Ardagh Metal Packaging Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 27, 2025

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Results Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and welcome everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer and Stephane Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardamentalpackaging.com.

Speaker 1

Remarks today will include certain forward looking statements and include use of non IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially with such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Stephen. So 2024 represented a successful year for our business as we delivered a double digit adjusted EBITDA increase underpinned by 3% growth in global volumes. Our growth drove improved capacity utilization and fixed cost recovery, while the business achieved stronger input cost recovery than anticipated and delivered further operational cost improvements. Europe's adjusted EBITDA performance was consistently strong, A and P demonstrating good volume growth as the industry recovered from customer destocking in the prior year. Our performance in The Americas was resilient with a higher adjusted EBITDA despite temporary customer filling location issues in Brazil and softness in the energy category in North America.

Speaker 2

Our actions on liquidity and strong adjusted EBITDA generation resulted in A and P ending the year with nearly $1,000,000,000 of liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% versus the prior year to 164,000,000 Our performance was positively impacted by higher than forecast sales volumes and production in Europe with a particularly strong end to the quarter. Americas performance was broadly in line with our expectations, supported by an encouraging improvement in monthly volumes through the quarter in Brazil and strong operating cost performance in North America. Across our global footprint, the beverage count continues to gain share in our customers' packaging mix. While we're still in a challenging consumer environment, the key advantages support our expectation for industry shipments growth into 2025 and we are encouraged by our start to the year.

Speaker 2

We're confident that we can drive further growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2025 through increased shipments and further improvements to capacity utilization as well as operational improvements, all of which more than offset some inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe. We also made strong progress towards our sustainability agenda in the year, including the publication of our first roadmap report highlighting how our Scope three emissions, which represent the majority of A and P's overall greenhouse gas emissions fell below the 2,030 target level in 2023, reflecting the successful implementation of our strategy and the overall industry's strong progress on decarbonization. We signed agreements for a solar project in Germany and a virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal, both of which significantly advanced our progress towards our renewable electricity targets. And finally, we were delighted to report a reduction in both our overall total recordable incident rate and accident severity rates in 2024, something that is critical for us. I turn now to AMP's fourth quarter results by segment.

Speaker 2

In Europe, revenue increased by 27% to $552,000,000 or 22% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2023, principally due to favorable volume mix effects in the past year of higher input cost to customers. Shipments grew by a strong 8% for the quarter ahead of expectations with a particularly strong end to the quarter. For the year as a whole, shipments grew by over 4%, which represents an encouraging return to growth following customer destocking in the second half of twenty twenty three. Growth in the year was broad based both in category and by geography. Customers continue to prioritize beverage can in their packaging mix, reflecting both the canons' competitiveness and its sustainability advantages.

Speaker 2

We expect this to continue as evidenced by customers' own investments and Europe's various sustainability regulations. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56,000,000 or by 70% on a constant currency basis due to positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery. Our strong performance in 2024 and a positive early start to the year gives us confidence to project shipments growth of 3% to 4% for 2025. Capacity remains tight in the region, but the continued ramp up of our more recently installed capacity to support this growth. Turning to The Americas, revenue in the fourth quarter decreased by 7% to $653,000,000 which reflected unfavorable volume mix effects partly offset by the pass through of higher input cost to customers.

Speaker 2

Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by 8% to $108,000,000 due to lower volumes, principally due to the prior mentioned customer mix issue in Brazil and the softness in the North America energy category, partly offset by lower operating costs. In North America, shipments declined by 2% for the quarter and grew by over 2% for the year. Fourth quarter decline in shipments was in line with our expectations and reflected temporary softness in the energy category as well as a strong prior year comparable. In both the fourth quarter and across the year, we saw good growth in both carbonated soft drinks and sparkling waters, which combined represent circa 60% of our portfolio, as well as growth arising from share gains in mass beer, which represents only a small percentage of our North America portfolio. Our diverse portfolio in North America is heavily skewed towards faster growing non alcoholic categories.

Speaker 2

Customer innovation continues to favor the beverage can and the can continues to take share of the overall packaging mix. We've also seen some signs of stability in the energy category, which gives us confidence that our shipments can grow at least by low single digits in 2025. In Brazil, Fourth Quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 15%, which primarily reflected a specific customer mix filling location issue. We were encouraged by the improvement in monthly volumes towards the end of the quarter. And we would note that shipments excluding this customer grew by 7%.

Speaker 2

Full year shipments were similarly affected by the specific customer issue decreasing by 5%. The Brazilian beverage can industry also experienced lower growth in Q4, though with some improvements in December. As a result, the full year growth percentage dropped into the mid to high single digit range after the double digit growth in the first part of the year. Balancing our overall positive outlook for the market and the broad strength of our customer portfolio with some appropriate caution after the events of the second half of twenty twenty four, we're confident in at least a low single digit percentage growth for our Brazilian business in 2025. And therefore, between North America and Brazil, we also expect shipments growth in The Americas of at least a low single digit percentage in 2025.

Speaker 2

I'll hand over to Stefan to talk you through some remarks on our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Oli, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the year with a robust liquidity position of close to $1,000,000,000 in line with our expectation that includes a seasonal working capital inflow in the fourth quarter. Net leverage at year end stood at 4.9 net debt over adjusted EBITDA, which represents a meaningful reduction compared to the prior year of 5.5 times. Our liquidity position benefited from the signing of an unron Brazilian credit facility in Q4 for around $80,000,000 We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near term bond maturities. As we have previously indicated, AMP's capital structure is structurally separate from Alagou.

Speaker 3

AMP generated an adjusted free cash flow of $2.00 $4,000,000 in 2024 compared to $260,000,000 in the prior year. The modest decrease was mainly driven by lower working capital inflow, which was partly offset by a significant reduction in our growth investment CapEx. We expect a small outflow in working capital for the financial year 2025. Our growth investments in 2024 reduced to $68,000,000 and on the basis of current investment plans, we expect this to reduce slightly in 2025 to approximately $40,000,000 In terms of other cash flow items, we broadly expect the following for 2025: Cash interest to increase to just over $200,000,000 lease principal repayments of approximately $105,000,000 CapEx to increase to close to $50,000,000 given that previously available tax losses have been utilized and we expect fewer tax rate being in 2025. Maintenance CapEx of around $135,000,000 and small exceptional cash outflows in the order of high single digit million.

Speaker 3

We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.1 per share to be paid later in March, in line with guidance and supported by our robust closing liquidity position. There's no change to our capital allocation policy. With that, I'll hand it back to Oli.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Stefan. So just recapping on our performance and key messages before the Q and A. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter of 11% was ahead of expectations. This was driven by a strong performance in Europe and that was a consistent feature through the year. Full year adjusted DARA of $672,000,000 was strongly ahead of our initially projected $630,000,000 to $660,000,000 range and this was despite softness in the North American energy category and our customer mix filling location issue in Brazil, both of which have shown recent improvement.

Speaker 2

And our actions on liquidity and strong cash flow performance resulted in a robust year end liquidity position of nearly $1,000,000,000 Our current view of the market leads us to project global shipment growth for AMP in 2025 in a range of 2% to 3% and full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675,000,000 to $695,000,000 Our EBITDA guidance is supported by higher shipments and improved fixed cost absorption, partly offset by some inflationary pressures in Europe and currency headwinds. Based on prevailing rates, FX represents a circa $9,000,000 headwind versus the prior year. In terms of guidance for the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between $140,000,000 and $145,000,000 ahead of the prior year of $132,000,000 on a constant currency basis. So having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed with any questions.

Operator

Our first question comes from Stefan Dias with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So maybe my first one is on tariffs. So obviously, LME and the associated premium is a pass through for you all. But can you provide additional details on how you're thinking about the potential implications on demand?

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. Hi, Stefan. So we're very consistent with the other commentary that you've seen in the market in the last week or two. So the first thing to say I think is that we see a relatively small impact on the total retail price of the can, certainly less than $0.01 And therefore, that's if it's all passed on to the consumer, which given the amount of inflation we've seen in the in can pricing in The U.

Speaker 2

S. In the last few years is a relatively small number. We do see that in 2025, a lot of this should have been hedged and therefore there should be less impact in 2025. And as you say from our perspective, it's pretty much a pass through in any case. So in terms of our numbers, it's not touching them.

Speaker 2

So I've seen commentary saying maybe there's some indirect impact on demand. I guess that could be true, but I have to admit from our perspective, we regard that as a pretty marginal impact.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thanks for the color. And then maybe if you could dig into your Americas results a little bit. Obviously, you called out the customer specific headwind in Brazil and some energy weakness in North America. And maybe how are those headwinds sort of shaping out in the quarter so far in 2025?

Speaker 4

And do you expect those headwinds to resolve quickly here in 2025 as well? Thank

Speaker 2

you. No, yes. Good question. So look, I think on the build side, we mentioned it in the remarks but we already saw improvement in Q4. So in December, we're already good at saw a good recovery in those volumes and that recovery has persisted into January and February.

Speaker 2

So I think we're very encouraged by the way that situation has resolved at the moment and would hope that would continue through this year. And then similarly on the energy category in North America, there was clearly improvement towards the end of the year. I think we suffered a bit more than the total market in our mix from what we can see because actually we could see some improvement on the retail data on the energy category already in Q4. And we do see that in our numbers as we go into Q1 that there is recovery in the energy category. So I think we're hopeful for 2025 that both those issues have worked their way through.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Devin.

Operator

And our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi, good morning guys. I wanted to ask on your forecast around growth. I think when you're talking about The U. S.

Speaker 5

Specifically, you said low single digit percent, but you said you could potentially I think it's a minimum of low single digit percent, sorry. So curious if there's areas where you had more optimism or visibility now, or if that was maybe I'm reading into that too much?

Speaker 2

No, I don't think you're reading too much. I mean, I think that this energy category piece is a key part. So obviously, we're feeling positive about that with what we're seeing at the beginning of the year. I think we're seeing strength in other parts of the portfolio, carbonated soft drinks, alcoholic cocktails. So we still remain positive about the North American beverage can market.

Speaker 2

And I think if you go back five years and you look at average growth, it's in that 2% range on average. Obviously, it went up a lot then bumped along a bit as we'd sort of overgrown in the first part of that period, but we didn't lose that growth. And the drivers of that growth that we saw from 2018, '20 '19 onwards, which is the sustainability piece with some reduction in the focus on plastics and the innovation that's still in place. And although there's a little bit of commentary around now with tariffs and other market remarks about plastics, we think that there's still a drive towards not over investing and over prioritizing plastics relative to cans. And that's all we need because when the American, North American can market was flat,

Speaker 1

it was

Speaker 2

because PET was growing at the expense of cans by 3% a year we were down. That's no longer true. And we see that actually again CSD is in positive growth at the beginning of this year. So I think a low single digits for the market is a very realistic number. We think we've got aspects of our portfolio that mean we could be a tick ahead of that, but we're not calling that by a huge amount, but we're certainly positive about North America for this year.

Speaker 5

Thanks. And somewhat related, I guess, on the energy category specifically, there's been some recent M and A in this space. And I don't know if you could just characterize, are some of those changes good or bad for you? Does that increase your share with some existing customers and pull volumes in? Or is there a risk of some diversification from that?

Speaker 2

Yes, we don't see any risk. They're both good market players. We obviously have relationships with many people in the energy space. It's a strong space for us. So we don't see any risk to us from that nor do we see any particular upside from it at this point.

Speaker 2

We don't know. But so we yes, it looks like a good deal, both strong brands and I'm sure they'll do very well.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

And our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Looking at your 2025 outlook, assuming you achieve your volume growth targets, is it possible to say kind of where that would leave your utilization rates in North America and Europe? And then maybe more broadly, if you could comment on sort of how industry supply demand sort of feels in those two regions, if it is tight, loose, balanced, tight sort of characterize it?

Speaker 2

Sure. I understand. So, yes, North America, I think we still have some fairly permanently contained capacity in North America. So I think we'll be running in the mid-90s. It feels pretty tight at the moment to be honest.

Speaker 2

And I think the market overall is relatively balanced with the sorts of actions that we're taking also being taken by other market participants. So I think the industry probably is in the low 90s relatively naturally and then into the mid and even high 90s with those types of curtailment. And as I said at the minute, for us, the market feels quite tight. I think if we look at commercial activity, there's clearly capacity around, but we're not seeing anything that concerns us too much. So I think North America in a regional place.

Speaker 2

And Europe feels pretty tight as well and did all through last year, particularly continent until I think there's more capacity in The UK. But on the Continent through the whole year, we had regional shortages. We had shortages on certain sizes, particularly specialty. And we don't see that changing much into this year because we've seen other players we're ramped we're all ramping some of the legacy capacity that we've already put in, but we're not seeing particularly new capacity coming to market. So apart from those ramp ups.

Speaker 2

So with the growth that we're seeing and again the first two months have been strong in Europe, we think that that market is going to feel pretty tight through the year. And Brazil, yes, I think there's capacity around again it's being curtailed pretty strongly in certain places including by us in the Northeast. And with that, I think the market's relatively balanced, sort of probably in the 90% area. And again, we actually had shortages last year in certain locations and sizes because Brazil is such a big country, you can get that kind of effect. So overall, if we look across our business, it feels like all three markets are in a decent place.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just on Europe, I'm curious on glass to metal substitution, given the strength that you and others have had in Europe. Is that something that is accelerating? Are there specific product categories or geographies where you're really seeing a shift into cans?

Speaker 6

And is it, I don't know, cost of living crisis or maybe change in consumer taste? I'm just wondering if that's really changed or accelerated or there's anything you kind of pinpoint on glass to metal substitution in Europe specifically?

Speaker 2

Sure. Look, I think there's a long term glass to metal substitution in Europe as we've seen two way bottle systems declining and one way packaging increasing and the can taking share. So if you look at the growth in Germany after the can was reduced to very low share in the early 90s and 2000s, that recovery is significantly about glass substitution as well as plastic substitution. And then I think the piece that's given that some extra impetus in the last couple of years is the price of energy, obviously much more significantly in glass than in metal. And so that has meant some competitive differential between the two substrates.

Speaker 2

And that was mitigating, I think, in the second half of last year, but now energy prices are strengthening slightly, Not a huge amount, but they've not continued to come down in the last few months. And so I think the cash does continue to maintain some competitiveness advantage off the back of that. And actually, if you look at our the way our PPI rates are running in Europe, which are negative, so pass through on the can is really low at the moment in terms of price pass through to customers. The can is remaining very competitive in the mix, I think. So that with the sustainability advantages, there's a very clear roadmap for the can to decarbonize, which get much higher than other substrates.

Speaker 2

I think that's driving the Pacnick share that the gains that we're seeing and that was very consistent through the year and we would anticipate that continuing through 2025 and beyond.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Anthony.

Operator

And our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, so maybe I'll ask about North American demand. Maybe you can just run through some of the categories. We've obviously seen some weakness in beer.

Speaker 7

Do you expect that to persist and maybe potentially even get worse in the threat of Mexican tariffs? And then what about energy and nonalcoholic as you see it evolving over the next year? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. So I think I mentioned that I think carbonated soft drinks have started the year strong. We do anticipate growth like we saw last year. And if you look at the Nielsen data into the back end of the year, you certainly saw some strengthening carbonated soft drink growth in cans. And that seems to be the way the year has started out.

Speaker 2

So we feel positive about that. LNG, I touched on, I think there will be a recovery this year relative to last year, which is in a way the category took a bit of a breath last year. There had been a lot of innovation, twenty one to twenty three alcohol innovation, other products, coffee based replacements. So I think that '24 was sort of the year when some of that growth came off after some strong years, but '25, I think market participants have got that back in order and will be driving growth. And some of that destocking we saw also as they moved into different distribution systems is also finished.

Speaker 2

So we'd be feeling good about the energy category for this year. I talked about how I call it cocktails. I think that's a good space. There's definitely growth in there and we're seeing that in our portfolio. And then, yes, mass beer, I think, continues to be somewhat challenged, but actually Mexican tariffs depending if they're on field goods could be a positive for domestic production and domestic supply.

Speaker 2

But it's a relatively small part of our portfolio. It's clearly the weaker part if you look at the market data for last year, that clearly is the weaker part of the portfolio. And then another one I'd pull out is sparkling waters had a very strong year last year. We were strong with them and again that looks like that's persisting into 2025.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks for that. And then just maybe I can ask about free cash flow and just maybe you can give me a walk from $6.85 EBITDA and some of the offsets to that, whether it be CapEx and working capital, cash tax and so on? And then so how much you expect for free cash flow in 2025? And then how you expect to use that?

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Okay. So basically, we printed adjusted free cash flow of $2.00 $4,000,000 sort of starting sort of with the EBITDA of $672,000,000 We had a small inflow in terms of working capital of around 40 spend around 111 on maintenance CapEx and then lease repayments of 97 and then we had exceptional restructuring cost of 23. And then we get further down into the capital structure, we I'm talking '24 now, we had 189 of interest paid and 28 cash taxes. So how does this compare now to our 2025 number? So basically, I gave a little bit of guidance on what to expect.

Speaker 3

I mean, you've seen our guidance range in terms of EBITDA 6.75% to 6.95%. So the key changes probably in terms of the cash flow items are on the working capital. We expect a small outflow in 2025. In terms of maintenance CapEx, we expect to invest more. Some of it is clearly driving productivity.

Speaker 3

Some of that is investments in quality and also sustainability. So we expect around $100,000,000 to $130,000,000 ish. And then in terms of growth CapEx, we spent $68,000,000 in 2024. This will be reduced to around a $50,000,000 50 million dollars level. Tax will go up a little bit to $50,000,000 as a result of NOLs having been used.

Speaker 3

Then also the cash interest will go up to $2.00 $5,000,000 as a result of new facilities sort of we entered into last year. And then also the lease repayments will go up a little bit to $2.00 $5,000,000 given that the new leases are sort of reaching their full run rate. We expect very little exceptional as we've been through our restructuring sort of shutdown on some of the steel lines and facilities. So net net, sort of as you do the math, it will be a slight reduction of free cash flow in the New Year. And in terms of spending, I mean, the capital allocation policy and the dividend policy of the company has not changed.

Speaker 3

So that will be consistent with what you've seen in 2024 as per our expectation.

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Operator

And our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Speaker 8

Hi, Ali, Steven. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 8

I wanted to ask, there's been some question around, you talked about tariffs, but potential for the new administration to look at reformulation, specifically in carbonated soft drinks. And we've done a reasonable amount of work on this. I'm just curious, if there's been any early dialogue with customers. I suspect I know what their view is on this, but just how that could play out in terms of cost to the customer or anything that you've come across so far?

Speaker 2

Yes, really not actually. As I said, I think most of the dialogue is about making sure they're getting supply because we're seeing growth in certainly we're seeing both growth in Europe and North America on the city side, particularly in the beginning of the year actually. It was strong all year through North America, had some strengths and weaknesses in the portfolio in Europe, but in general, the category seems in very good health in cans and that does seem to be continuing. And actually the same is true for Brazil even though we're not participating. So yes, look, it's a hard one, isn't it, to call what's going to happen at the minute.

Speaker 2

But I'd just say our customers have been very agile and effective in the past at managing different trends and regulations and health concerns. And they're very big and highly professional companies that you'd expect to work through these sorts of issues. But yes, no real dialogue with us, honest.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then I wanted to I think it's on Slide 17, in the guidance kind of bullets, you talked about PPI headwinds and then higher metal conversion costs, which I don't think we've heard much on that maybe in 2021 in terms of conversion costs. I'm assuming the PPI commentary was mostly isolated to North America, if you can confirm that, maybe quantify it for us if you're willing. And then the conversion costs in Europe, is that something that's what's driving that, I guess, number one? And then number two, could that persist in the '26, '20 '7 or is that isolated to '25?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, actually, for us, the PPI headwinds more located in Europe. I saw our peers talking about North America. But actually, we have negative PPI in Europe at the moment. And I think, again, our peers have talked about this, but some of our costs never go negative, particularly labor.

Speaker 2

So we have when we get into negative PPI, though we have contract structure to try and avoid this, we do get some drag on our pass throughs. And then actually the aluminum conversion cost is also specifically European issue where the market for coils is shorter in Europe, particularly domestic supply is shorter and people have been prioritizing that a bit with everything going on in the world. So we're definitely seeing those headwinds more in Europe than in North America, where we have actually transferred our pass through mechanisms to include much more of a labor mechanism and tend to get better pass through. We have some headwind in North America, which is just we have talked about, I think, the inevitable reduction in some of the specialty regions that had grown up during COVID times. So but it's not on the cost side and it's not on the PPI side.

Speaker 2

So yes, I think that's the shape of it. And I think this aluminum conversion piece, so this is certainly the peak of the issue. It is also slightly related to the energy costs due in Europe that energy costs increasing is coming through a little bit and the metal having been shielded a little bit by hedges on their side in the last couple of years. So it's also a lag effect on some of those costs coming through. But it is a specifically European issue.

Speaker 2

We've got good capacity coming through in North America on rolling mills, which will be very positive for the industry. We're not really seeing these issues in Brazil. We think the European issue mitigates over the next few years.

Speaker 8

Understood. Okay. And last one real quick, just to piggyback on the cash flow and Arun's question. I guess to put some numbers to it, it looks like free cash flow, something in the $130,000,000 to $140,000,000 range. And then we've got to take off there the dividends that you're paying out.

Speaker 8

So leverage for 2025 at the midpoint of $685,000,000 of EBITDA is maybe a tickle down to $4,800,000 give or take. Is that what you guys are thinking about internally?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that broadly, I think it's all in the ballpark. I think we would expect leverage to be pretty steady relative to what we printed in for this year end of 2024.

Operator

Great. Thank you

Speaker 2

guys. Thanks Gabe.

Operator

And our next question comes from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 8

Good morning.

Speaker 9

First question, I want good morning. I just want to talk about the earnings outlook. As you kind of talk through with Gabe, two percent to 3% volume growth and the EBITDA growth of $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 at the midpoint, I would have thought there's a bit higher of incremental margin you would have gotten on that volume. It seems like you have some headwinds you talked about. Can you just help us better understand the moving pieces, like how we should think about the actual benefit from the volume growth and how that's being offset in your guidance?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I think without getting exact numbers that the piece we talked about are the headwinds. So the volume growth of 2% to 3% would translate late through reasonably normally. And then we have particularly the aluminum conversion costs and the PPI headwinds in Europe, the FX headwind that we talked about on a reported basis and some specialty pricing pressures in North America, which again, I don't think they're broad based, they're just some specific situations as we come out of the COVID period. So those are the headwinds, which mean that as you say, we're not getting a full translation of the 2% to 3%.

Speaker 2

On the other hand, we do have some significant operational cost savings as well. We're always working to improve efficiency at the plant level. We're always working on input cost savings. We're always working on SG and A efficiency. So they are also offsetting some of those headwinds.

Speaker 9

Got it. Thank you, Ali. And then for a follow-up, just a question on the cash flow. EBITDA is up this year, but as you mentioned, free cash flow is down a bit. It seems like part of it is higher financing related costs, part of it is higher maintenance.

Speaker 9

I appreciate it's early to think beyond $25,000,000 but just will $2,025,000,000 dollars be the peak in cash use items? I guess what I'm trying to get at is when can we start generating cash above the dividend here?

Speaker 3

Yes, I think as you say, it's probably a little bit early to talk about that. I mean given that we are focusing here on 2025, I think some of the let's say of the bigger needle movers, friends, when we talk about the gross CapEx, I think we are probably behind the big face of expansion there and sort of the $50,000,000 for this year, sort of $50,000,000 to $60,000,000 going forward. That's probably not a bad number. But I think sort of overall, I think a lot of it is really depending on the EBITDA growth, I think, beyond sort of 2025. I think that will drive a lot of the cash flow profile.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

And our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Speaker 8

Hey guys, thanks for taking the follow-up. And I apologize, my phone kind of cut out for a second when you're talking about Europe. That segment was decently ahead of our model. I think you talked about shipping incremental ends maybe closer to the end of the year or something like that. But just A to confirm and then I guess maybe looking at prior Q4s, you're relatively consistent with what you were in 2021.

Speaker 8

I'm just trying to understand like the improved overhead absorption in the fourth quarter, how much that played into the quarter? And then maybe is there any it sounds like the strength kind of persisted in the Q1, so that sounds like the answer is no, but maybe order ahead of anticipated price increases on the aluminum side or this can conversion issue that your customers had sniffed out?

Speaker 2

Yes. So look, I think on Europe, there was no overselling events. If anything, the opposite, we were quite short due to some operational issues on end. So that was a straight typical can number, the 8% growth. Obviously, it's true that Q4 twenty twenty three was pretty soft because of the big destocking.

Speaker 2

But that all just played through that into higher production, better utilization, as you say, better fixed cost recovery. So I think everything just came together very nicely in Q4. And particularly into the year end, we were strong right through to the end of the year. And then I wasn't sure there's a question about the fixed cost recovery. Obviously, generally across the company, we grew 3% last year.

Speaker 2

We did improve our fixed cost recovery with the capacity that we put in place. So that was definitely true. And then in terms of the start to the year, it's not that customers are particularly talking to us about any particular issue, but we're just finding that demand is looking pretty good, particularly Europe, North America, probably less so Brazil. I think Brazil, the summer doesn't look like it will be amazing. Q4 actually went into negative growth, as I mentioned in the remarks, in the market after a super strong first part of the year.

Speaker 2

And it still looks a bit bumpy. I think the consumer environment is weak. Obviously strong dollar is never good for Brazil. So look, we still positive about Brazil growth. We think 3% to 5% is not impossible for the year at all, but it's going to come more second half weighted by the look of it.

Speaker 2

So, no, I think it's more that Europe, North America customers still seem to be leaning into the can for all the reasons we've talked about sustainability, competitiveness. And as I say, we can sort of point out that the PPI headwind is a slight drag on our results. But from a market point of view, it obviously makes the can very competitive for our customers. So it does help drive volume. So, yes, as we look at it sitting here today, we'd be hopeful of a good year on the volume front.

Speaker 8

Yes. No, understood. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks Gabe.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's question and answer session. I'll turn the call back to Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Lisa, and thanks everyone for joining. So I think just summarizing, obviously, we had a good Q4. It was ahead of expectations, particularly led by Europe. We grew across the year by 3%. And we do see the beverage can taking share across our markets and that gives us confidence in further growth into 2025 and further growth in adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 2

So we look forward to talking to you all again at our Q1 results. Thanks very much.

Operator

And that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Ardagh Metal Packaging Q4 2024
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