IDACORP Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 20, 2025

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to IDACORP's Fourth Quarter and Year End twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and our webcast is live. A replay will be available later today and for the next twelve months on the IDACORP website. I will now turn the call over to Amy Shaw, Vice President of Finance, Compliance and Risk. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call. This morning, we issued and posted to IDACORP's website our fourth quarter and year end twenty twenty four earnings release and our Form 10 K. The slides we'll reference during today's call are available on IDACORP's website.

Speaker 1

As noted on Slide two, our discussion today includes forward looking statements, including earnings guidance, spending forecasts, financing plans, regulatory plans and actions and estimates and assumptions that reflect our current views on what the future holds, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today, and we caution against placing any undue reliance on forward looking statements. Our cautionary note on forward looking statements and various risk factors are included in more detail for your review in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As shown on Slide three, we have Lisa Growe, IDACORP's President and CEO and Brian Buckham, IDACORP's Senior Vice President, CFO and Treasurer presenting today. Also, I'm excited to introduce a new member of our Investor Relations team, who some of you have already met.

Speaker 1

In December, we promoted John Wunderlich to Investor Relations Manager. John has been with the company over twelve years in various roles within finance, including our financial planning and analysis team. His depth with the company, along with his strong technical background and his impressive financial modeling abilities are a fantastic addition to our team. We also have other members of our management team available for a Q and A session following our prepared remarks. Slide four shows a summary of our full year financial results.

Speaker 1

IDACORP's diluted earnings per share were $5.5 compared with $5.14 last year. These results include additional tax credit amortization of $29,800,000 for 2024 compared to no additional tax credit amortization in 2023. Today, we initiated our full year 2025 IDACORP earnings guidance estimate in the range of $5.65 to $5.85 diluted earnings per share, which includes our expectation that Idaho Power will use between $60,000,000 and $77,000,000 of additional tax credit amortization to support earnings. These estimates assume historically normal weather conditions throughout the year and normal power supply expenses. It's important to note that approximately $25,000,000 of our expected usage of additional tax credits relates to amortization of incremental tax credits generated from Idaho Power's investment in 2023 battery storage project, which you may recall we removed from the revenue requirement as part of our 2023 general rate case in Idaho and was also not included in the 2024 Idaho limited scope case.

Speaker 1

Now I'll turn the call over to Lisa.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Amy, and thanks to everyone for joining our call. We have many exciting updates for you, and I will begin by celebrating our dedicated employees for their commitment to safety and for the great work they did serving our customers and our owners. We're proud to share that we had our seventeenth consecutive year of earnings growth as shown on Slide five. And we kept our customers' lights on 99.96% of the time despite despite hot summer and increasing energy demand. In fact, we set new summer and winter peaks last year.

Speaker 2

As you can see on Slide six, customer growth remains strong for Idaho Power. At the end of twenty twenty four, we served nearly 650,000 customers after experiencing 2.6% customer growth. We expect growth to stay robust as our local economy continues to outperform national trends as demonstrated by the major projects under development in our area. Moody's most recent GDP calculations for Idaho Power Service Area forecast growth of 4.5% in 2025 and three point seven percent in 2026. In addition, Idaho's total labor force surpassed 1,000,000 workers for the first time in December 2024.

Speaker 2

We continue to see strong interest from businesses looking to locate and expand within Idaho Power's service area. In addition to projects in some of our core industries of food processing, manufacturing, distribution and warehousing, we fielded numerous requests from large energy intensive customers. These new projects would be in addition to our ongoing work with Meta and Micron. Idaho Power's work with those two customers is tracking ahead of schedule as we build substation and transmission infrastructure to support their needs. Last quarter, I referenced a couple of additional energy intensive projects that signed generation and construction study agreements and we're considering executing service agreements with Idaho Power.

Speaker 2

We didn't include them in our load forecast then. As an update, while the specific megawatts and online dates are confidential, one of those potential projects signed an agreement with us and we're continuing discussions on the other project. For the project that did sign, we've now included their early ramp in our load growth estimate, although much of their load comes online after 2029. On another front, we plan to start our work on upgraded infrastructure development for perpetual resources recently permitted mine in Central Idaho soon, which will also be a large special contract customer. We've included perpetual in our load forecast as well.

Speaker 2

We'll need to upgrade 75 miles 75 miles of transmission lines to support their operations and that's in progress. As a reminder, our large load customers pay upfront for upgrades necessary to interconnect and we work closely with them to establish timeframes that will allow us to meet their energy needs while mitigating impact to the rest of our customers. As our customers' energy needs grow and we work to keep our infrastructure development on pace with that growth, our regulatory strategy is vital to financing our operations, being mindful of affordability for customers and continuing to achieve excellent results for our owners. As seen on Slide seven, our Idaho limited issue rate case reached its conclusion right at the end of the year. With the Idaho commission approving an overall increase of $50,100,000 or 3.7% effective January 1.

Speaker 2

This increase will help us recover some of our costs associated with infrastructure investments and labor expenses not included in our 2023 Idaho general rate case. The Idaho commission has also been supportive of our significant investment in the safety of our communities through ongoing enhanced wildfire mitigation efforts. As a reminder, our 2024 Oregon general rate case reached a settlement resulting in an overall increase of $6,700,000 or 12.14% effective 10/15/2024. This was our first general rate case in Oregon since 2011. We will need additional rate filings to collect the level of revenue necessary to finance our operations and allow for a rate of return.

Speaker 2

And to do that, we plan to file another general rate case in Idaho in 2025, likely around the middle of the year with rates expected to go into effect in early twenty twenty six. At this point, we are preparing a full general rate case in 2025 as opposed to the limited scope case we filed in mid twenty twenty four. Customer affordability remains a focus as we grow and even with these recent rate increases, our prices remain 20% to 30% below the national averages as sales growth offsets a large portion of the revenue requirement increases. As we prepare our 2025 IRP, the latest five year forecast for retail sales growth is 8.3% annually as shown on 5.8%. That's a notable increase from the already significant 5.5% growth rate we had in our '23 IRP and the 7.7% preliminary number we shared on the third quarter call last year.

Speaker 2

That annual rate could continue growing if additional large load projects move forward within Idaho Power Service Area. So they would likely come online in stages closer to 02/1930 based on the scale of the infrastructure needed to serve them. With potential load growth of 8.3% or larger, it's easy to see why we continue to need additional resources. We brought nearly 200 megawatts of solar and battery storage capacity online during 2024. Going forward, as shown on slide nine, we selected several wind, solar and battery projects as well as power purchase agreements to meet projected low deficit through 2027.

Speaker 2

This includes a 600 megawatt Wyoming wind project, 300 megawatts of which will be our first company owned wind resource. We have initiated an all sourced RFP for resources needed in 2028 and 2029. The shortlist for the 2028 RFP was published in early January and includes some Idaho Power projects. We expect to have an update for you on our Q3 call, if not sooner. On the transmission topic, as you can see on Slide 10, we continue to make progress on the Boardman To Hemingway project and expect to break ground this summer with an anticipated in service date of no earlier than '27.

Speaker 2

As for Gateway West, we continue to work with Pacificor to coordinate the timing of next steps to best meet customer and system needs. We anticipate a portion of the line in Idaho will be completed in '28 or later. Earlier this month, we entered into an agreement to become a partial owner of Swift North, a high voltage line that will run from the Robinson Summit substation near Ely, Nevada to our midpoint substation. Once the project is in service, Idaho Power plans to purchase an approximate 11% ownership interest. In addition, we entered into a capacity entitlement agreement for approximately 11% of additional capacity on the line over a forty year term.

Speaker 2

We expect construction to begin as early as this year and take approximately two years to complete. Turning to slide 11, I'm pleased to share that Scott Madison has been appointed serve on the Board of Directors of IDACOR and Idaho Power. Scott recently retired as the Executive Vice President of Business Development and Gas Supply for the MDU Utilities Group. Scott has been with MDU since 1997 and he brings extensive board experience and leadership in the areas of business strategy, finance and customer service. His ties to Idaho and deep knowledge of public the public utility sector make him a great addition to our board.

Speaker 2

I'll close with some good news on hydropower conditions. Our current snowpack above Bramley is over 120% of average and the other significant basins are trending above average as well. And we're expecting the snowpack to improve as snow continues to accumulate. A strong finish to the winter season will bode well for our hydropower operations and so far been great for skiing as well. With that, I'll turn the time over to Brian.

Speaker 3

Thanks Lisa. Hi everybody. I'm going to start on Slide 12 with our reconciliation of year end results. If I had to pick three primary drivers for last year's results, I'd highlight strong customer growth, the rate changes and the Idaho ADITC regulatory mechanism, which we actually used on the credit amortization side instead of on the sharing side for the first time last year. Looking ahead, I'd highlight those same items as some of our expected primary drivers of results for this year as well.

Speaker 3

Getting into the details of last year, Adacorp's net income increased $28,000,000 compared to 2023. That was due to higher net income at Idaho Power from the January rate increase and from customer growth. The benefit of customer growth continues to stand out in the reconciliation that you can see. The usage on a per customer basis below that was relatively flat for most customer classes with the exception of an increase for irrigation customers. Overall usage was relatively high.

Speaker 3

Cooling degree days were 37% higher than normal and heating degree days were only 9% below normal last year. A similar situation played out in 2023 with higher than normal cooling degree days and slightly lower heating degree days, which is why usage per customer was high, but relatively consistent between the years. Total other O and M expenses increased $61,100,000 While that initially seems high context matters for that, that increase was primarily from roughly eighteen million dollars of increased pension related expenses and $30,000,000 in increased wildfire mitigation and related insurance expenses. And remember, those costs were mostly offset by increases in revenues because they were included in the 2023 Idaho general rate case for recovery through base rates after formerly being recorded as deferrals. Labor related expenses also contributed to the increase in other O and M expenses.

Speaker 3

These increases were partially offset by an $8,500,000 increase in deferral of other O and M expenses for the conversion of coal to natural gas for two units at the Jim Bridger Power Plant. Depreciation expense increased $28,100,000 for the year, which was an expected increase from the system investments that we've been making. On a net basis, other changes in operating revenues and expenses increased operating income by $30,800,000 This resulted in part from a decrease in net power supply expenses that weren't deferred for future recovery and rates through the power cost adjustment mechanisms. More moderate wholesale natural gas and power market prices in the Western Region in combination with higher wholesale energy sales decreased Idaho Power's net power supply expenses last year. Also property taxes contributed to the change mostly from the successful conclusion of multi year litigation efforts challenging Idaho and Oregon property tax valuation which resulted in refunds of prior year taxes being finalized in 2024.

Speaker 3

And the change was also partially due to the timing of recording and adjusting regulatory accruals and deferrals. Non operating expenses increased $2,200,000 in 2024 on a net basis, mainly driven by an increase in interest expense because our long term debt balance has increased. Idaho Power's earnings from its investment in Richard Coal Company decreased due to a decrease in the amount recovered in base rates under the 2023 Idaho rate case settlement. And then partially offsetting those items were increased AFUDC from a higher construction work in progress balance and also increased interest income from higher interest rates on our cash investments. Historically, we've shared $127,000,000 with our customers under the Idaho regulatory mechanism.

Speaker 3

Last year, for the first time since that mechanism has been in place, Idaho Power amortized additional tax credits to reach the 9.12 floor level of Idaho return on year end equity. We ended up recording $29,800,000 of additional ADIC amortization, which was mostly the result of regulatory lag and our high CapEx environment. Also relating to taxes, the $18,600,000 relative increase in income tax expense, excluding the ADITC amortization I mentioned was due to higher income before income taxes and also variances in flow through tax adjustments. Moving on to slide 13, we've updated our five year capex forecast. We're currently forecasting spending $1,100,000,000 per year on average over the twenty twenty five to twenty ninth twenty twenty nine forecast period and a total five year CapEx amount of $5,600,000,000 So that's basically a doubling of our average annual spend of $554,000,000 during the past five years.

Speaker 3

If you look at the cash flow statement, you'll see additions to PP and E in 2024 exceeded $1,000,000,000 for the first time. And quick on the balance sheet is over $1,200,000,000 I think that's indicative of how busy we've been over the past couple of years and it's not slowing down. I'd say to the contrary, we expect our spending to only increase to meet growth and reliability requirements. Consistent with what we've stated in the past, we take a conservative approach to reporting our CapEx expectations. We don't include capital in our forecast until we're relatively certain it will materialize.

Speaker 3

And because of that, there's still potential upside to our forecast. As Lisa mentioned, we recently developed a final shortlist for the twenty twenty eight RFP projects and we've also begun evaluating bids for the twenty twenty nine RFP projects. We have item power projects on the shortlist for the twenty twenty eight RFP but because we haven't made final selections, we don't include any of those RFP projects in our CapEx forecast or in our rate base forecast. So depending on results from the RFPs, we could see additional spend in the forecast period. Lisa also mentioned that Idaho Power signed an agreement with an additional large load project at the end of last year and also one with the mining company Perpetua and that our discussions are ongoing with potential additional large project in our pipeline.

Speaker 3

The results of the twenty eight and twenty nine RFPs will be helpful in certain both loads and they could also culminate into additional CapEx further out in the window for us. Building the needed infrastructure is just one element. We also need to convert into rate base to keep the utility financially healthy and to provide returns to the debt and equity holders funding that growth. We rolled forward our rate base forecast for the twenty twenty five to twenty twenty nine period, which you can see on slide 14. Coming out of our most recent Idaho case, our rate base at the end of twenty twenty four was about $4,600,000,000 When we roll forward to 2025 and pull 2029 into the forecast window, we estimate rate base increasing by around $5,100,000,000 by the end of twenty twenty nine, which is more than doubling our rate base in that five year span.

Speaker 3

When we layer on our updated estimated rate base additions from 2025 through 2029, aligning with the outcome of our last Idaho rate case. Our current projected rate base CAGR is 16.1. And that's again before factoring in potential additional rate base from pending RFP outcomes. That's a tremendous amount of growth and for that we'll need growth capital. We have a strong balance sheet now and we intend to keep it that way through this long growth cycle with an average fiftyfifty debt equity capital ratio target that we've mentioned in the past.

Speaker 3

Related to that, moving to Slide 15, the amount of external financing we estimate we need for 2025 through 2029 just for the capital already in the plan is about 1,400,000,000 in equity and about $2,200,000,000 in debt to stay at that ratio. Now that's over a five year period and the amounts needed in each year aren't likely to be equivalent, but we do have a degree of optionality on the timing and the nature of our issuances. We We still expect to see a step down in the amount of our external capital needs further out when revenues from large special contract customers increases. Though one caveat on that and not a bad thing, we expect incremental financing would be necessary for any company owned projects in the pending RFPs probably weighted toward the out years in that forecast window. For the equity side, we have an ATM program in place and that's been a cost effective and efficient method for us to issue equity.

Speaker 3

We could potentially use ATM programs to fund a considerable amount of our equity needs over the next several years. And as we noted on Slide 16, we sold around $92,000,000 of equity on a forward basis under the ATM in the fourth quarter. We'll plan to draw on that sometime this year. Also on slide 16, cash flow from operations improved substantially from last year. Nearly $600,000,000 of operating cash flows in 2024, which was close to a net $325,000,000 comparative increase.

Speaker 3

The June 23 power supply cost rate change, the revenue benefit of the Idaho general rate case outcome and a notable moderation in power supply costs all contributed to that. And those cash flows also helped reduce our financing needs and leaves IDACORP for the strong cash position as of today. I'm going to wrap up by reiterating two key points I mentioned last quarter. First, the importance of maintaining affordability for customers through this CapEx cycle. Just as a reminder, the thoughtful and constructive regulatory construct in Idaho looks to allocate appropriate costs to the special contract customers for whom we're developing some of our infrastructure.

Speaker 3

And customer growth in the denominator of our regulatory equation helps to absorb what might otherwise be larger rate increases for existing customers. Owning long lived assets and being efficient stewards of the company's capital are obviously also helpful.

Speaker 4

And second, as I said

Speaker 3

on the last call, we expect to see what we believe to be among the leading earnings growth and earnings quality profiles in the industry over our forecast window. That gives us Genesis from a demonstrated CapEx need for our growing customer base with a steel already in the ground and a path to affordable conversion to rate base. It's not necessarily linear growth just as our annual financing needs

Speaker 4

aren't necessarily equal or linear nor

Speaker 3

are our large customer ramp rates. Large customer ramp rates. We're building and financing much of the infrastructure ahead of the time revenues from use of that infrastructure come in the door. As you've seen, the regulatory process has an element of lag, particularly in this environment of high CapEx and high interest rates. But I used the phrase earnings horsepower last quarter when I described vertically integrated infrastructure that we're building for our current and future customers.

Speaker 3

And that horsepower is most certainly intact and my prior comments today reflect that. We'll keep focusing on solid execution in this period of enormous growth and what we expect to be a continued constructive regulatory environment. With that, I'm going to turn it over to John to step through our 2025 guidance and estimated key operating metrics.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Brian. I'm excited to join the IR team and I look forward to meeting many of you in person in the coming weeks as we will be out and about. Brian and Amy asked me to share an interesting fact about myself as part of my introduction. So I want to share that I am a third grade assistant basketball coach, which is a fantastic opportunity for me to develop patience, persistence and positivity. Slide 17 shows our twenty twenty five full year earnings guidance and key operating metrics.

Speaker 5

This guidance assumes normal weather throughout 2025 and normal power supply expenses. We expect IDACORP's diluted earnings per share this year to be in the range of $5.65 to $5.85 with the assumption that Idaho Power will use $60,000,000 to $77,000,000 of additional investment tax credit amortization. That $77,000,000 top end is what we currently have remaining in the mechanism. Though we could file an application requesting that the Idaho PUC allow Idaho Power to add additional credits to the mechanism. Legacy credits on our balance sheet or credits from current battery projects.

Speaker 5

We expect full year O and M expense to be in the range of $465,000,000 to $475,000,000 We anticipate spending between $1,000,000,000 and $1,100,000,000 on CapEx in 2025. As the five year forecast showed, we expect to see these higher CapEx numbers for the next few years as we continue to respond to growth in our service area. Finally, given our current forecast of hydropower operating conditions, we expect hydropower generation to be within the range of 6.5 to 8,500,000 megawatt hours for the year. We have solid carryover from our prior year and snowpack so far this year has been favorable with the storms that have been rolling through lately. With that, we're happy to address any questions you might have.

Operator

Thank you. We are now ready to begin the question and answer session for attendees who have joined the Q and A line. If you would like to ask a question, please do so by pressing star one on your phone. Please ensure the mute function is turned off before you ask your question. We will take as many questions as time permits on a first come basis.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Alex Mortimer of Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, Alex.

Speaker 6

Hi, good afternoon, team.

Speaker 5

Hi, Alex.

Speaker 6

So you mentioned, just a couple of seconds ago, you mentioned the potential filing to replenish the ADITC mechanism. Can you just discuss a little bit of what that process would potentially look like?

Speaker 2

Well, I think there's a couple of ways that we could do that. If we included it in our, general rate case request or if it would be a separate filing, we are still working through those details.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. And then I guess turning to the FFO to debt side, can you say where you ended the year from a credit metric perspective? And then how you think you'd like to be tracking in the future given that seems like period end rate based treatment kind of seems unlikely given how the last case went? And then finally, just any conversations you've had with rating agencies following the conclusion of the rate case?

Speaker 3

Yeah. Alex, this is Brian. So just to give you, the answer to your first question, where we ended up for 2024. On Moody's, I would say we ended up near 18%. Cash flow pre working capital over debt at IDACORP, maybe 17% at IDACORP.

Speaker 3

It's usually slightly lower. For S and P, the numbers were a little lower, probably around 14.5 on FFO to debt at that level for IDACORP. So as we look ahead on those, we do see at least some diminishment for 2025. If you think about cash flow from operations for 2024 coming in at $600,000,000 That's unlikely to be repeated because it includes collection of some power supply costs from a prior year. So I would expect cash flow to to fall somewhat.

Speaker 3

And then also we do have a debt financing need during 2025. I would guess an issue on somewhere in the order of 350 to $450,000,000 So so a little reduction in the numerator and then some addition to the denominator will have an impact on our, credit metrics for 2025. We do have the downgrade thresholds around 1314% for S and P. And so I think for the next couple of years, you could expect us to be hovering around those thresholds, not near our target, which is typically 200 basis points above our downgrade thresholds. In terms of conversations, we're actually meeting with the reading agencies next week for an update.

Speaker 3

We have had conversations about the rate case outcome with them. It was a good rate case outcome. You've seen in their reports that some of the things that they want to see are, you know, improvements in reductions of regulatory lag, whether it be through mechanisms or or frequent rate filings. And, you know, as Lisa mentioned, we would file a general rate case this year and that's to help with reduction in regulatory lag and to help shore up credit metrics.

Speaker 6

Wonderful. Thanks so much. I'll leave it there. Congrats on a great year.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Great. Thanks, Alex.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David O'Karel, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, David. Hi, David. We can't hear you, David.

Speaker 4

Sorry about that. I'm talking to myself there. Thanks so much for taking the question. Reflecting on the regulatory backdrop here in the outcome of the rate case, I was wondering, do you still see an opportunity to shift to a period end rate based framework with the commission in the future? Or should we be thinking potentially the capital trackers might be another avenue to pursue?

Speaker 4

Curious, your latest thoughts.

Speaker 2

Well, I think we're looking at all options. The commission was open in their order for mechanisms or some other, ways to to narrow the the regulatory lag. So, you know, I think we continue to explore, all those options.

Speaker 3

Yeah. And this is Brian. I would just add to that. You know, as Lisa mentioned, everything's on the table. I wouldn't say that period on rate base is off the table.

Speaker 3

You know, the commission has a mindset of a healthy utility, for for us. And as we've looked at the case from last time, I think we made a pretty reasonable ask of what we needed on a conservative basis. In a limited scope case, a period end rate base wasn't something that that necessarily was going to bolt from that. But in a more general broad rate case, it could be a different outcome. So we'll be exploring that as we go forward.

Speaker 3

And there it also doesn't prevent us from filing some one off rate cases also that have some form of cash benefit for us.

Speaker 4

Okay. Got it. Understood. That makes sense. And then I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate a bit more on the incremental load growth that you're seeing.

Speaker 4

Are there you mentioned a couple of customers and even some more large load customers in the works. What are you seeing from any data center activity in your service area? And are there certain industry verticals where you're seeing a particularly strong incremental new projects looking to site in your service territory from here? Certainly, it doesn't sound like growth is slowing down.

Speaker 2

Yes. I would say it's a good challenge to have for sure. And we're seeing it across a lot of industries. But yes, we've been talking a lot about meta data center that's under construction. And there is interest in others that are from that that same industry.

Speaker 2

So, I think they're sort of everywhere asking, all utilities what they can do. But I think as far as agriculture, mining, health care, I mean, there's some very large projects that are going in all around our service area. Adam, what would you add?

Speaker 7

I think you covered most of it. Maybe two additional ones. We're seeing a fair amount of inquiries on the dairy side and also on the biodigester side and really just basic manufacturing in general. So I think data centers and the loads you see there are the largest, but we're seeing a steady inquiry of a variety of different industries. Idaho is popular and people are coming here.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Yes, it definitely sounds broad based. Much appreciated. Thank you. Thanks, David.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus of Seabury William Strand. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good afternoon, everybody. Lisa, can

Speaker 8

you address your thoughts on the executive orders from Washington so far? And do any of the orders sort of change your thoughts on generation mix going forward at all?

Speaker 2

Well, as everyone is trying to do, we're waiting to see sort of which ones go into effect and which ones don't. We're actively monitoring all of them. We're hopeful that maybe some of the permitting and siting might get a little bit easier going forward. That has been a very big challenge for any kind of infrastructure and anything that would streamline those processes would be very helpful. As far as the mix, certainly we use the least risk, least cost analysis in what gets chosen in the preferred portfolio for our IRP.

Speaker 2

So at this point in time, we don't necessarily see that it would change what we're planning. But depending on sort of how the tax credits and some of the funding through the IIJA or IRA, what ends up happening there could change some of that IRP planning for sure.

Speaker 9

Okay.

Speaker 2

Anything

Speaker 7

Maybe Chris, I think you covered the main issues. Lease, I do think there is maybe going to be fewer restrictions on the thermal side. There's been a fair amount of talk about that and then obviously potentially changing in position on the Clean Air Act. So we're keeping an eye on those and so far, they look like they may be beneficial at the end of the day from a resource perspective.

Speaker 2

And I don't think we've seen the last of all of them either. So we will continue to monitor.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's helpful.

Speaker 8

Can you characterize your fourth quarter weather a little bit for us?

Speaker 2

You know, it was it seems like it stayed warm for a while and then it got really cold. So, I think it was also a little bit surprising that, we had snow right after Thanksgiving, which was kind of not forecasted and pleasant surprise for those of us that like to recreate out there. So I think in general, I don't know that historically, it was a wide variation. It felt sort of like a normal winter and

Speaker 1

late summer.

Speaker 7

Okay.

Speaker 8

When you put together the two point seven percent twenty year load growth forecast, do you include anything in that number for some of the large loads that remain sort of contractual loads to this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. We are very conservative before we add prospective loads into our load forecast. So generally, it's a signed agreement or one that's really close to being signed. So we we usually, are we have historically put only loads in that have a very high degree of certainty.

Speaker 7

Yeah. Chris, this is Adam. At the end of the five year period, kind of going in five, six year period of that twenty years, you'll see a little bit of that, just because some of these large loads extend into that period. But beyond that, it's typically more of a forecast, load forecast look.

Speaker 8

Okay. Sort of, I don't know how many years, last three, four, five years, you've seen an acceleration to a degree in your customer growth. Can you separate out

Speaker 3

can you tell which portions

Speaker 8

of customer growth are coming from, say, in migration versus new customers coming in to support the business development in the region? Do you get any sort of clarity on what the source of your new customer growth is?

Speaker 2

So I would say, it's heavily skewed to the large commercial industrial. Some of it's coming from out of state. Some of it is current customers expanding. But the in migration of residential customers is actually fairly modest. When you compare it against the sort of oversized impact of the large commercial industrial customers, there are hundreds of megawatts.

Speaker 2

So it just it would take a lot of single family homes to make that up and by percentage.

Speaker 7

Sure. Yeah. Chris, is that typically if you look at that 8.3% over that five year period, it's around a percent or less that's on the residential side. So that might give you a little bit of an idea of what Lisa just mentioned. A lot of it is C and I growth into these large loads.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. One last thing, Brian, you were talking about in the one line item property tax refunds from some litigation, I think you said. Was that in a particular period? And can you give us any kind of sense of the magnitude of what that looked like?

Speaker 3

Yeah. Chris, that was over a three year historic property tax period, if I remember correctly. Sort of a one time event that we litigated the valuation methodology for those. And based on that, I think pre tax number was around $10,000,000 that we recorded in 2024.

Speaker 8

Great. That's very helpful. All right. Thanks a bunch. Appreciate it, guys.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Craig.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, good afternoon. It's actually Brian Russo on for Julien.

Speaker 2

Hi, Brian. Hi.

Speaker 9

Just to clarify, the new rate base disclosures that are illustrated on the slide, is each year now the average rate base versus year end to correlate with the rate case order and the 2024 rate base that you're showing, which I believe is average, but is every year average rate base?

Speaker 3

Yes, Brian, this is Brian. So the 2024 number that we're promising it on is the outcome of the rate case, which used an average methodology. And then as you go on a go forward basis, we did assume more conservatively an averaging approach for each of the subsequent years out through 2029.

Speaker 9

Okay. So you've now switched to an average rate base approach. Great. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 9

And then I'm just curious with the increased load forecast of 8.3, does the twenty eight and twenty nine RFPs, enough for that? Or should we expect a 2,030 RFP to follow?

Speaker 7

Brian, it's a good question. This is Adam. We received a fair amount of projects in the '28, '20 '9 RFPs. So we were pretty pleased with the results there, including some idle power projects. We are still evaluating 2,030.

Speaker 7

It will know probably in the next couple of months whether we need to go out again. But at this time, it's kind of in the evaluation stages.

Speaker 9

Okay. And is the Ida proposed bids in the '28, '20 '9 RFPs, is that base load generation project?

Speaker 7

So in the '28, no. In the '29, I wouldn't call phase load, but there there is, reciprocating engines in that bit. The more peaker type facilities. Dispatchful facilities.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then you mentioned the Swift North interest of 11%. I think it's a $1,000,000,000 project. Are there any milestones left before construction begins? And then when would, IDACORP's financial commitments be necessary?

Speaker 9

And then I assume that is incremental to the CapEx forecast?

Speaker 7

Yes. This is Adam again. You're right. The public figure, I think, is $1,230,000,000 although we're still evaluating that, it ends up being around $4,000,000 plus a mile. They received a record decision.

Speaker 7

It's actually a permit that we own. I don't power back in the day, and we sold it. That's a less power when we did when we did see the growth, and now we're seeing the growth again. So we're getting back involved. 285 miles.

Speaker 7

We hope to start construction, this year, maybe late this year, early next year. And the contract works is we actually don't pay until, the in service date is met. So, the CapEx expenditure would be at that time. So starts in 2025, '20 '20 '6, '2 years after that. And Brian,

Speaker 3

the answer to the last part of your question, we do have that transmission line in our CapEx forecast.

Speaker 9

Okay. It's in the CapEx. And then just while we're on transmission, I know Boardman to Hemingway is a preferred resource in your IRPs. Is there a risk of further delays of the not just construction, but at the actual start date or into Hemingway? How do you mitigate the risk of the capacity that that transmission line was going to provide?

Speaker 9

Could that be done in another RFP or would you just source it on the wholesale markets?

Speaker 7

It's a great question. Yes, it would probably be through another RFP. The wholesale markets have been pretty tight. And so we look at the 2028, '20 '20 '9 RFPs and we start to get concerned that B2H will get held up. We would pull the trigger and look at additional resources in those RFPs.

Speaker 2

But we are feeling good about, you know, working our way to the to the, construction date to get this this line started after a long a long journey. So we feel good about projects.

Speaker 7

We've hit some pretty key federal permitting milestones. We were close to hitting another key state milestone. Materials are coming in and they're coming to our staging area. And so construction in the summer is is looking pretty good at this point.

Speaker 9

All right. Understood. Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Brent. Thanks.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. That concludes the question and answer session for today. Ms. Groh, I will turn the conference back over to you.

Speaker 2

Well, thanks to everyone again for joining us today and for your continued interest in IDACOR. I hope you all have a great evening.

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Earnings Conference Call
IDACORP Q4 2024
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