Sabra Health Care REIT Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 20, 2025

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day. My name is Aaron, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the twenty twenty four Sabra Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Lucas Hartwich, EVP, Finance. Mr. Hartwich, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning. Before we begin, I want to remind you that we will be making forward looking statements in our comments and in response to your questions concerning our expectations regarding our future financial position and results of operations, including our earnings guidance for 2025 and our expectations regarding our tenants and operators and our expectations regarding our acquisition, disposition and investment plans. These forward looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks listed in our Form 10 K for the year ended 12/31/2024, as well as in our earnings press release included as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form eight K we furnished with the SEC yesterday. We undertake no obligation to update our forward looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, and you should not assume later in the quarter that the comments we make today are still valid. In addition, references will be made during this call to non GAAP financial results.

Speaker 1

Investors are encouraged to review these non GAAP financial measures as well as the explanation and reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP results included on the Financials page of the Investors section of our website at sabrahealth.com. Our Form 10 ks, earnings release and supplement can also be accessed in the Investors section of our website. And with that, let me turn the call over to Rick Matros, CEO, President and Chair of Sabra Healthcare REIT.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Lucas. Appreciate it. Thanks, everybody, for joining the call. We appreciate it. Let me start by sending out love and prayers to the Bebas family.

Speaker 2

Their bodies will return to Israel today. May the memories of Kefir and Ariel and Shiri be a blessing. Thanks for

Speaker 3

allowing me that. So, moving on

Speaker 2

to Sabra. First, I want to comment on the promotions that we announced this week for Kara, Lucas, and Anna. We're really blessed to have the three of them as part of our team. They're fantastic. And they exemplify everything that's good and important about Sabra.

Speaker 2

And, also exemplifies the depth of our team. And, just really appreciate them and look forward to work with them in the years ahead. Moving on to the performance for the quarter. Sabre delivered what's been a success a succession of a number of great quarters in a row. Our senior housing and skilled portfolio continue to strengthen.

Speaker 2

Workforce availability does remain a challenge to the sector. But our tenants have been able to implement strategies to mitigate those challenges. And labor has stabilized. Our SHOP same store occupancy was up 80 basis points sequentially with margins up 20 basis points. Our SHOP cash NOI was up 17.9 for the quarter.

Speaker 2

Our senior housing triple net coverage stayed steady at 1.36. Our skilled occupancy was up 60 basis points sequentially with skilled mix up 30 basis points. Our EBITDA coverage hit an all time high of 2.09. Our skilled margins are now higher than we've seen in years. Our top 10 had another strong quarter.

Speaker 2

For 2025, we'll continue to build upon the strategy we successfully executed in 2024 as evidenced by our 7% year over year normalized AFFO growth. We would anticipate a higher volume of deals in 2025. The increased volume we started to see before year end has accelerated since with more opportunities that we've seen in quite a long time. The opportunities are primarily sharp, but we are seeing more skilled opportunities. The fact that we had nothing new to announce this particular quarter shouldn't reflect on what we think will get done this year.

Speaker 2

We fully anticipate to have a busy year, and a year that will have higher volumes than we had last year. Let me move on to the regulatory and political environment. The political environment's potential impact on our business has been an overhang. But I'd like to make a couple of points. First, the threat of Medicaid cuts.

Speaker 2

We take that very seriously. While any actions that may be taken are unpredictable, there are natural guardrails in place. And I want to go through some of those guardrails. As it pertains specifically to Medicaid cuts, Congress has been historically protective of the elderly population, particularly those vulnerable institutionalized folks. The Medicaid budget inclusive of matching funds is critical to the governors of all states, both red and blue.

Speaker 2

And, in fact, the red states have been the greater recipients of Medicare, of Medicaid, access, the expansion of Medicaid access in recent years. So, in addition to the bipartisan support that we've always had in Congress, the governors of the states, again, both red and blue, will be united to protect, the elderly in our facilities and the Medicaid budgets that are so critical to them. We have a robust lobbying effort that we expect will be successful. And a couple of other things I think to point out in terms of how much in the beginning of the process we're in. The House budget has $880,000,000 of unspecified $880,000,000,000 of unspecified Medicaid cuts.

Speaker 2

The Senate version has no Medicaid cuts and overturns the staffing mandate. So, you've got opposite sides of the spectrum. You have no specificity on where those Medicaid cuts are. So, a very, very long way to go. Finally, as I noted earlier, I think the final guardrail for us is the strength of our portfolio.

Speaker 2

Having margins, rent coverage, shop margins where they are, with organic growth still to come in all in both those segments, I think puts us in a very good position to withstand anything that may happen going forward. And with that, I will turn the call over to Talia.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Rick. Sabra's managed senior housing portfolio had another solid quarter. The total managed portfolio, including non stabilized communities and joint venture assets at share, had sequential revenue growth of 3.5%, cash NOI growth of 5.4% with margin expansion of 50 basis points. These statistics demonstrate sequential improvement in operating results that reflect the continued recovery in Sabra's senior housing portfolio. In the fourth quarter, we added one property to Sabra's managed portfolio.

Speaker 4

We see opportunities for external growth setting up well alongside internal growth. Sabra's same store managed senior housing portfolio, including joint venture assets at Cher, continued its strong performance this quarter. The key numbers are revenue for the quarter grew 7.4 year over year with our Canadian communities growing revenue by 10.6% in the same period. Both of these results are consistent with the growth statistics we reported last quarter. Fourth quarter occupancy in our same store portfolio grew by 2.3% year over year.

Speaker 4

Notably, our domestic portfolio occupancy grew 2.8% during that period, while our Canadian portfolio grew 1.2% in the same period. RevPOR in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four continued to rise with an increase of 4.5% year over year, while EXPOR rose a near 0.6% for the same period. Total expenses for the same store portfolio rose 3.4% in the fourth quarter on a year over year basis. Insurance costs have the largest percentage increase among all expenses, but represent less than three percent of total expenses. Labor cost, which represent more than 50% of expenses, grew 2.1% in the quarter on a year over year basis.

Speaker 4

Cash NOI for the quarter grew 17.9% year over year just above last quarter's results. In our U. S. Communities, cash NOI grew 15.2% on a year over year basis while in our Canadian communities, cash NOI for the quarter increased 26.9% over the same period, benefiting from the continuous strong performance of our joint venture properties. Overall, we expect to see revenue growth continue to outpace expense growth as it has in recent quarters resulting in ongoing growth in cash NOI.

Speaker 4

Cash NOI margins should continue to expand across the portfolio as the senior housing industry builds revenue by balancing occupancy and rate and expenses, especially labor costs remain stable. With this as a backdrop, we are seeing significant transaction volume in the senior housing space. Virtually all of the deals are structured to transact as managed rather than leased properties. Our cost of capital now allows us to pursue these opportunities, which can generally be described as newer, nearly stabilized senior housing communities that offer care to residents. Our net lease stabilized senior housing portfolio also continues to do well with strong rent coverage reflecting the underlying operational recovery.

Speaker 4

And with that, I will turn the call over to Mike Casa, Sabra's Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Talia. For the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, we recognized normalized FFO per share of $0.35 and normalized AFFO per share of $0.36 Normalized AFFO totaled $86,900,000 this quarter, which is in line with the third quarter. I'd like to highlight a few key components of this quarter's earnings. Cash rental income for our triple net portfolio totaled $90,000,000 for the quarter, which was down $1,800,000 due to timing of cash basis tenant rents and the impact of asset sales. Cash NOI from our managed senior housing portfolio totaled $24,100,000 for the quarter compared to $22,900,000 last quarter.

Speaker 5

This increase was driven primarily by continued sequential same store growth as well as the impact of a 92 unit property acquired at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Recurring cash G and A was $10,200,000 this quarter and slightly better than the $10,400,000 per quarter run rate we've provided on the last several calls. Normalized FFO per share and normalized AFO per share were 1.39 and $1.44 respectively for the full year, which represents 7% year over year growth. This growth is a result of steady performance improvements in our managed senior housing portfolio, continued stability in our triple net portfolio and disciplined capital allocation, three factors that we expect to contribute to further growth in 2025 as illustrated in our full year 2025 guidance. Our full year 2025 guidance on a diluted per share basis is as follows: net income $0.67 to $0.7 FFO $1.42 to $1.45 normalized FFO $1.43 to $1.46 AFFO $1.47 to $1.5 and normalized AFFO, $1.48 to $1.51 At the midpoint, we expect both normalized FFO per share and normalized AFFO per share to increase approximately 4% over 2024.

Speaker 5

It is important to note that our guidance does not assume any 2025 investment, disposition or capital markets activity. There are a few other important assumptions in our guidance I would like to point out. Cash NOI growth in our triple net portfolio is expected to be low single digit in line with contractual escalators. Additionally, our guidance assumes no additional tenants are placed on cash basis for revenue recognition. Cash NOI growth for our same store managed senior housing portfolio is expected to be in the low to mid teens.

Speaker 5

As the portfolio gets closer to full recovery, this growth rate may decelerate. And as a result, our guidance assumes the growth rate in the first half of the year will be higher than the growth rate in the second half of the year. General and administrative expenses is expected to be approximately $50,000,000 and includes $11,000,000 of stock based compensation expense. The weighted average share count assumed in our guidance is approximately $240,000,000 and $241,000,000 shares for normalized FFO and normalized AFFO respectively and is in line with our fourth quarter weighted average share count after adjusting for the timing of ATM share issuances during the quarter. Now briefly turning to the balance sheet.

Speaker 5

Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 5.27 times as of 12/31/2024, a decrease of 0.03 times from 09/30/2024 and a decrease of nearly half a turn from 12/31/2023. This improvement in our leverage is driven primarily by the continued NOI growth in our managed senior housing portfolio, accretive capital recycling and prudent use of our ATM to fund growth. As of 12/31/2024, we are in compliance with all of our debt covenants and have ample liquidity of $980,000,000 consisting of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $60,500,000 available borrowings under our revolving credit facility of $893,400,000 and $26,100,000 related to shares outstanding under Ford sales agreements under our ATM program. As of 12/31/2024, we also had $382,800,000 available under the ATM program. Finally, on 02/03/2025, Sabra's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.3 per share of common stock.

Speaker 5

The dividend will be paid on 02/28/2025, to common stockholders of record as of the close of business on 02/14/2025. The dividend is adequately covered and represents a payout of 83% of our fourth quarter normalized AFFO per share. And with that, we'll open up lines for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question for today comes from the line of Farrell Granath with Bank of America. Your line is live.

Speaker 6

Hi. Thank you so much. My first question is in regards to the occupancy for your SHOP portfolio. Just looking ahead to 2025, what are your thoughts of the pacing of the occupancy, either an acceleration or deceleration, just generally in the senior housing space?

Speaker 4

It's an interesting question because what we're seeing is operators balancing out pushing rate versus occupancy because they can't not everyone can do both at the same time. And so that's so it's very hard for me to sit here and handicap, which is how much occupancy is going to increase versus a focus on revenue increases by driving Rev four.

Speaker 6

We're

Speaker 4

seeing very strong we have seen very strong increases in our Canadian portfolio, which is now seem to be stable getting ramping down in terms of the rate of growth. But there's still plenty of room in our domestic portfolio. And I think that, certainly in IL, it will continue to get pushed. On the occupancy side in AL, I think there's definitely continued there'll be continued push, but a desire also to raise RevPOR at the same time.

Speaker 2

And Farrell, the only other thing I would add is, so the way I would look at it is, it's not going to be a deceleration. It's just a function of how much it's going to accelerate, to Talia's point.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you for that. And also, I know you made some comments on the opportunity set that you're seeing in 2025, an increase in it, both the mix of SHOP and the SNIFFs. I was curious if are you seeing any impacts in pricing when it's coming to sniffs specifically due to the current environment?

Speaker 4

It's interesting you say that. We were just at the ECAP conference, week ten days ago. I would say that the transaction market in skilled nursing is robust right now. There is a lot of money chasing deals and opportunities still, whether lenders and the healthcare REITs are able to continue to participate in that, right now, in an accretive fashion is the big challenge, how to figure that out.

Speaker 2

So, it's the strategic buyers that are chasing the money. That's what the issue is from a competitive perspective. So, they're valuing these assets not just based on the nursing facility, but on the revenue it generates for all their ASR businesses. So, they're operating entities, so they're able to pay up. So, as Talia said, they've been it's been pretty frothy for those guys.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of John Kilachowski with Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good afternoon. Maybe just to follow-up that last question. Rick, just from your opening remarks, it sounds like you feel a lot more confident in the acquisition pipeline this year versus last year, at least you expect an acceleration. I'm curious what you're seeing or what's changed quarter over quarter or from the past couple of months till now that makes you feel confident in your ability to accelerate these deals given, like you said, it's pretty frothy for some of your competition to bid up on deals?

Speaker 2

So, let me make a couple of comments and turn it over to Talia. First, we're not doing the kinds of deals that some of our competitors are doing. There's been a lot of loan volume. And we're just, as we've talked about in quarters past, and I think you know, John, we're just not interested in pursuing that unless there's a very specific reason that's tied to one of

Speaker 8

our operators.

Speaker 2

So if you take all that volume away, it changes the picture for everybody. But just to remind everyone, last year there were a couple of things. One, acquisition opportunities were just starting to pick up over the course of the year, particularly on the shop side. And our cost of capital was improving over the cost of the year. So, this year, we enter into it in a much different place with its much higher deal volume.

Speaker 2

And our cost of capital allows us to do the deals that we would like to do. Client?

Speaker 4

Sure. I mean, how does this I'm clearing at least 10 confidentiality agreements a week and we're only in mid February. There's just a lot of deals coming into the market. And there's a few sources for them for the most part. One source is a lot of private equity firms that have assets that have either are at funds that are at end of life or beyond.

Speaker 4

Similar to other kinds of investors, there are PE funds that have just decided the price is good enough now, let's just get out. So we're seeing quite a bit of that because there's been enough of a recovery to recoup and just exit. We're also starting to see green shoots on some interesting refinancing, recapitalization opportunities because three months ago, you recall four months ago, everyone expected interest rates to be declining. And actually, what's happened is that has reversed and interest rates have gone up, the ten years at about a 4.5 now. So there's opportunities to refinance and not do much on the cash in refi to refinance out banks that have loans, that sort of disappeared.

Speaker 4

And now we're seeing more refis looking for pref equity, mezzanine debt, etcetera. So there's sort of a new stream of opportunities coming in. But there's the recovery, but sort of you could really pull back zoom out here for a sec. There's been enough of recovery that people that have wanted to exit can finally hit a number that feels okay and they can exit as opposed to continue to carry. And they're really willing to do that.

Speaker 4

And that's really the breakpoint that we've hit over the last few months.

Speaker 7

Okay. Got it. I appreciate the detailed answer. And then just one more from me on the SHOP guide. Earlier in the opening remarks, there was a comment made about the back half maybe experiencing some modest deceleration in that growth, just given it gets harder the comp year over year.

Speaker 7

How do we pair that with the fact that you in this business, there should be greater operating leverage as you hit those sort of higher occupancy marks and I think you're at 85.8% and kind of once you reach those higher 80% marks, we've always heard in this business you really start to see the operating leverage of the business shine that maybe should allow for more growth. So could you help us sort of pair those two comments together?

Speaker 5

Yes. I think it's us trying to be a little bit conservative in those assumptions. I think that's a big component

Speaker 3

of it. I'm not going

Speaker 5

to hide that fact. But also, I mean, last year we saw quite a bit of occupancy growth year over year. We're sitting at about 85.5% as of the fourth quarter. If you think that this thing stabilizes at the upper 80s, low 90s, you're starting to get to a point where those occupancy gains aren't going to be as easy to come by versus where they were a year or two ago, right? So it's just us trying to be conservative on those assumptions and that growth, still acknowledging the fact, as you pointed out and as Talia pointed out, that the operating leverage kicking in is something that not only are we seeing right now, but we expect to see even more so, as occupancy continues to get closer to that, call it, 90% level.

Speaker 5

So that's effectively it. I mean, I don't think there's much more to look into it besides that.

Speaker 2

Your point is correct, John.

Speaker 4

Yes. That's why I noted that export has increased 0.6%, which is essentially it's essentially flat, which goes to operating leverage.

Speaker 7

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. Our next question is from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi Research. Your line is live.

Speaker 8

Hey, there. It's Michael Griffin here with Nick. Rick, I think in your opening remarks, you talked a little bit about some strategies that your operators have implemented to effectively mitigate costs. Can you maybe expand on that a bit? What some of these initiatives could be?

Speaker 8

And is there the opportunity within operators in your portfolio to share best practices, just given cost mitigation is going to remain to be a focus?

Speaker 2

I think it's a couple of things. One, in terms of recruiting, they've embraced digital marketing for recruiting in very many cases, which has been really helpful getting just more people into the door to be considered. The other is I think there's been a complete revamping of the onboarding processes, with all of our operators. So, the onboarding process has been lengthened. There typically are mentors that are assigned to new employees.

Speaker 2

And I think that's really helped get some traction with longevity. So, So, I think those are the two main things, obviously, we saw in 2022, a rebasing of wages. And so, that's kind of normalized since then. So, you know, we've always competed with the service sector, but I think the rebasing of the wages during COVID has made our operators a more attractive destination as opposed to other service kinds of positions. So, it's really those things.

Speaker 8

Yes. That's a helpful context there. Appreciate it. And then maybe just going back to the acquisition pipeline, Talia, you talked a bit about looking at more stabilized product that had a care component. Should we read into that that the pipeline is tilted maybe more toward AL relative to IL within the managed portfolio?

Speaker 8

And what kind of yields or IRRs are you underwriting to for prospective transactions?

Speaker 4

So I'd say that we're seeing, I think that assets with care components are by definition doing better now. The recovery, has really affected them now because they're able to charge rate. That's part of as opposed to necessarily drive to maximum occupancy. Of course, they have a higher cost structure. But there's been a lot of those built.

Speaker 4

Oftentimes, they're IL, AL memory care, by the way. So that is, in fact, what we're seeing mostly. We are seeing some standalone IL, but not that much. And I'm sorry, what was your the second part of the question? What you're underwriting to?

Speaker 8

From yields or IRR is what you're underwriting to?

Speaker 4

We're still seeing deals that so that going in might be seven to 7.5 but stabilize it above that. And that's, that's still happening.

Speaker 2

I would also just, know or reiterate really, strategically, we are focused on increasing our SHOP exposure. But within our SHOP exposure to your point in your question, you should see over time our AL increase and our IL, IL decrease, which should help our growth numbers as well.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Alan Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Speaker 9

It's Austin Wurschmidt here.

Speaker 10

Just going back

Speaker 9

to your comment about kind of full recovery in the Shaw portfolio, my sense was that was an occupancy comment. I guess, can you kind of share where margins and NOI stack up relative to occupancy? And what kind of the full recovery and future upside entails for those metrics as well?

Speaker 4

I think I went through where we are today in my comments. I think there's visibility on getting somewhere close to where we were pre pandemic here now in senior housing.

Speaker 9

Got it. I mean, are there

Speaker 4

any Particularly in those assets where you can really drive rate, which is based on location, etcetera, vintage, things like that.

Speaker 9

I mean, are there any regions or operators specifically that have already surpassed, I guess, the full recovery point and would give you even more confidence about the balance of the portfolio being able to grow again beyond what you're deeming to be kind of full recovery?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think we definitely have operators both in our senior housing and our skilled portfolio that have surpassed where they were pre pandemic. And, and so we look to do more deals with them. But our portfolio has gotten so strong and a lot of that, happened with some of the steps that we took during the pandemic, that all of our operators are on that path. Some are just further ahead than others.

Speaker 2

But we're at the point right now where we don't have stragglers that we had pre pandemic. And it's also why we've been as selective as we've been in terms of the deals that we've done, both in terms of market operator and the age of the assets that we're buying. So we think with everything that we did last year, and actually we had a lot of volume actually in 2022 as well, we've really enhanced the quality of the portfolio from a market asset and operating perspective.

Speaker 9

And then just last one. Rick, you mentioned kind of you expect to do more investments this year relative to last year. I mean, how significant of a year over year increase could we see given all the reasons Natalia highlighted around what's going on in private equity and with higher interest rates today?

Speaker 2

Before the pandemic, if you exclude, some of the really big moves that we made, we typically did several hundred million a year, that we'd like to get. I'm not going to predict that will exactly be there this year. But that's certainly a goal for us is to get back to the level of investments that we did on a routine basis prior to the pandemic.

Speaker 9

That's all for me. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Your line is live.

Speaker 11

Hey, this is Georgi on for Vikram. Just on the external growth pipeline, can you just talk about what does the competition look like for stabilized assets in the senior housing?

Speaker 4

Mostly the health care REITs for the NICER assets, the institutional quality assets, I'd say. Below that kind of quality level, I think you've probably got some high net worth. We're not seeing private equity in The States right now, though there are starting there's starting to be rumblings of their coming back. It's hard to be a levered buyer right now. There's just not enough spread between the cost of debt and cap rate.

Speaker 11

That's helpful. And just have one more on the SHOP portfolio. Can you just provide more color on what January bobs were compared to last year?

Speaker 4

I don't have the exact numbers for the portfolio with me. But it's been it's sort of in the 4% to 5% range is what we're seeing in our larger operators and they're achieving those.

Speaker 5

Yeah. And the other thing to point out too is that rent bumps aren't all done on January. Right? It varies operator by operator. Right?

Speaker 4

Some do them on an anniversary date of the of the lease, some do them in January. It varies. Mike is right.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Speaker 12

Hi. Thanks for the time. Just hoping you could talk a little bit about the infrastructure, the platform. Guidance seems to call for kind of flat G and A. So just curious how you guys are investing in the systems that it seems to be a strength of the REITs to have the platforms and the capital to invest behind, the business.

Speaker 12

So presumably, the moat will get wider as that happens over time. And I was just curious on your latest initiatives around being a leader in shop.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, look, we've been in SHOP for a while now and we established the infrastructure several years ago and we started our foray into that. So from a systems perspective, from a technology perspective, from a personnel perspective, those are pretty well established to the point where adding additional scale in there, any additional costs are going to be really incremental. It's not anything major to take on larger portfolios or more operators whatever it may be. And that's where probably the biggest impact I would say from a G and A perspective would be on the shop side.

Speaker 5

To the extent there's any triple net, you know, we could absorb that without adding any headcount realistically. So does that answer your question, Juan?

Speaker 2

Yes. And I would just add, Juan, that on from a systems perspective, we're continually upgrading and improving our system so that the technology that we have in place continues to get better, allows us to, provide different levels of support to our operators to interact differently, to have more visibility, to have more predictability, as we start building artificial intelligence capabilities into our systems.

Speaker 12

You said the key word there. Just curious on the '25, you talked about acquisitions ramping up. But curious if there's any dispositions. You had some sales in the fourth quarter, which we didn't necessarily model. So just curious, how we should be thinking about sales and dispositions for 2025?

Speaker 2

Yes. The dispositions that we had in the quarter were sort of ordinary course of business. And I think what we talked about, in the last several quarters that we had one snip portfolio that's still in the process of being sold, that's about $50,000,000 Other than that, what we've said is that everything else is ordinary course of business. And ordinary course of business for us historically has been sort of $50,000,000 to $100,000,000 plus a year in disposition. So, there was nothing kind of unusual about it.

Speaker 2

And you can tell by the number of facilities in what was a relatively small proceed number that they weren't producing very much.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. Our next question is from the line of Richard Anderson with Wedbush. Your line is live.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Good morning out there. So I want to talk about the Yes, so

Speaker 2

Rich, I just want to first say to you that a few quarters ago, three quarters ago, I believe, you said, can you foresee the day when your coverage is over two times?

Speaker 13

So that's all the questions I have. No, just kidding. So on the pipeline, I want to talk about the accretive dilutive math on that. Like you look at your trading at around 12 times forward AFFO, that's like an eight ish type of AFFO yield. I don't know if you'd think about it that way.

Speaker 13

But do you would you say you're breakeven in the first year of investment and grow from there? Or I'm just curious how you think about that from an accretive dilution standpoint?

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, based on where our stock is at right now as well as where we could issue debt at or using any kind of leverage, somewhere in the low to mid-7s on a going in yield is breakeven or slightly accretive. We also want

Operator

to add

Speaker 3

a couple of You mean a blend

Speaker 13

you mean a blend low to mid-7s?

Speaker 5

Yes, yes. The blend of the equity at today's prices plus debt, right? We think we could go in with initial yield to somewhere low to mid-7s and be breakeven to slightly accretive. But like Talia mentioned earlier, there's also opportunities that we're looking at where it's around that level, but there is also some growth baked into it. So it's not only just looking at that initial yield, but looking at the long term growth profile and how that compares to the expectations built into our cost of capital.

Speaker 13

Okay. So, Michael, if you're due $500,000,000 this coming year, would it be safe to say half of that is funded with equity or more or less?

Speaker 5

The numbers I've been throwing out usually is like sixtyforty equity debt just to kind of keep our leverage where it's at or around five times.

Speaker 13

Yes. Okay. And then, Rick back to you, big picture you mentioned the spread between the House and the Senate in terms of Medicaid, who knows exactly what is actually in those that line of thinking from the House perspective. But if it's so wide like that, I mean, isn't there a concern that at least there'll be some of it, I mean, to find a middle ground between those two, governing bodies. I'm just curious how we get through this with and avoid any kind of disruption at all?

Speaker 2

So, fair question. So, and this is probably not going to sound great because the numbers are so enormous. Anything over a trillion would be some cause to worry.

Speaker 10

And if

Speaker 2

anything under a trillion

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have lost our main speaker line. Please hold and we'll work to get them back. I'll put you back into hold music until we have them back on with us. Give us one second. We'll be right back on.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we really appreciate your patience here. Richard, I know you were in the middle of your question here. We'll bring you back up on to the stage. Go ahead.

Speaker 13

Well, Rick was in the middle of answering the question. I guess I broke the Internet with it. But, you were saying, Rick on this?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So, what I was saying was, you're talking about really big numbers here. If the number is over a trillion, it creates a lot of concern regardless of how the Medicaid cuts are divvy out. So, it gets better as big as the $880,000,000,000 sounds. But since you're starting it with zero at the Senate and eight eighty at the House, that number is going to come down.

Speaker 2

Hopefully, it goes away, particularly when the governors start getting involved in the fight, but it's going to come down. So, given how strong the portfolio's performance is with rent coverage and, the margins and it's continuing to improve and still got room to grow ahead of it, I think that we'll be okay, even if there's some kind of a hit. So, does that answer your question?

Speaker 13

Yeah, it does. And how would you how would you parlay that into Medicare, you know, different forces at work, but just curious.

Speaker 2

Yeah. It's different forces at work. I think, look, everything's being tested right now at the courts. You know, they're they can't just do this if they want to do it. They may try to, but they can't just do it.

Speaker 2

There's statutory issues, and, and Congress has to be involved. So, I actually think that I have less concerns about Medicare than I do about some kind of hit on Medicaid, even though I'm more optimistic and pessimistic about Medicaid or certainly the overall impact of it.

Speaker 13

Okay. And, much respect, you're open to comment. You know

Speaker 2

as well as I do. I mean, you're all over this kind of stuff, politically, like I am. I mean, we're living in a time that's completely unpredictable. Right? So, so, you know, I just tend to fall back on the bipartisan support, the lobbying efforts, the fact that this stuff is statutory, you've got states involved, as well as both chambers of Congress.

Speaker 2

It's just not going to be that simple to hurt people who are most dependent upon government aid.

Speaker 13

Fair enough. And just want to say much respect to your opening comments on this call by the way.

Speaker 10

Thanks everybody. Thanks Rick. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Alex Sajan with Baird Equity Research. Your line is live.

Speaker 7

Hello, and thanks for taking my question. I'll echo what Rich said, respect to those opening comments and to your point, the world's unpredictable in so many different facets. But my question is, do you expect specialty and behavior coverage to improve as the year progresses?

Speaker 2

I think it's just going to kind of meander around where it is. A lot of the fluctuations are the behavioral hospitals we have, which, it's just a really dynamic business. The coverage is fantastic. So, there's no sort of there's no sort of concerning trends. But, yes, I think it's just going to kind of meander around where it is.

Speaker 2

I don't think it's going to be consequential.

Speaker 7

Got it. And kind of changing back, but what is the current size of the cash basis tenant base? And then did the dispositions in the quarter include tenants on cash basis?

Speaker 5

So in terms of the cash basis tenant base, I like to quantify that in I put it in two buckets. There's really the ones that we're really focused on are the ones that are not paying us full rent and paying us random amounts month to month, quarter to quarter. And that component of the cash basis tenant pool is a couple of percentage points. I don't know, it's less than 5% of our NOI. And regarding your question on some of the sales that we had in the quarter, yes, that was related to some of our cash basis tenants.

Operator

All right. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Michael Stryk with Green Street. Your line is live.

Speaker 14

Thanks and good morning. Maybe one on the transaction market. Is there any recurring theme on potential deals that the company has looked at and then ultimately passed on, particularly within shop? Is it also just a function of price like what you're seeing with NIF transactions or maybe something else that leads to not closing on these deals?

Speaker 4

I think there are a couple of characteristics that we're focused on. One is the quality of the asset itself, of the real estate, and that we look at vintage of the asset as well. So that's one thing. We look at the market and we look at frankly long term viability of the asset. Those are critical factors.

Speaker 4

The SHOP, what we're seeing now generally is high quality assets. And it's an opportunity as Rick described earlier to improve our portfolio over time to add really high quality assets.

Speaker 14

I guess on those high quality assets that you're bidding on, is it just a function of different cap rates that you're describing versus where the deals ultimately trade at?

Speaker 4

I think the band of cap rates is fairly narrow. Often times, the seller or the operator have an ability to sway where who the buyer will be. And so relationships come to bear here. We're also seeing off market deals where relationships are definitely part of the discussion.

Speaker 14

Got it. Okay. And then maybe one just on, SNF coverage levels. The magnitude of the SNF coverage increase during the quarter seemed fairly outsized relative to the actual occupancy gains we saw. Can you just help us understand what drove such a healthy step up in coverages?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I think it's where occupancy kicked in. It was a big jump in terms of the impact on operating leverage. Really kind of as simple as that. Lucas, do

Speaker 1

you have? Medicaid too. Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 2

The Medicaid increases have, kicked in. And then the market basket, the market basket as well. Oh, no, not the market. I'm sorry. But the Medicaid increases that kicked in in July and August really had the biggest impact.

Speaker 2

So, it's this next quarter since we report a quarter arrears that you'll also see impact from the Medicare market basket.

Speaker 14

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Our next

Operator

question is from the line of Aaron Hecht with JMP Securities.

Speaker 10

Hi, guys.

Speaker 2

Your line is live. Go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thank you. I I was

Speaker 10

just looking at your loan book. It looks like it's around $400,000,000 It sounded like that's not an area you want to be focused on and the maturity date ranges are pretty wide. Is there anything coming up soon in terms of maturities? And do you expect those to convert to ownership or do you just recycle out of those as they come due?

Speaker 4

So, there's nothing imminent, in that loan pool. I think individually there are some that we'd like to refine, redeploy the capital and others that where we have an opportunity to buy, in which case we'll consider that when that window opens. There's nothing really actionable there at this moment.

Speaker 5

Okay. Yeah. I was really looking at

Speaker 10

the three mortgage loans. And it looks like the first maturity date is in '26, and that's the big bucket. Is there a big maturity in '26? Or is that more back end weighted?

Speaker 4

There's a maturity at the end of twenty six. So it's essentially two years away. Just under two years

Speaker 10

away. So, besides on that?

Speaker 5

It's the majority yes, about $300,000,000 It's the majority of that bucket.

Speaker 2

CRCA loan. Okay. So, that I mean, that discussion is going to be that they want to take us out, which would be fine. And they want to have a conversation about flipping it into a triple net. We might have had that conversation as well.

Speaker 2

So, that one just remains to be seen. We're happy with how things are going there. The loan is performing. So, we'll just sort of play it as it goes along.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks, Rick. Appreciate that.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We have our next question from the line of Omotayo Yokusanya with Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.

Speaker 15

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Great comments at the beginning of the call this year, Rick. Speaking on this topic of Medicare and Medicaid, what are your thoughts around if they are eventually to get cut at a kind of more impact the CHIP program versus kind of classic Medicare and Medicaid on the skilled nursing side? Is that all kind of still depend on this trillion dollar number you're talking about?

Speaker 15

How do we kind of think about that of a billion?

Speaker 2

Say it one more time, Tyler, you're breaking up a little bit.

Speaker 15

Sure. So I was talking about again the potential Medicare and Medicaid cuts that we've been discussing on the call. And just speaking to that in terms of the potential amount, is it possible in any way that all the cuts just kind of boil down more towards like the CHIP program or you know than anything else versus you know cuts to Medicare, Medicaid that was impacted nursing like how do we kind of handicap the probability of something like that happening?

Speaker 2

Yes. So, I think it's a fair question. And I think the answer is yes, there are other programs out there like CHIP's Medicaid expansion generally that probably get targeted first. Some of the home based and community programs get targeted first as well. So, yes, I think that's a fair statement, which goes to some of why we feel at least comfortable that even if something does happen, it won't be anything that sort of creates real damage to the space or the portfolio.

Speaker 2

And the other thing I didn't mention on my opening remarks is depending on what the final number is and what sectors get hit, you may see sectors kind of uniting together in their lobbying efforts. There may be some common cause here as well. So, I'm not even sure that you'll see lobbying efforts that are completely independent of each other. So, both in the sectors, from organizations like AARP, there's going to be a lot of activity here around any potential cuts that affect, the indigent and the elderly.

Speaker 15

That's helpful. And one other one, I know it's still pretty early, but any thoughts at this point about how Robert Kennedy may want to run CMS and what the implications are for the industry?

Speaker 2

I have zero idea how to predict anything about this dude. But ask Elon, maybe he's got more insight than I do.

Speaker 10

I appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. We have no further questions at this time. So I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Matros.

Speaker 2

Thanks, everybody, for your time today. Appreciate the support as always. And we look forward to seeing many of you, at the Citi conference. Have a good day.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, that will end Sabra's twenty twenty four fourth quarter earnings call. Have a great rest of your day. Take care.

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Sabra Health Care REIT Q4 2024
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