American Financial Group Q4 2024 Earnings Report

American Financial Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $3.12
• Consensus EPS: $3.15
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.03
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

American Financial Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: $2.04 billion
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

American Financial Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2024
• Date: 2/4/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, February 5, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 11:30AM ET

American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG), an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. It sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. The company was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

American Financial Group Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to American Financial Group twenty twenty four Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, we'll have a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

[Operator]

I would now like to turn the conference over to Diane Weidner. Please go ahead.

[Diane Weidner, Vice President-Investor Relations at American Financial Group]

Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings results conference call. We released our twenty twenty four fourth quarter and full year results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call. I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, co CEOs of American Financial Group and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO.

[Diane Weidner, Vice President-Investor Relations at American Financial Group]

Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on Slide two of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website. We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions.

[Diane Weidner, Vice President-Investor Relations at American Financial Group]

A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy. And as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements. Now, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Good morning.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

As we begin our remarks, it's important to acknowledge that our thoughts and prayers continue to include those who have been impacted by the devastation caused by the wildfires in Southern California. We're grateful to our claims professionals and insurance specialists who are helping our policyholders recover, restore their businesses and rebuild their communities. Now turning to our results, I'll begin by sharing a few highlights of AFG's twenty twenty four fourth quarter and full year results after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q and A where Craig, Brian and I will be happy to respond to your questions. The fourth quarter was a strong ending to a great year for AFG.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

In addition to producing an annual core operating return on equity in excess of 19% in 2024, net written premiums grew by 7% during the year and we continue to create value for our shareholders through effective capital management. Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy and an astute team of in house investment professionals collectively have enabled us to outperform many of our peers over time. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results. And I'll turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of these details.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Thanks, Carl. As you'll see on Slide three, AFG's core net operating earnings were $10.75 per share for the full year 2024 generating a core operating return on equity of 19.3%. This ROE is calculated using an average of the five most recent quarter end balances of shareholders equity excluding AOCI. As Carl noted, capital management is one of our highest priorities. Returning capital to our shareholders is an important component of our capital management strategy and reflects our strong financial position and our confidence in AFG's financial future.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

We returned $791,000,000 to shareholders during 2024, including $545,000,000 or $6.5 per share in special dividends and $246,000,000 in regular common stock dividends. Dividend payments and share repurchases totaled 6,300,000,000 over the last five years, including $50 per share in special dividends since the beginning of 2021. And our quarterly dividend was increased by 12.7% to an annual rate of $3.2 per share beginning in October of twenty twenty four. Growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 19.6% in 2024. We're proud of the value we've created for shareholders over time.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

As Carl noted, we closed out the year with a strong fourth quarter. As you'll see on Slides four and five, fourth quarter 20 20 four core net operating earnings per share of $3.12 produced an annualized fourth quarter core return on equity of 21.9%. Now, I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance and financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity. The details surrounding our $15,900,000,000 investment portfolio are presented on Slide six and seven. Looking at results for the fourth quarter, property and casualty net investment income was approximately 21% higher than the comparable 2023 period as a result of improved returns on alternative investments and the impact of strong reinvestment rate opportunities and higher balances of invested assets.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

For the twelve months ended 12/31/2024, P and C net investment income was $784,000,000 approximately 8% higher than 2023 and a new record for AFG. Excluding alternative investments, net investment income at our P and C insurance operations for 2024 increased 11% year over year. As you'll see on Slide seven, approximately 66% of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturities securities at yields of approximately 5.75%. Current reinvestment rates compare favorably to the 5% yield earned on fixed maturities in our P and C portfolio during the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

The duration of our P and C fixed maturity portfolio including cash and cash equivalents was two point eight years at 12/31/2024. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P and C portfolio was approximately 4.9 for the twenty twenty four fourth quarter compared to 0.8% for the prior year quarter. Our business plan for 2025 assumes an 8% return on alternative investments. Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our alternative investment portfolio with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better. Please turn to Slide eight, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at 12/31/2024.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

During the quarter, we returned $4.00 $4,000,000 to our shareholders through the payment of a $4 per share special dividend in November and our regular $0.8 per share quarterly dividend. AFG ended the year in a strong capital position and we expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital in 2025, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends or share repurchases. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment, including the timing and amount of special dividends on a quarterly basis. Our current capital position and expectations give us the flexibility to pay a special dividend in the first half of the year. We continue to view total value creation as measured by growth in book value per share plus dividends is an important measure of performance over the long term.

[Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

For the three and twelve months ended 12/31/2024, AFG's growth in book value per share excluding AOCI plus dividends was 5.419.6% respectively. Our strong operating results coupled with effective capital management and our entrepreneurial opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P and C operations and our business plan assumptions for 2025.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to not pages Slides nine and ten of the webcast, which include an overview of our fourth quarter results. Our Property and Transportation, Specialty Casualty and Specialty Financial groups, as well as AFG Overall, reported fourth quarter calendar year combined ratios below 90%. In addition to these strong underwriting margins, we're finding opportunities to grow through new business opportunities, a continued favorable pricing environment and increased exposures. Nearly all the businesses in our diversified specialty property and casualty portfolio continue to meet or exceed targeted returns and we set new records for premium production in 2024.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

As you'll see on Slide nine, our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses reported a strong finish to a successful year with an overall 89 combined ratio in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, albeit 1.3 points higher than the 87.7 reported in the prior year fourth quarter. Results for the twenty twenty four fourth quarter include 1.1 points of catastrophe losses, primarily the result of Hurricane Milton compared to 1.4 points in the twenty twenty three fourth quarter and 1.8 points of adverse prior year development, compared to 3.3 points of favorable prior year development in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. We are pleased to report $70,000,000 in overall favorable prior year reserve development in our specialty P and C businesses for the full year. Adverse prior year development and some of the social inflation exposed businesses within our specialty casualty group led to the overall adverse development in the fourth quarter for that group and for AFG overall. This reserve strengthening is consistent with the commentary we've shared throughout 2024.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

We continue to have a good amount of favorable development from our workers' compensation businesses in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. Adverse development reflects higher than previously The adverse development reflects higher than previously anticipated severity across several accident years. For the full year 2024, the casualty group reported $10,000,000 on net favorable prior year development as net favorable development from our workers' comp businesses was substantially offset by adverse development in our social inflation exposed umbrella and excess liability and social services businesses. This was primarily due to higher than previously anticipated severity across several accident years. We continue to feel confident in the strength of our reserves and remain relentless in our focus on rate adequacy.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Our insurance professionals are working collaboratively across our own operations and across the industry to address this. I'm pleased that despite the adverse development, the businesses in our Specialty Casualty group were boarded a combined ratio below 90 for the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2024. For this group of long tail lines of business that equates to a return on equity of around 30%. So overall, this is an enviable result given the pressures of social inflation on some of these businesses. Fourth quarter twenty twenty four gross and net written premiums were up 31% respectively, when compared to the same period in 2023.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Gross and net written premiums increased 97%, respectively, for the full year in 2024. Average renewal pricing across our property and casualty group excluding our workers' comp business was up 8% in the fourth quarter and up 7% approximately overall. Both measures were in line with renewal rates in the previous quarter. We've reported overall renewal rate increases for thirty four consecutive quarters and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns. Now I'd like to turn to Slide 10 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. The businesses in the Property and Transportation group achieved a strong 89.2 calendar year combined ratio over on the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, an improvement of 1.1 points over the 90.3 reported in the comparable 2023 period. The improvement was attributable to higher year over year underwriting profitability in our crop insurance operations. Coming into the fourth quarter, we were optimistic about the potential for an above average crop year in 2024. While decreases in commodity prices throughout the growing season were generally within insureds deductibles, the impact of abnormally dry conditions in certain states reduced yields, particularly soybean yields from what industry models were projecting and this resulted in an average crop year for AFG.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Fourth quarter twenty twenty four gross and net written premiums in this group were both down 6% from the comparable prior year period. The decrease was primarily due to the impact of lower year over year commodity pricing on winter wheat premiums, coupled with elevated pricing competition and the non renewal of certain underperforming accounts in our transportation businesses. Overall renewal rates in this group increased 7% on average in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, in line with pricing, the previous quarter. Pricing for the full year for this group was up 8% overall. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto line of business, where rates were up approximately 20% in the fourth quarter.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

This is our thirteenth year of rate increases in this line. The businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a very strong 89 calendar year combined ratio overall in the fourth quarter, '4 point '4 points higher than the excellent 84.6% reported in the comparable period in 2023. Higher year over year underwriting profits in our targeted markets business were more than offset by lower underwriting profit in our excess liability, workers' compensation and executive liability businesses. Underwriting profitability in our workers' compensation and executive liability businesses continues to be excellent despite the lower year over year profitability in these businesses. Fourth quarter twenty twenty four gross and net written premiums increased 54% respectively when compared to the same prior year period.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Primary drivers of growth were new business opportunities and favorable renewal pricing in several of our targeted marketed businesses and our excess and surplus lines business. Our mergers and acquisition business also increase in M and A activity. This growth was tempered by lower year over year workers' compensation premiums. Excluding workers' comp, fourth quarter gross and net written premiums in this group both grew 8% year over year. Excluding our workers' comp businesses, renewal rates for this group were approximately up 11% in the fourth quarter, an improvement of about a point from the previous quarter.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Pricing in this group, including workers' comp was up 8% in line with the third quarter. For the full year pricing in this group, excluding comp was 9%. I'm pleased that we continue to achieve renewal rate increases of 10% or better during the quarter in several of our social inflation exposed businesses, including our social services, excess liability and public entity businesses. Specialty Financial Group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported an outstanding 80.7% combined ratio for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, an improvement of 0.6% over the prior year period. Fourth quarter twenty twenty four gross and net rent premiums were up 1112% respectively when compared to the prior year period due primarily to the growth in our financial institutions business.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Renewal pricing in this group was up 3% in the fourth quarter and up 6% for the full year. Now as we look to 2025, in lieu of providing formal earnings guidance, we provided several key assumptions underlying our 2025 business plan, which you'll see summarized on Slide 11. These assumptions for 2025 include growth in net written premiums of 5% from $7,100,000,000 reported last year, a combined ratio of approximately 92.5%, a reinvestment rate of approximately 5.75% and an annual return of approximately 8% on our $2,700,000,000 portfolio of alternative investments. We expect that performance in line with these assumptions would result in core net operating earnings per share of approximately $10.5 in 2025 and generate a core operating return on equity excluding AOCI of approximately 18%. Our estimate for losses related to the Southern California wildfires based on what we know currently is $60,000,000 to $70,000,000 acknowledging that this remains a developing situation.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

This range is embedded in our 2025 assumptions. The combined ratio of 92.5% included in our 2025 business plan compared to the 91.2% achieved in 2024 reflects anticipated improved loss experience in our social inflation exposed businesses, optimism for the potential overall company for net favorable reserve development in the overall company, which we expect to be substantially offset by lower, but still strong workers' comp profitability and higher catastrophe losses, primarily due to the California wildfires. Growth in certain product offerings that pay higher broker commissions and modestly lower ceding commissions from certain reinsurers are expected to elevate the expense ratio in 2025 relative to 2024 also. We believe that the combination of our reserve strength, the continued healthy rate environment, prudent growth and the ability to invest at a rate that exceeds our current portfolio yield positions us well for continued strong results in 2025 and beyond. Craig and I are pleased to report these exceptionally strong results for the fourth quarter and full year.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

We're proud of our proven track record of long term value creation. Our insurance professionals have exercised their specialty P and C knowledge and experience to skillfully navigate the marketplace and our in house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $15,900,000,000 investment portfolio. We look forward to continuing to build long term value for our shareholders in 2025 and beyond. We'll now open the lines for Q and A portion of our call today. Craig, Brian and I'd be happy to respond to your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. The first question that we have today will be coming from Gregory Peters of Raymond James. Your line is open.

[Gregory Peters, Managing Director - Equity Research at Raymond James Financial]

Good morning, everyone. I guess, I'd like to just start with a question on your disclosure around the California wildfires. Maybe you can give us a sense of where the losses are coming from for you. Is this within the specialty financial business and financial institutions? Is it property the property side and the property transportation business?

[Gregory Peters, Managing Director - Equity Research at Raymond James Financial]

Just give us some added color in the type of exposures that resulted in the $60,000,000 to $70,000,000 estimated loss?

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Yes. Greg, it come from our property oriented businesses. The lender placed property, sure, that will have losses there. Things like property in the marine, our nonprofit business, our businesses that have property exposures in California would be the exposed businesses generally.

[Gregory Peters, Managing Director - Equity Research at Raymond James Financial]

Okay.

[Gregory Peters, Managing Director - Equity Research at Raymond James Financial]

And then you mentioned in your comments about some expense ratio pressures. Wondering if you could just revisit those comments and just give us a little extra detail about the lines of business that are driving the higher expense ratio, maybe it's surety related, I'm not sure, but maybe if you could just give us some color, that'd be helpful.

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

Hi, Greg. This is Brian. So when we're looking at our business opportunities, we're always looking at things from an overall return perspective. So not just the loss ratio or the expense ratio in isolation, but also the investment income opportunity. So in some cases, if we're growing a business, for example, our financial institutions business that runs at a higher commission ratio than, say, our workers' comp business that runs lower, that can impact the ratio.

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

So when you look at the businesses, it's really smattering across the board of businesses where when we look at the overall economics of the transaction paying a higher commission makes sense.

[Gregory Peters, Managing Director - Equity Research at Raymond James Financial]

Got it. Well, congratulations on the year and thanks for answering my questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for the next question. And our next question will be coming from the line of John Newsome of Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

[Jon Paul Newsome, Managing Director at Piper Sandler Companies]

Good morning. I just wanted to see if you can use a little bit more color on the cashier reserve development in the quarter. In particular, I'm curious what's underneath some of the excess pieces. Is it general liability under there? Is it commercial auto that seem to be kind of the hot button areas industry wide that have had some issues?

[Jon Paul Newsome, Managing Director at Piper Sandler Companies]

Just sort of what we can think about sort of what the sources of those trends underlying basis might be?

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Yes. Predominantly, the adverse developments coming from an excess liability writing unit of ours that focuses on kind of the Fortune 500, Fortune 1,000 larger entities. Our other excess liability entity, the profitability is very good in that. So it's really focused on kind of on one of our business units focused on a larger companies.

[Jon Paul Newsome, Managing Director at Piper Sandler Companies]

That makes sense. That's interesting. And also thinking about that, maybe kind of a philosophical thoughts on how you think about taking or reacting to trend line in these kind of issues. It looks like you're kind of taking a little bit every quarter kind of thing approach. But I'm curious if there's sort of anything that triggers a more aggressive or a less aggressive approach to reserves when you're thinking about changing trend?

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Yes. Brian, you can weigh in also. But again, historically, we look at every one of our businesses, both from a reserving actuarially quarter by quarter, and that and we look for trends, the loss ratio trends. If we see changes in loss ratio trends, then that impacts our decision on reserving. This quarter, we reacted to the facts that were before us and kind of particularly around one of the businesses, the Fortune $500,000 excess liability business in that.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

So we try to be prudent and really look at all of our businesses every quarter in that. Prime So to add

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

to that, so when we're looking at our businesses, for example, in the business that Carl mentioned, the Fortune 500 excess business and across all our businesses, when we're looking at that each quarter, we're reacting to increased severity in the older years. So we're seeing actual increased severity in the years, say, 2019 and before, but then also acknowledging that that trend would continue and adjusting our loss picks in the later years even though we haven't experienced that yet. So we're trying to react across all years to the information that we see each quarter. So it's we're not even though it sounds like maybe you're saying we're taking a little each quarter, we really are taking a holistic approach and attempting to get to the best place based on what we know at the time each review.

[Jon Paul Newsome, Managing Director at Piper Sandler Companies]

Great. Thank you very much. Appreciate the help as always.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our next question is coming from the line of Andrew Anderson of Jefferies. Your line is open.

[Andrew Andersen, Equity Research Vice President at Jefferies Financial Group]

Hey, good morning. Just wanted to go back to the 92.5% combined ratio guide for 2025%. And I guess it would be an expectation of average crop, which was the case in 2024. But if we also maybe strip out the California wildfires as part of the guide, it sounds like you're booking to a higher workers' comp loss ratio next year. I guess one is, is that the case?

[Andrew Andersen, Equity Research Vice President at Jefferies Financial Group]

And two, are you also booking to a higher casualty loss ratio in 2025?

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

So without going into too much detail unit by business unit, what I would say is you said that correctly. So we have an average crop year in 2024 and would embedded in our plan would be an average crop year in 2025. We do have the higher cat exposure from the California wildfires in there. And then when you look at the workers' comp overall through accident ear picks and sort of tempered view of the potential for favorable development, we will have a higher pick in workers' comp. So you're correct there too.

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

But what's offsetting that is in the other casualty businesses, in our social inflation exposed businesses, where we've been taking underwriting actions, whether it's rate increases or moving up higher in the tower, or non renewing underperforming accounts, all of those things, we're expecting our loss ratio outside of the cats and the workers' comp to be better. So we're seeing improvement in our loss ratio outside of workers' comp and the catastrophes overall. Okay. And then on the expense ratio side, that's more of the driver of the increase. And again, that is a lot of that is mix of business and then to a lesser extent, the ceding commissions from reinsurers, which are still good ceding commissions, just not as high as they have been kind of for the same reasons as we're seeing the adverse development.

[Andrew Andersen, Equity Research Vice President at Jefferies Financial Group]

Okay. Thank you for the detail there. Maybe on specialty casualty, some good rate in the quarter, 11% and seems like it's been accelerating throughout the year. And recognizing there's a 5% consolidated guide, but how should we think about maybe specialty casualty here? Could growth pick up a little bit just given where the rate level is or are you more focused on maintaining margins here?

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Well, excluding workers' comp, I think we are growing kind of high single digit, which I think is solid. I think at some point here, we could get helped also by workers' comp pricing kind of bottoming out. In California, I think our pricing has increased a little bit. And in our Summit business in that, after churning a 15% rate decline in January, I think this year, I think it's like a percent change. So I think that may help us on the workers' comp side also.

[Andrew Andersen, Equity Research Vice President at Jefferies Financial Group]

Great. Thank you for the color.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment. And our next question will be coming from the line of Michael Zumradski of BMO. Your line is open.

[Analyst]

Hi, this is Dan on for Mike. Maybe just going back to the specialty casualty underlying improvement year over year, just to clarify. So is the improvement there coming from moving up in the tower in terms of condition changes? And then maybe just what inning would you say you are for the underwriting actions there? Thanks.

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

So we've also been getting good price increases there as well. So between the price increases, the underwriting actions and the moving up in the tower, all of that helps to improve our expectations around profitability from those business units. We're keeping an eye on those things going forward. So and we'll be careful in our picks to be not reflect any kind of favorable impact till we actually see it. So, we hope that we'll be conservative in our picks just because we're hoping to see those things come through.

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

But ultimately, we're looking at improvement there from those things.

[Analyst]

Thanks. And then maybe just going back to the crop that changed and how you're viewing that year, just how that maybe you could size up the impact of how that changed your '25 guides and specifically the releases from the '24 accident year?

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Yes, I think you really you were still continuing to settle claims, some claims also in crop from last year also. So I think the big change was really around a few states like Ohio and Minnesota, where the soybean yields were substantially different than what the industry was modeling and what we were modeling in that. The corn prices and soybean prices were down, I think, 1113% or something like that for corn and soybeans. That was because our average deductible of farmers is about 22%. I think as we were in the summer and in the fall, reflecting on that, we felt very optimistic.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

We were headed towards a better year. I think that it's the yield variability state by state that you don't know about until you actually get the claims and you settle them. So I think that was probably the biggest difference that's really happened through year end and early on this year.

[Operator]

And our next question will be coming from the line of Meyer Shields, Uffkase, Brooket and Woods. Your line is open.

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

Great. Thanks so much.

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

I want to go back

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

to Brian's comments earlier where you talked about sort of extrapolating worst severity from older accident years to more recent accident years. And I guess, obviously, we look at things on a high level in the reported financials, but it doesn't seem like we're seeing that level of increased severity baked into specialty casualty. And I was hoping you could walk through the offsets there?

[Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO at American Financial Group]

So I think if I'm understanding your question, so in the casualty, so as we business for example, business we wrote in 2023 would have started off at a loss pick based on our experience through that date. So as we're getting iterative experience, we are reacting to that in our later years. The reason why it may not be that impactful is because it's being positive things we're doing on the other end of the year. So the underlying actions we're taking would cause you to think we should have a lower loss pick than we actually have, but that's because of the that's because of the offsetting impact of this increased severity and us picking up some of those more recent accident year loss picks based on that experience.

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

Okay, perfect. That's helpful.

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

And I was hoping when you turn

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

to commercial auto because in general, it's a line that seems to face some social inflation. And again, you didn't mention any particular problems now. So if you can just give us an update of where the I'll call it, the transportation book is in terms of targeted profitability?

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Yes, I think really, when you look at our overall commercial auto business overall on a we're making a small accident year and calendar year underwriting profit in commercial auto overall with a solid return on equity, a small underwriting loss in commercial auto liability. And as I've mentioned in previous calls, we're working hard to get that to an underwriting profit in that. Our transportation business is right workers' comp also. And when you add the comp, we're making very solid underwriting profits and really solid good returns on equity. But just focused on commercial auto, we want to get to an underwriting profit in commercial auto liability and a stronger ROE and stronger overall commercial auto underwriting profit.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

As I mentioned in the call, we got 20% in price increase in the fourth quarter in commercial auto liability. That was about 16% during the whole year. That's pretty strong. So I think between that and since 70% of our businesses, National Interstate is in alternative vehicles, we're also have the ability to increase the captive retentions, if it makes sense in certain captives and change our share premium. So we're doing all of those things in order to achieve an underwriting profit and commercial auto liability in that.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Clearly, commercial auto liability for the industry and us is one of the areas that's impacted on social inflation on that particular commercial auto liability part of that with prior the industry seeing 10% plus loss ratio trends in that. I think for the whole year we grew about mid single digit in that. We write some large accounts in the fourth quarter. We weren't because of our focus on price and terms in that, we lost some large accounts. So that had some impact on the business.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Though overall for the year, again, we grew mid single digits. So that I mean, we're focused on margin improvement in this business in that. So obviously, other a few other competitors took some large accounts and I don't know if maybe it may be non intelligent competition versus more competition. I don't know. We specialize in this business.

[Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director at American Financial Group]

Again, we're overall in commercial auto, we're at solid returns and small underwriting profits. Our guys would tell me that's probably about five points plus better than our competitors. So I'm very pleased with how we're positioned and who knows, maybe as others come to grips and trying to improve this business as a part of their portfolios, it will provide some more growth opportunities for us.

[Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)]

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

[Operator]

Thank you. And that does conclude today's Q and A session. I would like to go ahead and turn the call back over to Diane for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

[Diane Weidner, Vice President-Investor Relations at American Financial Group]

Thank you. And thank you all for participating this morning and for the great discussion. We look forward to talking with you all again next quarter.

[Operator]

Thank you all for joining today's conference call. This does conclude today's meeting. You may all disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Diane Weidner, Vice President-Investor Relations
• Carl Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director
• Craig Lindner, Co-President, Co-CEO & Director
• Brian Hertzman, Senior VP & CFO

Analysts

• Gregory Peters, Managing Director - Equity Research at Raymond James Financial
• Jon Paul Newsome, Managing Director at Piper Sandler Companies
• Andrew Andersen, Equity Research Vice President at Jefferies Financial Group
• Analyst
• Meyer Shields, Managing Director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)