SBA Communications Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Welcome and thank you for joining the SBA Fourth-Quarter 2024 Results. This call is being recorded. All participant audio lines are in listen-only mode until the Q&A session of the call. We'll give you instructions on how to enter the queue at that time.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark DeRussy, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

Mark DeRussy
Vice President, Finance at SBA Communications

Thank you. Good evening, and thank you for joining us for SBA's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Here with me today are Brendan Cavanagh, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Marc Montagner, our Chief Financial Officer.

Some of the information we will discuss on this call is forward-looking, including but not limited to, any guidance for 2025 and beyond. In today's press release and in our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, February 24, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make.

In addition, our comments will include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics. The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found on our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our Investor Relations website. As part of ongoing effort to improve our earnings materials, we have made certain modifications to the supplemental financial data package and we'll be providing the materials in both PDF and Excel form. Note, the revised package does not exclude any previously provided financial or operating metrics.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Brendan.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon.

The fourth-quarter was a solid finish to the year. Results for the quarter were in-line to slightly ahead of our estimates, even with worse than assumed foreign-exchange rates. Domestic new carrier activity or bookings continued to increase sequentially from the third-quarter. The shift in the makeup of our new business also continued. The higher percentage coming from new lease colocations versus amendments to existing leases.

Our carrier customers continue to expand their 5G mid-band coverage, including adding capacity for fixed wireless access, as well as extend network coverage into areas of the country that have little-to-no cell coverage today. Even with increased bookings in the quarter, our leasing application backlogs grew throughout the quarter and finished at the highest-level of the year. And our U.S.-based services business had its best quarter of the year as well. The beginning of 2025 is also off to a strong start, suggesting another quarter-over-quarter increase in new leasing business to begin this year. And our 2025 services outlook contemplates a year-over-year increase in that business.

Our US customers are busy and we expect to be a key partner to them this year in support of their network goals. Internationally, our fourth-quarter results were in-line with expectations as our customers continued to invest in their networks. In almost all of our international markets, the mobile network operators are well behind the US in terms of 5G coverage. So we anticipate continued network investment to close that gap and to broadly expand coverage to underserved areas.

In many ways, wireless is an even more critical service in our international markets than in the US. International churn unfortunately continues to be elevated, largely due to customer consolidations and we are working closely with our customers to help them achieve necessary network efficiencies. We believe the surviving customers will be stronger and better-positioned for ongoing investments and ultimately will support greater stabilization in our international cash flows. Overall, 2024 was a successful year. While our stock performance was hindered by the headwinds of the macro interest-rate environment and a strong dollar, we had several accomplishments that set us up well for the future.

Operationally, we expanded and strengthened our relationships with our largest customers. We grew our leasing and services backlogs, refreshed our mission, vision and values and streamlined a number of our operations and processes. With regard to capital allocation, we invested over $550 million in asset acquisitions, stock repurchases and new tower builds, all while growing our dividend at an industry-leading 15%. We also improved our balance sheet and liquidity position.

In the beginning of the year, we refinanced our $2.3 billion term-loan, pushing out the maturity to 2031, extended the maturity of our revolving credit facility and increased it from $1.5 billion to $2 billion and subsequently entered into a forward-starting interest-rate hedge, reducing our future floating-rate interest exposure and locking in a much lower rate than can be achieved today. In addition, in October, we refinanced $2.1 billion of tower securities at rates well below where those same securities were priced today. We ended the year at 6.1 times net-debt to adjusted EBITDA, the lowest level in our history.

In February of last year, I laid out my strategic priorities, focusing mostly on ways to enhance the portfolio with the goals to stabilize results, grow the core business and improve the overall quality of our assets, be it through inorganic growth or new agreements with our customers. While we still have work to do, we made major strides toward these goals. As announced last quarter, we entered into an agreement to purchase approximately 7,000 towers from in Central America. This immediately accretive transaction positions SBA as the leading power operator in the region with over 10,500 pro-forma sites. Beyond just the absolute size and scale, this deal aligns us with one of the leading M&Os in the market under long-term US dollar-nominated lease agreements.

We also entered into a significant build-to-suit agreement with that we expect will drive growth and further improve our position in the region for years to come. In fact, our 2025 outlook incorporates a planned level of up to 800 new tower builds this year, the largest number for SBA in over 20 years with the majority of those in Central America. Needless to say, we're excited about this transaction and its contributions to our future growth and stability. Alternatively, when we are in a subscale position and don't see a path to scale or other potential limitations on a market's future performance, we'll look to exit those markets.

Like we did in Argentina back-in the fourth-quarter of 2023, we officially exited the Philippines in January. And today, we've also announced we are under agreement to sell our operations in Colombia. Colombia market represents less than 200 sites and the impact to the financials are immaterial. It is not our desire to exit markets. In fact, it's much more our preference to find ways to scale, aligning with leading carriers and driving returns. We will continue to look for ways to do just that across our remaining markets. Each of the steps taken over the past year will help our teams be better focused and better-positioned to maximize new business opportunities.

Looking at 2025 and beyond, the key growth drivers remain intact. Mobile network consumption continues to grow and limited new spectrum availability means more equipment at the cell site. Fixed wireless access, the incorporation of next-gen AI applications and handsets, regulatory build-out requirements and remaining 5G coverage expansion are expected to contribute to ongoing network investments. The strength of our balance sheet and the significant free-cash flow that we generate every year will allow us to continue investing in high-quality new assets as well as shareholder remuneration through industry-leading dividend growth and share repurchases. We are optimistic about our future opportunities.

Before turning it over to Marc, I'd like to thank our team members, the company's ability to achieve our vision to be our customers' first choice provider and the industry-leader in quality infrastructure solutions is only possible because of the incredibly hard-working team members we have here at SBA. I'd also like to thank our customers for their trust in us and we look-forward to collaborating with them to achieve their network goals.

And with that, I'll now turn things over to Marc who will provide additional details.

Marc Montagner
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at SBA Communications

Thank you, Brendan.

Fourth-quarter domestic organic revenue growth over the fourth-quarter of last year was 5.1% on a gross basis and 2.2% on a net basis, increasing 2.9% of churn. In the quarter, we added approximately $8.5 million in new leases and amendments payings. With respect to the 2.9% of churn, 1.6% was related to sprint consolidation or approximately $7 million. Year-over-year, international organic recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the fourth-quarter, which is calculated on a constant-currency basis was 1.7% net, including 6% of churn or 7.7% on a gross basis.

In Brazil, our largest international market, gross organic growth was 8.7% on a constant-currency basis. Total international churn remained elevated in the fourth-quarter due mostly to previously-announced key carrier consolidation. During the fourth-quarter, consolidated cash site leasing revenue and adjusted EBITDA denominated in US dollars was 78% and 81% respectively. The majority of non-US dollar-denominated revenue was from Brazil with Brazil representing 15.6% of consolidated cash site leasing revenues during the quarter. This earnings press release includes our initial 2025 outlook. Domestically, outlook reflects both the lower level of carrier bookings we experienced in 2024 and our expectations for increased activity throughout 2025.

We're guiding to a range of $35 million to $39 million more from new leases and amendment. The outlook also assumes a range of $50 million to $52 million related to and $20 million to $22 million of regular churn. Our previously provided estimate of aggregate spring-related churn over the next several years remains largely unchanged with an estimate of approximately $50 million in 2026 and approximately $20 million thereafter. For International segment, our outlook reflects steady network investment guiding to a range of $16 million to $18 million for new re-season amendment. The outlook also assume a range of $27 million to $31 million related to churn.

Churn continues to be elevated as we work-through carrier consolidations, some carrier bankruptcies or restructurings and wise operators' network. We are working with our current customers to minimize churns over the long-term. Additionally, FX continues to be a headwind and we're guiding to a negative $25 million year-over-year impact from FX on-site leasing revenue.

Turning to services, we're guiding to a range of $160 million to $180 million revenue, reflecting the increased carry activity we are seeing at our sites today. We saw a meaningful increase in activity in the second-half of 2024 and we expect to see similar level throughout 2025. Outlook assume an anticipated closing date of September 1 for the previously-announced transaction contributing approximately $42 million to cash revenue and $29 million of our cash-flow to our 2025 outlook. The ultimate closing date is dependent upon regulatory approval and other requirements and may differ from these date. Please also note that the outlook does not assume any further acquisition beyond those which as of today are under contract and expect it to close by year end. We also do not assume any share repurchase in our outlook. However, it is possible when investing additional asset or share repurchase or both during the year.

I will now turn the call over to Mark who will provide additional details.

Mark DeRussy
Vice President, Finance at SBA Communications

Thanks, Marc.

As we previously-announced on our third-quarter call-in October of last year, the company issued through an existing trust two tranches of power revenue securities for a total of $2.07 billion, which included a tranche of $620 million issued at 4.654% 0.654% with an anticipated repayment date of October 2027 and a final maturity date of October 2054. We also issued a tranche of $1.45 billion issued at 4.831% with anticipated repayment date of October 2029 and a final maturity date of October 2054. Our next maturity is a $750 million ABS note due January 2026.

Our current leverage is 6.1 times net-debt to adjusted EBITDA and fourth-quarter net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense was very strong at 5.5 times. Our weighted-average maturity is approximately 3.4 years with an average interest-rate of 3.2% across our total outstanding debt. As of today, our $2 billion revolver remains fully underdrawn. During the fourth-quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of $105.4 million or $0.98 per share.

And today, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a first-quarter dividend of $1.11 per share payable on, 27, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 13, 2025. This dividend represents an increase of approximately 13% over the dividend paid-in the fourth-quarter of 2024 and approximately 35% of the midpoint of our full-year AFFO outlook.

And with that, operator, we are ready to turn the call over to questions.

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Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, as we move on to Q&A, please dial pound to on your telephone keypad to be placed in the question queue. You'll hear a notification when it's your turn to ask your question at that point, your line will be unmuted.

Okay. And let's go-ahead and go to our first caller, Batya Levi from UBS.

Batya Levi
Analyst at UBS Securities

Great. Thank you. Can you put a little bit more color on the increase in the backlog that you're seeing right now? Do you see that coming from increased applications from a specific tenant or is it more broad across your -- all your tenants?

And maybe some color in terms of how should we think about the book-to-bill cycle to be with co-location increasing? I know you just guided for '25, but if we assume it's a back-end loaded year, is it fair to assume you have good visibility for US leasing to be up next year? Thank you.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yes. So the mix in terms of the backlog, I would say is fairly broad. It's not exactly the same for each carrier. There are certain ones that are perhaps a little busier than others. But generally speaking, they're all-up in terms of the -- the applications that are coming in. And there are more -- as we mentioned in our prepared comments, there definitely are more -- there's more business coming from new leases relative to amendments to existing leases like we've seen in the past. And so that shift in the mix of the type of new bookings that we're seeing will drive the book-to-bill cycle to be later and therefore, we would expect to see growth quarter-over-quarter throughout this year in terms of the contributions domestically from new leases and amendments.

And so yeah, I think that generally speaking, would be favorable to next year, but it's certainly a little premature to be talking about what next year's number is going to look like. Let's see how this year plays out, but our expectation is we'll see growth move-up as we move through the year.

Batya Levi
Analyst at UBS Securities

Sounds good. Thank you.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

All right. Moving on to our next caller, Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. With many of your carrier customers in the US having sort of given a multiyear outlook for capex, which is sort of consistent with what we've seen over the past couple of years, how should we think about your ability to sort of grow domestic leasing in the out years relative to this year's guidance if those budgets remain where they are? And maybe what are some of the areas that would allow you to sort of outperform that -- those overall capex growth envelopes, whether it's densification, fixed wireless or otherwise?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah, Jim, I mean the carriers obviously have very large capex budgets. And so what would probably be relatively minor shifts in the mix or makeup of those capex budgets can have a more meaningful impact on us. And so I'm not too concerned about their overall capex budgets being relatively flat because what we're seeing on-the-ground is a lot more activity around their wireless networks and specifically the macro-based networks. So you know, as I look out into the future, I can only see what's happening now and what they're telling us today and that suggests a lot more activity. And I think actually the lack of incremental spectrum being added to the mix means that they have to make sure that what they have stretches farther and I think that's actually going to turn out to be decent for us in terms of their planning in the next couple of years.

James Schneider
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Thanks. And then Brendan, just to follow-up on that. I believe in your opening script, you mentioned that you saw demand specifically for fixed wireless capacity additions. Can you maybe clarify whether that is fixed wireless capacity above and beyond or completely separate from conventional mobile capacity or maybe any color on where that is happening would be helpful. Thank you.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah, it's -- I mean, honestly, it's a little bit hard to distinguish from what we see going on to the sites in terms of basic 5G mobile capacity versus fixed wireless access. But what we're hearing is, you know, in our conversations with the carriers on-the-ground that, that is a meaningful driver of the incremental investment in some of these locations. So what I'm giving you, I guess I would characterize as anecdotal, but we're definitely seeing the increased activity. And so we mentioned that because it is one of the drivers that we hear from our customers as to the increased investment that they're making, but I think it's probably an all-the-above type of thing ultimately.

James Schneider
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Great. Thank you.

Operator

All right. Before we move on to our next caller, I just want to remind everyone that if you'd like to ask a question, please dial pound two on your telephone keypad to be placed in the queue. All right. Let's move on to our next caller, Matt Niknam from Deutsche Bank.

Matthew Niknam
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Hey, thanks so much for taking the question. Just two, if I could. First, on the leasing outlook for '25. Maybe, Brendan, if there's any commentary you can offer up in terms of what's baked-in for customer-specific activity across the three nationals in DISH?

And then just secondly, on the services outlook. So the guidance for $160 million to $180 million. It's a little bit shy of the annualized exit-rate from 4Q. If you just annualize the fourth-quarter number, it implies closer to 190. And so I'm just wondering if there were any one-timers in the fourth-quarter or if you're assuming any sort of moderation from any customers next year? Thanks.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure. Yeah. So on the second one first, there's no one-timers in the fourth-quarter. I think you know what we're giving you is based on what we have in our backlog today and the conversations we're having with the carriers, the services guidance is a little bit harder to be completely precise on when you look out for the full-year at this stage of the year because it's not a long-term contractual cycle the way it is in the leasing business. So as you get to the second-half of the year, we tend to take perhaps a slight bit of conservatism in our approach to the back-half of the year. So I don't think there's anything really that you should read into that, Matt, in terms of -- against the fourth-quarter of last year.

On the leasing outlook, yes, I mean, we prefer to stay away from too much detail on a customer-specific basis. As I mentioned in the answer to a previous question, we're seeing each of the big three carriers have increased their activity levels. And so they're all contributing to that. We do have contributions from certain carriers that have regulatory obligations for coverage and download -- downlink speeds that are driving a big percentage of the activity that we're seeing. So in one particular case, that's the main driver. But really, they're all busier. So I would say among the big three, that's the case. And as it relates to DISH, you know, we're not seeing nearly as much as we have in the past. So that's a much lesser contribution.

Matthew Niknam
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Thank you.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

Okay. Moving on to Richard Choe, J.P. Morgan.

Richard Choe
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hi. I just wanted to follow-up on the mix of business. I assume still kind of heavier amendment versus Colo, but by the end-of-the year, do you see that being more even or actually even more colo?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah, it's actually -- we're actually seeing in terms of dollars, more -- and this is the US we're talking about specifically, but we're seeing greater contribution from Colos today versus amendments. Historically, it's obviously been amendments predominantly, but that has happened in terms of that shift, at least on a dollar basis, the number of agreements because the amendments are lesser dollars tend to still favor the amendment.

Richard Choe
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

And then you have sprint term this year and some next year, is there any kind of positioning in terms of maybe wanting to get that all into this year at some point or is it still just kind of waiting for it to roll-off?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. Richard, I mean at this stage, most of this year's French urn is stuff that's frankly already happened or just about to happen in some cases, and this is the financial impact of it is what's in our numbers for this year. And when you look at next year, which is the last big year, most of the impact of that will be driven by leases that expired right towards the end of this year or the beginning of next year. And so there's really not that much time to try and pull something in.

And in order to do that, you would expect, I think that T-Mobile would expect some sort of balance in that, but there's something in that for them if they're going to pay it off early. So you know, the quick answer is, I don't think that's likely to occur in terms of accelerating it. But at this stage, we're down to the final years of the material impact. So I think everybody knows what it is at this stage.

Richard Choe
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great. Thank you.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

Okay. Moving on to Michael Rollins from Citigroup.

Michael Rollins
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thanks and good afternoon. Two questions. First one, if I could follow-up on the last one. As the merger churn is picking-up in the US, is there a corresponding increase in fees for carriers leaving the equipment behind? And is that something that could be a significant contributor, whether it's this year or over the next few years as you kind of wrap-up some of this merger churn?

And then, secondly, just maybe taking a step-back on capital allocation, if you can give us an update on how you're thinking about your target debt leverage and the priorities for capital? Thanks.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure. On the Sprint piece, there are fees associated with decommissionings or pay and walk type of fees, but actually a lot of that stuff has been incurred because even though the churn is sort of spread-out over this time period, in a number of cases, the installations have been decommissioned already. In fact, actually, if you look at our -- what the other bucket, if you look at our bridge of revenue and you look at the other bucket domestically, you'll see that it's actually down a bit. And that is one of the contributors is that we've had a decent amount of that kind of contributing to our numbers in the previous years. And so it's a little bit less now. There's still going to be more of that because there certainly are sites where they're still continuing to decommission of the equipment at those sites and we typically do that work, but I don't expect it to be something that would be all that meaningful to the results that we report.

And then, on the target debt level going-forward, you know, you know what our historical target range has been and we've been well below that target range for quite a while now. And I think at this stage, I don't see any reason that we will likely shift from the level that we're at sort of between 6 and 6.5 turns of net-debt to EBITDA leverage. And I say that not because it's our desire to necessarily keep it at that level, it's really about the opportunities for the investment of capital. And I think if we see a meaningful investment opportunities of size and we needed to lever up a little bit to accomplish those investments, then we would be comfortable doing that. But as I sit here today and knowing that we can fully handle the deal that we're closing on later this year, I think it's a reasonable expectation that probably be somewhere below 6.5 times as we get to the end-of-the year. And that's what's implied in our current numbers that we've guided to.

Michael Rollins
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thanks.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

All right. Our next caller, Ric Prentiss from Raymond James.

Ric Prentiss
Analyst at Raymond James

Thanks, everybody. How are you doing?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Hey, good, Rick. How are you?

Ric Prentiss
Analyst at Raymond James

Good, thanks. I want to follow-up on Michael's question a little bit further. Where do you think leverage needs to be investment-grade? You guys don't have a lot of final purchase options. Could you be investment-grade kind of in the 6%, 6.5%, 6, 6.5 times range?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. Well, based on where the agencies have indicated to us and it's actually out there publicly as the breakpoints. I do believe that we could be investment-grade certainly with at least one of the agencies and I think with both at the level that we're at today, it's really more of a commitment as to our intention to stay there or to go lower. And I -- we're frankly not yet ready to make that commitment. But at some point, that will be the natural course for things and it will happen. I just think it's a little premature to do that today. And frankly, I'm not sure that we get much benefit from doing it right now, particularly on a cost of debt basis, it would be very small to give up the flexibility that I think is more valuable right now.

Ric Prentiss
Analyst at Raymond James

Right. Of course, sometimes they let you flex up as long as you commit to bring it back-down. The Milcom transaction, remind us how much terms of leverage that should be putting on as we as we look at closing the deal in September and what it means kind of leverage next year?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. I mean, by itself, it puts on about 0.2 turns of leverage, so very, very small. And obviously, depending on what we're doing in other places, that may or may not even show-up as we get to the end-of-the year. So it -- when you're producing $1.3 billion or $1.4 billion of AFFO, we can absorb actually a lot and not really move our leverage.

Ric Prentiss
Analyst at Raymond James

Yeah. One more kind of strategic question and then one kind of out there question. But when you think about AI, you touched on it in your opening remarks, when and how will AI affect towers? We've seen it obviously affecting data centers, but will AI benefit towers and how so and when?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Well, if I could answer that as explicitly as I'd like to, that would be -- that would be good. You know, it's hard to say for sure, Rick, is the honest answer. We are -- we do believe that there certainly will be a positive impact as we mentioned in the prepared comments, as you see these generative AI functionality embedded into the handsets and that's really because it's a driver of incremental usage and incremental network capacity that we expect will actually be taken-up as a result of those solutions. So it's not that different from other things that have been introduced in the past that have driven greater use of the network. So that broadly is very good for us.

Obviously, there are AI benefits within our own business that we're introducing every day and continue to evaluate here to become more efficient, provide better information to our customers that we think could drive leasing, that kind of thing. But in terms of something more explicit than that. I think there could be, but I think it's a little too early to know for sure.

Ric Prentiss
Analyst at Raymond James

Makes sense. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah, sure.

Operator

All right. Moving on to Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley.

Simon Flannery
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Evening.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Hey, Simon.

Simon Flannery
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

To Millicom, you talked about a September 1 close. Can you just update us on where the deal timelines are? What's the sort of sensitivity is that going to be -- do you have good line-of-sight to that? Could it be earlier, could it be later, might it's closing stages?

And then, Marc, you talked about the Sprint churn. Could you just give us a little bit of update on the international churn '26 and beyond, what you're seeing remaining from and some of the other consolidation? Thanks.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. So on the closing date, we gave you what we consider our best guess at September 1. There's a lot of different factors that are potentially going to contribute to the timing of that. It definitely could be a different time than that. I mean, honestly, it's our desire and frankly, it's desire to close earlier or at least close parts of it earlier. And if we can do that, we will do that because it's additive and we both like to get going here. But there are certain regulatory hurdles that need to be cleared and other diligence items and certain other things that need to get addressed. So we pegged it at September 1 for purposes of issuing the outlook. And obviously, if it closes earlier or parts of it closed earlier, we'll update our outlook as we move through the year if that happens. I don't expect that it would necess -- that it would close later. It's certainly possible, but I think that's unlikely.

And then the international churn, you know, there's a mix of things going on there. I mean, unfortunately, most of the churn that's in our outlook internationally is in Brazil. And I would say, unfortunately, it's a little bit higher than we probably would have thought before, largely built around the OI consolidation, but it's not necessarily just the direct consolidation, it's also all the steps that the carriers are taking are going through that process, the surviving carriers are taking to rationalize their networks and deal with other focus areas. And so there, as you would imagine, trying to be as efficient as they can. And we're trying to help them through that in a way that is balanced for us too, but it is pulling forward, I would say, some term that we probably thought would have been spread-out over a little bit longer period of time.

And then beyond that, you know, it's a lot of different cats and dogs in different markets. The next biggest thing outside of Brazil, honestly, is a few million dollars of churn in Panama associated with the Clara Liberty consolidation. So we have those things that are still going on. But as I think that runs down, we'll see that improve. And actually be good for these markets as it will stabilize the markets.

Simon Flannery
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next caller is Nick Del Deo from MoffettNathanson.

Nick Del Deo
Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Hey, evening, guys. You know, with respect to services, you've got one customer that's historically been much larger than the others. I guess, are you seeing any diversification of services work-in '25 versus '24? Or would you say it's broadly similar?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

I would say, we're seeing increases across-the-board, but that one big customer is increasing quite a bit as well. So I'm not sure that the mix is going to change all that much. We're still pretty heavily concentrated. And a lot of that just is based on agreements that exist with some of the other carriers with turfing vendors and things like that. And we continue to work with them because I think I believe, in my opinion, that they would all agree that when we do the work for them, we do it as well as anybody in the industry.

And so we're seeing more-and-more of a preference to use us, particularly on our own sites. There's a lot of advantages for the carriers. But it has to be profitable work for us too. And so that balance makes it a little bit more challenging. But my -- it is one of our internal goals, Nick, that you're touching on to diversify our revenue base in that business because I think it's important to do and I think it's something we can accomplish.

Nick Del Deo
Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. That's good to hear. Second, unrelated topic, Brendan, you had mentioned a step-up in the rate of new-builds in '25. Can you share anything about the kind of initial development yields that you're expecting with those builds? And should we think of the change in the cadence as basically being attributable to as opposed to other factors?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. I mean, the deal is definitely a big driver of that. It's by far the biggest driver of that. I mean, we've got -- I mentioned in the script that we had approximately 800 new-builds we expect to do this year. That's what's implied in our outlook and in the discretionary capex. Most of that, say, ballpark close to 500, it would be Central America as part of the deal. So that's definitely the biggest driver. But there are other markets as well. Tanzania is another market where we're building a lot of sites. So it's concentrated in certain markets.

But the ones that we're doing are very good. We feel really good about the yields on those day-one. They don't require a ton of lease-up, but I do think there's a lot of good opportunity for lease-up in a number of these situations. So you know, it's a -- it's a positive contributor and I think will help our return on invested capital that we report as we start to get into them and get them done.

Nick Del Deo
Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. Great. Thanks.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

Our next caller is David Barden from Bank of America.

David Barden
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Hey, guys, thanks so much for taking the questions. So Brendan, you know, Brandon Car has been a vocal proponent of kind of changing the BEAD program to incorporate a little bit more flexible technological approaches to achieving some of these broadband goals and fixed wireless access has been one of them. And this has been a question we've been dealing with on the other side of the equation, which is how does it affect the wireline providers? I'm interested to hear your perspective on to the extent that anyone has been phoning in, asking SBA, could you help me figure out a way to address fixed wireless access as a BEAD solution? That'd be one question.

And then, the second question is, another big question that's kind of arisen subsequent to DISH kind of refinancing itself and getting $5 billion in capital. The question was what were they going to do with that money? Were they going to use it to invest in handsets and marketing? Were they going to try to get to their build-out requirements? And obviously, you know that build-out requirement extension that they just got from the FCC is under threat. And I'm interested to know if there's some change in the conversation around how DISH might factor into your thinking in tower demand for the next couple of years? Thank you.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah, okay. Well, there's a lot there, David. On the -- no, no, that's all right. On the BEAD program, I guess the short answer is no. We've not really heard much from folks who are looking to us to try and help them with fixed wireless access as a BEAD solution per se. What we are -- as I think, well, in my opinion, and I think others would agree with this that it was obviously a very fiber oriented program. And I think expanding it out to cover more than just fiber to consider wireless as a solution is a good thing and we would be very supportive of that. So I do think that it could be good if in fact, it goes that direction. But it's it feels a little early-on that. And there's been -- it's pretty far down the road in terms of a lot of the money being out-the-door and what the plans are. So I'm not sure how much of an impact we'll see from that, but I'm -- I have some little bit of -- little glimmer of hope that it is a favorable contributor for us, and we certainly are supportive of that.

On the DISH side, you know, when I think about the impact to us over the coming years, I think I mentioned in response to an earlier question that we don't expect a whole lot of contribution this year. And that's -- that's really because we're just not seeing that much from them. They've been much quieter. I think that they have a lot to do. And when we have conversations with their network folks, it sounds like they have a lot of plans around that. But I think the extra time that they received for these build-outs has given them the sense that they can take a little bit more time and focus on their financial house. I -- if it's under threat and that change, I guess we'll see what that does if that in fact is the case. I'm not sure about that. But at this stage, it's pretty -- it's pretty slow with them. So we'll see and we're hopeful that it will pick-up. We have a very good relationship with them. We have a lot of existing embedded leases. And I think there's a lot that we can do together as soon as they kind of get clarity on their plans over the next couple of years.

David Barden
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

All right. Thanks, Brendan.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

All right. Up next is Ari Klein from BMO Capital Markets.

Ari Klein
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you. And then just going back to the international churn, curious if the level you're expecting in 2025, do you think that that's going to be the peak? And do we need to kind of move past the churn you're seeing to kind of see leasing start to accelerate international -- in international markets or could they kind of be separate from one another?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. I mean, unfortunately, Ari, I don't actually think that it's the peak. I don't think it's necessarily going to be higher, but I do think that next year is likely going to be at a similar level to this year in terms of international churn. But its impact in terms of organic growth overall. Obviously, it weighs on it, but there is a -- the different markets have different dynamics right now going on. I mean, we've got a lot happening in Central America and in Africa, in Tanzania specifically. And I think we will see not only a lot of new-build activity like we're working on, but we will actually see reasonably good lease-up in those markets.

And in many cases, particularly in Central America, we're pretty much through the churn, the consolidation churn. A lot of it has happened at this point. And so we'll start to see that pull-back. It's really Brazil, which is -- we're obviously heavily indexed to Brazil. So as Brazil goes, that kind of is a deciding factor for a lot of these things. And I think Brazil probably has another year beyond this year, at least where things will be a little bit challenging on that front.

Ari Klein
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thanks. And then just maybe on share repurchases, how should we think about that? Are those likely to be on-hold until the Milicon deal is completed or is it kind of independent of that and how you're thinking about it?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. I'd say it's somewhat independent of it. Obviously, we know that we have that commitment that we have approximately $1 billion of capital that we are obligated to pay-out. And as I mentioned earlier, the timing of that hopefully will be earlier than what we put forth. That's what we're shooting for if we can make it happen. And if it is earlier, that means we have to have that ready and available, which we do, but it does influence our thinking a little bit.

However, having said that, we typically have run our share buyback program and I expect it to be the same for the time-being in a somewhat opportunistic manner. And so if we don't see other things going on and we see an opportunity where we think there's a meaningful dislocation that happens that doesn't make any sense to us. We may react more quickly to that.

Ari Klein
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Right. Moving on to Brendan Lynch from Barclays.

Brendan Lynch
Analyst at Barclays

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Another follow-up on the government policy. Can you talk about the potential for more spectrum auctions over the next couple of years? And if you're having any conversations with customers on how that would inform their intentions and how you can support them?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Yeah. So obviously, that's one of the things that's being talked about by the new FCC that we are extremely favorable on and are very supportive of as of course, are the wireless M&Os here in the US. And so I am hopeful that we will actually see an acceleration to improve the likelihood of having more spectrum auctioned off. But having said that, even if that is the case, with the current delay that's taken place and the time it will take to get to that and then ultimately for it to be cleared and available for deployment, you're talking about a number of years off into the future.

And so the conversations that we have with our customers are less about what they'll need to do with potential new spectrum years from now. It's more about how do they optimize and maximize what they have today that they either still have to deploy or that they can maybe redesign a little bit in order to maximize what they're able to produce with the current holdings. So that's the more immediate thing and that's the type of thing that we would discuss rather than around future auctions at this stage.

Brendan Lynch
Analyst at Barclays

Sure. That makes sense. And another issue, you're selling the portfolio in Colombia. Should we expect you to exit additional markets throughout this year or is that process pretty much complete at this point?

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

No, I mean, it's not our intention to necessarily exit additional markets. In fact, as I mentioned, I think in my comments, we much prefer to not do that and to find ways towards improved scale and better positioning with the leading carriers in those markets. So that's what we're focused on. But having said that, in some cases, like we did in Colombia and like we did in the Philippines, if we come to the conclusion that we don't see a reasonable viable path to getting there anytime soon, then for purposes of being focused with our operations and where we are spending our time and energy, we would consider it. But it's not currently something that we have in the hopper.

Brendan Lynch
Analyst at Barclays

Great. Thank you for the color.

Brendan T. Cavanagh
President and Chief Executive Officer at SBA Communications

Sure.

Operator

All right. That was our last caller in the queue. One final reminder for last questions. Dialing pound to will place you in the question queue. All right. Looks like there are no further questions at this time. That concludes the SBA fourth-quarter 2024 results conference. You may now disconnect.

Corporate Executives
  • Mark DeRussy
    Vice President, Finance
  • Brendan T. Cavanagh
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Marc Montagner
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

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