American Electric Power Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good morning. My name is Audra and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Electric Power fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Darcy Reese, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Darcy Reese
Vice President, Investor Relations at American Electric Power

Good morning and welcome to American Electric Power's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under the Events and Presentations section.

We have a few members of our management team with us today, including Bill Fuhrman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trevor Mihalik, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Kate Sturgis, Senior Vice President, Comptroller and Chief Accounting Officer. We will be making forward looking statements during the call. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward looking statement we make today.

Factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company's most recent SEC filings. Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We will take your questions following opening remarks.

With that, please turn to slide four and let me hand the call over to Bill.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Thank you Darcy and good morning everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

Let me start by saying that after six months on the job, I continue to get more excited about the very strong and comprehensive AEP value proposition. Our future is extremely bright and we are committed to delivering on our promises to customers, regulators and investors. By putting our robust capital plan to work, we are building a platform of success by focusing on execution and accountability.

These are exciting times at AEP and I see incredible value in this company which I am confident we can further unlock by advancing our long term strategy and providing safe, affordable and reliable service across our large footprint. Before we jump into our results, I'd like to start by introducing our new cfo, Trevor Mihalik, who joined AEP last month and is on the call with me today. Trevor is a proven leader and an industry veteran.

He's hit the ground running and is already considered a very strong, disciplined and focused member of our senior leadership team. I've made a number of changes over the last six months to streamline our leadership structure by eliminating management layers, reorganizing and reducing the size and scope of the service corporation and improving procurement processes to drive much higher value from suppliers. The leadership team is coming together to make AEP a premium traded utility that is highly respected and trusted by our many stakeholders.

Lastly, I'd like to take a moment to thank Chuck Zabula for his more than 25 years of dedicated service to AEP. We're grateful for his steady hand during the transition and will continue to benefit from his expertise until his well earned retirement in March. In my remarks this morning, I will discuss our strategic focus and our results at a high level before passing it over to Trevor to walk through our financials in more detail.

Today we announced fourth quarter 2024 operating earnings of $1.24 per share or $660 million, bringing our full year 2024 operating earnings to $5.62 per share.

Recall, as part of our commitment of continuing to deliver value to our shareholders, last October we increased the quarterly dividend from 88 to 93 cents per share. In addition, today we are reaffirming AEP's 2025 operating earnings guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share and affirming our long term operating earnings growth rate of 6 to 8%, all reinforced by our robust $54 billion capital plan from 2025 through 2029. As we have talked about previously, I'm committed to a strong balance sheet and I believe it is critical to funding our robust capital plan. We will responsibly finance the great opportunities ahead of us from a position of strength.

Trevor will address this further in his remarks. We will also be disciplined around portfolio management. In fact, last month we announced the Ohio and INM minority interest transaction on the transmission business with KKR and PSP Investments for $2.82 billion. The transaction is highly accretive at 2.3 times rate base and valued at 30.3 times price to earnings. To put this into another perspective, this is equivalent to issuing AEP common stock at $170per share. Moreover, in the last couple of weeks we filed for approval with FERC and we expect to close in the second half of 2025, at which time we'll still retain 95% of AEP's total transmission assets.

The proceeds from this transaction allow us to rotate capital into investments that benefit our customers as we enhance reliability and deliver on growing energy demand. In addition to the minority interest transaction, we also recycled almost a half billion dollars in net cash proceeds in 2024 through the sale of the New Mexico Renewable Development, Solar Portfolio and Distributed Resources business. We continue to work with federal policymakers, state legislators and regulators across our large service footprint to determine what their goals are so we can relentlessly deliver on them.

I would also like to spend some time this morning walking through AEP's future growth opportunities, which are underpinned by four major drivers large load in our service territories, including data center load that we appreciate having the chance to serve and are aggressively pursuing economic development efforts in our states, investment across the system in our transmission and distribution infrastructure and new generation. Our capital plan includes customer commitments for 20 gigawatts of incremental load by 2030, driven by data center demand, reshoring and manufacturing and continued economic development. In fact, large load impacts are already being felt in many of AEP's service territories, especially in Ohio, Texas and Indiana.

As demonstrated in our fourth quarter results, we experienced commercial load growth of 12.3% over the fourth quarter and 10.6% growth on the full year compared to 2023. One of the reasons we are seeing such growth now is that we have an advanced transmission system that can help support current large loads, which is significant advantage for us versus our peers. As we execute on our $54 billion capital plan to support customer needs, affordability remains top of mind and we are committed to fair cost allocation associated with large loads. We proactively filed the Data Center Tariff in Ohio and large low tariff modifications in Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia, and we look forward to commission decisions in Indiana and West Virginia on both states Unanimous settlements in the near future.

The Data Center Tariff hearing in Ohio concluded last month and we should have a commission decision by the third quarter of this year. In addition to our efforts to support load growth, our current capital plan contemplates sustained and substantial investments across our distribution infrastructure to better meet our customers energy needs and improve customer service. Since AEP's distribution system is one of the nation's largest at approximately 225,000 distribution miles, these efforts include work to harden or replace poles, conductors, transformers and other assets, as well as deploy automated technologies like AMI meters and GripSmart for enhanced operational performance.

In total, we are investing more than $13 billion over the next five years in these areas to improve reliability and reduce both frequency and duration of outages. By advancing these initiatives, as well as an aggressive vegetation management program, we will increase customer satisfaction, strengthen our system's resilience to weather events and reduce cost for operations and maintenance Demand for power is growing at a pace not seen over my 44 years in this business. As we discussed last quarter, meeting this demand could require incremental investment of up to $10 billion driven by additional transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure not included in our current $54 billion capital plan.

For example, in our three primary RTOs, we see an opportunity of approximately 4 to 5 billion dollars of incremental transmission awards recently approved or expected to be approved in the near term, with additional upside on other initiatives. The remainder of the $10 billion of incremental capital upside is in transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure across the business. In addition, as you'll recall, in November we announced a partnership of Bloom Energy related to fuel cells.

Our current capital plan does not include any investment in this custom solution which will enable our large customers to quickly power their operations. And while the grid is built out to accommodate further demand, once the necessary infrastructure is connected to these large customers, they can use the fuel cells as backup generation, further adding resiliency to their operations. This demonstrates our commitment to finding innovative customer solutions that let them power up much quicker, allowing their business to deliver service to their customers, which will generate profits much sooner than waiting for a grid connection.

As a matter of fact, just this week AEP Ohio filed with the Ohio Commission for approval of the first two customer projects using this fuel cell technology totaling 100 megawatts. Not only is AEP working to bring solutions tailored to the current power needs of our states, but we are leading efforts in the industry on the potential that small modular reactors or SMRs have to meet the growing needs of the future. Looking to partner with the U.S.

Department of Energy to support the early site permit process for two potential SMR locations, one in Indiana and the other in Virginia. We are laying the groundwork to find solutions to support large loads and are fortunate for the opportunity to build these SMRs, but only with appropriate risk sharing. The tech companies are fast movers and AEP will be there to support them with whatever technology solution they want to deploy, but we need to ensure that we are protected and compensated.

Moving on to regulatory over the last six months I have visited 10 of our 11 states and have been actively engaged with various stakeholders, listening to their preferences as we invest more in resources at the local level. I firmly believe that by delivering for our states and the customers who live there, we can over time improve our earned roes and increase equity layers. As states are more receptive for the need to attract capital, it is an absolute imperative that AEP listen closely to our states and then aggressively deliver on the agreed upon commitments.

That's my promise to them when I look at 2024. In review, our operating companies achieved a number of positive regulatory developments including received constructive base rate case outcomes in Indiana, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia obtained Commission approval of the Ohio Electric Security Plan, updated formula rates in Arkansas and Louisiana and filed system resiliency plans in both of our operating companies in Texas. As we discussed on our last call, APCO filed its base case in West Virginia while offering securitization as a concept to help mitigate the proposed base rate increase.

Intervenor testimony in this case is set for April with rebuttal testimony following in May and a hearing set to start in mid June of this year. We look forward to working with everyone involved in this case to achieve a positive outcome for both our customers and our shareholders. Shifting now to our generation fleet, we previously filed for approval of PSO's Green Country 795 megawatt natural gas facility, SweptCo's new Hullsville 450 megawatt natural gas plant, as well as SwepCo's Welsh 1053 megawatt natural gas conversion project.

These facilities and RFPs which are currently in progress at APCO, IM and PSO in addition to future Integrated Resource Plan filings over the next couple years in Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Virginia and West Virginia, support our capacity obligations and will go a long way in meeting our customers energy needs. In summary, we're engaged with key stakeholders on the regulatory front as we keep affordability, system, reliability, resiliency and security top of mind. I'm excited to start the new year having made meaningful progress and will continue these important efforts as we advance on our commitment to excellence and deliver on what our states want.

I'll close by thanking everyone at AEP for their hard work and dedication in 2024. I'm energized as we enter 2025 with a strong team and a more streamlined structure that are significantly driving efficiencies, reducing bureaucracy and creating a much more nimble company that can quickly execute on opportunities. We're also having our employees who have been working from home return to the office full time by June 1st to put all hands on deck with a renewed focus on execution and accountability that will serve us well as we advance our strategic priorities to enhance value for our stakeholders.

With that, I'll now turn it over to Trevor.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Thank you Bill and good morning to everyone on the call. I want to start today by thanking Bill and the board for placing their trust in me to help lead this organization into a bright and exciting future.

I am honored and grateful for the opportunity to join a dynamic team that is focused on positioning the company for future success, and I'm committed to building on our momentum to create value for all of our stakeholders. As part of my transition, I have reviewed AEP's financial and capital plans and I have confidence in executing on them with this team. Today, I will walk us through the fourth quarter and full year results for 2024, expand on Bill's comments related to load growth, and discuss what we expect to see in the years ahead.

I will finish with commentary on credit metrics, liquidity and portfolio management, as well as my focus on disciplined capital allocation. Please Turn to Slide 7 this slide shows the comparison of GAAP to operating earnings for the quarter and year to date periods. GAAP Earnings for the fourth quarter were $1.25 per share compared to $0.64 per share in 2023. GAAP earnings for the year were $5.60 per share compared to $4.26 per share in 2023. Detailed reconciliations of GAAP to operating earnings are shown in the Appendix on slides 25 and 26.

Next, I will briefly cover fourth quarter operating results before moving on to a more detailed walkthrough of our year to date Results by segment. Fourth quarter operating earnings came in at $1.24 per share, which was $0.01 improvement versus the prior year. We saw $0.22 of incremental rate changes across multiple jurisdictions along with higher normalized retail sales at both the vertically integrated and transmission and distribution segments. Partially offsetting these favorable drivers were higher O and M and lower margins at the generation and marketing segment. For reference, the full details of our fourth quarter results are shown on slide 22. Moving on to slide 8, let's have a look at our year to date results.

Operating earnings for 2024 totaled $5.62 per share compared to $5.25 per share in 2023. This was an increase of 37 cents per share or about 7% year over year, adding to AEP's long track record of delivering on its financial commitments. For investors looking at the drivers by segment, operating earnings for vertically integrated utilities were $2.63 per share, up 16 cents from a year earlier.

Positive drivers included rate changes across multiple jurisdictions, notable outcomes in Virginia and Indiana, and a return to relatively normal weather in 2024 compared to the mild weather experienced in 2023. These items were partially offset by higher depreciation and higher O and M as we made investments to serve our customers. The transmission and distribution utilities segment earned $1.51 per share, up 21 cents from last year. Favorable drivers in this segment included increased rates in Texas and Ohio, increased transmission revenue, a favorable year over year change in weather and higher normalized retail sales. Partially offsetting these items were increased property taxes, depreciation, interest expense and O and M.

The AEP transmission holeco segment contributed $1.51 per share, up 8 cents from last year. Our continued investment in transmission assets as the new loads are added to our system was the main driver in this segment. Generation and marketing produced 48 cents per share, down 11 cents from last year. The reduced contribution from this segment was primarily driven by the sale of our universal scale assets in the third quarter of 2023. Higher income taxes and lower retail energy margins.

These items were partially offset by lower interest expense and higher wholesale margins. Finally, corporate and other saw a benefit of $0.03 per share driven by lower income taxes and O and M which are partially offset by higher net interest expense. As Bill mentioned earlier, we are reaffirming our operating earnings guidance range for 2025 of $5.75 to $5.95 per share. For convenience, we've included an updated waterfall bridging our actual 2024 results to the midpoint of our guidance for 2025 on Slide 20. While some variances changed due to the 2024 actual results, there is no change to our 2025 segment or overall guidance.

Turning to Slide 9, you can see more evidence of just how important load growth is to our financial story. Weather Normalized sales grew 3% in 2024 and we expect that to nearly triple in the years ahead. These are exciting times in the utility industry as we incorporate this tremendous growth. As Bill mentioned, the load growth that I'm going to talk about is providing the opportunity to potentially add up to $10 billion of incremental capital over the next five years to our already sizable $54 billion plan.

We are continuing to evaluate the magnitude and timing of this spend to meet the growth opportunities across our footprint. The gains we are seeing from the data centers and industrial customers represent a once in a generational opportunity to shape and grow the system. So before I jump into the details, I want to emphasize a few key points about our confidence in the projections you see here.

First, this isn't just a future story, this is a now story. We're already seeing these loads come online across our system. In December of 2024 we added almost 450 megawatts of hyperscale data center load in Ohio alone.

Second, the load additions built into the forecast you see here are all backed by signed customer financial obligations demonstrating their commitment to bring these projects online. In fact, nearly all of these loads are backed by take or pay contracts and have already been accepted by certain RTOs, including PJM. This means that our customers are committed to pay for a minimum amount of power over a period of time.

What's more, we've achieved tariff settlements in Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia to strengthen and lengthen those commitments even further. Beyond those contracts, we have substantial interconnection queues waiting to sign additional commitments as well. Diving a little further into the details, you can see where the bulk of our growth is concentrated.

New data centers drove double digit growth in our commercial sales in 2024, with system wide data processing load hitting a new high in December of 1.3 million megawatt hours. The gains are expanding beyond the transmission and distribution utilities into our higher margin vertically integrated segment.

Recently we also connected the first of several hyperscale data center customers in Indiana, including AWS and Google. Across the entire system, we're contracted to see nearly 5 gigawatts of data processing load come online in 2025, representing almost a 25% increase from 2024. Beyond commercial load, our industrial sales are also set to accelerate after a resilient 2024.

AEP's industrial load grew by more than 402,000 megawatt hours last year. This was punctuated by growth of almost 5% in Texas, highlighting the diversity of our service territory and giving us a lot of confidence going into the new year. We expect industrial sales growth to more than double in 2025 as several new large customers are contracted to come onto the system.

Like Cheniere in Texas, we also have several other large and well publicized industrial projects set to come online in 26 and 27. More detailed load projections by class can be found on slide 13. As a reminder, we have more than 20 gigawatts of commercial and industrial load additions contracted to come onto our system through the end of the decade.

Roughly half of those are in ERCOT and the other half are spread across our PJM companies. As a result, we expect these quarterly sales numbers to continue their rapid growth for several years to come. Let's move on to slide 10 to discuss the company's capitalization and liquidity.

Our financial performance and strong balance sheet provided good credit metrics for the last 12 months. Our debt to capitalization remained largely consistent with our historical range Our FFO to debt metrics stood at 14% for the 12 months ended December 31, which was within our target range and well above our downgrade threshold of 13%. Available liquidity remained very strong at $4.6

Billion and is supported by $6 billion in credit facilities. Our strong balance sheet and credit metric results, coupled with ample liquidity and the outcome of the minority interest transaction expected to close in the second half of this year, have enhanced our financial flexibility. We can efficiently access the capital markets to support the capital needs in front of us.

We are committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and credit metrics as we evaluate the upcoming capital spend opportunities and match them with optimal financing instruments. On a similar note, last week I spoke directly with all three rating agencies and conveyed this leadership team's commitment to a strong balance sheet focus on executing the regulatory and financing plans as well as disciplined allocation of O and M and capital to our companies. Finally, let's move on to slide 11.

Before we take your questions, I wanted to summarize what you heard from us today. First, you heard we had a strong year over year performance in 2024, growing our earnings roughly 7% with operating earnings coming in at $5.62 per share.

We reinforced our commitments to stakeholders and built solid momentum heading into 2025. Second, you heard that we are absolutely focused on execution in 2025 to support one of the great load growth stories in our industry. We're executing on strategic investments and delivering on our regulatory strategy, giving us confidence in our financing plans.

Third, you heard we have $10 billion of incremental growth capital that we are currently evaluating. And fourth, you heard that the $2.82 billion pending minority interest transaction on the transmission assets is an exceptional value proposition to our shareholders.

The transaction further boosts our earnings and credit profiles and helps to reduce near term equity needs. Recall that the value we transacted on this is comparable to issuing equity at $170 per share and we still retain 95% of AEP's total transmission asset post close. These components are key to our future success and reinforce our confidence in reaffirming our commitments, including our 2025 guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share, our long term growth rate of 6% to 8% while targeting FFO to debt of 14% to 15%. We really appreciate your time and attention.

Today I'm going to ask the operator to open the call so we can answer any of your questions that you may have. Thank you.

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Operator

Thank You. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your questions, simply press star one. Again, we'll take our first question from Shar Pariza at Guggenheim Partners.

Shar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Hey guys, good morning.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Good morning, Shar.

Shar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Morning. Just on the balance sheet, the 40 to 60 basis points of FFO improvement, you highlight that kind of on the slides as a near term target. Can you sustain that over the plan? And then on equity, any sense on the means of issuing the remaining 2.5 billion? Is it juniors? Is it asset optimization, a block? I mean, I know Bill, in your comments you did highlight portfolio management in your prepared remarks. Just want to get a sense on that remaining equity as well.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, sure. So here's Trevor. Appreciate the question. You know, we are targeting FFO to debt in that 14 to 15% range. And again, from our perspective, that is a target that we're looking at. I will note that we are going to have a revision to the way that Moody's calculates the deferred fuel. So we will drop down probably 40, 50bps, 60bps, depending on where things go with that, which I think it's going to happen. But again, that's going to be above the 13% threshold. And again, from our perspective, both Bill and I are very focused on issuing, you know, the or executing on the $54 billion capital plan with a strong balance sheet. So I think what you'll see is this will dip down a little bit in the current year and then really the deferred fuel issue kind of rolls off by 2026.

And so from that perspective, you know, we're really focused on getting that, you know, in that 14 to 15% range in the near term. Then getting to your financing question, again, like you said, we put out that $5.35 billion of equity needs last year and kind of talked about that at EEI.

The good news is with this transaction, the $2.8 billion goes a long way to solving that. So that really leaves then like you said, the 2.5 billion of which there's call it 500 million over the five year period or $100 million a year on the drip. So then it's a very manageable 2 billion. And then looking at various things that we have here to solve for that, there's potential securitization that we're continuing to work on in some of our locations. But we'll also utilize hybrids or other equity like instruments and then if we need to issue equity, we could do that. And I'm not opposed to issuing equity for growth and, and we have a growth plan that is incredible here, especially you know, articulating around that incremental $10 billion. But we want to be very judicious with issuing equity.

But we think there's a lot of different levers that we can pull. Securitization, hybrids and then potentially over the longer term, if we had to issue incremental equity, we would consider that. But again, very focused on FFO to debt and also executing on this kind of historic $54 billion growth plan.

Shar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Perfect. And then just lastly, obviously a lot of load growth and you guys have that new CAPEX upside disclosures specifically on the 20 gigs of load you're leaning on. Just want to get a sense on how much of that is Ohio and on the dual tariff settlements that are out there. Can the differences be bridged and what if the commission's order swings against your settlement? I know Bill, you've been very active on the stakeholder engagement side. Just want to get sense there. Thanks.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

So we're very obviously focused on the, on the rate case and on the tariff filing for data centers. A lot of discussion going on. We're clearly looking to try and find a solution for bringing these folks into our system and bringing the economic development opportunities with us. And so we're continuing to look. If you think about the data center story that we have, In December alone, AEP Ohio added nearly 450 megawatts of data center load from AWS and MEDA. So very strong. Looking ahead, we anticipate adding similar amounts of load almost every month through 25. We've got over 4.7 gigawatts of data processing load contracted to begin service this year.

And then while most of this load, to your point, is concentrated in Ohio and actually Texas, we also have nearly a gigawatt contracted to come online in Indiana. So that's extending our growth into the vertically integrated utility segment as well. So I would note that both Google and AWS have recently begun service in Indiana.

So that's a very positive for us. And they're going to continue to ramp up progressively over the next, over the next several years. So this growth certainly underscores our commitment to economic development and highlights the significant opportunities ahead. But clearly we're going to make sure that this doesn't fall on the shoulders over our existing customers and make sure that the appropriate parties who are Driving the incremental cost will pay for the incremental cost.

Shar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Perfect. Trevor, big congrats to you and the AEP team. I know you're going to do really fantastic there. So big congrats on phase two.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Sure. I really appreciate it. Excited to be here. This is an incredible story and quite the team here. So thank you.

Shar Pourreza
Analyst at Guggenheim Partners

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

We'll move next to Ross Valor at Bank of America.

Russ Balor
Analyst at Bank of America

Morning, Trevor, Welcome. Welcome to aep.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Thanks, Russ.

Russ Balor
Analyst at Bank of America

So I just want to dig into maybe the data center tariffs. You talked about sort of protecting yourself around sort of stranded cost risk or minimum take risk. So in that tariff, you know, have you disclosed what that rate is versus maybe other industrial commercial rates? Is it like a minimum power take requirement that's in there? And what kind of terms are you looking at in those tariffs that you filed?

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

So the tariffs are really driven by the cost of the incremental project. And so there's not a specific, say, price in the tariff unless until we understand what the cost of the incremental load is going to be or the incremental transmission is going to be to serve that load. And so it really is a case for us to protect the existing customer base and that the driver behind the data center cost will be covered essentially by the company that's. That's requiring it. So we feel very good about where we sit. I would say there are a couple of differences in the tariffs. If you look across the states, for instance, in Ohio, that tariff is very much focused on data centers. Whereas if you look at the similar proposal in Indiana, that is a broader tariff that would apply to any and all large loads that are similar to a data center. So some minor differences across the states, but generally the same purpose holds, which is make the customer who's driving the incremental cost pay for the incremental cost and put it in place for a longer period of time.

So that we know as we're building out this incredible investment that if the customer goes away in year six or seven, we still have coverage for some of those costs and it's not stranded and placed on the shoulders of our existing customers. So very, very positive outcome for us. I think it sets us up and I don't think that it's been a detriment to the economic growth we have.

If you look at the overall increases that are already signed up, we have significant growth in accordance with these tariffs. So very, very, very strong interest still, even though these tariffs are going into place.

Russ Balor
Analyst at Bank of America

That's great, Bill. Thank you. And then, Trevor, Maybe one for you. You mentioned securitization as a avenue for maybe some of that equity need. Do you have a scaling of that versus the 2 billion need in the current plan or have you sort of not walked through all of that yet?

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, we're still working through that with the various states, Ross. But you know, honestly I think you could look at it and securitization could, if successful, could potentially, you know, be a big chunk of that remaining 2 billion. So you know, right now, if you. The way I think of it is we kind of laid out the 5.35 billion over a five year period. The 2.8 billion from the sale transaction really takes care of a big chunk of that in the immediate term here. And then we have a lot of other levers to pull over the remaining four years of the plan to solve for that 2 billion. But securitization could be, if successful, a real win because it could help the customers with regards to rates, but it can also help us with regards to the need for the cash that would fill that gap on the $54 billion plan that we laid out.

Russ Balor
Analyst at Bank of America

Perfect, thank you. And we can squeeze one more in. Back to Becky. Bill, you mentioned FMRS and kind of how you're trying to very early stages looking at that. But you know, under the right risk structure in other states we've sort of seen like this idea where, you know, the off taker would put in a significant proportion of the capital and take more of the risk into that project. Are you thinking about similar structures there or how far have you kind of walked down the thought process of what that structure would look like or might look like?

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, thanks for that question. Obviously very interested in SMRS as a technology and that's really driven by the fact that our major customers are also interested in that as a solution. And as we noted, we've started with the early site permit work in Indiana and Virginia and have signed MoUs with various parties to support that type of work. We did put in our Tier 1 application with the DOE for one of the sites and the Tier 2 application for the other site to try and get some support for those at a broader look with regards to how we would think about this.

Clearly I'm not going to put the company at risk in any type of a move as a first of a kind type of technology. And so as we've been talking with the potential customers, we haven't got to any specific arrangements or how this might look at this stage. But certainly there's discussions ongoing to see if there's a way to do this, clearly the SMR technology providers, somebody needs to be first and somebody needs to step up and figure out how they're going to deliver their product and back it.

I mean, this is one of those situations where to me, I'm buying a technology from somebody and it should work and it should be at a price that is very understandable and protected. And so I'm very excited about where we sit with regards to discussions. But I would say we're quite a ways away from having anything firmed up or really any firm structure at this point.

But whatever we ultimately end up with, we'll be very principled and disciplined on our side of this to make sure that our shareholders and our customers are protected from any significant types of negative outcomes.

Russ Balor
Analyst at Bank of America

That's great. Thank you. And Trevor, congratulations again on the New World. Wish you nothing but success.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Really appreciate it, Ross. Thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Steve Fleshman at Wolf Research.

Steve Fleishman
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hi, good morning. Congrats, Trevor, as well. Let me echo that. So just on the, I guess on the upside to the capital plan and particularly the transmission. So for example, there's the, these PJM transmission that the joint venture that you have and the light that's being decided the next month or so is that that would be upside to the plan, that's not in the plan, things like that.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, Steve, that's right. That would be upside to the plan. So, you know, here again, what we've got is, you know, the $54 billion plan that has very definitive things in it, and we really aren't putting things into the plan that, that aren't for sure. And so then when you look at this 10 billion, a lot of this is coming to fruition over the next kind of months here. And so we're going to be pretty excited about rolling out kind of in a normal cadence on the third quarter call, a revision to the $54 billion plan. But yeah, that would be upside.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

And Steve, just to add to that, just to add that a little bit specifically to pjm, you, you probably know we've announced the joint planning agreements with Dominion and FirstEnergy to propose those projects through the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan. We expect PJM approval in the first quarter on those projects. And so again, as Trevor noted, all of those, if they would come to fruition, would be upside.

Steve Fleishman
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay, and then you might have answered this, Trevor, and I missed it. But just in the event that you see that capital plan come up, how should we think about funding for incremental capital yeah.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

So again, you know, Steve, I think on the incremental capital side, we really do have a lot of positives here. Again, with the $2.8 billion coming in this year, that's going to set us up really well for call it roughly half of the equity needs that we laid out before. And then with securitization and other things, that's really going to kind of take us a long way to filling that gap. At the end of the day, I'm not opposed to, you know, issuing equity for growth and this kind of growth. I think that really makes sense. But at the end of the day, you know, there's a lot of other things that we're working on internally as we right size this organization to get costs in line with where this is going as well as other opportunities. We're looking at that. I want to be somewhat careful here in how we say it, but there is capital allocation internally looking to support this growth plan and equity. We take equity very seriously here. We know it's very precious, but we're not opposed to issuing equity for growth purposes.

Steve Fleishman
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Yeah. Okay. And then I guess two questions on data centers. First, just a high level curious after the deep seq, kind of freak out, just what kind of color are you getting from your customers on their plans? Is anything change good or bad in terms of the commentary and plans by the customers?

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Really no change in plan for us at all. It's been full speed ahead. And when the deep seq came out, we had conversations with a number of our customers and none of those individuals spoke in any way that we would be seeing a change. And so I think, at least for us, I can't speak for others obviously, but it continues to be full speed ahead.

Steve Fleishman
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Okay. And then lastly on the Bloom partnership and the like, just, you know, I think you had made a firm order for the 100 megawatts and sounds like you have customers for that. Just how are you feeling about the likelihood to get, you know, into that full gigawatt or is it too early to kind of say?

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Well, first, I'm really excited about the customers that we have that have taken up the first hundred megawatts that, that we announced when we talked about the supply agreement with Bloom last November.

I feel very good about where we're at with those customers. It's, it's obviously proven that it's a viable opportunity for others to use in order to speed their ability to build their data centers and get online significantly sooner than waiting for perhaps five to seven years for a grid interconnect and so I like where we're at with this technology. We're obviously on the leading edge from an innovation perspective. AEP is solving problems for these data centers that while others are maybe just issuing press releases, we're actually getting to solutions for these folks. And so we'll keep you updated, obviously, as our agreement with Bloom allows for further expansions up to the 1 GW mark. And keep in mind, I would note also that this potential capital outlay is also not included in the current $54 billion capital plan as we've talked about, but it is part of the 10 billion incremental investment opportunity that we're currently evaluating.

And so obviously if more of that comes on, we'll have more updates for you. But overall, again, the feedback on this innovation and solution for customers has been extremely positive.

Steve Fleishman
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Yep. Great. Thank you. Appreciate it.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Thanks, Steve.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

We'll move next to Jeremy Twinette at JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hi, good morning.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Good morning.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

And Trevor, congratulations as well.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Jeremy. I appreciate it.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Just wanted to start off, I guess, picking up with the custom solutions as you outlined there, you know, being kind of bridge solutions, I was wondering if you could provide a bit more detail what it means from the AP side potentially, just if we could frame what that could look like from CapEx or any other way to kind of think about that, you know, potential in specifically is this just wires or other elements as well as it relates to aep.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Sure. Well, first and foremost, again, in the spirit of protecting our existing customers for these deals, all costs for the fuel cell projects will be covered by the large customers that are under standalone contracts with aep. And these are very customer specific and they'll need state commission approval.

And so we're very excited about how this is rolling out and the fact that each of these individual customers, again, will, will cover the costs that are associated with the project. As far as the capital side, Trevor, maybe add a little bit on that or how we're thinking about it.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, and what I'd like to do on that, Jeremy, is roll that out if and when that comes to fruition. But that's all kind of part of that $10 billion upside. So we haven't really disclosed specifics around that, but expect more of that to come in the normal cadence. The only thing I would also add, Bill, is that I think AEP has had a rich history of being an innovator in this industry, whether it's being the first to kind of have 765kv lines all the way to this solution. To help our commercial industrial load come on with this bloom solution. But as Bill said, we're going to do it in a very disciplined way and it kind of talks to what AEP has done over the years to be a leader.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Got it. Thank you for that. And just pivoting here to West Virginia, if you could. Just wondering if you could provide any incremental color on stakeholder conversations and just the state of, I guess, stakeholder relationships in the state at this point and how that has evolved over time.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

I really appreciate that question. I've been very focused on West Virginia since I joined AEP last August, have spent a considerable amount of time in the state and talking with key stakeholders, including the prior administration as well as members of the current administration. I would say that right now we were very innovative. Again, in the filing that we put in, we corrected the deficiencies that we had and put in a very robust filing. But inside of that filing, we also offered the commission a separate solution for them to consider. As I noted in my remarks, the hearing is in June and we expect a commission decision in the third quarter.

We'll obviously see progress as the intervener testimony is due in April, rebuttal testimony is due in May, and the proposed securitization option that we have on the table is not in our finance in our current financial plans. So again, if it does come to pass, that would be a good adjustment. But we did include it in the filing as an option and really purposely to support customer affordability.

This option is a very strong option that helps reduce the cost to customers. And so we really look forward to collaborating with all of the stakeholders there and achieving a favorable outcome for really all parties. And I think that so far as the process has gone through, we've gotten positive feedback on how we approach this.

Jeremy Tonet
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Got it. Thank you for that.

Operator

We'll go next to Durgesh chopra at evercore isi.

Durgesh Chopra
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hey team. Good morning, Trevor. Welcome. I look forward, look forward. Listen, I just had two clarification questions. A lot of discussions on the topics I'm going to ask you on. But just to clarify, Bill, I think you discussed the large load tariff in Ohio and decision in Q3 by the Commission is, as I understand it, that data center customers are not part of that settlement or the technology customers are not part of that settlement. Is that completely off the table or could you still work in agreement with, I guess what I'm trying to get at with this, is there an active dialogue, conversations happening with them or is it just now in the hands of the Commission.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

So you're correct, there's actually two settlements that were being discussed. There was a settlement amongst the data centers themselves that they filed and then there was a second settlement that was ourselves, plus the commission staff, plus some other large load entities that was filed. Both of those went through the hearing process. And then as I said, there's basically now in the rebuttal and hearing, excuse me, intervenor testimony, rebuttal process. I would say that there's continuing discussions going on as always as you go through these processes. But at this point I would say we're really into waiting for the commission to issue their ruling and we'll see what happens. Again, we're very open. These are our customers. We want to work with our customers, we want to find solutions for them just like we did with the Bloom Energy deal. And so we'll always try to find a way forward. But we do have certain principles that we want to make sure stay in place, which is good protection for our existing, for our existing customer base.

Durgesh Chopra
Analyst at Evercore ISI

That's very helpful. Color, Bill. Thank you. And then turn back to you just a little bit more color on the 2025 financing plans. Obviously congrats on the asset sale. That's a sort of big bite at the apple from the, from the overall equity in the plan. And then your commentary about, you know, the deferred fuel balance while taking your effort or debt down but still keeping you comfortably above the downgrade threshold. Should we take all that to mean that from an equity standpoint you're done for 2025 or could you still kind of punch in, you know, more equity as you think about? Just I'm focused on 2025. Not sure if you can answer that or not, but just thinking about whether you're done for 2025 or not.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah. So I think, you know, Dhargesh, the thing that I look at is, you know, the $2.8 billion of cash coming in the door when we close that transaction will really go a long way to, you know, getting what our needs are right now because really, you know, when we laid out that 5.35, that was over a five year period. So over half of that is coming in in year one. That being said, you know, again, we are really focused on this growth of the $10 billion and seeing how we can get that into our plan as quickly as possible. So, you know, and then there's other things we're dealing with as well, you know, with, as Bill just mentioned, the potential securitizations. So a lot moving around Right now.

But I think we're in that great position with this transaction that I kind of got the benefit of stepping into after Chuck and Bill had kind of solved that issue that it really takes a lot of the pressure off of 25 right now. But again, my commitment is to be in a situation certainly where we would be above our downgrade thresholds. And this plan, fortunately, as we've got it right now with the $2.8 billion, even with a deferred fuel adjustment mechanism, keeps us above the 13% and you know, it puts us in a good position going forward. But again, a lot of moving parts around the growth and that's what we're excited about right now is this incremental growth opportunity.

Durgesh Chopra
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Got it. Appreciate that discussion there. Thanks. Thanks Trevor.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Thanks Dagesh.

Operator

We'll move next to Nick Campanella at Barclays.

Nicholas Campanella
Analyst at Barclays

Hey, good morning and congrats to Trevor. Welcome to Columbus. And you know Chuck, if you're in the room, congrats on your retirement too. So hey, I just wanted to just a couple follow ups. When you announced the transmission sale, you kind of said it's 1.7% accretive, like on average to the plan. And can you just talk about the flexibility that that offers you as you work to kind of add this capital to the plan and strengthen the balance sheet. And you know, I guess where I'm heading is like when we get to the end of this year, like is this transaction lengthening the 6 to 8 or do you expect kind of a step higher in at the 1.7% level? Thanks.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, yeah. So Nick, you know, to kind of convert that into an EPS, you know, that's roughly 11 or 12 cents of on a full year basis that this transaction is accretive. But again it depends on the timing of when we close it during the year. And so that will kind of, you have to take that into consideration as it gets towards the end of the year on what that really does. My view is I think we put out the range of $5.75 to $5.95 and you know, we'll be at this point in that range, you know, with the transaction and you know, in a good shape with regards to credit.

So again it probably the later it goes into the year, the less impact it has on 25 with regards to the accretion. But it more really does help with where we're going to be on the credit metrics.

Nicholas Campanella
Analyst at Barclays

Right, okay. And then just how are you kind of thinking about further portfolio management at this point? I mean, the transmission sale is a great data point and I definitely note like kind of the clear focus here on Indiana, Ohio and Texas. And just do you guys still see opportunity to kind of prune things in the portfolio if it's accretive to your plan?

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, you know, again, I think on any type of ma, we wouldn't really speak to it. But I tell you, the thing that we're most excited about is investing $54 billion at one times rate base. And if you think about that, that's basically the size of our market cap right now with a potential upside of an additional $10 billion. So our view is we want to get scale and scope and we believe we're growing this business and we think we've got great footprints over a large area that helps us to mitigate risk. And so from the at the end of the day, you know, I look across the portfolio and believe we've got a really good footprint relative to our competitors. And so I'm very, very positive about what I've stepped into here and feel that this is really good. But Bill, I'm not sure if you want to add anything on this.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

I think again, as Trevor noted, we've got a tremendous opportunity in front of us. And as a company, we are going to drive ourselves to be the biggest and the best energy infrastructure company in this country. I mean, again, it's in our name. We're American Electric Power. We're going to power America. And as Trevor noted, the opportunity is almost unlimited for us going forward. And I have very strong confidence that we're going to be able to deliver and execute.

Nicholas Campanella
Analyst at Barclays

All right, that's great. Excited to see it and have a great day. Thank you.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Thank you.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Thanks, Nick.

Operator

We'll move next to Carly Davenport at Goldman Sachs.

Carly Davenport
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Hey, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe just one quick one for me. Just as you think about the generation needs across the portfolio to accommodate this load growth, I know you referenced some of the gas filings at PSO and SWEPCO in the opening comments. Can you just talk about the status of procurement of key equipment like turbines to execute on those plans?

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Sure. I appreciate the question. We have a very strong generation plan that has been developed within AEP and a bit of it also predated me with regards to looking at strategies around procuring turbines, procuring transformers and other key equipment. I'm very confident in the plan that the team has. Our procurement strategy is strong and we have a lot of activity out in the market right now. We're we're doing RFPs for a number of our states. We have significant IRP activity going on and obviously there's a growing energy demand out there, which is really why we're leading the efforts in the industry to try to find solutions for them, like in the near term bloom and in the longer term SMRs. And so we'll be all over this.

I'm confident in our team and I'm confident in the fact that we're going to deliver what our states want from a generation plan. And clearly, as the year goes on, we'll be providing more updates in that area.

Carly Davenport
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Great. Thanks so much for the caller. I'll leave it there.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Thanks, Carly.

Operator

We have time for one more question. And that question comes from Julian demoulin Smith at Jefferies.

James Ward
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Hi, team, it's James Ward on for Julian. How are you?

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, good. Good morning.

James Ward
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Morning. Yeah, thanks for fitting us in here at the end. Very thorough. Q and A covered pretty much all the questions that we had. Did have one that was remaining, which is just on the ATM that you filed. It mentioned that 400 million had been already issued in combination with the 2.8 billion of net cash proceeds that we'd expect to receive, you know, to see receive in the second half of the year. Do those two meet your 20, 25 equity needs or should we assume any further usage of the ATM in 25 or is it just a 26 and beyond tool? Thank you.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, look, as I said, you know, James, we're continuing to evaluate all of that. The good news is we do have access to the, the 1.3 billion that's remaining under the ATM and we can always hit that if we need to. But again, right now I think we've got a very positive situation that we will be, you know, getting the $2.8 billion coming in later this year. And then as we look to the $10 billion growth opportunities here, you know, we will continue to evaluate that. But I think, you know, largely you've got it right with the ATM in place and what we're doing with the drip program and the cash coming in and the securitizations that potentially could come to fruition by the end of this year, we're in good shape.

James Ward
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Gotcha. Gotcha. Really quick follow up there. I guess from the 2.55 billion that you had less 500 million or so for the drip, 100 per year, the 1.7 for the ATM, that 350, it would seem kind of perfect for a JSN or some sort of equity content or Equity linked security. So I guess that kind of fits with what you've described. Is that a reasonable way to think about it? And then I just had one more on the 10 billion.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, no, I think absolutely you're thinking about it correctly. There's a lot of levers for us to use here as we continue to look at things. And so again it's a very positive with the $2.8 billion and then securitizations and other equity like instruments are all very positive. And then if need be we do have that $1.3 billion ATM. But again we're in good shape here.

James Ward
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Terrific. The last one I'll leave you with. I know that you've answered one or two questions already on the 10. Just wondered if there was a rule of thumb a couple years ago at EEI the talk was all about 30% or 50% or whatever percent of incremental capex. And I get there's certain thresholds. If you get a billion of the 10, it's a different scenario than if you get all 10 of the 10. But any rule of thumb you can give us on high level thinking about the amount of equity or equity like portion that you'd be looking to finance of that incremental capex versus debt financing.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

Yeah, the biggest thing that I would say is we're excited to roll that out, you know, in a normal cadence on our third quarter call. And again there's a lot of moving parts that we're managing here and we were going to finance it in the most efficient way possible to ensure we can continue to meet the needs of our customers, but also to deliver on value to our shareholders. And that's what we're very focused on.

James Ward
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Trevor I. Mihalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at American Electric Power

I appreciate it.

Operator

And that concludes our Q and A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Bill Fuhrman for closing remarks.

William J. Fehrman
President and Chief Executive Officer at American Electric Power

Thank you. We appreciate everyone joining us on the call today. I'd like to close with just a few summary remarks. First, very exciting times are ahead for AEP as we put our robust capital plan to work, as you've heard and continue to grow the business while delivering shareholder value.

Second, I'm very confident we can unlock the incredible value in this company by advancing our long term strategy and providing safe, affordable and reliable service across our large footprint. And then third, Trevor and Darcy will be hitting the road actually in March meeting with many of you and discussing AEP's very strong and comprehensive value proposition. And finally, if there are any follow up items, please reach out to our IR team with your questions.

So thank you again for joining us today. This concludes our call.

Operator

And again, this concludes today's conference call. You may access the replay for today's conference by dialing 1-800-770-2030 and entering the conference ID of 133-6080 followed by pound.

The replay will be available until Thursday, February 20, 2025 at 11:59pm Eastern Time. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Corporate Executives
  • Darcy Reese
    Vice President, Investor Relations
  • William J. Fehrman
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Trevor I. Mihalik
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

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