Vontier Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 13, 2025

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Volunteer Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded on Thursday, 02/13/2025, and a replay will be made available shortly after. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Edelman, Von Teer's Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call this morning to discuss our fourth quarter results. With me today are Mark Morelli, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Anshooman Aga, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You can find both our press release as well as our slide presentation that we will refer to during today's call on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.volunteer.com. Please note that during today's call, we will present certain non GAAP financial measures.

Speaker 1

We will also make forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results might differ materially from any forward looking statements that we make today, and we do not assume any obligation to update them. Information regarding these factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements is available on our website and in our SEC filings. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's call. I'll provide a high level overview of our performance in the quarter with a brief update on our end markets, the progress we're making on our strategy and our setup for 2025. And Shuman will then provide a deeper dive into our Q4 results and outlook for the full year. Let's get started with a summary of the quarter on Slide three.

Speaker 2

Overall, we were encouraged by our fourth quarter performance delivering top and bottom line results above the midpoint of our guidance and capping off a strong second half. We are capitalizing on solid industry demand across convenience retail and fueling end markets and leveraging our portfolio of innovative industry leading technologies to gain share and deliver above market growth. We achieved 3.5% core growth in the quarter with all three segments outperforming. For the full year, core growth was about 2% reflecting the dynamic end market conditions we experienced most of the year, particularly within our car wash and auto repair businesses. Importantly, we saw signs of stabilization in these verticals through the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

Bookings were up 9% organically in the quarter, driving a book to bill above one for the fourth consecutive quarter. Bookings growth for the full year was over 6% led by double digit growth at Invenco within Mobility Technologies and Environmental and Fueling Solutions. We saw broad based strength across our payment, enterprise productivity, fueling dispensing and environmental businesses. Operating margins were flat year over year and up sequentially despite continued mix headwinds. Let's turn to Slide four.

Speaker 2

Frontier has a unique competitive advantage within the mobility ecosystem with a purpose built portfolio of connected hardware and software solutions. Our connected mobility strategy places us at the forefront of our customers' digital transformation journey and offers optionality for their energy needs. As we connect, manage and scale the mobility ecosystem, our focus on reinvigorating R and D and new product introductions are delivering tangible results. Our ability to deliver on our commitments for commercial and operational excellence rests on the foundation of our three pillar framework, which leverages the volunteer business system and the eightytwenty principles embedded in our focus and prioritization program. We made strong progress on our simplification initiatives under Pillar one, Optimize the Core.

Speaker 2

Benefits of these initiatives help to fully offset the significant margin headwind from mix and we have a solid pipeline of opportunities that will deliver margin expansion over the next several years. For example, within EFS, we expanded our internal efforts around product line simplification and component standardization in 2024, strengthening our ability to execute on margin expansion. We are well on track to achieve our targets on rationalizing global Dispenser platforms to under 10, achieving 50% standardized components and reducing manufacturing capacity. In addition to improving the cost structure, this simplification process allows us to allocate our resources more effectively. Ultimately, the result is faster innovation cycles, reduced supply chain complexity, lower lead times and improved working capital and pricing capabilities.

Speaker 2

We're seeing the success show through in the EFS segment margin, which has improved nearly 200 basis points over the last two years and now sits at an impressive 29% with room to move higher. Tremendous work from the fueling team and more runway ahead. Within MobilityTech, the Invenco team has been on a similar journey of product line simplification. This began with 34 individual software platforms, including both legacy and acquired platforms. We've consolidated those to 18 at the end of twenty twenty four and we expect the steady state to be under 10 platforms over time.

Speaker 2

The simplification and modernization efforts at Evenco go well beyond rationalizing platforms and cost reductions. During the year, we completed the formation of our global software factory, which will benefit all of VonTier with an emphasis on streamlining our development and execution processes. We now have over 900 software engineers in Invenco alone creating flexible, scalable solutions for convenience retail, leveraging standardized architectures. We also increased our utilization of shared services during the year concentrating our development efforts into six global centers in 2024 including a new state of the art facility in Bangalore, India. The Bangalore Center will focus on driving innovation and AI enabled solutions to solve our customers' problems and also house core capabilities to support Frontier finance, IT and data analytics functions.

Speaker 2

Lastly, we proactively de risked our supply chain by cutting our direct sourcing costs from China to a modest $50,000,000 As a result, we do not have material exposure to tariffs at this point. Our self help initiatives are demonstrating solid traction and provide momentum for earnings as we head into 2025 with a strong runway of opportunities ahead. Quickly touching on Pillars two and three, we've been encouraged by the evidence that the organic and inorganic investments we've made to accelerate growth are paying off. As a reminder, Pillar two, Expanding the Core, is about leveraging our current market positions to accelerate profitable growth with a focus on driving share gains through innovation and market leading product vitality. I'm incredibly proud of how far we've advanced our Invenco product strategy in just the last twelve months.

Speaker 2

We are receiving positive customer response to our innovative payment, point of sale and forecourt automation solutions. We see evidence of this in our recurring revenue base, which grew low double digits year over year. SaaS enabled recurring revenue now accounts for more than a third of Evanko's total revenue base powered by our connected offerings. Efforts underway to standardize our convenience retail offerings around our InnFX microservices architecture are gaining traction. Customers are acknowledging that our flexible, scalable platform unlocks their ability to increase their revenue yield, reduce operating costs and enhance consumer loyalty offerings.

Speaker 2

FlexPay six is proving to be a game changing solution and is beginning to open new market opportunities for volunteer as our customers increasingly recognize the value proposition of a fully integrated connected payment solution. As you may recall from last quarter, we showcased several new offerings at the annual National Association of Convenience Stores trade show in October, including unified payment order at the pump and remote management capabilities. These solutions are strengthening the commercial funnel with our top tier customers. As an example of this success, early deployments of our unified payment solution with Costco in Canada are off to a great start. Locations with our solution in place are already seeing a dramatic reduction in their payment transaction times, which improves throughput for Costco and a better user experience for the consumer.

Speaker 2

We're seeing similar benefits for other major North American operators as they adopt FlexPay six as their standard payment solution. Turn to Slide five. To help set up the backdrop for our 2025 outlook, which Anshooman will provide later in the call, we wanted to provide you with a more detailed overview of how our end markets and businesses performed in 2024. Our businesses that sell into the convenience retail and fueling end markets performed well driven by sustainably higher levels of CapEx investment. Successful C store operators continue consolidate.

Speaker 2

Our base case for this year assumes underlying demand momentum for this end market continues. We are optimistic we are seeing positive inflection points in our Car Wash and Repair Solutions businesses. At the same time, there's uncertainty regarding the pace of improvements due to stabilizing inflation and improving interest rates and this warrants a more cautious view within those markets. Our Environmental and Fueling segment finished the year with 6% core revenue growth with a solid recovery following the delays we experienced in Q2. Our global Dispenser business grew low single digits in the year.

Speaker 2

Strength in North America was led by steady demand for equipment tied to new site build activity. Based on our most recent customer conversations with our strength in new site build activity in 2025. Rest of World Dispensers outpaced North America in part due to the shipments of our India tender wins. As a reminder, we were awarded four large tenders in India late last year, including both above ground and below ground equipment, which will be accretive to growth this year. These wins were the result of providing value added features that improve security, productivity and automation, while reducing cost and complexity.

Speaker 2

Our underground environmental solutions grew revenues in the low single digits for the year with solid growth in North America, partially offset by tougher compares in rest of the world. Strength in North America was driven by solid upgrade activity for our underground sensing and monitoring equipment as well as new product introductions. We have a market leading installed base of over 350,000 legacy automated tankages globally. This offers a multi year upgrade gauges. As I mentioned earlier, bookings for environmental were up low double digits for the full year giving us confidence that this part of our portfolio is positioned for sustainable growth at attractive margin rates in 2025.

Speaker 2

Aftermarket parts was a clear standout this year with sales up high teens on top of a high single digit prior year comparison. We continue to monetize our large and growing installed base to get closer to our entitled share of aftermarket sales. Although we anticipate growth to slow given the tougher compares, aftermarket is positioned for another year of solid growth in 2025. Mobility Technologies finished the year up 2% including nearly a six point drag from the volume decline at DRV. Invenco had a breakout growth year in 2024, delivering mid teens core revenue growth, also benefiting from the general strength of the convenience retail and fueling end market.

Speaker 2

Based on strong demand for new products like InnFX and FlexPay six, building order momentum and the pipeline of opportunities, we expect another year of solid top line performance this year, albeit closer to a high single digit rate as we lap tougher comparisons. The carwash industry shifted rapidly during 2024 following a multi year hyper growth phase for tunnel carwash systems as larger operators pull back on planned greenfield activity and funding became more limited. For the full year, DRB's revenues declined just over 20% in line with what we were anticipating. While key market fundamentals have stabilized, we believe it's too early to call for a return to growth. That said, we expect our recurring revenue businesses, which now account for approximately 60 of DRB's portfolio to grow in the low single digit range.

Speaker 2

Net net, we expect DRB revenues to be relatively flat in 2025. Longer term, we remain constructive on this end market and in DRV's competitive advantage as the leading technology provider in the industry. Turning to repair solutions. As we've communicated previously, headwinds at Matco are related to slower discretionary spending by service technicians resulting from persistent inflation and general uncertainty regarding The U. S.

Speaker 2

Economic and political environment. While there has been an improvement in service technician sentiment post election, we believe it is appropriate to remain cautious on the outlook. The sentiment on buying behaviors for the service technicians are stabilizing, but not yet catching up to the healthy market opportunity for repair. While we are optimistic about the year ahead, we also recognize that the macro environment remains uncertain. That said, we're encouraged by the order strength we experienced in the second half and stabilization in our softer markets.

Speaker 2

We lead in attractive growth markets and we're uniquely positioned to capitalize on our self help momentum in our Pillar one initiatives going forward. I'm confident in our outlook for the full year and in our ability to execute and we will continue to strengthen volunteer's position for the future. With that, let me turn the call over to Anshooman.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mark, and hello, everyone. Let's start off with a summary of the fourth quarter results on Slide nine. Reported sales for the quarter was $777,000,000 with core growth of 3.5% led by strong performance in our Environmental and Fueling and Mobility Technologies segments. Adjusted operating profit margin in the quarter was 22%, consistent with the prior year and slightly above our guide as we work to mitigate sales mix through accelerated cost actions. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.8 exceeding the midpoint of our guidance range.

Speaker 3

We'll spend more time on free cash flow in a few slides, but I want to highlight that we generated adjusted free cash flow of $155,000,000 representing 128% conversion in the fourth quarter. While 2024 presented some challenges in certain end markets, our teams remain focused on execution and committed to delivering value for our shareholders. As Mark mentioned, we remain focused on optimizing our cost structure to deliver consistent more profitable growth and achieving top quartile financial performance over time. Moving on to the segment performance starting with Environmental and Fueling Solutions on Slide 10. EFS core growth increased nearly 11% in the fourth quarter benefiting from a robust convenience retail and fueling end market.

Speaker 3

Sales for global Dispenser equipment grew high single digits driven by sustainable growth in new site builds and industry consolidation in North America and recent tender wins resulting in high teens growth in international markets. Our focus on aftermarket combined with a large and growing installed base translated to nearly 20% growth in aftermarket parts. EFS segment margin of 28.6% was down slightly from the prior year impacted by geographic and product mix in the quarter, which was mostly offset by our cost optimization initiatives. For the full year 2024, EFS margins increased 110 basis points, highlighting the benefits of positive price cost, ongoing product line simplification, strong absorption and improved productivity savings. Turning to Mobility Technologies on Slide 11.

Speaker 3

Core sales increased approximately 3% supported by strong demand for our advanced payment and enterprise productivity solutions from Invenco as well as our DRiVES EV charging software solutions. And Venco continues to lead the way reporting another quarter of double digit orders and sales growth showcasing the strong demand for Flexpace6 unified payment solutions powered by NFX and vehicle identification systems. TRV sales declined in the quarter as expected with ongoing market weakness impacting new system sales. This was partially offset by high single digit growth in recurring revenues led by strength in payments and service. Margins at Mobility Technologies improved 10 basis points from the prior year despite increased investments in R and D at Invenco and unfavorable mix related to lower DRB sales.

Speaker 3

Turning to Slide 12. Prepared Solutions core sales declined just over 2% with sequential improvement driven by gradually improving discretionary spend among service technicians and MatCo's commitment to new product vitality focusing on lower price point tools. In the quarter, we saw strong growth in power tools as auto techs continue to favor tools that boost the productivity and efficiency in the current environment. Large ticket items like tool storage and diagnostic remain under pressure. Segment operating profit margin was relatively flat sequentially, but declined three ninety basis points year on year as anticipated, driven by lower volumes and unfavorable product mix.

Speaker 3

Bad debt expense was relatively neutral year over year as reserve levels have normalized. Importantly, Matco's product margin stabilized sequentially despite the continued mix headwinds. It's important to note the fundamentals underpinning the Repair Solutions segment remain intact and as we've mentioned, sentiment across our customer base is slowly improving. Turning to free cash flow and the balance sheet on Slide 13. As I mentioned earlier, fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow was $155,000,000 representing conversion of 128 percent.

Speaker 3

Cash from operations increased to $168,000,000 for the quarter. While full year cash performance was impacted by a shift in demand isolated to the second quarter and higher inventory including some pre buys prior to potential tariffs, solid free cash flow generation enabled us to repay $150,000,000 in debt and repurchase $225,000,000 or 6,300,000.0 shares of stock in 2024. Turning to our capital structure. We ended the year with a net leverage ratio of 2.6 times, well within our target range for the year and an improvement versus 2.8 times in 2023. This month, we repaid an additional $50,000,000 of our 2025 term loan.

Speaker 3

Yesterday, we completed the refinancing of the remaining $500,000,000 of that term loan extending the maturity out to February 2028. Additionally, we were able to reduce the effective interest by 22.5 basis points, which will translate to over $1,000,000 in annual interest savings. We also announced that we amended and extended our $750,000,000 revolving credit facility out to February 2030, reducing the facility fee and eliminating the credit spread adjustment. Moving to our financial outlook on Slide 14. For the full year 2025, on a consolidated basis, revenue is expected to be approximately $3,000,000,000 at the midpoint, which assumes core growth in the 1% to 3.5% range and including a $30,000,000 to $40,000,000 headwind from FX.

Speaker 3

As Mark mentioned, we expect top line growth to continue across the majority of our end markets with DRB and repair solutions remaining relatively flat. Operating margin is expected to expand 35 to 50 basis points. Implied incrementals on a reported basis will be north of 60%, supported by cost optimization initiatives underway as Mark covered as part of our Pillar one activities with the highest margin expansion coming from mobility technologies. Organic incrementals should be in the normal 30% to 35% range. We expect EPS to be in the range of $3 to $3.15 reflecting mid to high single digit growth year over year.

Speaker 3

This includes a modest headwind from FX and a placeholder of $75,000,000 of share repurchases. As we discussed with you last quarter, we expect the year to start off slower than normal in Q1 due to the timing of the Matco Expo, which is our largest annual trade show and has historically driven significant sales volumes. In 2025, this event shifts from Q1 to Q2, creating roughly a $30,000,000 headwind year over year, all else being equal. On a standalone basis, this shift results in about a four percentage point headwind to top line growth in Q1 at a fairly decent drop through on margins. Additionally, we are lapping difficult compares in both the EFS segment and Invenco business within Mobility Technologies.

Speaker 3

We expect sales in Q1 of just over $720,000,000 at the midpoint, which embeds a core decline of about 3% and margins down about 30 basis points. EPS should fall in the range of $0.71 to $0.74 As always, we have included some below the line modeling assumptions on the right hand side of this slide. Additionally, given the Matco Expo shift between Q1 and Q2, we wanted to provide a bit more color on the first half and Q2. From a quarterly cadence perspective, we expect Q1 to be the low point of the year for revenue, accelerating sequentially for the rest of the year. Revenue in the first half will equate to just over 48% of the year at the midpoint of our guide, with first half EPS coming in a little over 46% of the full year.

Speaker 3

First half revenue and EPS should be fairly consistent with our historical seasonal averages. With that, I'd like to pass the call back over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Anshooman. I'm incredibly optimistic about Frontier's ability to unlock shareholder value in 2025. First, Frontier will drive significant earnings growth this year. Our team is laser focused on earnings growth and building on our momentum as we optimize our core businesses and cost structure. We are driving efficiency through simplification efforts, including greater use of our centers of excellence around the globe.

Speaker 2

Second, our repair and car wash end markets remain buoyed by strong secular trends and these markets are showing signs of stabilizing. And overall, Von Teer has solid bookings growth. Third and finally, the mobility industry transformation is increasingly playing out to our advantage. Since then, we've transformed our portfolio to encompass broader options within the mobility ecosystem. We remain the global leader in petrol fueling infrastructure, which will advantage us in The U.

Speaker 2

S. For the foreseeable future. At the same time, our investments and innovations across electrification, petrol, hydrogen and natural gas are enabling us to provide multi fuel optionality to our global customers as different technologies are advancing at different paces. It's a global energy trilemma that demands affordability, security and sustainability. The diversity of our portfolio in the right profit pools addresses this trilemma is strategically resilient and allows us to offer valuable suite of solutions to our customers.

Speaker 2

Regardless of the pace of the transition, the geography or geopolitical environment, Frontier is poised for growth and position to win, more so today than ever before. With that operator, let's turn the call over for questions.

Operator

Thank And your first question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with CDG. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Mark, on human, we understand you have much tougher sales comps in EFS in 2025, but it appears like fueling markets have been strengthening over the last couple of quarters. And I think you got into low to mid single digit growth for 2025. I think you would suggest maybe a little bit more leveling off of momentum. So can you just address that? And then your margin EFS was down a little bit sequentially despite such a strong quarter.

Speaker 4

Was that just the lower mix Antoine, that you mentioned in India? And should you still see good margin expansion in that segment in 2025?

Speaker 2

Yes. Andy, thanks for the question. Look, we're really encouraged by what we've been seeing building in the EFS segment. I think it shows the power of our brand and new product introductions that we've been doing there, the investments over the last couple of years. I think it's been a long time since the shocks from EMV.

Speaker 2

And I think there's just a lot of great stabilization players in that players in that business and there's no question they continue to build out their franchises, put in new storefronts and that's continuing at a really good rate and a pretty even pace and even rate. I think what you see in Q1 is a little bit of the just a spiky compared to last year, but we are really encouraged on what we see there. And keep in mind, some of these trends that are underfoot, these folks are building out their storefronts eighteen months, two point five years out making decisions. And while there might be some macro uncertainty underfoot, there's no question I just have come back from meeting with some CEOs in the industry and some of our leading customers. And there's no question that they've got strong balance sheets.

Speaker 2

They're putting that capital work in very successful business models and our equipment is favored.

Speaker 4

And just on the margin side and

Speaker 3

still Yes, Andy. On the margins, EFS expanded margins 110 basis points for fiscal twenty twenty four with and ending the year at an impressive 29%, a true testament to the VBS and our Pillar one activities, especially around product line simplification. In Q4, margins were down 30 basis points year over year. We continue to have positive price costs. We continue to have productivity savings.

Speaker 3

But quarter to quarter, we do have product and geographic mix, which I won't read too much into the margins in Q4, but we continue to feel very strongly about the margin potential in this business.

Speaker 4

Kind of in line with that 30% to 35% core for 25 inches unit in that segment?

Speaker 3

Yes. The incrementals in that business should be in line with our 30% to 35% incremental framework.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then just on Invenco, obviously, momentum there. Maybe you can give us a little more color. Deployments with Chevron Shell, how is that going? You obviously mentioned Costco, Mark.

Speaker 4

And you mentioned FlexPay six is game changing. So I know you said that Invenco likely grows more in the high single digit range in '25, but it grew mid teens in '24. I think in human said orders were up double digits. So why can't you see that momentum from '24 continue into '25?

Speaker 2

Yes. Andy, I think we are seeing that momentum. I think it's a great story because if you look back a couple of years ago, there were some vestiges of this, but the investments that we put in place here, the acquisition we did and these integrated solutions we're bringing to market are really solving high value customer problems, how they manage productivity and how they bring consumers more to their site. You're asking about the Shell and Chevron. Those are going really well.

Speaker 2

We're still in the rollout phase of those, but that's kind of in the acceleration phase at this point. And the customers that we're talking about here are pretty major footprints and it's pretty early innings. So I think it really bodes well for what we're bringing to market and you see the spike out growth happening last year with good orders growth. I think we're giving high single digit mobility tech overall Platform segment growth this year as well as Allmax improving. So we're seeing the drop through there.

Speaker 2

So I think this is what we've been talking about in terms of the portfolio transformation and I think you're beginning to see some of that come to light with

Speaker 3

that guide as well. Andy, I'll just add. Invenco, really strong year. They make a lot of traction in the marketplace. Some of it is also the longer sales cycle in some of these projects.

Speaker 3

So growing high single digits for Invenco on top of the really strong mid teens growth in 2024. And then overall Mobility Technology, again, will be the highest growing segment in 2025 with mid single digit growth.

Speaker 4

Appreciate all the color guys.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Andy.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey, just kind of back on the cost structure and kind of tariffs and related risks. I think you mentioned a pre buy. It sound like your own pre buy ahead of tariffs.

Speaker 5

So maybe you could elaborate on that. If you think your exposure is low, why are you pre buying? And do you see any pre buy activity in your customer base?

Speaker 3

Yes, Jeff. We didn't see any pre buy activity in our customer base because these are some components. We are in the process of moving a lot of the supply chain to derisk, and we will be at about a $50,000,000 run rate this year out of China. We did some pre buys just to manage the time between moving some of our supply chains and supply base because it takes a few months. So all of those plans are well in way.

Speaker 3

From a Mexico standpoint, since there's been talk around Mexico, we do buy about $25,000,000 from Mexico. Most of that, 90% or so of it is dual sourced. It might take us a couple of months to scale up manufacturing on some of the printed circuit boards and the other geography where we have a dual source. But we are in a pretty strong position managing our supply chain with everything we know today.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks for that. And then just kind of back to the maybe signs of bottoming and potential inflection and vehicle wash and repair, obviously, it sounds like you're expecting it to start slow. But do you see particularly in vehicle wash where maybe it's more project related kind of clear signs of projects coming back into your front log? Or how would you kind of characterize just the demand picture as you look, I guess, into the back half of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes, Jeff. First of all, I think we're encouraged because first step is we've seen stabilization in those markets. I think we have a really good read on the tunnel market build out at this point and it's sort of flat to slightly down. But at the same time, in the marketplace itself, we're seeing better recurring revenues. We've got pretty strong recurring revenue portion of that business and that's growing, particularly on the backs of a new product launch that we're doing on Patheon, which is a cloud based point of sale software.

Speaker 2

And we have a really good footprint there. And there's a one of the differentiators in the market right now is folks that can run a good car wash. They can actually drop more to their bottom line. And we see a sort of a fallout between the folks in the industry that run good car washes and they are consolidating the industry and folks that are not in there might be backing off more on their investments. So we're positioned really well with that first group of folks and this PATHION offering we hope, will also encourage us.

Speaker 2

I think it's just too early to tell. It's early in the year. So it's we're just being prudent in what we're seeing right now and sort of how it plays out. But I think the backdrop is a good backdrop and I think the fact that we've seen stabilization is a great sign. Great.

Speaker 2

Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to dive in maybe to the seasonality point through the year a little bit more. So understand the timing of the expo for Matco into Q2. And when I look at your first half comments, I think they're implying sort of flattish revenue and EPS sequentially for the total company in the second quarter. So just wanted to understand sort of how we should think about maybe some of the segments movement from Q1 into Q2.

Speaker 6

And any thoughts on that, please?

Speaker 3

Yes, Julian. So sales for the first half will be little north of 48% of the total year, which at the midpoint would give us about 1.5% core growth for half one. So obviously with Q1 being down that means Q2 will be stronger from a core growth perspective. EPS will also be about 46% of little north of 46 for half one, which again in Q2 our EPS will be growing year on year and is in line with our historical seasonality. Just from a color perspective of some segments, Mobility Technologies, Q1 should be growing mid single digits plus EFS, down slightly on a very strong compare and then Repair Solutions down low teens to maybe mid teens just on the Matco Expo move from Q1 to Q2.

Speaker 3

Hopefully that helps.

Speaker 6

Yes. I think that's helpful. And then for the second quarter the point would be again, it's sort of, I think, flattish sequential sales and profits. So is it sort of repair up in Q2 sequentially and then the other two are sort of flat to down? Is that the way to think about it?

Speaker 3

Sequentially, sales will be up from Q1 to Q2 at the midpoint of our guide. We will continue to see growth in Mobility Technologies in line with mid single digits plus. So we continue to see that. And then repair will be up quite strong just because of the Matco Expo move. And then environmental and fueling should also be up in the second quarter.

Speaker 3

So second quarter sales for one tier will be up year on year and up sequentially.

Speaker 6

Thanks very much. And then just my follow-up would be on, if we're thinking about pricing and what you're assuming for sort of price or price cost in your EBIT margins for 2025?

Speaker 3

Yes. We ended this year at about a 1% price increase of our growth next year. We expect about another 1% for price increase. Now our pricing is dynamic. In case there is impact of tariffs, etcetera, that comes in, pricing will be higher.

Speaker 3

Because of that, we will pass price through. Price cost, we're pretty proud that we've managed that well ever since spend. We've been price cost positive every quarter since spend and I don't see that changing in 2025 either.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Julie.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thank you for the time and I apologize if I missed this from earlier. But for the full year operating margin expansion, the 35 bps to 50 bps, can you provide a little color on which segments do you believe will be above and below and whatever detail you can give on the year over year changes by segment would be great?

Speaker 2

Yes. And Shimon will kind of peel the onion based on the segment here. But I think this is an area about controlling our controllables. I think we've got a lot of momentum coming off last year with some of this. I think we spent a decent amount of time in prepared remarks covering why we're pretty confident that we're going to pick that up.

Speaker 2

And I think also importantly you're seeing really good improvement in mobility tech as well, which has been a platform we've been building out and I think it's really encouraging for where things go from here. You want to give some color, Shoomi?

Speaker 3

Yes, David. For 2025, our largest margin expansion is going to come from mobility technologies. It's really our investments are starting to read throughout there both from a top line perspective, but also in the prepared remarks as Mark talked about the product line simplification and the investments that went into that. So we expect our Mobility Technologies margins to expand over 100 basis points in 2025. EFS should be up slightly, coming off a very strong 2024 of 110 basis point margin expansion.

Speaker 3

And then Repair Solutions should be flat to up slightly on flat volume. So a lot of the margin expansion coming from Mobility Technologies in 2025.

Speaker 7

Yes. I'm intrigued about the E and F margins. I'm trying to figure out when I see the strength in the Dispenser, even the orders you said were up, I think double digit. The profitability of the dispensers, can we just get a sense of where the dispensers are relative to the segment margins? Obviously, the growth of the top line is great.

Speaker 7

I'm just trying to figure out the impact on the margins. I'm just a little surprised maybe the margin expansion can't be a little bit greater. But again, maybe it's a mix issue, geographic, whatever

Speaker 3

it may be. Thank you. Yes, the margins vary based on the regions, David. So there is a mix topic that comes into play. Our highest part of the margin portfolio is aftermarket and environmental, but Dispensers again is a very attractive business for us.

Speaker 3

So there is the normal 30% to 35% incrementals in that business should kind of read through.

Speaker 2

Yes. David, I will sort of endorse a bit of what you're saying there. I do think there's really good potential in margin improvement on this. But even though we have market leading margins, I mean, if you look at the simplification opportunities that we have, they're pretty significant. And there's also pricing power in the market.

Speaker 2

It's a fairly well disciplined market with the number of players that are in it. And so I think longer term, we see a really good runway here.

Operator

David?

Speaker 7

I apologize. I was on mute. I mean, this is the business a couple of years ago that people felt was a melting ice cube. And now you're speaking of orders up double digit, you have pricing power. I'm just curious, the backlog, how far does it extend?

Speaker 7

I'm just curious the legs on this Dispenser momentum.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's a short cycle business in terms of how we take orders for the business. But I think a really important way to think about it is that, first of all, this PetroBase infrastructure is going to be around for a long time. And it was something that we believed in since then and we've made investments in this business accordingly. And as a consequence, you're seeing some of the benefits of those investments play through.

Speaker 2

I think it's also a great opportunity to make it more sustainable. Security of payment is a big issue. We're coming up on another payment card industry initiative that's hitting the industry in The United States called PCI five or Payment Card Industry five regulation that needs to be met. So there's this constant drab that's going on out there of regulation that drives the market. And we're selling more high flow diesel pumps as well as folks want to provide that offering at your truck stop or even your local convenience store.

Speaker 2

So I think there's a lot of legs to this and we're very encouraged by what we see. At the same time, as this business plays out, there's more integrated solutions as these major retailers and truck stop owners are connecting together an integrated solution where they're trying to get more productivity out of that. And so you see the importance of that working with Invenco and those integrated solutions. And I think it's really coming forward.

Speaker 3

I'll just add, even though we have less than one quarter in backlog for environmental and fueling at any time, our orders, while they're shorter term or quicker book to turn, our customers' projects and the visibility we have is longer term because a lot of the new to site new to industry construction sites that are being built, they're doing the land acquisition permitting a year, two years out. And since we have a good market position with the large national regional players, we're partnering with them and we're getting visibility into their build out plans.

Speaker 7

That's helpful. Thank you. Thanks, David.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to come back to the and Schumann maybe the Q2, sorry, the first half, second half that you talked about. I think you said 46% plus for the first half. But even so, if we just take 46% literally, it does imply that 2Q EPS is pretty flat or actually say down from 1Q.

Speaker 8

And I'm getting the Matco Expo shift as a $0.05 to maybe $0.07 uplift Q2. So then when we think about the EFS business normally has higher 2Q than 1Q. Just trying to understand kind of like how we should think about the Q1 versus Q2 kind of bridge, if you will. Is there any margin offsets or anything else we should be thinking about here?

Speaker 3

Yes. So there's a little bit of mix between Q1 and Q2, so that does impact margins. Operating profit margins in Q2 will be slightly down versus Q1. So that does impact EPS a little bit even though sales are a little bit up. And then again, it's pretty typical half one, half two seasonality.

Speaker 3

So quarter to quarter, there's some mix challenges. But when you start taking bigger chunks like the first half and second half, lot of those normalize between a couple of quarters. So we feel pretty strong about our margin expansion potential for the Europe. As Mark talked about our Pillar one activities and our productivity program, which is leading to our very strong drop through of about 60% or north of 60% on the volume at the midpoint of the guide.

Speaker 8

Okay. Can you just maybe just elaborate on what that how that mix is changing from Q1 to Q2 because I don't think we need to see it necessarily in prior years. But I just I did want to just talk about the kind of the net interest expense guidance versus the share buyback guidance. It seems that the net interest expense guidance implies that you're deploying pretty much all of your free cash flow, whereas obviously the $75,000,000 placeholder implies you're not. So just wanted to understand that disconnect maybe.

Speaker 3

Yes. Just maybe I'll start off with interest. So the interest basically assumes current interest rates and the debt that we have the debt stack we have. We did announce that we extended our term loan by a couple of years. We paid down $50,000,000 of debt.

Speaker 3

So that's all factored in. We did get our spread to come down 22.5 basis points, which is about $1,000,000 plus of annualized savings. So all of that's factored in. We did factor in $75,000,000 of buybacks. The rest of the cash we generate hasn't been factored in from a capital deployment perspective and is upside as we continue to deploy that during the course of the year.

Speaker 8

And the mix?

Speaker 3

The mix, just a couple of examples. The Matco Expo, while it drives higher volumes, it is also the best deals of the year. So there is some mix headwind that comes from that. Also these days, if you think of MatCo, a lot of the higher price point items, which are more discretionary in nature, those are under pressure. And what we're seeing that the technicians are buying are the lower price point items with higher payback.

Speaker 3

So there's a mix headwind out there. Also some geographic mix issues and a couple of businesses between Q1 and Q2 of where we're delivering some of the volume coming in, which impacts some of the margins. So again, from a full year perspective or a half one perspective, really nothing to be concerned about. It's just time in between a couple of quarters.

Speaker 8

Okay. I'll leave it there. But I think you did mention the Matco Expo had attractive drop through, but we'll follow-up offline. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Ullman with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes. Hi. This is David Ridley Lane on for Andrew. Your R and D expense has as a percentage of revenue has gone up now around 6% or so. As your software revenue mix continues to grow, should we expect an upward bias to your R and D spend in 2025 and beyond?

Speaker 2

No. I don't believe so. I think we've definitely pushed forward to make some investments here. I think you're beginning to see how that's paying off and is reading through. But if anything, I think that percentage of sales at a total cross volunteer basis will come down.

Speaker 2

We might, of course, be investing in specific platforms a little bit more, but I do think we have opportunity to flatten that and if anything that should drift down.

Speaker 9

Got it. And just sort of broadly, there's been a lot of discussion here on mix impact. There was clearly mix impact on the fourth quarter. But just to sort of from a big picture perspective, when you talk about 2025 guidance having normal incrementals, you're basically saying most of this mix headwind is behind us not ahead of us. Is that correct?

Speaker 3

That's correct. And that's just seasonal between quarters. For example, if a some markets the dispensers don't have payment integrated in because of the nature of the market, payments is at a more attractive margin, so that does help. So you have to really look at the geographic mix of the products. And from a full year perspective, there is a pretty normal standard mix across the year when you look at it year on year.

Speaker 3

It's just it varies from quarter to quarter.

Speaker 8

Got it.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much.

Operator

All right. Thank you. And there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Mark Morelli for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, operator. Thanks again for joining us on today's call. I'm really encouraged we've got significant momentum controlling our controllables and we expect excellent payoffs in 2025. We appreciate your continued interest in VonTEER and we look forward to engaging you and seeing you on the road in the weeks ahead.

Speaker 2

Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Vontier Q4 2024
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