Corebridge Financial Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 13, 2025

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's Corbridge Financial Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Call. My name is Seb, and I'll be the operator for your call today.

Speaker 1

I will now hand

Operator

the floor over to Ishil Mudarasoglu to begin. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Corbridge Financial's earnings update for the fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty four. Joining me on the call are Kevin Hogan, President and Chief Executive Officer and Elias Habayev, Chief Financial Officer. We will begin with prepared remarks by Kevin and Elias, and then we will take your questions. Today's comments may contain forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and are based upon management's current expectations and assumptions.

Speaker 2

Forbridge's filings with the SEC provide details on important factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Except as required by applicable securities laws, Corbridge is under no obligation to update any forward looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change. And you are cautioned to not place undue reliance on any forward looking statements. Additionally, today's remarks may refer to non GAAP financial measures. The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at investors.corbridgefinancial.com.

Speaker 2

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Kevin and Alliance for their prepared remarks. Kevin?

Speaker 1

Thank you, Ishil, and good morning, everyone. Since our IPO two years ago, Corbridge has consistently generated strong top line results and bottom line growth, delivered on commitments and made great progress executing our strategy. We are capitalizing on favorable industry dynamics and attractive market opportunities while navigating persistent inflation, volatile markets and the prospect of lower interest rates. This success is a testament to our leading market positions, diversified business model, strong balance sheet and disciplined execution. Turning to Slide three.

Speaker 1

At the time of our IPO, we established several financial goals to chart our performance as a new public company, achieve an adjusted ROE of 12% to 14%, a payout ratio of 60% to 65% and maintain a light sleep RBC ratio at or above 400%. These initiatives have been supported by our efficiency program, CoreBridge Forward, with the further goal of reducing our run rate expenses by $400,000,000 I am pleased to report that we met or exceeded each of these goals while positioning Corbridge for long term success and establishing financial and operational independence. We grew run rate ROE over 300 basis points firmly landing within our range of 12% to 14%. Strong top line growth, margin expansion and lower expenses combined with the investments we made in our operating model positioned us to capitalize on historic opportunities. We also improved our quarterly run rate operating earnings per share by 35% with approximately two thirds of that improvement from earnings growth and one third from capital management.

Speaker 1

For payout ratio, we exceeded the original target by a significant margin. Since the IPO, we delivered a cumulative payout ratio of 73% returning $4,900,000,000 to shareholders over that time, an amount equaling 36% of our market cap at the IPO. And we repurchased 14% of our outstanding shares over that same period. Importantly, we actively maintained strong financial flexibility while delivering robust growth in our businesses. In terms of expenses, we achieved or contracted on $400,000,000 of run rate savings ahead of schedule with $350,000,000 earned into date.

Speaker 1

Over the last two years, we reduced expenses by 13% on a comparable basis. As a result of this work, our expense ratio is in the top quartile across our industry and we remain diligently focused on further improving our operational efficiency. Finally, we have consistently demonstrated financial discipline. Our regulatory capital levels have exceeded the 400% target as we proactively manage our high quality assets and liabilities while maintaining strong parent liquidity. Moving to slide four, we have built a solid foundation since the IPO and 2024 was another successful year for Corbridge.

Speaker 1

I will review our full year results and Elias will cover the fourth quarter. In 2024, Corbridge increased full year operating earnings per share by 18% year over year to $4.83 We grew ROE to 12.8% and on a run rate basis, ROE improved over 100 basis points year over year to 13.2%. At the same time, in 2024, we returned $2,300,000,000 to shareholders. Additionally, excluding notable items and the sale of our UK life insurance business, we grew core sources of income by 4%, seeing improvement across all three sources. Corbould achieved these positive results through our focus on four strategic pillars, organic growth, balance sheet optimization, expense efficiencies and active capital management.

Speaker 1

To drive organic growth, we worked with our extensive network of distribution partners and leveraged our broad suite of products and services. Our businesses continued to thrive as we fulfilled strong customer demand. We delivered robust sales volumes in 2024 with premiums and deposits of $41,700,000,000 a 5% increase over what was a very strong 2023. Our distribution platform remains an important differentiator for Corbridge. We have for many years taken a long term approach to our distribution partnerships, which has created active, productive and long lasting relationships.

Speaker 1

The insight we have into our partner strategies is key. With this insight, we can more effectively meet the needs of their clients and manufacture products that align with their business plans, giving us the opportunity to compete beyond price. Customized products and specialized strategies have been essential to our success and represent an important part of our product development emphasis. With the fourth quarter launch of our MarketLock Registered Index Linked Annuity or Ryla, Corbridge now has offerings in every major product category. We are proud of our broad product range and recognize the value of choice for financial professionals.

Speaker 1

Our second pillar is balance sheet optimization, which includes strategic use of reinsurance, strong asset origination and proactive management of our portfolio of high quality assets and liabilities. We launched our Bermuda affiliated reinsurer strategy in July and began seeding fixed and fixed index annuity new business. By year end, we added both in force and new business for structured settlements and term life. In total, we have ceded just over $12,000,000,000 of reserves to our affiliate in Bermuda. Relative to asset origination, our unique investment platform, which includes our own internal teams and our external partners, LatStone and BlackRock has been instrumental in sourcing attractive high quality assets.

Speaker 1

These investments support our target returns and product management and collectively we sourced over $43,000,000,000 of assets in 2024. We continue to develop new and expanded asset strategies and maximize the value of our strategic partners. This work has improved credit quality while enhancing income and yield also supporting increased levels of new business volume. Our third pillar is expense discipline. We are very focused on expense management and operational efficiency.

Speaker 1

And in 2024, core bridge delivered with full year GOE lower by 4% over the prior year on a comparable basis. Looking forward, we see more opportunity as we further digitize end to end processes that support our insurance operations and begin to build on the significant investments we made as part of our separation process to further modernize our finance and actuarial capabilities. Our fourth strategic pillar is active capital management. In 2024, we increased full year dividends from our U. S.

Speaker 1

Insurance subsidiaries by 10%, supporting a full year payout ratio of 81 or 62% excluding proceeds from the sale of UK Life. CoreBridge is proactive with balance sheet and capital management to ensure we deliver on our financial goals while also pursuing profitable growth and creating financial flexibility. Reflecting the strength of our financial position and our continuing commitment to an attractive return for shareholders, I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors increased the existing share repurchase authorization by $2,000,000,000 and increased the quarterly dividend to $0.24 per share. CoreBridge will continue to build on these four pillars organic growth, balance sheet optimization, expense efficiencies and active capital management to generate further growth and shareholder returns. As we look ahead, we expect our annual run rate EPS to increase on average in the range of 10% to 15% over the long term, but this growth will not be linear.

Speaker 1

In some years, the increase may be higher and in others lower. Based on current expectations for short term interest rates, we may see some pressure during the year as we manage our floating rate portfolio, but we view this as only temporary. Additionally, as we look ahead, we expect dividends from our insurance companies to increase another 5% to 10% in 2025. And now, I will hand it over to Elias to cover our fourth quarter results.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Kevin. I will begin my remarks today on Slide five. The fourth quarter was a continuation of our strong performance since the IPO fueled by organic growth, balance sheet optimization, expense efficiencies and active capital management. Corbridge reported fourth quarter adjusted pre tax operating income of $878,000,000 or operating earnings per share of $1.23 an 18% increase year over year on a per share basis. Our operating EPS included one notable item this quarter resulting in an unfavorable impact of $0.02 Details can be found in our earnings presentation.

Speaker 3

Annualized alternative investment returns were $0.03 short of our long term expectation. This reflected positive trends across traditional private equity, hedge funds and real estate equity as returns improved in 2024 with activity slightly picking up in the second half of the year. Adjusting for notable items and alternative investment returns, we delivered a run rate operating EPS of $1.28 an 11% increase year over year on a comparative basis. Moving to Slide six. The diversity in our sources of income allows Corbridge to consistently deliver attractive financial results under different market conditions.

Speaker 3

Core sources of income excluding notable items grew four percent year over year driven by increases in fee income and underwriting margin. Fee income, which comprises approximately 30% of our core sources of income improved 10% as a result of higher account values along with our growing advisory and brokerage business. On a comparable basis, underwriting margin improved 22% driven by more favorable mortality experience. Base spread income declined 5% from the strong levels of the previous year, driven by the impact of net outflows in our group retirement business as well as the impact from changes in short term interest rates and related hedging activities to maintain alignment between assets and liabilities. The sequential decline was in line with the interest rate sensitivity we shared last quarter.

Speaker 3

We anticipate the impact of changes in short term interest rates along with the related hedging activities and the runoff of our floating rate portfolio will only be a near term headwind. Underlying base spread income continues to be strong, driven by general account growth and higher new money yields. Overall, ForeBridge continues to fire on all cylinders and the combination of our diversified market leading businesses working together continues to be a key component of our shareholder value proposition. Before moving on, I want to spend a moment on highlights from each of our businesses. For purposes of this discussion, results exclude the impact of notable items, variable investment income and the sale of our international life business.

Speaker 3

In individual retirement, adjusted pretax operating income declined 7% year over year primarily driven by base spread compression, arising from the impact of changes in short term interest rates and related hedging activities on floating rate asset exposure. Strong sales in the quarter reflected pricing discipline and the $5,000,000,000 of premiums and deposits represents another very good quarter. Our broad product suites allows us to fulfill not only growing customer demand, but also evolve with changes in customer appetite serving as a meaningful differentiator. General account net inflows of $1,600,000,000 in the fourth quarter further demonstrate the value of our origination capabilities, product portfolio and distribution network. Full year net inflows were $6,900,000,000 nearly double the level achieved in the prior year.

Speaker 3

The fixed annuity surrender rate dropped to 9.7% for the quarter as surrenders continue to improve from their peak earlier in the year. We expect to see our surrender rate increase in the coming year with large lots of fixed and fixed index annuities exiting their surrender charge period. That said, we expect continued net inflows in the general account from individual retirement. Group retirement delivered another steady quarter through its balanced contribution from spread and fee income. Both spread and fee income will continue to reflect the impact of net outflows and asset values.

Speaker 3

Advisory and brokerage sales grew 31% year over year supported by strong customer demand and favorable equity market performance while out of plan annuity sales in the current quarter mirrored broader industry trends. We saw net outflows of $3,500,000,000 in the fourth quarter due to planned losses and required minimum distributions by planned participants. Excluding these two items, net flows remain relatively stable throughout the year. Looking forward, we expect first quarter group retirement net flows to be more consistent with levels observed in the first half of twenty twenty four. Life insurance continues to be a strong performer.

Speaker 3

Adjusted pretax operating income increased more than 100% year over year, primarily driven by more favorable universal life mortality experience. Sales volume continued to outpace the industry as a result of strong product positioning, investments in our digital and automated underwriting capabilities and expanded distribution. In institutional markets, adjusted pretax operating income was virtually flat year over year. As a reminder, earnings from this segment may reflect some quarterly volatility, but core earnings should increase as reserves grow over time. Full year earnings increased 17% in line with reserves.

Speaker 3

We continue to grow our FADM program as a disciplined but consistent issuer and continue to see an attractive pipeline for pension risk transfer transactions in the coming year. Our financial results for the quarter demonstrate the benefits of multiple sources of income as well as our ability to improve expense efficiency while also growing the balance sheet. From the end of twenty twenty two, the cumulative improvement in our operating expenses was 13%, primarily driven by efficiencies from core bridge forward. On a year over year basis, fourth quarter general operating expenses for our insurance businesses and parent company were modestly lower after excluding the sale of our International Life business and the one time notable item. This largely was the result of savings from our expense efficiency program offset by costs attributable to sales growth as well as some non recurring and seasonally higher expenses.

Speaker 3

Moving to Slide seven. Borbidge remains well capitalized with strong liquidity. We ended the year with holding company liquidity of $2,200,000,000 This includes approximately $1,000,000,000 of proceeds from debt issuance in September and November that prefunds our upcoming maturities in 2025. Our disciplined and proactive balance sheet management has enabled corporates to pursue profitable growth while delivering on financial and capital management goals. Our U.

Speaker 3

S. Insurance companies distributed $550,000,000 in the fourth quarter, bringing full year distributions to $2,200,000,000 a 10% increase year over year. At the same time, we returned $527,000,000 of capital to shareholders during the quarter, including nearly $400,000,000 of share repurchases. Dollars 1,800,000,000.0 of share repurchases for the full year includes proceeds from the sale of our UK life insurance business, which we have fully deployed. Corbridge continues to target a 60% to 65% payout ratio for 2025.

Speaker 3

Our strong balance sheet, which saw asset growth of 7% year over year, continues to reflect a clean in force portfolio backed by high quality assets. We estimate our life fleet RBC ratio to be in the range of 420% to 430% as of the end of twenty twenty four. In conclusion, our diversified business model, strong balance sheet and disciplined execution should continue to lead to growing cash flows, earnings and financial flexibility, which strengthen our franchise and ultimately increase shareholder value. With that, I will now turn the call to Isha.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Elias. As a reminder, please limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up. Operator, we are now ready to begin the Q and A portion of the call.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from KV Monterzari of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you. My first question is on base spread income. As it stands today, it's probably not unreasonable to think that the Fed is done cutting rates and could remain on hold throughout the year. With that in mind, how should we think about base spread income in the first half of twenty twenty five versus the second half when we lapse the lagged impact of the 2024 rate cuts, which you previously mentioned take about two quarters to earn in?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, KV, and good morning. First, what I would say is that across the board, the business conditions remain excellent. Our distribution platform is very strong and vibrant. And all of our businesses are supported by macro trends.

Speaker 1

So we expect our spread income as well as our other sources of income to grow over time, notwithstanding some of these short term impacts of the rate reductions. We provided our sensitivity to SOFA rates last quarter and our results are consistent with that sensitivity. And let me unpack it a little bit. When the Fed cuts rates, right, it creates short term headwinds and spread income and spreads as the floating rate assets reset. And this impact generally earns in over two quarters, like you said.

Speaker 1

Some resets are within thirty days, most are within 90 of the day of the cuts. So it does depend to a certain extent when the cuts occur how those earn in. I'll also add most of the effect is in our individual retirement segment as these floating rate assets are used to align the ALM profile with our liabilities that are beyond their surrender charge period. And so we saw the sequential impact in the fourth quarter, which was around $30,000,000 And as we earlier stated, our individual retirement spreads also reflect some marginal single digit spread compression as the new business cost of funds are lower than the in force cost of funds. And of the 18 bps of sequential compression, most of it was due to resets.

Speaker 1

So once the flow to reset cycle earns through, we do expect spread income to continue to grow because the new business conditions, including margins, are very supportive. And we expect to continue above all to enjoy positive net flows in the general account, further supporting our future growth in spread income and are confident in achieving our financial objectives and growing not only the spread income but our other sources of income and increasing our earnings per share over time.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And my follow-up is on the EPS growth target of 10% to 15% that you mentioned. What is the baseline EPS we should be using for 2024 for that? Like, should we just use the reported one external items and normalizing for VII?

Speaker 3

Hey, KB, it's Elias. Yes, I would go with the reported EPS going forward. As Kevin said in his comments, we expect to grow it on average 10% to 15% per year, twenty five percent will be on the lighter end of that given the earn end of the actions the Fed has already taken into consideration. But I repeat, we've got four levers on how we're going to deliver the growth in EPS, whether it's organic growth, balance sheet optimization, continued focus on expenses and capital management. So those levers that brought us to here have more upside, and we're confident in our ability to continue to grow EPS going forward.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Scott at Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. First one I have for you is on the cash flow. I think you mentioned that you expect some growth off of the subsidiary dividends, the hold code that you had in 2024 as we look into 2025. And so I just wanted to if you could help us think through the components of that. I mean, the spread compression is a little bit of a headwind, but what are some of the things that are benefiting cash flow, whether it's Bermuda or other things?

Speaker 3

Hey, Alex, it's Elias. So there's different variables that contribute to the cash generation in the insurance companies. And part of it is the diversified revenue sources we have and that's contributed to stability in the cash flow generation over time. We're also focused on expenses and reducing expenses in the business units. And then what Bermuda does, it's another tool in our capital management toolkit that gives us financial flexibility to make sure we deliver on our capital management objectives while creating capacity to grow the business and allow us to grow earnings and cash flows over time.

Speaker 3

So the combination of those things gives us the confidence in increasing the dividends from the insurance companies while continuing to grow the business.

Speaker 5

That's helpful. Thank you. And just on the pillar that you kind of talked about with the capital optimization, now that Bermuda, I don't want to say fully behind you, but it sounds like a lot of the work's been done there at this point. I mean, where does your focus turn in terms of what's next on work that's being done there? Are you still exploring potential third party reinsurance?

Speaker 5

Are there other things you can do internally? I'd just be interested in any color there.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks. I mean, there's a couple of different levers relative to balance sheet optimization. We've done a lot of work in the asset portfolio, but there continues to be some additional opportunities there. As you've pointed out, I mean, reinsurance is another lever that we have available.

Speaker 1

We have been working a lot on Bermuda as an extension of our capital management toolkit. In the mid year, we started seeing the fixed annuity and indexed annuity new business. And towards the end of the year, we added our first in force transaction as well as new business on structured settlements and term life. But we still have further opportunities both for in force and new business sessions, and we continue to evaluate opportunities there. While we focused on Bermuda in 2024, we continue to evaluate potential external transactions, some discussions further along than others, and we continue to evaluate all options in the interest of driving shareholder value.

Speaker 1

And then the other thing I would say on balance sheet is we do expect VII to recover to our long term expectations of 8% to 9% this year, albeit the back half of the year is going to be stronger than the first half based on our expectations.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Ryan Krueger at KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to come back to the EPS growth because I think, I just want to make sure we get 2025 on the right basis with your expectations. So, I guess given the spread pressures that I know are near term in nature, but I guess to me it would seem logical that your EPS growth would be less than 10% in 2025. I know you said lighter end, but I don't want to get in a situation where we all assume 10% and then consensus is too high.

Speaker 6

So can you give any more clarification on how you're thinking about this?

Speaker 3

Yes, Ryan. And I want to clarify also my response to KV. We're looking at what's our core EPS. That's what we're targeting for growth. Right now given the current outlook, we do think EPS will grow.

Speaker 3

It will be less than 10%. There are a number of dynamics. As you mentioned, spread income, but that's only like 50% of our revenue sources. There's a short term impact in the front part of the year. But if you look at our fee income and the underwriting margins we have, we do see favorable conditions for those to grow in 2025.

Speaker 3

And as Kevin said around VII, we are based on the current outlook, we do expect it to recover close to our long term expectations and we're focused on reducing expenses and we're also focused on returning capital to shareholders. So collectively, that will grow EPS, but we do think it could be lighter than 10%.

Speaker 6

Sorry to belabor this, but the starting point, I think you reported 4.83%. Is that or should we be normalizing for both notable items and lower VII? Or what's the right basis?

Speaker 3

No, that would be the right basis. So adjust the VII performance as well as adjust for notable items.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then just on can you expand on the potential for further expense efficiencies? I think and how meaningful you're thinking that could be over the next several years?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks. I mean, first of all, what I'd say is that we have the other $50,000,000 on core bridge forward that's going to earn in throughout the course of the year. And our current focus is on the our data, our actuarial and finance and applying digitization and automation capabilities across the business. On a same store basis, we are looking to reduce our unit costs over time.

Speaker 1

We don't have any particular targets to announce at this point relative to expenses, but we continue to work through our opportunities and plans and do expect to increase our expense efficiencies over time.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Elyse Greenspan at Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on individual retirement. You guys highlighted that surrender rates would increase over the coming year. Can you just give a little bit more color about expectations there for Q1, but even throughout 2025?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Elyse. Good morning. Look, our experience surrender rates reflect where market interest rates and credit spreads are at any given time. Also pointing out that these are the same factors that reflect in new business volumes.

Speaker 1

And we have not seen anything in the last several cycles of surrender rates that were outside of our expectations in this respect. And we do expect that surrender rates going forward will continue to reflect that. Certainly in the fourth quarter, based on the conditions there, we saw lower surrender rates than we have experienced in some time. What I will point out is there's a natural growth in our portfolio. We've consistently been growing indexed annuities for basically a decade.

Speaker 1

And the last couple of years, fixed annuity growth has been several has been strong for several years. So that will impact the volume of product exiting the surrender charge protection, but not necessarily the surrender rates. Those surrender rates are going to reflect where the new business conditions are. And what I would say right now is that the current environment and expectations are that new business conditions are very supportive. The margins are attractive.

Speaker 1

And we continue to expect our general accounts and spread income will grow over time. And also I'll point out spread income is just one of our sources of income. And we're also expanding our portfolio such as most recently with the launch of our RYLA product, which is off to a great start. So the surrender rates will reflect where market conditions are, but our portfolio has been growing over time. So the amount of surrender and the amount of product exiting surrender charge protection, that's what's expected to increase over time.

Speaker 7

And then my second question on capital return. Is the baseline expectation just that you'll be within the 60% to 65 target in all of the four quarters of the year? And then, given that we're almost done with core bridge forward, I'm assuming should we just think about whole co cash obviously adjust for the $1,000,000,000 of debt? Think about what you want to have on hand as kind of annual needs, thinking about interest and dividend or is there anything else we need to consider?

Speaker 3

No. Happy. Hey, Elyse, it's Elias. So with respect to the first part of your question on capital return, the baseline right now is 60% to 65% over the course of the year. And as you see, we've been other than for deploying The U.

Speaker 3

K. Proceeds, we've been pretty consistent over the course of 2024. In terms of the HoldCo liquidity, we ended the year at $2,200,000,000 We had about $1,000,000,000 in for we prefunded for 2025. Putting that aside, we were still in a very strong position. And our philosophy is to hold cash equal to the parent's needs for next year, which includes debt service as well as parent expenses, which are coming down, as well as for the dividend, which is different than what others might do.

Speaker 3

We prefund the full year dividend from it. So the philosophy around how much liquidity we need to hold at the parent hasn't changed. That number has come down as we've worked through all the one time expenses the parent was covering.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Joel Howitz at Dowling and Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning. So the life results were strong in the quarter and for the full year. I guess can you guys just mention how favorable mortality was both in Q4 and for 2024? Just trying to get a better sense of how sustainable these levels of earnings are in Life.

Speaker 3

Joel, it's Elias. So listen, we've been working on improving the performance of our life business and that's kind of coming through our numbers. Our run rate is we think is in the 110 to 120 range on a quarterly basis on basis, with the exception of the first quarter where seasonally we expect mortality to be higher by about $15,000,000 maybe $20,000,000 But I think the new run rate for us is you should be thinking around $110,000,000 to $120,000,000 a quarter other than the first quarter for the Life business.

Speaker 8

Great. That's helpful. And then just shifting to the new RYLA product. Can you just provide us how much that contributed to sales in the fourth quarter? And any color on expectations for sales contribution in 2025?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Joel. So we've observed RYLA as an increasingly important product in the market as seen in the fourth quarter when it looks like sales for the first time exceeded traditional variable annuity sales across the market. In our case, we're very pleased with the RYLA launch so far. I would point out that some of the largest states have yet to come online and some of our largest distribution partners won't come online until first quarter or later in the year.

Speaker 1

But the response has been excellent. By year end, we had already received over $90,000,000 worth of applications. And so we came into the first quarter seeing strong momentum as some of our larger distribution partners are now coming online. And so we feel this is a very good start and we are looking forward to continuing to report our progress. We do expect over time that we will attain our sort of national market share in this product alongside our other products.

Speaker 8

Makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Suneet Kamath at Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks. On the, surrenders in individual retirement, is there any way that you can help us size what you expect might happen in 2025? And are the spreads on that business pretty consistent with the overall segment? Or are they different one way or the other?

Speaker 1

So, yes, look, as I had pointed out, we do believe that the surrenders are going to reflect what market conditions are at a given time in interest rates and credit spreads. So at this point in time, we're not really projecting any dramatic difference from the conditions that you would read into the forward curve. In terms of the increase in volumes, it's an incremental increase in volumes, but that also we expect is going to reflect the increase in the overall earnings in the portfolio. So it's impossible to predict what ultimate conditions will be, but we're comfortable with the fact that we're going to be able to continue to grow the general accounts and grow spread earnings over time once we get through the impact of the rate resets. Yes.

Speaker 1

Suneet, if

Speaker 3

you look at twenty twenty four, we had higher surrenders, but we had strong sales. And the net influence of the general accounts was about $7,000,000,000 for the year, and we grew the general accounts and individual retirement by 9%. Looking into 2025, the fundamentals in this business and individual retirement, as Kevin said, are very strong. So even though we may have higher surrenders, we're expecting strong inflows into the general account for 2025. We expect to grow spread income in the business.

Speaker 3

Once we're past earning in the 100 basis points rate cut, we expect spread income to grow. The fundamentals in that business are very strong, whether you want to look at market conditions, you want to look at the demographic conditions. And this fourth quarter, had it not been for the rate cuts, spread income would have grown sequentially. So we're bullish on the business. It's an important source of business for us and we expect it to be continuing to grow and delivering strong results going forward.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay. And then on the fixed annuities, it looked like on a sequential basis your sales were down a decent amount more than the industry. Just wondering if that was if there was anything unusual going on there, maybe more of focus on Ryla or something else from a pricing perspective? And would you expect fixed annuity sales to grow in 'twenty five relative to 'twenty four?

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Suneet. I mean, we price very dynamically relative to where market conditions are. Normally, we replace our fixed annuity business on a weekly basis. And there were there are micro cycles through the course of the quarter that reflect where our pricing may be relative to others.

Speaker 1

Often when rates are increasing certain parts of the curve, we can price ahead of that. And likewise, when rates are coming down, we can price ahead of that. And that's, I think, what you saw in the fourth quarter. The conditions our strategy is to focus the capital where the risk adjusted returns are the most attractive at a given point in time. And so we saw very strong outcomes in the fixed index annuity in the first quarter.

Speaker 1

So it's not a matter of anything other than reflective of where we believe the competitive pricing was. We see a very robust environment for fixed annuity still, and it continues to be a very valuable product. There's a whole new range of advisors that have discovered the importance of fixed income like products as part of a long term retirement savings asset allocation, and we see that trend continue. And as I pointed out and as Elias reinforced, new business conditions right now appear excellent. So we expect momentum coming through the year.

Speaker 1

And we do expect that we'll continue to focus our capital where the risk adjusted returns are the most attractive.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Jack Mattson at BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Just a follow-up on the base spreads. In individual retirement, they fell 18 basis points sequentially. I think sensitivity you gave last quarter implies something maybe closer to 10 basis points given the number of rate cuts so far. I guess the remainder, was that just from the new business cost of funds impact that you mentioned or anything else you'd call out?

Speaker 10

How would you expect base spreads to trend moving forward, excluding the impact of short term rates?

Speaker 3

Jack, it's Elias. So the three basis points impact from rate cuts we gave on the last quarter was for the full company. So with the floating rate exposures concentrated in individual retirement, you got to multiply that by two, just given the denominator is almost half the total company denominator. So you've had 100 basis points worth of cuts, let's ignore December, if you just go through November, that would imply 18 basis points of reduction in base yields and individual retirement if all three cuts fully earned in. Now they didn't all fully earn in given timing and the timing of resets.

Speaker 3

But what we're seeing is the majority of the 18 basis point compression in the base spreads in individual retirement is coming from the impact of the rate cuts as well as the impact of us reducing our floating rate exposure. And if you look at the investment portfolio, we reduced our floating rate exposure from about 8% to 6% in the portfolio at the December through a combination of additional hedging or just a natural runoff of the book from it. So the margin compression was small and kind of in line with our expectation when you think in terms of base spreads this quarter.

Speaker 10

That's helpful. And just a follow-up on capital generation. Is the 5% to 10% growth rate a good proxy for kind of a longer run growth that you would expect? I guess for 2025, is the outlook at all impacted by sales levels? Like if sales moderated this year, would that potentially drive kind of better near term cash flows with less new business strain?

Speaker 3

So listen, there's different variables that influence how much capital we generate. Sales, the profitability of the business, all those are variables. We're very disciplined in how we manage our balance sheet and how we allocate capital, giving priority to maintaining a strong balance sheet and delivering on our capital management objectives. And we look at the capacity to support new business in there, which is important to continue investing in the company to grow earnings and cash flow over time. As a baseline for the next couple of years, five percent to 10% increase in the annual dividend is a kind of a fair assumption right now.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from John Barnidge at Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Looks like, institutional markets businesses had some good funding agreement distribution and pension risk transfer continues to have some volume. And your pipeline commentary seemed upbeat on that. So can you talk about how the impact of some of the industry litigation is impacting your opportunity or the volumes in the market?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, John. I'm not going to comment a lot about it. I think that the insurance industry is very well positioned with the mechanisms that it has to protect policyholders. Fundamentally, some of these lawsuits seem to be challenging that element of the regulatory mechanism of the insurance industry.

Speaker 1

We haven't seen any impact whatsoever relative to the pipeline and the willingness of planned sponsors to transact. As you pointed out, we have since the time of the IPO committed to being a more regular DIC issuer, and we expect to continually incrementally grow our GIC and our FABN portfolio. And we continue to be disciplined but optimistic about our pension risk transfer business, both in The U. S. And The U.

Speaker 1

K, where the pipelines are very strong, the conditions remain supportive and clients appear prepared to transact.

Speaker 11

Thank you. My follow-up question, sticking with institutional markets. Do you view ASR capital regime change in Japan as an opportunity for corporates to participate in? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Well, it's a significant development for the market there. And if you look at other markets that have introduced similar solvency regime, that certainly has created opportunities. And we do believe that there are opportunities that we can explore. Our Institutional Markets business is in a good position to engineer and risk manage large transactions and expanding our position as a reinsurer beyond The U. K, where we focused on the pension risk transfer market is certainly an opportunity that we're exploring.

Operator

Our next question is from Tom Gallagher at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Good morning. The elevated expense in individual retirement on DAC amortization and non deferrable insurance commissions. Can you talk a little bit about what's happening there? And do you expect this sort of elevated level to continue into 2025?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, Tom, it's Elias. So the commission on is a good expense. It's because we're growing the business. And so that should be viewed as sort of a run rate going forward.

Speaker 3

And on the DAC piece, it's a combination of tied to volume as well as a sensitivity to rates with a significant rise in like long term rates in the fourth quarter. There's an acceleration in the amortization on it. But none of these items have any impact on our ability to grow EPS or deliver a 12% to 14% ROE or deliver a 60% to 65% payout ratio. I look at it as a growth component, that's a good thing. We're growing the business.

Speaker 12

No, that makes sense. The I guess my follow-up is, can you quantify the FA and FIA blocks that are exiting surrender charge in 2025? Can you tell us the amount, the AUM amount of those? And do you as those come off surrender, presumably they're lower crediting rates. Do you try and aggressively defend those?

Speaker 12

Do you look to raise crediting rate to try and do you have like an ongoing retention program? Or is it just, you let them play out as they will?

Speaker 1

Well, Tom, we've been in the fixed and indexed annuity business for a long time consistently. And managing the economics of new business versus crediting rates on the in force is an extremely important part of our analysis and management of this business. And actually, earlier in the interest rate cycle, we talked about this quite a bit. I mean, we look at the economics of increasing crediting rates on the portfolio versus the attractiveness of relative new business. Even surrender rates when they're 10% or 12% or 14% to increase crediting rates, you're essentially paying the other 86% of the portfolio or 88% of the portfolio in order to protect 12% or 14% of it.

Speaker 1

And so we do factor into the economics what our crediting rate strategies are. In terms of specifically retention type strategies, I mean, we have to be cognizant of the fact that the advisors that we work with are focused on the best interest of their customers. And so it's really maintaining a competitive position on new business and managing the liquidity necessary to support the surrenders is the management element of the behaviors that we're most focused on.

Speaker 12

And then the size of those?

Speaker 3

So listen, we're not providing kind of details on it. The dollar amounts will increase, but Tom, what's more important is the net flows and we expect the net flows in the business to be very strong for 2025. You saw what happened in 2024. There was roughly $7,000,000,000 of net inflows, and we expect $2,025,000,000,000 dollars to be another strong year and continue to grow our individual retirement business.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Wes Carmichael at Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning. Thank you. On group retirement, you had a couple of lumpy outflows in the quarter. Seems like core flows ex those was relatively in line with your expectations. But are you aware of any more of those into 2025?

Speaker 11

I think you said nothing really in the first quarter, but anything longer term.

Speaker 1

There's a fair timeline between when we learn of large account decisions to consolidate or move to another provider. And we'll continue to provide a heads up when we have large accounts that we have learned, have made a decision that results in a surrender and an outflow for us. What I would point out is that whilst we had some large surrenders and outflows in the fourth quarter, the bulk of those assets were group mutual fund assets, which have a lower immediate impact to earnings. And it's important to monitor the sort of spread based versus fee based assets. And that's why we provide that disclosure in the financial supplement.

Speaker 1

Not every dollar of outflows is equal. And we continue to grow our out of plan and advisory brokerage base in this business, and it continues to be a very attractive contributor to our portfolio over time.

Speaker 11

Okay. Got you. And regarding the Blackstone relationship, can you just update us on how much Blackstone is currently managing in the general account? And any perspective on how you view the yield uplift net of expenses on that portfolio on a relative basis?

Speaker 1

Yes. The Blackstone partnership is very productive, and the origination continues to be very attractive. It's helped support some of our new business sales and our new money rates. The book value at the end of the year is about $69,000,000,000 in assets. And in the third quarter, they originated just under $4,500,000,000 with a coupon of just under 6.6%.

Operator

Thank you. This now concludes the Q and A session. So I will hand the floor back to Kevin for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Before we end the call, I want to welcome our new partner, Nippon Life. We look forward to working with Nippon and exploring how we may collaborate and learn from one another. I also want to take a moment to thank our many partners who helped us deliver another strong year. And finally, I would like to thank everyone at CoreBridge. All of you worked so hard to achieve our success, while at the same time living out our larger purpose to make it possible for more people to take action in their financial lives.

Speaker 1

Operator, you may end the call.

Operator

Thank you all for joining today's Corbridge Financial fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. You may now disconnect.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Corebridge Financial Q4 2024
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads