Mirion Technologies Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 12, 2025

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Mirion Technologies Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Operator

It is now my pleasure to introduce Eric Lin, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, sir. Good morning, and welcome to Myeron's fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty four earnings conference call. Joining me this morning are Myeron's CEO, Tom Logan and Myeron's CFO, Brian Schopper. Before we begin today's prepared remarks, allow me to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our annual report on Form 10 K, quarterly reports on Form 10 Q and in Myerion's other SEC filings under the caption Risk Factors. Quarterly references within today's discussion are related to the fourth quarter ended 12/31/2024, unless otherwise noted. The comments made during this call will also include certain financial measures that were not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Reconciliation of those non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix of the presentation accompanying today's call. All earnings materials can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.murion.com.

Speaker 1

With that, let me now turn the call over to Tom, who will begin on Slide two.

Speaker 2

Greg, thank you and good morning everyone. 2024 was an historic year at Marriott. I'm pleased to report record fourth quarter and record 2024 performance as revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share all tops previous highs. Let me offer a big thank you to the Marriott team for delivering outstanding results. Not only did earnings grow, but also the quality of earnings grew as we expanded the adjusted EBITDA margin by 110 basis points for the full year and drove adjusted EPS from $0.34 to $0.41 per share for the year, all through planned operational and commercial actions.

Speaker 2

Importantly, we also delivered on our guidance for the second year in a row. Despite sizable foreign exchange headwinds, our results were in line with or better than our 2024 guidance. We also took significant steps in 2024 to improve our capital structure. In May, we completed the redemption of outstanding public warrants and repriced our term credit facility. In the fourth quarter, all three tranches of our Founder shares fully vested.

Speaker 2

As a result, we entered 2025 with a much cleaner and simpler capital structure. The progress we made in 2024 is supporting momentum carrying into 2025. Firstly, on our current backlog, we are beginning 2025 with a healthy pipeline of new Approximately 49% of our expected 2025 revenue is already in backlog, which compares favorably with the 46% coverage we had coming into 2024. Beyond the back log, our book and build flow business is reflecting the positive momentum in both nuclear power and nuclear medicine that you've heard us detail over the past several quarters. Our business generates a high degree of recurring revenue supported by a strong installed base.

Speaker 2

We are seeing positive developments on the $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 of new order opportunities that we introduced on our October earnings call and I reiterated during our Investor Day in December. It's still early days on these opportunities, but we like where we stand today. Importantly, we've lost none of these projects to date and are seeing additional bidding opportunities materialize. Conversations are maturing as the year gets underway. We hope to have more details to share as the year progresses.

Speaker 2

Secondly, we are poised for growth in 2025. Our business model is built for scale and we expect to take a meaningful step forward in 2025 towards the long range 2028 plan introduced at our Investor Day. Also much of the heavy lifting done in 2024 on self help, particularly in procurement will be better reflected in our go forward results. Thirdly, we are laser focused on capital allocation. We made this clear at our December Investor Day and I continue to be encouraged by the robust pipeline of both M and A and organic opportunities that lay ahead.

Speaker 2

Speaking of our Investor Day, we continue to receive positive feedback on both the strategy and opportunities available to Marion. One of the topics that comes up frequently in follow-up discussions is the category of one position that Marion occupies shown on Panel four. For investors, we are a strong play for nuclear exposure, just a scarcity in the nuclear instrumentation space. Approximately 37% of Marion's twenty twenty four revenue was derived from the commercial nuclear power landscape significantly more than any of our closest competitors. Miran offers investors cradle to grave exposure to the one hundred year nuclear power lifecycle.

Speaker 2

Whether it's today's installed base or new builds or decommissioning events, NewReass solutions are critical to the nuclear infrastructure. And this isn't just hyperbole. We believe fervently that we have a unique angle on the nuclear power market. We're seeing strong global demand today from our installed base, representing more than 95% of all operating commercial reactors worldwide. Operators are eager to invest in their existing reactors to extend the useful life for increased capacity.

Speaker 2

Moreover, new construction is active around the world as profitability dynamics have improved and the need for clean, reliable energy continues to grow. This nuclear power super trend remains strongly intact despite initial concerns around DeepSeek a few weeks ago. Hyperscalers are investing heavily in 2025 to continue building out capabilities and capacity. It is estimated that they will increase capital spending by about 44% in 2025 to more than $320,000,000,000 and they continue to spend on both utility scale and small modular reactors to secure their future needs. Beyond the hyperscalers, the news reflects continued support and growing momentum for nuclear power.

Speaker 2

Some recent examples would include in The UK where the government is expected to give developers more freedom over where they can build new reactors in support of growing clean energy demand. In France, as we've been speculating, EDF plans to prepare six sites for new data centers as AI demand is expected to drive infrastructure investment. In fact, ahead of the recent AI summit, French President Emmanuel Macron indicated more than EUR 100,000,000,000 in AI projects in country. Here in The U. S, President Trump is prioritizing domestic energy sources, including nuclear and South Carolina's Governor recently advocated for reviving their nuclear energy sector, including the previously abandoned VC summer nuclear expansion.

Speaker 2

The hardware, software and service solutions we provide are mission critical to the customers we serve. We are the global leader in 17 of the 19 product categories we provide, thanks to a combination of superior quality and service and a global reach that is unmatched by our competitors. Stated simply, we provide compulsory products to customers in highly regulated industries with high cost of failure.

Speaker 3

Our

Speaker 2

customers recognize our role and their success. We've increasingly formalized strategic alliances across both of our operating segments. For example, in our medical group, we signed a strategic alliance agreement with Siemens Healthineers last year. In nuclear power, we signed an MOU with Electronics Corporation of India, a leader in the Indian market to support the rapid growth of India's nuclear sector. We also signed a strategic partnership agreement with EDF in 2024.

Speaker 2

EDF is the largest operator of nuclear power plants in the world and we're now an exclusive supplier for all of their nuclear new build projects for the next twenty years. Miran is in a category of one for a pure focus on the detection, measurement and analysis of ionizing radiation. This isn't just a tagline, it's what we are to the customers we partner with, to the investors we represent and to the markets we serve. Turning now to the quarter's performance on Panel five. Fourth quarter revenue was $254,300,000 a new quarterly record.

Speaker 2

This performance reflects the demand we continue to see from today's operating nuclear power plants. Approximately 80% of our nuclear revenue historically comes from this installed base. Nuclear reactor operators are investing in their facilities, whether to extend the operating lifetime or expand the capacity of their fleets. Each of these ambitions creates revenue opportunities for Merion. Fourth quarter performance also reflects attractive radiopharmaceutical demand.

Speaker 2

We continue to grow this part of the business as therapeutic nuclear medicine is revolutionizing cancer care. Also, we're increasingly finding new ways to market nuclear and safety products to our nuclear medicine customers. Last year alone, we sold more than $15,000,000 of traditionally industrial equipment to medical customers, representing a 38 increase. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was nearly $70,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA increased 14% compared to the same period last year and margins expanded 90 basis points driven by procurement initiatives and operating leverage. This showcases strong operating performance driven by our businesses, the foundation of our operating activities for more than fifteen years.

Speaker 2

Fourth quarter adjusted EPS was $0.17 a share, a $0.02 improvement over fourth quarter last year. Both fourth quarter and full year 2024 represent continued solid performance. We're executing on the strategy laid out at our Investor Day to capitalize upon our unique position. We see significant market opportunities both organic and inorganic and our growth drivers remain well on track. Now let me turn it over to Brian to discuss the quarterly and full year results.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Tom, and thank you all for joining our call. I'll review the detailed financial results beginning on Slide six. Fourth quarter enterprise revenue grew 10.4% to $254,300,000 compared to the prior year's fourth quarter of $230,400,000 Fourth quarter organic growth was similar at 10.3% as FX headwinds largely offset 0.5% of the inorganic growth. The strong fourth quarter organic revenue performance continues to be driven primarily by growth in nuclear power of approximately 7%, nuclear medicine up an impressive 2114% of dosimetry growth. It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, we had double digit growth in nuclear power giving us a very tough comp that we grew on top of.

Speaker 3

Full year enterprise revenue grew 7.5 to $860,800,000 versus 2023. Organic growth was 6.6% in 2024. This was better than our guidance of between 56%, which we had tightened back in October. As a reminder, we grew over 9% organically in 2023. In the Nuclear and Safety Group, nuclear power activity was up 8.5% in the year, primarily due to strength out of Europe and safety critical products to Korea.

Speaker 3

In the medical group, nuclear medicine was the biggest organic contributor growing 7.5% for the year. We had double digit growth in all quarters for nuclear medicine after the first quarter ERP implementation and are expecting double digit growth in 2025 in this end market. Enterprise inorganic growth was 1%, reflecting the EC2 acquisition completed in late twenty twenty three, offset by the divestiture of the rehab business. Q4 and full year adjusted EBITDA was $69,600,000 and $203,600,000 respectively. We ended the year with six consecutive quarters of margin expansion compared to the same periods in the prior year.

Speaker 3

As mentioned, 2024 adjusted EBITDA was at the high end of our December guidance of between $195,000,000 and $2.00 $5,000,000 and above the original guidance we gave at the beginning of the year. 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.7%. This represents approximately 110 basis points of margin improvement for the year. We're making steady progress towards the 202830% adjusted EBITDA margin target outlined at our December Investor Day. Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share was $0.17 contributing to a full year adjusted EPS of $0.41 The warrant takeout in the second quarter and the Founder's Share vestings during the fourth quarter impacted EPS by only $0.01 for the full year.

Speaker 3

Turning to the Nucleus and Safety Group on Slide seven, fourth quarter segment revenue grew 13.2% to $168,800,000 dollars Fourth quarter organic growth was 13.9%. Organic growth demonstrated continued strength from our nuclear power business, mainly out of the French and safety critical products businesses. This was coupled with good growth across all other end markets we play in. Full year Nuclear and Safety Group revenue totaled $561,100,000 an 8.7% increase compared to 2023. Nuclear related activity from Europe and Korea was a key driver to annual growth.

Speaker 3

Full year organic revenue grew 8.8% beating our expectations of mid single digit plus growth. The two year organic growth stack is an impressive 18.9% in this segment. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA for our Nuclear and Safety division grew 20% to $52,800,000 Adjusted EBITDA margin also expanded by approximately 180 basis points to 31.3%. Strong operating leverage, the beginning signs of our procurement initiatives and better mix are showing through in the results. Recall, this time last year, we were discussing some challenges in our French business.

Speaker 3

I'm happy to say that these are largely behind us as the organization and process changes put in place in 2024 by the team delivered the intended results and this region is back to a more normalized performance. A special thanks to our French colleagues for all their hard work in 2024 to deliver a solid performance. Full year Nuclear and Safety adjusted EBITDA was $159,800,000 or 18% better than last year. Margins were 28.5%, an approximately two thirty basis point increase versus the prior year. Half of the margin improvement was operating leverage with the rest coming from management actions on procurement processes started mid year and our increased focus on factory floor initiatives.

Speaker 3

This helped to offset an increased bonus accrual in the fourth quarter in this segment. Slide eight provides additional details on our Medical segment. Fourth quarter Medical segment revenue was $85,500,000 a $4,200,000 or 5.2 increase versus the fourth quarter twenty twenty three. Organic revenue grew 3.7% in the quarter, driven by our nuclear medicine and dosimetry businesses and offset by our radiation therapy quality assurance or RTQA business. As a reminder, we delivered nearly 10% organic growth in this segment in the fourth quarter last year.

Speaker 3

So comps were tough, particularly in the RTQA business. There were three headwinds in the quarter for medical. Radiation therapy was a headwind to organic growth, primarily driven by China, which impacted total medical revenue by approximately two ten basis points. The purposeful exit of our lasers business was a 110 basis point headwind and we saw an additional headwind for merging our Wisconsin and Virginia during the quarter of approximately 60 basis points. It is also worth noting that we have implemented a new ERP into this combined business in Q1 twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3

Inorganic fourth quarter revenue grew 1.5%, reflecting a partial quarter's impact of the EC2 acquisition. Recall, we closed on the EC2 acquisition in November 2023. Full year medical segment revenue was $299,700,000 or 5.3% higher compared to 2023. The $15,200,000 increase versus full year 2023 largely reflects the full year impact of our EC2 acquisition and growth in our nuclear medicine and dosimetry businesses. Total growth was split roughly evenly between organic and inorganic growth at 2.62.7% respectively.

Speaker 3

2024 was a year of resilience for our medical business. We saw our China RTQA business end the year down approximately 40%. Without this headwind, our medical group would have grown approximately 5% organically. Combining this with the closure of the lasers business, you would have seen the medical business grow approximately 5.5% organically for the year. As I know some of you are still new to the story, the lasers business was a money losing product line and will be an addition by subtraction as it is exited.

Speaker 3

Turning to EBITDA, Medical Group adjusted EBITDA was $33,200,000 in the quarter, a 6.1% increase compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 30 basis points to 38.8. Full year adjusted EBITDA was $104,600,000 with margins improving by 50 basis points to 34.8%. In Medical, in the fourth quarter, we saw a large bonus accrual release, which partially offset operating inefficiencies from our Wisconsin and Virginia move coupled with some mix headwinds. Now turning to the order book and backlog starting on Slide nine.

Speaker 3

Before we jump into the full year view on orders, let's make sure we touch on how we did in the fourth quarter. With a reminder that we were comping a 30% order growth number from the fourth quarter twenty twenty three. Orders were up 6% in the quarter over the fourth quarter last year. That number when adjusted for currency and M and A is actually up approximately 6.8%. If you normalize for the noise on the new builds in the quarter and last year's fourth quarter, Q4 orders were up roughly 5%.

Speaker 3

I realized that is a lot of moving parts, but regardless, it was a good quarter recognizing we also saw some things slip out of the year that we had expected to close. As you know, large orders tend to be a bit lumpy in our business. That is what we attempted to illustrate on the slide to provide insight into the underlying orders dynamics. On an annual basis, after adjusting for large orders and a one time de booking, as already mentioned in the third quarter, the underlying 2024 adjusted order book grew by approximately 3%. This reflects the strength of the book and bill business.

Speaker 3

Slide 10 summarizes our backlog trend. Fourth quarter backlog was $812,000,000 After adjusting for the strength in the U. S. Dollar in the quarter and the previously mentioned Turkey debooking, our adjusted backlog was approximately flat compared to the same period last year. As Tom mentioned, the current backlog gives us visibility to approximately 49% of the midpoint of 2025 revenue guidance is ahead of where we were at this time last year.

Speaker 3

Next, on the balance sheet and free cash flow on Slide 11. As a reminder, 2024 was a busy year for us. We improved that leverage by another half turn, removed the warrants from our capital structure, fully vested all three tranches of Founder shares and refinanced the debt. We ended 2025 with 2.5 times net debt to trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA, slightly better than our anticipated 2.6 leverage guide on our third quarter earnings call. This represents almost a full two turns of deleveraging over the past two years.

Speaker 3

As we detailed at our Investor Day, aggressive deleveraging has bolstered our financial strength and sets the stage for further M and A in 2025. M and A is in our DNA and we're in the process of evaluating several compelling opportunities. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $53,000,000 and $65,000,000 for the full year. Full year adjusted free cash flow was in line with guidance. Our adjusted free cash flow conversion for the year was 32% of adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 3

We are not satisfied and continue to see opportunities to accelerate and bring forward our free cash flow conversion in 2025 and are committing to a 50% increase to adjusted free cash flow in 2025 at the midpoint of our guide. There are a few moving pieces to adjusted free cash flow, so let's spend a few seconds on each. First, adjusted free cash flow was negatively impacted by higher CapEx. Based on the high end of the range at the beginning of the year, we spent a bit more on CapEx than we anticipated. This was primarily due to our dosimetry badge launch and continued investments in our e commerce and software platforms.

Speaker 3

These investments are meant to speed up adoption and growth. Although software is still a small piece of the total business, we are expecting to see double digit revenue growth next year in our medical business specifically and look forward to updating you on our progress during the June. Additionally, we are committing to an approximately 18% reduction in CapEx in 2025 from 2024. Second, net working capital is a use of cash versus a source of cash expected. Net working capital operating days did reduce by about nine days and our inventory reduced by approximately $7,000,000 on an FX adjusted basis.

Speaker 3

Conversely, cash taxes were better by $14,000,000 versus initial guidance of $37,000,000 But there is some timing impact of cash taxes in 2024 versus 2025 equaling about $6,000,000 that we will end up seeing in 2025. We did make headway, but not as much as we hoped. Opportunities lie ahead. To summarize 2024, we delivered on both our initial guidance and the latest guidance and posted another year of record performance. We're continuing this momentum into 2025 and feel increasingly confident in the 2025 guidance we unveiled at our December Investor Day.

Speaker 3

Slide 12 reconfirmed our 2025 guidance and also includes adjusted EPS guidance of between $0.45 and $0.5 per share. Our adjusted EPS guidance assumes an effective tax rate of between 2527%, materially down for 2024. We are modeling cash taxes of approximately $40,000,000 and an average share count of approximately $227,000,000 shares. The 2025 share count increased versus 2024, mainly due to the Founders shares vesting in the fourth quarter and the taking out of the warrants in the second quarter. This is a $0.05 per share headwind to our adjusted EPS guide in 2025 due to these two factors.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, adjusted EBITDA and margin guidance is between $215,000,000 and $230,000,000 dollars and 24.525.5% respectively. We expect to see adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in every quarter during 2025. Total revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be between 46% and includes an approximately 190 basis point foreign exchange headwind. Organic revenue growth is expected to total between 5.57.5%. In 2025, we expect the organic growth rate to build as the year goes on peaking in the third quarter and normalizing in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 3

Lastly, adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $85,000,000 and $110,000,000 Adjusted free cash flow conversion is expected to be between 3948% of adjusted EBITDA and we will continue to see a better quarterly cadence. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank Our first question is from Chris Marr with CJS Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking a couple.

Speaker 5

Good morning,

Speaker 4

Chris. Good morning. Just start with where Brian, the EBITDA margin improvement each quarter, so normally the third quarter in the last few years has not been it's been down a little bit. So we're saying that Q3 is better than Q2 this year. I just want to make sure I hand that correctly.

Speaker 3

Yes. What I'm actually talking about is each quarter over the prior year quarter.

Speaker 4

Got it. Fair enough. That makes more sense. Got it. Awesome.

Speaker 4

Given the changing dynamics in the whole nuclear power space, how are you thinking about nuclear as a percentage of Marriott total revenue over time?

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, I'll take that. The interesting thing is that we noted that in 2024, nuclear represented about 37% of our total revenue. If you take a midpoint of our guidance and kind of look forward in 2025, that number grows. But in the face of what is clearly a very, very durable trend as it relates to the growth in nuclear power, spurred on not only by the discussions about hyperscaler, but a number of other key themes. I think there's an increasing sense of scarcity value in and around exposure to nuclear, because it's not a space where there are a lot of highly investable opportunities.

Speaker 2

And so within that, given that factor and also given the fact that candidly valuation multiples have really broadly equilibrated between medtech and nuclear power, For us, that really just encourages us to continue to take a very balanced approach as we look at both organic growth opportunities and inorganic growth opportunities. So I think the net effect of all of that is that our exposure to nuclear continues to increase at its core because the as we've guided, nuclear power is growing at upper single digits. It's outgrowing the company as a whole. But beyond that, if you're to look through again our pipeline of both organic and M and A opportunities, it is rich with nuclear power related stuff. So I think at the end of the day, there's an opportunity for us to drive up that percentage.

Speaker 4

Got it. Very helpful. Maybe just last one for me. Lots of talk on nuclear side. What are the biggest wildcards in 2025 for medical?

Speaker 2

I think there are a couple. Right now, Brian articulated very clearly, we've been talking about this for a while, that the biggest headwind that we faced in medical last year was in the Chinese market, where because of the continued tail of the anti corruption activities that's had a fairly significant impact on med tech in general, but certainly the build out of new radiation therapy clinics. Many of the leading OEMs in the space had projected that that would reverse last year, it did not. But to be clear, our guidance is or what's embedded in our guidance for the year is no improvement in the Chinese market. So that would be wildcard number one is that if we do see a reversion back to what had been the mean in terms of growth in RTQA in China, that could be upside.

Speaker 2

I think another significant wildcard would relate to the conflict in Ukraine that if we see an accelerated settlement and to be clear, I think talks are absolutely going on right now in a variety of dimensions. But if we were to see settlement of that conflict earlier in the year, and by that I mean, call summertime, then there's an enormous need for effectively a Marshall Plan like approach to rebuilding Ukraine and some of that will involve the many nuclear power plants in the region. So as and when that conflict settles, we think there will be an opportunity for us to be part of the solution in terms of helping to rebuild Ukraine. And then beyond that, presumably with conflict resolution, there is some pathway to normalization of trade between Russia and The U. S.

Speaker 2

Under any circumstances, we don't really see that happening this year. But as that dynamic improves, that might open things up a bit more. I guess the final thing I would say would relate to to just kind of the macro picture overall and that would include the combination of yield curve dynamics, foreign exchange dynamics, tariff dynamics, etcetera, which can go either way. But I think we've taken a neutral to conservative approach on all of those things to the extent we see any favorable movement there obviously that could help us with.

Speaker 4

Very helpful. Jump back in line. Thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 3

Hey Joe.

Speaker 6

And thanks for the clarification on the 4Q organic orders plus seven on a plus 30 comp. That's pretty good. Congrats on the end of the year. I guess maybe my first question is just on this book and bill flow business that is growing fairly steadily. Tom, can you just maybe just kind of talk to us a little bit about the near term opportunity and what you're hearing more specifically around that business?

Speaker 2

Yes, I'll talk qualitatively and then invite Brian to kind of fill in the gas show overall. But fundamentally, this is what we've been talking about for the better part of the last two years that given the fact that the core nuclear power related exposure we have relates to the installed base. So that's about 80% of our nuclear power revenue, which in turn is just under 40% of our total revenue. There's a significant dynamic there where as the base continues to become more profitable, it drives fatter capital spending budgets, it drives fatter operating budgets. And that also, particularly as we get into outage related season or outage season in spring and fall, drives some very short order cycle business.

Speaker 2

And so I think what we saw last year was the continued improvement in that core dynamic where we saw an increase in that general flow business, much of which was driven by the core health in nuclear. But it's not just there. We also saw a pickup in certain elements of our medical business, most strikingly in nuclear medicine, where the very nature of what we sell there is characterized by shorter order cycle times. And so there again, we saw a favorable dynamic that helped drive the cadence there.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that's all right. I think what was encouraging to us specifically in the fourth quarter is we kind of saw it in both regions, both in Europe and also in North America. And I think the North America business had been a bit slower on the nuclear side in the first half of the year. And I think that's encouraging to us, Joe.

Speaker 6

Got it. That's helpful guys. And then I wanted to touch on that EDF announcement, the $100,000,000,000 in tendering for new AI driven data centers. I'm just curious, I know obviously this is a longer term opportunity just given the strategic partnership that you guys have. Ultimately like what does this mean for you guys like and then is there any way to kind of think about a timeline on when you start to see some orders associated with this?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it really builds off the just the incredible dynamics that we have in that market overall and a very important longstanding relationship with EDF. The most important factor, Joe, is the, again, this strategic deal that we signed last year where we effectively are the sole source supplier for certain content for the next one to two dozen EPR reactors built both inside of France as well as on an export basis. That's important obviously from an overall long term growth standpoint. But as with the broader dynamic that we talk about with the installed base, EDF a year ago had a very tough time because of widespread outages related to a variety of operational issues that they had as a firm. They've recovered from that.

Speaker 2

They continue to move through that recovery. And I think what this AIDeal presage is overall is the notion that you're going to see continued strength in capital spending into their installed base of more than 50 reactors in France. That uptime will be ever more critical. The capacity factors will be ever more critical. That the potential up rates will be ever more critical.

Speaker 2

And I think all of those things will adhere to our benefit, again, just given the strength of the relationship that we have and cherish with EDF.

Speaker 6

Great. If I can maybe sneak one more. Tom, you gave kind of some color on potential swing factors as we progress through the year. I'm curious, I didn't hear you talk about what's going on with The U. S.

Speaker 6

And Doge and ultimately what that potentially could mean for your defense business. Just any color around that and how you guys are thinking about the range of outcomes there?

Speaker 2

Yes. There are two big wildcards there that we obviously expected a question. On. One would relate to tariffs and we can come back to that. And the other is just relating to overall budgetary dynamics.

Speaker 2

In our view is that if you look at really the government sources of funding and revenue For us, it's principally in two channels. So it's DOE related, which is largely focused on laboratory equipment and remediation services and capital equipment at big sites like Oak Ridge and Savannah River and other places. And then secondly, it is and I should note as well the SMR development sponsored by the DOE as well. And then secondly, it's the Department of Defense. So it is the military spending on a variety of programs that we support and some that we hope to support in the future.

Speaker 2

Right now, every indication is that as we look at the new head of the new Energy Secretary, but also the changes within the DoD, our view is that notwithstanding the Doge efforts to root out waste and fraud and inefficiency, Overall, we don't expect that to in any way kind of jeopardize the core relations, the core dynamics that we see in that realm. So right now, we're cautiously optimistic that not only do we continue to again service the contracts that we have today, but we hope there's some upside in the year. The other thing to note too on the tariff dynamics is that we've taken a hard look at what our aggregate exposure is from a general trade flow standpoint. Understand that as a company, about 50% of our commercial sales are outside of The U. S.

Speaker 2

But if you look at the matching effectively the organic hedging between our production activities and our commercial activities, it's very strong. There's a very strong natural balance there. And so if you look at the areas where we expect to see the greatest tariff exposure bilaterally, it would be Canada, Mexico, China and the EU overall. And if you aggregate all of those, again, bilaterally going both ways, so the gross number, not a net number, that total represents about 13% of our revenue overall. So it's a considerably smaller exposure than you might assume just given the international footprint of the company and the international flows.

Speaker 2

But there when you think about it more deeply, we're obviously trying to get ahead of any potential tariff activities and do everything we can do, understand the basis, the dynamics, the timing, all of those factors. But we're also trying to take a much more comprehensive view that it's not just about tariffs, it's also about FX, it's about tax differentials, particularly in corporate income tax that may widen. It's about terms of trade and ultimately longer term our ability to continue to kind of defease the threat of tariffs by shifting our supply chain to narrow that differential even more. So right now, huge array of unknowns in and around what the tariff impact could be. I would put forth though that our view is that our exposure is probably less than many might infer given the international footprint of the business.

Speaker 6

Super helpful. Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Our next question is from Vlad Bostrzycki with Citigroup. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my call here. So maybe I'll start off with just a follow-up. Hey Brian. Maybe just a follow-up on Joe's question around Doge and government expenditures and potential impacts there.

Speaker 7

Obviously, you talked about it on the nuclear side, but is there on the nuclear medicine side, any risk of reimbursements impacting providers' willingness or ability to invest in your product suite?

Speaker 2

Yes, we don't think so, Vlad. On the nuclear medicine side, last year, we talked about how certain CMS reimbursement codes relating to very expensive diagnostic agents that are part of this overall theranostic movement had been approved, which effectively creates a stronger degree of incentive and momentum in that area of the business overall. The other important and so we expect that dynamic to continue. We don't expect the new administration to come in and have any kind of immediate and material impact on how CMS thinks about reimbursement codes in nuclear medicine. The same would be true for radiation therapy, where there's an ongoing dynamic relating to the entire tableau of reimbursement codes that is just kind of endemic within the business.

Speaker 2

Again, we're not anticipating any material changes there in the year ahead that would be driven by the new administration and or Doge specifically.

Speaker 7

Great. That's helpful, Tom. Appreciate it. And then maybe just circling back to $300,000,000 to $400,000,000 pipeline of larger one time orders. Just any color you can give on how you're thinking about the timing of those starting to come through whether we could see a good portion or all of those booked by year end 2025?

Speaker 7

And then just what are some of the gating factors for those orders to go forward as you talk to your customers?

Speaker 2

There's really not a lot of change there other than what we noted last quarter when we announced this and provided this context is that we indicated that these opportunities would likely trade in the main over the subsequent five quarters, that continues to be the case. So we're just a quarter down on it overall. The changes that we've seen are that I think the opportunity set has broadened as it relates to these large in some cases quite large projects. We're working very hard on all fronts. We haven't lost a deal yet.

Speaker 2

We like where we sit, but the inherent nature of large projects, particularly large nuclear projects, is that the timing is

Speaker 3

hard to

Speaker 2

pin down in terms of trying to bucket things in a particular quarter. And so we continue to hold to that guidance. So we expect that the core of these opportunities will trade over the balance of 2025. We hope to get our share or better of this set like where we sit today.

Speaker 7

Appreciate that Tom. I'll hop back in queue.

Operator

Our next question is from Yuan Jie with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Tom, Brian, congrats on a record quarter and thank you for taking our questions. I have two questions, if I may. First, I'm curious about the timeline for you to restart business in Russia and Ukraine once the piece is brought back to the area, the timeline for both nuclear medicine side as well as the nuclear power side?

Speaker 2

Yes. So the our view there, Johan, is that the timeline will be obviously dictated by settlement terms overall. And our view is that there is a real need, particularly as it relates to nuclear power related instrumentation in both markets, in both Ukraine and Russia. We would assume again, this is a hypothetical and we're all speculating, but we would assume that Ukraine opens prior to normalization of trade with Russia. And we're ready, willing and able to do whatever we can do whatever is required to not only help shore up the existing nuclear infrastructure, but we also expect that when pending conflict resolution that there will be significant newbuild activity really characterized by Western reactors in Ukraine.

Speaker 2

And of course, we hope to participate in that as well.

Speaker 8

Yes, got it. The second question is around regulation updates in The U. S. I'm curious what are you hearing from your customers? For example, we have new DOE secretary in the office.

Speaker 8

We have states such as Texas and Arizona who welcomes nuclear power. There are some state level legislation and initiatives. Just want to hear what you are hearing from customers.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, what we're hearing is excitement that again, if you look at just the blizzard of announcements, so we just touched on a few reminders today, but there the favorable announcements as it relates to nuclear power and in this instance, specifically just in The U. S, has been incredible over the course of the last year. Really the new news is discussion of the potential resuscitation of the VC summer plant that we mentioned in our prepared remarks, which is a two reactor Westinghouse AP1000 unit that would be great, obviously, very pro nuclear. Governor Abbott in Texas has been very clear that he wants Texas to be the epicenter of an American nuclear renaissance characterized by creating a really favorable environment for the development, the growth of SMR applications.

Speaker 2

But beyond that utility scale as well. And our view is that there will be a number of other favorable movements. We expect the Duane Arnold power plant in Iowa will be brought back to life at some point similar to 3 Mile Island. And we expect the regulatory environment to be very pro nuclear. Importantly, the incoming Energy Secretary is an energy guy overall and oil and gas strong oil and gas background, but he also happens to sit on the Board of Oklo, which is the Sam Altman SMR play.

Speaker 2

And so obviously knows a great deal about nuclear power. And I think one can infer that is pro nuclear. And so at both the federal level, as well as the state level, we see continued support. I think really the key issue is the posture of the NRC and other regulators in terms of to what degree do we see a greater move toward streamlining regulation, particularly as it relates to new designs and new builds. So we can potentially cut years off the timeline and really kind of accelerate for this kind of hoped for by the administration and by us American nuclear renaissance.

Speaker 3

Yes, got it. That's very helpful.

Operator

Our next question is from Shivan Shirvais with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning guys. Shivan on for Rob. Just kind of wondering here on your 2025 guide, you kind of outlined 80 to 200 bps of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Can you just provide some color on where that growth is coming from? Is it gross margin, OpEx leverage or and just in either case, is there particular parts of the business that will be driving that growth?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, look, we I think it's consistent with what we talked about on our Investor Day. Operating leverage continues to be our best friend. We believe all the work we've done on the procurement side will absolutely continue to come through and show through. The Wisconsin, Virginia move will begin to show up in the P and L results for sure.

Speaker 3

So I think it's a good mix of operating leverage, procurement and a number of self help things, including the work we're seeing on the factory floor. Look, I think from a modeling perspective, I think we're modeling a bit more margin expansion in medical than tech than in the nuclear and safety business. But I think we're as we did this year, we're pretty optimistic about what we think the art of the possible is in nuclear safety. So I think it's broad based, and it's consistent with our discussions in December.

Speaker 5

Got it. Got it. Okay. And if I can get another one in, if you guys could speak to any early traction to your Siemens Health and Years relationship and kind of how that's factored into your outlook, that will be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, we obviously are in the early days of the Siobhan with and just as a reminder to the listeners of the call, the deal we've entered into basically carries more of our product, particularly our industry leading workflow and data management software product called SunCheck in the RTQA space, radiation therapy quality assurance space. It essentially carries that into the price book of Siemens Healthineers. And what that means is a practical matter is that their global sales force is featuring that as their core RTQA software platform of choice. It's a brand new effectively a brand new deal.

Speaker 2

And we've been working very, very closely with Healthineers to train their sales team and really kind of help gin up momentum. But to be clear, we've assumed almost nothing in terms of incremental traction coming out of this this year. To the extent that we see a meaningful amount of commercial traction occurring from this relationship, the strategic alliance, then we would view that as upside.

Speaker 3

Yes. And I would just remind you in my comments, we talked about double digit growth on the software side in medical specifically. So that's a good kind of underlying base case for the business. Anything Tom just talked about will grow on top of that.

Speaker 5

Got you. Got you. Okay, that's helpful. I'll hand it back.

Operator

With no further questions in the queue, I would like to turn the conference back over to Myriad's CEO, Tom Logan.

Speaker 2

Well, I'd like to end today by thanking again the Myriad team for delivering record year performance. Just super, super proud of the achievements this year and the momentum that my many colleagues have ginned up to carry us into 2025 and beyond. These collective efforts really are the heartbeat of this business. To all on the call today, appreciate your participation. It's my view that we're well set up for success.

Speaker 2

Our foundation is strong. Market dynamics continue to be compelling. We think 2025 is shaping up to be another year of growth and continued performance evolution in the business. And I do believe the market is increasingly understanding the unique attributes of our company. Again, the fact that we are the only pure play on the detection measurement and analysis of ionizing radiation, a category of one, as we like to say.

Speaker 2

And that coupled with the vertical market exposure we have and really kind of the attractive diversification benefits inherent in that, I think make us a really interesting company to watch. The color we provided at our Investor Day in December really is shaping the narrative and I'm excited to continue the dialogue with many of you as the year progresses. So appreciate your attention today and we'll look forward to speaking to you in the next quarter. Good day.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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Earnings Conference Call
Mirion Technologies Q4 2024
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