InvenTrust Properties Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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February 12, 2025

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

you for standing by, and welcome to Inventrust's Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. My name is Elliot, and I'll be your conference call operator today. Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's presentation is being recorded and a replay will be available on the Investors section of the company's website at inventtrustproperties.com. I'd now like to hand over to Mr. Dan Rado, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending our call today. Joining me from the Inventrust team is D. J. Bush, President and Chief Executive Officer Mike Phillips, Chief Financial Officer Christy David, Chief Operating Officer and Dave Heimberger, Chief Investment Officer. Following the team's prepared remarks, the lines will be opened for questions.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, some of today's comments may contain forward looking statements about the company's views on the future of our business and financial performance, including forward looking earnings guidance and future market conditions. These are based on management's current beliefs and expectations and are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Any forward looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we assume no obligation to update any forward looking statements made on today's call or that are in the quarterly financial supplemental or press release. In addition, we will also reference certain non GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials, which are posted on our Investor Relations website.

Speaker 1

With that, I will turn the call over to DJ.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dan. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. I appreciate everyone joining us this morning. I'm going to start the call with some high level commentary regarding the fourth quarter and full year 2024 accomplishments as well as key strategic objectives for 2025. After that, Mike will provide more detail on our financial results and expectations for the year ahead.

Speaker 2

Finally, Christy will share highlights of our operational successes and offer additional color on market performance and leasing activity. We're pleased to report strong results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, driven by robust demand for our properties and Inventor has highly effective capital deployment. Core FFO per share grew by 5% both in the fourth quarter and for the full year, which marks the third consecutive year of cash flow per share growth above 4%. Increased occupancy, solid leasing spreads, expense management and strategic capital allocation continue to be the underpinning factors of our consistent above sector average cash flow growth. Healthy economic growth, perpetual migration tailwinds and favorable business conditions continue to drive demand across our markets.

Speaker 2

As we've consistently emphasized, some belt cities are experiencing significant population inflows, particularly from higher cost coastal areas, which is driving demand for our retail real estate. Recent forecasts project that the Sunbelt's population will grow by approximately 7% over the next decade, outpacing the national growth rate of less than one percent. Beyond these demographic trends, the region's expanding tech, healthcare and logistics sectors create a solid foundation for sustained long term job growth. We are especially optimistic about opportunities in these markets where we believe demand will out pace supply further enhancing the strength and resilience of our portfolio. Supporting this dynamic, retail development starts across The U.

Speaker 2

S. Fell to the lowest level since the first quarter of twenty fifteen, underscoring the constrained pipeline for retail strip centers. Leasing activity and portfolio operations remain impressive despite some well documented retailer disruptions in late twenty twenty four and early twenty twenty five. Inventress has minimal exposure to headline bankruptcies and store closures and we fully expect to maintain significant leasing leverage across our properties in upcoming negotiations. We ended the year with lease occupancy at 97.4% and economic occupancy at 95.3%, a two ten basis point spread representing approximately $6,300,000 in incremental annualized base rent expected to come online over the next several quarters.

Speaker 2

If you take into consideration an all time high occupancy, the built in leasing pipeline and the high retention rate of our existing tenants, the recipe for accelerated AFFO and free cash flow growth is quite promising. Due to a relatively favorable capital markets backdrop in the late summer and early fall of twenty twenty four, coupled with a compelling mix of high quality and accretive acquisition opportunities, we issued approximately $250,000,000 of equity to accelerate growth. This meaningfully expanded our acquisition activity, while also taking the opportunity to pay off expensive variable rate debt. In the fourth quarter, we acquired four high quality assets. In Charleston, a new market for Inventrust, we added Market at Mill Creek, an 80,000 square foot center anchored by a high performing Lowe's Foods.

Speaker 2

We also acquired Nexton Square, a 134,000 square foot open air lifestyle center featuring a strong mix of high performing restaurants and local retailers. In Fort Myers, One of the fastest growing cities in The U. S. According to the U. S.

Speaker 2

Census, we secured the Forum, a 186,000 square foot center with 96% occupancy shadow anchored by a target. And as mentioned on our last call in October, we grew our presence in the Richmond market with Stonehenge Village. In total for 24, we acquired eight properties for $282,000,000 and opportunistically disposed of two properties for $68,000,000 As we move into 2025, we are highly confident in our ability to continue executing on our strategy and believe the future holds even greater promise for InventTrust. We will remain focused on creating value through property acquisitions, portfolio optimization, operational excellence and leveraging our in place established platform. I'll now turn the call over to Mike for a detailed review of our financial results and to discuss our expectations for 2025.

Speaker 2

Mike?

Speaker 3

Thanks, DJ. Inventrust closed out 2024 on a strong note as our team and portfolio continue to perform at a high level as reflected in our results. The company's full year same property NOI reached $162,600,000 growing 5% over 2023. This represents our fourth consecutive year of same property NOI growth exceeding 4%. The year over year increase was primarily driven by two seventy basis points in base rent with 150 basis points attributed to embedded rent bumps.

Speaker 3

Additionally, net expense reimbursement contributed approximately 170 basis points with better collections from revenues deemed uncollectible adding 50 basis points. In the fourth quarter, same property NOI grew 7.1% compared to Q4 of twenty twenty three. For the full year, NAREIT FFO totaled 126,700,000 or $1.78 per diluted share, reflecting the increase of 4.7% over 2023. Core FFO rose 4.8% to $1.73 per share year over year. Growth was primarily driven by same property NOI, net acquisitions and slightly offset by G and A and interest expense.

Speaker 3

The balance sheet remains in excellent shape, providing Imitrust with the liquidity and flexibility needed to execute our long term growth strategy. At year end, Imitrust net leverage ratio stood at 23 with our net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 4.1 times on a trailing twelve month basis. Our entire debt structure is now 100% fixed. Our weighted average interest rate was 4% with a weighted average maturity of three point three years. Finally, the Board of Directors approved an increase of 5% in the company's cash dividend for 2025.

Speaker 3

The new annualized rate of $0.95 will be reflected in the April dividend payment. Moving to guidance. We expect our performance momentum to carry forward into the new year. Our full year same property NOI growth guidance is in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% incorporating a bad debt reserve of 75 to 100 basis points of total revenue. This reserve accounts for the recent tenant bankruptcy assumptions as well as ordinary bad debt levels we expect in any given year.

Speaker 3

For an ARIT FFO, we are providing guidance in the range of $1.83 to $1.89 per share, representing a 4.5% increase at the midpoint over 2024. Our core FFO guidance is $1.79 to $1.83 per share, reflecting a 4.6% increase at the midpoint over last year. With expectations for acquisitions and dispositions, our net acquisition assumption is $100,000,000 for 2025. Further details on our guidance assumptions are available in our supplemental disclosure filed yesterday. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Christy to discuss our portfolio activity.

Speaker 3

Christy?

Speaker 4

Thanks, Mike. We remain confident that Inventrust is well positioned to achieve near and long term growth targets. Our Sunbelt portfolio of necessity based retail assets, supported by our experienced leasing and property management teams, continues to deliver strong above average results. We remain focused on maximizing cash flow by optimizing rents, enhancing occupancy and refining the merchandising mix across our centers. With 87% of our NOI coming from grocery anchored assets, we recognize the vital role these tenants play in driving foot traffic to a thriving retail center.

Speaker 4

This dynamic strengthens our leasing leverage and brings additional value to our portfolio. At the time of our listing in 2021, our total portfolio lease occupancy stood at 93.5%. By the end of 2024, we achieved 97.4%, a three ninety basis point increase, highlighting the exceptional quality of our centers and the appeal of our Sunbelt market. Anchor space lease occupancy ended the year at 99.8, matching our all time high achieved last quarter. Small shop lease occupancy finished the quarter at 93.3%, also an all time high for our portfolio.

Speaker 4

Even at these unprecedented levels, our leasing team remains committed to further increasing occupancy, especially in the small shop category. In 2024, we signed two ten leases totaling 1,300,000 square feet. Notable tenants signed in the fourth quarter include Skechers, Snooze and AM eatery and Mendocino Farms. Beyond simply increasing occupancy, we believe that curating the right mix of national, regional and local retailers is essential to creating a dynamic environment that drives tenant sales growth and maximizes leasing spreads for both new and renewal leases. By strategically assembling the best combination of necessity based retailers for each market, we cultivate an atmosphere where tenants can prosper, fueling their success while enhancing our ability to grow rents.

Speaker 4

InventTrust total portfolio ABR ended 2024 at $20.07 per square foot, reflecting an increase of 3% compared to 2023. For the year, we delivered blended comparable leasing spreads of 11.3% with new lease spreads at 16.6% and renewals at 10.6%. Our retention rates stood at 94% in 2024. High tenant retention remains a key element of our portfolio. This dynamic translates to better economics, reducing downtime and significantly lowering tenant improvement costs.

Speaker 4

Additionally, we have successfully embedded rent escalators of 3% or higher in 90% of our renewals, supporting long term NOI growth. Moving to retail news, I want to briefly address the recent store closing and bankruptcies. At Inventrust, we view this as part of the natural life cycle of retail. Disruption and store closures following the New Year are predictable and expected. While store closures remain below historical averages, they may be returning to more normalized levels compared to the last few years.

Speaker 4

As a reminder, our portfolio has one Joann location in Austin, Texas and three party city locations that contribute collectively approximately 60 basis points of ABR. We have no exposure to Big Lots or The Container Store. As Mike mentioned earlier, any expected disruptions or assumed vacancies within our portfolio from distressed retailers are fully accounted for in our guidance. Despite these headlines, demand for high quality retail space remains strong. Supply is still constrained and many retailers are increasing their long term store opening targets in our markets, recognizing the traffic and sales growth these locations can generate.

Speaker 4

We remain confident that any space we recapture presents an opportunity to drive rent growth and further enhance our tenant mix. Before concluding, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating wildfires in Southern California. The widespread destruction and loss are truly heartbreaking. Thankfully, all InventTrust employees are safe, and at this time, our properties remain unaffected. We continue to closely monitor the situation, and InventTrust is ready to provide support to our communities and tenants wherever it is needed.

Speaker 4

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks, and you can open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Torrey Keston with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning. Based on what you've said previously about the likely trajectory of acquisitions this year, the $100,000,000 net investment figure seemed a bit conservative. Is this meant to be, what you're close to closing? I guess, does it assume an acceleration in dispositions?

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Noah, it's a great question. So when we think about 2025, I think we've said this in the past. When we're thinking about our initial acquisition guidance, what we really are trying to message is that we're going to continue being a net acquirer over the course of the year. The pace and acceleration of that really is dependent on our cost of capital.

Speaker 6

You did mention dispositions. We are going through a kind of capital recycling endeavor in 2025 with some of our properties in California depending on when those pricing comes in. We think our California portfolio is probably our most attractive kind of use or cost of capital to redeploy those proceeds into some of the other markets that we've been a little bit more excited about and we've been recently more active in. So within that $100,000,000 you can expect the gross number to be materially higher than that depending on the success of our disposition activity in our California markets.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then your retention rate, I think, was about 94%, ninety five % this year, up from 90% last year. Can you talk through your expectations for this measure in 2025? And then kind of somewhat related, would you expect releasing spreads this year to be comparable to the low teens that you were able to achieve in 2024?

Speaker 6

Yes. Maybe I'll just touch quickly on the retention rate and then I'll have Christy give a little more color on what we're expecting from a spread standpoint. The 94% is probably a little bit higher than what we're expecting

Speaker 2

in 2025 only because

Speaker 6

of the known, exit. So we may have this year as it relates to Party City and to a lower probability that Joanne fabrics. Other than that, we when we think about 25% and beyond, 90% of retention rate is kind of the bogey for us. And that allows us to push spreads and then while also keeping capital costs low.

Speaker 7

I mean, Stuart, I would

Speaker 4

just follow-up on that and say that with respect to the leasing spreads, I think that our current run rate that you've seen over the past year should run similar into 2025. And we should be able the leasing team is focused on continuing to deliver at that rate.

Operator

We now turn to Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

Speaker 8

And congratulations on a great '24. Just thinking about some of the comments and this your discussion around your best use of capital, the dispositions California. What about the balance sheet? I mean, you are under leveraged. I guess, how are you thinking about the balance sheet and using that to grow even faster?

Speaker 6

So Jeff, it's a great comment. Obviously, coming off the equity raise last year, which we found to be pretty opportunistic both just as it relates to what the cost our cost of equity capital was at the time, but most importantly, our ability to go and acquire accretively to use those proceeds and show transparency and quick visibility to the market. Or that's the same recipe that we're planning on using this year. Now as you can appreciate, California, as it relates to our property, we have a phenomenal California portfolio. It's a strategic decision for EventTrust.

Speaker 6

I mean, California retail is core for most shopping center REITs, both public and private. We just have found that we have an opportunity set in some of our other core markets that are going to that look more attractive to us over time. And because of that, we can make a nice little spread on that capital recycling or be get very, very high quality trophy properties in those markets that we otherwise probably wouldn't be able to go after given where our cost of debt and cost of equity capital is if we were to just use the balance sheet. But we are in a position with the capacity on the balance sheet to lever up if the opportunity that presents itself and we'll do that as you saw what we did in the back half of last year.

Speaker 8

Okay. Fair. And then as the company has gotten more aggressive, let's say, on acquisitions, is that changing the conversation, let's say, with owners or sellers? Like, I assume that there's a lot of competition to buy Sunbelt gross anchor centers. Like, how do you think this has changed, let's say, IBG's profile or the ability to do deals versus others?

Speaker 6

No, it's a great question. I think what I would say is, look, it is an extremely competitive environment and we've been successful both on marketed deals, off marketed deals and everything in between. And I think that's been kind of our recipe for success and that's the reason why I think we feel more comfortable and confident continuing to invest all of our energy in some of the markets where we've seen us been active. I would say because of our cost of capital, both with our capital recycling program and then obviously where our multiple is, I think we have an ability to be appropriately aggressive and opportunistic. But it is a competitive environment and we try to fully contemplate that as we think about our ability to be successful over the course of the year.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just to confirm on the same store NOI range of 3.5% to 4.5%, I guess, is it just safe to assume that at the high end you're assuming, let's say, can you continue to move occupancy higher or leasing spreads are even stronger versus the bottom end? Let's say that the bad debt reserve, let's say the 7,500 bps is more towards the 100 bps. Is that fair to say? Or is there anything else to point out on the range of the same store NOI?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. This is Mike. I think you've got it kind of the range from the top to bottom. Really what can move it is uncollectible lease income, the bad debt throughout the year and then just getting tenants kind of in and operating on time. But the big driver would be the uncollectible lease income.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

We now turn to Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

Speaker 7

What is the appetite like for your California assets? Who are the potential buyers? And what kind of cap rate do you apply to those centers?

Speaker 6

Yes. It's a good question, Linda. I would say California has always had a wide campus of buyers, public, private, smaller, even and then certainly some of this larger international sovereign funds. I mean, that's the good and bad thing about California is it's extremely competitive because of the dynamics of that market. So we sold one California asset last year.

Speaker 6

We're in market with several assets currently. The demand has been very, very strong thus far, but nothing signed or executed yet. And we'll watch those. The important thing to note is we don't have to sell anything in California if we don't feel like we can redeploy those proceeds accretively. So if we're not satisfied with the price or the opportunity set, on the buy side isn't as robust as we would hope, We have the ability to kind of slow or accelerate that pace accordingly because the most important thing is that we're moving cash flow forward for InventTrust.

Speaker 6

As it relates to pricing, it's too early it would be too early to kind of comment on what that pricing looks like. But I would say that the goal is to where we're expecting pricing command, it would allow us to be, like I said earlier, appropriately aggressive on trophy properties in markets where we've been more active and at a positive spread.

Speaker 7

And then my second question is for your recent acquisitions, how do you think about the mark to market opportunities in those assets?

Speaker 6

No. I mean, look, I think the one thing that we love about our portfolio in the Sunbelt is that market rents are outpacing our current growth profile. And maybe to give you a little context of that, for instance, we've in any given quarter, we'll have tenants miss an option notice date, in which case, they we get to renegotiate the lease, right? So in I think the most recent quarter in 2024, we had about 23 tenants that missed their option period, in which case they would have probably had an increase in rent between, call it, in the high single digits. We were able to renegotiate those rents at closer to 30% spread.

Speaker 6

It gives us confidence that we're perpetually below market in many of our in most of the portfolio. And that allows us to build a sustainable cash flow model even if there is a slowdown in the economy, we still feel like we're in a good spot. And that's what we look for in our new acquisitions as well. The acquisitions that we tend to buy, it's market rate driven as opposed to any type of significant occupancy or value add upside, I would say.

Operator

We now turn to Floris Van Dijkkem with Compass Point.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks. Interesting, 20 tenants last quarter missed their option periods. Presumably, that was not in your budget and not it's not in your guidance either. Does that seem normal?

Speaker 6

Yes. Let me clarify. It was 23 tenants for the year. So when you think about all the activity throughout the year, it's not that much, but it is a nice surprise when it happens. But it would be very hard for us to forecast a subset of tenants missing their option date.

Speaker 6

If you were to do the percentage, it is it's it's certainly on the lower end. But it does give you an indication of where market rents are relative to, where people are resigning due to due to option.

Speaker 9

So my question that I had before you mentioned the missing the option thing, which prompted another, The cap rates on new acquisitions and one of the things that I find interesting is that I think you're really the only REIT right now that's playing in the town of Southern Charm Charleston, and you've you've got two assets there. Presumably, that means you're the, the returns that you're getting on those assets should be a little bit higher than more heavily trafficked markets like Houston, like Tampa, where a lot of the other REITs are active and a lot of the obviously, the pool of private buyers is bigger as well. Maybe you can talk a little bit about the cap rates and where if you see more opportunities in markets like Charleston and Richmond, which are not as heavily trafficked?

Speaker 6

No. That's actually a it's a good observation, Boris. I would say yes. On a risk adjusted basis, we think markets like a Charleston, like a Richmond, are equally as attractive. And it's a great complement to the Invent Trust portfolio, which tends to be anchored around those larger cities, right?

Speaker 6

So we have spent more time in canvassing the Charleston markets or markets, excuse me, or even markets like Asheville. Certainly, Nashville would be on the larger end. But Knoxville, some of these cities that are very complementary to the markets in which we already operate. And we can be very efficient in those markets. Now I will tell you the criteria in those markets is much more stringent, right?

Speaker 6

In Houston, we can own 10 assets. In Austin, we can own 10 assets. We're not there yet. But the point being, in these smaller markets, we may only get to two, three or four, but we want to make sure that they are in the top quart of assets or retail centers in those markets. So I think the bar is a little bit higher, but the risk adjusted returns and the ones that we've identified are equally or if not more compelling than what we've seen in some of those larger markets where, to your point, can be a little bit more competitive.

Speaker 9

And the cap rates would be or the risk adjusted returns, are they 50 to 100 basis points higher?

Speaker 6

I would say, the former. I mean, look, they're some of the highest quality assets in those markets with great growth profiles. So the initial yields are still going to be in the sixes, but we're still buying. Everything that we look at has to make sense and that tends to be anywhere in the low to mid sevens from a leveraged return perspective.

Speaker 9

And my last question maybe, and I apologize if I'm using up my question here, but wanted to your cost of equity, I mean, you did raise a little bit of equity last quarter. Your stock continues to trade at sort of where consensus has your NAV. I know you have a pretty good balance sheet as it is, but how do you if you see deals that you like and presumably you're scouring the markets, why not raise more equity to fund some of those transactions? Or maybe talk about your thinking on that.

Speaker 6

No, I think it's a good point. And obviously, we're very, very our equity is precious. We want to make sure we're doing it at the right time. And anything we're doing is value accretive for both current and prospective shareholders. But the opportunities that has to match it as well.

Speaker 6

And that's what we were so fortuitous in the back half of last year is that the pipeline, we had deals that were very close to under contract or under contract and had an immediate use of proceeds. Now I'm not saying it has to be matched perfectly like that. But if our cost of equity capital continues to be attractive or get more attractive and we can put those proceeds to use in an accretive manner and leverage our platform faster because the whole goal is to use this platform to grow cash flows faster than other options within the sector. We're going to absolutely do that, but we've got to make sure that we can find opportunities and uses for that capital.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Jay.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

We now turn to Paulina Rojas with Green Street. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. I find Nexon Square an interesting property, an anchored closer to a lifestyle center.

Speaker 6

How

Speaker 7

does pricing for a property like this compares to a traditional grocery anchored center in terms of cap rate? And how do you think about the growth profile on a relative basis and the risk as well?

Speaker 6

Good morning, Pauline. Great questions. You're absolutely right. This is more of a lifestyle type of center. And the reason I say that it's unanchored.

Speaker 6

It doesn't have any traditional grocer or large box spaces. So you can imagine when we look at that, that certainly things we own things like this, but they tend to have some sort of shadow brochure or some box components. What made this particular asset attractive to us was the market, the market in which it's in Nexton, which is up near Somerville. The market is growing very, very quickly and this asset is serving that market and will continue to serve that market as it relates to a lot of the dining options Obviously, there is a different risk profile when you remove some sort of brochure, but it's a really great complement for our portfolio because I think we've discussed with you and many in the past, we tend inventories anchors towards grocery and food centers, mostly necessity based. But we are format agnostic, but we find the risk adjusted returns attractive.

Speaker 6

This is a market driven strategy, not an asset specific strategy or retail asset specific strategy you got to say. So you can see us do things like a next to the square. And you can see us do some things like the Forum, which tends to have a little bit more box, but it's in a market that we really, really like and we got very comfortable with those rents as well. So we're always going to anchor to those necessity based centers, but these are nice complements with different growth profiles and risk profiles that I think complement and fill out the portfolio nicely.

Speaker 7

And in terms of pricing, how does the cap rate for something like this compares to a traditional high quality grocery anchored?

Speaker 6

I would say, let's put a cap rate aside. But when you think about the risk adjusted returns, you can think of it kind of falling in between what you would consider core grocery anchored, and on the low end and then power center. It would be somewhere in between. And obviously, the underwritten rents are going to move that. But when you that's kind of where some these types of centers fall.

Speaker 6

And I will mention, it is on the smaller size of a lifestyle center, which obviously was attractive to us as well. So 130,000 or so square feet, we got comfortable with the tenant mix and the current in place rents.

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