Agree Realty Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 12, 2025

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Agree Realty Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please limit yourself to two questions during this call. Note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Reuben Treatman, Senior Director of Corporate Finance.

Operator

Please go ahead, Reuben.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Agri Realty's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. Before turning the call over to Joey and Peter to discuss our results for the quarter, let me first run through the cautionary language. Please note that during this call, we will make certain statements that may be considered forward looking under federal securities law, including statements related to our 2025 guidance. Our actual results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in any forward looking statements for a number of reasons.

Speaker 1

Please see yesterday's earnings release and our SEC filings, including our latest annual report on Form 10 K for a discussion of various risks and uncertainties underlying our forward looking statements. In addition, we discuss non GAAP financial measures, including core funds from operations or core FFO, adjusted funds from operations or AFFO and net debt to recurring EBITDA. Reconciliations of our historical non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release, website and SEC filings. I'll now turn the call over to Joey.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ruben, and thank you all for joining us this morning. I'm very pleased with our performance during 2024 as we maintained our strategic discipline through a year of significant market volatility. Approximately sixteen months ago, we introduced our do nothing scenario demonstrating that even in the absence of conditions that facilitated external growth, we could deliver meaningful AFFO per share growth. We resisted the temptation to move up the risk curve or deviate from our core investment strategy. Instead, we remain steadfast in our commitment to investing in the strongest retailers with superior risk adjusted returns and focused on our objective of being a valued partner to the largest retailers in the country.

Speaker 2

Quite simply, our discipline paid off. As the market shifted, we quickly capitalized equitizing with $1,100,000,000 of forward equity during the year, including $423,000,000 in the fourth quarter alone. We concluded 2024 with over $2,000,000,000 of liquidity, including $920,000,000 of outstanding forward equity. Paired with no material debt maturities until 2028, our balance sheet management philosophy has put us in a tremendous position to execute. As we enter 2025, we find ourselves once again navigating a volatile higher interest rate environment.

Speaker 2

This underscores the importance of our disciplined and prudent approach to both capital allocation and capital raising. By proactively fortifying our balance sheet last year, we provided ourselves with ample liquidity to execute on this year's investment guidance without the need for additional equity capital. At year end, leverage stood at just 3.3 times pro form a net debt to recurring EBITDA. We can deploy over $1,500,000,000 this year, while staying within our target leverage range of four times to five times net debt to EBITDA without raising any additional equity. I would note that we've had a very strong January to start the year and remain extremely confident in our ability to invest between $1,100,000,000 and $1,300,000,000 in 2025 across all three external growth platforms.

Speaker 2

It could in fact turn out to be conservative and we are committing to updating the market in regular course as we gain incremental visibility. This outlook supported by a fortress balance sheet and combined with our best in class portfolio gives us conviction in achieving our AFFO per share guidance of 4.26 to $4.3 for the full year 2025. This represents approximately 3.5% year over year growth at the midpoint. I would note that given our significant forward equity position, this includes assumptions for dilution via the treasury stock method if the stock continues to trade in the 70 range. I repeatedly said that I don't care about a $0.01 or two of earnings in any given year due to accounting methodologies, but more importantly value the balance sheet flexibility enabled by forward equity and other risk mitigation tools.

Speaker 2

Peter will provide more details on our guidance momentarily. Turning to our three external growth platforms we set out last year to further enhance and deepen our relationships with our core retailers. I am pleased to report this effort led by Craig Ehrlich, our Chief Growth Officer was a success. Today, our retail partners truly understand the value proposition of partnering with AP Realty. We are a one stop shop for acquisitions, development and developer funding solutions.

Speaker 2

This unique value proposition is unmatched in the industry. Our For the fourth quarter, we invested approximately $371,000,000 in 127 high quality retail net lease properties across all three platforms. This included the acquisition of 98 assets for over $341,000,000 The properties acquired during the quarter released to leading operators in the auto parts, off price, farm and roll supply, home improvement, tire and auto service, as well as crafts and novelty sectors. The fourth quarter marked both the highest volume and highest quality quarter of the year, evidenced by the longest weighted average lease term as well as the highest investment grade in ground lease percentage of any quarter in 2024. Notable transactions included a Walmart and Home Depot ground lease, as well as a sale leaseback with a top relationship tenant with which we enjoy a very strong relationship.

Speaker 2

The acquired properties had a weighted average cap rate of 7.3 and a weighted average lease term of twelve point three years. Approximately 10.5% of annualized base rents acquired were derived from ground leased assets, while investment grade retailers accounted for over 73% of the annualized base rents acquired. For the full year 2024, we invested $951,000,000 in two eighty two retail net lease properties spanning 45 states and 28 retail sectors. Approximately $867,000,000 of our investment activities originated from our acquisition platform. The acquisitions were completed at a weighted average cap rate of 7.5% and had a weighted average lease term of ten point four years with roughly two thirds of rents coming from investment grade retailers.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, we do not impute credit ratings for non rated retailers. Switching to our development in DFP platforms, we had a record year with 41 projects either completed or under construction representing approximately $180,000,000 of committed capital. We're continuing to see increased activity across both platforms as we work with our retail partners to help them execute their store growth plans and provide struggling developers with liquidity to fund their pipeline. During the fourth quarter, we commenced eight new development and DFP projects with total anticipated costs of approximately $45,000,000 The new projects are with leading retailers including Aldi, TJ Maxx and Marshalls, Hobby Lobby, Boot Barn, Sherwin Williams and Starbucks. Construction continued during the quarter on 14 projects with anticipated costs totaling approximately $67,000,000 Lastly, we completed construction on nine projects during the quarter with total costs of $31,000,000 On the asset management front, we executed new leases, extensions or options on over 530,000 square feet of gross leasable area during the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

For the full year 2024, we executed new leases, extensions or options on approximately 2,000,000 square feet of gross leaseable area. We are very well positioned for 2025 with only 41 leases or 120 basis points of annualized base rents maturing. During the year, we opportunistically disposed of 26 properties for total gross proceeds of over $98,000,000 including eight properties that were sold during the fourth quarter. The weighted average cap rate for dispositions in 2024 was 6.7%. At year end, our best in class portfolio included 2,370 properties and spans all 50 states.

Speaker 2

The portfolio includes two twenty nine ground leases comprising nearly 11% of annualized base rents. Our investment grade exposure year end stood at 68.2% and occupancy remained strong at 99.6%. With that, I'll hand the call over to Peter and then we can open up for questions.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Joey. Starting with the balance sheet, we had a very active year in the capital markets raising approximately $1,100,000,000 of forward equity, upsizing our revolving credit facility to $1,250,000,000 and completing a $450,000,000 bond offering. We also entered into $200,000,000 of forward starting swaps during the year, effectively fixing the base rate for a contemplated ten year unsecured debt issuance at approximately 3.7%. Combined with our outstanding forward equity of $920,000,000 this provides us with $1,100,000,000 of hedged capital to fund investment activity in 2025. During the fourth quarter, we sold 5,800,000.0 shares of forward equity via our ATM program and an overnight offering in October for anticipated net proceeds of approximately $423,000,000 We also settled 3,700,000.0 shares of forward equity for proceeds of over $228,000,000 As of year end, we had approximately 12,900,000.0 shares of outstanding forward equity, which as mentioned are anticipated to raise net proceeds of $920,000,000 upon settlement.

Speaker 3

We are contractually obligated to settle $12,700,000 of those shares in 2025. Additionally, as discussed on past calls, we recast and expanded our revolving credit facility in August. The facility was increased from $1,000,000,000 to $1,250,000,000 and includes an accordion option that allows us to request additional lender commitments up to a total of $2,000,000,000 We also extended the term of the facility to 2029 including extension options and reduced our borrowing costs by five basis points based on our current credit ratings and leverage ratio. As of December 31, we have over 2,000,000,000 of liquidity including $1,100,000,000 of availability on our revolving credit facility, the previously mentioned outstanding forward equity and cash on hand. Pro form a for the settlement of our outstanding forward equity, net debt to recurring EBITDA was approximately 3.3 times, which marks the lowest level in two years.

Speaker 3

Excluding the impact of unsettled forward equity, our net debt to recurring EBITDA was 4.9 times. Our total debt to enterprise value was approximately 27%, while our fixed charge coverage ratio, which includes principal amortization and the preferred dividend is very healthy at 4.4 times. Our floating rate exposure remains minimal with $158,000,000 outstanding on the revolver at year end. And as Joey mentioned, we have no material debt maturities until 2028. We are in excellent position to execute our investment guidance this year without having to raise any additional equity capital.

Speaker 3

The strength of our fortress balance sheet was further validated by the credit rating upgrade we received in July. S and P upgraded our issuer rating to BBB plus from BBB with a stable outlook, which is a testament to the prudent and disciplined manner in which we continue to grow the company. Moving to earnings, core FFO per share was $1.02 for the fourth quarter and $4.08 for full year 2024, representing 3.53.7% year over year increases respectively. AFFO per share was $1.04 for the fourth quarter, representing a 4.7% year over year increase. For the full year AFFO per share was $4.14 which reflects the high end of our guidance range and 4.6% year over year growth.

Speaker 3

As Joey mentioned, we issued initial AFFO per share guidance of $4.26 to $4.3 for full year 2025, representing approximately 3.5% year over year growth at the midpoint. We provide parameters on several other inputs in our earnings release including investment and disposition volume, general and administrative expenses, non reimbursable real estate expenses, as well as income tax and other tax expenses. In addition to those parameters, our earnings guidance for 2025 includes anticipated treasury stock method dilution related to our outstanding forward equity. As a reminder, if ADC stock trades above the net price of our outstanding forward equity offerings, the dilutive impact of unsettled shares must be included in our share count in accordance with the treasury stock method. Provided that our stock continues to trade near current levels, we anticipate that treasury stock method dilution will have an impact of roughly 1 to 2 pennies on full year 2025 AFFO per share.

Speaker 3

That said, the impact could be higher if our stock price moves materially above current levels. Our consistent and reliable earnings growth continues to support a growing and well covered dividend. During the fourth quarter, we declared monthly cash dividends of $0.253 per common share for each of October, November and December. The monthly dividend equates to an annualized dividend of almost $3.04 per share and represents a 2.4% year over year increase. Our dividend is very well covered with a payout ratio of 73% of AFFO per share for the fourth quarter.

Speaker 3

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Joey.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Peter. Operator, at this time, let's open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. First question comes from Ki Bin Kim at Chorus Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning. Hey, Joy. You provided an interesting case study on one of your ground lease renewals in your presentation. I I was just curious, I'm sure that's not indicative of their whole ground lease portfolio, but typically when these ground leases come due, I guess, is it more of a typical lease renewal where you get a little bit of a bump and that case study was a more of a one off example or do you think there is significant mark to market upside?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Ki Bin. There's definitely significant mark to mark upside there. The case study that you're referring to, the tenant had no remaining options, initially offered to extend it effectively a five year option at a flat rental rate. We had inbounds north of $180,000 starting year one. The tenant was about $105,000 I believe.

Speaker 2

And we told the tenant if you want to stay, you're going to have to sign a new fifteen year round lease with options marking that to market and that's the reference, the upside that you're talking about. That's indicative of a naked lease with no options in the ground lease space. Now that isn't a regular occurrence for us, but it's an example, I think it's a prime example of the upside if and when we were to retain control of the building.

Speaker 4

And on your forward equity, you have about $900,000,000 of forward equity out there. I think when you look at it versus history, probably a little bit higher than what you've had. So I was just curious high level, how do you balance how much forward equity you have out there? Because you are paying the dividend on it, it's not interest expense, but it is still a cash drag or is it that you see larger acquisition opportunities coming up sooner?

Speaker 2

Well, to the question of the expense of the forward equity, the interesting construct or factor with forward equity is yes, you do pay the dividend. Historically, when rates were at zero or very low, you weren't earning any interest. Today, the forward equity with rates being higher, effectively the interest nets out the dividend maybe to the tune net of less ten, fifteen basis points inclusive of fees. So there's really no cash drag before the Fed lowered rates in the most recent most recent time the Fed lowered rates, there was actually a positive spread to the forward equity. That's the interest expense that we are inuring versus relative to the dividend that we're paying.

Speaker 2

And so there really is a de minimis if any expense to carrying that forward equity today, which is very different than historically. Now there is the treasury method of dilution, which we talked about in the prepared remarks, so that's accounting methodology, but not cash. In terms of how much forward equity, it's really a function of sources and uses. And then where do we think our macro the macro overlays upon that. And so you'll see us and you have seen us historically carry ample forward equity to source or to utilize for investment activities.

Speaker 2

Obviously with approximately $920,000,000 in forward equity, we're locked and loaded here, and we're prepared to execute on our guidance or above for 2025.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank

Speaker 2

you. Thanks, Ki Bin.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Smedes Rose at Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Thanks. I just wanted to ask you, it's sort of interesting to see kind of a continued slight downward bias in your acquisition cap rates that offsetting we see continued upward movement in the ten year, which I think is now at around 4.6%. So just looking forward, I mean, do you think seller expectations even for higher quality buckets of assets that you cited, do those need to change? And maybe can you maybe share what you're seeing thus far in the first quarter?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question, Smedes. I think part of the problem is mornings like today where you have a 10 basis point spike the last time I looked in the ten year treasury after the CPI print came out. So we have forty five or sixty day swings with 10% movement in the base rate for effectively the world, the ten year U. S. Treasury, which has become normalized in everybody's minds.

Speaker 2

That includes net lease sellers. And so the ten year vacillating between four point two five percent and four point seven five percent, I'm just using broad ranges here, doesn't really seem to impact sellers' expectations of pricing. Now we've been very careful and very prudent in how we will continue to be and how we deploy capital at appropriate spreads and frankly how we gauge asset level pricing in this environment. That said, we're not going to come out of the gates and blow $1,000,000,000 at acquisitions in the first quarter in this volatile environment. We'll be disciplined.

Speaker 2

We'll continue to manage those uses of capital. But the volatility certainly doesn't help reset pricing expectations in such a large fragmented and frankly predominantly individually owned space. What we are seeing is individual cases of distress, usually non asset level distress in other assets potentially where partnerships need proceeds or individuals need proceeds from the sale or disposition of their net lease assets. But again, the volatility here really doesn't serve anybody to have stabilized pricing.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And I just wanted to ask you, you mentioned in the past about continuing to take share within the market and that sounds like that's still the case. And I was just wondering, I mean, there's a lot of discussion around potentially changing the regulatory banks for, sorry, the regulatory, I guess, for local and regional banks. And is there anything there that might make them more competitive that you have on your radar?

Speaker 5

Or do you think it's just kind of you'll continue to compete in a similar environment?

Speaker 2

No, I don't see any regulatory issues that may open up the capacity for banks to lend, but you have a multi pronged problem as a merchant developer today. One, obviously, the liquidity of construction financing, the availability of that financing as you're alluding to, the higher construct the rates on construction loans, the lower loan to cost on construction loans and then effectively for merchant builders in our space, the ability to have some visibility into where they're going to be able to transact at the end of the day upon completion. And so what our developer funding platform continues to do and continues to take share is bridge that gap with $2,000,000,000 in liquidity and $1,250,000,000 credit facility and the forward equity position we have. We have visibility into our cost of capital and we're able to provide solutions for retailers and developers to bring projects to fruition that can still pencil. You combine it with rising construction costs and tariffs on aluminum and steel and all of these other things that are going to continue to challenge construction costs in this country, it's a tremendous solution and it continues to gain share like you said.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Spence.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Ronald Kamden at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. This is Jenny on for Ron. Thanks for taking my question. I think first is with 6% to 8.2% of IG tenant exposure like almost reaching all time high. How does this compare to your long term expectations?

Speaker 6

Like do you anticipate this percentage to increase in the near term based on your acquisition strategy?

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 2

So we always talk about investment grade percentage being a really a proxy for us or an output of our investment strategy. And so 68.2% as you mentioned is near an all time high. At the same time, we're huge fans of unrated retailers. Again, we don't impute credit ratings such as Hobby Lobby, Chick fil A, Publix, Aldi. And so those transactions materialize, we'll be there if the pricing makes sense.

Speaker 2

And so that investment grade exposure was, I would tell you almost artificially ticked up by institutions loading up on Walgreens and other credits to check the proverbial IG box. That can go away quickly if you're not prudent with your capital allocation and don't see trends in the consumer and retail sectors. We're going to focus on the biggest and best retailers in the country. The vast majority of those have investment grade exposure, but there are some investment grade exposure that we're big fans of. Burlington being one that comes to mind, that's a great relationship for us.

Speaker 2

So again, that's really an output of our investment strategy focusing on our sandbox retailers of the 30 plus or minus biggest invest in the country.

Speaker 6

That makes sense. Thanks. I think the second I want to ask about the transaction volume, like considering the current environment, like do you see the transaction volume kind of slowed down in the first quarter or do you see that's kind of trending in line with your expectations? Like what are the upside or downside to your like $1,200,000,000 investment pipeline this year? Thank you.

Speaker 2

First quarter is effectively locked and loaded. We've had, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, again, subject to diligence and closing of a very strong January. Right now, we're sourcing for the second quarter. In terms of forward visibility, every day changes, every executive order and every piece of data that comes out on the environment. And so the most exciting part about this business to me is that any given day, any given hour, a new and exciting opportunity can pop up that inures to our pipeline.

Speaker 2

But we think first quarter is right where we want it. We're very pleased with it. And second quarter, we're focused on right now.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Michael Goldsmith at UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. The auto parts category stepped up as a percentage of the portfolio ABR by 70 basis points and we know you're very thoughtful about what enters your portfolio. So what is the thesis for auto parts and why auto parts now?

Speaker 2

So specific to that transaction, it was a portfolio transaction from an institutional seller of over 40 assets for at least two NAPA genuine. That's our first material exposure or semi material exposure to Napa Genuine. Obviously, our exposure to O'Reilly and AutoZone is more significant and you can see that in our top tenants. We've talked about auto parts. O'Reilly had a good print last week.

Speaker 2

We've talked about auto parts in the construct of average age of cars on the road at twelve point seven years, a record. The lack of financeability of cars today just given the interest rate environment. We're going to see now with aluminum and steel, I mean Ford came out, Bill Ford came out and said that these tariffs could destroy the auto industry. Cars today are getting older for record every record every day and they need more parts. And so we continue to love these significant fans of the auto parts sector.

Speaker 2

The second piece is the underlying real estate, not only the credit and the business model. These are generally 6,000 to 7,000 square foot rectangles that are paying $11 to $12 per square foot with vinyl floors or concrete floors, no TI or TIA or landlord's work amortized into the rental rates. They're multipurpose boxes. And if that tenant were to ever to leave filed via bankruptcy, not exercise an option, you have a highly marketable rectangular replacement cost. And so it fits right within our wheelhouse.

Speaker 2

It's a top three favorite sector of ours.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks for that, Joey. And my follow-up question is just on the expected transaction cadence for the year. Last year, transaction market was much slower to start the year and picked up as we move through 2024. You commented that you've had a very strong January.

Speaker 7

So does that mean that the balance through the year should be maybe continue to be back half loaded in terms of acquisitions, but should be more balanced this year relative to last year and that also should help support some of the earnings growth this year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

I have no idea to be frank. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone third or fourth quarter of this year. We just started building second quarter. Our average transaction cycle is now down to approximately sixty six, sixty seven days on the acquisition front. We're in a volatile environment.

Speaker 2

I'm not going to make predictions. That's why we're in the heads position with the ten year swap to $3,700,000 with $920,000,000 of forward equity. I really didn't want anything to do with the capital markets this year to be honest. And so that war chest is going to allow us to be decisive at times where we see there's opportunities, but we can be patient and we think there's volatility and underlying pricing should move. But right now, honestly, all we have is visibility into Q1.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Rob Stevenson at Janney Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Joey, can you give an update on Big Lots and how things look to be playing out there? I think last quarter you had a new tenant ready for the Manassas, Virginia location and where are you with Grand Rapids and the other locations these days?

Speaker 2

Yes, the Big Lots bankruptcy continues to extend on obviously Nexus, the original purchaser out of bankruptcy failed the week they were supposed to close. And so now they're going through another lease auction period. This is a multi month bankruptcy process. Manassas, we have taken the rent from $8.55 per square foot to $16 per square foot. That lease is signed.

Speaker 2

The tenant has yet to commence rent. We are working in Cedar Park, Texas on one of the other ones where we have a high quality tenant that would like to purchase that lease, but needs approvals that would take that rent from $5 per square foot to $8 per square foot. We have significant interest in the asset use specified here in Michigan. In Michigan and then we're awaiting the results frankly of these lease auctions, which continue to be delayed based upon just the bankruptcy, which is kind of run-in circles.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's helpful. And then where is the sale leaseback market sitting today with either your major tenants and others that you want to do business with? Are they looking to do stuff this year? Is it likely that there's going to be a decrease in volume there?

Speaker 8

How would you sort of view that given your recent conversations with current and prospective tenants?

Speaker 2

So as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we closed a sale leaseback with a relationship tenant subject to CA and confidentiality. That was our third transaction with that tenant. We've closed already in Q1, a sale leaseback with another relationship tenant. As far as the year progresses, it's really going to be what the C suite, what the CFO, how they want to capitalize their balance sheet. Generally, these are unsecured issuers who are looking at the unsecured market where they can issue.

Speaker 2

They're looking at sale leaseback market where they can price. We've had a number of discussions on sale leasebacks on different structured partnerships for retailers that are developing new real estate on their balance sheet. There's a lot of interesting conversations happening. I'll leave it at that. We'll see where they transpire.

Speaker 2

This morning's print probably with the CPI at 3% could change that frankly or make it more frankly the market more active. And so, look, they're always comparing cost of capital like we're comparing our cost of capital to a transaction. I would expect additional sale leaseback activity this year though.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks Rob.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Spencer Glimcher at Green Street. Please go ahead. Thank you. Maybe just one

Speaker 9

on your development segment. Just curious if there's been any change in regards demand to build new stores just given the macro and political backdrop. And then as it relates to that, have there been any talks about fears around labor shortages and how topical is that right now in your discussion as it relates to the development space?

Speaker 2

Our discussions that I've been with, I want to say five plus retailers myself in the past sixty days, they've all revolved around retailers. These are the largest retailers in the country wanting to get new stores built and how they do it. Whether that's Walmart or Lowe's or Tractor Supply, O'Reilly, AutoZone, seven Eleven Speedway, these tenants all want to grow. But given the constraints I talked about earlier in the Q and A, there are challenges for their growth. Our three pronged platform and our multi level capabilities plus our balance sheet can be a solution.

Speaker 2

And so as I just mentioned on the previous answer, there's a lot of different solutions being discussed. I think we have unique opportunities here given our capabilities in the organic development front plus our cost of capital and balance sheet to bridge the gap that's out there today and potentially be that solution. But it's all subject to the individual transaction level. And then Spencer, the one common theme that we hear from large retailers today is as opposed to ten years ago when brick and mortar is dead, today the store is the hub, not one piece of an omni channel solution. It is the hub of the omni channel solution.

Speaker 2

All retailers today have realized that e commerce is a significant part of their omni channel platform. That's basically all of them outside of off price that they cannot send goods to people to their home for free and have them return for free 40% via UPS or FedEx, that model doesn't work. And so driving traffic to the store and if you don't have a store in that MSA is critical. So this is the greatest desire to expand that I've seen for retailers since before the great financial crisis. The challenge is how they do so in this liquidity constrained elevated construction cost environment.

Speaker 2

And that's where I think again our unique capabilities can come into play and retailers as I mentioned in the prepared remarks fully appreciate that today because there's no public company in our space with our developing capabilities and there's no private company in our space with the costs or cost of capital and liquidity and balance sheet that we have. So it's us and us alone that can provide some of these solutions.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Yes, now your comments on the financing alternatives and retailer appetite to grow, that certainly makes sense, but labor and labor shortages and immigration policy, obviously that's out of most people's hands. So just curious if that has been coming up at all in discussions and if that's going to potentially deter or delay development at least as you see it in the pipeline right now?

Speaker 2

No, it has not come up yet. Could come up if we see some mass deportations. But the biggest challenge again is just constructability and construction costs.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from John Kilachowski at Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi. This is Cheryl on behalf of John. I just want to understand what themes or concerns have emerged in terms of growth plans for some of your tenants. And in the light of like recent bankruptcies and store closures, are any of your tenants waiting to capitalize on these opportunities given the vacant retail space available?

Speaker 2

Thank you. It's the lack of space that's available. We've seen it in the Party City auction where Dollar Tree and Five Below bought, I think about 33% of the leases. And so retailers and we've talked to them and frankly educated some of them is, if you want new stores acquiring leases in bankruptcy is an effective and efficient means to do so. Now we're going to have to put ourselves at a sandwich position there buying a leasehold and subleasing.

Speaker 2

That's not what we want to do at the end of the day. But ultimately, retailers have to be creative with their growth given the constraints in the environment today.

Speaker 10

That makes sense. And just one quick follow-up on your comment that private players don't have liquidity or access to capital. Can you like discuss instances if you've seen any private players exit the market? Or are you seeing any opportunities arising from private capital not being able to participate in acquisitions? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Definitely across all three platforms, right. The lack of ten thirty one in the capital in this space due to the transaction slowdown across commercial real estate, the lack of private capital due to elevated rates, that's both at the individual and institutional level. Again, I can't stress enough, a fortress balance sheet with a locked in cost of capital is a massive advantage today.

Speaker 9

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Uphol Rana at KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Could you guys remind us how much bad debt was embedded into guidance in 2024 and how much came to realization last year and then how much is embedded this year?

Speaker 3

Sure. This is Peter. In terms of our guide for 2025 that includes an assumption for 50 basis points of credit loss and that compares to the roughly 35 basis points of credit loss that we incurred in 2024, which is slightly above our longer term average. In 2024, our guide also included an assumption for 50 basis points of credit loss. I would say that this year the 50 basis points allows for a worst case scenario if you will with big lots.

Speaker 3

And in addition to that, it includes an allowance for other potential credit issues that may arise during the year.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. That was helpful. And then the other guidance question was dispositions this year could be a little less than last year. What are your thoughts there and what kind of types of tenants or industries are you targeting for dispositions this year?

Speaker 2

Yes, if we roll back the clock approximately, call it fourteen, sixteen months, sixteen months we were talking about a do nothing scenario. Then we came out in January with a leverage neutral $500,000,000 scenario, which included approximately $100,000,000 in dispositions, which we hit, which was effectively driven by capital recycling for low yield assets in Florida. We saw some oddball transactions in Florida, capital flowing into Florida, paying aggressive cap rates and we took the opportunity to recycle assets there throughout the year. This year, not dispositions, we're really focused on non core assets or frankly if someone values the property more than we do. They're all for sale, all 2,400 of them for the right price.

Speaker 2

But it's certainly not a necessary source of entered the year with.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Linda Tsai at Jefferies. Please go ahead. Hi.

Speaker 12

When you look across the landscape of retailers, who are you seeing rent coverages improving or deteriorating on the margin versus a year ago?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Linda. We don't get rent coverage from most of our tenants at the EBITDA store level. It's not something that Walmart or O'Reilly or TJX is going to provide at the store level. That's generally situated in a small middle market sale leaseback transaction. But I think we can look across sectors today and see experiential retail, car washes, restaurants and this isn't obviously really not relevant to our portfolio.

Speaker 2

But we can see the rent coverage is there having challenges given the highly levered balance sheets and the top line degradation of operators like Topgolf that report publicly through Callaway.

Speaker 12

And then what metrics or aspects pushed you to a BBB and how far are you from another rating upgrade?

Speaker 2

So BBB plus we got upgraded to last year. It's just honestly, it's just size. The rating agencies frankly are fairly slow. S and P, my opinion was two to three years too late to upgrade us to BBB plus So today we sit at BAA1 BBB plus I think this is the best balance sheet frankly probably at all of REITAM, if not it's top three. We have no material debt maturities until 2028 with a war chest.

Speaker 2

You combine that with our portfolio, the diversity from a geographic tenant and sector perspective, the size of our assets and the cash flows related to them, and then just the nature of the recession resistance of our portfolio and it's pretty difficult to argue against an A minus credit rating. So it will come in due course. We don't control the timing with either of the rating agencies, but it's really just size at this point and they continue to move that barometer used to be $5,000,000,000 and $10,000,000,000 and they continue to move that threshold around.

Speaker 9

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Linda.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Wes Golladay at Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hey, good morning, guys. Can you talk about how the SandBox is evolving and maybe the few tenants you no longer do business with, but then conversely, you're now a one stop shop or interest with you and you did do a new deal with Napa?

Speaker 2

Yes, look, we're always looking at the SandBox. There's nothing static. We're following retailers, consumer trends, sectoral trends, all those relevant data points. The evolution of the SandBox frankly to get in or out is pretty slow. I mean, we're dealing with the biggest retailers here in the world, but there are retailers such as I mentioned in the prepared remarks.

Speaker 2

Boot Barn, which we're a big fan of, which we're actively doing a project with. But the evolution of the SandBox is slow, right? I mean, we are methodically watching the credit profile, consumer trends, and all of those relevant data points to either enter or and or exit the SandBox. The second driver of that is just exposure overall in the portfolio. We want to have a well balanced portfolio.

Speaker 2

We don't think it's appropriate to take tenants up to 10% or 9% absent maybe Walmart or somebody of that ilk. We want to have a well balanced portfolio from a tenant perspective, a sector perspective as well as geographic.

Speaker 13

Okay. And then a quick question on G and A. And one of the big parts of the story has been scaling the G and A the last few years. This year it's sort of flatlining. What is driving that increase and how much is due to cash versus non cash?

Speaker 2

I'll let Peter speak to the cash versus non cash. Obviously, we started last year with a do nothing scenario. We made significant investments once we activated during the second half of last year, both to finalize the year in terms of people and systems. And then in preparation for 2025. We've onboarded a number of new team members here that will be here for full year 2025, have a few positions that we're hiring for still in 2025.

Speaker 2

I think you'll see ultimately that number scale and be driven down. Our initial guidance obviously as you mentioned is in line there. In terms of cash versus non cash, Peter, I want you to take that.

Speaker 3

Yes, Wes, just to clarify, we guide to total G and A as a percent of adjusted revenue and that includes non cash G and A. To the point of your question, we've seen greater growth in our non cash G and A expense relative to cash G and A over the last couple of years. And so when thinking about the impact to AFFO, we're continuing to see cash G and A scale as a percent of adjusted revenue. And as we continue to scale the business, we would anticipate that that trend continues.

Speaker 2

Yes. And I would note that the non cash G and A is really the driver of that is the function of going from a five year restricted time but based stock to a three year, which we thought in terms of talent management purposes was critical. We made that change, Peter, in twenty twenty twenty twenty three, a couple of years ago. 2023 that we didn't think that team members fully valued the five year vesting period and three years was more in line with industry standards and frankly with just mobility today in terms of jobs and we wanted obviously to retain top of our team here.

Speaker 13

Got it. Thanks everyone.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Wes.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Eric Borton at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning. Just on the 2025 lease expirations, of the 41 leases set to expire this year, are there any known move outs or are any of the 41 on the disposition target list today?

Speaker 2

Really no known material move outs. Most of them will exercise contractual options. Those are rolling in honestly as we weekly, if not daily. And so no known material move outs. Potentially if there was, we would have some we're excited about it.

Speaker 2

We'll see if they exercise their option. That's in Provo, Utah, an A plus piece of real estate. Since subsequent to reporting, we've had some options exercised including the Walmart Rancho Cordova with a five year option exercise. That's a ground lease and so that list continues to dwindle

Speaker 14

That's helpful. And then just on capital allocation, I know that liquidity is full and that you don't need to access the equity markets to acquire any of the twenty twenty five potential acquisitions. But as you look to replenish the war chest for 2026 and beyond, how are you thinking about the capital mix? I think, Peter, you'd mentioned a potential long term debt issuance, but yes, any color on that would be appreciated.

Speaker 2

We have the ten year swap to the tune of $200,000,000 excuse me, a 3.7% for any future issuance this year in the unsecured debt markets. But in reality, we don't need the dollar. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we can stay sub five times by investing $1,500,000,000 this year without any incremental dispositions. So this is a preappetized balance sheet that doesn't need a dollar that has a swap in place to access the unsecured markets in a ten year treasury market that's highly volatile. All right.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Farrell Granite at Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you can make a few comments on how you were thinking about the health of the consumer, specifically the lower end and how that may impact the retail that you're exposed to?

Speaker 2

If we continue to see pressure on the low income cohort, undoubtedly with inflation and eggs obviously back in the news, with goods and services that are necessity based. The high end consumer with the looking at their four zero one and looking at their portfolio still feels well. And then trade down and let's call it the $150,000,000 median household income to Walmart and Walmart continuing to take share. And so that will continue to evolve throughout the year, obviously subject to inflation, subject to macroeconomic factors, but we see a bifurcated, if not trifurcated consumer

Speaker 15

Thank you. And also in terms of competition in the market, are you seeing any shifts either today and going forward compared to the last few quarters?

Speaker 2

Our competition continues to dwindle. Again, at the end of a interest rate super cycle with ten thirty one transactions lagging obviously with the transactional market cut by 45% over the past couple of years from historic averages, We are seeing less and less institutional competition, individual competition, tax motivated competition, DST motivated competition. The competition today is with sellers' expectations themselves and where they think pricing should be in this new world order of 2025 that we're in. And so we encourage brokers all the time, sellers all the time to wake up to February of twenty twenty five and stop pretending it's 2023.

Speaker 15

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Rich Hightower at Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the question here. I guess, Joe, you spent a lot of time this morning talking about DFP and how it's kind of a unique solution in the marketplace for retailer store growth. What are the gating factors to that becoming within the size of your business multiples of what it is today? Is it simply demand on the retailer side?

Speaker 7

Is the concentration issue in terms of how the company allocates capital? Maybe spend a little time on that if you don't mind.

Speaker 2

Sure. One thing, returns as well as they fit into our sandbox. We are not going to deploy capital and to develop in funding platform or development returns that we can that we can execute in sixty seven days in the acquisition space. Danielle Spiejar, our General Counsel here did a tremendous job in twenty twenty four compressing our days to close down to that sixty six, sixty seven and her team. But again, duration equals risk and we need a premium based upon that risk and duration.

Speaker 2

And so as we've talked about, if we can churn and burn, take a building that's an existing structure, get in there, add on to it, do a renovation, improve site improvements and expansion and the tenants can be paying rent in one hundred and twenty days rather than sixty seven days, that can be a tighter spread, call it 50 basis points to where we can acquire a like kind asset. If we're going to go through a twelve to eighteen month entitlement permitting and construction process, that spread is going to be wider. And so that's the true gating factor here for us is developers returns on cost, where they have projects, retailers expectations for return on cost. And we sort through hundreds, if not thousands of projects annually to decide which ones we think make sense given the kind of those are brackets.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's very helpful. And I'm going to ask another question, which I think has been asked in different ways. But as we think as we start to think about twenty twenty six funding sources and uses, and I appreciate that it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. But just given the choppiness of the last few months for pretty obvious reasons, what are the chances in your mind that 2026 could be a do nothing scenario all over again?

Speaker 2

Well, you really asked me to think I don't think it's going to be a do nothing scenario in 2026. I think we are sitting in the pole position right now. I'm not concerned about again, as I've said in the prepared remarks, the $0.01 here or $0.01 there. I will take potential treasury method dilution versus a pre funded war chest and the ten year swap to 3.7, 10 out of 10 times for a potential dilution of a $0.01 or two for accounting methodologies. What we're sitting on in terms of this portfolio and this balance sheet inclusive of its maturity schedule is truly unprecedented, I think, in this space and I think it's going to continue to endure value.

Speaker 2

And 2026, I wouldn't anticipate it would be a do nothing scenario, but it's only February 2025. So we'll see what executive orders are signed today and then throughout the year.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks for the comments.

Speaker 16

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the last question comes from Haendel St. Juste at Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 16

Hey guys, thanks for squeezing me in. Two quick ones for me. So first, I wanted to follow-up on the earlier comments on the 50 basis points of credit reserve. I was hoping you could add some color or ballpark exposure to not just big lots, but also to Joanne's, party city, family dollar. I guess I'm trying to get a better sense of the categories and tenants specifically in the portfolio watching a bit more closely here.

Speaker 16

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Haendel, it's really the big lots scenario as this continues to play out. We have two party cities in the portfolio that we'll be thrilled to get back. One is at a target anchored shopping center in Davenport, Iowa and one is in Texas in Port Arthur. We'd be thrilled to get those back and have tenants lined up and waiting. We don't own any Joanns.

Speaker 2

Not sure frankly why anyone would in today's environment in the net lease structure. Probably the worst retail bankruptcy of all time. All the stores were making money. Nine months later, we file again. We didn't even reject one lease.

Speaker 2

We expect them to effectively liquidate at this point, just to nerd a Hobby Lobby, who's our favorite. But that's I mean, that's really it. A couple of movie theaters we're always watching.

Speaker 14

Come out. I don't know one of

Speaker 2

the best titles, so that always concerns me. One of the best films, didn't see any of them. Besides that, we're in a great place.

Speaker 16

Got it. Got it. Appreciate that. Also wanted to ask about what you might be hearing about the potential impact of tariffs to some of your tenants. I was looking at some of your tenant categories like home improvement, auto parts, farm supply.

Speaker 16

I was curious if you think that they could be more at risk because a number of them have items that are produced, assembled in Mexico, Canada, China. And so curious how that might be impacting your thinking and maybe your underwriting in some of these categories?

Speaker 2

Look, the nonstop tariff talk, which doesn't appear to be going anywhere is going to affect that effectively all consumer categories and retail categories today and ultimately flow down to the consumer. That's the bottom line. So whether it's Bill Ford talking about cars or any other components that are manufactured and or imported into this country. The good news is that most retailers, the national retailers due to the first Trump presidency and the tariffs, they really diversified their source, right, their sourcing. And so coming from now it seems like only Australia won't have tariffs.

Speaker 2

So looking across their global procurement efforts, TJX for example, which would be a beneficiary from these tariffs because I think you'll see trade down has I believe it's 16 global purchasing offices in 16 countries around the globe. Those efforts that came from the 2016 administration and those tariffs hopefully and I think did give frankly retailers the opportunity to diversify their procurement sources and their purchasing. That said ultimately tariffs flow down to the consumer unless retailers want to eat it on margin. We have the biggest retailers in the country in our portfolio for a reason. They have the liquidity of the balance sheet to invest in labor, to invest in price, which directly can be right related to tariffs.

Speaker 2

Walmart can choose, TJX can choose not to move price and to take share. Now if I'm a small middle market retailer and I'm subject to those tariffs and I don't have a multi billion dollar balance sheet, I'm going to have to pass that through somehow or find some savings in SG and A. And so it's tariffs will continue to be in the news, the impact of them, we're to see what those are as they work through and they get resolved. But it will be the small middle market retailers that suffer the greatest consequences from any tariffs here.

Speaker 16

Appreciate the thoughts. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. And the last question now is from Omo Kao, an investor. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hello? Cayo, we hear you.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, this is Sam on for Cayo. I just wanted to ask you guys if you can give us an update on some of the retail categories experienced headwinds, specifically talking about dollar stores and on pharmacies?

Speaker 2

Well, we saw CVS as print this morning, which beat guidance and a strong outlook for 2025, that's just CVS specifically. The pharmacy sector, obviously, I mean, if you look year over year, pharmacy for us is down 10% almost, but that's without any material dispositions year over year. And so those sectors that were in the news will continue to experience some of those headwinds absent obviously some macroeconomic changes. We'll continue to invest in what we think are the best retailers in a recession resistant environment, sticking to our sandbox. You won't see us move into experiential, you won't see us ramp our dollar store exposure that's just going down every You won't see us increase our pharmacy exposure.

Speaker 2

We're focused on the best and brightest categories in our opinion, whether that's off price, general merchandise, Walmart, tire and auto service, auto parts like we talked about earlier, dominant grocers in this country such as Kroger, Aldi, Wegmans, HEB, Publix. We'll be focused on the best of the best here. And we're going to let this we're going to let the really everything else shake out.

Speaker 5

All right. That makes sense. And I guess the last question, I hope I didn't miss it, but are you guys seeing anything change from your watch list or credit perspective?

Speaker 2

No. As I mentioned earlier, we're just continuing to navigate and watch or really can't do much through this big lots bankruptcy with the few big lots that we have. Next lease auction, they continue just to go through different hands and but our portfolio we feel like is in great shape.

Speaker 5

All right. That's all I got. Thanks guys. I appreciate your time.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions. I will turn the call back over for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thank you all for joining us this morning. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Agree Realty Q4 2024
00:00 / 00:00