Xylem Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Welcome to Xylem's 4th-Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then to. Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Keith Butner, Vice-President of Investor Relations and SP&A. Please go-ahead.

Keith Buettner
Investor Relations at Xylem

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Xylem's 4th-quarter 2024 earnings call. With me today are Chief Executive Officer, Matthew Pine; and Chief Financial Officer, Bill Grogan. They will provide their perspective on Xylem's 4th-quarter and full-year 2024 results and discuss the first-quarter and full-year 2025 outlook. Following our prepared remarks, we will address questions related to the information covered on the call. I'll ask that you please keep to one question and a follow-up and then return to the queue. As a reminder, this call and our webcast are accompanied by slide presentation available in the Investors section of our website. A replay of today's call will be available until midnight, February 18 and will be available for playback via the Investors section of our website under the heading Investor Events.

Please turn to Slide 2. We will make some forward-looking statements on today's call, including references to future events or developments that we anticipate will or may occur in the future. These statements are subject to future risks and uncertainties, such as those factors described in Xylem's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in subsequent reports filed with the SEC. Please note, note the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements publicly to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

And actual events or results could differ materially from those anticipated. Please turn to Slide 3. We have provided you with a summary of key performance metrics, including both GAAP and non-GAAP metrics, with references to the prior year segment metrics being made on a comparative basis, reflecting the change in segments as of the beginning of the year. For the purposes of today's call, all references will be on an organic and/or adjusted basis unless otherwise indicated and non-GAAP financials have been reconciled for you and are included in the appendix section of the presentation.

Now please turn to Slide 4, and I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Matthew Pine.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Thank you, Keith. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The results we released earlier today reflect a strong 4th-quarter finish to a record-breaking 2024. In a year of transition and significant transformation for Xylem, the team served our customers and communities with discipline and delivered on our commitments and the results show their impact. Full-year revenue, EBITDA margins and EPS all set new benchmarks for us. Revenue grew 6%, we expanded EBITDA margins 170 basis-points and EPS was up double-digits for the year. The team's operating discipline was apparent across all segments. And the integration of Evoqua is delivering cost synergies significantly faster-than-expected.

In a moment, I'll ask Bill to drill down on the 4th-quarter, but the headline numbers reflect a big finish to a big year. The team executed well on resilient underlying demand with all segments delivering Q4 orders growth of mid-single digits or better. That has given us great pace coming into the new year. We anticipate demand will continue to be healthy overall through 2025 despite uncertain dynamics in a few end-markets and regions. The team is doing a great job managing what we can control and is committed to the transformation of Xylem we began in 2024, enabling us to improve focus, increase our speed and drive accountable execution. The transformation is behind our 8-K filing last week, which follows through on our discussion at Investor Day, when we indicated our intent to simplify Xylem's operating model. We're moving from a matrix to a structure with a single axis, our segments.

The plan streamlines our organization, which will strengthen our competitive positioning, enable us to better serve our customers. We've also taken several targeted capital deployment actions since our last earnings call, all aimed at optimizing our portfolio for growth and profitability. In December, we increased our stake in Adrica to a majority ownership and management control of the technology platform at the heart of Xylem View, which is a strategic growth priority for us as utilities continue to digitize. We also acquired a few tuck-ins to enhance our offerings in Water Solutions and services and water infrastructure. Finally, just last month, we find signed a definitive agreement to divest a non-core business that came with the acquisition of Evoqua and represents about 1% of revenue.

As our 2024 performance indicates, transforming our operating model has energized the enterprise, and that's reflected in the 2025 guidance we issued earlier today, which is in-line with delivering the long-term framework we committed to last May. Before we go into more detail on that full-year outlook, I'm going to ask Bill to unpack the team's 4th-quarter performance, which provides the foundation for our momentum into 2025. Bill?

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Thanks, Matthew. Please turn to Slide 5. As Matthew mentioned, we are very pleased with the strong finish to 2024. The team stayed focused and consistently delivered throughout the year, exceeding on our expectations, delivering record revenue, EBITDA and earnings per share for the 4th-quarter and the full-year.

Demand remains positive with our ending backlog of $5.1 billion, essentially flat from the prior year, driven by progress executing at MCS and their past-due backlog, but offset in-part by growth across the other three segments. Our book-to-bill ratio was near one in the quarter and exceeded one in the year. Orders were healthy, up 7% in the quarter, driven by strong performance across all segments with Water Infrastructure leading the way with 10% orders growth. Revenue growth was robust, up 7% in the quarter despite a challenging comp of 9% growth in the same-period last year. The team's operational discipline delivered quarterly EBITDA margin of 21%, up 140 basis-points from the prior year. This improvement was driven by productivity, price and volume more than offsetting inflation and investments. We also achieved a record EPS of $1.18, surpassing the midpoint of our guidance by $0.05 and marking a 19% increase over the prior year. Our balance sheet remains in great shape with net-debt to adjusted EBITDA at 0.5 times.

Year-to-date free-cash flow increased by 29% from the prior year. The conversion rate of 116% was driven by higher net income, offset by higher net working capital and increased capex. Working capital efficiency in the quarter was negatively impacted by timing of sales, but our overall performance for the year was strong. Let's turn to Slide 6. In Measurement and Control Solutions, we continue to convert the backlog. Though total MCS backlog remained at roughly $1.9 billion, in-line with the prior quarter. This is a 13% organic decrease from the prior year, driven by smart metering conversion. Orders were up 6%, driven by smart metering and analytics demand. Revenue was up 6%, again, driven by smart metering demand and backlog execution. EBITDA margin of 17.1% was 120 basis-points lower than prior year, driven by mix, inflation and investments more than offsetting productivity, price and volume. As expected, there was a sequential margin headwind for mix in the quarter as energy meters accounted for a larger portion of sales. In Water Infrastructure, orders were up 10% in the quarter with strong demand in transport. Revenue increased 8%, driven by treatment and transport demand across most regions. EBITDA margin for Water Infrastructure was up an outstanding 360 basis-points.

Productivity, price, mix and volume more than offset inflation and investments. In Applied Water, orders were up 5% and book-to-bill was roughly 1%, lifted by large project wins in the US and strength in Europe. As expected, revenues were essentially flat to prior year, primarily driven by softness in emerging markets. Segment EBITDA margin increased 60 basis-points year-over-year. Productivity, mix and price more than offset higher inflation, lower volumes and other costs. Finally, Water Solutions and Services saw robust demand with orders increasing 8%, driven by strength in capital projects and dewatering. Revenue growth was up strong at 11% with strength in capital projects, dewatering and services.

Growth was also fueled by projects coming online faster than anticipated as we enter the quarter. Segment EBITDA margins was 22.8%, up 10 basis-points versus prior year, driven by productivity, price and volume, more than offsetting inflation, investments and mix. Now let's turn to Slide 7 for our 2025 segment outlook. Before I go through our overall guidance, I want to highlight that we have not factored in any impact for the recently inactive tariffs by the US administration. At this time, we do not believe that there will have a material impact on our full-year 2025 results, but it is obviously a fluid situation and we will update our guidance accordingly as we learn more. Heading into 2025, our markets remain positive and our teams are delivering on our commitment to simplify Xylem, focus on our customers and expand margins.

We are providing full-year organic revenue guidance for the segments that is largely in-line with our long-term framework. In MCS, we expect growth of high-single-digits. We are seeing some pockets of softness in Europe, but overall demand is still healthy and our pipeline is strong. Our expectation is energy meteors will drive a majority of the growth in 2025 and water meters will grow low-single digits. We expect to see sequential revenue improvements throughout the year, supported by a backlog and easier comps. In Water Infrastructure, we expect growth of mid-single digits.

We anticipate resilient opex demand due to the mission-critical nature of our applications and solid capex demand. Healthy utility end-markets across most regions, Evoqua synergies and price capture will drive strong growth in the year. However, as expected, we will see headwinds from 80/20 actions as we simplify Water Infrastructure's offerings and we do expect weakness in China's utility market. In Applied Water, we expect modest growth of low-single digits. We see growth across developed markets, particularly in the US with large projects coming online and a general recovery in their end-markets. Growth will be offset in Applied Water as well by 80/20 actions as we exit unprofitable businesses.

WSS growth is expected to be mid-single digits, driven by strength in outsourced water projects and solid demand in dewatering. This segment is supported by a $1 billion backlog and strong funnel activity across all of their businesses. Now let's turn to Slide 8 for our full-year 2025 and Q1 guidance. The growth outlook by segment translates to full-year revenue of $8.6 billion to $8.7 billion, resulting in revenue growth of 0% to 2% and organic revenue growth of 3% to 4%. This is on the low-end of our long-term framework due to the 80/20 actions we are taking across our segments that will be a larger impact in early phases of implementation. EBITDA margin is expected to be 21.3% to 21.8%. This represents 70 to 120 basis-points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price more than offsetting inflation than our investments in the business.

We will also benefit from our simplification efforts, which help to mitigate mix pressure from MCS. This yields an EPS range of $4.50 to $4.70, up 8% at the midpoint over the prior year. FX will be a meaningful headwind in the year, and excluding those impacts, EPS growth will be double-digits at the midpoint. As a reminder, we are committed to low double-digit free-cash flow margin in our long-term financial framework. However, cash-flow will be impacted in 2025 by our recently-announced restructuring actions that may drop us slightly below our long-term goals.

Drilling down on the first-quarter, we anticipate revenue growth will be in the 0% to 2% range on a reported basis and 1% to 2% organically. We expect first-quarter EBITDA margin to be approximately 19.5% to 20%, up 30 to 80 basis-points, driven by higher volumes, price realization and productivity gains, as well as impacts from our simplification efforts. We do want to note that MCS EBITDA margin will be down year-over-year, driven by the energy and water mix we highlighted earlier, but will be up sequentially from Q4. This yields first-quarter EPS of $0.93 to $0.98. We are entering the year with momentum and in a position of strength.

Our balanced outlook reflects our strong commercial position, the durability of our portfolio and benefits from our simplification efforts. While we also continue to monitor broader market conditions and volatility, including potential new or additional tariffs and fluctuations at FX. Regarding tariffs, we are ready to take additional price actions as-needed to offset any increases and take cost actions to mitigate the impact on our margins. Overall, our expectations for the year remain positive as we build-on our strong momentum.

With that, please turn to Slide nine and I'll turn the call-back over to Matthew for closing comments.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Thanks, Bill. We spend a lot more time looking-forward than back, but the full-year results do offer a moment for reflection and appreciation. We had a smooth leadership transition coming into 2024 and then we spent the year digging in and frankly getting a lot more done. The results tell a great story, but not the whole story. What we've accomplished in just one year is a huge credit to our colleagues around the world. They've delivered for our customers at the same time is doing the difficult work of deep change. I really appreciate how the team has leaned in and embraced our transformation as an energizing challenge.

Earlier, I spoke about simplification and taking complexity out of our structure. That work on structure goes hand-in-hand with refining our operating model more broadly, sharpening our high-impact culture, streamlining our processes and systems and optimizing our portfolio with targeted capital deployment. At the same time, we've amplified our commitments on sustainability, raising the bar again with our 2030 sustainability targets. And in 2024 alone, the team responded to more than 40 water-related disasters serving communities in times of crisis from India to Spain to the Carolinas to Brazil.

Together, the team is transforming Xylem to be better-positioned to fulfill on our purpose, to empower our customers and communities to build a more water secure world. In 2025, our transformation initiatives will improve our profitability, further optimize our portfolio and make it easier for customers to do business with Xylem. We know this kind of transformation takes time and may not happen in a straight-line. But we've made a great start. We have an outstanding team, the right strategy and privileged positions in attractive markets. Building on the progress we made in 2024, we're looking ahead to a strong 2025 and delivering on our long-term commitment to profitable growth and sustainable value-creation.

With that, operator, I'll turn the call-back over to you for questions.

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Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick-up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and the follow-up. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Dean Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go-ahead.

Deane Dray
Analyst at RBC Capital

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey, good morning, Dane. Maybe we can start with the restructuring announcement. And just based upon your Analyst Day last year, you knew that there was -- this was a next step coming. And maybe it would be helpful if you kind of gave more color on the plan. Is it all SG&A? It seems like it's headcount, what's the mix between North-America outside of North-America and maybe some payback expectations.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Yeah, I'll start us off and I'll let Bill get into some of those details in terms of the timing and geography and things of that nature. But I just want to say these actions, however necessary mean that value colleagues are leaving Xylem. And we don't take that lightly. We're going to make sure we have ensure a smooth transition and that colleagues are treated respectfully and fairly. So I want to start there. To your point, Dean, the plan is consistent with our '24 Investor Day in May, really about taking complexity out of our business, which includes not only simplifying our structure, but really the implementation of 80/20. It's a little bit of both in terms of the 8-K filing, the structure and the bottoms-up we've done from the initial 80/20 work.

We are focused on reducing that complexity, making it easier for our colleagues to do their job, but also making it easier for our customers to do business with us. And we've already seen here in the back-half of '24 and as we enter '25, the organization is moving much faster, they're definitely more focused and we have much more end-to-end accountability. Maybe one other point I would call-out is this is in-service of growth. And you know, at the same time, we're doing this work, it does allow us to redeploy our resources and our effort across the business to focus on eight customers. And in many cases through 80/20, we have been moving some of our B customers to channel partners that can better serve them and be more efficient. So the majority of the workforce reductions are expected to be complete in 2025 with some of them moving into 2026, subject to local laws, but maybe I'll pause there and let Bill give you a little bit more color on some of the numbers.

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah. And just to level-set everyone, for those who didn't see it, as we highlighted in our 8-K last week, we expect to incur total pre-tax charges of approximately $95 million to $115 million. We incurred some initial costs in Q4, but the bulk of the remaining expense will be realized in 2025 and early '26. We expect to realize about $130 million of net benefits for the program over the next two years with about $75 million of the benefit coming in 2025. The timing of the benefits will be more back-half weighted as we work-through the labor negotiations and different processes around the globe as Matthew mentioned. So think of it as kind of 30% first-half, 70% second-half. Again, these actions are going to impact all of our segments and corporate functions with water infrastructure and Applied water having the two largest impacts in Europe, probably the most impacted region. The plan is impacts a little bit less than 10% of our workforce and is mostly concentrated in SG&A.

Deane Dray
Analyst at RBC Capital

Great. I appreciate all those -- those details. That's a big help. And then the second question on related, just given the administration change, there's some anxiety about potential rollbacks of PFAS. We saw a halt of a industrial PFAS test that -- just what's your expectation here? I realize PFAS is not in your framework that was made very clear at your Analyst Day, but just the understanding on and how -- what might be done differently from the industrial side versus drinking water side, but I'd love to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Thanks. Yeah. I mean, to your point, I'll just echo, we didn't have any PFAS regulatory impact in our guide or in the LRP. For municipal or industrial, industrial is the one that was still kind of a draft rule. And that specific draft rule, and I think you mentioned this recently in a note Dean was dropped with the Trump executive order to pause all regulations. And it was -- I think it was aimed largely at the chemical industry and really designed to set an affluent limitation or guideline for PFAS chemical manufacturers. So I would say that this has no impact on the drinking water regulation that when that rule went final last year. And maybe a comment I would make.

I'd say Lee Zelden recently stated in his confirmation testimony for EPA, Head of EPA that he would be an advocate for PFAS cleanup. So it will be kind of a wait-and-see when it comes to the industrial side, but we don't see any rollback of the municipal side. And I think the Trump administration, as a lot of people know, were the ones that initially started the PFAS regulation for municipal drinking water in the first-term. So in general, we're -- we're still bullish on PFAS. We know that the timing is going to push-out. But you know, states as we've talked about in the past, have taken action of their own.

And then specifically on the industrial side, Dean, we've seen a few states, specifically Georgia recently set standards for industrial affluence. So it will be a little bit of a tailwind from a state-by-state basis. But from a federal perspective, you know, the industrial side will probably push-out, but the muni side is still tracking.

Operator

The next question comes from Mike with Baird. Please go-ahead.

Mike Halloran
Analyst at Robert W. Baird

Good morning, everyone.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Good morning, Mike.

Mike Halloran
Analyst at Robert W. Baird

So first on the MCS side, maybe just talk through how you think about the margin progression through the year. I know you said sequentially improves through the year. What are we thinking for an exit-rate or an approximate exit-rate, all else equal, once mix normalizes and given all the restructuring things you're doing? And then on a related basis, maybe just talk through what you expect to see in the end-markets through the year that give you confidence in that high single-digit margin? Because I know some of it's backlog, but I have to imagine some of it's what your customers are saying front log, stuff like that too.

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah, maybe I'll take the first shot. So if we start just with the Q4 margin performance and first just highlight, again, that's really related to the mix-shift between water and energy. There's a couple -- few small one-timers, but fundamentally mix is the biggest driver of the year-over-year decline. We talked about that last quarter, you know and highlighted that. Then I think we need to just talk about the adjustment period over the next couple of quarters as we do go from less water meter customer volume as every phase their deployment schedules, continue to work with our partners and customers to get home access and labor scheduling nailed down, we've said that with one to two quarters, it's probably closer to 3/4, inclusive of Q4.

And this is going to shift that balance of sale towards the energy meters that we saw in Q4 and expect that through the first-half of the year. And then I just want to make sure, again, from the full-year perspective, MCS margins were phenomenal, right? They're up 370 basis-points last year. And some of those core elements we will see next year as they continue to capture strong price. The teams continues to drive solid productivity. Obviously, with this restructuring actions, they're going to get some benefit. Mix is probably the only thing that's an outlier relative to our short-term margin expansion journey for them. We said, I think Q4 is probably the bottom. They'll sequentially improve through the year as mix normalizes, some of the impact from the restructuring starts to take hold. And for the full-year, we will see expanded margins. First-half there's a little bit of contraction, but then we'll see significant expansion in the back-half with net-net, 2025 will exit at a higher-rate than '24.

Mike Halloran
Analyst at Robert W. Baird

Yeah. And then the second part of the question was just how you help me get to the high single single-digit organic guide and what that means from a customer perspective?

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah. So overall demand is still healthy, right? That team has a very strong pipeline. We've won a couple of verbal awards that we haven't just received in the backlog yet. Really, Europe is the only place we've seen some softness, but the fundamentals across the majority of the business are still solid. Yeah, we're kind of a long way to go in the AMI adoption curve. Really, the short-term noise is just along this project rephhasing.

And just to remind everyone, right, the North American water business over the last two years has grown 30% per year, which is absolutely phenomenal relative to our peer set-in that market. So as we look to next year, again, the energy meters relative to the refresh that they're going through will grow at a significant rate close to 40% is the refresh cycle and we've had a couple of projects in backlog that we have full visibility to with defined ship dates. And then on-the-water side, relative to the backlog phasing that we have and in-line of sight of customer projects that we've won that have yet to just get into our backlog, we're pretty confident in the ramp that we'll see there in the back-half.

But again, on-the-water meter side, kind of low-single digits and energy being the significant driver of growth.

Operator

The next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go-ahead.

Nathan Jones
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Good morning, everyone.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Hey, good morning, Nathan.

Nathan Jones
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

I wanted to go back and follow-up on some of Dane's questions on the restructuring. I think you said $75 million that you'll realize in benefits in 2025, which is about 90 basis-points of margin expansion and kind of accounts for all of the margin expansion you're expecting at the midpoint of the guidance for 2025, you do get some organic growth, there should be some simplification benefits, there should be some pricing and other productivity benefits. Maybe you can just help fill-in the gaps there on what the headwinds are that doesn't actually have margins up a little bit more with the benefit of this restructuring.

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah, yeah. No, the simple walk, Nate, here is, if we look at roughly the midpoint of 100 basis-points, our productivity and price are more than offsetting all of our material and labor inflation as well as our continued investment in the business, giving us about 50 basis-points of expansion with that group. Then to your point, we're getting the benefit of our restructuring actions and the balance of the Evoqua synergies gives us about another 125 basis-points of favorability. So about 175 basis-points there. But then the biggest piece in the math is really the negative mix within MCS that puts about 75 basis-points of pressure again due to that energy and water mix-shift netting out to the 100 basis-points.

Nathan Jones
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Yeah. That's helpful. And I guess then, you're still pretty early in the 80/20 rollout and I wouldn't imagine that this restructuring program gets you to the end-state that you're looking for. Are you able to comment on the potential to see or opportunities to do some more restructuring in '26 or '27 or whenever you get through this and start looking at the next round?

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Yeah. I would say that the announcement in the 8-K does roll into 2026. So some of that's baked into that initial announcement in the 8-K. I would just maybe highlight that, you know, part of this 8-K was focused on our operating structure and part of it was 80/20 and it was really driven by the kind of first wave of 80/20 with predominantly focused on our legacy Xylem business with a lot more focus on Applied water and water infrastructure and a little bit on MNCS. So obviously, we didn't get through the entire segment. I think we talked about having about 40% of the business kind of exiting '24 fully through the tool. And through the first-quarter of this year, we'll have about 70% of the business. So absolutely, there's going to be more opportunity as we continue to really optimize the portfolio and the customer -- customer line simplification. So this is a journey. We need to move from a -- we talked about a transformation, it's really developing a transformative mindset in the business and that means you're kind of never done optimizing. So for sure, there'll be more things that we look at over-time?

Operator

The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go-ahead.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Hey, good morning, Andy.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Matt or Bill, can you give a little more color into the bookings environment that you're seeing and maybe some of the cyclical headwinds in the emerging markets and/or in Applied Water that you've seen and when they might turn orders up 7%, obviously seems solid in Q4. Would you expect that kind of order strength to continue into '25? And it looks like you're predicting a modest turn-in Applied Water. Can you talk about the visibility into that?

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah. Yeah. I think orders in the 4th-quarter overall for all of our segments was extremely strong. So we're continuing to be pleased with the commercial momentum we have across all of our businesses. Specific to Applied water, yes, they'll be back to growth in 2025. Yeah, we do see momentum across the developed markets, particularly in the US. They continue to have some larger project wins that we realized through 2024, a lot of those will be coming online. And then just a general recovery in a lot of their end-markets after a fairly challenging year.

We did talk about growth will be offset a little bit by some of our 80/20 actions exiting unprofitable businesses. As we really look for Applied Water to simplify their product portfolio and geographic presence, to your point, they have seen some challenges in emerging markets, really where we want to leverage our technology and specific applications to win in those markets and then double down on our core here in our developed markets with our largest customers through some new technologies and better overall operating performance. So Applied back to growth, you know, with a little bit of pressure from some of the 80/20 actions. But even on the 80/20 side, I think the incremental pricing they're getting from that tool set is really positive. So bottom-line performance for them in 2025 will be really strong.

Andy Kaplowitz
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Very helpful. And then it appears Xylem passed on some large water assets that were available for a while, but you do have a very strong balance sheet. So how are you thinking about M&A right now versus other methods of deploying repurchases? How should we think about ultimately what happens here? And obviously, you talked about the majority ownership in Entrica, what does that mean for you moving forward?

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Yeah. Yeah, thanks, Andy. First, I just want to say how proud I am of the team's execution on the integration of Evoqua. I don't want to skip over that. I mean, that was a big transaction and we've delivered 18 months early in our cost synergies. So we've built a lot of muscle and actually that muscle has translated well into our operating model transformation. We formed a transformation management office largely for some of that team that did the Evoqua integration into Xylem. You know, as Andy, as we laid out in Investor Day, we want to be more consistent deployers of capital and helping to move us to the mid-teens EPS over the long-range plan. We talked about we'd be optimizing the portfolio, whether that divestitures or just excess of products or business lines through 80/20 that are underperforming or no longer fit.

One thing I'd highlight, and I might have mentioned this on the last call, but we put in-place a very strong kind of acquisition committee process and it's a much more strong bottoms-up process to drive more consistency and help us gain momentum. Obviously, we want to deploy capital, obviously to our core. But second to that, we want to do accretive M&A. And we'll do opportunistic share buybacks if needed, but really we want to be consistent deployers of capital. And hopefully, you're starting to see this as we exit 2024 and you know, to your earlier point, we're going to remain disciplined. And we're also going to be very aligned to our strategy and the value mapping work that we completed last year.

So that's a little bit on capital deployment. And in terms of Adrica, you know, we signed that -- signed and closed that in Q4 and moved our ownership to majority, so we could more deeply integrate and rationalize the R&D investments of that joint-venture and with the legacy Xylem business. And quite frankly, leverage the platform across as a standard for Xylem to help us be more efficient. We have a lot of confidence in the platform and its ability to solve a lot of our customers' biggest pain point, which is trying to manage their data in application management. So I think that's a really good fit for us and a lot of good momentum in that acquisition.

Operator

The next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go-ahead.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Hey, good morning, guys.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Hey, good morning, Scott.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Guys, I wasn't -- maybe I missed it. Is it fair to assume that the 80-20 headwind is about 2 points. Does that sound kind of ballpark? If you said it, I apologize, I didn't hear it.

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

No, no, we didn't. It's a little less than two points.

Scott Davis
Analyst at Melius Research

Okay. And then just to take a step backwards, you know, Matthew, when you joined on-time deliveries was kind of when it went through kind of a dark day, I had to get to the other side of it. Where do you stand now on on-time deliveries and maybe just some context to where do you stand now and perhaps where do you think you'll be in a year? Assuming you're not where you want to be now.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

It's a great question. I just did a tour of North American factories a couple of weeks ago. And the two biggest thing I focus on, Scott, is quality and on-time performance. If you do those things right and you have a great product with a fair price, you're going to win. And so we have made improvements in on-time performance. It's only going to get better through 80/20 because 80/20 will help us simplify our factories and have better flow and just better execution. We've already started to see it happen. We don't really get into quoting our on-time delivery, but I would just say that we probably over the course of 2024, made a 500 basis-point improvement. And we have about, I would say, 700, 50 basis-points to 700 basis-points more to go to hit our kind of what I would call our entitlement of where we think best-in-class is. And if I look at our roadmap and our KPIs, we will come close to that this year so we're keenly focused on that metric.

Operator

Yeah. The next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go-ahead.

Brian Lee
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess one on the free-cash flow. I know you're talking about this kind of being a little bit of a softer year. If I back into it, I mean, you've given us a conversion targets in the past. I think this year implying around maybe 70% to 80%. So one, is that kind of a fair range to be thinking about? And then two, what are some of the biggest factors here in '25 that you have visibility or confidence around you know, we'll revert back-in '26 and is the target for '26 to be back to that 100% or higher free-cash flow conversion

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah, I think, again, a little bit in the prepared remarks is really the largest of negative factors, the cost of the restructuring program weighing on overall cash flows. We highlighted a little bit too, we've got some larger build-on operates that's going to -- that will aid our top-line and bottom-line, but some upfront capital associated with them will impact. And then lastly, as we continue to improve our systems across the organization, some incremental investments to support that activity. Those are the three biggest things with the restructuring being the 80 out of that?

Brian Lee
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

All right, fair enough. And then I know you mentioned also in the prepared remarks, you're not factoring in any tariff impacts. You're not expecting anything at the moment. Just to kind of level-set us. I know none of the dust has settled here, obviously, but just as we think about your potential exposures, can you sort of walk us through some of your key kind of geos where you do have either supply-chain or procurement exposure to some of the regions that are being talked about in terms of being potentially impacted by tariffs. Thank you.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Yeah, I'll start us off and turn it over to Bill to get into some of the numbers. But we don't believe that tariffs will have a material impact on our full-year results for 2025. Our teams were ready and sprung into action yesterday to help offset the tariff increases. And we were out, obviously with our China increase, we had to pull-back on a couple of others that we thought will be going out yesterday that we were quick to take action and we have taken action with regards to China. And we're obviously, we're moving and mobilizing our supply-chain where possible to make sure that we're taking advantage of second sources. We spent a lot of time over the past two to three years on diversifying our supply-chain, especially as we look at Asia. And then lastly, just making sure that we're buttoned up on discretionary costs to mitigate any impact.

So the teams are ready and we've taken some action with regard to the China tariff. Yeah. We'll continue to monitor the situation over the next 30 days and see what comes with Canada and Mexico and obviously monitor our customers and our channel partners and just try to understand how this may or may not impact their order patterns. So that's something that we'll keep a close watch on. So maybe I'll pause there and turn it over to Bill just to give a little color on the numbers.

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

So if we look at, let's just Call-IT the proposed tariffs for Canada and for Mexico and the enacted for China, they impact about 5% of our material costs as a percentage of sales. Yeah, the Canadian tariff impact is really negligible. And to Matthew's point, the team has done a phenomenal job post-COVID, lessening our dependency on supply from China. The supply-chain there is really just for in-country production. The Mexico tariff is the 80 for us and primarily impacts MCS and Applied water. Again, both segments are taking appropriate actions to mitigate the impact on our customers and on our bottom-line. So I think we're well-positioned. It's obviously a very fluid situation. So we're keeping a close eye on it and taking any and every action necessary to mitigate the impact.

Operator

Yeah? The next question comes from Andrew with BNP. Please go-ahead.

Andrew Buscaglia
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Hey, good morning guys.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Hey, good morning, Andy.

Andrew Buscaglia
Analyst at BNP Paribas

I just wanted to check on your Water Solutions had a really good quarter. I'm just curious what the trends are in that segment. I know that can be pretty lumpy, but what do you see going into the first portion of the year? And then you had a couple of months-to digest President Trump and his new EPA pick. And obviously, treatment can be influenced by some policy there. Could you just talk a little bit specifically what you guys think of this new administration and how it pertains to Water Solutions.

William Grogan
Chief Financial Officer at Xylem

Yeah, maybe I'll hit WSS first. I mean, Q4 was really the of Q3. The projects that customers were waffling on timing, you ended-up starting or progressing a lot faster than we had anticipated. Yeah, we knew there was a chance of this happening, but low enough probability they didn't want to build it into the expectations for the quarter. Again, to your point, I think it's worth-mentioning that we are seeing an increased demand for outsourced water solutions and sometimes that can drive some lumpiness in WSS' performance where there's an revenue stream associated with the build-out of the system before we get the long-tail of recurring revenue.

So as we build that business, it can be quarter-to-quarter some variations before things smooth out as that business builds over-time. But going into next year, I think we're expecting another strong year from WSS. As they continue to leverage synergies with the combined portfolio, the watering had a very strong year in 2024 and we look for that to continue next year. Again, the outsourced water projects, the funnel is extremely strong and we have line-of-sight to some larger wins here later in the year. So I think we're excited about what that -- that segment has only been in effect for one year and the combination is really delivering some strong consistent performance.

So maybe I'll turn it over to Matthew to talk about the regulatory environment.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Yes. So maybe I'll just start by saying we operate in a sector where there's from my perspective, strong bipartisan consensus regarding the need for safe, clean, affordable water services. So on a number of issues, we see strong support on both sides of the aisle. We anticipate that water infrastructure funding will likely remain at kind of the historical norms. And we do checks, obviously with the several utilities in the US and we've confirmed continued opex and capex spending increases into 2025 to improve a significant aging infrastructure in the US. We'll stay close to our government affairs team, myself and some other key leaders, we're going to stay close to the incoming administration as they take their new positions. And we'll just keep a close eye to them and we've had great relationships. And with regard to Lee Zeld and I mentioned earlier on Dean's question that you know, water remains a key priority for him and the administration. And again, in his nomination hearing, he did talk about PFAS and the need to make that a top priority. So I'd say net-net, we're pretty positive on the new administration's focus on water and we'll continue to drive those relationships to make sure we understand it.

Andrew Buscaglia
Analyst at BNP Paribas

Yeah. All right. Thank you guys.

Matthew Pine
Chief Executive Officer at Xylem

Thank you. Okay, we'll wrap it up there. Thanks for your questions and thank you to everyone who joined today. And as always, we appreciate your interest in Xylem, all the best.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Corporate Executives
  • Keith Buettner
    Investor Relations
  • Matthew Pine
    Chief Executive Officer
  • William Grogan
    Chief Financial Officer

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