President & Chief Financial Officer
  • Glen J. Weiss
    Executive Vice President, Office Leasing & Co-Head of Real Estate
  • Thomas Sanelli
    Executive Vice President, Finance & Chief Administrative Officer

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