AerCap Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 26, 2025

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to AerCap's Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Financial Results. Today's conference is being recorded and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Joseph McKinley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter twenty twenty four conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Angus Kelly and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Yugas. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward looking statements. Forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

Speaker 1

AerCap undertakes no obligation other than that imposed by laws to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements to reflect future events, information or circumstances that arise after this call. Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated 02/26/2025. A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aircap.com. This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aircap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and will allow time at the end for Q and A.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, I would ask that analysts limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Angus Kelly.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. We are pleased to report another strong year of earnings for AerCap generating GAAP net income of $2,100,000,000 and earnings per share of $10.79 adjusted net income of $2,300,000,000 and adjusted EPS of $12.01 We expect to see a continuation of the trends that we saw last year in 2025. This includes the supportive supply demand dynamic, continued accretive capital deployment opportunities and robust demand for our assets leading to an adjusted 2025 EPS range of $8.5 to $9.5 not including the contribution of gains and sale of assets which historically have been material. As we have discussed in prior quarters, the positive environment for aircraft leasing continues and we are seeing this reflected in the strong operational performance of the business. Last year, we generated $5,400,000,000 of operating cash flow, which of course excludes $651,000,000 of gains on sale.

Speaker 2

During the fourth quarter, we generated a gain on sale margin of 43% or 260% of the associated book equity. We executed eight twelve transactions across our various businesses equivalent to more than two per day. This level of activity gives AerCap unrivaled insights into the global aviation market. This in turn allows for a better understanding of our customers' needs and how to support their growth. Looking ahead, we have $45,000,000,000 of contracted future lease cash flows in place on our existing fleet, over 40% of which will be received in the next three years.

Speaker 2

This gives us tremendous visibility into our future cash flows allowing us to allocate capital effectively and thoughtfully creating continued value for our shareholders. With this in mind, we are pleased to announce a new $1,000,000,000 share repurchase program, our largest single authorization to date. This takes the total amount of buyback spent and authorized in the last two years alone to $5,000,000,000 further underlining the significant value we see in AerCap stock today and our confidence in the outlook for 2025 and beyond. Turning to the market, it is clear that the industry continues to plan for a lower for longer supply environment, evidenced by continued increases in lease rates, lease extension demand and strong gain on sale. 2024 was the third year in a row of increased extension activity reflective of this ongoing demand for aircraft.

Speaker 2

This is also driving strong sales activity resulting in a $260,000,000 gain on sale in Q4, our highest mid single quarter and also a record full year gain on sale of $651,000,000 The largest global aircraft leasing conference was hosted in Dublin last month, attracting thousands of stakeholders to the event. And it was clear from the many conversations we had with airlines, aircraft traders and financiers, the demand for aviation assets continues to grow. As you can see from the slide, we are selling a wide mix of assets to a wide mix of buyers, each with a different focus on asset type, age or counterparty. In the first category, airlines tend to focus on the older part of the curve, typically buying out aircraft at the end of a lease to secure certainty of capacity. Given their knowledge of the aircraft and its maintenance condition, they are well placed to understand the value of the aircraft.

Speaker 2

To generate strong gains in sale with this buyer base reflects well on two things. Firstly, it shows the critical benefits of having in house engine and technical teams who control the lifecycle spend and condition of the aircraft engines translating into higher residual values. Secondly, it points to the premium our assets command in the market over our carrying values. In light of the continued OEM delays and engine reliability challenges, this is a theme we expect to continue into 2025 and beyond. Financial investors on the other hand tend to buy young to midlife aircraft and engines, ideally with long lease terms remaining where predictability of income is highly valuable.

Speaker 2

These buyers were more prevalent before COVID, but we see early signs of strength returning here again based on some of the recent conversations we are having in this space. The other category contains aircraft sold for part outs, finance leases and sales to other leasing companies. The combination of which run the full gamut

Speaker 3

of age and aircraft types.

Speaker 2

In summary, this shows that AerCap's gains on sale are not limited to a select few assets or credits, but broad based across our aircraft, engines and helicopter portfolios. Gains on sale have been a feature of our business for almost twenty years as a public company and reflect the deep embedded value created by the AerCap platform every single day. Turning to capital allocation. We mentioned earlier that we have excellent visibility of future cash flows, which is key to our capital deployment strategy. We will continue to utilize these strong cash flows to return capital to you, our shareholders, while also leaning into today's very strong sales environment.

Speaker 2

In doing this, we will continue to sell our lower priority assets for strong gains on sale and reinvest the proceeds into organic growth and share repurchases resulting in a more efficient, more profitable company. Over the last two years alone, we have invested over $12,000,000,000 into new assets, returned over $4,000,000,000 to shareholders and delevered. This shareholder friendly approach to capital return has not come at the cost of financial flexibility. In fact, quite the opposite as our leverage ratio remains well below our stated targets of 2.7 times to one. And our credit ratings stand at the highest ever level at BBB plus I am sure it's not unique to return significant capital to shareholders, but it is extremely rare that it can be achieved at this scale while de levering the balance sheet and increasing your investment grade credit ratings.

Speaker 2

What should also stand out to investors is the stability and consistency of this approach over many years. On the left hand side of the slide, you'll see our organic investment in the business. This organic growth comes from three sources. One, direct aircraft purchases from the OEMs made in more favorable environments. Two, opportunistic sale leasebacks with new and existing airline customers that needs AerCap's help.

Speaker 2

And three, our recently announced engine deals. On shareholder returns, as we mentioned earlier, today's record $1,000,000,000 share repurchase authorization takes total announcements to $5,000,000,000 in the last two years. In that time, we have deployed $4,000,000,000 and reduced the share count by 25% with more to come from this latest authorization. These returns come from a position of strength built on industry leading cash flows, knowledge and profitability, making them both attractive and sustainable. So as we look back on 2024, this was another great year for AerCap with broad based demand for our aircraft.

Speaker 2

We completed 150 asset purchases, executed just under 500 lease agreements and generated $5,400,000,000 of operating cash flow. In addition, we repurchased 16,800,000.0 shares or $1,500,000,000 reduced our leverage to 2.35 times and were upgraded to BBB plus by both S and P and Moody's. Looking forward to 2025, our confidence in the company's outlook remains strong and we look forward to demonstrating this to you in the quarters and years to come. With that, I'll hand the call over to Pete to review the financials and the outlook for 2025. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks Gus. Good morning everyone. Our GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $671,000,000 or $3.56 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $112,000,000 for the quarter or $0.6 a share. That includes lease premium amortization of $30,000,000 which reduced basic lease rents, maintenance rights amortization of $22,000,000 which reduced maintenance revenue and maintenance rights amortization of $60,000,000 which increased leasing expenses.

Speaker 2

During the fourth quarter, we had $168,000,000 of recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict or $0.89 a share. This represents settlements with certain of the insurers on our CNP insurance policy. The overall tax effect of the purchase accounting adjustments and the net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict was $8,000,000 or $0.04 a share. So taking all of that into account, our adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $624,000,000 or $3.31 per share. I'll briefly go through the main drivers that affected our results for the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

Basic lease rents were $1,619,000,000 dollars an increase from $16.00 $5,000,000 in the third quarter. Basic lease rents reflected $30,000,000 of lease premium amortization expense, which reduces basic lease rents. Lease premium assets are amortized over the remaining term of the lease as a reduction to basic lease rents. Our maintenance revenues for the fourth quarter were $106,000,000 That reflects $22,000,000 in maintenance rights assets that were amortized to maintenance revenue during the quarter. In other words, maintenance revenue would have been $22,000,000 higher or $128,000,000 without this amortization.

Speaker 2

Net gain on sale of assets was a record $260,000,000 for the fourth quarter. We sold 40 of our owned assets during the quarter for total sales revenue of $869,000,000 That resulted in an unlevered gain on sale margin of 43% for the quarter, which is equivalent to a multiple of 2.6 times book value. And that's one of the highest quarterly margins we've ever had. As of December 31, we had $466,000,000 worth of assets held for sale. Other income was $88,000,000 for the quarter, which consisted primarily of interest income.

Speaker 2

Interest expense was $5.00 $5,000,000 for the fourth quarter. Leasing expenses were $214,000,000 for the quarter and that included $60,000,000 of maintenance rights amortization expense. Income tax expense was $93,000,000 which represents an effective tax rate of 12.8% for the fourth quarter. For the full year, our effective tax rate was 14.3%, which includes around 40,000,000 evaluation allowance releases and tax recoveries during the year. I'd also note that 2024 was the first year we were subject to the global minimum tax under Pillar two, which increased our tax rate by 1.9% from what it otherwise would have been.

Speaker 2

On the next slide, you can see a walk of our full year earnings and EPS. And as you can see, it was a very strong year for AerCap. We had approximately $2,100,000,000 of GAAP net income for the year, which included $195,000,000 of net recoveries related to the Ukraine conflict. That resulted in $10.79 of GAAP EPS for the year. After adjusting for the insurance recoveries, as well as for purchase accounting items of $475,000,000 our adjusted net income was approximately $2,300,000,000 for the year and that equates to adjusted EPS of $12.01 per share, which is a record for AerCap.

Speaker 2

As a result for the full year, our GAAP return on equity was 12% and our adjusted ROE was 14%. Our operating cash flow was a record $5,400,000,000 for the year. That doesn't include any proceeds from Russian insurance settlements because those go through investing cash flow and it also doesn't include any gains on sale as those also go through investing cash flow. We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of December 31, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $21,000,000,000 That compares to uses of around $11,000,000,000 resulting in the next twelve months source to usage coverage ratio of around two times.

Speaker 2

And that reflects excess cash coverage of around $10,000,000,000 Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.35:one, which is slightly lower than last quarter. Our operating cash flow was approximately $1,300,000,000 for the fourth quarter. Our secured debt to total assets ratio was 12% at the December, which is the same as last quarter and our average cost of debt was 4.1%. During the fourth quarter, we bought back 3,100,000.0 shares at an average price of $94.74 for a total of $297,000,000 We also paid our third quarterly dividend of $0.25 a share. Our book value per share was $94.57 as of December 31, which is an increase of 13% over the last twelve months.

Speaker 2

And that of course doesn't include the $0.75 a share in dividends that we paid out during the year. So that covers our 2024 performance. Now I'll turn to our guidance for 2025. For 2025, we're projecting adjusted EPS of 8.5 to $9.5 not including any gains on sale. On the next slide, you can see we provided a walk of our EPS from 2024 actuals to what we expect for 2025 to call out some of the major items.

Speaker 2

In 2024, we had gains on sale of $651,000,000 or $2.85 per share after tax. Excluding gains on sale, our adjusted EPS for 2024 was $9.16 In 2024, we had a high level of other income, which was driven in part by high cash balances as well as some one time items. So in 2025, we're expecting other income to be lower by about $0.35 a share. As I mentioned, we recognized around $40,000,000 of discrete tax benefits in 2024, which reduced our effective tax rate for the year. Without these benefits, our effective tax rate would have been around 16%.

Speaker 2

We aren't projecting any tax benefits in 2025, so that's a headwind of around 0.2 a share in 2025 compared to $0.24 Those are the major items to call out. The last column includes everything else, including leasing, maintenance, share repurchases, etcetera. And we expect the net effect of all of these will be about 0.4 positive in 2025. So that takes us to the EPS range of $8.5 to $9.5 for 2025, dollars again not including any gains on sale. On next slide, you can see a breakdown of our projected income statement for 2025 showing the major line items.

Speaker 2

For the full year of 2025, we expect to have lease revenue of around $6,600,000,000 maintenance revenues of around $700,000,000 and other income of around $200,000,000 for total revenue of about $7,500,000,000 We've assumed that we'll have cash CapEx of around $5,600,000,000 for the year and asset sales of around $2,000,000,000 As you know, these figures can vary significantly. CapEx is largely dependent on OEM deliveries and sales volume depends on the demand for assets and the time it takes to close those transactions. We're projecting depreciation and amortization of around $2,700,000,000 for the year and interest expense of around $2,100,000,000 We expect leasing expenses, SG and A and other expenses to total around $1,300,000,000 for the year. On tax, we've assumed an effective tax rate of 16.5%, which as I mentioned assumes no specific tax releases as we had in 2024. And that also reflects the impact of global minimum tax under Pillar two, which results in a top up tax for jurisdictions like Ireland, where the company is paying an effective tax rate of less than 15%.

Speaker 2

In 2025, we expect to recognize earnings around $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 from our equity investments, and that's primarily our engine leasing joint venture FCS, but it also includes some other smaller equity investments. Altogether, that gives us projected GAAP net income of around $1,300,000,000 for the year. After purchase accounting adjustments of around $300,000,000 after tax, we expect to have adjusted net income of around $1,600,000,000 for the year. That gives us an adjusted EPS range of $8.5 to $9.5 for the year, again not including any gains on sale. Overall, AerCap continued to perform very strongly during the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

As we look out into 2025, we continue to see a strong environment for leasing, which you can see from our utilization rate of 99%. It also continues to be a strong environment for aircraft sales and you can see that reflected in the record level of gain on sale in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2024. We're continuing to generate strong cash flows that in turn result in greater profitability and more financial flexibility and we're deploying capital towards attractive aircraft and engine opportunities. We also continue to return capital to shareholders. Over the past two years, we bought back over $4,000,000,000 worth of stock, which is almost 30% of our market cap at the beginning of that period.

Speaker 2

And today, we've announced new share repurchase program of $1,000,000,000 which is our largest program ever. We've also announced today an 8% increase to our quarterly dividend taking it to $0.27 a share. All of these actions reflect our strong confidence in the value of AerCap stock and in the company's outlook for the future. And with that, operator, we can now open up the call for Q and A.

Operator

Thank We will take our first question from Hillary Cacunondo with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 4

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. So you talked about different sets of aircraft buyers in the secondary market, which is very interesting. I just wanted to get your view on what happens to the sales environment when the OEMs start producing aircraft on time, which I understand is probably a couple of years from now. But is it your view that the sales environment will remain robust, but maybe the mix changes to maybe more financial buyers and product buyers buying the aircraft versus the airline buying in the secondary market?

Speaker 4

Is that the right way to think about it? Or do you think the sales environment is that weaker if the supply gets back to normal?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Hilary. Well, first of all, I do believe there'll be a shortage of aircraft for years to come as I have said on several calls and at our Capital Markets Day. So you're right that eventually of course the airframers will start producing more aircraft. I still think that several years away before they get to their targets. But if you go back to our Capital Markets Day, where we highlighted the challenges of the aircraft that are being produced today, that they do not spend as much time in service as their predecessors because they are more fragile, they spend more time in the shop.

Speaker 3

Therefore, I expect to see continued strength out of necessity for used aircraft values well into the future. From our perspective, what you will see though is that our portfolio is 75% new tech at the moment. And I'm sure over the course of the next few years that will get closer and closer to 95%, ninety eight %. Percent. Is that okay?

Speaker 4

Yes, great. Thank you. That's really helpful. And then just a quick question on lease expense. It seems a little bit elevated in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 4

I was wondering if you could just talk about what drove that and if this could be like a new run rate going forward or no?

Speaker 5

Sure, Hillary. So it was slightly higher in the fourth quarter, but it's been running, it's maybe $20,000,000 higher or so than other quarters this year. I think it's a reasonable run right now. I mean, as I've said in the past, leasing expenses moves around depending on the timing of events. So it's hard to read very much into any one quarter, but I think it will probably stay roughly around these levels in 2025.

Speaker 4

Okay. Is it due to like AerCap transitioning costs or just some selling them or anything specific that you could point to?

Speaker 5

It's just a combination of all of the things that go through really. So it's mainly yes, it's the timing of all these events that happen. So that's why it will bounce around from quarter to quarter. But overall, yes, I mean, you can see like I think that I think like 150 a quarter is a reasonable run rate.

Speaker 4

Got it. Great. Thank you so much. Very helpful.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

The next question is from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

Speaker 6

Hello, everybody. So Mark and I have a question on lease extensions. I think it was Slide five in the deck. So of the aircraft that are not being extended, how many are actually transitioning? So, they're at an airline, they are not being parted out, they're not being extended, basically kind of the old fashioned model of dialing around, hey, do a plane?

Speaker 6

And the reason we ask is that the net margin did tick down slightly year on year. We're curious if transitioning aircraft might have been a contributing factor.

Speaker 3

Well, a couple of things. There are very few aircraft that transition and at the moment, I can think of maybe a handful throughout the year. There's a few more we try and pull them out because we can know we can get higher rates elsewhere.

Speaker 6

As

Speaker 3

it relates to net spread though, Jamie, the key there is we do not manage the business to net spread. We manage it to EPS and ROE. And that ROE number was 14% after tax this year, which is industry leading by a country mile. Now I mentioned why we don't manage to net spread. Of course, if all the proceeds I'd taken if I'd never sold those older assets, I'd have higher net spread, I'd have a higher risk business and I'd have lower earnings per share.

Speaker 3

If I did sell those assets and just pay down debt, I'd have higher net spread and lower EPS. So when we every dollar this company generates, we allocate it in the way that drives ROE for the shareholders and EPS. The only line in the P and L that matters to me or the balance sheet anywhere else, I don't care about growth. I don't care about anything except making money for the shareholders at the bottom line. And that's what the only line that really matters to us.

Speaker 6

Understood. And thank you for that. And then second on Russia, given what you've written down and what you've now received, where does that bring us in terms of the percentage of the recovery? Actually, let me put it more precisely, sorry. Of the amount you've recovered, what percent is that of the original book value, not necessarily what you wrote down, but the original book value that you estimate has now been recovered?

Speaker 6

Thanks in advance and I'll see you on the twelfth Gus. Thanks.

Speaker 5

Well, so the write down Jamie was about $2,700,000,000 pretax. That was net of some offsets that we had because we released maintenance. So call that $3,200,000,000 dollars that we had a book value there. So we recovered $1,300,000,000 in 2023 roughly and another $200,000,000 in 2024. So that gives you an idea of where we stand relative to that initial book value.

Speaker 6

That's perfect. Thanks for doing the math for us. Appreciate it. Take care.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Operator

The next question is from Stephen Trent with Citi.

Speaker 7

Thank you and thank you for taking my question. Can you guys hear me?

Speaker 5

Sure.

Speaker 7

Great. Sorry, I was having some trouble with my phone. Thank you very much for taking my question. Just some quick ones for me. The first is when we think about that very attractive BBB credit rating, do you see any benefit from maybe pushing that rating higher in terms of thinking about net spreads?

Speaker 5

Well, Stephen, so as you know, we're BBB plus with two of the rating agencies. We're on positive outlook with Fitch. We'd hope to see that converted to BBB plus with Fitch as well, which would be helpful. And look, I think that this has been a good trajectory for us over the last few years and in recognition of the resilience of the business and the strong performance and the outperformance in terms of cash flows and all of that. So could it go higher?

Speaker 5

It could go higher, but we'll have to see where that goes. I think that net our spreads at the moment, as you know, are at historically tight levels, right? They're around 80 basis points on a five year. So that's very good. How much benefit would we get from getting up to A minus?

Speaker 5

Hard to say, but look certainly we'd welcome higher ratings. That would be a positive.

Speaker 7

Okay, very helpful. And just an industry question for you. And I know this doesn't exactly pertain to you guys, but looking at the uncertainty in The U. S. Today with respect to potential tariffs, are you seeing anything in the market that might suggest sort of U.

Speaker 7

S. Based airlines are pulling back a little bit on sale leaseback transactions just given the having to potentially pay a tariff on whatever they purchase, even if they sell it back to a lesser. Just love your view on that. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Steven. No, we haven't observed any change in behavior from any airline as yet in any part of the world. I think things are far too uncertain to commit to a course of action for anyone at this point in time.

Speaker 7

Makes sense. Thank you very much, Angus.

Speaker 3

Pleasure.

Operator

The next question is from Terry Ma with Barclays.

Speaker 8

Hey, thank you. Good afternoon. So first, I just want to confirm the core EPS guide contemplates the use of the $1,000,000,000 buyback and nothing incremental above that. And then just more broadly, you're well below your leverage target with the potential to go even lower with additional Ukraine recoveries. Can you maybe just talk about how you think about moving back to a more optimal leverage level and over what time period?

Speaker 5

Sure. So thanks, Terry. So on your first question, yes, what that guide is based on is the utilization of our remaining amount under the existing authorization, which is $164,000,000 today and the new program of $1,000,000,000 nothing beyond that. And then look in terms of where we are, so our leverage ratio now is 2.35:one, which is relatively low as you said below target. As things go forward, as the year progresses, I mean, obviously as you've seen, we've deployed lots of capital, we've deployed lots of capital both in terms of returning capital to shareholders.

Speaker 5

And I referenced in my prepared remarks over the last two years, we bought back almost 30% of the market cap. It's hard to find any other company that has done that. But by the same token, we're also looking at opportunities to grow and we've seen good attractive opportunities to do that over the past year, which is where we deployed capital. So we'll just have to wait and see how that happens. But we are deploying it in significant ways.

Speaker 5

It's just this business generates a huge amount of capital, a a huge amount of cash flow as you've seen.

Speaker 8

Got it. And then I may have missed it, but can you maybe just unpack the gain on sale margin of 43% this quarter a bit? And as we kind of look forward to this year, any color you can provide on how we should think about the margin as we kind of factor in the demand you're seeing from the different types of buyers you mentioned and also just the mix of assets you have year marked for sale? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Yes. So the well, we've seen a strong margin pretty much across the board, across all asset types that we've been selling aircraft and engines. So it hasn't really been driven by any one area in particular. As we look out, I don't think the mix is going to change significantly in 2025. Look, obviously the gains on sale were very high this year, 43% in the fourth quarter, '20 '7 percent for the full year.

Speaker 5

That's much higher than normal. I do think that we will probably be above the long term averages, but how far above it's hard to say.

Operator

The next question is from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

Speaker 9

Great, thanks. Pete, it feels like your guidance is pretty conservative and obviously conservative is better than not and it's always been your kind of approach. But can you maybe just unpack the $6,600,000,000 that you've got for 2025 in lease rents, right? I mean, if you look at the fourth quarter, just kind of simply multiply that by 4%, you're at 6.5%. And given the commentary from the last couple of questions and during the call about opportunities out there, whether it's for lease renewals at the same or higher levels, as well as kind of potential sale leasebacks and other things.

Speaker 9

Can you just talk a little bit about what's inherent in that $6,600,000,000

Speaker 5

Sure Moshe. So really what we're expecting is kind of a steady progression of that a gradual increase quarter by quarter of the basically strengths. And that's really due to we are putting leases in place at higher rates now given the good environment, but it takes a while for that to roll through the portfolio. And so I would expect the steady progression to continue throughout next year and beyond really.

Speaker 9

Great. And one of the things that I think Gus alluded to that the planes are spending less time in service and that's kind of been a benefit for your engine leasing business. It's not something that you've talked about much and kind of looking at the joint venture income, I mean, I think you've only got $100,000,000 in 2025. Just talk a little bit about the engine leasing business and your outlook for it in 2025?

Speaker 5

Sure. Well, maybe I'll I can comment on that line item, the guidance and then Gus can talk about generally. So, if you look Moshe in 2024, the net income from equity method investments was $159,000,000 and our guidance was $100,000,000 to $150,000,000 So it is close to that level of $2,024,000,000 dollars The one thing that's worth noting here is that as we've done some of these new engine deals and SCS has done these new engine deals, we've changed the terms of them so that rather than receiving monthly maintenance from CFM, we are receiving full life engines at the end of that lease. So they are shopping the engines and returning them to us in full life condition. We think that's a better economic result, frankly.

Speaker 5

But what it means is you're not recognizing that maintenance revenue during the course of the lease. You've got a better engine at the end of the lease, but it's lower monthly maintenance revenue basically. And that's what explains that line item.

Speaker 3

As you rightly point out, I mean the engine business, these are very desirable assets and it is a unique position that we occupy in the industry.

Speaker 9

Thanks very much.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

The next question is from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for the time. So I know we'll get these figures are going to change once we get your 20F later this morning as you'll have renegotiated some of these already. But as of the 2023 20F, I think you had 131 aircraft between 2025 and 2026 with leases expiring. That's about 13% of your year end 2024 passenger fleet.

Speaker 10

Can you just help us think through what percentage of these are COVID era leases and what the upside to lease rates could be for these aircraft, the COVID ones as they move to new leases at today's rates? Thanks.

Speaker 3

So, Grant, the specific numbers of aircraft, if you just think generally about our fleet, the average lease term is six to seven years. So that's what you have capable of repricing in any given year. And so that's how I would think about it. If you were to look at all the leases to reprice, that's the term it will happen over a seven year period.

Speaker 5

And Katie, maybe it's helpful just to if you look at the COVID era leases, just generally, we expect those to run off pretty much about one sixth a year from now going out until, say 02/1931, '2 thousand and '30 '2. So it takes a while for that to come through, but it will be a tailwind for us going forward.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. And then maybe just another one on the engines. You announced another $2,000,000,000 in engine commitments today. Can you walk us through what is driving the incremental investments in engines? Of course, the gap of supply and demand in that market is well documented.

Speaker 10

So is it that the economics are better on engines and aircraft? Or is it just like the backlog for aircraft is too long and today's pricing on buying new engines make more sense than aircraft from a return on capital standpoint? Just any thoughts on the comparison of the economics between engine and aircraft and why the incremental dollars are going to engines today would be very helpful.

Speaker 3

Sure. Well, I think, Katie, you've got to look at our position in the engine business as a partner to the OEMs providing part of the after sales product that the engine OEM gives to its customers. So in many respects, the engine leasing businesses that we have, one is SCS, one is in house, is a logistics business where you are moving vast numbers of engines every week around the world at the instruction of the OEM. So it's a different type of business to leasing, it's a different payment structure and it is a position where we have unique infrastructure that's been built up over candidly thirty years since that business began to have the infrastructure around the world to rapidly move engines from if we get a call on Friday and we're told by the OEM, you need to take one engine back from New York, another one has to get to Tokyo, One more has to get to Saigon, take one back from Delhi. That's what that business does.

Speaker 3

So it's a slightly different type of business, significantly different business from a straightforward financing business. And so our ability there is unique and we add value to the OEMs after sale service. So it's a very different type of business. And when you get the opportunity to grow that, that's where we want to grow.

Speaker 10

Great. And maybe I could sneak one more quick follow-up to an earlier question in, a modeling one. Pete, am I right to assume that the $8.5 EPS does not include any buybacks? Just maybe this math is too simple, but dividing $1,600,000,000 in net income by $8.5 gets you to your 4Q share count. So any help there?

Speaker 10

And then just on the repurchase authorization more generally, it's your largest ever announced. Should we think of that as a comment on buyback pacing or what else drove the larger announcement? Thanks so much for all the time.

Speaker 5

Sure. Well, I would just think of it as kind of at the midpoint of that range that's assuming that we're fully deploying that the full authorization. So obviously one way to think about the low end is we're not deploying it fully or we just have more other contingencies in there, right. So that's it's really just a range built around that midpoint is probably the best way to think about it from a modeling standpoint. And then in terms of the pace of buybacks as I kind of referenced before, look, this is we're only assuming that for now, but if we can outperform these projections, if we get more excess capital coming in, then we'll have to figure out what to do with that.

Speaker 5

And certainly the return of capital to shareholders has been one of the key ways we've done that. So I think it's reasonable to assume that we would continue, but obviously we look at all opportunities that are available.

Speaker 10

Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Kelly, at this time, I'll turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Thank you, operator. And thank you everyone for joining us for our full year earnings call and we look forward to talking to you in the coming months. Thanks very much.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
AerCap Q4 2024
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