LON:DRX Drax Group H2 2024 Earnings Report GBX 594.50 -3.00 (-0.50%) As of 03:32 AM Eastern Earnings HistoryForecast Drax Group EPS ResultsActual EPSGBX 128.40Consensus EPS N/ABeat/MissN/AOne Year Ago EPSN/ADrax Group Revenue ResultsActual RevenueN/AExpected RevenueN/ABeat/MissN/AYoY Revenue GrowthN/ADrax Group Announcement DetailsQuarterH2 2024Date2/27/2025TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateThursday, February 27, 2025Conference Call Time4:00AM ETConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckInterim ReportEarnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Drax Group H2 2024 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 27, 2025 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00I will now hand over to Will Gardiner, CEO. Please go ahead, sir. Speaker 100:00:06Thank you and good morning everyone and thank you all for joining the call. I'm going to provide a short introduction and overview and then I'll hand over to Andy who will take you through the numbers and some of the operating points And then I'll come back to talk about some of our investment opportunities and more about capital allocation and we'll finish up the questions. Now on page three. You're all familiar with our purpose which is to enable a zero carbon, lower cost energy future. I'll start with that as I always do as it guides fundamentally everything that we do. Speaker 100:00:38Our strategy and business model are designed to deliver attractive returns for shareholders while realizing that purpose. We We have a strong core cash generated business that has a track record of achieving those joint objectives. And looking to the future, we have opportunities to invest in that core business to enhance shareholder returns as well as deliver positive outcomes for climate, nature and people. And critically, our people are at the heart of Drax where I want everyone to feel a valued member on a winning team with a worthwhile mission. Returning to Page four, we had a strong year. Speaker 100:01:19Good safety performance is critical in its own right and also underpins good operating and financial performance. So I was pleased that our total recordable injury rates reduced in 2024 from zero point three eight in '23 to zero point two four. We produced 25% more power than we did in 2023, which combined with a strong improvement in pellet production has driven a 5% increase in adjusted EBITDA. We significantly strengthened our balance sheet, adding $700,000,000 of new debt that matures in 2027 and beyond at attractive rates, which reflects the market's confidence in our long term business. We use those proceeds to repay about $900,000,000 of shorter dated facilities. Speaker 100:02:07We're committed to shareholder return and we're delivering those through the disciplined application of our capital allocation policy. We're announcing today a 12.68% increase in our dividends per share and we continue with a CHF 300,000,000 share buyback, which reflects our belief in the value we see in the business. The recent CFD agreement for the Drax power station is a good deal for The U. K. And I also think it's a good deal for us. Speaker 100:02:35And importantly, it reflects a significant inflection point for our company. So taken together with FlexGen and pellet production, we're today announcing an upgraded target for recurring adjusted EBITDA of GBP 600,000,000 to GBP 700,000,000 from these three businesses post 2027, which reflects our increased confidence in earnings visibility after 2027. And we also remain excited about the opportunities for long term growth, which were aligned with the energy transition and security of supply. And we will continue to commit appropriate development expenditure to those opportunities. And that expenditure is additional or outside that post-twenty twenty seven target for FlexGen, pellet production and biomass generation, which I just mentioned. Speaker 100:03:24The bottom line though is I wanna emphasize our capital allocation policy. We're committed to attractive returns to shareholders and we will continue to deliver those. Turning to Page five. Last year, we began to talk about our business differently and I want to reiterate that story. Flexible Generation and Energy Solutions is doing well and is already at the target level of GBP $250,000,000 of EBITDA on a pro form a basis. Speaker 100:03:51In Energy Solutions earlier this month, we agreed the sale of all of the residual SME meters, which will mean that that business will be based on I and C renewable and EV solutions. This has greatly simplified that business. The business is doing very well with good performance in I and C and we have learned important lessons from that simplification process. Our pellet production business has had a great year and we have confidence in the future, but but recognize we have work to do to deliver that target. The CFD bridge agreement for Drax Power Station gives us confidence that we can deliver between GBP 100,000,000 and GBP 200,000,000 of EBITDA during the bridge period. Speaker 100:04:35And I'll provide more details on that in a second. So again, across those three businesses, we're now targeting 600,000,000 to 700,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA after 2027. And again, I want to reemphasize that that target is stated before accounting for development expenditure for growth, which is the fourth column on that page. But we have attractive options, which we continue to believe offer significant opportunity for long term value creation. In our FlexGen business at the Drax Power Station which could accommodate both the data center and BEX, it's unique in The UK and having four gigawatts of grid access. Speaker 100:05:15And in the context of electrification and the rising demand for power as well as its importance for energy security, affordability and decarbonization, the so called energy trilemma. We're continuing to assess options to create long term value from the site. And of course, we're continuing to be very excited about the opportunities in global carbon removals which we will be executing through Elimini, our new carbon removals business. Onto Page six. The agreement of a heads of terms for a CFD supporting post-twenty twenty seven operations is a very positive step and an endorsement of the contribution that drives power station and biomass make towards energy security and decarbonization as well as being a value for money solution, saving bill payers billions over the term of the agreement. Speaker 100:06:11Under the agreement, we will sell the equivalent of about six terawatt hours ratably across the year to achieve the baseload reference price and receive or pay the difference between the baseload reference price and the CFD strike price, the so called hop up. In periods of high demand, we'll actually use all four units to produce and sell as much power as possible at higher peak prices. And in periods of lower demand, we'll add value by buying back power at lower off peak prices. By operating in this way, we will help support energy security, provide flexibility to the power system and earn a higher average price for power than the CFD strike price. We expect the system to become more volatile in the future as electricity demand increases and more intermittent capacity comes online. Speaker 100:07:06We're creating more opportunities for us to do more and to earn more. And we're planning to run some sessions for investors and analysts with our commercial team to help explain the mechanics of the agreement. The agreement also includes the continued evolution of sustainability standards and we're very supportive of that. There has been some suggestion that to meet supply chain emissions targets we would be required to buy more European versus U. S. Speaker 100:07:40Biomass. I want to be quite clear that that's not the case and wherever we source from we expect our supply chain to meet those emissions targets and we are confident that it will. Finally, just to describe a bit the process from here, we expect government to lay secondary legislation, a statutory instrument, before Parliament in the coming months, which will give them the power to award CFDs to biomass generators. And subsequently, the agreement will be subject to a subsidy control mechanism process. Turning to page seven. Speaker 100:08:19I'm sure you all have seen this but I just wanted to emphasize and highlight the recent launch of our new sustainability framework. This is a very important and large scale piece of work which supports our commitment to develop and enhance our approach to sustainability across the three pillars of client, nature and people. Please have a look at it. It includes substantial targets across those three areas and something that we're very committed to. And again, we plan to arrange sessions to run through this with analysts and investors. Speaker 200:08:52Now over to Andy. Thank you, Will, and good morning, everyone. Starting with the financial summary on Slide nine. Once again, we've delivered strong financial and operational performance. Adjusted EBITDA grew 5% to $1,064,000,000 reflecting a high level of renewable powered mineral systems support activity and an improvement in pellet production. Speaker 200:09:19Our balance sheet is strong. We ended the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.9 times. The business is generating significant cash from operations, which provides a strong foundation for investing in our core business and delivering attractive returns to shareholders. Cash generated from operations in the year was over $1,100,000,000 The board proposed a final dividend of 15.6p per share, bringing a full year dividend for 2024 to 26p per share, which is a year on year increase of over 12%. Last week, we published a company collected consensus for 2025. Speaker 200:10:00We are comfortable within the consensus range subject to continued good operational performance. Moving on to look at performance by business. In February of last year, we set out a target to deliver more than $500,000,000 an annum of post 27 recurring adjusted EBITDA from our Flex Gen and Energy Solutions and pellet production businesses. As Will has already noted, earlier this month, we agreed a non binding heads of terms for a CFD for Drax Power Station to operate between April 27 and March 31. Reflecting our expectations for that agreement, we're now targeting recurring post-twenty seven adjusted EBITDA in the range of $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 This excludes investment opportunities, which includes development expenditure and eliminate innovation and capital projects. Speaker 200:10:57Performance in pumped storage and hydro was underpinned by robust system support earnings. Our I and C Energy Solutions business continues to perform strongly. As well noted, the majority of the meter points in the SME business were sold in September 24 and last week we reached agreement for the sale of the remaining meter points. These will take effect from May of twenty twenty five, subject to regulatory approval. In pellet production, we increased volumes and margin and we delivered record levels of adjusted EBITDA. Speaker 200:11:32Strong performance in biomass generation reflects a 27% increase in renewable generation and the continuing role that Drak's power station plays in supporting The UK power system. On to Slide 11. We're continuing to target greater than $250,000,000 of post 2027 recurring adjusted EBITDA from FlexGen and Energy Solutions. And strong performance in 2024 is supportive of delivering that target. Our pumped storage and run of river hydro assets performed strongly with increased generation output compared to the prior period. Speaker 200:12:10Our assets are well placed to support the system and capture value when there's pronounced changes in system need and commodity prices like in the period between 2022 and 2023. Adjusted EBITDA in Energy Solutions of $51,000,000 included $81,000,000 of earnings from our INC business. Alongside supplying renewable energy, our INC business provides EV and other value added services such as asset optimization. These earnings reflect a consistent margin on contracted energy supply prices and we expect earnings from EV and other services to grow over time. In total, FlexGen and Energy Solutions delivered adjusted EBITDA of $188,000,000 So taken together with our target post 2027 earnings from our three new OCGTs of $50,000,000 and capacity market income from the Crookan Units 3 And 4 refurbishment of 15,000,000. Speaker 200:13:11The illustrative earnings increased to greater than $250,000,000. The 80,000,000 investment to refurbish and upgrade Units 3 And 4 at Crookan is on track. The project's underpinned by a fifteen year capacity market agreement worth over $220,000,000 and they'll add 40 megawatts of additional capacity by 2027 and improve unit operations. Our three new build OCGTs are expected to commission in 2025, whilst later than originally planned, primarily due to delays in grid connection by the relevant authorities. These OCGTs will provide combined capacity of 900 megawatts and be remunerated under fifteen year capacity market agreements worth over $250,000,000 And in addition, will earn revenues from peak power generation and system support services. Speaker 200:14:06We believe that retirement of older thermal generation assets and increased reliance on intermittent renewables together with an increase in power demand will drive a growing need for dispatchable power and system support services and that this creates long term earnings opportunity and value from the group's flexible generation assets. Onwards to slide 12. We've already secured capacity market agreements in the period to 02/1942 with a value of £600,000,000 This could grow to over £1,000,000,000 if on renewal we secure new capacity market agreements at an equivalent price to the twenty twenty four T minus four auction of £65 a kilowatt. These values are in 2024 money, so they're subject to indexation with UK CPI. So now looking at pellet production on Slide 13. Speaker 200:15:07Our pellet production business made strong progress in 2024 with improved operational performance and profitability. Production volumes increased to 4,000,000 tonnes, of which 2,400,000 tonnes were sold to Draught's power station. The margin achieved on O Niu supply better reflects the current market value of long term large scale supply. The margin achieved on our legacy third party contracts is lower. Combined with a reduced cost of production, the achieved EBITDA margin per tonne of production increased to And reflecting the above, adjusted EBITDA grew to $143,000,000 As Will noted earlier, we expect that own use volumes will average around 2,000,000 tons a year for the period of the CFD agreement for post-twenty seven operations. Speaker 200:16:00And this provides a strong underpin to delivery of our target earnings. Delivering that $250,000,000 target assumes that we will continue efforts to maximize production from our existing capacity and will drive operational efficiencies to our supply chain and that will include increased use of technology. Secondly, that we'll renew lower margin legacy third party contracts at improved pricing and or will secure sales to new markets, which includes SAC. Lastly, we'll add incremental capacity as the demand profile becomes clear. Hawkins right forecast show a greater than 30% increase in demand for biomass from 50,000,000 tonnes in 2024 to 65,000,000 tonnes by 02/1930. Speaker 200:16:51And this reflects markets such as SAF and BECS beginning to accelerate. We remain positive on the long term outlook. A lower requirement for third party supply of biomass for Drax post 2027 could lead to a supply demand imbalance in the medium term. But as a producer, a user and a seller of biomass, we believe that we're well placed to create value. We are developing a pipeline of sales opportunities for SAF, which we believe could be a major market opportunity for biomass pellets. Speaker 200:17:25During the year, we agreed heads of terms of Pathway Energy on a multiyear agreement that could see Drak supply 1,000,000 tons of biomass pellets each year for production of SAF at their proposed plant in Port Arthur, Texas. In the future, we could potentially supply two additional projects, delivering a further 2,000,000 tons of pellets per year to pathway sites through the 2030s. So now looking at slide 14. In 2024, Draught's power station generated over 5% of The UK's electricity, around 10% of its renewable power and on certain days over 50% at times of peak demand. Adjusted EBITDA of $814,000,000 was an increase of 16% compared to the prior period, and it reflects a higher level of renewable power generation and system support services in response to a greater system need. Speaker 200:18:21Drak's power station produced 14.6 terawatt hours of electricity, an increase of 27% from the prior period. Our RO units are fully hedged for 2025 and over 80% hedged in 2026. So in total, we have 20 terawatt hours locked in at an average price of over through Q1 twenty twenty seven. In addition, we expect the CFD unit to run at a high load factor for the coming years. These strong forward power hedges together with a 500,000,000.0 working capital benefit from the end of the RO scheme at Draught Power Station in 2027 underpin greater than GBP 1,000,000,000 of post tax operating cash flows in the period from 2025 to 2027. Speaker 200:19:11And that's prior to the commencement of the new low carbon dispatchable CFD agreement. So looking at the balance sheet on Slide 15. We maintain a strong focus on cash flow discipline and maintenance of a robust balance sheet. Available cash and committed undrawn facilities at the end of the year of $8.00 $6,000,000 provide substantial headroom over our short term liquidity requirements. During the year, we put in place over $700,000,000 of new debt maturing in 2017 to 2029 and we repaid over 900,000,000 of shorter dated maturities, significantly extending the group's average maturity profile beyond 2027. Speaker 200:19:55We have no significant near term maturities. Strong financial performance and cash generation is supportive of maintaining our credit ratings and during the second quarter, the group's issuer credit ratings were reaffirmed as BBB plus by Fitch and S and P and as BBB low by DBRS and that's with a stable outlook in each case. So moving on to slide 16 in capital investment. Our capital expenditure of $330,000,000 included $212,000,000 of growth expenditure and $83,000,000 on maintenance. The growth expenditure includes $90,000,000 for the OCGTs, over $60,000,000 for pellet production capacity mainly at the Longview site and 30 plus million for crew can units three and four expansion. Speaker 200:20:47As part of the continued investment to ensure good operational performance of our generation assets, a major planned outage on one unit at Drax Power Station was completed in August of twenty twenty four and the unit returned to service ahead of schedule. There are no major planned outages in 2025. We're expecting CapEx to be in the range of 180,000,000 to to $220,000,000 in 2025. So lastly, looking at capital allocation on Slide 17. We will remain disciplined on our capital allocation as we seek to maximize value. Speaker 200:21:24Our policy was launched in 2017 and it remains unchanged. It has four pillars. Firstly, balance sheet strength. We define this as maintaining our current credit ratings which we believe are consistent with our long term target of two times net debt to EBITDA ratio. Secondly, to invest in our core business. Speaker 200:21:44We continue to assess opportunities for the development of our portfolio and in addition to the group's options for increasing long duration storage of Krewkem, this could also include opportunities in other storage solutions like batteries, which could complement the range of services the FlexGen business can provide. Thirdly, a sustainable and growing dividend. The expected full year dividend is a 12.6% growth in dividend per share and over the last seven years since the policy commenced, dividend growth has averaged around 11%. Finally, we'll return surplus capital to shareholders. In August, we commenced the share buyback program for the purchase of up to 300,000,000 of Drak shares over a two year period. Speaker 200:22:30We are almost halfway through and have bought back over 23,000,000 shares and the third tranche will commence shortly. With that, we'll hand back to Mark. Speaker 100:22:40Thank you, Andy. And now I'm on Page 19. And I wanted to provide a bit more of a framework to describe how we're assessing our investment opportunities. First, it's important to realize that the energy transition is creating a wealth of short, medium and long term opportunities for investments that have the potential to deliver attractive returns and are also aligned with our capabilities, our purpose and our strategic objectives. We're also aware of the need to be focused, the need to manage risk, the need to prioritize the highest return and most immediate payback investments, especially given the increasing uncertainty we see not only in The UK but globally. Speaker 100:23:27So first, we're excited about our short term opportunities. As you know or as we've said several times already, we're in the middle of our GBP 300,000,000 share buyback and we continue to see a lot of value in our shares. In addition, we're making incremental investments in our pellet business to drive down cost and then our training capabilities to drive efficiency and more rapid decision making. We're commissioning the open cycles, the OCDTs, which we believe are now more important than ever as the value of flexibility increases. So I think about the medium term. Speaker 100:24:02A key investment thesis during my time at Drax is the growing value of flexibility, complementing intermittent renewables and inflexible nuclear. With the retirement of dispatchable fossil fuel plants and the deployment of more renewables and a structural increase in the demand for power, we're now seeing this play out. And we're leaning into this with a 40 megawatt expansion of Crooket, an 80,000,000 program that we expect will deliver an expected return in excess of 20%. And we also see more opportunity to develop and grow our portfolio of dispatchable assets in what we believe is an increasingly attractive market. We see grid connected batteries with two hours and more duration as a potentially attractive addition to our portfolio. Speaker 100:24:50And we'll look at both development and acquisition opportunities in that space. In pellets, we're continuing to develop the Longview project but we're also assessing the medium term supply demand dynamic associated with that project. I think longer term, our first long term priority is to create a definitive independent future for the Drakis Power Station beyond the CFD bridge. One option for that is a data center and I'll talk more about that in a minute. And beyond that, we're continuing to develop further growth options for Flexjet and carbon removals. Speaker 100:25:30We remain positive on the opportunities from FlexGen including the Kroukan two or the extension of Kroukan on BEX in The UK and globally, all of which we believe will be required to address the competing challenges of the energy trilemma. That being said, we expect to be quite judicious in the investments that we will make to maintain those options. And as we have always said, any investments in those longer term opportunities will be subject to the right long term framework and greater certainty. I'd like to add that the government's recent announcements of a review of greenhouse gas removal technologies as well as the direction of travel on the long duration storage cap and floor mechanism as well as the initial policy moves of the Trump administration all have increased the level of uncertainty. Just to reiterate that, of which we are very aware. Speaker 100:26:37That being said, we want to maintain these options and we will allocate capital to them when we're content with the risk return profile relative to the other opportunities which I've already just discussed. I would also say that to the extent we find other ways of advancing our strategy, carbon removals, FlexGen and pellets that have more certainty, less risk and more immediate cash flow generation. We are very much attracted to this. Fundamentally, all of this is underpinned by our capital allocation policy, which I believe we've executed with quite some discipline for quite some time. Moving on to page 20. Speaker 100:27:23I think the next couple of pages to talk about sort of how our portfolio aligns with some of the things that are happening in the marketplace. So decarbonization of the system by renewables is a success story and The UK has led the way. But of course it comes with its challenges and costs. More wind on the system drives intermittency and requires more active management, for tailing wind in certain periods and incentivizing thermal generation in others. This is increasing the cost of managing the system as well as the opportunity for us to play our part by delivering the services that the system needs. Speaker 100:27:58And this has been central to our strategy for a long time. And as you can see on this page, the data absolutely supports it. Over the last six years, we've seen a 50% increase in terawatt hours of wind generation, a 600% increase in the hours of negative pricing, a doubling of system costs as well as a doubling of pump storage activity. So we're increasingly confident in the value we can create from these opportunities and you can see that coming through in our reported numbers. Since 2019, our FlexGen and Energy Solutions business has delivered greater than $850,000,000 of EBITDA against capital investment of less than $200,000,000 over the same period. Speaker 100:28:44We're doing more across our portfolio of pumped storage, hydro, gas and biomass, which provide exposure to the drivers of value across the power system. On to Page 21. And we have exciting opportunities to grow this portfolio, incremental investment in the short and medium term. So So we have the 40 megawatt expansion of Krewkin, which I've talked about. We have the opportunity to invest in Krewkin's new, which I've also talked about. Speaker 100:29:12And batteries is the third area, which we've probably talked less about. But I want to talk a bit about it now, which we're also evaluating opportunity to expand the range of services we can provide, including batteries, which could be added relatively quickly, complementing the existing portfolio and allowing us to provide a full range of services to the grid across a wider technology base. And Thrust Batteries fits nicely into our portfolio. It gives us a short duration storage opportunity. It takes advantage of our strong trading and optimization characteristics and we think has nice synergies with the rest of our portfolio. Speaker 100:29:51Onto page 22. We've been looking at the opportunity to develop a data center for about a year now. And we think that our proposition of a large scale 20 fourseven renewable power, secure infrastructure, as well as proximity to the national fiber optic network is attractive. And we have a short list of developers we're talking to about the opportunity. We see this as beginning probably before 02/1930 with a 100 megawatt development, which ultimately could scale to 1.2 gigawatts as we go through the 2030s. Speaker 100:30:30And we can provide a long term behind the meter power source with an offtake agreement at the DAX power station. And it could also be complemented by BECCS. The two things are not mutually exclusive. Similarly, it also works with the post 2027 CFD agreements without the need for additional generation capacity to back up 100 megawatt data center. And even without the generation capacity from our biomass units, we want to emphasize the value that we have at the site. Speaker 100:30:59The grid access has value. And I note that Harworth, another site, recently agreed to sale of 48 acres of land with grid access to a data center developer for more than £100,000,000 which on a comparable pro form a basis would be more than £500,000,000 for two fifty acres of powered land at Drax. So we're working with developers now and we're targeting MOU and due diligence at some point later this year and we will update you as we have more news. Turning to page 23. We're continuing to target more than $250,000,000 in the long term for our pallet production business and we made good progress in 2024. Speaker 100:31:44We improved our output from 3.8 to 4,000,000 tons and we improved our margins. And the CFD agreement for the Drax Power Station is an important underpin and we're expecting to use about 2,000,000 tons from our U. S. Plants post 2027, again, in a price consistent with our target margin. But as we've set up already, we have work to do to deliver the rest of that target. Speaker 100:32:09We need to increase production from our existing capacity. We need to add incremental capacity as the demand profile becomes clear. And our Longview project is an interesting option for that. We need to renew the existing legacy contracts with aging customers at improved rates and or identify a pipeline for sales into new markets including sustainable aviation fuel or SAF. On top of these things, we expect to supplement them with efforts to drive operational improvements and efficiencies across our supply chain using AI and also other types of technology. Speaker 100:32:45For example, we're researching biomass chemistry and looking for ways to allow us to improve pellet quality while extracting sugars which could provide a secondary revenue stream from sales into a range of new markets including animal feeds and ethanol. So we remain positive on the long term outlook for pellet sales. But we do recognize that changes in demand from draft power stations post-twenty seven could lead to some supplydemand imbalance in the medium term. For the end, as Andy mentioned, as a producer, user and seller of biomass, we believe we're well positioned to create value that might come from any disruptions in the supply chain. On Page 24, let me talk a bit more about sustainable aviation fuels. Speaker 100:33:33So again, we're excited about the potential for this market as we are about BECCS. We think there's multiple new market opportunities for pellets. Specifically in the SAF world, by 02/1930, forecasters expect this could be about a 5,000,000,000 gallon market. That forecast is underpinned by mandates from The UK and The EU, plus targets in North America and Japan. And to give you a bit of context, that's less than 5% of the total markets for aviation fuels. Speaker 100:34:05If you think about that, what does that mean in terms of pellets? Well, 5,000,000,000 gallons would would be equivalent to more than 100,000,000 tons. It would take more than 100,000,000 tons of pellets to make 5,000,000,000 gallons of SAF. But let's be clear, we don't expect that all of that SAF will be made from pellets. In fact, maybe 5% or so or four to 5,000,000 tons of pellets would be used to make roughly 5% of that sap. Speaker 100:34:30With the rest of the feedstock coming from waste, fats and cooking oil. That's a sort of macro view. On a micro view or from our perspective, again, we have this heads of terms with Pathway for a million ton per year pellet contract that starts in 2019 for a plant in Texas. It's attractive to us because it's domestic to The U. S. Speaker 100:34:53It's close to our Drax assets, meaning a sure supply chain. And our deal with Pathway has the potential to add a couple of additional sites, meaning there could be about as many as 3,000,000 tons per annum in 2030s with that one customer. So as a reminder, our long term target for pellets production is 5,000,000 tons. So if you have 2,000,000 at Drax and 3,000,000 through SAF, it could be there even before you include additional European and Asian demand from other uses. Onto page 25 on Eliminate. Speaker 100:35:30So Eliminate, our carbon removals company has had a good year in '24. Launching, it was launched formally, a very exciting launch process in New York at Climate Week and we also established our headquarters in Texas. And we remain positive on the long term opportunity from carbon removals, but I'd like to emphasize that we think they are long term opportunities. The market for CDRs as you can see on the page is growing. It's predominantly based on BECCS, but it is still small relative to our large scale greenfield projects. Speaker 100:36:07And again, as I said before, we need to have the right regulation, commercial agreements and macro political environment in place before we commit capital. So our future development expenditure is likely to be slower than it has been. And in addition to looking at greenfield new build options, we're looking at ways of entering the market with lower risk, lower capital commitments and more immediate positive cash flow. So for example, we're looking at developing a carbon credit training desk which would allow us to access a wider range of products and revenues before 02/1930. We're also looking at other ways of developing CDRs, not just using BECCS. Speaker 100:36:49And I would say we're looking at these will be lower cost and again smaller capital investments. So we're not really looking at direct air capture if that's what you're thinking. But again, we remain very positive on the long term need for carbon removals and BECCS in The UK as well as globally. And as such, we continue a well progressed option for BECCS and BECCS power station, which we believe can be and should be an important component of the government's plans for net zero in the 2030s and beyond. But again, we require significantly more certainty before committing to capital. Speaker 100:37:22And as such, we look to the UK government to provide more clarity on the process from here to create the right investment framework to take these important infrastructure projects forward. So finally, on Page 26, we are delivering attractive returns for shareholders with strong operational performance, substantial dividend growth, disciplined capital allocation and a significant share buyback. We're also delivering for all stakeholders with opportunities aligned to energy security, affordability and decarbonization. We had a good year in 2024 providing good evidence of our attractive business model, providing support to The UK power system through FlexGen, Drax Power Station and the associated pellet supply chain. The heads of terms for CFD at the Drax Power Station is a very important inflection point. Speaker 100:38:16But again, a reminder, we still have work to do to convert that heads of terms into a firm contract. The post 2027 adjusted EBITDA target from FlexGen pellets in the Drax Power Station of 600,000,000 to £700,000,000 reflects growing confidence in our medium to long term outlook. And strong cash flow generation and attractive growth opportunities, we will approach those in a disciplined manner to maximize returns and minimize risk. So thank you for listening to that more lengthy than usual discussion and we look forward to taking any questions. Thank Operator00:39:11you. You. The first question is from Dominic Nash, Barclays. Please go ahead. Speaker 300:39:28Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your presentation and opportunity to ask a question. Can I say, first of all, you have got a lot of moving parts going on here like every single level? And clearly, I think there's going to be a lot of questions. So I'll limit to actually two, but the first one is a bit of a stream of consciousness one, I guess, which is, can we just start, first of all, with your biomass bridging mechanism? You're clearly going down to six terawatt hours. Speaker 300:40:01First of all, what's your expectation of extra terawatt hours above that six terawatt hours that you can operate on a merchant basis. And the next sort of link to that is clearly six terawatt hours is what 3,000,000 tonnes of biomass and you're coming I think burning about 7,000,000 tonnes. So I'm going to get I'm trying to get a feel for what your delta is in biomass production. And I know that you've said that two, three times on this call that there will be a short run sort of overhang of pellet oversupply as you maintain your 2,000,000 tonnes of self supply, therefore third parties get squeezed, which then leads on to the question second question then is when and how are you contracting for your pellets? And as we move into that short run overhang, are you going to be contracting with yourself at this sort of arm's length sort of market price that could be quite dampened if you end up with that overhang? Speaker 300:41:05And or have you actually put the contracts in place? Or do we have a risk that you're striking CFD sort of naked? And then sort of finally on that one, have I missed this? But I think you had an 8,000,000 tonne pellet ambition by 02/1930. I presume that, in light of this bridging mechanism and the time it is likely to be an ambition rather than a target maybe. Speaker 300:41:31So apologies, that's my first question. The second one hopefully Speaker 100:41:34will be a bit quicker, Speaker 300:41:36which is the BEX. It looks to me BEX is being dialed down. Clearly, you've got uncertainty as you pointed out with what's going on in The States of Trump. The UK government policy looks a little probably less supportive of carbon capture, but you're dialing up flexibility in data centers instead. One area of uncertainty that we're getting here is obviously Rhema and the zonal power pricing. Speaker 300:41:59Could you give us a flavor of what opportunities and or what impact that will have on your flexible generation capability, OCGTs, Kraken and your potential expansion in inflection? And do you have to wait until we get clarity on that before we get a sort of a view on what you're going to do? Thank you. Speaker 100:42:21Okay. I would say there's lots of moving parts in that question Dominic. So thank you for that. So just maybe I'll start with the bridge. So I guess the first thing I'd say is that the bridge has a cap and a floor of how much we will generate. Speaker 100:42:39That's the first thing. Sixty one hour thing in the cap, which I think is the probably the important question. In terms of some of the numbers we've been saying, I think when we get to 20, 27, the actual sort of number at that point in time, I think is gonna be about 170, right, for the actual level of the CFD. I think we're talking about biomass cost as being at about 130, if you wanted to sort of take a number out. So I guess the question really becomes how much, how often do you or we think the market will be, the power price will be above that 130, right, so that we could generate on a without a CFD to support the generation, right? Speaker 100:43:20We're not thinking of it as being a very big number given where power prices are today. We think there is some possibility there, but I would I would say it's, you know, it's it's it's not a big number of marginal at best. I would suggest I think it's probably a baseline number, right? I mean, as we've seen in the last few years, there's lots of things that can happen. So, that's sort of based on the world as we see it from today. Speaker 100:43:42So to do those six terawatt hours, it's again, it's about 3,000,000 tons of pellets. We're expecting to use about 2,000,000 of our own. The rest of the pellets that we have, we have effectively the the contracts we have into Asia effectively use pretty much the rest of the ones that we've got today, in terms of that sort of 4,500,000 tons. So that's, you know, I think our book is is well, for our production is is well sold, shall we say, right? In terms of the price at which we sell those pellets, you know, that has to be an arm's length price, for, you know, for reasons of transparency relative to the bridge, for reasons of tax reasons, etcetera. Speaker 100:44:23But again, that prices should also reflect the value of a long term contracted position. And that's true today and that will always be true. So your final question is a railway on the other billion tons. I mean, we've been planning for this as well. We were planning to make sure we have the ability to have knowable and firm prices beyond 2027 for some time. Speaker 100:44:45We do have some option agreements in place with some third party providers. So I would say we are comfortable that we have known costs. And if the market, if there's market opportunity to do better, we will take advantage of that. In terms of BECCS, I think what I would say is that the, if you take it maybe US and then The UK, I think we until this sort of current administration took office, I think our feeling had been that the IRA would likely stay in place. And given this sorry, I should say that the subsidy support for carbon capture that's embedded within the IRA, I. Speaker 100:45:32E. The 45 Q mechanism would continue on the basis that it's very supportive of investment and job growth in many red states. I think we would still believe that to be true. However, I think the other volatility that's been sort of, that we have seen as a result of what the Trump administration is doing, I think creates a lot more uncertainty than I probably was expecting, which is a bit of a surprise to me given I was expecting quite a bit. So I think we are quite a lot more cautious, as I think many market participants are on longer term large scale investments in renewable technologies in The US. Speaker 100:46:14That's a very significant issue. In terms of The UK, I guess I would say to be fair, I was not expecting a review of greenhouse gas removal technologies from the UK government to be announced at the same time as the bridge was announced. Right? I have had some discussions with government about that and I think it's, my sense is that they would like to make sure they're comfortable with the direction of travel on the policy, which is obviously clearly in their gift and something they need to be and need to do. But it does create again additional uncertainty. Speaker 100:46:46So in addition to needing to wait for the spending review, which we see in the summer, the sort of beginning of the track two process, which again we're expecting in the summer, we need to see the results of that review. So all of that for me is actually meaning that, you know, we are, as we have been and, you know, we didn't spend capital on UK VEX last year because we've been in this position for some time. So it's not in some ways a change of approach. It's just, I guess, the the uncertainty may be higher than we had thought it would be. On Rima, I think from my perspective, the, I guess there's two positions. Speaker 100:47:23First one is that any new investment, if we were planning any new development activity, I. E. New build, greenfield asset build, I think is significantly challenged by the uncertainty that has been created by the potential move to zonal pricing. That's true for, but to be fair, we really only have one sort of unstarted greenfield build project, which would be the expansion of Kruken. And there's lots of uncertainties around that as well. Speaker 100:47:55So that project is very much waiting for more certainty. And again, we'll probably update you to market sometime soon on where that sit sits because the capital floor again, we're analyzing it now, so we should have some more visibility on that. But again, there's still plenty of uncertainty around that one, right? But anything we might do in batteries, for example, I would expect us, I'd be more interested in sort of owning something that has a grid connection, has some known cash flows and actually building something new. And Rhema is one of the factors around that. Speaker 100:48:24Now how Rhema might impact our existing portfolio, open cycles, draft power station, etcetera, it's hard to know because we don't know what the zones are. We don't know what the pricing will be. And so that's something we are watching. And in fact, we don't know when it's gonna happen. So, I guess I guess the summary is that for existing assets, we'll have to see how it plays out. Speaker 100:48:42And for anything that we would be thinking about starting, we would have to have more certainty before doing so. Hope that answers your question, that might be. Speaker 300:48:50Yes. Apologies for the long questions and I appreciate your response. Can you just clarify though, will you be signing your pellet contracts for self supply at a different rate that potentially your third party suppliers may be offering you in light of the overhang? Speaker 100:49:10We will be signing prices that are fundamentally consistent with where the market is. Speaker 300:49:15Okay. Thank you very much. Operator00:49:19The next question from Pavan Mahbubani, JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Speaker 400:49:25Hi, team. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I've got two, please. So on the OCGTs, can we have an update on where we are in terms of the commissioning? And my follow-up there is how are you thinking about the OCGTs as part of your portfolio? Speaker 400:49:45Because before you've indicated that these could be assets that you would be willing to sell and in previous periods, you've said that it may not be consistent with the portfolio that you want to have towards the end of the decade or in the future. Sounds today like that's pain, but if you can give us an update on how you're thinking about that? And then my second question is thinking about capital allocation and leverage, you're still maintaining your two times net debt to EBITDA target, but it looks like you're quite significantly below, although it's true that your EBITDA number is going to be declining in the coming years versus the 24 basis. But how are you thinking about your headroom capital allocation as you come to the end of this share buyback program in the coming months or towards the end of the year? Are you thinking that you have the headroom to do more? Speaker 400:50:38Or can you talk about how much you're willing to spend on batteries just so we can get an indication of how you're seeing balance sheet headroom if you do see it the same way I'm indicating and how you think about splitting that? Thank you. Speaker 100:50:52Okay. I'm going to take the first one and I'm going to ask Andy to take the second one. So on the open cycles in terms of commissioning, we've got three sites as you know. I would say that, you know, they are they are very delayed, and they're very delayed, I think fundamentally because of, our ability to get national grid and the system operator to actually give us access to the grids and commission them. So that's something that's, we're we're working hard to get them, you know, to hopefully get cooperatively with them to get them to perform on what they need to do. Speaker 100:51:25So that's a I mean, and and we're quite disappointed in how that's gone. Right? I would say, I mean, for example, some of them are more than a year past when they were due to be commissioned. Right? And that's again because of access to the grid. Speaker 100:51:39But again, we expect to commission this year. You know, I would say hopefully one in the first half, probably the other two in the second half realistically. In terms of being part of their portfolio, I think the way I'm gonna think about it is that the, our purpose is to enable zero carbon lower cost energy future and that we think that peaking plants are part of that enabling, right? They enable the system to stay in balance when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. And so I think they fit into the portfolio. Speaker 100:52:05There is an important provider there which you will have seen in our sustainability framework that we have a commitment to being net zero ourselves by 02/1940. And so if we do keep them and again, if there's an attractive offer to buy them, that is consistent with our view of the expected returns, which again, as I've said before, we think the expectation has risen, not dropped. We will look at it, and we need to find a way to make sure that we are net zero by 2040 that's consistent with having them if they are still in our portfolio. Andy? Speaker 200:52:37Yeah. On the second question, Pavan, so we start with around a billion of net debt at the end of this year. And as you noted, to the extent that consensus exists for '27 now, it it's around 560,000,000. So on a two times basis, that's supportive of of the debt that we have today. Now clearly, we're gonna generate significant cash as we've noted in the period through '27, including the rock and line. Speaker 200:53:04But that will give us, you know, plenty of capacity to do anything as far as adding to, expanding our our portfolio. And then our capital allocation policy is is very clear, and we'll continue to be disciplined in how we apply that. So, you know, if there's surplus cash, then it's clear what we would, what we would consider, and we'll continue to do Speaker 400:53:29it. Thank you. Operator00:53:34The next question from Harrison Williams, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Speaker 500:53:40Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Two from me. First, just on the pellet guidance. So I think you achieved a margin this year of kind of 36 per tonne and you've reiterated the target to reach, I guess, 50 pounds per tonne. Speaker 500:53:57Can you give us some insight into how that will, I guess, develop between now and 2027? Should it be a gradual improvement? Or are you expecting to see more back end loaded? And I guess maybe another way of asking that question, at the end of the period, well, in 2028, I guess, how much of the five megatons you're expecting to produce will still be on legacy contracts that are suboptimal? So that's the first question. Speaker 500:54:23And the second question, as we think about your discussions with data centers, is it reasonable to use the CFD bridge as a reasonable pricing point? Or are there differences we should be considering in those negotiations? Thanks. Speaker 100:54:43Just maybe I understand the second question. So you're saying is the CFD strike price the right price to think of for the data center? Speaker 500:54:52Yeah. I mean, that is that sort of pricing point you'd be expecting to achieve or would you be expecting maybe something lower but much higher vol well, I guess you've given us the volumes. I guess, any further color in respect to that price point? Speaker 100:55:04So, first one, I'll ask Andy to come back on the first one in a sec, but I'll take the second one. I think the way that we need to think about the data center position is it needs to be so the behind the meter effectively opportunity means that you're not paying the third party charges and other grid charges that effectively one pays if it's a consumer of power through the grid, right? Now that's, you know, the significance that probably doubles more or less the cost of wholesale power. So effectively what we need to do is we need to basically price, we need to reach an agreement with the data center provider which is competitive with what they might be able to get through the grid. So I would think of it much more as a sort of commercial negotiation where we need to make sure we're providing an attractive option that's consistent with the other forms of power that a data center provider could access. Speaker 100:55:53So I think that's what I think about it. Hopefully that answers that one. And do you Speaker 200:55:56have any thoughts? Yes. So today, we have around 4,000,000 tons. And if you look at that, it's, Speaker 100:56:04you Speaker 200:56:04know, it's split reasonably evenly between the South Of The US and Canada. To get to 5,000,000 will increase output from our existing plants to 4,500,000 tons. And most of that expansion will come out of the the southern plants. And, and and we're making good progress there. We increased production this year, and we commissioned Aliceville expansion during the year, so we're on track to do more pellets out of the South this year than last. Speaker 200:56:34So the important thing is that those southern, pellets are, you know, will supply the the period post '27 now through '31, so that's a good underpin for those earnings. So the balance then of around 2,000,000 tons of our existing is what, sits out in these long term, agent legacy contracts. Around a million tons of those will come up for renewal over the next five years. So over that time, there'll be a chance to, improve the margins potentially. The last half a million is a long view pellet plant expansion, and, we will only sort of finalize and do that once we're clear on on on the offtake for those pellets. Speaker 200:57:18So, you know, I I think it's fair to say that the, that that that the improvement there is gonna be back end loaded because it's going to depend on one, the timing of finishing Longview and the repricing of those legacy contracts that come over the next five years. Speaker 500:57:37Very helpful. Thanks. Operator00:57:40The next question from Alex Wheeler, RBC. Please go ahead. Speaker 600:57:47Good morning. Two from me, please. Well, two and a small follow-up. First one is on is the view very much that you look to focus on the FlexGen business over the coming years? You've highlighted that you're already broadly there on the $250,000,000 EBITDA target for post 2027. Speaker 600:58:07But given that supply demand imbalance in the pellets that you talk about, which might create a little more uncertainty, is it in FlexGen where you may focus for potential additional investments in the shorter term? And then I guess my question there is, is it only batteries that is a potential new opportunity there or are there other areas you might be looking at? Second point is just a follow-up on Pavan's question as I don't know if I missed it. Do you have a rough guide to what the sort of battery investment numbers might be? And then finally, just on the data center point, I know that we're at a very early stage here. Speaker 600:58:46But beyond the MOU, if we think about the initial 100 megawatts by 02/1930, could you just give a sense of what the, I guess, the timings and the moving parts might look like beyond signing an MOU to the extent that you can? Thank you. Speaker 100:59:05Okay. So on the investment focus, I mean, I think if you go, I think the key thing from the investment focus is there are a couple of different points. One is that, you know, it's it is we're we're attracted to investments where there is sort of known cash flow in in in our core markets. Right? If there are those in the pellet space, for example, we'd be interested, but that would require something that has a known offtake. Speaker 100:59:33And there aren't I don't think there's lots of opportunities in that space. Right? So in the flex gen space, we have we are seeing opportunities in that space. I mean, I think, you know, if you think about our portfolio, pumped storage, hydro, open cycles, customers, when I say customers less likely we will invest more in in sort of acquisitions of customers, but in the other spaces, if there's opportunities that line up with where we are in our portfolio, including batteries, we would do that. In terms of quantums, I guess the only thing I would say is that the, I think given the nature of uncertainty in the world at large at the moment, we will sort of be prudent in the sort of the bite sizes or the size of bites we might take. Speaker 101:00:11That's quite important. So one of the things again, you know, earlier cash flows, shorter paybacks, you know, attractive returns, you know, less risk embedded in any one specific transaction. Right? In terms of was it like yeah. So the the data center in terms of the timing, I mean, I think the, maybe the hundred megawatt point is important because, you know, we could actually we believe we can actually deliver power to a hundred megawatt data center in a way that's consistent with the way the bridge is structured. Speaker 101:00:43If you go bigger than that, that becomes more challenging and we'd have to sort of figure out how to do that. In terms of the timing of when we think a data center could get up and running, you know, 100 megawatts is probably the way we think about what we might do in the twenties broadly speaking. Right? So, so again, I think, you know, it's it's very likely, again, given the time that these things take that the, that, you know, all of that will work out in a way that makes sense to have that hundred megawatts alongside the bridge. Right? Speaker 101:01:12In terms of the rest of the timing on it, I think it's too early to say, Alex. I mean, exactly where we are. It's still early stage in these discussions. And so, we really would hope to have something more we can tell you this year, but it's beyond that. It's, it's fine. Speaker 101:01:23I would say something in the twenties, but sort of back ended probably. And then as I said before, growth in the thirties. Did I answered all your questions there. Speaker 401:01:35Yeah, that's great. Thank you. Operator01:01:38Next question from Adam Forsyth, Longsberg Capital. Please go ahead. Speaker 101:01:51Adam, we're not hearing you if you're speaking. Speaker 701:01:55Sorry, can you hear me now? Yes. Yes. Hi, sorry about that. And then, yes, two questions. Speaker 701:02:02Just essentially both on really on the new running of the biomass units after 2027. First is any impact on the Energy Solutions business? Will you guidance appears to be broadly unchanged for that business, but it's wrapped in with FlexGen. But I just wonder any material change in how you do purchasing and how you sort of manage risk in that business given the change in the biomass units operating? And then secondly, your comments on batteries and the four gigawatts of grid connection at the Drax Biostation site. Speaker 701:02:37I mean, it's actually about 1.2, almost 1.3 if that is actually available right now on the two old coal units that are not running. But I wonder if that what we should be focused on or can you go beyond that and actually run batteries alongside the grid connection for those biomass units? Speaker 101:02:55So first on the CFD and how does it impact the Drak Senergy Solutions business, I think we don't expect it to have a significant impact on the way that business is run. In terms of batteries, I would say we're looking at development options, but we're also looking at acquisition options. So I would say that's probably the way that I would have both of those in your mind. And I think that's probably answers that question right now. Speaker 401:03:21Okay. Thanks. Operator01:03:25The next question is from Charles Schwabbe, HSBC. Please go ahead. Speaker 801:03:30Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. First one, just on the recruiting expansion. Speaker 801:03:37I know you mentioned this a bit earlier, but I mean, when do you think we might get some additional clarity on that? I know we're going to get a few announcements in government this half of the year. But if you could provide an indication maybe when you're thinking a potential FID is possible and if you're more or less confident of getting that project to the line compared to twelve months ago. And then second one, just a follow-up on the data centers. All those conversations you're having with developers, are they involved in using Drak's Power Station as is? Speaker 801:04:10Were there any that involving BECCS as well? Thank you. Speaker 101:04:16Good questions. So in terms of the Kroukan expansion, I would say, we are, I would say, in the middle of assessing the attractiveness of the cabin four regime, I would say, as well as both in general and both how it applies specifically to the project that we've got. And I would expect we should have more clarity on that in the first half of this year. Right? I would say by the by results at the middle of the year. Speaker 101:04:41Put it that way. Right? And if you ask me, am I more or less confident? I'd probably say I'm less confident than I would have been in twelve months ago. Right? Speaker 101:04:49And that's to be honest, it's probably a function of our first initial blush like to pick Kevin forward. It's also probably a function of the overall sort of attractiveness of the macro environment for long term investments of that scale. On the data centers, I think currently we are looking, you know, most of that is is looking at the draft power station pretty much as it is, and running it, you know, running it or using power from the draft power station as it is. That being said, I think there would be, we are we have had discussions with people sort of in a general sense about BECCS power and how that might be attractive for a data center. I mean, this is by way of interest. Speaker 101:05:28It's something that's very much part of the pathway project. So for making SAF. So I think BECCS power is a way of increasing the carbon sort of or decreasing the carbon intensity of what people are doing by adding the carbon removal is just absolutely something to be learned today. So, I think it's probably not part of the initial offering, but it could be part of that. It definitely is consistent with what we might do with a data center over time. Speaker 801:05:54Great. Thank you. Operator01:05:58There are no more questions from the phone at the moment. Speaker 101:06:02Okay. Shall we take a there's two questions I see on the webcast. Shall I read them off? So you said at the beginning of the call that under the new sustainability criteria, you won't be required to buy more pellets from Europe. Is that on an absolute basis or as a percentage of your new pellet consumption under the new CFD? Speaker 101:06:22So I guess the first thing I would say is the way to think about this is, you know, when a pellet is produced and is travels through the supply chain to the direct power station, there is a limit to how much greenhouse gas can be emitted through that whole process. And all the pellets that we would expect to procure that come out of North America, We believe and we know that those can be procured at levels that have, that are consistent with that greenhouse gas cap, right? So I guess in specific answer, there's no requirement to buy more pellets from Europe and there's no limit or sort of there's no effective limit on what we can get out of North America based on that greenhouse gas emissions cap. Hope that answers that one. The c your second question from Martin Young. Speaker 101:07:14The first one was from Hugo Lehigh. Second one from Martin Young. The CP 02/1930 report points to considerable new generation being needed and there is a need to move at pace. I couldn't agree more. Engineered removals are part of the Climate Change Committee's seventh carbon budget. Speaker 101:07:34Correct? The policy progress is somewhat glacial. That's your term, Martin. Rima being a case in point, not helped by the zonal fight. Appreciate that Drax is likely to be less likely impacted by zonal, but interested in your view on zonals, yes or no, given your position. Speaker 101:07:54So I guess my view on zonal is that I think it's, I think that the the sort of the that's right. We did it. The conceptual economic rationale or the idea that, it, you know, it makes sense to have, you know, prices be lower where there's more supply than demand and prices to be higher in the situation which is the reverse. I can understand that logic, right? The challenge I think with Rima is twofold. Speaker 101:08:21One is the, the timing of the whole thing. Right? So one is that the uncertainty created by not knowing if and when it's going to happen and what the impact will be. So for new investment, I think it's quite a dampening impact. And as I mentioned before, Martin, that's not something that is impacting us so much at the moment, but, you know, as we think about things like the proof and expansion or we think about, you know, anything that we might do on a new bill front and as you know, our portfolio, there's nothing else significant on the new bill front there at the moment, that's definitely a consideration. Speaker 101:08:53And I know from talks with my peers around the industry that people who are working on large scale projects in all the different spaces, it's a very big issue for that. The second point for me is that even if there is logic to that, the question for me then becomes, how does, you know, can demand actually react to those signals, right? So, you know, things like a data center, you know, placing them near an offshore wind farm because the prices are lower. There's lots of other issues associated with where you would put a data center. So I think there's it's definitely a complex question, right? Speaker 101:09:27So I think it's a real substantial trade off between the benefits of actually certainty and knowing where you're going relative to the potential and potentially real economic benefits of having general pricing. I don't know if that's happened. It's probably a bit of a fudged answer, but hopefully that gives you a bit of context. Are there any more questions from the teleconference? There are Operator01:09:58no more questions from the telephone. Speaker 101:10:00Fine. And there's no more questions from the webcast. So thank you all for listening. I'm sort of, I guess, the one comment that stuck with me was yours, Dominic, in the very beginning, and there's been lots of moving parts. But I think, if I can go back and sort of, how would I sort of explain that? Speaker 101:10:17I think the if one thinks about the core business, I think the parts are becoming are moving less, maybe, if that's Speaker 401:10:26fair point. Speaker 101:10:27You know, I think the flex gen business is what it is and has been for some time. The pellet business, I think, is on a trajectory that's consistent with what our targets are and I think that hopefully that that's becoming more clear. Granted, I understand the CFD absolutely needs to be understood as a complex instrument. So we will spend time with everybody to make sure we do our best to help explain that. And then if I were to summarize briefly our sort of I think it is a change in our investment approach. Speaker 101:10:57It's very much more a function of, you know, as a result of greater uncertainty, higher cost of capital, you know, a bit less enthusiasm from governments and maybe from corporates in sort of committing their own capital to sort of green investments. You know, we're adapting accordingly. I know we're looking for things that we can invest, but we expect to be a couple billion pounds of available cash over the next half a decade, in things that give us immediate returns that are attractive and have the right risk return profile. And we think there are lots of interesting ways of doing that. So, hopefully that's well. Speaker 101:11:32Hopefully that summarizes it briefly where we are and I thank you all for listening and look forward to catching up over the next day's weeks. I think we have breakfast with many of you tomorrow. Thank you.Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallDrax Group H2 202400:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckInterim report Drax Group Earnings HeadlinesDrax Group Full Year 2024 Earnings: EPS Beats Expectations, Revenues LagMarch 30, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comUK power firm Drax signs capacity deals worth up to $56 millionMarch 12, 2025 | msn.comCollect $7k per month from Tesla’s SECRET dividendTesla doesn't pay a traditional dividend.... But I just discovered a secret backdoor to collect a secret 69% dividend from Tesla… Which could put up to $7,013 in your pocket every month…April 28, 2025 | Investors Alley (Ad)What Does The Future Hold For Drax Group plc (LON:DRX)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their EstimatesMarch 1, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comDrax Reaches Agreement With U.K. to Operate Power Station Beyond 2027February 10, 2025 | marketwatch.comUK Government Agrees on Funding for Drax’s Biomass Power PlantFebruary 10, 2025 | bloomberg.comSee More Drax Group Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Drax Group? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Drax Group and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Drax GroupDrax Group (LON:DRX), together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable power generation in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Pellet Production, Generation, and Customers. The Pellet Production segment produces and sells biomass pellets. The Generation segment provides renewable, dispatchable power, and system support services to the electricity grid. The Customers segment supplies electricity and gas to non-domestic customers. The company owns and operates Drax Power Station located in Selby, North Yorkshire; Cruachan Power Station, a pumped storage hydro station, with an installed capacity of 440 megawatts (MW) located in Argyll and Bute; and Lanark and Galloway hydro-electric power stations with an installed capacity of 126 MW located in southwest Scotland. It also owns and operates Daldowie fuel plant that processes sludge, a plant that converts it into dry low-odour fuel pellets. In addition, the company manufactures and sells compressed wood pellets; and supplies renewable electricity. 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There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00I will now hand over to Will Gardiner, CEO. Please go ahead, sir. Speaker 100:00:06Thank you and good morning everyone and thank you all for joining the call. I'm going to provide a short introduction and overview and then I'll hand over to Andy who will take you through the numbers and some of the operating points And then I'll come back to talk about some of our investment opportunities and more about capital allocation and we'll finish up the questions. Now on page three. You're all familiar with our purpose which is to enable a zero carbon, lower cost energy future. I'll start with that as I always do as it guides fundamentally everything that we do. Speaker 100:00:38Our strategy and business model are designed to deliver attractive returns for shareholders while realizing that purpose. We We have a strong core cash generated business that has a track record of achieving those joint objectives. And looking to the future, we have opportunities to invest in that core business to enhance shareholder returns as well as deliver positive outcomes for climate, nature and people. And critically, our people are at the heart of Drax where I want everyone to feel a valued member on a winning team with a worthwhile mission. Returning to Page four, we had a strong year. Speaker 100:01:19Good safety performance is critical in its own right and also underpins good operating and financial performance. So I was pleased that our total recordable injury rates reduced in 2024 from zero point three eight in '23 to zero point two four. We produced 25% more power than we did in 2023, which combined with a strong improvement in pellet production has driven a 5% increase in adjusted EBITDA. We significantly strengthened our balance sheet, adding $700,000,000 of new debt that matures in 2027 and beyond at attractive rates, which reflects the market's confidence in our long term business. We use those proceeds to repay about $900,000,000 of shorter dated facilities. Speaker 100:02:07We're committed to shareholder return and we're delivering those through the disciplined application of our capital allocation policy. We're announcing today a 12.68% increase in our dividends per share and we continue with a CHF 300,000,000 share buyback, which reflects our belief in the value we see in the business. The recent CFD agreement for the Drax power station is a good deal for The U. K. And I also think it's a good deal for us. Speaker 100:02:35And importantly, it reflects a significant inflection point for our company. So taken together with FlexGen and pellet production, we're today announcing an upgraded target for recurring adjusted EBITDA of GBP 600,000,000 to GBP 700,000,000 from these three businesses post 2027, which reflects our increased confidence in earnings visibility after 2027. And we also remain excited about the opportunities for long term growth, which were aligned with the energy transition and security of supply. And we will continue to commit appropriate development expenditure to those opportunities. And that expenditure is additional or outside that post-twenty twenty seven target for FlexGen, pellet production and biomass generation, which I just mentioned. Speaker 100:03:24The bottom line though is I wanna emphasize our capital allocation policy. We're committed to attractive returns to shareholders and we will continue to deliver those. Turning to Page five. Last year, we began to talk about our business differently and I want to reiterate that story. Flexible Generation and Energy Solutions is doing well and is already at the target level of GBP $250,000,000 of EBITDA on a pro form a basis. Speaker 100:03:51In Energy Solutions earlier this month, we agreed the sale of all of the residual SME meters, which will mean that that business will be based on I and C renewable and EV solutions. This has greatly simplified that business. The business is doing very well with good performance in I and C and we have learned important lessons from that simplification process. Our pellet production business has had a great year and we have confidence in the future, but but recognize we have work to do to deliver that target. The CFD bridge agreement for Drax Power Station gives us confidence that we can deliver between GBP 100,000,000 and GBP 200,000,000 of EBITDA during the bridge period. Speaker 100:04:35And I'll provide more details on that in a second. So again, across those three businesses, we're now targeting 600,000,000 to 700,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA after 2027. And again, I want to reemphasize that that target is stated before accounting for development expenditure for growth, which is the fourth column on that page. But we have attractive options, which we continue to believe offer significant opportunity for long term value creation. In our FlexGen business at the Drax Power Station which could accommodate both the data center and BEX, it's unique in The UK and having four gigawatts of grid access. Speaker 100:05:15And in the context of electrification and the rising demand for power as well as its importance for energy security, affordability and decarbonization, the so called energy trilemma. We're continuing to assess options to create long term value from the site. And of course, we're continuing to be very excited about the opportunities in global carbon removals which we will be executing through Elimini, our new carbon removals business. Onto Page six. The agreement of a heads of terms for a CFD supporting post-twenty twenty seven operations is a very positive step and an endorsement of the contribution that drives power station and biomass make towards energy security and decarbonization as well as being a value for money solution, saving bill payers billions over the term of the agreement. Speaker 100:06:11Under the agreement, we will sell the equivalent of about six terawatt hours ratably across the year to achieve the baseload reference price and receive or pay the difference between the baseload reference price and the CFD strike price, the so called hop up. In periods of high demand, we'll actually use all four units to produce and sell as much power as possible at higher peak prices. And in periods of lower demand, we'll add value by buying back power at lower off peak prices. By operating in this way, we will help support energy security, provide flexibility to the power system and earn a higher average price for power than the CFD strike price. We expect the system to become more volatile in the future as electricity demand increases and more intermittent capacity comes online. Speaker 100:07:06We're creating more opportunities for us to do more and to earn more. And we're planning to run some sessions for investors and analysts with our commercial team to help explain the mechanics of the agreement. The agreement also includes the continued evolution of sustainability standards and we're very supportive of that. There has been some suggestion that to meet supply chain emissions targets we would be required to buy more European versus U. S. Speaker 100:07:40Biomass. I want to be quite clear that that's not the case and wherever we source from we expect our supply chain to meet those emissions targets and we are confident that it will. Finally, just to describe a bit the process from here, we expect government to lay secondary legislation, a statutory instrument, before Parliament in the coming months, which will give them the power to award CFDs to biomass generators. And subsequently, the agreement will be subject to a subsidy control mechanism process. Turning to page seven. Speaker 100:08:19I'm sure you all have seen this but I just wanted to emphasize and highlight the recent launch of our new sustainability framework. This is a very important and large scale piece of work which supports our commitment to develop and enhance our approach to sustainability across the three pillars of client, nature and people. Please have a look at it. It includes substantial targets across those three areas and something that we're very committed to. And again, we plan to arrange sessions to run through this with analysts and investors. Speaker 200:08:52Now over to Andy. Thank you, Will, and good morning, everyone. Starting with the financial summary on Slide nine. Once again, we've delivered strong financial and operational performance. Adjusted EBITDA grew 5% to $1,064,000,000 reflecting a high level of renewable powered mineral systems support activity and an improvement in pellet production. Speaker 200:09:19Our balance sheet is strong. We ended the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.9 times. The business is generating significant cash from operations, which provides a strong foundation for investing in our core business and delivering attractive returns to shareholders. Cash generated from operations in the year was over $1,100,000,000 The board proposed a final dividend of 15.6p per share, bringing a full year dividend for 2024 to 26p per share, which is a year on year increase of over 12%. Last week, we published a company collected consensus for 2025. Speaker 200:10:00We are comfortable within the consensus range subject to continued good operational performance. Moving on to look at performance by business. In February of last year, we set out a target to deliver more than $500,000,000 an annum of post 27 recurring adjusted EBITDA from our Flex Gen and Energy Solutions and pellet production businesses. As Will has already noted, earlier this month, we agreed a non binding heads of terms for a CFD for Drax Power Station to operate between April 27 and March 31. Reflecting our expectations for that agreement, we're now targeting recurring post-twenty seven adjusted EBITDA in the range of $600,000,000 to $700,000,000 This excludes investment opportunities, which includes development expenditure and eliminate innovation and capital projects. Speaker 200:10:57Performance in pumped storage and hydro was underpinned by robust system support earnings. Our I and C Energy Solutions business continues to perform strongly. As well noted, the majority of the meter points in the SME business were sold in September 24 and last week we reached agreement for the sale of the remaining meter points. These will take effect from May of twenty twenty five, subject to regulatory approval. In pellet production, we increased volumes and margin and we delivered record levels of adjusted EBITDA. Speaker 200:11:32Strong performance in biomass generation reflects a 27% increase in renewable generation and the continuing role that Drak's power station plays in supporting The UK power system. On to Slide 11. We're continuing to target greater than $250,000,000 of post 2027 recurring adjusted EBITDA from FlexGen and Energy Solutions. And strong performance in 2024 is supportive of delivering that target. Our pumped storage and run of river hydro assets performed strongly with increased generation output compared to the prior period. Speaker 200:12:10Our assets are well placed to support the system and capture value when there's pronounced changes in system need and commodity prices like in the period between 2022 and 2023. Adjusted EBITDA in Energy Solutions of $51,000,000 included $81,000,000 of earnings from our INC business. Alongside supplying renewable energy, our INC business provides EV and other value added services such as asset optimization. These earnings reflect a consistent margin on contracted energy supply prices and we expect earnings from EV and other services to grow over time. In total, FlexGen and Energy Solutions delivered adjusted EBITDA of $188,000,000 So taken together with our target post 2027 earnings from our three new OCGTs of $50,000,000 and capacity market income from the Crookan Units 3 And 4 refurbishment of 15,000,000. Speaker 200:13:11The illustrative earnings increased to greater than $250,000,000. The 80,000,000 investment to refurbish and upgrade Units 3 And 4 at Crookan is on track. The project's underpinned by a fifteen year capacity market agreement worth over $220,000,000 and they'll add 40 megawatts of additional capacity by 2027 and improve unit operations. Our three new build OCGTs are expected to commission in 2025, whilst later than originally planned, primarily due to delays in grid connection by the relevant authorities. These OCGTs will provide combined capacity of 900 megawatts and be remunerated under fifteen year capacity market agreements worth over $250,000,000 And in addition, will earn revenues from peak power generation and system support services. Speaker 200:14:06We believe that retirement of older thermal generation assets and increased reliance on intermittent renewables together with an increase in power demand will drive a growing need for dispatchable power and system support services and that this creates long term earnings opportunity and value from the group's flexible generation assets. Onwards to slide 12. We've already secured capacity market agreements in the period to 02/1942 with a value of £600,000,000 This could grow to over £1,000,000,000 if on renewal we secure new capacity market agreements at an equivalent price to the twenty twenty four T minus four auction of £65 a kilowatt. These values are in 2024 money, so they're subject to indexation with UK CPI. So now looking at pellet production on Slide 13. Speaker 200:15:07Our pellet production business made strong progress in 2024 with improved operational performance and profitability. Production volumes increased to 4,000,000 tonnes, of which 2,400,000 tonnes were sold to Draught's power station. The margin achieved on O Niu supply better reflects the current market value of long term large scale supply. The margin achieved on our legacy third party contracts is lower. Combined with a reduced cost of production, the achieved EBITDA margin per tonne of production increased to And reflecting the above, adjusted EBITDA grew to $143,000,000 As Will noted earlier, we expect that own use volumes will average around 2,000,000 tons a year for the period of the CFD agreement for post-twenty seven operations. Speaker 200:16:00And this provides a strong underpin to delivery of our target earnings. Delivering that $250,000,000 target assumes that we will continue efforts to maximize production from our existing capacity and will drive operational efficiencies to our supply chain and that will include increased use of technology. Secondly, that we'll renew lower margin legacy third party contracts at improved pricing and or will secure sales to new markets, which includes SAC. Lastly, we'll add incremental capacity as the demand profile becomes clear. Hawkins right forecast show a greater than 30% increase in demand for biomass from 50,000,000 tonnes in 2024 to 65,000,000 tonnes by 02/1930. Speaker 200:16:51And this reflects markets such as SAF and BECS beginning to accelerate. We remain positive on the long term outlook. A lower requirement for third party supply of biomass for Drax post 2027 could lead to a supply demand imbalance in the medium term. But as a producer, a user and a seller of biomass, we believe that we're well placed to create value. We are developing a pipeline of sales opportunities for SAF, which we believe could be a major market opportunity for biomass pellets. Speaker 200:17:25During the year, we agreed heads of terms of Pathway Energy on a multiyear agreement that could see Drak supply 1,000,000 tons of biomass pellets each year for production of SAF at their proposed plant in Port Arthur, Texas. In the future, we could potentially supply two additional projects, delivering a further 2,000,000 tons of pellets per year to pathway sites through the 2030s. So now looking at slide 14. In 2024, Draught's power station generated over 5% of The UK's electricity, around 10% of its renewable power and on certain days over 50% at times of peak demand. Adjusted EBITDA of $814,000,000 was an increase of 16% compared to the prior period, and it reflects a higher level of renewable power generation and system support services in response to a greater system need. Speaker 200:18:21Drak's power station produced 14.6 terawatt hours of electricity, an increase of 27% from the prior period. Our RO units are fully hedged for 2025 and over 80% hedged in 2026. So in total, we have 20 terawatt hours locked in at an average price of over through Q1 twenty twenty seven. In addition, we expect the CFD unit to run at a high load factor for the coming years. These strong forward power hedges together with a 500,000,000.0 working capital benefit from the end of the RO scheme at Draught Power Station in 2027 underpin greater than GBP 1,000,000,000 of post tax operating cash flows in the period from 2025 to 2027. Speaker 200:19:11And that's prior to the commencement of the new low carbon dispatchable CFD agreement. So looking at the balance sheet on Slide 15. We maintain a strong focus on cash flow discipline and maintenance of a robust balance sheet. Available cash and committed undrawn facilities at the end of the year of $8.00 $6,000,000 provide substantial headroom over our short term liquidity requirements. During the year, we put in place over $700,000,000 of new debt maturing in 2017 to 2029 and we repaid over 900,000,000 of shorter dated maturities, significantly extending the group's average maturity profile beyond 2027. Speaker 200:19:55We have no significant near term maturities. Strong financial performance and cash generation is supportive of maintaining our credit ratings and during the second quarter, the group's issuer credit ratings were reaffirmed as BBB plus by Fitch and S and P and as BBB low by DBRS and that's with a stable outlook in each case. So moving on to slide 16 in capital investment. Our capital expenditure of $330,000,000 included $212,000,000 of growth expenditure and $83,000,000 on maintenance. The growth expenditure includes $90,000,000 for the OCGTs, over $60,000,000 for pellet production capacity mainly at the Longview site and 30 plus million for crew can units three and four expansion. Speaker 200:20:47As part of the continued investment to ensure good operational performance of our generation assets, a major planned outage on one unit at Drax Power Station was completed in August of twenty twenty four and the unit returned to service ahead of schedule. There are no major planned outages in 2025. We're expecting CapEx to be in the range of 180,000,000 to to $220,000,000 in 2025. So lastly, looking at capital allocation on Slide 17. We will remain disciplined on our capital allocation as we seek to maximize value. Speaker 200:21:24Our policy was launched in 2017 and it remains unchanged. It has four pillars. Firstly, balance sheet strength. We define this as maintaining our current credit ratings which we believe are consistent with our long term target of two times net debt to EBITDA ratio. Secondly, to invest in our core business. Speaker 200:21:44We continue to assess opportunities for the development of our portfolio and in addition to the group's options for increasing long duration storage of Krewkem, this could also include opportunities in other storage solutions like batteries, which could complement the range of services the FlexGen business can provide. Thirdly, a sustainable and growing dividend. The expected full year dividend is a 12.6% growth in dividend per share and over the last seven years since the policy commenced, dividend growth has averaged around 11%. Finally, we'll return surplus capital to shareholders. In August, we commenced the share buyback program for the purchase of up to 300,000,000 of Drak shares over a two year period. Speaker 200:22:30We are almost halfway through and have bought back over 23,000,000 shares and the third tranche will commence shortly. With that, we'll hand back to Mark. Speaker 100:22:40Thank you, Andy. And now I'm on Page 19. And I wanted to provide a bit more of a framework to describe how we're assessing our investment opportunities. First, it's important to realize that the energy transition is creating a wealth of short, medium and long term opportunities for investments that have the potential to deliver attractive returns and are also aligned with our capabilities, our purpose and our strategic objectives. We're also aware of the need to be focused, the need to manage risk, the need to prioritize the highest return and most immediate payback investments, especially given the increasing uncertainty we see not only in The UK but globally. Speaker 100:23:27So first, we're excited about our short term opportunities. As you know or as we've said several times already, we're in the middle of our GBP 300,000,000 share buyback and we continue to see a lot of value in our shares. In addition, we're making incremental investments in our pellet business to drive down cost and then our training capabilities to drive efficiency and more rapid decision making. We're commissioning the open cycles, the OCDTs, which we believe are now more important than ever as the value of flexibility increases. So I think about the medium term. Speaker 100:24:02A key investment thesis during my time at Drax is the growing value of flexibility, complementing intermittent renewables and inflexible nuclear. With the retirement of dispatchable fossil fuel plants and the deployment of more renewables and a structural increase in the demand for power, we're now seeing this play out. And we're leaning into this with a 40 megawatt expansion of Crooket, an 80,000,000 program that we expect will deliver an expected return in excess of 20%. And we also see more opportunity to develop and grow our portfolio of dispatchable assets in what we believe is an increasingly attractive market. We see grid connected batteries with two hours and more duration as a potentially attractive addition to our portfolio. Speaker 100:24:50And we'll look at both development and acquisition opportunities in that space. In pellets, we're continuing to develop the Longview project but we're also assessing the medium term supply demand dynamic associated with that project. I think longer term, our first long term priority is to create a definitive independent future for the Drakis Power Station beyond the CFD bridge. One option for that is a data center and I'll talk more about that in a minute. And beyond that, we're continuing to develop further growth options for Flexjet and carbon removals. Speaker 100:25:30We remain positive on the opportunities from FlexGen including the Kroukan two or the extension of Kroukan on BEX in The UK and globally, all of which we believe will be required to address the competing challenges of the energy trilemma. That being said, we expect to be quite judicious in the investments that we will make to maintain those options. And as we have always said, any investments in those longer term opportunities will be subject to the right long term framework and greater certainty. I'd like to add that the government's recent announcements of a review of greenhouse gas removal technologies as well as the direction of travel on the long duration storage cap and floor mechanism as well as the initial policy moves of the Trump administration all have increased the level of uncertainty. Just to reiterate that, of which we are very aware. Speaker 100:26:37That being said, we want to maintain these options and we will allocate capital to them when we're content with the risk return profile relative to the other opportunities which I've already just discussed. I would also say that to the extent we find other ways of advancing our strategy, carbon removals, FlexGen and pellets that have more certainty, less risk and more immediate cash flow generation. We are very much attracted to this. Fundamentally, all of this is underpinned by our capital allocation policy, which I believe we've executed with quite some discipline for quite some time. Moving on to page 20. Speaker 100:27:23I think the next couple of pages to talk about sort of how our portfolio aligns with some of the things that are happening in the marketplace. So decarbonization of the system by renewables is a success story and The UK has led the way. But of course it comes with its challenges and costs. More wind on the system drives intermittency and requires more active management, for tailing wind in certain periods and incentivizing thermal generation in others. This is increasing the cost of managing the system as well as the opportunity for us to play our part by delivering the services that the system needs. Speaker 100:27:58And this has been central to our strategy for a long time. And as you can see on this page, the data absolutely supports it. Over the last six years, we've seen a 50% increase in terawatt hours of wind generation, a 600% increase in the hours of negative pricing, a doubling of system costs as well as a doubling of pump storage activity. So we're increasingly confident in the value we can create from these opportunities and you can see that coming through in our reported numbers. Since 2019, our FlexGen and Energy Solutions business has delivered greater than $850,000,000 of EBITDA against capital investment of less than $200,000,000 over the same period. Speaker 100:28:44We're doing more across our portfolio of pumped storage, hydro, gas and biomass, which provide exposure to the drivers of value across the power system. On to Page 21. And we have exciting opportunities to grow this portfolio, incremental investment in the short and medium term. So So we have the 40 megawatt expansion of Krewkin, which I've talked about. We have the opportunity to invest in Krewkin's new, which I've also talked about. Speaker 100:29:12And batteries is the third area, which we've probably talked less about. But I want to talk a bit about it now, which we're also evaluating opportunity to expand the range of services we can provide, including batteries, which could be added relatively quickly, complementing the existing portfolio and allowing us to provide a full range of services to the grid across a wider technology base. And Thrust Batteries fits nicely into our portfolio. It gives us a short duration storage opportunity. It takes advantage of our strong trading and optimization characteristics and we think has nice synergies with the rest of our portfolio. Speaker 100:29:51Onto page 22. We've been looking at the opportunity to develop a data center for about a year now. And we think that our proposition of a large scale 20 fourseven renewable power, secure infrastructure, as well as proximity to the national fiber optic network is attractive. And we have a short list of developers we're talking to about the opportunity. We see this as beginning probably before 02/1930 with a 100 megawatt development, which ultimately could scale to 1.2 gigawatts as we go through the 2030s. Speaker 100:30:30And we can provide a long term behind the meter power source with an offtake agreement at the DAX power station. And it could also be complemented by BECCS. The two things are not mutually exclusive. Similarly, it also works with the post 2027 CFD agreements without the need for additional generation capacity to back up 100 megawatt data center. And even without the generation capacity from our biomass units, we want to emphasize the value that we have at the site. Speaker 100:30:59The grid access has value. And I note that Harworth, another site, recently agreed to sale of 48 acres of land with grid access to a data center developer for more than £100,000,000 which on a comparable pro form a basis would be more than £500,000,000 for two fifty acres of powered land at Drax. So we're working with developers now and we're targeting MOU and due diligence at some point later this year and we will update you as we have more news. Turning to page 23. We're continuing to target more than $250,000,000 in the long term for our pallet production business and we made good progress in 2024. Speaker 100:31:44We improved our output from 3.8 to 4,000,000 tons and we improved our margins. And the CFD agreement for the Drax Power Station is an important underpin and we're expecting to use about 2,000,000 tons from our U. S. Plants post 2027, again, in a price consistent with our target margin. But as we've set up already, we have work to do to deliver the rest of that target. Speaker 100:32:09We need to increase production from our existing capacity. We need to add incremental capacity as the demand profile becomes clear. And our Longview project is an interesting option for that. We need to renew the existing legacy contracts with aging customers at improved rates and or identify a pipeline for sales into new markets including sustainable aviation fuel or SAF. On top of these things, we expect to supplement them with efforts to drive operational improvements and efficiencies across our supply chain using AI and also other types of technology. Speaker 100:32:45For example, we're researching biomass chemistry and looking for ways to allow us to improve pellet quality while extracting sugars which could provide a secondary revenue stream from sales into a range of new markets including animal feeds and ethanol. So we remain positive on the long term outlook for pellet sales. But we do recognize that changes in demand from draft power stations post-twenty seven could lead to some supplydemand imbalance in the medium term. For the end, as Andy mentioned, as a producer, user and seller of biomass, we believe we're well positioned to create value that might come from any disruptions in the supply chain. On Page 24, let me talk a bit more about sustainable aviation fuels. Speaker 100:33:33So again, we're excited about the potential for this market as we are about BECCS. We think there's multiple new market opportunities for pellets. Specifically in the SAF world, by 02/1930, forecasters expect this could be about a 5,000,000,000 gallon market. That forecast is underpinned by mandates from The UK and The EU, plus targets in North America and Japan. And to give you a bit of context, that's less than 5% of the total markets for aviation fuels. Speaker 100:34:05If you think about that, what does that mean in terms of pellets? Well, 5,000,000,000 gallons would would be equivalent to more than 100,000,000 tons. It would take more than 100,000,000 tons of pellets to make 5,000,000,000 gallons of SAF. But let's be clear, we don't expect that all of that SAF will be made from pellets. In fact, maybe 5% or so or four to 5,000,000 tons of pellets would be used to make roughly 5% of that sap. Speaker 100:34:30With the rest of the feedstock coming from waste, fats and cooking oil. That's a sort of macro view. On a micro view or from our perspective, again, we have this heads of terms with Pathway for a million ton per year pellet contract that starts in 2019 for a plant in Texas. It's attractive to us because it's domestic to The U. S. Speaker 100:34:53It's close to our Drax assets, meaning a sure supply chain. And our deal with Pathway has the potential to add a couple of additional sites, meaning there could be about as many as 3,000,000 tons per annum in 2030s with that one customer. So as a reminder, our long term target for pellets production is 5,000,000 tons. So if you have 2,000,000 at Drax and 3,000,000 through SAF, it could be there even before you include additional European and Asian demand from other uses. Onto page 25 on Eliminate. Speaker 100:35:30So Eliminate, our carbon removals company has had a good year in '24. Launching, it was launched formally, a very exciting launch process in New York at Climate Week and we also established our headquarters in Texas. And we remain positive on the long term opportunity from carbon removals, but I'd like to emphasize that we think they are long term opportunities. The market for CDRs as you can see on the page is growing. It's predominantly based on BECCS, but it is still small relative to our large scale greenfield projects. Speaker 100:36:07And again, as I said before, we need to have the right regulation, commercial agreements and macro political environment in place before we commit capital. So our future development expenditure is likely to be slower than it has been. And in addition to looking at greenfield new build options, we're looking at ways of entering the market with lower risk, lower capital commitments and more immediate positive cash flow. So for example, we're looking at developing a carbon credit training desk which would allow us to access a wider range of products and revenues before 02/1930. We're also looking at other ways of developing CDRs, not just using BECCS. Speaker 100:36:49And I would say we're looking at these will be lower cost and again smaller capital investments. So we're not really looking at direct air capture if that's what you're thinking. But again, we remain very positive on the long term need for carbon removals and BECCS in The UK as well as globally. And as such, we continue a well progressed option for BECCS and BECCS power station, which we believe can be and should be an important component of the government's plans for net zero in the 2030s and beyond. But again, we require significantly more certainty before committing to capital. Speaker 100:37:22And as such, we look to the UK government to provide more clarity on the process from here to create the right investment framework to take these important infrastructure projects forward. So finally, on Page 26, we are delivering attractive returns for shareholders with strong operational performance, substantial dividend growth, disciplined capital allocation and a significant share buyback. We're also delivering for all stakeholders with opportunities aligned to energy security, affordability and decarbonization. We had a good year in 2024 providing good evidence of our attractive business model, providing support to The UK power system through FlexGen, Drax Power Station and the associated pellet supply chain. The heads of terms for CFD at the Drax Power Station is a very important inflection point. Speaker 100:38:16But again, a reminder, we still have work to do to convert that heads of terms into a firm contract. The post 2027 adjusted EBITDA target from FlexGen pellets in the Drax Power Station of 600,000,000 to £700,000,000 reflects growing confidence in our medium to long term outlook. And strong cash flow generation and attractive growth opportunities, we will approach those in a disciplined manner to maximize returns and minimize risk. So thank you for listening to that more lengthy than usual discussion and we look forward to taking any questions. Thank Operator00:39:11you. You. The first question is from Dominic Nash, Barclays. Please go ahead. Speaker 300:39:28Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your presentation and opportunity to ask a question. Can I say, first of all, you have got a lot of moving parts going on here like every single level? And clearly, I think there's going to be a lot of questions. So I'll limit to actually two, but the first one is a bit of a stream of consciousness one, I guess, which is, can we just start, first of all, with your biomass bridging mechanism? You're clearly going down to six terawatt hours. Speaker 300:40:01First of all, what's your expectation of extra terawatt hours above that six terawatt hours that you can operate on a merchant basis. And the next sort of link to that is clearly six terawatt hours is what 3,000,000 tonnes of biomass and you're coming I think burning about 7,000,000 tonnes. So I'm going to get I'm trying to get a feel for what your delta is in biomass production. And I know that you've said that two, three times on this call that there will be a short run sort of overhang of pellet oversupply as you maintain your 2,000,000 tonnes of self supply, therefore third parties get squeezed, which then leads on to the question second question then is when and how are you contracting for your pellets? And as we move into that short run overhang, are you going to be contracting with yourself at this sort of arm's length sort of market price that could be quite dampened if you end up with that overhang? Speaker 300:41:05And or have you actually put the contracts in place? Or do we have a risk that you're striking CFD sort of naked? And then sort of finally on that one, have I missed this? But I think you had an 8,000,000 tonne pellet ambition by 02/1930. I presume that, in light of this bridging mechanism and the time it is likely to be an ambition rather than a target maybe. Speaker 300:41:31So apologies, that's my first question. The second one hopefully Speaker 100:41:34will be a bit quicker, Speaker 300:41:36which is the BEX. It looks to me BEX is being dialed down. Clearly, you've got uncertainty as you pointed out with what's going on in The States of Trump. The UK government policy looks a little probably less supportive of carbon capture, but you're dialing up flexibility in data centers instead. One area of uncertainty that we're getting here is obviously Rhema and the zonal power pricing. Speaker 300:41:59Could you give us a flavor of what opportunities and or what impact that will have on your flexible generation capability, OCGTs, Kraken and your potential expansion in inflection? And do you have to wait until we get clarity on that before we get a sort of a view on what you're going to do? Thank you. Speaker 100:42:21Okay. I would say there's lots of moving parts in that question Dominic. So thank you for that. So just maybe I'll start with the bridge. So I guess the first thing I'd say is that the bridge has a cap and a floor of how much we will generate. Speaker 100:42:39That's the first thing. Sixty one hour thing in the cap, which I think is the probably the important question. In terms of some of the numbers we've been saying, I think when we get to 20, 27, the actual sort of number at that point in time, I think is gonna be about 170, right, for the actual level of the CFD. I think we're talking about biomass cost as being at about 130, if you wanted to sort of take a number out. So I guess the question really becomes how much, how often do you or we think the market will be, the power price will be above that 130, right, so that we could generate on a without a CFD to support the generation, right? Speaker 100:43:20We're not thinking of it as being a very big number given where power prices are today. We think there is some possibility there, but I would I would say it's, you know, it's it's it's not a big number of marginal at best. I would suggest I think it's probably a baseline number, right? I mean, as we've seen in the last few years, there's lots of things that can happen. So, that's sort of based on the world as we see it from today. Speaker 100:43:42So to do those six terawatt hours, it's again, it's about 3,000,000 tons of pellets. We're expecting to use about 2,000,000 of our own. The rest of the pellets that we have, we have effectively the the contracts we have into Asia effectively use pretty much the rest of the ones that we've got today, in terms of that sort of 4,500,000 tons. So that's, you know, I think our book is is well, for our production is is well sold, shall we say, right? In terms of the price at which we sell those pellets, you know, that has to be an arm's length price, for, you know, for reasons of transparency relative to the bridge, for reasons of tax reasons, etcetera. Speaker 100:44:23But again, that prices should also reflect the value of a long term contracted position. And that's true today and that will always be true. So your final question is a railway on the other billion tons. I mean, we've been planning for this as well. We were planning to make sure we have the ability to have knowable and firm prices beyond 2027 for some time. Speaker 100:44:45We do have some option agreements in place with some third party providers. So I would say we are comfortable that we have known costs. And if the market, if there's market opportunity to do better, we will take advantage of that. In terms of BECCS, I think what I would say is that the, if you take it maybe US and then The UK, I think we until this sort of current administration took office, I think our feeling had been that the IRA would likely stay in place. And given this sorry, I should say that the subsidy support for carbon capture that's embedded within the IRA, I. Speaker 100:45:32E. The 45 Q mechanism would continue on the basis that it's very supportive of investment and job growth in many red states. I think we would still believe that to be true. However, I think the other volatility that's been sort of, that we have seen as a result of what the Trump administration is doing, I think creates a lot more uncertainty than I probably was expecting, which is a bit of a surprise to me given I was expecting quite a bit. So I think we are quite a lot more cautious, as I think many market participants are on longer term large scale investments in renewable technologies in The US. Speaker 100:46:14That's a very significant issue. In terms of The UK, I guess I would say to be fair, I was not expecting a review of greenhouse gas removal technologies from the UK government to be announced at the same time as the bridge was announced. Right? I have had some discussions with government about that and I think it's, my sense is that they would like to make sure they're comfortable with the direction of travel on the policy, which is obviously clearly in their gift and something they need to be and need to do. But it does create again additional uncertainty. Speaker 100:46:46So in addition to needing to wait for the spending review, which we see in the summer, the sort of beginning of the track two process, which again we're expecting in the summer, we need to see the results of that review. So all of that for me is actually meaning that, you know, we are, as we have been and, you know, we didn't spend capital on UK VEX last year because we've been in this position for some time. So it's not in some ways a change of approach. It's just, I guess, the the uncertainty may be higher than we had thought it would be. On Rima, I think from my perspective, the, I guess there's two positions. Speaker 100:47:23First one is that any new investment, if we were planning any new development activity, I. E. New build, greenfield asset build, I think is significantly challenged by the uncertainty that has been created by the potential move to zonal pricing. That's true for, but to be fair, we really only have one sort of unstarted greenfield build project, which would be the expansion of Kruken. And there's lots of uncertainties around that as well. Speaker 100:47:55So that project is very much waiting for more certainty. And again, we'll probably update you to market sometime soon on where that sit sits because the capital floor again, we're analyzing it now, so we should have some more visibility on that. But again, there's still plenty of uncertainty around that one, right? But anything we might do in batteries, for example, I would expect us, I'd be more interested in sort of owning something that has a grid connection, has some known cash flows and actually building something new. And Rhema is one of the factors around that. Speaker 100:48:24Now how Rhema might impact our existing portfolio, open cycles, draft power station, etcetera, it's hard to know because we don't know what the zones are. We don't know what the pricing will be. And so that's something we are watching. And in fact, we don't know when it's gonna happen. So, I guess I guess the summary is that for existing assets, we'll have to see how it plays out. Speaker 100:48:42And for anything that we would be thinking about starting, we would have to have more certainty before doing so. Hope that answers your question, that might be. Speaker 300:48:50Yes. Apologies for the long questions and I appreciate your response. Can you just clarify though, will you be signing your pellet contracts for self supply at a different rate that potentially your third party suppliers may be offering you in light of the overhang? Speaker 100:49:10We will be signing prices that are fundamentally consistent with where the market is. Speaker 300:49:15Okay. Thank you very much. Operator00:49:19The next question from Pavan Mahbubani, JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Speaker 400:49:25Hi, team. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I've got two, please. So on the OCGTs, can we have an update on where we are in terms of the commissioning? And my follow-up there is how are you thinking about the OCGTs as part of your portfolio? Speaker 400:49:45Because before you've indicated that these could be assets that you would be willing to sell and in previous periods, you've said that it may not be consistent with the portfolio that you want to have towards the end of the decade or in the future. Sounds today like that's pain, but if you can give us an update on how you're thinking about that? And then my second question is thinking about capital allocation and leverage, you're still maintaining your two times net debt to EBITDA target, but it looks like you're quite significantly below, although it's true that your EBITDA number is going to be declining in the coming years versus the 24 basis. But how are you thinking about your headroom capital allocation as you come to the end of this share buyback program in the coming months or towards the end of the year? Are you thinking that you have the headroom to do more? Speaker 400:50:38Or can you talk about how much you're willing to spend on batteries just so we can get an indication of how you're seeing balance sheet headroom if you do see it the same way I'm indicating and how you think about splitting that? Thank you. Speaker 100:50:52Okay. I'm going to take the first one and I'm going to ask Andy to take the second one. So on the open cycles in terms of commissioning, we've got three sites as you know. I would say that, you know, they are they are very delayed, and they're very delayed, I think fundamentally because of, our ability to get national grid and the system operator to actually give us access to the grids and commission them. So that's something that's, we're we're working hard to get them, you know, to hopefully get cooperatively with them to get them to perform on what they need to do. Speaker 100:51:25So that's a I mean, and and we're quite disappointed in how that's gone. Right? I would say, I mean, for example, some of them are more than a year past when they were due to be commissioned. Right? And that's again because of access to the grid. Speaker 100:51:39But again, we expect to commission this year. You know, I would say hopefully one in the first half, probably the other two in the second half realistically. In terms of being part of their portfolio, I think the way I'm gonna think about it is that the, our purpose is to enable zero carbon lower cost energy future and that we think that peaking plants are part of that enabling, right? They enable the system to stay in balance when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. And so I think they fit into the portfolio. Speaker 100:52:05There is an important provider there which you will have seen in our sustainability framework that we have a commitment to being net zero ourselves by 02/1940. And so if we do keep them and again, if there's an attractive offer to buy them, that is consistent with our view of the expected returns, which again, as I've said before, we think the expectation has risen, not dropped. We will look at it, and we need to find a way to make sure that we are net zero by 2040 that's consistent with having them if they are still in our portfolio. Andy? Speaker 200:52:37Yeah. On the second question, Pavan, so we start with around a billion of net debt at the end of this year. And as you noted, to the extent that consensus exists for '27 now, it it's around 560,000,000. So on a two times basis, that's supportive of of the debt that we have today. Now clearly, we're gonna generate significant cash as we've noted in the period through '27, including the rock and line. Speaker 200:53:04But that will give us, you know, plenty of capacity to do anything as far as adding to, expanding our our portfolio. And then our capital allocation policy is is very clear, and we'll continue to be disciplined in how we apply that. So, you know, if there's surplus cash, then it's clear what we would, what we would consider, and we'll continue to do Speaker 400:53:29it. Thank you. Operator00:53:34The next question from Harrison Williams, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Speaker 500:53:40Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Two from me. First, just on the pellet guidance. So I think you achieved a margin this year of kind of 36 per tonne and you've reiterated the target to reach, I guess, 50 pounds per tonne. Speaker 500:53:57Can you give us some insight into how that will, I guess, develop between now and 2027? Should it be a gradual improvement? Or are you expecting to see more back end loaded? And I guess maybe another way of asking that question, at the end of the period, well, in 2028, I guess, how much of the five megatons you're expecting to produce will still be on legacy contracts that are suboptimal? So that's the first question. Speaker 500:54:23And the second question, as we think about your discussions with data centers, is it reasonable to use the CFD bridge as a reasonable pricing point? Or are there differences we should be considering in those negotiations? Thanks. Speaker 100:54:43Just maybe I understand the second question. So you're saying is the CFD strike price the right price to think of for the data center? Speaker 500:54:52Yeah. I mean, that is that sort of pricing point you'd be expecting to achieve or would you be expecting maybe something lower but much higher vol well, I guess you've given us the volumes. I guess, any further color in respect to that price point? Speaker 100:55:04So, first one, I'll ask Andy to come back on the first one in a sec, but I'll take the second one. I think the way that we need to think about the data center position is it needs to be so the behind the meter effectively opportunity means that you're not paying the third party charges and other grid charges that effectively one pays if it's a consumer of power through the grid, right? Now that's, you know, the significance that probably doubles more or less the cost of wholesale power. So effectively what we need to do is we need to basically price, we need to reach an agreement with the data center provider which is competitive with what they might be able to get through the grid. So I would think of it much more as a sort of commercial negotiation where we need to make sure we're providing an attractive option that's consistent with the other forms of power that a data center provider could access. Speaker 100:55:53So I think that's what I think about it. Hopefully that answers that one. And do you Speaker 200:55:56have any thoughts? Yes. So today, we have around 4,000,000 tons. And if you look at that, it's, Speaker 100:56:04you Speaker 200:56:04know, it's split reasonably evenly between the South Of The US and Canada. To get to 5,000,000 will increase output from our existing plants to 4,500,000 tons. And most of that expansion will come out of the the southern plants. And, and and we're making good progress there. We increased production this year, and we commissioned Aliceville expansion during the year, so we're on track to do more pellets out of the South this year than last. Speaker 200:56:34So the important thing is that those southern, pellets are, you know, will supply the the period post '27 now through '31, so that's a good underpin for those earnings. So the balance then of around 2,000,000 tons of our existing is what, sits out in these long term, agent legacy contracts. Around a million tons of those will come up for renewal over the next five years. So over that time, there'll be a chance to, improve the margins potentially. The last half a million is a long view pellet plant expansion, and, we will only sort of finalize and do that once we're clear on on on the offtake for those pellets. Speaker 200:57:18So, you know, I I think it's fair to say that the, that that that the improvement there is gonna be back end loaded because it's going to depend on one, the timing of finishing Longview and the repricing of those legacy contracts that come over the next five years. Speaker 500:57:37Very helpful. Thanks. Operator00:57:40The next question from Alex Wheeler, RBC. Please go ahead. Speaker 600:57:47Good morning. Two from me, please. Well, two and a small follow-up. First one is on is the view very much that you look to focus on the FlexGen business over the coming years? You've highlighted that you're already broadly there on the $250,000,000 EBITDA target for post 2027. Speaker 600:58:07But given that supply demand imbalance in the pellets that you talk about, which might create a little more uncertainty, is it in FlexGen where you may focus for potential additional investments in the shorter term? And then I guess my question there is, is it only batteries that is a potential new opportunity there or are there other areas you might be looking at? Second point is just a follow-up on Pavan's question as I don't know if I missed it. Do you have a rough guide to what the sort of battery investment numbers might be? And then finally, just on the data center point, I know that we're at a very early stage here. Speaker 600:58:46But beyond the MOU, if we think about the initial 100 megawatts by 02/1930, could you just give a sense of what the, I guess, the timings and the moving parts might look like beyond signing an MOU to the extent that you can? Thank you. Speaker 100:59:05Okay. So on the investment focus, I mean, I think if you go, I think the key thing from the investment focus is there are a couple of different points. One is that, you know, it's it is we're we're attracted to investments where there is sort of known cash flow in in in our core markets. Right? If there are those in the pellet space, for example, we'd be interested, but that would require something that has a known offtake. Speaker 100:59:33And there aren't I don't think there's lots of opportunities in that space. Right? So in the flex gen space, we have we are seeing opportunities in that space. I mean, I think, you know, if you think about our portfolio, pumped storage, hydro, open cycles, customers, when I say customers less likely we will invest more in in sort of acquisitions of customers, but in the other spaces, if there's opportunities that line up with where we are in our portfolio, including batteries, we would do that. In terms of quantums, I guess the only thing I would say is that the, I think given the nature of uncertainty in the world at large at the moment, we will sort of be prudent in the sort of the bite sizes or the size of bites we might take. Speaker 101:00:11That's quite important. So one of the things again, you know, earlier cash flows, shorter paybacks, you know, attractive returns, you know, less risk embedded in any one specific transaction. Right? In terms of was it like yeah. So the the data center in terms of the timing, I mean, I think the, maybe the hundred megawatt point is important because, you know, we could actually we believe we can actually deliver power to a hundred megawatt data center in a way that's consistent with the way the bridge is structured. Speaker 101:00:43If you go bigger than that, that becomes more challenging and we'd have to sort of figure out how to do that. In terms of the timing of when we think a data center could get up and running, you know, 100 megawatts is probably the way we think about what we might do in the twenties broadly speaking. Right? So, so again, I think, you know, it's it's very likely, again, given the time that these things take that the, that, you know, all of that will work out in a way that makes sense to have that hundred megawatts alongside the bridge. Right? Speaker 101:01:12In terms of the rest of the timing on it, I think it's too early to say, Alex. I mean, exactly where we are. It's still early stage in these discussions. And so, we really would hope to have something more we can tell you this year, but it's beyond that. It's, it's fine. Speaker 101:01:23I would say something in the twenties, but sort of back ended probably. And then as I said before, growth in the thirties. Did I answered all your questions there. Speaker 401:01:35Yeah, that's great. Thank you. Operator01:01:38Next question from Adam Forsyth, Longsberg Capital. Please go ahead. Speaker 101:01:51Adam, we're not hearing you if you're speaking. Speaker 701:01:55Sorry, can you hear me now? Yes. Yes. Hi, sorry about that. And then, yes, two questions. Speaker 701:02:02Just essentially both on really on the new running of the biomass units after 2027. First is any impact on the Energy Solutions business? Will you guidance appears to be broadly unchanged for that business, but it's wrapped in with FlexGen. But I just wonder any material change in how you do purchasing and how you sort of manage risk in that business given the change in the biomass units operating? And then secondly, your comments on batteries and the four gigawatts of grid connection at the Drax Biostation site. Speaker 701:02:37I mean, it's actually about 1.2, almost 1.3 if that is actually available right now on the two old coal units that are not running. But I wonder if that what we should be focused on or can you go beyond that and actually run batteries alongside the grid connection for those biomass units? Speaker 101:02:55So first on the CFD and how does it impact the Drak Senergy Solutions business, I think we don't expect it to have a significant impact on the way that business is run. In terms of batteries, I would say we're looking at development options, but we're also looking at acquisition options. So I would say that's probably the way that I would have both of those in your mind. And I think that's probably answers that question right now. Speaker 401:03:21Okay. Thanks. Operator01:03:25The next question is from Charles Schwabbe, HSBC. Please go ahead. Speaker 801:03:30Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. First one, just on the recruiting expansion. Speaker 801:03:37I know you mentioned this a bit earlier, but I mean, when do you think we might get some additional clarity on that? I know we're going to get a few announcements in government this half of the year. But if you could provide an indication maybe when you're thinking a potential FID is possible and if you're more or less confident of getting that project to the line compared to twelve months ago. And then second one, just a follow-up on the data centers. All those conversations you're having with developers, are they involved in using Drak's Power Station as is? Speaker 801:04:10Were there any that involving BECCS as well? Thank you. Speaker 101:04:16Good questions. So in terms of the Kroukan expansion, I would say, we are, I would say, in the middle of assessing the attractiveness of the cabin four regime, I would say, as well as both in general and both how it applies specifically to the project that we've got. And I would expect we should have more clarity on that in the first half of this year. Right? I would say by the by results at the middle of the year. Speaker 101:04:41Put it that way. Right? And if you ask me, am I more or less confident? I'd probably say I'm less confident than I would have been in twelve months ago. Right? Speaker 101:04:49And that's to be honest, it's probably a function of our first initial blush like to pick Kevin forward. It's also probably a function of the overall sort of attractiveness of the macro environment for long term investments of that scale. On the data centers, I think currently we are looking, you know, most of that is is looking at the draft power station pretty much as it is, and running it, you know, running it or using power from the draft power station as it is. That being said, I think there would be, we are we have had discussions with people sort of in a general sense about BECCS power and how that might be attractive for a data center. I mean, this is by way of interest. Speaker 101:05:28It's something that's very much part of the pathway project. So for making SAF. So I think BECCS power is a way of increasing the carbon sort of or decreasing the carbon intensity of what people are doing by adding the carbon removal is just absolutely something to be learned today. So, I think it's probably not part of the initial offering, but it could be part of that. It definitely is consistent with what we might do with a data center over time. Speaker 801:05:54Great. Thank you. Operator01:05:58There are no more questions from the phone at the moment. Speaker 101:06:02Okay. Shall we take a there's two questions I see on the webcast. Shall I read them off? So you said at the beginning of the call that under the new sustainability criteria, you won't be required to buy more pellets from Europe. Is that on an absolute basis or as a percentage of your new pellet consumption under the new CFD? Speaker 101:06:22So I guess the first thing I would say is the way to think about this is, you know, when a pellet is produced and is travels through the supply chain to the direct power station, there is a limit to how much greenhouse gas can be emitted through that whole process. And all the pellets that we would expect to procure that come out of North America, We believe and we know that those can be procured at levels that have, that are consistent with that greenhouse gas cap, right? So I guess in specific answer, there's no requirement to buy more pellets from Europe and there's no limit or sort of there's no effective limit on what we can get out of North America based on that greenhouse gas emissions cap. Hope that answers that one. The c your second question from Martin Young. Speaker 101:07:14The first one was from Hugo Lehigh. Second one from Martin Young. The CP 02/1930 report points to considerable new generation being needed and there is a need to move at pace. I couldn't agree more. Engineered removals are part of the Climate Change Committee's seventh carbon budget. Speaker 101:07:34Correct? The policy progress is somewhat glacial. That's your term, Martin. Rima being a case in point, not helped by the zonal fight. Appreciate that Drax is likely to be less likely impacted by zonal, but interested in your view on zonals, yes or no, given your position. Speaker 101:07:54So I guess my view on zonal is that I think it's, I think that the the sort of the that's right. We did it. The conceptual economic rationale or the idea that, it, you know, it makes sense to have, you know, prices be lower where there's more supply than demand and prices to be higher in the situation which is the reverse. I can understand that logic, right? The challenge I think with Rima is twofold. Speaker 101:08:21One is the, the timing of the whole thing. Right? So one is that the uncertainty created by not knowing if and when it's going to happen and what the impact will be. So for new investment, I think it's quite a dampening impact. And as I mentioned before, Martin, that's not something that is impacting us so much at the moment, but, you know, as we think about things like the proof and expansion or we think about, you know, anything that we might do on a new bill front and as you know, our portfolio, there's nothing else significant on the new bill front there at the moment, that's definitely a consideration. Speaker 101:08:53And I know from talks with my peers around the industry that people who are working on large scale projects in all the different spaces, it's a very big issue for that. The second point for me is that even if there is logic to that, the question for me then becomes, how does, you know, can demand actually react to those signals, right? So, you know, things like a data center, you know, placing them near an offshore wind farm because the prices are lower. There's lots of other issues associated with where you would put a data center. So I think there's it's definitely a complex question, right? Speaker 101:09:27So I think it's a real substantial trade off between the benefits of actually certainty and knowing where you're going relative to the potential and potentially real economic benefits of having general pricing. I don't know if that's happened. It's probably a bit of a fudged answer, but hopefully that gives you a bit of context. Are there any more questions from the teleconference? There are Operator01:09:58no more questions from the telephone. Speaker 101:10:00Fine. And there's no more questions from the webcast. So thank you all for listening. I'm sort of, I guess, the one comment that stuck with me was yours, Dominic, in the very beginning, and there's been lots of moving parts. But I think, if I can go back and sort of, how would I sort of explain that? Speaker 101:10:17I think the if one thinks about the core business, I think the parts are becoming are moving less, maybe, if that's Speaker 401:10:26fair point. Speaker 101:10:27You know, I think the flex gen business is what it is and has been for some time. The pellet business, I think, is on a trajectory that's consistent with what our targets are and I think that hopefully that that's becoming more clear. Granted, I understand the CFD absolutely needs to be understood as a complex instrument. So we will spend time with everybody to make sure we do our best to help explain that. And then if I were to summarize briefly our sort of I think it is a change in our investment approach. Speaker 101:10:57It's very much more a function of, you know, as a result of greater uncertainty, higher cost of capital, you know, a bit less enthusiasm from governments and maybe from corporates in sort of committing their own capital to sort of green investments. You know, we're adapting accordingly. I know we're looking for things that we can invest, but we expect to be a couple billion pounds of available cash over the next half a decade, in things that give us immediate returns that are attractive and have the right risk return profile. And we think there are lots of interesting ways of doing that. So, hopefully that's well. Speaker 101:11:32Hopefully that summarizes it briefly where we are and I thank you all for listening and look forward to catching up over the next day's weeks. I think we have breakfast with many of you tomorrow. Thank you.Read morePowered by