Waters Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good morning. Welcome to the Waters Corperation 4th-Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call.

All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session begins. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr Casper Chuda, Head of Investor Relations. Please go-ahead, sir.

Caspar Tudor
Head, Investor Relations at Waters

Thank you, Danny. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Waters Corporation 4th-Quarter Earnings Call. Today, I'm joined by Dr Udit Batra, Walter's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Amal, Senior Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer.

Before you begin, I will cover the cautionary language. In this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of the company. We will provide guidance regarding possible future results as well as commentary on potential market and business conditions that may impact Waters Corporation over the first-quarter of 2025 and full-year 2025. These statements are only our present expectations and actual events or results may differ materially. Please see the risk factors included within our Form 10-K, our Form 10-Qs and the cautionary language included in this morning's earnings release.

During today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly-comparable GAAP measures are attached to our earnings release and in the appendix of the slide presentation accompanying today's call. Both are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

Unless stated otherwise, references to quarterly results increasing or decreasing are in comparison to the 4th-quarter of fiscal year 2023. In addition, unless stated otherwise, all year-over-year revenue growth rates and ranges given on today's call are on a comparable organic constant-currency basis.

Finally, we do not intend to update our guidance, predictions or projections, except as part of a regularly scheduled earnings release whereas otherwise required by-law.

Now, I'd like to hand the call over to Udit to deliver our key remarks. Amor will then present a more detailed overview of our results and guidance and then after we'll open the phone lines for questions.

Over to you, Uda.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Thank you, Casper, and good morning, everyone. We delivered an excellent finish to 2024 in the 4th-quarter, achieving high single-digit constant-currency revenue growth and low-teens adjusted EPS growth. In pharma, which is our largest end-market, sales grew low-double-digits.

Before diving into the details, I want to thank my colleagues at Waters for their resilience, innovative spirit and collaboration. This fuels our strong sales performance and operational achievements as we accelerate the benefits of pioneering science.

Throughout the year, our message has remained clear and consistent. We're executing well in an analytical instruments and systems market that is beginning its recovery. The innovation in our revitalized portfolio is well-aligned with customer unmet needs at a time when instruments are ripe for replacement. Our focus and leadership position in downstream, high-volume life science applications has earned us a unique exposure to an exciting mix of fast-growing, high-volume testing opportunities. This includes GLP-1 testing, PFAS testing and the genetics market in India.

Today, I'm pleased to share the latest proof points that demonstrate our favorable position right at a time when a recovery in customer capex spending and instrument replacement is beginning to kick into gear. I expect this strength and momentum to continue into 2025, and we will cover this later in the call.

Turning now to our results. In the 4th-quarter, sales grew 6.4% as-reported and 8% in constant-currency. Sales exceeded the high-end of our guidance range as growth accelerated across all our three reported regions. Instruments grew 8%, outpacing our expectations as LC, mass pack, light scattering and TA system sales each grew high-single-digits or better. Recurring revenues grew 9%, also marking an improvement from the previous quarter with chemistry and Service both up high-single-digits. We continue to build momentum delivering a high-teens quarter-over-quarter revenue ramp while funnel activity remains strong.

We also achieved outstanding results within our P&L. With our sustained focus on operational excellence, our non-GAAP earnings per share was $4.10, reflecting 13% EPS growth. Excluding the impact of FX, our adjusted EPS grew 22%. On a GAAP basis, EPS was $3.88.

Turning now to the full-year, sales were flat as-reported and in organic constant-currency as our quarterly growth performance improved every quarter. Recurring revenue grew 6%, once again underscoring the unique resilience of our recurring portfolio across various market conditions. With a strong EPS result in Q4, our full-year non-GAAP earnings per fully-diluted share was $11.86. This reflects 1% growth and includes a 5% decline due to foreign-exchange headwinds. On a GAAP basis, EPS was $10.71 per share.

Breaking out our results in more detail, we saw strong broad-based growth in the 4th-quarter. Strength was led by our pharma and academic end-markets, both of which grew double-digits. In pharma, sales grew 10%, led by low double-digit growth in Europe and Asia and high-single-digit growth in the Americas. In particular, spending amongst large pharma, contract manufacturing organizations and generics customers continued to recover where our revenue is tied to-high volume regulated QA/QC applications. In our segments, sales grew 6%, led by low double-digit growth in Europe, mid-single-digit growth in Asia and low-single-digit growth in the Americas. We saw strong growth in the A&G segment across Asia, including China, Japan and India as well as in Europe. By geography, Europe grew 11%, Asia 9%, America 6%. In China, overall sales returned -- returned to positive growth in China and was up low-single digits. Although all together, these results reflect excellent momentum into the year end.

I would now like to share more in-depth -- more in-depth commentary on what drove our strong performance. With our commercial focus and disciplined execution, we continue to deliver impressive outcomes driving like-for-like pricing gains. We also capitalized on the success of our new product launches, achieved strong placement of our new flagship products that command a price premium due to their unmatched benefits in solving customer unmet needs.

Within LC, Alliance IS has paved the way for smarter, more capable liquid chromatography separation that minimizes user errors. In the 4th-quarter, sales more than doubled quarter-over-quarter. Alliance IS constituted 20% -- 20% of our HPLC revenue in the 4th-quarter after adoption continued to scale throughout the year. Within mass spec, the TQ Absolute system remained our best-selling mass spectrometer with its market-leading sensitivity and sustainable design. In the 4th-quarter, unit sales grew 40% year-over-year and constituted 50% of our Tandem quad revenue. As a reminder, tandem are the most suitable mass specs for high-volume quantitative measurements in compliant settings. The Zevo TQ Absolute has been a key driver of the strong results we've achieved in PFAS testing and in clinical applications.

Our PFAS revenue grew over 40% in the 4th-quarter and for the year. PFAS testing is a $400 million global market, growing at 20% annually. So this represents growth at approximately twice the market for the second consecutive year. For clinical, total clinical revenue grew low-teens in the quarter, driven in-part by strong sales of the IVD version of the TQ Absolute. Within our chemistry consumables business, our newer column launches aimed at separating larger, more complex molecules like biologics and novel modalities continue to perform ahead of expectations. Max Premier columns sales grew over 30% in the quarter and over 40% for the year. With success of our new column launches, our exposure to higher-growth large molecule applications has risen. Large molecule applications are now approximately 40% of our pharma chemistry revenue and growing.

Our service -- our service team has continued to make strides in increasing plan attachment. For the first time, over 50% of our active installed-base has a service plan in-place. SDI recently recognized our service team for delivering the highest service satisfaction scores among all instrument vendors. At the same time, our Net Promoter scores lead the industry according to technology and Services Industry associations.

During the quarter, our unique exposure to new high-volume testing drivers also contributed to our growth. This includes novel therapeutic areas such as GLP-1 testing, PFAS testing applications in food and environmental testing and the expanding generic drug market -- generic truck market in India. All three represent a compelling growth opportunity for Waters based on our leadership position in downstream high-volume life science applications. In 2024, we performed very well against our growth expectations in each of these areas. In the near to mid-term, we continue to expect 30 basis-points annual average growth accretion from both GLP-1 testing and PFAS testing while India is expected to add 70 to 100 basis-points to the growth.

Now, I will talk more about our operational performance. Our team faced numerous margin challenges throughout the year, including FX, inflation and the normalization of annual incentive compensation. Despite a rapid strengthening of the US dollar during the 4th-quarter, our unwavering focus on operational excellence allowed us to counteract the currency headwinds. We achieved a 60 basis-point increase in adjusted operating margin to 35.5% after absorbing 220 basis-points of FX impact. Offsetting currency and macroeconomic headwinds is something our team has gotten very good at. For the full-year, we achieved year-over-year adjusted operation -- operating margin expansion, closing the year at 31%. This is after absorbing 130 basis-points of FX-related impact.

As we look-ahead, while no two macroeconomic environments are the same, instrument down-cycles have historically been followed by an upcycle as the new instrument replacement cycle emerges. During these uptrends, instrument growth has typically been 2% to 3% higher than the long-term average of 5%. Currently, our instrument growth sits at 2% on a five-year CAGR basis versus 2019. This comes after weak macroeconomic conditions put temporary constraints on customer capex spending for downstream instrumentation in recent years. The growth catch-up opportunity from this deferred instrument replacement is beginning to kick into gear.

Meanwhile, in the longer-term, we expect the average growth rate of instruments to actually trend higher than the historical 5%, driven by higher-volume trends, new application areas like large molecules and better pricing dynamics. Together with the progress we've made in our high-growth adjacencies, Waters is well-positioned for an exciting new era of growth as the analytical instrument market continues to recover. This also coincides with the launch of a new wave of commercial and value-creation initiatives that we look-forward to discussing in detail at our upcoming Investor Day.

I will now cover the 2025 full-year guidance. Customer spending has shown steady signs of recovery in analytical instruments, particularly in the downstream high-volume settings that we serve. We expect these positive trends to continue into 2025. Our team continues to execute well with our revitalized portfolio at a time when instrument replacement is beginning to pick-up. Together, our resilient recurring revenue growth and the ongoing impact of our idiosyncratic growth drivers, we anticipate continuing our strong momentum into 2025. These dynamics support full-year 2025 constant-currency sales growth guidance of 4.5% to 7%.

Within the P&L, the recent strengthening of the US dollar introduced additional foreign-exchange headwinds. Nevertheless, we plan to counterbalance these impacts with robust operational performance, sustaining our margin expansion -- margin expansion trends into 2025. This translates to a full-year 2025 earnings per fully related diluted share guidance of $12.70 to $13. On a non-GAAP basis, this is a 7% to 10 -- this is a 7% to 10% growth versus our 2024 versus 2024 and includes an estimated headwind of approximately 4% due to unfavorable foreign-exchange.

Now, I will pass the call over to Amol to cover our financial results in more detail and provide further details on our guidance. Amol?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Thank you, Udit, and good morning, everyone. In the 4th-quarter, we delivered a strong finish to the year. Sales of $873 million grew 6% as-reported and 8% in constant-currency as both instruments and recurring revenues grew high-single-digits. With our strong commercial execution and new product portfolio, we benefited from budget flush as overall sales ramped-up $132 million or 18% quarter-over-quarter. This was meaningfully higher than the mid-teens ramp assumption in our guidance.

In constant-currency terms by end-market, pharma grew 10%, industrial grew 2% and academic and government grew 16%. In pharma, sales grew 12% in Asia, 10% in Europe and 9% in Americas. Instruments sales grew high-single-digits, led by liquid chromatography as deferred customer spending continued its early stages of recovery. In industrial growth was led by our TA division, which also grew high-single-digits amid strength in batteries, advanced materials and chemical testing. Within our waters division, we continued to see strong growth in PFAS-related applications, which grew over 40% in the quarter. In Academic and government, the strong performance was driven by 35% growth in Asia and 20% growth in Europe. Within Asia growth was broad-based. By geography, each of our three reported regions saw significant growth acceleration versus the prior quarter. Europe grew 11%, Asia grew 9% and Americas grew 6%, each with broad strength across our end-markets. In China, sales returned to growth up low-single digits. By-products and services, instruments grew 8%, reflecting broad strength across our instrument portfolio, including LC, mass spec, light scattering and TA. In recurring revenue, chemistry grew 7% and service grew 9% as customer activity remained strong with high utilization of our installed-base. Our robust growth has been supported by our commercial initiatives in areas such as service plan attachment, e-commerce adoption and launch of our new columns.

Turning now to full-year results. Sales of $2.96 billion were flat as-reported and flat in organic constant-currency terms. By end-market, pharma grew 1%, industrial was flat and academic and government declined 7%. By geography, Europe grew 2%, while Americas and Asia both declined 1%. Asia ex-China grew high-single-digits, while China declined low-double-digits as expected. By-products and services, instrument growth rates recovered throughout the year and declined 7% overall. Recurring revenues grew 6%, reflecting the resilience of our chemistry consumables and service businesses.

Now, I will comment on our 4th-quarter and full-year non-GAAP financial performance versus last year. During the 4th-quarter, the US dollar strengthened significantly. With our focus on operational excellence, including pricing, productivity and cost management, we were able to offset the impact. Gross margin was 60.1% for the quarter and 59.4% for the full-year. Excluding FX, gross margin expanded 60 basis-points and 80 basis-points, respectively. For the quarter, adjusted operating margin expanded 60 basis-points to 35.5%. For the full-year, adjusted operating margin expanded to 31% after absorbing 130 basis-points of adverse FX impact as well as the normalization of annual incentive compensation.

As we look-ahead, we are well-positioned to continue our margin expansion journey through our productivity initiatives and take our profitability to new heights. Together with better-than-expected sales volume, our strong operational performance drove 13% growth in non-GAAP earnings per fully-diluted share to $4.10. This landed at the high-end of our guidance range even with an FX headwind that was $0.23 greater-than-anticipated. On a GAAP basis, EPS was $3.88. For the full-year, non-GAAP EPS grew 1% to $11.86. This includes a decline of approximately 5% due to foreign-exchange headwinds. On a GAAP basis, EPS was $10.71. Our effective adjusted operating tax-rate was 16.9% for the quarter and 16.4% for the full-year. Our average share count was $59.6 million for the quarter and for the full-year.

Turning now to free-cash flow, capital deployment and our balance sheet. We define free-cash flow as cash from operations, less capital expenditures and excludes special items. In the 4th-quarter of 2024, free-cash flow was $188 million after funding $52 million of capital expenditures, including the purchase of $13 million manufacturing facility in Colorado. For the full-year, free-cash flow was $744 million or 25% of sales, resulting in a free-cash flow to adjusted net income conversion ratio of 105%. With the strong free-cash flow generation in our business model, we've made solid progress delivering our balance sheet and our net-debt position is now approaching pre-Wyatt acquisition levels.

In the 4th-quarter, we reduced debt by approximately $200 million, resulting in approximately $900 million of debt repayments made in 2024. At the end-of-the quarter, our net-debt position was approximately $1.3 billion, which is net-debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.3 times. We maintain a strong balance sheet, access to liquidity and a well-structured debt maturity profile. This trend allows us to prioritize investing in growth. We continue to evaluate M&A opportunities that will enhance value-creation for our shareholders. We will also evaluate the resumption of our share repurchase program during the course of 2025.

Now, I would like to share further commentary on our 2025 outlook. Customer spending has shown steady signs of recovery in analytical instruments, particularly in downstream high-volume settings that we serve. We expect these positive trends to continue into 2025. Our team is executing very well with our revitalized portfolio. Together with our resilient recurring revenue growth and supported by our ongoing impact of our idiosyncratic growth drivers, we anticipate achieving strong results again in 2025. These dynamics support full-year 2025 constant-currency sales growth guidance of 4.5% to 7%. At current exchange rates, currency translation is expected to result in a negative impact of 2% on full-year sales. Therefore, our total reported sales growth guidance is approximately 2.5% to 5%.

Within the P&L, we plan to counterbalance the impact of foreign-exchange headwinds through continued robust operational performance, sustaining our strong margin performance into 2025. We expect to deliver a gross margin of 59.6% and an adjusted operating margin of 31.2% for the full-year. In both cases, this represents 20 basis-points of net year-over-year expansion, net of 40 basis-points of FX headwind. We expect our full-year net interest expense to be approximately $46 million. Our full-year tax-rate is expected to be largely consistent with 2024 levels at 16.5% as we anticipate mitigating the incremental effects of Pillar 2, including those relating to Singapore. Our average diluted share count is expected to be approximately 59.3 million.

Rolling all this together, on a non-GAAP basis, our full-year 2025 earnings per fully-diluted share guidance is projected in the range of $12.70 to $13, which is approximately 7% to 10% growth and includes an estimated headwind of approximately 4% due to unfavorable foreign-exchange.

Looking to the first-quarter of 2025, our constant-currency sales growth guidance is projected in the range of 4% to 7%. At current rates, currency translation is expected to subtract approximately 3%. Therefore, our total first-quarter reported sales growth guidance is 1% to 7%, up 1% to 4%. The first-quarter of 2025 has two fewer days than the first-quarter of 2024. At the same time, the 4th-quarter of 2024 had two additional days than the 4th-quarter of 2023. Based on these dynamics, together with our 4% to 7% constant-currency sales growth guidance and an expected 7 percentage points of currency headwind on earnings. First-quarter non-GAAP earnings per fully-diluted share is estimated to be in the range of $2.17 to $2.25.

Now I would like to turn the call-back to Udit for our closing comments. Uduk?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Thank you, Amol. 2024 was a defining year for Waters. We delivered excellent -- excellent sales and operational performance, capitalized on the momentum of our new product launches and saw strong contribution from our idiosyncratic growth drivers. We also made continued progress in our high-growth adjacencies. As we look to 2025, there is a lot to be excited about. We're coming out-of-the gate stronger than ever in-market conditions that are beginning to recover. We are confident in our ability to deliver enhanced value for our shareholders.

With that, I will turn the call-back over to Casper.

Caspar Tudor
Head, Investor Relations at Waters

Thanks,. That concludes our formal comments. Danny, we are now ready to open the phone lines for questions.

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Operator

We will now begin the Q&A. If you would like to ask a question, please use the raise hand feature at the bottom of your screen. If you are dialed-in by telephone, please press star 9 to raise your hand and star 6 to unmute. Please accept the prompt and unmute your audio when called upon. As a reminder, we are allowing one question and one follow-up. We will wait a moment to allow the queue to form. Our first question comes from Tycho Peterson at Jefferies. You may now unmute your line and ask your question.

Tycho Peterson
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

All right. Tycho-Peterson. Hey, so I'm wondering if you could talk a little more just on a couple of things. One budget flush dynamics to what degree you thought you had pulled forward here with the new administration and quantify any budget flush impact? And then on replacement cycle, just talk a little bit about where we are in the process. You've talked in the past about customers bring IT and procurement to the table. How widespread is it among your pharma customer-base? And where do you think you go in terms of IS mix by the end-of-the year? I know you talked that it was 20% in the 4th-quarter. And then a follow-up is just capital allocation. You're down to 1.3 turns leverage. What's the appetite to resume share repurchases versus look at M&A and what's the appetite? It's the latter for larger deals, what can you say about Max leverage thresholds and appetite to issue stock? Thanks.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Thank you, Tyco, and good morning. Good morning again. Look, firstly on the budget flush, 2024 was really almost a typical year. We saw a high-teens ramp from Q3 to Q4 and that was helped by the sales momentum that we saw at the end-of-the year. So rather a typical budget flush, if you want to Call-IT that.

Now to your question on the replacement cycle. Look, we finished the year extremely strong, right? So high-single-digit of instrument growth. And LC, as you mentioned, Alliance IS is now 20% of our HPLC sales, really, really solid performance. Pharma grew double-digits to finish the year and driven by large pharma where the replacement cycle has begun and the conversations, as I mentioned in the last quarter, are now quite widespread. So the double-digit growth in pharma -- in the pharma segment driven by large pharma, initiating replacement, CDMOs, which are also starting to see good momentum and of course, continued good performance in India in the generics market. And all of it, as I mentioned earlier, is of course driven by our late-stage focus in QA, QC, in manufacturing where instruments are tied to instrument replacement is tied to sort of the usage and that scales with the volume. And it's really helped in no small part due to our -- due to our strong new portfolio, especially driven by Alliance IS in the HPLC space. So feeling very good about where we stand-on the instrument replacement cycle and the funnels going into the year are very strong. So expect really no change in what we're seeing from our customers. So I'll hand over now to Amol to talk a bit about the capital allocation.

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah, look, I mean, we continue to look at assets that sort of align with our value acceleration goals. Clearly, we've said we don't mind going up to 2.5 times because we can deliver pretty quickly as you've seen with Wyatt. And we -- most critically, we want to be financially disciplined when we look at these targets and make sure sort of these assets are EPS accretive and create good high single-digit ROIC at least by year five.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Thank you all

Operator

Our next question comes from Vijay Kumar at Evercore ISI. Please unmute yourself to ask your question.

Vijay Kumar
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hi,. Good morning and thank you for taking my question. Congrats on a really nice print here. But maybe before I get to my questions, I just want to have maybe a small clarification. I would characterize Tyco as our friendly crazy scientist. I think it has a better ring to it. So there you go, Tyco. I guess if you did it on the guidance here, this 4.5 to 7%, it's -- it's best-in-class so-far, right, relative to tools and some of your peers. How are you incorporating some of the macro-related risks, when you think about tariffs, perhaps NIH, spending cuts, perhaps potential cuts to agencies like EPA, I'm just curious on how that was baked into the guidance. And I had one follow-up.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Sure. So thanks. Thanks, Vijay. I think as you start talking about sort of Tyco, I should also say and I forgot to say it in the prepared remarks, go Eagles. We're big Eagles fans here. So just wanted to insert that before your -- before answering your question. On the guidance itself, look, now we finished the year with high single-digit growth, right? And we saw strength in pharma, double-digit growth in pharma. We saw strength in ANG. New products -- new products with -- with the Alliance IS now almost 20% of the total revenue in Q4 for HPLC, Zevo TQ Absolute, now almost 50% of the total revenue in quantitative mass spec, new products are doing extremely well and they're serving these idiosyncratic growth drivers, GLP-1s, PFAS testing, the India generics market. So it's a very good setup as we go into -- go into 2025. So we expect the same sort of trends to continue.

Now if you just look at the guidance, it's 4.5% to 7%. Recurring revenues have grown 6% to 7% through all sorts of macro cycles, right? So there's not much more evidence required there on what's going to happen there. So we -- let's assume that that's the higher-end of the guidance. Then instruments need to grow roughly 4%, 4.5% for us to get to the midpoint of the guidance. Finishing the year of instruments at high-single-digits with the replacement cycle really beginning in earnest across large pharma where we see really good strength, funnels are very strong.

I spent some time with our sales team and across the globe, our sales meetings are ongoing and there's a lot of excitement with our new portfolio. There's a lot of excitement in the discussions that are taking place, especially with large pharma and the CDMOs. So feel very good about what we see in the funnels. Our new products are gaining traction. So same sort of trends are moving into 2024. And there is no reason why we should not be able to meet and exceed the lower-end of the guide with all the positive trends that we're seeing. So we built a bit of prudence on the lower-end of the guide at 4.5% and we will start to get more constructive as the year progresses.

So I hope that gives you -- gives you some flavor of what we're thinking about in the full-year. So 4.5% in the lower-end sort of measures has some measure of prudence. And as we see any sort of headwinds, we should be able to more than combat it and meet the guidance.

Vijay Kumar
Analyst at Evercore ISI

That's helpful. And maybe one a follow-up on, you know, when you think about the component guidance, PFAS, GLP1, are we still assuming 30 basis-points of contribution? How are you thinking about China, India within that guidance framework and pricing contribution?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Yeah. A big -- big question. Let me try to -- let me try to address the idiosyncratic pieces, the GLP-1 and PFAS. First, GLP-1s, I mean, we're going from strength-to-strength. As you know, we have 100% of -- or column, 100% share in the columns usage. We have a significant share in instrument usage and we are the number-one player in online testing for GLP-1. So we do expect the 30 basis-points to continue. We have good line-of-sight on it.

PFAS testing, we finished the year with 60 basis-points of contribution to the overall growth, but we're assuming for -- in the 2025 guidance, a 30 basis-points accretion. So both of them are 30 plus 30 and India is has contributed over 100 basis-points in 2024, finishing the year -- finishing Q4 at over 30% growth, right? For the full-year, India on a constant-currency basis was over 25% growth, right? So we've assumed India will be at least 70 to 100 basis-points accretive to the growth going-forward. China, we've sort of maintained our low single-digit posture there, right? So China, Q4 came in as expected, low single-digit growth, modest contribution from stimulus, we expect the same in 2025. So China could as the stimulus comes in could give us a bit of an upside.

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

And the last one on pricing, close-up to 200 basis-points.

Operator

Our next question comes from Puneet Suda at. Please unmute your line and ask your question..

Puneet Souda
Analyst at Leerink Partners

Hi, thanks for the questions here. So first one, just wanted to touch on the first-quarter guide, 4% to 7%, a little bit wider than historical patterns. Just want to clarify, I know you talked about the full-year guide, but just given the recent NIH cuts and potential for academic freezing there in instrumentation in the near-term, sort of just help us understand how are you baking that in for the US academic side and how should we think about the 4% versus the 7%, I mean the dynamics that need to play-out in the quarter. Already we are in Q1. So I'm sure you have thought about before setting the guide as to on the lower-end versus the higher-end, if you could elaborate a bit.

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. So look, I mean, in Q4, we grew 8% constant-currency. Keep in mind, Q4 benefited by two extra days, which is roughly 1% extra growth. And then Q1 this year has two less days. So sort of has the reverse dynamic. So net-net, where we are guiding at the midpoint, roughly is in-line with how we performed in Q4 due to the day's impact, right? Now the guidance range is slightly larger than usual, which as you can appreciate, given all the uncertainties, sort of that overhang, the situation. And with Q1 being our smallest quarter, we've given ourselves some prudence and cushion in situation where some of these uncertainties were to materialize. And if they do materialize, we end-up at the lower-end of the guidance. If they don't, we end-up at the higher-end of our guidance. And that's on the sales side.

And then keep in mind, I mean, dollars strengthened so significantly through the course of Q4, it now creates a 7% earnings headwind in Q1. And so when you grow 4% to 7% and have a 7% FX headwind on earnings, you sort of at EPS that's flat or slightly better than flat and that's where the EPS guide is.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

And maybe just to embellish a little bit on -- little bit on EPS in Q1, Puneet. I mean, as I mentioned earlier, I mean, this is the time for growth for Waters. We're seeing incredible growth across our key customer segments. Our sales meetings are back and we want to invest -- invest in training our folks. People are very excited about the traction that new products are gaining. They're very excited about the chemistry piece and we're investing in ensuring that our folks are trained, our sales teams are trained. So we're continuing to invest even in Q1. And Q1 is again, as I mentioned, is the smallest quarter. So the sales meetings are back and we're basically investing for growth starting already in Q1.

Puneet Souda
Analyst at Leerink Partners

Got it. That's helpful. And then if I could double-click on both Europe and India, Europe, if you could just elaborate some of the dynamics there, budget flush pharma versus non-pharma? And then also specifically on India with it, I would love to get your thoughts on 70 to 100 bps contribution again strong throughout 2024. How do you -- how are you -- India team and yourself, how are you thinking about the patent cliff opportunity here? And how should we think about that opportunity getting layered into the growth algorithm over the next few years?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Yeah. Let me start with India and then we'll do Europe second. Very pleased with both of those end-markets. But looking at India, like I said, India, Q4 was 34% constant-currency growth and for the year, 27%. India is now a meaningful contributor to waters at over 8% of our total sales. So really feel-good about what the team has been doing on-the-ground. We are the market-share leader in the key generics companies in India and our columns, our instruments are used there. Alliance IS is also doing well. We have the highest service attachment rate there. So really feel-good about what we're doing on-the-ground from an execution standpoint.

Looking ahead, the generics -- the genericization opportunity is very significant, right? So $240 billion of revenues will go off-patent over the next five to seven years. India continues to supply roughly 50% of the global genetics market and over half of that $240 billion $250 billion is a small-molecule. So that fits right into the current business model that exists and half of it is biosimilars, which is now developing in many of these -- many of these markets. So feel-good about the opportunity going-forward. And just to give you a case in point, semiglutide genericization is expected to hit sometime in 2026 and the top generics players are already working with us to adapt and adopt the processes that the key innovators have been using. Amol, you want to start with Europe?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. I mean, look, Europe is executing super well, right, 11% growth. It's across-the-board, double-digit growth in pharma, high single-digit growth in industrial, double double-digit plus growth in ANG, instruments growing high-single-digit plus. So between how our teams are executing together with the refreshed portfolio together with some of the idiosyncratic growth opportunities like PFAS and GLP-1s, the team is capitalizing really well in what's out there.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

And I mean, just to sort of build-on that, Europe is -- I mean, Europe has been doing extremely well for the full-year and finished the year extremely strong. The academic segment at the end-of-the year usually sees a significant budget flush and we did. And as I mentioned earlier to Tyco's question, look, I mean, 2024 was a typical year for us, right, with the budget flush sort of going back to what we've seen in historic times. So really good finish to the year in Europe and very, very excited about how the year has started there with good conversations across different customer segments.

Operator

Our next question comes from Eve Bertstein at Bernstein. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Eve Burstein
Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein

Great. Good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. And we talked a lot about the replacement cycle and kind of the pent-up opportunity from 2019 to 2024. But at a conference in January, you said that the instrument replacement commercial initiative was progressing well with still 15% of lagged 2015 to 2019 replacement opportunity remaining. So how does that number compare to average versus when you're coming out of a down-cycle and starting an upcycle? Essentially, is that better, better or worse? And how much of that replacement opportunity is in China specifically?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Yeah. So it's a good question,, and thanks for paying specific attention to those separate drivers. So just to sort of clarify for everyone, there are two different instrument growth drivers. One is the pent-up demand for replacement where there was deferred replacement that took place in the 2023, '24 timeframe and replacements were deferred from that timeframe to a bit later. So that's what we're calling the replacement cycle, that is a standard cycle that occurs in the industry. And during that time, we see a 2% to 3% outperformance in instrument growth rate versus the 5% average over the long-term, right? So that's what we're calling the replacement cycle. The signs of that are rather clear when you talk to customers because the meetings that take place are with a larger number of people, they're planning a multi-year replacement. Procurement sits in that discussion, IT sits in that discussion, the lab managers sit in that discussion and a whole bunch of folks from our side in those discussions and those are widespread across the industry right now. And so we're seeing very good traction on that.

What you asked about is the 15% that is pending from the transformation that we began in 2020 and 2021. And there you'll recall, we had said, look, there are roughly 13,000 instruments that should have been replaced in the 2018 to '20 timeframe that got deferred. And we worked very hard to replace them in '21 and '22, but the macro cycle slowed down in 2023 and '24 and that 15% is still pending, right? So we have a database in our CRM system and we track this diligently, right? So people don't forget that, that 15% is still pending. So you can superimpose the two. I didn't want us to now go crazy sort of with instrument growth rates. I was trying to bring the two together. But in our CRM system, we have that tracked really diligently. So I hope that clarifies the replacement question.

On China, we've assumed a low single-digit growth. I mean, market conditions have improved over the year, but we've assumed that it's still muted. There is an impact of the stimulus expected in 2025. Again, there we've been modest. We've assumed a sort of a low-to -- sorry, mid to-high single-digit, single mid to-high single-digit million contribution for the year. So we expect China to remain sort of a piece in the guide remain the same. And if there's more stimulus and more replacement, we should see more dynamic -- more dynamic growth.

Eve Burstein
Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein

That's great. Thanks a lot for clarifying. One clarification just on price. So you said in response to Vijay, pricing was closer to 200 bps. Just to clarify, was that the contribution for growth in 4Q? And if so, how much does pricing contribute to the '25 guide? And are you including the effect of a double upgrade in that contribution and how much is that?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. So look, I mean, when we coat pricing, it's always like-for-like SKU like-for-like geography. It does not include the benefits of the upsell. Our '24 was close to 200 basis-points contribution and that's in-line with what we have in our '25 guide.

Operator

Our next question is from Brandon at Wells Fargo. Brandon, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Brandon Couillard
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Thank you very much., I think you talked about instrument growth this year, 4.5%. Just curious how that compares between LC, mass spec and light scattering and any details you can kind of give us on what you've assumed in terms of growth across the three end-markets.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

I think you should assume sort of mid-single digit-ish for all three. So mass spec at 4% in that 4.5% number, LC at 5%, TA at 5% and light scattering somewhere there or thereabouts also, a bit a bit higher than that since it's accretive, probably closer to double-digits, but it's such a small portion of the business, it doesn't make a huge difference at this point. And Brandon, even as we finish -- sorry, Brandon, just to clarify, even as we finish the year, all instrument segments grew at minimum high-single-digits. So LC, mass spec, TA and Wyatt was well into the double-digits.

Brandon Couillard
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Got it. And your PFAS market sizing continues to walk-up. Now you're talking about $400 million opportunity prior was kind of $300 million to $350 million. What's enabling you to grow so much faster than the underlying market? Where-is that developing most rapidly either by application or region right now?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Yeah. Yeah. I think it's -- so the market itself has significant unmet needs, right? I mean, we started with the environmental market, then it's expanded into food testing step-by-step. The academic customer segment also purchases instruments to quantify and assess PFAS. So very dynamic market. And you're right, the market size continues to increase as more-and-more applications come in. We've grown almost double the market growth rate and it's driven, I mean, first by having the best-in-class instrument because PFAS testing, remember, is not just one molecule. It's over 40 already classified -- classified as PFAS. All of these need to be quantified and the regulators keep increasing the sensitivity requirements and we have the most sensitive instrument in the market with the lowest environmental footprint. And that's worked extremely well in the hands of our customers, right? So the number-one driver is the success of the Zevo TQ Absolute and which now is in Q4 was 50% of the revenue of quantitative mass spec. So highly, highly successful launch driven not just by the differentiated -- differentiation, but also the commercial excellence. And equally, our teams are investing a ton of energy in the compliant informatics segment. The Waters Connect informatics software is doing very well in regulated settings. Remember, our history and legacy is in compliance settings where data integrity is of a premium. So we've taken what we've learned from Empower, adopted it into Waters Connect, and that's working very well in that -- in the PFAS regulated segment.

And then finally, chemistry and workflows. We continue to launch new chemistry and new workflows to really keep up with the complexity of different PFAS molecules. So across-the-board and the market size is expanding largely because of application sets. So feel very good about where we sit there.

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Arias at Stifel. Dan, please press star 9 to unmute your line and ask your question.

Daniel Arias
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Good morning, guys. Thank you., can you just maybe expand on that PFAS idea a little bit? I mean, to what extent do you still see there being additional capacity needs in the lab base on-the-water testing side in the US? Because I know to your point, application expansion, geographic expansion is important, but I'm just sort of trying to understand what you've done in 2024 when it comes to scaling up these labs in order to test on-the-water side in the US specifically.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

So that's a good question, Dan. It's early days still, right? I mean, when you look at PFAS testing and this is something we'll spend some time at our Investor Day as well, breaking down the different segments that have constituted growth, right? The academic segment, the first round spent a lot of time in energy and we had very good sales in that segment, helping people understand what the heck PFAS really is, developing methods that could get standardized and then be disseminated second to public health laboratories to water testing laboratories.

And then the last piece is -- is the second to last piece is water testing laboratories across the country. And the final one is people who have to do remediation. So when you think of BFAS testing, it's not just contract testing labs. It's also academic labs, which started first, then it's -- then it's public health labs that set standards, then it's -- then it's contract testing organizations like water testing and then finally, people who have to remediate PFAS out. So we're in the very early innings of the penetration. And as I said, we'll talk more about it at the Investor Day, but we're outpacing the market quite significantly.

Daniel Arias
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Okay. Thanks for that. Maybe just on the mass spec side, I mean, to what extent do you feel like the uptake there is partly a function of or being helped by the LC replacement cycle? In other words, if you look at LC MS combo purchases now versus prior periods, what do you see and what is sort of embedded in that -- that mass spec growth rate that you're talking about for this year, mid-single digits when it comes to just sort of that being driven by LC uptake versus performance and new platform introductions, et-cetera? If that's something that you can kind of speak to? Thanks.

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah, look, I mean that mass spec update uptake is not meaningfully impacted by LC replacement. A lot of LC replacement is happening in manufacturing QA/QC where LC sort of operates largely standalone. And what is helping mass spec meaningfully is various vectors that have come together based on our revitalized portfolio. As mentioned, DQ Absolute is doing exceedingly well, not just in PFAS, but across the applications in food and pharma space as well, as well as in clinical. You have something like BioAccord doing well in bioanalytical characterization. You have some of the newer launches on the high-risk space that are catering to very specific needs and that they are doing exceedingly well on those applications. And that's why you see sort of the kind of growth you're seeing on, not driven by LC replacement.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Yeah. So I mean, just to elaborate on that a little bit, it's the two dimensions, right? So it's the different pieces of mass spec that are individually contributing due to innovation. So be it PFAS testing, be it -- be it mass spec usage in genotox impurity testing in pharma, be it mass spec testing and this is only TQ absolute in clinical. And then, of course, there's the BioAccord, which is doing extremely well. And then the MRT, which is our new product that is on the high-risk side. So you see the innovation -- the innovation contributing. And then that has helped on the customer dimension by a strong growing segment like PFAS. It's helped to some extent by late-stage development where mass spec is significant -- is used significantly for quantitative assessment of different types of biologics, right? So you see that two dimensions working very well from our spec, the innovation as well as the different customer segments and not only due to the LC replacement cycle. As Amol mentioned, that's mostly an LCUB link for small molecules.

Operator

Our next question is from Matt Zykes at Goldman Sachs. Matt, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Unidentified Participant
at Waters

Hi, this is Yvey on for Matt. Thanks for taking my questions. So the first one, you've seen impressive growth in services. Can you talk through the benefits of your Empower software? And then any particular applications areas where you see higher attachment rates and then any levers you're using to improve to improve that going-forward?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. I mean, look, no two recurring revenues are equal. And our recurring portfolio proves that, right, because even in this downturn when most other recurring portfolios have been flat or low-single digits, we've been rock-solid at 6% to 7% growth. And what's sort of contributing to that is our unique position with Empower, coupled with how well we've done with service attachment rates, where our net promoter scores are on service, our launches in bioseparations columns as well as the progress that we've made on our e-commerce with chemistry consumables. And that's sort of what is driving this rock-solid 6% to 7% recurring revenue growth.

Unidentified Participant
at Waters

Great. And then can you talk through the strength you saw in the academic and government section this quarter? And then what your expectations are going into 2025? Any potential impact from NIH risk?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. I mean, look, Q4 was very strong from an A&G perspective. It did benefit from the typical budget flush dynamics, particularly in-markets like Europe. We also saw some initial orders getting converted on stimulus in China. But again, longer-term, this market has traditionally been low-single digit at best mid-single-digit grower, right? And it's very choppy. So you can't really count on this trend. I think as we get into '25, we will benefit from the stimulus in China. But again, there are so many puts and takes there. So we've put a very prudent assumption in our guide and if it plays out better, that will be an upside. But we don't have much direct exposure to NIH funding, very little actually less than 1%. So we're not exposed to that dynamics because our primary business is pharma and industrial. It's a small portion of our business, around 10% and we continue to monitor the dynamics.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

And just to sort of finish up, I mean, for 2025, we've assumed low-single-digit growth in ANG, right? So not the dynamism that we saw in Q4, especially in pharma, we've not assumed that at all-in ANG for the 2025 guide. So it's a low-single-digit growth.

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Brennan at TD Cowen. Dan, please unmute your line and ask your question.

Daniel Brennan
Analyst at TD Cowen

Terrific. Thank you. Thanks for the questions, guys. Maybe just the first one on instruments just for the guide. I think you said 4% for 2025. Just confirm that maybe feels a little conservative. And if you could speak to, you've highlighted this five-year CAGR and this 5% normalization. So where did we end-up '24 and kind of what's implied on '25 and kind of any reason why the kind of the improvement you're expecting in '25, is that on the normal trend-line or is it above or below?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

So thanks, Dan. Look, we've assumed the 4.5% -- that the range is 4.5% to 7% for the full-year. And just to repeat what I started with, the 7-ish to 7% you should assume is what we think is the recurring revenue. And you can -- you can see why that is a pretty stable and rock-solid assumption. Instruments need to grow 4%, 4.5% for us to get to the midpoint of the guide.

Now your question is a good one. I mean, we finished the year with high single-digit growth in instruments. The funnel is extremely strong and the conversion looks extremely strong, especially led by pharma where we're seeing very good traction of our Alliance IS instrument to sort of support the replacement cycle. We're seeing the idiosyncratic drivers contributing nicely. I think as you look at -- look at 2025, the way I would look at it is we will start to get more constructive as the year goes on. We will start to reveal more information because at this point, we feel very optimistic. We see good funnels. Q1 is the smallest quarter. We just want to get more information before we start sort of saying, hey, it's going to be another 8%, 9% a year for instruments. Typically -- and you're right again to point out, typically when we come out of a trough in instrument replacement, we usually see a 2% to 3% outperformance versus the long-term average, which is 5%, right? So going back to the CAGRs, the long-term average is 5%. Usually when you come out into the replacement cycle, you start seeing a 2% to 3% outperformance. All signs are pointing in that direction. We. We just want to start the year with a bit of -- bit of prudence and derisk it as the year goes on. Amol, anything to add?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. Look, whichever way you look at it, area under the curve, CAGRs, average fleet life and even if you exclude China for US and European markets, there is a meaningful catch-up opportunity from each of these analytical viewpoints, right? And we see that in the dialog with large pharma, the dialogue with CDMOs is starting to improve. The one thing one has to keep in mind is not every part of our customer-base is recovering to its healthy state, right? We still have biotechs. We still have a biotech research. These things haven't recovered or China pharma hasn't recovered to a level it needs to. So the ramp of this replacement cycle will not be as steep as historical, but the length or the duration of this replacement cycle is likely going to be longer just because eventually all these lagging segments of the market have to come back and replace their aging instrument fleet.

Daniel Brennan
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. And then I know there was one question on India, but maybe just one follow-up since it is so strong for you right now. I think I heard you say over 25% growth in '24, over 100 basis-points contribution.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

We reduce that Dan we lost you.

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Let's proceed to our next question ask

Operator

Sure thing. Our next and final question is from Catherine at Baird. Please unmute your line and ask your question, Catherine. Thank you.

Catherine Ramsey
Analyst at Robert W. Baird

Hey guys, thanks for the questions. Maybe just first on pharma, great to see that return to double-digit growth this quarter. Maybe just to go back to Tyco's questions, is there a way to quantify the stronger budget flush dynamic in the quarter? And what are you assuming for pharma growth both for the first-quarter and the full-year?

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

Yeah. So Kathryn, so for Q4, I mean, it was as I said, it's very strong growth. We're very happy with it. It really supports our late-stage focus. But as you look at Q4, the ramp was typical to the pre-pandemic years, right? So high-teens, almost 20% from Q3 to Q4. So normal budget flush dynamic, not more, not less, right? So it's stronger than what we saw last year and the year before, but starting to trend towards a normal to a normal which -- to a normal level, which is consistent with how pharma -- late-stage pharma is behaving, QA, QC spending. So we start to see a normalization of behavior -- behavior there.

Catherine Ramsey
Analyst at Robert W. Baird

And then maybe just on the services side, you mentioned over 50% of your active installed-base now has a service contract in-place. I believe your target is to get that to 55. So can you just talk to where you think that can go throughout the year?

Amol Chaubal
Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Waters

Yeah. Look, I mean, we are very happy with the progress that we've made and every year we start with a goal and we end-up achieving double that goal in the year. And keep in mind, this is just based on instrument installed-base out there, it doesn't include the first-tier instruments that are in warranty. So when you add that almost 60% of our installed-base is either under warranty or under a service plan, 55 is a good goal to go with and we are starting to make progress in the last remaining areas like China. And then again, a lot of the focus and pivots our service organization into the next big thing, which is sort of how do we get service lead-gen and we've made tremendous progress in-markets like US and India where the attachment rate is very-high and these organizations have already pivoted to their next biggest goal, which is lead-gen and revenue conversion.

Udit Batra
President and Chief Executive Officer at Waters

And thanks, for that question. I think we're coming to the end-of-the call. I want to make sure everybody -- everybody remembers that March 5 is the Investor Day in New York City and we look-forward to elaborating on the service question, use of AI in-service, use of AI internally and externally in many other -- many other areas.

But let me conclude by saying we are very excited about how we finished 2024. We're entering this new phase of growth with a lot of momentum, especially on our instrument portfolio, the recurring revenues are growing like a Swiss clock. We've said that before. The instrument revenues -- the instrument growth is now really kicking into gear with the replacement cycle beginning with the new product portfolio gaining a ton of traction with the idiosyncratic growth drivers contributing and we feel very good about with the way we are starting -- the way we're starting 2025. Look-forward to seeing you at the Investor Day and thank you all for joining us today.

Corporate Executives
  • Caspar Tudor
    Head, Investor Relations
  • Udit Batra
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Amol Chaubal
    Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

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