Bio-Rad Laboratories Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Thank you for standing-by. My name is Prilla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the 4th-Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results Conference Call and Webcast. All lines have been placed on-mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press followed by the number-one on your telephone keypad. And if you would like to draw your question, please press one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Edward Chung, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Edward Chung
Vice President, Investor Relations at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will review the 4th-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results and provide an update on key business trends for Biorad. With me on the call today are Norman Schwartz, our Chief Executive Officer; Jon Divincenzo, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Roop Lakkaraju, Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin our review, I would like to remind everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements about management's goals, plans and expectations, our future financial performance and other matters. These statements are based on assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our actual results may differ materially from these plans, goals and expectations. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, and I encourage you to review our filings with the SEC where we discussed in detail the risk factors in our business. The company does not intend to update any forward-looking statements made during the call today. Finally, our remarks today will include references to non-GAAP financials, including net income and diluted earnings per share, which are financial measures that are not defined under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Investors should review the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP results contained in our earnings release.With that, I will now turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Jon Divincenzo.

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Hello, and thank you everyone for joining today's call. Since joining BioRad five months ago, I'm excited to share the progress we've made in aligning our strategic priorities, focusing on execution and achieving key milestones in our transformation. First, I'm pleased to report that we successfully met our revised 2024 guidance for both revenue and operating margin as presented last August. Our Clinical Diagnostics business performed slightly better than forecasted, while our Life Science segment was affected by continued softness in the biopharma market. Despite some revenue challenges, we achieved gross margin expansion in 2024 through our productivity improvements, driven by our lean initiatives in our manufacturing sites and supply-chain, execution of our global footprint rationalization and effective cost management. These will be sustained improvements in our P&L in 2025. I'm also excited to announce that we've entered into a binding offer to acquire Stillar Technologies, a move we believe will significantly complement our digital PCR portfolio. Going-forward, platform would enhance our product strategy in applied research and clinical diagnostics, allowing us to expand our offerings in digital PCR. We expect the transaction to close by the end of Q3 2025, subject to consultation with relevant employee representatives, regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. Additionally, we've taken further steps to streamline our cost structure. These actions are designed to better position BioRad for success as we move toward our strategic and financial goals for 2025 and beyond. Looking across our markets, we saw the continued trends we've experienced over the past year. Diagnostics performed as expected with broad-based global demand. However, the Asia-Pacific region saw a decline due to the earlier-than-expected adoption of a reimbursement change for diabetes testing in China during the 4th-quarter. This adjustment not related to volume-based procurement standardizes rates for certain clinical diagnostic tests nationwide. We don't currently anticipate further reimbursement changes for diagnostics in 2025. Keep in mind that China represents high single-digit percentage of BioRed's total revenue. In Life Science, we are seeing a modest recovery, though demand in biopharma in China remained soft. We did see a seasonal uptick from academic customers and biopharma research accounts, and our process chromatography sales improved in the second-half of 2024 and we expect growth in this area in 2025. We are also encouraged with the increased activity in new programs using our media, which bodes well for the future outlook for our process chromatography business. For our Droplet digital PCR portfolio, we saw continued strong demand for reagents and consumables with low double-digit growth year-over-year. Interest in our assays for oncology and cell and gene therapy applications remains high and we're maintaining strong wind loss ratios for our platform. Entering 2025, we expect a gradual recovery, particularly in the biopharma sector. While demand for instruments remains soft, we are having more conversations with biopharma customers and building a healthy order funnel. However, this gradual pace of recovery is likely to impact the uptake of life science instrumentation in the short-term. In the academic segment, research funding globally has been soft throughout 2024 and we have not factored in a change in dynamics for 2025. However, we need more information to understand the impact, if any, of last week's announcement on the cap for US NIH indirect funding. And in Europe, funding remains mixed with modest increases in Germany and the UK, while France continues to be soft. And in Asia, we're seeing some early signs of improvement in resource funding in China due to its stimulus programs. So in 2025, our focus remains on operational and commercial excellence. We aim to increase consumables attachment and prioritize e-commerce as part of our growth strategy. And as I've discussed with many of you, innovation remains at the heart of BioRad's long-term growth strategy. Beyond our anticipated acquisition of Stilla, we're excited about key updates to our portfolio, including a refreshed NGC chromatography platform, the Pro imaging system and a new version of our QX 600 digital PCR system for the diagnostic market. We're also expanding our process chromatography portfolio with the launch of a larger 45 centimeter prepacked column and additional Nuvia resins that enhance purification capabilities. Our QX continuum program is making significant progress and we continue to see it as an important part of our digital PCR portfolio in 2025 and beyond. So given the moderated revenue growth outlook, we view 2025 as a stepping stone towards stronger, profitable growth. We will continue driving innovation, enhancing our supply-chain and implementing cost and productivity initiatives to support margin improvement. As the lifecy -- life science market normalizes, we believe is well-positioned to leverage top-line growth. So thank you for your continued support. I will now pass you to Roop to review the financial results.

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thank you, Jon. Good afternoon. I'd like to start with a review of the 4th-quarter and full-year 2024 results. Net sales for the 4th-quarter of 2024 were approximately $668 million, which represents a 2% decline on a reported basis versus $681 million in Q4 of 2023. On a currency-neutral basis, this represents a 2.3% year-over-year decrease and was due to lower sales in our Life Science segment. Sales of the Life Science Group in the 4th-quarter of 2024 were $275 million compared to $291 million in Q4 of 2023, which is a decline of 5.5% on a reported basis and approximately 6% on a currency-neutral basis. Neutral sales decreased across all regions. Excluding process chromatography sales, core Life Science Group revenue increased 2.5% year-over-year and 2% on a currency-neutral basis. Core Life Sciences growth was driven by consumables sales that improved low-single digits sequentially and a mid-single digit year-over-year. Sales of the Clinical Diagnostics Group in the 4th-quarter of 2024 were approximately $393 million compared to $389 million in Q4 of 2023, which is an increase of 0.9% on a reported basis and 0.7% on a currency-neutral basis. Growth of diagnostics was primarily driven by increased demand for our quality-control and blood typing products. Offsetting the higher demand, our diabetes portfolio experienced a revenue decline due to the intra-quarter China reimbursement change that reduced sales by an estimated mid-single-digit million or approximately 75 basis-points and affected Q4 gross margin by the same amount. On a geographic basis, currency-neutral sales increased in EMEA and Americas. Q4 reported GAAP gross margin was 51.2% as compared to 53.8% in the 4th-quarter of 2023. The decrease in gross margin was driven by a restructuring expense to further rightsize our footprint and the impact of the reimbursement reduction for diabetes tests in China. As Jon alluded to earlier, we are continuing to proactively manage our cost structure, including the recent implementation of a 5% workforce reduction to further align headcount for our global organization. The impact of these actions is contemplated in our guidance and should yield savings of $50 million to $55 million in 2025 with fully annualized savings of approximately $60 million to $65 million in 2026. SG&A expenses for 4th-quarter of 2024 were approximately $204 million or 30.6% of sales compared to $207 million or 30.4% in Q4 of 2023. Research and development expense in the 4th-quarter was approximately $80 million or 11.9% of sales compared to $64 million or 9.4% of sales in Q4 of 2023. Q4 operating income was approximately $58 million or 8.7% of sales compared to $95 million or 14% of sales in Q4 of 2023. During the quarter, interest and other income resulted in net other income of $9 million, which is unchanged versus the prior year. The change in fair market value of equity security holdings, which are substantially related to the ownership of Sartorius A&G shares, led to a $977 million loss, which resulted in a reported net loss of $716 million or $25.57 diluted loss per share. The effective tax-rate for the 4th-quarter of 2024 was 21.2% compared to 18.4% for the same-period in 2023. The effective tax-rate reported in these periods was primarily affected by the accounting treatment of our equity securities. Moving to the non-GAAP results. Non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude certain atypical and unique items that impact both gross and operating margins and other income are detailed in the reconciliation table in our press release. 4th-quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 53.9% compared to 54.4% in Q4 of 2023. 4th-quarter non-GAAP operating margin was 13.8% compared to 15.5% in 2023. Non-GAAP effective tax-rate for the 4th-quarter of 2024 was 20.9% compared to 22.3% for the same-period in 2023. Finally, non-GAAP net income for the 4th-quarter of 2024 was $81 million or $2.90 diluted earnings per share. And now for the full-year results. Net sales for the full-year of 2024 were $2,567 million, which represent a 3.9% decline on a reported basis versus $2.671 million in 2023. On a currency-neutral basis, this represents a 3.6% decrease and was driven primarily by lower sales in our Life Science segment. Sales of the Life Science Group for 2024 were approximately $1.28 million compared to million in 2023, which is a decline of 12.8% on a reported basis and 12.6% on a currency-neutral basis. Our 10 years of sales decreased across all regions. Sales of the Clinical Diagnostics Group for 2024 were $1,538 million compared to $1,489 million in 2023, which represents a 3.3% increase on a reported basis and 3.7% growth on a currency-neutral basis. Growth of diagnostics was primarily driven by increased demand for our quality-control and blood typing products. On a geographic basis, currency-neutral revenue grew across all three regions. As we had targeted, overall full-year non-GAAP gross margin reached 55% compared to 54.2% in 2023. The year-over-year margin increase was driven mainly by the impact of operational improvements made throughout the year and a favorable product mix. Full-year non-GAAP SG&A expense was $799 million or 31.1% of sales compared to $815 million or 30.5% in 2023. The decrease in dollars of SG&A expense was primarily due to a reduction in discretionary spending and lower employee-related costs. Full-year non-GAAP R&D was $282 million or 11% of sales versus $255 million or 9.5% in 2023. The increase in non-GAAP R&D was primarily due to a onetime acquired in-process research and development expense of $30 million related to the Sabre Bio acquisition. Full-year non-GAAP operating margin was 12.9% compared to 14.2% in 2023, which reflects the effects of revenue decline and the aforementioned in-process R&D expense, offset by favorable product mix and the impact of operational improvements. Lastly, the non-GAAP effective tax-rate for the full-year of 2024 was 23.6%. Moving to the balance sheet, total cash and short-term investments at the end of Q4 2024 were $1.665 million compared to $1,628 million at the end of Q3 2024. Inventory at the end of Q4 was $760 million, down from $804 million in the prior quarter as we continue to make progress on reducing inventory. For the 4th-quarter of 2024, net cash generated from operating activities was approximately $124 million compared to $81 million for Q4 of 2023. For the full-year of 2024, net cash generated from operations improved to $455 million versus $375 million in 2023 and was driven by the focused efforts in improving working capital efficiency. Net capital expenditures for the 4th-quarter of 2024 were approximately $43 million and full-year net capital expenditures were $166 million. Depreciation and amortization for the 4th-quarter was $39 million and $152 million for the full-year. The 4th-quarter of 2024 free-cash flow was approximately $81 million, which compares to $39 million in Q4 of '23. For the full-year of '24, free-cash flow was approximately $290 million, which compares to $218 million for the full-year 2023. Full-year 2024 buybacks totaled 691,000 shares for approximately $202 million. And over the past years, we've deployed over $630 million for share repurchases. Considering the current dynamic environment, we expect to do further share repurchases and have approximately $577 million available for buybacks under the current Board authorized program. Moving on to the non-GAAP guidance for 2025. We're guiding a currency-neutral revenue growth for the full-year to be between 1.5% and 3.5%, which excludes any revenue from acquisitions. On an as-reported basis, Q1 is expected to be approximately 5.7% to 7% lower on a year-over-year basis and then sequentially improving each quarter. The Life Science Group year-over-year currency-neutral revenue growth is expected to be between 1.5% and 3.5% with our Process Chromatography business poised to increase high-single-digits. Note that this outlook contemplates a soft dynamic, but soft academic environment, but does not consider last week's proposed NIH indirect spending actions. Overall, NIH funding is not a significant component of our total sales. Specifically, we estimate that the US academic and government segment represents approximately a high single-digit percent of revenue. A subset of our US academic and government segment is federally funded research, including the NIH. We estimate our total federally funded research exposure as approximately 4% of our revenue. For the Diagnostics Group, we estimate currency-neutral revenue growth to be between 2% and 3%. As a reminder, our growth outlook for clinical diagnostics includes approximately 100 basis-point impact in 2025 due to the partner's exit from the donor screening business and approximately a 60 basis impact from the reimbursement reduction for diabetes testing in China. Full-year non-GAAP gross margin is projected to be between 55% and 55.5% and includes the approximately 60 basis-point incremental gross margin headwind related to the reimbursement reduction for our diabetes business. On a quarterly basis, we expect Q1's gross margin to be like Q4 2024. Subsequent to-Q1, we expect steady sequential improvement because of the continued productivity and efficiency benefit from our operational initiatives and improved sales volume. We look to target exiting the year in the high 55% gross margin range. Full-year non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be between 13% and 13.5%. This includes the 60 basis-point effect from the reimbursement change as mentioned earlier, as well as the headwinds from the strengthening of the US dollar, representing approximately $70 million or 250 basis-point headwind through 2025 revenue. Revenue and an approximate 40 basis-point drag on operating margin. In addition, we are making nice progress with Sabre Bio, which we purchased last summer and plan to achieve a key development milestone in 2025. The result is a potential $10 million R&D expense or a 40 basis-point impact, which would impact both GAAP and non-GAAP results and has been considered in our guidance range. We estimate the non-GAAP full-year tax-rate to be approximately 23%. Capex is projected to be approximately $160 million to $180 million as we continue to invest in our infrastructure to support our multiyear transformation. We anticipate full-year cash -- free-cash flow of approximately $310 million to $330 million for 2025 as compared to $290 million for 2024. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Norman for his remarks.

Norman Schwartz
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thanks, Roop. Just maybe take a minute and build-on Jon and Roop's comments. I think that 2024 was certainly a productive year. First, we assembled a new leadership team that's been tasked with driving performance at BioRad. They've certainly hit the ground running, kind of focused on improving top-line growth and driving margin expansion, all despite the headwinds in several of our key end-markets. As for the innovation and building on our core portfolio, I think we've advanced our DDPCR platform with expanded applications, introduced new key portfolio refreshed products like the imaging system and grown our cell biology product offerings. I think it's important that we also made investments in companies with potentially best-in-class diagnostics using our DDPCR technology like gene oxcopy and. To support our growth initiatives, we have looked to M&A to complement what we're doing internally. I think a good example is our anticipated acquisition of Stilla, which should broaden and accelerate our ability to provide enabling tools in the digital PCR space. As mentioned, we also recently-acquired Sabre Bio, an entirely new platform utilizing our core droplet technology and really enabling high-throughput discovery of novel antibodies and T-cell receptors, principally for the biopharma market. So all-in all, I guess I'd like to reiterate that we view our strategy and our focus for the future growth of the company to be very much intact. In Clinical Diagnostics, our business has returned to its normalized growth rate post pandemic. And with leading market positions here globally for our core platforms and are investing to support their growth while building a position in new molecular diagnostics segments. Similarly, in-life science, we continue to focus on the biopharma area, especially for our digital PCR and process chromatography products as well as new development around cell biology. And of course, we continue to invest to broaden our offerings in digital PCR and other focus areas in our academic markets. I guess in summary, overall, I believe we're well-aligned and well-positioned to drive long-term growth in our markets as we move through this current dynamic period. And thank you all for your support and interest in BioRad. So with that, maybe I'll turn it back over to Ed. Ed, that concludes our prepared remarks today. We'll now open the line to take your questions. Operator?

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Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have dialed-in and would like to ask a question, please press the Start one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, you may press the start one again. One moment please for your first question. And your first question comes from the line of Patrick Donnelly with Citi. Please go-ahead.

Elizabeth H. Speyer
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Hi, you have Lizzie on for Patrick. Thanks for taking my questions. I just -- I guess just on the Life Sciences guide, what does that imply, I guess, for DDPCR growth at 1.5% to 3.5%? I know you said process Chrome was high-single-digit, but just wondering what DDPCR is considered?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. So from a DDPCR overall, we gave an over -- it's more towards kind of the 1% to 2% from a DDPCR with process growing in the high single-digit range.

Elizabeth H. Speyer
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Got it.

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

And then just to reinforce. And as a reminder, the acquisition that we just announced our proposed acquisition that we just announced isn't included in that range. And so we would see that as potentially being additive depending upon where that closes this year.

Elizabeth H. Speyer
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Got it. And then just on the margin guide -- the gross margin guide for this year, the 55% to 55.5%. I guess, can you walk-through the different scenarios like what gets you the high-end, will get you to the low-end and just be curious there, but that's it for me. Thank you.

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah, of course. So obviously, the midpoint being about at 13.25%. The ability to march up is really end-market dependent primarily. And so academia is soft as we come into the year. Biotech, biopharma, although there are some signals of improvement, still remains relatively soft. And I think as we think about how China continues to evolve, can the stimulus actually provide any uplift, these sort of things. So those are things that can take us to the higher-end. And I guess, I would say depending upon how those end-markets react if they were on the negative side or a little bit more negative than what we've assumed, that might lead us towards the lower-end of that range.

Elizabeth H. Speyer
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Dan Leonard with UBS. Please go-ahead.

Dan Leonard
Analyst at UBS Group

Hi, thank you. I have a couple. The first one on process chromatography, just want to confirm my math here. Did that product-line decline more than 50% in the 4th-quarter and end-up declining about 50% for the full-year, is that correct?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah, that's about right, Dan.

Dan Leonard
Analyst at UBS Group

Yeah. And then Roop, that's been a very wide variable. What's your conviction in that high-single-digit growth forecast for 2025?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. We feel pretty strong about that. With kind of the destocking that we've talked about continuing with our customers. Obviously, we are -- part of our conviction is around the direct customer conversations that we've been having. So we feel-good about that high single-digit number.

Dan Leonard
Analyst at UBS Group

Okay. And then as a follow-up, I just wanted to better understand the operating margin bridge for 2025. It looks like it's about 100 basis-point year-on-year decline if you correct 2024 for the IPRD charge. And it sounds like that decline is entirely due to the China diagnostics and foreign currency. So I guess, one, can you confirm that? Two, it sounds then like if that math is right, operating margins would have otherwise been flat. But how would that reconcile a flat operating margin picture with that 5% headcount reduction? So I know that's kind of a multi-parter there, but just any help you could offer?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah, of course. So let me try and take it piece by bit there. In terms of the March, the first part is the China reimbursements is 60 basis-points, right? So that's one. The next part of that is the FX effect, which is 40 basis-points headwind. So that gets you to about 100 basis-points. The other piece that I mentioned, which is also 40 basis-points that we factored into with the guide that we provided, which will likely be a Q3 event is an additional $10 million one-time R&D -- in-process R&D expense that will incur for the Sabre Bio acquisition that we just completed last summer. The development of the products there are moving along pretty well. And as such, there are some earn-outs that would be achieved as a result of that and therefore, that charge would be there. So the total of that is about 140 basis-points overall, Dan. And so if you march that up from the guide, I would say it from our guide perspective of 13.25% midpoint, that kind of gives you a sense of where we would be in-kind of the mid to-high 14% stands those sort of headwinds. As it relates to the -- to the 5% workforce reduction, obviously, that was a difficult thing for us to do. But however, what it does provide us is to offset otherwise some of the expenditures that would roll-over on a year-over-year basis, whether that's merit and other aspects of that?

Dan Leonard
Analyst at UBS Group

Okay. Thank you, Roop. Yeah.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Brandon Couillard with Wells Fargo. Please go-ahead.

Brandon Couillard
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon. Just on the Stilla acquisition, I mean it's been around a while. Why now what is complementary about it that your portfolio didn't already have? And can you share any financials about the asset revenue base, installed-base. And I imagine would the business be dilutive -- I guess, if you're losing money, would it be dilutive to margins and can you put the numbers around that.

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

This is Jon. I'll take the first part. I mean it's true that the company has been around for a while, very solid team developing a portfolio. But they launched a new platform last year. It's kind of an all-in-one solution-based on their proprietary chip technology and great workflow and essentially they saw themselves with a great product without a real global reach. So that's why we're excited about bringing that into our portfolio with our -- not only content that we have put on and our expertise, but being able to get that support more researchers around the world. So I think that's the key point of why we're very attracted to it today.

Norman Schwartz
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah, Brandon, let me add to Jon's comments. The other part in terms of I think application here with the -- potential products allows us to address not just the entry-level at the digital PCR market, but also allows us to address the high-end of the Q PCR market where we don't today. As to the cannibalization, we don't think it's actually cannibalizing anything. We actually think it expands market opportunities for us and allows us to compete very effectively with other players in the marketplace. The way we think about it does have revenue today, and I think that's the other thing we promised in terms of as we think about our M&A strategy, moving towards companies with products that are on-market that have revenue. And I think once we get them integrated, we think it should be accretive within 18 to 24 months from close. And obviously, we'll work to try and get that accretive even faster, but we think it will be a value-add. So hopefully, that's helpful.

Brandon Couillard
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then one clarification, Roop. I think you said first-quarter reported revenue down 5% to 7%. I guess that implies organic is down maybe low-to mid singles. Then do you expect a return to positive growth starting in the second-quarter over the balance of the year? Is that how we think about sort of the phasing?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. I think that's a reasonable way to think about the phasing.

Brandon Couillard
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then last one, just on the RIF and the cost structure streamlining. Can you give any more color around kind of what areas are targeted, what parts of the P&L will see that manifest and why now? And is this part of the larger evaluation of the portfolio or strategy in the company?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. I mean I think the why now, I think as we continue to evaluate our business, business structure and where we stand from a performance standpoint. And just from an overall market perspective with the softness across different areas. We thought it's something that it was the appropriate time to take such action. With that said, it's broad-based. There is the majority of the actions are in the OpEx area. There is a little bit up in the infrastructure area within COGS within our supply-chain organization, but the predominance of it sits within our opex areas, R&D plus some SG&A areas.

Brandon Couillard
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Very good. Thank you.

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jack Meehan with Nephron Research. Please go-ahead.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Thank you. Good afternoon. I wanted to start with the first-quarter forecast. If I heard it right, you're assuming down 5% to 7% on-sales. Can you talk about what you're assuming by segment within that? And I guess just why the trend would be so different than kind of what we saw in the 4th-quarter?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. Thanks, Jack. So maybe just a clarification to make sure everyone's got it right. The 5% to 7% is on a year-over-year basis to give that comparative there. So that's that. Obviously, from a sequential standpoint, it also would be down from a Q4 2024. To your point as to why there's a few different dimensions there. Number-one, the continued softness within the academic market and biotech biopharma. The other thing is we've now factored in the full effect of both the donor screening business as well as the China reimbursement piece there. And then you got FX headwinds that are all factoring into there. And then over -- as we get through the year sequentially, we expect to see some level of recovery both on in the diagnostics space for us as well as the life sciences space for us.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Got it. And just to clarify, that down 5% to 7% year-over-year, that's an all-in number inclusive of FX headwinds?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

That's right.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Okay. And it sounds like based on the commentary, you said it's probably roughly even across both segments in the first-quarter.

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah, just in terms of the downtick?

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Correct, yeah.

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

That's reasonable, Jack.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Okay. And then wanted to turn to China. So you said the region's a high single-digit percentage of revenue, these reimbursement pressures concentrate in the diagnostics business in diabetes today, if it's a $20 million kind of annualized cut you're talking about, it seems like pretty meaningful relative to probably what the exposure is. So I was just wondering if you could confirm that. And then second is, just any thoughts around that spreading to other areas of the testing portfolio?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. And maybe I'll start with the latter because that's obviously was one of our concerns and especially as China adopted the reimbursement rate change for the A1C earlier to originally it was supposed to kick-in 2025 and they brought it into 4th-quarter -- mid 4th-quarter. And so we learned a bit in the mid to late November timeframe. Yeah, it's so we -- related to that, we don't think -- we don't expect at this time and obviously, things seem to be subject to change. But we don't have any expectations that it should affect us in other areas that we support in the marketplace. So I think that's one aspect of it. In terms of the effect of it, the -- I guess -- I think the way we said it in the script is not $20 million. I think that, Jack, that's the number you used there. More in the mid-sing -- mid-teens kind of levels is what you ought to take-out of that.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Okay. Yeah, I think I was tacking on $5 million or so in the 4th-quarter. But thank you. Yeah. That's what I was thinking. And then the last one, do you have a cash-flow target for the year? It seems like you made some progress on the working capital. Just be curious how you're thinking about that for '25?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. Free-cash flow, I gave a range of kind of 310 to 330-ish kind of range $30 million.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Okay.

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

So -- and we finished at $390, so incremental amount. And obviously, we're working towards both further improved working capital efficiencies across-the-board.

Jack Meehan
Analyst at Nephron Research

Okay. Thank you.

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

And once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press the store one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Conor McNamara with RBC Capital Markets. Please go-ahead.

Conor McNamara
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Hey guys, thanks for the question. First-off, on the NIH exposure, I appreciate the color and the numbers you gave around that. But -- and I recognize it's only been a week, but have you had conversations with customers and how are they changing their buying patterns? Are they -- does this put this -- put that them on a, you know, a halt of spend or was there already some slowdown that they were anticipating some NIH cuts. How should we think about that the case how that's rebounding?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah, I think it has come as a little bit of a shock to researchers and I think they're in-kind of a little bit of a wait-and-see mode as to what really happens. So I would imagine especially for capital equipment that will probably that'll probably be probably more effective than anything else in the near-term.

Conor McNamara
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then just on the overall end-markets in Life Sciences, what kind of assumptions are you making for the rebound in the back-half of the year. Are you assuming a gradual improvement with things returning kind of a normal at the end-of-the year or how should -- how are you thinking about end-markets?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. I guess, Conor, I wouldn't necessarily say we're going to say that it's going to get back to normal because I think that's an open question as to what is the new normal. With that said, we are expecting to see improvement as we go through the year with -- we'd anticipate Q4 being kind of the highest quarter, but it's a sequential improvement from Q1 to Q2 and through the rest of the year?

Conor McNamara
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Got it. And then last one for me is just on the DDPCR franchise. Can you talk about how that market is progressing, both from a competitive standpoint and you know from the acquisition and then from continuum or what -- how should we think about the market growth and your ability to maintain share in the BDPCR market?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. I mean it's certainly a competitive market that today, we've got a number of players in the market and of course, we continue to invest in the technology, both internally and through acquisition. You know, we as we look-forward, we look to the segmentation of our of our product-line -- of our of our platforms within that product-line and of course, continuing to build-on the -- on the kind of assay portfolio is an important consideration as well. So I don't know, you know, I think there continue to be lots of opportunities there. And of course, we're -- we have yet to really scratch the surface on the diagnostics side.

Norman Schwartz
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. So the platform actually allows us at a price point to compete where we don't participate today, which is a robust part of the marketplace. And I think that that's part of the excitement. It kind of bridges kind of where we are with Continuum once that launch later this year to really the beat with a high-end QPCR marketplace and kind of more lower-end segments of the DBPCR platform. So from a competitive standpoint, it allows us to participate in a market we don't really compete in today.

Conor McNamara
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate taking questions.

Norman Schwartz
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thanks,.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Tycho Peterson with Jefferies. Please go-ahead.

Tycho Peterson
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Hey, thanks. So on digital PCR guidance up one to two for the year, does that assume equipment is down again this year? And maybe can you put a finer point on the decline?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah., it does it doesn't presume that it's down, but it's relative instruments is still relatively soft. Consumables continue to be strong and has -- did -- were strong through Q4. We're expecting that to continue into '25. And so that's kind of the major assumption there is that instruments and that's really tied to biopharma biotech continuing to be soft as well as academia.

Tycho Peterson
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Okay. And then for this year, you laid out a handful of new product introductions. I guess, any way to think about contributions from those in aggregate?

Jonathan Divincenzo
President, Chief Operating Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

They're not overly significant. They're not significant in terms of the introductions. They'll build into 2026 and beyond, which is the most critical piece of getting them out to the market.

Tycho Peterson
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Okay. Two other quick ones. I guess the messaging on capital allocation, I think you've kind of been messaging you could do bigger deals. You've obviously invested in geneoscopy and. You did the deal today. So are you still focused on, I guess, smaller-scale? Are you considering larger assets? And how do you think about balancing that with the buyback?

Roop Lakkaraju
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah. I think that it's -- there are a couple of factors there. As you -- as you know, we've done a lot of kind of earlier-stage things in the last couple of years. And I think we certainly have pivoted now as still is a great example to things that come with revenue-generating and as I think Jon said, you know they fit-in our portfolio and I think we can accelerate that through our -- through our global distribution. And then, yeah, so mid-sized or larger deals would be would be on our radar screen.

Tycho Peterson
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Okay. And then last one just on pricing, what are you kind of assuming ex the China diagnostic dynamics?

Norman Schwartz
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Yeah I guess -- I guess if I net, the China effect were somewhere around 1% were kind of 1.5ish thereabouts without it in that ballpark.

Tycho Peterson
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Okay. Thank you.

Norman Schwartz
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer at Bio-Rad Laboratories

Thanks,.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Edward Chung for closing remarks.

Edward Chung
Vice President, Investor Relations at Bio-Rad Laboratories

All right. Thank you for joining today's call. We hope to catch-up with you in-person in the coming months. We're also finalizing plans for an Investor Day that we're targeting for mid-November. We'll look to get-out a save-the-date notice as details become more concrete. And as always, we appreciate your interest and we look-forward to connecting soon. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, presenters. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

Corporate Executives
  • Edward Chung
    Vice President, Investor Relations
  • Jonathan Divincenzo
    President, Chief Operating Officer
  • Roop Lakkaraju
    Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
  • Norman Schwartz
    Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Analysts

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